Talk Elections

New Poll: Illinois Governor by We Ask America on 2014-06-11 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1720140611116)

Summary: D: 37%, R: 47%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.rebootillinois.com/2014/06/12/uncategorized/mattdietrich/2014-illinois-governor-poll/10213/)

Still looks like Quinn will be history after November ...

Rauner is avoiding press and dodging reporters questions. Quinn is looking to seal the deal on pensions, min wage and bringing a McCormick place cansino can bring him back. 10 pts isnt that bad for him.

This plus We Ask America historically has had a GOP bias. One would have to think this is one place where Obama could really help.

All of this doesn't help if you have a 30-35% approval rating ...

Obama could ride into IL on a unicorn and save 5 drowning kids out of Lake Michigan and it still wouldn't help Quinn win the election.

Given that this is We Ask America, I still think this is a toss-up.

This. WAA's record in Illinois is awful.

 WAA also had Quinn trailing Brady by 10 in September 2010 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/il/illinois_governor_brady_vs_quinn-1361.html)

Not that history will definitely repeat itself, but it's probably too early to count him out.

It's too early to count Quinn out, but that poll was probably not too far off for late summer 2010. Quinn took advantage of heavy attack ads against Brady in October and there was a surge of GOTV in Cook county. There was also a steady drumbeat of positive ads for independent candidate Cohen that collared anti-Quinn votes. Brady didn't have the resources to properly respond, but I don't see Rauner lacking resources in the fall.

I still believe in the end, the Democrats will find a way to win this race.  Their nominee may change (haha), but they will win.  Just a feeling.

The campaign hasn't even really started here yet. Once the commercials start and the volunteers mobilize, Quinn will get a boost. A lot of those Rauner voters are Democrats who don't like Quinn but will switch their vote when they find out about who Rauner is.

I doubt it. If Brady only lost by 1 (and he's the worst candidate for Illinois) and Quinn has gotten more unpopular since, then I think Rauner has a good shot.

It was also the best year for the GOP since 1994 and the GOP picked up the Senate seat that year, so I would by no means count Quinn out. The Cook County machine may not be enough to eke it out this time, though.

Rauner will never get union reforms through Madigan. Vallas who Quinn picked to be attack dog is just getting started. We will win.

I'm not counting Quinn out - not only is Illinois democratic to extreme levels, but Quinn seems to be quite politically adept or at least very lucky, and Rauner is not the best candidate they could've run (he's basically a pro-choice Scott Walker). At the same time, Brady was basically a generic "Tea Party" conservative, who, even in a Republican year, was too incompetent to seal the deal, so Rauner is a significant improvement of sorts.

2014 is not 2010, guys. Quinn is in much worse shape now than he was then.


He raised taxes in 2011 after promising not to, and has alienated a lot of his union support. In 2010, his Reformer Image was still intact, and many people thought to themselves, "Let's give this guy a chance". All of that goodwill is gone. Quinn's poll numbers have collapsed across the board, even with Illinois Democrats. Illinois has lagged far behind the rest of the nation economically since then, even compared to other blue states.

That same election he won by 34,000 votes, Mark Kirk won the Senate race by 59,000 votes. In the collar counties, Kirk won with margins in the mid-to-high 50s, while Brady won with low-to-mid 50s. Kirk even won several Chicago precincts (if not neighborhoods, IIRC). That is what made the difference allowing Quinn and Kirk to win simultaneously.

Rauner is not Brady, Quinn is not as popular, and voters are pissed over the tax lie and other issues. Yes, the Democratic machine makes this race a toss-up even if Quinn would otherwise be doomed, but having such a narrow victory in 2010 when the fundamentals favored Quinn and going into 2014 means that we cannot and should not just brush this off as "Eh, the Dems will pull through. Like always."