Talk Elections

52-44 McConnell/Grimes

Link later.

Was this done before or after the DSCC pullout?

In the last 2 days.

Congratulations to Senate Majority Leader McConnell.

Reportedly, the McConnell campaign says they're on track to get 53%.

Is it all due to #Obamagate?

I'd say so.

(sigh) Guess its time to give up on Kentucky.

Seems like the McConnell lead is a little overstated than the other polls, but it may explain why the DSCC pulled their money out of this race.

For what it's worth, it is Rasmussen.

And it does contradict the past 3 polls that show Grimes ahead.

I see only two recent polls to show Grimes ahead, one of which was an internal. On the other hand, Fox and YouGov have both shown McConnell with comparable leads, which suggests that either SUSA was an outlier or that this race needs better pollsters.

I don't trust a word Fox says. YouGov is an Internet poll, so I don't know how accurate it is.

What about the SUSA poll that had Grimes ahead?

I mentioned the SUSA poll, saying that it is either an outlier, or that better polls than Rasmussen, Fox News, and YouGov are needed to check SUSA's work. Either is a fair assessment, but to claim based on one poll that Grimes has a lead is shortsighted.

SUSA never outlies in the Democrats' favor.

There was also the Rollings poll that had Grimes up by 4. I never saw a word about it here.

O (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7d873f82-2844-46e6-9a04-6b9d983941c9)K (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d2f4c14c-2374-4e21-a4d5-9964283f3b86) then (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0b63ff1a-61f7-4ec0-bd56-38d157768f62)

Good riddance. Grimes has been an embarrassment.

>Ras

Sadly, this race is over. Perhaps not this over, but it's over.

Even if it is Rassy, this can't be too far from what it'll be like on election day. Grimes crashed her own campaign and deserves to lose for it. Unbelievable how she blew a chance at a seat that never should have been competitive in the first place.

Wait, are you saying the Democrat should've won in a landslide in Kentucky?

No no, quite the opposite. I'm saying Kentucky is usually very safe for the Republicans, even if it is Mitch McConnell running. The fact that she had a chance to win the seat was pretty surprising.

Ah, you kind of worded it confusingly. She started her campaign off okay, but it seems to have gone off the rails.

At the same time, that politico article comparing her to Todd Akin is one of the dumbest articles I've read all year.

Politico is awful.

Follow the money, people. Turtle is coming back for another term.

Nice try Rassy.

There's a very good reason that so-called poll was ignored. Per the DailyKos, it was a fabrication. (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/10/16/1336877/-Kentucky-Grimes-47-McConnell-43-The-Debate-put-her-on-top#)

Not really, considering McConnell's history. 2002 aside, McConnell never wins by landslide margins and is used to having competitive races - in fact his experience winning previous tough races probably helped him win this one. McConnell's win margins for all his senate races are:

1984: 0.4%
1990: 4.4%
1996: 12.6%
2002: 29.4%
2008: 6.0%

Why was he so strong in '02?

No clue, actually. Perhaps Bush's high approval ratings at the time rubbed off on him or something.

RIP less terrible candidate.

For comparison, here is Harry Reid's winning margins

1986: 4.5%
1992: 10.8%
1998: 0.1%
2004: 25.9%
2010: 5.7%

They truly are 2 sides of the same coin

Because the Democrats in 2002 didn't even bother to recruit a top-tier candidate.

The Democrats ran Lois Combs Weinberg, who was a complete unknown, but I voted for her.

2002 was also the one unequivocally good Republican year he ran in since Kentucky shifted so heavily to the Rs. At least in 1996, Clinton could keep it competitive. Bruce Lunsford wasn't a better candidate than Lois Combs Weinberg.

Meh, not a fan of McConnell but he's better than Grimes and any Tea Party candidate that probably went against him in the primary.

So eh good news I guess

Also, the Democrats openly refused to recruit strong candidates in 2002 because 9/11 scared them. I am not making this up. I remember Rush Limbaugh gloating about it.

This poll is a joke.

McConell will win this, but not by 8 points.

They don't seem to have abided by that in at least 3 races: In AR (this was when Pryor was first elected to the senate), NH (Where then-gov. Shaheen was the candidate and nearly won), and TN (where Alexander was held to just 54% of the vote in a very republican state).

Indeed. It'll probably be a 2-6% margin.

Whether it's by 2 or 8, McConnell looks pretty set. And that sucks. 2 more years of Mr Turtle as Senate Minority Leader.