Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Miles on August 15, 2014, 10:15:53 AM



Title: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: Miles on August 15, 2014, 10:15:53 AM
Link coming.

Walker (R)- 48%
Burke (D)- 47%


Title: Re: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on August 15, 2014, 02:32:39 PM
I will take this, its a Rassy poll, Burke is close enough.to.win.


Title: Re: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: Vosem on August 15, 2014, 03:16:53 PM
There've been lots of polls that show ties or Walker leads within the margin of error, but I can't recall the last time (if ever) I've seen a poll with a Burke lead.


Title: Re: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: Vega on August 15, 2014, 03:40:28 PM
Still Lean R.


Title: Re: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: Miles on August 15, 2014, 04:29:41 PM
There've been lots of polls that show ties or Walker leads within the margin of error, but I can't recall the last time (if ever) I've seen a poll with a Burke lead.

Marquette had Burke up 1 with LVs in their poll at the end of last month. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=196075.0)


Title: Re: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on August 15, 2014, 04:37:29 PM
There've been lots of polls that show ties or Walker leads within the margin of error, but I can't recall the last time (if ever) I've seen a poll with a Burke lead.

It isnt a recall election in which Walker ran against a flawed candidate, Barrett.

Burke can keep it close and win on election day.


Title: Re: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: IceSpear on August 15, 2014, 04:53:16 PM
()

Lean R/Lean D!


Title: Re: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on August 15, 2014, 05:07:53 PM
Marquette is the best pollster when it comes to Wisconsin, but unless they find Burke with a larger lead or other pollsters (PPP, Quinnipac, SUSA) find Burke up, still tilt/lean R.


Title: Re: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: IceSpear on August 15, 2014, 05:20:39 PM
Marquette is the best pollster when it comes to Wisconsin, but unless they find Burke with a larger lead or other pollsters (PPP, Quinnipac, SUSA) find Burke up, still tilt/lean R.

Every single poll since April has shown either a 1 point Walker lead, a tie, or 1 point Burke lead. This race is the definition of toss up. To call it "lean R" is completely nonsensical.


Title: Re: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: Vega on August 15, 2014, 05:23:04 PM
Marquette is the best pollster when it comes to Wisconsin, but unless they find Burke with a larger lead or other pollsters (PPP, Quinnipac, SUSA) find Burke up, still tilt/lean R.

Every single poll since April has shown either a 1 point Walker lead, a tie, or 1 point Burke lead. This race is the definition of toss up. To call it "lean R" is completely nonsensical.

It's Lean R in my opinion because Walker won in a recall election. It's not crazy to think he'll win a General Election.


Title: Re: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: IceSpear on August 15, 2014, 05:51:36 PM
Marquette is the best pollster when it comes to Wisconsin, but unless they find Burke with a larger lead or other pollsters (PPP, Quinnipac, SUSA) find Burke up, still tilt/lean R.

Every single poll since April has shown either a 1 point Walker lead, a tie, or 1 point Burke lead. This race is the definition of toss up. To call it "lean R" is completely nonsensical.

It's Lean R in my opinion because Walker won in a recall election. It's not crazy to think he'll win a General Election.

It's not crazy to think he'll win. It's crazy to think he has a strong advantage since all evidence points to the contrary. Barrett was a weak candidate, and the exit poll overwhelmingly showed that voters thought recalls should only be used for official misconduct, not because people disliked their policies. That padded Walker's margin as well.


Title: Re: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: Lief 🗽 on August 15, 2014, 06:01:38 PM
Democrats always do better on election day than they do in the polls. Even Feingold lost by less than polls were saying he would.


Title: Re: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on August 15, 2014, 06:03:15 PM
Marquette is the best pollster when it comes to Wisconsin, but unless they find Burke with a larger lead or other pollsters (PPP, Quinnipac, SUSA) find Burke up, still tilt/lean R.

Every single poll since April has shown either a 1 point Walker lead, a tie, or 1 point Burke lead. This race is the definition of toss up. To call it "lean R" is completely nonsensical.

It's learn R because the fundamentals favor Walker. Obama is unpopular, it's a midterm, and Democratic turnout will be down. If the race were tied going into election day, he'd be my bet.


Title: Re: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: IceSpear on August 15, 2014, 06:07:46 PM
Marquette is the best pollster when it comes to Wisconsin, but unless they find Burke with a larger lead or other pollsters (PPP, Quinnipac, SUSA) find Burke up, still tilt/lean R.

Every single poll since April has shown either a 1 point Walker lead, a tie, or 1 point Burke lead. This race is the definition of toss up. To call it "lean R" is completely nonsensical.

It's learn R because the fundamentals favor Walker. Obama is unpopular, it's a midterm, and Democratic turnout will be down. If the race were tied going into election day, he'd be my bet.

But the fundamentals are already baked into the polls. In fact, Marquette's LV screen showed Burke doing better among LVs than RVs. I'd probably narrowly give the win to Walker as well if I had to predict, but his slight advantage is not really worthy of the "lean" label, at least in my opinion.


Title: Re: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: KCDem on August 15, 2014, 09:12:29 PM
Definitely a tossup race: either could win. This is Wisconsin and it will all come down to turnout (duh). If I had to call it now, I would say Walker hangs on. He has the money and a loyal committed voting base. Come November, things may be different.


Title: Re: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: SWE on August 17, 2014, 11:18:28 PM
Marquette is the best pollster when it comes to Wisconsin, but unless they find Burke with a larger lead or other pollsters (PPP, Quinnipac, SUSA) find Burke up, still tilt/lean R.

Every single poll since April has shown either a 1 point Walker lead, a tie, or 1 point Burke lead. This race is the definition of toss up. To call it "lean R" is completely nonsensical.

It's Lean R in my opinion because Walker won in a recall election. It's not crazy to think he'll win a General Election.

It's not crazy to think he'll win. It's crazy to think he has a strong advantage since all evidence points to the contrary. Barrett was a weak candidate, and the exit poll overwhelmingly showed that voters thought recalls should only be used for official misconduct, not because people disliked their policies. That padded Walker's margin as well.
Lean R =/= a strong advantage. It means he's a slight favorite.


Title: Re: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: IceSpear on August 18, 2014, 04:34:06 PM
Marquette is the best pollster when it comes to Wisconsin, but unless they find Burke with a larger lead or other pollsters (PPP, Quinnipac, SUSA) find Burke up, still tilt/lean R.

Every single poll since April has shown either a 1 point Walker lead, a tie, or 1 point Burke lead. This race is the definition of toss up. To call it "lean R" is completely nonsensical.

It's Lean R in my opinion because Walker won in a recall election. It's not crazy to think he'll win a General Election.

It's not crazy to think he'll win. It's crazy to think he has a strong advantage since all evidence points to the contrary. Barrett was a weak candidate, and the exit poll overwhelmingly showed that voters thought recalls should only be used for official misconduct, not because people disliked their policies. That padded Walker's margin as well.
Lean R =/= a strong advantage. It means he's a slight favorite.

Depends on one's definition of the term. I could see this being described as "lean R" if one refuses to ever use the term "toss up".


Title: Re: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: Panda Express on August 18, 2014, 06:58:53 PM
This should be one of the biggest targets for Democrats this year. Scott Walker has been a major villain for the Democrats and is a presidential contender. Knocking him out would be a big victory even if the rest of the election night goes poorly.


Title: Re: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on August 19, 2014, 09:00:48 AM
This should be one of the biggest targets for Democrats this year. Scott Walker has been a major villain for the Democrats and is a presidential contender. Knocking him out would be a big victory even if the rest of the election night goes poorly.

A 50-49 senate isnt as bad as a 49-50 senate.


Title: Re: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: International Brotherhood of Bernard on August 19, 2014, 09:31:30 AM
This should be one of the biggest targets for Democrats this year. Scott Walker has been a major villain for the Democrats and is a presidential contender. Knocking him out would be a big victory even if the rest of the election night goes poorly.

A 50-49 senate isnt as bad as a 49-50 senate.
What does this have to do with the Senate?


Title: Re: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: SWE on August 19, 2014, 02:09:28 PM
This should be one of the biggest targets for Democrats this year. Scott Walker has been a major villain for the Democrats and is a presidential contender. Knocking him out would be a big victory even if the rest of the election night goes poorly.

A 50-49 senate isnt as bad as a 49-50 senate.
What does this have to do with the Senate?
What do any OC posts have to do with anything?


Title: Re: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: NHLiberal on August 19, 2014, 02:14:29 PM
This should be one of the biggest targets for Democrats this year. Scott Walker has been a major villain for the Democrats and is a presidential contender. Knocking him out would be a big victory even if the rest of the election night goes poorly.

A 50-49 senate isnt as bad as a 49-50 senate.

What about the 100th seat?


Title: Re: WI: Rasmussen: Burke about even with Walker
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on August 19, 2014, 04:25:30 PM
The 100th seat will depend largely on if La or Ga go into a runoff situation.

We can afford to lose the 100th seat should we have 50 -votes already, because of King and Biden.