Talk Elections

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/529381293419954176

HAHA Branstad only up 11!!!! #IowaisDemCountry

No points for guessing that R+11 is Branstad.

Haha, cool riddle. I'm guessing...

IA-Gov - R+11 (duh)
KS-Sen - I+1 (duh)
NH-Gov - D+6 (most likely)
GA-Gov - R+4 (most likely)
GA-Sen - R+3 (most likely)
IA-Sen - R+1 (most likely)
KS-Gov - D+2
NH-Sen - D+2
NC-Sen - D+1

So Orman is up 1 and Hassan up 6

R+11 - IA-Gov
R+4 - GA-Gov
R+3 - IA-Sen
R+1 - GA-Sen
I+1 - KS-Sen
D+1 - NC-Sen
D+2 - NH-Sen
D+2 - KS-Gov
D+6 - NH-Gov

Good news about KS,the rest was as expected.

PPP loves playing mind games with us,

These aren't the results just guesses... but they're still pretty close to what I'm expecting.

This is tough. I'll go ahead and agree with Miles and Sawx, though IceSpear's prediction is certainly possible. I would be shocked, however, if it was Deal who was R+3 and Ernst who was R+4, but I also don't think that's entirely out of the question (considering Quinnipiac also showed an Ernst+4 poll).

This is the most likely result. Nothing new here.

RESULTS:

https://twitter.com/ppppolls

Deal +4
Perdue +1
Ernst +3
Branstad +11
Shaheen +2
Hassan +6
Orman +1
Davis +1
Hagan +2

NC - Hagan up 46/44. Haugh at 5.

Well KS-SEN was obvious ;)

Worse than expected in Iowa,honestly.

Perdue 46, Nunn 45
Deal 47, Carter 43
Ernst 49, Braley 46
Branstad 51, Hatch 40
Shaheen 49, Brown 47
Hassan 51, Havenstein 45
Orman 47, Roberts 46
Davis 46, Brownback 45
Hagan 46, Tillis 44

Good news for Ernst.

New Hampshire is weird; they're such a bipolar state politically.

Looks about right. I think Roberts will pull it out though. Brownback and Brown likely need miracles, but this is better than I had imagined for the former. Tillis is going to need a massive boost. Too little too late for him.

Poor Georgia going to have to suffer through two runoffs. Deal is outperforming Perdue and Nunn is outperforming Carter. I don't think I would have picked that over the last three months.

Haugh at 5 is a bit high for my comfort, but it was expecting Hagan to only be up 1.

JUNK POLLS!

So in two PPP polls of Kansas released on the same day...in one, Davis is outperforming Orman by 5 points. In another, they're at the same spot. ???

Wait, so Orman is doing better in this than their internal poll, yet Davis is doing worse in this than his internal? Weird.

I would love to believe Brownback is only down 1. I'll be going into tomorrow night expecting a Brownback loss and 50/50 on Roberts or Orman, hopefully setting myself up for a pleasant surprise.

Looks like both Roberts and Brownback will survive.

Everyone is giving up on Brownback. Even Republican operatives. Only Roberts has a prayer.

Beautiful news in Kansas. Continue stringing along the fools and then the KS GOP steamrolls over Obama's choices.

You have no clue, dude, you live like a million miles away.

Based off what? His 4 point deficit? ::) #Delusional

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-kansas-governor-brownback-vs-davis

Don't know why Ernst being up 3 is doom but her up 1 from same pollster gives Braley hope. It's all statistical noise and she's favored by 1-2 points.

Based on this last PPP poll and all undecideds breaking for R's.

Pretty much proof that PPP doesn't fudge their polls for their clients anymore than they do/don't for the rest of us.

I like this more than 2010. But yeah, it'll be a long night.

I'll give you that you can argue either way on both races, but I continue to predict a narrow victory for both Orman and Davis. Kansas is red, but it's not dumb - it's willing to at least try the other party when things don't work out, unlike Illinois.

In the PPP poll, there are more Dem/Ind undecideds than Republican undecideds.

Control of the Senate can come down to one seat. Kansas isn't taking that risk with Orman.

Have you ever even met a Kansan?

When you include leaners, Perdue and Nunn are tied at 48%. 8% of blacks are still undecided in the PPP poll which would push Nunn up to 50%. She'll definitely finish ahead of Perdue tomorrow night. The question is if she wins outright.

I do think the fundamentals of the race in GA do suggest Nunn will be ahead tomorrow night... the issue is by how much.

Ga and La goes to runoffs and we go to round 2.

Oddly enough, I actually agree with you.

I actually think there's a >50% chance Perdue wins outright tomorrow. Some of these Libertarian candidates are going to collapse in the actual results.

Yes, but undecideds are heavily democratic. It seems that the Libertarian is actually taking more from Nunn than Perdue, according to PPP. In the h2h they're tied 48-48 with 8% of blacks (2.32%) of the sample undecided. If Nunn can turn those voters out, she wins outright.

Also, in NC, PPP has a sample that is only 21% AA. The early vote is 25% AA. Miles, do you have perspective on what the racial breakdown will be tomorrow. I could see Hagan just barely missing 50%.

I'd put it at 2:1 going to a runoff for Perdue/Nunn with Deal/Carter at 50/50. The Senate libertarian should finish in the 2-3% range.  The Governor libertarian should finish in the 3-4% range historically.

The issue with NC is that the Dems have banked a lot of the AA vote already. So 25% through early-voting is probably the high-water mark and it will drop back as election-day voters come out. I doubt it drops to 21% but 22% is plausible.

I still think Roberts pulls out a win.  NC and NH will be close.  GA will probably go to runoff.

I read on the Upshot that if only people who voted in 2010 showed up tomorrow, it would be 21%. Given how more than half the new Democrats that voted early were black, I doubt it falls under 22%.

How's the racial mix for GA?

If it were to hold around 23%, could Hagan reach 50%?

A lot of close races tomorrow. I hope the Democratic ground game advantage is real and we manage to steal at least one of CO, IA, and GA. We'll see.

If the Democratic ground game advantage is real, we will over perform across all competitive races.

Its possible. It was 23% in 2012; she'd have to overperform Obama by 4-5% with whites.

For reference, in 2008, Obama lost whites 64/35 while Hagan lost them 57/39.

Doing some digging around the GA cross-tabs...

They've got in relation to racial mix..

White 64%
African-American 29%
Other 7%

Considering the early-vote is about what? 33% AA, are we expecting the AA vote to drop off by nearly 4%?

Plus it seems Nunn has stronger cross-over support.

Unless the DPG and the combined campaigns have done an unprecedented and frankly unbelievable job at converting black election day voters in 2010 into black early voters in 2014, then it's possible that the final electorate is 32% black, which would be perhaps the biggest demographic upset of the night (considering Obama only managed to build a 30% black electorate in GA in 2008/2012, which was considered monumental).

I'm guessing dropoff to 31-30%.

At 93% Nunn that gets her to 28-29% of the vote.
If we assume whites at 64%, she needs to win others 50/50 in order to win with 30% of the white vote. I'm guessing she wins overs 3-2 which means she can probably drop to 28% of the white vote. Easily doable.

I have a gut feeling that Nunn could win tomorrow night. I think Orman's gonna win. Iowa's the biggest wild card. I literally won't be surprised either way.

Your posts make my eyes bleed.

We know Republicans don't handle the truth well ;)

Gregory the Gallant is winning moderates 77-19. Dayum. The DC Fossil is lucky he's in Kansas, otherwise he'd already be dead and slowly decomposing into crude oil.

Win the election for the night or win the election and avoid the runoff?

It's possible, but looking unlikely that she wins the night.
It's very unlikely she clears 50% +1.

Most likely scenario is Perdue lead, but runoff.

Undecideds don't look good for Braley in Iowa - Only 2% of Democrats are undecided, compared to 5% and 8% for Republicans and Independents. If things continue as they have, Ernst should win.

So... they got Shaheen basically right and Brandstad ...

PPP f'ed up BAD.

Yeah, but so did mostly everyone else, so they have that to fall back on.

Tbqh all pollsters should just disband and let Selzer and Marquette do everything.

Don't forget about "right-wing" Quinnipiac. They nailed this cycle.

They had Iowa tied, Gardner only up 2, and Crist winning.

Junk poll!

     The problem is treating any pollster as foolproof. I remember when Rasmussen was considered the best, and then they had a really bad election cycle with a significant Republican bias.

 Gardner should win by around 5,so that's still within the MOE.

Actual results:

LOL@PPP!

Junk prediction! Junk troll! Great ban!