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Election Archive => 2014 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Lief 🐋 on September 03, 2014, 03:03:43 pm



Title: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Lief 🐋 on September 03, 2014, 03:03:43 pm
https://twitter.com/DavidChalian/status/507257133063503872

Guys I'm beginning to think that McConnell might currently be leading by 4 percentage points. I'd like to see another 5-10 polls also showing him leading by 4 percentage points before I'm absolutely certain though.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 03, 2014, 03:05:21 pm
Cruisin'. :)


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Vega on September 03, 2014, 03:20:50 pm

4 points, 1 out of the margin of error, is not crusin'.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: backtored on September 03, 2014, 03:27:13 pm
Three polls in 24 hours of the most overrated Senate race in America. 

As I said in another thread, so many of these races in other states may have moved a lot in the last 30 days, but we'd never know about it because everyone is too busy polling Kentucky, Georgia, and Kansas, presumably trying to fish for new political stories where there just aren't any.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Miles on September 03, 2014, 03:29:31 pm
Well, I would have never guessed ;D

CNN should also be out with a poll today. I'm expecting another with McConnell up 3-5.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on September 03, 2014, 04:10:09 pm
The only way Grimes wins is if she sweeps whatever debates are held, or if there's some kind of bizarre scandal that works in her favor.  A very thin line to walk.  


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Gass3268 on September 03, 2014, 04:11:33 pm
Should be noted that the Libertarian candidate was not tested in this poll. Don't think it would matter much. 


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 03, 2014, 04:12:45 pm
The only way Grimes wins is if she sweeps whatever debates are held, or if there's some kind of bizarre scandal that works in her favor.  A very thin line to walk.  

McConnell himself is a bizarre scandal.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: ModerateVAVoter on September 03, 2014, 04:42:14 pm
Isn't Grimes going through a "bizarre scandal" of her own? The issue with her campaign bus?


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 03, 2014, 04:47:32 pm
Isn't Grimes going through a "bizarre scandal" of her own? The issue with her campaign bus?

The only people who care about the campaign bus "scandal" is the right-wing media that's determined to elect McConnell.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Beat-Em-All Beto on September 03, 2014, 05:14:48 pm
Isn't Grimes going through a "bizarre scandal" of her own? The issue with her campaign bus?

The only people who care about the campaign bus "scandal" is the right-wing media that's determined to elect McConnell.
And of course POLITICO gave some unnecessary coverage to it


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Landslide Andy on September 03, 2014, 05:45:48 pm
Three polls in 24 hours of the most overrated Senate race in America. 

As I said in another thread, so many of these races in other states may have moved a lot in the last 30 days, but we'd never know about it because everyone is too busy polling Kentucky, Georgia, and Kansas, presumably trying to fish for new political stories where there just aren't any.

Overrated in what sense? The sitting Senate Republican leader leading in a deep red state by only 4 points seems pretty worthy of a story to me...

Anyway, McConnell clearly has the edge as of now, but it's not insurmountable. Grimes needs to get aggressive and flip the turtle on his shell.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 03, 2014, 06:52:41 pm
Like I said, it will be comfortable in the end.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: KCDem on September 03, 2014, 07:02:00 pm
Like I said, it will be comfortable in the end.

4 points isn't comfortable, clown.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Maxwell on September 03, 2014, 07:08:51 pm
Like I said, it will be comfortable in the end.

4 points isn't comfortable, clown.

reading, clown.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: KCDem on September 03, 2014, 07:10:01 pm

There's no reason to believe McConnell will gain, in the end. Nice try.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: KCDem on September 03, 2014, 08:33:05 pm
This is a poll of likely voters. The registered voter sample shows McConnell up only 1 point 46-47. This race is a tossup.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 03, 2014, 08:36:09 pm
Like I said, it will be comfortable in the end.

4 points isn't comfortable, clown.

He's lead by four now. If Grimes wasn't leading by now, she isn't going to win. And there's plenty of reason to believe McConnell will gain: Republicans coming home.

McConnell will win by about six to eight which is comfortable, clown.

Politics, KCDem: it just ain't your thing.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Panda Express on September 03, 2014, 08:45:23 pm
What's with all the clowns in this topic?


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Lief 🐋 on September 03, 2014, 08:47:00 pm
lol phil


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: GaussLaw on September 03, 2014, 09:21:28 pm
McConnell is now officially favored.  Period.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: KCDem on September 03, 2014, 09:28:29 pm
Like I said, it will be comfortable in the end.

4 points isn't comfortable, clown.

He's lead by four now. If Grimes wasn't leading by now, she isn't going to win. And there's plenty of reason to believe McConnell will gain: Republicans coming home.

McConnell will win by about six to eight which is comfortable, clown.

Politics, KCDem: it just ain't your thing.

Hahaha sorry if I'm not following the instincts of an uppity dego


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: gay gay gay bathhouses on September 03, 2014, 09:40:00 pm
Like I said, it will be comfortable in the end.

4 points isn't comfortable, clown.

holy shxt bruh why so angry


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Tender Branson on September 04, 2014, 01:10:34 am
4% is still winnable.

Internals:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/09/03/cnn.orc.kentucky.poll.pdf

Grimes now has 84% of Democrats already, while she only got 75% before.

But McConnell has managed to increase his support among Indies.

So, it really depends if Grimes can turn out enough Democrats and reverse her slide among Indies.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on September 04, 2014, 02:21:08 am
I'm starting to think this race is over.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on September 04, 2014, 02:37:48 am
Well, in the 2004 Kentucky Senate race, the Republican was up by around 15 points at this time. He won by 1.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Panda Express on September 04, 2014, 03:13:40 am
Well, in the 2004 Kentucky Senate race, the Republican was up by around 15 points at this time. He won by 1.

I was too young to really follow senatorial politics in 2004 so I could be wrong but wasn't the guy in 2004 senile and made gaffe after gaffe?


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Keystone Phil on September 04, 2014, 07:04:59 am
Like I said, it will be comfortable in the end.

4 points isn't comfortable, clown.

He's lead by four now. If Grimes wasn't leading by now, she isn't going to win. And there's plenty of reason to believe McConnell will gain: Republicans coming home.

McConnell will win by about six to eight which is comfortable, clown.

Politics, KCDem: it just ain't your thing.

Hahaha sorry if I'm not following the instincts of an uppity dego

Wow. Such an enlightened one!


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: NHLiberal on September 04, 2014, 10:23:35 am
Well, in the 2004 Kentucky Senate race, the Republican was up by around 15 points at this time. He won by 1.

I was too young to really follow senatorial politics in 2004 so I could be wrong but wasn't the guy in 2004 senile and made gaffe after gaffe?

Yup

Quote from: Wikipedia
During his reelection bid in 2004, controversy erupted when Bunning described Mongiardo as looking "like one of Saddam Hussein's sons." Bunning apologized, then later went on to declare that Mongiardo's "thugs" had assaulted his wife.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 04, 2014, 11:33:00 am
Well, in the 2004 Kentucky Senate race, the Republican was up by around 15 points at this time. He won by 1.

I was too young to really follow senatorial politics in 2004 so I could be wrong but wasn't the guy in 2004 senile and made gaffe after gaffe?

As if McConnell isn't?


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on September 04, 2014, 11:50:46 am
Well, in the 2004 Kentucky Senate race, the Republican was up by around 15 points at this time. He won by 1.

I was too young to really follow senatorial politics in 2004 so I could be wrong but wasn't the guy in 2004 senile and made gaffe after gaffe?

Yes. Now that was unusual, but my point is a 4 point lead isn't safe.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Joshua on September 04, 2014, 12:58:12 pm
Well, in the 2004 Kentucky Senate race, the Republican was up by around 15 points at this time. He won by 1.

I was too young to really follow senatorial politics in 2004 so I could be wrong but wasn't the guy in 2004 senile and made gaffe after gaffe?

Jim Bunning quotes were the greatest.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Commrade Grumps on September 04, 2014, 01:04:44 pm

There's no reason to believe McConnell will gain, in the end. Nice try.

Sure there is.....people will actually

(Image Link)

I'd bet he ends up closer to 6+ points in the end.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 04, 2014, 01:09:37 pm
From the geographic breakdown, there's a very real chance Grimes could win Campbell County. I can't remember the last time a Democratic Senate candidate won Campbell County. (Didn't David Williams even win it in 1992?)


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: memphis on September 04, 2014, 04:14:41 pm
From the geographic breakdown, there's a very real chance Grimes could win Campbell County. I can't remember the last time a Democratic Senate candidate won Campbell County. (Didn't David Williams even win it in 1992?)
No. This site is all about election maps. You should check them out.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on September 04, 2014, 04:18:03 pm
From the geographic breakdown, there's a very real chance Grimes could win Campbell County. I can't remember the last time a Democratic Senate candidate won Campbell County. (Didn't David Williams even win it in 1992?)
No. This site is all about election maps. You should check them out.

I just saw it. I'm actually surprised Wendell Ford won the county in '92.


Title: Re: KY-CNN: McConnell +4
Post by: Badger on September 06, 2014, 07:28:08 pm
Like I said, it will be comfortable in the end.

4 points isn't comfortable, clown.

He's lead by four now. If Grimes wasn't leading by now, she isn't going to win. And there's plenty of reason to believe McConnell will gain: Republicans coming home.

McConnell will win by about six to eight which is comfortable, clown.

Politics, KCDem: it just ain't your thing.

I would't call a 6-8 point win "comfortable", especially for an incumbent senator, but a debate over semantics as I expect a 4-7 point win for McConnell.