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Title: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 08, 2014, 03:28:58 PM GET PUMPED (https://twitter.com/danablanton_nyc/status/519944560039194624)
Is Kansas really a toss-up again suddenly? Was SUSA on to something in Kentucky? Why is Fox news wasting money on polling Alaska? Find out in an hour and a half. Title: Re: New Fox polls at 6 eastern! AK, AR, CO, KS, KY! Post by: cinyc on October 08, 2014, 04:09:01 PM GET PUMPED (https://twitter.com/danablanton_nyc/status/519944560039194624) Is Kansas really a toss-up again suddenly? Was SUSA on to something in Kentucky? Why is Fox news wasting money on polling Alaska? Find out in an hour and a half. How is polling a state with competitive Senate and Governor's races wasting money? Even if they weren't, isn't more polling better than no polling? Title: Re: New Fox polls at 6 eastern! AK, AR, CO, KS, KY! Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 08, 2014, 04:10:17 PM GET PUMPED (https://twitter.com/danablanton_nyc/status/519944560039194624) Is Kansas really a toss-up again suddenly? Was SUSA on to something in Kentucky? Why is Fox news wasting money on polling Alaska? Find out in an hour and a half. How is polling a state with competitive Senate and Governor's races wasting money? Even if they weren't, isn't more polling better than no polling? Alaska polls ain't worth the paper they're printed on. But this is apparently the first live caller, non-partisan in Alaska this year, so that's actually pretty good. Title: Re: New Fox polls at 6 eastern! AK, AR, CO, KS, KY! Post by: RI on October 08, 2014, 04:19:42 PM Curious to see how this compares to CNN's new poll.
Title: Re: New Fox polls at 6 eastern! AK, AR, CO, KS, KY! Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 08, 2014, 04:53:16 PM Republicans lead in every single race.
RIP Democratic party. Title: Re: New Fox polls at 6 eastern! AK, AR, CO, KS, KY! Post by: RogueBeaver on October 08, 2014, 04:54:07 PM Here are the results. 44/39 Roberts in KS, 44/40 Sullivan in AK, 46/39 Cotton in AR, 43/37 Gardner in CO, 45/41 McConnell in KY. (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/10/08/fox-news-polls-senate-battleground-races-trending-gop-roberts-up-in-kansas/)
Title: Re: New Fox polls at 6 eastern! AK, AR, CO, KS, KY! Post by: Mehmentum on October 08, 2014, 04:55:08 PM Truly horrible results for the Dems, especially in CO and KS.
Title: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: JRP1994 on October 08, 2014, 04:55:12 PM http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/10/08/fox-news-polls-senate-battleground-races-trending-gop-roberts-up-in-kansas/
Roberts: 45% Orman: 39% Sullivan: 44% Begich: 40% Cotton: 46% Pryor: 39% Gardner: 43% Udall: 37% McConnell: 45% Grimes: 41% Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: Maxwell on October 08, 2014, 04:56:28 PM Consistent with Fox lately - 3 out of 5 sound normal, then 2 (Roberts and Gardner up by 6) look suspect.
Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on October 08, 2014, 05:01:21 PM I even believe the Gardner one. It's just that Roberts number looks way off. I almost wish he was down big because that would validate the Brownback comeback on the governor's side.
Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: DrScholl on October 08, 2014, 05:03:09 PM Did they not push leaners? That seems to be too many undecideds at this stage.
Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: eric82oslo on October 08, 2014, 05:06:07 PM Junk. Throw it in the trash.
Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: IceSpear on October 08, 2014, 05:07:29 PM AR/KY/AK look about right.
As for KS/CO, I think I'm gonna go with "everyone else" over FOX. Nice try though guys. Title: Re: New Fox polls at 6 eastern! AK, AR, CO, KS, KY! Post by: backtored on October 08, 2014, 05:07:34 PM That is amazing.
Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: backtored on October 08, 2014, 05:08:35 PM AR/KY/AK look about right. As for KS/CO, I think I'm gonna go with "everyone else" over FOX. Nice try though guys. Wait. Everyone else has Gardner up, too. Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: mypalfish on October 08, 2014, 05:11:27 PM AR/KY/AK look about right. As for KS/CO, I think I'm gonna go with "everyone else" over FOX. Nice try though guys. Wait. Everyone else has Gardner up, too. And CNN also has Roberts up. Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: IceSpear on October 08, 2014, 05:13:06 PM AR/KY/AK look about right. As for KS/CO, I think I'm gonna go with "everyone else" over FOX. Nice try though guys. Wait. Everyone else has Gardner up, too. Yes, but Ras/PPP/Suffolk all give him up a 1/2 point lead, not a 6 point lead. Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: Maistre on October 08, 2014, 05:13:18 PM Ha!
Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: backtored on October 08, 2014, 05:15:57 PM AR/KY/AK look about right. As for KS/CO, I think I'm gonna go with "everyone else" over FOX. Nice try though guys. Wait. Everyone else has Gardner up, too. Yes, but Ras/PPP/Suffolk all give him up a 1/2 point lead, not a 6 point lead. And Q gives him an eight-point lead. Fox News merely splits the difference. Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: DrScholl on October 08, 2014, 05:17:03 PM Quinnipiac's poll was wildly inflated, and it's pretty old by now. I think Fox News is playing games here, as most other pollster are not showing this many undecideds. They pulled a stunt with the LA-Sen poll.
Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: IceSpear on October 08, 2014, 05:18:58 PM AR/KY/AK look about right. As for KS/CO, I think I'm gonna go with "everyone else" over FOX. Nice try though guys. Wait. Everyone else has Gardner up, too. Yes, but Ras/PPP/Suffolk all give him up a 1/2 point lead, not a 6 point lead. And Q gives him an eight-point lead. Fox News merely splits the difference. But if you're going to go back that far (nearly a month ago), there's also Marist/SUSA which showed Udall up 6/4 points and were only a week before Quinnipiac's poll. Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 08, 2014, 05:19:08 PM Keep in mind that Fox News currently thinks Republicans have a 7% lead on the generic ballot.
Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 08, 2014, 05:19:41 PM Sadly it looks like Fox is in the October mood where they want republicans to win.
Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: Keystone Phil on October 08, 2014, 05:21:11 PM Polls showing Orman leading are officially outliers.
Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: backtored on October 08, 2014, 05:51:42 PM Sadly it looks like Fox is in the October mood where they want republicans to win. Is there anything substantive that evidences that? Because these are very fair polls from a very fair pollster. Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 08, 2014, 06:00:58 PM AK, AR, KY seem about right. KS is obviously significantly off. CO is too - not so much because of the spread but because it shows Udall at only 37%.
Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: cinyc on October 08, 2014, 06:01:07 PM Quinnipiac's poll was wildly inflated, and it's pretty old by now. I think Fox News is playing games here, as most other pollster are not showing this many undecideds. They pulled a stunt with the LA-Sen poll. Yeah, I'm sure the Democratic pollster Anderson Robbins Research who is part of the bipartisan duo that polls for Fox News is allowing Fox News to play games with polls by not reporting undecideds. After all, they have no incentive to show the Democratic candidates up. You just can't take polls that show your candidates down at face value, can you? Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: Eraserhead on October 08, 2014, 06:04:04 PM This looks like a bunch of Republican fantasy junk.
Kind of interesting to see McConnell tied with Sullivan for the smallest leads here though. Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: Free Bird on October 08, 2014, 06:12:16 PM I thought FOX was fairly decent at polls. Just because the network is hilarious doesn't mean all polls are automatically junk.
Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: IceSpear on October 08, 2014, 06:12:31 PM Quinnipiac's poll was wildly inflated, and it's pretty old by now. I think Fox News is playing games here, as most other pollster are not showing this many undecideds. They pulled a stunt with the LA-Sen poll. Yeah, I'm sure the Democratic pollster Anderson Robbins Research who is part of the bipartisan duo that polls for Fox News is allowing Fox News to play games with polls by not reporting undecideds. After all, they have no incentive to show the Democratic candidates up. You just can't take polls that show your candidates down at face value, can you? Well let's not forget that Alan Colmes and Pat Caddell are some examples of "FOX News Democrats". It really depends whether or not Anderson Robbins Research is in that mold of eunuch Democrats or not. And he brought up a good point, that FOX's previous Louisiana poll has now been shown to be complete bogus. Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: Matty on October 08, 2014, 06:21:04 PM Are these polls junk?
Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: DrScholl on October 08, 2014, 06:31:15 PM Quinnipiac's poll was wildly inflated, and it's pretty old by now. I think Fox News is playing games here, as most other pollster are not showing this many undecideds. They pulled a stunt with the LA-Sen poll. Yeah, I'm sure the Democratic pollster Anderson Robbins Research who is part of the bipartisan duo that polls for Fox News is allowing Fox News to play games with polls by not reporting undecideds. After all, they have no incentive to show the Democratic candidates up. You just can't take polls that show your candidates down at face value, can you? Take many seats, please. It's the huge number of undecideds that make these polls suspect, seeing as no one else is showing such high undecideds anymore. Even if there is a Democratic pollster on staff, pollsters are still paid to do a job and pushing leaners was not part of the job. Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: krazen1211 on October 08, 2014, 06:44:19 PM Oh, wow! Multiple thrashings.
Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: cinyc on October 08, 2014, 06:44:52 PM Take many seats, please. It's the huge number of undecideds that make these polls suspect, seeing as no one else is showing such high undecideds anymore. Even if there is a Democratic pollster on staff, pollsters are still paid to do a job and pushing leaners was not part of the job. So I guess the recent Survey USA (11%), Marist (15%) and Suffolk (13%) Kansas polls, which showed HIGHER undecideds than this Fox News Poll (10%) are even more suspect than the Fox News poll? Or are those polls okay because they show the candidate you want in the lead and this one doesn't? Plenty of pollsters are showing undecideds in the 7-13% range right now, like these Fox News polls, especially in Kansas. Look it up in the database if you don't believe me. Or just find another thing "wrong" about the poll to discredit it because you don't like the result, like you always do. Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: DrScholl on October 08, 2014, 07:10:04 PM Take many seats, please. It's the huge number of undecideds that make these polls suspect, seeing as no one else is showing such high undecideds anymore. Even if there is a Democratic pollster on staff, pollsters are still paid to do a job and pushing leaners was not part of the job. So I guess the recent Survey USA (11%), Marist (15%) and Suffolk (13%) Kansas polls, which showed HIGHER undecideds than this Fox News Poll (10%) are even more suspect than the Fox News poll? Or are those polls okay because they show the candidate you want in the lead and this one doesn't? Plenty of pollsters are showing undecideds in the 7-13% range right now, like these Fox News polls, especially in Kansas. Look it up in the database if you don't believe me. Or just find another thing "wrong" about the poll to discredit it because you don't like the result, like you always do. Once again, I have to tell you to calm down, because you just go into some angry mode. At this stage, I find it hard to believe any of the candidates is actually in the 30s at this point. I'm not discrediting the polls because I don't like the result. Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: Mogrovejo on October 08, 2014, 07:42:45 PM When there are so many polls showing double digits undecideds (the CNN/ORC poll is the outlier here), and all type of polls (robo, livecalling, RDD, voter file), I don't think it's wise to bet against them. This Kansas race has developed very oddly and unexpectedly, it's not that far-fetched many LVs still haven't made a decision.
Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: Maxwell on October 08, 2014, 07:43:58 PM Polls showing Orman leading are officially outliers. Never change buddy Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: krazen1211 on October 08, 2014, 09:14:51 PM Spot the outlier!
RCP Average 9/13 - 10/7 -- -- 44.8 43.5 Gardner +1.3 FOX News 10/4 - 10/7 739 LV 3.5 43 37 Gardner +6 CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20 - 10/1 1634 LV 3.0 45 48 Udall +3 Rasmussen Reports 9/29 - 9/30 950 LV 3.0 48 47 Gardner +1 USA Today/Suffolk* 9/13 - 9/16 500 LV 4.4 43 42 Gardner +1 Quinnipiac* 9/10 - 9/15 1211 LV 2.8 48 40 Gardner +8 Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: free my dawg on October 08, 2014, 09:31:51 PM "News"
Spot the outlier! RCP Average 9/13 - 10/7 -- -- 44.8 43.5 Gardner +1.3 FOX News 10/4 - 10/7 739 LV 3.5 43 37 Gardner +6 CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20 - 10/1 1634 LV 3.0 45 48 Udall +3 Rasmussen Reports 9/29 - 9/30 950 LV 3.0 48 47 Gardner +1 USA Today/Suffolk* 9/13 - 9/16 500 LV 4.4 43 42 Gardner +1 Quinnipiac* 9/10 - 9/15 1211 LV 2.8 48 40 Gardner +8 In all fairness YouGov is a steaming pile of sh*t that I've disregarded. Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort on October 08, 2014, 09:50:59 PM 538 on why these polls don't tell us anything new. (http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-dont-go-crazy/)
Title: Re: New Fox polls at 6 eastern! AK, AR, CO, KS, KY! Post by: Eraserhead on October 08, 2014, 11:43:17 PM Republicans lead in every single race. RIP Democratic party. It's probably for the best. Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: IceSpear on October 09, 2014, 12:25:25 AM Spot the outlier! RCP Average 9/13 - 10/7 -- -- 44.8 43.5 Gardner +1.3 FOX News 10/4 - 10/7 739 LV 3.5 43 37 Gardner +6 CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20 - 10/1 1634 LV 3.0 45 48 Udall +3 Rasmussen Reports 9/29 - 9/30 950 LV 3.0 48 47 Gardner +1 USA Today/Suffolk* 9/13 - 9/16 500 LV 4.4 43 42 Gardner +1 Quinnipiac* 9/10 - 9/15 1211 LV 2.8 48 40 Gardner +8 FOX, YouGov, and Quinnipiac. That was easy. In fact, Udall +3 is actually closer to the average than Gardner +6 or Gardner +8 is. Median is Gardner +1 as well, Gardner +1.5 if you count the PPP poll that RCP doesn't list. Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: IceSpear on October 09, 2014, 12:54:24 AM FiveThirtyEight wrote an article about these polls:
Quote At about 6 p.m. Wednesday, a collective Democratic spit-take splattered computer screens around the country (at least that’s what I imagined happened). Fox News released new polls showing Republican candidates ahead by 4 percentage points in Alaska, 6 percentage points in Colorado, 5 percentage points in Kansas and 4 percentage points in Kentucky. The polls look like a disaster for Democrats. They’re not. FiveThirtyEight’s Senate forecast has Republican chances of taking back the Senate at 56.4 percent — basically unchanged from the 56.5 percent we showed Tuesday. The forecast barely budged because the Senate model doesn’t take polls at face value. Fox News polls throughout this election cycle have had a fairly strong pro-Republican house effect, a measure of how a pollster’s results compare to other polls. For instance, Fox News’s generic ballot has shown Republicans up by 7 percentage points among likely voters for two polls in a row, while the average pollster has shown Republicans up by 3 points. Looking at national and state data, Fox News currently has a +3.6 percentage-point pro-Republican house effect. http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-dont-go-crazy/ Title: KS: Fox News: Roberts with Slight Lead in Kansas Post by: ElectionAtlas on October 09, 2014, 03:42:37 AM New Poll: Kansas Senator by Fox News on 2014-10-07 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=20220141007039)
Summary: D: 0%, R: 44%, I: 39%, U: 19% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://personal.crocodoc.com/ZkmxzAN?embedded=true) Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: Tender Branson on October 09, 2014, 03:45:53 AM Reminds me of a song from the band "Garbage":
Quote The lies lies lies You love those lies, You tell them straight, Straight to my face They feel so right They keep you safe And you're so... Good at it, oh it comes automatic Lies more lies I can tell they're lies I can see right through, You have see-through eyes Not more to add to these Faux News polls. Title: AK: Fox News: Sullivan with Slight Lead in Alaska Post by: ElectionAtlas on October 09, 2014, 03:53:02 AM New Poll: Alaska Senator by Fox News on 2014-10-07 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2220141007039)
Summary: D: 40%, R: 44%, I: 6%, U: 10% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://personal.crocodoc.com/aAZpujj?embedded=true) Title: AR: Fox News: Cotton with Slight Lead in Arkansas Post by: ElectionAtlas on October 09, 2014, 04:01:55 AM New Poll: Arkansas Senator by Fox News on 2014-10-07 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5220141007039)
Summary: D: 39%, R: 46%, I: 5%, U: 11% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://personal.crocodoc.com/GR6YYU7?embedded=true) Title: CO: Fox News: Gardner with Slight Lead in Colorado Post by: ElectionAtlas on October 09, 2014, 04:07:06 AM New Poll: Colorado Senator by Fox News on 2014-10-07 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=8220141007039)
Summary: D: 37%, R: 43%, I: 7%, U: 12% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://personal.crocodoc.com/yUmhLBF?embedded=true) Title: KY: Fox News: McConnell with Slight Lead in Kentucky Post by: ElectionAtlas on October 09, 2014, 04:10:41 AM New Poll: Kentucky Senator by Fox News on 2014-10-07 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=21220141007039)
Summary: D: 41%, R: 45%, I: 6%, U: 9% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://personal.crocodoc.com/PPirZXI?embedded=true) Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: henster on October 09, 2014, 06:02:20 PM I don't believe there are 20% undecided in Colorado this close to the election.
Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: cinyc on October 09, 2014, 06:22:18 PM I don't believe there are 20% undecided in Colorado this close to the election. There aren't. 11% are undecided, which is pretty much in line with the recent Suffolk poll. 7% back one of the many other candidates in the race, which is slightly below Quinnipiac. Unlike in some other states, Fox News didn't poll the other candidates by name but asked if they would support "one of the other candidates" in the race. 1% volunteered that they wouldn't vote in that race. Fox News polls keep people who volunteer that they wouldn't vote in a particular race in the overall tally for some reason. I don't know if other pollsters do. I guess they do it to keep the number of respondents the same for all poll questions. Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: tmthforu94 on October 09, 2014, 09:41:34 PM The one thing I do like about this is that while I'm unsure Roberts is up by this much, the sampling stayed almost the same yet Roberts improved by this much. Republicans are coming home to Roberts - the "big guns" coming to the state seems to be working. This is why I'm feeling more and more confident that he wins on Election Day.
Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: SPC on October 09, 2014, 09:47:07 PM The one thing I do like about this is that while I'm unsure Roberts is up by this much, the sampling stayed almost the same yet Roberts improved by this much. Republicans are coming home to Roberts - the "big guns" coming to the state seems to be working. This is why I'm feeling more and more confident that he wins on Election Day. I already feel credulous for having taken Orman's leads at face value. I suspect that Roberts (and Brownback, for that matter) will be consistently ahead come the end of October. I also suspect that Phil will gloat that his stopped watch gave the correct time twice in the same day. Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: IceSpear on October 09, 2014, 11:23:52 PM The one thing I do like about this is that while I'm unsure Roberts is up by this much, the sampling stayed almost the same yet Roberts improved by this much. Republicans are coming home to Roberts - the "big guns" coming to the state seems to be working. This is why I'm feeling more and more confident that he wins on Election Day. I already feel credulous for having taken Orman's leads at face value. I suspect that Roberts (and Brownback, for that matter) will be consistently ahead come the end of October. I also suspect that Phil will gloat that his stopped watch gave the correct time twice in the same day. Why is FOX any more credible than the consensus of the other pollsters? Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: SPC on October 09, 2014, 11:35:05 PM The one thing I do like about this is that while I'm unsure Roberts is up by this much, the sampling stayed almost the same yet Roberts improved by this much. Republicans are coming home to Roberts - the "big guns" coming to the state seems to be working. This is why I'm feeling more and more confident that he wins on Election Day. I already feel credulous for having taken Orman's leads at face value. I suspect that Roberts (and Brownback, for that matter) will be consistently ahead come the end of October. I also suspect that Phil will gloat that his stopped watch gave the correct time twice in the same day. Why is FOX any more credible than the consensus of the other pollsters? We now have three polls showing Roberts tied or ahead of Orman. Granted, Orman is ahead in just as many polls, albeit with larger leads, but it does seem to indicate that there is a lot of uncertainty in this race. I would agree that if the election were today, Orman would probably win, hence why I indicated Roberts will likely pull ahead by the end of this month. Title: Re: Fox Polls for KS, AK, AR, KY CO Post by: IceSpear on October 10, 2014, 07:09:14 PM LOLFOX. Looks like it's best to ignore them from now on. Their "news" seems to be seeping into their polling.
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