Talk Elections

Article. (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/09/iowa-senate-race-remains-close-slight-edge-to-ernst.html)

Ernst (R)- 44%
Braley (D)- 42%
Others- 3%
Not sure- 10%

In a two-way, its Ernst 45/43.

Republicans lead 45/41 on the generic legislative ballot.

I guess it could have been worse...

Still depressing, but meh, what can I do?

The way everyone was talking up this poll, I thought Ernst was going to lead by about 12.

PPP was tweeting a few days ago that "she's definitely ahead".

I was also thinking that she'd be ahead 4-8 considering this.

This race is gonna be close. I still think Braley could comeback.

I keep reassuring myself that Braley will eventually reveal to the people of Iowa that Joni Ernst is just a Sharron Angle-type in disguise, but he's ran such a poor campaign I'm doubtful that'll ever happen.

Yea, but still, PPP seems to agree with the Selzer poll in terms of the direction of this race. Braley's numbers have gone down consistently to the point that Ernst, at -4, is the more popular person in the race, even as Braley started with a +10 favorable rating. Oh, and Independents HATE Braley 27-47, while Ernst is even with that group.

Obviously this can change, but I'm starting to feel this race slip away from Braley's hands.

Here's the problem with the whole Braley's not attacking Joni Ernst enough - he is. Most of his ads are attacking Ernst as a far out right-winger. The problem is, it isn't working.

She has peaked out already, since the debate, which was helpful to Braley, this will again head towards him now.

And what evidence is there to back this up?

Ernst is already collapsing, a poll from a few days ago had her up by 5, now she's only up by 2.

From the left leaning PPP. This is still good news.

PPP has a Republican leaning bias of 0.7%.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/ (http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/)

It was 6, and Selzer is actually a more reputable pollster than PPP according to Nate Silver.

How are they left-leaning... the best state-level pollsters overall from 2010 and 2012...

This really needs to be put to bed. If anything, their national polls in 2012 had a right-bent.

Even if yuh PPP was neutral, 538 had them in the C range, which isn't that good. Even if THAT wasn't the case and PPP was perfect, it still showed an Ernst lead in what is bound to be a close race just based on how Iowa votes.

Talleyrand warned us about this, and we didn't listen.

I will now accept my accolades. Ernst is a wonderful candidate.

Wonderful is really pushing it. In fact, it's downright lie, since she is crazy.

If she were literally crazy, wouldn't she have lost the debate with Braley? ::)

Crazy doesn't necessarily equal stupid. Her views are what is crazy, she believes in Agenda 21 of all things.

Well, by that extent, I suppose most of us Republicans are crazy, because our party put opposition to Agenda 21 into the 2012 national platform. (http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/29/republican-platform-opposes-agenda-21/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0) :P

..wait, she believes the Agenda 21 conspiracy theory?

The Republican Party as a whole is hardly a bastion of sanity.

http://news.yahoo.com/will-joni-ernst-s-flirtations-with-the-political-fringe-haunt-her-in-november-223054974.html?soc_src=mediacontentstory