Talk Elections

43% Braley (D)
43% Ernst (R)
14% Undecided


The Iowa poll was conducted July 7-13 of 1,599 registered voters, and has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

http://www.kwqc.com/story/26028462/nbcmarist-poll-has-braley-and-ernst-tied

Not what I was expecting - this may stay close after all.

Hm, this isn't what I was expecting from Marist. Interesting how Ernst still suffers from a gender gap.

Braley needs to go negative with ads listing all the crazy ish Ernst has done and said.

If it's a poll of registered voters, then Ernst is probably leading IRL.  Great news for the GOP.

People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.  Braley has said and done some crazy-ish things of his own, so Ernst could easily counter-attack on that front.

Yes, Braley isn't exactly in a good position to attack Ernst as a crazy gaffer.

So now we've resorted to unskewing to escape from inconvenient truths.

Holy sh*t, you really do represent everything you hate in today's GOP.

I'm not quite sure a comment about having a farmer on the judiciary committee and some neighbor's chicken running around your yard is on the same level as saying that Iraq had WMDs 10 years after it's been proven they don't and calling for the impeachment of the President. But that's none of my business...

Uh, no I haven't.  The fact is that polls of registered voters are more likely to overstate Democrat numbers because the pool of registered voters is more D than that of likely voters.  Plus, polls of likely voters are generally more accurate anyway, simply because they are "likely" voters.

The election is three and a half months out, and the only recent LV polls that show Ernst with a significant lead have been from a Republican internal (which is largely untested, did awfully in its first race, and shows absurd results) and a uni firm with flawed methodology (that is, basing the electorate directly off of an anomaly of a cycle). If anything, the only LV poll with a shred of reputability that was taken post-primary confirms this result, not refutes it. Overall, this poll seems accurate, and doesn't need to be unskewed because it shows a competitive race.

It's just that Braley hasn't run a top-notch campaign. I definitely agree with you on Ernst having glaring faults, but sometimes the political climate can counteract the effect of those shortcomings.

This race reminds me of Virginia 2013. I'm sure Iowans would like more choices than potentially-impeachment-voting Ernst and chicken-suing Braley, but they'll have to pick a lesser evil between the two of them. My gut says Ernst is ahead now, since Braley's mini-scandal broke more recently than hers, but Iowa is a Tilt D state and Ernst is a B-list candidate, so I do think Braley is still favored overall.

Crazy things can happen when  candidates insult farmers in an agriculturally based state. I still haven't figured out what compelled Barely to do that, in a race where he had only a modest lead from the onset? Personally, I think we are dealing with two sub-par candidates here. If a Libertarian runs, it could tip things towards the Democrats.

Give the race more time to cook to make a projection. That's my book. Don't forget Branstad is popular, so he might help Ernst out.

If anything, North Carolina reminds me of VA 2013. Lesser of two evils, with the Libertarian thrown in.

Doesn't really make sense since the Senate race comes on the ballot first, also

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arkansas_gubernatorial_election,_2010
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arkansas,_2010

I'm glad the Dem is starting to pull away in Michigan because here in Iowa Braley is proving to be a rather poor candidate.

Ernst could become the first crazy Republican woman elected to the senate. Still think she'll lose, people underestimate IA's liberal leanings. Dukakis won Iowa by 10 points and it has a strong populist streak.

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Marist College on 2014-07-13 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=19220140713008)

Summary: D: 43%, R: 43%, I: 1%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/IApolls/IA140707/2014/Complete%20July%202014%20Iowa%20NBC%20News__Marist%20Poll%20Release%20and%20Tables.pdf)