Talk Elections

Link (http://monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/d276ff1e-6ab4-4f44-b749-ed99c1924928.pdf)

I love that Udall is up by ten among those who have already voted, even though the GOP has a 15-point lead in early voting as of yesterday.

Gardner is leading in every poll, yes, but his numbers are still looking suspiciously Buck 2010-esque. Still a very small sliver of hope.

To a certain extent, that doesn't always indicate who is doing better in the early vote, since you don't know how voters are actually voting. The difference could be in independents.

Stick a probe in his uterus.

The crosstabs look pretty reasonable.

As long as its still only 1-3 points for Gardner it's in play considering COs history. Still, I saw nothing wrong at all with PPPs sample.

Margin of error + independents are probably breaking towards Udall pretty heavily + many Democrats have likely sent in ballots that haven't arrived or been processed yet.

Now more like it. Now, the one that has the best close will win.

Didn't Bennet win with sub-40 approvals as well ?

Anyway, still way too early to call this for Gardner. Udall still has a chance.

Gardner is clearly ahead now, you can argue that. The vote by mail and same day registration is a wildcard though. Considering Dems already beat polling numbers before this it adds something more to the uncertainty. Really will not know the truth until 11 pm in two weeks.

New Poll: Colorado Senator by Monmouth University on 2014-10-20 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=8220141020102)

Summary: D: 46%, R: 47%, I: 4%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/d276ff1e-6ab4-4f44-b749-ed99c1924928.pdf)

Yeah, PPP had Bennet at 39/47 going into the election. (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_1101424.pdf)

Indeed, Buck was leading in almost all of the final polls, some of them by 4 points:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Colorado,_2010


I think it's a mistake to write off Udall, especially considering that Colorado now has mail-in voting as opposed to previous years.  

Of course, there's redistricting and voter laws that are the difference between 2010 and 2014, but are there any demographic changes to consider?

Probably a couple points less white and more latino. That's about it. Buck  won whites by 7% and lost by 1.6. I assume Udall can lose whites by 9-10 with demographic change and win but once his deficit gets into the 11-13% range like the PPP poll I don't see it.

Yes, but his net-negatives weren't nearly as high as Udall's is right now. (Bennet was at -7, Udall is at -15). Also, unlike Buck, Gardner has a narrowly positive favorable rating.

No question Udall still has a shot at this.

The sample size for that subsample is very small.   It is 1/4 of the sample, which is probably only around 100 voters.  That gives a margin of error around +/- 10.

The CO senate could be interesting because the districts that the GOP won in the recalls are very Democratic and with even moderate turnout could flip back even in a bad Dem year.