Talk Elections

43/41 in a 2-way race, 41/39 with minor candidates included. (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AR_8051118.pdf)

Pryor's approval and favorable/unfavorable percentages are terrible.

So Pryor is where he was early this year before his good string of polls.

His momentum basically died.

Wow,
35-51,
That is very low.

I now consider this race as at least tilt rep.

Every pollster has Pryor back to being behind, even his internals can only show him ahead by 2. His approval and favorability is terrible (Cotton's favorability is neutral). Third parties are a non-factor, and Arkansas is quite red.

Back to Lean R territory.

...we all saw this coming.

Even PPP? Then fall Pryor!

Yes, given the dynamics of this race, it's closer to Lean R than Tossup.

Ugh. That is bad news.

This entire senate race is bad news. Both candidates are atrocious.

Question is if the lead flips again or Cotton starts clawing up in September. Dems say Pryor's never been down in their internals, but apart from NV 2010 I can't think of a recent Lower 48 case where private polls completely contradicted public ones.

Tilt R

I would say those numbers aren't that bad for Pryor. So many female undecideds is great news for him.

RIP Democratic Senate majority.

Excellent News! That theocrat Mark Pryor will be crushed!

Cotton isn't necessary for the majority. So long as we hold Alaska, Colorado, and Iowa we are fine.

Landrieu has a better chance at holding on (although I think she loses the run-off), and Nunn or Grimes making it through secures the majority.

Even though democrats will lose this seat, they still should have one congressional seat after this election and 2 by 2020 because of the third.

New Poll: Arkansas Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-08-03 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5220140803108)

Summary: D: 41%, R: 43%, I: 0%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/08/arkansas-senate-race-still-a-toss-up.html)

Enough with the "we" stuff

Not if Hagan loses.

Is French Hill really that bad of a candidate?

Dream on.

Who did? The conventional wisdom here for quite a while was that Pryor was going to get Blanched. Pryor is probably going to lose, but at least he's keeping it competitive.

No, Pat Hays is that good of a candidate.  He's from a swing part of the district, his name rec is amazing to all of the district, and he is doing much better with voters outside of Pulaski County.  On the other side of that, French is doing better with Pulaski voters.

Something else, Here is what I would expect a democrat to get in a election in 2020.
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In the unlikely event that a white liberal wins a district in Arkansas, redistricting can promptly throw him out in 2 years.

Actually no, by 2022, they won't be able to have all four of the seats, they will have to draw a sink, anyways that will be moot after Benton county starts to become more progressive, which every political consultant in the states says will happen.

Actually no, by 2022, they won't be able to have all four of the seats, they will have to draw a sink, anyways that will be moot after Benton county starts to become more progressive, which every political consultant in the states says will happen.

I think he was talking about about a mid-decade redistricting, assuming Hutchison wins and the legislature stays the same.

Because, ya know, God forbid Arkansans demcoratically elect an awful white liberal. We certainly can't have that!

I don't think Mid decade redistricting isn't allowed in the state.  No matter, any other map would be worse for republicans, so they won't do it.

Why would Benton be more progressive?  It's one of the most Republican counties in the state.

Is this like NoVA or something?

I don't quite understand it either. Historically its the most republican county and still is one of the most. We've seen many historically republican areas turn not as republican (Chicago suburbs, Southern California) but it hasn't trended democratic since before 2000.

Yeah.  And the left is no fan of Wal Mart, which is headquartered in that county.  So the "upscale educated cosmopolitan suburbanites" or whatever (who are mischaracterized as always voting Democratic, which is refuted by a bunch of examples[Douglas County, CO; Hamilton County, IN; St. Tammany Parish, LA; etc.] ) are not exactly going to be flocking to the Democrats.

Since the county has trended R 4 elections in a row, the only way I see it trending D is a massive influx of minorities.

Yes.  The area in 2012 in low turnout primary election got rid of there ban on alcohol by a 66-34 vote.  Minority's are a factor, but most of it is due to the urbanization of the area and the growing arts scene.  It won't happen for another few election cycles, but it is trending Democratic, Obama skewed it.

Go to this link and go to about 13:45 on the video.  Those guys are the best guys in the state and they explain this much better.
http://youtu.be/b23VoWiI9xs?list=UUSzc0eabet1fw2z73oil0Hg (http://youtu.be/b23VoWiI9xs?list=UUSzc0eabet1fw2z73oil0Hg)

Wow.  This is a really nice video.  I love the in-depth analysis.