Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2014 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Miles on September 12, 2014, 07:11:24 am



Title: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: Miles on September 12, 2014, 07:11:24 am
Better link coming. (https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/510398930316963840)

RVs
Braley (D)- 50%
Ernst (R)- 42%

LVs
Braley- 49%
Ernst- 48%


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: KCDem on September 12, 2014, 07:20:47 am
RV to LV screen continues to be a joke.


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: Tender Branson on September 12, 2014, 07:27:18 am
The big RV/LV gap either means that A) Republicans are currently more motivated to vote or B) that Democrats are actually favoured if they have a sophisticated GOTV-machine on election day.

Lean more to A) though ...


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: IceSpear on September 12, 2014, 11:04:12 am
RV to LV screen continues to be a joke.

Yes, I'm extremely skeptical the RV vs. LV discrepancy is THIS huge.


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 12, 2014, 11:30:04 am
The big RV/LV gap either means that A) Republicans are currently more motivated to vote or B) that Democrats are actually favoured if they have a sophisticated GOTV-machine on election day.

Lean more to A) though ...

Indeed. But that could account for a 2-3-4 points difference between LV and RV. Not 7 and 8.


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: Free Bird on September 12, 2014, 12:20:51 pm
This poll is weird. Do we believe a PPP poll commissioned by a LIBERAL group, or a CNN poll in the MoE with a huge discrepancy?


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: ModerateVAVoter on September 12, 2014, 12:30:18 pm
Doesn't CNN generally have a large gap between RV and LV?


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: Miles on September 12, 2014, 12:55:10 pm
^ Yeah, at least in their recent polls. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198234.msg4289058#msg4289058)


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: GaussLaw on September 12, 2014, 06:04:53 pm
Doesn't CNN generally have a large gap between RV and LV?

Exactly.  Interestingly, the CNN polls LV results look similar to other polls' results, but the RV ones are much more Democratic-favored. 

I would say this is Tilt D at this point, but Ernst could still win this.


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: KCDem on September 12, 2014, 07:45:18 pm
Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: Free Bird on September 12, 2014, 08:01:28 pm
Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: KCDem on September 12, 2014, 08:18:01 pm
Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure

What are you talking about? He's up 8


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: Vega on September 12, 2014, 08:23:02 pm
Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure

What are you talking about? He's up 8

... in Registered Voters. In Likely Voters - the ones who will show up - he leads by only one point, which is in the margin of error.


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: KCDem on September 12, 2014, 08:24:24 pm
Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure

What are you talking about? He's up 8

... in Registered Voters. In Likely Voters - the ones who will show up - he leads by only one point, which is in the margin of error.

Umm, no. Voters = likely voters + some unlikely voters

So, a likely voter screen is, by definition, more restrictive than the actual electorate. Try again.


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: Vega on September 12, 2014, 08:25:30 pm
Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure

What are you talking about? He's up 8

... in Registered Voters. In Likely Voters - the ones who will show up - he leads by only one point, which is in the margin of error.

Umm, no. Voters = likely voters + some unlikely voters

So, a likely voter screen is, by definition, more restrictive than the actual electorate. Try again.

Likely Voters are more likely to show up to vote than Registered Voters. It's quite simple.


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: KCDem on September 12, 2014, 08:30:55 pm
Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure

What are you talking about? He's up 8

... in Registered Voters. In Likely Voters - the ones who will show up - he leads by only one point, which is in the margin of error.

Umm, no. Voters = likely voters + some unlikely voters

So, a likely voter screen is, by definition, more restrictive than the actual electorate. Try again.

Likely Voters are more likely to show up to vote than Registered Voters. It's quite simple.

Yes, but likely voters aren't the only part of the likely electorate. Likely voters are the floor of participation, registered voters the ceiling. Reality is somewhere in the middle. Luckily an unlikely vote counts just as much as a likely vote.


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: Vega on September 12, 2014, 08:33:24 pm
Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure

What are you talking about? He's up 8

... in Registered Voters. In Likely Voters - the ones who will show up - he leads by only one point, which is in the margin of error.

Umm, no. Voters = likely voters + some unlikely voters

So, a likely voter screen is, by definition, more restrictive than the actual electorate. Try again.

Likely Voters are more likely to show up to vote than Registered Voters. It's quite simple.

Yes, but likely voters aren't the only part of the likely electorate. Likely voters are the floor of participation, registered voters the ceiling. Reality is somewhere in the middle. Luckily an unlikely vote counts just as much as a likely vote.

I'm not saying Likely Voters are perfect - far from it. However, it paints a more accurate picture than Registered Voters.


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: KCDem on September 12, 2014, 08:40:05 pm
Good to see Braley's lead confirmed.

In the MoE and with weird statistics? Sure

What are you talking about? He's up 8

... in Registered Voters. In Likely Voters - the ones who will show up - he leads by only one point, which is in the margin of error.

Umm, no. Voters = likely voters + some unlikely voters

So, a likely voter screen is, by definition, more restrictive than the actual electorate. Try again.

Likely Voters are more likely to show up to vote than Registered Voters. It's quite simple.

Yes, but likely voters aren't the only part of the likely electorate. Likely voters are the floor of participation, registered voters the ceiling. Reality is somewhere in the middle. Luckily an unlikely vote counts just as much as a likely vote.

I'm not saying Likely Voters are perfect - far from it. However, it paints a more accurate picture than Registered Voters.

That depends on the tightness of the likely voter screen.


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: Panda Express on September 12, 2014, 09:24:37 pm
Braley is beating back Ernest and her army of dumb farmers.


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: Free Bird on September 12, 2014, 10:25:43 pm
Braley is beating back Ernest and her army of dumb farmers.

Don't say that in Iowa. They'll linchpin you then


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: Vega on September 12, 2014, 10:27:35 pm
Braley is beating back Ernest and her army of dumb farmers.

Don't say that in Iowa. They'll linchpin you then

And then you'll start trailing Joni Ernst.


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 12, 2014, 11:26:58 pm
I'm instantly skeptical of a LV screen that generates those types of discrepancies. Remember those from the Presidential that had Obama up by 1 with LV and 11 with RV.

I think Braley is up by 2-3 FWIW


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 13, 2014, 03:56:44 am
So that PPP poll was clearly an outlier. Phew.


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 13, 2014, 06:11:05 am
So that PPP poll was clearly an outlier. Phew.

The PPP poll was more than two weeks old. It seems that Ernst's campaign took many hits since then, a fact that even Republicans admit according to Amy Walter.


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: 2,868,691 on September 13, 2014, 10:40:37 am
If I were a Republican, I wouldn't even want Ernst to win. She'll harm the party by being such an embarrassment way more than her individual vote will help.

One senator either way, even when "control" is at stake, means very little. The exact count only matters when one party is approaching 60, and that's pretty unlikely to happen either way in the next 6 years.

And yes, I would say the same thing in real life if the Democrats had nominated a liberal equivalent of her in one of the close races.


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: IceSpear on September 13, 2014, 11:29:59 am
If I were a Republican, I wouldn't even want Ernst to win. She'll harm the party by being such an embarrassment way more than her individual vote will help.

One senator either way, even when "control" is at stake, means very little. The exact count only matters when one party is approaching 60, and that's pretty unlikely to happen either way in the next 6 years.

And yes, I would say the same thing in real life if the Democrats had nominated a liberal equivalent of her in one of the close races.

Nothing Ernst would do or say could possibly damage the GOP in any meaningful way. They already have Cruz/Bachmann/King/Gohmert/Stockman etc. etc. and are about to perform respectably in the midterms anyway.


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: Free Bird on September 13, 2014, 12:28:12 pm
If I were a Republican, I wouldn't even want Ernst to win. She'll harm the party by being such an embarrassment way more than her individual vote will help.

One senator either way, even when "control" is at stake, means very little. The exact count only matters when one party is approaching 60, and that's pretty unlikely to happen either way in the next 6 years.

And yes, I would say the same thing in real life if the Democrats had nominated a liberal equivalent of her in one of the close races.

So youre suggesting the people of Iowa write in Mickey Mouse?


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: 2,868,691 on September 13, 2014, 01:08:29 pm
If I were a Republican, I wouldn't even want Ernst to win. She'll harm the party by being such an embarrassment way more than her individual vote will help.

One senator either way, even when "control" is at stake, means very little. The exact count only matters when one party is approaching 60, and that's pretty unlikely to happen either way in the next 6 years.

And yes, I would say the same thing in real life if the Democrats had nominated a liberal equivalent of her in one of the close races.

So youre suggesting the people of Iowa write in Mickey Mouse?

Braley isn't a conspiracy loon, he's just an incompetent campaigner. I don't anticipate him embarrassing the party once he's a senator (although to be fair, you can't always predict these things).

But yes, if the Iowa Dems had nominated a Dennis Kucinich-type, then yes, I would endorse a third-party candidate, and had, say, Kentucky nominated a Kucinich-type, I would endorse McConnell.

The only time I would deviate from this is if one party were on the verge of 60 seats.


Title: Re: IA: CNN/Orc: Braley in the lead
Post by: Joshua on September 14, 2014, 10:17:59 pm
I don't know why everyone is wigging out, 49-48 seems exactly right at this point.