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Election Archive => 2014 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: krazen1211 on October 13, 2014, 08:41:02 am



Title: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: krazen1211 on October 13, 2014, 08:41:02 am
Link (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/iowa/election_2014_iowa_senate)

Ernst 48
Bailey 45



What a spectacular poll!


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: Dereich on October 13, 2014, 08:52:50 am
Obligatory >Rasmussen


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 13, 2014, 09:12:00 am
Well, the Republican is leading in this one, so they probably won't take it back like they did with the KS poll. ::)


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: Dixie Reborn on October 13, 2014, 09:34:54 am
Link to come.

Ernst 48
Bailey Braley 45



What a spectacular poll!


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: dmmidmi on October 13, 2014, 09:42:10 am
So, adjusting for the fact that this is Rasmussen, it's tied?


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: Maxwell on October 13, 2014, 09:43:09 am
So, adjusting for the fact that this is Rasmussen, it's tied?

Generally a 3 point lead means its tied anyways.


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: Eraserhead on October 13, 2014, 12:09:36 pm
What did their last poll look like?


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 13, 2014, 12:36:48 pm
What did their last poll look like?

A tie. This is absolutely abysmal for soon-to-be-former member of Congress Braley.


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: Invisible Obama on October 13, 2014, 12:40:02 pm
Ernst will get at least 48%, that much is evident, but that last couple of points are less likely to materialize. Braley was up big with people that already voted, so he's probably already won.


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: krazen1211 on October 13, 2014, 12:42:11 pm
Braley was up big with people that already voted, so he's probably already won.

What an astonishing theory given that the ballots cannot legally be counted right now.


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: Free Bird on October 13, 2014, 12:46:23 pm
Braley was up big with people that already voted, so he's probably already won.

What an astonishing theory given that the ballots cannot legally be counted right now.


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: Mr. Reactionary on October 13, 2014, 03:14:10 pm
Braley was up big with people that already voted, so he's probably already won.

What an astonishing theory given that the ballots cannot legally be counted right now.


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: IceSpear on October 13, 2014, 03:33:32 pm
I guess not enough people went to vote.brucebailey.com

But seriously, I trusted Selzer over Ras even when Ras was giving me a result liked more, so of course I'm trusting Selzer over Ras when it's the opposite.


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: IceSpear on October 13, 2014, 03:35:01 pm
What did their last poll look like?

A tie. This is absolutely abysmal for soon-to-be-former member of Congress Braley.

Ernst dropped by 5 in the poll that has more weight than 100 Ras polls combined, so not really.


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: R2D2 on October 13, 2014, 04:00:43 pm
So, adjusting for the fact that this is Rasmussen, it's tied?

Generally a 3 point lead means its tied anyways.

So Braley leads by 3?


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: Invisible Obama on October 13, 2014, 08:11:59 pm
Braley was up big with people that already voted, so he's probably already won.

What an astonishing theory given that the ballots cannot legally be counted right now.

What an astonishingly clueless response. At this point, if he's received a good amount of early vote, it makes it harder for Ernst to make up the difference on election day. You are so ignorant.


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: Free Bird on October 13, 2014, 08:16:02 pm
Braley was up big with people that already voted, so he's probably already won.

What an astonishing theory given that the ballots cannot legally be counted right now.

What an astonishingly clueless response. At this point, if he's received a good amount of early vote, it makes it harder for Ernst to make up the difference on election day. You are so ignorant.

Mr. Pot, meet Mr. Kettle. Early votes are blue. Get it through your skull


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: Miles on October 13, 2014, 08:17:28 pm
>Rasmussen


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: krazen1211 on October 13, 2014, 08:22:31 pm
Braley was up big with people that already voted, so he's probably already won.

What an astonishing theory given that the ballots cannot legally be counted right now.

What an astonishingly clueless response. At this point, if he's received a good amount of early vote, it makes it harder for Ernst to make up the difference on election day. You are so ignorant.

So we've gone from 'probably already won' to 'received a good amount of the early vote' for a candidate that has 0 votes and is trailing in almost every poll.

OK!


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: Invisible Obama on October 13, 2014, 08:23:43 pm
Braley was up big with people that already voted, so he's probably already won.

What an astonishing theory given that the ballots cannot legally be counted right now.

What an astonishingly clueless response. At this point, if he's received a good amount of early vote, it makes it harder for Ernst to make up the difference on election day. You are so ignorant.

Mr. Pot, meet Mr. Kettle. Early votes are blue. Get it through your skull

And they have to be counted on election night, whether Republican want them to be or not. Republicans rely more on election day vote, so Ernst will have to really clean up to offset the early vote.


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: Invisible Obama on October 13, 2014, 08:30:03 pm
Braley was up big with people that already voted, so he's probably already won.

What an astonishing theory given that the ballots cannot legally be counted right now.

What an astonishingly clueless response. At this point, if he's received a good amount of early vote, it makes it harder for Ernst to make up the difference on election day. You are so ignorant.

So we've gone from 'probably already won' to 'received a good amount of the early vote' for a candidate that has 0 votes and is trailing in almost every poll.

OK!


Uhm, one statement does not negate the other, genius. If Braley cleans up with the early vote and is practically tied in polling going into election day, then he has already won. In 2012, Obama won the early vote big in several places and went on to win outright.

Stop being so argumentative, it's annoying.


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: krazen1211 on October 13, 2014, 08:40:54 pm

Uhm, one statement does not negate the other, genius. If Braley cleans up with the early vote and is practically tied in polling going into election day, then he has already won. In 2012, Obama won the early vote big in several places and went on to win outright.

Stop being so argumentative, it's annoying.

That's not how it actually works.


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: Invisible Obama on October 13, 2014, 08:54:11 pm

Uhm, one statement does not negate the other, genius. If Braley cleans up with the early vote and is practically tied in polling going into election day, then he has already won. In 2012, Obama won the early vote big in several places and went on to win outright.

Stop being so argumentative, it's annoying.

That's not how it actually works.

Those votes have to be counted on election night along with the rest of the votes.

But, we'll see who wins on election day. If it's Braley (and it will be), I'm going to directly tell you, "I told you so".


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: krazen1211 on October 13, 2014, 09:07:40 pm

Uhm, one statement does not negate the other, genius. If Braley cleans up with the early vote and is practically tied in polling going into election day, then he has already won. In 2012, Obama won the early vote big in several places and went on to win outright.

Stop being so argumentative, it's annoying.

That's not how it actually works.

Those votes have to be counted on election night along with the rest of the votes.

But, we'll see who wins on election day. If it's Braley (and it will be), I'm going to directly tell you, "I told you so".

Very well. In the meantime I suppose you can hang your hat on this PPP (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_Iowa_710.pdf) poll.


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: Joshua on October 13, 2014, 09:15:51 pm
Link to come.

Ernst 48
Bailey Braley 45



What a spectacular poll!

I think that was a crack at Michelle Obama's Braley campaign event.


Title: Re: IA-Sen, Rasmussen: Ernst in the lead
Post by: Illuminati Blood Drinker on October 14, 2014, 11:24:14 pm
Oh phew, I was worried the Republicans almost had this in the bag.