Talk Elections

link (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2063)

Clinton 54, Christie 33
Clinton 53, Paul 37
Clinton 49, Bush 42
Clinton 53, Rubio 39
Clinton 51, Ryan 38

()

21 points, in Florida? That's landslide territory, like Reagan or LBJ...

Hasn't happened since Bush's 1988 win of 22.36%

Highly skeptical of this...

But lemme guess, their Colorado polls are accurate right?

Based on recent election results, what is more likely? A Republican with a slight lead in Colorado, or a Democrat with a >20% lead in Florida?

Hillary already being at around the 50% mark in a must-win GOP state should worry Republicans. The American electorate isn't as fluid as it was even ten years ago and I doubt that many of those currently intending to vote for Hillary will be swayed by the campaign proper.

Sorry, Quinnipiac, but Hillary isn't capable of a victory that huge in Florida. This is the county map she'd have to achieve, roughly (reversed colors):
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/77/FLSen06Counties.png

Whether you're ridiculously oversampling democrats or forcing tons of Christie voters to vote undecided, please stop and go back to valid polling.

Clearly Hillary is a horrible and flawed candidate because she only leads by a couple points in Iowa. ;)

Splendid news!

Quinnipiac is known for being overgenerous towards Democrats in Florida.

Uh, no.

Quinnipiac's final Florida poll in 2012: Obama +1, Nelson +13
Actual 2012 results: Obama +1, Nelson +13

In fact, they were the most accurate Florida pollster, whereas many others were dead wrong.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/fl/florida_senate_mack_vs_nelson-1847.html

And I just checked 2010 and 2008, and their Florida polls there were also pretty close to the end result. You must be confusing them with a different pollster.

If Rubio is the VP choice, can he even deliver Florida?

No.

I think there's too much focus on the Christie numbers. There's really not a lot of difference between this and the last Q poll (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=191783.0) in May - just Ryan and Paul do better, Rubio does a little worse.

Um... consider the fact that I think Hillary's support in FL is pretty steady. The GOP haven't got a CLUE who is running or what, Democrats and everyone else leaning that way are only really thinking about Hillary.

So in reality it should be reported as
Clinton 54 - Christie 33 - Don't know - 13 - I'm pretty sure a big portion of those don't knows would fall behind Christie if he were the nominee.

(posted elsewhere)
 
It is a severe outlier by Q standards.

I know! Hillary Clinton seems highly likely to win the state, but perhaps by 5% over one of the stronger R candidates. A margin greater than 10% suggests that

(1) Florida has become about as strong a D state as Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania,  which makes no sense in view of recent polls -- some available within the last couple of weeks. If Florida were that strongly D, then Governor Rick Scott would be staring into a landslide loss, which he is not doing even in a Q poll of the Governorship.

(2) Hillary Clinton has basically revived the Jimmy Carter coalition and grafted it onto the Obama coalition. For that to make sense I would need to see Clinton winning just about everything in the South. Carter won the state by 5% in 1976 (his fifteenth-best state); Obama won it by less than 3% in 2008. Florida has usually been a tough state for Democratic Presidential nominees to win; it was the second-weakest win for LBJ in 1964. Bill Clinton, the strongest Democratic nominee since LBJ in a Presidential election, barely lost it in 1992 and won it by 6% in 1996. We know about Florida in 2000.


Possible -- but not likely. It's not likely to contradict recent polls.

(3) Something has happened, all of a sudden, to mess up Republican chances for election or re-election nationwide. Has anyone seen anything to create such an effect? Such would show in approval ratings for President Obama, which remain awful. The Malaysian jetliner being shot down is just about neutral news for American politics.

(4) International concerns have begun to trump other concerns, and Hillary Clinton is in an excellent position to become  more desirable. Q shows the favorability of Hillary Clinton very stable -- and so are the ratings of favorability for potential R rivals. There is nothing there.  The downing of the Malaysian jetliner in dangerous airspace is just about neutral news for American politics.

Barack Obama's approval rating in Florida is in the range in which, were he running for re-election, he would barely win the state again.

Quinnipiac is usually one of my preferred pollsters, in view of its prior achievements, but this time the results seem terribly out of line. We can count on seeing frequent polls about Florida hereon. In fact, I expect to see lots of polls from neighboring Georgia  from now until November because of hotly-contested Gubernatorial and Senate races. Show Hillary Clinton up 5% against just about everyone in Georgia, and I will accept this Q poll. Show another pollster concurring with these results and I will accept it.

Pollsters can have bad days -- or bad samples -- any day. That includes Quinnipiac, which rarely has them.

If you want my assessment of the 2016 Presidential election so far -- Hillary Clinton has gone from being marginally qualified to be President in 2008 to being one of the strongest candidates that we have known for a long time. Should she win Florida 55-45 she wins nationwide at least 58-42 with over 400 electoral votes -- 440 if she gets Texas, which would probably be the closest state in that scenario.

You are aware that Solopop is as pro-Hillary as it gets, right?

Christie is a really terrible candidate, and the polls are showing that to be the truth. If you want to court the Northeast, maybe he moves the numbers there a little bit, but outside of that region he's really a drag.

fav/unfav %
Clinton 58/38% for +20%
Bush 48/37% for +11%
Rubio 43/35% for +8%
Paul 32/28% for +4%
Ryan 33/30% for +3%
Christie 35/36% for -1%

Rubio job approval:
approve: 49%
disapprove: 37%

If you give Obama Kerry's numbers with white voters in Florida and leave everything else constant from 2012, Obama would win by about 54/45.  I think that is what is driving the FL polling for Hillary.  Not sure if it holds up like this, but I am pretty confident that with Hillary on the ticket, FL would be more Dem than the nation.

What makes Clinton such a good fit for Florida?

Her age. She's even older than the average age of a Floridian adult.

Image if our magnificent and all powerful All Mighty God designed a state that was demographically perfect for Clinton. Florida is that state. She will run up the numbers here and send the Republicans packing before their convention has even ended.

Doesn't Florida also have a large number of retirees from New York? I think she also had/has a lot of the Florida Democratic establishment support (Nelson, DWS, and even Meek and Hastings were Hillary supporters in 2008).

It'd be interesting to see how she does among Cubans, since that was arguably the voting bloc that delivered the state to Obama in 2012. If Cubans really are becoming more Democratic (especially younger ones), Florida will become a leans Democratic state before long. The senior citizen vote would be interesting to see as well seeing as how the elderly usually go GOP. However, I don't think age is the sole factor to explain why she's a good fit for the state.

Romney was slightly ahead in Florida until the last few days -- when his campaign offered the infamous Spanish-language ad that tried to connect Barack Obama to Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez.  

Old people naturally aren't too fond of blacks. But considering the huge Northeastern transplant population there she will have a bit of a home state advantage being from NY. Elderly Jews that came out in droves to support the Gore/Lieberman ticket, also would flock to her.

All that Obama hates Israel and is a secret Muslim terrorist crap thrown at him , dragged his numbers down with olds and jews.

I like the margin.

With approximately 80,000 raw votes' differential representing a full percentage point in carrying Florida, that means Hillary Clinton would win the state (over Chris Christie) by approximately 1.6 million raw votes.

For a Democrat to win Florida by 21 percentage points would be winning the U.S. Popular Vote by 23 percentage points (as Richard Nixon did with re-election in 1972) and a 40-state landslide in the Electoral College.

I definitely like this 21-point margin.