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Title: GA-SUSA: Anyone's game Post by: Tender Branson on October 15, 2014, 06:40:03 AM 46-46 Deal/Carter
Quote Other Poll Results: -For School Superintendent, Democrat Valarie Wilson has today caught Republican Richard Woods, 46% Wilson, 46% Woods. -For Attorney General, Democrat Greg Hecht continues to make inroads against Republican Sam Olens, and today trails Olens by just 3 points, 46% to 43%. -For Lieutenant Governor of Georgia, Republican Casey Cagle today is 7 points ahead of Democrat Connie Stokes, 49% to 42%. -Cagle has never trailed. -For Secretary of State, Republican Brian Kemp today leads Democrat Doreen Carter 48% to 41%. Kemp has never trailed. http://www.11alive.com/story/news/politics/2014/10/15/exclusive-poll-nunn-leads-senate-race-by-3/17239215/ Title: Re: GA-SUSA: Anyone's game Post by: Adam Griffin on October 15, 2014, 06:50:26 AM Title: Re: GA-SUSA: Anyone's game Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 15, 2014, 06:56:41 AM Good news.
Title: Re: GA-SUSA: Anyone's game Post by: Adam Griffin on October 15, 2014, 09:03:54 AM Here are the crosstabs. (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=196fcc85-d1bc-4da9-b4be-4344a384d33d&c=26) Crosstabs by gender: 51/49 female. Should be 55/45 female. Net effect is 1 point in under/over-representation for Democratic and Republican groups, respectively. Poll skewed in favor of Perdue in this regard. Crosstabs by race: 61% white, 27% black, 7% latino, 5% asian. Should be more like 63% white, 28% black, 8% latino, 1% asian. Whites and Asians lean more Republican; Blacks and Latinos lean more Democratic. Net effect is 2.5 points in terms of under/over-representation for Democratic & Republican groups, respectively. Poll skewed in favor of Perdue in this regard. Crosstabs by region: I've never known what exactly defines the SUSA poll regions. They have three: "Northwest", "Atlanta", and "South and East", each of which comprise about 1/3 of their polling sizes. Any definition of "Northwest", however, shouldn't be close to being competitive, but this poll has it 48/40 Deal and 48/42 Perdue. Based on past SUSA polls, it would seem that the movement toward Dems in these polls is predominantly coming from here - they're actually polling better in the northern part of the state outside of Atlanta than in the southern part, which seems strange. Still, I don't know what their exact boundaries are and so I can't be sure about any skewing here. All in all, I don't think this poll has a Democratic bias - unless those regions are skewed more than I can tell - and may even be slightly favorable as a whole to the Republicans. Title: Re: GA-SUSA: Anyone's game Post by: Zanas on October 15, 2014, 03:43:36 PM Someday Dems are going to take over Georgia. It might not be this day yet, but it's not that far.
Title: Re: GA-SUSA: Anyone's game Post by: New_Conservative on October 15, 2014, 05:47:02 PM Embarrassing
Title: Re: GA-SUSA: Anyone's game Post by: Eraserhead on October 15, 2014, 10:13:27 PM So who performs better on election day, Nunn or Carter?
Title: Re: GA-SUSA: Anyone's game Post by: Rockefeller GOP on October 15, 2014, 10:18:34 PM Someday Dems are going to take over Georgia. It might not be this day yet, but it's not that far. And then Georgia will be thought of as a multicultural metropolis and not a collection of Southern hicks. Can't wait. Title: Re: GA-SUSA: Anyone's game Post by: IceSpear on October 15, 2014, 10:28:02 PM How is Deal doing better than Perdue? You'd think blatant corruption would weigh more heavily on the minds of voters than outsourcing comments, unless you're in New York.
Title: Re: GA-SUSA: Anyone's game Post by: Maxwell on October 15, 2014, 10:31:55 PM How is Deal doing better than Perdue? You'd think blatant corruption would weigh more heavily on the minds of voters than outsourcing comments, unless you're in New York. In a way, I think outsourcing can be seen in a campaign sense a sort of racebaiting, which has always been more effective than charges of corruption. |