Title: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Republic on November 01, 2014, 01:52:09 PM
There's an election this Tuesday, or so I heard.
Discuss with maps.
Discuss with maps.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 01, 2014, 03:28:16 PM
This might be a pertinent first map:
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 01, 2014, 11:56:45 PM
Junk election!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: smoltchanov on November 02, 2014, 12:18:06 AM
Junk election!
Because Democrats are likely to lose a lot of close elections? If so - yes.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on November 02, 2014, 12:20:45 AM
^ Ol' Bev Perdue was right. I think we just suspend these elections, (http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/perdue_suggests_suspending_congressional_elections_for_two_years_was_she_serious) preferably until 2016.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on November 02, 2014, 12:23:04 AM
Junk election!
I think I finally understand you.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: smoltchanov on November 02, 2014, 12:28:21 AM
^ Ol' Bev Perdue was right. I think we just suspend these elections, (http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/perdue_suggests_suspending_congressional_elections_for_two_years_was_she_serious) preferably until 2016.
May be - cancel midterm elections at all? Who, but Democrats themselves, are to blame if their voters don't care to vote?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: The Other Castro on November 02, 2014, 12:58:29 PM
Junk election!
I think I finally understand you.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 03, 2014, 07:54:13 PM
So we're going to get results from Dixville Notch and Hart's Location at midnight, right?
I'm going to guess that Shaheen may over perform vs. her statewide numbers given Brown's carpetbagger status.
I'm going to guess that Shaheen may over perform vs. her statewide numbers given Brown's carpetbagger status.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rbt48 on November 03, 2014, 09:02:04 PM
Does anyone know an AP link for the election returns? If so, please share!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: BaconBacon96 on November 04, 2014, 04:33:23 AM
The sole purpose of this post is to put this thread into my posts page.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 05:28:55 AM
In 12 hours this should be one awesome spam-fest!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Tender Branson on November 04, 2014, 07:10:08 AM
Does anyone know an AP link for the election returns? If so, please share!
I tried this:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/CO_Page_1104.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
Not working.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Tender Branson on November 04, 2014, 07:31:18 AM
CNN:
http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/main
NYT live-blog and results:
http://elections.nytimes.com/2014
Politico:
http://www.politico.com/2014-election/results/map
http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/main
NYT live-blog and results:
http://elections.nytimes.com/2014
Politico:
http://www.politico.com/2014-election/results/map
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 04, 2014, 12:17:07 PM
For those interested, I am posting a map of each state's counting bias (i.e. who the early precincts tend to favor) . This is from analysis of 2008-12 election night coverage. It is not foolproof, it is always possible that a state will change how it counts all of the sudden and as you can see, there are some states where there is either an unclear one or apparently none at all. Also, these biases vary in strength - Georgia's is very bad for instance, but Massachusetts has only a slight bias. But, here you go:
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 04, 2014, 12:31:52 PM
Does anyone have links for live coverage of US TV channels? US election nights are a million times more fun with TV!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: njwes on November 04, 2014, 01:07:21 PM
Does anyone have links for live coverage of US TV channels? US election nights are a million times more fun with TV!
I imagine that all the major networks will be streaming their coverage!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 04, 2014, 02:04:01 PM
Does anyone have links for live coverage of US TV channels? US election nights are a million times more fun with TV!
I don't think Dave would appreciate us giving out direct links to pirated TV streams here, but I just googled "MSNBC streaming", and it was pretty easy to find pirated streams out there. I imagine you can do the same for the other networks.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Oak Hills on November 04, 2014, 02:14:02 PM
Does anyone have links for live coverage of US TV channels? US election nights are a million times more fun with TV!
Here is a round-up of election-night coverage from TVNewser. (http://www.mediabistro.com/tvnewser/heres-your-guide-to-election-night-coverage_b244600) It doesn't say if all of them will be streaming, but several of them will.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 04, 2014, 02:51:02 PM
CNN: Long Lines in Mecklenberg County
Great news for Hagan!
Quote
In North Carolina, where Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan is in a tight race to beat Republican challenger Thom Tillis, long lines were reported in Mecklenburg County, which includes Charlotte.
Great news for Hagan!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Senator Cris on November 04, 2014, 02:59:50 PM
Dixville Notch?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: tmthforu94 on November 04, 2014, 03:02:04 PM
Dixville Notch?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 04, 2014, 03:06:57 PM
Dixville Notch?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: retromike22 on November 04, 2014, 03:48:12 PM
Junk election!
I think I finally understand you.
One of my major reasons for looking forward to this day is so KCDem will stop saying "junk poll!"
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: retromike22 on November 04, 2014, 03:49:13 PM
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 03:52:21 PM
Grimeslide!!!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 04:36:12 PM
Does anyone have links for live coverage of US TV channels? US election nights are a million times more fun with TV!
Here's an MSNBC live stream. http://www.hulkusaa.com/watch-msnbc-live-streaming/
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 04:37:51 PM
Junk election!
I think I finally understand you.
One of my major reasons for looking forward to this day is so KCDem will stop saying "junk poll!"
Do you really think polling will get so accurate in the 2016 cycle?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: retromike22 on November 04, 2014, 04:59:54 PM
Junk election!
I think I finally understand you.
One of my major reasons for looking forward to this day is so KCDem will stop saying "junk poll!"
Do you really think polling will get so accurate in the 2016 cycle?
I hope so. Side note: I can't believe Kentucky ends polling so early! No wonder the Dems do bad there.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 04, 2014, 05:09:36 PM
NH Senate Results (0% Reporting)
Scott Brown: 60% (3 votes)
Jeanne Shaheen 40% (2 votes)
Scott Brown: 60% (3 votes)
Jeanne Shaheen 40% (2 votes)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: BaconBacon96 on November 04, 2014, 05:11:02 PM
NH Senate Results (0% Reporting)
Scott Brown: 60% (3 votes)
Jeanne Shaheen 40% (2 votes)
Scott Brown: 60% (3 votes)
Jeanne Shaheen 40% (2 votes)
SCOTTMENTUM
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 04, 2014, 05:16:19 PM
Quote
@NateSilver538
PRELIMINARY exit poll results show an electorate roughly halfway between 2010 and 2012 in terms of party ID, racial demographics.
PRELIMINARY exit poll results show an electorate roughly halfway between 2010 and 2012 in terms of party ID, racial demographics.
THE DEMOCRATIC WAVE IS BUILDING
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 04, 2014, 05:19:42 PM
Quote
@NateSilver538
PRELIMINARY exit poll results show an electorate roughly halfway between 2010 and 2012 in terms of party ID, racial demographics.
PRELIMINARY exit poll results show an electorate roughly halfway between 2010 and 2012 in terms of party ID, racial demographics.
THE DEMOCRATIC WAVE IS BUILDING
But I thought it would be 2010 redux! ::)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 04, 2014, 05:22:14 PM
From the exit poll:
link (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_EXIT_POLL?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT)
link (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_EXIT_POLL?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT)
Quote
Most of the Americans voting Tuesday say they are dissatisfied or angry with the Obama administration. But they're not so fond of the opposition, either.
Exit polls find just 1 in 5 voters say they trust the government to do what is right most or all of the time.
About a quarter say they are dissatisfied or angry with both Obama and the GOP leadership in Congress. Another 6 in 10 are unhappy with one or the other of them.
The surveys show voters taking positions that align more with Democrats on many issues. Majorities favor a way for those in the country illegally to stay, for example.
Exit polls find just 1 in 5 voters say they trust the government to do what is right most or all of the time.
About a quarter say they are dissatisfied or angry with both Obama and the GOP leadership in Congress. Another 6 in 10 are unhappy with one or the other of them.
The surveys show voters taking positions that align more with Democrats on many issues. Majorities favor a way for those in the country illegally to stay, for example.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Eraserhead on November 04, 2014, 05:22:34 PM
CNN put some exit poll junk on the air. Democratic Party had a 44% approval. Republican Party had a 40% approval.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 04, 2014, 05:24:40 PM
More Nate Silver tweets:
Quote
PRELIMINARY exit poll results in Georgia show record nonwhite turnout BUT an electorate that strongly disapproves of Pres. Obama.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 04, 2014, 05:27:40 PM
From CNN TV, national exit poll results:
Top issue:
economy 45%
health care 25%
illegal immigration 14%
foreign policy 13%
Economic conditions in the US are:
good 30%
poor 69%
The US economy is:
getting better 35%
worse 31%
staying same 33%
Is the US on the right track or the wrong track?
right track 31%
wrong track 65%
Top issue:
economy 45%
health care 25%
illegal immigration 14%
foreign policy 13%
Economic conditions in the US are:
good 30%
poor 69%
The US economy is:
getting better 35%
worse 31%
staying same 33%
Is the US on the right track or the wrong track?
right track 31%
wrong track 65%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 04, 2014, 05:29:13 PM
National exit poll, how Congress is handling its job:
approve 19%
disapprove 79%
approve 19%
disapprove 79%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 04, 2014, 05:30:31 PM
National exit poll: Do you favor legalizing marijuana in your state?
yes 49%
no 46%
yes 49%
no 46%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: I Will Not Be Wrong on November 04, 2014, 05:32:50 PM
Does anyone have links for live coverage of US TV channels? US election nights are a million times more fun with TV!
Here's an MSNBC live stream. http://www.hulkusaa.com/watch-msnbc-live-streaming/
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 04, 2014, 05:37:17 PM
National exit poll:
the government is doing too much 53%
the government should do more 41%
Do you approve of US military action against ISIS:
yes 58%
no 35%
Are you worried about a major terrorist attack in the US:
yes 72%
no 28%
the government is doing too much 53%
the government should do more 41%
Do you approve of US military action against ISIS:
yes 58%
no 35%
Are you worried about a major terrorist attack in the US:
yes 72%
no 28%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 05:38:50 PM
Quote
@NateSilver538
PRELIMINARY exit poll results show an electorate roughly halfway between 2010 and 2012 in terms of party ID, racial demographics.
PRELIMINARY exit poll results show an electorate roughly halfway between 2010 and 2012 in terms of party ID, racial demographics.
THE DEMOCRATIC WAVE IS BUILDING
Absolutely glorious news!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 04, 2014, 05:40:59 PM
For those interested, I am posting a map of each state's counting bias (i.e. who the early precincts tend to favor) . This is from analysis of 2008-12 election night coverage. It is not foolproof, it is always possible that a state will change how it counts all of the sudden and as you can see, there are some states where there is either an unclear one or apparently none at all. Also, these biases vary in strength - Georgia's is very bad for instance, but Massachusetts has only a slight bias. But, here you go:
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()
Is this your first time using crayons?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 04, 2014, 05:43:36 PM
National exit poll party ID (again, source: CNN TV):
Dem 37%
GOP 34%
Indies 29%
Ideology:
moderate 40%
conservative 36%
liberal 23%
Obama job approval
approve 44%
disapprove 54%
Dem 37%
GOP 34%
Indies 29%
Ideology:
moderate 40%
conservative 36%
liberal 23%
Obama job approval
approve 44%
disapprove 54%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Gass3268 on November 04, 2014, 05:44:54 PM
For those interested, I am posting a map of each state's counting bias (i.e. who the early precincts tend to favor) . This is from analysis of 2008-12 election night coverage. It is not foolproof, it is always possible that a state will change how it counts all of the sudden and as you can see, there are some states where there is either an unclear one or apparently none at all. Also, these biases vary in strength - Georgia's is very bad for instance, but Massachusetts has only a slight bias. But, here you go:
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()
Is this your first time using crayons?
He did a great job staying in the lines! That being said, good work on this!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 05:45:03 PM
National exit poll party ID (again, source: CNN TV):
Dem 37%
GOP 34%
Indies 29%
Ideology:
moderate 40%
conservative 36%
liberal 23%
Obama job approval
approve 44%
disapprove 54%
Dem 37%
GOP 34%
Indies 29%
Ideology:
moderate 40%
conservative 36%
liberal 23%
Obama job approval
approve 44%
disapprove 54%
Seems a bit high if you ask me
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 05:47:20 PM
National exit poll party ID (again, source: CNN TV):
Dem 37%
GOP 34%
Indies 29%
Ideology:
moderate 40%
conservative 36%
liberal 23%
Obama job approval
approve 44%
disapprove 54%
Dem 37%
GOP 34%
Indies 29%
Ideology:
moderate 40%
conservative 36%
liberal 23%
Obama job approval
approve 44%
disapprove 54%
Stupendous news!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 04, 2014, 05:48:11 PM
National exit poll party ID (again, source: CNN TV):
Dem 37%
GOP 34%
Indies 29%
Ideology:
moderate 40%
conservative 36%
liberal 23%
Obama job approval
approve 44%
disapprove 54%
Dem 37%
GOP 34%
Indies 29%
Ideology:
moderate 40%
conservative 36%
liberal 23%
Obama job approval
approve 44%
disapprove 54%
Seems a bit high if you ask me
It's basically the same as the RCP average.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 05:52:09 PM
National exit poll party ID (again, source: CNN TV):
Dem 37%
GOP 34%
Indies 29%
Ideology:
moderate 40%
conservative 36%
liberal 23%
Obama job approval
approve 44%
disapprove 54%
Dem 37%
GOP 34%
Indies 29%
Ideology:
moderate 40%
conservative 36%
liberal 23%
Obama job approval
approve 44%
disapprove 54%
Seems a bit high if you ask me
It's basically the same as the RCP average.
Better than expected for D's, then. Though considering most competitive senate races are in red states, its more of a factor in the house than it is in the senate races.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Thomas D on November 04, 2014, 05:52:29 PM
National exit poll party ID (again, source: CNN TV):
Dem 37%
GOP 34%
Indies 29%
Ideology:
moderate 40%
conservative 36%
liberal 23%
Obama job approval
approve 44%
disapprove 54%
Dem 37%
GOP 34%
Indies 29%
Ideology:
moderate 40%
conservative 36%
liberal 23%
Obama job approval
approve 44%
disapprove 54%
In 2010 CNN's exit poll had 42% Conservative.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: retromike22 on November 04, 2014, 05:53:48 PM
National exit poll party ID (again, source: CNN TV):
Dem 37%
GOP 34%
Indies 29%
Ideology:
moderate 40%
conservative 36%
liberal 23%
Obama job approval
approve 44%
disapprove 54%
Dem 37%
GOP 34%
Indies 29%
Ideology:
moderate 40%
conservative 36%
liberal 23%
Obama job approval
approve 44%
disapprove 54%
Seems a bit high if you ask me
Well this is including all the states though, and a lot of them are non Senate race democratic states.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 04, 2014, 05:58:12 PM
National exit poll party ID (again, source: CNN TV):
Dem 37%
GOP 34%
Indies 29%
Ideology:
moderate 40%
conservative 36%
liberal 23%
Obama job approval
approve 44%
disapprove 54%
Dem 37%
GOP 34%
Indies 29%
Ideology:
moderate 40%
conservative 36%
liberal 23%
Obama job approval
approve 44%
disapprove 54%
In 2010 CNN's exit poll had 42% Conservative.
These ideology numbers are looking very similar to 2012's- at a first glance Wikipedia had 25% Liberal, 40% Moderate and 35% Conservative.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 05:58:53 PM
Alright, eastern Kentucky closes in 2 min. Lets start this long night!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 06:03:46 PM
Polls closed in Eastern Kentucky and Indiana. No numbers yet. Soon we'll see how Grimes is doing in coal country.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Senator Cris on November 04, 2014, 06:06:14 PM
1% in in KY... McConnell up 70-28.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 04, 2014, 06:06:17 PM
1% of the vote in in Kentucky:
McConnell 66%
Grimes 32%
McConnell 66%
Grimes 32%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Senator Cris on November 04, 2014, 06:08:39 PM
Fox News shows exit poll NH Sen Brown 50-Shaheen 49
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Seattle on November 04, 2014, 06:09:45 PM
Fox News shows exit poll NH Sen Brown 50-Shaheen 49
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 06:10:04 PM
Fox News shows exit poll NH Sen Brown 50-Shaheen 49
Junk exit poll! NH doesn't close polls until 8!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 04, 2014, 06:11:37 PM
Is the AP site working yet? :(
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: sg0508 on November 04, 2014, 06:12:17 PM
We'll see how long it takes to call KY for McConnell. If it's right at 7pm, perhaps a big night for the GOP is coming? We know Mac probably wins, but it's the "tone setter". Also watch Warner's margin in VA, which seemed to be waning.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 04, 2014, 06:12:29 PM
That is just among Indies in NH I think.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 04, 2014, 06:12:51 PM
National exit poll: Strong turnout among older voters:
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 06:14:20 PM
Time to start enjoying ourselves :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 04, 2014, 06:14:25 PM
National exit poll: Should same sex marriage be legal in your state?
yes 49%
no 47%
yes 49%
no 47%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mehmentum on November 04, 2014, 06:14:42 PM
McConnell down to 61% with Grimes at 37%.
Still 1% in.
Still 1% in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 06:14:43 PM
Democrat Tom Spangler is leading Larry Bucshon in IN-8 54-44, with less than 1% in. Democratic House wave building?
EDIT: Spangler is losing by 20 points now, but Elisabeth Jensen is leading Andy Barr by 4 points. Could Bandit have been right?
EDIT: Spangler is losing by 20 points now, but Elisabeth Jensen is leading Andy Barr by 4 points. Could Bandit have been right?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: sg0508 on November 04, 2014, 06:14:47 PM
Fox News shows exit poll NH Sen Brown 50-Shaheen 49
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 04, 2014, 06:15:14 PM
Democrat Tom Spangler is leading Larry Bucshon in IN-8 54-44, with less than 1% in. Democratic House wave building?
IIRC Bucshon was also losing early in 2012, so probably not.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Zanas on November 04, 2014, 06:16:02 PM
Any other international poster has a reliable link to a live TV coverage of either CNN or MSNBC ? I can't seem to find any. Thanks.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 06:16:53 PM
McConnell getting 58% in Knott County, 51% in Floyd County so far
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 06:17:33 PM
Brett Hume on Fox News says Gillespie in VA has an internal poll that came out this morning showing him up 1% against Warner in VA. Let the fun begin!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on November 04, 2014, 06:18:05 PM
Quote
Daily Kos Elections @DKElections 1m1 minute ago
So far only Henry and Perry counties showing more than 3% in. McConnell over-performing his 2008 margins there so far #kysen
So far only Henry and Perry counties showing more than 3% in. McConnell over-performing his 2008 margins there so far #kysen
I knew coal county would be problematic for Grimes...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 04, 2014, 06:18:16 PM
Brett Hume on Fox News says Gillespie in VA has an internal poll that came out this morning showing him up 1% against Warner in VA. Let the fun begin!
I have a bridge to sell you if you believe that.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 06:19:00 PM
Brett Hume on Fox News says Gillespie in VA has an internal poll that came out this morning showing him up 1% against Warner in VA. Let the fun begin!
One thing I will love about this election is all the stupid pundits will be proved wrong once again.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Sol on November 04, 2014, 06:19:14 PM
Does anyone have the link for live county-by-county results?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 06:20:20 PM
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/results
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Donnie on November 04, 2014, 06:21:38 PM
Exit polls suggest low Democratic turnout in Colorado. Consistent with their lower rate of returns in mail ballots.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 06:21:54 PM
ALG outperforming Obama '12 by 15 points in coal country. Could it be enough?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 06:22:49 PM
ALG outperforming Obama '12 by 15 points in coal country. Could it be enough?
She's underperforming Lunsford '08, though.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Senator Cris on November 04, 2014, 06:23:41 PM
The source of NH Exit Poll was Barone on twitter.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 06:24:59 PM
ALG outperforming Obama '12 by 15 points in coal country. Could it be enough?
She's underperforming Lunsford '08, though.
Yes, but she'll outperform his in the west.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 06:25:34 PM
ALG outperforming Obama '12 by 15 points in coal country. Could it be enough?
Unlikely.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Holmes on November 04, 2014, 06:25:57 PM
Brett Hume on Fox News says Gillespie in VA has an internal poll that came out this morning showing him up 1% against Warner in VA. Let the fun begin!
One thing I will love about this election is all the stupid pundits will be proved wrong once again.
That's always good.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: sg0508 on November 04, 2014, 06:26:37 PM
Anything coming out of GA yet, even though it's 30 minutes to poll-close?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 06:27:40 PM
Barr has taken the lead from Jensen, and actually leads double digits (56-44) now; this was projected Safe R, but it's probably the most competitive KY House race.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on November 04, 2014, 06:27:56 PM
Quote
Daily Kos Elections @DKElections 1m1 minute ago
8% of Bath County in and McConnell overperforming his 2008 margins there quite a bit so far #ksysen
8% of Bath County in and McConnell overperforming his 2008 margins there quite a bit so far #ksysen
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RR1997 on November 04, 2014, 06:29:01 PM
ALG outperforming Obama '12 by 15 points in coal country. Could it be enough?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 06:29:43 PM
Bath county 8% in. ALG outperforming Obama by 11 points. Other counties she's outperforming between 8-15 points. Won't be enough, but much closer than the polls suggest.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 06:30:59 PM
Per CNN live interview with county official: 52% to 46% from Grimes in absentee ballots in Fayette county.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 06:31:41 PM
Looking at the scattered county returns, KY will very probably be called as soon as the balance of the polls close in 25 minutes. It won't be very close.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 04, 2014, 06:33:12 PM
Anyone have a blank version of Smid's House map?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 06:33:12 PM
Let's get more votes ugh. No Louisville numbers!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends on November 04, 2014, 06:34:02 PM
To think I'm going to be out of the house for much of the returns...
But given that at this stage, McConnell is doing better than in 2008, he should win, although too early to call yet.
But given that at this stage, McConnell is doing better than in 2008, he should win, although too early to call yet.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Eraserhead on November 04, 2014, 06:34:33 PM
Let's get to a race that wasn't decided weeks ago.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on November 04, 2014, 06:34:40 PM
Anyone have a blank version of Smid's House map?
I have a smaller version.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 06:35:08 PM
Let's get to a race that wasn't decided weeks ago.
You misspelled "months."
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 06:36:07 PM
McConnell, of course, wins, though, I would wait at least for some Louisville and Lexington numbers to call it officially. The question is, how big the margin.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 06:38:38 PM
McConnell, of course, wins, though, I would wait at least for some Louisville and Lexington numbers to call it officially. The question is, how big the margin.
It will be around an 8-10 point victory for Mitch, something around 54% to 55%.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 04, 2014, 06:39:26 PM
KY was always about the margin.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 06:39:48 PM
Taylor county 10%, ALG outperforming Obama by 10 points.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 06:40:13 PM
McConnell, of course, wins, though, I would wait at least for some Louisville and Lexington numbers to call it officially. The question is, how big the margin.
It will be around an 8-10 point victory for Mitch, something around 54% to 55%.
Looks plausible.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 06:41:19 PM
Taylor county 10%, ALG outperforming Obama by 10 points.
Outperforming Obama in Kentucky is not much of an achievement. The president, in case you did not notice, is black :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 06:42:11 PM
Quote
AoSHQ Decision Desk @AoSHQDD 51s51 seconds ago
Fayette County 1622 McConnell
Grimes 1815
so far #KYsen
Fayette County 1622 McConnell
Grimes 1815
so far #KYsen
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 04, 2014, 06:42:28 PM
Fox News is acting like Gillespie has a chance.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 04, 2014, 06:43:05 PM
Brett Hume on Fox News says Gillespie in VA has an internal poll that came out this morning showing him up 1% against Warner in VA. Let the fun begin!
Looks like Team Mark is going 0 for 4 tonight!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 04, 2014, 06:43:15 PM
Fox News is acting like Gillespie has a chance.
The shock never ends...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 06:43:20 PM
Taylor county 10%, ALG outperforming Obama by 10 points.
An over 10% over performance would indicate a win by McConnell by 4 points
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Eraserhead on November 04, 2014, 06:43:46 PM
Fox News is acting like Gillespie has a chance.
Very cute.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 04, 2014, 06:44:59 PM
The Kentucky results are appalling. As an early indicator you couldn't have hoped to see worse.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 06:46:07 PM
Will 14%, ALG outperforming Obama '12 by 12 points in Franklin county.
With 4% she's outperforming him by 16 points in Clark county.
With 4% she's outperforming him by 16 points in Clark county.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: CatoMinor on November 04, 2014, 06:46:41 PM
Taylor county 10%, ALG outperforming Obama by 10 points.
You do understand that you shouldn't really be comparing this to the Obama vs Romney race right? You need to be looking at how she is doing compared to the 2008 Senate race.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: The Free North on November 04, 2014, 06:47:26 PM
Will 14%, ALG outperforming Obama '12 by 12 points in Franklin county.
If she underperformed him Mitch would win in a landslide...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 06:47:56 PM
Taylor county 10%, ALG outperforming Obama by 10 points.
You do understand that you shouldn't really be comparing this to the Obama vs Romney race right? You need to be looking at how she is doing compared to the 2008 Senate race.
No, because the coal dynamics are different. She needs to outperform in the west because she's going to outperform lunsford in the east.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 04, 2014, 06:48:44 PM
I'm getting increasingly concerned about NH... I think we're going to see some weird results all over.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 06:49:28 PM
To see how bad coal country is now for D's, while there's only 1% in, Hal Rogers (R) has 78% in the district. It voted 75% Romney.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 06:51:07 PM
To see how bad coal country is now for D's, while there's only 1% in, Hal Rogers (R) has 78% in the district. It voted 75% Romney.
Hal Rogers overperformed Romney even in 2012.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: You kip if you want to... on November 04, 2014, 06:51:22 PM
McConnell wins (duh), but if you're keeping hope alive for ALG, the counties near the border are swinging to Mitch hard while ALG is treading water/slightly bettering 2008 as you move west across the state.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on November 04, 2014, 06:51:39 PM
Two of the races I actually care about are among the closest in the nation.
Honda vs. Khanna and Bera vs Ose.
Honda vs. Khanna and Bera vs Ose.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 04, 2014, 06:53:04 PM
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5422_04_11_14_6_52_26.png)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 06:53:40 PM
All Republican incumbents in the House leading so far in IN and KY. KY-06 is 54-46 right now
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 06:54:33 PM
No one is saying that ALG wins. But it'll probably be closer than the polls suggest.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 06:56:43 PM
Its 56-42 McConnell now with 2% in. Jefferson County has started reporting.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mehmentum on November 04, 2014, 06:56:57 PM
McConnel: 53%
Grimes: 44%
5% in.
Grimes: 44%
5% in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 06:57:07 PM
ALG trailing by .3% in Jefferson county with 2% of the vote in. LOL
Yarmuth leading by 12 points.
Walorski down 15 with 5% in.
Yarmuth leading by 12 points.
Walorski down 15 with 5% in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 06:59:06 PM
Grimes probably gets to 45-47%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 06:59:30 PM
Polls closing in GA, SC, VA, KY, IN, VT and most of FL in 1 min.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 06:59:42 PM
Bock leading Walorski by 12 in IN-2 with 5% in. Walorski underperformed in 2012, but I think the results are probably just coming in from somewhere very D. McConnell leads 56-42 with 2% in from a selection of places in eastern Kentucky.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: JerryArkansas on November 04, 2014, 07:00:41 PM
CNN projects McConnell as winner.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 07:00:42 PM
McConnell wins!
DISGUSTING!
DISGUSTING!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: sg0508 on November 04, 2014, 07:00:50 PM
And with that, six states have closed
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 07:01:03 PM
CNN projects McConnell wins :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Eraserhead on November 04, 2014, 07:01:07 PM
Called for the turtle.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 04, 2014, 07:01:27 PM
McConnell wins!
DISGUSTING!
DISGUSTING!
JUNK POLL
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 07:01:37 PM
Graham and Scott win as well.
Georgia too early to call.
Virginia too early to call.
Georgia too early to call.
Virginia too early to call.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: CatoMinor on November 04, 2014, 07:01:46 PM
Somewhere in Kentucky, Bandit is crying
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mehmentum on November 04, 2014, 07:01:48 PM
Junk state!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: retromike22 on November 04, 2014, 07:01:50 PM
Curses!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 04, 2014, 07:01:57 PM
Called for the turtle.
Le duh...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 07:02:05 PM
Fox calls Kentucky for McConnell....
and so it begins....
and so it begins....
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 07:02:14 PM
CNN projects McConnell wins :)
JUNK PROJECTION!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RR1997 on November 04, 2014, 07:02:19 PM
Fox has called the Kentucky Senate Race for Mitch McConnell.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 07:02:25 PM
Buona sera, Alison!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 07:02:56 PM
Virginia, Georgia too close to call.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 04, 2014, 07:03:10 PM
Fox: VA closer than all polling suggested.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 04, 2014, 07:03:11 PM
Anybody have a link to the state exit polls? I can't find them on CNN.com, my usual go-to source for them.
Also, has anyone found the AP link?
Also, has anyone found the AP link?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: NewYorkExpress on November 04, 2014, 07:03:21 PM
Wow... Thought CNN, might hold back a bit on Kentucky.
CNN projects victories for both Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott.
CNN projects victories for both Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 07:03:48 PM
Key house races: GA-12, FL-26, and VA-10 in these poll closings.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mehmentum on November 04, 2014, 07:04:07 PM
Remember, Democrats always start out loosing in Va, before they win.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Eraserhead on November 04, 2014, 07:04:50 PM
Exits:
Perdue +1
Warner +3 (lol)
Perdue +1
Warner +3 (lol)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Modernity has failed us on November 04, 2014, 07:04:58 PM
Scott and Graham projected to win.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 07:05:08 PM
What are the best websites to see real time results?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Eraserhead on November 04, 2014, 07:05:41 PM
Great for Nunn.
Terrible for Warner.
Terrible for Warner.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: user12345 on November 04, 2014, 07:05:56 PM
AP calls it for McConnell
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 04, 2014, 07:06:20 PM
Anybody have a link to the state exit polls? I can't find them on CNN.com, my usual go-to source for them.
Also, has anyone found the AP link?
Also, has anyone found the AP link?
http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/main
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 07:06:29 PM
It is Kentucky. Dems had a pipe dream here and it should have been over a while ago.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on November 04, 2014, 07:06:56 PM
Guys, don't listen to the networks. 55% for McConnell with only 6% in is far from a win.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ilikeverin on November 04, 2014, 07:06:58 PM
What are the best websites to see real time results?
HuffPo's is amazing! http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/results
But I need a talking head to say something breathless whenever polls close. Are any networks streaming anything that isn't behind a paywall?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: user12345 on November 04, 2014, 07:07:18 PM
What are the best websites to see real time results?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: NewYorkExpress on November 04, 2014, 07:07:26 PM
CNN projects all non-Andy Barr Kentucky incumbents will win.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Suburbia on November 04, 2014, 07:07:31 PM
McConnell wins reelection. I see Grimes running in 2016 for Rand Paul's seat if he runs for president.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Zanas on November 04, 2014, 07:08:06 PM
What are the best websites to see real time results?
HuffPo's is amazing! http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/results
But I need a talking head to say something breathless whenever polls close. Are any networks streaming anything that isn't behind a paywall?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 07:08:14 PM
5% in IN-2, Bock (D) leading Walorski (R/I) 55-43. I'm sure D parts are reporting first however.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: BaconBacon96 on November 04, 2014, 07:08:29 PM
Fox is saying Brown at 60% after 1%.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 07:08:55 PM
What are the best websites to see real time results?
HuffPo's is amazing! http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/results
But I need a talking head to say something breathless whenever polls close. Are any networks streaming anything that isn't behind a paywall?
What are the best websites to see real time results?
What are the best websites to see real time results?
HuffPo's is amazing! http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/results
But I need a talking head to say something breathless whenever polls close. Are any networks streaming anything that isn't behind a paywall?
Thanks guys
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ilikeverin on November 04, 2014, 07:09:18 PM
Oh, wait, the BBC has a feed: http://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-us-canada-29886600
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Eraserhead on November 04, 2014, 07:09:28 PM
In case you guys missed it, Warner is only +3 in the exits (haha). Perdue is only +1.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 04, 2014, 07:10:18 PM
Fox is saying Brown at 60% after 1%.
Um... polls haven't closed in NH yet.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Modernity has failed us on November 04, 2014, 07:10:43 PM
Fox is saying Brown at 60% after 1%.
Um... polls haven't closed in NH yet.
VOTER FRAUD
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 07:11:12 PM
Fox is saying Brown at 60% after 1%.
It is 3 votes to 2 :)
One of those famous villages where everybody votes at midnight.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 07:11:48 PM
Still nothing out of GA or FL. I think exit polls at the end of the night are going to prove inaccurate in many races.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 07:12:01 PM
Fox is saying Brown at 60% after 1%.
Um... polls haven't closed in NH yet.
Dixville Notch results...all five votes there. :P
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 07:12:14 PM
McConnell will win by 2008 margin.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: user12345 on November 04, 2014, 07:12:20 PM
Fox is saying Brown at 60% after 1%.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 07:12:27 PM
Brown and Havenstein are both leading -- 3 votes to 2 votes :P
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 07:12:44 PM
Still nothing out of GA or FL. I think exit polls at the end of the night are going to prove inaccurate in many races.
The polls in the famous Florida panhandle doesn't close until 8 (7pm CST).
GA results will start to trickle in probably 30-45 minutes after the polls close.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 04, 2014, 07:12:51 PM
Apparently Crist is doing very well in Florida so far.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: BaconBacon96 on November 04, 2014, 07:12:55 PM
As I said earlier, Scottmentum is rising.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 04, 2014, 07:13:01 PM
Fox is saying Brown at 60% after 1%.
Um... polls haven't closed in NH yet.
Dixville Notch results...all five votes there. :P
Lol... bless Fox.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 07:13:05 PM
The rural counties in NH always start reporting very early.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 07:13:25 PM
McConnell will win by 2008 margin.
So what a certain Pennsylvania Republican said. ::)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 04, 2014, 07:13:45 PM
It's probably just a matter of which precincts are in, but McConnell's number suck so far in the Cincinnati burbs. He's barely up in counties that voted >60% for Bunning in 2004.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 07:13:46 PM
ALG outperforming in Campbell and Kenton (Cincy suburbs)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 07:13:55 PM
Fox is saying Brown at 60% after 1%.
Um... polls haven't closed in NH yet.
Dixville Notch results...all five votes there. :P
Lol... bless Fox.
...CNN and Politico have it up as well...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 07:14:03 PM
Brown and Havenstein are both leading -- 3 votes to 2 votes :P
So is Marilinda Garcia, same margin :P
McConnell will win by 2008 margin.
So what a certain Pennsylvania Republican said. ::)
Congrats, Phil!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 07:14:29 PM
McConnell will win by 2008 margin.
So what a certain Pennsylvania Republican said. ::)
Congratulations Phil!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: GaussLaw on November 04, 2014, 07:14:55 PM
5% in IN-2, Bock (D) leading Walorski (R/I) 55-43. I'm sure D parts are reporting first however.
Notre Dame/South Bend area is very Democrat-friendly.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 04, 2014, 07:15:16 PM
Fox is saying Brown at 60% after 1%.
Um... polls haven't closed in NH yet.
Dixville Notch results...all five votes there. :P
Lol... bless Fox.
...CNN and Politico have it up as well...
Did I misread it as having it on the board, or actually talking about it?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 07:15:22 PM
Joe Bock still up 9 on Wacky Jacky with 24% in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 04, 2014, 07:15:26 PM
CBS has exit polls for the races in states where polls have closed:
http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2014/senate/
Georgia exit poll (averaging men and women):
http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2014/senate/georgia/exit/
Perdue 49%
Nunn 48%
Swafford 2.5%
http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2014/senate/
Georgia exit poll (averaging men and women):
http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2014/senate/georgia/exit/
Perdue 49%
Nunn 48%
Swafford 2.5%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: StateBoiler on November 04, 2014, 07:15:37 PM
Shaheen 2142-1857 from Ward 1 of Manchester, NH.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 07:15:43 PM
I'm here, folks. I won't be on IRC, but I'll be on here. I'm surprised CNN called Kentucky immediately. I guess there really was never a race there.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Modernity has failed us on November 04, 2014, 07:15:56 PM
Jeanne Shaheen takes Manchester, NH Ward #1 by about 300 votes
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 07:16:11 PM
Murphy (D) leading 60-40 in FL's 18th so far
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 07:16:26 PM
Shaheen 2142-1857 from Ward 1 of Manchester, NH.
Not good news for Shaheen
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 07:16:31 PM
Graham leads Southerland with over 70% of the vote
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 07:16:33 PM
Where can we get state exit polls from those that are closed? With cross tabs etc
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RR1997 on November 04, 2014, 07:17:20 PM
CNN isn't available on Dish anymore, and I feel really embarrassed that I have to watch Fox News (ugh) for my Election Night coverage.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 04, 2014, 07:17:27 PM
Shaheen 2142-1857 from Ward 1 of Manchester, NH.
Not good news for Shaheen
There's a reason NH has been causing me headaches in the last 12 hours.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Eraserhead on November 04, 2014, 07:17:38 PM
I'm here, folks. I won't be on IRC, but I'll be on here. I'm surprised CNN called Kentucky immediately. I guess there really was never a race there.
Thanks goodness you're here!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 04, 2014, 07:17:50 PM
Virginia exit poll:
Warner 49.5%
Gillespie 47.5%
Warner 49.5%
Gillespie 47.5%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 04, 2014, 07:17:58 PM
They always quietly "fix" the exit polls after the real results are in. It kind of defeats the purpose.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 04, 2014, 07:18:17 PM
Where can we get state exit polls from those that are closed? With cross tabs etc
Here: http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2014/senate/
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 07:18:30 PM
Shaheen 2142-1857 from Ward 1 of Manchester, NH.
Not good news for Shaheen
What should that ward be?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 07:19:02 PM
Shaheen 2142-1857 from Ward 1 of Manchester, NH.
Not good news for Shaheen
There's a reason NH has been causing me headaches in the last 12 hours.
Obama had around 2,700 votes in that ward in 2012
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Brittain33 on November 04, 2014, 07:19:33 PM
The Vorlon has returned. If J.J. comes back, it means R+10.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 04, 2014, 07:20:19 PM
Shaheen 2142-1857 from Ward 1 of Manchester, NH.
Not good news for Shaheen
There's a reason NH has been causing me headaches in the last 12 hours.
Obama had around 2,700 votes in that ward in 2012
The issue isn't raw numbers, it's margin.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 07:20:31 PM
Shaheen 2142-1857 from Ward 1 of Manchester, NH.
Not good news for Shaheen
What should that ward be?
Not too far off from that, but she should probably be getting in the high 2ks, low 3ks in that ward, Brown being close in that race is good for him.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 07:20:36 PM
Where can we get state exit polls from those that are closed? With cross tabs etc
Here: http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2014/senate/
Thanks!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Eraserhead on November 04, 2014, 07:21:03 PM
What happened to Warner? I imagine he'll probably hang on but that is embarrassing.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Brittain33 on November 04, 2014, 07:21:18 PM
Shaheen 2142-1857 from Ward 1 of Manchester, NH.
Not good news for Shaheen
What should that ward be?
Not too far off from that, but she should probably be getting in the high 2ks, low 3ks in that ward.
She lost it in 2008.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 04, 2014, 07:21:26 PM
The Vorlon has returned. If J.J. comes back, it means R+10.
J.J. has already posted today.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: BaconBacon96 on November 04, 2014, 07:21:48 PM
What happened to Warner? I imagine he'll probably hang on but that is embarrassing.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Brittain33 on November 04, 2014, 07:22:07 PM
The Vorlon has returned. If J.J. comes back, it means R+10.
J.J. has already posted today.
Crap. Congrats, Sen. Tillis.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 04, 2014, 07:22:33 PM
What happened to Warner? I imagine he'll probably hang on but that is embarrassing.
Low-interest race I assume.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 07:23:02 PM
KY-06 has been called for Barr
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 07:25:02 PM
CNN is obsessed with the "former pizza delivery guy" in NC.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 07:25:19 PM
With 23% in, Bock still leads Walorski 53-45. With less than 1% in, Corrine Brown is losing 40-60 :P
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ilikeverin on November 04, 2014, 07:25:23 PM
With <1% of results in, Florida results look good for Dems so far...?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Seattle on November 04, 2014, 07:25:27 PM
Lol, with 10% in IN-7, Mayo is leading.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: You kip if you want to... on November 04, 2014, 07:25:45 PM
What've I missed in Indiana 7th?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 04, 2014, 07:25:46 PM
Best I can tell, the Kentucky exit is McConnell +7, in line with the RCP polling average.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Iosif on November 04, 2014, 07:25:54 PM
The Vorlon has returned. If J.J. comes back, it means R+10.
Haha yes. Out of the woodwork like clockwork.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 07:27:48 PM
With <1% of results in, Florida results look good for Dems so far...?
Lots of early vote from Broward and Palm Beach, the Crist margin should slim over the night.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Eraserhead on November 04, 2014, 07:27:59 PM
CNN is obsessed with the "former pizza delivery guy" in NC.
Yeah I noticed that. Weird.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: user12345 on November 04, 2014, 07:28:20 PM
Lol, with 10% in IN-7, Mayo is leading.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 07:28:59 PM
Gillespie 58-39 with 2%. I know with VA, R precincts always report, but I wasn't expecting it to be this close.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on November 04, 2014, 07:29:10 PM
Gwen Graham running 3-4% ahead of Obama, but its early.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 04, 2014, 07:29:12 PM
AOSHQDD has called Virginia for Warner.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Phony Moderate on November 04, 2014, 07:29:31 PM
CNN isn't available on Dish anymore, and I feel really embarrassed that I have to watch Fox News (ugh) for my Election Night coverage.
Down a few. It'll help.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: NewYorkExpress on November 04, 2014, 07:30:22 PM
CNN calls for Moore Capito
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 07:30:34 PM
CNN projection: NC is too close.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 07:30:39 PM
Exit poll shows:
SC
Hutto 42
Graham 51
Ravenel 5
Dickerson 40
Scott 59
CNN projects Capito wins! R+1
SC
Hutto 42
Graham 51
Ravenel 5
Dickerson 40
Scott 59
CNN projects Capito wins! R+1
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Modernity has failed us on November 04, 2014, 07:30:53 PM
Shelley Moore Capito wins WV.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on November 04, 2014, 07:31:01 PM
AOS calls VA for Warner.
At least one in the Mark Caucus will stick around...
At least one in the Mark Caucus will stick around...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 07:31:23 PM
Republican gain in WV. No shock.
Congrats to Shelley Moore Capito. First female Senator from WVA per Fox.
NC - Senate too close to call.
Congrats to Shelley Moore Capito. First female Senator from WVA per Fox.
NC - Senate too close to call.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 07:31:42 PM
Exit poll in GA:
Nunn 49
Perdue 48
Swafford 3
Nunn 49
Perdue 48
Swafford 3
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 07:32:03 PM
Exit poll shows Hagan up 49% to 46%. Shocking. :P
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 07:32:15 PM
Exit poll in NC:
Hagan 49
Tillis 46
Hagan 49
Tillis 46
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Eraserhead on November 04, 2014, 07:32:25 PM
Hagan +3 in NC. Praise Allah!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 07:32:28 PM
MSNBC's graphics are so good, but I don't think I can deal with Mathews and Maddow.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 07:32:34 PM
Magic number is down to 5.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Brittain33 on November 04, 2014, 07:33:03 PM
If we lose the Senate but hold NH and NC, I'll be content.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on November 04, 2014, 07:33:25 PM
James Hohmann @jameshohmann 50s51 seconds ago
The network exit polls have Kay Hagan up 3 points (49-46) in North Carolina.
The network exit polls have Kay Hagan up 3 points (49-46) in North Carolina.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 04, 2014, 07:33:36 PM
Exit poll shows:
SC
Hutto 42
Graham 51
Ravenel 5
Dickerson 40
Scott 59
CNN projects Capito wins! R+1
SC
Hutto 42
Graham 51
Ravenel 5
Dickerson 40
Scott 59
CNN projects Capito wins! R+1
If the Graham race does end up that close, Dems were dumb for not contesting it. Dems can get to 45% easily in SC, boost Ravenel a bit through SuperPACS, and maybe...?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 04, 2014, 07:33:43 PM
Grimes did really crappy in Lexington. It's almost all in too.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: BaconBacon96 on November 04, 2014, 07:33:51 PM
Hagan +3 in NC. Praise Allah!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: You kip if you want to... on November 04, 2014, 07:34:35 PM
CNN isn't available on Dish anymore, and I feel really embarrassed that I have to watch Fox News (ugh) for my Election Night coverage.
Down a few. It'll help.
http://www.livestation.com/en/cnni
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 07:34:46 PM
Shaheen 53.5-46.5 to Brown with still <1% in
Little to nothing out of Georgia senate still.
Shea-Porter slightly leading Guinta with little to nothing in.
Little to nothing out of Georgia senate still.
Shea-Porter slightly leading Guinta with little to nothing in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 04, 2014, 07:35:03 PM
Exit poll shows:
SC
Hutto 42
Graham 51
Ravenel 5
Dickerson 40
Scott 59
CNN projects Capito wins! R+1
SC
Hutto 42
Graham 51
Ravenel 5
Dickerson 40
Scott 59
CNN projects Capito wins! R+1
If the Graham race does end up that close, Dems were dumb for not contesting it. Dems can get to 45% easily in SC, boost Ravenel a bit through SuperPACS, and maybe...?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: JohnCA246 on November 04, 2014, 07:36:45 PM
So in the county graphs on Huffington Post http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/results (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/results), to make sure, the GOP want counties to be above the line in the graph right? That means they are performing better there than they did in 2012?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 04, 2014, 07:36:52 PM
Exit poll shows:
SC
Hutto 42
Graham 51
Ravenel 5
Dickerson 40
Scott 59
CNN projects Capito wins! R+1
SC
Hutto 42
Graham 51
Ravenel 5
Dickerson 40
Scott 59
CNN projects Capito wins! R+1
If the Graham race does end up that close, Dems were dumb for not contesting it. Dems can get to 45% easily in SC, boost Ravenel a bit through SuperPACS, and maybe...?
Yes, that's why I said to use shady SuperPACs to boost Ravenel. He was siphoning Tea Partiers off of Graham, I doubt any Democrats were voting for him.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 07:37:24 PM
First results in NC (less than 1%) have Tillis ahead 58-35. Haugh is sitting at 7%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Holmes on November 04, 2014, 07:38:04 PM
Exit poll shows:
SC
Hutto 42
Graham 51
Ravenel 5
Dickerson 40
Scott 59
CNN projects Capito wins! R+1
SC
Hutto 42
Graham 51
Ravenel 5
Dickerson 40
Scott 59
CNN projects Capito wins! R+1
If the Graham race does end up that close, Dems were dumb for not contesting it. Dems can get to 45% easily in SC, boost Ravenel a bit through SuperPACS, and maybe...?
Dems can get to 45% easily in South Carolina, but 46%? 47%? 50%? Impossible.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Sol on November 04, 2014, 07:38:55 PM
First results in NC (less than 1%) have Tillis ahead 58-35. Haugh is sitting at 7%
It's Alleghany County though.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 07:39:10 PM
Polls in New Hampshire close in 20 minutes :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 04, 2014, 07:39:14 PM
Exit poll shows:
SC
Hutto 42
Graham 51
Ravenel 5
Dickerson 40
Scott 59
CNN projects Capito wins! R+1
SC
Hutto 42
Graham 51
Ravenel 5
Dickerson 40
Scott 59
CNN projects Capito wins! R+1
If the Graham race does end up that close, Dems were dumb for not contesting it. Dems can get to 45% easily in SC, boost Ravenel a bit through SuperPACS, and maybe...?
Dems can get to 45% easily in South Carolina, but 46%? 47%? 50%? Impossible.
I didn't say Dems could get above 45%. But if you boosted Ravenel enough to siphon off more Tea Partiers from Graham (he got 5% just on his own, apparently) 45% could have been enough to win.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 07:41:33 PM
With 34% in, McConnell has a 13 point lead 55-42.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 07:42:17 PM
Virginia 56-41 with 8% in
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 07:42:18 PM
If these numbers are representative of the county as a whole ...
()
It looks like the Dems are going to have a very, very long night.
()
It looks like the Dems are going to have a very, very long night.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on November 04, 2014, 07:43:12 PM
Lots left, but Hagan winning (what looks like) the early vote 55/40 in Watauga. Good if it holds up.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 04, 2014, 07:43:39 PM
Kentucky is still the best at counting votes. Too bad you voted for Mitch McConnell gross WTF
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Holmes on November 04, 2014, 07:44:01 PM
If these numbers are representative of the county as a whole ...
()
It looks like the Dems are going to have a very, very long night.
()
It looks like the Dems are going to have a very, very long night.
Torie, it's 2% in. Please find some chill.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 04, 2014, 07:44:34 PM
If these numbers are representative of the county as a whole ...
()
It looks like the Dems are going to have a very, very long night.
()
It looks like the Dems are going to have a very, very long night.
The most Republican parts of VA report first. You'd think people would learn this by now.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 07:45:27 PM
Virginia Foxx losing. Less than 1% in, of course
EDIT: In other sure-thing-looks-weird-when-there're-few-votes-in news, Corrine Brown, who was losing earlier, has been declared the winner
EDIT: In other sure-thing-looks-weird-when-there're-few-votes-in news, Corrine Brown, who was losing earlier, has been declared the winner
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 7,052,770 on November 04, 2014, 07:46:19 PM
They really shouldn't even release a county total until it's all in. Who cares what the "numbers" are when they're at 2%?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Phony Moderate on November 04, 2014, 07:46:23 PM
Lol Joe Manchin sounding like Ted Cruz
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 04, 2014, 07:46:50 PM
Polls in New Hampshire close in 20 minutes :)
Time to kill off Scott Brown once and for all
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: H. Ross Peron on November 04, 2014, 07:47:23 PM
What's going on with IN-7?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ilikeverin on November 04, 2014, 07:48:11 PM
CNN has like 40% more vote in than HuffPo in Florida? ???
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Kushahontas on November 04, 2014, 07:48:16 PM
What's going on with IN-7?
was just about to ask...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 04, 2014, 07:48:20 PM
They really shouldn't even release a county total until it's all in. Who cares what the "numbers" are when they're at 2%?
A lot of people here at least
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Holmes on November 04, 2014, 07:48:28 PM
Virginia Foxx losing. Less than 1% in, of course
If that is representative of the country as a whole, it's gonna be a long night for Republicans...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Eraserhead on November 04, 2014, 07:48:38 PM
Lol Joe Manchin sounding like Ted Cruz
Yep, gross.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 04, 2014, 07:49:01 PM
Virginia Foxx losing. Less than 1% in, of course
If that is representative of the country as a whole, it's gonna be a long night for Republicans...
LOL
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on November 04, 2014, 07:49:30 PM
Charlotte Observer @theobserver 4m4 minutes ago
With 391,397 votes in, Hagan, Tillis both at 48%. #ncsen
With 391,397 votes in, Hagan, Tillis both at 48%. #ncsen
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 07:49:40 PM
Gillespie leads by 10 with 18%. Warner wins by Obama '08 margin.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Modernity has failed us on November 04, 2014, 07:49:46 PM
If these numbers are representative of the county as a whole ...
()
It looks like the Dems are going to have a very, very long night.
()
It looks like the Dems are going to have a very, very long night.
UGH.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 04, 2014, 07:50:01 PM
I hope you guys all took a shot when Capito was projected the winner
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 07:50:07 PM
With 15% reporting, Murphy is still exceeding 60% in FL-18. With 51% reporting, Walorski has taken the lead from Bock and in fact is now leading by double-digits, 55-42
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 07:50:08 PM
Shaheen 57-43 so far, but mostly Concord and Manchester reporting.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Nichlemn on November 04, 2014, 07:50:26 PM
Charlotte Observer @theobserver 4m4 minutes ago
With 391,397 votes in, Hagan, Tillis both at 48%. #ncsen
With 391,397 votes in, Hagan, Tillis both at 48%. #ncsen
Is what's reported D-friendly or R-friendly, or unknown?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 07:51:19 PM
Shaheen 57-43 so far, but mostly Concord and Manchester reporting.
He is running up a close margin in Manchester, good news.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: You kip if you want to... on November 04, 2014, 07:51:22 PM
What've I missed in Indiana 7th?
Seriously, who on earth is this Chris Mayo guy ahead in the 7th!?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Phony Moderate on November 04, 2014, 07:51:27 PM
VA is all over place. Warner outperforming Obama in some counties, Gillespie outperforming Romney in others. Probably points to a modest Warner win.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 04, 2014, 07:51:30 PM
What's going on with IN-7?
Yeah, what in god's name? The third party candidate is leading, and the Republican has only 4% of the vote.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: NewYorkExpress on November 04, 2014, 07:51:56 PM
About 1% in, but Sanford Bishop is down 51-49, and John Barrow is down is 60-40.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Sol on November 04, 2014, 07:52:01 PM
Charlotte Observer @theobserver 4m4 minutes ago
With 391,397 votes in, Hagan, Tillis both at 48%. #ncsen
With 391,397 votes in, Hagan, Tillis both at 48%. #ncsen
Is what's reported D-friendly or R-friendly, or unknown?
It's mostly somewhat R-friendly rural territory at this point.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 07:52:19 PM
Exit polls suggest Capito leads 59-39
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 07:52:26 PM
Hagan is nicely overperforming Obama 12. GA, NH are mixed news.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: user12345 on November 04, 2014, 07:52:31 PM
What's going on with IN-7?
was just about to ask...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Modernity has failed us on November 04, 2014, 07:53:23 PM
I hope you guys all took a shot when Capito was projected the winner
I'm gonna be taking water shots all night lol
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 04, 2014, 07:54:04 PM
They really shouldn't even release a county total until it's all in. Who cares what the "numbers" are when they're at 2%?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: You kip if you want to... on November 04, 2014, 07:54:05 PM
The Libertarian Party getting their first win of anything important in over a decade is surely a big deal, right?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPC on November 04, 2014, 07:54:33 PM
The Libertarian Party getting their first win of anything important in over a decade is surely a big deal, right?
Which office are you referring to?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 07:54:51 PM
Poor Grimes.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 7,052,770 on November 04, 2014, 07:55:03 PM
MSNBC saying it looks good for Hagan.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: NewYorkExpress on November 04, 2014, 07:55:29 PM
With 1% in Joe Wilson is down 55-44, Mick Mulvaney is trailing 52-48, and Jim Clyburn is trailing 55-44 (though that has less than 1% in).
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: You kip if you want to... on November 04, 2014, 07:55:57 PM
The Libertarian Party getting their first win of anything important in over a decade is surely a big deal, right?
Which office are you referring to?
Indiana 7th.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 04, 2014, 07:56:01 PM
For no particular reason, I'd like to see a grand total House votes box for each party. It'd be fun to cheer on my side.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Nichlemn on November 04, 2014, 07:56:29 PM
The Libertarian Party getting their first win of anything important in over a decade is surely a big deal, right?
Which office are you referring to?
Indiana 7th.
Indianapolis? Seems kind of a weird place for a Libertarian to win.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: You kip if you want to... on November 04, 2014, 07:56:31 PM
For no particular reason, I'd like to see a grand total House votes box for each party. It's be fun to cheer on my side.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/results/house
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 04, 2014, 07:56:39 PM
She did about as well as one could expect considering the circumstances. I'm glad she at least took a chance with this race and managed to strike fear into the heart of McConnell for a bit.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 07:56:53 PM
IN-02 called for Walorski (R)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: publicunofficial on November 04, 2014, 07:56:58 PM
Patrick Murphy has been declared the winner in FL-18. Not a surprise, but the fact that it was declared so quickly is a good sign for Dems in FL.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 07:58:39 PM
In FL-26, Curbelo is 51.5-48.5 over Garcia (D) - 10% in
In FL-02, Graham is 59-41 over Southerland (R) - 8% in
In FL-02, Graham is 59-41 over Southerland (R) - 8% in
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 04, 2014, 07:59:51 PM
Here come the 7:00 results.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 07:59:51 PM
NC House races all look as expected -- Foxx has regained her lead. SC House races look ten kinds of ed
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 08:00:34 PM
The Libertarian Party getting their first win of anything important in over a decade is surely a big deal, right?
Which office are you referring to?
Indiana 7th.
It's a typo. From the SoS, the Democrat leads. Her Republican challenger.
http://www.in.gov/apps/sos/election/general/general2014?page=district&countyID=-1&officeID=5&districtID=7&candidate=
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: StateBoiler on November 04, 2014, 08:00:40 PM
must be a software error at the Huffington Post, per the Indianapolis Star:
http://interactives.indystar.com/elections/2014/general/results/index.php
http://interactives.indystar.com/elections/2014/general/results/index.php
Quote
U.s. Representative District 7 (Vote for not more than 1 , 229 out of 457 precincts counted.)
Andre Carson 25,055 (50.71%)
Catherine (cat) Ping 22,397 (45.33%)
Chris Mayo 1,915 (3.88%)
Write-in 40 (.08%)
Andre Carson 25,055 (50.71%)
Catherine (cat) Ping 22,397 (45.33%)
Chris Mayo 1,915 (3.88%)
Write-in 40 (.08%)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Nichlemn on November 04, 2014, 08:00:42 PM
What's everyone's overall read so far? From what I can see it's neutral to slightly Rep favoured, relative to expectations.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 04, 2014, 08:01:09 PM
Gillespie continues to go down faster than a Thai hooker. At 52% now
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rob in cal on November 04, 2014, 08:01:18 PM
Wonder if something was up with the GOP candidate in In 7, and most GOP voters migrated to Chris Mayo, or if this is a misprint.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on November 04, 2014, 08:01:22 PM
Joy Pullmann @JoyPullmann 1m1 minute ago
RT @henryolsenEPPC: More bad GOP news: Tillis -8 % off Romney in huge Wake Cty (Raleigh). 96k votes, too. #NCSEN #FDRLST
Geaux Kay!
RT @henryolsenEPPC: More bad GOP news: Tillis -8 % off Romney in huge Wake Cty (Raleigh). 96k votes, too. #NCSEN #FDRLST
Geaux Kay!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 08:02:03 PM
Cochran
Collins
Sessions
Inhofe
Lankford
Lamar
Markey
Booker
All win according to CNN
Collins
Sessions
Inhofe
Lankford
Lamar
Markey
Booker
All win according to CNN
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: NewYorkExpress on November 04, 2014, 08:02:14 PM
CNN projects victories for Susan Collins, Thad Cocharn, Jeff Sessions, Lamar Alexandar, James Inhofe, Cory Booker, Ed Markey, and James Lankford.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 08:02:20 PM
No projection in Rhode Island?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 08:02:29 PM
Bunch of expected calls for senate races. This batch at 8:00 PM EST has the most non-competitive races of the cycle.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 08:03:17 PM
Exit polls
Shaheen 52
Brown 48
Shaheen 52
Brown 48
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 08:03:35 PM
No projection in Rhode Island?
They don't close till 9:00
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 08:05:27 PM
Shaheen will win by about 6
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: JohnCA246 on November 04, 2014, 08:06:12 PM
Quick question, if a race is "called earlier than thought," with 0%, does that just mean exit polls were more lopsided than thought, they see actual returns we don't see, or are they basing their projection on poll averages over the last week, and therefore it isn't surprising?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 08:07:54 PM
First it was 3% in, now 8%. No change in the numbers yet. Warner had better hope there will be.
()
In other news, the Pub in VA-10 in NOVA is trashing the Dem so far in early vote numbers.
()
In other news, the Pub in VA-10 in NOVA is trashing the Dem so far in early vote numbers.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mehmentum on November 04, 2014, 08:08:08 PM
Nunn is getting absolutely clobbered so far.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 08:08:43 PM
Nunn is getting absolutely clobbered so far.
Not shocking, urban counties and Atlanta metro come in last.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: StateBoiler on November 04, 2014, 08:08:48 PM
Quick question, if a race is "called earlier than thought," with 0%, does that just mean exit polls were more lopsided than thought, they see actual returns we don't see, or are they basing their projection on poll averages over the last week, and therefore it isn't surprising?
Normally it's based on exit polling in certain locations and they base it off the past election results. For example, if a candidate won an election 2 years ago 60-40 and you're in precincts that was split 50-50 then, if 2 years later you see the same candidate won the same precincts 55-45, and you now extrapolate that to a statewide basis, you can see who won.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 08:08:51 PM
Nunn is getting absolutely clobbered so far.
Nothing out of Atlanta yet
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Sol on November 04, 2014, 08:08:58 PM
First it was 3% in, now 8%. No change in the numbers yet. Warner had better hope there will be.
()
()
You are aware that the rural west of the county reports first, right?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Flake on November 04, 2014, 08:10:06 PM
If the Libertarian wins in IN-07....
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Suburbia on November 04, 2014, 08:10:26 PM
I think that Warner's leading, but it's very close.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Eraserhead on November 04, 2014, 08:10:45 PM
Hagan is giving Tillis a good spanking.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mehmentum on November 04, 2014, 08:11:14 PM
Both Hagan and Shaheen are doing very well. No perfect 'strike' for the GOP this year.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: King on November 04, 2014, 08:11:24 PM
BREAKING NEWS: Coco oversalted the mashed potatoes on tonight's Master Chef Junior and broke down crying. Gordon Ramsay has pulled her aside for a talk as they cut to commercial.
Will continue to update this breaking story.
Will continue to update this breaking story.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 08:11:54 PM
Nunn is getting absolutely clobbered so far.
Nothing from Atlanta, Athens, Savannah, Columbus, Augusta - basically, from anything resembling an urban area - so far.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: JohnCA246 on November 04, 2014, 08:12:07 PM
Quote
Normally it's based on exit polling in certain locations and they base it off the past election results. For example, if a candidate won an election 2 years ago 60-40 and you're in precincts that was split 50-50 then, if 2 years later you see the same candidate won the same precincts 55-45, and you now extrapolate that to a statewide basis, you can see who won.
Thanks!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr. Smith on November 04, 2014, 08:12:31 PM
Damn it, Gillespie...leading?!? I...I...can't believe this.
Then again Terry McAuliffe looked out at about this point too, took into almost midnight. But still....the map should be all Atlasian Red for Warner :O
Then again Terry McAuliffe looked out at about this point too, took into almost midnight. But still....the map should be all Atlasian Red for Warner :O
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 08:12:36 PM
Kuster is up with over 60% of the vote. New Hampshire should close from where it is right now
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 08:13:38 PM
First it was 3% in, now 8%. No change in the numbers yet. Warner had better hope there will be.
()
()
You are aware that the rural west of the county reports first, right?
No.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 08:15:13 PM
Gillespie still 52-45.5 with 42% in. This is two times in a row where people seriously underestimated Republicans in the state.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Modernity has failed us on November 04, 2014, 08:15:36 PM
Who the hell is Chris Mayo
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on November 04, 2014, 08:16:27 PM
BREAKING NEWS: Coco oversalted the mashed potatoes on tonight's Master Chef Junior and broke down crying. Gordon Ramsay has pulled her aside for a talk as they cut to commercial.
Will continue to update this breaking story.
Will continue to update this breaking story.
You know its bad when Gordon needs to give you a pep-talk
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 08:16:27 PM
Who the hell is Chris Mayo
Possibly, a typo.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: BaconBacon96 on November 04, 2014, 08:16:43 PM
Chris Mayo is a false alarm, I suspect.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 08:17:11 PM
In Kansas, Greg Orman has an early 50-47 lead with 1% in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 08:18:59 PM
With less than 1% in Huelskamp is losing by 12 points!!! :o
STOP THE COUNT!
STOP THE COUNT!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 08:19:54 PM
In Kansas, Greg Orman has an early 50-47 lead with 1% in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: publicunofficial on November 04, 2014, 08:20:37 PM
Grimes finished her concession speech, sounds like we haven't seen the last of her.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 08:20:58 PM
With less than 1% in Huelskamp is losing by 12 points!!! :o
STOP THE COUNT!
STOP THE COUNT!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 08:21:31 PM
Grimes finished her concession speech, sounds like we haven't seen the last of her.
I am afraid, she would be well-advised to move then.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 08:22:06 PM
4%, Perdue 59-40. Why is Georgia taking forever to count?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 08:22:56 PM
Given the trends, Dems will hold NH and NC.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Eraserhead on November 04, 2014, 08:24:00 PM
Given the trends, Dems will hold NH and NC.
Glorious news!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 08:24:33 PM
Warner in early returns is not doing very well in NOVA - at all. Gillespie is winning Prince William county too with about 13% in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 08:25:09 PM
Tisei, Casey, Guinta, Jenkins, all lead. Tim Huelskamp and Filemon Vela are losing -- probably not for long
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 04, 2014, 08:25:53 PM
Dems currently winning WV-02 but trailing in WV-03, lol.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 08:26:06 PM
Given the trends, Dems will hold NH and NC.
Glorious news!
Not surprised by this at all. Coming into the evening, I thought the Republicans would win most races, but NH and NC were not going to be among them.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPC on November 04, 2014, 08:26:38 PM
Who the hell is Chris Mayo
Possibly, a typo.
http://interactives.indystar.com/elections/2014/general/results/index.php
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 08:27:06 PM
With 3% in, Kevin Wade leads Chris Coons 54-44. Also probably not for long
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 08:28:04 PM
What happened to the Libertarian in IN-07? Now there's one leading in TX-34?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 08:28:52 PM
Almost half in and Gillespie still 52-46
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPC on November 04, 2014, 08:29:00 PM
What happened to the Libertarian in IN-07? Now there's one leading in TX-34?
They mixed up the Libertarian, Democrat, and Republican.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 08:29:39 PM
FL-02: Graham 55%, Southerland 45% with 58% in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Nichlemn on November 04, 2014, 08:30:08 PM
538 just said Cotton won Arkansas (ticked over in the big box, up to 80% GOP win now)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 04, 2014, 08:30:12 PM
McConnell sounds very respectful in his victory speech.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 08:30:22 PM
CNN calls Arkansas
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 08:30:39 PM
Cotton in AR. R+2 now.
Expected.
Expected.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 08:30:39 PM
Tom Cotton has won. Wow
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 08:30:47 PM
Magic number is down to 4. Goodbye Mark Pryor.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 08:30:48 PM
Cotton projected by Fox. So did Hutchinson for Gov.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 08:31:02 PM
Damn Cotton wins!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: You kip if you want to... on November 04, 2014, 08:31:07 PM
AR called as polls close. Argh, harsh.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 04, 2014, 08:31:08 PM
Called for Cotton at the bell. Take a shot gentlemen.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 04, 2014, 08:31:34 PM
Tom Cotton has won. Wow
Wow?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Eraserhead on November 04, 2014, 08:31:52 PM
Not exactly a surprise.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RR1997 on November 04, 2014, 08:32:23 PM
CNN has called Arkansas for Cotton.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rob in cal on November 04, 2014, 08:32:30 PM
With Virginia, hardly anything from Richmond or Fairfax is in, this should demolish Gillespie lead.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 04, 2014, 08:32:40 PM
Tom Cotton has won. Wow
Wow?
Wow!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 08:32:48 PM
Reed
Durbin
win by CNN
Durbin
win by CNN
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: JohnCA246 on November 04, 2014, 08:33:00 PM
So far no surprises...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 04, 2014, 08:33:17 PM
Looks like IN-7 was a typo the entire time. Carson now narrowly leads the Republican.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 08:33:21 PM
RIP Blue dogs.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 04, 2014, 08:33:28 PM
McConnell literally saying Republicans are on YOUR side. So sad that people get taken in by these traitors.
EDIT: What the hell is he talking about with turning things around? I didn't know that getting thousands more people covered in his state and years of continued job creation weren't part of turning things around. He wants that Majority Leadership so bad so he can get started on destroying the country again.
EDIT: What the hell is he talking about with turning things around? I didn't know that getting thousands more people covered in his state and years of continued job creation weren't part of turning things around. He wants that Majority Leadership so bad so he can get started on destroying the country again.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 08:33:55 PM
VA-11 is surprisingly close, only 50-48 D.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 04, 2014, 08:34:09 PM
Good.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 08:34:44 PM
Good.
Bummer...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 7,052,770 on November 04, 2014, 08:35:02 PM
McConnell literally saying Republicans are on YOUR side. So sad that people get taken in by these traitors.
He really is blathering a bunch of nonsense -- yes, Democratic policies are taking away people's health insurance, not giving it to them ::)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: You kip if you want to... on November 04, 2014, 08:35:17 PM
Story of the night, GOP making gains in their own backyard, failing to make any headway in places that they need to win if they want to beat Hillary in 2016.
They've even fallen back in crucial states like North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania, with Wisconsin and Michigan remaining to be seen.
They've even fallen back in crucial states like North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania, with Wisconsin and Michigan remaining to be seen.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 08:35:43 PM
With Virginia, hardly anything from Richmond or Fairfax is in, this should demolish Gillespie lead.
Might. But the (absolute) gap is growing - he needs to make up 70 thousand votes now. Not impossible, but for the first time it starts looking interesting indeed.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 08:36:20 PM
How are the areas in and around Augusta and Columbus, GA doing?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Phony Moderate on November 04, 2014, 08:36:33 PM
McConnell: "There is so much good that we can and should do for Americans."
Yes, like installing a socialist state.
Yes, like installing a socialist state.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 04, 2014, 08:36:40 PM
McConnell is up 15 with 64% in - and fairly representative of the state. The early Kentucky Exits had him up by 7. The RCP average had him up by 7.2. Interesting.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: sg0508 on November 04, 2014, 08:37:28 PM
Northern VA always comes in late. Warner will blow by him, but it won't be very comfortable.
I'm still very interested in GA.
I'm still very interested in GA.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 08:37:52 PM
Story of the night, GOP making gains in their own backyard, failing to make any headway in places that they need to win if they want to beat Hillary in 2016.
They've even fallen back in crucial states like North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania, with Wisconsin and Michigan remaining to be seen.
They've even fallen back in crucial states like North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania, with Wisconsin and Michigan remaining to be seen.
PA/FL are not really in play. AR has been leaning, but now seems to solidly in the back yard now.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rob in cal on November 04, 2014, 08:38:26 PM
Richmond city is now half in, Gillespie still keeping his margin, hmmm.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 04, 2014, 08:38:30 PM
Good.
Bummer...
Sorry bro, but I don't want conservative Democrats having a legitimate faction in my party. I'm far, far to the left of you and I frankly don't want our agenda shifted anymore to the center than it already is.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 08:38:57 PM
Wolf wins!!!! Looks like Santorum et al have company.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: JohnCA246 on November 04, 2014, 08:39:01 PM
Lol I love elections so much and hate politics just as much, if that makes nay sense. I love the process and hate what comes out...reverse sausage making lol.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RI on November 04, 2014, 08:40:17 PM
RI: Fung 39, Raimondo 34, Healey 26 (4% in)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 08:40:47 PM
GA: 61-38 with 9% in. Still waiting on any Atlanta metro vote.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 08:41:25 PM
Richmond city is now half in, Gillespie still keeping his margin, hmmm.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Holmes on November 04, 2014, 08:42:31 PM
Landrieu's probably toast too, then.
I wonder, considering Pennsylvania's recent trends of throwing out incumbent Republicans, if Toomey should be worried. I always saw him as a rather safe incumbent, but who knows.
I wonder, considering Pennsylvania's recent trends of throwing out incumbent Republicans, if Toomey should be worried. I always saw him as a rather safe incumbent, but who knows.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 04, 2014, 08:42:44 PM
Ok Warner, time to move...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Nichlemn on November 04, 2014, 08:42:51 PM
Shaheen wins (according to 538 box)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mehmentum on November 04, 2014, 08:42:56 PM
Orman is exactly 100 votes ahead of Roberts, with 8% in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 08:43:06 PM
Wade 53-45 with 10% in Delaware, lol
Capito is crushing Tennant 61-36 with 18% in so far
Hagan retains a 7 point lead 52-45 with 14% in.
Capito is crushing Tennant 61-36 with 18% in so far
Hagan retains a 7 point lead 52-45 with 14% in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: InquilineKea on November 04, 2014, 08:43:18 PM
to be fair, Obama was behind in Virginia til the very end.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr. Smith on November 04, 2014, 08:44:29 PM
Same thing with Terry McAuliffe last year
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 08:44:39 PM
The house PV is R+17. It's clear that democratic areas haven't really come in yet.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mehmentum on November 04, 2014, 08:44:42 PM
to be fair, Obama was behind in Virginia til the very end.
Still, its closer than it should have been. I blame it on abysmal turnout.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: StateBoiler on November 04, 2014, 08:45:15 PM
I'm really liking CNN's election coverage tonight.
Looking at the North Carolina county map on CNN, Hagan will win that race.
Looking at the North Carolina county map on CNN, Hagan will win that race.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Yank2133 on November 04, 2014, 08:45:26 PM
Scott Brown is toast.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Zanas on November 04, 2014, 08:47:43 PM
Okay I'm officially starting to worry about VA Sen. I know Dems always climb up in the very end, but it is starting to be worrying.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 08:47:55 PM
Hays and Witt both lead, with less than 1% in. Still no House pickups called anywhere.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 04, 2014, 08:48:02 PM
Scott Brown is toast.
The carpet is seared and his bag of poo is burning away from the Democratic porch.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 08:48:17 PM
WV-2: Mooney (R) 48-44
WV-3: Jenkins (R) 56-44
WV-3: Jenkins (R) 56-44
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rob in cal on November 04, 2014, 08:48:53 PM
Fairfax only 37% in, so hope for Warner.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Badger on November 04, 2014, 08:50:01 PM
Looks like IN-7 was a typo the entire time. Carson now narrowly leads the Republican.
His mother and he both have chronically underperformed inn races.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 08:50:27 PM
NH-1: 50-50 with 23% in
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: King on November 04, 2014, 08:50:38 PM
UPDATE: Despite her earlier outburst, Coco has rebounded to impress Graham Elliot with her fried chicken entree.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rob in cal on November 04, 2014, 08:51:56 PM
Roberts doing a little better than Brownback, a good sign for him.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 08:52:52 PM
With 50% in, Comstock is leading Foust 59-39. I know late results in VA are very D but I'm pretty sure this can be called for Comstock at this point
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 08:53:14 PM
There's going to be a LONG discussion about Virginia after tonight. Warner will definitely win, but it will within single digits easily.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 08:53:26 PM
I'd be surprised if Roberts wins.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Nichlemn on November 04, 2014, 08:53:57 PM
538: Perdue outperforming Chambliss in vast majority of counties (Chambliss got 49.8% in 2008 first round)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 08:53:58 PM
An 'other' in TX-34 is drawing 21% of the vote. Vela should ultimately be safe; he's leading 52-26
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mehmentum on November 04, 2014, 08:54:25 PM
Essentially all of the conservative counties in Virginia are in.
We're still waiting for 2/3rds of Fairfax, half of Richmond and Norfolk, plus quite a bit in other Democratic leaning areas like Newport News, Virginia Beach, and Suffolk.
We're still waiting for 2/3rds of Fairfax, half of Richmond and Norfolk, plus quite a bit in other Democratic leaning areas like Newport News, Virginia Beach, and Suffolk.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 04, 2014, 08:55:28 PM
I was confused about Coons down by 10 with 12% in until I saw New Castle has yet to report
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 08:56:30 PM
Looks very ominous for the Dems in the House based on early returns. The Dems got good news with Murphy in Florida (the guy who beat that black conservative former military officer, whose name escapes me at the moment), and may nab FL-02, but other than that, it looks bad. Dold has a small lead in !L-10. Garcia looks to be losing in Florida. Comstock is romping to victory in VA-10, part of what appears to be some sort of Pub NOVA resurgence, etc.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 04, 2014, 08:56:32 PM
Landrieu's probably toast too, then.
I wonder, considering Pennsylvania's recent trends of throwing out incumbent Republicans, if Toomey should be worried. I always saw him as a rather safe incumbent, but who knows.
I wonder, considering Pennsylvania's recent trends of throwing out incumbent Republicans, if Toomey should be worried. I always saw him as a rather safe incumbent, but who knows.
If Toomey were the GOP candidate, the Governorship would not have been lost.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 08:58:46 PM
Haha net gain of D+1 in the house so far.
Edit: on huffpo
Edit: on huffpo
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Holmes on November 04, 2014, 09:00:11 PM
Landrieu's probably toast too, then.
I wonder, considering Pennsylvania's recent trends of throwing out incumbent Republicans, if Toomey should be worried. I always saw him as a rather safe incumbent, but who knows.
I wonder, considering Pennsylvania's recent trends of throwing out incumbent Republicans, if Toomey should be worried. I always saw him as a rather safe incumbent, but who knows.
If Toomey were the GOP candidate, the Governorship would not have been lost.
I think if anyone other than Corbet were the GOP candidate, the governorship wouldn't have been lost. Or it would've been a better fight.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 09:00:28 PM
Rounds projected winner in SD per Fox. R+3
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 04, 2014, 09:00:30 PM
Finally made it.
Feels like missing part of a good show.
Feels like missing part of a good show.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RR1997 on November 04, 2014, 09:00:34 PM
SD called for Rounds.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 09:00:36 PM
Rounds wins R +1
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RR1997 on November 04, 2014, 09:01:26 PM
Michigan called for Peters.
TX called for Cornyn.
MN called for Franken.
TX called for Cornyn.
MN called for Franken.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 09:01:29 PM
Gary Peters wins
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 09:01:31 PM
Texas
Peters
Delaware
all win per CNN
Peters
Delaware
all win per CNN
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 09:01:58 PM
Sasse wins
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 09:02:45 PM
Shaheen projected winner via MSNBC
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 09:03:01 PM
Magic number is down to 3... Down goes South Dakota...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: publicunofficial on November 04, 2014, 09:03:08 PM
MSNBC says Brown is done in NH
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: King on November 04, 2014, 09:03:37 PM
Alas, Coco was eliminated from MasterChef Junior tonight.
RIP Coco
RIP Coco
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 04, 2014, 09:03:46 PM
Colorado exit poll:
Gardner 49.5%
Udall 46%
Kansas exit poll:
Roberts 49.5%
Orman 45.5%
Gardner 49.5%
Udall 46%
Kansas exit poll:
Roberts 49.5%
Orman 45.5%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 09:03:51 PM
Nebraska and Wyoming uncalled! LOL
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 04, 2014, 09:03:57 PM
MSNBC calls NH for Shaheen.
YES! BYE CARPETBAGGER! OFF TO CONNECTICUT WITH YOU!!!!!!
Sorry, got a bit too excited. :)
YES! BYE CARPETBAGGER! OFF TO CONNECTICUT WITH YOU!!!!!!
Sorry, got a bit too excited. :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Nichlemn on November 04, 2014, 09:04:32 PM
Colorado exit poll:
Gardner 49.5%
Udall 46%
Kansas exit poll:
Roberts 49.5%
Orman 45.5%
Gardner 49.5%
Udall 46%
Kansas exit poll:
Roberts 49.5%
Orman 45.5%
If close to the mark, makes R Senate extremely likely.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mehmentum on November 04, 2014, 09:05:19 PM
Yep, tonight will be a heartbreaker for Dems, just as expected.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 04, 2014, 09:05:33 PM
Rounds wins. You know what that means gentlemen.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on November 04, 2014, 09:05:53 PM
Exit Polls - Gardner up by 3, Beauprez down 2. Sounds right to me, though the distance between the two is interesting.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 09:06:44 PM
Nebraska and Wyoming uncalled! LOL
They have not closed yet.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 09:06:53 PM
95% reporting, FL-02 is 51.1 Graham 48.9 Southerland. Looks like a pickup
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 04, 2014, 09:06:56 PM
While we're pretending partial results are indicative of full results, Pryor is doing well in Pulaski County (Little Rock). About as well as in his initial 2002 victory. Rural voters continue to be insane though. Something is very amiss in rural America.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 09:07:00 PM
Wow is Barrow going down?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Eraserhead on November 04, 2014, 09:07:59 PM
CO and KS are... not looking good.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Zanas on November 04, 2014, 09:08:06 PM
Nunn is still closing none of the gap at all. Neither is Warner...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 09:09:12 PM
First Republican House pickup called -- David Rouzer. Expected but still pleasant news
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 04, 2014, 09:09:18 PM
Gillespie leads by 5% (!!!) according to FOX. wtf
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 09:09:49 PM
Barrow (D) losing GA-12, 63-37% with 41% of the vote in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 09:10:13 PM
Minimum wage in AR leads by 30%. What went wrong there?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 04, 2014, 09:10:55 PM
Still looking good. We don't need NH to win. (Or NC, though it would be nice to have);
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 04, 2014, 09:11:24 PM
CO 16% in and Hick running 5% ahead of Udall
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 04, 2014, 09:11:26 PM
Concerned that it's not even looking close. Margins in NH?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Nichlemn on November 04, 2014, 09:11:49 PM
Barrow (D) losing GA-12, 63-37% with 41% of the vote in.
Wow. Presumably that's a Republican leaning part of the electorate, but the rest would have to be extremely Dem for him to win.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 09:11:54 PM
Wow is Barrow going down?
Yup, along with Rahall in WV. The last blue dogs are gone, other than Peterson in MN-07 if he survives.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 04, 2014, 09:12:28 PM
Minimum wage in AR leads by 30%. What went wrong there?
The proposal was a raise to a whopping $8.50. A non-joke state would be voting 90% for something so insufficient.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maistre on November 04, 2014, 09:12:35 PM
Warner going down would be glorious, but Christ, Politico would be sickening to read if that happened.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 09:12:39 PM
Pretty sure Kelly can't be getting <20% in IL-2. Something's amiss.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 09:14:01 PM
Colorado 0.3% apart with 13% in
GA: 60-38 Perdue with 27% in
VA: 51-46 Gillespie with 79% in
NC: 50-46 Hagan with 28% in
KS: 49-47 Roberts with 2% in
GA: 60-38 Perdue with 27% in
VA: 51-46 Gillespie with 79% in
NC: 50-46 Hagan with 28% in
KS: 49-47 Roberts with 2% in
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 09:14:08 PM
The Democratic Strategists on CNN are sounding a lot like they're considering waiving the white flag...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mehmentum on November 04, 2014, 09:14:08 PM
Barrow (D) losing GA-12, 63-37% with 41% of the vote in.
Wow. Presumably that's a Republican leaning part of the electorate, but the rest would have to be extremely Dem for him to win.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 09:14:21 PM
First results from CO: El Paso and Denver pour in, and it looks razor thin.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 09:14:47 PM
GOP retains control of the House! WOW ;)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 09:15:05 PM
Control of the House called for GOP.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 09:15:10 PM
It seems three IL districts have R and D numbers switched.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 09:16:03 PM
With 96% in, Graham leads Southerland 51-49
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Phony Moderate on November 04, 2014, 09:16:09 PM
Control of the House called for GOP.
Called by MSNBC about an hour ago IIRC.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 09:16:31 PM
The good news (?) for Udall is that all that is in is 82% of El Paso and 67% of Denver.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 04, 2014, 09:16:37 PM
First results from CO: El Paso and Denver pour in, and it looks razor thin.
Ah, the classic Colorado Springs vs Denver rivalry.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mehmentum on November 04, 2014, 09:16:44 PM
Richmond came in. Warner's now down by 3%. Still waiting on Fairfax and Norfolk.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 09:17:24 PM
With 28% in, Terry leads by 9 points. Reports of his death exaggerated?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 04, 2014, 09:17:56 PM
Minimum wage in AR leads by 30%. What went wrong there?
The proposal was a raise to a whopping $8.50. A non-joke state would be voting 90% for something so insufficient.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rob in cal on November 04, 2014, 09:18:03 PM
Richmond city and Henrico county mostly in, Gillespie lead plunging, will it hold?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 09:18:54 PM
In TX-34, Vela now leads 64-33. Rowley is down from 21% to just 2%.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 09:20:05 PM
Minimum wage increases are extraordinarily popular just about everywhere. Just like background checks for gun purchases. People mostly support Democratic policies but are too misinformed to know it.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: You kip if you want to... on November 04, 2014, 09:20:25 PM
Gillespie still ahead with a collapsing lead.
Nothing to see here.
Nothing to see here.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 09:21:10 PM
WV-3: Jenkins 55-45 with 42% in.
WV-2: Mooney 47-44 with 50% in
VA-10 was easily called for Comstock, 58-39 with 52% reporting.
WV-2: Mooney 47-44 with 50% in
VA-10 was easily called for Comstock, 58-39 with 52% reporting.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 09:21:42 PM
Barrow (D) losing GA-12, 63-37% with 41% of the vote in.
Wow. Presumably that's a Republican leaning part of the electorate, but the rest would have to be extremely Dem for him to win.
Up to 52% in. 58-42 Allen over Barrow.
It's an R+9 district, it does make sense some of the D area is not in. I haven't looked at the SoS map yet.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 04, 2014, 09:22:01 PM
Minimum wage in AR leads by 30%. What went wrong there?
The proposal was a raise to a whopping $8.50. A non-joke state would be voting 90% for something so insufficient.
I would venture to guess that a disappointing number of people in middle America think those are somehow the result of moderate GOP bargaining, as opposed to Democrats wanting to impose Communism and ban guns. The GOP is very good at getting people to believe things that are simply not true.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mehmentum on November 04, 2014, 09:24:39 PM
Warner's got this. He's down 1% now with half of Fairfax out.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 09:24:51 PM
With 54% in, Dold leads 53-47
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 04, 2014, 09:24:59 PM
Gardner winning 48%-46% in Jefferson (major swing county) with 89% of that county in. Looks like a 1-2 point Gardner win tonight
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: sg0508 on November 04, 2014, 09:25:15 PM
Per CNN, Warner starting to run out of votes in northern VA. My goodness. He may hang on, but wow, this is brutal.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 04, 2014, 09:25:41 PM
Damn, VA is gonna be razor thin. This is gonna be closer than VA-Gov 2013. Truly unbelievable.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Indy Texas on November 04, 2014, 09:26:21 PM
How did Owsley County, KY - the poorest county in America - vote?
68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes
68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Zanas on November 04, 2014, 09:26:29 PM
Thank gods for Fairfax County, VA... But Warner, expected to be hovering between +12 and +20, will end up +1 or +2... :/
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 09:26:44 PM
NC: Hagan 49-47 with 39% in
GA: Perdue 60-38 with 32% in (I would be concerned if a D)
CO: Gardner 50-45 with 16% in
KS: Orman 49-47 with 5% in
GA: Perdue 60-38 with 32% in (I would be concerned if a D)
CO: Gardner 50-45 with 16% in
KS: Orman 49-47 with 5% in
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 09:27:29 PM
Warner's got this. He's down 1% now with half of Fairfax out.
I wouldn't bet on that.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 09:28:03 PM
What is up with Georgia? Perdue still leads 60-38. Could this be called tonight and avoid a January runoff?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Zanas on November 04, 2014, 09:29:47 PM
What is up with Georgia? Perdue still leads 60-38. Could this be called tonight and avoid a January runoff?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 09:30:08 PM
What is up with Georgia? Perdue still leads 60-38. Could this be called tonight and avoid a January runoff?
By the same measure, however, there's a good amount of vote out in R leaning Cobb and Gwinnett
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 04, 2014, 09:30:50 PM
CO 50% in, Gardner leads by 9% but most of the GOP juggernauts have reported (including Weld county, Gardner's district). Still, the suburbs are brutal to Udall.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 09:31:47 PM
Warner's got this. He's down 1% now with half of Fairfax out.
I wouldn't bet on that.
I would, D areas are the only thing that's left, and Gillespie is down to a 1 point lead.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 09:32:35 PM
Why is Fairfax so slow? Still half?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: JohnCA246 on November 04, 2014, 09:33:14 PM
CO looking brutal...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 09:33:33 PM
What is up with Georgia? Perdue still leads 60-38. Could this be called tonight and avoid a January runoff?
They seem to be counting slowly. They're up in the high 30s reporting now.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPQR on November 04, 2014, 09:33:46 PM
I'm not comfortable at all with VA.
That is recount territory,easily.
That is recount territory,easily.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPC on November 04, 2014, 09:34:33 PM
Is Sarvis really leading King George County?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 09:34:41 PM
CO 50% in, Gardner leads by 9% but most of the GOP juggernauts have reported (including Weld county, Gardner's district). Still, the suburbs are brutal to Udall.
I mean, loosing in Arapahoe...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 09:35:07 PM
Roberts has taken a narrow lead over Orman.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on November 04, 2014, 09:35:14 PM
CO looking brutal...
Boulder's not in yet. We'll know for sure where we are with that when it comes in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 09:35:42 PM
Udall may be toast in Colorado and soon...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rob in cal on November 04, 2014, 09:36:04 PM
If the other half of Fairfax county gives Warner a similar margin, this is really close.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 09:36:07 PM
This sums up why it looks bad for the Dems. The pathetic Terry in Nebraska also seems to be prevailing. It will be interesting what NY-24 looks like in a bit, where the Dems in NY may lose 4 seats.
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()
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Dixie Reborn on November 04, 2014, 09:36:22 PM
Gillespie still leading.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SamInTheSouth on November 04, 2014, 09:36:27 PM
Haha net gain of D+1 in the house so far.
Edit: on huffpo
Edit: on huffpo
Which seat did the Democrats win?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on November 04, 2014, 09:37:22 PM
Per CNN, Warner starting to run out of votes in northern VA. My goodness. He may hang on, but wow, this is brutal.
POLITICO TOLD YOU!!!! POLITICO TOLD YOU!!!!!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 09:38:22 PM
I see R+1, Republicans having won NC-7 and no other flips projected yet.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 09:39:35 PM
LA in runoff. Shaheen takes NH.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 04, 2014, 09:39:40 PM
WV-2 is still extremely close, hilariously enough.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 7,052,770 on November 04, 2014, 09:39:53 PM
Per CNN, Warner starting to run out of votes in northern VA. My goodness. He may hang on, but wow, this is brutal.
POLITICO TOLD YOU!!!! POLITICO TOLD YOU!!!!!
Yeah, the Republican gloating over this is going to be brutal even if Warner pulls it out, which he probably will.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on November 04, 2014, 09:40:06 PM
FL-02 for Graham.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SamInTheSouth on November 04, 2014, 09:40:15 PM
I see R+1, Republicans having won NC-7 and no other flips projected yet.
Politico says Dems have gained 2, but lost 1. Can't figure out which ones, though
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 09:40:35 PM
I see R+1, Republicans having won NC-7 and no other flips projected yet.
Dems projected to win FL-2
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPQR on November 04, 2014, 09:40:37 PM
I see R+1, Republicans having won NC-7 and no other flips projected yet.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 04, 2014, 09:40:39 PM
Per CNN, Warner starting to run out of votes in northern VA. My goodness. He may hang on, but wow, this is brutal.
POLITICO TOLD YOU!!!! POLITICO TOLD YOU!!!!!
No matter how this ends for Warner... Virginia really is a bag of surprises this year isn't it?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Zanas on November 04, 2014, 09:40:45 PM
From my rough counts of what's still out in VA, this should end up in the low single-digit-thousands, one way or the other. Truly a catastrophe for Warner and the Dems.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 09:41:11 PM
Haha net gain of D+1 in the house so far.
Edit: on huffpo
Edit: on huffpo
Which seat did the Democrats win?
Looks like they bagged FL-02 (may be the only seat they get from the Pubs other than CA-31). But it looks like they are dropping FL-26.
The odds are getting increasingly high that my estimate of R +12 in the House was low, maybe rather considerably low.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: publicunofficial on November 04, 2014, 09:41:33 PM
NYT is declaring Graham the winner in FL-02
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 09:42:01 PM
Shaheen wins :(
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 09:42:17 PM
From all points of evidence, Gardner has defeated Mark Udall.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 04, 2014, 09:43:01 PM
How did Owsley County, KY - the poorest county in America - vote?
68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes
68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 04, 2014, 09:43:03 PM
Tillis moves into the lead in NC.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Seattle on November 04, 2014, 09:44:13 PM
I think Barrah is done... 59% in and he's still down by a lot.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 09:44:24 PM
BTW, Tillis is now ahead. I know about Charlotte, etc. - but...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Frodo on November 04, 2014, 09:44:29 PM
GA12 is gone for the Dems -perhaps forever.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Dixie Reborn on November 04, 2014, 09:45:04 PM
Tillis moves into the lead in NC.
F[Inks]ing Yes!!!!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Rockefeller GOP on November 04, 2014, 09:45:13 PM
Warner's got this. He's down 1% now with half of Fairfax out.
I wouldn't bet on that.
I would, D areas are the only thing that's left, and Gillespie is down to a 1 point lead.
Warner isn't exactly killing it in the suburbs. They're behaving like a swing region, which they are.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 09:45:50 PM
Runoff in Louisiana per CNN.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 09:46:09 PM
Looks like Udall is gone.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 04, 2014, 09:47:38 PM
CNN.com has :
Warner(D) 950,000 48%
Gillespie(R) 970,000 49%
with only 86% of votes reported.
Warner(D) 950,000 48%
Gillespie(R) 970,000 49%
with only 86% of votes reported.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: InquilineKea on November 04, 2014, 09:47:50 PM
wow.. gardner leading in adams county, which normally goes for dems..
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on November 04, 2014, 09:48:20 PM
I think Warner will hold on. He's down by 6,000 votes now.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 09:48:26 PM
From all points of evidence, Gardner has defeated Mark Udall.
I believe you are right. Hick may hold on.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mehmentum on November 04, 2014, 09:48:40 PM
Iowa closing soon...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 09:49:08 PM
Tillis has taken a lead over Hagan at 59% reporting. 48.4% to 48.0%
GA still 59-39 with 45% in
Gardner 50-44 with 54% in
KS: Roberts 49-47 over Orman at 14% in
GA still 59-39 with 45% in
Gardner 50-44 with 54% in
KS: Roberts 49-47 over Orman at 14% in
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 09:49:26 PM
GA12 is gone for the Dems -perhaps forever.
Looking bad. 58-42 R with 61% in. Barrow's Houdini act in that R+9 district may finally be over.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 09:50:13 PM
I think Warner will hold on. He's down by 6,000 votes now.
Yup, odds are that he will. NOVA percentage numbers moved just enough more Dem to make it more likely than not now.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on November 04, 2014, 09:50:53 PM
R.I.P. John Barrow. This is a bad night for Democrats.
At 70%, Dold leads 53-47. Things are looking good for him.
At 70%, Dold leads 53-47. Things are looking good for him.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 09:51:29 PM
NY Times has 94% reporting in Virginia. Gillespie up 0.3%. Sarvis won a county!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPC on November 04, 2014, 09:52:40 PM
NY Times has 94% reporting in Virginia. Gillespie up 0.3%. Sarvis won a county!
Sarvis only got 5% there in 2013. How is that possible?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Frodo on November 04, 2014, 09:52:57 PM
R.I.P. John Barrow. This is a bad night for Democrats.
Potentially the end of the Blue Dog Coalition too.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on November 04, 2014, 09:53:05 PM
Wow, Gillespie is up 20,000 votes now.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mehmentum on November 04, 2014, 09:53:16 PM
Exit polls have Sarvis at 10% with the 18-29 age group. Wave of the future!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Clarko95 📚💰📈 on November 04, 2014, 09:54:14 PM
Wtf Virginia
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 09:54:14 PM
VA is going to be very close. I would definitely not bet on Warner making it.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 09:54:17 PM
Gardner projected winner via Fox News
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Zanas on November 04, 2014, 09:54:18 PM
Polling was just wrong in VA. It will end up a statistical tie, decided by a handful of votes, not more than a few hundreds at this point. Wow.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 09:54:23 PM
The Gardner delivers in Colorado... R+4
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 04, 2014, 09:54:37 PM
Fox News calls Colorado for Gardner.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 09:54:52 PM
Fox: Gardner wins in CO; R +4
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 04, 2014, 09:55:00 PM
Fox predicts Gardner wins. Senator Uterus has been aborted.
BUT KEN BUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
BUT KEN BUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 09:55:02 PM
70% in IL-10; Dold is leading 53-47. 48% in IL-12; Bost leads 53-40
Possible upset: Delaney leading Bongino by just 1 percent
Possible upset: Delaney leading Bongino by just 1 percent
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 5280 on November 04, 2014, 09:55:20 PM
About time the GOP wins in Colorado. We're not a blue state after all.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 09:55:28 PM
PACK YOUR BAGS, UDALL!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 09:55:37 PM
That was my reaction.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Rockefeller GOP on November 04, 2014, 09:55:40 PM
R.I.P. John Barrow. This is a bad night for Democrats.
Potentially the end of the Blue Dog Coalition too.
Though I am like the opposite of a typical old-school Southern Dem on the PM, this is kind of sad to see. Just more and more polarization.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Free Bird on November 04, 2014, 09:56:23 PM
Sayonara, Uterus
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPC on November 04, 2014, 09:56:28 PM
BUT KEN BUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Could we start a meme in 2016 that we have to unskew Virginia polls by ~5-10 points for the Republican? It would make just as much sense as the nonsense we have been hearing all year about Colorado.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 04, 2014, 09:56:51 PM
Don't let the door hit ya, DINOs.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 09:56:58 PM
70% in IL-10; Dold is leading 53-47. 48% in IL-12; Bost leads 53-40
Yes, the Dems dropped two seats in Illinois, with IL-12 being slaughter alley. So far, they are losing next to everything that was not nailed down, making FL-02 a very odd duck.
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 09:57:14 PM
BUT KEN BUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Could we start a meme in 2016 that we have to unskew Virginia polls by ~5-10 points for the Republican? It would make just as much sense as the nonsense we have been hearing all year about Colorado.
But...MUH KEN CUCCINELLI! MUH ED GILLESPIE!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 04, 2014, 09:57:19 PM
BUT KEN BUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Could we start a meme in 2016 that we have to unskew Virginia polls by ~5-10 points for the Republican? It would make just as much sense as the nonsense we have been hearing all year about Colorado.
If it happens a couple more times? Yeah, sure.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Progressive on November 04, 2014, 09:57:29 PM
anyone have an AP link to NY results?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on November 04, 2014, 09:57:33 PM
Don't see how Rahall wins. Down 55/45 with 80% in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mehmentum on November 04, 2014, 09:57:36 PM
My sister just told me she didn't vote.
I may have to disown her.
I may have to disown her.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 04, 2014, 09:57:46 PM
I think Gardner will be president one day.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPQR on November 04, 2014, 09:58:03 PM
Did ANYBODY predict a Gillespie victory,except for Politico?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on November 04, 2014, 09:58:24 PM
Am I crazy? Scott Brown is only down 2 in New Hampshire. May they undo their call? Or do I not know something about New Hampshire politics.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 04, 2014, 09:58:28 PM
R.I.P. John Barrow. This is a bad night for Democrats.
Potentially the end of the Blue Dog Coalition too.
Though I am like the opposite of a typical old-school Southern Dem on the PM, this is kind of sad to see. Just more and more polarization.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 09:58:36 PM
Hurd (R) is leading Gallego (D) 51-46 in TX-23 right now.
Guinta (R) is leading Shea-Porter (D) 52-48 in NH-1 also.
IL-10: Dold (R) leading Schneider (D) 53-47 with 70% in!
GA-12: Allen (R) leading Barrow (D) 60-40 with 68% in!
FL-26: Curbelo (R) leading Garcia (D) 52-48 with 88% in!
Guinta (R) is leading Shea-Porter (D) 52-48 in NH-1 also.
IL-10: Dold (R) leading Schneider (D) 53-47 with 70% in!
GA-12: Allen (R) leading Barrow (D) 60-40 with 68% in!
FL-26: Curbelo (R) leading Garcia (D) 52-48 with 88% in!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 09:58:49 PM
Ouch. Apparently McAuliffe is more popular than Warner.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Nichlemn on November 04, 2014, 09:58:55 PM
Polling was just wrong in VA. It will end up a statistical tie, decided by a handful of votes, not more than a few hundreds at this point. Wow.
I sort of hope Gillipsie (sp) pulls it out, because it'd make a far bigger "WTF? prediction fail" story than if Warner wins by a tiny margin, despite being a big polling failure either way.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Frodo on November 04, 2014, 09:58:58 PM
At this rate, could Republicans reach that 245 seat majority in the House? If they could take out John Barrow by double digits...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Dixie Reborn on November 04, 2014, 09:59:04 PM
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 09:59:32 PM
Don't see how Rahall wins. Down 55/45 with 80% in.
Jenkins projected winner.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on November 04, 2014, 10:00:19 PM
I think this is turnout failure. People in VA thought Warner would win and didn't turn out.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 10:00:43 PM
Montana called for the Republicans R+5.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas on November 04, 2014, 10:00:47 PM
With Daines 99.9% certain to give the GOP #5 as soon as the clock hits, the only real question is which of the many open states is #6.
Looks like Kansas is the GOP's sole vulnerable spot left, as Georgia seems to be going their way.
Looks like Kansas is the GOP's sole vulnerable spot left, as Georgia seems to be going their way.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 10:00:48 PM
Dianes wins in Montana.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 10:00:50 PM
MT goes GOP; R + 5.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: backtored on November 04, 2014, 10:00:53 PM
About time the GOP wins in Colorado. We're not a blue state after all.
Are you surprised?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Alreet on November 04, 2014, 10:01:07 PM
I'm so happy right now
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 10:01:37 PM
CNN is waiting on Colorado, apparently, but Montana brings the magic number down to 2. Colorado brings it to 1.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 10:01:51 PM
MSNBC still isn't calling CO
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Dixie Reborn on November 04, 2014, 10:01:59 PM
I'm so happy right now
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 10:02:04 PM
WV-3 called: Jenkins has beat Rahall 55-45 with 85% reporting.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ilikeverin on November 04, 2014, 10:02:11 PM
CNN exit poll is roughly 51-47 Ernst.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: backtored on November 04, 2014, 10:02:17 PM
Dear America,
You're welcome.
Love,
Colorado
You're welcome.
Love,
Colorado
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPC on November 04, 2014, 10:02:21 PM
BUT KEN BUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Could we start a meme in 2016 that we have to unskew Virginia polls by ~5-10 points for the Republican? It would make just as much sense as the nonsense we have been hearing all year about Colorado.
If it happens a couple more times? Yeah, sure.
It happened only twice in Colorado, hence why I said it would make just as much sense.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 04, 2014, 10:02:50 PM
Tillis up by 0.4% with 67.7% reporting.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 04, 2014, 10:03:05 PM
Iowa exits are 51-47 Ernst.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Frodo on November 04, 2014, 10:03:15 PM
I think this is turnout failure. People in VA thought Warner would win and didn't turn out.
All the crowing by liberals and Democrats (supposedly so well-informed) here about Mark Warner's (and John Barrow's) invincibility in the run-up to this election probably didn't help either.
A lot of you have eggs and crow-feathers on your faces....
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 04, 2014, 10:03:34 PM
Rahall's long and ludicrous (but we'll miss him) career comes to an end. This sounds counterintuitive, but I wonder whether a new candidate might have done better? Rahall was not exactly popular, more the sort of local institution who has his fans but, if you follow me.
WV-2 remains tight, lol.
WV-2 remains tight, lol.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 10:03:38 PM
I can't believe Perdue's performance in Georgia.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: illegaloperation on November 04, 2014, 10:03:48 PM
What is going on with Hagan?
Wake is 90% in; Mecklanburg is 24% in; Buncombe is 100% in.
Wake is 90% in; Mecklanburg is 24% in; Buncombe is 100% in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 10:04:12 PM
Warner needs to make up 18 thousand votes. Tough.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 10:04:25 PM
MSNBC still isn't calling CO
No one care what Rev, Al thinks.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rbt48 on November 04, 2014, 10:04:27 PM
I think that Roberts may pull out his race. If it is tied with the returns so far, western Kansas would seem to be more in his favor.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on November 04, 2014, 10:04:37 PM
CNN exit poll is roughly 51-47 Ernst.
Ouch!
And I fully admit to being wrong about John Barrow and Mark WArner because I, unlike some on this forum, do not profess to be an elections expert. Barrow's loss makes me sad because his opponent seems overly religious.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 10:04:39 PM
The bleeding just seems unrelenting. Of course, the Dems are losing NY-21 in a landslide.
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on November 04, 2014, 10:05:36 PM
Not sure Warner can make up 18,000 votes with 60% of Fairfax in and he's only ahead by 16% in the county.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Eraserhead on November 04, 2014, 10:06:05 PM
They're taking the Senate tonight obviously. What a shame!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: DrScholl on November 04, 2014, 10:06:21 PM
Unfortunately for the country, a GOP Senate means massive gridlock and possibly wasted time on impeachment.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mehmentum on November 04, 2014, 10:06:35 PM
With that Iowa exit poll, there's basically no path left for the Democrats.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 10:06:39 PM
Sad to lose Barrow and Jenkins. Blue dogs are necessary in my mind.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on November 04, 2014, 10:06:50 PM
Looks like my slavery to the polls has made a bitch out of me :P
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Napoleon on November 04, 2014, 10:07:08 PM
In for more KCdem
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Yank2133 on November 04, 2014, 10:07:31 PM
Unfortunately for the country, a GOP Senate means massive gridlock and possibly wasted time on impeachment.
Eh, it is for two years.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 10:08:02 PM
Dear America,
You're welcome.
Love,
Colorado
You're welcome.
Love,
Colorado
Not even Buck got Bucked this cycle. Welcome to Congress, Congressman Buck!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RR1997 on November 04, 2014, 10:08:07 PM
Ed Gillespie is leading in Virginia by 48.8% to 48.5% with 96% of the vote reporting.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mehmentum on November 04, 2014, 10:08:10 PM
I'm seeing Warner down by 7,000, not 18,000...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Eraserhead on November 04, 2014, 10:08:17 PM
The bleeding just seems unrelenting. Of course, the Dems are losing NY-21 in a landslide.
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Only 2% of the vote. Doesn't mean much of anything.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Frodo on November 04, 2014, 10:08:45 PM
Unfortunately for the country, a GOP Senate means massive gridlock and possibly wasted time on impeachment.
Eh, it is for two years.
If that majority turns out to be as large as I projected (54-55 seats), expect it to last longer than just two years.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Napoleon on November 04, 2014, 10:08:59 PM
They're taking the Senate tonight obviously. What a shame!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 10:09:16 PM
I can't believe Perdue's performance in Georgia.
It'll tighten. Atlanta and left-leaning DeKalb and Clayton haven't really reported yet.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 10:09:29 PM
Ed Gillespie is leading in Virginia by 48.8% to 48.5% with 96% of the vote reporting.
Yeah, but it is, suddenly, only 7.5 thousand votes, and big chunk of Fairfax still outstanding. Actually, Warner's chances have gone up.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 04, 2014, 10:09:35 PM
Do you think Perdue can avoid a runoff?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 10:10:32 PM
Do you think Perdue can avoid a runoff?
He is doing it now.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Holmes on November 04, 2014, 10:11:12 PM
I'm tired of Torie posting screencaps of races with only 2% in and acting all SHOCKED! at the results. We get it, man. The results are CRAZY! when only a small amount of ballots have been counted.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 10:11:12 PM
Do you think Perdue can avoid a runoff?
Seems not unlikely. But god knows what is there in Atlanta. It is all Atlanta turnout now.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 04, 2014, 10:11:25 PM
Do you think Perdue can avoid a runoff?
He is doing it now.
Atlanta isn't in yet.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 10:11:48 PM
Warner is likely to net more than 10000 votes from Fairfax. But yeah, he needs to hire Pat Quinn as his campaign manager next time.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 10:12:01 PM
GA: 61% in, 57-41 Perdue.
KS: 50-46 Roberts with 22% in
NC: 49-47 Tillis with 74% in
VA: 48.8 to 48.5 Gillespie with 96% in
This is insane.
KS: 50-46 Roberts with 22% in
NC: 49-47 Tillis with 74% in
VA: 48.8 to 48.5 Gillespie with 96% in
This is insane.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on November 04, 2014, 10:12:10 PM
Do you think Perdue can avoid a runoff?
He is doing it now.
Atlanta isn't in yet.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 10:13:14 PM
I'm tired of Torie posting screencaps of races with only 2% in and acting all SHOCKED! at the results. We get it, man. The results are CRAZY! when only a small amount of ballots have been counted.
Yes, but in general they tend to hold, plus or minus a bit. They eroded in favor of the Dem in NOVA by about 3 points, and thus Warner may pull it out. It just suggests, well a problem.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 10:13:21 PM
87% in GA-12, Allen up 53-47. Barrow has narrowed it.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 04, 2014, 10:13:28 PM
Torie should be banned for his 2% trolling. Nobody with a healthy mind could be that dense. It's either deliberate or Alzheimer's.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: JohnCA246 on November 04, 2014, 10:13:45 PM
Not overly concerned about NC yet because Charlotte has a lot to count...VA yuck.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rob in cal on November 04, 2014, 10:14:10 PM
Alot of Fulton and Dekalb counties are in, I don't think we get a runoff.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 10:14:26 PM
Torie should be banned for his 2% trolling. Nobody with a healthy mind could be that dense. It's either deliberate or Alzheimer's.
Hi Memphis! :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 10:14:36 PM
Torie should be banned for his 2% trolling. Nobody with a healthy mind could be that dense. It's either deliberate or Alzheimer's.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: StateBoiler on November 04, 2014, 10:14:40 PM
What is going on with Hagan?
Wake is 90% in; Mecklanburg is 24% in; Buncombe is 100% in.
Wake is 90% in; Mecklanburg is 24% in; Buncombe is 100% in.
maybe Mecklenburg election officials are looking for votes :D
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 10:15:06 PM
87% in GA-12, Allen up 53-47. Barrow has narrowed it.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Umengus on November 04, 2014, 10:15:47 PM
I bet on Warner. Cfr 2006.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 04, 2014, 10:16:13 PM
Fox News: Republicans will gain about 10 seats in the House tonight.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 10:16:27 PM
Fox: GOP adds "about" 10 seats in the House.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 10:17:03 PM
Here is another "trolling" screen shot for you, Memphis. R +10 seems low to me. We shall see.
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Frodo on November 04, 2014, 10:17:13 PM
Fox: GOP adds "about" 10 seats in the House.
That 245 seat majority target doesn't look so crazy after all....
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Umengus on November 04, 2014, 10:17:32 PM
my god, it's a rout...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 04, 2014, 10:18:09 PM
What's going on in NH? Shaheen's lead is down to 1.8%, 4000 votes.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: JerryArkansas on November 04, 2014, 10:18:54 PM
They need to retract their call of NH now, she is ahead by less than 4,000.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 10:19:00 PM
Braley hasn't started to suck yet...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 10:19:13 PM
Cassidy is leading Landrieu in the primary, that's something I didn't expect. Landrieu is screwed.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 10:19:26 PM
my god, it's a rout...
It is not. It is a very strong performance by the Republicans, but a rout it is not.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Nichlemn on November 04, 2014, 10:19:41 PM
They need to retract their call of NH now, she is ahead by less than 4,000.
Wow, maybe ~55 seats isn't so implausible after all.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 10:19:45 PM
With 31% in (so more than 2%, but still a lot out) Dan Bongino leads John Delaney 50-49 in MD-6.
In 1996, the Senate race in NH was called early for Dick Swett, the Democrat, before the call being retracted and Bob Smith ending up winning. Just a piece of electoral history trivia there for ya ;)
What's going on in NH? Shaheen's lead is down to 1.8%, 4000 votes.
In 1996, the Senate race in NH was called early for Dick Swett, the Democrat, before the call being retracted and Bob Smith ending up winning. Just a piece of electoral history trivia there for ya ;)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 10:19:48 PM
my god, it's a rout...
No, only if the GOP not only holds everything, but gets to 55. It is a good night. :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on November 04, 2014, 10:20:00 PM
AoS calls it for Warner.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 10:20:09 PM
What's going on in Iowa and Brown is surging in NH
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 10:20:15 PM
Braley hasn't started to suck yet...
Des Moines is mostly in while rural Iowa is mostly out. Ernst is sitting pretty right now.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 04, 2014, 10:20:27 PM
Here's a trollshot for you, Torie. Enjoy Iowa.
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 10:21:22 PM
Walker re-elected in WI.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ilikeverin on November 04, 2014, 10:22:17 PM
What's going on in NH? Shaheen's lead is down to 1.8%, 4000 votes.
I think something weird (/glitchy) happened in Berlin, NH. The margin was something like 70-30 for the Dem in 2008 but is now 70-30 for Brown in 2014.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 10:22:32 PM
GA-12 called for Rick Allen
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 10:22:49 PM
Cassidy is leading Landrieu in the primary, that's something I didn't expect. Landrieu is screwed.
Only 7% of New Orleans has reported. She should be on top for tonight.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: user12345 on November 04, 2014, 10:22:52 PM
What the bloody hell is happening tonight.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 10:22:55 PM
CNN about to call Colorado for Gardner. Magic number down to 1...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 10:23:26 PM
Thanks Memphis. And here is another one for you. Maybe I can find a screen shot with just one vote counted. :P
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Holmes on November 04, 2014, 10:23:39 PM
Every villain has to win someday. 2014 may be The Empire Strikes Back, but 2016 will be The Return of the Jedi. :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: JRP1994 on November 04, 2014, 10:23:44 PM
GA-12 called for Rick Allen
This hurts more than anything.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on November 04, 2014, 10:23:51 PM
CNN about to call Colorado for Gardner. Magic number down to 1...
About expected. R.I.P. Senator Udall
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 10:24:17 PM
I guess Coloradans hate condoms.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 04, 2014, 10:24:44 PM
Suppose a few eggs gotta break to make that omelet. Colorado/Virginia are very disappointing, but Republicans are mostly winning in their own strongholds. Disgusting to see all those Democratic candidates running from Obama's record like the cowards they are. The Blue Dog coalition is finally gone, and maybe we can finally see the Democrats begin their transformation into a true leftist party.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 10:25:12 PM
Gov numbers in Iowa aren't a good sign for Braley.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mehmentum on November 04, 2014, 10:25:17 PM
Fairfax came in. Warner's leading. Thank god.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: user12345 on November 04, 2014, 10:25:24 PM
Colorado called for Gardner by Wash Post/AP
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 04, 2014, 10:25:49 PM
GA-12 called for Rick Allen
This hurts more than anything.
He should've run for Sen or Gov this cycle. He still can though.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 10:25:56 PM
With 42% in, Ashford is leading Terry 50-46. There's still a shot for a Democratic pickup in Nebraska to balance out Republican gains elsewhere. Notably, Hayworth, Stefanik, Katko, and all R House incumbents in New York are leading. No votes at all in for Bishop v. Zeldin. IL-10 and IL-12 look very good as well
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 04, 2014, 10:26:21 PM
Fairfax came in. Warner's leading. Thank god.
Indeed. Warner hung on by a thread there, but a win is a win at this stage.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 7,052,770 on November 04, 2014, 10:26:59 PM
Upshot still saying Hagan
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Gotta have this one...
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Gotta have this one...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 04, 2014, 10:26:59 PM
Tisei concedes.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 10:27:02 PM
JUNK ELECTION!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 10:27:08 PM
NC: 76% in, Tillis 49-47.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: JerryArkansas on November 04, 2014, 10:27:10 PM
IL-12 called for the Republican by NYT
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 10:27:14 PM
Roberts up 6 in KS with 44% of the vote in 51-45
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 10:27:30 PM
Perdue is kicking ass with 57% of the vote with 71% reporting. But tell me again how Michelle Nunn is Sam's daughter.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: StateBoiler on November 04, 2014, 10:27:43 PM
Suppose a few eggs gotta break to make that omelet. Colorado/Virginia are very disappointing, but Republicans are mostly winning in their own strongholds. Disgusting to see all those Democratic candidates running from Obama's record like the cowards they are. The Blue Dog coalition is finally gone, and maybe we can finally see the Democrats begin their transformation into a true leftist party.
Sounds good, then the Blue Dogs can break away from the Democrats and begin their own party in the middle.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 04, 2014, 10:27:44 PM
CNN.com now shows Warner (D) winning by 3,000 votes.
Percentages have now switched Warner 49% and Gillespie 48%.
Percentages have now switched Warner 49% and Gillespie 48%.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 10:27:55 PM
Roberts up 6 in KS with 44% of the vote in 51-45
Nonsense! I predicted Santorum would win so this can't be true.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 04, 2014, 10:28:01 PM
Roberts up 6 in KS with 44% of the vote in 51-45
AOSHQDD has called it for Roberts. They also call Republican wins in GA-Sen and GA-Gov without a runoff.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 10:28:16 PM
Bost wins. Remember when Dr. Scholl said a moderate district would never vote for a guy who had a screaming fit on the IL House floor? Shame I don't see Dr. Scholl in this thread
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: sg0508 on November 04, 2014, 10:28:37 PM
And Gardner pulls it out in CO. The GOP jinx is broken.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 04, 2014, 10:29:02 PM
JUNK ELECTION!
lolol
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 7,052,770 on November 04, 2014, 10:29:10 PM
Upshot projecting no runoff in Georgia. :(
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Suburbia on November 04, 2014, 10:29:23 PM
It's sad. Barrow is a good man. He should run for Georgia Senate or governor in the future.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: patrick1 on November 04, 2014, 10:29:35 PM
With 42% in, Ashford is leading Terry 50-46. There's still a shot for a Democratic pickup in Nebraska to balance out Republican gains elsewhere. Notably, Hayworth, Stefanik, Katko, and all R House incumbents in New York are leading. No votes at all in for Bishop v. Zeldin. IL-10 and IL-12 look very good as well
Bishop is losing by 9% with 67% in (10,000 vote deficit)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 10:30:00 PM
Fairfax came in. Warner's leading. Thank god.
Where are you seeing that?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Badger on November 04, 2014, 10:30:33 PM
Roberts up 6 in KS with 44% of the vote in 51-45
Congrats Phil!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPC on November 04, 2014, 10:30:38 PM
Roberts up 6 in KS with 44% of the vote in 51-45
Hmm..
From a pure momentum standpoint, Roberts is on track to win this race by around 5 points.
Granted, unlike Keystone Phil, I was too cowardly to stand by my prediction yesterday.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPQR on November 04, 2014, 10:30:43 PM
Atlanta is 40% in and numbers are still amazing in GA...polls badly overestimated black turnout apparently.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RR1997 on November 04, 2014, 10:31:46 PM
99% of the vote reporting in Virginia.
Warner leads 48.7% to 48.6%.
Warner leads 48.7% to 48.6%.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ag on November 04, 2014, 10:31:56 PM
Atlanta is 40% in and numbers are still amazing in GA...polls badly overestimated black turnout apparently.
This, I would say, is the biggest surprise of the night. No run-off here, it seems.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: JerryArkansas on November 04, 2014, 10:32:06 PM
Warner might really lose this election, northern va is in, and he is only ahead by 3000.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 10:32:25 PM
Only down 3,000 in VA. Where can we find some more votes for Gillespie? :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Umengus on November 04, 2014, 10:32:33 PM
my feeling is better than in 2010...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Frodo on November 04, 2014, 10:32:39 PM
Suppose a few eggs gotta break to make that omelet. Colorado/Virginia are very disappointing, but Republicans are mostly winning in their own strongholds. Disgusting to see all those Democratic candidates running from Obama's record like the cowards they are. The Blue Dog coalition is finally gone, and maybe we can finally see the Democrats begin their transformation into a true leftist party.
The New Democratic Coalition has since taken their place. And I expect all surviving Blue Dogs to join once their caucus is finally disbanded, perhaps early next year. You'll need some centrists to keep you sane and on an even keel...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 10:32:43 PM
I bet the real unskewedpolls guy wished he got into some of this action lol.
I guess this confirms democrats suck at midterms.
I guess this confirms democrats suck at midterms.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPC on November 04, 2014, 10:33:04 PM
Looks like only one Mark will be re-elected this year.
The voters found out his first name.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Badger on November 04, 2014, 10:33:14 PM
my feeling is better than in 2010...
Mine too. ;)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 04, 2014, 10:33:24 PM
With 99% in, Grimes is losing by an Obama 2008 margin in Kentucky. Insane. There vanishes any fantasy of Hillary winning the state (and no, I wasn't one of them).
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 10:33:25 PM
Oh my! Yes, I know, the final numbers will not look like this. But the Dems are going to be slaughtered in Upstate NY.
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rob in cal on November 04, 2014, 10:33:44 PM
Shaheen ahead by 600 votes.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 10:34:08 PM
Moving the Dems to the left means nothing if you can't implement anything. We need to work at changing minds and turnout. The party elite needs to be swept out and replaced.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: sg0508 on November 04, 2014, 10:34:18 PM
Nobody here has mentioned that the GOP jinx is broken in CO yet? CNN made the call
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 04, 2014, 10:34:43 PM
Suppose a few eggs gotta break to make that omelet. Colorado/Virginia are very disappointing, but Republicans are mostly winning in their own strongholds. Disgusting to see all those Democratic candidates running from Obama's record like the cowards they are. The Blue Dog coalition is finally gone, and maybe we can finally see the Democrats begin their transformation into a true leftist party.
Sounds good, then the Blue Dogs can break away from the Democrats and begin their own party in the middle.
America's political infrastructure pushes us towards a two-party system. People tend to drift towards one side or the other (to say the least). As the relevant coalitions in the Democratic Party skew more and more to the left, moderates will become more and more open to leftist ideals. Look how fast the business crowd got comfy with the Christian Right when the GOP realized that's who they had to appeal to in the 80's. Same thing will happen with blue collar workers and suburbanites who lean left even if the overall message of the Democrats becomes more liberal.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RR1997 on November 04, 2014, 10:36:01 PM
Could Warner actually lose reelection?
Warner is leading by only 0.1% (3,000 votes) with 99% of the vote reporting, and NoVA is completely in.
Warner is leading by only 0.1% (3,000 votes) with 99% of the vote reporting, and NoVA is completely in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: JerryArkansas on November 04, 2014, 10:36:10 PM
Browns ahead now.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 10:36:21 PM
Nobody here has mentioned that the GOP jinx is broken in CO yet? CNN made the call
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: folksinger on November 04, 2014, 10:36:59 PM
Republicans are comfortably winning a lot of extra super close Senate races. If Gillespie can force a recount or better, its gone nuclear. Apparantly, blue dogs don't aged well.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 04, 2014, 10:37:15 PM
Moving the Dems to the left means nothing if you can't implement anything. We need to work at changing minds and turnout. The party elite needs to be swept out and replaced.
Yea... Sanders/Warren ticket in 2016, and if we must have Hillary, grab one of them for veep. A Howard Dean type doesn't scare people like it did in 2004.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Beet on November 04, 2014, 10:37:23 PM
Tonight's a disaster. Anyone who thinks "moving to the left" is the appropriate response to this lives in another reality.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 10:37:25 PM
Could Warner actually lose reelection?
Warner is leading by only 0.1% (3,000 votes) with 99% of the vote reporting, and NoVA is completely in.
Warner is leading by only 0.1% (3,000 votes) with 99% of the vote reporting, and NoVA is completely in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Simfan34 on November 04, 2014, 10:37:50 PM
JUNK ELECTION!
LOL!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rob in cal on November 04, 2014, 10:38:02 PM
What counties will give Hagan her win?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPQR on November 04, 2014, 10:38:12 PM
And look at Louisiana...60%,New Orleans starting to be counted and turnout seems amazingly low.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 04, 2014, 10:38:36 PM
Tonight's a disaster. Anyone who thinks "moving to the left" is the appropriate response to this lives in another reality.
All the Democrats did is run away from Obama. Moving to the left is exactly what we have to do.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 10:38:46 PM
96% in, Dold leads 52-48. He's won, it's about to be called.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 04, 2014, 10:38:48 PM
Brown is leading in NH by 3000 votes.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Yank2133 on November 04, 2014, 10:38:51 PM
Tonight's a disaster. Anyone who thinks "moving to the left" is the appropriate response to this lives in another reality.
True, but hiding from your accomplishments is even worst.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 10:38:53 PM
Tonight's a disaster. Anyone who thinks "moving to the left" is the appropriate response to this lives in another reality.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 10:38:54 PM
WOW! WHAT A BLOODBATH!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 10:38:56 PM
Only down 3,000 in VA. Where can we find some more votes for Gillespie? :)
Apparently, Virginia Beach area is going better than expected for Gillespie, so there might be some votes there.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Clarko95 📚💰📈 on November 04, 2014, 10:39:00 PM
CBS says that Roberts wins in KS :(
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 10:39:02 PM
Lol New Hampshire
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 10:39:10 PM
99% of the vote reporting in Virginia.
Warner leads 48.7% to 48.6%.
Warner leads 48.7% to 48.6%.
Area that's out seems to be in the Tidewater. What's the automatic recount trigger in VA? .5%?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on November 04, 2014, 10:39:18 PM
I think Warner is going to hold on. Hagan though.... I think she's done.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 04, 2014, 10:39:23 PM
AOSHQDD says Tillis wins NC.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 10:39:27 PM
Tonight's a disaster. Anyone who thinks "moving to the left" is the appropriate response to this lives in another reality.
Hilariously, a Mississippi Democrat will continue to say that.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 10:39:35 PM
Brown is leading in NH by 3000 votes.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 10:39:52 PM
Brown is leading in NH by 3000 votes.
They need to retract the call.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Frodo on November 04, 2014, 10:39:59 PM
New Hampshire 2014 is now our Florida 2000....
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on November 04, 2014, 10:40:20 PM
So a crapton of polling was wrong? What happened?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 10:40:32 PM
Perdue wins without a runoff! Horrible news!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 10:40:36 PM
Georgia called for Perdue by CNN.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 10:40:47 PM
Moving to the centre? Look at Pryor, Grimes, Landrieu. Hasn't done them any good. It's the image that must be fixed.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 04, 2014, 10:40:56 PM
And here comes Scott Brown with a bowlful of cold sick...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Frodo on November 04, 2014, 10:41:03 PM
There is one bright side, though. We may yet hold on to Iowa...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPQR on November 04, 2014, 10:41:52 PM
How can NC possibly be called?
Half of Charlotte and Greensboro still to be counted,while almost nothing left for Tillis.
Half of Charlotte and Greensboro still to be counted,while almost nothing left for Tillis.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 10:42:13 PM
There is one bright side, though. We may yet hold on to Iowa...
Nope, it's been projected for Ernst by local news. It's over!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on November 04, 2014, 10:42:20 PM
I think Warner is going to hold on. Hagan though.... I think she's done.
Warner might find himself in a recount, though.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 10:42:35 PM
There is one bright side, though. We may yet hold on to Iowa...
The bright side is you are holding VA and NH, for now.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: DrScholl on November 04, 2014, 10:42:52 PM
These losses are unfortunate, but at least the GOP doesn't have the trifecta like from 2001 to 2007, that was a disaster.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 10:42:55 PM
Stefanik leads 53-33 with 32% in. Should be called soon, together with Dold. With 57% in, Bongino leads Delaney 50-48 -- the latter result looks very wavelike.
Des Moines is 96% in. That's what's doing it...
There is one bright side, though. We may yet hold on to Iowa...
Des Moines is 96% in. That's what's doing it...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on November 04, 2014, 10:43:15 PM
Why was NH called? Brown is ahead now with 75% in...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 04, 2014, 10:43:36 PM
lol New Hampshire
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 10:44:31 PM
Shaheen tried to steal the race. This is hilarious.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: StateBoiler on November 04, 2014, 10:44:45 PM
Suppose a few eggs gotta break to make that omelet. Colorado/Virginia are very disappointing, but Republicans are mostly winning in their own strongholds. Disgusting to see all those Democratic candidates running from Obama's record like the cowards they are. The Blue Dog coalition is finally gone, and maybe we can finally see the Democrats begin their transformation into a true leftist party.
Sounds good, then the Blue Dogs can break away from the Democrats and begin their own party in the middle.
America's political infrastructure pushes us towards a two-party system. People tend to drift towards one side or the other (to say the least). As the relevant coalitions in the Democratic Party skew more and more to the left, moderates will become more and more open to leftist ideals. Look how fast the business crowd got comfy with the Christian Right when the GOP realized that's who they had to appeal to in the 80's. Same thing will happen with blue collar workers and suburbanites who lean left even if the overall message of the Democrats becomes more liberal.
You're right. A left party though in a lot of the country is not a part of the two-party system for the same reason that a right party in a lot of the country is not a part of the two-party system. I voted in northeastern Indiana and when you got down to the State House level and below, there was no such thing as a Democratic Party candidate today, and this is the 2nd-largest city in the state: Fort Wayne. So what you want to have happen just creates a de facto single party system, which explains a lot of the extremism for both the Republicans and Democrats in the House. Only one party can win most House districts because they're drawn that way.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 10:44:48 PM
Apparently Berlin, NH, which normally votes strongly Democratic, is being reported as strongly Republican. I don't know what's going on there (could just be a mistake; Shaheen's and Brown's figures flipped), but if it's a real thing then it's something that wasn't foreseen and was not included in any projections.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 10:45:21 PM
Wow, New Hampshire is not called
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 10:45:34 PM
Bishop has apparently conceded, but I'm not seeing any calls anywhere. Should be seeing a checkmark by Zeldin soon, though.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: patrick1 on November 04, 2014, 10:45:43 PM
Bishop concedes NY-1, Rice down in NY-4
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 10:45:48 PM
Why has no one talked about CNN calling Colorado for Gardner on this thread yet?
Many of us have.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 10:46:39 PM
Perdue wins without a runoff! Horrible news!
those polls were junk after all :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 10:46:44 PM
Shaheen is back up by 2,000 votes or so with 77% in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 04, 2014, 10:46:49 PM
New Hampshire 2014 is now our Florida 2000....
Her 0.4% lead is a blowout landslide compared to Florida 2000.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 10:47:31 PM
There is one bright side, though. We may yet hold on to Iowa...
Exits in Iowa show Ernst with a large lead.
Fox calls Roberts (R) in Iowa.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on November 04, 2014, 10:47:35 PM
Kansas was called...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 10:47:38 PM
Roberts has won
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 04, 2014, 10:47:39 PM
Fox News: Roberts wins Kansas
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: retromike22 on November 04, 2014, 10:47:47 PM
UGH Georgia!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 10:47:51 PM
Fox: Roberts holds KS. I am surprised.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 04, 2014, 10:48:09 PM
Where's the guy who said that Dems were going to pick up seats?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 10:48:14 PM
Another problem area for the Dems. But the Dem moves ahead a couple of points in NY-18 with about 20% in, and the Dem moves ahead of Terry in Nebraska with about the same percentage in. So on balance a good 20 minutes for the Dems vis a vis the House count.
Oh, and Fox call KS for Roberts. So Iowa should wrap it up tonight for the Senate.
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Oh, and Fox call KS for Roberts. So Iowa should wrap it up tonight for the Senate.
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 10:48:18 PM
BUONA SERA A TUTTI!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Frodo on November 04, 2014, 10:48:34 PM
New Hampshire 2014 is now our Florida 2000....
Her 0.4% lead is a blowout landslide compared to Florida 2000.
As of now...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 10:48:56 PM
With 3% in, Luz Robles and Doug Owens are both winning in Utah ::)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 10:49:12 PM
NH, Brown not conceding.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 10:49:43 PM
With 3% in, Luz Robles and Doug Owens are both winning in Utah ::)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 10:50:16 PM
This has been a funner night that I expected.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Ljube on November 04, 2014, 10:50:33 PM
What a wonderful Republican wave!!!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 04, 2014, 10:51:05 PM
Bishop concedes NY-1, Rice down in NY-4
That judge drew a crappy map for Democrats.
()
Louise Slaughter, who's been in office since the '80s, is behind with 90% reporting in her district. Damn. The Democrats might lose half a dozen Congressional seats in New York alone.
Louise Slaughter, who's been in office since the '80s, is behind with 90% reporting in her district. Damn. The Democrats might lose half a dozen Congressional seats in New York alone.
However, if this one flips, it's Slaughter underperforming. I think she wins in the end.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 10:51:12 PM
()
Louise Slaughter, who's been in office since the '80s, is behind with 90% reporting in her district. Damn. The Democrats might lose half a dozen Congressional seats in New York alone.
Louise Slaughter, who's been in office since the '80s, is behind with 90% reporting in her district. Damn. The Democrats might lose half a dozen Congressional seats in New York alone.
I think this seat was universally rated Safe D. Even if Slaughter pulls this out with the final 10%...damn.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SNJ1985 on November 04, 2014, 10:51:25 PM
I shouldn't have changed my original prediction of a Roberts win in KS...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 04, 2014, 10:52:04 PM
Braley(D) in Iowa is surprisingly doing better than I thought.
Could it be that the inner city votes are the ones that have predominately been counted so far ?
Could it be that the inner city votes are the ones that have predominately been counted so far ?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 10:52:12 PM
This is fairly horrible. I'm not going to eat for a week.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 10:52:16 PM
With 3% in, Luz Robles and Doug Owens are both winning in Utah ::)
Haven't got that far west yet. Still pondering Rochester. That puppy is just amazing. But the precincts are variegated in Rochester, so no clue how that one will turn out.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 10:52:45 PM
With all Democratic parts of the district (Des Moines, basically) nearly totally in, Staci Appel is leading David Young by just 200 votes. This one should be a hold. IA-1 looks like a D hold, but there's only 11% in there right now.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 04, 2014, 10:52:57 PM
This is fairly horrible. I'm not going to eat for a week.
RIP, FF. : (
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: BaconBacon96 on November 04, 2014, 10:53:01 PM
Scott Brown still competing. Ugh
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 04, 2014, 10:53:15 PM
This is fairly horrible. I'm not going to eat for a week.
Life goes on.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 7,052,770 on November 04, 2014, 10:53:17 PM
Looks like it's over. Even if we win Iowa and Alaska it won't be enough.
On the bright (but still very dim) side, Landrieu's chances improve now that Republicans are going to control either way.
On the bright (but still very dim) side, Landrieu's chances improve now that Republicans are going to control either way.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Free Bird on November 04, 2014, 10:53:25 PM
Dammit Kansas
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SamInTheSouth on November 04, 2014, 10:53:30 PM
Grimm has been reelected. Unbelievable......
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPC on November 04, 2014, 10:53:33 PM
I shouldn't have changed my original prediction of a Roberts win in KS...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Beet on November 04, 2014, 10:54:00 PM
With 56% reporting, John Delaney is down 2.6 pts in MD's gerrymandered 6th district. With 43%, Chris Van Hollen is only up 7.6 pts.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 10:54:37 PM
Chris Van Hollen won't lose, but he's being held to 54-46 with 43% in. That is a wave result.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 10:54:42 PM
New Hampshire may be going to recount...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 7,052,770 on November 04, 2014, 10:54:45 PM
()
It's always darkest before the dawn. Our best days are still ahead of us.
It's always darkest before the dawn. Our best days are still ahead of us.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: sg0508 on November 04, 2014, 10:55:46 PM
Counting has stopped in NC/VA. I wonder why.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 10:55:52 PM
99% in Rochester (NY-25) -- Slaughter leads her total no-name opponent, Mark Assini, by 75 votes. This one is basically a guaranteed recount.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 10:55:58 PM
New Hampshire may be going to recount...
There still isn't a full count yet.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 10:56:02 PM
~52,000 lead for Tillis is NC with 94% in. Charlotte is not giving Hagan what she needs. Turnout is pathetic...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Frodo on November 04, 2014, 10:56:05 PM
New Hampshire may be going to recount...
As with Virginia and North Carolina.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Beagle on November 04, 2014, 10:56:19 PM
Anybody know what percentage of Milwaukee is in? Right now, Wisconsin looks great for the Republicans up and down the ballot.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: illegaloperation on November 04, 2014, 10:56:22 PM
Hagan is down 2% with mostly blue counties left.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RR1997 on November 04, 2014, 10:56:28 PM
()
It's always darkest before the dawn. Our best days are still ahead of us.
It's always darkest before the dawn. Our best days are still ahead of us.
Let's not wander off into 2016 just yet.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: StateBoiler on November 04, 2014, 10:56:33 PM
()
It's always darkest before the dawn. Our best days are still ahead of us.
It's always darkest before the dawn. Our best days are still ahead of us.
The same Hillary all the Democrats on this board hated with a passion six years ago?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPQR on November 04, 2014, 10:56:37 PM
Slaughter ahead by 75 votes.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 10:56:46 PM
Awwww we had to hear soooo much about Greg Orman. Such a shame that he will fade back into irrelevance.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 10:56:48 PM
With 23% in, Katko is sitting at 63%. He won't get that, obviously, but I think it's nearly certain he's won. Gosh, I hope this Mark Assini isn't a total crazy person.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 10:56:52 PM
How is Ernst losing Iowa so bad right now, someone in the know please explain.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 10:56:58 PM
New Hampshire may be going to recount...
There still isn't a full count yet.
This was a report from the Shaheen HQ on CNN. Scott Brown is not conceding, yet.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 04, 2014, 10:57:17 PM
()
It's always darkest before the dawn. Our best days are still ahead of us.
It's always darkest before the dawn. Our best days are still ahead of us.
Yea, and she better revert to the Hillary Clinton of 1993 instead of that imposter we saw in 2008 acting like she actually disagreed with the liberal Obama about anything.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 10:57:46 PM
God, this is worse than 2010. Arizona House races look like a bright spot though...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 10:57:51 PM
How is Ernst losing Iowa so bad right now, someone in the know please explain.
Des Moines (Polk County) is almost all in. The rest of Iowa is almost all out. Ernst should start making her move very soon.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 10:57:54 PM
Is overall turnout particularly low or is it just a swing from indies?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Badger on November 04, 2014, 10:58:19 PM
()
Louise Slaughter, who's been in office since the '80s, is behind with 90% reporting in her district. Damn. The Democrats might lose half a dozen Congressional seats in New York alone.
Louise Slaughter, who's been in office since the '80s, is behind with 90% reporting in her district. Damn. The Democrats might lose half a dozen Congressional seats in New York alone.
I obviously don't go in for "Ready4Hillary mania", but assuming she is the nominee, these freshmen are going to have a hard row to hoe for a second term.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Yank2133 on November 04, 2014, 10:58:25 PM
()
It's always darkest before the dawn. Our best days are still ahead of us.
It's always darkest before the dawn. Our best days are still ahead of us.
The same Hillary all the Democrats on this board hated with a passion six years ago?
No Obama around this time......
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Beet on November 04, 2014, 10:58:58 PM
God, this is worse than 2010. Arizona House races look like a bright spot though...
2010 could be blamed on the economy.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Dixie Reborn on November 04, 2014, 10:59:04 PM
Anybody know what percentage of Milwaukee is in? Right now, Wisconsin looks great for the Republicans up and down the ballot.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: StateBoiler on November 04, 2014, 10:59:09 PM
Hagan is down 2% with mostly blue counties left.
http://enr.ncsbe.gov/electionresults/
Tillis up 50000 with 117 precincts left.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 10:59:13 PM
Dold is called as the winner (finally). Maffei has conceded to Katko but I'm not seeing a checkmark there yet.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: NewYorkExpress on November 04, 2014, 10:59:22 PM
This means the GOP becomes the (heavy) favorites in 2016 if they don't do something stupid... like impeaching Obama.
Hillary really needs to rethink running for President now.
Hillary really needs to rethink running for President now.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 10:59:42 PM
And overrated Michelle Nunn remains overrated!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RR1997 on November 04, 2014, 10:59:55 PM
Fox called Georgia for Perdue, so there will be no runoff.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 10:59:56 PM
Polk County in Iowa is almost done reporting. Everywhere else has yet to report. Ernst has this when you see other counties.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 10:59:58 PM
Fox: Purdue wins 55/43. No runoff.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 11:00:12 PM
Polling was sh**t. Biased toward Democrats. Ugh
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 11:00:19 PM
Roberts has won
GA called by Fox outright.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 11:00:23 PM
By the end of the night, I think they'll have R+9
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: StateBoiler on November 04, 2014, 11:00:41 PM
This means the GOP becomes the (heavy) favorites in 2016 if they don't do something stupid... like impeaching Obama.
Hillary really needs to rethink running for President now.
Hillary really needs to rethink running for President now.
are you kidding? Democratic presidential nominee would love to run with a Republican Senate and House
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Beet on November 04, 2014, 11:01:09 PM
This means the GOP becomes the (heavy) favorites in 2016 if they don't do something stupid... like impeaching Obama.
Hillary really needs to rethink running for President now.
Hillary really needs to rethink running for President now.
Huh? Conceding 2016 already? It certainly means she's not as favored in the general as we thought, but if anything it just destroys the notion that "a challenge to the left" would be constructive at all.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 04, 2014, 11:01:12 PM
Fox: Schatz wins Hawaii. Nobody's shocked.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 7,052,770 on November 04, 2014, 11:01:15 PM
This means the GOP becomes the (heavy) favorites in 2016 if they don't do something stupid... like impeaching Obama.
Hillary really needs to rethink running for President now.
Hillary really needs to rethink running for President now.
Ah yes, just ask Presidents Dukakis, Dole, Gore, and Romney about how easy it is to win 2 years after a good midterm.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 11:01:19 PM
God, this is worse than 2010. Arizona House races look like a bright spot though...
Very odd, because Grijalva is doing very poorly, barely winning, while Kirkpatrick and Barber hold on to narrow leads. Barber is doing better than Grijalva. That's got to be a fluke of what's in and what's out, it can't stay that way.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on November 04, 2014, 11:01:21 PM
Turnout is horrible I think.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 11:01:21 PM
Fox: Holds in ID, HI, and OR.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: NewYorkExpress on November 04, 2014, 11:02:00 PM
This means the GOP becomes the (heavy) favorites in 2016 if they don't do something stupid... like impeaching Obama.
Hillary really needs to rethink running for President now.
Hillary really needs to rethink running for President now.
are you kidding? Democratic presidential nominee would love to run with a Republican Senate and House
Look at the second half of the first sentence, where I say the GOP shouldn't impeach Obama. Needless to say, they probably will.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 04, 2014, 11:02:16 PM
Turnout is horrible I think.
Well no sh**t, what reason have the Democrats given to have Democrats turn out? They've been absolutely pathetic at standing up to the GOP.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 04, 2014, 11:02:37 PM
With 99% in, Slaughter is ahead... by less than one hundred votes.
And Michael Grimm has been re-elected. LOL
And Michael Grimm has been re-elected. LOL
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 11:02:44 PM
Kevin Yoder is leading Kelly Kultala just 53-47 with 15% in -- could be another D pickup if what's left is favorable to Kultala. The other Kansas Republicans are sitting pretty.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Beet on November 04, 2014, 11:02:55 PM
Turnout is horrible I think.
Well no sh**t, what reason have the Democrats given to have Democrats turn out? They've been absolutely pathetic at standing up to the GOP.
Well they're about to get more pathetic at it.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Yank2133 on November 04, 2014, 11:03:15 PM
This means the GOP becomes the (heavy) favorites in 2016 if they don't do something stupid... like impeaching Obama.
Hillary really needs to rethink running for President now.
Hillary really needs to rethink running for President now.
Lol, just like they were heavy favorites in 2012?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 11:03:26 PM
I would like to apologize to all those I gave false hope to.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 11:03:38 PM
This means the GOP becomes the (heavy) favorites in 2016 if they don't do something stupid... like impeaching Obama.
Hillary really needs to rethink running for President now.
Hillary really needs to rethink running for President now.
I think you're overreacting.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Smash255 on November 04, 2014, 11:03:53 PM
Just got home, haven't been following much other than seeing a few alerts on my phone, but....
WTF is going on in Virginia??
WTF is going on in Virginia??
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 11:04:38 PM
WTF is going on in Virginia??
Breaking: Mark Warner isn't God.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: NewYorkExpress on November 04, 2014, 11:04:54 PM
This means the GOP becomes the (heavy) favorites in 2016 if they don't do something stupid... like impeaching Obama.
Hillary really needs to rethink running for President now.
Hillary really needs to rethink running for President now.
I think you're overreacting.
This means the GOP becomes the (heavy) favorites in 2016 if they don't do something stupid... like impeaching Obama.
Hillary really needs to rethink running for President now.
Hillary really needs to rethink running for President now.
Lol, just like they were heavy favorites in 2012?
This means the GOP becomes the (heavy) favorites in 2016 if they don't do something stupid... like impeaching Obama.
Hillary really needs to rethink running for President now.
Hillary really needs to rethink running for President now.
I think you're overreacting.
Maybe... I think a lot depends on what this Congress does (or doesn't) do between now and June 2016.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Frodo on November 04, 2014, 11:05:01 PM
Getting tight in Iowa as Ernst makes up lost ground...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: BaconBacon96 on November 04, 2014, 11:05:40 PM
This is devastating. Completely devastating.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 11:05:55 PM
Ernst making her move. 43% in and only down 2.
Tillis still 51,000 ahead with 95% in.
Tillis still 51,000 ahead with 95% in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RR1997 on November 04, 2014, 11:06:00 PM
Just got home, haven't been following much other than seeing a few alerts on my phone, but....
WTF is going on in Virginia??
WTF is going on in Virginia??
Warner only leading by 0.5%, with 99% of the vote in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 11:06:40 PM
I expect a call for Iowa for Ernst within the next hour.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 11:06:51 PM
This means the GOP becomes the (heavy) favorites in 2016 if they don't do something stupid... like impeaching Obama.
Every word in this statement is so dumb
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 04, 2014, 11:06:53 PM
Well this has been a lovely night. Does anyone who knows anything about NH think that it should be uncalled?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 11:07:02 PM
Braley is done. No big source of votes to pull him up.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 11:07:06 PM
Ernst wins. This is over. Who knows what will happen in Alaska, but we'll probably lose that. Hagan will probably lose too.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Zanas on November 04, 2014, 11:07:27 PM
Warner has more votes still to come than Gillespie I think, at least the same. Warner will win razor thinly. May lead to a recount.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 11:07:38 PM
Well this has been a lovely night. Does anyone who knows anything about NH think that it should be uncalled?
Well, Shaheen is back out to a narrow lead -- rounds down to D+0 -- with 76% in. No clue what's going on up there.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: user12345 on November 04, 2014, 11:07:42 PM
This is devastating. Completely devastating.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 11:07:47 PM
Shaheen is recovering. No need to uncall.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 7,052,770 on November 04, 2014, 11:07:51 PM
Damn, looks like Childers isn't even going to hit 40% in Mississippi. Absolutely abysmal performance for a Mississippi Democrat, especially one who's not just "some random guy"
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 04, 2014, 11:08:01 PM
Chris Van Hollen is narrowly behind...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPQR on November 04, 2014, 11:08:05 PM
Ok,Hagan is done.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 11:08:17 PM
Well this has been a lovely night. Does anyone who knows anything about NH think that it should be uncalled?
Shaheen is increasing her lead again, back to over 6,000. Brown still has hope, but I expect it to stay called safely for Democrats.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 11:08:41 PM
Along the lines of Virginia, double-digit Republican victories in Georgia and Wisconsin are also places where the polls were very, very off.
EDIT: Jared Polis and Ed Perlmutter, I just noticed, are being held to single-digit victories. Coffman is up double-digits with 68% reporting. As Binyamin Netanyahu said, if it looks like a wave and it walks like a wave and it quacks like a wave...
EDIT: Jared Polis and Ed Perlmutter, I just noticed, are being held to single-digit victories. Coffman is up double-digits with 68% reporting. As Binyamin Netanyahu said, if it looks like a wave and it walks like a wave and it quacks like a wave...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 11:08:43 PM
CNN calls Kansas for Roberts.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Beet on November 04, 2014, 11:09:07 PM
Chris Van Hollen is narrowly behind...
The future House Democratic leader? I can't believe he'll lose. If he does, it would be a bigger upset than Cantor. Not going to happen.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RR1997 on November 04, 2014, 11:09:11 PM
If the GOP net gain 9-11 seats, they might retain the Senate after the 2016 Elections.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 11:10:31 PM
If the GOP net gains 9-11 seats, they might retain the Senate after the 2016 Elections.
In theory, the could even expand it.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 11:10:50 PM
Ernst has taken the lead halfway home.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 11:11:40 PM
48% in, Van Hollen is barely losing. This is like Warner and Slaughter -- even if he pulls it out, ing wow.
EDIT: Let's talk about a rare Democratic overperformance -- in blood-red PA-16, Joe Pitts is being held to 55-45 by his no-name Democratic opponent, and there is no checkmark. In the actual Democratic targets, Costello and Fitzpatrick have both been called as winners; they have 57% and 63% respectively.
EDIT: Let's talk about a rare Democratic overperformance -- in blood-red PA-16, Joe Pitts is being held to 55-45 by his no-name Democratic opponent, and there is no checkmark. In the actual Democratic targets, Costello and Fitzpatrick have both been called as winners; they have 57% and 63% respectively.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 11:12:36 PM
AZ looks status-quo right now at least.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPC on November 04, 2014, 11:13:49 PM
If the GOP net gains 9-11 seats, they might retain the Senate after the 2016 Elections.
In theory, the could even expand it.
I cannot imagine Bennet feeling particularly safe right now.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 04, 2014, 11:14:29 PM
538 has Republican's chances at 99%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 11:14:35 PM
Anybody else expect Iowa to be called soon?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 04, 2014, 11:14:53 PM
WTF is going on in Virginia??
Breaking: Mark Warner isn't God.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 11:15:04 PM
With 100% in, looks like Slaughter has won by about 600 votes.
Anytime now.
Anybody else expect Iowa to be called soon?
Anytime now.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 11:15:17 PM
Ernst now up 49-47 with 52% of the vote in in Iowa.
The fat lady's warming up, Senator Reid.
The fat lady's warming up, Senator Reid.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 11:16:01 PM
AZ looks status-quo right now at least.
Sinema has definitely won (even though there's no checkmark), but Kirkpatrick, Barber, and oddly enough Grijalva, while all ahead are all still in the danger zone.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 11:16:10 PM
Well this has been a lovely night. Does anyone who knows anything about NH think that it should be uncalled?
I think Shaheen has it, but there are still a lot of GOP towns left, but theres also a lot of Shaheen towns left too.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rob in cal on November 04, 2014, 11:16:38 PM
When the dust settles it will be fun to do a full analysis of polling in this election.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 04, 2014, 11:19:30 PM
Tonight is brutal. Just brutal. I mean, we can't "win" every election but are there ANY bright spots for us tonight?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 11:20:13 PM
Tonight is brutal. Just brutal. I mean, we can't "win" every election but are there ANY bright spots for us tonight?
Gwen Graham is all I can think of, among stuff that has been called. There are still possibilities out there in uncalled races, though. Oh, and Patrick Murphy, thinking of Florida.
EDIT: On an unrelated note, Van Hollen has retaken a 51-49 lead with 51% of the vote in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 04, 2014, 11:20:34 PM
Chris Van Hollen is narrowly behind...
The future House Democratic leader? I can't believe he'll lose. If he does, it would be a bigger upset than Cantor. Not going to happen.
Back ahead, but not by much. Wtf is going on there?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ILoveTheSmellOfTheSenate on November 04, 2014, 11:21:35 PM
Tonight is brutal. Just brutal. I mean, we can't "win" every election but are there ANY bright spots for us tonight?
Well, you still have Obama in the White House...but I wouldn't call that a bright spot.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 04, 2014, 11:21:55 PM
Am I the only Dem who is starting to find the results of tonight kinda funny? Especially Virginia.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 11:22:00 PM
Tonight is brutal. Just brutal. I mean, we can't "win" every election but are there ANY bright spots for us tonight?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 04, 2014, 11:22:25 PM
Tonight is brutal. Just brutal. I mean, we can't "win" every election but are there ANY bright spots for us tonight?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 11:22:38 PM
Fox calls Iowa for Ernst. Ballgame.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 11:22:45 PM
Chris Van Hollen is narrowly behind...
The future House Democratic leader? I can't believe he'll lose. If he does, it would be a bigger upset than Cantor. Not going to happen.
Back ahead, but not by much. Wtf is going on there?
Turnout in Maryland can round down to zero. I think we'll be seeing a call for the Republican gubernatorial candidate, Larry Hogan, soon. In western news, Ed Perlmutter has been reelected (as has Diana DeGette, obviously) but Jared Polis is still in a mortal struggle with his no-name opponent; with 46% in, he leads just 53-47.
EDIT: Stefanik just got the checkmark. Zeldin and Katko will be joining her very soon -- but for all of Torie's enthusiasm, with 78% in, Maloney is leading Hayworth 51-47. In NY-25, 100% is in but there is no call for Slaughter, and there could well be a recount.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 04, 2014, 11:22:51 PM
Fox projects Iowa wins. Republicans pick up (at least) six seats.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 11:22:54 PM
Ernst wins in IA. R+6 (Majority)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RR1997 on November 04, 2014, 11:22:58 PM
Fox has called Iowa for Ernst
Fox has called Senate control for the GOP.
Fox has called Senate control for the GOP.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Free Bird on November 04, 2014, 11:23:12 PM
Where is our good friend OC?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Yank2133 on November 04, 2014, 11:23:26 PM
Tonight is brutal. Just brutal. I mean, we can't "win" every election but are there ANY bright spots for us tonight?
Well, you still have Obama in the White House...but I wouldn't call that a bright spot.
I would, veto power FTW!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Badger on November 04, 2014, 11:23:31 PM
Tonight is brutal. Just brutal. I mean, we can't "win" every election but are there ANY bright spots for us tonight?
Brownback is winning.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Beagle on November 04, 2014, 11:23:36 PM
When the dust settles it will be fun to do a full analysis of polling in this election.
Eh, there is a tendency to exaggerate how much polls suck after wave elections, but on the whole I see 2-3 (VA Sen, CO Sen and WI Gov) statewide races out of the top 20 where the result of vote is outside the margin of error. Not bad at all, considering there were 30-ish heavily polled races. The only thing that should probably die a quick death is "unskewing" polls.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: old timey villain on November 04, 2014, 11:23:39 PM
Tonight is brutal. Just brutal. I mean, we can't "win" every election but are there ANY bright spots for us tonight?
For me the only bright spot is Henry County, GA- won by Nunn. I've been waiting for it to flip for years
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Representative Joe Mad on November 04, 2014, 11:23:52 PM
Am I the only Dem who is starting to find the results of tonight kinda funny? Especially Virginia.
Sorta, though the results obviously are not what I wanted to see. I'm just surprised how off all the polling was.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 7,052,770 on November 04, 2014, 11:24:02 PM
Keep your heads up, Dems. We basked in their sweet, sweet tears 2 years ago, and we'll do it again in 2 years.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 11:24:05 PM
Ernst up 50-46 with 60% in. They need to call this race so I can go to bed...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPC on November 04, 2014, 11:24:15 PM
I imagine this must sway any late-voting undecideds in Alaska...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 04, 2014, 11:24:22 PM
Tonight is brutal. Just brutal. I mean, we can't "win" every election but are there ANY bright spots for us tonight?
We have a star that's going to hang on in NH, your stereotypical horrible GOPer going down in flames in PA, and the the door is open for progressives to really take over the Democratic Party. Those are the bright spots.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 04, 2014, 11:24:25 PM
lolDemocrats.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 11:24:31 PM
We are back, America. :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPQR on November 04, 2014, 11:25:00 PM
When the dust settles it will be fun to do a full analysis of polling in this election.
Eh, there is a tendency to exaggerate how much polls suck after wave elections, but on the whole I see 2-3 (VA Sen, CO Sen and WI Gov) statewide races out of the top 20 where the result of vote is outside the margin of error. Not bad at all, considering there were 30-ish heavily polled races. The only thing that should probably die a quick death is "unskewing" polls.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 04, 2014, 11:25:48 PM
We are back, America. :)
Ugh. Lovely.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 04, 2014, 11:25:53 PM
But the GOP is dead!!!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maistre on November 04, 2014, 11:26:01 PM
NM called for the smart Udall by MSNBC.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 11:26:06 PM
Where is our good friend OC?
Yeah, I wanna know what seats are guaranteeing Democratic control of the Senate?
We are back, America. :)
From the ashes a fire shall be woken,
A light from the shadows shall spring;
Renewed shall be blade that was broken,
The crownless again shall be king.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Badger on November 04, 2014, 11:26:25 PM
Ernst up 50-46 with 60% in. They need to call this race so I can go to bed...
It's called for Ernst, Bushie. You can go get your daily recommended 13 hours of beauty sleep now.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Beet on November 04, 2014, 11:26:31 PM
Tonight is brutal. Just brutal. I mean, we can't "win" every election but are there ANY bright spots for us tonight?
We have a star that's going to hang on in NH, your stereotypical horrible GOPer going down in flames in PA, and the the door is open for progressives to really take over the Democratic Party. Those are the bright spots.
This is nuts. Progressives aren't a majority in this country, not even close, is the sad reality. This is a wake-up call like 1994 that we need to meet the electorate where it is or face an even worse fate.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 04, 2014, 11:26:34 PM
AP calls NC for Tillis. Wow, just wow.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPQR on November 04, 2014, 11:27:04 PM
Also Lousiana is waaaay off the mark wrt to polls.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 11:27:30 PM
And like that, Katko and Zeldin have checkmarks. Republicans are sitting at R+8; we've made up 2012; and we still have way more upside.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ilikeverin on November 04, 2014, 11:27:33 PM
Chris Van Hollen is narrowly behind...
The future House Democratic leader? I can't believe he'll lose. If he does, it would be a bigger upset than Cantor. Not going to happen.
Back ahead, but not by much. Wtf is going on there?
Turnout in Maryland can round down to zero. I think we'll be seeing a call for the Republican gubernatorial candidate, Larry Hogan, soon. In western news, Ed Perlmutter has been reelected (as has Diana DeGette, obviously) but Jared Polis is still in a mortal struggle with his no-name opponent; with 46% in, he leads just 53-47.
EDIT: Stefanik just got the checkmark. Zeldin and Katko will be joining her very soon -- but for all of Torie's enthusiasm, with 78% in, Maloney is leading Hayworth 51-47. In NY-25, 100% is in but there is no call for Slaughter, and there could well be a recount.
You're right that it seems to be a turnout thing in large part, although I think there's still enough vote left in MontCo and PGC that Brown isn't doomed yet. Still, definitely unsettling.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: sg0508 on November 04, 2014, 11:28:28 PM
Rep. Tim Bishop (D- NY 1) finally goes down after all these years.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 11:28:43 PM
Tillis wins NC per Fox News.
Mahoney in NY-18 must be a very talented politician (who may win and is ahead as Vosem says), since otherwise NY has been a Dem disaster.
Mahoney in NY-18 must be a very talented politician (who may win and is ahead as Vosem says), since otherwise NY has been a Dem disaster.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RR1997 on November 04, 2014, 11:28:48 PM
Fox News has called NC for Tillis.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 04, 2014, 11:28:50 PM
Fox says Tillis gets NC.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 11:28:55 PM
Fox: Tillis wins in NC. R +7
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: © tweed on November 04, 2014, 11:28:55 PM
wtf Happened to Mark Warner?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 11:28:58 PM
Tillis wins !!!!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Biden 2020 on November 04, 2014, 11:28:59 PM
I'm going to bed, guys. It's been fun.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 11:29:05 PM
Tillis defeats Hagan per Fox.
Looking R+9 if LA and AK follow.
Looking R+9 if LA and AK follow.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: tmthforu94 on November 04, 2014, 11:29:19 PM
I leave for my staff meeting, come back, and it is looking great for the Republican Party!
What a night!
What a night!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 7,052,770 on November 04, 2014, 11:29:24 PM
From the ashes a fire shall be woken,
A light from the shadows shall spring;
Renewed shall be blade that was broken,
The crownless again shall be king.
A light from the shadows shall spring;
Renewed shall be blade that was broken,
The crownless again shall be king.
That's perfect, actually.
()
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 04, 2014, 11:29:31 PM
Tonight is brutal. Just brutal. I mean, we can't "win" every election but are there ANY bright spots for us tonight?
We have a star that's going to hang on in NH, your stereotypical horrible GOPer going down in flames in PA, and the the door is open for progressives to really take over the Democratic Party. Those are the bright spots.
This is nuts. Progressives aren't a majority in this country, not even close, is the sad reality. This is a wake-up call like 1994 that we need to meet the electorate where it is or face an even worse fate.
Progressives are a bigger chunk of the electorate than you think, they just don't know it.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 11:29:46 PM
Let's really spike the football and take Alaska.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 04, 2014, 11:30:05 PM
Tonight is brutal. Just brutal. I mean, we can't "win" every election but are there ANY bright spots for us tonight?
We have a star that's going to hang on in NH, your stereotypical horrible GOPer going down in flames in PA, and the the door is open for progressives to really take over the Democratic Party. Those are the bright spots.
This is nuts. Progressives aren't a majority in this country, not even close, is the sad reality. This is a wake-up call like 1994 that we need to meet the electorate where it is or face an even worse fate.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Zanas on November 04, 2014, 11:30:11 PM
Dems don't go to the polls ; Dems lose big.
Reps think they won big ; Reps lose two years later because Dems go to the polls.
Ad lib.
Reps think they won big ; Reps lose two years later because Dems go to the polls.
Ad lib.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 11:30:38 PM
Based on early results (0% reporting :P) CA-26 looks better than the usually suggested Republican pickup opportunities; Gorrell is leading Brownley 61-39. DeMaio is narrowly up as well; Bera is barely up. Oddly, Valadao is leading just 52-48; Renteria might end up being a bright spot for Democrats.
EDIT: Another possible upset, this one being an Eastern one I overlooked: with 38% reporting, Bruce Blakeman is leading Kathleen Rice 54-46.
EDIT: Another possible upset, this one being an Eastern one I overlooked: with 38% reporting, Bruce Blakeman is leading Kathleen Rice 54-46.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 11:30:43 PM
Wow. This couldn't have been worse. WTF Warner?!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 11:30:48 PM
This is nuts. Progressives aren't a majority in this country, not even close, is the sad reality. This is a wake-up call like 1994 that we need to meet the electorate where it is or face an even worse fate.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPQR on November 04, 2014, 11:31:11 PM
Dems don't go to the polls ; Dems lose big.
Reps think they won big ; Reps lose two years later because Dems go to the polls.
Ad lib.
Reps think they won big ; Reps lose two years later because Dems go to the polls.
Ad lib.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Beet on November 04, 2014, 11:31:46 PM
Tonight is brutal. Just brutal. I mean, we can't "win" every election but are there ANY bright spots for us tonight?
We have a star that's going to hang on in NH, your stereotypical horrible GOPer going down in flames in PA, and the the door is open for progressives to really take over the Democratic Party. Those are the bright spots.
This is nuts. Progressives aren't a majority in this country, not even close, is the sad reality. This is a wake-up call like 1994 that we need to meet the electorate where it is or face an even worse fate.
Progressives are a bigger chunk of the electorate than you think, they just don't know it.
Lol no. maybe in 10 or 15 years if they make the case to the American people, but not today or within the foreseeable future. Conservatives proved a bigger chunk of the electorate than thought today, by 5-10 points.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Cubby on November 04, 2014, 11:31:56 PM
MSNBC calls Iowa for Ernst.
GOP now has 51 seats
GOP now has 51 seats
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: sg0508 on November 04, 2014, 11:32:29 PM
Tillis wins NC per Fox News.
Mahoney in NY-18 must be a very talented politician (who may win and is ahead as Vosem says), since otherwise NY has been a Dem disaster.
Mahoney in NY-18 must be a very talented politician (who may win and is ahead as Vosem says), since otherwise NY has been a Dem disaster.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: JerryArkansas on November 04, 2014, 11:32:48 PM
Thom Tillis was projected the winner. Wow.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SamInTheSouth on November 04, 2014, 11:33:13 PM
What's with MD-8? That's absurdly close
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 04, 2014, 11:33:29 PM
Can we officially call this a wave election?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Zanas on November 04, 2014, 11:33:51 PM
Tonight is brutal. Just brutal. I mean, we can't "win" every election but are there ANY bright spots for us tonight?
We have a star that's going to hang on in NH, your stereotypical horrible GOPer going down in flames in PA, and the the door is open for progressives to really take over the Democratic Party. Those are the bright spots.
This is nuts. Progressives aren't a majority in this country, not even close, is the sad reality. This is a wake-up call like 1994 that we need to meet the electorate where it is or face an even worse fate.
Progressives are a bigger chunk of the electorate than you think, they just don't know it.
Lol no. maybe in 10 or 15 years if they make the case to the American people, but not today or within the foreseeable future. Conservatives proved a bigger chunk of the electorate that went to the polling stations than thought today, by 5-10 points.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 04, 2014, 11:34:23 PM
This is nuts. Progressives aren't a majority in this country, not even close, is the sad reality. This is a wake-up call like 1994 that we need to meet the electorate where it is or face an even worse fate.
Obama doesn't even try to sell his own policies. It's like he thinks that his primary job is governing and that people are smart enough to figure out for themselves that having health insurance is better than not having health insurance. We need to start picking candidates who know better. I strongly suspect Hillary can do that.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 04, 2014, 11:34:35 PM
Can we officially call this a wave election?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Beagle on November 04, 2014, 11:34:38 PM
This is more thinking out loud than expecting a response, but:
Would MD Gov be where it is right now if Gansler was the nominee?
Would MD Gov be where it is right now if Gansler was the nominee?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 04, 2014, 11:35:08 PM
This is nuts. Progressives aren't a majority in this country, not even close, is the sad reality. This is a wake-up call like 1994 that we need to meet the electorate where it is or face an even worse fate.
Exactly. Pretending that progressive accomplishments are actually horrible, and constantly talking about how you have to work with the reprehensible Republicans isn't the way to do it. Americans are for greater health coverage, for a higher minimum wage, for background checks on guns, for abortion rights, etc etc etc. The Democrats have absolutely no idea how to sell their message. They literally need massive GOP ****-ups fresh in the voters' minds to win anything. That has to change, now.
EDIT: The GOP will do horrible things in their two years here, because that's their agenda. They are there to continue the gravy train for the rich and the white and the well-off. This invariably makes this worse for 90% of us. They make out with the moneybags so they don't care. Are the Democrats going to miss yet another opportunity to sell progressive policy to the American people in 2016? Your move, Hillary.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 11:35:25 PM
This I submit is the most unbelievable result in the nation - a district Obama won by 56%, and it is not as if the Dem incumbent is horribly incompetent, or a crook, or caught sleeping with some teenage boy, etc. In fact, given the NY-11 result, being a crook is not fatal, so I guess that aspect of Maffei is not relevant.
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()
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: illegaloperation on November 04, 2014, 11:36:30 PM
To be honest, I knew the Democrats were in trouble when I saw that Mark Warner just hanging on.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Oak Hills on November 04, 2014, 11:36:36 PM
Can we officially call this a wave election?
I'd say so.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on November 04, 2014, 11:36:44 PM
Well, let's face it. It's worse than 2010.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 11:37:10 PM
This isn't a wave. This is a tsunami.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Yank2133 on November 04, 2014, 11:37:20 PM
Lmao, at Beet moderate heroism. The problem isn't that the Democrats are out of touch with she electorate(which is a stupid assessment since the 2016 electorate isn't going to be this old and this white....), the problem like it has always been is Democrats inability to sell and stand up for their records.
Nobody regardless of party identification likes a pussy, and that is sadly how most of the Democrats come off as.
Nobody regardless of party identification likes a pussy, and that is sadly how most of the Democrats come off as.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 11:37:45 PM
The next President is speaking in Wisconsin
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 04, 2014, 11:38:01 PM
This I submit is the most unbelievable result in the nation - a district Obama won by 56%, and it is not as if the Dem incumbent is horribly incompetent, or a crook, or caught sleeping with some teenage boy, etc. In fact, given the NY-11 result, being a crook is not fatal, so I guess that aspect of Maffei is not relevant.
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Being a crook is never fatal in New York. It just adds character.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 11:38:05 PM
Quinn loses in IL.
These are out: LA, AK, VA, and possibly NH.
I think if three go GOP, and the GOP picks up 10 or more House seats, it will be a route.
These are out: LA, AK, VA, and possibly NH.
I think if three go GOP, and the GOP picks up 10 or more House seats, it will be a route.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: StateBoiler on November 04, 2014, 11:38:08 PM
This is Obama's version of the 2006 election for Bush, which resulted in Rumsfeld getting told to resign.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 11:38:40 PM
Rod Blum is leading by 111 votes. King has a checkmark, and Loebsack has been reelected too. Young should be fine, but Blum/Murphy is just as close as it can get.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on November 04, 2014, 11:38:45 PM
Well, Republicans got 6 seats already, with AK, IA and of course Louisiana being still in play.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 11:39:18 PM
()
When it rains, it pours. However, Terry is still sucking wind in Nebraska. Hopefully that loser will lose.
When it rains, it pours. However, Terry is still sucking wind in Nebraska. Hopefully that loser will lose.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on November 04, 2014, 11:39:27 PM
These are out: LA, AK, VA, and possibly NH.
::)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Donnie on November 04, 2014, 11:40:07 PM
« Reply #29 on: Today at 05:53:23 am »
Here all my predictions for the US senate for the tight races 0-10% with win
probabilities in %. (R) save (above 10%) pickups: WV, MT, SD.
Alaska
Begich (D)*
Sullivan (R) pickup by 0-1%. Chance of (R) win 69%.
Arkansas
Pryor (D) *
Cotton (R) pickup by 6-10%. Chance of (R) win 98%.
Colorado
Udall (D) *
Gardner (R) pickup by 1-3%. Chance of (R) win 88%.
Georgia
Nunn (D)
Perdue (R) hold by 3-6% in runoff. Chance of (R) win 92%.
Iowa
Braley (D) *
Ernst (R) pickup by 1-3%. Chance of (R) win 78%.
Kansas
Roberts (R) * hold by 1-3%. Chance of (R) win 71%.
Orman (I)
Kentucky
McConnell (R) * hold by 6-10%. Chance of (R) win 99%.
Grimes (D)
Louisiana
Landrieu (D) *
Cassidy (R) pickup by 3-6% in runoff. Chance of (R) win 90%.
New Hampshire
Shaheen (D) * hold by 0-1%. Chance of (D) win 58%.
Brown (R)
North Carolina
Hagan (D) *
Tillis (R) pickup by 0-1%. Chance of (R) win 52%.
NET GAIN: (R) +9
If Sullivan wins in Alaska, I will be 9/9 for tonight :) :)
Here all my predictions for the US senate for the tight races 0-10% with win
probabilities in %. (R) save (above 10%) pickups: WV, MT, SD.
Alaska
Begich (D)*
Sullivan (R) pickup by 0-1%. Chance of (R) win 69%.
Arkansas
Pryor (D) *
Cotton (R) pickup by 6-10%. Chance of (R) win 98%.
Colorado
Udall (D) *
Gardner (R) pickup by 1-3%. Chance of (R) win 88%.
Georgia
Nunn (D)
Perdue (R) hold by 3-6% in runoff. Chance of (R) win 92%.
Iowa
Braley (D) *
Ernst (R) pickup by 1-3%. Chance of (R) win 78%.
Kansas
Roberts (R) * hold by 1-3%. Chance of (R) win 71%.
Orman (I)
Kentucky
McConnell (R) * hold by 6-10%. Chance of (R) win 99%.
Grimes (D)
Louisiana
Landrieu (D) *
Cassidy (R) pickup by 3-6% in runoff. Chance of (R) win 90%.
New Hampshire
Shaheen (D) * hold by 0-1%. Chance of (D) win 58%.
Brown (R)
North Carolina
Hagan (D) *
Tillis (R) pickup by 0-1%. Chance of (R) win 52%.
NET GAIN: (R) +9
If Sullivan wins in Alaska, I will be 9/9 for tonight :) :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 11:41:03 PM
AMANDA CURTIS KEEPING IT CLOSER IN MONTANA THAN GRIMES IN KENTUCKY!!! LOLOLOLOL
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 11:42:02 PM
Well, Republicans got 6 seats already, with AK, IA and of course Louisiana being still in play.
"In play" doesn't count. :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr. Reactionary on November 04, 2014, 11:42:23 PM
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 11:42:45 PM
Oh, Ernst is from Red Oak, Iowa, which was the town my grandfather grew up in. Small world.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 11:44:11 PM
AMANDA CURTIS KEEPING IT CLOSER IN MONTANA THAN GRIMES IN KENTUCKY!!! LOLOLOLOL
Kentucky is done counting while MT is just 9% in, but still, lol
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maistre on November 04, 2014, 11:44:23 PM
One bright spot for Dems - AZ.
IA has been called.
Well, Republicans got 6 seats already, with AK, IA and of course Louisiana being still in play.
IA has been called.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 7,052,770 on November 04, 2014, 11:44:54 PM
To recap, Iowa just elected a Senator who honestly believes the U.N. is going to round up American farmers and force them to move to cities.
Surely we can all agree that Mississippi isn't America's laughingstock anymore? Getting that monkey off our backs might have been worth tonight in the long run...
Surely we can all agree that Mississippi isn't America's laughingstock anymore? Getting that monkey off our backs might have been worth tonight in the long run...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Yank2133 on November 04, 2014, 11:45:57 PM
To recap, Iowa just elected a Senator who honestly believes the U.N. is going to round up American farmers and force them to move to cities.
Surely we can all agree that Mississippi isn't America's laughingstock anymore? Getting that monkey off our backs might have been worth tonight in the long run...
Surely we can all agree that Mississippi isn't America's laughingstock anymore? Getting that monkey off our backs might have been worth tonight in the long run...
Nah, SC is still holding the trophy.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 11:46:11 PM
To recap, Iowa just elected a Senator who honestly believes the U.N. is going to round up American farmers and force them to move to cities.
Surely we can all agree that Mississippi isn't America's laughingstock anymore? Getting that monkey off our backs might have been worth tonight in the long run...
Surely we can all agree that Mississippi isn't America's laughingstock anymore? Getting that monkey off our backs might have been worth tonight in the long run...
They elected a senator who knows how to cut the pork. :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 11:46:32 PM
Horsford is leading Hardy 48-47 with 0% in. Is the Election Day vote in Nevada supposed to favor the Democrats or the GOP?
EDIT: NH-1 called for Guinta, which makes a net R+9. Graham's victory is looking more and more impressive by the second.
EDIT: NH-1 called for Guinta, which makes a net R+9. Graham's victory is looking more and more impressive by the second.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maistre on November 04, 2014, 11:46:51 PM
To recap, Iowa just elected a Senator who honestly believes the U.N. is going to round up American farmers and force them to move to cities.
Surely we can all agree that Mississippi isn't America's laughingstock anymore? Getting that monkey off our backs might have been worth tonight in the long run...
Surely we can all agree that Mississippi isn't America's laughingstock anymore? Getting that monkey off our backs might have been worth tonight in the long run...
Nah, SC is still holding the trophy.
What did we do?
Recently I mean. :P
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 04, 2014, 11:47:49 PM
Scott Brown called Shaheen to concede. Thank you based God.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on November 04, 2014, 11:48:30 PM
AMANDA CURTIS KEEPING IT CLOSER IN MONTANA THAN GRIMES IN KENTUCKY!!! LOLOLOLOL
Kentucky is done counting while MT is just 9% in, but still, lol
Don't call Kentucky just yet. Bandit said McConnell will lose.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 04, 2014, 11:48:40 PM
Jim Costa is leading Johnny Tacherra by...wait for it...4 votes. Paul Chabot is leading Pete Aguilar 51-49 as well.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 11:48:51 PM
Baker just defeated Coakley in MA.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: I Will Not Be Wrong on November 04, 2014, 11:49:15 PM
J.J is back!!!!!! Always used to read his posts, great to finally see him post again!!! :) :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: CapoteMonster on November 04, 2014, 11:50:17 PM
To be honest, I knew the Democrats were in trouble when I saw that Mark Warner just hanging on.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 11:51:13 PM
This isn't a wave. This is a tsunami.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 04, 2014, 11:51:37 PM
J.J is back!!!!!! Always used to read his posts, great to finally see him post again!!! :) :)
I have been posting sporadically for a few weeks.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 04, 2014, 11:51:56 PM
Baker just defeated Coakley in MA.
i'm devastated
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 7,052,770 on November 04, 2014, 11:52:03 PM
Baker just defeated Coakley in MA.
Haha, how in the world was she the nominee in the first place? She's got to the worst Democratic campaigner of the century, right? Did she call David Ortiz a "Yankees fan" this time?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 11:52:03 PM
Jim Costa is leading Johnny Tacherra by...wait for it...4 votes. Paul Chabot is leading Pete Aguilar 51-49 as well.
Absentees are still a bit biased towards the Pubs in CA.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 04, 2014, 11:52:58 PM
So PA-Gov. and VA-Sen. are the only hopes for DEM!?
And even PA will dwindle to a pathetic single digit Wolf win. ;)
For the record: GOP picked up 8 (!) seats in the State House, expanding our majority to 119-84 and picked up 2 State Senate seats while defending all of our seats. :) PA is truly a GOP state.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: I Will Not Be Wrong on November 04, 2014, 11:53:13 PM
J.J is back!!!!!! Always used to read his posts, great to finally see him post again!!! :) :)
I have been posting sporadically for a few weeks.
But glad you're back! Now Foley needs to win and I am set for bed!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 04, 2014, 11:53:36 PM
IA-1 may go to the republicans.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Umengus on November 04, 2014, 11:53:48 PM
To be honest, I knew the Democrats were in trouble when I saw that Mark Warner just hanging on.
and Ernst projected winner very fast and crist losing
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: GaussLaw on November 04, 2014, 11:54:47 PM
So PA-Gov. and VA-Sen. are the only hopes for DEM!?
And even PA will dwindle to a pathetic single digit Wolf win. ;)
For the record: GOP picked up 8 (!) seats in the State House, expanding our majority to 119-84 and picked up 2 State Senate seats while defending all of our seats. :) PA is truly a GOP state.
Wow. Corbett losing was truly pathetic then. Just like Cuccinelli; GOP downballot, Dem upballot.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 04, 2014, 11:55:47 PM
Brown ran an incredible race in New Hampshire.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 04, 2014, 11:56:02 PM
Brown concedes the obvious in NH.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Cryptic on November 04, 2014, 11:57:10 PM
MSNBC projects Warner wins. At least the GOP gains won't break double digits.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Umengus on November 04, 2014, 11:57:23 PM
read daily kos is a pleasure now...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 04, 2014, 11:58:15 PM
Brown ran an incredible race in New Hampshire.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on November 04, 2014, 11:58:37 PM
Two things. I'll have more to say about this later.
1. Congrats, Phil.
2. Junk country.
1. Congrats, Phil.
2. Junk country.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 04, 2014, 11:59:04 PM
()
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Beagle on November 04, 2014, 11:59:08 PM
read daily kos is a pleasure now...
I made the mistake of going into the comments, forgetting that this is not DKE, but rather regular Kos. I strongly advise against that.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 05, 2014, 12:00:35 AM
Shaheen wins the luckiest politician of the year award. How did she pull that off. Brown won all of the places he need to win.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 12:01:18 AM
On the bright side, looks like we've averted complete disaster in Virginia. Warner currently up 13,000 votes with >99% in.
Imagine if someone posted Warner surviving as a "bright side" yesterday.
Imagine if someone posted Warner surviving as a "bright side" yesterday.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Ab1234mdusr on November 05, 2014, 12:02:21 AM
The defeat of Barrow and Rahall has spelled the end of an era.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 12:02:37 AM
From the ashes a fire shall be woken,
A light from the shadows shall spring;
Renewed shall be blade that was broken,
The crownless again shall be king.
A light from the shadows shall spring;
Renewed shall be blade that was broken,
The crownless again shall be king.
That's perfect, actually.
()
LOL, I'm stealing this.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 12:02:58 AM
Democratic WTF bright spot: with 88% reporting, Doug Owens is leading Mia Love in UT-4...by a margin of 52-45.
EDIT: In uncalled Eastern news, Rice is out to her first lead over Blakeman of the night, 51-49, with 81% reporting. With 76% reporting, Dan Bongino is leading John Delaney 52-46 -- I think this one will be called soon.
EDIT: In uncalled Eastern news, Rice is out to her first lead over Blakeman of the night, 51-49, with 81% reporting. With 76% reporting, Dan Bongino is leading John Delaney 52-46 -- I think this one will be called soon.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 05, 2014, 12:03:17 AM
Scott wins in FL.
VA will go to a recount.
VA will go to a recount.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 05, 2014, 12:04:21 AM
Another huge surprise.
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Beagle on November 05, 2014, 12:05:19 AM
Democratic WTF bright spot: with 88% reporting, Doug Owens is leading Mia Love in UT-4...by a margin of 52-45.
Cough, <curseofCain>, cough...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 12:05:51 AM
100% counted in NY-18, and Maloney finished 1,500 votes ahead of Hayworth. He's probably won, but I don't think we'll see a call there for a bit. 92% in IA-1, and Rod Blum is leading Patrick Murphy 51-49; this one's not quite in the bag, but it looks very likely.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on November 05, 2014, 12:06:40 AM
Scott wins in FL.
Wrong board...
Oh, that's you, J.J. Why am I even bother?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KEmperor on November 05, 2014, 12:07:12 AM
Rep. Tim Bishop (D- NY 1) finally goes down after all these years.
You can say that again. Such a good night.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 05, 2014, 12:07:27 AM
Wow, UT-04... I have no words.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 12:07:42 AM
With 67% in, Van Hollen has upped his lead to 54-46. Unlike his neighbor Delaney, it looks like he will pull this one out.
EDIT: It's already been called, but Emanuel Cleaver has been held to a 51-45 margin by Jacob Turk -- I recall KCDem made a satirical thread about Cleaver being endangered.
EDIT: It's already been called, but Emanuel Cleaver has been held to a 51-45 margin by Jacob Turk -- I recall KCDem made a satirical thread about Cleaver being endangered.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Umengus on November 05, 2014, 12:08:41 AM
Democratic WTF bright spot: with 88% reporting, Doug Owens is leading Mia Love in UT-4...by a margin of 52-45.
Cough, <curseofCain>, cough...
not a surprise for me. It's the second time that the girl loses a race that she must win...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 12:10:07 AM
Scott Brown called Shaheen to concede. Thank you based God.
Thank god they nominated a carpetbagger. Anyone else, we'd be looking at one less Senate seat now. Same for Gillespie. Good lord.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 12:10:09 AM
In Washington, Suzan DelBene was thought to be endangered, but she's leading 55-45 and should be fine. Denny Heck is just barely beating his unheralded challenger Joyce McDonald 51-49, with 28% reporting.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on November 05, 2014, 12:10:24 AM
Landrieu just overtook Cassidy by 0.3% with 97.4% precincts in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 05, 2014, 12:11:10 AM
Democratic WTF bright spot: with 88% reporting, Doug Owens is leading Mia Love in UT-4...by a margin of 52-45.
That should count as an honorary pickup for the Democrats if they win, despite it technically not being a pickup.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 12:11:57 AM
Democratic WTF bright spot: with 88% reporting, Doug Owens is leading Mia Love in UT-4...by a margin of 52-45.
EDIT: In uncalled Eastern news, Rice is out to her first lead over Blakeman of the night, 51-49, with 81% reporting. With 76% reporting, Dan Bongino is leading John Delaney 52-46 -- I think this one will be called soon.
EDIT: In uncalled Eastern news, Rice is out to her first lead over Blakeman of the night, 51-49, with 81% reporting. With 76% reporting, Dan Bongino is leading John Delaney 52-46 -- I think this one will be called soon.
This election has a lot of extremely strange results on both sides, unfortunately, much more favorable ones on the GOP side.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 05, 2014, 12:12:02 AM
On the bright side, looks like we've averted complete disaster in Virginia. Warner currently up 13,000 votes with >99% in.
Imagine if someone posted Warner surviving as a "bright side" yesterday.
Imagine if someone posted Warner surviving as a "bright side" yesterday.
Technically, Gillespie can ask for a recount in VA, says the Independent from New York who said that the only way Warner was going to lose if he murdered someone and they found his prints on the murder weapon.
Impressive almost win for Gillespie.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 12:13:31 AM
On the bright side, looks like we've averted complete disaster in Virginia. Warner currently up 13,000 votes with >99% in.
Imagine if someone posted Warner surviving as a "bright side" yesterday.
Imagine if someone posted Warner surviving as a "bright side" yesterday.
Technically, Gillespie can ask for a recount in VA, says the Independent from New York who said that the only way Warner was going to lose if he murdered someone and they found his prints on the murder weapon.
Impressive almost win for Gillespie.
He can if he wants, but he won't be making up that many votes in a recount no matter what.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Representative Joe Mad on November 05, 2014, 12:14:01 AM
With 67% in, Van Hollen has upped his lead to 54-46. Unlike his neighbor Delaney, it looks like he will pull this one out.
EDIT: It's already been called, but Emanuel Cleaver has been held to a 51-45 margin by Jacob Turk -- I recall KCDem made a satirical thread about Cleaver being endangered.
EDIT: It's already been called, but Emanuel Cleaver has been held to a 51-45 margin by Jacob Turk -- I recall KCDem made a satirical thread about Cleaver being endangered.
That one surprised me a bit. I never had doubt Cleaver would win (Turk is a perennial candidate that has been running since 2006 or 2008, as I recall) but that is pretty close for him.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 12:15:09 AM
Democratic WTF bright spot: with 88% reporting, Doug Owens is leading Mia Love in UT-4...by a margin of 52-45.
That should count as an honorary pickup for the Democrats if they win, despite it technically not being a pickup.
That should count as, like, 5. If Owens pulls it out -- and it looks very likely right now -- I think he'll be the only Congressman sitting in a seat that voted over 60% for the opposite presidential candidate, and UT-4 approached 70.
In other western news, Horsford leads by 298 votes. Capps is leading Mitchum 51-49; Gorrell is leading Brownley by 24, and even though there's only 0% in I think that race can be pencilled in. Honda leads Khanna by 6 in a bright spot for progressive Democrats. Bera, McNerney, and Costa are all in very close races, and DeMaio is narrowly leading Peters. Garamendi and Ruiz look OK. Lieu, Chu, and Sanchez all being held to very unimpressive margins in the LA area; they're all below 55%. Chabot is still edging out Aguilar in what was supposed to be the most solid Democratic pickup.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: I Will Not Be Wrong on November 05, 2014, 12:15:44 AM
Wow, thought for sure Mia Love would win!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Beagle on November 05, 2014, 12:16:11 AM
So, who gets the second Solomon Ortiz Memorial Award for being caught sleeping this time around? Delaney? There are a lot who are in close races and the size of Maffei's loss is certainly unexpected, but I think that MD-6 is the only one in the loss column that Dems were not worried about.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 12:16:57 AM
In an Eastern this-shouldn't-have-to-be-a-bright-spot for Democrats, Van Hollen is projected as the winner. With 86% counted, Bongino vs. Delaney is tightening; Bongino is leading just 50-48.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 7,052,770 on November 05, 2014, 12:17:37 AM
So can we officially say Love lost because of racism? Or did the Dem guy just outwork/outconnect her?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Cryptic on November 05, 2014, 12:17:44 AM
Ignoring the fact it's a midterm year, 2014 is shaping up to be the GOP version of 2012. The polls were in the right direction, but actually underestimated their party's strength. They carried nearly every toss up. And they've even picked up a few races no one thought they would.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on November 05, 2014, 12:18:13 AM
First printout for Hawaii US Senate and Hawaii US House CD 1:
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 05, 2014, 12:18:14 AM
Scott wins in FL.
Wrong board...
Oh, that's you, J.J. Why am I even bother?
Just adding to another post.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Ljube on November 05, 2014, 12:21:47 AM
Can Gillespie make up for Warner's advantage with military absentee ballots?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Smash255 on November 05, 2014, 12:22:31 AM
NY-4, closer than expected, but with 100% in Rice 52.66-47.24
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Beagle on November 05, 2014, 12:24:59 AM
Can Gillespie make up for Warner's advantage with military absentee ballots?
No. No Virginia election in the recent years hasn't gone without a close vote and no Virginia election* did not see the Dems pick up at least 0.3% on absentees, including the military.
* Well, other than Deeds. But still, we've been here before, Warner will be fine.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2014, 12:25:04 AM
NY-4, closer than expected, but with 100% in Rice 52.66-47.24
Rice was advertising on NYC broadcast TV for a reason, albeit in pretty light rotation. It might have put her over the top. Blakemann didn't run any broadcast ads that I saw.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Napoleon on November 05, 2014, 12:25:51 AM
Can Gillespie make up for Warner's advantage with military absentee ballots?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 12:26:01 AM
Costa, who was up 4 votes, is now down 17 to little-known Republican Johnny Tacherra. Hardy has taken the lead over Horsford in NV-4 by 388 votes. There's a sh**tload of CA races that are very close, but the only Democrats that are losing are Brownley (stick a fork in her, she's done), Costa, and Peters, while (takes a breath) Garamendi, Bera, Capps, Liu, Chu, and Sanchez are all just barely leading. Republicans also look like they're retaining CA-31, which should really count as a pickup, though it's not as impressive as Ds retaining UT-4. Funnily enough, Ruiz, who was thought of as very vulnerable early on, looks like he will be just fine.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Frodo on November 05, 2014, 12:26:08 AM
On the bright side, looks like we've averted complete disaster in Virginia. Warner currently up 13,000 votes with >99% in.
Imagine if someone posted Warner surviving as a "bright side" yesterday.
Imagine if someone posted Warner surviving as a "bright side" yesterday.
Technically, Gillespie can ask for a recount in VA, says the Independent from New York who said that the only way Warner was going to lose if he murdered someone and they found his prints on the murder weapon.
Impressive almost win for Gillespie.
He can if he wants, but he won't be making up that many votes in a recount no matter what.
You (and other Democrats) got cocky before this election, and look what happened. Don't count Ed Gillespie out just yet.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2014, 12:27:21 AM
TX-23, ME-2, NV-4, MD-6 may go Republican. Wow
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 12:27:40 AM
In UT-4, the 88% reporting is apparently a mistake; the district is down to just 26% reporting. Owens leading was not, but his lead is down to 50-47. Even if these are just Democratic places reporting and Love pulls this out, she's definitely cemented her reputation as a chronic underperformer.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Smash255 on November 05, 2014, 12:27:57 AM
With 67% in, Van Hollen has upped his lead to 54-46. Unlike his neighbor Delaney, it looks like he will pull this one out.
EDIT: It's already been called, but Emanuel Cleaver has been held to a 51-45 margin by Jacob Turk -- I recall KCDem made a satirical thread about Cleaver being endangered.
EDIT: It's already been called, but Emanuel Cleaver has been held to a 51-45 margin by Jacob Turk -- I recall KCDem made a satirical thread about Cleaver being endangered.
Van Hollen wins by a bit more and Delaney holds on. EVERYTHING out in both districts in Montgomery.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr. Smith on November 05, 2014, 12:28:10 AM
Has the Columbus County thing been resolved yet? Would that be enough to switch NC back to Hagan?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 12:29:06 AM
And Republicans are up to a gain of 10, as back east IA-1 is projected for Republican Rod Blum! We won't have to deal with the confusion of two Democrats in swing states named Patrick Murphy, and Iowa has its first R-majority congressional delegation since before 2006 (and the first time it has 2 R Senators since before 1984).
EDIT: In Democratic actual-pickup news, 62% is counted in NE-2 and Ashford leads 49-46.
EDIT: In Democratic actual-pickup news, 62% is counted in NE-2 and Ashford leads 49-46.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mogrovejo on November 05, 2014, 12:29:34 AM
Ignoring the fact it's a midterm year, 2014 is shaping up to be the GOP version of 2012. The polls were in the right direction, but actually underestimated their party's strength. They carried nearly every toss up. And they've even picked up a few races no one thought they would.
Per Nate Silver:
The pre-election polling averages in the 10 most competitive Senate races had a 6-percentage point Democratic bias as compared to the votes counted in each state so far.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/liveblog/special-coverage-the-2014-midterms/?#livepress-update-20407872
The only thing we know about systematic polling failure: sometimes it will happen and it's impossible to predict which party will benefit from it.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 12:33:21 AM
Funnily enough, Joe Heck -- who's opponent, Erin Bilbray, is a real politician who ran a real campaign -- is outperforming Dina Titus right now, who faced a complete no-name.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 05, 2014, 12:33:22 AM
Vosem, you need to stop projecting CA from absentee ballot tallies (and that is all that has been counted, and will be counted for another hour at least). Costa for example will win rather easily. Hispanics don't vote much absentee.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SamInTheSouth on November 05, 2014, 12:34:34 AM
So can we officially say Love lost because of racism? Or did the Dem guy just outwork/outconnect her?
Did Brown just lose in very liberal Maryland because of racism?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 12:36:03 AM
On the bright side, looks like we've averted complete disaster in Virginia. Warner currently up 13,000 votes with >99% in.
Imagine if someone posted Warner surviving as a "bright side" yesterday.
Imagine if someone posted Warner surviving as a "bright side" yesterday.
Technically, Gillespie can ask for a recount in VA, says the Independent from New York who said that the only way Warner was going to lose if he murdered someone and they found his prints on the murder weapon.
Impressive almost win for Gillespie.
He can if he wants, but he won't be making up that many votes in a recount no matter what.
You (and other Democrats) got cocky before this election, and look what happened. Don't count Ed Gillespie out just yet.
Uh, is this a joke? It's completely implausible to make up 13,000 votes in a recount, unless there's a bunch of uncounted ballots yet to be discovered. But since this is Virginia and not Illinois or Wisconsin, the chances of that seem pretty slim. It's hard enough to make up 1,000 votes in a recount, much less 13x that.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 12:38:21 AM
Vosem, you need to stop projecting CA from absentee ballot tallies (and that is all that has been counted, and will be counted for another hour at least). Costa for example will win rather easily. Hispanics don't vote much absentee.
I'm tryna work with what I got, Torie. And Costa has a lead of 220 votes: even if Election Day returns favor him and he wins, this is a seat that was universally thought Safe D where the incumbent is getting quite the scare.
What do you think the absentee results say?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 05, 2014, 12:39:33 AM
On the bright side, looks like we've averted complete disaster in Virginia. Warner currently up 13,000 votes with >99% in.
Imagine if someone posted Warner surviving as a "bright side" yesterday.
Imagine if someone posted Warner surviving as a "bright side" yesterday.
Technically, Gillespie can ask for a recount in VA, says the Independent from New York who said that the only way Warner was going to lose if he murdered someone and they found his prints on the murder weapon.
Impressive almost win for Gillespie.
He can if he wants, but he won't be making up that many votes in a recount no matter what.
You (and other Democrats) got cocky before this election, and look what happened. Don't count Ed Gillespie out just yet.
Uh, is this a joke? It's completely implausible to make up 13,000 votes in a recount, unless there's a bunch of uncounted ballots yet to be discovered. But since this is Virginia and not Illinois or Wisconsin, the chances of that seem pretty slim. It's hard enough to make up 1,000 votes in a recount, much less 13x that.
All precincts were counted, but that was only 95% of the ballots. I'm guessing absentees
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 05, 2014, 12:42:31 AM
Maffei did the tried and true tactic of having a typical Blue Dog voting record, and then losing a D+5 district by 18 points. Good riddance to that worthless trash.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 12:43:20 AM
In unrelated, Eastern news, Kathleen Rice has received a checkmark. Will Hurd is leading Pete Gallego 50-47 with 85% in; bar something unexpected, Hurd should be called as the winner soon. Most too-close-to-call races left east of the Four Corners are either very slow counters: in ME-2, with 49% in, Poliquin leads 46-43; in NE-2, with 62% in, Ashford leads 49-46; and in MN-8, with 61% reporting, Nolan leads 49-47; headed for an acrimonious recount, which would be NY-18 and NY-25; and places where what's left will cut the lead down strongly, so MD-6, where Bongino leads 50-48 but what's out is strongly Democratic. Those six are all that's left east of the Four Corners (excepting TX-23, which to me looks like it'll be getting a checkmark any minute now). West of the Four Corners, there are still lots of things which are unclear.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 05, 2014, 12:44:13 AM
Maffei did the tried and true tactic of having a typical Blue Dog voting record, and then losing a D+5 district by 18 points. Good riddance to that worthless trash.
That's the big silver lining here. Enough with the Blue Dogs and their pandering to the right. Be gone with ye!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Beagle on November 05, 2014, 12:44:20 AM
Considering the size of the wave, Gary Peters must really be an amazing retail politician. He's currently running ahead of Franken and Durbin (!) in the margins.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 05, 2014, 12:44:23 AM
Last guesses on Alaska?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 05, 2014, 12:44:29 AM
In unrelated, Eastern news, Kathleen Rice has received a checkmark. Will Hurd is leading Pete Gallego 50-47 with 85% in; bar something unexpected, Hurd should be called as the winner soon. Most too-close-to-call races left east of the Four Corners are either very slow counters: in ME-2, with 49% in, Poliquin leads 46-43; in NE-2, with 62% in, Ashford leads 49-46; and in MN-8, with 61% reporting, Nolan leads 49-47; headed for an acrimonious recount, which would be NY-18 and NY-25; and places where what's left will cut the lead down strongly, so MD-6, where Bongino leads 50-48 but what's out is strongly Democratic. Those six are all that's left east of the Four Corners (excepting TX-23, which to me looks like it'll be getting a checkmark any minute now). West of the Four Corners, there are still lots of things which are unclear.
What's the House shift looking like about R+10 or maybe more?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Flake on November 05, 2014, 12:45:40 AM
So can we officially say Love lost because of racism? Or did the Dem guy just outwork/outconnect her?
Did Brown just lose in very liberal Maryland because of racism?
You do realize that in mormon religion this (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_people_and_Mormonism) is in it.
There's a reason Love lost, and it's not because Owen is a good candidate.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 12:46:25 AM
It's R+10 right now. TX-23 will make it R+11. There'll definitely be at least a few pickups in CA, but most of the uncalled Easterns look like they'll break Democratic, except ME-2. R+mid teens will be the final result; Walden will definitely exceed his goal of 245. 250 looks possible but unlikely.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 05, 2014, 12:46:52 AM
For UT-04, it looks like only Salt Lake County is left to count. Oh lord.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 12:47:09 AM
Considering the size of the wave, Gary Peters must really be an amazing retail politician. He's currently running ahead of Franken and Durbin (!) in the margins.
Franken and Durbin didn't have Terri Lynn Land as their opponent.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr. Smith on November 05, 2014, 12:47:50 AM
Sullivan duh!
But if Begich can pull a reverse Corey Gardner, I'm going to have a lot of morbid laughter as I now hold for Tom Wolf's victory. Sort of like what I once would've had if McConnell had actually been ousted from this
But if Begich can pull a reverse Corey Gardner, I'm going to have a lot of morbid laughter as I now hold for Tom Wolf's victory. Sort of like what I once would've had if McConnell had actually been ousted from this
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 05, 2014, 12:48:51 AM
It's R+10 right now. TX-23 will make it R+11. There'll definitely be at least a few pickups in CA, but most of the uncalled Easterns look like they'll break Democratic, except ME-2. R+mid teens will be the final result; Walden will definitely exceed his goal of 245. 250 looks possible but unlikely.
Well past expectations as well.
Amazing how Louise Slaughter almost lost in NY-25.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 05, 2014, 12:49:20 AM
Maffei did the tried and true tactic of having a typical Blue Dog voting record, and then losing a D+5 district by 18 points. Good riddance to that worthless trash.
That's the big silver lining here. Enough with the Blue Dogs and their pandering to the right. Be gone with ye!
It's like they never learned from all the other worthless Blue Dogs losing.
Meanwhile reasonably liberal Yarmuth wins a D+4 district by 28 points.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 05, 2014, 12:49:52 AM
Vosem, you need to stop projecting CA from absentee ballot tallies (and that is all that has been counted, and will be counted for another hour at least). Costa for example will win rather easily. Hispanics don't vote much absentee.
I'm tryna work with what I got, Torie. And Costa has a lead of 220 votes: even if Election Day returns favor him and he wins, this is a seat that was universally thought Safe D where the incumbent is getting quite the scare.
What do you think the absentee results say?
Absentees have a big Pub lean in low SES CD's (particularly ones with a high percentage of Hispanics), less so in high ones, none in say the West LA CD . The CA-26 numbers are however rather shocking. That one does look like a Pub pickup. There are a lot of today votes counted in CA-07, and that one is skin tight.
My wild guess is that the Pubs will net about 15 seats in the House.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 12:50:15 AM
UT-4 is doing everything backwards; they had 88% reporting 20 minutes ago and now they're down to 10%. Owens is leading 50-47. With those numbers, Love could actually still win this in non-embarrassing fashion. This was a bigger overreaction than when we thought a Libertarian was knocking off Andre Carson (who beat the Republican 55-42; seems like an underperformance, but Democrats were routinely held to single-digits in this district's predecessor, including in 2006, so I'd say Carson actually did pretty well).
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: The Free North on November 05, 2014, 12:51:06 AM
Maffei did the tried and true tactic of having a typical Blue Dog voting record, and then losing a D+5 district by 18 points. Good riddance to that worthless trash.
His ads were also centered on the fact that his opponent left a loaded gun in his car which was then coincidently used in a shooting later on.
Its surprising to say the least since that district includes Syracuse and Maffei ran a pretty standard democratic campaign with a huge focus on women's issues
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPC on November 05, 2014, 12:51:13 AM
Last guesses on Alaska?
Sullivan 56%, Begich 41%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 12:52:35 AM
It's R+10 right now. TX-23 will make it R+11. There'll definitely be at least a few pickups in CA, but most of the uncalled Easterns look like they'll break Democratic, except ME-2. R+mid teens will be the final result; Walden will definitely exceed his goal of 245. 250 looks possible but unlikely.
Well past expectations as well.
Amazing how Louise Slaughter almost lost in NY-25.
With 100% in, she leads by 582 votes. If late votes break to Assini, or if there is a recount, Assini could still win, which would be freaking amazing. We actually had a touted candidate here in 2012 in Maggie Brooks, as opposed to Assini who is a no-name; Brooks got crushed by 14 points, but I think if she'd decided to run again she would certainly have beaten Slaughter this year.
EDIT: In western news, my accounts of Brownley's demise were exaggerated. The district just jumped from just-absentees to 42% reporting, and Brownley has gone from a 24-point deficit to a 206-vote lead. Looks like this one will go down the wire. On present numbers, the only seat that's flipping in CA would be DeMaio beating Peters, as Chabot is maintaining a narrow lead over Aguilar -- both are absentee only, though. With 41% reporting, Costa has also taken a lead...of seventeen votes. Amazing.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 05, 2014, 12:52:54 AM
Fox is projecting a minimum of a 12 seat gain in the House; this would tie the post WW II numbers. If so, it will be a route.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 05, 2014, 12:56:11 AM
Looks like Pryor will win get less than 40%. So maybe he is Blanche Lincoln :P
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 12:58:31 AM
Strange in New York: with 100% reporting, Kathleen Rice has a lead of 64-36 over Bruce Blakeman. I don't doubt she's won, but the lead was switching back and forth here and when last I checked, with reporting %s somewhere in the 90s, Rice had 53% of the vote. Mistake?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 12:58:52 AM
It's pretty amazing that Shaheen and Gwen Graham were able to survive this wave.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 05, 2014, 01:00:14 AM
Nunn is at 45% now...she's only doing 1 point worse than Anthony Brown ;)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2014, 01:00:45 AM
First Alaska results:
2014 GENERAL ELECTION
November 4, 2014
Unofficial Results
Date:11/04/14
Time:20:52:45
Page:1 of 8
Registered Voters 509011 - Cards Cast 70425 13.84%
Num. Report Precinct 441 - Num. Reporting 101 22.90%
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts
441
Precincts Reporting
101
22.9 %
Times Counted
70425/509011
13.8 %
Total Votes
69739
Begich, Mark
DEM 30816 44.19%
Fish, Mark S.
LIB 2544 3.65%
Gianoutsos, Ted
NA 1394 2.00%
Sullivan, Dan
REP 34649 49.68%
Write-in Votes
336
0.48%
2014 GENERAL ELECTION
November 4, 2014
Unofficial Results
Date:11/04/14
Time:20:52:45
Page:1 of 8
Registered Voters 509011 - Cards Cast 70425 13.84%
Num. Report Precinct 441 - Num. Reporting 101 22.90%
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts
441
Precincts Reporting
101
22.9 %
Times Counted
70425/509011
13.8 %
Total Votes
69739
Begich, Mark
DEM 30816 44.19%
Fish, Mark S.
LIB 2544 3.65%
Gianoutsos, Ted
NA 1394 2.00%
Sullivan, Dan
REP 34649 49.68%
Write-in Votes
336
0.48%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Smash255 on November 05, 2014, 01:01:07 AM
Strange in New York: with 100% reporting, Kathleen Rice has a lead of 64-36 over Bruce Blakeman. I don't doubt she's won, but the lead was switching back and forth here and when last I checked, with reporting %s somewhere in the 90s, Rice had 53% of the vote. Mistake?
Yes, she has 85,294 according to the Nassau County BOE 52.66-47.24 .1 write in
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 05, 2014, 01:01:56 AM
Looks like Pryor will win get less than 40%. So maybe he is Blanche Lincoln :P
Wow, the polls were off there. It had been considered competitive until recently, and still it seemed like he was going to lose by high single digits. I'm think Arkansas may be unwinnable for the Democrats. And yes, that includes Hillary.
It's pretty amazing that Shaheen and Gwen Graham were able to survive this wave.
Doug Owens would be impressive if he wins.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 05, 2014, 01:02:34 AM
UT-04 seems a little screwy, but CNN says Love has a 1 point lead now with 18% (?) reporting after they just had 80+% reporting.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 05, 2014, 01:02:51 AM
Sullivan up 49-46 in exit poll. :( I think it's R+8 tonight, with LA being a likely 9th next month.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 05, 2014, 01:04:42 AM
So is Mark Warner going to win or not? I'm not as savvy with remaining precincts and whatnot as some of you.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 01:05:40 AM
Looks like Pryor will win get less than 40%. So maybe he is Blanche Lincoln :P
Wow, the polls were off there. It had been considered competitive until recently, and still it seemed like he was going to lose by high single digits. I'm think Arkansas may be unwinnable for the Democrats. And yes, that includes Hillary.
It's pretty amazing that Shaheen and Gwen Graham were able to survive this wave.
Doug Owens would be impressive if he wins.
Yup, Hillary has no chance in Arkansas, barring massive GOP overreach and backlash in the next two years. Same goes for WV/KY, but most people already knew that.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 05, 2014, 01:05:48 AM
Remember that time Pat Roberts beat some Independent dude by like 10%? Good times.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 01:06:20 AM
In other "impressive juxtaposition" news, Kyrsten Sinema won by 12 percentage points while Raul Grijalva won by 10. Sinema is in a swing, barely-Obama district while Grijalva's is considered Safe D (though he got a scare in 2010). Probably because Sinema behaved like she had a serious threat and campaigned while Grijalva just sat back.
Yes, she has 85,294 according to the Nassau County BOE 52.66-47.24 .1 write in
That sounds more like reality :)
Strange in New York: with 100% reporting, Kathleen Rice has a lead of 64-36 over Bruce Blakeman. I don't doubt she's won, but the lead was switching back and forth here and when last I checked, with reporting %s somewhere in the 90s, Rice had 53% of the vote. Mistake?
Yes, she has 85,294 according to the Nassau County BOE 52.66-47.24 .1 write in
That sounds more like reality :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Holmes on November 05, 2014, 01:08:21 AM
Remember that time Pat Roberts beat some Independent dude by like 10%? Good times.
yas henny, drag them. Your old white man has SLAYN tonight, hunty!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 05, 2014, 01:08:40 AM
Yikes. If exit polls are right Alaska's incumbent curse has dissipated in both SEN and GOV.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 05, 2014, 01:09:32 AM
Where can I get some Alaska results?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 05, 2014, 01:11:16 AM
CNN has Sullivan +6 with 23% reporting but no house or gov results. +6 is solid but it depends on where the vote is from. Not done but don't bet on Begich.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 01:12:24 AM
So is Mark Warner going to win or not? I'm not as savvy with remaining precincts and whatnot as some of you.
The short answer is 'almost certainly'. It's possible that Gillespie will pull this off but it looks very, very doubtful. (Though Gillespie has probably pulled off a future career in elective politics with his performance tonight).
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 05, 2014, 01:12:54 AM
So is Mark Warner going to win or not? I'm not as savvy with remaining precincts and whatnot as some of you.
I can't find any remaining precincts on the map. I think it's just absentees and overseas military vote left.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2014, 01:13:00 AM
Eyeballing what house seats are in, the Alaska results seem Fairbanks-heavy.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 01:13:05 AM
So is Mark Warner going to win or not? I'm not as savvy with remaining precincts and whatnot as some of you.
The short answer is 'almost certainly'. It's possible that Gillespie will pull this off but it looks very, very doubtful. (Though Gillespie has probably pulled off a future career in elective politics with his performance tonight).
And also completely destroyed Warner's VP (and longer shot, presidential) hopes.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 05, 2014, 01:14:08 AM
The Republicans are going to pick up even more house seats.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2014, 01:14:08 AM
Where can I get some Alaska results?
http://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/14GENR/
If that doesn't work due to volume:
http://elect.alaska.net/
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on November 05, 2014, 01:14:18 AM
Either Gillespie goes for Virginia Governor or he works to beat Tim Kaine in 2018.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 05, 2014, 01:14:27 AM
I think my favorite part of the night quickly became the humbling of the Nerd Herd around here. You know, the people that act like Mark Warner is literally God-like. What an absolute joke of a candidate to only beat Gillespie by 1%. I wouldn't even deliver a victory speech if I were him. I'd be too embarrassed.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2014, 01:15:17 AM
CNN has Sullivan +6 with 23% reporting but no house or gov results. +6 is solid but it depends on where the vote is from. Not done but don't bet on Begich.
Young is up 52-40 in AK-House AL.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 01:17:22 AM
In CA, Aguilar has taken a 51-49 lead, or ~1500 votes, with 16% in. With 66% in, Johnny Tacherra is beating Jim Costa by 587 votes, which is the biggest lead we've seen all night. (DeMaio is also ahead, but there's almost nothing counted there). It would be remarkable to see a cornucopia of touted Republican recruits in California lose but see the totally unheralded Tacherra take a seat in Congress.
EDIT: In other news, with 16% reporting in UT-4, Mia Love has taken her first lead of the night, 49-48 over Doug Owens. 97% reporting in TX-23, Hurd leads Gallego 50-48. That's basically insurmountable, there should be a checkmark. Ashford, Nolan, and Poliquin continue to lead in districts where the vote is being counted unbearably slowly. MD-6 has just stopped counting entirely and gone on what DKE likes to call a ganja break. (The NY races, 18 and 25, are finished counting and are just too close to be declared anyway -- I suspect we'll see some similar stuff in CA when all is said and done).
EDIT: In other news, with 16% reporting in UT-4, Mia Love has taken her first lead of the night, 49-48 over Doug Owens. 97% reporting in TX-23, Hurd leads Gallego 50-48. That's basically insurmountable, there should be a checkmark. Ashford, Nolan, and Poliquin continue to lead in districts where the vote is being counted unbearably slowly. MD-6 has just stopped counting entirely and gone on what DKE likes to call a ganja break. (The NY races, 18 and 25, are finished counting and are just too close to be declared anyway -- I suspect we'll see some similar stuff in CA when all is said and done).
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 05, 2014, 01:17:58 AM
So Terry goes down?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 05, 2014, 01:18:06 AM
Congrats Phil!
And congrats to Torie, who I called a hack for predicting that Republicans could gain 20 seats. Looks like he was right and I was wrong.
And congrats to Torie, who I called a hack for predicting that Republicans could gain 20 seats. Looks like he was right and I was wrong.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 05, 2014, 01:18:36 AM
House Elections:
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5422_05_11_14_1_34_27.png)
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5422_05_11_14_1_34_27.png)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: New_Conservative on November 05, 2014, 01:20:01 AM
Baker is about to talk, Polito is talking right now :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: publicunofficial on November 05, 2014, 01:20:38 AM
House Elections:
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5422_05_11_14_1_16_34.png)
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5422_05_11_14_1_16_34.png)
WA-04 and CA-25 are R-on-R races, so might as well shift them to the GOP hold column.
Same with CA-17 for the Democrats.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 05, 2014, 01:23:22 AM
Thanks for the map Fuzzy!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Georg Ebner on November 05, 2014, 01:23:58 AM
In the HOUSE GOP is on course to a new record: 1946 uhey had 246...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 01:24:27 AM
So Terry goes down?
Probably, but there's still 31% left to count and we don't know where that's from. Up 3 points with 69% in is a good place for Ashford to be, though.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 05, 2014, 01:24:50 AM
In the HOUSE GOP is on course to a new record: 1946 uhey had 246...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 01:28:49 AM
Young has won reelection, basically, even though he has no checkmark; same goes for Gabbard. Only absentees in NH-1; Takai leads by 8 points. I don't know if there's a big absentee/Election Day divide in Hawaii, but Djou needs a significant victory with Election Day voters if he wants to go to Congress. Not impossible but it looks like Takai is favored.
EDIT: And, finally, after it being clear for at least the past hour, Will Hurd gets the checkmark in TX-23. Interesting to compare different Romney-Democrats who were thought safe; Patrick Murphy won by double-digits (considering the mood this year, that's freaking amazing -- honorary pickup?), while Gallego went on to lose to an underfunded Anglo opponent.
EDIT: And, finally, after it being clear for at least the past hour, Will Hurd gets the checkmark in TX-23. Interesting to compare different Romney-Democrats who were thought safe; Patrick Murphy won by double-digits (considering the mood this year, that's freaking amazing -- honorary pickup?), while Gallego went on to lose to an underfunded Anglo opponent.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Badger on November 05, 2014, 01:31:19 AM
I think my favorite part of the night quickly became the humbling of the Nerd Herd around here. You know, the people that act like Mark Warner is literally God-like. What an absolute joke of a candidate to only beat Gillespie by 1%. I wouldn't even deliver a victory speech if I were him. I'd be too embarrassed.
And how close did you predict Gillespie would come? Or ever once opine anything prior to the last two weeks indicating Warner wouldn't win easily?
Welcome to the herd.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 05, 2014, 01:32:03 AM
How did Synema win by double digits :o
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 05, 2014, 01:32:06 AM
UT-4 goes into the R column. Called for Love per CNN's website.
50-47 with 99% of the vote in.
50-47 with 99% of the vote in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 05, 2014, 01:33:02 AM
Thanks for the map Fuzzy!
You're welcome! :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: NewYorkExpress on November 05, 2014, 01:34:46 AM
Looks like Pryor will win get less than 40%. So maybe he is Blanche Lincoln :P
Wow, the polls were off there. It had been considered competitive until recently, and still it seemed like he was going to lose by high single digits. I'm think Arkansas may be unwinnable for the Democrats. And yes, that includes Hillary.
It's pretty amazing that Shaheen and Gwen Graham were able to survive this wave.
Doug Owens would be impressive if he wins.
Yup, Hillary has no chance in Arkansas, barring massive GOP overreach and backlash in the next two years. Same goes for WV/KY, but most people already knew that.
Even with GOP overreach, Hillary has no chance in Arkansas... The margin might shrink a little, but she'd still lose by about 15%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 05, 2014, 01:35:10 AM
In the HOUSE GOP is on course to a new record: 1946 uhey had 246...
They had 267 for the 1929-1930 Congress. Naturally the economy did awesome with them that much in control.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 01:35:41 AM
Grimes is losing by 16 points. Obama lost by 17 points in 2008.
Looks like Obama has officially killed off the Appalachian/Southern Democrats. And a bit too soon, frankly. We should've run Hillary in 2008 and Obama in 2016 instead. The ages of both would've been better suited for this too. :(
Looks like Obama has officially killed off the Appalachian/Southern Democrats. And a bit too soon, frankly. We should've run Hillary in 2008 and Obama in 2016 instead. The ages of both would've been better suited for this too. :(
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 05, 2014, 01:36:40 AM
Updated/corrected:
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5422_05_11_14_1_34_27.png)
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5422_05_11_14_1_34_27.png)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 05, 2014, 01:37:22 AM
TX-23 flipped
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: NewYorkExpress on November 05, 2014, 01:38:09 AM
Grimes is losing by 16 points. Obama lost by 17 points in 2008.
Looks like Obama has officially killed off the Appalachian/Southern Democrats. And a bit too soon, frankly. We should've run Hillary in 2008 and Obama in 2016 instead. The ages of both would've been better suited for this too. :(
Looks like Obama has officially killed off the Appalachian/Southern Democrats. And a bit too soon, frankly. We should've run Hillary in 2008 and Obama in 2016 instead. The ages of both would've been better suited for this too. :(
Most of these people aren't going to vote for a woman either... We should've run Edwards, mistress and all.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 05, 2014, 01:42:03 AM
Grimes is losing by 16 points. Obama lost by 17 points in 2008.
Looks like Obama has officially killed off the Appalachian/Southern Democrats. And a bit too soon, frankly. We should've run Hillary in 2008 and Obama in 2016 instead. The ages of both would've been better suited for this too. :(
Looks like Obama has officially killed off the Appalachian/Southern Democrats. And a bit too soon, frankly. We should've run Hillary in 2008 and Obama in 2016 instead. The ages of both would've been better suited for this too. :(
Most of these people aren't going to vote for a woman either... We should've run Edwards, mistress and all.
Especially West Virginia.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 01:44:16 AM
And UT-4 has been called for Love. With 99% in (though who knows if that number's real or not), she leads 50-47 (that probably is). An underperformance but, a win is a win. Hopefully as an incumbent she can get entrenched. That makes the net R+12. Counting everything in a non-Pacific state as an uncalled Eastern, there are still 9 left, most of which look pretty good for Democrats; a gain in NE-2 would be especially sweet. Discounting same-party battles, there are 11 races that are within 10 points right now in CA; 10 of those have incumbent Ds and only 1, CA-31, is in R territory. (You can maybe take Ruiz and Lieu out of that, since they're both just below 55%; that's still so many opportunities for Rs in CA). Right now, Aguilar, DeMaio, and Tacherra lead, and it's been that way for a while: would be a net of R+1 in CA. Lots of Democrats barely holding on to leads; CA could break into something worse than NY or something relatively benign for Democrats.
EDIT: A break for Democrats -- Rick Nolan is reelected in MN-8, which was actually expected to be a Republican pickup.
EDIT: A break for Democrats -- Rick Nolan is reelected in MN-8, which was actually expected to be a Republican pickup.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 05, 2014, 01:44:58 AM
Alaska update
Num. Report Precinct 441 - Num. Reporting 160 36.28%
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 160 36.3%
Times Counted 107415/509011 21.1%
Total Votes 106397
Begich, Mark DEM 47399 44.55%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 3807 3.58%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 2211 2.08%
Sullivan, Dan REP 52507 49.35%
Write-in Votes 473 0.44%
Num. Report Precinct 441 - Num. Reporting 160 36.28%
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 160 36.3%
Times Counted 107415/509011 21.1%
Total Votes 106397
Begich, Mark DEM 47399 44.55%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 3807 3.58%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 2211 2.08%
Sullivan, Dan REP 52507 49.35%
Write-in Votes 473 0.44%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: publicunofficial on November 05, 2014, 01:45:24 AM
Nolan declared winner over Mills in MN-08.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on November 05, 2014, 01:45:52 AM
Vosem, I just wanted to compliment you on how classy you're being about all this so far. I'm really upset right now, so I really appreciate what graciousness forum Republicans extend.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 05, 2014, 01:46:20 AM
Begich not improving. Suggests that current results aren't missing the bush vote. If so Begich has lost.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 05, 2014, 01:50:35 AM
Begich not improving. Suggests that current results aren't missing the bush vote. If so Begich has lost.
Wouldn't the rural vote come in much later though? Since it would take a while to be received?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 05, 2014, 01:52:22 AM
Begich not improving. Suggests that current results aren't missing the bush vote. If so Begich has lost.
Wouldn't the rural vote come in much later though? Since it would take a while to be received?
He's still got a chance, heck probably a better chance than Landreiu, but not looking good.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 01:54:59 AM
Vosem, I just wanted to compliment you on how classy you're being about all this so far. I'm really upset right now, so I really appreciate what graciousness forum Republicans extend.
Thank you. I'm just trying to make sense of it all.
Begich not improving. Suggests that current results aren't missing the bush vote. If so Begich has lost.
Wouldn't the rural vote come in much later though? Since it would take a while to be received?
I do think late Alaskan results trend more rural and Democratic, actually, considering Ted Stevens narrowly led on Election Night and Begich only overtook him later. But I don't think they're so Democratic to overcome a six-point lead; the race swung by about 2 percent then. Sullivan's margin could -- actually should -- narrow, but I don't see him losing. If Begich can keep this to 4 points, it'll actually be very impressive considering the drubbings other red-state Democrats have received.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Storebought on November 05, 2014, 01:57:03 AM
Does anybody have a link on the partisan makeup of the House electorate?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 05, 2014, 02:01:07 AM
Actually Begich is ticking up now. Still two-thirds so it could happen. If he pulls it out Sullivan becomes the next Ken Buck.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 05, 2014, 02:02:45 AM
Alaska update - 44.2% in
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 195 44.2%
Times Counted 130571/509011 25.7%
Total Votes 129351
Begich, Mark DEM 57288 44.29%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 4660 3.60%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 2619 2.02%
Sullivan, Dan REP 64189 49.62%
Write-in Votes 595 0.46%
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 195 44.2%
Times Counted 130571/509011 25.7%
Total Votes 129351
Begich, Mark DEM 57288 44.29%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 4660 3.60%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 2619 2.02%
Sullivan, Dan REP 64189 49.62%
Write-in Votes 595 0.46%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 05, 2014, 02:02:59 AM
It seems like the west cost is a natural anti-wave barrier for democrats. It wasn't like that in 1994.
Edit: Is Begich losing for sure? Can't tell.
Edit: Back to R+6 on CNN. Not getting my hopes up.
Edit: Is Begich losing for sure? Can't tell.
Edit: Back to R+6 on CNN. Not getting my hopes up.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 05, 2014, 02:08:02 AM
It seems like the west cost is a natural anti-wave barrier for democrats. It wasn't like that in 1994.
Edit: Is Begich losing for sure? Can't tell.
Edit: Back to R+6 on CNN. Not getting my hopes up.
Edit: Is Begich losing for sure? Can't tell.
Edit: Back to R+6 on CNN. Not getting my hopes up.
Bera and Costa are trailing here in California, but they were always going to have tight races, like they have before. I think the Democrats lose their 2/3rds majority in the CA State Senate, but that's probably more because they only had it in the first place because of luck of which seats were up in 2012, thanks to some double representation from the 2010 seats after redistricting.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 02:08:26 AM
Slowly but surely, the last stragglers of the East are counting. With 75% in NE-2, Ashford continues to lead by his selfsame 49-46 margin. If what's left is very R, Terry can still win, but it's looking progressively worse and worse for him. In MD-6, with 97% counted, and the remainder seemingly from heavily-D Montgomery County, Delaney has taken his first lead of the night, 50-49, or about 1700 votes. Stick a fork in Bongino -- he's done. D hold. Checkmark soon. With just 57% reporting in ME-2 (why? how? such a low number so far east) Poliquin continues to lead 47-43. Considering LePage has a similar margin with 64% reporting and it's been called, I suspect Poliquin, too, will soon receive a checkmark. NY's uncalled races are, again, finished counting and are just very very close, with Democratic incumbents Sean Maloney and Louise Slaughter leading by hundreds of votes.
Further east, with ~70% reporting in all three races, Hardy leads Horsford 49-46, Kirkpatrick leads Tobin 52-48 (both probably soon to receive checkmarks); Barber leads McSally by 247 votes. That one could well go to overtime unless some of the outstanding area is heavily R or D.
In CA, Doug Ose has taken the lead from Ami Bera; Aguilar, DeMaio, and Tacherra continue to lead. All projected pickups have no more than 51.3% of the vote. Democrats lead with less than 52%: John Garamendi, Jerry McNerney, Julia Brownley. Still no more than absentees in CA-33, where Lieu leads Carr just 53-47. Republicans are at net+2 in CA right now; the final result will probably be a net of 1-3, and won't be known for some time.
Further east, with ~70% reporting in all three races, Hardy leads Horsford 49-46, Kirkpatrick leads Tobin 52-48 (both probably soon to receive checkmarks); Barber leads McSally by 247 votes. That one could well go to overtime unless some of the outstanding area is heavily R or D.
In CA, Doug Ose has taken the lead from Ami Bera; Aguilar, DeMaio, and Tacherra continue to lead. All projected pickups have no more than 51.3% of the vote. Democrats lead with less than 52%: John Garamendi, Jerry McNerney, Julia Brownley. Still no more than absentees in CA-33, where Lieu leads Carr just 53-47. Republicans are at net+2 in CA right now; the final result will probably be a net of 1-3, and won't be known for some time.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Sbane on November 05, 2014, 02:08:34 AM
Vosem, I doubt California will be worse than R+2 and even that is being charitable to the Republicans. Costa will not lose because Fresno doesn't count its vote till late. Brownley, Bera and Peters are in a bit of trouble though. Aguilar should pull it out as well.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 02:12:27 AM
Rounds won a majority in SD, so at least we don't have to chalk that up in a "missed opportunities" category. Probably would've gone the same way as Kansas.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 02:14:29 AM
Vosem, I doubt California will be worse than R+2 and even that is being charitable to the Republicans. Costa will not lose because Fresno doesn't count its vote till late. Brownley, Bera and Peters are in a bit of trouble though. Aguilar should pull it out as well.
Tacherra is out to a lead of more than 1000 votes now. I don't know how much margin Fresno will give Costa, but he'll need every vote. CA is R+2 right now (Aguilar, but Ose/Tacherra/DeMaio), with Democrats having more narrow leads and the Central Valley, from Garamendi to Valadao and everything between them, getting more Republican as counting progresses. In an ideal scenario for Democrats D+1 isn't out of the question, but I think R+2, or worse, is quite conceivable.
In intra-party races, Newhouse, Honda, and Knight have all maintained consistent leads in the high single digits; I'd imagine they all win. Knight was considered a distinct underdog to Strickland, and Khanna was considered to have momentum against Honda. Newhouse was expected to win.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 05, 2014, 02:15:20 AM
So uh, Pryor is currently losing 39-57. Looks like he got Blanched after all
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 02:17:05 AM
So uh, Pryor is currently losing 39-57. Looks like he got Blanched after all
It's pretty amazing how Pryor, Landrieu, Grimes, Tennant, Nunn are all posting Obama-esque numbers in these states. Very, very grim. To Appalachia, (D) = Obama now.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 05, 2014, 02:17:22 AM
Vosem, I just wanted to compliment you on how classy you're being about all this so far. I'm really upset right now, so I really appreciate what graciousness forum Republicans extend.
Thank you. I'm just trying to make sense of it all.
Begich not improving. Suggests that current results aren't missing the bush vote. If so Begich has lost.
Wouldn't the rural vote come in much later though? Since it would take a while to be received?
I do think late Alaskan results trend more rural and Democratic, actually, considering Ted Stevens narrowly led on Election Night and Begich only overtook him later. But I don't think they're so Democratic to overcome a six-point lead; the race swung by about 2 percent then. Sullivan's margin could -- actually should -- narrow, but I don't see him losing. If Begich can keep this to 4 points, it'll actually be very impressive considering the drubbings other red-state Democrats have received.
My expectation would be that for the Native Alaskan vote, the relative advantage is more now for Begich than when he went against Stevens, given Stevens work in establishing and advocating for the Native Corporations, meanwhile having Begich's more recent efforts at the Native vote and Sullivan's perceived hostility to their issues.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 05, 2014, 02:19:13 AM
So uh, Pryor is currently losing 39-57. Looks like he got Blanched after all
It's pretty amazing how Pryor, Landrieu, Grimes, Tennant, Nunn are all posting Obama-esque numbers in these states. Very, very grim. To Appalachia, (D) = Obama now.
The Senate map is basically the presidential map from 2012. It's terrifying. We can't win the senate if we can only win blue states.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Sbane on November 05, 2014, 02:20:20 AM
Vosem, I doubt California will be worse than R+2 and even that is being charitable to the Republicans. Costa will not lose because Fresno doesn't count its vote till late. Brownley, Bera and Peters are in a bit of trouble though. Aguilar should pull it out as well.
Tacherra is out to a lead of more than 1000 votes now. I don't know how much margin Fresno will give Costa, but he'll need every vote. CA is R+2 right now (Aguilar, but Ose/Tacherra/DeMaio), with Democrats having more narrow leads and the Central Valley, from Garamendi to Valadao and everything between them, getting more Republican as counting progresses. In an ideal scenario for Democrats D+1 isn't out of the question, but I think R+2, or worse, is quite conceivable.
In intra-party races, Newhouse, Honda, and Knight have all maintained consistent leads in the high single digits; I'd imagine they all win. Knight was considered a distinct underdog to Strickland, and Khanna was considered to have momentum against Honda. Newhouse was expected to win.
In 2010, Costa sat behind by something like 2-3 points for days until Fresno finally got its sh**t together. Although this year with very low turnout, especially among democrat leaning Hispanics and Asians, that might not be enough. We shall see.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2014, 02:20:21 AM
Vosem, I just wanted to compliment you on how classy you're being about all this so far. I'm really upset right now, so I really appreciate what graciousness forum Republicans extend.
Thank you. I'm just trying to make sense of it all.
Begich not improving. Suggests that current results aren't missing the bush vote. If so Begich has lost.
Wouldn't the rural vote come in much later though? Since it would take a while to be received?
I do think late Alaskan results trend more rural and Democratic, actually, considering Ted Stevens narrowly led on Election Night and Begich only overtook him later. But I don't think they're so Democratic to overcome a six-point lead; the race swung by about 2 percent then. Sullivan's margin could -- actually should -- narrow, but I don't see him losing. If Begich can keep this to 4 points, it'll actually be very impressive considering the drubbings other red-state Democrats have received.
My expectation would be that for the Native Alaskan vote, the relative advantage is more now for Begich than when he went against Stevens, given Stevens work in establishing and advocating for the Native Corporations, meanwhile having Begich's more recent efforts at the Native vote and Sullivan's perceived hostility to their issues.
Based on percentage of precincts reporting in the Alaska House races:
Fairbanks is most in (marginal R), followed by the Kenai Peninsula (heavy R) and the Southeast (marginal D). All are above 70% in, while 44% of the total precincts are reporting. The heavy R Mat-Su is slightly more in than average, while bellwether Anchorage is slightly less in than average. The heavy-D Bush significantly trails and is only 22% in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 05, 2014, 02:23:44 AM
Alaska update - 55.1% in.
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 243 55.1%
Times Counted 158536/509011 31.1%
Total Votes 157062
Begich, Mark DEM 69537 44.27%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 5633 3.59%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 3070 1.95%
Sullivan, Dan REP 78126 49.74%
Write-in Votes 696 0.44%
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 243 55.1%
Times Counted 158536/509011 31.1%
Total Votes 157062
Begich, Mark DEM 69537 44.27%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 5633 3.59%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 3070 1.95%
Sullivan, Dan REP 78126 49.74%
Write-in Votes 696 0.44%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 02:23:46 AM
Indeed we shall, Sbane -- with 88% in, Tacherra's lead is down to exactly 777 votes. If the remainder is heavily Democratic, Costa will beat Tacherra, if unimpressively. In uncalled Eastern news, the Bangor Daily News has called ME-2 for Poliquin. Delaney and Poliquin should both be receiving checkmarks soon. (Maloney might deserve a checkmark as well; even though it's been at 100% for a while, his margin has gotten progressively larger. NY-25 hasn't shifted since it's been at 100% :P).
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 05, 2014, 02:25:11 AM
Indeed we shall, Sbane -- with 88% in, Tacherra's lead is down to exactly 777 votes. If the remainder is heavily Democratic, Costa will beat Tacherra, if unimpressively. In uncalled Eastern news, the Bangor Daily News has called ME-2 for Poliquin. Delaney and Poliquin should both be receiving checkmarks soon. (Maloney might deserve a checkmark as well; even though it's been at 100% for a while, his margin has gotten progressively larger. NY-25 hasn't shifted since it's been at 100% :P).
They still have to count the absentees in New York, IIRC. Still likely a Maloney win either way.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: BaconBacon96 on November 05, 2014, 02:26:07 AM
All of a sudden I've become a lot less confident about the ability of the Democrat candidate to win places like Georgia, Arkansas and North Carolina come 2016.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2014, 02:27:24 AM
Alaska update - 55.1% in.
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 243 55.1%
Times Counted 158536/509011 31.1%
Total Votes 157062
Begich, Mark DEM 69537 44.27%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 5633 3.59%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 3070 1.95%
Sullivan, Dan REP 78126 49.74%
Write-in Votes 696 0.44%
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 243 55.1%
Times Counted 158536/509011 31.1%
Total Votes 157062
Begich, Mark DEM 69537 44.27%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 5633 3.59%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 3070 1.95%
Sullivan, Dan REP 78126 49.74%
Write-in Votes 696 0.44%
More of Anchorage, the Bush and the Mat-Su. Mat-Su is 65% in - 10 points higher than the statewide average of 55%. Anchorage is -3. Bush Alaska is -25.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 02:28:09 AM
Indeed we shall, Sbane -- with 88% in, Tacherra's lead is down to exactly 777 votes. If the remainder is heavily Democratic, Costa will beat Tacherra, if unimpressively. In uncalled Eastern news, the Bangor Daily News has called ME-2 for Poliquin. Delaney and Poliquin should both be receiving checkmarks soon. (Maloney might deserve a checkmark as well; even though it's been at 100% for a while, his margin has gotten progressively larger. NY-25 hasn't shifted since it's been at 100% :P).
They still have to count the absentees in New York, IIRC. Still likely a Maloney win either way.
But those usually lean D, right? I seem to recall in 2012 it only became clear that Democrats "took" the NY Senate once absentee votes were counted. If those break R Maloney probably has a solid enough win to stick in the House, but Slaughter could be slaughtered.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on November 05, 2014, 02:30:14 AM
Nolan declared winner over Mills in MN-08.
Thank God for my island of sanity state then. Time for bed.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 02:32:30 AM
Well, it's 2:30 and I'm heading to bed. A bunch of safe Democratic seats were just called in California, but there's still 8 Democratic seats at risk (of which Republicans lead in 3/8), and Aguilar's 51-49 lead over Chabot is obviously not good enough for a call. Setting my alarm for 7; I'll check back in then. G'night, y'alls. It was a fantastic Election Night, covered very professionally by news-media, discussed very politely and expertly by the Atlas, and with, dare I say it, fantastic results. I hope to see many more like it.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 05, 2014, 02:33:07 AM
Vosem, I doubt California will be worse than R+2 and even that is being charitable to the Republicans. Costa will not lose because Fresno doesn't count its vote till late. Brownley, Bera and Peters are in a bit of trouble though. Aguilar should pull it out as well.
None of the close races in California will be called any time soon. Here are the close ones, and there could still be others not on this list that could flip.
http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/close-contests/
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPQR on November 05, 2014, 02:39:36 AM
Information here and there:
Pryor below 40%
Weiland below 30%
Kitzbaher below 50% (for now,at least)
Van Hollen eventually above 60%
Sandoval above 70% (costing Democrats a House seat,possibly)
Pryor below 40%
Weiland below 30%
Kitzbaher below 50% (for now,at least)
Van Hollen eventually above 60%
Sandoval above 70% (costing Democrats a House seat,possibly)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 05, 2014, 02:43:05 AM
Alaska Update almost 2/3 in.
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 289 65.5%
Times Counted 178060/509011 35.0%
Total Votes 176419
Begich, Mark DEM 78218 44.34%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 6300 3.57%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 3393 1.92%
Sullivan, Dan REP 87711 49.72%
Write-in Votes 797 0.45%
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 289 65.5%
Times Counted 178060/509011 35.0%
Total Votes 176419
Begich, Mark DEM 78218 44.34%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 6300 3.57%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 3393 1.92%
Sullivan, Dan REP 87711 49.72%
Write-in Votes 797 0.45%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on November 05, 2014, 02:45:43 AM
Alaska Update almost 2/3 in.
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 289 65.5%
Times Counted 178060/509011 35.0%
Total Votes 176419
Begich, Mark DEM 78218 44.34%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 6300 3.57%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 3393 1.92%
Sullivan, Dan REP 87711 49.72%
Write-in Votes 797 0.45%
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 289 65.5%
Times Counted 178060/509011 35.0%
Total Votes 176419
Begich, Mark DEM 78218 44.34%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 6300 3.57%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 3393 1.92%
Sullivan, Dan REP 87711 49.72%
Write-in Votes 797 0.45%
This is gonna come down to the wire, obviously.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 02:45:48 AM
Looks like polls in Alaska (besides Ivan Moore and Hellenthal of course) were pretty good this time. No strong pro-D or pro-incumbent bias.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 05, 2014, 02:46:03 AM
What in the world is going on in CA-16? Its D+8!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2014, 02:46:48 AM
Alaska Update almost 2/3 in.
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 289 65.5%
Times Counted 178060/509011 35.0%
Total Votes 176419
Begich, Mark DEM 78218 44.34%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 6300 3.57%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 3393 1.92%
Sullivan, Dan REP 87711 49.72%
Write-in Votes 797 0.45%
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 289 65.5%
Times Counted 178060/509011 35.0%
Total Votes 176419
Begich, Mark DEM 78218 44.34%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 6300 3.57%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 3393 1.92%
Sullivan, Dan REP 87711 49.72%
Write-in Votes 797 0.45%
Kenai all in. SE 95% in. Fairbanks 94% in. Mat-Su 78% in. Kodiak-based HD 71% in. State 65.5% in. Anchorage 64% in. Bush 43% in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Ljube on November 05, 2014, 02:49:20 AM
Looks like polls in Alaska (besides Ivan Moore and Hellenthal of course) were pretty good this time. No strong pro-D or pro-incumbent bias.
Both Ivan Moore and particularly Hellenthal had a very small, I dare say, skewed sample.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 05, 2014, 02:49:46 AM
AK - At Large called for Young by RCP. Bringing the Republicans to 239 (plus the two shoe in seats in LA for 241).
Current Race is Young +10
US REPRESENTATIVE
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 289 65.5%
Times Counted 178060/509011 35.0%
Total Votes 174806
Dunbar, Forrest DEM 71316 40.80%
McDermott, Jim C. LIB 13219 7.56%
Young, Don REP 89517 51.21%
Write-in Votes 754 0.43%
Current Race is Young +10
US REPRESENTATIVE
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 289 65.5%
Times Counted 178060/509011 35.0%
Total Votes 174806
Dunbar, Forrest DEM 71316 40.80%
McDermott, Jim C. LIB 13219 7.56%
Young, Don REP 89517 51.21%
Write-in Votes 754 0.43%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2014, 02:51:24 AM
AOSHQDD calls Alaska for Sullivan.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on November 05, 2014, 02:51:49 AM
It certainly wasn't a good night for the Nunn family, but down in Florida, another former Democratic Senator, that is Bob Graham, has reasons to celebrate with his daughter capturing the 2nd congressional district.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 05, 2014, 02:55:43 AM
Alaska update almost 3/4 of the vote in. Sullivan +6.
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 325 73.7%
Times Counted 195234/509011 38.4%
Total Votes 193436
Begich, Mark DEM 85259 44.08%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 6964 3.60%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 3774 1.95%
Sullivan, Dan REP 96563 49.92%
Write-in Votes 876 0.45%
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 325 73.7%
Times Counted 195234/509011 38.4%
Total Votes 193436
Begich, Mark DEM 85259 44.08%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 6964 3.60%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 3774 1.95%
Sullivan, Dan REP 96563 49.92%
Write-in Votes 876 0.45%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 05, 2014, 02:57:20 AM
AOSHQDD calls Alaska for Sullivan.
There's about 3/4 of the vote in, Sullivan roughly +6. The math is getting very difficult for the Democrat. I am sure the other media outlets will follow suit shortly.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2014, 02:59:41 AM
Alaska update almost 3/4 of the vote in. Sullivan +6.
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 325 73.7%
Times Counted 195234/509011 38.4%
Total Votes 193436
Begich, Mark DEM 85259 44.08%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 6964 3.60%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 3774 1.95%
Sullivan, Dan REP 96563 49.92%
Write-in Votes 876 0.45%
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 325 73.7%
Times Counted 195234/509011 38.4%
Total Votes 193436
Begich, Mark DEM 85259 44.08%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 6964 3.60%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 3774 1.95%
Sullivan, Dan REP 96563 49.92%
Write-in Votes 876 0.45%
Mainly heavily-R Mat-Su in that dump. Kenai and Fairbanks all in. SE at 95%. Mat-Su at 90%. Anchorage at 75%. Statewide at 73.7%. Kodiak-based HD at 71%. Bush at 52%,
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: publicunofficial on November 05, 2014, 02:59:48 AM
What in the world is going on in CA-16? Its D+8!
Turns out a district sandwiched between CA-10 and CA-21 gives Democrats the same problem that they suffer there. Latino turnout is abysmal.
Also Jim Costa, like Dan Maffei, is an unneeded Blue Dog who clung to the middle so closely that he has pleased no one. He's also a massive energy company shill, so good riddance if he loses.
At this point, the Democrats have lost so much that losing Costa is all positive to me.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on November 05, 2014, 02:59:58 AM
More votes come in and the margin remains roughly the same. Looking pretty grim for Begich.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2014, 03:01:03 AM
AOSHQDD calls Alaska for Sullivan.
There's about 3/4 of the vote in, Sullivan roughly +6. The math is getting very difficult for the Democrat. I am sure the other media outlets will follow suit shortly.
The problems for making any call is that there is no precinct-level data yet, the Bush is still out, and the early vote, which might not yet be fully counted, usually trends Democratic.
But the fat lady is certainly warming up.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Sol on November 05, 2014, 03:01:45 AM
More votes come in and the margin remains roughly the same. Looking pretty grim for Begich.
The Evil Ones gain another member of their America Asssassination Squad.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Free Bird on November 05, 2014, 03:02:33 AM
OC, where aaarrreeee you?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 05, 2014, 03:02:52 AM
What in the world is going on in CA-16? Its D+8!
Turns out a district sandwiched between CA-10 and CA-21 gives Democrats the same problem that they suffer there. Latino turnout is abysmal.
Also Jim Costa, like Dan Maffei, is an unneeded Blue Dog who clung to the middle so closely that he has pleased no one. He's also a massive energy company shill, so good riddance if he loses.
At this point, the Democrats have lost so much that losing Costa is all positive to me.
California turnout among votes counted on election day is always abysmal.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 05, 2014, 03:03:00 AM
Few races were close in the end. NH, VA, NC, maybe AK. Beyond that it's 5+ point wins. Similar to 2012 with opposite parties actually. Many house seats were tight though, since Democrats over performed in swing districts relative to blue districts, while doing terrible in both, making both types of seat close.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on November 05, 2014, 03:04:45 AM
More votes come in and the margin remains roughly the same. Looking pretty grim for Begich.
The Evil Ones gain another member of their America Asssassination Squad.
Golly, you guys should be in dramatic theater!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on November 05, 2014, 03:15:25 AM
More votes come in and the margin remains roughly the same. Looking pretty grim for Begich.
The Evil Ones gain another member of their America Asssassination Squad.
I proposed that name at the recent Evil Ones meeting. I'm glad to see it catching on. ;)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 03:15:33 AM
Another lesson from this election: Don't read too much into early voting. Or exit polls.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 05, 2014, 03:17:23 AM
Alaska Senate Update 76% in
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 344 78.0%
Times Counted 200587/509011 39.4%
Total Votes 198743
Begich, Mark DEM 87932 44.24%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 7139 3.59%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 3864 1.94%
Sullivan, Dan REP 98916 49.77%
Write-in Votes 892 0.45%
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 344 78.0%
Times Counted 200587/509011 39.4%
Total Votes 198743
Begich, Mark DEM 87932 44.24%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 7139 3.59%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 3864 1.94%
Sullivan, Dan REP 98916 49.77%
Write-in Votes 892 0.45%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2014, 03:22:12 AM
Alaska Senate Update 76% in
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 344 78.0%
Times Counted 200587/509011 39.4%
Total Votes 198743
Begich, Mark DEM 87932 44.24%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 7139 3.59%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 3864 1.94%
Sullivan, Dan REP 98916 49.77%
Write-in Votes 892 0.45%
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 344 78.0%
Times Counted 200587/509011 39.4%
Total Votes 198743
Begich, Mark DEM 87932 44.24%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 7139 3.59%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 3864 1.94%
Sullivan, Dan REP 98916 49.77%
Write-in Votes 892 0.45%
Anchorage and Bush votes. Anchorage up to 82%. Bush up to 58%. Mat-Su remains at 90%. One of the Kodiak-based HD precincts reported, too.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: publicunofficial on November 05, 2014, 03:25:15 AM
Few races were close in the end. NH, VA, NC, maybe AK. Beyond that it's 5+ point wins. Similar to 2012 with opposite parties actually. Many house seats were tight though, since Democrats over performed in swing districts relative to blue districts, while doing terrible in both, making both types of seat close.
I think one silver lining is that unlike with most waves, most of the elections Democrats ended up loosing were decently close, especially in the House.
UT-04, IA-01, NH-01, TX-23, IL-10, FL-26 and likely CA-16, CA-07, CA-52, NV-04, and AZ-02 all had Democratic candidates loosing with 48% or less. ME-02, NY-01, GA-12, WV-02, and CO-06 were also decently close contests. Unlike 2010, we have a good chance at winning back a lot of these seats in 2016. We might even get 2nd chances in seats like FL-13, CA-25, CA-10, CA-21, VA-10, and IA-03.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: publicunofficial on November 05, 2014, 03:27:16 AM
McSally is now ahead of Barber by less than 100 votes.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 03:33:52 AM
Looks like Delaney will pull it out. 50-49 with 100% in. Truly crazy it was so close. Ashford ahead 48-46 in NE-02 with 80% in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Free Bird on November 05, 2014, 03:34:09 AM
I just realized. Sarvis spoiled... again
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 05, 2014, 03:43:46 AM
AK Senate Update - 86% in
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 378 85.7%
Times Counted 214334/509011 42.1%
Total Votes 212342
Begich, Mark DEM 94171 44.35%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 7814 3.68%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 4178 1.97%
Sullivan, Dan REP 105218 49.55%
Write-in Votes 961 0.45%
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 378 85.7%
Times Counted 214334/509011 42.1%
Total Votes 212342
Begich, Mark DEM 94171 44.35%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 7814 3.68%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 4178 1.97%
Sullivan, Dan REP 105218 49.55%
Write-in Votes 961 0.45%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 03:43:58 AM
Wow, Horsford goes down in NV-04. 48-46 with 97% in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2014, 03:47:25 AM
AK Senate Update - 86% in
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 378 85.7%
Times Counted 214334/509011 42.1%
Total Votes 212342
Begich, Mark DEM 94171 44.35%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 7814 3.68%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 4178 1.97%
Sullivan, Dan REP 105218 49.55%
Write-in Votes 961 0.45%
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 378 85.7%
Times Counted 214334/509011 42.1%
Total Votes 212342
Begich, Mark DEM 94171 44.35%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 7814 3.68%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 4178 1.97%
Sullivan, Dan REP 105218 49.55%
Write-in Votes 961 0.45%
All of Kenai (heavy R), Fairbanks (marginal R) and Southeast Alaska (marginal D) are in. 98% of the heavy R Mat-Su is in. 93% of the Kodiak-based HD is in. 92% of bellwether Anchorage is in. 86% of the state. And only 67% of precincts in the D-leaning Bush. Those Bush precincts are probably relatively sparsely populated. So it probably tightens from here.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Matty on November 05, 2014, 03:47:40 AM
I think we can call it for Sullivan.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends on November 05, 2014, 03:48:27 AM
Having been away for most of the day, all I've got to say is congratulations to all the new Republican Senators, especially Cotton, Ernst and Gardner!
As for the House, well done to Brat and Love in particular.
As for the House, well done to Brat and Love in particular.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2014, 03:49:25 AM
I think we can call it for Sullivan.
One caveat is that, per Fox News, there are 20,000 or so early and absentee votes yet to be counted. Those usually trend more D than the election day vote. But it's still probably not enough for Begich. Walker, on the other hand...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPQR on November 05, 2014, 03:49:56 AM
In the meanwhile,Ige has won HI-Gov with 49.5% to ruin further most users' predictions
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 05, 2014, 03:51:18 AM
Wow, Horsford goes down in NV-04. 48-46 with 97% in.
Yeah and as of a few minutes ago when I looked, Republicans have a shot at possible gains in CA-7, CA-16, CA-26, CA-52, AZ-2 and ME-2, too.
Dems can pick up NE-2 and CA-31.
NY-25 has been overlooked but pending absentee ballots, long-time incumbent Louise Slaughter is a few hundred votes ahead of her Republican challenger. Unlikely to switch, but that race was assumed safe.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 05, 2014, 04:01:58 AM
Alaska - 94% of the vote in
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 415 94.1%
Times Counted 220312/509011 43.3%
Total Votes 218260
Begich, Mark DEM 97852 44.83%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 8041 3.68%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 4304 1.97%
Sullivan, Dan REP 107079 49.06%
Write-in Votes 984 0.45%
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 415 94.1%
Times Counted 220312/509011 43.3%
Total Votes 218260
Begich, Mark DEM 97852 44.83%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 8041 3.68%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 4304 1.97%
Sullivan, Dan REP 107079 49.06%
Write-in Votes 984 0.45%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2014, 04:05:08 AM
Alaska - 94% of the vote in
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 415 94.1%
Times Counted 220312/509011 43.3%
Total Votes 218260
Begich, Mark DEM 97852 44.83%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 8041 3.68%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 4304 1.97%
Sullivan, Dan REP 107079 49.06%
Write-in Votes 984 0.45%
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 415 94.1%
Times Counted 220312/509011 43.3%
Total Votes 218260
Begich, Mark DEM 97852 44.83%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 8041 3.68%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 4304 1.97%
Sullivan, Dan REP 107079 49.06%
Write-in Votes 984 0.45%
Bush up to 88% reporting. Anchorage up to 94%. Mat-Su is missing 1 precinct. All the rest is in.
There's no way Begich wins this.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 04:20:35 AM
100% in in HI-01, and Takai won 52-48. Knew this one would be very close.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 05, 2014, 04:34:23 AM
Alaska narrows... 97% of the vote in.
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 427 96.8%
Times Counted 226050/509011 44.4%
Total Votes 223953
Begich, Mark DEM 100565 44.90%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 8256 3.69%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 4415 1.97%
Sullivan, Dan REP 109716 48.99%
Write-in Votes 1001 0.45%
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 427 96.8%
Times Counted 226050/509011 44.4%
Total Votes 223953
Begich, Mark DEM 100565 44.90%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 8256 3.69%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 4415 1.97%
Sullivan, Dan REP 109716 48.99%
Write-in Votes 1001 0.45%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2014, 04:34:47 AM
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 427 96.8%
Times Counted 226050/509011 44.4%
Total Votes 223953
Begich, Mark DEM 100565 44.90%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 8256 3.69%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 4415 1.97%
Sullivan, Dan REP 109716 48.99%
Write-in Votes 1001 0.45%
All that's left of the election day vote is 14 precincts in the Bush. 5 in the Dillingham-Aleutian based HD-37. 5 in the Bethel-based HD-38. 2 in the Nome-based HD-39. And 2 in the Northern HD-40.
Plus, 20,000 or so uncounted absentee/early votes. All likely skew D, so the race could still tighten. But Sullivan should have this.
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 427 96.8%
Times Counted 226050/509011 44.4%
Total Votes 223953
Begich, Mark DEM 100565 44.90%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 8256 3.69%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 4415 1.97%
Sullivan, Dan REP 109716 48.99%
Write-in Votes 1001 0.45%
All that's left of the election day vote is 14 precincts in the Bush. 5 in the Dillingham-Aleutian based HD-37. 5 in the Bethel-based HD-38. 2 in the Nome-based HD-39. And 2 in the Northern HD-40.
Plus, 20,000 or so uncounted absentee/early votes. All likely skew D, so the race could still tighten. But Sullivan should have this.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Matty on November 05, 2014, 04:37:04 AM
That vote barely narrowed. Sullivan has got this
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 05, 2014, 04:49:58 AM
That vote barely narrowed. Sullivan has got this
Don't mind me. My eyes aren't the best at this hour.
Assuming there are about 20,000 ballots left (including the Bush), they'd have to break about 3:1 in favor of Begich in order for him to win. I doubt a 15K-5K sample is very likely.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPQR on November 05, 2014, 05:06:42 AM
It'll probably end up as a 3% loss for Begich.
What a shame.
What a shame.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Matty on November 05, 2014, 05:07:55 AM
so polling wasn't really off there.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Nichlemn on November 05, 2014, 05:14:32 AM
I just realised something - this is the first election since the rise of the Tea Party to not feature at least one Republican "giveaway" for being too conservative. Was there even a clear example in the House?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 05, 2014, 05:19:24 AM
I just realised something - this is the first election since the rise of the Tea Party to not feature at least one Republican "giveaway" for being too conservative. Was there even a clear example in the House?
Guys, being too conservative didn't stop Johnson from winning in WI in 2010, Toomey from winning in PA in 2010, or Ernst from winning in IA in 2014. It's about time the Democrats learned that they'd do better if they ran candidates who actually stood for something. The Democratic leadership currently gets a grade of F-.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2014, 05:22:21 AM
Via a Fox News reporter on Twitter:
Chad PergramVerified account @ChadPergram (https://twitter.com/ChadPergram/status/529931911788236800)
On Senate race, AK Division of Elections says it has "22,000 absentee/early votes to tally + a potential of 13,800 plus to be received..."
Chad PergramVerified account @ChadPergram (https://twitter.com/ChadPergram/status/529931911788236800)
On Senate race, AK Division of Elections says it has "22,000 absentee/early votes to tally + a potential of 13,800 plus to be received..."
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 05, 2014, 05:25:34 AM
The tea party has normalized radicalism. They win tonight even if their candidates didn't get in.
Looking at ~247 R house seats taking into account the favourable CA late counting. There wasn't even a Bachmann phenomenon. Crackpots didn't underform meaningfully. Sad, sad.
Looking at ~247 R house seats taking into account the favourable CA late counting. There wasn't even a Bachmann phenomenon. Crackpots didn't underform meaningfully. Sad, sad.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 05:27:11 AM
I just realised something - this is the first election since the rise of the Tea Party to not feature at least one Republican "giveaway" for being too conservative. Was there even a clear example in the House?
It should've been Ernst, but the media was too enamored with her "folksiness" to pin her with the extremist label. ::)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Matty on November 05, 2014, 05:28:13 AM
I think the most interesting thing from here is to see how democrats address a very obvious "midterm electorate" problem. They did well in early voting, but damn did some places, especially important precincts in NC, let them down today.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 05, 2014, 05:39:27 AM
Ann Kirkpatrick up 53.4%-46.8% in AZ-1. Wow. And Barber down 36 votes in AZ-2.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 05:41:51 AM
Ann Kirkpatrick up 53.4%-46.8% in AZ-1. Wow. And Barber down 36 votes in AZ-2.
Damn, Kirkpatrick is a beast. I'm pretty sure Barber trailed in the early AM of 2012 too, so assuming the counting is the same, he should pull it out. But who knows.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on November 05, 2014, 05:46:33 AM
100% in in HI-01, and Takai won 52-48. Knew this one would be very close.
Damn, I hoped fourth's time a charm :(
That said, Takai was better on foreign policy, so I'm not too upset.
AZ-2 is the toss-upest race of toss-up races, wow. and, yeah, Kirkpatrick is gonna win.
Elan Carr is doing a very solid job in CA-33, 42% in a D+12 district. That being said, it is 2014, so he probably can't replicate or improve the performance.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 05, 2014, 05:48:08 AM
It seems like Democrats are still winning most of the closest house and governor races. Strange.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Senator Cris on November 05, 2014, 05:48:24 AM
NC Exit Poll: Hagan up 49-46
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 05:48:51 AM
One bright spot: Ashford has extended his lead over Lee Terry, now leading 49-46 with 85% in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2014, 05:49:51 AM
All in but the absentee/early vote in Alaska:
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 441 100.0%
Times Counted 228242/509011 44.8%
Total Votes 226120
Begich, Mark DEM 102054 45.13%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 8358 3.70%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 4491 1.99%
Sullivan, Dan REP 110203 48.74%
Write-in Votes 1014 0.45%
Sullivan +3.61
UNITED STATES SENATOR
Total
Number of Precincts 441
Precincts Reporting 441 100.0%
Times Counted 228242/509011 44.8%
Total Votes 226120
Begich, Mark DEM 102054 45.13%
Fish, Mark S. LIB 8358 3.70%
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 4491 1.99%
Sullivan, Dan REP 110203 48.74%
Write-in Votes 1014 0.45%
Sullivan +3.61
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on November 05, 2014, 05:50:58 AM
Also, Costa lost in a D+7 district. Fail.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 05, 2014, 06:05:57 AM
CNN just reported unofficial numbers with 100% of precincts reporting: Sullivan wins by nearly 3%. :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 05, 2014, 06:06:39 AM
Also, Costa lost in a D+7 district. Fail.
Deja vu of 2010, where people assumed he lost, but he didn't.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on November 05, 2014, 06:08:16 AM
And Don Young, eternal congressman, will never lose. Even with that whole suicide controversy going on he wins 52-41, and by two years from now voters will forget.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Holmes on November 05, 2014, 06:18:10 AM
And Don Young, eternal congressman, will never lose. Even with that whole suicide controversy going on he wins 52-41, and by two years from now voters will forget.
Eh, Republicans could have run Child Rapist (R) anywhere in the country tonight and still won.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2014, 06:41:36 AM
The current Alaska margin is 48.74%-45.13% Sullivan. Sullivan won the election day vote by a slightly better 49.06%-44.41%. He won the absentees in so far by even more - 51.73%-44.78%. Note, however, that this doesn't include any absentees from the Bush, Kenai or most of the Southeast. He lost the early vote so far 43.86%-52.59%.
Given these percentages, even with a potential 35,000 votes outstanding, I doubt there's enough left for Beigich to win this.
Given these percentages, even with a potential 35,000 votes outstanding, I doubt there's enough left for Beigich to win this.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 05, 2014, 07:04:00 AM
I want to apologize to the Forum: I said McConnell would win by 6-8%. He won by 15%.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 07:12:26 AM
Well, I just woke up. There've been no calls, but Ashford, Delaney, and Poliquin have won. There was a call for Hardy, which bumped Republicans up to R+13. There was no call for Kirkpatrick. With 75% in AZ-2, McSally leads by 36 votes; that one could still go either way. With most CA races at 100%, it's still a net R+2 with Ose/Tacherra/DeMaio picking up seats as does Aguilar. If absentee ballots break heavily D, Tacherra and DeMaio both won with under 1,000-vote margins; Ose looks safer at 51.6-48.4. If they break R, Brownley's margin right now is 530 votes.
When the Eastern races are called, there'll be no shift. If the leaders in AZ/CA stay the same, the final pickup would be R+16, but I think Ds can expect one or two races to shift back to them. Dan Newhouse, Mike Honda, and Steve Knight won the intraparty battles.
When the Eastern races are called, there'll be no shift. If the leaders in AZ/CA stay the same, the final pickup would be R+16, but I think Ds can expect one or two races to shift back to them. Dan Newhouse, Mike Honda, and Steve Knight won the intraparty battles.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Sbane on November 05, 2014, 07:23:25 AM
Also, Costa lost in a D+7 district. Fail.
The fat lady hasn't sung yet, and likely won't. Yay Fresno!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on November 05, 2014, 07:24:41 AM
Also, Costa lost in a D+7 district. Fail.
The fat lady hasn't sung yet, and likely won't. Yay Fresno!
Is the stuff that's still out in Costa's favor? I didn't know :P
Nah wait sbane, 100% of precincts are in, and Costa is down 49-51.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Beagle on November 05, 2014, 07:26:35 AM
Dan Newhouse, Mike Honda, and Steve Knight won the intraparty battles.
I'm seeing Newhouse ahead by 3000 votes with more than half the district still out, is there an update that makes you certain that he'll win?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Sbane on November 05, 2014, 07:31:29 AM
Also, Costa lost in a D+7 district. Fail.
The fat lady hasn't sung yet, and likely won't. Yay Fresno!
Is the stuff that's still out in Costa's favor? I didn't know :P
Nah wait sbane, 100% of precincts are in, and Costa is down 49-51.
Oh, trust me there is a lot. Especially in poor, hispanic heavy inner city Fresno. I think Costa was in an even worse shape in 2010. I wouldn't be surprised if he won by more than 2-3 points. From what I can see the state hasn't released an unprocessed ballot report yet. Keep an eye on that.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 05, 2014, 07:59:10 AM
Yeah there's always tons of D-leaning vote in California. Bera, Costa, and Peters probably pull it out.
Little consolation, though. Freaking bloodbath.
Little consolation, though. Freaking bloodbath.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 05, 2014, 08:01:49 AM
What House seats are still out?
I think in PA, you can drive from City Avenue in Philadelphia to the Allegheny County line, and never enter a Democratic US House District. :)
I think in PA, you can drive from City Avenue in Philadelphia to the Allegheny County line, and never enter a Democratic US House District. :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: sg0508 on November 05, 2014, 08:33:56 AM
The GOP has to be a bit disappointed with HI-1. This was their real shot to find another star in HI for the future and they lost it.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on November 05, 2014, 08:36:41 AM
The GOP has to be a bit disappointed with HI-1. This was their real shot to find another star in HI for the future and they lost it.
I'm sure they're fine coming within 4 of a D+18 district.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: °Leprechaun on November 05, 2014, 09:01:18 AM
I was way off on my prediction of a 50-50 Senate, of course. I only predicted Democratic victories in states that were very close, however. What, if anything, surprised you about yesterday? I think, in spite of my prediction, that things went the way the polls predicted for the most part.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 05, 2014, 09:08:15 AM
Well, looking at the NYT House map (http://elections.nytimes.com/2014/results/house?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=span-abc-region®ion=span-abc-region&WT.nav=span-abc-region) (great utility that, but notice if you look at the NYT front page today, just how bitchy that "pinko rag" is about the Pub sweep, aka "anger sweeps the land, as the Pubs cash in on hate" as it were?), the Pubs have picked up 13 seats, and will win WA-04, CA-07, ME-02 and the two LA runoff seats, netting an 18 seat gain in the House. The Dems pick up ground as the votes are counted over the ensuing weeks in CA, so the Dems are going to hold CA-52 most probably :(, along with CA-16 and CA-26. And Barber will hold on in AZ-02, which is kind of a surprise to me, because McSally was an excellent candidate. I suspect Kirkpatrick did so well in AZ-01 due to a heavy Native American vote, which she cultivated assiduously. Good for her!
All a most surprising outcome - a near Pub wave, which as per usual peters out as one gets near the left coast. Well, perhaps not totally surprising to some (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=201773.msg4361811#msg4361811) (hi there Lief), but I digress. :P
All a most surprising outcome - a near Pub wave, which as per usual peters out as one gets near the left coast. Well, perhaps not totally surprising to some (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=201773.msg4361811#msg4361811) (hi there Lief), but I digress. :P
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on November 05, 2014, 09:23:33 AM
Funny that despite my underestimate of republican pick-ups, the three pick-ups I predicted for dems: FL-02, NE-02, CA-31 will have turned out to be barely right! I'm still seeing 247 R seats in total after counting finishes in CA.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 05, 2014, 09:30:04 AM
If anyone wishes to find a silver lining to clutch to pathetically, MN-8 is a genuine relief. That was one of the worst moments of 2010.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on November 05, 2014, 09:34:30 AM
I'm glad that the Democrats finally got NE-02. Seems like all the hype about the ND-AL race fizzled out. Sinner lost by alot.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Holmes on November 05, 2014, 09:40:20 AM
Well, looking at the NYT House map (http://elections.nytimes.com/2014/results/house?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=span-abc-region®ion=span-abc-region&WT.nav=span-abc-region) (great utility that, but notice if you look at the NYT front page today, just how bitchy that "pinko rag" is about the Pub sweep, aka "anger sweeps the land, as the Pubs cash in on hate" as it were?), the Pubs have picked up 13 seats, and will win WA-04, CA-07, ME-02 and the two LA runoff seats, netting an 18 seat gain in the House. The Dems pick up ground as the votes are counted over the ensuing weeks in CA, so the Dems are going to hold CA-52 most probably :(, along with CA-16 and CA-26. And Barber will hold on in AZ-02, which is kind of a surprise to me, because McSally was an excellent candidate. I suspect Kirkpatrick did so well in AZ-01 due to a heavy Native American vote, which she cultivated assiduously. Good for her!
All a most surprising outcome - a near Pub wave, which as per usual peters out as one gets near the left coast. Well, perhaps not totally surprising to some (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=201773.msg4361811#msg4361811) (hi there Lief), but I digress. :P
All a most surprising outcome - a near Pub wave, which as per usual peters out as one gets near the left coast. Well, perhaps not totally surprising to some (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=201773.msg4361811#msg4361811) (hi there Lief), but I digress. :P
Why are you sad that a sexual predator might lose in CA-52?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 05, 2014, 09:50:14 AM
Oh, I made my comments on the Pub disappointment thread about CA-52. I really didn't follow the sexual harassment charges and counter charges going back and forth, and have no opinion about that. If he engaged in that activity, he should be sued, or be prosecuted if serious enough. But he denies it all is my impression.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 05, 2014, 10:02:34 AM
An 18 seat gain in the House and 9 seats in the Senate would be a rout. I'm still a bit skeptical it will happen.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: jimrtex on November 05, 2014, 10:12:13 AM
Ann Kirkpatrick up 53.4%-46.8% in AZ-1. Wow. And Barber down 36 votes in AZ-2.
The early voting counting machine broke in Cochise County, and the ballots are being moved to Graham County to be counted.
Barber carried Pima County 52%-48%
McSalley is up better than 2:1 in Cochise.
Pima turnout was 60% of 2012.
Coshise turnout (counted) is 25% of 2012.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 5280 on November 05, 2014, 10:48:27 AM
So is AZ-2 going to be another recount? Seems like a never ending battle.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on November 05, 2014, 10:52:07 AM
Torie, what makes you think Barber will pull AZ-2 out?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on November 05, 2014, 11:06:30 AM
If anyone wishes to find a silver lining to clutch to pathetically, MN-8 is a genuine relief. That was one of the worst moments of 2010.
Indeed, especially as Nolan and the DCCC ran awful campaigns. Mills was a bad candidate and a horrendous fit for the district, but they managed to actually make him sympathetic. Here's some info: http://www.mprnews.org/story/2014/10/22/anti-mills-ads-backfire
The theme of the ads and the point that Mills is a millionaire out to improve things for himself like Romney is a good talking point, but the ads portrayed this terribly. The last DCCC one which I was seeing constantly had a fairly condescending tone along the lines of "Don't vote for Stewart Mills. Like seriously, don't, it's not a good idea, trust us, he's not for you." akin to that of a parent telling their kid they shouldn't hang out with this other kid who's "bad news".
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 05, 2014, 11:19:02 AM
Torie, what makes you think Barber will pull AZ-2 out?
Late counted votes, provisionals, and so forth, tend to lean Dem, typically lower SES voters. But my statement was made before Jimtex said a bunch of votes had not been counted in Cochise, which is the Pub stronghold of the CD. So Barber is probably going down, making the Pub gain 19 seats, and if the gay guy somehow manages to win in CA-52 (unlikely but possible), that will make for an even score - the result I characterized would be a big surprise, but not totally shocking to me. I perceived that the Dem turnout would suck, and in most places it did.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rob in cal on November 05, 2014, 11:42:41 AM
More funny outcomes, McConell with a better victory margin than Booker.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rob in cal on November 05, 2014, 12:04:45 PM
Do we really know that Sarvis the Libertarian "took" votes from Gillespie. His support levels were just as strong, or stronger in areas won by Warner, FWIW.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on November 05, 2014, 12:26:08 PM
Compared to some of his other colleagues, Booker performed rather solidly (Franken, Durbin, T. Udall). Looks like he's no longer "underperformin Cory"
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on November 05, 2014, 12:28:18 PM
Quote
Robynn Tysver @RobynnTysver 1m1 minute ago
Lee Terry is conceding this afternoon, several sources said today. He can't make up the numbers in Douglas County.
Lee Terry is conceding this afternoon, several sources said today. He can't make up the numbers in Douglas County.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 05, 2014, 12:32:37 PM
It's pretty incredible what states the tsunami hit and which it didn't. I think this is more of an indication of disastrous turnout rather than swinge in the electorate.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on November 05, 2014, 12:35:13 PM
I'm glad Terry is conceding. Let us have our 2nd pickup.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mehmentum on November 05, 2014, 12:35:53 PM
Do we really know that Sarvis the Libertarian "took" votes from Gillespie. His support levels were just as strong, or stronger in areas won by Warner, FWIW.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on November 05, 2014, 12:36:08 PM
Cotton carried AR-02 53/47. Yikes.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maistre on November 05, 2014, 12:53:07 PM
What are we waiting for from AK?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RI on November 05, 2014, 12:54:08 PM
Did anyone else notice how poorly Childers did in the Mississippi Delta?
Absentee ballots.
What are we waiting for from AK?
Absentee ballots.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: jimrtex on November 05, 2014, 01:03:54 PM
Torie, what makes you think Barber will pull AZ-2 out?
Late counted votes, provisionals, and so forth, tend to lean Dem, typically lower SES voters. But my statement was made before Jimtex said a bunch of votes had not been counted in Cochise, which is the Pub stronghold of the CD. So Barber is probably going down, making the Pub gain 19 seats, and if the gay guy somehow manages to win in CA-52 (unlikely but possible), that will make for an even score - the result I characterized would be a big surprise, but not totally shocking to me. I perceived that the Dem turnout would suck, and in most places it did.
In 2012, Barber won the early voting, and is doing so in 2014. McSally received 60% of the election day votes yesterday. So she might not match her 2/3 support in Cochise on election day, but should still roll up a few thousand vote margin. Arizona requires receipt of mail ballots by election day, so voters as early as last Wednesday were urged to walk their ballots to a polling place.
The news on Cochise County was from their elections web site.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 05, 2014, 03:12:25 PM
I'm glad Terry is conceding. Let us have our 2nd pickup.
Obama still has his magic in NE-02? LOL.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Matty on November 05, 2014, 03:25:40 PM
Begich being a bitch and not conceding. Even dems on twitter are calling him out.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: njwes on November 05, 2014, 03:26:37 PM
Compared to some of his other colleagues, Booker performed rather solidly (Franken, Durbin, T. Udall). Looks like he's no longer "underperformin Cory"
I guess, but they were against B- and C-list Republicans. Jeff Bell was a D-list also-ran has-been. I'm so embarrassed that the NJ GOP chose him; just like the special election last year, a missed opportunity.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort on November 05, 2014, 03:26:53 PM
Begich being a bitch and not conceding. Even dems on twitter are calling him out.
Oh god.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2014, 03:31:00 PM
Begich being a bitch and not conceding. Even dems on twitter are calling him out.
I wouldn't concede if I were Begich, either. He's leading the early vote that's in so far, and more of it is still out. I doubt there are enough votes outstanding for Begich to win, but why concede until all the votes have been counted?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 05, 2014, 04:27:08 PM
Begich being a bitch and not conceding. Even dems on twitter are calling him out.
I wouldn't concede if I were Begich, either. He's leading the early vote that's in so far, and more of it is still out. I doubt there are enough votes outstanding for Begich to win, but why concede until all the votes have been counted?
^^^^
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 05:07:05 PM
Begich being a bitch and not conceding. Even dems on twitter are calling him out.
I wouldn't concede if I were Begich, either. He's leading the early vote that's in so far, and more of it is still out. I doubt there are enough votes outstanding for Begich to win, but why concede until all the votes have been counted?
^^^^
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 05:22:56 PM
Races still uncalled on the NYT:
AZ-02 - McSally (R) ahead by 46 votes. Presumably what's out is more Republican territory, but this could go either way.
CA-07 - Ose (R) up by about 3,000 votes with absentees uncounted. Even though they'll likely skew Dem, Ose probably hangs on. R+1
CA-09 - Don't know why this is uncalled, McNerney (D) should win.
CA-16 - Costa (D) is narrowly behind, but the late vote should skew Dem. Costa probably hangs on.
CA-17 - Only question is whether Honda (D) or Khanna (D) win. Honda is currently ahead by ~3,500 votes.
CA-26 - Brownley (D) is barely ahead, but she should hold on.
CA-31 - Aguilar (D) should win. D+1. This, NE-02, and FL-02 will be the only Dem pickups.
CA-52 - DeMaio (R) narrowly ahead. Could go either way.
LA-05 and LA-06 - Republicans will hold these seats in the runoffs. Ralph Abraham and Garrett Graves will be new congressmen.
MD-06 - Don't know why this is still uncalled. Delaney (D) will win.
NE-02 - See above, Ashford (D) will win and Terry has already conceded. D+1
NY-25 - Slaughter (D) up by around 500 votes. She probably hangs on.
WA-04 - The only question here is which Republican wins the head to head, Newhouse or Didier.
So assuming Republicans win AZ-02 and CA-07 with Democrats holding/winning the rest, the final count will be 249-187, a net gain of R+14.
AZ-02 - McSally (R) ahead by 46 votes. Presumably what's out is more Republican territory, but this could go either way.
CA-07 - Ose (R) up by about 3,000 votes with absentees uncounted. Even though they'll likely skew Dem, Ose probably hangs on. R+1
CA-09 - Don't know why this is uncalled, McNerney (D) should win.
CA-16 - Costa (D) is narrowly behind, but the late vote should skew Dem. Costa probably hangs on.
CA-17 - Only question is whether Honda (D) or Khanna (D) win. Honda is currently ahead by ~3,500 votes.
CA-26 - Brownley (D) is barely ahead, but she should hold on.
CA-31 - Aguilar (D) should win. D+1. This, NE-02, and FL-02 will be the only Dem pickups.
CA-52 - DeMaio (R) narrowly ahead. Could go either way.
LA-05 and LA-06 - Republicans will hold these seats in the runoffs. Ralph Abraham and Garrett Graves will be new congressmen.
MD-06 - Don't know why this is still uncalled. Delaney (D) will win.
NE-02 - See above, Ashford (D) will win and Terry has already conceded. D+1
NY-25 - Slaughter (D) up by around 500 votes. She probably hangs on.
WA-04 - The only question here is which Republican wins the head to head, Newhouse or Didier.
So assuming Republicans win AZ-02 and CA-07 with Democrats holding/winning the rest, the final count will be 249-187, a net gain of R+14.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 05:23:11 PM
On the topic of outstanding House races, over at DKE they write that if absentees behave similarly to 2010, Costa and Peters should both ultimately pull it out (so a net zero in California), but Slaughter could very well still lose to Assini: apparently on Election Night 2010 Maffei enjoyed a larger lead than Slaughter has now only to go on to lose to Buerkle regardless. (Also, my god, if absentees in upstate NY really do lean Republican Katko could end up with over 60% of the vote. Amazing.)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPQR on November 05, 2014, 05:28:13 PM
Pryor ended up losing by 17%...more than Hutto vs Graham in SC.
LOL
LOL
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 05:31:43 PM
Other outstanding races:
VA-Sen - Warner has stretched his lead, now leading by about 15,000 votes (was 13,000 earlier). A call on this one is probably forthcoming.
AK-Sen - Sullivan's 8,000 vote lead looks pretty solid, but the very thin probability of absentees skewing heavily Dem enough to save Begich keep this uncalled.
LA-Sen - Landrieu 42, Cassidy 41, Maness 14. Runoff.
VT-Gov - Shumlin falls below 50% and wins by a pathetically narrow 2,000 vote margin. But since he'll likely stay ahead, the legislature will have no qualms about electing him. D hold.
AK-Gov - Walker is currently ahead by 3,000 votes here, but god only knows how the bush will vote in this race.
If Walker wins, it'll be a net of +2 for the GOP, +1 for Indies, and -3 for Dems. Truly stunning.
VA-Sen - Warner has stretched his lead, now leading by about 15,000 votes (was 13,000 earlier). A call on this one is probably forthcoming.
AK-Sen - Sullivan's 8,000 vote lead looks pretty solid, but the very thin probability of absentees skewing heavily Dem enough to save Begich keep this uncalled.
LA-Sen - Landrieu 42, Cassidy 41, Maness 14. Runoff.
VT-Gov - Shumlin falls below 50% and wins by a pathetically narrow 2,000 vote margin. But since he'll likely stay ahead, the legislature will have no qualms about electing him. D hold.
AK-Gov - Walker is currently ahead by 3,000 votes here, but god only knows how the bush will vote in this race.
If Walker wins, it'll be a net of +2 for the GOP, +1 for Indies, and -3 for Dems. Truly stunning.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ShadowRocket on November 05, 2014, 05:56:35 PM
Is there any idea of how much of a margin of the remaining vote Begich needs to survive?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: publicunofficial on November 05, 2014, 06:07:18 PM
Is there any idea of how much of a margin of the remaining vote Begich needs to survive?
Something like 60% from what I remember.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 5280 on November 05, 2014, 06:12:21 PM
AZ-2 as of now:
McSally: 50.6%
90,345
Barber: 49.9%
88,267
McSally: 50.6%
90,345
Barber: 49.9%
88,267
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 06:29:25 PM
With 100% in AZ-2, McSally leads 50.6%-49.4%. 2,078 votes -- difficult to see that being overcome with absentees. McSally will probably pull this one out.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on November 05, 2014, 06:29:57 PM
Barber has never gone down without a fight. He might have some life left.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 5280 on November 05, 2014, 06:39:52 PM
Lets just say Barber is done. It's over .5% difference.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ShadowRocket on November 05, 2014, 06:49:49 PM
Is there any idea of how much of a margin of the remaining vote Begich needs to survive?
Something like 60% from what I remember.
Thanks. I'd like to see Begich survive, but with a number like that it doesn't look good.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 05, 2014, 07:10:34 PM
Is there any idea of how much of a margin of the remaining vote Begich needs to survive?
Assuming 40K votes out per speculation on this thread, votes would need to fall 24,000-16,000; roughly 60/40.
Assuming 30K votes out, it would roughly have to be 19,000-11,000 or 63/37.
Assuming it's just the 22K absentees remaining, the vote would have to be 15,000-7,000 or 68/32.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Eraserhead on November 05, 2014, 07:21:18 PM
The bleeding just seems unrelenting. Of course, the Dems are losing NY-21 in a landslide.
()
()
Only 2% of the vote. Doesn't mean much of anything.
Maloney won, Torie! :P
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2014, 07:39:18 PM
Did anyone else notice Jim Himes won by only 51-49?! :o
Another race that was on nobody's radar screen.
Another race that was on nobody's radar screen.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Colbert on November 05, 2014, 07:44:11 PM
How did Owsley County, KY - the poorest county in America - vote?
68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes
68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes
lol
americain people... ()
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Smash255 on November 05, 2014, 07:51:06 PM
Did anyone else notice Jim Himes won by only 51-49?! :o
Another race that was on nobody's radar screen.
Another race that was on nobody's radar screen.
Much of Bridgeport appears to be out, though it is on the CT BOE site
53.7-46.3 according to the Harrtford Courant map
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 05, 2014, 07:56:16 PM
Did anyone else notice Jim Himes won by only 51-49?! :o
Another race that was on nobody's radar screen.
Another race that was on nobody's radar screen.
Democrats look to have done a decent job gerrymandering Connecticut.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 05, 2014, 07:57:10 PM
How did Owsley County, KY - the poorest county in America - vote?
68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes
68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes
lol
americain people... ()
Ah, so wonderfully stereotypical.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 05, 2014, 07:59:24 PM
Alaska won't start counting the 40k remaining ballots for another week.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Colbert on November 05, 2014, 08:01:12 PM
How did Owsley County, KY - the poorest county in America - vote?
68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes
68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes
that's true, but not completely
dem offers to poors obviously better economics and social policy than rep
but WITH that, they are for minorities quotas, LGBT's stuff, pro-immigration, against death penalty
a party with join dem economics (welfare state, obamacare -or something like obamacare-, winimum wage, fight against debt) and the societal points I was speak about, this party would easily win all elections
but that's for not have such party than bipartism is on place...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rbt48 on November 05, 2014, 08:03:48 PM
It was amazing to me that Lee Terry was as close to a win as he ended up being. Ashford's TV ads (and there were lots) all quoted Terry saying there was no way he would give up his salary during sequestration because he had a big house and a kid in college. Really, there was nothing that Terry could say in response! I think only the Republican tail wind kept the race from being a 10 point win.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 08:05:53 PM
Noticed something interesting about possible future GOP Congressman Mark Assini from NY-25: he was the Conservative Party nominee in neighboring NY-29 in 2004, when he garnered 6% of the vote.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: jd1433 on November 05, 2014, 08:07:38 PM
Did anyone else notice Jim Himes won by only 51-49?! :o
Another race that was on nobody's radar screen.
Another race that was on nobody's radar screen.
Democrats look to have done a decent job gerrymandering Connecticut.
It's not really a gerrymander if you don't have 1 GOP house seat where you threw all of your excess margin into make your other races easy.
CT is just that D on its own that they'll likely take them all anyway.
P.S. I do realize that a common tactic is to take the closest PVI seat you have and stretch it against things like media markets, your organizational strength, etc. so that it's expensive for a challenger (but that can backfire if it does switch as now you're disadvantaged).
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 05, 2014, 08:07:57 PM
Alaska won't start counting the 40k remaining ballots for another week.
Yeah, this will give us something to sweat about for a few weeks. :(
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: jimrtex on November 05, 2014, 08:09:17 PM
With 100% in AZ-2, McSally leads 50.6%-49.4%. 2,078 votes -- difficult to see that being overcome with absentees. McSally will probably pull this one out.
McSally received 46.9% of early votes, and 58.7% of the election day votes (71% of votes were early).
In this case, the early votes in Cochise County could not be counted because of machine failure. Election day results were about 8K:4K in the county, and it was so heavily Republican that it was around 11K:9K. The overall percentage for McSally in Cochise dropped from 68% to 60% with the inclusion of the early votes, but the margin increased from around 4K to 6K.
It is more probable that there will be stories about a stolen election, than Barber will win.
Factoids to be stressed:
5/6 of the vote is in Pima County, which Barber won easily.
The Douglas area on the border was carried by Barber, while McSally carried the military-dominated Sierra Vista area. But the county seat is in Bisbee.
The early ballots in heavily Republican Cochise County were trucked out of the district to Graham County to be counted.
Even though the percentage of Republican votes dropped, the margin increased. Republicans have to resort to algebra and the use of percentages to explain why.
Tombstone, site of the Gunfight at the OK Corral is in Cochise County.
Fort Huachuca is a base for military intelligence operations, and was a based for the 1916 invasion of Mexico.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 05, 2014, 08:11:36 PM
Re AK: Amanda Coyne said the gap's too wide for Begich to close. So Sullivan will be declared the winner in a couple of weeks...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: jimrtex on November 05, 2014, 09:52:12 PM
Sacramento County has about 102,000 VBM to process, and 9,000 provisionals.
CA-3 is entirely within the county and has about 57% of the votes counted so far, which would indicate around 64,000 more votes to be counted, which is more than either Ose or Bera have received.
Ordinarily VBM would skew Republican, because it requires greater advance planning and perhaps a more stable mailing address. But in this election, election-day voting may have gone more Republican, because turnout would be more based on self-motivation. Folks aren't going to get enthused about voting Brown.
The next vote dump is 4 pm PST on Thursday.
CA-3 is entirely within the county and has about 57% of the votes counted so far, which would indicate around 64,000 more votes to be counted, which is more than either Ose or Bera have received.
Ordinarily VBM would skew Republican, because it requires greater advance planning and perhaps a more stable mailing address. But in this election, election-day voting may have gone more Republican, because turnout would be more based on self-motivation. Folks aren't going to get enthused about voting Brown.
The next vote dump is 4 pm PST on Thursday.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 09:53:43 PM
Another interesting comparison: in 2012, Chris Collins barely beat Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul 51-49. In 2014, he beat his Democratic opponent (admittedly a Some Dude) 72-28.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Talleyrand on November 05, 2014, 10:00:02 PM
Another interesting comparison: in 2012, Chris Collins barely beat Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul 51-49. In 2014, he beat his Democratic opponent (admittedly a Some Dude) 72-28.
Impressive, but that district always has wild swings. Even in the previous, more Democratic version of the district, Chris Lee won 74% of the vote in 2010, before Hochul won by 4 points a few months later.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 05, 2014, 10:03:59 PM
Udall has closed the margin a lot since last night. He may end up losing by around Hagan's margin. What could have been with a slightly better campaign...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Colbert on November 05, 2014, 10:33:08 PM
So uh, Pryor is currently losing 39-57. Looks like he got Blanched after all
It's pretty amazing how Pryor, Landrieu, Grimes, Tennant, Nunn are all posting Obama-esque numbers in these states. Very, very grim. To Appalachia, (D) = Obama now.
The Senate map is basically the presidential map from 2012. It's terrifying. We can't win the senate if we can only win blue states.
RED states
don't forgot the wise rule of uselectionsatlas ;)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Matty on November 05, 2014, 10:39:02 PM
Udall has closed the margin a lot since last night. He may end up losing by around Hagan's margin. What could have been with a slightly better campaign...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Colbert on November 05, 2014, 10:49:08 PM
How did Owsley County, KY - the poorest county in America - vote?
68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes
68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes
lol
americain people... ()
Ah, so wonderfully stereotypical.
stereotypicals are statistically more true than wrong ;)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 05, 2014, 10:53:33 PM
Oddly enough, Tacherra is currently leading (1.0%) by more than DeMaio is (0.6%). Ose looks OK, but further pickup opportunities in CA (and NY-25 hundreds of miles away) still very unclear.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: jimrtex on November 05, 2014, 11:10:40 PM
Fresno County has 32.5K absentee, and 10.1K provisional votes to count. 22% of the Fresno County vote was in CA-16, so this would indicate about 10K votes yet to count in Fresno/CA-16. The next vote dump in Fresno will be on Friday. Incidentally, only about 25% of absentee ballots in CA-16 were returned, compared to 38%% in CA-22.
I couldn't find any information about uncounted votes in Madera and Merced counties, which together have about 3/5 of the vote. Tacherra did slightly better (56.1% vs 54.2%) in early voting v. election day voting in Merced County. But the votes to be counted would be Tuesday-arriving absentee ballots which might not be the same proportions.
I'd expect Ashley Swearingen to have a bit of a coat tail effect. Fresno should be provincial enough to turnout to vote for their mayor.
I couldn't find any information about uncounted votes in Madera and Merced counties, which together have about 3/5 of the vote. Tacherra did slightly better (56.1% vs 54.2%) in early voting v. election day voting in Merced County. But the votes to be counted would be Tuesday-arriving absentee ballots which might not be the same proportions.
I'd expect Ashley Swearingen to have a bit of a coat tail effect. Fresno should be provincial enough to turnout to vote for their mayor.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RI on November 05, 2014, 11:27:20 PM
The Onion strikes again. (http://www.theonion.com/articles/republicans-poised-to-retain-control-of-senate,37366/)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 05, 2014, 11:28:51 PM
The Onion strikes again. (http://www.theonion.com/articles/republicans-poised-to-retain-control-of-senate,37366/)
I'm not sure that the Onion is a satire site any more.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: jimrtex on November 05, 2014, 11:29:41 PM
98%+ of CA-26 is in Ventura County, and 84% of Ventura votes were in CA-26. But I could find no information on votes to be counted.
There shouldn't be any swings caused by different county reporting schedules, but it is conceivable that the ballots would be processed by precinct. I think it would be a lot more reliable to sort ballots by precinct, before verifying singatures, and running the ballots through the vote counting machines.
There shouldn't be any swings caused by different county reporting schedules, but it is conceivable that the ballots would be processed by precinct. I think it would be a lot more reliable to sort ballots by precinct, before verifying singatures, and running the ballots through the vote counting machines.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: jimrtex on November 05, 2014, 11:54:27 PM
CA-31 is entirely in San Bernardino County.
There are 44,436 mail ballots to be counted, 15,834 in CA-31. There are also 3,238 election days ballots to be counted (countywide) and 14,922 provisionals. It would take about a 55:45 breakdown for Chabot for a 2nd Miracle in the 31st.
There are 44,436 mail ballots to be counted, 15,834 in CA-31. There are also 3,238 election days ballots to be counted (countywide) and 14,922 provisionals. It would take about a 55:45 breakdown for Chabot for a 2nd Miracle in the 31st.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: jimrtex on November 06, 2014, 12:02:02 AM
CA-52 is entirely in San Diego County, and represents about 29% of the San Diego vote. There are about 180K mail ballots/provisionals to be counted in the county, which would indicate around 52K in CA-52, which would represent around 1/4 of the total vote in the district.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 06, 2014, 12:05:50 AM
Alaska won't start counting the 40k remaining ballots for another week.
Damn, 40,000?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Matty on November 06, 2014, 12:21:39 AM
I'm pretty sure it's 24k. No idea where the 40k number came from.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on November 06, 2014, 12:22:19 AM
Alaska won't start counting the 40k remaining ballots for another week.
Damn, 40,000?
It's more like somewhere between 22,000 and 40,000. The difference are absentee/early ballots that were requested, but not received.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 06, 2014, 12:35:02 AM
Alaska won't start counting the 40k remaining ballots for another week.
Damn, 40,000?
It's more like somewhere between 22,000 and 40,000. The difference are absentee/early ballots that were requested, but not received.
Ahh, I see.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Matty on November 06, 2014, 12:47:44 AM
There is a tiny window for Begich, but I think it is safe to say that it would be a very profound miracle if he pulled it out. Looks like the GOP wave did not carry Sullivan to a wide victory though.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Smash255 on November 06, 2014, 01:05:57 AM
I'm pretty sure it's 24k. No idea where the 40k number came from.
24k early ballots/absentees not counted yet
13k absentees not returned yet (few day window can be given because of the remote locations)
13k Provisionals (estimated based off Provisionals in 2010)
So there is 24k that needs to be counted, potential for another 26k on top of that, but in reality maybe half get counted. That is probably where the 40k was coming from.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on November 06, 2014, 01:27:57 AM
Quote
Taniel @Taniel
Good news for Rep. Barber (D) in #AZ02: He's down 1,300, but 34K ballots left in friendly Pima vs just 3600 in red Cochise. (cc @Redistrict)
Good news for Rep. Barber (D) in #AZ02: He's down 1,300, but 34K ballots left in friendly Pima vs just 3600 in red Cochise. (cc @Redistrict)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Ebowed on November 06, 2014, 02:24:36 AM
How did Owsley County, KY - the poorest county in America - vote?
68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes
68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes
lol
americain people... ()
Ah, so wonderfully stereotypical.
Do you think it would be worth checking how many people in that county rely on the government subsidies they continually vote against?
Of course it wouldn't be worth checking.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 06, 2014, 02:45:31 AM
I just realised something - this is the first election since the rise of the Tea Party to not feature at least one Republican "giveaway" for being too conservative. Was there even a clear example in the House?
That is actually misleading as it narrows the confines of seats being blown to one category. Republicans have been blowing seats every cycle going back as far as 1996 for a variety of stupid reasons.
1996 - Larry Pressler
1998 - Lauch Faircloth
2000 - Bill McCollum, John Ashcroft and Rod Grams
2002 - Tim Hutchinson, Susan Terrell (lost to LAndrieu in runoff)
2004 - Pete Coors
2006 - Allen and Burns
2008 - Stevens and to some extent Dole.
2010 - Angle, Buck and O'Donnell (and I would would say McMahon)
2012 - Akin, Mourdock, Berg, and Rehberg
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPQR on November 06, 2014, 02:49:09 AM
Interesting how eventually Gardner won the Jefferson "bellwether" County only by 120 votes (0.1%).
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Tender Branson on November 06, 2014, 07:15:01 AM
Looks like Gardner may end up winning by just 2.5 points ...
BTW: Did anyone find the AP election results page ?
BTW: Did anyone find the AP election results page ?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 06, 2014, 08:02:25 AM
How did Owsley County, KY - the poorest county in America - vote?
68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes
68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes
lol
americain people... ()
Ah, so wonderfully stereotypical.
stereotypicals are statistically more true than wrong ;)
Oh, I know. I was saying you were the embodiment of a stereotype.
Looks like Gardner may end up winning by just 2.5 points ...
BTW: Did anyone find the AP election results page ?
BTW: Did anyone find the AP election results page ?
What the hell was that about? I tried finding the AP page for an European friend just a half hour before the polls closed in PA (so when KY was already closed!) and there wasn't anything! I just figured they had it extremely difficult to find but did they really not have a page?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Badger on November 06, 2014, 10:39:16 AM
I want to apologize to the Forum: I said McConnell would win by 6-8%. He won by 15%.
Accepted, but watch yourself.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 06, 2014, 12:12:43 PM
How did Owsley County, KY - the poorest county in America - vote?
68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes
68.9% McConnell
27.1% Grimes
lol
americain people... ()
Ah, so wonderfully stereotypical.
Do you think it would be worth checking how many people in that county rely on the government subsidies they continually vote against?
Of course it wouldn't be worth checking.
I'm sure people there love their government subsidies - that depend to a large extent on them not having jobs. They'd rather have jobs. Democrats have done nothing to convince them they will reverse economic decline in the area.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 06, 2014, 12:33:36 PM
Owsley county has always voted Republican; that part of Kentucky is very remote and industrial activity was not dense enough for UMWA organisation to be successful. Its also the sort of place where all young people leave (isn't that exactly what the snobs here usually demand of such people?). If the Democrats were ever to seriously appeal to people there (lol) then maybe they would actually have to offer something, or at least successfully demonstrate why voting Republican is an 'error'. You don't get to do nothing and then go 'BWAHAH LOOK AT THOSE STUPID HICKS VOTING AGAINST THEIR INTERESTS LOL' every two years.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 06, 2014, 01:36:42 PM
Owsley County's uninsured rate dropped from 26% to 13% in the last year because of Obamacare.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Beet on November 06, 2014, 01:41:12 PM
This is a county Democrats should be winning, or at least doing better than 27% in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 06, 2014, 01:48:50 PM
Are we going to see any results about how many write-in votes there were for Senate in Alabama?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2014, 01:50:52 PM
Owsley County's uninsured rate dropped from 26% to 13% in the last year because of Obamacare.
An excellent point.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Smash255 on November 06, 2014, 02:30:33 PM
Owsley County's uninsured rate dropped from 26% to 13% in the last year because of Obamacare.
An excellent point.
McConnell did run on getting rid of Obamacare would not hurt the exchanges. Of course it was bs.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Brittain33 on November 06, 2014, 02:37:36 PM
Owsley County's uninsured rate dropped from 26% to 13% in the last year because of Obamacare.
An excellent point.
McConnell did run on getting rid of Obamacare would not hurt the exchanges. Of course it was bs.
Al has often made the point about the Democratic Party not having anything to offer the people of Appalachia, and this seems to be a counterpoint. Certainly it's true that the Democrats can't do anything to bring jobs to many of these communities.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Clarko95 📚💰📈 on November 06, 2014, 03:27:56 PM
Owsley County's uninsured rate dropped from 26% to 13% in the last year because of Obamacare.
An excellent point.
McConnell did run on getting rid of Obamacare would not hurt the exchanges. Of course it was bs.
Al has often made the point about the Democratic Party not having anything to offer the people of Appalachia, and this seems to be a counterpoint. Certainly it's true that the Democrats can't do anything to bring jobs to many of these communities.
Health insurance or Medicaid is good and I'm sure they appreciate it, but that's only something people focus on when the bill comes due. If they're sitting around the house, staring at the walls, and possibly abusing drugs/alcohol because they're unemployed or underemployed and lost their old jobs in coal or any other industry, that's probably something that's foremost in their mind, because that's what they experience every day. What's the unemployment or underemployment rate in the area? Info on drug usage, alcohol abuse, dropout rate, teen pregnancy, etc. might clue us in to what's happening on the ground in those areas, and could be a reason why they still voted for McConnell.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 06, 2014, 05:07:42 PM
I want to apologize to the Forum: I said McConnell would win by 6-8%. He won by 15%.
Accepted, but watch yourself.
Don't go away angry, Badgie. Just go away. ;)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 06, 2014, 07:22:26 PM
Two hilarious county results:
King County, TX
Cornyn - 87 (96.7%)
Paddock - 2 (2.2%)
Alameel - 1 (1.1%)
Harding County, SD
Rounds - 371 (62.0%)
Pressler - 121 (20.2%)
Howie - 60 (10.0%)
Weiland - 46 (7.7%)
King County, TX
Cornyn - 87 (96.7%)
Paddock - 2 (2.2%)
Alameel - 1 (1.1%)
Harding County, SD
Rounds - 371 (62.0%)
Pressler - 121 (20.2%)
Howie - 60 (10.0%)
Weiland - 46 (7.7%)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rbt48 on November 06, 2014, 07:26:02 PM
I kept searching for the AP site. I found that the Tennessee link had test results. On searching with Google, I found a site where AP bragged about their top drawer election return reporting, but no links to any sites. It seemed to imply that you could PAY to get access.
I really missed their county-by county result option for all races.
I really missed their county-by county result option for all races.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 06, 2014, 08:11:51 PM
Owsley County's uninsured rate dropped from 26% to 13% in the last year because of Obamacare.
Yes this is something that could maybe have been worked with, at least as a start (with promises of better to come maybe). I don't think this was the case though, was it? Didn't the Democratic nominee basically allow Mr Turtle to neutralise that point?
In any case the point is never to do something and expect people to be grateful. You need to use what you've done (or promise or whatever) to actively win people over (or keep them depending on the circumstances). I sometimes get the impression that a lot of Democrats these days regard that as uncouth.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: jimrtex on November 06, 2014, 09:05:42 PM
Looks like Gardner may end up winning by just 2.5 points ...
BTW: Did anyone find the AP election results page ?
BTW: Did anyone find the AP election results page ?
It's probably in their agreements with newspapers that they don't bypass them.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 06, 2014, 09:39:01 PM
Looks like Gardner may end up winning by just 2.5 points ...
BTW: Did anyone find the AP election results page ?
BTW: Did anyone find the AP election results page ?
It's probably in their agreements with newspapers that they don't bypass them.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 06, 2014, 10:00:34 PM
Owsley County's uninsured rate dropped from 26% to 13% in the last year because of Obamacare.
Yes this is something that could maybe have been worked with, at least as a start (with promises of better to come maybe). I don't think this was the case though, was it? Didn't the Democratic nominee basically allow Mr Turtle to neutralise that point?
In any case the point is never to do something and expect people to be grateful. You need to use what you've done (or promise or whatever) to actively win people over (or keep them depending on the circumstances). I sometimes get the impression that a lot of Democrats these days regard that as uncouth.
Yes this is true. Grimes was too cowardly to run a positive campaign on how successful Obamacare had been.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on November 06, 2014, 10:07:50 PM
Barber is only 363 votes down in AZ-02.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 06, 2014, 10:43:07 PM
Barber is only 363 votes down in AZ-02.
Lots of votes to be counted. He'll win along with Dems in all the outstanding house races.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RI on November 07, 2014, 12:33:36 AM
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_07_11_14_12_33_03.png)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 07, 2014, 01:03:07 AM
All Democrats just gained some tenths of percentage points in CA. Peters gained a lead against DeMaio -- probably on track for a win here. Shame DeMaio got swiftboated. Ose and Tacherra, for now, are still ahead.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 07, 2014, 01:04:22 AM
All Democratic incumbent reps will win in California. There are about 1.7 million ballots to be counted:
http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/statewide-elections/2014-general/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf
http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/statewide-elections/2014-general/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: publicunofficial on November 07, 2014, 01:08:15 AM
-AP has (finally) called the MD-06 race for John Delaney.
-John Chabot has conceded in CA-31, Pete Aguilar gives Dems their 3rd House pick-up
-Scott Peters has pulled ahead of Carl DeMaio.
Current tally:
Scott Peters (D) - 50.27% - 78,837
Carl DeMaio (R) - 49.73% - 77,976
-Doug Ose's lead against Ami Bera has dropped to 2183 votes (1.72%, on election night it was 2.74%). If the rest of the late votes follow the current trend, Bera will end up winning with room to spare, similar to the situation in AZ-2 and CA-16.
Overall, it looks like the 114th Congress will be 246 R - 189 D in the House, barring something unexpected in the Louisiana runoffs.
-John Chabot has conceded in CA-31, Pete Aguilar gives Dems their 3rd House pick-up
-Scott Peters has pulled ahead of Carl DeMaio.
Current tally:
Scott Peters (D) - 50.27% - 78,837
Carl DeMaio (R) - 49.73% - 77,976
-Doug Ose's lead against Ami Bera has dropped to 2183 votes (1.72%, on election night it was 2.74%). If the rest of the late votes follow the current trend, Bera will end up winning with room to spare, similar to the situation in AZ-2 and CA-16.
Overall, it looks like the 114th Congress will be 246 R - 189 D in the House, barring something unexpected in the Louisiana runoffs.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on November 07, 2014, 01:17:44 AM
I still think Tacherra actually has a shot at this, but we'll see. And if he does, wow, he's very conservative (mentioned "biblical values" and "constitutional purity" in his video). Costa really blew it. Even if Costa wins, he blew it harder than most D+8 Congressmen.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 07, 2014, 01:20:57 AM
All Democratic incumbent reps will win in California. There are about 1.7 million ballots to be counted:
http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/statewide-elections/2014-general/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf
http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/statewide-elections/2014-general/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf
Movement toward the Ds has actually already started, but just to keep hope alive, I want to note that in the primaries this year absentees generally helped Republican candidates. 1.7 mil comes out to ~32000 per district -- in practice, the two really questionable districts (CA-7 and CA-16) are in Central California, which has abysmally low turnout, so there's probably less outstanding in both. (All other CA ones, I think, it's clear the Democrat will win). That means Bera needs, at minimum, 53.4% of outstanding ballots to be for him just to have a shot -- an improvement of more than 4 points compared to current results, which already take some absentees into account. That's the best-case scenario. There's a shot, but I doubt it. Costa looks better -- counting the way I did for CA-7, he needs just 51.1%. But considering CA-16 is the single lowest-turnout district in all of California, the 'real' figure he needs may be somewhat higher. (32,000 ballots would be 30% of all votes in CA-16 -- a really implausibly high figure).
In short terms: McNerney/Brownley/Aguilar/Peters have all basically certainly won. Meanwhile, it can't be called, but I'd rather be Ose than Bera right now. In Costa/Tacherra, the history looks good for Costa (he came back from worse in terms of number-of-votes-margin against Vidak, though turnout was higher in 2010), but the math seems to me to look good for a Tacherra victory by the skin of his teeth. (As an aside, you ever gotten that feeling on a math test where you can't quite believe the answer you got but can't find any mistakes in your work either? That's what CA-16 looks like to me).
Barber has won in AZ, almost certainly, with stuff still out in Pima and McSally barely holding on. She might improve on the 2012 margin, but still. In upstate NY, late counting usually benefits Republicans, unlike in CA, and in 2010 Buerkle made up a margin bigger than the one Assini is down by now to beat Maffei, but this time turnout is not Republicans' friend: fewer people voted now, and it doesn't seem there's enough out there for Assini to win. But a victory for Assini remains conceivable.
My God, the eastern Arizona results are such outliers. And while most unexpected Democratic victories were due to either weak Republican candidates (Southerland/Terry/Domino come to mind) or underestimated turnout (MN-8), neither explanation seems to really hold up in Arizona. What happened to Tobin/McSally?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 07, 2014, 01:35:28 AM
So at this point, it seems the only way for Democrats to take back the House before the next census is a massive wave. Luckily, massive waves seem to be becoming more and more common.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Sbane on November 07, 2014, 01:38:47 AM
Elk Grove may end up saving Bera. It is a middle class, fairly new suburb with lots of minorities, including blacks. It is the sort of place that would love to vote by mail. Also, it is not correct to compare Bera's district to Baca's. Sure, both have lots of minorities but they are different. The minorities in Bera's district are middle class and less likely to sit out an election. Also Bera isn't thwt reliant on young people in his district as it is basically suburban.
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/06/0622020.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/06/0622020.html
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on November 07, 2014, 01:40:36 AM
Tobin is a bore, and I think McSally is pretty overrated.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: jimrtex on November 07, 2014, 02:11:39 AM
Barber has won in AZ, almost certainly, with stuff still out in Pima and McSally barely holding on. She might improve on the 2012 margin, but still.
There were also about 10K provisional ballots, which at 11;20 AM were still in possession of the Recorder. They may trickle through depending on how long they take to verify.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: jimrtex on November 07, 2014, 03:05:06 AM
Sacramento County has about 102,000 VBM to process, and 9,000 provisionals.
CA-3 is entirely within the county and has about 57% of the votes counted so far, which would indicate around 64,000 more votes to be counted, which is more than either Ose or Bera have received.
Ordinarily VBM would skew Republican, because it requires greater advance planning and perhaps a more stable mailing address. But in this election, election-day voting may have gone more Republican, because turnout would be more based on self-motivation. Folks aren't going to get enthused about voting Brown.
The next vote dump is 4 pm PST on Thursday.
CA-3 is entirely within the county and has about 57% of the votes counted so far, which would indicate around 64,000 more votes to be counted, which is more than either Ose or Bera have received.
Ordinarily VBM would skew Republican, because it requires greater advance planning and perhaps a more stable mailing address. But in this election, election-day voting may have gone more Republican, because turnout would be more based on self-motivation. Folks aren't going to get enthused about voting Brown.
The next vote dump is 4 pm PST on Thursday.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Sbane on November 07, 2014, 05:47:28 AM
So a likely recount in Ca-7? That should help Bera even if he ends up a few votes short in the first count.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 07, 2014, 08:11:53 AM
Yes, McSally is in trouble. Barber closed the gap by about 900 votes on a Pima vote dump (not all in the CD presumably) of 16,000, and there are 24,000 Pima votes left to go, which at the same close rate, would give Barber an additional margin of about 1,350 votes. McSally has a lead of 363, and with respect to the 3,200 votes out in Cochise, she generated in the last Cochise vote dump a margin at about a 10% rate, so at that rate she would get about a 320 margin from the votes left there. 363 + 320 = 683, which is about 667 short of Barber (1350-683 = 667). So the trend line does not look good for her.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 07, 2014, 08:15:00 AM
So at this point, it seems the only way for Democrats to take back the House before the next census is a massive wave. Luckily, massive waves seem to be becoming more and more common.
Waves seem only to be benefiting Republicans. House control is safe Republican for the next century. #100yearmajority #GregWalden
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 07, 2014, 09:04:47 AM
Well according to one number cruncher (http://www.fresnobee.com/2014/11/06/4222044_costa-needs-urban-fresnos-help.html?sp=/99/217/&rh=1), the Pub may have a slight advantage in CA-16. The details of his number crunching are not available. Assuming he knows what he is doing, that seat might be the best bet for the Pubs to pick up their 247th seat. Who knew? If the Pub wins, he had better try to figure out how to become an Hispanic folk hero, if he plans to hang around after 2016.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on November 07, 2014, 09:47:48 AM
MD-06 just called for Delaney.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 5280 on November 07, 2014, 10:30:56 AM
Tobin is a bore, and I think McSally is pretty overrated.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Senator Cris on November 07, 2014, 01:13:05 PM
Virginia Senate: Gillespie Concedes to Warner
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on November 07, 2014, 03:25:20 PM
Yes, McSally is in trouble. Barber closed the gap by about 900 votes on a Pima vote dump (not all in the CD presumably) of 16,000, and there are 24,000 Pima votes left to go, which at the same close rate, would give Barber an additional margin of about 1,350 votes. McSally has a lead of 363, and with respect to the 3,200 votes out in Cochise, she generated in the last Cochise vote dump a margin at about a 10% rate, so at that rate she would get about a 320 margin from the votes left there. 363 + 320 = 683, which is about 667 short of Barber (1350-683 = 667). So the trend line does not look good for her.
The rest of Cochise (or most of the rest of Cochise) came in and McSally's up 772. I still think Barber will pull it out, but this'll be within a couple hundred votes.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 07, 2014, 03:39:25 PM
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_07_11_14_12_33_03.png)
a few borders stick out, but for the most part this was a national election.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 07, 2014, 05:16:27 PM
Yes, McSally is in trouble. Barber closed the gap by about 900 votes on a Pima vote dump (not all in the CD presumably) of 16,000, and there are 24,000 Pima votes left to go, which at the same close rate, would give Barber an additional margin of about 1,350 votes. McSally has a lead of 363, and with respect to the 3,200 votes out in Cochise, she generated in the last Cochise vote dump a margin at about a 10% rate, so at that rate she would get about a 320 margin from the votes left there. 363 + 320 = 683, which is about 667 short of Barber (1350-683 = 667). So the trend line does not look good for her.
The rest of Cochise (or most of the rest of Cochise) came in and McSally's up 772. I still think Barber will pull it out, but this'll be within a couple hundred votes.
Yes, McSally had a good vote dump (about two thirds of what remained in Cochise, except perhaps for provisional ballots), running quite a bit above the trend line, helping to close much of the gap, but not all of it. Fun finale here, with suspense remaining perhaps until the very last vote dump. Who could ask for anything better? :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on November 07, 2014, 06:16:17 PM
Barber is a fighter. I think he'll pull it out.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: free my dawg on November 07, 2014, 08:59:13 PM
Things don't look good for the chronic masturbator. (https://twitter.com/CahnEmily/status/530887726342877184)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on November 07, 2014, 09:10:53 PM
Another vote dump and McSally's ahead by 317.
Edit: ANOTHER (I think the rest of Cochise...?) and she's at 509.
Edit: ANOTHER (I think the rest of Cochise...?) and she's at 509.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on November 07, 2014, 09:25:38 PM
How is the Peters/DeMaio even close?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 07, 2014, 11:29:49 PM
Updated Colorado results:
Mark Udall 923,210 46.15%
Cory Gardner 967,223 48.35%
...margin of 2.2% and shrinking...
Looks like it's going to be under a 2 point race. Hick now up 3.11 points.
Mark Udall 923,210 46.15%
Cory Gardner 967,223 48.35%
...margin of 2.2% and shrinking...
Looks like it's going to be under a 2 point race. Hick now up 3.11 points.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Matty on November 07, 2014, 11:41:23 PM
It's not surprising that the CO race was close. Latinos made of 14% of the electorate. Udall's ground game worked.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Holmes on November 08, 2014, 12:18:08 AM
It's not surprising that the CO race was close. Latinos made of 14% of the electorate. Udall's ground game worked.
No, if it worked, he would've won.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 08, 2014, 12:24:56 AM
It's not surprising that the CO race was close. Latinos made of 14% of the electorate. Udall's ground game worked.
I know you're trolling but Udall lost Pueblo County. That's proof Hispanics were taking a siesta on election day
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Matty on November 08, 2014, 12:58:41 AM
Then why is this race going back into the uncalled column? No way Gardner has won yet. He's up only 45,000.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on November 08, 2014, 01:05:01 AM
It's not surprising that the CO race was close. Latinos made of 14% of the electorate. Udall's ground game worked.
I know you're trolling but Udall lost Pueblo County. That's proof Hispanics were taking a siesta on election day
On the SOS site, Udall won Pueblo County by 262 votes.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 08, 2014, 01:10:54 AM
It's not surprising that the CO race was close. Latinos made of 14% of the electorate. Udall's ground game worked.
I know you're trolling but Udall lost Pueblo County. That's proof Hispanics were taking a siesta on election day
On the SOS site, Udall won Pueblo County by 262 votes.
It must have just flipped with the latest numbers today. Well whatever, the point still stands as Oballer won by 14 points in 2012
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 08, 2014, 01:34:30 AM
I'm probably going to do a bigger post on this when I have time, but here's a precinct-level map of the Alaska Senate election day precinct vote results. As usual for Alaska precinct-level data, this doesn't reflect any absentee or early votes, which are not broken down by precinct. A minor candidate supposedly won the Southwest Alaskan bush precinct in yellow. That will probably be a deep shade of red when the results are made official.
()
Here's a map of the election day precinct vote results by county equivalent. Note that I didn't attempt to allocate the absentee and early votes to the county equivalents. It's too early to do so and there is no reliable way to do so out in the bush, anyway.
()
Finally, here is the county equivalent swing in the election day precinct vote results from 2008 to 2014. I measured swing by difference in overall margin between the two candidates running in those years. Again, I didn't allocate the absentee, early or questioned votes in either year in order to make an apples-to-apples comparison. Because HD and precinct lines have changed since 2008, this is the only swing map one can make.
()
()
Here's a map of the election day precinct vote results by county equivalent. Note that I didn't attempt to allocate the absentee and early votes to the county equivalents. It's too early to do so and there is no reliable way to do so out in the bush, anyway.
()
Finally, here is the county equivalent swing in the election day precinct vote results from 2008 to 2014. I measured swing by difference in overall margin between the two candidates running in those years. Again, I didn't allocate the absentee, early or questioned votes in either year in order to make an apples-to-apples comparison. Because HD and precinct lines have changed since 2008, this is the only swing map one can make.
()
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Frodo on November 08, 2014, 01:37:28 AM
I'm probably going to do a bigger post on this when I have time, but here's a precinct-level map of the Alaska Senate election day precinct vote results. As usual for Alaska precinct-level data, this doesn't reflect any absentee or early votes, which are not broken down by precinct. A minor candidate supposedly won the Southwest Alaskan bush precinct in yellow. That will probably be a deep shade of red when the results are made official.
()
Here's a map of the election day precinct vote results by county equivalent. Note that I didn't attempt to allocate the absentee and early votes to the county equivalents. It's too early to do so and there is no reliable way to do so out in the bush, anyway.
()
Finally, here is the county equivalent swing in the election day precinct vote results from 2008 to 2014. I measured swing by difference in overall margin between the two candidates running in those years. Again, I didn't allocate the absentee, early or questioned votes in either year in order to make an apples-to-apples comparison. Because HD and precinct lines have changed since 2008, this is the only swing map one can make.
()
()
Here's a map of the election day precinct vote results by county equivalent. Note that I didn't attempt to allocate the absentee and early votes to the county equivalents. It's too early to do so and there is no reliable way to do so out in the bush, anyway.
()
Finally, here is the county equivalent swing in the election day precinct vote results from 2008 to 2014. I measured swing by difference in overall margin between the two candidates running in those years. Again, I didn't allocate the absentee, early or questioned votes in either year in order to make an apples-to-apples comparison. Because HD and precinct lines have changed since 2008, this is the only swing map one can make.
()
Do you have a map showing the racial/ethnic breakdown by precinct?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 08, 2014, 01:39:29 AM
So... Udall lost Jefferson by 120 votes... sigh.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 08, 2014, 01:43:33 AM
Great work on the Alaska maps, cinyc. I was wondering about the swing from 2008 and hoping someone would make a map. It looks more or less like I expected - swing to Begich in the Native areas, swing to the GOP in the Southeast.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 08, 2014, 01:44:53 AM
Do you have a map showing the racial/ethnic breakdown by precinct?
No. I don't think that data is easily available, either. You should be able to find the data for county equivalents on the Census website. The general rule is that except in the Juneau area, the redder the county equivalent, the more Alaska Native it is.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Frodo on November 08, 2014, 01:52:34 AM
Do you have a map showing the racial/ethnic breakdown by precinct?
No. I don't think that data is easily available, either. You should be able to find the data for county equivalents on the Census website. The general rule is that except in the Juneau area, the redder the county equivalent, the more Alaska Native it is.
That's pretty much what I suspected -that most whites are settled in or around Anchorage and Juneau with the vast hinterlands dominated by native Alaskans. I just wanted visual proof to see if I was right, whether the racial breakdown corresponds to the vote.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 08, 2014, 02:11:07 AM
Do you have a map showing the racial/ethnic breakdown by precinct?
No. I don't think that data is easily available, either. You should be able to find the data for county equivalents on the Census website. The general rule is that except in the Juneau area, the redder the county equivalent, the more Alaska Native it is.
That's pretty much what I suspected -that most whites are settled in or around Anchorage and Juneau with the vast hinterlands dominated by native Alaskans. I just wanted visual proof to see if I was right, whether the racial breakdown corresponds to the vote.
here's a quick, crude map I made using the Census DataMapper (https://www.census.gov/geo/maps-data/maps/datamapper.html)
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 08, 2014, 02:13:30 AM
Great work on the Alaska maps, cinyc. I was wondering about the swing from 2008 and hoping someone would make a map. It looks more or less like I expected - swing to Begich in the Native areas, swing to the GOP in the Southeast.
It will be interesting to see if the swing in the Southeast holds of you allocate the early and absentee votes. Juneau has a lot of remaining absentees. It might be that Republicans waited until election day to vote.
Here's a chart of the swing for each county equivalent. Positive numbers are pro-Begich. Negative numbers are pro-Sullivan. Sullivan really cleaned up in Mat-Su and the Kenai Peninsula compared to Stevens in 2008. And there are more votes there than in the bush county equivalents that swung heavily to Begich. Anchorage swung slightly to Begich.
()
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Panda Express on November 08, 2014, 05:04:51 AM
So... Udall lost Jefferson by 120 votes... sigh.
Actually, he just flipped it (winning it by about 600 votes).
So Udall managed to win all three of the suburb counties and still lose by about 2 points. Turnout in Denver was 10% below statewide turnout
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 08, 2014, 07:28:35 AM
Another vote dump and McSally's ahead by 317.
Edit: ANOTHER (I think the rest of Cochise...?) and she's at 509.
Edit: ANOTHER (I think the rest of Cochise...?) and she's at 509.
McSally seems to be rising from the dead, and now has the edge again.
"Republican Martha McSally’s lead in the closely-contested Congressional District 2 race shrunk to 317 votes Friday night when an additional batch of Pima County early ballots were tabulated.
...
The Pima County Elections Department counted about 16,000 more votes, mostly early ballots late Friday. More than 10,200 of them fell into Congressional District 2.
The latest vote tabulation released Friday evening leaves Pima County with up to 12,000 more votes to count. Those are mostly provisional ballots that have to be verified, some of which will ultimately be disqualified.
Cochise County has another 1,100 provisional ballots to verify and count.
County officials expect to count more ballots and release updated totals Saturday afternoon."
Crunching the numbers from the above data, and what Nathan put up, Barber using the same trend lines closes the gap by 341 votes, assuming all the provisional ballots are accepted as valid, all of which will not be. That's 168 votes short of the finish line for him.
()
It does appear checking the Cochise County elections website, that all of its votes have been counted (with the last 1,100 provisional ballot vote dump giving McSally a huge boost, bumping her lead up from 317 to 509 per Nathan's reporting).
We might know one way or the other this afternoon whether the Pubs have picked up their 247th seat. At the moment however, the McSally camp must be a lot happier today than it was a couple of days ago.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 08, 2014, 08:12:19 AM
So... Udall lost Jefferson by 120 votes... sigh.
Actually, he just flipped it (winning it by about 600 votes).
So Udall managed to win all three of the suburb counties and still lose by about 2 points. Turnout in Denver was 10% below statewide turnout
There are still thousands of ballots to be counted in Denver. So you can't say that yet.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 5280 on November 08, 2014, 08:43:19 AM
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/53335/148748/Web01/en/summary.html (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/53335/148748/Web01/en/summary.html)
So Udall won all the suburb counties and still lost? Wow, bunch of idiots living in Denver voted for the Uterus.
So Udall won all the suburb counties and still lost? Wow, bunch of idiots living in Denver voted for the Uterus.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Sbane on November 08, 2014, 08:58:45 AM
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/53335/148748/Web01/en/summary.html (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/53335/148748/Web01/en/summary.html)
So Udall won all the suburb counties and still lost? Wow, bunch of idiots living in Denver voted for the Uterus.
So Udall won all the suburb counties and still lost? Wow, bunch of idiots living in Denver voted for the Uterus.
Yeah, good luck ever winning a presidential election in Colorado again.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Holmes on November 08, 2014, 09:08:32 AM
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/53335/148748/Web01/en/summary.html (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/53335/148748/Web01/en/summary.html)
So Udall won all the suburb counties and still lost? Wow, bunch of idiots living in Denver voted for the Uterus.
So Udall won all the suburb counties and still lost? Wow, bunch of idiots living in Denver voted for the Uterus.
Yeah, good luck ever winning a presidential election in Colorado again.
Colorado might favor the Democrats when it comes to the presidential elections, but if they can't win races like this, it's gonna be a problem. The Democrats' inability to get out their voters in this race and others around the country is a catastrophic failure on their part.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 5280 on November 08, 2014, 09:31:47 AM
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/53335/148748/Web01/en/summary.html (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/53335/148748/Web01/en/summary.html)
So Udall won all the suburb counties and still lost? Wow, bunch of idiots living in Denver voted for the Uterus.
So Udall won all the suburb counties and still lost? Wow, bunch of idiots living in Denver voted for the Uterus.
Yeah, good luck ever winning a presidential election in Colorado again.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Holmes on November 08, 2014, 09:46:57 AM
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/53335/148748/Web01/en/summary.html (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/53335/148748/Web01/en/summary.html)
So Udall won all the suburb counties and still lost? Wow, bunch of idiots living in Denver voted for the Uterus.
So Udall won all the suburb counties and still lost? Wow, bunch of idiots living in Denver voted for the Uterus.
Yeah, good luck ever winning a presidential election in Colorado again.
Yeah, and the reason New Hampshire is Democratic is because of those damn Massholes.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RogueBeaver on November 08, 2014, 11:09:06 AM
Here's Cohn's succinct explanation + change from 2010 map. (https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/530924569520275456)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: politicallefty on November 08, 2014, 12:18:14 PM
Colorado might favor the Democrats when it comes to the presidential elections, but if they can't win races like this, it's gonna be a problem. The Democrats' inability to get out their voters in this race and others around the country is a catastrophic failure on their part.
Udall may have lost and we may also have lost the CO Senate (by a single seat), but Hickenlooper was reelected along with a Democratic Majority in the CO House. Democrats are still running stronger in Colorado than in other states that are widely considered to be more Democratic-leaning (such as PA). I'm disappointed that we didn't do better, but ultimately, Colorado is still in swing-state territory.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 08, 2014, 01:15:34 PM
In other news, my number crunching projects Ose "cruising" to victory in CA-07 by 216 votes. The late votes just aren't working as well as the Dems hoped so far (at least in CA-07 and AZ-02), except in CA-52, well, in the context of the Pub getting some really bad press at the end.
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on November 08, 2014, 01:33:03 PM
Shame. I was really hoping that Bera could hold on. He's got to be my favorite Unitarian Universalist elected in the past 10 years.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: publicunofficial on November 08, 2014, 02:09:57 PM
AP has called a few House races.
-WA-04 has been called for Dan Newhouse (R), over Clint Didier (R).
-CA-17 has been called for Michael Honda (D), over Ro Khanna (D)
-CA-09 has been called for Jerry McNerney (D), over Tony Amador (R)
-CA-52 has been called for Scott Peters (D), over Carl DeMaio (R)
CA-07, CA-26, CA-16, NY-25, and AZ-02 remain uncalled.
-WA-04 has been called for Dan Newhouse (R), over Clint Didier (R).
-CA-17 has been called for Michael Honda (D), over Ro Khanna (D)
-CA-09 has been called for Jerry McNerney (D), over Tony Amador (R)
-CA-52 has been called for Scott Peters (D), over Carl DeMaio (R)
CA-07, CA-26, CA-16, NY-25, and AZ-02 remain uncalled.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on November 08, 2014, 02:54:12 PM
-CA-52 has been called for Scott Peters (D), over Carl DeMaio (R)
Hopefully this is the end of DeMaio's career. Filth.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 08, 2014, 03:04:02 PM
In other news, my number crunching projects Ose "cruising" to victory in CA-07 by 216 votes. The late votes just aren't working as well as the Dems hoped so far (at least in CA-07 and AZ-02), except in CA-52, well, in the context of the Pub getting some really bad press at the end.
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I did miss CA-09, but when I added it, the 216 projected lead for Ose never changed ... which was - well - disturbing! It turns out, that the smaller the CA-07 share of the Sacramento County pie, the higher than Bera percentage margin with respect to the last vote dump, with the two exactly offsetting each other. That was not a satisfactory state of affairs, so I hunted around, and found the CA-07 vote totals before the last vote dump, which allowed me to calculate the actual number of CA-07 votes added from the last VBM vote dump, and it turned out to be a bit smaller share of that particular county vote dump, than its share of all of the votes counted. So that pushed Bera's margin up, and thereby cut Ose's projected lead down to 119. However, that is assuming CA-07's share of the remaining votes is the same as all of the votes counted so far, rather than its a bit lower share of the last VBM vote dump. If you use the lower percentage share number, which would seem more appropriate since it is the same ilk of ballots being counted, it bounces back up to 145.
()
Fun stuff! :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 08, 2014, 04:13:15 PM
It will be interesting to see if the swing in the Southeast holds of you allocate the early and absentee votes. Juneau has a lot of remaining absentees. It might be that Republicans waited until election day to vote.
Here's a chart of the swing for each county equivalent. Positive numbers are pro-Begich. Negative numbers are pro-Sullivan. Sullivan really cleaned up in Mat-Su and the Kenai Peninsula compared to Stevens in 2008. And there are more votes there than in the bush county equivalents that swung heavily to Begich. Anchorage swung slightly to Begich.
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Here's a chart of the swing for each county equivalent. Positive numbers are pro-Begich. Negative numbers are pro-Sullivan. Sullivan really cleaned up in Mat-Su and the Kenai Peninsula compared to Stevens in 2008. And there are more votes there than in the bush county equivalents that swung heavily to Begich. Anchorage swung slightly to Begich.
()
One note: Petersburg in the chart is for the old Petersburg Census Area. Petersburg became a borough last year. The Census Bureau finally allocated the outlying portions of the Census Area that were not included in the borough to Prince of Wales-Hyder some time this year. Petersburg Borough took part of the Hoonah-Angoon Census area, leaving a triangle between its northern border and Juneau's southern border. Their 2014 U.S. County shapefile reflects the new boundaries. Eventually, I'll update the charts and map to reflect this new geography.
I don't think many people live in the Hoonah-Angoon triangler, but they are included in the Petersburg precinct, unless the state changed precinct boundaries to match. Precincts crossing borough or census area lines isn't unheard of in Alaska, so I doubt they did. Most of the Kake and all of the Port Alexander precincts were moved to the Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area, including the portion of the Kake precinct that includes the village where you'd expect most people to live. As with other precincts that cross lines, I will allocate Kake to Prince of Wales-Hyder based on the location of the precinct.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 08, 2014, 04:53:36 PM
The fact that Udall is only going to lose by 2 points in the end proves it was his terrible campaign that did him in. What a dickweed.
At least Bailey lost by such a landslide that he was probably doomed regardless.
At least Bailey lost by such a landslide that he was probably doomed regardless.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 08, 2014, 05:18:04 PM
The fact that Udall is only going to lose by 2 points in the end proves it was his terrible campaign that did him in. What a dickweed.
At least Bailey lost by such a landslide that he was probably doomed regardless.
At least Bailey lost by such a landslide that he was probably doomed regardless.
One could make the argument that it was his campaign that kept it close. There's really no way to prove one way or other.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 08, 2014, 05:21:20 PM
The fact that Udall is only going to lose by 2 points in the end proves it was his terrible campaign that did him in. What a dickweed.
At least Bailey lost by such a landslide that he was probably doomed regardless.
At least Bailey lost by such a landslide that he was probably doomed regardless.
One could make the argument that it was his campaign that kept it close. There's really no way to prove one way or other.
Not really. His campaign was universally panned across the political spectrum and got him tons of negative press. "Mark Uterus" became a running gag. It was the reason the Denver Post endorsed Gardner.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 08, 2014, 07:27:26 PM
The fact that Udall is only going to lose by 2 points in the end proves it was his terrible campaign that did him in. What a dickweed.
At least Bailey lost by such a landslide that he was probably doomed regardless.
At least Bailey lost by such a landslide that he was probably doomed regardless.
One could make the argument that it was his campaign that kept it close. There's really no way to prove one way or other.
Not really. His campaign was universally panned across the political spectrum and got him tons of negative press. "Mark Uterus" became a running gag. It was the reason the Denver Post endorsed Gardner.
Just because the press lampooned the campaign doesn't mean it was bad. It only seems so because he lost. Granted, he did lose so it wasn't as good as it could have been but saying it's terrible is lazy analysis. The media was sh*tting all over Obama's campaign in 2012 (class warfare) until he won.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 08, 2014, 09:14:00 PM
Oh, I just noticed that Ro Khanna lost. Wonderful news!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on November 08, 2014, 09:40:28 PM
Oh, I just noticed that Ro Khanna lost. Wonderful news!
He's to the right of Mike Honda, no?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Dixie Reborn on November 08, 2014, 09:47:53 PM
Oh, I just noticed that Ro Khanna lost. Wonderful news!
He's to the right of Mike Honda, no?
Yes. He was the De Facto Republican in this race. I'm legit surprised he did as well as he did.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on November 08, 2014, 10:09:34 PM
Oh, I just noticed that Ro Khanna lost. Wonderful news!
He's to the right of Mike Honda, no?
Yes. He was the De Facto Republican in this race. I'm legit surprised he did as well as he did.
The sad thing is he's probably going to be elected the U.S. House at some point once Honda retires or he carpetbags to an open seat.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: publicunofficial on November 09, 2014, 12:39:17 AM
-More ballots won't be counted in AZ-02 until Monday. Both sides are preparing to demand a recount.
-Scott Peters' win over Carl DeMaio has grown to 4,771 votes in the most recent counts. There's about 6K-8K votes left to count.
-Scott Peters' win over Carl DeMaio has grown to 4,771 votes in the most recent counts. There's about 6K-8K votes left to count.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 09, 2014, 01:55:34 AM
My guess is the US house will be 246-248 R, 188-87 D. It will either tie or break the post World War II numbers.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 09, 2014, 09:44:56 AM
My guess is the US house will be 246-248 R, 188-87 D. It will either tie or break the post World War II numbers.
Thank you gerrymandering!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 09, 2014, 11:51:34 AM
No, it would be about this lopsided even sans gerrymandering. But 2012 would have been much closer. The main effect of gerrymandering is to freeze past victories into the map.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 09, 2014, 12:57:38 PM
My guess is the US house will be 246-248 R, 188-87 D. It will either tie or break the post World War II numbers.
246 to 249. CA-16, AZ-02 and CA-07 remain in play.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: jimrtex on November 09, 2014, 02:39:15 PM
I did miss CA-09, but when I added it, the 216 projected lead for Ose never changed ... which was - well - disturbing! It turns out, that the smaller the CA-07 share of the Sacramento County pie, the higher than Bera percentage margin with respect to the last vote dump, with the two exactly offsetting each other. That was not a satisfactory state of affairs, so I hunted around, and found the CA-07 vote totals before the last vote dump, which allowed me to calculate the actual number of CA-07 votes added from the last VBM vote dump, and it turned out to be a bit smaller share of that particular county vote dump, than its share of all of the votes counted.
If I were counting ballots, I would do it on a precinct-by-precinct basis. Recounts are done on a precinct basis, the challenger even gets to choose the order of precincts recounted. So you will want all the ballots together. Hand counts are also done by precinct.
Return envelopes would be easily sorted by precinct, so they would be sorted out even before signature verification is done.
Even if the ballots have the ballot type coded on them, manual auditing would be easier. If you have a stack of 87 ballots (presumably hand counted) if they were all from one precinct, you could run them through the counting machine and check whether the ballot count for the precinct increased by 87, and the results were plausible. Run a mix and you can't be sure whether, the single Romney vote in a 90% black precinct isn't anomalous. But if that precinct get 75 Romney votes you know something is wrong.
But they might take all the ballots from one batch of envelopes, verify them all and run them through precinct by precinct.
But there could still be geographic biases. If a single batch came from a particular post office branch, then it will show up in the distribution of precincts of the ballots, since most voters will mail at a nearer post office rather than a further one.
And there could also be differences connected to political leaning. Late arriving ballots are tending to be more Democratic, than election-day and earlier returned ballots. This is true, even though mail voters tend to be more Republican.
Republicans tend to plan better, and have more stable living conditions. Democrats tend to procrastinate, and may have been waiting to mail their ballot until they could also make a bill payment and not have the check bounce.
CA-6 the district in the city of Sacramento (or at least more inside) is more Democratic. So it would be reasonable to expect that a larger share of the last-arriving ballots compared to other ballots to be from CA-6 rather than CA-7.
There have been a couple of interesting cases where the late-arriving ballots didn't match this pattern. The late arriving ballots from Madera County were stronger for Tacherra than the earlier votes.
And in San Diego, the late-arriving ballots have been much more strongly for Peters (7% difference) This indicates that late deciders broke based on their awareness of the sexual harassment allegations.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 09, 2014, 03:17:58 PM
My guess is the US house will be 246-248 R, 188-87 D. It will either tie or break the post World War II numbers.
246 to 249. CA-16, AZ-07 and CA-07 remain in play.
I know, but I expect the GOP to lose at least one of those three you mentioned.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort on November 09, 2014, 05:01:14 PM
-CA-52 has been called for Scott Peters (D), over Carl DeMaio (R)
Hopefully this is the end of DeMaio's career. Filth.
QFT
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on November 09, 2014, 06:10:03 PM
Are there still more votes to count in NY-25?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 09, 2014, 09:42:47 PM
Are there still more votes to count in NY-25?
Yes. Domestic absentees can trickle in until Tuesday and will be counted on Wednesday. I'm also not sure if they have counted all of the provisional ballots yet.
Unfortunately, Slaughter isn't going to get slaughtered here, though. Her margin is relatively comfortable.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: MarkUterus on November 10, 2014, 01:31:32 AM
Well, we got Maffei by 20 points. That was good enough for me, even if getting Slaughter as well would have been even better... I wonder if Maggie Brooks would have won in a midterm or if the under the radar nature of Assini's campaign was what helped him get so close to such a massive upset.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 10, 2014, 01:39:56 AM
Well, we got Maffei by 20 points. That was good enough for me, even if getting Slaughter as well would have been even better... I wonder if Maggie Brooks would have won in a midterm or if the under the radar nature of Assini's campaign was what helped him get so close to such a massive upset.
LOL, I'm fine with conservadems losing D+5 districts by 20 points. A real Democrat will win next time. I'm glad Slaughter survived.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: MarkUterus on November 10, 2014, 01:49:48 AM
Maffei is a conservadem? On what planet? Be careful what you wish for. Katko won by 20 points and he won every municipality in the district (aside from Syracuse and DeWitt). If he could beat Dan Maffei by 20, he's going to be a tough target next cycle.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: smoltchanov on November 10, 2014, 02:23:07 AM
Well, we got Maffei by 20 points. That was good enough for me, even if getting Slaughter as well would have been even better... I wonder if Maggie Brooks would have won in a midterm or if the under the radar nature of Assini's campaign was what helped him get so close to such a massive upset.
LOL, I'm fine with conservadems losing D+5 districts by 20 points. A real Democrat will win next time. I'm glad Slaughter survived.
Maffei is anything, but conservadem. Only absolute idiots and loonies may think so. He is a typical "moderate liberal". Bad campaigner and politician in general - yes, bit conservadem - no way. He wasn't Barrow or McIntyre or Matheson, even less - Larry McDonald. They REALLY were conservadems))))
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 10, 2014, 09:23:32 AM
Well, we got Maffei by 20 points. That was good enough for me, even if getting Slaughter as well would have been even better... I wonder if Maggie Brooks would have won in a midterm or if the under the radar nature of Assini's campaign was what helped him get so close to such a massive upset.
LOL, I'm fine with conservadems losing D+5 districts by 20 points. A real Democrat will win next time. I'm glad Slaughter survived.
Maffei is anything, but conservadem. Only absolute idiots and loonies may think so. He is a typical "moderate liberal". Bad campaigner and politician in general - yes, bit conservadem - no way. He wasn't Barrow or McIntyre or Matheson, even less - Larry McDonald. They REALLY were conservadems))))
I think I'll take my idea on who is conservative and liberal from someone who doesn't have his views skewed by his government's absurdity.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: smoltchanov on November 10, 2014, 09:51:46 AM
Well, we got Maffei by 20 points. That was good enough for me, even if getting Slaughter as well would have been even better... I wonder if Maggie Brooks would have won in a midterm or if the under the radar nature of Assini's campaign was what helped him get so close to such a massive upset.
LOL, I'm fine with conservadems losing D+5 districts by 20 points. A real Democrat will win next time. I'm glad Slaughter survived.
Maffei is anything, but conservadem. Only absolute idiots and loonies may think so. He is a typical "moderate liberal". Bad campaigner and politician in general - yes, bit conservadem - no way. He wasn't Barrow or McIntyre or Matheson, even less - Larry McDonald. They REALLY were conservadems))))
I think I'll take my idea on who is conservative and liberal from someone who doesn't have his views skewed by his government's absurdity.
And i reserve the right to comment these "your ideas" accordingly to my thinking..
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on November 10, 2014, 06:09:23 PM
Any new votes counted in CA or AZ-02?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: nclib on November 10, 2014, 07:00:55 PM
My guess is the US house will be 246-248 R, 188-87 D. It will either tie or break the post World War II numbers.
This means 12-15 net pickups, with 3 for the Dems and 15-18 for the GOP.
Pick-ups
Dem
CA-31 (open)
FL-2 (Southerland)
NE-2 (Terry)
GOP
NV-4 (Horsford)
TX-23 (Gallego)
NH-1 (Shea-Porter)
ME-2 (open)
IA-1 (open)
UT-4 (open)
WV-3 (Rahall)
GA-12 (Barrow)
NC-7 (open)
IL-10 (Schneider)
IL-12 (Enyart)
NY-1 (Bishop)
NY-21 (open)
NY-24 (Maffei)
FL-26 (Garcia)
Where else am I missing? Which of these has the highest D-PVI?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on November 10, 2014, 07:03:52 PM
My guess is the US house will be 246-248 R, 188-87 D. It will either tie or break the post World War II numbers.
This means 12-15 net pickups, with 3 for the Dems and 15-18 for the GOP.
Pick-ups
Dem
CA-31 (open)
FL-2 (Southerland)
NE-2 (Terry)
GOP
NV-4 (Horsford)
TX-23 (Gallego)
NH-1 (Shea-Porter)
ME-2 (open)
IA-1 (open)
UT-4 (open)
WV-3 (Rahall)
GA-12 (Barrow)
NC-7 (open)
IL-10 (Schneider)
IL-12 (Enyart)
NY-1 (Bishop)
NY-21 (open)
NY-24 (Maffei)
FL-26 (Garcia)
Where else am I missing? Which of these has the highest D-PVI?
Schneider is D+8. I don't think that is topped anywhere.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on November 10, 2014, 08:50:01 PM
All of the House races are probably toss-ups in 2016 except for NC-07, GA-12, WV-03 and maybe UT-04.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: MalaspinaGold on November 10, 2014, 09:22:03 PM
With 33,000 left to count in CA-07, Ose is up 530; I think Bera wins this.
http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article3727753.html (http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article3727753.html)
McSally's lead has dropped to 179 votes; unsure of how many are left to count. A judge also refused her move to stop counting some of the provisional ballots.
http://www.chron.com/news/article/McSally-lawyers-trying-to-block-some-ballots-5883510.php (http://www.chron.com/news/article/McSally-lawyers-trying-to-block-some-ballots-5883510.php)
http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article3727753.html (http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article3727753.html)
McSally's lead has dropped to 179 votes; unsure of how many are left to count. A judge also refused her move to stop counting some of the provisional ballots.
http://www.chron.com/news/article/McSally-lawyers-trying-to-block-some-ballots-5883510.php (http://www.chron.com/news/article/McSally-lawyers-trying-to-block-some-ballots-5883510.php)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 10, 2014, 10:44:57 PM
Another interesting juxtaposition: the seat the Republicans captured with the greatest margin is David Rouzer in NC-7. Next was Elise Stefanik in NY-21, which was also seen as a fairly good bet. Then came John Katko in NY-24, who was seen as a decided underdog nearly through the end of the contest.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rbt48 on November 10, 2014, 10:56:59 PM
It is extremely frustrating how in all these close western US races, the final votes always seem to favor the Democrat. Of course it is a given that provisional favor the D candidate; just the nature of the beast that is provisional voting. But absentees is another phenomenon entirely. The CA Democrats must have this process down to a much better game plan.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 10, 2014, 11:00:01 PM
It is extremely frustrating how in all these close western US races, the final votes always seem to favor the Democrat. Of course it is a given that provisional favor the D candidate; just the nature of the beast that is provisional voting. But absentees is another phenomenon entirely. The CA Democrats must have this process down to a much better game plan.
I think Democratic constituencies are just more likely to procrastinate (young people, poor people, etc.) and send in their ballots later, as opposed to Republican constituencies (old folks) who like to do things as early as possible.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Linus Van Pelt on November 10, 2014, 11:13:01 PM
It is extremely frustrating how in all these close western US races, the final votes always seem to favor the Democrat. Of course it is a given that provisional favor the D candidate; just the nature of the beast that is provisional voting. But absentees is another phenomenon entirely. The CA Democrats must have this process down to a much better game plan.
These states allow you to vote by mail without a special reason (and in some cases only have vote by mail), so the mail votes aren't necessarily absentee in the conventional sense.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rbt48 on November 11, 2014, 12:01:46 AM
It is extremely frustrating how in all these close western US races, the final votes always seem to favor the Democrat. Of course it is a given that provisional favor the D candidate; just the nature of the beast that is provisional voting. But absentees is another phenomenon entirely. The CA Democrats must have this process down to a much better game plan.
These states allow you to vote by mail without a special reason (and in some cases only have vote by mail), so the mail votes aren't necessarily absentee in the conventional sense.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: smoltchanov on November 11, 2014, 12:34:55 AM
By the way: The BlueDogs were nearly halved (-8/19) - as everytime...
Regretfully - yes. Their districts gradually become too difficult even for them. Left-wing loonies may rejoice: now they have "real" representatives in these districts - ultra-right Republicans. These loonies make me laugh loudly: for them - the worse - the better! Everything for the sake of "purity" and "principles" (THEIR principles, of course).
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 11, 2014, 12:57:22 AM
My guess is the US house will be 246-248 R, 188-87 D. It will either tie or break the post World War II numbers.
This means 12-15 net pickups, with 3 for the Dems and 15-18 for the GOP.
Pick-ups
Dem
CA-31 (open)
FL-2 (Southerland)
NE-2 (Terry)
GOP
NV-4 (Horsford)
TX-23 (Gallego)
NH-1 (Shea-Porter)
ME-2 (open)
IA-1 (open)
UT-4 (open)
WV-3 (Rahall)
GA-12 (Barrow)
NC-7 (open)
IL-10 (Schneider)
IL-12 (Enyart)
NY-1 (Bishop)
NY-21 (open)
NY-24 (Maffei)
FL-26 (Garcia)
Where else am I missing? Which of these has the highest D-PVI?
You forgot the two LA districts; they are both likely Democratic pickups; that takes it up to 246. Then you AZ-4, CA-7, CA-16. I think they will carry at least one of them, for 247
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 11, 2014, 01:04:51 AM
With 33,000 left to count in CA-07, Ose is up 530; I think Bera wins this.
http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article3727753.html (http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article3727753.html)
McSally's lead has dropped to 179 votes; unsure of how many are left to count. A judge also refused her move to stop counting some of the provisional ballots.
http://www.chron.com/news/article/McSally-lawyers-trying-to-block-some-ballots-5883510.php (http://www.chron.com/news/article/McSally-lawyers-trying-to-block-some-ballots-5883510.php)
http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article3727753.html (http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article3727753.html)
McSally's lead has dropped to 179 votes; unsure of how many are left to count. A judge also refused her move to stop counting some of the provisional ballots.
http://www.chron.com/news/article/McSally-lawyers-trying-to-block-some-ballots-5883510.php (http://www.chron.com/news/article/McSally-lawyers-trying-to-block-some-ballots-5883510.php)
As to AZ-02:
"McSally leads Barber by 179 votes with about 4,000 left to count in Pima County including write-ins. An automatic recount will be triggered if the two candidates end up separated by about 200 votes or less."
That means about 2,200 left to count in Pima in AZ-02. That means Barber needs to get about a 54-46 split on the balance (a bit more if one deletes the write ins and over and under votes), to close the gap aside from all of the legal contretemps, and absent a recount changing the numbers much. I am fairly confident that has not been his margin in the late counted votes - absent something weird happening with the provisionals, which may be what this is all about.
As to CA-07, it appears to me that Bera is on the pace to a lead by a tiny margin, very tiny. Close to two thirds of the remaining ballots have been counted outstanding in the CD since the prior vote dump (much of the County is not in the CD from looking at the votes remaining in the County) and Ose's lead dropped by just a bit more than two thirds. So the trend line change from the previous late vote dump would have to hold - as near steady as an expensive Swiss watch, to bag it for Bera.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Tender Branson on November 11, 2014, 02:43:15 AM
Update for Alaska:
* 34.884 absentee ballots left to count that have arrived so far (deadline to arrive is Nov. 19)
* 2.651 early votes
* 13.038 questioned ballots (typically consisting of votes cast at the wrong polling place)
* 10.512 absentee ballots sent to potential voters, but not yet returned as of Sunday night
Summary: 50.573 ballots will be counted for sure (not all of them will be valid of course) and a handful of the 10.512 could be counted as well, if returned by the deadline.
http://www.adn.com/article/20141110/more-50000-votes-remain-be-counted-heated-alaska-races
* 34.884 absentee ballots left to count that have arrived so far (deadline to arrive is Nov. 19)
* 2.651 early votes
* 13.038 questioned ballots (typically consisting of votes cast at the wrong polling place)
* 10.512 absentee ballots sent to potential voters, but not yet returned as of Sunday night
Summary: 50.573 ballots will be counted for sure (not all of them will be valid of course) and a handful of the 10.512 could be counted as well, if returned by the deadline.
http://www.adn.com/article/20141110/more-50000-votes-remain-be-counted-heated-alaska-races
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: jimrtex on November 11, 2014, 04:31:18 AM
It is extremely frustrating how in all these close western US races, the final votes always seem to favor the Democrat. Of course it is a given that provisional favor the D candidate; just the nature of the beast that is provisional voting. But absentees is another phenomenon entirely. The CA Democrats must have this process down to a much better game plan.
The following is mixing races, and jurisdictions and is dependent on me having written down some numbers, but it should be correct as far as flavor.
Based on the Ose-Bera race in CA-7, 72% of ballots were counted on election night. So that would make it:
72% on election night.
38% in-person.
34% mail ballots.
28% since election night.
28% mail ballots.
Note the in-person/mail distribution is based on Sacramento County, while the election night/since election night is based on CA-7.
The late-counted ballots in CA-7 have been 4.32% more favorable for Bera (48.63% election night, 52.95% late counted).
In the gubernatorial race, county-wide results by mail are 1.52% more favorable for Brown than for the election day votes 62.59% vs 61.07%.
Based on distribution of ballot types and confabulating the two races and the county and district, it would suggest that the early-counted mail ballots were slightly more favorable to Kashari than the election day votes (around 1%).
Throwing in another tidbit from another county (Butte), Republicans are slightly (3%) more likely than Democrats to be PVBM voters, and around 10% more likely than minor party, and No Party Preference (NPP) voters.
In California, mail ballots must be in the hands of election officials by election night to be counted. So you have to mail a ballot back early enough, trust the USPS to only take a couple of days to deliver a ballot in a couple of days, walk your ballot to a polling place on election day, or take it to a drive-by collection location.
Republicans are a bit more likely to fill in their ballot and return it right away. They might live where they can trust the mail to be picked up by the USPS, or have stamps available. Democrats are more likely to stick their ballot below a stack of unpaid bills.
Signatures have to be verified. Ballots that are returned before the election can be handled and set aside to be counted. The crush on the last days can not. On election day, the staff is going to be busy. And the election officials are going to prefer to use regular staff, or hire temporary workers for a couple of weeks, rather than trying to hire and train workers for a day or two. If there were a law that said that all the ballots had to be counted by Wednesday or Friday, they could probably do it. But it easier to spread it out over time.
One thing that is bothersome in California is that the counties are independent on how they operate and even report things to the SOS. So some counties don't even bother to report the number of uncounted ballots, or only do it every couple of days. And counts are release in spurts. It can really give the impression that counties are holding on to ballots (eg in CA-16 where Fresno released some updates, the Madera, the some more in Fresno, and then Merced.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Sbane on November 11, 2014, 06:45:52 AM
It is extremely frustrating how in all these close western US races, the final votes always seem to favor the Democrat. Of course it is a given that provisional favor the D candidate; just the nature of the beast that is provisional voting. But absentees is another phenomenon entirely. The CA Democrats must have this process down to a much better game plan.
Since these are mostly permanent vote by mail voters, these people have a better turnout than Election Day voters due to the convenience of voting by mail. This means they more closely model a presidential election as opposed to a midterm election. Soft supporters of the democrats end up voting for them even during these waves whereas they might not have done so if they had to wait an hour in line.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Sbane on November 11, 2014, 07:15:05 AM
With 33,000 left to count in CA-07, Ose is up 530; I think Bera wins this.
http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article3727753.html (http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article3727753.html)
McSally's lead has dropped to 179 votes; unsure of how many are left to count. A judge also refused her move to stop counting some of the provisional ballots.
http://www.chron.com/news/article/McSally-lawyers-trying-to-block-some-ballots-5883510.php (http://www.chron.com/news/article/McSally-lawyers-trying-to-block-some-ballots-5883510.php)
http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article3727753.html (http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article3727753.html)
McSally's lead has dropped to 179 votes; unsure of how many are left to count. A judge also refused her move to stop counting some of the provisional ballots.
http://www.chron.com/news/article/McSally-lawyers-trying-to-block-some-ballots-5883510.php (http://www.chron.com/news/article/McSally-lawyers-trying-to-block-some-ballots-5883510.php)
As to AZ-02:
"McSally leads Barber by 179 votes with about 4,000 left to count in Pima County including write-ins. An automatic recount will be triggered if the two candidates end up separated by about 200 votes or less."
That means about 2,200 left to count in Pima in AZ-02. That means Barber needs to get about a 54-46 split on the balance (a bit more if one deletes the write ins and over and under votes), to close the gap aside from all of the legal contretemps, and absent a recount changing the numbers much. I am fairly confident that has not been his margin in the late counted votes - absent something weird happening with the provisionals, which may be what this is all about.
As to CA-07, it appears to me that Bera is on the pace to a lead by a tiny margin, very tiny. Close to two thirds of the remaining ballots have been counted outstanding in the CD since the prior vote dump (much of the County is not in the CD from looking at the votes remaining in the County) and Ose's lead dropped by just a bit more than two thirds. So the trend line change from the previous late vote dump would have to hold - as near steady as an expensive Swiss watch, to bag it for Bera.
What number of outstanding ballots are you assuming is in CD-7? Remember, this is basically half of the county by population and certainly casted more votes than CD-6 in this election. The other districts in Sacramento barely have any people in it. It might not be a bad assumption that of the 33,000 ballots left to county in the entire county, more than half would be in CD-7. Even if you are conservative, and say that only 15,000 are left in CD-7 (assuming the late voters are disproportionately poor democrats voting in CD-6), you still only need about a 52-48 Bera lead on the remaining ballots for him to win. Not easy to do, but it is certainly doable. And any recount should help Bera, IMHO.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 11, 2014, 08:23:22 AM
With 33,000 left to count in CA-07, Ose is up 530; I think Bera wins this.
http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article3727753.html (http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article3727753.html)
McSally's lead has dropped to 179 votes; unsure of how many are left to count. A judge also refused her move to stop counting some of the provisional ballots.
http://www.chron.com/news/article/McSally-lawyers-trying-to-block-some-ballots-5883510.php (http://www.chron.com/news/article/McSally-lawyers-trying-to-block-some-ballots-5883510.php)
http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article3727753.html (http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article3727753.html)
McSally's lead has dropped to 179 votes; unsure of how many are left to count. A judge also refused her move to stop counting some of the provisional ballots.
http://www.chron.com/news/article/McSally-lawyers-trying-to-block-some-ballots-5883510.php (http://www.chron.com/news/article/McSally-lawyers-trying-to-block-some-ballots-5883510.php)
As to AZ-02:
"McSally leads Barber by 179 votes with about 4,000 left to count in Pima County including write-ins. An automatic recount will be triggered if the two candidates end up separated by about 200 votes or less."
That means about 2,200 left to count in Pima in AZ-02. That means Barber needs to get about a 54-46 split on the balance (a bit more if one deletes the write ins and over and under votes), to close the gap aside from all of the legal contretemps, and absent a recount changing the numbers much. I am fairly confident that has not been his margin in the late counted votes - absent something weird happening with the provisionals, which may be what this is all about.
As to CA-07, it appears to me that Bera is on the pace to a lead by a tiny margin, very tiny. Close to two thirds of the remaining ballots have been counted outstanding in the CD since the prior vote dump (much of the County is not in the CD from looking at the votes remaining in the County) and Ose's lead dropped by just a bit more than two thirds. So the trend line change from the previous late vote dump would have to hold - as near steady as an expensive Swiss watch, to bag it for Bera.
What number of outstanding ballots are you assuming is in CD-7? Remember, this is basically half of the county by population and certainly casted more votes than CD-6 in this election. The other districts in Sacramento barely have any people in it. It might not be a bad assumption that of the 33,000 ballots left to county in the entire county, more than half would be in CD-7. Even if you are conservative, and say that only 15,000 are left in CD-7 (assuming the late voters are disproportionately poor democrats voting in CD-6), you still only need about a 52-48 Bera lead on the remaining ballots for him to win. Not easy to do, but it is certainly doable. And any recount should help Bera, IMHO.
Before the last vote dump, Bera needed about a 53-47 split to win. Now he needs about a 51.5-48.5 split to win (CA-07 has abut 55% of the Sacto County pie). So yes, if the trend holds, Bera should win by about 500 votes or something. The last vote dump was about 53.4 to 46.6 split in favor of Bera - which if it holds for the balance of the votes, would give Bera about a 500 vote victory. Those tenths of percent changes in the trend line make all the difference. Now, the last vote dumps need to move a couple of percent in the Pub direction as you note.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Senator Cris on November 11, 2014, 01:24:31 PM
News from Alaska?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Tender Branson on November 11, 2014, 01:26:09 PM
News from Alaska?
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=201724.msg4377462#msg4377462
Counting will start today for the remaining early votes and the absentee ballots that were already received.
The remaining absentees will be counted in a week, together with the questioned ballots.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 11, 2014, 01:47:51 PM
News from Alaska?
According to Alaska Public Radio (http://www.alaskapublic.org/2014/11/10/with-votes-still-coming-in-elections-division-prepares-for-count/), they just started counting in some places at 1pm Eastern. They're not starting counting in Anchorage until 5pm Eastern. It will take a while. They are counting the areas with no election night absentees reported first. And they're probably not going to get through all the absentees today.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 11, 2014, 02:11:58 PM
Looks like we lost all the most Republican leaning districts. UT-4 (R+16), WV-3 (R+14) NC-7 (R+12) and GA-12 (R+9) The most Republican seat the Dems hold is now MN-7 which is R+6. I'll skip passing a value judgement on that, but it makes sense. Why would Republican voters vote for a Democrat or vice versa?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: windjammer on November 11, 2014, 02:12:19 PM
50 000 ballots need to be counted in Alaska :O
Considering Sullivan has a 8000 votes lead, Begich would have to win 58% of these ballots: impossible.
Considering Sullivan has a 8000 votes lead, Begich would have to win 58% of these ballots: impossible.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 11, 2014, 02:42:40 PM
Crunched the number on CA-16, and the Dems hold it. Based on the splits of the remaining ballots, the past split of Fresno County of about 63-37 would have to drop to around 55-45 for the race to be even at the end. It isn't happening. Costa will win by about 650 votes, plus or minus.
CA-07 does not look too good for the Pubs either. Ose needs a swing to him of a couple of points on what remains, from what went before. Still in the hunt, but the underdog now.
So that leaves AZ-02, where somebody else claims that the final projection is for a 40 votes McSally win. So that one remains a slight tilt GOP seat.
Addendum: Oh, wait a minute! I forgot that Tacherra had a 741 vote lead! Yes, Costa is expected to generate a lead out of the remaining ballots of 651 (assuming the remaining ballots break like the ones counted to date (don't know if the last vote dump was more Dem than the election day counted votes, because I can't find the details of the last vote dump numbers), leaving him 90 votes short. So this race remains a tossup more or less. My bad.
()
CA-07 does not look too good for the Pubs either. Ose needs a swing to him of a couple of points on what remains, from what went before. Still in the hunt, but the underdog now.
So that leaves AZ-02, where somebody else claims that the final projection is for a 40 votes McSally win. So that one remains a slight tilt GOP seat.
Addendum: Oh, wait a minute! I forgot that Tacherra had a 741 vote lead! Yes, Costa is expected to generate a lead out of the remaining ballots of 651 (assuming the remaining ballots break like the ones counted to date (don't know if the last vote dump was more Dem than the election day counted votes, because I can't find the details of the last vote dump numbers), leaving him 90 votes short. So this race remains a tossup more or less. My bad.
()
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 11, 2014, 02:46:55 PM
Crunched the number on CA-16, and the Dems hold it. Based on the splits of the remaining ballots, the past split of Fresno County of about 63-37 would have to drop to around 55-45 for the race to be even at the end. It isn't happening. Costa will win by about 650 votes, plus or minus.
CA-07 does not look too good for the Pubs either. Ose needs a swing to him of a couple of points on what remains, from what went before. Still in the hunt, but the underdog now.
So that leaves AZ-02, where somebody else claims that the final projection is for a 40 votes McSally win. So that one remains a slight tilt GOP seat.
CA-07 does not look too good for the Pubs either. Ose needs a swing to him of a couple of points on what remains, from what went before. Still in the hunt, but the underdog now.
So that leaves AZ-02, where somebody else claims that the final projection is for a 40 votes McSally win. So that one remains a slight tilt GOP seat.
The 2 LA districts and one of those three. 247?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 11, 2014, 03:13:13 PM
Crunched the number on CA-16, and the Dems hold it. Based on the splits of the remaining ballots, the past split of Fresno County of about 63-37 would have to drop to around 55-45 for the race to be even at the end. It isn't happening. Costa will win by about 650 votes, plus or minus.
CA-07 does not look too good for the Pubs either. Ose needs a swing to him of a couple of points on what remains, from what went before. Still in the hunt, but the underdog now.
So that leaves AZ-02, where somebody else claims that the final projection is for a 40 votes McSally win. So that one remains a slight tilt GOP seat.
CA-07 does not look too good for the Pubs either. Ose needs a swing to him of a couple of points on what remains, from what went before. Still in the hunt, but the underdog now.
So that leaves AZ-02, where somebody else claims that the final projection is for a 40 votes McSally win. So that one remains a slight tilt GOP seat.
The 2 LA districts and one of those three. 247?
Yes, but now I see that CA-16 is in fact still a tossup (see addendum to my above post). I might be able to refine it if I had the last vote dump numbers, but on top of that the 4,000 remaining ballots in CA-16 in Fresno County is just an estimate (nobody knows), and I did not subtract out the expected under and over votes, leaving fewer votes that will affect the relative totals than the absolute number of ballots to be counted, so the say 90-110 vote margin for the Pub is too tiny really given the unknowns, to label the race anything but a total tossup at present based on what I know.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 11, 2014, 04:48:28 PM
Looks like we lost all the most Republican leaning districts. UT-4 (R+16), WV-3 (R+14) NC-7 (R+12) and GA-12 (R+9) The most Republican seat the Dems hold is now MN-7 which is R+6. I'll skip passing a value judgement on that, but it makes sense. Why would Republican voters vote for a Democrat or vice versa?
The Democrats did pick up FL-02, which is R+6.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 11, 2014, 05:20:54 PM
Barber, as the AZ-02 race extravaganza winds down to its final episode, is getting squeezed almost as badly as Ose is in reverse in CA-07. Advantage McSally.
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 11, 2014, 05:34:06 PM
Barber, as the AZ-02 race extravaganza winds down to its final episode, is getting squeezed almost as badly as Ose is in reverse in CA-07. Advantage McSally.
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According to the Arizona Elections Results Website (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AZ/53314/149060/Web01/en/summary.html), McSally is now up by 133. This is supposedly with everything in but a handful of provisional ballots in Pima County, 200-250 countywide which all won't be in the district.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 11, 2014, 05:38:52 PM
Barber, as the AZ-02 race extravaganza winds down to its final episode, is getting squeezed almost as badly as Ose is in reverse in CA-07. Advantage McSally.
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()
According to the Arizona Elections Results Website (http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AZ/53314/149060/Web01/en/summary.html), McSally is now up by 133. This is supposedly with everything in but a handful of provisional ballots in Pima County, 200-250 countywide which all won't be in the district.
Then it is over, unless a recount uncovers something. So the Pubs have very probably bagged their 247th seat, with about a 50% chance of getting to 248.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on November 11, 2014, 06:09:12 PM
Shame about AZ-02, but glad Democrats are on the upswing in CA.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Matty on November 11, 2014, 06:19:29 PM
When will they start counting the rest of the alaska ballots?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 11, 2014, 06:21:40 PM
Shame about AZ-02, but glad Democrats are on the upswing in CA.
Blame that pseudo independent redistricting commissioner McNulty, in reality a mole working for the Democrats, who fashioned a Democratic gerrymander in AZ. She was worried that the Democrats needed a bit more help in AZ-01, more so than in AZ-02, and at the very end of the redistricting process, moved some Dem strength from AZ-02 to AZ-01, maybe about half a percentage point. If she had not done that, Barber would have been re-elected. Dummymander! Yes, indeed, the irony is just delicious. :P
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on November 11, 2014, 06:32:42 PM
50 000 ballots need to be counted in Alaska :O
Considering Sullivan has a 8000 votes lead, Begich would have to win 58% of these ballots: impossible.
Considering Sullivan has a 8000 votes lead, Begich would have to win 58% of these ballots: impossible.
Yea Begich probably should've just conceded, but I suppose it doesn't really matter.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 11, 2014, 06:33:26 PM
When will they start counting the rest of the alaska ballots?
They are counting the early and absentee votes right now. Some regional elections centers have been counting since 1PM Eastern/9AM local. Anchorage has been counting since 5PM Eastern. I wouldn't expect to have any results until at least 9PM Eastern, which is 5PM Alaska time, unless some partial count leaks out earlier.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 11, 2014, 06:40:57 PM
Shame about AZ-02, but glad Democrats are on the upswing in CA.
Blame that pseudo independent independent redistricting commissioner McNulty, in reality a mole working for the Democrats, who fashioned a Democratic gerrymander in AZ. She was worried that the Democrats needed a bit more help in AZ-01, more so than in AZ-02, and at the very end of the redistricting process, moved some Dem strength from AZ-02 to AZ-01, maybe about half a percentage point. If she had not done that, Barber would have been re-elected. Dummymander! Yes, indeed, the irony is just delicious. :P
The fact that the commission didn't do what the Republicans wanted doesn't make Mathias a Democratic mole.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on November 11, 2014, 07:01:11 PM
The fact that she attempted to gerrymander in favor of the Democrats is.
:lol:
Hilarious. :b:
Quote
If she had not done that, Barber would have been re-elected. Dummymander! Yes, indeed, the irony is just delicious.
:lol:
Hilarious. :b:
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on November 11, 2014, 07:09:59 PM
Shame about AZ-02, but glad Democrats are on the upswing in CA.
Blame that pseudo independent independent redistricting commissioner McNulty, in reality a mole working for the Democrats, who fashioned a Democratic gerrymander in AZ. She was worried that the Democrats needed a bit more help in AZ-01, more so than in AZ-02, and at the very end of the redistricting process, moved some Dem strength from AZ-02 to AZ-01, maybe about half a percentage point. If she had not done that, Barber would have been re-elected. Dummymander! Yes, indeed, the irony is just delicious. :P
Interesting.... a Dummymander indeed.
Also, do you think that you could send me that vote count doc. you post? Thanks!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: mypalfish on November 11, 2014, 08:24:41 PM
Phil Kerpen @kerpen 5m5 minutes ago
#AKSen updated count:
Begich, Mark DEM 106718 45.12%
Sullivan, Dan REP 115502 48.83%
#AKSen updated count:
Begich, Mark DEM 106718 45.12%
Sullivan, Dan REP 115502 48.83%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: cinyc on November 11, 2014, 09:10:00 PM
Phil Kerpen @kerpen 5m5 minutes ago
#AKSen updated count:
Begich, Mark DEM 106718 45.12%
Sullivan, Dan REP 115502 48.83%
#AKSen updated count:
Begich, Mark DEM 106718 45.12%
Sullivan, Dan REP 115502 48.83%
Sullivan actually increased his lead from 8,149 to 8,784.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: mypalfish on November 11, 2014, 09:18:34 PM
()
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Matty on November 11, 2014, 10:54:01 PM
15,200 votes have been counted today. Begich had a net gain of only 78 votes.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 11, 2014, 11:02:10 PM
AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves ::)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on November 11, 2014, 11:07:03 PM
^ There's a running conspiracy theory at RedRacingHorses that Colleen Mathis, one of the commissioners that drew that AZ map, was in league with Democrats; she purportedly pushed the commission to draw a D-friendly map. They call the AZ map the 'Mathismander.'
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 11, 2014, 11:07:31 PM
Jeez, not content with gerrymandering half the country, Republicans are now attacking independent commissions too! Greedy.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Holmes on November 11, 2014, 11:13:47 PM
Jeez, not content with gerrymandering half the country, Republicans are now attacking independent commissions too! Greedy.
They want it all.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: JerryArkansas on November 11, 2014, 11:18:21 PM
Jeez, not content with gerrymandering half the country, Republicans are now attacking independent commissions too! Greedy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MStoUfrsCig (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MStoUfrsCig)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 12, 2014, 12:20:15 AM
Jeez, not content with gerrymandering half the country, Republicans are now attacking independent commissions too! Greedy.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: jimrtex on November 12, 2014, 12:33:26 AM
^ There's a running conspiracy theory at RedRacingHorses that Colleen Mathis, one of the commissioners that drew that AZ map, was in league with Democrats; she purportedly pushed the commission to draw a D-friendly map. They call the AZ map the 'Mathismander.'
If Arizona keeps its commission it should expand its membership and require concurrent majorities among the Republican, Democratic, and other members. It should be required to comply with open meeting laws, and the competitive districts provision should be jettisoned. It is took subject to cheating, and most adjustments to make districts more competitive violate equal protection.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 12, 2014, 12:43:06 AM
There were serious problems with the independent commission in AZ.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: jimrtex on November 12, 2014, 02:41:53 AM
Crunched the number on CA-16, and the Dems hold it. Based on the splits of the remaining ballots, the past split of Fresno County of about 63-37 would have to drop to around 55-45 for the race to be even at the end. It isn't happening. Costa will win by about 650 votes, plus or minus.
CA-07 does not look too good for the Pubs either. Ose needs a swing to him of a couple of points on what remains, from what went before. Still in the hunt, but the underdog now.
So that leaves AZ-02, where somebody else claims that the final projection is for a 40 votes McSally win. So that one remains a slight tilt GOP seat.
Addendum: Oh, wait a minute! I forgot that Tacherra had a 741 vote lead! Yes, Costa is expected to generate a lead out of the remaining ballots of 651 (assuming the remaining ballots break like the ones counted to date (don't know if the last vote dump was more Dem than the election day counted votes, because I can't find the details of the last vote dump numbers), leaving him 90 votes short. So this race remains a tossup more or less. My bad.
()
CA-07 does not look too good for the Pubs either. Ose needs a swing to him of a couple of points on what remains, from what went before. Still in the hunt, but the underdog now.
So that leaves AZ-02, where somebody else claims that the final projection is for a 40 votes McSally win. So that one remains a slight tilt GOP seat.
Addendum: Oh, wait a minute! I forgot that Tacherra had a 741 vote lead! Yes, Costa is expected to generate a lead out of the remaining ballots of 651 (assuming the remaining ballots break like the ones counted to date (don't know if the last vote dump was more Dem than the election day counted votes, because I can't find the details of the last vote dump numbers), leaving him 90 votes short. So this race remains a tossup more or less. My bad.
()
Election night was 16235:9750 or 62.48% Costa.
The update was 1884:3581 or 65.53% Costa.
There are 10,300 VBM and 10,100 provisional ballots yet to be counted.
22.7% of county votes are in CA-16. 22.5% of mail ballots returned are in CA-16, but 30.4% of ballots sent out. The return rate was much worse in CA-16, than the other districts.
Ballots Issued and Returned by District (PDF) (http://www2.co.fresno.ca.us/2850/post/2014Novavmr061_ballotsreturnedbydistrict.pdf)
I don't know whether the returned includes the final 10,000 ballots or not.
But if we assume 22.7% x (20,400 outstanding) x 31.06% (Costa plurality in first dump) = 1438 Costa margin.
Provisional votes include:
(1) First federal election, but voter doesn't have ID.
Probably not too many of these.
(2) VBM person appears in person. They either did not receive their ballot, the lost it, or they spoiled it and did not bring it with them. If the mail ballot showed up by election day, then it is counted. The reason the provisional ballots are counted last to make sure there wasn't a VBM ballot.
It is possible that these ballots skew differently than the late-arriving VBM ballots. A Republican might be more likely to recognize that their ballot might not arrive in time, and instead go to the polls. But a Democrat could be more likely to lose their ballot. And a Democrat might be more likely to show up without their unvoted mail ballot. And some of the provisional ballots won't count, since the mail ballot did arrive.
(3) Voter has a new address in the county, but did not re-register. These provisional ballots will be counted if the signature at the polls matches the signature on the registration record.
Madera County has 973 provisional ballots remaining. They don't anticipate releasing any updates prior to just before the results have to be certified (December 5). Madera County is split between two CDs.
Merced County has not updated their results from election night - the SOS website has more recent results. The number of votes in the update, somewhat matches the number of VBM mail ballots that were reported to the SOS. So I suspect they are in a situation similar to Madera.
Finishing up the VBM in Fresno County should put the result into a virtual tie.
The number of provisional between Merced and Madera (CA-16) is similar to the provisionals for Fresno (CA-16). Results so far Fresno 63.01% Costa vs. Merced+Madera 58.57%.
Merced and Madera are exceptions to the late-counted votes being more favorable to the Democratic candidate. I think we could still a result within 200 votes (50.1% to 49.9%).
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Matty on November 12, 2014, 02:51:10 AM
Out of roughly 20,000 ballots counted today, Begich only made up 238 votes.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 12, 2014, 08:20:50 AM
AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves ::)
Those GOP PVI's were inflated by McCain being on the top of the ballot in 2008.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Nichlemn on November 12, 2014, 09:09:46 AM
AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves ::)
Gerrymandering doesn't necessarily have to give you strong districts, only more opportunities than you would have otherwise had. Arizona's median district (AZ-01) was won by Romney 50-48, but he won statewide 53-44.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 12, 2014, 02:35:38 PM
The Arizona map has a slight partisan effect (why deny what's clearly true?) but is saintly compared to the average. Whinging about it thus lacks dignity.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 12, 2014, 03:23:07 PM
Funny how none of the Republicans here were whining about biased commissions when Christie essentially forced a Republican tie-breaker upon NJ's redistrictong commission by threatening to withdraw the original independent tie-breaker's research grant if he didn't resign from the commission. :P
Even if the "Mathiasmander" conspiracy-theory is somehow true, who cares? Republicans won most of the redistricting wars and should be thanking their lucky stars that independent redistrictong commissions exist because otherwise the Democrats would've obliterated them in California. You guys lost in Illinois and Arizona (and arguably CT) and got better maps that either leaned Republican or were better than you should've gotten in CA, CO, WA, WI, NE, KS, MO, MI, OH, TN, AR, TX, AL, FL, GA, SC, NC, VA, MD, WV, NJ, PA, NY, and arguably LA, MN, and IN.
TL; DR: Republicans can cry me a river regarding Arizona, whether Mathias was a Democrat or not. They won or got a better result than they would with truly non-partisan redistricting almost everywhere else along with wasted opportunties by Democrats in AR, WV, and MD.
Even if the "Mathiasmander" conspiracy-theory is somehow true, who cares? Republicans won most of the redistricting wars and should be thanking their lucky stars that independent redistrictong commissions exist because otherwise the Democrats would've obliterated them in California. You guys lost in Illinois and Arizona (and arguably CT) and got better maps that either leaned Republican or were better than you should've gotten in CA, CO, WA, WI, NE, KS, MO, MI, OH, TN, AR, TX, AL, FL, GA, SC, NC, VA, MD, WV, NJ, PA, NY, and arguably LA, MN, and IN.
TL; DR: Republicans can cry me a river regarding Arizona, whether Mathias was a Democrat or not. They won or got a better result than they would with truly non-partisan redistricting almost everywhere else along with wasted opportunties by Democrats in AR, WV, and MD.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on November 12, 2014, 04:37:12 PM
The Republican in NY-25 just conceded.
After this, Democrats should be nudging Slaughter to the door for next cycle.
After this, Democrats should be nudging Slaughter to the door for next cycle.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 12, 2014, 04:44:29 PM
The Republican in NY-25 just conceded.
After this, Democrats should be nudging Slaughter to the door for next cycle.
After this, Democrats should be nudging Slaughter to the door for next cycle.
Why? It's not like she was the only almost (or actual) freak upset. 36% turnout, GOP wave, and Cuomo's reverse coattails is a nasty combination. She'll be fine in 2016. Unless you mean due to age, in which case I kind of agree.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 12, 2014, 04:57:33 PM
AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves ::)
Those GOP PVI's were inflated by McCain being on the top of the ballot in 2008.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections#
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 12, 2014, 05:39:04 PM
AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves ::)
Those GOP PVI's were inflated by McCain being on the top of the ballot in 2008.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections#
Your'e such a sweetheart Memphis. I didn't say the seats were not competitive. What I said was that it took a Dem gerrymander to make them so, and since the Dems were greedy, and wanted two competitive CD's (the 3rd seat they called "competitive," but that was just for show - fooling no one), they jiggled stuff around and well, screwed it up a bit (it was clear to me then that they were making a mistake, but that was in the Gifford's era, so perhaps that influenced them). Thanks so much for listening.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: DrScholl on November 12, 2014, 07:43:07 PM
If you are going to be critical, at least know what you are talking about. The portions of the former AZ-8 that were moved to AZ-1 are Republican-leaning areas, areas that Kirkpatrick lost by double digits, so I highly doubt Barber would have been saved by those precincts.
Second, the commission allows for competitiveness to be taken into account and that is just how they drew the map.
Second, the commission allows for competitiveness to be taken into account and that is just how they drew the map.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on November 12, 2014, 08:07:38 PM
If you are going to be critical, at least know what you are talking about. The portions of the former AZ-8 that were moved to AZ-1 are Republican-leaning areas, areas that Kirkpatrick lost by double digits, so I highly doubt Barber would have been saved by those precincts.
Second, the commission allows for competitiveness to be taken into account and that is just how they drew the map.
Second, the commission allows for competitiveness to be taken into account and that is just how they drew the map.
Did you mean from AZ-02 to AZ-01? Maybe that is the fail of communication here? Or is the former AZZ-08 now AZ-02? If so, I will check back on the AZ redistricting thread, and get back to you. No need to stick the knife in. That is just political data, no more, no less. It is what it is.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: DrScholl on November 12, 2014, 08:45:07 PM
Territory from the former AZ-8 was moved from AZ-1 and not included in the new AZ-2.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 12, 2014, 09:23:44 PM
The Republican in NY-25 just conceded.
After this, Democrats should be nudging Slaughter to the door for next cycle.
After this, Democrats should be nudging Slaughter to the door for next cycle.
I think the reason NY-25 was so close was because Monroe County voted for Astorino, and general over performance upstate. I don't think that will drag into 2016, but they have to be careful, losing almost 3 D's in upstate NY is not good.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Sbane on November 12, 2014, 10:01:16 PM
AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves ::)
Those GOP PVI's were inflated by McCain being on the top of the ballot in 2008.
Inflated, but not inflated that much. A R+3 district is still a pure tossup, maybe just slightly Republican even after accounting for McCain's overperformance. So we have four strong Republican districts, two pure tossups, one slightly Democratic district and two Democratic districts. How is that not a fair map?
Also, Romney won both AZ-1 and AZ-2 while losing by 4 points. So it is charitable to say they are tossups. Probably closer to lean Republican.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 12, 2014, 10:45:51 PM
It says a lot about the mental state of Republican party leaders when obscene gerrymanders like Ohio are considered to be the norm and a non-partisan commission map, which nonetheless allowed Romney to win a higher percentage of districts than he did the popular vote, is considered a Democratic gerrymander because there were seats, which although Obama did not win in either of his comfortable victories, which a Democrat could plausibly win. For the GOP, anything that is not an absurd Republican octopus gerrymander must be a Democratic gerrymander. UnInksing believable.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Sbane on November 12, 2014, 10:47:25 PM
http://sacresults.e-cers.com/resultsSW.aspx?type=CON&map=MPRC
Bera takes the lead. It's basically over with only 19,000 ballots left to count in the entire county (no way to know how many from CA-7) and 9,000 of those being provisionals.
Bera takes the lead. It's basically over with only 19,000 ballots left to count in the entire county (no way to know how many from CA-7) and 9,000 of those being provisionals.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: publicunofficial on November 12, 2014, 11:12:20 PM
Assuming Costa holds on, that's 10 straight cycles Republicans have failed to knock-off a California Democratic incumbent. And in 2016, they'll be on defense in CA-10, CA-21, and CA-25 more than going on offense.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 12, 2014, 11:26:02 PM
The Arizona map has a slight partisan effect (why deny what's clearly true?) but is saintly compared to the average. Whinging about it thus lacks dignity.
I have complained about all the gerrymanders, and I would assume in proportion to the degree of their horridness, and none of which more so then right here in NC. The thing about AZ and NJ (which I was not familiar with but considering Christie that doesn't surprise me), is that they are commissions and therefore more is to be expected from them then a partisan legislature.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 12, 2014, 11:26:52 PM
House Democrats really need to send Jerry Brown some kind of present -- his popularity and successful governance was very likely what saved the close Democratic House seats in CA. At some point after he is gone, the dam will break.
The comparison between AZ and OH is a strawman argument. No one disputes that OH is completely openly gerrymandered in favor of the Republicans. The difference is that Democrats seem to feel that AZ is a completely reasonable, non-partisan map, when it's clear that portions of it were designed in 2011 to be favorable to Democrats. Being a fairer map than OH's isn't really a spectacular accomplishment.
The comparison between AZ and OH is a strawman argument. No one disputes that OH is completely openly gerrymandered in favor of the Republicans. The difference is that Democrats seem to feel that AZ is a completely reasonable, non-partisan map, when it's clear that portions of it were designed in 2011 to be favorable to Democrats. Being a fairer map than OH's isn't really a spectacular accomplishment.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: jimrtex on November 12, 2014, 11:30:28 PM
AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves ::)
Those GOP PVI's were inflated by McCain being on the top of the ballot in 2008.
Inflated, but not inflated that much. A R+3 district is still a pure tossup, maybe just slightly Republican even after accounting for McCain's overperformance. So we have four strong Republican districts, two pure tossups, one slightly Democratic district and two Democratic districts. How is that not a fair map?
Now imagine you have a district that is perhaps 53% R, compact and formed from natural communities, such as cities or counties. You decide to make it more "competitive."
How do you do this, you move Democrats in, and Republicans out. But switching areas that
are 53% Democratic and 47% Republican is tedious and takes a lot of switches, even though the political similarity suggest a greater community of interest.
So instead you grab a small 80% chunk of Democrats and expel some Republicans to another district that is already overwhelmingly Republican.
But you overlook the fact that the measurement of voters in the 80% Democratic area was in a midterm election, and perhaps against a weak candidate (think of the Ohio gubernatorial race, where a somewhat unpopular incumbent in an extremely competitive state, blew out his Democratic opponent by 30%). Or maybe the statewide candidate happened to be from the area and ran a couple of percentage points above the partisan trend in the area.
Didn't the commission systematically underpopulate the competitive legislative districts in Arizona?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 12, 2014, 11:30:33 PM
Out of roughly 20,000 ballots counted today, Begich only made up 238 votes.
Does that include the previous 15,000 or is this another whole group of 20,000.
If yes, Begich would need ot win by 68%-32% amongst those remaining votes. If not, he would need to win by 65%-35% to overtake Sullivan. I know Fox called it this morning.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: jimrtex on November 12, 2014, 11:32:12 PM
It says a lot about the mental state of Republican party leaders when obscene gerrymanders like Ohio are considered to be the norm and a non-partisan commission map, which nonetheless allowed Romney to win a higher percentage of districts than he did the popular vote, is considered a Democratic gerrymander because there were seats, which although Obama did not win in either of his comfortable victories, which a Democrat could plausibly win. For the GOP, anything that is not an absurd Republican octopus gerrymander must be a Democratic gerrymander. UnInksing believable.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: jimrtex on November 12, 2014, 11:46:18 PM
Costa takes an 88-vote lead CA-16 based on the latest dump from Fresno County.
Most of the votes outstanding are provisional ballots:
Fresno 10,700. With about 22% of votes in the county from CA-16, this would make 2430 for CA-16. If Costa takes 65%, that is a gain of +730.
Madera 973, with 64% of the vote in CA-16, this is around 619 in CA-16. If Tacherra takes 67% that is -210.
Merced 1670, all in CA-16. If Tacherra takes 56% that is -200.
So around +320 net for Costa. This assumes provisional ballots will all be counted (after all they are call 'provisional' for a reason), and have a distribution similar to the late counted ballots. If would take around a 9% swing towards Tacherra to tie it up.
Most of the votes outstanding are provisional ballots:
Fresno 10,700. With about 22% of votes in the county from CA-16, this would make 2430 for CA-16. If Costa takes 65%, that is a gain of +730.
Madera 973, with 64% of the vote in CA-16, this is around 619 in CA-16. If Tacherra takes 67% that is -210.
Merced 1670, all in CA-16. If Tacherra takes 56% that is -200.
So around +320 net for Costa. This assumes provisional ballots will all be counted (after all they are call 'provisional' for a reason), and have a distribution similar to the late counted ballots. If would take around a 9% swing towards Tacherra to tie it up.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Sbane on November 13, 2014, 12:26:49 AM
AZ-2 is an R+3 district, as is AZ-1. AZ-9 is R+1. Yeah, those secret Democrats are really drawing the lines to protect themselves ::)
Those GOP PVI's were inflated by McCain being on the top of the ballot in 2008.
Inflated, but not inflated that much. A R+3 district is still a pure tossup, maybe just slightly Republican even after accounting for McCain's overperformance. So we have four strong Republican districts, two pure tossups, one slightly Democratic district and two Democratic districts. How is that not a fair map?
Now imagine you have a district that is perhaps 53% R, compact and formed from natural communities, such as cities or counties. You decide to make it more "competitive."
How do you do this, you move Democrats in, and Republicans out. But switching areas that
are 53% Democratic and 47% Republican is tedious and takes a lot of switches, even though the political similarity suggest a greater community of interest.
So instead you grab a small 80% chunk of Democrats and expel some Republicans to another district that is already overwhelmingly Republican.
But you overlook the fact that the measurement of voters in the 80% Democratic area was in a midterm election, and perhaps against a weak candidate (think of the Ohio gubernatorial race, where a somewhat unpopular incumbent in an extremely competitive state, blew out his Democratic opponent by 30%). Or maybe the statewide candidate happened to be from the area and ran a couple of percentage points above the partisan trend in the area.
Didn't the commission systematically underpopulate the competitive legislative districts in Arizona?
None of the congressional districts save AZ-9 could be considered to be gerrymandered, and even there the justification for that is competitiveness. The republicans wanted to shove more of Tucson, including white liberal areas, into Grijalva's district so they could take over the 2nd (formerly the 8th). Now that would have been a partisan gerrymander.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: DrScholl on November 13, 2014, 01:02:02 AM
House Democrats really need to send Jerry Brown some kind of present -- his popularity and successful governance was very likely what saved the close Democratic House seats in CA. At some point after he is gone, the dam will break.
The comparison between AZ and OH is a strawman argument. No one disputes that OH is completely openly gerrymandered in favor of the Republicans. The difference is that Democrats seem to feel that AZ is a completely reasonable, non-partisan map, when it's clear that portions of it were designed in 2011 to be favorable to Democrats. Being a fairer map than OH's isn't really a spectacular accomplishment.
The comparison between AZ and OH is a strawman argument. No one disputes that OH is completely openly gerrymandered in favor of the Republicans. The difference is that Democrats seem to feel that AZ is a completely reasonable, non-partisan map, when it's clear that portions of it were designed in 2011 to be favorable to Democrats. Being a fairer map than OH's isn't really a spectacular accomplishment.
Brown had almost no effect downballot, as Democrats lost Assembly seats and a state Senate seat. There was little interest in the Governor's race, because Brown was safe, so his presence didn't drive much turnout. Even when he's gone, Democrats will still win.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: publicunofficial on November 13, 2014, 01:35:41 AM
The redistricting systems that Arizona, New Jersey, and Washington use are completely broken and just change the way gerrymandering is done.
The idea of having a non-partisan tie breaker is stupid, because non-partisans don't really exist. Democrats made a competitive map (Which could easily be a 7-2 GOP map) in AZ with the help of a "neutral" tie-breaker, and Republicans in WA and NJ created incumbent protection maps with their "Neutral" tie-breakers that only serve to preserve the GOP majority (WA-08 and NJ-03 are awfully drawn districts). I expect more Republicans to implement this system so they can claim to be fixing gerrymandering.
The idea of having a non-partisan tie breaker is stupid, because non-partisans don't really exist. Democrats made a competitive map (Which could easily be a 7-2 GOP map) in AZ with the help of a "neutral" tie-breaker, and Republicans in WA and NJ created incumbent protection maps with their "Neutral" tie-breakers that only serve to preserve the GOP majority (WA-08 and NJ-03 are awfully drawn districts). I expect more Republicans to implement this system so they can claim to be fixing gerrymandering.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 13, 2014, 02:55:47 AM
An interesting factoid I just noticed: Shaheen got 51.6% in both 2008 and 2014, a high turnout Democratic wave and a low turnout Republican wave. Go figure.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Sbane on November 13, 2014, 07:04:04 AM
House Democrats really need to send Jerry Brown some kind of present -- his popularity and successful governance was very likely what saved the close Democratic House seats in CA. At some point after he is gone, the dam will break.
The comparison between AZ and OH is a strawman argument. No one disputes that OH is completely openly gerrymandered in favor of the Republicans. The difference is that Democrats seem to feel that AZ is a completely reasonable, non-partisan map, when it's clear that portions of it were designed in 2011 to be favorable to Democrats. Being a fairer map than OH's isn't really a spectacular accomplishment.
The comparison between AZ and OH is a strawman argument. No one disputes that OH is completely openly gerrymandered in favor of the Republicans. The difference is that Democrats seem to feel that AZ is a completely reasonable, non-partisan map, when it's clear that portions of it were designed in 2011 to be favorable to Democrats. Being a fairer map than OH's isn't really a spectacular accomplishment.
Actually, most Democrats ran way behind Brown. Congressional candidates maybe won the state by 10-12 points and state legislators by even less than that. Candidates like Bera and Ruiz won because they are good candidates. Brownley and Baca, not so much.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 13, 2014, 07:27:38 AM
Well, Cresent Hardy ran way behind Sandoval, but I think we can all agree Hardy owes his victory to Sandoval's landslide. What happened in CA is a less extreme version of the same phenomenon; the closest Democratic victories took place because of Democratic landslides and Republican uncompetitiveness at the top of the ballot. Even if Brown had been unpopular, of course, he and the other statewide Democrats would still probably have won, but he'd certainly have cost House Democrats a few points, and that would have been enough to doom many of them.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 13, 2014, 09:09:55 AM
Out of roughly 20,000 ballots counted today, Begich only made up 238 votes.
Does that include the previous 15,000 or is this another whole group of 20,000.
If yes, Begich would need ot win by 68%-32% amongst those remaining votes. If not, he would need to win by 65%-35% to overtake Sullivan. I know Fox called it this morning.
AP called it for Sullivan as well.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rbt48 on November 13, 2014, 11:09:26 PM
Has anyone seen a national compilation of House races by party as yet?
I'd guess that it is something like 51-R, 48-D.
I'd guess that it is something like 51-R, 48-D.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: memphis on November 13, 2014, 11:45:07 PM
Has anyone seen a national compilation of House races by party as yet?
I'd guess that it is something like 51-R, 48-D.
I'd guess that it is something like 51-R, 48-D.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/results/house
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPC on November 14, 2014, 12:11:58 AM
So Republicans won the median seat by 15% in a year where they won nationally by 8%, so I guess 2012 was not an anomaly in establishing that Democrats would need to win nationally by 7% in order to take the House.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Tender Branson on November 14, 2014, 08:43:26 AM
Does anyone know when the last state will certify their election results, so I can start working on my 2014 turnout charts ?
Even better would be a list with certification dates from all states.
...
From what I have found out so far, CA only certifies its election results on Dec. 12 - which could be the state where it takes longest.
Slightly before Christmas, the Census Bureau will then release the Mid-2014 state population estimates and after New Year they will release the 18+ population by state. At which point I can finalize my 2014 turnout charts. I will use these new 2014 estimates and project them to November and will calculate turnout based on VAP (voting age population) and VEP (voting eligible population), by using the 2013 American Community Survey data for non-citizens older than 18.
Prof. Michael McDonald did the same (http://www.electproject.org/2014g), but he's using old data - which means my charts will be closer to reality then.
Even better would be a list with certification dates from all states.
...
From what I have found out so far, CA only certifies its election results on Dec. 12 - which could be the state where it takes longest.
Slightly before Christmas, the Census Bureau will then release the Mid-2014 state population estimates and after New Year they will release the 18+ population by state. At which point I can finalize my 2014 turnout charts. I will use these new 2014 estimates and project them to November and will calculate turnout based on VAP (voting age population) and VEP (voting eligible population), by using the 2013 American Community Survey data for non-citizens older than 18.
Prof. Michael McDonald did the same (http://www.electproject.org/2014g), but he's using old data - which means my charts will be closer to reality then.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 14, 2014, 05:17:35 PM
So, Tacherra actually gained on the last update -- a net of 11 votes. Costa now leads by 75 votes.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on November 14, 2014, 05:34:33 PM
So, Tacherra actually gained on the last update -- a net of 11 votes. Costa now leads by 75 votes.
I'm shaking in my boots.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: morgieb on November 14, 2014, 06:59:00 PM
For some reason I hope Tacherra wins.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on November 14, 2014, 09:20:37 PM
Any reason why Politico hasn't update their vote totals in the CA districts?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: jimrtex on November 14, 2014, 09:54:08 PM
So, Tacherra actually gained on the last update -- a net of 11 votes. Costa now leads by 75 votes.
Then Fresno had a 1020:395 dump for Costa. 72,1% is his best result yet. I think we are getting into the provisionals,
A curious happening in the AZ-2 race. There was also a special school board election on a separate ballot. The original ballot instructions said to vote for not more than 3, when they should have said not more than 2. So new ballots were sent out, with corrected instructions, and voters were told they could vote the new ballot.
Because of the mixup, and to make sure whether voters sent in a second ballot, the school board ballots were set aside. It turns out that a bunch of voters put both ballots in the school district ballot envelope. Fortunately, it was in a Republican leaning area (Green Valley) and it added +23 to McSally's lead.
There are about 750 provisional ballots in Pima County which were determined to be invalid. So that race will likely end up in court.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: politicallefty on November 15, 2014, 02:00:51 PM
CA-07 is now closer than CA-16, but both look pretty good for the Democrats.
Bera's lead has dropped a bit to 697 votes. Sacramento County as a whole has 2000 VBM and 11,000 provisional ballots remaining.
Costa's has opened up a 700 vote lead, with only provisionals left in his district. Heavily Republican Madera County has 973 provisionals to count and Republican-leaning (for this race) Merced County has 1512. Fresno County has 8500 to count, although many of those may not be in CA-16.
I think things look pretty good there, which will likely mean Congressional Democrats will be coming out of California +1, up to a 39-14 margin for the state. I don't think that bodes well for Republicans in 2016, when Democrats will almost assuredly be on the offensive with presidential turnout. CA-21 should be a top target for the national party and CA-10 and CA-25 should be secondary targets.
Bera's lead has dropped a bit to 697 votes. Sacramento County as a whole has 2000 VBM and 11,000 provisional ballots remaining.
Costa's has opened up a 700 vote lead, with only provisionals left in his district. Heavily Republican Madera County has 973 provisionals to count and Republican-leaning (for this race) Merced County has 1512. Fresno County has 8500 to count, although many of those may not be in CA-16.
I think things look pretty good there, which will likely mean Congressional Democrats will be coming out of California +1, up to a 39-14 margin for the state. I don't think that bodes well for Republicans in 2016, when Democrats will almost assuredly be on the offensive with presidential turnout. CA-21 should be a top target for the national party and CA-10 and CA-25 should be secondary targets.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 15, 2014, 02:04:42 PM
Pretty impressive that Democrats will end up losing zero seats in California this year. Look like the state is truly impervious to Republican waves.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on November 15, 2014, 05:13:55 PM
Pretty impressive that Democrats will end up losing zero seats in California this year. Look like the state is truly impervious to Republican waves.
Federally it is. Democrats lost a mess of State Legislature seats.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort on November 15, 2014, 06:16:41 PM
Pretty impressive that Democrats will end up losing zero seats in California this year. Look like the state is truly impervious to Republican waves.
Federally it is. Democrats lost a mess of State Legislature seats.
Three Assembly seats for a new 52-28 majority and a Senate seat for a new 27-13 majority??
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on November 15, 2014, 06:21:46 PM
Pretty impressive that Democrats will end up losing zero seats in California this year. Look like the state is truly impervious to Republican waves.
Federally it is. Democrats lost a mess of State Legislature seats.
Three Assembly seats for a new 52-28 majority and a Senate seat for a new 27-13 majority??
Not as many as I thought, but still.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on November 16, 2014, 03:33:05 PM
WV House vote by county:
()
I understand Rahall would do well there, but he's at 78% (!) in Lincoln County. Its possible, as fairly few votes were cast there (about 2K), but I'm wondering if thats a tabulation error on the SOS site.
If true, 78% would be a huge improvement even from 2012 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=7824) (he got 61% there).
()
I understand Rahall would do well there, but he's at 78% (!) in Lincoln County. Its possible, as fairly few votes were cast there (about 2K), but I'm wondering if thats a tabulation error on the SOS site.
If true, 78% would be a huge improvement even from 2012 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=7824) (he got 61% there).
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 16, 2014, 03:36:02 PM
WV House vote by county:
()
I understand Rahall would do well there, but he's at 78% (!) in Lincoln County. Its possible, as fairly few votes were cast there (about 2K), but I'm wondering if thats a tabulation error on the SOS site.
If true, 78% would be a huge improvement even from 2012 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=7824) (he got 61% there).
()
I understand Rahall would do well there, but he's at 78% (!) in Lincoln County. Its possible, as fairly few votes were cast there (about 2K), but I'm wondering if thats a tabulation error on the SOS site.
If true, 78% would be a huge improvement even from 2012 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=7824) (he got 61% there).
Pretty amazing that Mooney won the 2nd with that map.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on November 16, 2014, 03:45:27 PM
^ Yeah, I agree.
I could be wrong, but my guess is that the third parties hurt Casey more; there were several counties where the two-party share summed to less than 90% of the vote.
Casey won Kanawha 53/38 but was in the mid/low-30s in most pandhandle counties.
I could be wrong, but my guess is that the third parties hurt Casey more; there were several counties where the two-party share summed to less than 90% of the vote.
Casey won Kanawha 53/38 but was in the mid/low-30s in most pandhandle counties.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on November 16, 2014, 04:03:00 PM
I doubt it will happen, but Rahall should run again in 2016.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 16, 2014, 05:16:49 PM
^ Yeah, I agree.
I could be wrong, but my guess is that the third parties hurt Casey more; there were several counties where the two-party share summed to less than 90% of the vote.
Casey won Kanawha 53/38 but was in the mid/low-30s in most pandhandle counties.
I could be wrong, but my guess is that the third parties hurt Casey more; there were several counties where the two-party share summed to less than 90% of the vote.
Casey won Kanawha 53/38 but was in the mid/low-30s in most pandhandle counties.
Casey should have been able to win Jefferson and come much closer in Berkeley. Even Obama nearly won.Jefferson in 2012.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SPC on November 16, 2014, 08:18:30 PM
WV House vote by county:
()
I understand Rahall would do well there, but he's at 78% (!) in Lincoln County. Its possible, as fairly few votes were cast there (about 2K), but I'm wondering if thats a tabulation error on the SOS site.
If true, 78% would be a huge improvement even from 2012 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=7824) (he got 61% there).
()
I understand Rahall would do well there, but he's at 78% (!) in Lincoln County. Its possible, as fairly few votes were cast there (about 2K), but I'm wondering if thats a tabulation error on the SOS site.
If true, 78% would be a huge improvement even from 2012 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=7824) (he got 61% there).
Pretty amazing that Mooney won the 2nd with that map.
Looks like the areas close to Maryland put him over the top. :D
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: publicunofficial on November 16, 2014, 10:23:07 PM
^ Yeah, I agree.
I could be wrong, but my guess is that the third parties hurt Casey more; there were several counties where the two-party share summed to less than 90% of the vote.
Casey won Kanawha 53/38 but was in the mid/low-30s in most pandhandle counties.
I could be wrong, but my guess is that the third parties hurt Casey more; there were several counties where the two-party share summed to less than 90% of the vote.
Casey won Kanawha 53/38 but was in the mid/low-30s in most pandhandle counties.
If Casey had got a bit higher turnout from the panhandle counties, he would've won. He's another candidate who should try again in 2016.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on November 19, 2014, 02:38:14 AM
WV House vote by county:
()
I understand Rahall would do well there, but he's at 78% (!) in Lincoln County. Its possible, as fairly few votes were cast there (about 2K), but I'm wondering if thats a tabulation error on the SOS site.
If true, 78% would be a huge improvement even from 2012 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=7824) (he got 61% there).
()
I understand Rahall would do well there, but he's at 78% (!) in Lincoln County. Its possible, as fairly few votes were cast there (about 2K), but I'm wondering if thats a tabulation error on the SOS site.
If true, 78% would be a huge improvement even from 2012 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=7824) (he got 61% there).
Great work! Kind of reminds me of Bush vs Gore in 2000. Perhaps West Virginia Democrats are not as "damned" as some would have you think.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Tender Branson on November 19, 2014, 10:36:05 AM
Both Udall and Begich now trail by 2.14% ... ;)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on November 19, 2014, 08:00:35 PM
Democrats hold CA-07 and CA-16. (http://atr.rollcall.com/election-results-2014-uncalled-races-jim-costa-ami-bera/)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on November 19, 2014, 08:17:05 PM
Democrats hold CA-07 and CA-16. (http://atr.rollcall.com/election-results-2014-uncalled-races-jim-costa-ami-bera/)
Yay.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rbt48 on November 19, 2014, 10:40:37 PM
If the entire H of R reflected the delegations of CA, OR, IL, NY, MD, CT, RI, MA, and VT, Nancy Pelosi would be Speaker for Life.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 19, 2014, 10:48:06 PM
If the entire H of R reflected the delegations of CA, OR, IL, NY, MD, CT, RI, MA, and VT, Nancy Pelosi would be Speaker for Life.
If only...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rbt48 on November 19, 2014, 10:51:19 PM
Pretty impressive that Democrats will end up losing zero seats in California this year. Look like the state is truly impervious to Republican waves.
Federally it is. Democrats lost a mess of State Legislature seats.
Three Assembly seats for a new 52-28 majority and a Senate seat for a new 27-13 majority??
Not as many as I thought, but still.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: J. J. on November 20, 2014, 03:01:47 PM
Anything on AZ-4?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 20, 2014, 03:11:40 PM
Anything on AZ-4?
Gosar won with about 70%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: jaichind on November 20, 2014, 03:15:07 PM
Anything on AZ-4?
I think you mean AZ-2. It is going to a recount in Dec. We will know then.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 20, 2014, 11:54:48 PM
Interestingly, even if Dems won all the races that were relatively close (AK/CO/NC), they still would've lost the Senate, since the GOP won SD/WV/MT/AR/IA/KY/GA/KS comfortably, and will probably end up winning LA comfortably as well.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rbt48 on November 24, 2014, 09:39:37 PM
With the 2 LA-seats the GOP will have won 120 of 160 in the South, exactly 3 of 4.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 26, 2014, 03:23:40 PM
Some results are official now -- Alabama:
Jeff Sessions: 795,606 (97.3%)
Arkansas:
Tom Cotton: 478,819 (56.5%)
Mark Pryor: 334,174 (39.4%)
Delaware:
Chris Coons: 130,655 (55.8%)
Kevin Wade: 98,823 (42.2%)
Georgia:
David Perdue: 1,358,088 (52.9%)
Michelle Nunn: 1,160,811 (45.2%)
Hawaii:
Brian Schatz: 246,827 (69.8%)
Cam Cavasso: 98,006 (27.7%)
Idaho:
Jim Risch: 285,596 (65.3%)
Nels Mitchell: 151,574 (34.7%)
Kentucky:
Mitch McConnell: 806,787 (56.2%)
Alison Grimes: 584,698 (40.7%)
Oklahoma:
James Inhofe: 558,166 (68.0%)
Matt Silverstein: 234,307 (28.5%)
Oklahoma (S):
James Lankford: 557,002 (67.9%)
Connie Johnson: 237,923 (29.0%)
South Carolina:
Lindsey Graham: 672,941 (54.3%)
Brad Hutto: 480,933 (38.8%)
South Carolina (S):
Tim Scott: 757,215 (61.1%)
Joyce Dickerson: 459,583 (37.1%)
Wyoming:
Mike Enzi: 121,554 (72.2%)
Charlie Hardy: 29,377 (17.4%)
Curt Gottshall: 13,311 (7.9%)
Jeff Sessions: 795,606 (97.3%)
Arkansas:
Tom Cotton: 478,819 (56.5%)
Mark Pryor: 334,174 (39.4%)
Delaware:
Chris Coons: 130,655 (55.8%)
Kevin Wade: 98,823 (42.2%)
Georgia:
David Perdue: 1,358,088 (52.9%)
Michelle Nunn: 1,160,811 (45.2%)
Hawaii:
Brian Schatz: 246,827 (69.8%)
Cam Cavasso: 98,006 (27.7%)
Idaho:
Jim Risch: 285,596 (65.3%)
Nels Mitchell: 151,574 (34.7%)
Kentucky:
Mitch McConnell: 806,787 (56.2%)
Alison Grimes: 584,698 (40.7%)
Oklahoma:
James Inhofe: 558,166 (68.0%)
Matt Silverstein: 234,307 (28.5%)
Oklahoma (S):
James Lankford: 557,002 (67.9%)
Connie Johnson: 237,923 (29.0%)
South Carolina:
Lindsey Graham: 672,941 (54.3%)
Brad Hutto: 480,933 (38.8%)
South Carolina (S):
Tim Scott: 757,215 (61.1%)
Joyce Dickerson: 459,583 (37.1%)
Wyoming:
Mike Enzi: 121,554 (72.2%)
Charlie Hardy: 29,377 (17.4%)
Curt Gottshall: 13,311 (7.9%)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on November 27, 2014, 05:11:20 AM
Despite incumbency, a famous last name, and tons of resources, Pryor only ended up doing 0.4% better than Amanda Curtis. lol
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: World politics is up Schmitt creek on November 27, 2014, 02:50:17 PM
The fact that Inhofe did better than Lankford, even if only incrementally, is a disgrace.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on November 27, 2014, 02:51:19 PM
The fact that Inhofe did better than Lankford, even if only incrementally, is a disgrace.
They're both fundamentally awful.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Ljube on November 27, 2014, 02:51:55 PM
The fact that Inhofe did better than Lankford, even if only incrementally, is a disgrace.
Why? Inhofe is a great statesman.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on November 27, 2014, 02:52:26 PM
The fact that Inhofe did better than Lankford, even if only incrementally, is a disgrace.
Why? Inhofe is a great statesman.
I hope you're trolling.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on November 27, 2014, 03:39:33 PM
It makes some sense though -- Lankford's opponent was a state legislator, while Inhofe's was just a Some Dude.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 27, 2014, 03:39:35 PM
With the 2 LA-seats the GOP will have won 120 of 160 in the South, exactly 3 of 4.
And just 7 of the 40 are majority Caucasian. (FL-02, FL-18, FL-21, FL-22, KY-03, MO-05, TN-05) Out of the others, only GA-13 is plurality white.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on November 27, 2014, 06:31:23 PM
The fact that Inhofe did better than Lankford, even if only incrementally, is a disgrace.
Why? Inhofe is a great statesman.
Coburn was a thousand times better and while I am glad that it was not Tom Cole that got his seat, I still think they could have done much better then Lankford. If Lankford had been replacing Inhofe, the relative nature of the question would make Lankford far more appealing.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: publicunofficial on November 28, 2014, 12:18:15 AM
It makes some sense though -- Lankford's opponent was a state legislator, while Inhofe's was just a Some Dude.
Also incumbents tend to better than new faces.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on November 28, 2014, 01:07:50 PM
The fact that Inhofe did better than Lankford, even if only incrementally, is a disgrace.
Why? Inhofe is a great statesman.
Mods please ban.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: nclib on November 28, 2014, 03:38:08 PM
With the 2 LA-seats the GOP will have won 120 of 160 in the South, exactly 3 of 4.
And just 7 of the 40 are majority Caucasian. (FL-02, FL-18, FL-21, FL-22, KY-03, MO-05, TN-05) Out of the others, only GA-13 is plurality white.
Like in the other thread, everyone is forgetting mine (NC-4). Even if we don't have a white majority, we're definitely at least plurality white.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on November 28, 2014, 04:31:53 PM
With the 2 LA-seats the GOP will have won 120 of 160 in the South, exactly 3 of 4.
And just 7 of the 40 are majority Caucasian. (FL-02, FL-18, FL-21, FL-22, KY-03, MO-05, TN-05) Out of the others, only GA-13 is plurality white.
Like in the other thread, everyone is forgetting mine (NC-4). Even if we don't have a white majority, we're definitely at least plurality white.
I was surprised when I found out NC-04 is not majority white- I had assumed it to be so. But yes, it is plurality white and I did forget to mention that, not sure how I missed that.
(It is majority "white" based on the broad census category, but excluding Hispanics it is not-the same case as with many Texas and Florida districts.)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Beezer on December 01, 2014, 04:27:14 AM
So when are going to get the final results (aside from the LA runoffs)? What appears to be the most likely GOP # now...247?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: smoltchanov on December 01, 2014, 04:32:08 AM
So when are going to get the final results (aside from the LA runoffs)? What appears to be the most likely GOP # now...247?
Exactly. Almost universally recognized that it's 244-188 now. With Barber probably losing and 2 almost surely guaranteed Republican seats in Louisiana - 247-188
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Tender Branson on December 01, 2014, 04:32:43 AM
So when are going to get the final results (aside from the LA runoffs)? What appears to be the most likely GOP # now...247?
247-188 yeah (244-188 now).
AZ-02 and the two LA seats are all R.
In AZ-02, Barber is down by about 160 votes and the results will be certified today. There's a recount, but unlikely that this will change anything.
The last state to certify their results is probably CA on Dec. 12
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rbt48 on December 02, 2014, 11:09:12 PM
When is the AZ-2 recount set to occur?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rbt48 on December 02, 2014, 11:11:45 PM
Why do you think that Scott out-performed Graham?
Lindsey Graham: 672,941 (54.3%)
Brad Hutto: 480,933 (38.8%)
Tim Scott: 757,215 (61.1%)
Joyce Dickerson: 459,583 (37.1%)
I'm offering these choices as the two most likely scenarios in my mind:
(1) Conservative Republicans withholding votes for Graham or
(2) more blacks voting for Scott?
Lindsey Graham: 672,941 (54.3%)
Brad Hutto: 480,933 (38.8%)
Tim Scott: 757,215 (61.1%)
Joyce Dickerson: 459,583 (37.1%)
I'm offering these choices as the two most likely scenarios in my mind:
(1) Conservative Republicans withholding votes for Graham or
(2) more blacks voting for Scott?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 02, 2014, 11:36:16 PM
Why do you think that Scott out-performed Graham?
Lindsey Graham: 672,941 (54.3%)
Brad Hutto: 480,933 (38.8%)
Tim Scott: 757,215 (61.1%)
Joyce Dickerson: 459,583 (37.1%)
I'm offering these choices as the two most likely scenarios in my mind:
(1) Conservative Republicans withholding votes for Graham or
(2) more blacks voting for Scott?
Lindsey Graham: 672,941 (54.3%)
Brad Hutto: 480,933 (38.8%)
Tim Scott: 757,215 (61.1%)
Joyce Dickerson: 459,583 (37.1%)
I'm offering these choices as the two most likely scenarios in my mind:
(1) Conservative Republicans withholding votes for Graham or
(2) more blacks voting for Scott?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on December 02, 2014, 11:44:09 PM
Conservatives voting for Ravenel.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: morgieb on December 03, 2014, 07:36:43 AM
Scott's a lot less offensive than Graham, plus I think Hutto was a stronger candidate than Dickerson.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 03, 2014, 07:44:30 AM
Why do you think that Scott out-performed Graham?
Lindsey Graham: 672,941 (54.3%)
Brad Hutto: 480,933 (38.8%)
Tim Scott: 757,215 (61.1%)
Joyce Dickerson: 459,583 (37.1%)
I'm offering these choices as the two most likely scenarios in my mind:
(1) Conservative Republicans withholding votes for Graham or
(2) more blacks voting for Scott?
Lindsey Graham: 672,941 (54.3%)
Brad Hutto: 480,933 (38.8%)
Tim Scott: 757,215 (61.1%)
Joyce Dickerson: 459,583 (37.1%)
I'm offering these choices as the two most likely scenarios in my mind:
(1) Conservative Republicans withholding votes for Graham or
(2) more blacks voting for Scott?
Some backlash against Graham by independents. Graham won I's 54-35, Scott won them 67-31. Its definitely not #2
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on December 03, 2014, 04:53:59 PM
Graham has gone over the deep end on foreign policy and thus could explain the indies.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rbt48 on December 04, 2014, 10:36:54 PM
Well, good points regarding the Scott vs Graham performance. I'm wondering if anyone has some insight (perhaps from exit polls or from predominantly black or white precincts: did Scott tend to do better than Graham? How much stronger (or perhaps weaker) was Scott than white with black voters.
My hunch is that except in perhaps more unusual situations, black Republicans tend not to do much better among blacks than do white Republicans when facing a white Democrat. I'm pretty sure that black republicans don't fare any better against black Democrats among black voters than do white Republicans in a similar election.
Your thoughts or even better, evidence?
My hunch is that except in perhaps more unusual situations, black Republicans tend not to do much better among blacks than do white Republicans when facing a white Democrat. I'm pretty sure that black republicans don't fare any better against black Democrats among black voters than do white Republicans in a similar election.
Your thoughts or even better, evidence?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 04, 2014, 10:47:36 PM
^ What I noticed when I broke the SC races down by CD (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=202358.msg4377358#msg4377358) was how consistently Scott overperformed Graham. I know Graham had a conservative Indie in his race, but still. The exception was CD6, where Scott only did a few points better, suggesting Scott didn't have any special crossover appeal with blacks.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on December 04, 2014, 10:58:25 PM
^per the exit poll:
Among black voters
Graham: 6% (4% with women, 10% with men)
Hutto: 89% (92% with women, 83% with men)
Scott: 10% (7% with women, 16% with men)
Dickerson: 88% (91% with women, 83% with men)
Among white voters
Graham: 74% (73% with women, 74% with men)
Hutto: 19% (22% with women, 16% with men)
Scott: 82% (78% with women, 85% with men)
Dickerson: 18% (20% with women, 15% with men)
These racial crosstabs make sense in the context of how Dickerson and Hutto performed statewide. While Hutto lost by 15.48% and Dickerson by 24.04%, both won a similar number of raw votes. Hutto only won 21,350 more raw votes statewide than Dickerson. Hutto garnered 38.78% of the vote, while Dickerson won 37.09%. According to the exit poll, Scott marginally improved upon Graham's performance with blacks (10% to 6%) it was Graham's underperformance with whites that accounts for his smaller margin. Almost all these dropoff whites voted for third parties while Hutto only outperformed Dickerson by the barest of margins among whites. Hutto's larger raw vote can be explained almost entirely by a consolidation of African American support.
Among black voters
Graham: 6% (4% with women, 10% with men)
Hutto: 89% (92% with women, 83% with men)
Scott: 10% (7% with women, 16% with men)
Dickerson: 88% (91% with women, 83% with men)
Among white voters
Graham: 74% (73% with women, 74% with men)
Hutto: 19% (22% with women, 16% with men)
Scott: 82% (78% with women, 85% with men)
Dickerson: 18% (20% with women, 15% with men)
These racial crosstabs make sense in the context of how Dickerson and Hutto performed statewide. While Hutto lost by 15.48% and Dickerson by 24.04%, both won a similar number of raw votes. Hutto only won 21,350 more raw votes statewide than Dickerson. Hutto garnered 38.78% of the vote, while Dickerson won 37.09%. According to the exit poll, Scott marginally improved upon Graham's performance with blacks (10% to 6%) it was Graham's underperformance with whites that accounts for his smaller margin. Almost all these dropoff whites voted for third parties while Hutto only outperformed Dickerson by the barest of margins among whites. Hutto's larger raw vote can be explained almost entirely by a consolidation of African American support.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on December 05, 2014, 12:19:06 AM
^per the exit poll:
Among black voters
Graham: 6% (4% with women, 10% with men)
Hutto: 89% (92% with women, 83% with men)
Scott: 10% (7% with women, 16% with men)
Dickerson: 88% (91% with women, 83% with men)
Among white voters
Graham: 74% (73% with women, 74% with men)
Hutto: 19% (22% with women, 16% with men)
Scott: 82% (78% with women, 85% with men)
Dickerson: 18% (20% with women, 15% with men)
These racial crosstabs make sense in the context of how Dickerson and Hutto performed statewide. While Hutto lost by 15.48% and Dickerson by 24.04%, both won a similar number of raw votes. Hutto only won 21,350 more raw votes statewide than Dickerson. Hutto garnered 38.78% of the vote, while Dickerson won 37.09%. According to the exit poll, Scott marginally improved upon Graham's performance with blacks (10% to 6%) it was Graham's underperformance with whites that accounts for his smaller margin. Almost all these dropoff whites voted for third parties while Hutto only outperformed Dickerson by the barest of margins among whites. Hutto's larger raw vote can be explained almost entirely by a consolidation of African American support.
Among black voters
Graham: 6% (4% with women, 10% with men)
Hutto: 89% (92% with women, 83% with men)
Scott: 10% (7% with women, 16% with men)
Dickerson: 88% (91% with women, 83% with men)
Among white voters
Graham: 74% (73% with women, 74% with men)
Hutto: 19% (22% with women, 16% with men)
Scott: 82% (78% with women, 85% with men)
Dickerson: 18% (20% with women, 15% with men)
These racial crosstabs make sense in the context of how Dickerson and Hutto performed statewide. While Hutto lost by 15.48% and Dickerson by 24.04%, both won a similar number of raw votes. Hutto only won 21,350 more raw votes statewide than Dickerson. Hutto garnered 38.78% of the vote, while Dickerson won 37.09%. According to the exit poll, Scott marginally improved upon Graham's performance with blacks (10% to 6%) it was Graham's underperformance with whites that accounts for his smaller margin. Almost all these dropoff whites voted for third parties while Hutto only outperformed Dickerson by the barest of margins among whites. Hutto's larger raw vote can be explained almost entirely by a consolidation of African American support.
are you suggesting there were a bunch of blacks who voted for Hutto but not Dickerson? I don't see any evidence for that, and it would be surprising if true.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on December 05, 2014, 12:50:45 AM
^per the exit poll:
Among black voters
Graham: 6% (4% with women, 10% with men)
Hutto: 89% (92% with women, 83% with men)
Scott: 10% (7% with women, 16% with men)
Dickerson: 88% (91% with women, 83% with men)
Among white voters
Graham: 74% (73% with women, 74% with men)
Hutto: 19% (22% with women, 16% with men)
Scott: 82% (78% with women, 85% with men)
Dickerson: 18% (20% with women, 15% with men)
These racial crosstabs make sense in the context of how Dickerson and Hutto performed statewide. While Hutto lost by 15.48% and Dickerson by 24.04%, both won a similar number of raw votes. Hutto only won 21,350 more raw votes statewide than Dickerson. Hutto garnered 38.78% of the vote, while Dickerson won 37.09%. According to the exit poll, Scott marginally improved upon Graham's performance with blacks (10% to 6%) it was Graham's underperformance with whites that accounts for his smaller margin. Almost all these dropoff whites voted for third parties while Hutto only outperformed Dickerson by the barest of margins among whites. Hutto's larger raw vote can be explained almost entirely by a consolidation of African American support.
Among black voters
Graham: 6% (4% with women, 10% with men)
Hutto: 89% (92% with women, 83% with men)
Scott: 10% (7% with women, 16% with men)
Dickerson: 88% (91% with women, 83% with men)
Among white voters
Graham: 74% (73% with women, 74% with men)
Hutto: 19% (22% with women, 16% with men)
Scott: 82% (78% with women, 85% with men)
Dickerson: 18% (20% with women, 15% with men)
These racial crosstabs make sense in the context of how Dickerson and Hutto performed statewide. While Hutto lost by 15.48% and Dickerson by 24.04%, both won a similar number of raw votes. Hutto only won 21,350 more raw votes statewide than Dickerson. Hutto garnered 38.78% of the vote, while Dickerson won 37.09%. According to the exit poll, Scott marginally improved upon Graham's performance with blacks (10% to 6%) it was Graham's underperformance with whites that accounts for his smaller margin. Almost all these dropoff whites voted for third parties while Hutto only outperformed Dickerson by the barest of margins among whites. Hutto's larger raw vote can be explained almost entirely by a consolidation of African American support.
are you suggesting there were a bunch of blacks who voted for Hutto but not Dickerson? I don't see any evidence for that, and it would be surprising if true.
I don't know if you can say 4% of blacks who voted in South Carolina in 2014 is 'a bunch', but he's certainly saying that such people do exist. (Possibly more than 4%, actually, but cancelled out by a smaller population of Graham/Dickerson voters).
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on December 05, 2014, 01:18:12 AM
^As Vosem says, if the exit poll is to be believed 4% of blacks voted for Hutto while also voting for Scott. According to the exit poll, blacks made up 26% of the electorate, or about 322,420 votes out of 1,240,075 cast. Those 4% Hutto/Scott blacks would be about 12,897 votes that Hutto nets over Dickerson statewide which would get him from 459,583 to 472,480. Hutto wins 1% more of the white vote than Dickerson, winning him an additional 8,557 votes to get to 481,037. This is only 104 votes off from his actual total of 480,933.
So yes, that explains the difference in raw vote between Dickerson and Hutto. The difference in margin, on the other hand, is explained by the presence of third parties that almost uniformly make up the difference between Graham and Scott's raw numbers. This can be seen pretty much across the entire state with the difference in margin expanding the whiter (and more Republican) the county is. I haven't run an r-value correlation but I would expect it to be fairly significant. This makes sense given Ravenel's status as a former Republican and the stronger showing of the Libertarian candidate in the Hutto-Graham race.
So yes, that explains the difference in raw vote between Dickerson and Hutto. The difference in margin, on the other hand, is explained by the presence of third parties that almost uniformly make up the difference between Graham and Scott's raw numbers. This can be seen pretty much across the entire state with the difference in margin expanding the whiter (and more Republican) the county is. I haven't run an r-value correlation but I would expect it to be fairly significant. This makes sense given Ravenel's status as a former Republican and the stronger showing of the Libertarian candidate in the Hutto-Graham race.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Tender Branson on December 05, 2014, 02:55:34 AM
States that have not yet published their official/certified results:
CA
KS
MT
NE
NM
NY
OH
TN
CA
KS
MT
NE
NM
NY
OH
TN
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort on December 05, 2014, 02:29:44 PM
States that have not yet published their official/certified results:
KS
KS
KOBACHHHH!!!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 05, 2014, 05:00:42 PM
States that have not yet published their official/certified results:
KS
KS
KOBACHHHH!!!
I still can't believe that partisan piece of junk only ran 0.3% behind Romney's 2012 number.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on December 05, 2014, 06:20:17 PM
^As Vosem says, if the exit poll is to be believed 4% of blacks voted for Hutto while also voting for Scott. According to the exit poll, blacks made up 26% of the electorate, or about 322,420 votes out of 1,240,075 cast. Those 4% Hutto/Scott blacks would be about 12,897 votes that Hutto nets over Dickerson statewide which would get him from 459,583 to 472,480. Hutto wins 1% more of the white vote than Dickerson, winning him an additional 8,557 votes to get to 481,037. This is only 104 votes off from his actual total of 480,933.
So yes, that explains the difference in raw vote between Dickerson and Hutto. The difference in margin, on the other hand, is explained by the presence of third parties that almost uniformly make up the difference between Graham and Scott's raw numbers. This can be seen pretty much across the entire state with the difference in margin expanding the whiter (and more Republican) the county is. I haven't run an r-value correlation but I would expect it to be fairly significant. This makes sense given Ravenel's status as a former Republican and the stronger showing of the Libertarian candidate in the Hutto-Graham race.
So yes, that explains the difference in raw vote between Dickerson and Hutto. The difference in margin, on the other hand, is explained by the presence of third parties that almost uniformly make up the difference between Graham and Scott's raw numbers. This can be seen pretty much across the entire state with the difference in margin expanding the whiter (and more Republican) the county is. I haven't run an r-value correlation but I would expect it to be fairly significant. This makes sense given Ravenel's status as a former Republican and the stronger showing of the Libertarian candidate in the Hutto-Graham race.
I don't know how you can get that from the exit poll that 4% of blacks voted for Scott and Hutto. The exit poll says 89% voted for Hutto as opposed to 88% for Dickerson. That is a 1% difference between the Democratic candidates. 2% of blacks according to the exit poll voted for Ravenel. So the number of blacks who voted for Scott for an independent candidate would be larger than the number who voted Scott and Hutto. But then, all these numbers are within a small portion of the subsample MOE. There wasn't a large difference in the total vote for Senate between the regular and special elections, so why treat the difference in raw vote and in margin as two separate issues?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rbt48 on December 06, 2014, 01:29:14 AM
It looks like AP will be posting results for the Louisiana runoff elections later today:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/LA_Page_1206.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/LA_Page_1206.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)
I think, from what I saw and inferred from the AP website, that they made election night (Nov 4) returns only available for those who paid for the (perhaps other news organizations). It will be nice to have their returns available for these races in Louisiana!
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/LA_Page_1206.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/LA_Page_1206.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS)
I think, from what I saw and inferred from the AP website, that they made election night (Nov 4) returns only available for those who paid for the (perhaps other news organizations). It will be nice to have their returns available for these races in Louisiana!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 06, 2014, 01:32:41 AM
^ We'll also be covering it at AoS. (http://dd.aoshq.com/) We mad several first calls on election night last month :)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 06, 2014, 01:47:32 AM
^ We'll also be covering it at AoS. (http://dd.aoshq.com/) We made several first calls on election night last month :)
An Excellent rule of thumb with VA is that a republican needs both Loudoun and Prince William to win. Until very late in the night, Gillespie had both of these counties in his column (he eventually lost hold on PW) If one/both of them goes for the democrat, the democrat wins. This has held up during all VA pres./senate/governor races this century:
2000/2002/2004 - R wins both Loudoun and PW, R wins.
2006 - Allen wins PW, Webb wins Loudoun, Webb wins.
2001/2005/2008/2012/2013 - Dem wins both Loudoun and PW, Dem wins.
2009 - McDonnell wins both, McDonnell wins
2014 - Gillespie wins Loudoun, Warner wins PW, Warner wins.
------------------------------------------
The list of LA races is as follows:
District 1 Public Service Commissioner: Skrmetta (R) vs. Wright (R)
U.S. House District 5: Mayo (D) vs. Abraham (R)
U.S. House District 6: Edwards (D) vs. Graves (R)
U.S. Senate: Landrieu (D) vs. Cassidy (R)
Polls close at 9 PM EST.
No sign of a parish map from Politico yet, hopefully one will be posted at some point tomorrow. Also please note that Louisiana's count is really slow for the first hour or so.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 06, 2014, 01:59:02 AM
^ For election night, they assigned us each a state, and I was one of the guys on the VA team ;D
I was expecting it to be boring haha.
I was expecting it to be boring haha.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Tender Branson on December 06, 2014, 08:45:34 AM
States that have not yet published their official/certified results:
CA
KS
MT
NE
NM
NY
OH
TN
KS
MT
NE
NM
NY
OH
TN
CA now has semi-official results (the final result is out on Dec. 12)
KS now has final results.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Tender Branson on December 06, 2014, 11:09:23 AM
On the AZ-02 recount:
http://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/2014/12/05/barber-mcsally-recount/19948891
Quote
Outgoing Secretary of State Ken Bennett discusses the close congressional race:
By Dec. 16, Pima and Cochise Counties will provide the confidential results of the recount to our office, and we will give them to Judge Cooper on Dec. 17. The court will then certify the results and announce the winner.
By Dec. 16, Pima and Cochise Counties will provide the confidential results of the recount to our office, and we will give them to Judge Cooper on Dec. 17. The court will then certify the results and announce the winner.
http://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/2014/12/05/barber-mcsally-recount/19948891
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Tender Branson on December 06, 2014, 02:04:27 PM
If there's a LA exit poll, it should probably be here:
http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/LA/senate-runoff
http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/LA/senate-runoff
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 06, 2014, 03:49:00 PM
LA sen. Runoff results by parish: http://www.politico.com/2014-election/results/map/senate/louisiana/runoff/december-06/#.VINrmMvnbqA
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: nclib on December 06, 2014, 04:29:50 PM
Why do you think that Scott out-performed Graham?
Lindsey Graham: 672,941 (54.3%)
Brad Hutto: 480,933 (38.8%)
Tim Scott: 757,215 (61.1%)
Joyce Dickerson: 459,583 (37.1%)
I'm offering these choices as the two most likely scenarios in my mind:
(1) Conservative Republicans withholding votes for Graham or
(2) more blacks voting for Scott?
Lindsey Graham: 672,941 (54.3%)
Brad Hutto: 480,933 (38.8%)
Tim Scott: 757,215 (61.1%)
Joyce Dickerson: 459,583 (37.1%)
I'm offering these choices as the two most likely scenarios in my mind:
(1) Conservative Republicans withholding votes for Graham or
(2) more blacks voting for Scott?
(1) can't be true since there were more raw votes in the Graham race in the Scott race. (2) could be true, but the exit polls show Scott outperforming Graham with whites.
I would have thought that Graham + Ravenel would run ahead of Scott, since Graham is a longer incumbent, and on balance is more moderate than Scott (though Graham has had some right-wing rhetoric), and that some racist whites wouldn't vote for Scott.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 06, 2014, 08:59:17 PM
Polls closing in Louisiana in 1 minute.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on December 06, 2014, 09:04:49 PM
AoSHQ called it. RIP.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 06, 2014, 09:05:53 PM
^ And LA-06 for Graves.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on December 06, 2014, 09:06:00 PM
First precinct in Ascension Parish. She's going to get Blanche'd, maybe to the point where we're going to call it getting Landreiu'd .
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 06, 2014, 09:06:32 PM
Early vote has it 58.2-41.8 Cassidy, 77-23 Abraham, 73-27 Graves.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 06, 2014, 09:07:06 PM
First precinct in Ascension Parish. She's going to get Blanche'd, maybe to the point where we're going to call it getting Landreiu'd .
Ascension Parish is heavily Republican.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Maxwell on December 06, 2014, 09:07:32 PM
Early vote has it 58.2-41.8 Cassidy, 77-23 Abraham, 73-27 Graves.
JESUS CHRIST.
Also, she went a conservative radio show earlier and said "I did not vote for Obama". That is hilarious.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 06, 2014, 09:08:31 PM
Early vote has it 58.2-41.8 Cassidy, 77-23 Abraham, 73-27 Graves.
JESUS CHRIST.
Its gone down to 67 now
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 06, 2014, 09:09:02 PM
AOSHQDD calls Senate for Cassidy.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on December 06, 2014, 09:10:35 PM
First precinct in Ascension Parish. She's going to get Blanche'd, maybe to the point where we're going to call it getting Landreiu'd .
Ascension Parish is heavily Republican.
You're right, I confused it with Assumption.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 06, 2014, 09:12:24 PM
Cassidy is leading EBR 54-46 in the early vote. This is going to be a bad night for Landrieu.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on December 06, 2014, 09:19:51 PM
Called for Abraham (no surprise).
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 06, 2014, 09:21:52 PM
Some of these early vote numbers look worse (for Landrieu) than Presidential results.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on December 06, 2014, 09:22:47 PM
Called for Abraham (no surprise).
Nothing's really shocking here. The only question is how big is the Cassidy landslide win.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on December 06, 2014, 09:25:48 PM
Cassidy leads 64.7-35.3 with 0.2% in. Looks like my prediction will be accurate.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 06, 2014, 09:27:21 PM
AP calls it :(
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 06, 2014, 09:27:54 PM
AP calls it for Cassidy. Trende said Landrieu is running behind Melancon in many parishes... top 5 loss potentially.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 06, 2014, 09:28:44 PM
Cassidy leads 64.7-35.3 with 0.2% in. Looks like my prediction will be accurate.
Nothing out of Orleans yet
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Pandaguineapig on December 06, 2014, 09:36:22 PM
Wonder when Landrieu will concede
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Suburbia on December 06, 2014, 09:39:21 PM
Poor Mary.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 06, 2014, 09:43:23 PM
Landrieu will speak in 5-10 min, apparently.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on December 06, 2014, 09:45:17 PM
Poor Mary, she doesn't deserve this treatment. :(
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Free Bird on December 06, 2014, 09:45:41 PM
Called by FOX
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 06, 2014, 09:46:36 PM
Cassidy down to 58 with Orleans early vote in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 06, 2014, 09:47:28 PM
Sweet! Orleans is starting to come in and Landrieu is over 40% statewide!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Pandaguineapig on December 06, 2014, 09:48:43 PM
Poor Mary, she doesn't deserve this treatment. :(
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on December 06, 2014, 09:50:01 PM
Wonder when Landrieu will concede
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 06, 2014, 09:50:22 PM
Cassidy 56-44 now, 14% in statewide. Still no orleans.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 06, 2014, 09:51:22 PM
Its mostly early vote, ATM, bur Caddo and EBR look pretty bad :P Landrieu losing both by about 8.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: solarstorm on December 06, 2014, 09:51:31 PM
Wow! The results have been narrowing. Now there's only a difference of 12% between Mary and Bill.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 06, 2014, 09:52:04 PM
Nevermind, she just pulled ahead in Caddo.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 06, 2014, 09:52:36 PM
Now down to 11% at 20% in. Only early vote from Orleans.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Türkisblau on December 06, 2014, 09:52:50 PM
Anyone have a link to her speech?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on December 06, 2014, 09:57:43 PM
Caldwell is at 100% reporting and Cassidy wins 75-25. Landrieu is down 3 from November 4. So, if trends hold, 38% statewide.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 06, 2014, 09:58:37 PM
Back to 58-42 at 32% in. Say goodbye, Miles!
Just as I predicted,Mayo running ahead of Edwards.
Just as I predicted,Mayo running ahead of Edwards.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 06, 2014, 10:00:52 PM
Anyone have a link to her speech?
It should be here. (http://www.wwltv.com/videos/news/local/2014/09/09/15371877/)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 06, 2014, 10:00:55 PM
Abraham at 62 while Graves at 66. Pretty close to Romney/McCain results.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: solarstorm on December 06, 2014, 10:01:44 PM
What is happening in East Baton Rouge? Even Obama won it twice. And she is trailing by almost 20%. :o
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 06, 2014, 10:02:13 PM
What is happening in East Baton Rouge? Even Obama won it twice. And she is trailing by almost 20%. :o
Probably Republican parts coming in first.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Türkisblau on December 06, 2014, 10:03:12 PM
Anyone have a link to her speech?
It should be here. (http://www.wwltv.com/videos/news/local/2014/09/09/15371877/)
Thanks. This sucks :(
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Flake on December 06, 2014, 10:04:12 PM
Early vote has it 58.2-41.8 Cassidy, 77-23 Abraham, 73-27 Graves.
JESUS CHRIST.
Also, she went a conservative radio show earlier and said "I did not vote for Obama". That is hilarious.
Are you serious? RIP Mary Landrieu, HP.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 06, 2014, 10:12:35 PM
She's conceded.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: solarstorm on December 06, 2014, 10:13:48 PM
She will lose, but at least she won't be pryored, lanched or santorumed.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 06, 2014, 10:13:57 PM
Orleans coming in, Cassidy back down to 58
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 06, 2014, 10:14:41 PM
Quote
James Hohmann @jameshohmann
OMG: Taylor Swift's "Shake it off" started blasting in the ballroom as soon as Mary Landrieu finished her concession speech.
OMG: Taylor Swift's "Shake it off" started blasting in the ballroom as soon as Mary Landrieu finished her concession speech.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 06, 2014, 10:19:46 PM
LA-05 is almost done reporting. Looks like Abraham will finish with around 64%.
Cassidy carrying Jefferson Parish with 57% so far. Landrieu has won St. Bernard Parish, must have something to do with Katrina.
Cassidy carrying Jefferson Parish with 57% so far. Landrieu has won St. Bernard Parish, must have something to do with Katrina.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 06, 2014, 10:21:29 PM
Cassidy speech coming soon. (http://www.wafb.com/story/27565857/watch-live-sen-elect-bill-cassidy-victory-speech?clienttype=generic&mobilecgbypass)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: jaichind on December 06, 2014, 10:21:33 PM
I think it will end up being something like 57-43.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on December 06, 2014, 10:22:31 PM
Caldwell is at 100% reporting and Cassidy wins 75-25. Landrieu is down 3 from November 4. So, if trends hold, 38% statewide.
The numbers are all over the place. In some parishes, it's Cassidy +3, others Landrieu +3 or 4. She may get to 42-44 when Orleans fully dumps.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Free Bird on December 06, 2014, 10:23:10 PM
FOX, If you could stop talking about Elvis for 5 minutes...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 06, 2014, 10:25:17 PM
Caldwell is at 100% reporting and Cassidy wins 75-25. Landrieu is down 3 from November 4. So, if trends hold, 38% statewide.
Caldwell is on of the smallest (and most R) parishes in the state. Don't extrapolate that much from it.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on December 06, 2014, 10:28:45 PM
Caldwell is at 100% reporting and Cassidy wins 75-25. Landrieu is down 3 from November 4. So, if trends hold, 38% statewide.
Caldwell is on of the smallest (and most R) parishes in the state. Don't extrapolate that much from it.
Looks like the New Orleans-area parishes are in the +3 or +4 Landrieu range, so somewhere around 42-46 seems about right after the other 2/3 of Orleans Parish dumps.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 06, 2014, 10:43:01 PM
Looks like Landrieu has the potential to get 44% with the amount Orleans still has to go.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on December 06, 2014, 10:43:05 PM
What is the current results?
I actually forgot about this race all day until just now.
I actually forgot about this race all day until just now.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 06, 2014, 10:44:46 PM
What is the current results?
I actually forgot about this race all day until just now.
I actually forgot about this race all day until just now.
91% precincts reporting, 57.5-42.5 Cassidy
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: KCDem on December 06, 2014, 10:45:44 PM
Landrieu outperforms expectations!!!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Türkisblau on December 06, 2014, 10:46:20 PM
Well, at least it's not as bad as it could have been. All the hype about being "Thompsoned" was wrong; it's looking about as bad as Pryor if not better.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 06, 2014, 10:50:13 PM
Jefferson is pretty close; Cassidy is only winning it by 5-6 with almost everything in.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 06, 2014, 10:50:35 PM
My prediction of 64-36 Abraham was spot on. I shall now accept my accolades
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 06, 2014, 10:53:06 PM
84/118 precincts left are from Orleans. She'll get close to 44%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: solarstorm on December 06, 2014, 10:53:14 PM
Now she finally leads in East Baton Rouge.
And she's likely to have ahigher percentage than in November. Apparently, most users underestimated her performance.
And she's likely to have ahigher percentage than in November. Apparently, most users underestimated her performance.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on December 06, 2014, 10:55:09 PM
57-43 or 56-44 is respectable, I guess. She's actually doing a lot better than expected, considering it looks like turnout will have dropped by like 200,000 votes from November.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 06, 2014, 10:55:33 PM
84/118 precincts left are from Orleans. She'll get close to 44%
Looks like my 43.5% prediction was good :D
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 06, 2014, 10:59:48 PM
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: solarstorm on December 06, 2014, 11:00:47 PM
I'll stick to what I said: Mary should run for Governor next year. Her brother should stay in New Orleans.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on December 06, 2014, 11:01:24 PM
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on December 06, 2014, 11:01:50 PM
Well, the fact that she exceeded expectations means she could still possibly run for Governor or Senator in the future.
Not Thompsoned. Not Blanched. Not even Pryored/Santorumed! Well done Mary.
Not Thompsoned. Not Blanched. Not even Pryored/Santorumed! Well done Mary.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Matty on December 06, 2014, 11:04:02 PM
Republicans should be alarmed at this result.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 06, 2014, 11:04:22 PM
Well, the fact that she exceeded expectations means she could still possibly run for Governor or Senator in the future.
Not Thompsoned. Not Blanched. Not even Pryored/Santorumed! Well done Mary.
Not Thompsoned. Not Blanched. Not even Pryored/Santorumed! Well done Mary.
No, but Landrieud. She'll still end up losing by 12-13 points, that's nothing to celebrate over.
I think Cassidy could've done a little better had he actually campaigned...
84/118 precincts left are from Orleans. She'll get close to 44%
Looks like my 43.5% prediction was good :D
Congrats, Miles!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 06, 2014, 11:08:14 PM
As in, clutching at it. Louisiana is 30% Black. A convicted paedophile could probably poll 40% as a Democrat in a seriously contested statewide election (but no higher).
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Keystone Phil on December 06, 2014, 11:09:18 PM
As I said. Yawn.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on December 06, 2014, 11:10:47 PM
Republicans should be alarmed at this result.
Oh yeah, they ONLY beat a sitting Senator by 10-14 points. /sarcasm
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on December 06, 2014, 11:13:19 PM
As in, clutching at it. Louisiana is 30% Black. A convicted paedophile could probably poll 40% as a Democrat in a seriously contested statewide election (but no higher).
Are you insinuating Charlie Melancon is worse than a convicted pedophile?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Clarko95 📚💰📈 on December 06, 2014, 11:13:41 PM
Well, it was a good ride while it lasted. Had to end sometime. Goodbye Mary, we'll miss ya
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on December 06, 2014, 11:14:22 PM
()
guys do you think al is right :(
he definitely has a creepy smile
guys do you think al is right :(
he definitely has a creepy smile
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 06, 2014, 11:15:11 PM
Republicans should be alarmed at this result.
Oh yeah, they ONLY beat a sitting Senator by 10-14 points. /sarcasm
Many of the AoS workers I was updating the election data with (I was the only Democrat) were disappointed at Cassidy's margin.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 06, 2014, 11:15:54 PM
Its 56.8-43.2 right now and the rest of the vote is New Orleans. It'll be 56-44.
On another note, Cassidy did surprisingly weak in Jefferson Parish, only 53-47. I think New Orleans has a lot of moderate suburbanites.
On another note, Cassidy did surprisingly weak in Jefferson Parish, only 53-47. I think New Orleans has a lot of moderate suburbanites.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on December 06, 2014, 11:18:05 PM
So the DSCC spent millions on Pryor for him to lose by 18 points, and spent $0 on Landrieu who lost by 12. Thanks guys!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Clarko95 📚💰📈 on December 06, 2014, 11:19:57 PM
I think New Orleans has a lot of moderate suburbanites.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 06, 2014, 11:20:25 PM
I think New Orleans has a lot of moderate suburbanites.
Actually, no. Landrieu's (relatively) good showing in Jefferson Parish has much more to do with demographic change since the storm.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: solarstorm on December 06, 2014, 11:21:47 PM
I wonder how small her margin would be if the DNC had payed for her 1 million dollar ad.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on December 06, 2014, 11:23:10 PM
Republicans should be alarmed at this result.
Oh yeah, they ONLY beat a sitting Senator by 10-14 points. /sarcasm
Many of the AoS workers I was updating the election data with (I was the only Democrat) were disappointed at Cassidy's margin.
It's about where it should have been given Cassidy + Republican +Libertarian vote (~56%) and Landrieu + Democrat vote (~44%) in the jungle primary. Kind of inelastic in a way.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 06, 2014, 11:23:50 PM
Skrmetta (R) wins public service commissioner district 1, 51-49 over Wright (R).
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 06, 2014, 11:43:10 PM
All of Orleans is in and Cassidy is up 56/44.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 06, 2014, 11:50:25 PM
I think New Orleans has a lot of moderate suburbanites.
Actually, no. Landrieu's (relatively) good showing in Jefferson Parish has much more to do with demographic change since the storm.
That makes sense. Romney performed worse than Bush despite him doing better in the state. Could that explain St. Bernard, too?
All of Orleans is in and Cassidy is up 56/44.
Yeah, what a Blanching. The early votes were so deceptive, and of course pollsters did what they did all this cycle, they poll to get a response close to the overall consensus.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 06, 2014, 11:52:31 PM
I think New Orleans has a lot of moderate suburbanites.
Actually, no. Landrieu's (relatively) good showing in Jefferson Parish has much more to do with demographic change since the storm.
That makes sense. Romney performed worse than Bush despite him doing better in the state. Could that explain St. Bernard, too?
All of Orleans is in and Cassidy is up 56/44.
Yeah, what a Blanching. The early votes were so deceptive, and of course pollsters did what they did all this cycle, they poll to get a response close to the overall consensus.
I'll get deeper into the weeds later with precinct maps, but yeah. Same thing in St. Benard Parish. It gave David Duke 55%+ both times but went for Landrieu this year and in 2008. How times change haha
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Holmes on December 06, 2014, 11:52:32 PM
As in, clutching at it. Louisiana is 30% Black. A convicted paedophile could probably poll 40% as a Democrat in a seriously contested statewide election (but no higher).
A convicted paedophile could probably win statewide in Louisiana as a Republican too.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: RI on December 06, 2014, 11:56:50 PM
Right is swing from Obama 2012 in one percent increments.
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 06, 2014, 11:59:23 PM
^ Cameron Parish is dark red but Landrieu still only got 21% there!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 07, 2014, 12:01:06 AM
AOSHQDD calls Senate for Cassidy.
Don't remind me :P
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 07, 2014, 12:05:14 AM
Final Margins:
Skrmetta - 51%
Wright - 49%
Abraham - 64%
Mayo - 36%
Graves - 62%
Edwards - 38%
Cassidy - 56%
Landrieu - 44%
Skrmetta - 51%
Wright - 49%
Abraham - 64%
Mayo - 36%
Graves - 62%
Edwards - 38%
Cassidy - 56%
Landrieu - 44%
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Recalcuate on December 07, 2014, 12:15:34 AM
There were about 180,000 fewer votes cast vs. the jungle primary. It seems like those that didn't show up to vote were split to their percentages in the general.
In the jungle primary, there were 813,352 votes (56.02%) cast for Republican or Libertarian candidates, while 638,658 (43.98%) were cast for Democrats.
In the runoff, 712,330 voted for Cassidy (55.94%) vs. 561,099 for Landrieu (44.06%). Extremely static.
In the jungle primary, there were 813,352 votes (56.02%) cast for Republican or Libertarian candidates, while 638,658 (43.98%) were cast for Democrats.
In the runoff, 712,330 voted for Cassidy (55.94%) vs. 561,099 for Landrieu (44.06%). Extremely static.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 07, 2014, 12:18:16 AM
Landrieu = red, Melancon = blue: (http://www.openheatmap.com/view.html?map=GrundyistWhidahsMegarian)
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on December 07, 2014, 12:21:31 AM
I don't know that we can call this a Blanching. Blanche Lincoln lost by 21 points, George McGovern by 19, Mark Pryor by 18, Rick Santorum by 16. Mary Landrieu lost by 12, which actually seems to me like a reasonably good showing for a Democrat running statewide in modern-day Louisiana.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on December 07, 2014, 12:34:21 AM
I don't know that we can call this a Blanching. Blanche Lincoln lost by 21 points, George McGovern by 19, Mark Pryor by 18, Rick Santorum by 16. Mary Landrieu lost by 12, which actually seems to me like a reasonably good showing for a Democrat running statewide in modern-day Louisiana.
Santorum actually lost by 18 (59-41).
And I'm saying this just to annoy Phil, but when you go to the decimal point, Santorum actually lost by 0.2 more than Pryor. ;)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on December 07, 2014, 12:35:53 AM
I don't know that we can call this a Blanching. Blanche Lincoln lost by 21 points, George McGovern by 19, Mark Pryor by 18, Rick Santorum by 16. Mary Landrieu lost by 12, which actually seems to me like a reasonably good showing for a Democrat running statewide in modern-day Louisiana.
Santorum actually lost by 18 (59-41).
And I'm saying this just to annoy Phil, but when you go to the decimal point, Santorum actually lost by 0.2 more than Pryor. ;)
Ah, my mistake. The point still stands, that Landrieu isn't quite in that category :P
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 07, 2014, 12:41:42 AM
I don't know that we can call this a Blanching. Blanche Lincoln lost by 21 points, George McGovern by 19, Mark Pryor by 18, Rick Santorum by 16. Mary Landrieu lost by 12, which actually seems to me like a reasonably good showing for a Democrat running statewide in modern-day Louisiana.
Pryor and Santorum actually both lost by 17
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 07, 2014, 12:41:53 AM
Landrieu's runoff's in 2002 vs 2014. (http://www.openheatmap.com/view.html?map=AntiochiansLindsTramp) Terrell= red, Cassidy = blue.
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: rbt48 on December 07, 2014, 01:16:28 AM
I hope that Louisiana trashes the Jungle Primary system. It was designed to keep Republicans from making it to the runoff. Now that they dominate the state, Louisiana should return to electing officials and representatives on election day. Let the parties choose their candidates in primaries.
The larger turnout on the November general election day is reason enough to abandon the current system.
The larger turnout on the November general election day is reason enough to abandon the current system.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 07, 2014, 01:18:45 AM
^ If Vitter becomes Governor, I'd say odds are better than 50% he tries to get rid of it. Interestingly, most of my friends in the LADP also want to trash it.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: smoltchanov on December 07, 2014, 01:19:11 AM
I can only repeat here what i wrote in another topic:
Hail, Mary!!! To get more then 44% in conservative Louisiana after being utterly abandoned and thrown under bus by her own party is really something!
Hail, Mary!!! To get more then 44% in conservative Louisiana after being utterly abandoned and thrown under bus by her own party is really something!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Lief 🗽 on December 07, 2014, 01:23:55 AM
Why would Republicans trash it? It probably helps them over all.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 07, 2014, 01:25:19 AM
Why would Republicans trash it? It probably helps them over all.
Because it gets people like Vance McAllister elected. The argument is that, as R-on-R races will become more frequent, they're letting Democrats pick their winner.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Tender Branson on December 07, 2014, 03:02:01 AM
Final results of the midterms:
Senate: 54R, 44D, 2I (vote with Ds) (R+9)
House: 247R, 188D (R+13)
Gov: 31R, 18D, 1I (R+2, I+1)
Senate: 54R, 44D, 2I (vote with Ds) (R+9)
House: 247R, 188D (R+13)
Gov: 31R, 18D, 1I (R+2, I+1)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 07, 2014, 04:07:18 AM
Final results of the midterms:
Senate: 54R, 44D, 2I (vote with Ds) (R+9)
House: 247R, 188D (R+13)
Gov: 31R, 18D, 1I (R+2, I+1)
Senate: 54R, 44D, 2I (vote with Ds) (R+9)
House: 247R, 188D (R+13)
Gov: 31R, 18D, 1I (R+2, I+1)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Tender Branson on December 07, 2014, 04:41:08 AM
Final results of the midterms:
Senate: 54R, 44D, 2I (vote with Ds) (R+9)
House: 247R, 188D (R+13)
Gov: 31R, 18D, 1I (R+2, I+1)
Senate: 54R, 44D, 2I (vote with Ds) (R+9)
House: 247R, 188D (R+13)
Gov: 31R, 18D, 1I (R+2, I+1)
Yeah, but what are the chances that the recount changes anything ?
1% ?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 07, 2014, 05:15:43 AM
LA by CD:
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 07, 2014, 12:53:36 PM
As in, clutching at it. Louisiana is 30% Black. A convicted paedophile could probably poll 40% as a Democrat in a seriously contested statewide election (but no higher).
Are you insinuating Charlie Melancon is worse than a convicted pedophile?
I meant it figuratively rather than literally, but I note that the man was a sugarcane lobbyist...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 07, 2014, 01:33:02 PM
The Cajuns in Acadiana were the worst traitors:
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 07, 2014, 02:20:09 PM
^ I was kinda shocked when I saw that LA-03 went more Republican than LA-01.
Some more finalized results:
Alaska:
Dan Sullivan: 135,445 (48.0%)
Mark Begich: 129,431 (45.8%)
Illinois:
Dick Durbin: 1,929,637 (53.5%)
Jim Oberweis: 1,538,522 (42.7%)
Maine:
Susan Collins: 413,505 (68.4%)
Shenna Bellows: 190,254 (31.5%)
Massachusetts:
Ed Markey: 1,289,944 (61.9%)
Brian Herr: 791,950 (38.0%)
Michigan:
Gary Peters: 1,704,936 (54.6%)
Terri Land: 1,290,199 (41.3%)
Minnesota:
Al Franken: 1,053,205 (53.1%)
Mike McFadden: 850,227 (42.9%)
Mississippi:
Thad Cochran: 378,481 (59.9%)
Travis Childers: 239,439 (37.9%)
New Jersey:
Cory Booker: 1,043,866 (55.8%)
Jeff Bell: 791,297 (42.3%)
North Carolina:
Thom Tillis: 1,423,259 (48.8%)
Kay Hagan: 1,377,651 (47.3%)
Oregon:
Jeff Merkley: 814,537 (55.7%)
Monica Wehby: 538,847 (36.9%)
Some more finalized results:
Alaska:
Dan Sullivan: 135,445 (48.0%)
Mark Begich: 129,431 (45.8%)
Illinois:
Dick Durbin: 1,929,637 (53.5%)
Jim Oberweis: 1,538,522 (42.7%)
Maine:
Susan Collins: 413,505 (68.4%)
Shenna Bellows: 190,254 (31.5%)
Massachusetts:
Ed Markey: 1,289,944 (61.9%)
Brian Herr: 791,950 (38.0%)
Michigan:
Gary Peters: 1,704,936 (54.6%)
Terri Land: 1,290,199 (41.3%)
Minnesota:
Al Franken: 1,053,205 (53.1%)
Mike McFadden: 850,227 (42.9%)
Mississippi:
Thad Cochran: 378,481 (59.9%)
Travis Childers: 239,439 (37.9%)
New Jersey:
Cory Booker: 1,043,866 (55.8%)
Jeff Bell: 791,297 (42.3%)
North Carolina:
Thom Tillis: 1,423,259 (48.8%)
Kay Hagan: 1,377,651 (47.3%)
Oregon:
Jeff Merkley: 814,537 (55.7%)
Monica Wehby: 538,847 (36.9%)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 07, 2014, 02:46:44 PM
^ I was kinda shocked when I saw that LA-03 went more Republican than LA-01.
It really shows how Republican rural whites have gotten. LA-01 is actually the most white, but Landrieu's crossover appeal in the New Orleans metro cancelled that out.
10 years ago, it would have never seemed that CD3 would be more R than CD5.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr.Phips on December 07, 2014, 02:52:53 PM
^ I was kinda shocked when I saw that LA-03 went more Republican than LA-01.
It really shows how Republican rural whites have gotten. LA-01 is actually the most white, but Landrieu's crossover appeal in the New Orleans metro cancelled that out.
10 years ago, it would have never seemed that CD3 would be more R than CD5.
Well Dems are always going to have a higher floor in the 5th due to the black population.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 07, 2014, 03:09:17 PM
^ I was kinda shocked when I saw that LA-03 went more Republican than LA-01.
It really shows how Republican rural whites have gotten. LA-01 is actually the most white, but Landrieu's crossover appeal in the New Orleans metro cancelled that out.
10 years ago, it would have never seemed that CD3 would be more R than CD5.
Well Dems are always going to have a higher floor in the 5th due to the black population.
Yep. Still, given the north's history of being more like the rest of the deep south with Acadiana being more liberal, its interesting.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 07, 2014, 04:26:14 PM
Jefferson Parish:
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Skill and Chance on December 07, 2014, 05:15:43 PM
Might we be starting to see the impact of New Orleans turning into an arts/moviemaking hub? It certainly won't be enough to turn the state liberal, but the NOLA suburbs do look to be getting more competitive even as the rural areas drift more unanimously GOP. That could keep the state out of AR/KY/WV territory.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 07, 2014, 07:03:30 PM
^ Yeah, thats the vibe I get. New Orleans is getting more of a white liberal influence, which is also starting to trickle out into the suburbs.
Baton Rouge:
()
Despite all that red, Landrieu did exactly the same as Obama.
Baton Rouge:
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Despite all that red, Landrieu did exactly the same as Obama.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 07, 2014, 07:24:28 PM
She ran well ahead of Obama in the Nawlins burbs in 2008 fwiw. Personal vote.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: CatoMinor on December 08, 2014, 04:25:48 PM
Is there a map made yet of the House results by county?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 09, 2014, 10:31:25 AM
^ Don't know about county results, but I can get you parish results ;)
OurCampaigns actually has pretty good maps:
LA-05 (http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=795413)
LA-06 (http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=795414)
OurCampaigns actually has pretty good maps:
LA-05 (http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=795413)
LA-06 (http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=795414)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 09, 2014, 10:59:38 AM
Landrieu's result really shows how brutal Pryor's was. Here's what LA would look like, with uniform swing, if Landrieu lost by the same margin as Pryor:
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Most notably, Landrieu loses East Baton Rouge Parish (by less than a point).
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Most notably, Landrieu loses East Baton Rouge Parish (by less than a point).
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: smoltchanov on December 09, 2014, 11:10:55 AM
^ I was kinda shocked when I saw that LA-03 went more Republican than LA-01.
It really shows how Republican rural whites have gotten. LA-01 is actually the most white, but Landrieu's crossover appeal in the New Orleans metro cancelled that out.
10 years ago, it would have never seemed that CD3 would be more R than CD5.
Well Dems are always going to have a higher floor in the 5th due to the black population.
Yep. Still, given the north's history of being more like the rest of the deep south with Acadiana being more liberal, its interesting.
Acadiana is (AFAIK) more populist economically (though most of this populism is in the past), but deeply socially conservative (Catholic belief????), so now, when Democratic party is substantially more liberal socially, then economically (as in FDR time), that makes lot of sense...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 09, 2014, 11:17:36 AM
Acadiana is (AFAIK) more populist economically (though most of this populism is in the past), but deeply socially conservative (Catholic belief????), so now, when Democratic party is substantially more liberal socially, then economically (as in FDR time), that makes lot of sense...
The problem, IMO, is that you're not really gonna see that liberal populist streak return as long as the region votes Republican. It really disappoints me that LA seems to be losing its 'uniqueness'; that economic populism is part of what makes (made) LA different.
Yes, voters there are very hung up on social issues. Basically, they now vote the Catholic way on social issues, but not the Catholic was on economic issues as they used to.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: CatoMinor on December 09, 2014, 11:24:23 AM
^ Don't know about county results, but I can get you parish results ;)
OurCampaigns actually has pretty good maps:
LA-05 (http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=795413)
LA-06 (http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=795414)
OurCampaigns actually has pretty good maps:
LA-05 (http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=795413)
LA-06 (http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=795414)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: smoltchanov on December 09, 2014, 12:58:45 PM
Acadiana is (AFAIK) more populist economically (though most of this populism is in the past), but deeply socially conservative (Catholic belief????), so now, when Democratic party is substantially more liberal socially, then economically (as in FDR time), that makes lot of sense...
The problem, IMO, is that you're not really gonna see that liberal populist streak return as long as the region votes Republican. It really disappoints me that LA seems to be losing its 'uniqueness'; that economic populism is part of what makes (made) LA different.
Yes, voters there are very hung up on social issues. Basically, they now vote the Catholic way on social issues, but not the Catholic was on economic issues as they used to.
Exactly what i wanted to say (though the "Anti-Long" faction of Democratic party wasn't especially liberal on economy either). But Acadiana still sends considerable number of Democrats (usually - not especially liberal, and in some cases - simply conservative) to the legislature. It seems to me - there will be less of them after 2015 elections.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 09, 2014, 01:42:47 PM
Converesly, Pryor losing by Landrieu's margin:
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SNJ1985 on December 10, 2014, 10:52:07 PM
Did anyone notice how, in the Nebraska Senate race; petitioning candidate Jim Jenkins beat the Democrat, Dave Domina, in his home county of Custer County?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Republic on December 10, 2014, 10:58:42 PM
Did anyone notice how, in the Nebraska Senate race; petitioning candidate Jim Jenkins beat the Democrat, Dave Domina, in his home county of Custer County?
That's clearly an error. Well spotted!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Ebowed on December 11, 2014, 12:35:40 AM
Did anyone notice how, in the Nebraska Senate race; petitioning candidate Jim Jenkins beat the Democrat, Dave Domina, in his home county of Custer County?
That's clearly an error. Well spotted!
2012 for comparison (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2012&fips=31041&f=1&off=3&elect=0&class=1). It doesn't look like an error to me, as Jim Jenkins is from Custer county and garnered more votes than Kerrey did.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on December 11, 2014, 02:21:42 AM
Did anyone notice how, in the Nebraska Senate race; petitioning candidate Jim Jenkins beat the Democrat, Dave Domina, in his home county of Custer County?
He did in Blaine Co also.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Republic on December 11, 2014, 04:53:58 AM
Did anyone notice how, in the Nebraska Senate race; petitioning candidate Jim Jenkins beat the Democrat, Dave Domina, in his home county of Custer County?
That's clearly an error. Well spotted!
2012 for comparison (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2012&fips=31041&f=1&off=3&elect=0&class=1). It doesn't look like an error to me, as Jim Jenkins is from Custer county and garnered more votes than Kerrey did.
My mistake; I misread Thomas' post.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 12, 2014, 06:18:37 PM
When is AZ-2 expected to be finally&officially declared?
December 16th. For all intents and purposes, McSally has won.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 17, 2014, 12:38:03 PM
With AZ-2 now officially going for McSally, all that is left is the Vermont governorship. One would assume that the legislature would choose Shumlin due to him winning the PV and the legislature being democratic, but Milne continues to push the members of the legislature to choose him instead.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on December 17, 2014, 04:29:53 PM
With AZ-2 now officially going for McSally, all that is left is the Vermont governorship. One would assume that the legislature would choose Shumlin due to him winning the PV and the legislature being democratic, but Milne continues to push the members of the legislature to choose him instead.
There is no assuming. The Leg' has never chosen a candidate for the Governorship who didn't win the popular vote. It's not an uncommon occurrence, either.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 17, 2014, 05:22:56 PM
With AZ-2 now officially going for McSally, all that is left is the Vermont governorship. One would assume that the legislature would choose Shumlin due to him winning the PV and the legislature being democratic, but Milne continues to push the members of the legislature to choose him instead.
There is no assuming. The Leg' has never chosen a candidate for the Governorship who didn't win the popular vote. It's not an uncommon occurrence, either.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on December 17, 2014, 09:11:11 PM
Barrow's % improvement over Nunn:
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Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Ebowed on December 18, 2014, 02:53:58 AM
With AZ-2 now officially going for McSally, all that is left is the Vermont governorship. One would assume that the legislature would choose Shumlin due to him winning the PV and the legislature being democratic, but Milne continues to push the members of the legislature to choose him instead.
There is no assuming. The Leg' has never chosen a candidate for the Governorship who didn't win the popular vote. It's not an uncommon occurrence, either.
That won't happen, the political backlash for Milne would be tremendous. Democrats didn't do that when Douglas got less than 50% in 2002, either.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Tender Branson on December 18, 2014, 05:18:21 AM
BTW: The secret ballot to elect the VT-Gov. will be held on Jan. 7
The new (or old) Gov. then gets sworn in on Jan. 8
The last Governor to be sworn in btw will be MD's on Jan. 21
2 new Governors are already in office: in AK & HI
The new (or old) Gov. then gets sworn in on Jan. 8
The last Governor to be sworn in btw will be MD's on Jan. 21
2 new Governors are already in office: in AK & HI
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vega on December 18, 2014, 08:28:38 AM
I never got the point of swearing in an elected official past a week after the election.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SNJ1985 on December 19, 2014, 08:21:09 PM
Using Paint.NET, I put together this map of how every municipality voted in the 2014 Senate race here in New Jersey. I thank Wikipedia user Mr. Matté for creating the blank map I used to make this.
Enjoy! Also, please let me know if you spot any mistakes.
()
Red = Cory Booker (Democratic)
Blue = Jeff Bell (Republican)
Enjoy! Also, please let me know if you spot any mistakes.
()
Red = Cory Booker (Democratic)
Blue = Jeff Bell (Republican)
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: homelycooking on December 21, 2014, 10:28:57 PM
The Department of Elections' results (http://www.state.nj.us/state/elections/2014-results/2014-us-senate-gen-elec-results-by-county-ocean.pdf) show Booker winning Lakewood Township in Ocean County.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: nclib on December 21, 2014, 11:32:54 PM
Is that the one that is half Orthodox Jewish?
What are the two blue towns surrounded by red in NE Jersey like?
What are the two blue towns surrounded by red in NE Jersey like?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SNJ1985 on December 22, 2014, 09:18:04 PM
The Department of Elections' results (http://www.state.nj.us/state/elections/2014-results/2014-us-senate-gen-elec-results-by-county-ocean.pdf) show Booker winning Lakewood Township in Ocean County.
Thanks. I've re-colored it accordingly.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: homelycooking on December 22, 2014, 10:58:05 PM
Is that the one that is half Orthodox Jewish?
What are the two blue towns surrounded by red in NE Jersey like?
What are the two blue towns surrounded by red in NE Jersey like?
1. Yes. Looks like the rabbis endorsed Booker this time around.
2. One of them is Teterboro, which contains an airport and a tiny residential zone home to a few dozen people. Jeff Bell won the borough with 9 votes to Booker's 7.
SNJ, I think you've also jumbled the results for Pemberton Boro and Township in Burlington County.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SNJ1985 on December 23, 2014, 10:03:49 PM
SNJ, I think you've also jumbled the results for Pemberton Boro and Township in Burlington County.
Fixed.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: homelycooking on December 23, 2014, 10:33:31 PM
O.K., here's my version with a very detailed color scale:
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()
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SNJ1985 on December 23, 2014, 10:37:52 PM
Man, I just spotted ANOTHER mistake. I colored Absecon red when Jeff Bell actually won it.
I need to start making extra-sure I get everything right before I post my maps.
I need to start making extra-sure I get everything right before I post my maps.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: homelycooking on December 23, 2014, 10:52:47 PM
Jeff Bell won Brigantine and Mountainside, Booker won Woodcliff Lake...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SNJ1985 on December 23, 2014, 11:07:01 PM
Jeff Bell won Brigantine and Mountainside, Booker won Woodcliff Lake...
Alright, I think it's finally good now.
Well, I learned my lesson.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 136or142 on December 24, 2014, 02:35:35 PM
Final Aggregate U.S Congressional vote totals. I've 'audited' these numbers several times so this should be correct. It's possible a state may change their official results, as Texas already has. I'm not sure how that happens. Imagine a close result: "well, we had said you officially won, but now we say you officially lost!"
Total votes: 77,962,105
Republican: 40,084,793 51.4% 247 (393 candidates)
Democratic: 35,624,361 45.7% 188 (399 candidates)
Libertarian: 963,318 1.2% (121 candidates)
Green: 277,229 (45 candidates)
Constitution: 54,167 (10 candidates)
Independent and parties that run in only one state: 858,462
Write In: 99,775 (note: this total is incomplete)
Note: in Florida 12,14,25,27 and Oklahoma 1, the Representatives were reelected without opposition and their races did not appear on the ballot. Florida 12,25,27 and Oklahoma 1 are represented by Republicans while Florida 14 is represented by a Democrat.
Also, the Pennsylvania write in totals are incomplete. The official results do not include them, but I found from a Pittsburgh Gazette article that there were write in votes. Unfortunately, though only published the Alleghany County results. Same for Kansas and Nebraska.
Washington State also allows for write in votes but does not count them.
Also, as many of you probably know, New York allows for 'fusion' voting. I've counted all of the votes the major party candidates received from minor parties with the major parties. This is a difference between me and the Clerk of the House of Representatives.
2012 voter age population: 235,248,000 (includes felons who are unable to vote). In addition to the 5 Congressional districts that did not appear on the ballot, several million Americans also cast ballots in the election, but did not vote for a congressional candidate. That said, no more than 82 or 83 million Americans cast ballots.
If anybody wants me to I can post the state by state results.
Don't go looking for this on the internet, I compiled the totals myself from the state Secretary of State websites.
I hope Dave Leip doesn't mind me posting this since he sells the data.
Total votes: 77,962,105
Republican: 40,084,793 51.4% 247 (393 candidates)
Democratic: 35,624,361 45.7% 188 (399 candidates)
Libertarian: 963,318 1.2% (121 candidates)
Green: 277,229 (45 candidates)
Constitution: 54,167 (10 candidates)
Independent and parties that run in only one state: 858,462
Write In: 99,775 (note: this total is incomplete)
Note: in Florida 12,14,25,27 and Oklahoma 1, the Representatives were reelected without opposition and their races did not appear on the ballot. Florida 12,25,27 and Oklahoma 1 are represented by Republicans while Florida 14 is represented by a Democrat.
Also, the Pennsylvania write in totals are incomplete. The official results do not include them, but I found from a Pittsburgh Gazette article that there were write in votes. Unfortunately, though only published the Alleghany County results. Same for Kansas and Nebraska.
Washington State also allows for write in votes but does not count them.
Also, as many of you probably know, New York allows for 'fusion' voting. I've counted all of the votes the major party candidates received from minor parties with the major parties. This is a difference between me and the Clerk of the House of Representatives.
2012 voter age population: 235,248,000 (includes felons who are unable to vote). In addition to the 5 Congressional districts that did not appear on the ballot, several million Americans also cast ballots in the election, but did not vote for a congressional candidate. That said, no more than 82 or 83 million Americans cast ballots.
If anybody wants me to I can post the state by state results.
Don't go looking for this on the internet, I compiled the totals myself from the state Secretary of State websites.
I hope Dave Leip doesn't mind me posting this since he sells the data.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on December 24, 2014, 02:46:27 PM
Imagine a close result: "well, we had said you officially won, but now we say you officially lost!"
It happened in the 1960 Hawaii Presidential election. The Nixon electors were certified. They were replaced with Kennedy electors on January 4th, which the Supreme Court decided to ignore when they appointed Bush President after the recount didn't finish by a bogus December 12th deadline after the Supreme Court stopped the recount.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Tender Branson on December 24, 2014, 02:49:34 PM
I hope Dave Leip doesn't mind me posting this since he sells the data.
He's going to kill you while you sleep.
Merry Christmas !
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 136or142 on December 24, 2014, 11:14:34 PM
For those who think the Libertarians or Greens are on an upswing consider this.
Libertarians
Total votes in districts where both a Republican and a Democrat ran: 593,244 (103 districts) average: 5,760
Total votes in districts where one of the major parties did not run a candidate: 370,074 (18 districts) average: 20,560
Greens
Total votes in districts where both a Republican and a Democrat ran: 182,832 (39 districts) average: average: 4,688
Total votes in districts where one of the major parties did not run a candidate: 94,397 (6 districts) average: 15,733
Libertarians
Total votes in districts where both a Republican and a Democrat ran: 593,244 (103 districts) average: 5,760
Total votes in districts where one of the major parties did not run a candidate: 370,074 (18 districts) average: 20,560
Greens
Total votes in districts where both a Republican and a Democrat ran: 182,832 (39 districts) average: average: 4,688
Total votes in districts where one of the major parties did not run a candidate: 94,397 (6 districts) average: 15,733
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on December 24, 2014, 11:16:17 PM
I don't think Libertarians or Greens are on an upswing, but I think it's difficult to argue that the Republican Party isn't becoming more libertarian, or that the Democratic Party isn't becoming more environmentalist, and that libertarianism and environmentalism aren't becoming more widely held, mainstream positions, as time goes on.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 136or142 on December 25, 2014, 12:11:34 AM
I assume you mean "ARE becoming more widely held"
The Republican Party is partly having a battle between its libertarian wing led, of course, by Rand Paul (against spying, mixed feelings on the police, pro marijuana) and its authoritarian wing (opposite on all those issues led by Rudy Ghooliani, Mike Rogers and probably Jeb Bush.) This battle will certainly be a major debate in 2016 presidential primaries.
The Democratic shift is likely due largely to its House makeup: very urban. As private sector unions decline and the Democrats lose districts in rural areas,small towns and resource dependent communities the environmental wing gains.
There are still pro resource development champions in the Democratic Party and former Montana governor Brian Schweitzer could be their leader in the 2016 presidential primaries.
The Republican Party is partly having a battle between its libertarian wing led, of course, by Rand Paul (against spying, mixed feelings on the police, pro marijuana) and its authoritarian wing (opposite on all those issues led by Rudy Ghooliani, Mike Rogers and probably Jeb Bush.) This battle will certainly be a major debate in 2016 presidential primaries.
The Democratic shift is likely due largely to its House makeup: very urban. As private sector unions decline and the Democrats lose districts in rural areas,small towns and resource dependent communities the environmental wing gains.
There are still pro resource development champions in the Democratic Party and former Montana governor Brian Schweitzer could be their leader in the 2016 presidential primaries.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 136or142 on December 25, 2014, 05:20:02 PM
Aggregate Congressional results by state.
Alabama: 1,080,880 (7 Districts)
Republican: 704,533 65.2% 6 (6 candidates)
Democratic: 331,764 30.7% 1 (5 candidates)
Independent: 39,005
Write In: 5,578
Alaska: 279,741 (1 District)
Republican: 142,572 51.0% 1
Democratic: 114,602 41.0% 0
Libertarian: 21,290 7.6%
Write In: 1,277
Arizona: 1,467,617 (9 Districts)
Republican: 817,178 55.7% 5 (8 Candidates)
Democratic: 577,947 39.4% 4 (8 candidates)
Libertarian: 23,767 1.6% (3 candidates)
American Electors: 44,924 (2 candidates)
Independent: 3,496
Write In: 305
Arkansas: 830,652 (4 Districts)
Republican: 509,631 61.4% 4 (4 candidates)
Democratic: 254,774 30.7% 0 (3 candidates)
Libertarian: 66,055 8.0% (4 candidates)
Write In: 192
California: 7,132,361 (53 Districts) Note: California has a runoff election where the top two candidates in the primary run irrespective of party
Democratic: 4,067,737 57.0% 39 (candidates in 51 districts)
Republican: 2,950,619 41.4% 14 (candidates in 44 districts)
New Patriotic Party: 104,813 (3 candidates)
Peace and Freedom: 9,192 (1 candidate)
In 2 districts Republicans ran against each other
In 5 districts Democrats ran against each other
Wiki: "Proposition 14 specifically prohibits write-in candidates in the second round, and this prohibition was upheld in a court challenge."
Colorado: 2,000,525 (7 districts)
Republican: 1,000,197 50.0% 4 (7 candidates)
Democratic: 936,417 46.8% 3 (7 candidates)
Libertarian: 33,859 1.7% (4 candidates)
Green: 5,503 (1 candidate)
Independent: 24,546
Write In: 3
Connecticut: 1,067,857 (5 candidates)
Democratic: 638,695 59.8% 5 (5 candidates)
Republican: 418,589 39.2% 0 (5 candidates)
Libertarian: 2,602 0.2% (1 candidate)
Green: 5,996 (2 candidates)
Independent: 1,970
Write In: 5
Delaware: 231,617 (1 District)
Democratic: 137,251 59.3% 1
Republican: 85,146 36.8% 0
Libertarian: 4,419 1.8%
Green: 4,801 2.1%
Florida: 4,998,555 (27 Districts)
Republican: 2,713,451 54.3% 17 (25 candidates)
Democratic: 2,130,626 42.6% 10 (22 candidates)
Libertarian: 61,989 1.2% (2 candidates)
Independent Workers Party: 13,690 (1 candidate)
Independent: 77,378
Write In: 1,421
Note: 3 Republican and 1 Democratic incumbent faced no opposition and the race did not appear on the ballot. So the totals are for just 23 districts.
Georgia: 2,305,437 (14 Districts)
Republican: 1,349,076 58.5% 10 (11 candidates)
Democratic: 956,361 41.5% 4 (10 candidates)
Hawaii: 360,177 (2 Districts)
Democratic: 235,400 65.4% 2 (2 candidates)
Republican: 120,084 33.3% 0 (2 candidates)
Libertarian: 4,693 1.3% (1 candidate)
Constitutional Law - Burdick v. Takushi: Upholding Hawaii's Ban on Write-in Voting
Idaho: 435,157 (2 Districts)
Republican: 275,072 63.2% 2 (2 candidates)
Democratic: 160,078 36.8% 0 (2 candidates)
Write In: 7
Illiniois: 3,568,002 (18 Districts)
Democratic: 1,822,779 51.1% 10 (18 candidates)
Republican: 1,721,865 48.3% 8 (18 candidates)
Green: 23,145 (2 candidates)
Write In: 213
Indiana: 1,341,814 (9 Districts)
Republican: 788,762 58.8% 7 (9 candidates)
Democratic: 502,104 37.4% 2 (9 candidates)
Libertarian: 50,948 3.8% (8 candidates)
Iowa: 1,120,334 (4 Districts)
Republican: 595,865 53.2% 3 (4 candidates)
Democratic: 509,189 45.4% 1 (4 candidates)
Libertarian: 9,054 0.8% (1 candidate)
Independent: 4,360
Write In: 1,866
Kansas: 862,129(4 Districts)
Republican: 540,756 62.7% 4 (4 candidates)
Democratic: 311,530 36.1% 0 (4 candidates)
Libertarian: 9,791 1.1% (1 candidate)
Write In: 52 (incomplete)
Kentucky: 1,397,626 (6 Districts)
Republican: 887,157 63.5% 5 (6 candidates)
Democratic: 508,151 36.4% 1 (6 candidates)
Independent: 2,318
Louisiana: 1,407,791 (6 Districts) Note: Louisiana holds its primary on election day and the top two candidates run in a runoff if no candidate receives over 50% of the vote.
Republican: 883,649 62.8% 5 (including 2 runoff winners) (candidates in 5 districts)
Democratic: 392,876 27.9% 1 (candidates in 4 districts)
Libertarian: 84,942 6.0% (candidates in 5 districts)
Green: 1,655 (1 candidate)
Independent: 44,669
Maine: 592,371 (2 Districts)
Democratic: 305,242 51.5% 1 (2 candidates)
Republican: 228,071 38.5% 1 (2 candidates)
Independent: 58,747
Write In: 311
Maryland: 1,703,037 (8 Districts)
Democratic: 978,267 57.4% 7 (8 candidates)
Republican: 704,400 41.4% 1 (8 candidates)
Libertarian: 8,898 0.5% (2 candidates)
Green: 9,088 (2 candidates)
Write In: 2,384
Alabama: 1,080,880 (7 Districts)
Republican: 704,533 65.2% 6 (6 candidates)
Democratic: 331,764 30.7% 1 (5 candidates)
Independent: 39,005
Write In: 5,578
Alaska: 279,741 (1 District)
Republican: 142,572 51.0% 1
Democratic: 114,602 41.0% 0
Libertarian: 21,290 7.6%
Write In: 1,277
Arizona: 1,467,617 (9 Districts)
Republican: 817,178 55.7% 5 (8 Candidates)
Democratic: 577,947 39.4% 4 (8 candidates)
Libertarian: 23,767 1.6% (3 candidates)
American Electors: 44,924 (2 candidates)
Independent: 3,496
Write In: 305
Arkansas: 830,652 (4 Districts)
Republican: 509,631 61.4% 4 (4 candidates)
Democratic: 254,774 30.7% 0 (3 candidates)
Libertarian: 66,055 8.0% (4 candidates)
Write In: 192
California: 7,132,361 (53 Districts) Note: California has a runoff election where the top two candidates in the primary run irrespective of party
Democratic: 4,067,737 57.0% 39 (candidates in 51 districts)
Republican: 2,950,619 41.4% 14 (candidates in 44 districts)
New Patriotic Party: 104,813 (3 candidates)
Peace and Freedom: 9,192 (1 candidate)
In 2 districts Republicans ran against each other
In 5 districts Democrats ran against each other
Wiki: "Proposition 14 specifically prohibits write-in candidates in the second round, and this prohibition was upheld in a court challenge."
Colorado: 2,000,525 (7 districts)
Republican: 1,000,197 50.0% 4 (7 candidates)
Democratic: 936,417 46.8% 3 (7 candidates)
Libertarian: 33,859 1.7% (4 candidates)
Green: 5,503 (1 candidate)
Independent: 24,546
Write In: 3
Connecticut: 1,067,857 (5 candidates)
Democratic: 638,695 59.8% 5 (5 candidates)
Republican: 418,589 39.2% 0 (5 candidates)
Libertarian: 2,602 0.2% (1 candidate)
Green: 5,996 (2 candidates)
Independent: 1,970
Write In: 5
Delaware: 231,617 (1 District)
Democratic: 137,251 59.3% 1
Republican: 85,146 36.8% 0
Libertarian: 4,419 1.8%
Green: 4,801 2.1%
Florida: 4,998,555 (27 Districts)
Republican: 2,713,451 54.3% 17 (25 candidates)
Democratic: 2,130,626 42.6% 10 (22 candidates)
Libertarian: 61,989 1.2% (2 candidates)
Independent Workers Party: 13,690 (1 candidate)
Independent: 77,378
Write In: 1,421
Note: 3 Republican and 1 Democratic incumbent faced no opposition and the race did not appear on the ballot. So the totals are for just 23 districts.
Georgia: 2,305,437 (14 Districts)
Republican: 1,349,076 58.5% 10 (11 candidates)
Democratic: 956,361 41.5% 4 (10 candidates)
Hawaii: 360,177 (2 Districts)
Democratic: 235,400 65.4% 2 (2 candidates)
Republican: 120,084 33.3% 0 (2 candidates)
Libertarian: 4,693 1.3% (1 candidate)
Constitutional Law - Burdick v. Takushi: Upholding Hawaii's Ban on Write-in Voting
Idaho: 435,157 (2 Districts)
Republican: 275,072 63.2% 2 (2 candidates)
Democratic: 160,078 36.8% 0 (2 candidates)
Write In: 7
Illiniois: 3,568,002 (18 Districts)
Democratic: 1,822,779 51.1% 10 (18 candidates)
Republican: 1,721,865 48.3% 8 (18 candidates)
Green: 23,145 (2 candidates)
Write In: 213
Indiana: 1,341,814 (9 Districts)
Republican: 788,762 58.8% 7 (9 candidates)
Democratic: 502,104 37.4% 2 (9 candidates)
Libertarian: 50,948 3.8% (8 candidates)
Iowa: 1,120,334 (4 Districts)
Republican: 595,865 53.2% 3 (4 candidates)
Democratic: 509,189 45.4% 1 (4 candidates)
Libertarian: 9,054 0.8% (1 candidate)
Independent: 4,360
Write In: 1,866
Kansas: 862,129(4 Districts)
Republican: 540,756 62.7% 4 (4 candidates)
Democratic: 311,530 36.1% 0 (4 candidates)
Libertarian: 9,791 1.1% (1 candidate)
Write In: 52 (incomplete)
Kentucky: 1,397,626 (6 Districts)
Republican: 887,157 63.5% 5 (6 candidates)
Democratic: 508,151 36.4% 1 (6 candidates)
Independent: 2,318
Louisiana: 1,407,791 (6 Districts) Note: Louisiana holds its primary on election day and the top two candidates run in a runoff if no candidate receives over 50% of the vote.
Republican: 883,649 62.8% 5 (including 2 runoff winners) (candidates in 5 districts)
Democratic: 392,876 27.9% 1 (candidates in 4 districts)
Libertarian: 84,942 6.0% (candidates in 5 districts)
Green: 1,655 (1 candidate)
Independent: 44,669
Maine: 592,371 (2 Districts)
Democratic: 305,242 51.5% 1 (2 candidates)
Republican: 228,071 38.5% 1 (2 candidates)
Independent: 58,747
Write In: 311
Maryland: 1,703,037 (8 Districts)
Democratic: 978,267 57.4% 7 (8 candidates)
Republican: 704,400 41.4% 1 (8 candidates)
Libertarian: 8,898 0.5% (2 candidates)
Green: 9,088 (2 candidates)
Write In: 2,384
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 136or142 on December 25, 2014, 05:22:02 PM
Massachusetts: 1,813,816 (9 Districts)
Democratic: 1,475,442 81.3% 9 (9 candidates)
Republican: 308,598 17.0% 0 (3 candidates)
Independent: 10,373
Write In: 19,403
Michigan: 3,089,477 (14 Districts)
Republican: 1,466,749 47.5% 9 (14 candidates)
Democratic: 1,519,030 49.2% 5 (14 candidates)
Libertarian: 53,711 1.7% (12 candidates)
Green: 23,088 (7 candidates)
Taxpayers: 10,904 (3 candidates)
Natural Law Party: 1,680 (1 candidate)
Independent: 12,874
Write In: 1,441
Minnesota: 1,963,539 (8 Districts)
Democratic: 985,760 50.2% 5 (8 candidates)
Republican: 913,539 46.5% 3 (8 candidates)
Independence Party: 50,836 (4 candidates)
Green: 11,450 (1 candidate)
Write In: 1,954
Missouri: 1,426,303 (8 Districts)
Republican: 838,283 58.8% 6 (8 candidates)
Democratic: 513,600 36.0% 2 (8 candidates)
Libertarian: 63,682 4.5% (8 candidates)
Constitution: 3,799 (1 candidate)
Independent: 6,821
Write In: 118
Mississippi: 626,279 (4 Districts)
Republican: 329,169 52.6% 3 (3 candidates)
Democratic: 230,014 36.7% 1 (4 candidates)
Libertarian: 7,303 1.2% (2 candidates)
Reform: 14,897 (4 candidates)
Independent: 44,896
While you can write-in votes in Mississippi, they don't really count. The only instance in which they would count is if someone on the ballot died.
So mounting a write-in campaign is a non-starter in Mississippi.
Montana: 367,963 (1 District)
Republican: 203,871 55.4% 1
Democratic: 148,690 40.4% 0
Libertarian: 15,402 4.2%
Nebraska: 535,072 (3 Districts)
Republican: 340,816 63.7% 2 (3 candidates)
Democratic: 185,234 34.6% 1 (3 candidates)
Libertarian: 9,021 1.7% (1 candidate)
Write In: 1 (incomplete)
Nevada: 543,009 (4 Districts)
Republican: 304,809 56.1% 3 (4 candidates)
Democratic: 210,147 38.7% 1 (4 candidates)
Libertarian: 8,302 1.5% (3 candidates)
Constitution: 16,770 (3 candidates) goes by the name of the Independent American Party in Nevada
Independent: 2,981
Nevada law prohibits write-in candidacies or write-in votes of any kind.
New Hampshire: 480,920 (2 Districts)
Democratic: 247,469 51.5% 1 (2 candidates)
Republican: 232,379 48.3% 1 (2 candidates)
Write In: 1,072
New Jersey: 1,821,365 (12 Districts)
Democratic: 914,172 50.2% 6 (12 candidates)
Republican: 877,265 48.2% 6 (12 candidates)
Libertarian: 4,854 0.3% (2 candidates)
Green: 890 (1 candidate)
D-R Party: 6,265 (5 candidates)
We Deserve Better: 1,784 (1 candidate)
Stop Boss Politics: 1,134 (1 candidate)
Change Is Needed: 1,103 (1 candidate)
Of the People: 634 (1 candidate)
American Labor Party: 501 (1 candidate)
Making Us Better: 471 (1 candidate)
For America: 2,435 (1 candidate)
Politicians are Crooks: 1,192 (1 candidate)
Wake Up U.S.A: 1,022 (1 candidate)
911 Truth Needed: 653 (1 candidate)
Seeking Inclusion: 1,715 (1 candidate)
Bullying Breaks Hearts: 1,237 (1 candidate)
Future Vision: 998 (1 candidate)
Legalize Marijuana: 1,330 (1 candidate)
Truth, Vision, Hope: 567 (1 candidate)
Start the Conversation: 531 (1 candidate)
Independent: 612
New Mexico: 511,885 (3 Districts)
Democratic: 271,222 53.0% 2 (3 candidates)
Republican: 240,542 47.0% 1 (3 candidates)
Write In: 121
New York: 3,651,707 (27 Districts)
Democratic: 2,009,444 55.0% 18 (26 candidates)
Republican: 1,554,274 42.6% 9 (18 candidates)
Conservative: 37,622 (6 candidates)
Green: 34,580 (5 candidates)
Flourish Every Person: 554 (1 candidate)
Independent: 8,164
Write In: 7,069
North Carolina: 2,807,998 (13 Districts)
Republican: 1,555,364 55.4% 10 (13 candidates)
Democratic: 1,234,027 43.9% 3 (12 candidates)
Libertarian: 7,850 0.3% (1 candidate)
Write In: 10,757
North Dakota: 248,670 (1 District)
Republican: 138,100 55.5% 1
Democratic: 95,678 38.5% 0
Libertarian: 14,531 5.8%
Write In: 361
Ohio: 3,000,161 (16 Districts)
Republican: 1,770,923 59.0% 12 (16 candidates)
Democratic: 1,179,587 39.3% 4 (15 candidates)
Libertarian: 23,937 0.8% (3 candidates)
Green: 15,213 (2 candidates)
Constititution: 10,257 (1 candidate)
Write In: 244
Oklahoma: 653,413 (5 Districts)
Republican: 457,613 70.0% 5 (5 candidates)
Democratic: 174,022 26.6% (4 candidate)
Independent: 21,778
Note: 1 Republican incumbent faced no opposition and the race did not appear on the ballot.
Write-in voting is not permitted by law in Oklahoma
Oregon: 1,450,702 (5 Districts)
Democratic: 778,139 53.6% 4 (5 candidates)
Republican: 582,909 40.2% 1 (5 candidates)
Libertarian: 37,959 2.6% (5 candidates)
Green: 30,132 (3 candidates)
Constitution: 6,208 (1 candidate)
Independent: 11,683
Write In; 3,672
Pennsylvania: 3,330,804 (18 Districts)
Republican: 1,833,205 55.0% 13 (17 candidates)
Democratic: 1,467,594 44.1% 5 (16 candidates)
Independent: 22,734
Write In: 7,271 ( incomplete)
Rhode Island: 316,257 (2 Districts)
Democratic: 192,776 61.0% 2 (2 candidates)
Republican: 122,721 38.8% 0 (2 candidates)
Write In: 760
South Carolina: 1,155,782 (7 Districts)
Republican: 734,456 63.5% 6 (7 candidates)
Democratic: 382,208 33.1% 1 (5 candidates)
Libertarian: 25,145 2.2% (2 candidates)
Labor: 4,158 (1 candidate)
Write In: 9,815
South Dakota: 276,319 (1 District)
Republican: 183,834 66.5% 1
Democratic: 92,485 33.5% 0
South Dakota law does not allow write-in candidates.
Tennessee: 1,371,161 (9 Districts)
Republican: 848,846 61.9% 7 (9 candidates)
Democratic: 448,421 32.7% 2 (8 candidates)
Libertarian: 9,241 0.7% (2 candidates)
Green: 13,902 (2 candidates)
Constitution: 4,451 (1 candidate)
Independent: 46,282
Write In: 18
Texas: 4,453,499 (36 Districts)
Republican: 2,684,592 60.3% 25 (30 candidates)
Democratic: 1,474,016 33.1% 11 (29 candidates)
Libertarian: 225,178 5.1% (32 candidates)
Green: 61,699 (8 candidates)
Independent: 7,960
Write In: 54
Utah: 565,970 (4 Districts)
Republican: 351,034 62.0% 4 (4 candidates)
Democratic: 183,491 32.4% 0 (4 candidates)
Libertarian: 6,198 1.1% (2 candidates)
Independent American Party: 13,086 (4 candidates)
Constitution: 5,933 (2 candidates)
Independent: 5,831
Write In: 397
Vermont: 191,504 (1 District)
Democratic: 123,349 64.4% 1
Republican: 59,432 31.0% 0
Liberty Union Party: 2,071
Independent: 6,459
Write In: 193
Virginia: 2,135,331 (11 Districts)
Republican: 1,143,747 53.6% 8 (10 candidates)
Democratic: 845,939 39.6% 3 (9 candidates)
Libertarian: 47,038 2.2% (7 candidates)
Green (and Independent Green): 32,401 (6 candidates)
Independent: 47,274
Write In: 18,932
Washington: 2,029,600 (10 Districts) Note: The Washington General is a runoff election where the top two candidates in the primary run irrespective of party
Democratic: 1,047,747 51.6% 6 (candidates in 9 Districts)
Republican: 981,853 48.4% 4 (candidates in 10 Districts)
In one district Republicans ran against each other
Write-in votes are not tabulated for individual write-in candidates unless enough write-in votes are cast to potentially change the outcome of the race.
West Virginia: 439,239 (3 Districts)
Republican: 242,823 55.3% 3 (3 candidates)
Democratic: 182,484 41.5% 0 (3 candidates)
Libertarian: 7,682 1.7% (1 candidate)
Independent: 6,250
Wisconsin: 2,355.580 (8 Districts)
Republican: 1,233,336 52.4% 5 (8 candidates)
Democratic: 1,102,581 46.8% 3 (8 candidates)
Libertarian: 6,865 (1 candidate)
Green: 3,686 (1 candidate)
Independent: 7,002
Write In: 2,110
Wyoming: 165,100 (1 District)
Republican: 113,038 68.5% 1
Democratic: 37,803 22.9% 0
Libertarian: 7,112 4.3%
Constitution: 6,749
Write In: 398
More results to come.
Democratic: 1,475,442 81.3% 9 (9 candidates)
Republican: 308,598 17.0% 0 (3 candidates)
Independent: 10,373
Write In: 19,403
Michigan: 3,089,477 (14 Districts)
Republican: 1,466,749 47.5% 9 (14 candidates)
Democratic: 1,519,030 49.2% 5 (14 candidates)
Libertarian: 53,711 1.7% (12 candidates)
Green: 23,088 (7 candidates)
Taxpayers: 10,904 (3 candidates)
Natural Law Party: 1,680 (1 candidate)
Independent: 12,874
Write In: 1,441
Minnesota: 1,963,539 (8 Districts)
Democratic: 985,760 50.2% 5 (8 candidates)
Republican: 913,539 46.5% 3 (8 candidates)
Independence Party: 50,836 (4 candidates)
Green: 11,450 (1 candidate)
Write In: 1,954
Missouri: 1,426,303 (8 Districts)
Republican: 838,283 58.8% 6 (8 candidates)
Democratic: 513,600 36.0% 2 (8 candidates)
Libertarian: 63,682 4.5% (8 candidates)
Constitution: 3,799 (1 candidate)
Independent: 6,821
Write In: 118
Mississippi: 626,279 (4 Districts)
Republican: 329,169 52.6% 3 (3 candidates)
Democratic: 230,014 36.7% 1 (4 candidates)
Libertarian: 7,303 1.2% (2 candidates)
Reform: 14,897 (4 candidates)
Independent: 44,896
While you can write-in votes in Mississippi, they don't really count. The only instance in which they would count is if someone on the ballot died.
So mounting a write-in campaign is a non-starter in Mississippi.
Montana: 367,963 (1 District)
Republican: 203,871 55.4% 1
Democratic: 148,690 40.4% 0
Libertarian: 15,402 4.2%
Nebraska: 535,072 (3 Districts)
Republican: 340,816 63.7% 2 (3 candidates)
Democratic: 185,234 34.6% 1 (3 candidates)
Libertarian: 9,021 1.7% (1 candidate)
Write In: 1 (incomplete)
Nevada: 543,009 (4 Districts)
Republican: 304,809 56.1% 3 (4 candidates)
Democratic: 210,147 38.7% 1 (4 candidates)
Libertarian: 8,302 1.5% (3 candidates)
Constitution: 16,770 (3 candidates) goes by the name of the Independent American Party in Nevada
Independent: 2,981
Nevada law prohibits write-in candidacies or write-in votes of any kind.
New Hampshire: 480,920 (2 Districts)
Democratic: 247,469 51.5% 1 (2 candidates)
Republican: 232,379 48.3% 1 (2 candidates)
Write In: 1,072
New Jersey: 1,821,365 (12 Districts)
Democratic: 914,172 50.2% 6 (12 candidates)
Republican: 877,265 48.2% 6 (12 candidates)
Libertarian: 4,854 0.3% (2 candidates)
Green: 890 (1 candidate)
D-R Party: 6,265 (5 candidates)
We Deserve Better: 1,784 (1 candidate)
Stop Boss Politics: 1,134 (1 candidate)
Change Is Needed: 1,103 (1 candidate)
Of the People: 634 (1 candidate)
American Labor Party: 501 (1 candidate)
Making Us Better: 471 (1 candidate)
For America: 2,435 (1 candidate)
Politicians are Crooks: 1,192 (1 candidate)
Wake Up U.S.A: 1,022 (1 candidate)
911 Truth Needed: 653 (1 candidate)
Seeking Inclusion: 1,715 (1 candidate)
Bullying Breaks Hearts: 1,237 (1 candidate)
Future Vision: 998 (1 candidate)
Legalize Marijuana: 1,330 (1 candidate)
Truth, Vision, Hope: 567 (1 candidate)
Start the Conversation: 531 (1 candidate)
Independent: 612
New Mexico: 511,885 (3 Districts)
Democratic: 271,222 53.0% 2 (3 candidates)
Republican: 240,542 47.0% 1 (3 candidates)
Write In: 121
New York: 3,651,707 (27 Districts)
Democratic: 2,009,444 55.0% 18 (26 candidates)
Republican: 1,554,274 42.6% 9 (18 candidates)
Conservative: 37,622 (6 candidates)
Green: 34,580 (5 candidates)
Flourish Every Person: 554 (1 candidate)
Independent: 8,164
Write In: 7,069
North Carolina: 2,807,998 (13 Districts)
Republican: 1,555,364 55.4% 10 (13 candidates)
Democratic: 1,234,027 43.9% 3 (12 candidates)
Libertarian: 7,850 0.3% (1 candidate)
Write In: 10,757
North Dakota: 248,670 (1 District)
Republican: 138,100 55.5% 1
Democratic: 95,678 38.5% 0
Libertarian: 14,531 5.8%
Write In: 361
Ohio: 3,000,161 (16 Districts)
Republican: 1,770,923 59.0% 12 (16 candidates)
Democratic: 1,179,587 39.3% 4 (15 candidates)
Libertarian: 23,937 0.8% (3 candidates)
Green: 15,213 (2 candidates)
Constititution: 10,257 (1 candidate)
Write In: 244
Oklahoma: 653,413 (5 Districts)
Republican: 457,613 70.0% 5 (5 candidates)
Democratic: 174,022 26.6% (4 candidate)
Independent: 21,778
Note: 1 Republican incumbent faced no opposition and the race did not appear on the ballot.
Write-in voting is not permitted by law in Oklahoma
Oregon: 1,450,702 (5 Districts)
Democratic: 778,139 53.6% 4 (5 candidates)
Republican: 582,909 40.2% 1 (5 candidates)
Libertarian: 37,959 2.6% (5 candidates)
Green: 30,132 (3 candidates)
Constitution: 6,208 (1 candidate)
Independent: 11,683
Write In; 3,672
Pennsylvania: 3,330,804 (18 Districts)
Republican: 1,833,205 55.0% 13 (17 candidates)
Democratic: 1,467,594 44.1% 5 (16 candidates)
Independent: 22,734
Write In: 7,271 ( incomplete)
Rhode Island: 316,257 (2 Districts)
Democratic: 192,776 61.0% 2 (2 candidates)
Republican: 122,721 38.8% 0 (2 candidates)
Write In: 760
South Carolina: 1,155,782 (7 Districts)
Republican: 734,456 63.5% 6 (7 candidates)
Democratic: 382,208 33.1% 1 (5 candidates)
Libertarian: 25,145 2.2% (2 candidates)
Labor: 4,158 (1 candidate)
Write In: 9,815
South Dakota: 276,319 (1 District)
Republican: 183,834 66.5% 1
Democratic: 92,485 33.5% 0
South Dakota law does not allow write-in candidates.
Tennessee: 1,371,161 (9 Districts)
Republican: 848,846 61.9% 7 (9 candidates)
Democratic: 448,421 32.7% 2 (8 candidates)
Libertarian: 9,241 0.7% (2 candidates)
Green: 13,902 (2 candidates)
Constitution: 4,451 (1 candidate)
Independent: 46,282
Write In: 18
Texas: 4,453,499 (36 Districts)
Republican: 2,684,592 60.3% 25 (30 candidates)
Democratic: 1,474,016 33.1% 11 (29 candidates)
Libertarian: 225,178 5.1% (32 candidates)
Green: 61,699 (8 candidates)
Independent: 7,960
Write In: 54
Utah: 565,970 (4 Districts)
Republican: 351,034 62.0% 4 (4 candidates)
Democratic: 183,491 32.4% 0 (4 candidates)
Libertarian: 6,198 1.1% (2 candidates)
Independent American Party: 13,086 (4 candidates)
Constitution: 5,933 (2 candidates)
Independent: 5,831
Write In: 397
Vermont: 191,504 (1 District)
Democratic: 123,349 64.4% 1
Republican: 59,432 31.0% 0
Liberty Union Party: 2,071
Independent: 6,459
Write In: 193
Virginia: 2,135,331 (11 Districts)
Republican: 1,143,747 53.6% 8 (10 candidates)
Democratic: 845,939 39.6% 3 (9 candidates)
Libertarian: 47,038 2.2% (7 candidates)
Green (and Independent Green): 32,401 (6 candidates)
Independent: 47,274
Write In: 18,932
Washington: 2,029,600 (10 Districts) Note: The Washington General is a runoff election where the top two candidates in the primary run irrespective of party
Democratic: 1,047,747 51.6% 6 (candidates in 9 Districts)
Republican: 981,853 48.4% 4 (candidates in 10 Districts)
In one district Republicans ran against each other
Write-in votes are not tabulated for individual write-in candidates unless enough write-in votes are cast to potentially change the outcome of the race.
West Virginia: 439,239 (3 Districts)
Republican: 242,823 55.3% 3 (3 candidates)
Democratic: 182,484 41.5% 0 (3 candidates)
Libertarian: 7,682 1.7% (1 candidate)
Independent: 6,250
Wisconsin: 2,355.580 (8 Districts)
Republican: 1,233,336 52.4% 5 (8 candidates)
Democratic: 1,102,581 46.8% 3 (8 candidates)
Libertarian: 6,865 (1 candidate)
Green: 3,686 (1 candidate)
Independent: 7,002
Write In: 2,110
Wyoming: 165,100 (1 District)
Republican: 113,038 68.5% 1
Democratic: 37,803 22.9% 0
Libertarian: 7,112 4.3%
Constitution: 6,749
Write In: 398
More results to come.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 25, 2014, 06:50:22 PM
^ This would be the map, then:
(
)
I actually know why North Dakota wasn't a blowout this year. George Sinner was the former governor of North Dakota from 1985-1992. He's 86 years old.
(
I actually know why North Dakota wasn't a blowout this year. George Sinner was the former governor of North Dakota from 1985-1992. He's 86 years old.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on December 25, 2014, 06:56:49 PM
I actually know why North Dakota wasn't a blowout this year. George Sinner was the former governor of North Dakota from 1985-1992. He's 86 years old.
Yeah, but he wasn't the candidate -- the Democratic candidate in 2014 was his son, also named George Sinner. (To distinguish them in North Dakota, the father is called George A. Sinner, while the son is George B. Sinner).
Also, pleasantly surprised that the GOP won the PA House vote by double-digits. I think it was lost in 2012, so that's nice to see.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on December 25, 2014, 07:49:43 PM
I actually know why North Dakota wasn't a blowout this year. George Sinner was the former governor of North Dakota from 1985-1992. He's 86 years old.
Yeah, but he wasn't the candidate -- the Democratic candidate in 2014 was his son, also named George Sinner.
Of course :P
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Boston Bread on December 25, 2014, 09:39:53 PM
The house map looks like it could be a presidential one. 2014 and 2012 must be the first time you could say that.
I think generic D from MA and Kasich/Sandoval could very well produce this map in 2016.
I think generic D from MA and Kasich/Sandoval could very well produce this map in 2016.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Ebowed on December 28, 2014, 07:18:13 AM
Note: in Florida 12,14,25,27 and Oklahoma 1, the Representatives were reelected without opposition and their races did not appear on the ballot. Florida 12,25,27 and Oklahoma 1 are represented by Republicans while Florida 14 is represented by a Democrat.
Interesting. Do those states have laws permitting the elections to just be "assumed" if only one candidate declares?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: SNJ1985 on December 31, 2014, 09:03:25 PM
Well, it seems as if Cochran's primary reachout effort impacted the GE after all...
()
()
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 136or142 on January 01, 2015, 03:24:06 AM
California:
Party DEMOCRATIC REPUBLICAN
Last Election 38 15
Seats Won 39 14
Net Change +1 -1
Funny result because the Republicans were close in 8 districts (less than 6%) and lost every one of them. The only district the Democrats had a shot at gaining, they won.
Party DEMOCRATIC REPUBLICAN
Last Election 38 15
Seats Won 39 14
Net Change +1 -1
Funny result because the Republicans were close in 8 districts (less than 6%) and lost every one of them. The only district the Democrats had a shot at gaining, they won.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on January 01, 2015, 06:31:54 AM
Well, it seems as if Cochran's primary reachout effort impacted the GE after all...
()
()
Hmm, that's pretty crazy. I wonder what the result would've ended up being if Cochran's AA support stayed the same as in 08 (but with the rest of the state still swinging against him).
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: nclib on January 01, 2015, 12:11:41 PM
Well, it seems as if Cochran's primary reachout effort impacted the GE after all...
()
()
Hmm, that's pretty crazy. I wonder what the result would've ended up being if Cochran's AA support stayed the same as in 08 (but with the rest of the state still swinging against him).
The Delta results could also be caused by turnout. Childers won more whites in his CD and possibly MS-4 though the latter could be McDaniel supporters not voting for Cochran, particularly McDaniel's home base of Jones County (the darkest red in the SE).
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on January 02, 2015, 01:52:48 AM
^ Turnout statewide was down 50.85% (!) from 2014.
Here's a 'turnout trend' map; (http://www.openheatmap.com/view.html?map=UsufructsMarchantiaceaeMotsers) red counties had dropoffs less than the state as a whole, blue counties more:
()
Turnout was down the most in the delta, but there were a few other areas with really step decreases.
Here's a 'turnout trend' map; (http://www.openheatmap.com/view.html?map=UsufructsMarchantiaceaeMotsers) red counties had dropoffs less than the state as a whole, blue counties more:
()
Turnout was down the most in the delta, but there were a few other areas with really step decreases.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on January 02, 2015, 07:34:28 AM
House Vote by Region:
(
)
Northeast:
Democratic: 8,489,068 (55.5%)
Republican: 6,522,615 (42.7%)
Total Votes: 15,291,808
South:
Republican: 15,041,598 (58.6%)
Democratic: 9,544,530 (37.2%)
Total Votes: 25,659,862
Midwest:
Republican: 10,521,325 (53.2%)
Democratic: 8,813,907 (44.6%)
Total Votes: 19,770,043
West:
Democratic: 8,769,339 (50.7%)
Republican: 8,083,790 (46.7%)
Total Votes: 17,308,545
Note: Louisiana's votes in LA-05 and LA-06 are the ones on election day, not the runoffs
(
Northeast:
Democratic: 8,489,068 (55.5%)
Republican: 6,522,615 (42.7%)
Total Votes: 15,291,808
South:
Republican: 15,041,598 (58.6%)
Democratic: 9,544,530 (37.2%)
Total Votes: 25,659,862
Midwest:
Republican: 10,521,325 (53.2%)
Democratic: 8,813,907 (44.6%)
Total Votes: 19,770,043
West:
Democratic: 8,769,339 (50.7%)
Republican: 8,083,790 (46.7%)
Total Votes: 17,308,545
Note: Louisiana's votes in LA-05 and LA-06 are the ones on election day, not the runoffs
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on January 02, 2015, 07:47:11 AM
A few unimportant but interesting thing I noticed while zooming through the house races.
- Turnout was lowest in states where there was nothing going on (Indiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, etc)
- In some states (Wisconsin, New Hampshire for instance) the congressional vote literally is the same as the margin in Senate or Governors races
- Republicans now represent a 70% Hispanic seat (TX-23) and a 72% Hispanic seat (CA-21)
- Alaska turnout was actually pretty high, and the results weren't very Republican (Young only winning by 10 points, Parnell being defeated, etc)
- Massachusetts congressional vote literally >80% D. That's what happens when only 3 Republicans (out of 9 districts) even contest the seats.
- Turnout was lowest in states where there was nothing going on (Indiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, etc)
- In some states (Wisconsin, New Hampshire for instance) the congressional vote literally is the same as the margin in Senate or Governors races
- Republicans now represent a 70% Hispanic seat (TX-23) and a 72% Hispanic seat (CA-21)
- Alaska turnout was actually pretty high, and the results weren't very Republican (Young only winning by 10 points, Parnell being defeated, etc)
- Massachusetts congressional vote literally >80% D. That's what happens when only 3 Republicans (out of 9 districts) even contest the seats.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Senator Cris on January 02, 2015, 08:05:43 AM
House Vote by Region:
()
Northeast:
Democratic: 8,489,068 (55.5%)
Republican: 6,522,615 (42.7%)
Total Votes: 15,291,808
South:
Republican: 15,041,598 (58.6%)
Democratic: 9,544,530 (37.2%)
Total Votes: 25,659,862
Midwest:
Republican: 10,521,325 (53.2%)
Democratic: 8,813,907 (44.6%)
Total Votes: 19,770,043
West:
Democratic: 8,769,339 (50.7%)
Republican: 8,083,790 (46.7%)
Total Votes: 17,308,545
Note: Louisiana's votes in LA-05 and LA-06 are the ones on election day, not the runoffs
(
Northeast:
Democratic: 8,489,068 (55.5%)
Republican: 6,522,615 (42.7%)
Total Votes: 15,291,808
South:
Republican: 15,041,598 (58.6%)
Democratic: 9,544,530 (37.2%)
Total Votes: 25,659,862
Midwest:
Republican: 10,521,325 (53.2%)
Democratic: 8,813,907 (44.6%)
Total Votes: 19,770,043
West:
Democratic: 8,769,339 (50.7%)
Republican: 8,083,790 (46.7%)
Total Votes: 17,308,545
Note: Louisiana's votes in LA-05 and LA-06 are the ones on election day, not the runoffs
It would be interesting making comparisons between 2014 and 2012, 2010, 2008, 2006.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 136or142 on January 02, 2015, 04:39:03 PM
House Vote by Region:
()
Northeast:
Democratic: 8,489,068 (55.5%)
Republican: 6,522,615 (42.7%)
Total Votes: 15,291,808
South:
Republican: 15,041,598 (58.6%)
Democratic: 9,544,530 (37.2%)
Total Votes: 25,659,862
Midwest:
Republican: 10,521,325 (53.2%)
Democratic: 8,813,907 (44.6%)
Total Votes: 19,770,043
West:
Democratic: 8,769,339 (50.7%)
Republican: 8,083,790 (46.7%)
Total Votes: 17,308,545
Note: Louisiana's votes in LA-05 and LA-06 are the ones on election day, not the runoffs
(
Northeast:
Democratic: 8,489,068 (55.5%)
Republican: 6,522,615 (42.7%)
Total Votes: 15,291,808
South:
Republican: 15,041,598 (58.6%)
Democratic: 9,544,530 (37.2%)
Total Votes: 25,659,862
Midwest:
Republican: 10,521,325 (53.2%)
Democratic: 8,813,907 (44.6%)
Total Votes: 19,770,043
West:
Democratic: 8,769,339 (50.7%)
Republican: 8,083,790 (46.7%)
Total Votes: 17,308,545
Note: Louisiana's votes in LA-05 and LA-06 are the ones on election day, not the runoffs
Which states do you count in which regions? Although most are pretty obvious, there are a number of states that could go into two.
Turnout was also very low in the big states of California, New York and Texas (I believe all 3 were between 30-33%)
Edit: forgive me, I didn't notice the map earlier. Well, being a Canadian, I barely know which state is which on the map.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Ebowed on January 03, 2015, 04:24:16 PM
I thought the number of blank ballots in Macon county, AL was amusing.
Senate
Jeff Sessions (R) - 1,133 (89.92%)
Write-ins - 127 (10.08%)
Governor
Griffith (D) - 4,830 (85.31%)
Bentley (R) - 829 (14.64%)
Write-ins - 3
Senate
Jeff Sessions (R) - 1,133 (89.92%)
Write-ins - 127 (10.08%)
Governor
Griffith (D) - 4,830 (85.31%)
Bentley (R) - 829 (14.64%)
Write-ins - 3
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 136or142 on January 04, 2015, 12:54:17 AM
There were between 300,000 and 400,000 blank ballots for the Senate race in Alabama. Forgive me please if this site is where I got that information from.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: ElectionsGuy on January 04, 2015, 09:22:09 AM
Only 5 Senate races this cycle were less Republican than 2008, they are - KS, MN, MS, OR, and TN. In KS, MS, and TN, incumbents had primary vulnerabilities. In MN and OR, its primarily because Franken and Merkley were defeating incumbents in '08.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on January 18, 2015, 05:20:10 PM
The below shows just how "good" the "non-partisan" commission's Democratic gerrymander was in AZ:
Arizona: 1,467,617 (9 Districts)
Republican: 817,178 55.7% 5 (8 Candidates)
Democratic: 577,947 39.4% 4 (8 candidates)
Libertarian: 23,767 1.6% (3 candidates)
American Electors: 44,924 (2 candidates)
Independent: 3,496
Write In: 305
It strikes me as the biggest differential of any of the 50 states. I don't think anywhere the minority party got that high a percentage of the CD's with around 40% of the vote. If AZ-02 has swung the other way, it would have been even more spectacular.
Arizona: 1,467,617 (9 Districts)
Republican: 817,178 55.7% 5 (8 Candidates)
Democratic: 577,947 39.4% 4 (8 candidates)
Libertarian: 23,767 1.6% (3 candidates)
American Electors: 44,924 (2 candidates)
Independent: 3,496
Write In: 305
It strikes me as the biggest differential of any of the 50 states. I don't think anywhere the minority party got that high a percentage of the CD's with around 40% of the vote. If AZ-02 has swung the other way, it would have been even more spectacular.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Knives on January 18, 2015, 05:24:59 PM
The below shows just how "good" the "non-partisan" commission's Democratic gerrymander was in AZ:
Arizona: 1,467,617 (9 Districts)
Republican: 817,178 55.7% 5 (8 Candidates)
Democratic: 577,947 39.4% 4 (8 candidates)
Libertarian: 23,767 1.6% (3 candidates)
American Electors: 44,924 (2 candidates)
Independent: 3,496
Write In: 305
It strikes me as the biggest differential of any of the 50 states. I don't think anywhere the minority party got that high a percentage of the CD's with around 40% of the vote. If AZ-02 has swung the other way, it would have been even more spectacular.
Arizona: 1,467,617 (9 Districts)
Republican: 817,178 55.7% 5 (8 Candidates)
Democratic: 577,947 39.4% 4 (8 candidates)
Libertarian: 23,767 1.6% (3 candidates)
American Electors: 44,924 (2 candidates)
Independent: 3,496
Write In: 305
It strikes me as the biggest differential of any of the 50 states. I don't think anywhere the minority party got that high a percentage of the CD's with around 40% of the vote. If AZ-02 has swung the other way, it would have been even more spectacular.
uhhh, the problem isn't the map just that of the 4 competitive districts, the Dems control 3 and these were created on geographical boundaries that reflect the interests of the area rather than packing in like minded voters.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on January 18, 2015, 05:34:09 PM
^ Turnout is also much lower in the Democratic seats. Going off my Governor by CD chart, (http://i1132.photobucket.com/albums/m576/MilesC56/AZGOVCD_zpsf2281f56.png) CD6 (Safe D) cast almost three times as many votes as CD7 (Safe D).
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: publicunofficial on January 19, 2015, 03:00:07 AM
Also doesn't help that Trent Franks was unopposed, and the other 3 Republican incumbents blew their competition out of the water, driving up the overall Republican vote share.
Seriously, the fact that Republicans think the Arizona map is such an affront to democracy over any other map is so hypocritical and blind that it blows my mind.
Seriously, the fact that Republicans think the Arizona map is such an affront to democracy over any other map is so hypocritical and blind that it blows my mind.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Vosem on January 19, 2015, 02:12:31 PM
Seriously, the fact that Republicans think the Arizona map is such an affront to democracy over any other map is so hypocritical and blind that it blows my mind.
What frustrates Republicans about the Arizona map is that it was drawn by an independent commission with a clearly Democratic slant in mind. There are much more virulent Democratic gerrymanders out there (Illinois, Maryland) but those were drawn openly by Democratic legislatures. The Arizona map was intended by the system to be a neutral map, and it is clearly not.
The same is true of the California map, but Republicans are more muted in their criticism there since the alternative is a full Democratic gerrymander and something like 6 Republican seats left in the state.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Joe Republic on January 19, 2015, 02:26:38 PM
The below shows just how "good" the "non-partisan" commission's Democratic gerrymander was in AZ:
Arizona: 1,467,617 (9 Districts)
Republican: 817,178 55.7% 5 (8 Candidates)
Democratic: 577,947 39.4% 4 (8 candidates)
Libertarian: 23,767 1.6% (3 candidates)
American Electors: 44,924 (2 candidates)
Independent: 3,496
Write In: 305
It strikes me as the biggest differential of any of the 50 states. I don't think anywhere the minority party got that high a percentage of the CD's with around 40% of the vote. If AZ-02 has swung the other way, it would have been even more spectacular.
Arizona: 1,467,617 (9 Districts)
Republican: 817,178 55.7% 5 (8 Candidates)
Democratic: 577,947 39.4% 4 (8 candidates)
Libertarian: 23,767 1.6% (3 candidates)
American Electors: 44,924 (2 candidates)
Independent: 3,496
Write In: 305
It strikes me as the biggest differential of any of the 50 states. I don't think anywhere the minority party got that high a percentage of the CD's with around 40% of the vote. If AZ-02 has swung the other way, it would have been even more spectacular.
40% of the vote equating to 44% of the seats is fairer than 33% of the seats. Yes, if AZ-2 had stayed Dem you'd have a reason to complain, but as it stands...
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Torie on January 20, 2015, 07:02:35 PM
The below shows just how "good" the "non-partisan" commission's Democratic gerrymander was in AZ:
Arizona: 1,467,617 (9 Districts)
Republican: 817,178 55.7% 5 (8 Candidates)
Democratic: 577,947 39.4% 4 (8 candidates)
Libertarian: 23,767 1.6% (3 candidates)
American Electors: 44,924 (2 candidates)
Independent: 3,496
Write In: 305
It strikes me as the biggest differential of any of the 50 states. I don't think anywhere the minority party got that high a percentage of the CD's with around 40% of the vote. If AZ-02 has swung the other way, it would have been even more spectacular.
Arizona: 1,467,617 (9 Districts)
Republican: 817,178 55.7% 5 (8 Candidates)
Democratic: 577,947 39.4% 4 (8 candidates)
Libertarian: 23,767 1.6% (3 candidates)
American Electors: 44,924 (2 candidates)
Independent: 3,496
Write In: 305
It strikes me as the biggest differential of any of the 50 states. I don't think anywhere the minority party got that high a percentage of the CD's with around 40% of the vote. If AZ-02 has swung the other way, it would have been even more spectacular.
40% of the vote equating to 44% of the seats is fairer than 33% of the seats. Yes, if AZ-2 had stayed Dem you'd have a reason to complain, but as it stands...
Except as the margin between the parities increases, the seats lost to the party at the short end, is an exponential one in a non partisan line drawing, not linear. That is why a "fair" map in Mass might net the Pubs one seat, two at best, far below the percentage of their vote. AZ was partisan in the sense in did a Dem gerrymander to offset the exponential effect. Make sense? The reason I bitch about the AZ map is that it was supposed to be non partisan. I don't begrudge what the Dems did in MD, effectively, and in Illinois, ineffectively, as it turned out because they got greedy, and ignored the trends.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: justfollowingtheelections on January 20, 2015, 07:08:55 PM
No one has the right to complain about Arizona's CDs when there's Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Mr.Phips on January 20, 2015, 07:44:05 PM
No one has the right to complain about Arizona's CDs when there's Ohio and Pennsylvania.
North Carolina too.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: MarkUterus on January 21, 2015, 08:26:22 AM
The difference is that AZ is supposed to use a non-partisan commission, and the spoils go to the victor in the NC, OH, and PA (and Dems had just as fair of a chance of winning control of those states' governorships and legislatures in 2010 as Republicans did). The 9th in particular is a joke (Mathis broke municipal boundaries all over the place in AZ-09 in order to twit a Democratic seat out of it; it's only R+1 because of McCain's home state bounce).
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Brittain33 on January 21, 2015, 01:24:11 PM
Republicans won control of the House by a significant margin despite getting 1 million fewer votes than Democrats in 2012. I am just not going to get upset about a couple of swing seats in AZ that could have been solid Republican when it's basically impossible for the current Democratic coalition to get control of government through democratic means.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on January 21, 2015, 03:06:20 PM
Republicans won control of the House by a significant margin despite getting 1 million fewer votes than Democrats in 2012. I am just not going to get upset about a couple of swing seats in AZ that could have been solid Republican when it's basically impossible for the current Democratic coalition to get control of government through democratic means.
Should a nonpartisan state redistricting commission be correcting for imbalances in other states?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Brittain33 on January 21, 2015, 04:08:48 PM
Republicans won control of the House by a significant margin despite getting 1 million fewer votes than Democrats in 2012. I am just not going to get upset about a couple of swing seats in AZ that could have been solid Republican when it's basically impossible for the current Democratic coalition to get control of government through democratic means.
Should a nonpartisan state redistricting commission be correcting for imbalances in other states?
I am just not going to get upset about a couple of swing seats in AZ that could have been solid Republican when it's basically impossible for the current Democratic coalition to get control of government through democratic means.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on January 22, 2015, 09:56:08 AM
Republicans won control of the House by a significant margin despite getting 1 million fewer votes than Democrats in 2012. I am just not going to get upset about a couple of swing seats in AZ that could have been solid Republican when it's basically impossible for the current Democratic coalition to get control of government through democratic means.
Should a nonpartisan state redistricting commission be correcting for imbalances in other states?
I am just not going to get upset about a couple of swing seats in AZ that could have been solid Republican when it's basically impossible for the current Democratic coalition to get control of government through democratic means.
If you don't want to address the question, you are free not to respond.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Brittain33 on January 22, 2015, 12:26:05 PM
Republicans won control of the House by a significant margin despite getting 1 million fewer votes than Democrats in 2012. I am just not going to get upset about a couple of swing seats in AZ that could have been solid Republican when it's basically impossible for the current Democratic coalition to get control of government through democratic means.
Should a nonpartisan state redistricting commission be correcting for imbalances in other states?
I am just not going to get upset about a couple of swing seats in AZ that could have been solid Republican when it's basically impossible for the current Democratic coalition to get control of government through democratic means.
If you don't want to address the question, you are free not to respond.
Thank you!
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: MarkUterus on January 22, 2015, 04:00:38 PM
Oh, how I hope the Massachusetts GOP can cross the necessary threshold in the State House so the State House couldn't override a potentially re-elected Charlie Baker's three wonderful gerrymander vetoes. Your smugness would go away, quickly.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: smoltchanov on January 23, 2015, 01:00:55 AM
Oh, how I hope the Massachusetts GOP can cross the necessary threshold in the State House so the State House couldn't override a potentially re-elected Charlie Baker's three wonderful gerrymander vetoes. Your smugness would go away, quickly.
Almost impossible. Republicans need to have 14 seats in state Senate or 54 in state House for that. Even after relatively good 2014 they now have 6 and 35.....
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on January 27, 2015, 02:24:29 AM
I applied a uniform swing to Obama's 2012 performance so that he would have won by the same (two-party) margin as Warner. The southwest clearly was the biggest thing that saved Warner; he did almost 10% better than Obama's baseline in VA-09:
()
If Warner matched Obama in VA-09, his statewide lead would be cut to just under 6K votes, down from 17K.
()
If Warner matched Obama in VA-09, his statewide lead would be cut to just under 6K votes, down from 17K.
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: IceSpear on January 27, 2015, 12:14:45 PM
If Warner matched Obama in VA-09, his statewide lead would be cut to just under 6K votes, down from 17K.
Wouldn't that mean it didn't save him?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on January 28, 2015, 02:25:23 AM
If Warner matched Obama in VA-09, his statewide lead would be cut to just under 6K votes, down from 17K.
Wouldn't that mean it didn't save him?
Title: Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results
Post by: Miles on January 28, 2015, 05:22:38 AM
^ I guess the point I was trying to make is that the southwest propped Warner up the most.