Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2014 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: JRP1994 on November 03, 2014, 04:23:39 pm



Title: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: JRP1994 on November 03, 2014, 04:23:39 pm
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/529381293419954176


Title: Re: Final PPP Polls to be released within the hour; range from R+11 to D+6
Post by: KCDem on November 03, 2014, 04:25:27 pm
HAHA Branstad only up 11!!!! #IowaisDemCountry


Title: Re: Final PPP Polls to be released within the hour; range from R+11 to D+6
Post by: Brittain33 on November 03, 2014, 04:25:50 pm
No points for guessing that R+11 is Branstad.


Title: Re: Final PPP Polls to be released within the hour; range from R+11 to D+6
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 03, 2014, 04:27:41 pm
Haha, cool riddle. I'm guessing...

IA-Gov - R+11 (duh)
KS-Sen - I+1 (duh)
NH-Gov - D+6 (most likely)
GA-Gov - R+4 (most likely)
GA-Sen - R+3 (most likely)
IA-Sen - R+1 (most likely)
KS-Gov - D+2
NH-Sen - D+2
NC-Sen - D+1


Title: Re: Final PPP Polls to be released within the hour; range from R+11 to D+6
Post by: KCDem on November 03, 2014, 04:27:45 pm
So Orman is up 1 and Hassan up 6


Title: Re: Final PPP Polls to be released within the hour; range from R+11 to D+6
Post by: gay gay gay bathhouses on November 03, 2014, 04:28:44 pm
R+11 - IA-Gov
R+4 - GA-Gov
R+3 - IA-Sen
R+1 - GA-Sen
I+1 - KS-Sen
D+1 - NC-Sen
D+2 - NH-Sen
D+2 - KS-Gov
D+6 - NH-Gov


Title: Re: Final PPP Polls to be released within the hour; range from R+11 to D+6
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on November 03, 2014, 04:31:00 pm
Good news about KS,the rest was as expected.


Title: Re: Final PPP Polls to be released within the hour; range from R+11 to D+6
Post by: Miles on November 03, 2014, 04:32:28 pm
R+11 - IA-Gov
R+4 - GA-Gov
R+3 - IA-Sen
R+1 - GA-Sen
I+1 - KS-Sen
D+1 - NC-Sen
D+2 - NH-Sen
D+2 - KS-Gov
D+6 - NH-Gov


Title: Re: Final PPP Polls to be released within the hour; range from R+11 to D+6
Post by: Marston on November 03, 2014, 04:36:08 pm
PPP loves playing mind games with us,


Title: Re: Final PPP Polls to be released within the hour; range from R+11 to D+6
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 03, 2014, 04:39:23 pm
Good news about KS,the rest was as expected.

These aren't the results just guesses... but they're still pretty close to what I'm expecting.


Title: Re: Final PPP Polls to be released within the hour; range from R+11 to D+6
Post by: Maxwell on November 03, 2014, 04:41:07 pm
This is tough. I'll go ahead and agree with Miles and Sawx, though IceSpear's prediction is certainly possible. I would be shocked, however, if it was Deal who was R+3 and Ernst who was R+4, but I also don't think that's entirely out of the question (considering Quinnipiac also showed an Ernst+4 poll).


Title: Re: Final PPP Polls to be released within the hour; range from R+11 to D+6
Post by: Ljube on November 03, 2014, 04:45:18 pm
Haha, cool riddle. I'm guessing...

IA-Gov - R+11 (duh)
KS-Sen - I+1 (duh)
NH-Gov - D+6 (most likely)
GA-Gov - R+4 (most likely)
GA-Sen - R+3 (most likely)
IA-Sen - R+1 (most likely)
KS-Gov - D+2
NH-Sen - D+2
NC-Sen - D+1

This is the most likely result. Nothing new here.


Title: Re: Final PPP Polls to be released within the hour; range from R+11 to D+6
Post by: JRP1994 on November 03, 2014, 04:54:50 pm
RESULTS:

https://twitter.com/ppppolls

Deal +4
Perdue +1
Ernst +3
Branstad +11
Shaheen +2
Hassan +6
Orman +1
Davis +1
Hagan +2


Title: Re: Final PPP Polls to be released within the hour; range from R+11 to D+6
Post by: Senator Cris on November 03, 2014, 04:55:07 pm
NC - Hagan up 46/44. Haugh at 5.


Title: Re: Final PPP Polls to be released within the hour; range from R+11 to D+6
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on November 03, 2014, 04:57:34 pm
Good news about KS,the rest was as expected.

These aren't the results just guesses... but they're still pretty close to what I'm expecting.
Well KS-SEN was obvious ;)

Worse than expected in Iowa,honestly.


Title: Re: Final PPP Polls to be released within the hour; range from R+11 to D+6
Post by: Dr. RI on November 03, 2014, 04:57:44 pm
Perdue 46, Nunn 45
Deal 47, Carter 43
Ernst 49, Braley 46
Branstad 51, Hatch 40
Shaheen 49, Brown 47
Hassan 51, Havenstein 45
Orman 47, Roberts 46
Davis 46, Brownback 45
Hagan 46, Tillis 44


Title: Re: Final PPP Polls to be released within the hour; range from R+11 to D+6
Post by: Maxwell on November 03, 2014, 04:58:00 pm
Good news for Ernst.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: King Andrew of House Beshear on November 03, 2014, 05:00:06 pm
New Hampshire is weird; they're such a bipolar state politically.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on November 03, 2014, 05:02:07 pm
Looks about right. I think Roberts will pull it out though. Brownback and Brown likely need miracles, but this is better than I had imagined for the former. Tillis is going to need a massive boost. Too little too late for him.

Poor Georgia going to have to suffer through two runoffs. Deal is outperforming Perdue and Nunn is outperforming Carter. I don't think I would have picked that over the last three months.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Miles on November 03, 2014, 05:02:19 pm
Haugh at 5 is a bit high for my comfort, but it was expecting Hagan to only be up 1.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: KCDem on November 03, 2014, 05:02:58 pm
JUNK POLLS!


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 03, 2014, 05:09:22 pm
So in two PPP polls of Kansas released on the same day...in one, Davis is outperforming Orman by 5 points. In another, they're at the same spot. ???


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: tmthforu94 on November 03, 2014, 05:15:49 pm
Wait, so Orman is doing better in this than their internal poll, yet Davis is doing worse in this than his internal? Weird.

I would love to believe Brownback is only down 1. I'll be going into tomorrow night expecting a Brownback loss and 50/50 on Roberts or Orman, hopefully setting myself up for a pleasant surprise.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Ljube on November 03, 2014, 05:18:15 pm
Looks like both Roberts and Brownback will survive.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: KCDem on November 03, 2014, 05:18:27 pm
Wait, so Orman is doing better in this than their internal poll, yet Davis is doing worse in this than his internal? Weird.

I would love to believe Brownback is only down 1. I'll be going into tomorrow night expecting a Brownback loss and 50/50 on Roberts or Orman, hopefully setting myself up for a pleasant surprise.

Everyone is giving up on Brownback. Even Republican operatives. Only Roberts has a prayer.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 03, 2014, 05:19:26 pm
Beautiful news in Kansas. Continue stringing along the fools and then the KS GOP steamrolls over Obama's choices.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: KCDem on November 03, 2014, 05:21:04 pm
Beautiful news in Kansas. Continue stringing along the fools and then the KS GOP steamrolls over Obama's choices.

You have no clue, dude, you live like a million miles away.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 03, 2014, 05:21:26 pm
Looks like both Roberts and Brownback will survive.

Based off what? His 4 point deficit? ::) #Delusional

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-kansas-governor-brownback-vs-davis


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Devils30 on November 03, 2014, 05:22:28 pm
Don't know why Ernst being up 3 is doom but her up 1 from same pollster gives Braley hope. It's all statistical noise and she's favored by 1-2 points.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Ljube on November 03, 2014, 05:34:51 pm
Looks like both Roberts and Brownback will survive.

Based off what? His 4 point deficit? ::) #Delusional

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-kansas-governor-brownback-vs-davis

Based on this last PPP poll and all undecideds breaking for R's.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Dr. RI on November 03, 2014, 05:35:31 pm
Pretty much proof that PPP doesn't fudge their polls for their clients anymore than they do/don't for the rest of us.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Vega on November 03, 2014, 05:38:00 pm
I like this more than 2010. But yeah, it'll be a long night.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on November 03, 2014, 05:39:37 pm
Beautiful news in Kansas. Continue stringing along the fools and then the KS GOP steamrolls over Obama's choices.
I'll give you that you can argue either way on both races, but I continue to predict a narrow victory for both Orman and Davis. Kansas is red, but it's not dumb - it's willing to at least try the other party when things don't work out, unlike Illinois.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Miles on November 03, 2014, 05:46:30 pm
Looks like both Roberts and Brownback will survive.

Based off what? His 4 point deficit? ::) #Delusional

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-kansas-governor-brownback-vs-davis

Based on this last PPP poll and all undecideds breaking for R's.

In the PPP poll, there are more Dem/Ind undecideds than Republican undecideds.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 03, 2014, 05:47:01 pm
Beautiful news in Kansas. Continue stringing along the fools and then the KS GOP steamrolls over Obama's choices.
I'll give you that you can argue either way on both races, but I continue to predict a narrow victory for both Orman and Davis. Kansas is red, but it's not dumb - it's willing to at least try the other party when things don't work out, unlike Illinois.

Control of the Senate can come down to one seat. Kansas isn't taking that risk with Orman.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: KCDem on November 03, 2014, 05:49:06 pm
Beautiful news in Kansas. Continue stringing along the fools and then the KS GOP steamrolls over Obama's choices.
I'll give you that you can argue either way on both races, but I continue to predict a narrow victory for both Orman and Davis. Kansas is red, but it's not dumb - it's willing to at least try the other party when things don't work out, unlike Illinois.

Control of the Senate can come down to one seat. Kansas isn't taking that risk with Orman.

Have you ever even met a Kansan?


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: KCDem on November 03, 2014, 06:02:57 pm
When you include leaners, Perdue and Nunn are tied at 48%. 8% of blacks are still undecided in the PPP poll which would push Nunn up to 50%. She'll definitely finish ahead of Perdue tomorrow night. The question is if she wins outright.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 03, 2014, 06:13:31 pm
I do think the fundamentals of the race in GA do suggest Nunn will be ahead tomorrow night... the issue is by how much.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Cory Booker on November 03, 2014, 06:15:29 pm
Ga and La goes to runoffs and we go to round 2.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on November 03, 2014, 06:16:34 pm
Ga and La goes to runoffs and we go to round 2.
Oddly enough, I actually agree with you.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Dr. RI on November 03, 2014, 06:19:08 pm
I actually think there's a >50% chance Perdue wins outright tomorrow. Some of these Libertarian candidates are going to collapse in the actual results.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: KCDem on November 03, 2014, 06:25:54 pm
I actually think there's a >50% chance Perdue wins outright tomorrow. Some of these Libertarian candidates are going to collapse in the actual results.

Yes, but undecideds are heavily democratic. It seems that the Libertarian is actually taking more from Nunn than Perdue, according to PPP. In the h2h they're tied 48-48 with 8% of blacks (2.32%) of the sample undecided. If Nunn can turn those voters out, she wins outright.

Also, in NC, PPP has a sample that is only 21% AA. The early vote is 25% AA. Miles, do you have perspective on what the racial breakdown will be tomorrow. I could see Hagan just barely missing 50%.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Recalcuate on November 03, 2014, 06:40:20 pm
I actually think there's a >50% chance Perdue wins outright tomorrow. Some of these Libertarian candidates are going to collapse in the actual results.

I'd put it at 2:1 going to a runoff for Perdue/Nunn with Deal/Carter at 50/50. The Senate libertarian should finish in the 2-3% range.  The Governor libertarian should finish in the 3-4% range historically.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 03, 2014, 06:55:24 pm
I actually think there's a >50% chance Perdue wins outright tomorrow. Some of these Libertarian candidates are going to collapse in the actual results.

Yes, but undecideds are heavily democratic. It seems that the Libertarian is actually taking more from Nunn than Perdue, according to PPP. In the h2h they're tied 48-48 with 8% of blacks (2.32%) of the sample undecided. If Nunn can turn those voters out, she wins outright.

Also, in NC, PPP has a sample that is only 21% AA. The early vote is 25% AA. Miles, do you have perspective on what the racial breakdown will be tomorrow. I could see Hagan just barely missing 50%.

The issue with NC is that the Dems have banked a lot of the AA vote already. So 25% through early-voting is probably the high-water mark and it will drop back as election-day voters come out. I doubt it drops to 21% but 22% is plausible.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Consciously Unconscious on November 03, 2014, 06:56:44 pm
I still think Roberts pulls out a win.  NC and NH will be close.  GA will probably go to runoff.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Miles on November 03, 2014, 07:00:52 pm

The issue with NC is that the Dems have banked a lot of the AA vote already. So 25% through early-voting is probably the high-water mark and it will drop back as election-day voters come out. I doubt it drops to 21% but 22% is plausible.

I read on the Upshot that if only people who voted in 2010 showed up tomorrow, it would be 21%. Given how more than half the new Democrats that voted early were black, I doubt it falls under 22%.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 03, 2014, 07:01:44 pm
How's the racial mix for GA?


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: KCDem on November 03, 2014, 07:11:46 pm

The issue with NC is that the Dems have banked a lot of the AA vote already. So 25% through early-voting is probably the high-water mark and it will drop back as election-day voters come out. I doubt it drops to 21% but 22% is plausible.

I read on the Upshot that if only people who voted in 2010 showed up tomorrow, it would be 21%. Given how more than half the new Democrats that voted early were black, I doubt it falls under 22%.

If it were to hold around 23%, could Hagan reach 50%?


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 03, 2014, 07:19:37 pm
A lot of close races tomorrow. I hope the Democratic ground game advantage is real and we manage to steal at least one of CO, IA, and GA. We'll see.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: KCDem on November 03, 2014, 07:24:08 pm
A lot of close races tomorrow. I hope the Democratic ground game advantage is real and we manage to steal at least one of CO, IA, and GA. We'll see.

If the Democratic ground game advantage is real, we will over perform across all competitive races.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Miles on November 03, 2014, 07:26:33 pm
If it were to hold around 23%, could Hagan reach 50%?

Its possible. It was 23% in 2012; she'd have to overperform Obama by 4-5% with whites.

For reference, in 2008, Obama lost whites 64/35 while Hagan lost them 57/39.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 03, 2014, 07:30:26 pm
Doing some digging around the GA cross-tabs...

They've got in relation to racial mix..

White 64%
African-American 29%
Other 7%

Considering the early-vote is about what? 33% AA, are we expecting the AA vote to drop off by nearly 4%?

Plus it seems Nunn has stronger cross-over support.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: President Griffin on November 03, 2014, 07:35:55 pm
Doing some digging around the GA cross-tabs...

They've got in relation to racial mix..

White 64%
African-American 29%
Other 7%

Considering the early-vote is about what? 33% AA, are we expecting the AA vote to drop off by nearly 4%?

Plus it seems Nunn has stronger cross-over support.


Quote
2010 Early Voting Totals:
Total Votes Cast: 678,939
White: 64.3%
Black: 29.0%

Quote
2010 Total Turnout:
Total Votes Cast: 2,622,527
White: 66.5%
Black: 28.0%



Quote
2014 Early Voting Totals:
Total Votes Cast: 933,038
White: 61.1%
Black: 32.7%

Quote
Aggregate Polling for 2014 GA:

White: 64%
Black: 28%

Unless the DPG and the combined campaigns have done an unprecedented and frankly unbelievable job at converting black election day voters in 2010 into black early voters in 2014, then it's possible that the final electorate is 32% black, which would be perhaps the biggest demographic upset of the night (considering Obama only managed to build a 30% black electorate in GA in 2008/2012, which was considered monumental).


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: KCDem on November 03, 2014, 07:38:14 pm
Doing some digging around the GA cross-tabs...

They've got in relation to racial mix..

White 64%
African-American 29%
Other 7%

Considering the early-vote is about what? 33% AA, are we expecting the AA vote to drop off by nearly 4%?

Plus it seems Nunn has stronger cross-over support.

I'm guessing dropoff to 31-30%.

At 93% Nunn that gets her to 28-29% of the vote.
If we assume whites at 64%, she needs to win others 50/50 in order to win with 30% of the white vote. I'm guessing she wins overs 3-2 which means she can probably drop to 28% of the white vote. Easily doable.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Queen Liz <3 on November 03, 2014, 09:26:46 pm
I have a gut feeling that Nunn could win tomorrow night. I think Orman's gonna win. Iowa's the biggest wild card. I literally won't be surprised either way.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Keystone Phil on November 03, 2014, 09:32:24 pm
I have a gut feeling that Nunn could win tomorrow night.

Your posts make my eyes bleed.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: KCDem on November 03, 2014, 09:33:48 pm
I have a gut feeling that Nunn could win tomorrow night.

Your posts make my eyes bleed.

We know Republicans don't handle the truth well ;)


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 03, 2014, 10:12:32 pm
Gregory the Gallant is winning moderates 77-19. Dayum. The DC Fossil is lucky he's in Kansas, otherwise he'd already be dead and slowly decomposing into crude oil.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Recalcuate on November 03, 2014, 10:18:17 pm
I have a gut feeling that Nunn could win tomorrow night. I think Orman's gonna win. Iowa's the biggest wild card. I literally won't be surprised either way.

Win the election for the night or win the election and avoid the runoff?

It's possible, but looking unlikely that she wins the night.
It's very unlikely she clears 50% +1.

Most likely scenario is Perdue lead, but runoff.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Maxwell on November 04, 2014, 01:32:09 am
Undecideds don't look good for Braley in Iowa - Only 2% of Democrats are undecided, compared to 5% and 8% for Republicans and Independents. If things continue as they have, Ernst should win.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 05, 2014, 01:51:59 am
So... they got Shaheen basically right and Brandstad ...

PPP f'ed up BAD.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 05, 2014, 01:58:01 am
So... they got Shaheen basically right and Brandstad ...

PPP f'ed up BAD.

Yeah, but so did mostly everyone else, so they have that to fall back on.

Tbqh all pollsters should just disband and let Selzer and Marquette do everything.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Maxwell on November 05, 2014, 02:03:40 am
Don't forget about "right-wing" Quinnipiac. They nailed this cycle.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 05, 2014, 02:05:58 am
Don't forget about "right-wing" Quinnipiac. They nailed this cycle.

They had Iowa tied, Gardner only up 2, and Crist winning.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: krazen1211 on November 05, 2014, 02:08:17 am
Don't forget about "right-wing" Quinnipiac. They nailed this cycle.

They had Iowa tied, Gardner only up 2, and Crist winning.

Junk poll!


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on November 05, 2014, 03:34:26 am
Don't forget about "right-wing" Quinnipiac. They nailed this cycle.

They had Iowa tied, Gardner only up 2, and Crist winning.

     The problem is treating any pollster as foolproof. I remember when Rasmussen was considered the best, and then they had a really bad election cycle with a significant Republican bias.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on November 05, 2014, 04:32:08 am
 Gardner should win by around 5,so that's still within the MOE.


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: krazen1211 on November 05, 2014, 08:07:11 am
Actual results:

LOL@PPP!


Title: Re: PPP: Perdue +1, Orman +1, Hagan +2, Shaheen +2, Ernst +3
Post by: Oregreen on December 29, 2014, 05:59:49 pm
Wait, so Orman is doing better in this than their internal poll, yet Davis is doing worse in this than his internal? Weird.

I would love to believe Brownback is only down 1. I'll be going into tomorrow night expecting a Brownback loss and 50/50 on Roberts or Orman, hopefully setting myself up for a pleasant surprise.

Everyone is giving up on Brownback. Even Republican operatives. Only Roberts has a prayer.

Junk prediction! Junk troll! Great ban!