Talk Elections

48% Quinn (D)
37% Rauner (R)
  5% Grimm (L)

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-illinois-governor-race-met-0914-20140913-story.html#page=1

What the hell ?

First the internal which had Quinn leading for the first time and now this ?

Did Rauner throw some kids into Lake Michigan or something ?

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But, uh, wow.

Once this is in the database, it also means that the Repubs currently have no pickup anymore on the Gov map.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2014/polls.php

They just remembered that he's a Republican.

I mean Rauner is terrible... but wat da eff?

And added.

Are you sure this is a relevant poll?
(Not that I doubt Quinn will probably survive)

This poll is likely a mega-outlier, but we'll see.

There have been signs lately that Rauner is in trouble ...

:D

There are two points that stand out in this poll. First is that it's an RV not an LV poll. In Chicago/Cook that makes a difference as RV turnout falls off more in Cook than downstate in the midterm. Second is the partisan breakdown which is 43D-24R, a number that matches the 2008 fall numbers with homestate Obama topping the ticket. That breakdown seems highly unlikely in 2014. It would take a Herculean turnout effort to get close to 2008 values.

Sorry bro. Looks like your boss is here to stay.

What an absolute joke of a state.

hahahahahahahahahahahaha

maybe next time you guys will listen to wise ol' lief, my boy paddy quinn's got this in the bag

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looks like the good people of illinois are rejecting the out of touch rich guy for their beloved local boy man of the people

Pat Quinn is a political beast. I doubt even Abraham Lincoln could topple him at this point.

I want to wait for other pollsters to confirm this. Unless that football guy with Rauner in that ad did that much damage, I really don't see this type of lead. This poll also way oversampled democrats, and they're not that excited for Quinn this time around.

I'll wait for the crosstabs before I draw any conclusions from this.

Why did you mark LV in the polling section? The article says RV.

...

Ah, ok.

When I went to the Tribune page, it said "This is premium content and can only be viewed from within the US".

I'm from Austria and looked for another source and this one said 800 "voters". And in Sept. you would think they'd poll likely voters, not RV ... :P

May God always bless Cook County!

Do you need a tissue?

I'm a subscriber, so if you ever have questions about Trib content I can let you know.

Quinn better thank Republican primary voters for choosing a candidate who makes Mitt Romney look like a true man of the people, I doubt Quinn would be breaking away from Dillard like this.

I quite agree with muon. The lead is probably less important, like 5-6 I guess.

Stop whining Phil.

Suck it, WAA.

Anybody who believes this poll probably also believes the poll that says Brownback is up 14 in Kansas

This is also an important point. Remember the only pollster that really ever showed Rauner with a convincing lead was WAA.

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Yeah, I'm not believing this until I see corroboration from a reliable pollster. It's kind of funny that the only polls in this state in the past year have been Ras, YouGov, WAA, and internals.


If this poll ends up being accurate...looks like your Kansas prediction is coming true, for Illinois. :P

Hey hey.

The partisanship here is sickening. Quinn is a crook and we all know it, and this poll's nitty gritty is garbage and we all know it. But because Quinn has a D after his name it's okay.

Precisely, that's the whole point. Both major parties in Illinois have demonstrated often enough that they're corrupt. Might as well take the corrupt bastards that do some good.

If this poll is with 15 points of the actual race(which it's almost certainly not) it's just another reason why I can't wait to leave this state in a year

The good people of Illinois are looking across the country and seeing the damage Republican governors have done. In Kansas to the west, in Wisconsin to the north, in New Jersey and Pennsylvania to the east, Republican governors have run their states into the ground and destroyed the years of good work Democratic governors had done. The good people of Illinois refuse to follow the same doomed path.

Maybe this poll surveys dead people, unlike the others.

Yes Blago's second banana is truly the people's governor

I want to see reliable pollsters so I can knowingly throw this out as an outlier. If PPP or Quinnipiac has this up also by 13, then maybe it's real. I doubt it.

If someone as loathed as Quinn can win, then Paul LePage is a shoo-in

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Didn't you say this when it had Rauner leading by single digits?

I'm sure his wife can give your boy enough mouth relief. He surely doesn't need your help too.

Yeah, states with Republican governors on average have higher jobs growth rates and better economic growth indicators.  Of course, there are many factors that have nothing to do with who is governor, but most Republican governors will get re-elected quite handily.

If Rauner loses in November, the Republicans should run Aaron Schock for governor in 2018. He may have a chance at winning the state.

After reading this thread, I'm convinced some on this poll would vote for Ed Gein and treat him like a pretty swell guy so long as he had a D after his name.

The fact that you're comparing Governor Quinn to a murderer says more about you than it does him.

I'm not directly comparing them. I'm using an even more despicable figure to prove how awful this football team mentality has gotten

But that doesn't actually prove it. The sensibility that that proves anything counts as making a comparison.

Quinn is not despicable and the fact that you're saying he is is shameful.

Repeat after me. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=194639.0)

#windjammerismyfriend2014

I wish more people were like him.

He hates Italians for some reason, just ignore it

Is that why Illinois' job creation rate is currently ahead of the Kingdom of Walker?

She isn't even Italian, she's Hispanic she's married to an Italian

Good thing there isn't one on the ballot. Checkmate!

I wish Quinn would have been primaried by a more credible candidate; someone like Lisa Madigan.

LOL.  You guys actually think this is a credible poll?  It's nothing even close to every other one that has come out for this race. 

Do you only come her to make snarky comments?

If by snarky you mean factual and realistic, then yes, that's what I come here for.

So your post in a topic about a poll on the Illinois governor's race was irrelevant? Good to know for future time saving.

I love this thread. This thread truly represents what the Atlas Forum really is about during an election. Just people calling each other idiots and retards and hacks left and right, angered and incensed about the most meaningless of nonsense nothingness. God Bless Atlas.

Bruh you think Garcia is competitive. You're a worse hack than Oldies. Stop.

Yeah this place is hilarious to see. Popcorn

Its just one poll, which may have screwed up internals.  Settle down.

You mean Illinois might not want to vote for someone who wants to abolish the minimum wage, and stashes his company's money in the Cayman Island to avoid taxes? Shocking.

Quit pretending this poll has any chance of being accurate. Seriously.

We all know that if a poll showed up where Nathan Deal or Scott Walker was leading by 11 we'd all be refusing to believe it in any way, shape, or form - but when a poll (from a newspaper (!)) shows up showing Pat Quinn (who is arguably in more trouble than Deal or Walker) leading by 11 (after public polling showing him trailing for months upon months, and the most recent internal showing him with only a 3 point lead), it's suddenly the most accurate poll in existence, just because Quinn has a D after his name? Quit being ridiculous. If outliers favoring republicans are inaccurate, then so are outliers favoring democrats (and vice versa).

Needless to say, this poll has no stake in my ratings.

You guys all know that Quinn is going to win again. Just like we all know McConell is going to win again. Get over it.

Here are the polls from 2010. Quinn trailed in the last 10 polls, and was down 4.5 points in the RCP average.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/il/illinois_governor_brady_vs_quinn-1361.html#polls

For once I'm with Lief

It will be closer than this. The GOP hasnt won the gov since 1998 and Rauner is a businessman not an officeholder and hasnt closed the sale.

I really hope Rauner crushes Quinn. There is no way Quinn is leading by this much.

It terrifies me that a criminal might win reelection.

Like I stated earlier being a businessman may have a distinct disadvantage to being an officeholder. Businessman being against min wage.

But as long as Quinn keeps it close, no blowout, he can beat Rauner in final pill.

Bit harsh there.

Agreed.

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I really want to see a KCDem v.s. Keystone Phil battle on this one.

I support Charlie Crist for the Florida gubernatorial election this year..

That changes nothing. How is Pat Quinn a criminal?

http://politics.suntimes.com/article/springfield/exclusive-prosecutors-subpoena-quinns-anti-violence-program/tue-04292014-520pm (http://politics.suntimes.com/article/springfield/exclusive-prosecutors-subpoena-quinns-anti-violence-program/tue-04292014-520pm)

He's slightly corrupt - most Illinois politicians are, but Rauner wouldn't be any better.

Nothing in that article is proven, unlike Rick Scott's criminal record.

Maybe calling Quinn a "criminal" was a hyperbolic statement, but he is still slightly corrupt nevertheless.

That I can live with, but every politician is corrupt. In that sense Quinn is not very different from Crist in his "corruption."

It is constitutional to kick a state out of the Union right? (Along with New Jersey, Florida, California, South Carolina etc...)

We'd be better off kicking your joke state out of the Union.

Can you please stop?

He's right.

Junk Poll!