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Title: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Cotton Narrowly Leads Pryror Post by: tmthforu94 on July 29, 2014, 05:14:51 PM New Poll: Arkansas Senator by Hendrix College/Talk Business on 2014-07-25 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5220140725118)
Summary: D: 42%, R: 44%, I: 7%, U: 7% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://talkbusiness.net/2014/07/u-s-senate-poll-tom-cotton-44-mark-pryor-42/) Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Cotton Narrowly Leads Pryror Post by: RogueBeaver on July 29, 2014, 05:18:38 PM Cotton up 50/33 with Indies, leads in CD1/3/4.
Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Cotton Narrowly Leads Pryror Post by: IceSpear on July 29, 2014, 05:19:24 PM Remember when Pryor was supposed to get Blanched?
Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Cotton Narrowly Leads Pryror Post by: Miles on July 29, 2014, 05:33:14 PM The good news for Pryor is that they undersampled blacks. Its a bit worrying to see him losing CD1, but they say Cotton's lead there is only "marginal."
Also, they weighed all four CDs equally. CD2 (Pryor's best) cast the most votes in 2010. Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Cotton Narrowly Leads Pryror Post by: RogueBeaver on July 29, 2014, 05:41:08 PM They weren't that different from PPP last time, so we'll see what PPP says next week. Enten said a racial reweighting means Cotton +0.4. (https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/494247978518216704)
Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Cotton Narrowly Leads Pryror Post by: Keystone Phil on July 29, 2014, 08:56:18 PM Absolutely horrific news for the soon-to-be-former Senator.
Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Cotton Narrowly Leads Pryror Post by: free my dawg on July 29, 2014, 11:29:29 PM Absolutely horrific news for the soon-to-be-former Senator. Dawg, I'm just grateful this is somewhat competitive. Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Cotton Narrowly Leads Pryror Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on July 29, 2014, 11:52:40 PM If this race remains this close, Pryor has a chance.
Title: Re: AR: Hendrix College/Talk Business: Cotton Narrowly Leads Pryror Post by: pbrower2a on July 30, 2014, 09:09:48 AM Quote The high-stakes race for the U.S. Senate remains locked in a near dead heat 100 days before Election Day. Our last survey showed U.S. Senator Mark Pryor with a marginal lead. This survey, with a sample of nearly 1,800 Arkansans, shows a similar marginal lead for Congressman Tom Cotton (44% to 42%). It will take more time to see if this marks any legitimate shift in Cotton’s direction or, instead, remains statistical noise in a race that has been airtight for months. In all likelihood, fall debates (still in discussion) mark the next major opportunity for either candidate to create space in the race. In examining the cross tabs in the survey, expected patterns emerge. A gender gap continues to express itself in the race with Pryor leading among women (45% to 40%) but Cotton is running up a much larger lead among men (49% 37%). The poll was weighted to match the turnout in the last mid-term election (2010), but the Cotton campaign hopes that it can create a November electorate that is closer to even in terms of gender composition. - See more at: http://talkbusiness.net/2014/07/u-s-senate-poll-tom-cotton-44-mark-pryor-42/#sthash.KgexlF4Y.dpuf This isn't 2010 anymore. This race is a true toss-up. |