|
Title: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: DrScholl on April 23, 2014, 08:27:24 AM http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/04/23/upshot/24upshot-south-poll.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0#
AR Sen Pryor: 46 Cotton: 36 KY Sen McConnell 44 ALG 43 (McConnell at 40/51 approve/disapprove, Beshear at 56/29) LA Sen Landrieu 42 Cassidy 18 (Jungle poll) (Landrieu's at 49/45 approve/disapprove.) NC Sen Hagan 42 Tillis 40 Hagan 41 Brannon 39 (Hagan at 44/44 approval.) Glorious news! Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on April 23, 2014, 08:35:24 AM Too bad for Cotton, if there is no AR, there is no GOP takeover. I do believe that ALG will win.
Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: Potatoe on April 23, 2014, 08:36:55 AM Shame that Grimes is down 1, but hopefully we can overcome McConnell.
Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: bballrox4717 on April 23, 2014, 08:43:38 AM I am so confused by Pryor and Landrieu's leads but so happy nevertheless.
Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: Gass3268 on April 23, 2014, 08:51:03 AM What happened in Arkansas?
Excellent News! Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: windjammer on April 23, 2014, 08:52:22 AM What happened in Arkansas? Excellent News! Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: Tender Branson on April 23, 2014, 08:53:50 AM The polls were done by Kaiser Family Foundation.
I know that they are usually polling healthcare-related stuff. Have they ever polled political races before ? If not, I would be somewhat sceptical of these results. NC and KY are certainly in line with other polls, AR maybe a bit too high for Pryor (but he has definitely improved). Cassidy seems to be too low in LA, but why didn't they poll the run-off (unlikely that Landrieu gets 50+ in the 1st round) ? Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: moderatevoter on April 23, 2014, 09:10:05 AM Okay two things being speculated on twitter:
1) Kaiser apparently has done polling on ACA before, and generally has slightly more positive numbers for ACA than most. 2) There are questions whether this sample polled all adults, even those who aren't registered to vote, which could explain the fishy presidential vote sample. At this point, Landrieu's number in LA seems okay, KY seems about right, NC seems in like with what we've been seeing. I think Pryor is up by 3ish in Arkansas, but 10 is hard for me to believe. Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: Tender Branson on April 23, 2014, 09:16:17 AM 2) There are questions whether this sample polled all adults, even those who aren't registered to vote, which could explain the fishy presidential vote sample. They polled all adults in the states, but for the election questions they only polled RV. The "presidential vote" question is of all adults, that's why it includes a high share of "I didn't vote/can't remember". You need to remember that voter turnout in KY, AR and LA was very low, therefore more than 1/3 who say they didn't vote ... Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: DrScholl on April 23, 2014, 09:18:32 AM This is the second poll to have Pryor up big, so something is happening in that race that is shifting it back toward Pryor's direction. That much is evident.
Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on April 23, 2014, 10:12:07 AM This is the second poll to have Pryor up big, so something is happening in that race that is shifting it back toward Pryor's direction. That much is evident. I think it's because people think Cotton is just too extreme. The idea that he's a Tea Party guy is actually sinking in. Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: windjammer on April 23, 2014, 10:14:58 AM This is the second poll to have Pryor up big, so something is happening in that race that is shifting it back toward Pryor's direction. That much is evident. I think it's because people think Cotton is just too extreme. The idea that he's a Tea Party guy is actually sinking in. Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: Kevin on April 23, 2014, 10:37:30 AM Okay two things being speculated on twitter: 1) Kaiser apparently has done polling on ACA before, and generally has slightly more positive numbers for ACA than most. 2) There are questions whether this sample polled all adults, even those who aren't registered to vote, which could explain the fishy presidential vote sample. At this point, Landrieu's number in LA seems okay, KY seems about right, NC seems in like with what we've been seeing. I think Pryor is up by 3ish in Arkansas, but 10 is hard for me to believe. Given that there is over 7 months left in this race these are still bad numbers for any to be at since all them are well below 50% and have mediocre approvals overall. I actually take these numbers as esp concerning for the Democrats given the larger picture mixed in with their current numbers. As all of the incumbent Senators polled in this survey are from Southern states where Obama and his party are both deeply unpopular. Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: Lief 🗽 on April 23, 2014, 10:48:35 AM Dominating. The Democrats will sweep the South.
Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on April 23, 2014, 10:57:05 AM What happened in Arkansas? Excellent News! It's not about supporting Pryor, it's about making those 6 seats that little-bit harder for the GOP. Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: windjammer on April 23, 2014, 11:01:53 AM What happened in Arkansas? Excellent News! It's not about supporting Pryor, it's about making those 6 seats that little-bit harder for the GOP. Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: Gass3268 on April 23, 2014, 12:08:12 PM What happened in Arkansas? Excellent News! It's not about supporting Pryor, it's about making those 6 seats that little-bit harder for the GOP. I mean, if we could primary Pryor, get someone more to the left and still win the seat, I would be all in favor of that. We all know that's not possible. Even though Pryor is one of my least favorite Democrats, he's still better than Cotton and any other Republican in the Senate. That's pretty much by reasoning. Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: JerryArkansas on April 23, 2014, 12:23:36 PM These polls suck a lot, at least arkansas. Pryor ahead by 10, that is funny.
Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: RogueBeaver on April 23, 2014, 12:24:47 PM These polls suck a lot, at least arkansas. Pryor ahead by 10, that is funny. Jerry, have you seen far more Dem than GOP ads? Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: JerryArkansas on April 23, 2014, 12:37:10 PM No, they are about the same. I have however seen no positive democratic ads while I have seen several positive Republican ads.
Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: IceSpear on April 23, 2014, 12:51:27 PM Despite being one of the few who always called AR a toss up unlike many who hopped on the bandwagon of "Pryor will meet the same fate as Blanche Lincoln blah blah", I'm still surprised by how well he's doing in recent polls. Exactly what has changed in the past month that is responsible for this?
Also, I wonder why they didn't poll the runoff in LA. Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: SPC on April 23, 2014, 01:45:20 PM Also, I wonder why they didn't poll the runoff in LA. Perhaps their client didn't like the results? Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on April 23, 2014, 01:46:33 PM Perhaps their client didn't like the results? Nah, the New York Times isn't that right-wing, compared to the rest of the media. Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: SPC on April 23, 2014, 02:06:48 PM Perhaps their client didn't like the results? Nah, the New York Times isn't that right-wing, compared to the rest of the media. I was referring to Kaiser, who would have an incentive to show good numbers for candidates in favor of the individual mandate. Regardless of one's opinions of the New York Times, I think the last few election cycles show public polls to be fairly reputable. Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: ElectionsGuy on April 23, 2014, 04:18:03 PM This looks pretty awful. How is Cassidy only getting 18%? Even in the jungle primary, and how is Pryor up 10 on Cotton when McConnell is up 1 on Grimes? This is inconsistent with everything we've seen so far. Although NC and KY polls look OK.
Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: Skill and Chance on April 23, 2014, 05:38:46 PM This looks pretty awful. How is Cassidy only getting 18%? Even in the jungle primary, and how is Pryor up 10 on Cotton when McConnell is up 1 on Grimes? This is inconsistent with everything we've seen so far. Although NC and KY polls look OK. I think there have just been too many polls in a row now to discount that Pryor has rebounded. Even if we have reservations about some of the polls, this has been showing up in Lean D territory in half of them and no one has Cotton up anymore. The same is true in KY, which shows up as a toss-up every time despite the state's lean. My theory is that AR/KY have a lot more people benefiting from Obamacare than nationally because they both have large uninsured populations and well-functioning exchanges. This local success may be propping up the Dem brand there relative to earlier Obama era numbers. Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: GaussLaw on April 23, 2014, 07:08:21 PM ^Interesting thought. I'd like to see ACA favorable/unfavorable ratings in Arkansas and Kentucky.
Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: Miles on April 23, 2014, 07:38:29 PM ^Interesting thought. I'd like to see ACA favorable/unfavorable ratings in Arkansas and Kentucky. AR: 29/62 KY: 35/55 Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: GaussLaw on April 23, 2014, 08:29:17 PM ^Interesting thought. I'd like to see ACA favorable/unfavorable ratings in Arkansas and Kentucky. AR: 29/62 KY: 35/55 Then how can "Skill and Chance"'s arguments work then? Maybe is it that people who liked the ACA felt more strongly about it now, enough to say they will vote D and would pass a likely voter screen? Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: Simfan34 on April 23, 2014, 09:59:26 PM William Kristol writes (http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/why-new-york-times-poll-bogus_787275.html) that the polls' results seem bogus due to the disingenuous responses to the presidential vote question in number 12:
() Looking at these results, one becomes pretty inclined to declare this a rather bad poll. As Kristol rightly points a poll that shows Obama one point behind in Arkansas, when carried Arkansas in 2012 by 24 points. Similarly, the Kentucky sample is +3 Romney when reality was +23. The Louisiana sample is +3 Obama in a state Obama lost by 17, and the North Carolina sample is +7 Obama in a state he lost by 3, he notes. Feel free to dismiss it as "right wing media" but it was noteworthy enough for the BBC to mention it (which is where I read it first (http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-echochambers-27135459)) Nate Cohn writes (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/24/upshot/why-criticism-of-poll-is-misguided.html?rref=upshot&_r=2) that this can be explained by the "well-known bias toward the victor in post-election surveys. Respondents who voted for the loser often say that they don’t remember whom they supported, or say they supported someone else". This seems rather far-fetched to me however, considering polls show Romney victories in hypothetical re-votes and that the President is considerably underwater in the opinion polls, particularly in these states. It would seem the results of this poll, then, cannot amount for much. Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: Talleyrand on April 23, 2014, 10:14:02 PM Why does Atlas see Landrieu pulling off a win or even likely to do so? It would probably require a Dem wave for her to hold on, and the empirical data as of late has shown that she's in worse shape than Pryor.
Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: RogueBeaver on April 23, 2014, 10:19:59 PM Landrieu's skill, money, business support, etc. make her tough to beat. Though I'm cautiously optimistic.
Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: Lief 🗽 on April 23, 2014, 10:48:33 PM William Kristol writes (http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/why-new-york-times-poll-bogus_787275.html) that the polls' results seem bogus due to the disingenuous responses to the presidential vote question in number 12: () Looking at these results, one becomes pretty inclined to declare this a rather bad poll. As Kristol rightly points a poll that shows Obama one point behind in Arkansas, when carried Arkansas in 2012 by 24 points. Similarly, the Kentucky sample is +3 Romney when reality was +23. The Louisiana sample is +3 Obama in a state Obama lost by 17, and the North Carolina sample is +7 Obama in a state he lost by 3, he notes. Feel free to dismiss it as "right wing media" but it was noteworthy enough for the BBC to mention it (which is where I read it first (http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-echochambers-27135459)) Nate Cohn writes (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/24/upshot/why-criticism-of-poll-is-misguided.html?rref=upshot&_r=2) that this can be explained by the "well-known bias toward the victor in post-election surveys. Respondents who voted for the loser often say that they don’t remember whom they supported, or say they supported someone else". This seems rather far-fetched to me however, considering polls show Romney victories in hypothetical re-votes and that the President is considerably underwater in the opinion polls, particularly in these states. It would seem the results of this poll, then, cannot amount for much. The presidential vote question was asked of all adults. The 2014 election questions were asked of only registered voters. Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: MalaspinaGold on April 23, 2014, 11:21:53 PM William Kristol writes (http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/why-new-york-times-poll-bogus_787275.html) that the polls' results seem bogus due to the disingenuous responses to the presidential vote question in number 12: () Looking at these results, one becomes pretty inclined to declare this a rather bad poll. As Kristol rightly points a poll that shows Obama one point behind in Arkansas, when carried Arkansas in 2012 by 24 points. Similarly, the Kentucky sample is +3 Romney when reality was +23. The Louisiana sample is +3 Obama in a state Obama lost by 17, and the North Carolina sample is +7 Obama in a state he lost by 3, he notes. Feel free to dismiss it as "right wing media" but it was noteworthy enough for the BBC to mention it (which is where I read it first (http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-echochambers-27135459)) Nate Cohn writes (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/24/upshot/why-criticism-of-poll-is-misguided.html?rref=upshot&_r=2) that this can be explained by the "well-known bias toward the victor in post-election surveys. Respondents who voted for the loser often say that they don’t remember whom they supported, or say they supported someone else". This seems rather far-fetched to me however, considering polls show Romney victories in hypothetical re-votes and that the President is considerably underwater in the opinion polls, particularly in these states. It would seem the results of this poll, then, cannot amount for much. The presidential vote question was asked of all adults. The 2014 election questions were asked of only registered voters. You have to admit that it is a bit strange to see Romney in the twenties and thirties in states that he won. As for the rest... I've read that post-election, when you ask someone who they voted for, a significant proportion of people who voted for the loser will say they voted for the winner. Something to keep in mind. Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: Simfan34 on April 24, 2014, 01:03:22 AM William Kristol writes (http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/why-new-york-times-poll-bogus_787275.html) that the polls' results seem bogus due to the disingenuous responses to the presidential vote question in number 12: () Looking at these results, one becomes pretty inclined to declare this a rather bad poll. As Kristol rightly points a poll that shows Obama one point behind in Arkansas, when carried Arkansas in 2012 by 24 points. Similarly, the Kentucky sample is +3 Romney when reality was +23. The Louisiana sample is +3 Obama in a state Obama lost by 17, and the North Carolina sample is +7 Obama in a state he lost by 3, he notes. Feel free to dismiss it as "right wing media" but it was noteworthy enough for the BBC to mention it (which is where I read it first (http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-echochambers-27135459)) Nate Cohn writes (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/24/upshot/why-criticism-of-poll-is-misguided.html?rref=upshot&_r=2) that this can be explained by the "well-known bias toward the victor in post-election surveys. Respondents who voted for the loser often say that they don’t remember whom they supported, or say they supported someone else". This seems rather far-fetched to me however, considering polls show Romney victories in hypothetical re-votes and that the President is considerably underwater in the opinion polls, particularly in these states. It would seem the results of this poll, then, cannot amount for much. The presidential vote question was asked of all adults. The 2014 election questions were asked of only registered voters. You have to admit that it is a bit strange to see Romney in the twenties and thirties in states that he won. As for the rest... I've read that post-election, when you ask someone who they voted for, a significant proportion of people who voted for the loser will say they voted for the winner. Something to keep in mind. I mentioned this. Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: MalaspinaGold on April 24, 2014, 01:05:16 AM William Kristol writes (http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/why-new-york-times-poll-bogus_787275.html) that the polls' results seem bogus due to the disingenuous responses to the presidential vote question in number 12: () Looking at these results, one becomes pretty inclined to declare this a rather bad poll. As Kristol rightly points a poll that shows Obama one point behind in Arkansas, when carried Arkansas in 2012 by 24 points. Similarly, the Kentucky sample is +3 Romney when reality was +23. The Louisiana sample is +3 Obama in a state Obama lost by 17, and the North Carolina sample is +7 Obama in a state he lost by 3, he notes. Feel free to dismiss it as "right wing media" but it was noteworthy enough for the BBC to mention it (which is where I read it first (http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-echochambers-27135459)) Nate Cohn writes (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/24/upshot/why-criticism-of-poll-is-misguided.html?rref=upshot&_r=2) that this can be explained by the "well-known bias toward the victor in post-election surveys. Respondents who voted for the loser often say that they don’t remember whom they supported, or say they supported someone else". This seems rather far-fetched to me however, considering polls show Romney victories in hypothetical re-votes and that the President is considerably underwater in the opinion polls, particularly in these states. It would seem the results of this poll, then, cannot amount for much. The presidential vote question was asked of all adults. The 2014 election questions were asked of only registered voters. You have to admit that it is a bit strange to see Romney in the twenties and thirties in states that he won. As for the rest... I've read that post-election, when you ask someone who they voted for, a significant proportion of people who voted for the loser will say they voted for the winner. Something to keep in mind. Well, if you are looking at it that way (and you made a very good point), then it would be reasonable to conclude that in reality the Republican Senate candidates are probably leading in all four states that were polled, because registered voters might say that they voted for Obama even if this was not the case. Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: Tender Branson on April 24, 2014, 01:39:27 AM Simfan, take a look at my "MEGA election 2012 turnout chart":
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=181934.0 Or if you prefer, Prof. McDonald's blog of turnout data (he uses 2011 data for his calculations, whereas I already used the 2012 data from the Census Bureau): http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2012G.html ... AR only had 48% turnout in 2012, relative to it's adult population (VAP). KY had 53%, LA 57% and NC had 60% turnout. Which means that if you have a sample of 1000 adults, where about half has not voted and 60% of those who voted, then you only get some 30% overall for Romney. Of course, Obama's percentage is higher than it should be. Why is that ? Maybe because Southern people are simply liers in these polls: Remember the polls in AR that showed Obama down by only 10-15 points ahead of the election ? Then, in the secrecy of the voting booth, those Southerners are returning to their redneck-voting-behaviour and voted for Romney by over 20 points ... Or people simply don't remember and give false answers, or don't care. And these subsamples usually have high MoE too. SurveyUSA often has very strange crosstabs too, but the overall topline is often very accurate. Title: Re: NY Times polls of four southern states (AR, KY, LA, NC) Post by: windjammer on April 24, 2014, 07:05:11 AM Seriously, Pryor isn't leading by 10. By 3-4 would probably more accurate.
Title: AR: New York Times: Pryor with Lead in Arkansas Post by: ElectionAtlas on May 02, 2014, 07:32:05 AM New Poll: Arkansas Senator by New York Times on 2014-04-15 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5220140415104)
Summary: D: 46%, R: 36%, U: 15% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1146701/polls-in-four-southern-states-april-8-15-2014.pdf) Title: KY: New York Times: Grimes Lead McConnell in Kentucky Post by: ElectionAtlas on May 02, 2014, 07:34:53 AM New Poll: Kentucky Senator by New York Times on 2014-04-15 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=21220140415104)
Summary: D: 43%, R: 44%, U: 11% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1146701/polls-in-four-southern-states-april-8-15-2014.pdf) Title: LA: New York Times: Landrieu with Lead in Louisiana Post by: ElectionAtlas on May 02, 2014, 07:36:42 AM New Poll: Louisiana Senator by New York Times on 2014-04-15 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=22220140415104)
Summary: D: 42%, R: 18%, U: 27% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1146701/polls-in-four-southern-states-april-8-15-2014.pdf) Title: NC: New York Times: Close Senate Race in North Carolina Post by: ElectionAtlas on May 02, 2014, 07:39:59 AM New Poll: North Carolina Senator by New York Times on 2014-04-15 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=37220140415104)
Summary: D: 42%, R: 40%, U: 14% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1146701/polls-in-four-southern-states-april-8-15-2014.pdf) |