Talk Elections

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2014-10-21 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=19220141021015)

Summary: D: 46%, R: 48%, I: 3%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2100)

A steady lead but one must quietly wonder to himself, "...how will Ken Buck factor into this one?"

Thanks to Bruce Braley for pissing away what was by all accounts a very winnable race.

The Iowa firewall is holding!

Braley shall not pass!

Braley wins on election day.

Any poll that shows a Republican lead is obviously wrong. Any poll that shows a Democrat with a slight lead is right. Math knows party affiliation. It's not just simple math.

The reality of it is that it is what it is. Ernst has a slight 2-3 point edge right now. That obviously can change before Election Day. Tossup/slight lean R

Ernst has already hired lawyers to challenge the results in several counties. That should tell you something right there.

I think the last Q poll had Ernst up 6 pts. Mirroring the Selzer Poll, this shows the race trending towards Braley.

That it's an election within the MOE and that a candidate is getting prepared if a recount is necessary? Hardly any type of revelation there after the 2000 POTUS election.

I am sure Brailey has his lawyers lined up, too. Shaheen and Brown in NH. Tillis and Hagan in NC. Gardner and Udall in CO... etc.... It'd be irresponsible NOT to have attorneys ready to go at this point.

Advantage Ernst but between early voters and other polls having her only up 1 and PPPs with Braley up 1, just close enough not to call it over.

Yeah, but Ken Buck was leading, too.

OK, you guys made your point and we get it. Now stop.

This one will be so fun to watch. It may either be Republican tears or Democrat rage. And I'm just like Michael Jackson eating popcorn.

#gif

Yep. I think the national environment helps Ernst across the finish line, but Iowa is so utterly bizarre in its politics that nothing would surprise me.

Ernst canceled her interview with the Des Moines Register. Clearly, she's been put in silent mode to keep from saying something stupid that will lose the race for her.

RIP Bailey

This is the best QuinnipiHACK can come up with for Ernst?

Safe Bob Bailey.

You think?  Iowa doesn't exactly have the reliable minority votes whose turnout is often underestimated in the polls (e.g., CO, VA and FL being more Democratic than polls showed).

The last 2 close elections in Iowa where the Dems had a full turnout operation

2008 President  real clear politics underestimated O by 6.2 !
2012 President  real clear politics underestimated O by 3.4

So yes, polls clearly have underestimated Iowa D support since the infrastructure/turnout operation was built in 2008.

Braley actually done well since his stupid comment. The farmer comment clearly hurt in in rural areas, but he still will win. Even in this poll he is winning the early vote by 21.

I am not saying it won't be close, but I see Braley winning by 1-3 %

Whatever Selzer's final poll shows is what my prediction will be. In 2010, their last poll for Senate was spot on and Governor was pretty close. In 2012, they had Obama up 5 while others had it much closer.

Even Selzer missed in 2010, even tough they were closer. Everybody focuses on Colorado, Nevada as D support missed, Iowa is worse. Every election since 2008 pollsters have missed badly to one side.

Final Results   --   --   53.0   43.3   Branstad +9.7
RCP Average   5/25 - 10/29   --   52.3   37.3   Branstad +15.0
Des Moines Register   10/26 - 10/29   805 LV   50   38   Branstad +12
Rasmussen Reports   9/23 - 9/23   500 LV   55   37   Branstad +18
PPP (D)   5/25 - 5/27   1277 LV   52   37   Branstad +15

If all of us go to vote.brucebailey.com, we can turn this one around!

Anyway, of the best pollsters: R+2, R+1, D+1. Still a pure toss up.

To be fair, pollsters are more accurate in distinguishing a +1 lead from a +5 lead than they are at distinguishing a +9 lead from a +13 lead.  I don't know why, but that's pretty well-established.

I agree, however, in Iowa, they miss either way. Missed in 2008, 2010, 2012 by sizable margins. Dem support in polling averages is underestimated in Iowa, their is a clear pattern.

Yep, I agree.  At this point, I still believe Braley will win by a narrow margin.  But, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Stupendous news!

Actually they overestimated him by 6.2 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_mccain_vs_obama-209.html).

Your right in 2008 sorry (I was looking at the Clinton/O numbers).

2010 and 2012 was a different story. D support was underestimated.

Gonna go ahead and not over-react to silly things anymore.

Lolliberalmath.