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Election Archive => 2014 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Miles on November 01, 2014, 07:11:51 pm



Title: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: Miles on November 01, 2014, 07:11:51 pm
Link coming.

Landrieu- 43%
Cassidy- 35%
Maness- 15%

Cassidy- 48%
Landrieu- 47%


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary
Post by: morgieb on November 01, 2014, 07:12:35 pm
Runoff figures?


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary
Post by: Maxwell on November 01, 2014, 07:13:10 pm
That ain't good numbers for her in the primary.


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 01, 2014, 07:13:16 pm
Cassidy leads 48-47 in the runoff.


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 01, 2014, 07:14:03 pm
Those are some startlingly good numbers for Landrieu in the runoff. Could she work a miracle yet again?


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: morgieb on November 01, 2014, 07:15:04 pm
Oooh, closer than I imagined.


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 01, 2014, 07:16:44 pm
Those are some startlingly good numbers for Landrieu in the runoff. Could she work a miracle yet again?

...the numbers are contingent on the December electorate being the same as this Tuesday's. And it obviously won't be.


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: Eraserhead on November 01, 2014, 08:01:31 pm
Those are some startlingly good numbers for Landrieu in the runoff. Could she work a miracle yet again?

I think she will.


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on November 01, 2014, 08:03:28 pm
Those are some startlingly good numbers for Landrieu in the runoff. Could she work a miracle yet again?

I think she will.
She definitely can, but it will likely require runoff turnout to be just like November turnout, which is hard to see.


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: old timey villain on November 01, 2014, 08:04:48 pm
Can someone explain to me why there's such a big discrepancy between the numbers in the primary and runoff elections?? I can't say I'm too knowledgable about Louisiana elections. Will this runoff be similar to the one we will likely see in Georgia?


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: Clarko95 on November 01, 2014, 08:09:35 pm
Louisiana's going to be a nail-biter too, what a pleasant surprise. I hope she can pull this out again.


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary
Post by: Miles on November 01, 2014, 08:11:25 pm
New Poll: Louisiana Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-11-01 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=22220141101108)

Summary: D: 43%, R: 35%, I: 15%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/LAResults.pdf)


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 01, 2014, 09:11:27 pm
Can someone explain to me why there's such a big discrepancy between the numbers in the primary and runoff elections?? I can't say I'm too knowledgable about Louisiana elections. Will this runoff be similar to the one we will likely see in Georgia?

Because Cassidy and Maness are both Republicans. Their share of the vote combined makes 50%. Once Landrieu and Cassidy go to a runoff, Republicans  are united around Cassidy.


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: tmthforu94 on November 01, 2014, 09:11:29 pm
You screwed up the numbers


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: Free Bird on November 01, 2014, 09:13:26 pm
It's official. This PPP wave is junk. Absolutely no way Lanny is in the MoE  with all the trips she has made.


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 01, 2014, 11:31:23 pm
It's official. This PPP wave is junk. Absolutely no way Lanny is in the MoE  with all the trips she has made.

I see you're prepping the argument if the PPP numbers in the heavy contests out tomorrow show the Dems doing OK.

It's PPP(D) junk polls!!!!


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: Impeachment Inquiry on November 01, 2014, 11:41:01 pm
Not long ago, PPP was the gold standard when it was showing good results for Republicans, not that it's showing not so favorable results, it's back to being junk.


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: Mr. Illini on November 02, 2014, 12:38:43 am
Much better than I was expecting. She just may have a shot at this.


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 02, 2014, 12:42:13 am
I think she has a 50/50 chance if Senate control is settled in November.  If the run-off determines control, she is done.


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on November 02, 2014, 01:09:55 am
That ain't good numbers for her in the primary.

Who cares? In 1996 and 2002, a majority of the first round votes were for Republicans. She won the second round.


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: dmmidmi on November 02, 2014, 06:15:09 am
If anybody is going to pull off the upset of the cycle, it's going to be her.


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: President von Cat on November 02, 2014, 09:49:49 am
Those are some startlingly good numbers for Landrieu in the runoff. Could she work a miracle yet again?

...the numbers are contingent on the December electorate being the same as this Tuesday's. And it obviously won't be.

Should we really be that dismissive though? Underestimating minority turnout in 2012 didn't turn out to be such a wise decision..


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: Miles on November 02, 2014, 09:51:04 am
Those are some startlingly good numbers for Landrieu in the runoff. Could she work a miracle yet again?

...the numbers are contingent on the December electorate being the same as this Tuesday's. And it obviously won't be.

Should we really be that dismissive though? Underestimating minority turnout in 2012 didn't turn out to be such a wise decision..

Yep. I wasn't even expecting LA to swing to Obama.


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 02, 2014, 11:08:47 am
Those are some startlingly good numbers for Landrieu in the runoff. Could she work a miracle yet again?

...the numbers are contingent on the December electorate being the same as this Tuesday's. And it obviously won't be.

Should we really be that dismissive though? Underestimating minority turnout in 2012 didn't turn out to be such a wise decision..

...which didn't include runoffs so talk about a completely pointless post.


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: Vosem on November 02, 2014, 11:24:37 am
Looks totally reasonable. Landrieu is a skilled politician and will be able to keep the runoff close, but unless the atmosphere changes a great deal in the next month, I don't think she can win it. Even with the inflated minority November turnout she's still only hitting 47%.


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: Impeachment Inquiry on November 02, 2014, 11:35:03 am
At the risk of being called names, I'm going to say it's not wise to underestimate Landrieu. Even if you hate Landrieu, you have to admit that she still has a chance, as she's been able to win before.


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on November 02, 2014, 08:17:33 pm
Those are some startlingly good numbers for Landrieu in the runoff. Could she work a miracle yet again?

...the numbers are contingent on the December electorate being the same as this Tuesday's. And it obviously won't be.

Should we really be that dismissive though? Underestimating minority turnout in 2012 didn't turn out to be such a wise decision..

...which didn't include runoffs so talk about a completely pointless post.

In 2002, minority turnout didn't drop out during the run off Phil.


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: KCDem on November 02, 2014, 08:32:46 pm
Those are some startlingly good numbers for Landrieu in the runoff. Could she work a miracle yet again?

...the numbers are contingent on the December electorate being the same as this Tuesday's. And it obviously won't be.

Should we really be that dismissive though? Underestimating minority turnout in 2012 didn't turn out to be such a wise decision..

...which didn't include runoffs so talk about a completely pointless post.

In 2002, minority turnout didn't drop out during the run off Phil.

Don't try to reason with him, he doesn't live in reality.


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: Badger on November 02, 2014, 08:52:42 pm
Besides, he's a Pennsylvania Republican. ::)

Anyhoo, Landrieu has proven she knows how to win runoffs, so being a point down is hope. Runoff election dynamics are not the same in LA as in GA.

That said, there's a serious chance depending on the outcomes in CO, IA, AK, and KS that her (and Nunn's) runoff's could decide control of the Senate. In which case she goes from a fighting chance to probably screwed.


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 02, 2014, 09:49:20 pm
Those are some startlingly good numbers for Landrieu in the runoff. Could she work a miracle yet again?

...the numbers are contingent on the December electorate being the same as this Tuesday's. And it obviously won't be.

Should we really be that dismissive though? Underestimating minority turnout in 2012 didn't turn out to be such a wise decision..

...which didn't include runoffs so talk about a completely pointless post.

In 2002, minority turnout didn't drop out during the run off Phil.

I find that somewhat hard to believe and even if true, it's far more of an exception to the rule than the rule.


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 02, 2014, 09:57:46 pm
Those are some startlingly good numbers for Landrieu in the runoff. Could she work a miracle yet again?

...the numbers are contingent on the December electorate being the same as this Tuesday's. And it obviously won't be.

Should we really be that dismissive though? Underestimating minority turnout in 2012 didn't turn out to be such a wise decision..

...which didn't include runoffs so talk about a completely pointless post.

In 2002, minority turnout didn't drop out during the run off Phil.

I find that somewhat hard to believe and even if true, it's far more of an exception to the rule than the rule.

It's true. In 2002, minority turnout actually increased during the runoff. I don't think Louisiana can be lumped in with Georgia in this case.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/10/upshot/how-black-turnout-could-decide-senate-control.html?abt=0002&abg=1


Title: Re: LA: PPP: Landrieu leads primary, close runoff
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 02, 2014, 10:03:43 pm
Impressive but still an exception rather than the rule. And the state has also become more Republican since then with a much more toxic environment for the Dems.