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Election Archive => 2014 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on June 12, 2014, 11:19:25 am



Title: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: Tender Branson on June 12, 2014, 11:19:25 am
KY: 49-46 Grimes
CO: 47-45 Gardner
AR: 49-45 Cotton
LA: 50-44 Cassidy
NC: 47-46 Hagan
GA: 47-44 GOP candidate
MT: 55-39 Daines
MI: 50-41 Peters


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: Tender Branson on June 12, 2014, 11:20:43 am
They polled 7 other states too, but I can't find the releases for those ... :(

Quote
The findings are based on automated surveys of likely 2014 general election voters in Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana and North Carolina. The surveys were fielded from June 4th to June 8th, and the margin of error for the surveys range from +/- 3.45% to 3.65% at the 95% confidence level. The surveys measured voter opinion of the newly proposed EPA carbon emissions regulation, as well as how information about the proposal impacts voter opinion.

http://www.magellanstrategies.com


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on June 12, 2014, 11:20:51 am
Huh?
A Republican internal shows McConnell losing? Is he really that screwed or is there a catch?


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: Tender Branson on June 12, 2014, 11:21:37 am
Huh?
A Republican internal shows McConnell losing? Is he really that screwed or is there a catch?

The party registration in this poll is 56% D, 40% R and only 4% I - which is weird.


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: Tender Branson on June 12, 2014, 11:26:02 am
Apparently, their CO poll will show:

Cory Gardner (R): 47%
Mark Udall (D): 45%

https://twitter.com/LoganDobson/statuses/477091955185573888


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on June 12, 2014, 11:26:17 am
Huh?
A Republican internal shows McConnell losing? Is he really that screwed or is there a catch?

The party registration in this poll is 56% D, 40% R and only 4% I - which is weird.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_KY_103.pdf

Not completely Tender, PPP: 52% democrat, 40% Rep, and 9% Ind

I obviously believe this poll is weird though.


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: Tender Branson on June 12, 2014, 11:31:21 am
Now the results are on their page !


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: Tender Branson on June 12, 2014, 11:33:39 am
But no Senate results.


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: badgate on June 12, 2014, 02:52:40 pm
Wonderful news!


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on June 12, 2014, 02:54:33 pm
I remember seeing a poll back last year that said the candidates were roughly even, but Grimes led by 15 among folks who were more familiar with the campaign. Maybe McConnell is floundering just because people are finding out more.


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: Miles on June 12, 2014, 04:57:45 pm
Release. (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/Magellan_AR_0614.pdf)

Cotton (R)- 49%
Pryor (D)- 45%


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: ModerateVAVoter on June 12, 2014, 04:58:14 pm
The lack of recent non-partisan polls in this race is kind of annoying.


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on June 12, 2014, 05:20:07 pm
The lack of recent non-partisan polls in this race is kind of annoying.

Well, Magellan seems to overestimate EVERY challenger to the incumbent (see Colorado and Kentucky).
This is like Magellan wanted all senators to lose reelection :P.


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: Flake on June 12, 2014, 06:21:29 pm
New Poll: Kentucky Senator by Magellan Strategies on 2014-06-05 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=21220140605120)

Summary: D: 49%, R: 46%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://salsa3.salsalabs.com/o/51102/images/KYMagellanToplines.pdf)


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: SWE on June 12, 2014, 07:46:20 pm
LIKELY R!!!!!!1!!!!


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: LeBron FitzGerald on June 12, 2014, 08:22:33 pm
Given Magellan's polling overestimated the size of the Blanching in AR-Sen's 2010 race by about 10 points, this is still a pure tossup very much. Pryor already labeled this as a junk, push poll anyways since it was conducted for the same group who spent money on 2 of the Cotton - military ads, but luckily for Cotton, he got a much needed Romney endorsement and as we've seen recently with establishment and Tea Party backed candidates like Tillis, they don't mess around and can be serious threats.


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 12, 2014, 08:46:19 pm
I'm with MAAV. Really need PPP or Talk Business. It's probably still MOE lead for either one.


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: Miles on June 12, 2014, 11:07:30 pm
Release. (http://media.wix.com/ugd/786786_1c67244ef85e493e9799d1db6849fdcf.pdf)

Cassidy (R)- 50%
Landrieu (D)- 44%
Someone else- 5%

I don't have the release for NC yet, but the Hayride says (http://thehayride.com/2014/06/magellans-new-poll-raises-the-possibility-the-cassidy-landrieu-race-could-be-over-in-november/) Hagan leads 47-46.


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: Tender Branson on June 13, 2014, 03:09:11 am
So, here are the results of all 8 states:

KY: 49-46 Grimes
CO: 47-45 Gardner
AR: 49-45 Cotton
LA: 50-44 Cassidy
NC: 47-46 Hagan
GA: 47-44 GOP candidate
MT: 55-39 Daines
MI: 50-41 Peters


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on June 14, 2014, 05:33:43 am
So, here are the results of all 8 states:

KY: 49-46 Grimes
CO: 47-45 Gardner
AR: 49-45 Cotton
LA: 50-44 Cassidy
NC: 47-46 Hagan
GA: 47-44 GOP candidate
MT: 55-39 Daines
MI: 50-41 Peters

That's prettty weird...


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on June 14, 2014, 06:54:52 am
So, here are the results of all 8 states:

KY: 49-46 Grimes
CO: 47-45 Gardner
AR: 49-45 Cotton
LA: 50-44 Cassidy
NC: 47-46 Hagan
GA: 47-44 GOP candidate
MT: 55-39 Daines
MI: 50-41 Peters

That's prettty weird...

Hard to trust any Republican internal after what happened the last 2-3 years.


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: JRP1994 on June 16, 2014, 10:35:00 am
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/Magellan_MI_0614.pdf

Peters: 50%
Land: 41%


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: ModerateVAVoter on June 16, 2014, 10:37:30 am
LANDslide.


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 16, 2014, 11:15:00 am
It isn't over because it never started. Peters will win comfortably, but I doubt any other Pub candidate would do much better.


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: Gass3268 on June 16, 2014, 11:53:30 am
It isn't over because it never started. Peters will win comfortably, but I doubt any other Pub candidate would do much better.

I've always found Michigan interesting in that they are almost never a swing state on the federal level, but when it comes to statewide officials it is almost always competitive. 


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: Dirty Dan on June 16, 2014, 01:50:16 pm
It isn't over because it never started. Peters will win comfortably, but I doubt any other Pub candidate would do much better.

I've always found Michigan interesting in that they are almost never a swing state on the federal level, but when it comes to statewide officials it is almost always competitive. 

Without the rust belt, the Democratic Party, at least for now, would be in a significant regional party position. The voters there seem to be the opposite of how D voters in the south used to be in the 70s and 80s. That is, will vote for local democrats but for republicans at the top of the ticket. More likely, the average voter has pragmatic beliefs about what they can afford of and what they need of Government.


Title: Re: Magellan (R)/National Mining Association: 8 Senate polls
Post by: dmmidmi on June 18, 2014, 06:44:40 am
It isn't over because it never started. Peters will win comfortably, but I doubt any other Pub candidate would do much better.

One who knew how to run a competent campaign might be doing better.

I'm still wondering what skeleton prevented Mike Rogers from running for this seat.