Talk Elections

48% Kasich (R)
36% FitzGerald (D)

The traditional gender gap exists as men back the Republican 53 - 31 percent, while women are divided, with 43 percent for Gov. Kasich and 41 percent for FitzGerald.

Kasich leads 92 - 2 percent among Republicans and 47 - 28 percent among independent voters, while Democrats go to FitzGerald 78 - 9 percent.

Ohio voters approve 55 - 31 percent of the job Kasich is doing, virtually unchanged from his all-time high of 56 - 33 percent May 14. Voters say 50 - 37 percent that he deserves reelection, compared to 53 - 37 percent in May.

Kasich gets a 46 - 30 percent favorability rating, little changed from May.


From July 24 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,366 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2065

They couldn't have waited another week or so until the ad is finished airing in the Cleveland and Columbus media markets? Quinnipiac seriously doesn't ever give FitzGerald enough credit. His campaign schedule is much more tedious than Kasich's and his last unknown figures I saw were at around 50%, not 67%. He has been getting his name out there through this ad, fundraisers and a lot of visits all around the state, contrary to Quinnipiac's belief that "no one knows him."

Don't enter this. Quinnipiac is the only pollster who believes this is a double digit race and as usual, Kasich's lead, job approval and lead among women is laughable. Their polls were so off in 2010's race and they're not even close this time, either. If anything, the internal is more on track with where this race is at with FitzGerald remaining competitive.

Pollsters have schedules. They are certainly not delaying a poll, just because some random candidate has not aired his ads yet ... That would make no sense.

Of course it will be entered.

Your claim that Quinnipiac was "so off" in 2010 is completely wrong (they said Kasich+1, Kasich won by 2) and said Portman+19 (Portman won by 17):


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1530

...

It seems very hard for Fitzgerald to come anywhere close to winning, considering:

* Kasich has a 55-30 approval rating
* By 60-40 voters think OH is on the right track
* FitzGerald's low name recognition

New Poll: Ohio Governor by Quinnipiac University on 2014-07-28 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3920140728015)

Summary: D: 36%, R: 48%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/oh/oh07302014_oyzk247.pdf)


lolwhat? Quinnipiac has been a great Ohio pollster.

By "so off" I was referring to their set of late polls from 2010 that had Kasich with sizable, double digits leads.

Addressing those stared bulletpoints, Kasich's approval is not realistically at 55%. PPP's last non-partisan poll had him at 42-47 disapprove and other polls like SurveyUSA and Magellan have backed that up that Kasich's approval is only in the 40s. Most Ohioans actually believe that Ohio is on the wrong track, so Quinnipiac is wrong again. Quinnipiac can look at unemployment numbers all they want, but Ohioans are leaving the work force in high numbers, we're ranked very low in job creation and Ohioans are aware the state is going in the wrong direction. And as I said above, FitzGerald's name rec was at about 50% before the ad hit the air. Name rec isn't as big of a problem anymore as it was earlier this year and late last year.

Internals are usually only off by a few points and PPP's OH-Dem poll only had Kasich leading by 1 (which means factoring in the bias, he's up 3-5), and Quinnipiac isn't even close to that in this poll.

Good pollsters often have rigid schedules, and it is inappropriate for them to hold off just because an ad campaign is going on. Q will poll Ohio again; Q has a limited repertory of state4s in which it polls.  

Congratulations, you've officially won the prize of Forum Hack of the Year 2014. Krazen hasn't even come close to your performance. If the fact you get butthurt every time Fitzgerald gets smashed in the polls is an illustration of his campaign, then you guys are in even more sh**t than it seems like on paper.

Would you care to explain why is the internal "more on track"? What other polls apart from Democratic and Republican internals have shown this to be a close race?
Have you commissioned polling yourself with other pollsters? What do your results show?

Fitzgerald is going to lose a race, but this November you're going to lose your dignity.

Yeah, and every poll agreed with them (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/oh/ohio_governor_kasich_vs_strickland-1078.html).

Could you show me the links to these polls that say Ohio is on the wrong track?

Sorry FitzGerald, but excluding some hard words, Hifly is right.

Ohio governors historically win re-election. Even the crook Bob Taft. The only exception of course is that miserable failure Strickland.

I already explained myself on why the internal is more on track. Internal polling, even though it slants in the favor of one party, tends to still be a poll within the margin of error. There hasn't been a lot of polling here besides from Quinnipiac and Dem internals, but PPP's last non-partisan poll had FitzGerald leading Kasich by 3 points and Rassy, Magellan's 2 polls and YouGov had Kasich only leading within single digits. That PPP poll wasn't conducted since Aug. 2013 though, so until another poll from them here, I have no choice but to believe the Dem internals over Quinnipiac when Quinnipiac is out of face with the actual reality of where this race is at and how Kasich is viewed by Ohioans. The entire ODP acknowledges that and these internals not only show the optimism that our team needs to win this, but help give some actual insight on the race itself if no other reliable pollster besides PPP is going to step up to poll it.

Also Hifly, I wouldn't be one to call me a hack when you yourself sound like an ORP spokesman. Matt Borges and Chris Schimpf of the ORP regularly praise Q polls, denounce the internals and say how Kasich will easily get re-elected while the ODP funds the internals and ignores the Q polls. Contrary to the same, forum talking points of "FitzGerald isn't known!" or "Kasich is popular and will win re-election easily!", the race hasn't picked up steam until very recently among both campaigns and FitzGerald has improved a lot since the spring. OH-Gov is within or just outside of the MOE for Kasich.




And the week before they conducted that Kasich +1 poll, Quinnipiac had a Kasich +10 lead. (http://www.springfieldnewssun.com/news/news/national-govt-politics/kasich-gains-10-point-lead-over-strickland-1/nNH2g/) To go even further, they had Kasich leading by 17 in September. That article even noted that the Strickland campaign realized Quinnipiac polls are a complete joke. An in-state poll for the state newspapers conducted shortly after that got the race right on the money, 49-47 Kasich. (http://abc7.com/archive/7742882/)

As for Ohio being on the wrong track, I think you can trust me on that. State employers are getting hit with the burden of billions in jobless benefit debt we owe to the federal government, unemployment is still high especially around Southeast Ohio, the state's work force is diminishing and we're losing plenty of healthcare and social service jobs, we've had to raise local taxes after Kasich cut state funds, our charter schools are failing, the state refuses to raise the living wage even though we really need one, and even Kasich once admitted that our economy is stalled. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wR_XOjT35Dg) And that's after the Obama bailout. Now for re-election purposes he's said that Ohio's in an "Era of Good Feelings", but Ohioans aren't buying it and a big response to that recent quote by Kasich was a major FPO endorsement for FitzGerald.

Yeah, that is true. The last Governor to lose re-election before Strickland was Gilligan in 1974 and the last Republican Governor to lose re-election hasn't happened since Eisenhower's 2nd midterm. But hey, that's only history. PA is about to turf out it's first incumbent Governor and I think we can break our own history in Ohio since 1958 and defeat John Kasich! :)

Dominating!

Am I dreaming?

You need to relax before you pop something Adam...

Adam, the ad is awful. Accept it.