Talk Elections

Gardner leads 46-39. (http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/colorado-senate-race-suffolk-university-oct-22?utm_content=buffer9d867&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer)

Ouch

All Hail Sen. Gardner!

Yup, this one seems to be going the way of Arkansas. Democrats options to hold the Senate are rapidly narrowing. Assuming the GOP gets those two (along with their already solid pickups in MT/WV), Dems will have to win 3/4 of AK/IA/LA/SD, unless we can pick off one or more of KY/GA/KS. Luckily we have a chance in all three of those, but it's not looking good.

Junk poll!

they're not polling hispanics obvi.

Jesus F**king Christ. Udall must really have been braindead the whole campaign, that's the only way to explain this.

Another f'ing poll that chooses to not poll hispanics. What the hell is wrong with pollsters? It's going to be 2010 all over again.

No, Udall is winning 80% of Hispanics in this poll. The problem is that he's losing whites two to one.

Hispanics were 13% of the sample.

Hispanics were 13%, yet there is no way in hell they are going to be less than 23% of the electorate.

They were 12% of the electorate in 2010...

Exit polls in 2012 showed Hispanics as 14% of the electorate in Colorado. If you think it's going to be 23%, then I don't know what you're smoking on, but it's time to go to rehab, because it's messing with your head.

This year it'll probably be 13%, so this poll looks good.

But Bennett won, so Safe D

i mean, they DID forgot to calculate that it will be 55% hispanic, 4% Whites, and 89% dead people, so Safe D.

Cory the Courageous shall deliver a blistering thrashing to Mark "Brain Dead" Uterus!

lol, nice.

This LV screen seems way too tight for a VBM state.

Gardner is leading in the RCP average by 4.4, Obama and Bennet beat that average by 4.5. Seriously Gardner would win by 2% or so if held today. It's time that pollsters press undecideds a little more.

Yeah, the LV screen is a bit ridiculous. Still doesn't make up for a seven point deficit though.

FiveThirtyEight shows Suffolk as a B pollster with a D+1.1% bias.

RIP Udall.

Abort him.

Love these polls coming out of Colorado, but I don't really buy them. I am not really confident Gardner wins this race.

Gardner is not leading by 1 or 2 like Buck, he's leading by 7. Udall has to make a serious comeback is he wants to win.

S**t.

RIP Gardner

I think Gardner has a better chance of winning than Sullivan at this point.

If Gardner wins 40% of the vote in Denver/Boulder counties,  I will shove a thanksgiving turkey up my butt.

I hope CO 2014 is the NV of 2010, but it probably isn't :(

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Just for clarification, is that what the poll said? ???

Pretty sure boshembechle is satirizing Dr. Scholl and KCDem rather than being serious.

rip in peace

Terrible news. Udall was a fine Senator.

If you look at the internals of the poll has Udall over Gardner 47%-40% in Denver/Boulder and Gardner over Udall 53%-34% in Jefferson/Arapahoe counties.  Both seem implausible as does Gardner's large lead among young voters.  The problem with that reasoning though is that you have a high margin of error on these smaller samples and the statistical power of the polling is in the top-line numbers.

Just compare some of these numbers to the PPP poll, it's kind of strange.

PPP: Gardner vs. Udall 18-29: Udall leads 59% to 22%
Suffolk:  Gardner vs. Udall 18-35: : Gardner leads 42% to 31%

That must be partly the weirdness of small samples, but I have my doubts about this Suffolk poll.

Looks like only one Mark will be re-elected this year.

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So, Vox Populi, I was thinking this for your picture of Zooey Dechanel:

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It is appropriate considering the absolute SHOCK you must be feeling over the triumph of Cory the Courageous (good one!).

As vindicating as the poll numbers may be, you should probably save the gloating for after the election, lest you produce Irony Mine material.

Udall is going to get spanked nice and hard by this young whippersnapper.

Don't rush to name all of Mark U-Haul's accomplishments, guys!

Which one? Udall, Pryor, and Begich are all in dire positions.

Sanford? :P

Warner....

A bet is a bet. (Even though he lacked the balls to agree to my bet, I'll go ahead anyways and change my avatar, sig, call myself retarded etc.)

Udall is done.


Say hello to Senator Gardner!

Race is probably tilt Gardner now.

This poll is garbage.

Same but I'm cautiously optimistic that the voters of Colorado will choose to abort Mark Udall.

You know for folks who think that legalized abortion is equivalent to the Holocaust, you guys sure like to joke about aborting people.

I doubt Udall will only get 39% of the vote, even if he loses. I'm not writing him off yet.

Oh, he'll get more than 39% of the vote, but I wouldn't be shocked if he lost by seven points.

LOL, no one is saying that. Gardner is definitely favored, since he has a 4 point RCP lead, which is greater than the 3.5 point error in 2010.

Likely an outlier.

Suffolk is not the best pollster after all, the once even had Corzine winning by 10 or something against Christie (in their final poll).

I put more weighting into SurveyUSA's and PPP's poll, which show a much closer race.

Udall COULD still win, but I don't think he'll survive. I'm pro-choice and support over the counter birth control and even I think Udall has veered too far to the left on those issues.

Udall is finished guys.  He can't be in the low to mid 40's this late.  That's a nightmare for an incumbent.  Gardner is liked by voters there too despite the barrage of negative ads thrown at him.  I think 48 positive and 44 negative.  Buck was opposite of that.  Debates have been really bad for Udall also. 

But but but.....
Mah Buck!