Talk Elections

Walker 46
Burke 45

YouGov weighted an initial 31.1D/36.6I/32.2R (R+1.1) sample  into 35.1D/33.4I/31.4 R (D+3.7).

Walker up 4 with Independents and they show the same odd phenomenon the MU Law poll had of Walker gaining strongly with women (Burke up 3) and Burke gaining strongly with men (Walker up 6).

Link?

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2014-10-24/WI_GOV_4.png

It's old, from their last wave of polls. :P

"Fieldwork: September 20 - October 1"

No, the numbers are completely different.  The dates just weren't updated yet.  They haven't "officially" released this yet, but all the new Gov races are there.


Phil Kerpen ‏@kerpen  8m8 minutes ago
CONFIRMED: Yesterday's YouGov uploads correct except for fieldwork dates. Compare:
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2014-10-24/AZ_GOV_4.png …
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2014-10-25/AZ_GOV_4.png …

Ah, I see. Is there a way to get all of the results so we can do a megathread?

mypalfish is responsible for this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=12005.0

@kerpen on Twitter posted the results from a number of different races but not all, I don't think.

Yes, I am.

And this poll result is still legit.

To get the results, paste this link into your address bar, but just change the state abbreviation (except for MN, which isn't there for some reason).

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2014-10-24/AL_GOV_4.png

AL: Bentley 63-25
AK: Parnell 42-39
AZ: Ducey 50-40
AR: Hutchinson 47-38 (*GAIN)
CA: Brown 55-37
CO: Hickenlooper 48-44
CT: Malloy 42-41
FL: Scott 46-45
GA: Deal 47-43
HI: Ige 54-22 (?!?!)
ID: Otter 53-35
IL: Quinn 45-41
IA: Branstad 50-37
KS: Brownback 43-40
ME: Michaud 37-35 (*GAIN)
MD: Brown 51-38
MA: Coakley 45-41
MI: Schauer 45-44 (*GAIN)
MN: Dayton 50-41
NE: Ricketts 55-35
NV: Sandoval 53-28
NH: Hassan 47-38
NM: Martinez 50-38
NY: Cuomo 56-31
OH: Kasich 54-35
OK: Fallin 56-32
OR: Kitzhaber 48-42
PA: Wolf 52-39 (*GAIN)
RI: Raimondo 40-35
SC: Haley 50-33
SD: Daugaard 54-28
TN: Haslam 58-30
TX: Abbott 57-37
VT: Shumlin 47-35
WI: Walker 46-45
WY: Mead 58-33

It doesn't look too outlierish actually.

Switch MA with AK, then it's believable. Also, WTF is going on in Hawaii?

Doesn't look like there's been much movement since their last polls, unless I'm missing something.

Also I was polled by YouGov for the New York Governor race! They didn't have Hawkins as one of the options (it was Cuomo, Astorino, Other, and Undecided) so I wrote him in after selecting other.

Remember that it's the same people being surveyed again. I see GA's margin shrank a point IIRC.

Wow you're the "I will now accept my accolades" guy? It's an honor to meet you, Sir. You're a personal Atlas hero of mine.

The fact that it's the same people being surveyed again makes Hawaii even more weird. Ige was up 6 in the last poll, now he's up 32? Did Aiona kill small children on live TV in the past month?

Yeah. A lot of races where there's supposedly been a lot of movement seem to be pretty static though (Kansas, Massachusetts, Illinois, etc.).

I've always assumed based on where the results started in these polls for many that this was an overly-Republican sample and that the minimal movement is because there are going to be relatively few people chip off if that's the case.

Again, Hick is looking good.

OMG muh unskewing!!! ...

But yeah, in reality I never got the virtue of this style of polling. I mean, I'm no fan of lv screens... but how does this method accommodate changes in turnout models-enthusiasm?

Since this is surveying the same people, "momentum" since the last poll is arguably more important than the toplines, so here it is for the relevant races:

AK: R+8
AR: D+2
CO: None
CT: D+1
FL: D+2
GA: D+1
HI: D+26 (lol)
ID: D+6
IL: D+1
KS: None
ME: D+3
MD: R+4
MA: R+2
MI: R+1
MN: D+2
NH: R+1
NM: R+5
OR: R+1
PA: D+4
RI: D+2
TX: R+6
WI: R+2

I'll do it in the Senate thread in a minute.

Has KCDem been banned or something?

JUNK POLLS!!

Probably they just had terrible response rates messing their Hawaii sample up for some reason

Meh

FL and KS have constantly had an R bias while the opposite seems to be the case for MA.

These are basically useless.

my only guess of where the hell those HI numbers came from is that they forgot to include Aiona and just polled Ige vs Hannemann

I'm skeptical Cutler is only at 7%, as I'd expected Michaud to be up more if so.

This is shaping up to be one of the closest elections in the country, though I still think Walker will end up pulling it out. He's led in more polls than Burke has over the last month. Of course they could simply be wrong. There's only one way to find out.

I'd been planning to vote on election day but perhaps I should vote early in case I drop dead between now and next Tuesday and Burke wins by one vote. :P

Bro! Good to have you back! You should post more often.

It looks like there is a good bit of special sauce added to their polls. If you look at the Alabama link, it seems like they adjust for gender, party affiliation and ideology. Maybe that's based on some sort of modeling as to turnout and enthusiasm.

If other YouGov polls are anything like the one I took for New York, then they only list the two main candidates and then have an other you can check, where you're prompted to write in what "other" candidate you'll vote for. So the third party vote in these things is depressed considerably because of that.

This is going to be a fun one.

This will probably be the race that keeps me up very late on the 4th.

Have alcohol handy.

Aren't the undecideds on a lot of these like 20%+? I'm pretty sure that's what I saw on the table of all the polls. If so, those are trash and need to be thrown out.

The Governors numbers are now on their website. MN is Dayton 50-41.

Lol at Governor "Steve Parnell" in AK!

This should be an exciting night - so many states could go either way.

Maryland is turning into a sleeper race, IMO. Hogan seems to have momentum and the numbers there have been tight for a while. Might be too little, too late, but we will see.

That is true in IL. YouGov did not include Grimm, so it is hard to read the undecided as a true undecided vote.

So... when are you accepting those accolades?