Talk Elections

47 - 42 percent over Ohio Gov. John Kasich (+5)
48 - 41 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin (+7)
47 - 40 percent over U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida (+7)
49 - 41 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky (+8)
46 - 38 percent over N.J. Gov. Christopher Christie (+8)
49 - 41 percent over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (+8)
48 - 39 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (+9)
51 - 37 percent over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas (+14)

From May 7 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,174 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2042

I'd give anything for a Cruz/Palin ticket.

So Clinton does better in Florida than in Ohio (except against Bush).

I can't wait to hear Republicans cheering about how they trail by "only" 5-14 points in Ohio, since they trailed by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.

It is over. Over.

It sure looks a bit grim for Republicans right now, but I'm afraid it's not over as long as states like Colorado, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Hampshire, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and perhaps even Maine and New Jersey, are all trending from ever so slightly to strongly (which could be the case of Colorado, Maine, Michigan & New Jersey) towards one or more Republican candidates. Michigan's tipping point status right now is only Hillary +4.8%, which is just about a percentage point stronger than Obama's final number in 2012 and actually slightly weaker than his tipping point state of Colorado/Pennsylvania at +5.4%. Now this 2016 tipping point status is still what I would call "worst case scenario" - and Hillary actually coming within single digits from her opponent in Maine is a slightly ludicruous thought (and far from all that realistic) - so it's still pretty comfortable news for Hillary when all is said and done, of course. :)

All the polls of Florida and Ohio so far are of course extremely bad news for the GOP class of 2016, but at the same time we shouldn't forget that many other battleground states show quite a different picture from this one. Although it's of course very hard to argue that Florida and Ohio are not the two (by far) most important battleground states out there, especially if one thinks historically about it, since they've both been surprisingly close to the national average since at least in the last four elections (from 2000 onwards), although for Ohio going even way further back than that, and having their enormous electoral clout in mind as well.

Dominating. Ohio is Hillary country, just like Florida.

but #braingazi