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Title: KS: Public Policy Polling: Roberts +7 with Orman (I) at 23 Post by: RI on August 19, 2014, 12:06:18 PM New Poll: Kansas Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-08-17 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=20220140817108)
Summary: D: 25%, R: 32%, I: 23%, U: 20% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_KS_819925.pdf) In two-way, it's Roberts 43, Taylor 39 Title: Re: KS: Public Policy Polling: Roberts +7 with Orman (I) at 23 Post by: NHLiberal on August 19, 2014, 12:15:01 PM Weird. Orman is actually leading a two-way matchup with Roberts, by 10, so a lot of his support is presumably just coming from pissed off Republicans. Not so sure about this...
One troubling piece for Roberts though is that voters think he doesn't spend enough time in Kansas 61-18 and think he considers DC his home rather than Kansas 50-30. There's also his 27-44 approval... Title: Re: KS: Public Policy Polling: Roberts +7 with Orman (I) at 23 Post by: Maxwell on August 19, 2014, 12:20:14 PM Orman's percentage of the vote is amazing, even more amazing is the fact that only 36% of Kansas voters even know who he is. Either he's just an opposition choice and his numbers will take a dive towards election day, or he could be a serious candidate to actually win the seat.
The thing is, though, even less people know who Chad Taylor is. Title: Re: KS: Public Policy Polling: Roberts +7 with Orman (I) at 23 Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 19, 2014, 12:21:14 PM What the hell is going on in Kansas?
Title: Re: KS: Public Policy Polling: Roberts +7 with Orman (I) at 23 Post by: eric82oslo on August 19, 2014, 02:14:12 PM http://www.ormanforsenate.com/
He seems like a common sense guy. :P Take a look at introduction video on his campaign website, it's pretty effective. Title: Re: KS: Public Policy Polling: Roberts +7 with Orman (I) at 23 Post by: NHLiberal on August 19, 2014, 02:25:03 PM http://www.ormanforsenate.com/ He seems like a common sense guy. :P Take a look at introduction video on his campaign website, it's pretty effective. I read through the issues page. He's an interesting question, seems to be more on the left than the right (which makes sense, he ran as a Dem in 2008), but certainly toward the middle. This part is interesting, under the "Which party will you caucus with?" Quote If I’m elected, there’s a reasonable chance that neither party would have a majority in the US Senate. If that is the case, I will work with the other independent Senators to caucus with the party that is most willing to face our country’s difficult problems head on and advance our problem-solving, non-partisan agenda. When it comes time to support a candidate for Majority Leader, I would encourage both parties to select a leader who has a demonstrated track record of working across the aisle as one indicator of his or her willingness to solve problems. I will look at responsible leaders from both sides like Democrat Heidi Heitkamp and Republican Lisa Murkowski who are willing to cross party lines to vote for what is right. Both Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell have been too partisan for far too long to earn my vote for Majority Leader. With that said, if one party is clearly in the majority, I will seek to caucus with the party that was in the majority as that would be in the best interest for the state of Kansas. Title: Re: KS: Public Policy Polling: Roberts +7 with Orman (I) at 23 Post by: The Other Castro on August 19, 2014, 03:08:52 PM What the hell is going on in Kansas? Title: Re: KS: Public Policy Polling: Roberts +7 with Orman (I) at 23 Post by: IceSpear on August 19, 2014, 04:34:38 PM I still think it's just pissed off teabaggers dragging down Roberts' numbers. Looks like Wolf really wounded him with the residency attacks. Still, it would take a miracle for him to lose.
Title: Re: KS: Public Policy Polling: Roberts +7 with Orman (I) at 23 Post by: eric82oslo on August 19, 2014, 04:40:24 PM I still think it's just pissed off teabaggers dragging down Roberts' numbers. Looks like Wolf really wounded him with the residency attacks. Still, it would take a miracle for him to lose. When 68% of your state's residents don't support you despite the heavy advantages of incumbency, clearly it wouldn't take a miracle for you to lose. Title: Re: KS: Public Policy Polling: Roberts +7 with Orman (I) at 23 Post by: IceSpear on August 19, 2014, 04:52:59 PM I still think it's just pissed off teabaggers dragging down Roberts' numbers. Looks like Wolf really wounded him with the residency attacks. Still, it would take a miracle for him to lose. When 68% of your state's residents don't support you despite the heavy advantages of incumbency, clearly it wouldn't take a miracle for you to lose. It does when a lot of his opposition is from the right and his two opponents are from the left. Title: Re: KS: Public Policy Polling: Roberts +7 with Orman (I) at 23 Post by: eric82oslo on August 19, 2014, 05:51:17 PM I still think it's just pissed off teabaggers dragging down Roberts' numbers. Looks like Wolf really wounded him with the residency attacks. Still, it would take a miracle for him to lose. When 68% of your state's residents don't support you despite the heavy advantages of incumbency, clearly it wouldn't take a miracle for you to lose. It does when a lot of his opposition is from the right and his two opponents are from the left. His opposition comes entirely from Kansans who want to be represented by a fellow Kansan, not a D.C. metro resident. When you've entirely lost touch with where you come from, and as a result happen to be almost as unpopular as Milton Wolf, who thinks the funniest thing in the world is to make fun of dead people, particularily dead people who were shot dead and had their head split in two, it says a lot about where you stand in people's sense of esteem for you. Title: Re: KS: Public Policy Polling: Roberts +7 with Orman (I) at 23 Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 19, 2014, 06:27:21 PM Republicans in Kansas are the new most interesting group of people.
Title: Re: KS: Public Policy Polling: Roberts +7 with Orman (I) at 23 Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on August 20, 2014, 07:53:42 AM Chad Taylor needs to drop out.
Title: Re: KS: Public Policy Polling: Roberts +7 with Orman (I) at 23 Post by: IceSpear on August 20, 2014, 09:50:21 AM Chad Taylor needs to drop out. Yeah, this should seriously be considered, since Orman looks like he'd be more likely to caucus with the Dems than the Reps. Title: Re: KS: Public Policy Polling: Roberts +7 with Orman (I) at 23 Post by: Badger on August 20, 2014, 01:18:47 PM Weird. Orman is actually leading a two-way matchup with Roberts, by 10, so a lot of his support is presumably just coming from pissed off Republicans. Not so sure about this... One troubling piece for Roberts though is that voters think he doesn't spend enough time in Kansas 61-18 and think he considers DC his home rather than Kansas 50-30. There's also his 27-44 approval... If Dems were smart, they'd try their damndest cutting a deal with Orman and Taylor. Taylor drops out in exchange for Orman's private pledge to caucus with the Dems (at least if he's the 50th+ vote for a Dem majority), and Taylor gets his first choice of an appointment in a Davis administration, a fed job of choosing, or the party's backing for office of his choice. Not likely to happen considering these numbers are probably giving Taylor dreams of being the first Democrat senator from KS in 75 years. It'll be beyond hard for him to let go after devoting his life to this race for the last year or two. Title: Re: KS: Public Policy Polling: Roberts +7 with Orman (I) at 23 Post by: tmthforu94 on August 20, 2014, 04:46:30 PM Orman was actually going to run for the Democratic nomination originally but didn't think he could have beaten Taylor (he would have, IMO).
Not too surprising - Orman has been all over the media here. I really think he would have won this race had Wolf won the GOP nomination. As it stands, his only chance is if Taylor completely implodes. As to the talks of who he caucuses with, I believe he has said he will caucus with whoever wins the majority. That being said, it'll be interesting to see what happens if it's 50-49 GOP. I imagine he would caucus with the Republicans as it increases his shot at re-election, but we'll see. Title: Re: KS: Public Policy Polling: Roberts +7 with Orman (I) at 23 Post by: windjammer on August 20, 2014, 05:13:19 PM Tmthforu,
Why Brownback and the rep senator are so unpopular? I mean, that's Kansas, one of the reddest states of the country. Title: Re: KS: Public Policy Polling: Roberts +7 with Orman (I) at 23 Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on August 21, 2014, 12:25:04 PM Orman was actually going to run for the Democratic nomination originally but didn't think he could have beaten Taylor (he would have, IMO). Not too surprising - Orman has been all over the media here. I really think he would have won this race had Wolf won the GOP nomination. As it stands, his only chance is if Taylor completely implodes. As to the talks of who he caucuses with, I believe he has said he will caucus with whoever wins the majority. That being said, it'll be interesting to see what happens if it's 50-49 GOP. I imagine he would caucus with the Republicans as it increases his shot at re-election, but we'll see. I doubt it since he used to be a Democrat and doesn't strike me as a tow-the-party-line type. He'd get tea-bagged out of office instantly if he caucused with the Republicans and ran for re-election in their party's primary, surely he realizes that. As for Taylor, it probably depends how much of a team player he is. Is he a Kendrick Meek or a Buddy Roemer? |