Talk Elections

Link coming.

Landrieu- 43%
Cassidy- 35%
Maness- 15%

Cassidy- 48%
Landrieu- 47%

Runoff figures?

That ain't good numbers for her in the primary.

Cassidy leads 48-47 in the runoff.

Those are some startlingly good numbers for Landrieu in the runoff. Could she work a miracle yet again?

Oooh, closer than I imagined.

...the numbers are contingent on the December electorate being the same as this Tuesday's. And it obviously won't be.

I think she will.

She definitely can, but it will likely require runoff turnout to be just like November turnout, which is hard to see.

Can someone explain to me why there's such a big discrepancy between the numbers in the primary and runoff elections?? I can't say I'm too knowledgable about Louisiana elections. Will this runoff be similar to the one we will likely see in Georgia?

Louisiana's going to be a nail-biter too, what a pleasant surprise. I hope she can pull this out again.

New Poll: Louisiana Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-11-01 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2014/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=22220141101108)

Summary: D: 43%, R: 35%, I: 15%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/LAResults.pdf)

Because Cassidy and Maness are both Republicans. Their share of the vote combined makes 50%. Once Landrieu and Cassidy go to a runoff, Republicans  are united around Cassidy.

You screwed up the numbers

It's official. This PPP wave is junk. Absolutely no way Lanny is in the MoE  with all the trips she has made.

I see you're prepping the argument if the PPP numbers in the heavy contests out tomorrow show the Dems doing OK.

It's PPP(D) junk polls!!!!

Not long ago, PPP was the gold standard when it was showing good results for Republicans, not that it's showing not so favorable results, it's back to being junk.

Much better than I was expecting. She just may have a shot at this.

I think she has a 50/50 chance if Senate control is settled in November.  If the run-off determines control, she is done.

Who cares? In 1996 and 2002, a majority of the first round votes were for Republicans. She won the second round.

If anybody is going to pull off the upset of the cycle, it's going to be her.

Should we really be that dismissive though? Underestimating minority turnout in 2012 didn't turn out to be such a wise decision..

Yep. I wasn't even expecting LA to swing to Obama.

...which didn't include runoffs so talk about a completely pointless post.

Looks totally reasonable. Landrieu is a skilled politician and will be able to keep the runoff close, but unless the atmosphere changes a great deal in the next month, I don't think she can win it. Even with the inflated minority November turnout she's still only hitting 47%.

At the risk of being called names, I'm going to say it's not wise to underestimate Landrieu. Even if you hate Landrieu, you have to admit that she still has a chance, as she's been able to win before.

In 2002, minority turnout didn't drop out during the run off Phil.

Don't try to reason with him, he doesn't live in reality.

Besides, he's a Pennsylvania Republican. ::)

Anyhoo, Landrieu has proven she knows how to win runoffs, so being a point down is hope. Runoff election dynamics are not the same in LA as in GA.

That said, there's a serious chance depending on the outcomes in CO, IA, AK, and KS that her (and Nunn's) runoff's could decide control of the Senate. In which case she goes from a fighting chance to probably screwed.

I find that somewhat hard to believe and even if true, it's far more of an exception to the rule than the rule.

It's true. In 2002, minority turnout actually increased during the runoff. I don't think Louisiana can be lumped in with Georgia in this case.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/10/upshot/how-black-turnout-could-decide-senate-control.html?abt=0002&abg=1

Impressive but still an exception rather than the rule. And the state has also become more Republican since then with a much more toxic environment for the Dems.