Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2014 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Senator Cris on August 26, 2014, 11:46:05 AM



Title: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Senator Cris on August 26, 2014, 11:46:05 AM
Braley (D) 41%
Ernst (R) 40%
Others 5%

Horse race:

Braley (D) 42%
Ernst (R) 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_IA_826930.pdf


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Anti Democrat Democrat Club on August 26, 2014, 11:46:34 AM
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/08/iowa-senate-race-tied.html

Braley 42
Ernst 41
Others 5

Worth noting that undecideds lean Democratic.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on August 26, 2014, 11:47:11 AM
Uugh, not quite enough to feel comfortable.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Senator Cris on August 26, 2014, 11:47:49 AM
Horse race. 42-42


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: backtored on August 26, 2014, 11:50:22 AM
"Anyone's game"

As it's been for at least the last couple of months.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Senator Cris on August 26, 2014, 11:50:26 AM
In the article, Braley has 42% and Ernst has 41% but in the crosstabs Braley has 41% and Ernst 40%.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Never on August 26, 2014, 11:51:16 AM
This is good news, considering their last poll had Braley up 6.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: SWE on August 26, 2014, 11:51:29 AM
"Anyone's game"

As it's been for at least the last couple of months.
wow really I had no idea


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Senator Cris on August 26, 2014, 11:58:11 AM
Yes. Good news for the GOP, but...

Quote
The good news for Braley in spite of his vanished lead is that the undecideds play well for him- they report having voted for Barack Obama by 13 points in 2012, and 35% are Democrats to 26% who are Republicans. They are also disproportionately female and young voters, groups that tend to play to Democrats' advantage. But clearly Braley has work to do.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Senator Cris on August 26, 2014, 11:58:40 AM
Ops. We have two similar threads :P


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Anti Democrat Democrat Club on August 26, 2014, 12:20:11 PM
...wow, did I just crosspost this thirty seconds after you did?


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Person Man on August 26, 2014, 12:28:54 PM
So, if Braley loses, it was because he was a sh**t campaigner.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 26, 2014, 12:30:34 PM
So, if Braley loses, it was because he was a sh**t campaigner.

Yes. Ernst can't win, but Braley can lose.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Maxwell on August 26, 2014, 01:24:32 PM
Braley and Ernst are both pretty unpopular, but Braley is leading because Ernst is more hated.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Free Bird on August 26, 2014, 01:42:09 PM
Democratic pollster
Margin of error.

Truly anyone's game


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Gass3268 on August 26, 2014, 01:43:07 PM
So, if Braley loses, it was because he was a sh**t campaigner.

Yes. Ernst can't win, but Braley can lose.

Braley and Ernst are both pretty unpopular, but Braley is leading because Ernst is more hated.

I agree with both of these points. Ernst has the potential to say even more crazy things, which I think will sway the race. It will still be very close.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Maxwell on August 26, 2014, 02:12:40 PM
Democratic pollster
Margin of error.

Truly anyone's game

PPP, with the exception of their internals, which I question, is fairly accurate in most states (exception for AK, HI, and WV) even with questionable methods. I'd trust this poll as a barometer for how the race looks right now, along with any Quinnipiac poll.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Free Bird on August 26, 2014, 02:21:05 PM
Democratic pollster
Margin of error.

Truly anyone's game

PPP, with the exception of their internals, which I question, is fairly accurate in most states (exception for AK, HI, and WV) even with questionable methods. I'd trust this poll as a barometer for how the race looks right now, along with any Quinnipiac poll.

It's still a statistical tie with the MoE


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Maxwell on August 26, 2014, 02:24:32 PM
Democratic pollster
Margin of error.

Truly anyone's game

PPP, with the exception of their internals, which I question, is fairly accurate in most states (exception for AK, HI, and WV) even with questionable methods. I'd trust this poll as a barometer for how the race looks right now, along with any Quinnipiac poll.

It's still a statistical tie with the MoE

I'm not disagreeing with that. I agree with your statement that it's truly anyone's game. I'm just saying that characterizing PPP as a democratic firm is unfair to their level of accuracy in most races.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Matty on August 26, 2014, 04:40:14 PM
I just don't see a republican pickup here. Obama won the state handily in 12.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Maxwell on August 26, 2014, 04:43:44 PM
I just don't see a republican pickup here. Obama won the state handily in 12.

It's not 2012, and the Democrat is certainly no Obama in terms of campaign skill. It's whether Ernst's campaigning skill can override her craziness.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: DrScholl on August 26, 2014, 05:18:46 PM
I know people here really like Ernst, but this is fool's gold. At this point, if she can't manage an actual lead and none of her crazy antics have been put into ads yet, she's not going to win.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Maxwell on August 26, 2014, 05:23:08 PM
I know people here really like Ernst, but this is fool's gold. At this point, if she can't manage an actual lead and none of her crazy antics have been put into ads yet, she's not going to win.

Nobody "likes" Ernst here, you're arguing with nobody.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: DrScholl on August 26, 2014, 05:24:04 PM
I know people here really like Ernst, but this is fool's gold. At this point, if she can't manage an actual lead and none of her crazy antics have been put into ads yet, she's not going to win.

Nobody "likes" Ernst here, you're arguing with nobody.

You're the one trying to start an argument. It seems like quite a few people here overestimate certain candidates, and Ernst is one of them. That's a certain degree of like.

There is a poster here who claimed that Ernst just misspoke and that Democrats were unfairly attacking her, so it's not like there is "nobody" on here who likes or supports Ernst.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: The Other Castro on August 26, 2014, 05:28:01 PM
I know people here really like Ernst, but this is fool's gold. At this point, if she can't manage an actual lead and none of her crazy antics have been put into ads yet, she's not going to win.

Nobody "likes" Ernst here, you're arguing with nobody.

You're the one trying to start an argument. It seems like quite a few people here overestimate certain candidates, and Ernst is one of them. That's a certain degree of like.

There is a poster here who claimed that Ernst just misspoke and that Democrats were unfairly attacking her, so it's not like there is "nobody" on here who likes or supports Ernst.


It's not that people are overestimating her, it's that people are correctly estimating how bad a campaigner Braley is.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Free Bird on August 26, 2014, 05:37:41 PM
I know people here really like Ernst, but this is fool's gold. At this point, if she can't manage an actual lead and none of her crazy antics have been put into ads yet, she's not going to win.

Nobody "likes" Ernst here, you're arguing with nobody.

You're the one trying to start an argument. It seems like quite a few people here overestimate certain candidates, and Ernst is one of them. That's a certain degree of like.

There is a poster here who claimed that Ernst just misspoke and that Democrats were unfairly attacking her, so it's not like there is "nobody" on here who likes or supports Ernst.


It's not that people are overestimating her, it's that people are correctly estimating how bad a campaigner Braley is.

THIS


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Never on August 26, 2014, 06:32:30 PM
I know people here really like Ernst, but this is fool's gold. At this point, if she can't manage an actual lead and none of her crazy antics have been put into ads yet, she's not going to win.

Nobody "likes" Ernst here, you're arguing with nobody.

()


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: KCDem on August 26, 2014, 06:39:57 PM
I know people here really like Ernst, but this is fool's gold. At this point, if she can't manage an actual lead and none of her crazy antics have been put into ads yet, she's not going to win.

Nobody "likes" Ernst here, you're arguing with nobody.

()

Gross.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Dixie Reborn on August 27, 2014, 10:41:37 AM
I know people here really like Ernst, but this is fool's gold. At this point, if she can't manage an actual lead and none of her crazy antics have been put into ads yet, she's not going to win.

Nobody "likes" Ernst here, you're arguing with nobody.

()

Gross.

I support Ernst. Btw it is not in good form to call people who don't agree with you "gross".


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Anti Democrat Democrat Club on August 27, 2014, 12:18:51 PM
I know people here really like Ernst, but this is fool's gold. At this point, if she can't manage an actual lead and none of her crazy antics have been put into ads yet, she's not going to win.

Nobody "likes" Ernst here, you're arguing with nobody.

()

Gross.

I support Ernst. Btw it is not in good form to call people who don't agree with you "gross".

Ernst is Michele Bachmann with a pitchfork. Supporting her is gross.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Never on August 27, 2014, 12:50:10 PM
I know people here really like Ernst, but this is fool's gold. At this point, if she can't manage an actual lead and none of her crazy antics have been put into ads yet, she's not going to win.

Nobody "likes" Ernst here, you're arguing with nobody.

()

Gross.

I support Ernst. Btw it is not in good form to call people who don't agree with you "gross".

Ernst is Michele Bachmann with a pitchfork. Supporting her is gross.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, but I still like Ernst regardless of other people's negative view of her.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Senator Cris on August 27, 2014, 01:00:46 PM
Quote
Everyone is entitled to their own opinions


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Anti Democrat Democrat Club on August 27, 2014, 02:47:56 PM
...and I'm also entitled to mine, and mine just so happens to be that Joni Ernst is a right-wing nutjob who should be nowhere near the Senate.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: JRP1994 on August 27, 2014, 03:03:23 PM
I just don't see a republican pickup here. Obama won the state handily in 12.

<6% ≠ handily


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Never on August 27, 2014, 10:10:37 PM
...and I'm also entitled to mine, and mine just so happens to be that Joni Ernst is a right-wing nutjob who should be nowhere near the Senate.

I honestly didn't expect a gif of Taylor Swift raising her hand to cause the discussion we're having! :D

But anyhow, I like Ernst, you don't, and there's no problem with that. I actually found it pretty amusing that people chose "gross" as the word to describe my support of her.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Anti Democrat Democrat Club on August 27, 2014, 10:15:23 PM
...and I'm also entitled to mine, and mine just so happens to be that Joni Ernst is a right-wing nutjob who should be nowhere near the Senate.

I honestly didn't expect a gif of Taylor Swift raising her hand to cause the discussion we're having! :D

But anyhow, I like Ernst, you don't, and there's no problem with that. I actually found it pretty amusing that people chose "gross" as the word to describe my support of her.

Same. I mean I f**k with T-Swizzle (at least pre-Shake It Off) so you're good in my book.

So is everyone else, really.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: KCDem on August 27, 2014, 10:28:01 PM
...and I'm also entitled to mine, and mine just so happens to be that Joni Ernst is a right-wing nutjob who should be nowhere near the Senate.

...and I extend that to people who support despicable candidates. If you support a candidate I find horrendous, that colors my opinion of you. The fact that you could support Ernst, who is arguably one of the most disgustingly extreme and perverse senate candidates this cycle, disgusts me and lowers my opinion of you. Sorry to come off as an ass, but it's my opinion :P


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: TJ in Oregon on August 27, 2014, 11:42:52 PM
"Perverse" is quite the charge, one that has gotten a poster banned from here for using before. What exactly has Ernst done that qualifies as perverse?


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: KCDem on August 27, 2014, 11:53:40 PM
"Perverse" is quite the charge, one that has gotten a poster banned from here for using before. What exactly has Ernst done that qualifies as perverse?

Perverse is a broad term. A politician can have a dystopian worldview, as Ernst does. A dystopian worldview is perverse. Calling something perverse is a commentary on a certain action's morality.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: TJ in Oregon on August 29, 2014, 08:41:40 PM
"Perverse" is quite the charge, one that has gotten a poster banned from here for using before. What exactly has Ernst done that qualifies as perverse?

Perverse is a broad term. A politician can have a dystopian worldview, as Ernst does. A dystopian worldview is perverse. Calling something perverse is a commentary on a certain action's morality.

You've reworded the question without answering it. What exactly about her worldview is dystopian or perverse?


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: KCDem on August 29, 2014, 09:05:32 PM
"Perverse" is quite the charge, one that has gotten a poster banned from here for using before. What exactly has Ernst done that qualifies as perverse?

Perverse is a broad term. A politician can have a dystopian worldview, as Ernst does. A dystopian worldview is perverse. Calling something perverse is a commentary on a certain action's morality.

You've reworded the question without answering it. What exactly about her worldview is dystopian or perverse?

She has the temperament and depth of understanding of Sarah Palin grafted onto the ideology of Ted Cruz, what more can be said?


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Mr. Reactionary on September 02, 2014, 12:59:56 PM

She has the temperament and depth of understanding of Sarah Palin grafted onto the ideology of Ted Cruz, what more can be said?

specific policies.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Vern on September 02, 2014, 03:32:22 PM
I think it is funny how the left calls people names and degrade people for having different views then them... I thought y'all were suppose to be so tolerant ones..


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: The Other Castro on September 02, 2014, 05:02:51 PM
I think it is funny how the left calls people names and degrade people for having different views then them... I thought y'all were suppose to be so tolerant ones..

To be fair, you are judging all leftists based on the posts of one KCDem


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Miles on September 02, 2014, 05:17:05 PM
I think it is funny how the left calls people names and degrade people for having different views then them... I thought y'all were suppose to be so tolerant ones..

To be fair, you are judging all leftists based on the posts of one KCDem

Yeah. As someone who frequents RRH daily, there's a lot of that coming from the other side, too. Anyways, making blanket statements is silly regardless.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: KCDem on September 02, 2014, 07:05:24 PM
I think it is funny how the left calls people names and degrade people for having different views then them... I thought y'all were suppose to be so tolerant ones..

If their views are despicable, then I will call you out on them. It's not hard to understand. Life isn't objective.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Vern on September 02, 2014, 07:35:28 PM
I think it is funny how the left calls people names and degrade people for having different views then them... I thought y'all were suppose to be so tolerant ones..

If their views are despicable, then I will call you out on them. It's not hard to understand. Life isn't objective.

But who says your views on things are right? Because what is despicable to you may be very different than someone else.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Vern on September 02, 2014, 07:37:03 PM
I think it is funny how the left calls people names and degrade people for having different views then them... I thought y'all were suppose to be so tolerant ones..

To be fair, you are judging all leftists based on the posts of one KCDem

You are right, it just makes me upset that one will call another person names because of the way they believe.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: KCDem on September 02, 2014, 07:44:15 PM
I think it is funny how the left calls people names and degrade people for having different views then them... I thought y'all were suppose to be so tolerant ones..

If their views are despicable, then I will call you out on them. It's not hard to understand. Life isn't objective.

But who says your views on things are right? Because what is despicable to you may be very different than someone else.

I never claimed they were. I'm expressing my opinion.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: RINO Tom on September 02, 2014, 07:46:30 PM
I just don't see a republican pickup here. Obama won the state handily in 12.

So?  Obama lost Arkansas and West Virginia in landslides in 2008, but they both sent Democrats back to Washington.  Obama won Maine handily, but it sent a Republican back to Washington with a huge margin.

Politics is still local!


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: DrScholl on September 02, 2014, 08:50:07 PM
For one thing, Pryor didn't even have Republican opponent in 2008, so of course he'd be re-elected and in West Virginia, Rockefeller wasn't going to lose. You can't really compare Joni Ernst to either of those candidates.


Title: Re: IA-PPP: Braley (D) up 1.
Post by: Vern on September 02, 2014, 09:43:58 PM
I think it is funny how the left calls people names and degrade people for having different views then them... I thought y'all were suppose to be so tolerant ones..

If their views are despicable, then I will call you out on them. It's not hard to understand. Life isn't objective.

But who says your views on things are right? Because what is despicable to you may be very different than someone else.

I never claimed they were. I'm expressing my opinion.

And that is fine, but you don't have to call people names to express your views.