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Election Archive => 2014 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: krazen1211 on October 16, 2014, 07:09:48 am



Title: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: krazen1211 on October 16, 2014, 07:09:48 am
Link (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2096)

Gardner 47
Udall 41


Mark Uterus is getting aborted.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Panda Express on October 16, 2014, 07:24:50 am
Link (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2096)

Gardner 47
Udall 41


Mark Uterus is getting aborted.

you can't abort a uterus


Title: CO: Quinnipiac University: Gardner Leading in Colorado
Post by: Dave Leip on October 16, 2014, 07:28:19 am
New Poll: Colorado Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2014-10-13 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=8220141013015)

Summary: D: 41%, R: 47%, I: 8%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2096)


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: JRP1994 on October 16, 2014, 07:53:12 am
Favorability ratings:

Udall: 42/49
Gardner: 47/41


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 16, 2014, 07:53:22 am
(
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Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: JRP1994 on October 16, 2014, 07:54:43 am
Udall's already calling Gardner "Senator"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMx-QqOesIA


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: 5280 on October 16, 2014, 07:59:28 am
Udall's already calling Gardner "Senator"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMx-QqOesIA
lol, that's sad on Udall's part.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: JRP1994 on October 16, 2014, 08:03:52 am
The poll indicates that this is a tied race.

Gardner only leads Udall by 3 among Indies and Udall actually lead Gardner in the 3rd-party-less matchup.

If Democrats and Republicans turn out in roughly equal numbers on election day, then it's a 50-50 race and not a 6-point lead for Gardner.

1) Without Shogun, Gardner leads 49-44

2) Lol unskewing


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Tender Branson on October 16, 2014, 08:04:20 am
The poll indicates that this is a tied race.

Gardner only leads Udall by 3 among Indies (which is well within the MoE) and Udall actually leads Gardner among Indies in the 3rd-party-less matchup.

If Democrats and Republicans turn out in roughly equal numbers on election day (which is not impossible), then it's a 50-50 race and not a 6-point lead for Gardner.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: 5280 on October 16, 2014, 08:04:47 am
A vote for 3rd party is a vote taken away from Udall.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: KCDem on October 16, 2014, 08:21:12 am
Junk poll!


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: 5280 on October 16, 2014, 08:24:36 am
Junk poll!
And how many times have you said this in the polling threads?  It's really getting old dude.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: backtored on October 16, 2014, 10:03:00 am
The poll indicates that this is a tied race.

Gardner only leads Udall by 3 among Indies (which is well within the MoE) and Udall actually leads Gardner among Indies in the 3rd-party-less matchup.

If Democrats and Republicans turn out in roughly equal numbers on election day (which is not impossible), then it's a 50-50 race and not a 6-point lead for Gardner.

No, I'm pretty sure that's s six-point lead for Gardner.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Invisible Obama on October 16, 2014, 10:06:48 am
There is no way that Gardner leads by 6% and is only 3% with independents, those sort of numbers almost never translate into that big of a Republican lead.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: 20PETE20 on October 16, 2014, 10:11:23 am
The poll indicates that this is a tied race.

Gardner only leads Udall by 3 among Indies (which is well within the MoE) and Udall actually leads Gardner among Indies in the 3rd-party-less matchup.

If Democrats and Republicans turn out in roughly equal numbers on election day (which is not impossible), then it's a 50-50 race and not a 6-point lead for Gardner.

No, I'm pretty sure that's s six-point lead for Gardner.

Do you know anything about MoE?


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Recalcuate on October 16, 2014, 10:46:41 am
The poll indicates that this is a tied race.

Gardner only leads Udall by 3 among Indies (which is well within the MoE) and Udall actually leads Gardner among Indies in the 3rd-party-less matchup.

If Democrats and Republicans turn out in roughly equal numbers on election day (which is not impossible), then it's a 50-50 race and not a 6-point lead for Gardner.

No, I'm pretty sure that's s six-point lead for Gardner.

Do you know anything about MoE?

An honest assessment of this race puts this poll well within the margin of error. Gardner has had a consistent lead in all of the polls in the two-to-six point range this month. Unless all of the polls are wrong, it looks like it is Gardner's race to lose at this point.

I'd even surmise to say that Colorado is now ahead of Iowa when it comes to which state is more likely to change control of the Senate in rank order.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Mr. Reactionary on October 16, 2014, 11:11:44 am
Junk poll!
And how many times have you said this in the polling threads?  It's really getting old dude.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: SWE on October 16, 2014, 02:19:25 pm
The National Democratic Party should probably be calling for Udall's execution at this point
This is just ridiculous.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Maxwell on October 16, 2014, 02:21:06 pm
The National Democratic Party should probably be calling for Udall's execution at this point
This is just ridiculous.

lol


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 16, 2014, 02:21:24 pm
The National Democratic Party should probably be calling for Udall's execution at this point
This is just ridiculous.

If this goes as badly as the polls say it is, I think its time for new state party leadership...especially if Crist pulls it off in Florida.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Invisible Obama on October 16, 2014, 02:32:10 pm
If voters are stupid enough to actually elect Gardner, that's not Udall's fault. Sometimes, voters are determined to elect the worst possible candidates to office.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: tpfkaw on October 16, 2014, 02:38:23 pm
Mark Uterus is getting aborted.

It'd be wittier if you said he was getting a hysterectomy. Jeez guy, originality.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 16, 2014, 02:41:05 pm
If voters are stupid enough to actually elect Gardner, that's not Udall's fault. Sometimes, voters are determined to elect the worst possible candidates to office.

No. Dem incumbents with a good record in a lean-D State in a neutral year don't normally lose reelection. Udall screwed up, there's no other way to put it.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Recalcuate on October 16, 2014, 02:44:32 pm
If voters are stupid enough to actually elect Gardner, that's not Udall's fault. Sometimes, voters are determined to elect the worst possible candidates to office.

Yeah, those voters vote for the Democrat that promises them things  and doesn't deliver. How's that unemployment rate in the African-American community under the Obama Presidency? But I digress... It's amazing how your worldview changes based on your ideology.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Invisible Obama on October 16, 2014, 02:58:52 pm
If voters are stupid enough to actually elect Gardner, that's not Udall's fault. Sometimes, voters are determined to elect the worst possible candidates to office.

No. Dem incumbents with a good record in a lean-D State in a neutral year don't normally lose reelection. Udall screwed up, there's no other way to put it.

I still think Udall will win, but if he doesn't, I really don't see what else he could have possibly done to win this race. The difference between candidates is clear here.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Recalcuate on October 16, 2014, 03:05:45 pm
If voters are stupid enough to actually elect Gardner, that's not Udall's fault. Sometimes, voters are determined to elect the worst possible candidates to office.

No. Dem incumbents with a good record in a lean-D State in a neutral year don't normally lose reelection. Udall screwed up, there's no other way to put it.

I still think Udall will win, but if he doesn't, I really don't see what else he could have possibly done to win this race. The difference between candidates is clear here.

It's the six-year itch at play. Most of these Democrat Senators came in with the "historic" Obama victory in 2008. As with most two-term Presidents, that loving feeling is gone. It doesn't shock me that the marginal winners with D next to their names from the '08 class are: 1) vulnerable and 2) likely to be defeated by their Republican opponents. It's politics 101 at the end of the day.  It's how George W. Bush lost the House in 2006.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon on October 16, 2014, 03:07:06 pm
If voters are stupid enough to actually elect Gardner, that's not Udall's fault. Sometimes, voters are determined to elect the worst possible candidates to office.

No. Dem incumbents with a good record in a lean-D State in a neutral year don't normally lose reelection. Udall screwed up, there's no other way to put it.

I still think Udall will win, but if he doesn't, I really don't see what else he could have possibly done to win this race.
Campaign on more than one issue. If he really wanted to win this, he should have both bragged about his overall record in the senate and attacked Gardner on multiple issues. Instead, he assumed 'Gardner = Buck' (which is wrong on so many levels) and simply spent the last several months saying things along the lines of "I support Abortion, Gardner doesn't" over and over again, hoping it would work.



Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Recalcuate on October 16, 2014, 03:09:48 pm
If voters are stupid enough to actually elect Gardner, that's not Udall's fault. Sometimes, voters are determined to elect the worst possible candidates to office.

No. Dem incumbents with a good record in a lean-D State in a neutral year don't normally lose reelection. Udall screwed up, there's no other way to put it.

I still think Udall will win, but if he doesn't, I really don't see what else he could have possibly done to win this race. The difference between candidates is clear here.

It's the six-year itch at play. Most of these Democrat Senators came in with the "historic" Obama victory in 2008. As with most two-term Presidents, that loving feeling is gone. It doesn't shock me that the marginal winners with D next to their names from the '08 class are: 1) vulnerable and 2) likely to be defeated by their Republican opponents. It's politics 101 at the end of the day.  It's how George W. Bush lost the House in 2006.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Mehmentum on October 16, 2014, 03:14:16 pm
If voters are stupid enough to actually elect Gardner, that's not Udall's fault. Sometimes, voters are determined to elect the worst possible candidates to office.

No. Dem incumbents with a good record in a lean-D State in a neutral year don't normally lose reelection. Udall screwed up, there's no other way to put it.

I still think Udall will win, but if he doesn't, I really don't see what else he could have possibly done to win this race. The difference between candidates is clear here.
If that's the attitude the Democratic party is going to take, then we will keep making the same mistakes over and over.  We need to learn from failure, not pretend that nothing is wrong to try to save face. 


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Brittain33 on October 16, 2014, 03:15:07 pm
If voters are stupid enough to actually elect Gardner, that's not Udall's fault. Sometimes, voters are determined to elect the worst possible candidates to office.

No. Dem incumbents with a good record in a lean-D State in a neutral year don't normally lose reelection. Udall screwed up, there's no other way to put it.

Colorado has only very recently become lean Dem, and it's swung back and forth before. This is the kind of seat Dems should expect to lose in a decent Republican year which is unfortunately what 2014 is starting to look like.

Dem incumbents in more diverse swing states (VA, NC, even LA all things considered as a non-swing state) are holding up much better than Dems with much less diverse electorates (CO, IA) and for that reason I'm seeing Scott Brown as a surprise winner now.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Chance92 on October 16, 2014, 03:23:39 pm
This is physically painful. I'm just six hours north of these people.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Mehmentum on October 16, 2014, 03:25:56 pm
If voters are stupid enough to actually elect Gardner, that's not Udall's fault. Sometimes, voters are determined to elect the worst possible candidates to office.

No. Dem incumbents with a good record in a lean-D State in a neutral year don't normally lose reelection. Udall screwed up, there's no other way to put it.

Colorado has only very recently become lean Dem, and it's swung back and forth before. This is the kind of seat Dems should expect to lose in a decent Republican year which is unfortunately what 2014 is starting to look like.

Dem incumbents in more diverse swing states (VA, NC, even LA all things considered as a non-swing state) are holding up much better than Dems with much less diverse electorates (CO, IA) and for that reason I'm seeing Scott Brown as a surprise winner now.
This isn't a Republican year.  There are 5 senate races in 2012 swing states (NH, VA, NC, CO, and IA).  Democrats are on track to win 3 and loose 2 of those.  The reason why the Democrats are going to loose big is because they have a lot of seats in heavily republican states (MT, WV, SD, AK, LA, and AR).  In a neutral year, you'd expect Democrats to loose those kinds of races.  Similarly, you don't see the Republicans competing well in any of the lean Democrat states (MI, OR, NM, or MN)


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 16, 2014, 04:04:32 pm
Just start calling him Mark U-Haul because he's doing some major packing soon!


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Recalcuate on October 16, 2014, 04:31:39 pm
If voters are stupid enough to actually elect Gardner, that's not Udall's fault. Sometimes, voters are determined to elect the worst possible candidates to office.

No. Dem incumbents with a good record in a lean-D State in a neutral year don't normally lose reelection. Udall screwed up, there's no other way to put it.

Colorado has only very recently become lean Dem, and it's swung back and forth before. This is the kind of seat Dems should expect to lose in a decent Republican year which is unfortunately what 2014 is starting to look like.

Dem incumbents in more diverse swing states (VA, NC, even LA all things considered as a non-swing state) are holding up much better than Dems with much less diverse electorates (CO, IA) and for that reason I'm seeing Scott Brown as a surprise winner now.
This isn't a Republican year.  There are 5 senate races in 2012 swing states (NH, VA, NC, CO, and IA).  Democrats are on track to win 3 and loose 2 of those.  The reason why the Democrats are going to loose big is because they have a lot of seats in heavily republican states (MT, WV, SD, AK, LA, and AR).  In a neutral year, you'd expect Democrats to loose those kinds of races.  Similarly, you don't see the Republicans competing well in any of the lean Democrat states (MI, OR, NM, or MN)

Have you seen the polls? Of course it's a Republican year. Just like 2006 was a Democrat year.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: krazen1211 on October 16, 2014, 04:40:36 pm
It's important to note that this poll is sorely lacking in the number of whites. Unskewing the poll to correct this would naturally further enhance Gardner's lead.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Mehmentum on October 16, 2014, 04:45:15 pm
If voters are stupid enough to actually elect Gardner, that's not Udall's fault. Sometimes, voters are determined to elect the worst possible candidates to office.

No. Dem incumbents with a good record in a lean-D State in a neutral year don't normally lose reelection. Udall screwed up, there's no other way to put it.

Colorado has only very recently become lean Dem, and it's swung back and forth before. This is the kind of seat Dems should expect to lose in a decent Republican year which is unfortunately what 2014 is starting to look like.

Dem incumbents in more diverse swing states (VA, NC, even LA all things considered as a non-swing state) are holding up much better than Dems with much less diverse electorates (CO, IA) and for that reason I'm seeing Scott Brown as a surprise winner now.
This isn't a Republican year.  There are 5 senate races in 2012 swing states (NH, VA, NC, CO, and IA).  Democrats are on track to win 3 and loose 2 of those.  The reason why the Democrats are going to loose big is because they have a lot of seats in heavily republican states (MT, WV, SD, AK, LA, and AR).  In a neutral year, you'd expect Democrats to loose those kinds of races.  Similarly, you don't see the Republicans competing well in any of the lean Democrat states (MI, OR, NM, or MN)

Have you seen the polls? Of course it's a Republican year. Just like 2006 was a Democrat year.
Of course I've seen the polls.  Did you see my post?  Democrats losing races in conservative states should not be surprising. 


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: IceSpear on October 16, 2014, 05:53:39 pm
Udall ran a really sh**tty campaign. Even the polls underestimating Dems and mail in voting might not save him at this point.

Though it's not like Colorado was ever a reliable Dem state, it's starting to look more and more like it's not that Hillary is particularly weak there, but that Obama was particularly strong there.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Recalcuate on October 16, 2014, 08:14:57 pm
If voters are stupid enough to actually elect Gardner, that's not Udall's fault. Sometimes, voters are determined to elect the worst possible candidates to office.

No. Dem incumbents with a good record in a lean-D State in a neutral year don't normally lose reelection. Udall screwed up, there's no other way to put it.

Colorado has only very recently become lean Dem, and it's swung back and forth before. This is the kind of seat Dems should expect to lose in a decent Republican year which is unfortunately what 2014 is starting to look like.

Dem incumbents in more diverse swing states (VA, NC, even LA all things considered as a non-swing state) are holding up much better than Dems with much less diverse electorates (CO, IA) and for that reason I'm seeing Scott Brown as a surprise winner now.
This isn't a Republican year.  There are 5 senate races in 2012 swing states (NH, VA, NC, CO, and IA).  Democrats are on track to win 3 and loose 2 of those.  The reason why the Democrats are going to loose big is because they have a lot of seats in heavily republican states (MT, WV, SD, AK, LA, and AR).  In a neutral year, you'd expect Democrats to loose those kinds of races.  Similarly, you don't see the Republicans competing well in any of the lean Democrat states (MI, OR, NM, or MN)

Have you seen the polls? Of course it's a Republican year. Just like 2006 was a Democrat year.
Of course I've seen the polls.  Did you see my post?  Democrats losing races in conservative states should not be surprising. 

Out of the 10 tossup states, the Republicans have the lead in seven. This is your natural corrective action in a sixth year of a Presidency. These Senators that were elected in 2008 no longer have the POTUS-elect's coattails/good feelings that got them elected and the electorate is tired of the incumbent.

It doesn't matter what the party affiliation of the President is. The six-year-itch is alive and well.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: Free Bird on October 16, 2014, 09:10:37 pm
If voters are stupid enough to actually elect Gardner, that's not Udall's fault. Sometimes, voters are determined to elect the worst possible candidates to office.

No. Dem incumbents with a good record in a lean-D State in a neutral year don't normally lose reelection. Udall screwed up, there's no other way to put it.

Colorado has only very recently become lean Dem, and it's swung back and forth before. This is the kind of seat Dems should expect to lose in a decent Republican year which is unfortunately what 2014 is starting to look like.

Dem incumbents in more diverse swing states (VA, NC, even LA all things considered as a non-swing state) are holding up much better than Dems with much less diverse electorates (CO, IA) and for that reason I'm seeing Scott Brown as a surprise winner now.
This isn't a Republican year.  There are 5 senate races in 2012 swing states (NH, VA, NC, CO, and IA).  Democrats are on track to win 3 and loose 2 of those.  The reason why the Democrats are going to loose big is because they have a lot of seats in heavily republican states (MT, WV, SD, AK, LA, and AR).  In a neutral year, you'd expect Democrats to loose those kinds of races.  Similarly, you don't see the Republicans competing well in any of the lean Democrat states (MI, OR, NM, or MN)

Have you seen the polls? Of course it's a Republican year. Just like 2006 was a Democrat year.


Title: Re: CO-Sen, Quinnipiac: Gardner in the lead
Post by: KCDem on October 16, 2014, 09:18:20 pm
Junk poll!