Title: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: Mr. Morden on August 04, 2014, 06:04:46 PM
Gravis poll of Wisconsin:
http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/wisconsin-polling-scott-walker-and-mary-burke-47-47/
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http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/wisconsin-polling-scott-walker-and-mary-burke-47-47/
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Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: RR1997 on August 04, 2014, 06:11:03 PM
GRAVIS
Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: RR1997 on August 04, 2014, 06:16:33 PM
Now we know Gravis is a joke.
Before I was giving Gravis polls about a 0.1% weight in my mind. Now it's down to 0%. Congrats.
Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: moderatevoter on August 04, 2014, 06:20:23 PM
Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: henster on August 04, 2014, 06:21:05 PM
This makes me feel better about Burke Gravis had her tied with Walker in the Governor poll.
Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: IceSpear on August 04, 2014, 06:22:51 PM
This makes me feel better about Burke Gravis had her tied with Walker in the Governor poll.
There's no real point in trying to "skew" Gravis numbers back to reality. Just throw them in the trash can and move on.
Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: GaussLaw on August 04, 2014, 06:24:34 PM
Why is Gravis just doing 1 or 2 matchups per state?
It's so pointless given the huge number of potential GOP nominees.
It's so pointless given the huge number of potential GOP nominees.
Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: Suburbia on August 04, 2014, 06:58:38 PM
The poll may look crazy, but a Ryan-Clinton race in Wisconsin could be a tossup.
Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 04, 2014, 08:05:30 PM
Haha no.
Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: TJ in Oregon on August 04, 2014, 10:58:06 PM
I don't think I would have quite gotten the point without the bar graph :P
In any case, when a single poll has a result that seems to good to be true it probably is. We'll have to keep an eye out for reproducibility of this result by other firms of course.
In any case, when a single poll has a result that seems to good to be true it probably is. We'll have to keep an eye out for reproducibility of this result by other firms of course.
Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: pbrower2a on August 05, 2014, 05:48:49 PM
Technically, if it it is "too good to be true" it is almost certainly neither good nor true.
Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: free my dawg on August 05, 2014, 05:58:42 PM
>implying ryan will run
Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: TJ in Oregon on August 10, 2014, 11:02:56 PM
>implying ryan will run
Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: Dixie Reborn on August 10, 2014, 11:14:13 PM
Gravis pls
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Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: DS0816 on August 13, 2014, 09:48:22 PM
Gravis poll of Wisconsin:
http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/wisconsin-polling-scott-walker-and-mary-burke-47-47/
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http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/wisconsin-polling-scott-walker-and-mary-burke-47-47/
()
Dismissed.
Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: Mister Mets on August 14, 2014, 01:24:34 PM
Fun map.
If Ryan flips Wisconsin, neighboring Iowa, and the rust belt states of Pennsylvania and Ohio, it's an electoral tie.
(
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If Ryan flips Wisconsin, neighboring Iowa, and the rust belt states of Pennsylvania and Ohio, it's an electoral tie.
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Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: DrScholl on August 14, 2014, 05:50:44 PM
Ryan's worse performance for his House seat was in 2012, the same time he was on the presidential ticket, so I don't think he's got much ability to win statewide.
Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on August 14, 2014, 09:51:51 PM
I think I've only just stopped laughing...
Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: Mr. Illini on August 14, 2014, 11:55:49 PM
Just like choosing him as VP was going to put Wisconsin in play.
Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: Mister Mets on August 15, 2014, 04:50:36 PM
Just like choosing him as VP was going to put Wisconsin in play.
It is worth noting that Romney did nearly seven points better in Wisconsin than McCain did.
Ryan's worse performance for his House seat was in 2012, the same time he was on the presidential ticket, so I don't think he's got much ability to win statewide.
Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on August 16, 2014, 01:01:54 AM
Just like choosing him as VP was going to put Wisconsin in play.
It is worth noting that Romney did nearly seven points better in Wisconsin than McCain did.
Ryan's worse performance for his House seat was in 2012, the same time he was on the presidential ticket, so I don't think he's got much ability to win statewide.
...are you really trying to pull that one?
Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: IceSpear on August 16, 2014, 10:33:33 AM
Just like choosing him as VP was going to put Wisconsin in play.
It is worth noting that Romney did nearly seven points better in Wisconsin than McCain did.
Ryan's worse performance for his House seat was in 2012, the same time he was on the presidential ticket, so I don't think he's got much ability to win statewide.
...are you really trying to pull that one?
Yeah, Romney did 7 points better in Michigan as well.
Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: JRP1994 on August 16, 2014, 11:27:34 AM
Just like choosing him as VP was going to put Wisconsin in play.
It is worth noting that Romney did nearly seven points better in Wisconsin than McCain did.
Ryan's worse performance for his House seat was in 2012, the same time he was on the presidential ticket, so I don't think he's got much ability to win statewide.
...are you really trying to pull that one?
Yeah, Romney did 7 points better in Michigan as well.
The trend is what should be observed, rather than merely the swing.
Michigan trend, 2008-2012: R+3.57%
Wisconsin trend, 2008-2012: R+3.56%
Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: DS0816 on August 19, 2014, 05:35:54 PM
Just like choosing him as VP was going to put Wisconsin in play.
It is worth noting that Romney did nearly seven points better in Wisconsin than McCain did.
Ryan's worse performance for his House seat was in 2012, the same time he was on the presidential ticket, so I don't think he's got much ability to win statewide.
...are you really trying to pull that one?
Yeah, Romney did 7 points better in Michigan as well.
The trend is what should be observed, rather than merely the swing.
Michigan trend, 2008-2012: R+3.57%
Wisconsin trend, 2008-2012: R+3.56%
False.
Voting history counts as much as trend; if not, even more so. Trend is just a part of what "should be observed."
Title: Re: WI-Gravis: Ryan 48% Clinton 47%
Post by: Illuminati Blood Drinker on August 19, 2014, 07:45:28 PM
Fun map.
If Ryan flips Wisconsin, neighboring Iowa, and the rust belt states of Pennsylvania and Ohio, it's an electoral tie.
()
If Ryan flips Wisconsin, neighboring Iowa, and the rust belt states of Pennsylvania and Ohio, it's an electoral tie.
(