Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2014 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on October 22, 2014, 06:54:19 AM



Title: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: Tender Branson on October 22, 2014, 06:54:19 AM
New Poll: Georgia Senator by Survey USA on 2014-10-20 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=13220141020019)

Summary: D: 46%, R: 44%, I: 4%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7f113593-1781-4605-956e-3bc7d158da2c)


Title: Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 22, 2014, 07:00:28 AM
From the last SurveyUSA poll: Nunn down from a three point lead with 48% to a two point lead with 46%. Perdue power.


Title: Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 22, 2014, 07:35:42 AM
So... what you're saying is Perdue has gone backwards too?


Title: Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 22, 2014, 07:44:18 AM
So... what you're saying is Perdue has gone backwards too?

He's gone from 45% to 44% but has smashed Nunn's lead from 3% to 2%. These are very bad times for Obama's Georgia candidate if this is the "lead" she posts after a "major Perdue gaffe."


Title: Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 22, 2014, 08:01:59 AM
Hopefully, Nunn takes this and gets over 50 percent, to help us close senate out.


Title: Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: Niemeyerite on October 22, 2014, 08:05:14 AM
So... what you're saying is Perdue has gone backwards too?

He's gone from 45% to 44% but has smashed Nunn's lead from 3% to 2%. These are very bad times for Obama's Georgia candidate if this is the "lead" she posts after a "major Perdue gaffe."

People usually call it MoE movement.


Title: Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: Adam Griffin on October 22, 2014, 08:15:07 AM
So... what you're saying is Perdue has gone backwards too?

He's gone from 45% to 44% but has smashed Nunn's lead from 3% to 2%. These are very bad times for Obama's Georgia candidate if this is the "lead" she posts after a "major Perdue gaffe."

()



Title: Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: Miles on October 22, 2014, 08:41:53 AM
...and GA is now pink on the polls map!


Title: Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: Recalcuate on October 22, 2014, 08:44:01 AM
Hopefully, Nunn takes this and gets over 50 percent, to help us close senate out.

Unlikely if the spread is two points. The Libertarian is usually good for 2-3 in Georgia. Four is a tad bit overstated around the fringes of the margins, of course.

Unless there's a change, this thing looks like it's headed to a January 6th runoff.


Title: Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: King on October 22, 2014, 08:44:26 AM
Lot of undecided voters still and the I is not getting 4%.


Title: Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: Bacon King on October 22, 2014, 08:49:49 AM
Adam Griffin, check the crosstabs, Northwest GA is showing sensible results here

also Valerie Wilson is only down by two points in the Superintendent race


Title: Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: Devils30 on October 22, 2014, 09:00:51 AM
Going to a runoff. Still, winning the Election Day vote would be a tremendous accomplishment for Georgia Dems.


Title: Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on October 22, 2014, 09:22:42 AM
Lot of undecided voters still and the I is not getting 4%.

2-4 % is normal for a Libertarian in Georgia races.


Title: Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: Recalcuate on October 22, 2014, 09:27:31 AM
Lot of undecided voters still and the I is not getting 4%.

2-4 % is normal for a Libertarian in Georgia races.

In the past 20 years  of Senate races, the Libertarian hasn't cleared 4%. Highest was mid-3s. Typically, the vote settles somewhere in the 2-3% range.

Again, around the fringes of the MOE here, but the Libertarian right now sends this to a runoff.


Title: Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: rob in cal on October 22, 2014, 11:19:26 AM
In crosstabs. 10% say they've already voted, and Perdue has a lead there, and Libertarian only gets 1% of the already voted.  Love the 3% of already voted who are undecided.


Title: Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: Mehmentum on October 22, 2014, 11:24:09 AM
In crosstabs. 10% say they've already voted, and Perdue has a lead there, and Libertarian only gets 1% of the already voted.  Love the 3% of already voted who are undecided.
Crosstabs are useless in SUSA polls.


Title: Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: The Other Castro on October 22, 2014, 03:03:34 PM
In crosstabs. 10% say they've already voted, and Perdue has a lead there, and Libertarian only gets 1% of the already voted.  Love the 3% of already voted who are undecided.

These are the people that decide our elections....God help us


Title: Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: Smash255 on October 22, 2014, 04:17:54 PM
In crosstabs. 10% say they've already voted, and Perdue has a lead there, and Libertarian only gets 1% of the already voted.  Love the 3% of already voted who are undecided.

These are the people that decide our elections....God help us

Keep in mind, the MOE for the subset of those that already voted is extremely high.  Also with it being 3% of that subset it literally comes out to 2 or 3 people who were polled that said that.


Title: Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: Keystone Phil on October 22, 2014, 04:26:37 PM
Still, winning the Election Day vote would be a tremendous accomplishment for Georgia Dems.

I'll volunteer to shine their silver medal, if you'd like!


Title: Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: Recalcuate on October 22, 2014, 04:42:35 PM
In crosstabs. 10% say they've already voted, and Perdue has a lead there, and Libertarian only gets 1% of the already voted.  Love the 3% of already voted who are undecided.

These are the people that decide our elections....God help us

Keep in mind, the MOE for the subset of those that already voted is extremely high.  Also with it being 3% of that subset it literally comes out to 2 or 3 people who were polled that said that.

And those two or three people knew exactly what they were doing. They were telling SUSA to shove it where the sun don't shine.


Title: Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: Eraserhead on October 22, 2014, 11:06:27 PM
Damn, Nunn is probably going to win a plurality of votes on election only to lose the silly runoff.


Title: Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 23, 2014, 12:23:06 AM
So... what you're saying is Perdue has gone backwards too?

He's gone from 45% to 44% but has smashed Nunn's lead from 3% to 2%. These are very bad times for Obama's Georgia candidate if this is the "lead" she posts after a "major Perdue gaffe."

LOL, maybe Nunn was at 47.6% and now at 46.4% while Perdue went from 45.4% to 43.6%.


Title: Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead
Post by: Adam Griffin on October 23, 2014, 06:29:49 AM
Adam Griffin, check the crosstabs, Northwest GA is showing sensible results here

also Valerie Wilson is only down by two points in the Superintendent race

From a 6-8 point lead for Perdue/Deal, back to low-20s; that looks about right. Inversely, South Georgia's 10-point deficit for Carter and Nunn have shifted back to being what they should have been, which cancelled each other out. Each candidate lost a tiny bit of support in the metro in this new poll, which explains the drop for all candidates.

Crosstabs are useless in SUSA polls.

Apparently so.