Talk Elections

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/hagan-lead-up-to-5-with-unpopular-legislature-in-session.html

Hagan: 39%
Tillis: 34%
Haugh (L): 11%

11% the lib?

Hmmmm, I don t believe it

Okay, so I'm not the only one who finds the Libertarian getting 11% as fishy?

Yeah..... Not in North Carolina.

We are at least 3 :P

Seriously, PPP is a really good pollster overall, but their main problem is that they always overestimate the libertarians.

Well, they didn't even poll the Libertarian here until after Tillis won the primary too. This just doesn't seem right.

Not great for Tillis, but honestly, Hagan can't be comfortable with getting below 40% in this poll.

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-06-15 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=37220140615108)

Summary: D: 39%, R: 34%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/hagan-lead-up-to-5-with-unpopular-legislature-in-session.html)

Well, they also asked for preferences without the Lib. candidate:

Q4 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Democrat Kay Hagan, Republican Thom Tillis, and Libertarian Sean Haugh. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Kay Hagan...................................................... 39%
Thom Tillis ...................................................... 34%
Sean Haugh.................................................... 11%
Undecided....................................................... 16%

Q5 Horse race with Haugh supporters asked whether they lean Hagan or Tillis:

Kay Hagan...................................................... 42%
Thom Tillis ...................................................... 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 20%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_617.pdf

Translation: Hagan and Tillis in virtual dead heat.

Both great news for Hagan, especially the answer to the second question. :P

It is a bit fishy that the Libertarian is in double-digits, but if this is actually the case, it seems that Hagan would have a lead of about 5% like PPP is indicating, as I feel that Libertarians usually take more votes from Republicans than Democrats. Anyhow, I agree with the sentiment that being under 40% is not a good place for any Democrat in a slightly Republican state like North Carolina.

I don't know about that, I'd think Hagan's a bit ahead given she's up 5 and the Libertarian vote actually splits in her favor somewhat...

2014 north carolina is the new 2010 nevada :P

Also remember that PPP is polling registered voters, while Magellan recently already polled likely voters and had Hagan+1.

Could be a little closer than what PPP shows.

Normally I'd be bitching, but with the libertarian polling so high, I think it's a good time to unskew.

"Only 18% of voters approve of the job the General Assembly is doing to 54% who disapprove. Perhaps as an extension of that, Tillis has just a 23% favorability rating with 45% of voters rating him unfavorably." :)

"On a couple of the more recent hot button issues the legislature has dealt with, voters do not support the Republicans' approach. Only 31% think funding teachers raises through the House's proposal of  increased lottery sales (19%) or the Senate's proposal of cutting teacher assistants (12%) is a good idea, while 55% would prefer getting that money by raising taxes on those making more than $250,000 a year. Even Republicans (40/39) would prefer increasing taxes on the wealthy to either the House or Senate's proposal." :)

"North Carolinians support the proposal President Obama made requiring existing power plants to cut carbon pollution by up to 30%, 58/23. Democrats (71/12) and independents (59/20) both support it overwhelmingly and even Republicans (42/39) do narrowly." :)

"The student loan bill going through Congress right now divides Kay Hagan and Richard Burr, but voters are much more on the Democrats' side. By a 74/13 spread they say they support letting students refinance their loans at the current lower rates, and that has at least 69% support across party lines." :)

"Finally increasing the minimum wage to $10 an hour continues to be popular as we find every month in North Carolina. This time the numbers break down 55% supporting it to 34% who are opposed." :)

All great news in North Carolina this month. :P

Junk poll!

Not really, the R internal Magellan had her up too. She isnt gonna go quiety, and beat the odds, yet.

Just because a poll doesn't show a Republican leading doesn't mean the poll is wrong.

Hagan is leading by 4 when the L guy is not included, as ericsolo indicated.

Let's keep in mind this was a non-partisan PPP poll and that their company is in the state itself, so this is probably one of the most reliable post-primary polls even if Haugh is oversampled. It also shows that Hagan's numbers have improved because she only led 38-36 with Haugh in the race back in PPP's May poll and she was tied with Tillis 41-41 w/o Haugh.

I really believe Hagan's chances continue to be underestimated. This race is right on the border line of lean Democratic, and the only thing going in Tillis' favor right now is that after July, the General Assembly's short 6-week session is over (barring Gov. McCrory calling a special session) and won't be able to be as hog wild this year as they were last year. Still, it helps having Haugh in this race, no 50% threshold and Tillis proving he's Romney-like gaffe prone which all bodes well for Hagan.

Haugh's support will of course collapse mightily by Election Day. Normally I'd say that's good news for Tillis, but I'm surprised to see Hagen actually running slightly ahead as Haugh voters' second choice.

I think the CW that people who vote libertarian would ALWAYS overwhelmingly break Republican is starting to falter.

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/virginia/exit-polls.html

Sarvis got more liberals than conservatives, and did best among moderates, which solidly favored McAuliffe. This doesn't conclusively prove they would've broken for McAuliffe (other demographic crosstabs suggest otherwise), but it shows that it isn't nearly as clear cut as many pretend it is.

Ugh, I'm not sure what to make of this. This is exactly the type of thing that gives PPP haters fodder.

The best pieces of news for me here are their approvals/favorables. Hagan is at 42/46, which is better than the 37/50-ish she was consistently at a few months ago. Tillis is at 23/45. Thats more negative that I'd expect and Hagan needs to keep it as low as possible.

Undecideds in the Hagan/Tillis matchup are only slightly R-leaning. 21% of Romney voters are unsure, 15% of Obama's are.

Also, something to note is that if Haugh keeps up this type of support he'll likely get invited to teh debates. (http://www.politicsnc.com/ppp-haugh-makes-it-a-threesome/) The threshold to get into the GOP primary debate was 7%.

The libertarian support is fairly even here, but he does in fact take more from Tilllis. Look at the numbers.
39 Hagan, 34 Tillis, 11 Haugh
42 Hagan, 38 Tilllis

Put in the libertarian, and what he does in this poll is take 3 points from Hagan (42 down to 39), but takes 4 points from Tillis (42 down to 38), with the remaining 4% coming from the undecided column. Essentially, Tillis is winning the libertarian vote 36%-27%, with a heavy 37% undecided.

Good points all around, Icespear. Maybe libertarian-leaning southern voters are more receptive to considering Democrats as social conservatism is more strongly emophasized by southern Republicans than elsewhere?

Still, I say the most accurate way to poll a race is to not mention 3rd party candidates by name as an option but include those respondents who volunteer a 3rd party candidate. Exceptions should only be made for MAJOR 3rd party candidates like Cutler in ME.