Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Lizzzard on October 03, 2014, 11:53:35 am



Title: GA-InsiderAdvantage/FOX5 Atlanta: Deal up by 0.3 points
Post by: Lizzzard on October 03, 2014, 11:53:35 am
43.7% Deal
43.4% Carter
  4.0% Hunt
  9.0% Undecided

Today’s poll surveyed 947 likely voters between Monday and Wednesday by automated phone calls and online, and it has a 3.2 percent margin of error.

http://chronicle.augusta.com/news/government/elections/2014-10-03/poll-ga-senate-governor-races-tied


Title: Re: GA-InsiderAdvantage/FOX5 Atlanta: Deal up by 0.3 points
Post by: Cory Booker on October 03, 2014, 11:56:32 am
Jason Carter is stll keeping it close.


Title: Re: GA-InsiderAdvantage/FOX5 Atlanta: Deal up by 0.3 points
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 03, 2014, 12:05:28 pm
Deal led by 4 I think in their last poll, so Carter is gaining.


Title: Re: GA-InsiderAdvantage/FOX5 Atlanta: Deal up by 0.3 points
Post by: King on October 03, 2014, 12:35:09 pm
IA is still a thing?


Title: Re: GA-InsiderAdvantage/FOX5 Atlanta: Deal up by 0.3 points
Post by: Landslide Andy on October 03, 2014, 12:45:47 pm
Big Deal!


Title: Re: GA-InsiderAdvantage/FOX5 Atlanta: Deal up by 0.3 points
Post by: Joshua on October 03, 2014, 12:57:23 pm
>Decimals


Title: Re: GA-InsiderAdvantage/FOX5 Atlanta: Deal up by 0.3 points
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on October 03, 2014, 01:01:00 pm
InsiderAdvantage is a joke firm.

So Carter is probably leading.


Title: GA: Insider Advantage: Deadheat in Georgia governor's race
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 03, 2014, 02:54:16 pm
New Poll: Georgia Governor by Insider Advantage on 2014-10-01 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1320141001034)

Summary: D: 43%, R: 44%, I: 4%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://chronicle.augusta.com/news/government/elections/2014-10-03/poll-ga-senate-governor-races-tied)


Title: Re: GA-InsiderAdvantage/FOX5 Atlanta: Deal up by 0.3 points
Post by: President Griffin on October 05, 2014, 01:06:22 am
Fantastic news! If IA could be trusted and we went off its crosstabs, Carter getting 32% of the white vote is enough for a majority. Looking at the crosstabs, though...I really don't think Carter will do that well with whites and blacks are oversampled here as well.

On the other hand, Latinos/Asians/others are only 2% of the poll (should be at least 5-6% in this election) and they're skewed very heavily to Deal. In addition to that, the oversampling of blacks is cancelled out by the fact that the poll only shows 66% voting for Carter at the moment.

I think overall it balances out, and this is a tie at the moment.

What I do find hilarious (and it's not just IA: other polls have shown this, too) is the 18-29 demographic going for Carter and Perdue each by about 10 points.

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