Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2014 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on October 15, 2014, 06:20:29 AM



Title: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: Tender Branson on October 15, 2014, 06:20:29 AM
New Poll: Iowa Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2014-10-13 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=19220141013015)

Summary: D: 45%, R: 47%, I: 3%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2095)


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: JRP1994 on October 15, 2014, 06:31:03 AM
Reversion to the mean.


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: Tender Branson on October 15, 2014, 06:32:38 AM
Something is wrong with the Braley numbers, they are 2% too low.

Quinnipiac shows that the (weighted) sample is 30% D, 29% R and 41% I.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia10152014_demos_Ihst243bn.pdf

Ernst wins Republicans 95-2.

Braley wins Democrats 89-7.

Braley wins Indies 48-43.

...

Which means both Ernst and Braley have 47% overall if my math skills are not all too bad.

Could be a rounding issue though.


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: krazen1211 on October 15, 2014, 07:04:48 AM
Castrated.


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on October 15, 2014, 07:36:33 AM
This race pisses me off so much.


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 15, 2014, 07:44:27 AM
"Something is wrong with the Braley numbers: he's losing."


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: Maxwell on October 15, 2014, 07:45:43 AM
Lol at the unskewing.


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: dmmidmi on October 15, 2014, 09:20:19 AM


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 15, 2014, 09:28:27 AM

Not as much as Colorado though.


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: Free Bird on October 15, 2014, 10:00:54 AM


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: Devils30 on October 15, 2014, 10:01:58 AM
Let's be fair, the GOP is ahead in this race. But 1-2 points can change in 20 days.


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: Mehmentum on October 15, 2014, 10:03:44 AM
Let's be fair, the GOP is ahead in this race. But 1-2 points can change in 20 days.


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: dmmidmi on October 15, 2014, 10:12:15 AM

Both piss me off.


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: DrScholl on October 15, 2014, 10:16:11 AM
Ernst was up six in the last Qunnipiac poll, so this demonstrates a collapse in her numbers. Braley is closing hard and at this point, that's better news for him than it is for Ernst. It's interesting that no blue avatars are mentioning the fact that Ernst was leading by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 15, 2014, 10:21:56 AM
Braley has the momentum.


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: Recalcuate on October 15, 2014, 11:06:25 AM
Ernst was up six in the last Qunnipiac poll, so this demonstrates a collapse in her numbers. Braley is closing hard and at this point, that's better news for him than it is for Ernst. It's interesting that no blue avatars are mentioning the fact that Ernst was leading by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.

Huh? The +6 result was likely overstated. The actual state of this race seems consistent. Ernst with a very slight lead. If anything, the poll results have been relatively static over the past few weeks.


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: Maxwell on October 15, 2014, 11:33:10 AM
Let's be fair, the GOP is ahead in this race. But 1-2 points can change in 20 days.


Sure, I totally agree with that. Braley could turn it all around and win. 1-2 points is a statistical tie.


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: Tender Branson on October 15, 2014, 12:26:51 PM
Looks like Suffolk/USAToday will release a new IA poll as well in 30 minutes.


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: Mr. Reactionary on October 15, 2014, 03:07:53 PM


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: Mr. Reactionary on October 15, 2014, 03:17:58 PM
Ernst was up six in the last Qunnipiac poll, so this demonstrates a collapse in her numbers. Braley is closing hard and at this point, that's better news for him than it is for Ernst. It's interesting that no blue avatars are mentioning the fact that Ernst was leading by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.

Or perhaps this is just an incorrect poll, since it doesn't line up with anything else we've seen. Ernst is a horrible candidate and Republicans have pretty much admitted that they are not that optimistic about picking up the seat, that was stated in an article the other day.

Cough ...


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: DrScholl on October 15, 2014, 03:45:07 PM
Ernst was up six in the last Qunnipiac poll, so this demonstrates a collapse in her numbers. Braley is closing hard and at this point, that's better news for him than it is for Ernst. It's interesting that no blue avatars are mentioning the fact that Ernst was leading by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.

Or perhaps this is just an incorrect poll, since it doesn't line up with anything else we've seen. Ernst is a horrible candidate and Republicans have pretty much admitted that they are not that optimistic about picking up the seat, that was stated in an article the other day.

Cough ...

Go get yourself some water. Either their previous poll was off (which I think it was) or Ernst has collapsed, either way, these numbers are not as good for her as the previous poll.


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: The Other Castro on October 15, 2014, 05:32:10 PM
Ernst was up six in the last Qunnipiac poll, so this demonstrates a collapse in her numbers. Braley is closing hard and at this point, that's better news for him than it is for Ernst. It's interesting that no blue avatars are mentioning the fact that Ernst was leading by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.

Or perhaps this is just an incorrect poll, since it doesn't line up with anything else we've seen. Ernst is a horrible candidate and Republicans have pretty much admitted that they are not that optimistic about picking up the seat, that was stated in an article the other day.

Cough ...

Go get yourself some water. Either their previous poll was off (which I think it was) or Ernst has collapsed, either way, these numbers are not as good for her as the previous poll.

Or......
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean)


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: KCDem on October 15, 2014, 07:49:38 PM
Junk poll!


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: Eraserhead on October 15, 2014, 08:10:24 PM

Clearly. Getting very tempted to flip this one on my map but I'll hold off for now.


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 15, 2014, 09:28:55 PM

The good news for Colorado, is that we have a good chance even if we're trailing in the polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/co/colorado_senate_buck_vs_bennet-1106.html


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 15, 2014, 09:31:59 PM
GUYS! YOU EVER HEAR OF THAT TIME WHEN KEN BUCK LED IN POLLS IN 2010 BUT STILL LOST?


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: KCDem on October 15, 2014, 09:42:54 PM
GUYS! YOU EVER HEAR OF THAT TIME WHEN KEN BUCK LED IN POLLS IN 2010 BUT STILL LOST?

GUYS! REMEMBER WHEN SANTORUM AND SARKOZY WERE GOING TO BE REELECTED?


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: IceSpear on October 15, 2014, 09:46:47 PM
GUYS! YOU EVER HEAR OF THAT TIME WHEN KEN BUCK LED IN POLLS IN 2010 BUT STILL LOST?

No, can you elaborate?


Title: Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 15, 2014, 09:58:53 PM
GUYS! YOU EVER HEAR OF THAT TIME WHEN KEN BUCK LED IN POLLS IN 2010 BUT STILL LOST?

GUYS! REMEMBER WHEN SANTORUM AND SARKOZY WERE GOING TO BE REELECTED?

No? What kind of moron would predict that?