Talk Elections

44% Cassidy (R)
41% Landrieu (D)

Link later.

Landrieu loses 5 points, Cassidy gains 1 point compared with Rassy's July poll.

> Rassy

Still Pure Toss-Up.

From which site you take this numbers? On Rasmussen site, there isn't the poll.

I not sure about Tender, but there's a guy on RRH who's a subscriber and gets the numbers early. Thats how I post Rassy polls here before they're relased.

Anyway, yeah. Tossup + Rassy.

Beautiful.

It's Rassy :P

I don't get the whole "oh, it's Rasmussen thing."  Their polling has been pretty much dead even with PPP, Quinnipiac, Survey USA, etc. this election cycle.  I am well aware of their problems in 2012, and so are they, which is probably why they made the adjustments necessary and are producing some pretty legitimate polling.

I suspect that Cassidy really is up three points at this point, which, yes, is wonderful.

Considering that a Republican internal had Cassidy down six, I'm not sure that this is all that believable.

They do produce accurate polling.... when you automatically subtract 3-5% from the Republican candidate. They're consistent though, which is good.

GOP house effect without Maness on ballot. Landrieu isnt safe, but by no means she is this endangered.

...

Okay.

Which is how it will be on the inevitable runoff.

Even for a Rass poll, this seems about right. I won't trust this poll specifically until Rass is or isn't proven accurate in November, but it is still somewhat telling that Rass is shaping up to be possibly accurate in the face of all the worship of "muh PPP."

Landrieu was leading 48-44 in the other poll. And Cassidy was the worser of the candidates.

I am not counting out Landrieu, she has won close races before.

Mary Landrieu is the most vulnerable incumbent facing re-election. She needs to hit 50% on November 4th and I simply don't see that happening. And I highly doubt she prevails in a low-turnout runoff, especially if Senate control hangs in balance.

Senate control will depend on Oman in KS and AK, NC and La.

What about Pryor?

To OC: how is calling it a toss-up, as nearly everyone incling myself is, counting her out? Nobody is saying she is doomed, but calling the race lean D is ridiculous - in fact, an average of the last four non-internal, non-yougov polls gives Cassidy a 2 point edge.

I think Landrieu is the most likely incumbent to get knocked off, if only because of the whole run-off thing.

A three point Cassidy lead from a quality pollster would be good news, but this is Rasmussen. While Landrieu is definitely vulnerable, I'm going to wait for a another poll to corroborate these numbers.

Given that Landrieu has won two runoffs in the past, I'm guessing that she's not in the hideous shape that some people think she's in.

This.

The 04' election was a even worse year for Democrats, yet she still hung on.

It was 2002 and the GOP had already regained the Senate by the time her runoff rolled around. Control of the chamber may very well come down to her race.

Louisiana has gone farther to the right, Obama is deeply unpopular, and the race would be heavily nationalized in a runoff, especially if Senate control is up for grabs. She may be a skilled politician, but this is going to be an environment unlike what she has faced in past elections.

It kills me to say this, but the south and especially states like LA and AR are rapidly trending Republican at the state wide level. They used to love voting for the ' right kind of democrat' , in fact a lot of people probably preferred the moderate to conservative Democrats over the Republican. Unfortunately times have changed and these southern states are going to be monolithically Republican. In 2002 there was still a lot of residual yellow dog Democrat types to put Landrieu across the finish line.

The last runoff she won was twelve years ago. I used to think the fact that she won the '96 and '02 runoffs she had a good chance of winning one this year, but so much has changed in twelve years I don't think they're comparable situations.

New Poll: Louisiana Senator by Rasmussen on 2014-09-03 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=22220140903016)

Summary: D: 44%, R: 41%, I: 9%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/louisiana/election_2014_louisiana_senate)

He was at the top of the ticket when she won an outright majority in 2008. In fact, she outperformed Barack Obama that year by over 200,000 votes.

And all of these things aren't already variables? I'm not an expert on LA demography or turnout, but something tells me that natural run-off turnout when compared to the general isn't as contrasting as it might be in, say, my own state - or at the very least, isn't as disadvantageous to Democrats.

2008 was also a wave year for Dems.

But this is already nationalized. How a run off could change her situation, except it is the decisive seat for the senate majority.

Landrieu won 2 run-offs, why couldn't her win a 3th? (except if indeed the decisive seat for the senate majority is her seat).

I'm not sure how much we can even compare the 1996 runoff at all to this election- if we use it as a base to go off of, it speaks poorly of Landrieu's chances. It was held in tandem with the 1996 presidential election, so you can't argue minorities had noticeably lower turnout, and saw her underperform Clinton in Louisiana by a twelve point margin, as he won the state comfortably. In addition, it was at a time when the state Democratic party still had serious muscle (which was still the case in 2002), instead of being the relative carcass it is now, and many conservative Southern voters had yet to desert the party.

As Tmth pointed out earlier, the environment isn't going to be favorable (unlike 2008's wave year), she faces a decent opponent who has outraised her, there is an extremely unpopular incumbent President of her party, she's been caught in unfavorable situations (like the residency fiasco or the private plane scandal), she's trailing or tied in all the polls taken, and not near the 50% margin she'll need to avoid a runoff. With national attention focused on her race in December, and decreased turnout from her traditional vote bases, she's going to have a very difficult time.

She'll lose by a solid margin, perhaps even double digits or close to double digits. Her ceiling in this race is probably somewhere around 48%.

That was also a state that Barack Obama lost by ~20.

It would be one thing to argue if Democrats' performance was inflated in Louisiana due to a wave, but don't pretend like this was the case here.

You're either joking or trolling, but I don't know which.

It was a favorable year for Democrats running no matter the state. Mark Pryor didn't even get an opponent, Kent Conrad won very big, as did Jay Rockefeller, and both of those would've been at risk in a different year.