Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2014 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: JRP1994 on August 12, 2014, 10:22:58 am



Title: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: JRP1994 on August 12, 2014, 10:22:58 am
http://t.co/y8Xlgxyvb5
(I hope that link works)

McConnell: 44%
Grimes: 40


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: krazen1211 on August 12, 2014, 10:24:02 am
Even PPP, huh.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: RogueBeaver on August 12, 2014, 10:26:34 am
47/42 with leaners, disapproval easing. Republicans coming home.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: Tender Branson on August 12, 2014, 10:26:42 am
It should be noted that PPP has now started to switch to "likely voters":

Quote
PPP surveyed 991 likely voters from August 7th to August 10th. The margin of error for the sample is +/-3.1 %. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who donít have landline telephones.

Also:

Quote
Q5 Horse race, with Patterson supporters asked if they would vote McConnell or Grimes:

Mitch McConnell ............................................. 47%
Alison Lundergan Grimes ............................... 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: Maxwell on August 12, 2014, 10:28:57 am
This is not great news for Grimes. If numbers keep going in McConnell's direction, I'll move it back to Lean R.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: Senator Cris on August 12, 2014, 10:33:20 am
Quote
Among undecided voters McConnell has a 10% approval rating to 66% who disapprove of him- gives Grimes opportunity

Quote
38% of the voters who disapprove of McConnell also disapprove of Obama


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: Mr. Illini on August 12, 2014, 10:43:20 am
:(


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: Free Bird on August 12, 2014, 12:07:19 pm
But, muh PPP


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: Mayor Steve Pearce on August 12, 2014, 12:32:49 pm
Looks about reasonable. Have the nukes been flying or are people starting to come home to the GOP?


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on August 12, 2014, 12:36:26 pm
Looks about reasonable. Have the nukes been flying or are people starting to come home to the GOP?

Haven't heard much at all about this race in the past week or so.

What's really interesting is that Democrat Conway leads the entire GOP field for governor. But this isn't a slam dunk, because you can count on the right-wing media machine to kick into high gear.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: Maxwell on August 12, 2014, 12:39:20 pm
Looks about reasonable. Have the nukes been flying or are people starting to come home to the GOP?

Haven't heard much at all about this race in the past week or so.

What's really interesting is that Democrat Conway leads the entire GOP field for governor. But this isn't a slam dunk, because you can count on the right-wing media machine to kick into high gear.

Conway is also much better known than the GOP candidates, and even with that name rec bump, he only leads Comers by 3, not a real convincing margin.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on August 12, 2014, 12:41:51 pm
Conway is also much better known than the GOP candidates, and even with that name rec bump, he only leads Comers by 3, not a real convincing margin.

People don't know yet that Comer is a Tea Party member.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on August 12, 2014, 01:46:28 pm
Yeah, seems like Grimes' chances are plummeting.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: IceSpear on August 12, 2014, 03:40:38 pm
It should be noted that PPP has now started to switch to "likely voters":

Quote
PPP surveyed 991 likely voters from August 7th to August 10th. The margin of error for the sample is +/-3.1 %. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who donít have landline telephones.

Also:

Quote
Q5 Horse race, with Patterson supporters asked if they would vote McConnell or Grimes:

Mitch McConnell ............................................. 47%
Alison Lundergan Grimes ............................... 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

I just saw them say on Twitter a few weeks ago that they don't switch to likely voters until after Labor Day. Strange.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 12, 2014, 04:07:46 pm
It is finished.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: Neolibs Love Corporations on August 12, 2014, 04:45:17 pm
Conway is also much better known than the GOP candidates, and even with that name rec bump, he only leads Comers by 3, not a real convincing margin.

People don't know yet that Comer is a Tea Party member.

Correct. Once they find out Comer should be comfortably ahead.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: olowakandi on August 12, 2014, 05:13:05 pm
It is finished.

Grimes isnt done yet, she will respond since she is down.

I expect KY to go down to very end.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on August 12, 2014, 05:15:02 pm
For as much as McConnell needs to go, I gotta admit that if Grimes doesn't start talking about the minimum wage and the right to unionize, she won't pull it off.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: olowakandi on August 12, 2014, 05:27:24 pm
A lead that most polls have showed her within 4 pts, doesnt mean she is finished. Right now most older voters side with McConnell, but she is far from done.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: Jbrase on August 12, 2014, 05:34:56 pm
But Grimes will win the cities and the New America votes, HOW IS THAT FAIR? [/Bandit the Crazy]


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: #WalkAwayFromDesantis on August 12, 2014, 05:48:02 pm
If we couldn't take out McConnell in a strong Dem wave year in 2008, then it is going to be very tough to win against him this year.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on August 12, 2014, 05:49:39 pm
If we couldn't take out McConnell in a strong Dem wave year in 2008, then it is going to be very tough to win against him this year.

McConnell was running against Bruce Lunsford of all people in 2008.

Bruce freaking Lunsford.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: IceSpear on August 12, 2014, 05:50:02 pm
If we couldn't take out McConnell in a strong Dem wave year in 2008, then it is going to be very tough to win against him this year.

2008 wasn't exactly a "Dem wave year" in Kentucky, considering Obama was on the ballot and he did very poorly there. Besides, Grimes is a much better candidate than Lunsford, and McConnell is more unpopular than he was in 2008.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 12, 2014, 06:27:29 pm
But! But! Bandit! I thought Mitch was going I plummet after he "bombed" at Fancy Feast.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: GaussLaw on August 12, 2014, 06:31:06 pm
But! But! Bandit! I thought Mitch was going I plummet after he "bombed" at Fancy Feast.

I don't get this notion that McConnell "bombed" at Fancy Feast.  Voters in KY don't like Obama, and McConnell was able to tap into that sentiment quite well. 

Anyways, RV -> LV changes things up.  We all knew this would happen, which is why Silver wrote in 538 that one must take current Congressional Ballot polls with a grain of salt.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: SWE on August 13, 2014, 12:04:23 pm
Grimes will be crushed, of course. The idea that Democrats will pick up Georgia and Kentucky is cute.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: memphis on August 13, 2014, 12:40:17 pm
Wait, did McConnell appear on a cat food commercial? It's clear that he has a *small* lead right now, but the election is still nearly three months away, and he is up by four. It's delusional to say the race is over.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: IceSpear on August 14, 2014, 05:21:46 am
Grimes will be crushed, of course. The idea that Democrats will pick up Georgia and Kentucky is cute.

How do you define "crushed"? Even if McConnell wins, there's no way in hell it will be by double digits, and I'd be very shocked if it was by more than 5.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: Badger on August 14, 2014, 10:17:16 am
Quote
Among undecided voters McConnell has a 10% approval rating to 66% who disapprove of him- gives Grimes opportunity

Quote
38% of the voters who disapprove of McConnell also disapprove of Obama

Look closely kids, someone asutely spotted the central issue of this race: Whether the undecided voters' dislike of Obama is sufficiently stronger than their dislike of McConnell to forego supporting Grimes.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on August 14, 2014, 10:18:12 am
Look closely kids, someone asutely spotted the central issue of this race: Whether the undecided voters' dislike of Obama is sufficiently stronger than their dislike of McConnell to forego supporting Grimes.

Grimes isn't Obama.

But McConnell is McConnell.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: olowakandi on August 14, 2014, 01:44:24 pm
Grimes will be crushed, of course. The idea that Democrats will pick up Georgia and Kentucky is cute.

Take a look at Wi and KS gubernatorial elections, Dems can pick up. It is a reform yr, and anti incumbant yr, McConnell isnt safe.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: Maxwell on August 14, 2014, 02:01:13 pm
Grimes will be crushed, of course. The idea that Democrats will pick up Georgia and Kentucky is cute.

Take a look at Wi and KS gubernatorial elections, Dems can pick up. It is a reform yr, and anti incumbant yr, McConnell isnt safe.

Come on dude, year is only a 4 letter word.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: Badger on August 14, 2014, 06:15:10 pm
Look closely kids, someone asutely spotted the central issue of this race: Whether the undecided voters' dislike of Obama is sufficiently stronger than their dislike of McConnell to forego supporting Grimes.

Grimes isn't Obama.

But McConnell is McConnell.

Which is exactly my point. Most undecided voters in this race dislike Obama and McConnell, but dislike Obama more. The question is whether that Obama hate is sufficiently greater for those who dislike McConnell to reject a non-Obama Democrat.

My take, advantage McConnell, but don't write Grimes off.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: McConnell +4%
Post by: SWE on August 14, 2014, 07:38:25 pm
Grimes will be crushed, of course. The idea that Democrats will pick up Georgia and Kentucky is cute.

Take a look at Wi and KS gubernatorial elections, Dems can pick up. It is a reform yr, and anti incumbant yr, McConnell isnt safe.
There's a big difference between winning a gubernatorial race and a senate race