Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2014 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on October 27, 2014, 07:58:11 am



Title: NM: Research & Polling Inc: Weh-surge ! (?)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 27, 2014, 07:58:11 am
New Poll: New Mexico Senator by Research & Polling Inc on 2014-10-23 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=35220141023075)

Summary: D: 50%, R: 43%, I: 0%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.abqjournal.com/486736/news/us-senate-race-tightens.html)


Title: Re: NM: Research & Polling Inc: Weh-surge ! (?)
Post by: Panda Express on October 27, 2014, 08:29:23 am
no weh


Title: Re: NM: Research & Polling Inc: Weh-surge ! (?)
Post by: King on October 27, 2014, 09:03:14 am
Udall had some of his voters move to CO to vote for his cousin.


Title: Re: NM: Research & Polling Inc: Weh-surge ! (?)
Post by: Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon on October 27, 2014, 02:01:48 pm
Low 40's is the generic R share in NM, so that's not so surprising, but seeing Udall at only 50% is worrying, to say the least.


Title: Re: NM: Research & Polling Inc: Weh-surge ! (?)
Post by: Vosem on October 27, 2014, 02:32:06 pm
I actually think in a cycle like this one Generic R (which is what Weh is running as, albeit underfunded) "should" hold Tom Udall to a high single digits win. Had Weh been funded better (or had we just recruited a better candidate, like Heather Wilson, Jon Barela, or Dianna Duran) this one could've been a real race -- I don't think Tom Udall is any more skilled than his cousin; he just has the good luck of running in a more Democratic state against a lesser-known opponent.

If Weh does well, it might help set him down for another race (Gov or Sen 2018) down the road.


Title: Re: NM: Research & Polling Inc: Weh-surge ! (?)
Post by: IceSpear on October 27, 2014, 03:11:50 pm
Nope, no surge. Read the fine print guys.

Quote
Research & Polling Inc. generated a random sample in which each New Mexico county received a representative proportion primarily based on turnout patterns in the 2010 general election for governor. When necessary, Research & Polling weights the surveys to reflect the known distribution of age, gender and party affiliation, based on the 2010 election.


Title: Re: NM: Research & Polling Inc: Weh-surge ! (?)
Post by: SamInTheSouth on October 27, 2014, 04:02:19 pm
no weh

;-)


Title: Re: NM: Research & Polling Inc: Weh-surge ! (?)
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 27, 2014, 04:04:26 pm
Nope, no surge. Read the fine print guys.

Quote
Research & Polling Inc. generated a random sample in which each New Mexico county received a representative proportion primarily based on turnout patterns in the 2010 general election for governor. When necessary, Research & Polling weights the surveys to reflect the known distribution of age, gender and party affiliation, based on the 2010 election.

wtf 🙅


Title: Re: NM: Research & Polling Inc: Weh-surge ! (?)
Post by: New_Conservative on October 27, 2014, 04:14:55 pm
No Weh-surge. :(


Title: Re: NM: Research & Polling Inc: Weh-surge ! (?)
Post by: tmthforu94 on October 27, 2014, 04:20:27 pm
Great Heather Wilson should have ran


Title: Re: NM: Research & Polling Inc: Weh-surge ! (?)
Post by: Ebowed on October 28, 2014, 04:12:46 am
Nope, no surge. Read the fine print guys.

Quote
Research & Polling Inc. generated a random sample in which each New Mexico county received a representative proportion primarily based on turnout patterns in the 2010 general election for governor. When necessary, Research & Polling weights the surveys to reflect the known distribution of age, gender and party affiliation, based on the 2010 election.

wtf 🙅

Yeah, seriously?


Title: Re: NM: Research & Polling Inc: Weh-surge ! (?)
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on October 28, 2014, 04:34:24 am
Youguv has it 52-36, so whatever.


Title: Re: NM: Research & Polling Inc: Weh-surge ! (?)
Post by: Recalcuate on October 28, 2014, 08:08:54 am
Youguv has it 52-36, so whatever.

This race is barely worth the click through this page.

This Udall is not going anywhere before or after this poll. Zero chance of an upset. If Weh turns it into a single-digit loss, so what. It's still a loss.


Title: Re: NM: Research & Polling Inc: Weh-surge ! (?)
Post by: IceSpear on October 28, 2014, 01:59:51 pm
Nope, no surge. Read the fine print guys.

Quote
Research & Polling Inc. generated a random sample in which each New Mexico county received a representative proportion primarily based on turnout patterns in the 2010 general election for governor. When necessary, Research & Polling weights the surveys to reflect the known distribution of age, gender and party affiliation, based on the 2010 election.

wtf 🙅

Yeah, seriously?

Apparently many pollsters have no idea how to poll. This isn't the first (and I doubt it will be the last) poll where their "likely voter" screen is "did you vote in 2010?"