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Election Archive => 2014 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on October 15, 2014, 01:04:20 pm



Title: IA-Suffolk/USA Today: Ernst+4
Post by: Tender Branson on October 15, 2014, 01:04:20 pm
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http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2014/10/15/paleologos-on-the-poll-iowa/17295115


Title: Re: IA-Suffolk/USA Today: Ernst+4
Post by: Devils30 on October 15, 2014, 01:12:49 pm
The poll is plausible and in line with others but no one should give David Paleologos a single second of air time after he decided that VA, FL, NC were painted red in October 2012 and decided to stop polling them.


Title: Re: IA-Suffolk/USA Today: Ernst+4
Post by: Marston on October 15, 2014, 01:16:52 pm
The Quinnipiac poll released earlier showed Braley up 48-43 with independents. Suffolk shows Ernst winning them 48-32.


Title: Re: IA-Suffolk/USA Today: Ernst+4
Post by: Tender Branson on October 15, 2014, 01:18:43 pm
The poll is plausible and in line with others but no one should give David Paleologos a single second of air time after he decided that VA, FL, NC were painted red in October 2012 and decided to stop polling them.

Yeah, that was hilarious:

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Pollster pulls out of Fla., NC and Va., says Obama can’t win there

Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos, whose polls are aggregated into mainstream averages to show where the presidential race stands in the swing states, said he’s finished polling in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia because President Obama has no shot of winning those states.

“I think in places like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, we’ve already painted those red, we’re not polling any of those states again,” Paleologos said Tuesday night on Fox’s "The O’Reilly Factor." “We’re focusing on the remaining states.”

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/261189-pollster-pulls-out-of-fla-nc-and-va-says-obama-cant-win


Title: Re: IA-Suffolk/USA Today: Ernst+4
Post by: Devils30 on October 15, 2014, 01:21:27 pm
Pretty clear Ernst is ahead by 2% or about but Braley banking the early vote always means just a slight shift can help. Dems really should cut Pryor off and give the money to IA, CO.


Title: Re: IA-Suffolk/USA Today: Ernst+4
Post by: krazen1211 on October 15, 2014, 02:12:01 pm
Dominating.


Title: Re: IA-Suffolk/USA Today: Ernst+4
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 15, 2014, 04:28:13 pm
Thanks, Brucie!


Title: Re: IA-Suffolk/USA Today: Ernst+4
Post by: Maistre on October 15, 2014, 05:03:49 pm
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Ernst will be riding her Harley to Washington D.C. in no time after slaying the bungling bore, Bruce Braley.


Title: Re: IA-Suffolk/USA Today: Ernst+4
Post by: Maxwell on October 15, 2014, 05:05:41 pm
Pretty clear Ernst is ahead by 2% or about but Braley banking the early vote always means just a slight shift can help. Dems really should cut Pryor off and give the money to IA, CO.

Yeah they should probably just cut him off, but alas, they probably won't take your advice.


Title: Re: IA-Suffolk/USA Today: Ernst+4
Post by: IceSpear on October 15, 2014, 09:01:33 pm
The Quinnipiac poll released earlier showed Braley up 48-43 with independents. Suffolk shows Ernst winning them 48-32.

Yeah, I noticed this as well. Pretty strange.


Title: Re: IA-Suffolk/USA Today: Ernst+4
Post by: KCDem on October 15, 2014, 09:02:30 pm
Junk poll!


Title: Re: IA-Suffolk/USA Today: Ernst+4
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 15, 2014, 09:21:01 pm
The Quinnipiac poll released earlier showed Braley up 48-43 with independents. Suffolk shows Ernst winning them 48-32.

Yeah, I noticed this as well. Pretty strange.

You see, this is the difference between 'unskewed' and analysis of polling data. The unskewed nonsense was based on a GOP fantasy that 2004 was the new baseline and in fact normal when it comes to turnout and party ID. Forgetting that party ID has become MORE fluid with a surge in self-identified independents actually being disenchanted Republicans, who still vote that way... but that's a fundamental lack of understanding and you know... not being able to read graphs.

Part of the reason a lot of us were very confident in the lead up to the 2012 election that Obama would win, was because of skewed polling, but skewed in favour of Republican, not Obama. We went through ALL of this... latino underpolling, overly-tight lv screens... and in the end who was right?

So, when we see two polls that provide massive differentials such as this one among Independents or when one as a massive, gaping RV/LV discrepancy.... it's not 'unskewing' in the derisory sense, to say... this doesn't make sense.

I know this isn't limited to this poll alone... but I wanted to vent that.


Title: Re: IA-Suffolk/USA Today: Ernst+4
Post by: Free Bird on October 15, 2014, 09:23:56 pm
Alright. I am convinced. KC is either a bot or a troll or a Republican undercover


Title: Re: IA-Suffolk/USA Today: Ernst+4
Post by: Joshua on October 15, 2014, 09:26:01 pm
Alright. I am convinced. KC is either a bot or a troll or a Republican undercover

KCDem is a robot.


Title: Re: IA-Suffolk/USA Today: Ernst+4
Post by: Maxwell on October 15, 2014, 10:34:55 pm
The independents point is kind of weak - Crosstabs are generally kind of goofy.


Title: Re: IA-Suffolk/USA Today: Ernst+4
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 16, 2014, 06:52:01 am
Junk poll!

Please shut up.


Title: IA: Suffolk University: Ernst Leading in Iowa
Post by: Dave Leip on October 16, 2014, 07:31:25 am
New Poll: Iowa Senator by Suffolk University on 2014-10-14 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=19220141014063)

Summary: D: 43%, R: 47%, I: 2%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10740.php)