Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on October 15, 2014, 06:40:03 am



Title: GA-SUSA: Anyone's game
Post by: Tender Branson on October 15, 2014, 06:40:03 am
46-46 Deal/Carter

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Other Poll Results:

-For School Superintendent, Democrat Valarie Wilson has today caught Republican Richard Woods, 46% Wilson, 46% Woods.

-For Attorney General, Democrat Greg Hecht continues to make inroads against Republican Sam Olens, and today trails Olens by just 3 points, 46% to 43%.

-For Lieutenant Governor of Georgia, Republican Casey Cagle today is 7 points ahead of Democrat Connie Stokes, 49% to 42%. -Cagle has never trailed.

-For Secretary of State, Republican Brian Kemp today leads Democrat Doreen Carter 48% to 41%. Kemp has never trailed.

http://www.11alive.com/story/news/politics/2014/10/15/exclusive-poll-nunn-leads-senate-race-by-3/17239215/


Title: Re: GA-SUSA: Anyone's game
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Griff on October 15, 2014, 06:50:26 am
http://youtu.be/avcS0aYJ2a8?t=15s

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Title: Re: GA-SUSA: Anyone's game
Post by: olowakandi on October 15, 2014, 06:56:41 am
Good news.


Title: Re: GA-SUSA: Anyone's game
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Griff on October 15, 2014, 09:03:54 am
Here are the crosstabs. (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=196fcc85-d1bc-4da9-b4be-4344a384d33d&c=26)

Crosstabs by gender: 51/49 female. Should be 55/45 female. Net effect is 1 point in under/over-representation for Democratic and Republican groups, respectively. Poll skewed in favor of Perdue in this regard.

Crosstabs by race: 61% white, 27% black, 7% latino, 5% asian. Should be more like 63% white, 28% black, 8% latino, 1% asian. Whites and Asians lean more Republican; Blacks and Latinos lean more Democratic. Net effect is 2.5 points in terms of under/over-representation for Democratic & Republican groups, respectively. Poll skewed in favor of Perdue in this regard.

Crosstabs by region: I've never known what exactly defines the SUSA poll regions. They have three: "Northwest", "Atlanta", and "South and East", each of which comprise about 1/3 of their polling sizes. Any definition of "Northwest", however, shouldn't be close to being competitive, but this poll has it 48/40 Deal and 48/42 Perdue. Based on past SUSA polls, it would seem that the movement toward Dems in these polls is predominantly coming from here - they're actually polling better in the northern part of the state outside of Atlanta than in the southern part, which seems strange. Still, I don't know what their exact boundaries are and so I can't be sure about any skewing here.

All in all, I don't think this poll has a Democratic bias - unless those regions are skewed more than I can tell - and may even be slightly favorable as a whole to the Republicans.


Title: Re: GA-SUSA: Anyone's game
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on October 15, 2014, 03:43:36 pm
Someday Dems are going to take over Georgia. It might not be this day yet, but it's not that far.


Title: Re: GA-SUSA: Anyone's game
Post by: New_Conservative on October 15, 2014, 05:47:02 pm
Embarrassing


Title: Re: GA-SUSA: Anyone's game
Post by: Eraserhead on October 15, 2014, 10:13:27 pm
So who performs better on election day, Nunn or Carter?


Title: Re: GA-SUSA: Anyone's game
Post by: Rockefeller GOP on October 15, 2014, 10:18:34 pm
Someday Dems are going to take over Georgia. It might not be this day yet, but it's not that far.

And then Georgia will be thought of as a multicultural metropolis and not a collection of Southern hicks.  Can't wait.


Title: Re: GA-SUSA: Anyone's game
Post by: IceSpear on October 15, 2014, 10:28:02 pm
How is Deal doing better than Perdue? You'd think blatant corruption would weigh more heavily on the minds of voters than outsourcing comments, unless you're in New York.


Title: Re: GA-SUSA: Anyone's game
Post by: Maxwell on October 15, 2014, 10:31:55 pm
How is Deal doing better than Perdue? You'd think blatant corruption would weigh more heavily on the minds of voters than outsourcing comments, unless you're in New York.

In a way, I think outsourcing can be seen in a campaign sense a sort of racebaiting, which has always been more effective than charges of corruption.