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Election Archive => 2014 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Never on September 18, 2014, 07:02:45 am



Title: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Never on September 18, 2014, 07:02:45 am
Article (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2082)

Gardner: 48%
Udall: 40%
Shogan: 8%

Without Independent Steve Shogan, Gardner leads by 10:

Gardner: 52%
Udall: 42%


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipac: Gardner +8
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 18, 2014, 07:04:46 am
Definitely waiting for PPP.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipac: Gardner +8
Post by: Never on September 18, 2014, 07:05:16 am
Definitely waiting for PPP.

With these kinds of numbers, that's definitely a good idea.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 18, 2014, 07:06:16 am
Gardner tied with women? Really?


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipac: Gardner +8
Post by: Solopop on September 18, 2014, 07:06:22 am
...

Either Udall is ed or Quinnipac is ed in the head. I lean towards the later...


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Tender Branson on September 18, 2014, 07:09:15 am
Lean towards "massive outliers" in both CO and IA.

SUSA, which has been pretty good in CO in 2008 and 2012 showed completely different numbers.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Never on September 18, 2014, 07:10:41 am
Gardner tied with women? Really?

At least that's fairly consistent with their poll of the governor's race showing Beauprez up a point with women, though in reality, Gardner tying with women does seem dubious.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Never on September 18, 2014, 07:18:22 am
Does anyone think that Independent candidate Steve Shogan (http://www.shoganforsenate.com/) is actually as strong as this poll is indicating? I just have trouble believing that he is garnering 8% of the vote, considering Suffolk (http://www.politico.com/p/polls/senate/2014-election/colorado/colorado-senate-2014-838#.VBrNPtPjkhM) only had him at 1%, and SurveyUSA (http://www.politico.com/p/polls/senate/2014-election/colorado/colorado-senate-2014-786) had him at 3%.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: eric82oslo on September 18, 2014, 07:28:01 am
From now on, I'm just gonna refer to Quinnipiac as QuinoaPAC. :P
That's how stupid these last two polls (in Colorado) have been lol. :D


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 18, 2014, 07:28:21 am
Never: No. Lynn Bartels said he's a Some Dude ex-Dem.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Snek! on September 18, 2014, 08:06:14 am
Romney was up 5 in Quin this time last cycle.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Never on September 18, 2014, 08:23:41 am
Romney was up 5 in Quin this time last cycle.

True, Quinnipiac overestimated Romney by way too much (about 6 points or so) (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html) in 2012. Still, Quinnipac polls would have to be even more biased towards Republicans this year in Colorado than they were last time in order to completely erase Gardner's lead. If we subtracted 6.4 from Gardner's margin of 8, he still maintains a bare lead of 1.6%. That's not to say that it is impossible for Quinnipiac to have made a glaring error with this polling, but we'll probably need to see some more polls of this race to confirm how inaccurate these numbers are.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Snek! on September 18, 2014, 08:33:19 am
Romney was up 5 in Quin this time last cycle.

True, Quinnipiac overestimated Romney by way too much (about 6 points or so) (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html) in 2012. Still, Quinnipac polls would have to be even more biased towards Republicans this year in Colorado than they were last time in order to completely erase Gardner's lead. If we subtracted 6.4 from Gardner's margin of 8, he still maintains a bare lead of 1.6%. That's not to say that it is impossible for Quinnipiac to have made a glaring error with this polling, but we'll probably need to see some more polls of this race to confirm how inaccurate these numbers are.

I'll go with that.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 18, 2014, 08:40:08 am
What the f-u-c-k is wrong with polls this cycle? They'r all over the place!


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Miles on September 18, 2014, 08:42:51 am
Sabato says Quinnipiac had a OH poll out at this time in 2010 with Kasich +17; he said to treat this poll like that one.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Panda Express on September 18, 2014, 08:52:39 am
Why are you all acting surprised? We all knew this was coming in a poll with a sample that had  Beauprez up 10.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Invisible Obama on September 18, 2014, 08:55:56 am
Yes, with the gubernatorial poll being so inflated, this was to be expected. I can't really see these numbers being accurate at all, these are way too inflated from what we've seen from other polling outfits.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Maxwell on September 18, 2014, 09:16:06 am
Sabato says Quinnipiac had a OH poll out at this time in 2010 with Kasich +17; he said to treat this poll like that one.

Quinnipiac occasionally throws out crap numbers. Otherwise they're a good pollster. This is one of the crap ones.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Snek! on September 18, 2014, 09:40:32 am
Sabato says Quinnipiac had a OH poll out at this time in 2010 with Kasich +17; he said to treat this poll like that one.

Quinnipiac occasionally throws out crap numbers. Otherwise they're a good pollster. This is one of the crap ones.

Yeah. He won by 2, right?


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: backtored on September 18, 2014, 09:48:48 am
So an NBC News poll showing Udall with a comfy lead is totally plausible but a Quinnipiac poll showing Gardner with a similar lead is not?  Sorry, but that doesn't make much sense to me.

Either way, Democrats here and elsewhere have pointed to Udall's consistent lead in the polls as evidence of the supposed "lean D" status of the race.  In two days you have as many polls showing Gardner winning, one of which is well outside the margin.  Is he up eight?  Probably not. But he may very well be leading at this point, which is means that this race is far from Lean D.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 18, 2014, 09:49:54 am
I'll just throw out "R+7."


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: backtored on September 18, 2014, 09:53:40 am
I'll just throw out "R+7."

Which is what 2010 looked like.  A reach?  Yeah, probably.  But certainly not crazy.  It is a rabbit chase trying to reconfigure voter screens and rectangle polling like that.  It is better to take it for what it is and throw it in with the rest of the polling data.  If you do that, you get a race that is probably very, very close.  I just happen to think that it will break strongly for Gardner.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Invisible Obama on September 18, 2014, 09:58:14 am
It's fine if you want to like a poll that produces a result that you find favorable to your own personal view, but you can't expect everyone else to nod in agreement. With an R+7 electorate in 2010, Buck still lost, so this poll could still be off even if you go by that standard. +8 is way too inflated.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Smash255 on September 18, 2014, 10:05:09 am
So an NBC News poll showing Udall with a comfy lead is totally plausible but a Quinnipiac poll showing Gardner with a similar lead is not?  Sorry, but that doesn't make much sense to me.

Either way, Democrats here and elsewhere have pointed to Udall's consistent lead in the polls as evidence of the supposed "lean D" status of the race.  In two days you have as many polls showing Gardner winning, one of which is well outside the margin.  Is he up eight?  Probably not. But he may very well be leading at this point, which is means that this race is far from Lean D.

The +6 might have been a stretch, but it was at least in the ballpark of other polls (the two before and after it was +4, +2, +3, +4).  This poll is 7 points off from anything else out recently, 6 points off from anything out the entire cycle.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: olowakandi on September 18, 2014, 10:09:05 am
If anyone loses it is Hickenlooper, the Udalls are a team and they are much more li
better campaigners, too.

There will be some ticket splitting maybe AR and Ga and even CO.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: KCDem on September 18, 2014, 10:18:25 am
More junk from Quinnijoke polling


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: backtored on September 18, 2014, 10:21:35 am
So an NBC News poll showing Udall with a comfy lead is totally plausible but a Quinnipiac poll showing Gardner with a similar lead is not?  Sorry, but that doesn't make much sense to me.

Either way, Democrats here and elsewhere have pointed to Udall's consistent lead in the polls as evidence of the supposed "lean D" status of the race.  In two days you have as many polls showing Gardner winning, one of which is well outside the margin.  Is he up eight?  Probably not. But he may very well be leading at this point, which is means that this race is far from Lean D.

The +6 might have been a stretch, but it was at least in the ballpark of other polls (the two before and after it was +4, +2, +3, +4).  This poll is 7 points off from anything else out recently, 6 points off from anything out the entire cycle.

There have been polls showing Gardner up four and Gardner up two.  Like I said, the point isn't that Gardner is up by eight.  The point is that it doesn't make a lot of sense to infer from the data that either candidate has much of a durable lead.  The Lean-D proposition is hard to sustain when two polls in two days show the Democrat losing, especially when one of those margins is eight points.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Senator Cris on September 18, 2014, 10:25:07 am
I don't know if Gardner is really in the lead, but if he leads, he leads by 1-2%.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Torie on September 18, 2014, 10:25:23 am
Senator Udall may soon have more to worry about than whether or not this poll is an outlier gone bad, or something suggesting that the the seams are coming apart in his hull -  to wit, that he appears (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/388163/and-you-thought-you-didnt-mark-udall-jim-geraghty) at least facially to have been less than candid, and perhaps totally disingenuous, or just an ineffectual vacillator, on the matter of health care delivery systems in the US - from advocating  just making the private insurance system better, then a 180 degree tack to embracing the public option, and finally landing at the conclusion of his personal little Space Odyssey, upon the little bit of this, a little bit of that, now riddled with executive order waivers and delays, designed to be motored by the toothless now verging on eviscerated mandate penalty, Rube Goldberg toy commonly known as Obamacare.


Expert to hear a lot more about this one from the Gardner campaign. It just drains away Udall's gravitas, and makes him seem just like an opportunistic hack. I suspect he's done myself. We shall see. Indeed, with each week, it seems overall that the prospects for the Dems overall are deteriorating.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Snek! on September 18, 2014, 10:43:39 am
Maybe this year will have R+7 but I don't know how demographic trends could support it. Maybe fracking is causing southern oilmen to move to Colorado?

In 2010 and 2012, it was D+5. In 2008, it was R+1.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: RogueBeaver on September 18, 2014, 10:58:57 am
Team Gardner spoke to NR's Jim Geraghty yesterday (http://www.nationalreview.com/article/388191/gop-game-plan-jim-geraghty): here's what they said on turnout.
Quote from: NR
Note that in the above figures, the Republican advantage is considerably higher in midterm years. Strategists close to the Gardner campaign are hoping for a similar margin in 2014 — though, out of caution, they are basing their turnout calculations on a much closer one.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Snek! on September 18, 2014, 12:05:50 pm
Team Gardner spoke to NR's Jim Geraghty yesterday (http://www.nationalreview.com/article/388191/gop-game-plan-jim-geraghty): here's what they said on turnout.
Quote from: NR
Note that in the above figures, the Republican advantage is considerably higher in midterm years. Strategists close to the Gardner campaign are hoping for a similar margin in 2014 — though, out of caution, they are basing their turnout calculations on a much closer one.

Though that is what internals have compiled, but maybe they are wrong, maybe they are right.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: IceSpear on September 18, 2014, 12:38:27 pm
All pollsters have outliers, even good ones. This is why you don't rely on any single poll. Gardner's best case scenario is probably being up 1-3% at the moment.

That said, I do agree that many people calling this race "lean D" a little while ago was premature.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Mr. Reactionary on September 18, 2014, 12:47:19 pm
All pollsters have outliers, even good ones. This is why you don't rely on any single poll. Gardner's best case scenario is probably being up 1-3% at the moment.

That said, I do agree that many people calling this race "lean D" a little while ago was premature.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Free Bird on September 18, 2014, 01:50:30 pm
It's fine if you want to like a poll that produces a result that you find favorable to your own personal view, but you can't expect everyone else to nod in agreement. With an R+7 electorate in 2010, Buck still lost, so this poll could still be off even if you go by that standard. +8 is way too inflated.

Tell that to Democrats here too


Title: CO: Marquette Law School: Gardner with Lead in Colorado
Post by: Dave Leip on September 18, 2014, 02:37:24 pm
New Poll: Colorado Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2014-09-15 (http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=8220140915015)

Summary: D: 40%, R: 48%, I: 8%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2082)


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: backtored on September 18, 2014, 03:02:12 pm
The movement even within each individual poll has been favorable to Gardner.  Here is the movement for each polling company between now and the last poll that that company released:

PPP: Gardner +3

Rasmussen: Udall +1

Survey USA: New

CBS/NYT/YouGov: Gardner +1

Suffolk: New

Quinnipiac: Gardner +6

The last batch of polling was more favorable to Udall than the present batch, which is why many thought that Udall was polling away (get it?).  I find it more helpful to actually look at trends within each poll, and it is heartening to see that an entire summer of super-spending by Udall aimed at Gardner's abortion stance hasn't weakened the Republican much at all.  Now that there is a parity of spending, Gardner is probably feeling reasonably good about where he stands, even if it will still be a razor tight election.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: ElectionsGuy on September 18, 2014, 04:02:29 pm
Usually Quinnipiac is very reliable, but this is one huge outlier.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Ogre Mage on September 19, 2014, 02:09:39 am
538 says of the recent Quinnipiac Iowa and Colorado Senate polls:

Quote
We should be wary of these latest Quinnipiac surveys. Not only are the results the most Republican-friendly of the year in either state, but Quinnipiac’s polls have previously been too pro-Republican at this point in midterm elections. Its likely voter polls in 2010 had Republican Tom Foley up by 9 percentage points in the Connecticut gubernatorial race; he lost by a point. Quinnipiac had Democrat Andrew Cuomo up by just 6 points in the New York gubernatorial race; he won by 29 points. It had Republican John Kasich up by 17 points in the Ohio gubernatorial race; he won by just 2 points.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-optimistic-numbers-for-gop-in-colorado-and-iowa/ (http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-optimistic-numbers-for-gop-in-colorado-and-iowa/)

Additionally, when Quinnipiac polled the Colorado Senate race in mid-July and found the race at Gardner +1, they had Latino voters as 13% of the voter sample.  The partisan breakdown was  29% R / 27% D, which seems plausible.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co07162014_demos_Cy429pb.pdf (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co07162014_demos_Cy429pb.pdf)

In this most recent poll with with Gardner up +8, Quinnipiac only included Latino voters as 8% of the sample.  So in the last two months, they have decided that the Latino share of the electorate will drop by about 38%!  And as others have mentioned, this poll is weighted at 34% R / 27% D.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co09172014_demos_czm75h.pdf (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co09172014_demos_czm75h.pdf)

I don't know the reason for these changes, but the current poll's sample has been shifted to be extremely GOP friendly.  No wonder Hickenlooper and Udall did so poorly.




Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Tender Branson on October 02, 2014, 02:10:42 am
Maybe this poll is not really an outlier. There's a chance that the GOP swamped the airwaves with their ads when the poll was conducted or slightly before. Now things are back to a tie.


Title: Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner +8
Post by: Snek! on October 02, 2014, 08:37:38 am
Maybe this poll is not really an outlier. There's a chance that the GOP swamped the airwaves with their ads when the poll was conducted or slightly before. Now things are back to a tie.

Like the time Kerry was ahead by 10 and looked good in Missouri,  Ohio and Florida?