Talk Elections

CO (likely voters):

43% John Hickenlooper (D)
39% Bob Beauprez (R)
  5% Matthew Hess (L)
  4% Harry Hempy (G)

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/97-colorado-udall-ahead-of-gardner-in-u-s-senate-race-hickenlooper-edges-beauprez-for-governor

AR (likely voters):

48% Asa Hutchinson (R)
39% Mike Ross (D)
  3% Frank Gilbert (L)
  3% Josh Drake (G)

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/97-arkansas-cotton-leads-pryor-in-u-s-senate-race-hutchinson-ahead-of-ross-in-governors-race

Harry Hempy is a pretty cool name for a Green Party candidate ...

Wow, this looks like further proof that Dems may have a real turnout problem in Arkansas.  IIRC, Marist had Pryor up something like 10 when it was only RVs polled.  Of course, the polls may be exaggerating this, but the RV/LV discrepancy seems to be popping up multiple times.

It's looking like Democrats will sweep Colorado for a fifth election year in a row! It's definitely still a toss-up swing-state though. Definitely.

Looks generally reasonable.

Most pollsters tend to show Pryor outperforming Ross. Why is this? It seems like it would be the opposite when you look at all the factors.

- Didn't vote for Obamacare
- Generally more conservative than Pryor
- From the swing area of the state
- Running to replace an extremely popular Democratic governor
- Gubernatorial elections are less partisan/polarized
- Hutchinson seems to be a weaker opponent than Cotton
- You'd expect there to be some Cotton/Ross voters in AR-04 since they both represented it in Congress, but I find it really hard to picture any Pryor/Hutchinson voters

Pretty much the only factor I think goes for Pryor over Ross is his last name and brand in the state.

I agree with you. Pryor's only obvious advantage is incumbency, but that shouldn't be enough to counter everything you listed. Anyone from the state or who knows it really well able to shed some light? Maybe he's just running a superior campaign?

I actually think Hutch is a stronger candidate than Cotton.  Hutchison is way less polarizing and fairly centrist(look at some of his ads on education, for instance).  Incumbency is also big too.

AR vetos can't stick because of simple majority override and the legislature will only get more R.  That could be hindering his funding/base enthusiasm behind the scenes?

Who are all these Pryor/Hutchinson voters!? It should be the opposite.

I really don't know what's happening.  Ross should be doing much better. 

The third party candidates were listed as options, not merely if volunteered by pollees, right?

Memo to all pollsters: unless the 3rd party candidate is at least orman/pressler level popularity already, stop. Doing. That!

I've heard Hutchinson has done some really good ad campaigns showing himself in a positive good-governmenty sorta light whereas Cotton hasn't really. It might be a matter of voters sometimes preferring to be told what you're for rather than what you're against.

This poll is terrible for Hickenlooper.  He's only up four with the Libertarian getting 5%?  That's all?  In a Marist poll that gives Udall a very generous lead at least a few points larger than any other pollster?

Beauprez looks very, very strong at this point.