Talk Elections

New Poll: New Hampshire Senator by YouGov on 2014-10-15 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=33220141015186)

Summary: D: 48%, R: 45%, I: 5%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.umass.edu/poll/pdfs/20141020_Toplines.pdf)

Note the sample size is 322 for some reason, so this poll is pretty garbage.

These word clouds are pretty hilarious though:

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"Democrat does worse than expected -- must be garbage"

>YouGov, looks about right though.

Brown's ceiling is 45%. Safe D.

LOL, looks like I might have a new sig...

>YouGov, but this margin is in line with other polls.

How?

Yep, this poll pretty much confirms the other polls that have Shaheen leading by three. It must be a junk poll. Shaheen should be leading by 10 solely because she's a Democrat. Democrats are good. Pollsters showing Democrats with a small lead are junk. /sarcasm

In the real world, it's Shaheen's race to lose before this poll was released and Shaheen's race to lose now. The race however, has tightened.

.....

Guys, polls with a sample size of 300 and a margin of error of 7% are not good. I don't care who is leading. Stop embarrassing yourselves by whining about every perceived instance of hackery.

So the Democrats can safely pull all their money out of New Hampshire now since you've declared it "safe?"

Try lean D instead.

Remember how Brown was going to lose by like twenty points according to the Atlas Forum Mentality?

Brown's internals show him down 9 FWIW

You're right on the sample size. However, this just is another data point that confirms a tightening in this race. Again, it's Shaheen's race to lose, but Brown has made it interesting.

I love how the one word some people use to describe Shaheen is 'Obama'.

Also the people who chose to describe Brown as 'better'.

The 5% for 'other' is amusing - considering there isn't any other name on the ballot. It'll be a great night for write-ins in NH.

The good news for Shaheen is that she's holding steady in that 47-49% interval. The race tightening doesn't matter so much when one of the candidates is consistently hoovering around the 50% mark. Brown as tightened the race at the expense of former undecideds -which was to be expected, NH's is elastic and small enough that he can make use of his retail skills- but Shaheen firewall seems to be working and arguably that's all she needs.

Is RCP incorrect, or was the New England College poll showing Brown ahead the recent poll with the largest sample size?

No, but I remember when everyone thought she was going to win by high single digits. Remember when Brownback was supposed to win easily? ;)

Where did you see this at?

So all that third-party money is flowing out of New Hampshire to other states, right? NH is getting abandoned by the Republicans like Michigan? Give me a break.

He didn't. He's about as hooked in with the Brown campaign as I am with Kate Upton's phone number.

Why don't you take your 59-post experience and leave. You know nothing about politics. Go do your algebra homework.

There was a tweet from the NHDP chair that did say that Republican internals had Brown down by 9%, so whether or not you want to believe that, KCDem didn't make that up.

Republicans surely have not pulled out of New Hampshire, in the Providence media market I see more New Hampshire ads than Rhode Island or Massachusetts ads, and they are all for the Brown-Shaheen race.

Sorry, KC Dem, I've moved on to trigonometry. Pre-Calculus is next. Seriously?

We're supposed to believe a "tweet" from a Democrat about how a "Republican internal" has Brown is losing a the race by nine where every pollster that has queried the state in October has Brown down by six or less.

Meanwhile, millions are spent on ads. Come on guys, I've got a bridge to sell you, if you believe that. If this were true, the Republican money would have moved elsewhere, much like it did in Michigan.

Again, this is Shaheen's race to lose at this point. Brown has simply made it interesting.

The Republican money is still in NH because the air isn't saturated and the race is closer than Michigan. The Republicans are running out of ways to take the Senate so they are desperately trying to compete is races that favor the Democrats.

KCDem stop being a turd

Is that why the election models all favor a GOP Senate by a margins from 62 to 93%. Look, this is going to be a coin-flip right until the last polls close. Unlike 2006 or 2010, the close races are not going to break in favor of one party. Democrats and Republicans will split the close states. The problem for Dems is that most of the close states are in purple or light blue states. Most of the red states are moving in the GOP's direction further and further away from 'toss-up' status. I would say Republicans are favored to win the Senate, but it's not a sure thing.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/10/20/republicans-chances-of-winning-the-senate-majority-keep-getting-better/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/10/20/republicans-chances-of-winning-the-senate-majority-keep-getting-better/)

You'd make a great Baghdad Bob, you know that?

538 has the Republicans with a 63-37 chance of taking the Senate.
The New York Times has it at 66-34.
The Washington Post has it at like 93%.

The later two aren't exactly Republican-leaning publications.

It must be that algebra that you claim I am taking, BUT there seems like there's math and what you truly believe in your head.

IF Brown wins (and that's a huge IF), the Republicans will have 54 or 55 Senators in the next Congress. You can bank on that. This is not a must-have state for the Republicans right now.

And I'll say it again. These polls show tightening in the New Hampshire Senate race. It's still Shaheen's race to lose.

KCDem, I don't see how you can attack someone for having fewer posts than you when a majority of your posts are "Junk Poll!" or "Dominating!".