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Election Archive => 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on July 24, 2014, 12:36:16 pm



Title: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: Tender Branson on July 24, 2014, 12:36:16 pm
New Mexico Governor: Martinez (R) 43%, King (D) 43%

The survey of 860 Likely Voters in New Mexico was conducted on July 21-22, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/new_mexico/election_2014_new_mexico_governor


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: Tender Branson on July 24, 2014, 12:36:51 pm
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Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: Miles on July 24, 2014, 12:48:05 pm
Rassy being Rassy.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: Beat-Em-All Beto on July 24, 2014, 01:00:39 pm
Rassy being Rassy.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on July 24, 2014, 01:03:18 pm
It would be pretty sweet. Polls are definitely all over the place right now.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: olowakandi on July 24, 2014, 01:05:27 pm
Bruce King was already gov of NM. This state is rype for picking.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: Gass3268 on July 24, 2014, 01:14:25 pm
This would be tasty if true.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: IceSpear on July 24, 2014, 01:20:10 pm
It's Rasmussen, but PPP also showed this surprisingly close. Probably worth keeping an eye on.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: King on July 24, 2014, 01:29:08 pm
Campaign has been silent so far so it's kind of Generic D vs incumbent right now.

Martinez is an infinitely better candidate than King when push comes to shove, though. Only way she doesn't win is if this turns into a Democratic wave year between now and November.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: Wolverine22 on July 24, 2014, 01:54:04 pm
WHHHHHHAAAAAT?

I was thinking this one's final tally would be comparable to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey_gubernatorial_election,_2013" target="_blank" title="Example">this</a>


Title: NM: Rasmussen: Suprisingly close in NM
Post by: Flake on July 24, 2014, 01:58:57 pm
New Poll: New Mexico Governor by Rasmussen on 2014-07-22 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3520140722016)

Summary: D: 43%, R: 43%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/new_mexico/election_2014_new_mexico_governor)


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: NHLiberal on July 24, 2014, 02:01:51 pm
Haha


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: olowakandi on July 24, 2014, 03:22:36 pm
As a GOP pollster he has shown Walker, Scott and Martinez in danger of losing.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: Lief 🐋 on July 24, 2014, 03:26:54 pm
Wonderful news! Democrats will solidify Clinton's hold on the presidency if we knock off Martinez and Scott Walker this November.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: Free Bird on July 24, 2014, 03:43:59 pm
No. No. No. Don't any of you dare start calling Rassy reputable now.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: Maxwell on July 24, 2014, 09:25:09 pm
Rassy is Rassy, I feel the same way toward the Fallin poll even though I hope it is true. We'll have to see more polling.

Sadly, PPP will never poll Oklahoma. Luckily, they may poll New Mexico.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: ElectionsGuy on July 24, 2014, 10:30:54 pm
Not buying this, Rasmussen always seems like they're all over the place.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: ModerateVAVoter on July 24, 2014, 10:31:56 pm
I don't think Martinez is up by a lot, but I don't think she's in too much danger of losing either.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: LeBron FitzGerald on July 25, 2014, 03:32:22 am
I mean, aside from the scandals, she is too conservative for the state as well (even opposing amnesty) which might be able to counterbalance King's awful past as Attorney General. Still, PPP's poll is probably more on track with this race with Rassy being so terrible on both Dem and GOP biases. It would be nice if we could unseat her, but she still has the advantage.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: Free Bird on July 25, 2014, 06:11:19 am
Can you guys seriously stop saying "we?" Makes you sound like some alien hive mind.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on July 25, 2014, 08:43:00 am
Can you guys seriously stop saying "we?" Makes you sound like some alien hive mind.
He knows too much.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: pbrower2a on July 25, 2014, 12:30:49 pm
It isn't 2010 anymore.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: Skill and Chance on July 26, 2014, 04:13:28 pm
The state could simply be getting too Dem.  I still think she will win, but I could easily see it being a 51/47 affair with the GOP not gaining legislative ground like they hoped.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: Jbrase on July 26, 2014, 04:37:27 pm
King, if you end up beating Martinez, what are your plans for running the state?


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: Miles on July 26, 2014, 04:55:18 pm
Also, the polls overestimated her in 2010. The average had her up 11 and she won by 7.

I still think she'll win by 4-7 points though. 


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: Dixie Reborn on July 26, 2014, 05:31:14 pm
No. No. No. Don't any of you dare start calling Rassy reputable now.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: Skill and Chance on July 26, 2014, 07:37:53 pm
Also, the polls overestimated her in 2010. The average had her up 11 and she won by 7.

I still think she'll win by 4-7 points though. 

True.  You really don't want to be tied going into election day if you are a Republican in the Southwest.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: olowakandi on July 26, 2014, 08:36:51 pm
This was a race that Martinez should of won easily. This may be an bellweather, usually so goes NM and CO so goes OH. Just maybe, Kasich is more vul than the polls are indicative.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: sg0508 on July 27, 2014, 01:31:09 pm
Keep in mind that since NM is a bluish state, most of the remaining undecided voters will break Democratic in the end.  Martinez will want to be above 50% by the time Election Day rolls around.  This would be a huge, huge upset though and possibly, a major hit to the GOP nationally given the Hispanic population in NM.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: IceSpear on July 27, 2014, 01:52:47 pm
Martinez is no Sandoval, King is no Goodman, and New Mexico is not Nevada. This was never going to be a landslide.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: ModerateVAVoter on July 27, 2014, 01:56:07 pm
Martinez is no Sandoval, King is no Goodman, and New Mexico is not Nevada. This was never going to be a landslide.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: sg0508 on July 28, 2014, 11:56:59 am
Not that it's a good comparison as the state has changed, but even the moderate Gary Johnson struggled somewhat in his re-election bid back in '98 (winning by eight points).  Democrats won every other down-ballot race that year, with Johnson's being the only GOP win on the NM ticket during that cycle.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: Maxwell on July 28, 2014, 09:51:02 pm
Not that it's a good comparison as the state has changed, but even the moderate Gary Johnson struggled somewhat in his re-election bid back in '98 (winning by eight points).  Democrats won every other down-ballot race that year, with Johnson's being the only GOP win on the NM ticket during that cycle.

It's a mistake to call Gary Johnson a moderate. Yes, he was socially moderate, but he was very fiscally conservative, and he got a fairly good opponent.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on July 28, 2014, 11:02:24 pm
Not that it's a good comparison as the state has changed, but even the moderate Gary Johnson struggled somewhat in his re-election bid back in '98 (winning by eight points).  Democrats won every other down-ballot race that year, with Johnson's being the only GOP win on the NM ticket during that cycle.

It's a mistake to call Gary Johnson a moderate. Yes, he was socially moderate, but he was very fiscally conservative, and he got a fairly good opponent.

That was back when Republicans were still doing OK-ish in New Mexico. Bush even won the state once with his triangulation on immigration. Without a candidate who can triangulate like that, New Mexico is definitely a task.


Title: Re: NM-Rasmussen: Gov. Martinez (R) fighting for her political life
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on July 29, 2014, 11:33:05 pm
This was a race that Martinez should of won easily. This may be an bellweather, usually so goes NM and CO so goes OH. Just maybe, Kasich is more vul than the polls are indicative.

LOL, bellweathers don't exist for governor races.