Talk Elections

http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/mc-pa-corbett-wolf-poll-20140920-story.html#page=1

Wolf 52
Corbett 31

Dominating!

TOSSUP!!!!! /sabato

Something interesting I've noticed...

Reliable non-partisan polls of this race:
Muhlenberg - Wolf +21
Quinnipiac - Wolf +24
F&M - Wolf +25

Partisan polls:
Harper - Wolf +11
Magellan - Wolf +12

Crappy polls:
YouGov - Wolf +11

Of course, nobody really cares about these differences since it's a blowout win for Wolf no matter who you believe. But the fact that there's a substantial 10 point gap between these firms is pretty interesting. In closer races, a 10 point gap would paint an incredibly different picture of any given race. I'm not saying if you tack 10 points on to the Democrat for any Harper/Magellan/YouGov poll you get reality (obviously not, since that would give Braley a double digit lead, among many other oddities), but it's interesting nevertheless.

I'm sure that many congressional/various local candidates are concerned about the size of the margin.

Lean D. Pennsylvania really likes incumbents! (Cook)

I think Wolf's coattails will be enough for the Democrats to make major gains in the state House, and take control of the State Senate.

This puts exactly zero House seats in play.

Your boneheadedness is getting old.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17yr9mcAtuUdNjI9NEPYKxXsEldzzQ2ZaDwEAbnPRyS4/edit#gid=243225914

Uh. What does that prove?

Let's make a little bet, KC! If any GOP Congressional seat in PA is lost to the Dems in 2014, I'll leave the Forum. Forever. You must think there is at least one seat in play so show some guts and agree to leave for only a month - just one, full month! - if no seat flips from R to D in PA in 2014.

I never claimed that the Democrats would win a seat. You're the one who refuses to accept the fact that there is a lot of uncertainty with regard to what is going on down ballot in Pennsylvania. Since you're so certain, I encourage you to share substantiated proof of your certainty.

Yeah, there's no way that Wolf's victory, no matter how huge, could flip a US congressional race.

It definitely could flip some state house and state senate races though

See, this certainty is unwarranted. If Republican turnout is dampened we COULD have a surprise in the 6th and the 8th. Not saying we will, but it could happen.

No, no it won't happen. I wish it would, but it won't this year.


I said that a couple posts above. Control of the State Senate is definitely in play.

Yeah, Wolf's (potential) coattails on their own probably wouldn't be enough for Trivedi or Strouse. They're going to need some other type of opening/game changer in addition to that in order to win.

Winning isn't actually everything. With these House races coming up again every two years sometimes just beating expectations is important.

Why would Republican turn out be dampened when they have the momentum nation wide?

Not sure why pollsters are still wasting money in Pennsylvania.  The race is pretty much done.  There is no way Corbett comes back from this.

Because Pennsylvania pollsters are always going to poll important Pennsylvania races.

New Poll: Pennsylvania Governor by Muhlenberg College on 2014-09-18 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4220140918033)

Summary: D: 54%, R: 33%, I: 4%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.muhlenberg.edu/pdf/main/academics/polisci/PA_Gov_Sept2014_Frequency.pdf)

There's zero uncertainty when it comes to the Congressional races. State legislature? Sure. Congressional? No.

So, even if F&M is right and Wolf wins by 31 (I doubt it, but it's within the realm of possibility), you don't see the 6th and/or 8th district congressional seat(s) flipping? It's worth noting that most prognosticators still have at least one of these two seats at only Likely R, which indicates a small level of uncertainty in the outcome of the race.

Read this perfectly clear post: I absolutely do not see that happening. The Gubernatorial race has had zero impact on those races. If either was to flip, it would be unrelated to Corbett. Either Fitz or Costello would have to make some fairly sizable gaffe. Other than that, neither will flip even if Wolf won by thirty points.

If either seat flips, I leave this place for good. Write it down.