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Election Archive => 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on August 28, 2014, 05:26:36 am



Title: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: Tender Branson on August 28, 2014, 05:26:36 am
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http://lancasteronline.com/news/local/f-m-college-poll-corbett-failing-to-gain-ground-in/article_2e89c352-2e32-11e4-8e8c-001a4bcf6878.html


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: Tender Branson on August 28, 2014, 05:34:46 am
It's also not getting any better for Corbett when undecideds are pushed:

Quote
Lean_Gov. As of today, do you lean more to (rotated) Tom Corbett, Tom Wolf, or are you leaning toward some other candidate?

28% Wolf
13% Corbett
59% Other/Still don't know


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: Tender Branson on August 28, 2014, 05:37:15 am
While they don't give combined numbers (incl. leaners), the breakdown of leaners would give us an overall result of 56% Wolf and 27% Corbett.


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: Senator Cris on August 28, 2014, 07:04:13 am
Lean D.


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: Landslide Andy on August 28, 2014, 08:58:46 am
So is this lean D like Sabato says or a toss up like Cook says? I guess we'll split the difference and call it tilt D. ;)

But no really, this is a safe D race now. Time to put aside "muh incumbency" and see reality for what it is. Wolf has a bigger lead than Greg Abbott, Jerry Brown, John Cornyn, Ben Sasse, Dick Durbin, Lindsey Graham...


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: Maxwell on August 28, 2014, 09:03:28 am
This race has been over for a long time, the fact that Wolf's margin continues to grow is very telling.


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: MATTROSE94 on August 28, 2014, 09:16:31 am
What are the odds of Tom Wolf getting over 60% of the vote at this point?


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: pbrower2a on August 28, 2014, 09:21:07 am
Overwhelming D.

Pennsylvania can certainly turn on an incumbent in an election -- just think of Rick Sanctimonious in 2006!


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: Miles on August 28, 2014, 10:12:40 am
Undecideds seem too high for me, but yeah. I don't see how Corbett comes back from this deficit  in two months' time.


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 28, 2014, 11:55:14 am
Corbett has an equal chance as Beauprez in Colorado.


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: Free Bird on August 28, 2014, 01:49:11 pm
Lean R


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: Dixie Reborn on August 28, 2014, 02:30:09 pm
Wolf under 50? Definetley Likely Republican.


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: Dixie Reborn on August 28, 2014, 02:31:16 pm
The polls are skewed, Corbett will win in a landslide.


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 28, 2014, 04:09:32 pm

That's standard for F&M polls.


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: backtored on August 28, 2014, 04:59:50 pm
Corbett has an equal chance as Beauprez in Colorado.

Well, no, not really.


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: backtored on August 28, 2014, 05:04:30 pm
I can only imagine how disastrous this is for down-ballot races.


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on August 28, 2014, 05:05:06 pm
Corbett has an equal chance as Beauprez in Colorado.

You're joking. Right?


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: henster on August 28, 2014, 05:05:42 pm
I think Wolf wins 62-36 in the end and depressed GOP turnout allows for a couple of state Senate to flip towards the Dems. I think there's a high possibility one chamber flips at this point there will be some type of coattails from all of this.


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: Flake on August 28, 2014, 05:08:07 pm

I'm pretty sure it's sarcasm


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: backtored on August 28, 2014, 05:13:16 pm
Why didn't they primary him?

Pennsylvania is a slowly R-trending state, and a super-important one for Republicans in 2016 and beyond.  I don't understand how the GOP let this happen, unless there is some metric out there where Corbett is in better shape than we all think.


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: Vega on August 28, 2014, 05:14:43 pm
Pennsylvania is a slowly R-trending state

What?


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 28, 2014, 05:30:51 pm

This state is still very old fashioned. There's a lot of respect for the establishment and the Governor is truly seen as the head of his respective party. Plus, the Governor's office here is historically strong so a Governor wields incredible influence.

There was plenty of talk about a Corbett primary challenge and an old rival of his was "considering" it. No surprise when it didn't materialize though.


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: CEO of Bernie Sanders on August 28, 2014, 05:45:50 pm

This state is still very old fashioned. There's a lot of respect for the establishment and the Governor is truly seen as the head of his respective party. Plus, the Governor's office here is historically strong so a Governor wields incredible influence.

There was plenty of talk about a Corbett primary challenge and an old rival of his was "considering" it. No surprise when it didn't materialize though.

Gerlach, right?


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 28, 2014, 05:54:24 pm

This state is still very old fashioned. There's a lot of respect for the establishment and the Governor is truly seen as the head of his respective party. Plus, the Governor's office here is historically strong so a Governor wields incredible influence.

There was plenty of talk about a Corbett primary challenge and an old rival of his was "considering" it. No surprise when it didn't materialize though.

Gerlach, right?

Bruce Castor

Gerlach was talked up but he isn't a historical Corbett rival.


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: CEO of Bernie Sanders on August 28, 2014, 06:10:08 pm
Oh yeah, him.

What do you think it would've been like if it was Wolf v. Castor?


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: Vega on August 28, 2014, 06:13:46 pm
Oh yeah, him.

What do you think it would've been like if it was Wolf v. Castor?

Wolf would be leading by 10 points instead of 20.


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 28, 2014, 07:12:13 pm
Oh yeah, him.

What do you think it would've been like if it was Wolf v. Castor?

Wolf would be leading by 10 points instead of 20.

Um. No. It would probably be a very close race. Castor has appeal in the SE and a lot of conservatives upset with Corbett would have "come home" a lot quicker for Castor (even though he's not some right wing firebrand, he's been a vocal critic of the establishment enemies of the grassroots).


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: Vega on August 28, 2014, 07:16:38 pm
Oh yeah, him.

What do you think it would've been like if it was Wolf v. Castor?

Wolf would be leading by 10 points instead of 20.

Um. No. It would probably be a very close race. Castor has appeal in the SE and a lot of conservatives upset with Corbett would have "come home" a lot quicker for Castor (even though he's not some right wing firebrand, he's been a vocal critic of the establishment enemies of the grassroots).

You might be right. I don't think any polls were ever ran of a Democrat, let alone Wolf, against Castor.


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: Landslide Andy on August 28, 2014, 10:41:03 pm

What Phil said, but to add to that, even though Corbett was/is extremely unpopular with the overall electorate, he still would've been the favorite to crack 50%+1 in his own party's primary.


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: Keystone Phil on August 29, 2014, 04:06:10 pm

What Phil said, but to add to that, even though Corbett was/is extremely unpopular with the overall electorate, he still would've been the favorite to crack 50%+1 in his own party's primary.

His ratings amongst Republicans have been weak for awhile. Polls showed something like 45% of Republicans believed he deserved a second term while 40% said he didn't. He might have been the favorite for reasons I mentioned but immense popularity amongst GOP voters isn't one of those reasons.


Title: Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1
Post by: Landslide Andy on August 29, 2014, 05:37:15 pm

What Phil said, but to add to that, even though Corbett was/is extremely unpopular with the overall electorate, he still would've been the favorite to crack 50%+1 in his own party's primary.

His ratings amongst Republicans have been weak for awhile. Polls showed something like 45% of Republicans believed he deserved a second term while 40% said he didn't. He might have been the favorite for reasons I mentioned but immense popularity amongst GOP voters isn't one of those reasons.

Oh, I know that. I was just saying that despite his tepid approvals among Republicans, the fact that he still would've been the favorite in the primary probably dissuaded potential challengers from running.