Talk Elections

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Rasmussen on 2014-06-05 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=19220140605016)

Summary: D: 44%, R: 45%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/iowa/election_2014_iowa_senate)

Uh-oh ...

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I'll be happy if Braley actually loses, no question. But I want to see another poll before I get my hopes up.

Primary bounce?

Ernst got LOADS of money from USCC, Rubio, and tea party groups so she could win the primary.  

Anyways, lean D -> tilt D IMO.

EDIT:  I think that those who talked about how horrible Ernst was were speaking too soon.

Great news for good and decent people.

Ernst got a fair deal of money from the Chamber, sure, but her campaign itself barely raised or spent any money. Not to mention, I don't know how many millions Jacobs spent in ads to get in the teens. That "Squeal" ad went viral and worked wonders for her.

I think people here are overreacting to how "awful" she is. Is she the perfect candidate? No. Sure she has said some questionable things, but let's not pretend Bruce Braley is the world's most disciplined candidate. Not every conservative female is Sarah Palin. Also, Ernst has managed to very quickly unite the party.

Even the last PPP poll on Iowa had a sample which was favorable to Democrats. I think a few people here pointed that out. I am not suggesting this race is an easy GOP pickup, but it will be more competitive than people here seemed to think.

Which is likely where this 1 point lead came from. She's getting increased coverage and a primary bounce.


True, not every conservative female is Sarah Palin. But Ernst has said a lot of crazy, stupid things. A LOT of them. I think the Sarah Palin comparison is well made, and Iowa will too once the DNSC and Braley goes on the air.

No

This is what I was referring to from the PPP poll.

Well it's not 2010 anymore :P

I want as many women in the next Senate as possible, yet I would only trade an Ernst Senator if say the Democratic candidate could win in Mississippi or something in exchange for this. :)
In that case I would be A'okey! :D

Overall, 2014 seems like it will be closer to the 2010 results than 2008 or 2012. It might be a stretch to say that Republicans will outnumber Democrats by 4 points this year in Iowa, but we could see a tie.

Rasmussen is back to being Rasmussen.

It is a naturaly tendency for candidates to get a bounce coming out of a divided primary versus a candidate who was unopposed in there primaries.


Ernst was not a top tier candidate, but I think people were too quick to toss her into the O'Donnell/Angle club just the same.

Also, didn't Grassley promise to raises massive amounts for whoerver the GOP nominated?

She hasn't done anything to prove herself as general election electable. We still need to wait. I won't be surprised if she blows it even with Braley being a bad fit for Iowa.

It's still Ras and Braley will still be Iowa's next junior Senator. If it isn't DMR or PPP, I won't believe it.

Competitive race? No?

Bounce and Rassy. I'll wait until thinking this is competitive.