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Title: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? Post by: Miles on September 12, 2014, 11:32:45 AM Link coming.
Ige (D)- 40% Aiona (R)- 39% Hanneman (I)- 14% Title: Re: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? Post by: Tender Branson on September 12, 2014, 12:01:58 PM Ige will pull it off.
Title: Re: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? Post by: backtored on September 12, 2014, 12:07:37 PM Toss-up. I think Duke has a great shot here.
Title: Re: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? Post by: IceSpear on September 12, 2014, 12:59:40 PM Interesting. I would've expected Ige to be dominating after his historic primary performance.
Title: Re: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? Post by: SWE on September 12, 2014, 03:08:02 PM >Hawaii polls
>Rasmussen Title: Re: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? Post by: Dixie Reborn on September 12, 2014, 03:44:59 PM Rassy polling in Hawaii is a recipe for disaster.
Title: Re: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? Post by: Maxwell on September 12, 2014, 04:18:52 PM Rassy polling in Hawaii is a recipe for disaster. Eh, I wouldn't say so. Rassy is the only pollster that under-bid the performance of Neil Abercrombie over Duke Aiona (their last poll had it at 58-32, it ended up 58-40). The worst pollster in Hawaii, for my money, is actually PPP, who had a poll a month before election with Abercrombie only up 2. Rassy is not good here, much like else where, but it's better than the other pollsters in the region. Title: Re: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? Post by: Andrew1 on September 12, 2014, 04:49:51 PM Rassy polling in Hawaii is a recipe for disaster. Anyone remember their 2010 Senate poll with Cavasso on 40% ? He got 22% ! Title: Re: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? Post by: Miles on September 12, 2014, 04:51:24 PM ^ Maxwell, that was their penultimate poll. Their final poll only had Abercrombie up 2. (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2010/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1520101013016)
Title: Re: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? Post by: Maxwell on September 12, 2014, 05:00:13 PM ^ Maxwell, that was their penultimate poll. Their final poll only had Abercrombie up 2. (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2010/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1520101013016) That was rassy? oh, my bad. Yea, rassy is terrible, withdrawn. Title: Re: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? Post by: TDAS04 on September 12, 2014, 05:03:49 PM Ige will pull it off. Title: Re: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? Post by: KCDem on September 12, 2014, 05:52:40 PM No, Ige will win easily.
Title: Re: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? Post by: Vega on September 12, 2014, 05:59:33 PM Bullsh*t. Hawaii polling sucks and this is an example of it. Ige will win by at least 6 points. I also don't see how Hannemann is polling above 10%.
Title: Re: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? Post by: GaussLaw on September 12, 2014, 06:07:24 PM Given what happened with Lingle, I could easily see Ige win by 15-20+ points, but we really don't know until election day.
Title: Re: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? Post by: Vega on September 12, 2014, 06:37:13 PM Given what happened with Lingle, I could easily see Ige win by 15-20+ points, but we really don't know until election day. From almost everything I've heard on the ground, Ige is very popular. He ought to win a quite respectable victory. Title: Re: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? Post by: Panda Express on September 13, 2014, 08:51:34 AM I remember when Rasmussen polled Hawaii in 2010. Nate Silver called it the worst poll ever in world history.
Title: Re: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? Post by: Vega on September 13, 2014, 09:55:04 AM I remember when Rasmussen polled Hawaii in 2010. Nate Silver called it the worst poll ever in world history. If you add "How hard it is to poll accurately in Hawaii" and Rasmussen, it's not a pretty combination. Title: Re: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? Post by: windjammer on September 13, 2014, 09:56:03 AM RASMUSSEN
Title: Re: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on September 14, 2014, 02:14:41 AM I remember when Rasmussen polled Hawaii in 2010. Nate Silver called it the worst poll ever in world history. If you add "How hard it is to poll accurately in Hawaii" and Rasmussen, it's not a pretty combination. LOL Quote 1* If the 2010 election for United States senate were held today would you vote for Republican Cam Cavasso or Democrat Dan Inouye? (Please note that we split the survey to rotate the order of the candidate names, so while half will hear the Republican candidate first, the other half hears the Democrat mentioned first.) http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/hawaii/questions/questions_hawaii_senate_october_13_201040% Cavasso 53% Inouye 3% Some Other Candidate 4% Not sure Rasmussen probably thought the Republican wave was going to hit Hawaii. I think that wave ended up somewhere around Antartica instead. Democrats won this particular Senate race by 53 points, gained the governor race, and defeated all but 1 Republican in the state Senate. Title: Re: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? Post by: ElectionsGuy on September 14, 2014, 01:23:30 PM Hawaii polls. Ige should win, but if Abercrombie somehow survived this would probably be Toss-up or lean R.
Title: Re: HI: Rasmussen: Aiona (R) poised for upset? Post by: Vega on September 14, 2014, 01:49:16 PM Hawaii polls. Ige should win, but if Abercrombie somehow survived this would probably be Toss-up or lean R. Had Abercrombie won the primary, Hannemann would have become a bigger threat. The two of them and their supporters have some bad blood from the 2010 primary. That isn't a problem now, because Ige picks up alot of Hannemann voters. |