Talk Elections

November 2014: Democrats suffer debilitating losses nationwide, dropping to only 18 Governorships, losing 9 Senate seats and with the GOP attaining its largest House majority since the 1920s. The GOP maintains its grip on numerous state legislatures, including flipping both houses in West Virginia and Nevada. President Barack Obama's unpopularity amidst international crises is cited as a major factor in the loss, in addition to gaffe-prone Democratic candidates and lackluster turnout.

December 2014: President Barack Obama signs an executive order commanding DHS to prioritize deportations to illegal immigrants with a criminal history and partially extends DACA to parents of already-eligible children. House Republicans threaten a government shutdown, but none occurs before the beginning of the year. Dozens of Obama appointees are waived through by a voice vote in return for waiting to vote on AG nominee Loretta Lynch in 2015. The ISIS siege of Kobani is broken after Turkey acquiesces to NATO demands to stage airstrikes from Incirlik. After snap elections, Shinzo Abe's LDP is returned with a reduced majority in the Japanese Diet.

January 2015: Newly inaugurated Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson rejects the Medicaid expansion in Arkansas. After a contentious questioning period highlighted by Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX)'s televised questions and later filibuster on the nomination over her responses to the Obama executive order, Lynch is narrowly confirmed by a vote of 52-48, with all Democrats and six Republicans voting in favor after the Senate agrees to end Cruz's filibuster 89-10. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announces her intention to run for President in 2016, as was widely expected. An airstrike in Syria kills the Caliph Ibrahim.

February 2015: Obama strikes a combative tone in his State of the Union address. The GOP rebuttal is given by Cory Gardner, while Cruz gives his own rebuttal afterwards. After a much-ballyhooed challenge from the left by Robert Fioretti, Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel is reelected with 53% of the vote over several weak challengers. Early elections in Croatia are won by the nationalist HDZ and a right-wing coalition; Tomislav Karamarko becomes the new Prime Minister of Croatia.

March 2015: The Iraqi Army scores a major victory over ISIS and retakes Mosul after weeks of heavy fighting. Ted Cruz announces a Presidential run, and a few days later so does Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee rules out a run once again and signals that he will endorse whoever the strongest social conservative in the race is.

April 2015: Senator Bernie Sanders announces a run for President as a Democrat. Clinton responds by touting the endorsements of Senator Elizabeth Warren and New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, both prominent progressives. Florida Governor Jeb Bush announces that he will run for President in 2016 at a news conference with both his father and brother. A few days later, US Senator Marco Rubio announces that he will not run for President, but declines to endorse Bush.

May 2015: President Obama is granted fast-track authority on the Trans-Pacific Partnership by the US Senate and signs corporate tax reform lowering the top overall bracket to 26.5% into law, cited as a rare bipartisan achievement. In the Kentucky primary, Matt Bevin wins a stunning upset over frontrunner James Comer to become the GOP's nominee for Governor. In the UK, Labour wins the most seats, but not enough for a majority and is forced to form a coalition government with the SNP and Sinn Fein. Ed Miliband becomes Prime Minister of the UK. UKIP wins twenty-five seats, almost all of them in traditionally Conservative constituencies, and the Liberal Democrats lose over half of the their caucus.

Interesting.  Looking forward to more!

June 2015: In a surprise, the US Supreme Court upholds federal ACA subsidies in a 6-3 vote, causing conservatives to once again question Chief Justice Roberts' conservative credentials. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie announces his candidacy for President, as do Rick Santorum and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Ohio Governor John Kasich announces he will not be a candidate. Ukrainian forces manage to finally seize Donetsk a few weeks after the ceasefire permanently crumbles. Polish and NATO forces are put on high alert and President Obama speaks on national television to announce that the United States will sanction Russia again if there are any further breaches of the ceasefire. Former US Vice President Dick Cheney dies at the age of 74.

June 2015 (continued): Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy calls snap elections several months early after his party improves its polling position. However, the PP quickly deteriorates in the ensuing campaign and there is a hung Parliament, with the PP holding a plurality of seats and the PSE suffering a historic loss, being overtaken by left-populist Podemos and IU, who refuse to give the PP a confidence vote. PP is forced into a grand coalition with the PSE and Basque Nationalist Party, which was another big winner over rival Amaiur in its own region. The unrest sparks worries in the recession-beleaguered Eurozone.

Thanks! By the way, how does one post maps?

https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php

also: Advanced mapmaking for your timeline tutorial (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=174045.0)

This is really, really good. Keep up the awesome work!

A note from earlier in the thread: in April 2015, Finland's Centre Party regains most seats lost in the earlier election at the expense of the National Coalition and forms a coalition with the Social Democratic Party to prevent a Finns-National Coalition government. Juha Sipila becomes Prime Minister and SD leader Antti Rinne is made Foreign Minister and Deputy PM.

July 2015: Bobby Jindal and Rick Perry both enter the Presidential race. As the 2016 Congressional elections approach, several very old Republican Senators are committed to reelection races - Chuck Grassley, Dick Shelby and John McCain. Both Shelby and McCain pick up primary challenges, with Mo Brooks jumping in to take on the former and David Schweikert challenging the latter. Barbara Boxer and Barbara Mikulski both announce their retirements this month - in California, the GOP clears the field for David Valadao, while the Democrats clear the field for Kamala Harris and Eric Garcetti, setting up a San Fran-LA showdown. In Maryland, John Sarbanes enters the race for the Democrats while David Brinkley, the State Senate Minority Leader, enters for the GOP where he would face Dan Bongino. President Obama vetoes a very conservative energy plan, the American Energy Production and Independence Act (AEPIA) passed by Congress.

July 2015 (continued): The PRI suffers heavy losses in Mexico's Congressional elections, with the PRD attaining 121 seats, the PAN earning 142 seats, and the PRI majority falling to 165 seats. President Enrique Pena Nieto refers to it as a "humbling rebuke," yet the PRI-PAN coalition continues. Bad international news arrives from Europe as Ukraine's government collapses and President Petro Poroshenko is forced to call snap elections to be held in early August around the one-year anniversary of the collapse of the first Ukrainian offensive in the Donbas. In France, an ISIS jihadist returning from Syria detonates a car bomb on the Champs Elysees, killing himself and twenty-one others. Security is heightened worldwide. A standoff over Jewish settlements in Jerusalem boils over into massive riots by Palestinians at the end of July, continuing into the next month. President Obama and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu exchange the harshest words yet over the harsh Israeli crackdown against the riots.

August 2015: One of the hottest summers on record exacerbates drought conditions in California, Texas and Oklahoma, driving up food prices nationwide. The low price of oil combined with record heat slows the energy boom in Texas somewhat, though the North Dakota shale extraction continues unabated. Education Secretary Arne Duncan announces his resignation, sparking a debate in the Senate, with conservatives such as Ted Cruz promising to hold up any nominee who supports the further implementation of Common Core. Several GOP and IDC members of the NY State Senate are indicted by US Attorney Preet Bharara on corruption and bribery charges. West Virginia passes a right-to-work law that is vetoed by Governor Earl Ray Tomblin. Former Senator Daniel Akaka passes away at the age of 90 and former Vice President Walter Mondale dies at 87.

August 2015 (continued): ISIS manages to briefly capture Aleppo. The Free Syrian Army has nearly completely collapsed by this point. Stephen Harper drops the writ to initiate the 2015 Canadian federal election for September 14, 2015. Westminster suffers its first coalition-related issues as SNP MPs, led by Alex Salmond, threaten to bring down the government over a Labour education reform bill. The Russian economy, after a revision by the World Bank, is shown to have been not only in a recession but a much deeper recession than imagined after sanctions, weak oil prices and a weak ruble. Ukraine's political crisis intensifies as former soldiers form their own party, The Protectors, protesting what they see as a lenient policy towards the East by Poroshenko. Rajoy's new government narrowly survives a confidence vote on its post-election budget.

What happens to cause Sinn Fein to actually take their oaths and their seats in parliament since they haven't done so ever before? I have a similar question pertaining to the SNP since the party has a policy of never voting on English matters in the UK parliament, and why do they change this?

I'm not sure about SF, I didn't know that was their policy. I needed the weak Labour minority government to have some sort of informal support. It may be that SNP doesn't necessarily vote on English matters, they just vote to install Miliband as PM with Labour continuing as a minority government.

September 2015: A late change in the 2016 Presidential race: Rob Portman announces he is jumping in at the last minute as an "agent of reform" as Christie and Bush's campaigns both sputter and Cruz wins the Ames Straw Poll. At a debate hosted in Nassau, NH by Fox News, Portman cites his budget knowledge and bipartisan credentials as the reason to vote for him and is endorsed by John Kasich. He is seen as a further candidate on the establishment side of the field. President Obama signs the bipartisan Care for Wounded Heroes Act (CWHA), a broad reform of the VA. The nominee to take over the DOE, Tom Torlakson, is held up by Common Core opponents for three weeks in the Senate without a vote.

September 2015 (continued): The Social Democrat government of Pedro Passos Coelho is defeated in the Portuguese elections by the Socialist Party, which wins a minority backed by the Left Bloc as the People's Party gains a staggering forty seats at the expense of SD. New PM Antonio Costa promises to restore parts of the budget imposed by austerity as Portugal's economy improves slightly. Iranian-backed Shia militias seize ISIS territory outside of Baghdad and immediately get into sectarian shooting matches with local Sunnis, though not to the extent of the 06-07 civil war.

Canadian Federal Election, September 14, 2015

In the 42nd Canadian federal election, the incumbent Conservative Party loses 47 seats and the NDP loses 29 as Justin Trudeau paces his Liberal Party to a minority government. The Bloc Quebecois wins one seat in Quebec, giving it its lowest seat total since 1993, and loses Official Party status. The new FD, singular to Quebec, also fails to return any members to Parliament, while the Green Party wins 5 seats, all in British Columbia, an all-time high.

Trudeau enters Parliament with a minority government of 149 seats.

Liberals: 149
Conservative: 116
NDP: 67
Greens: 5
Bloc Quebecois: 1

Will Harper retire as leader of the Conservatives or will he give it another go in a few years? And is Cameron leaving the leadership as well?

God I hope not. To quote my Canadian friend, "Stephen Harper is an egomaniacal asshole who's a puppet for corporate oil."

Analysis for Canadian federal election of 2014:

Liberal wins are concentrated in urban and suburban areas, with Liberals primarily targeting NDP seats in the Atlantic Provinces and Quebec, and Conservative seats in BC, Ontario and Manitoba. The strategy is successful, with the NDP being wiped out in Atlantic Canada, the Tories falling to 38 seats in Ontario and the Tories being left with one MP in Quebec. The NDP, which suffers a nearly 30 seat Liberal wipeout in Quebec, manages to pick off the former Independent bloquistes and FD members to pad their net loss. In Manitoba, Liberals pick off three Conservative seats in the Winnipeg area while the NDP gains another seat in the province.

The much-vaunted Liberal foray into Alberta only nets one seat in total, whereas Grit investments in Nova Scotia knock out all three Halifax-area Dippers/takes out a rural Tory, sweeps PEI and Newfoundland and picks up three seats in NB. The NDP and Liberals both bite into Tory numbers in Ontario, helping lead to an unexpectedly large loss for the government Tories.

The Greens earn their highest-ever total with five seats, four of which are located on Vancouver Island.

In his victory address, Justin Trudeau strikes a progressive tone, discussing themes of social justice, economic populism and environmentalism, while behind the scenes a very Third Way, Blairite leadership team is assembled. Tom Mulcair announces he will step down as NDP leader pending the election of a replacement, and Stephen Harper signals he will do the same, eventually announcing his retirement and immediate resignation on September 27th, with Peter MacKay taking over as interim Conservative leader. The 115 seat gain by the Liberals marked the biggest single-seat win in Canada since 1984, and the largest gain not to produce a majority government.

October 2015: Secretary of Education Tom Torlakson is finally confirmed by the Senate 55-42, with 3 abstentions. US Rep. Michael Grimm is convicted on seven charges and per New York state law is forced to resign, triggering a special election pegged by NY governor Andrew Cuomo to coincide with the 2016 elections. In the meantime, seat is left empty. At a rally in Manchester, NH, Jeb Bush is heckled and booed off the stage by conservative activists opposed to his stances on Common Core and immigration. Polls show Hillary Clinton leading all Republican opponents. US Rep. Chaka Fattah is indicted on corruption and campaign finance violation charges, and Governor Tom Wolf demands his resignation.

October 2015 (continued): Justin Trudeau forms a government in Canada. Daniel Scioli of the FPV-PJ wins the Argentinean presidential election as his Peronist/Kirchnerist coalition suffers modest losses but retains its majority over both houses - in his victory speech, Scioli promises a "change in style and strategy" from the twelve years of the Kirchners, angering his political patrons and many Peronists. The Ponta government in Romania collapses under pressure from the President, Klaus Iohannis, causing concerns of an economic crisis as protests spread.

The October Hurricanes: Two major Atlantic hurricanes cause widespread damage. The first, Hurricane Grace, makes landfall as a Category 4 storm in early October in South Carolina and south Georgia, wreaking havoc in Savannah and Charleston. The second, Hurricane Joaquin, ravages the Lesser Antilles and Windward Islands as a Category 5 storm and then barely weakens before hitting Venezuela as a Category 4. Caracas and surrounding low-lying municipalities are flooded, with nearly 30,000 deaths from the hurricane and thousands more as millions are left without power, oil rigs are swept ashore along with ships and vast looting and anarchy spreads across much of the country's populous and devastated coastal region. Joaquin is determined as the most destructive hurricane in history.

United States elections, 2015 (States)

Kentucky

Running on a platform of protecting Kynect and the Medicaid expansion of outgoing Democratic Governor Steve Beshear, AG Jack Conway wins a surprisingly comfortable 54-43 contest over businessman Matt Bevin to be elected Governor. Despite a barrage of outside spending, Democrats sweep every statewide office. SOS Alison Lundergan-Grimes and Auditor Adam Edelen are reelected, and new officeholders are elected to the Attorney General, State Treasurer and Ag Commissioner's offices: Andrew Beshear, Dan Grossberg, and Dennis Parrett, respectively. The wide margins in many downballot offices came as a surprise after the disastrous Democratic performance in Appalachia only one year earlier.

Louisiana

Senator David Vitter (R) and House Minority Leader John Bel Edwards (D) advance to a runoff for Governor. Former US Rep. Jeff Landry wins election to the Attorney General's office on the first ballot, John N. Kennedy is reelected to a fifth term as State Treasurer, and Elbert Guillory is elected Lieutenant Governor.  In the Legislature, Republicans gain two seats in the State Senate to pad their majority to 28-11, while Democrats gain three seats in the State House to narrow the Republican majority to 56-47, with two independents.

Mississippi

In one of the more surprising results of the election, Governor Phil Bryant is only reelected narrowly over former Rep. Travis Childers while most other state officeholders, including GOP Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves and Democratic AG Jim Hood, cruise to reelection. Bryant's 51-48 win over Childers is regarded as the surprise of the evening, brought on by unprecedented voter registration by Democrats and a campaign waged almost exclusively over the poverty rate and Bryant's refusal to expand Medicaid or establish an ACA exchange.

New Jersey

In legislative action, New Jersey Democrats gain five seats in the General Assembly, increasing their majority to 53-27, giving them a 2/3rds majority. The results are touted by prominent NJ Dems and GOP Presidential contenders as a repudiation of Chris Christie's policies, as the unemployment rate increased and the state received another bond downgrade in the weeks before the election. NJ GOP officials complain publicly for the first time that Christie has spent too much time away from the state campaigning and not helping them with their state-level agenda.

Virginia

The state houses of Virginia move slightly Democrat - the Democrats pick up the Senate seat vacated by John Watkins in the Senate to regain a tie-breaker majority with Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam, and Democrats pick up six seats in the House of Delegates, almost all of them in Northern Virginia to improve their standing to 62-38.

November 2015: In a particularly busy month, international crises unfold across much of the world. The crisis in Israel intensifies when Hamas assassinates Naftali Bennett and the Israeli army responds by entering the West Bank. The humanitarian crisis in Venezuela escalates as John Kerry, the first US Secretary of State to visit the country in years, is fired upon and is forced to flee the country. With power out and oil operations shuttered from the hurricane, the government is unable to respond to the thousands without food, clean water or electricity, and riots in Caracas and Miranda become violent proxies for clashes between regime supporters and opponents.

November 2015 (continued): The stalemate in the Ukraine continues as Ukraine enters a partial default and is bailed out by the IMF once again. A brief spike in oil prices after Hurricane Joaquin does not survive the structural low costs in the US and most of OPEC and so Russia's recession intensifies. Military coups in Ukraine are twice staved off. In the disintegrating warzone of Libya, Egypt is forced to intervene to stabilize the eastern half of the country, drawing the ire of many Egyptians and Libyans alike. Matteo Renzi calls snap elections in Italy.

December 2015: President Obama announces his official Presidential library will be part of the University of Chicago campus on the Southside, as was widely expected. Former Senator and Presidential candidate Bob Dole passes away in Kansas - his funeral is attended by most GOP Presidential candidates, as well as Bill Clinton. On the US political scene, it concludes the first year since 2009 in which there was no crucial standoff or shutdown or budget cliff at the conclusion of the year. A massive snowstorm pummels much of the Northeast, and Mayor Bill De Blasio is criticized for his response. David Vitter wins the runoff for Governor of Louisiana.

December 2015 (continued): Under new electoral rules designed to cut down on the number of parties, Matteo Renzi's center-left coalition wins a majority in Italy's lower house. The death toll continues to approach 100,000 in Venezuela not only from the horrendous conditions after the hurricane but the government's failure to respond to it and the spreading political violence, with both sides radicalizing and forming pseudo-paramilitaries, with opposition members targeting police officers, soldiers and government aid workers, and chavista forces attacking and staging shootings at opposition protests. A refugee crisis emerges, with thousands of Venezuelans fleeing into the rural south or into Colombia and Guyana. The Colombian Army seizes several border crossings after they are abandoned by Venezuelan forces.

Fidel Castro Dies: Fidel Castro dies at the age of 89 in Havana. Though he had not held real power for years, Castro's death represents a major historical moment, particularly in Latin America. There are massive demonstrations in many countries both memorializing him and condemning him - a massive street party, mostly of older Cubans, begins in Miami shortly after the news emerges, which is criticized in Latin American media. His younger brother, Cuban President Raul Castro, declares a national month of mourning and begins organizing a lavish state funeral that is criticized for its excess both at home and abroad.

On another random note, will Casto be embalmed? That seems to be the route taken by long term communist dictators.

He definitely seems like an embalming candidate :)

Meanwhile, earlier this fall...

Polish general election, 2015

Ewa Kopacz and the PO are reelected to an unprecedented third term in government, taking 36% of the vote to the PiS coalition's 30%. The PO's coalition partner, PSL, scores a 7%, the SLD takes 11% and several smaller parties take the rest of the percentage, all failing to cross the 5% threshold required to enter parliament, including third-party Your Movement. The election keeps the same liberal-conservative government that Poland has seen for eight years in charge and makes Poland be regarded as one of the most politically stable countries in the EU after Germany, particularly after the volatile elections and post-election situations earlier in the year in Spain, Portugal and Britain. Kopacz cites this development as proof that "Poland is now, if it wasn't before, irreversibly a major European power." Stock markets in Europe rally at the news.

I'm really enjoying the amount of detail you put into both US and international events.  Keep up the good work!

Its really good so far.... really depressing, though.

The Funeral of Fidel Castro:

The funeral of Fidel Castro is attended by dignitaries and officials from the around the world. A brief list of highlights:

President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela
President Daniel Scioli of Argentina
President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil
Former President Cristina Kirchner y Fernandez of Argentina
Former President Lula da Silva of Brazil
President Rafael Correa of Ecuador
President Evo Morales of Bolivia
Foreign Minister Heraldo Munoz of Chile
Foreign Minister Maria Angela Holguin Cuellar of Colombia
President Enrique Pena Nieto of Mexico
Foreign Minister Joyce Murray of Canada
Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander of the United Kingdom
Foreign Minister Grzegorz Schetnya of Poland
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov of Russia
EU Foreign Affairs Secretary Federica Mogherini
President Xi Jinping of the People's Republic of China

It is noted by many that the United States sends only its Chief of Mission John Caulfield to formally represent it, a factor widely reported in left-leaning Latin American news. Cuba-American US GOP candidate Ted Cruz and Senator Marco Rubio both give interviews condemning Castro's government and hoping that his death leads to the democratization of Cuba, while President Obama gives a vague press release stating that he hopes US-Cuban relations can improve in the future.

At the funeral, Nicolas Maduro gives a fiery speech about "Yankee imperialism" and promises to "honor, defend and continue the Socialist revolution that began in Havana sixty years ago." The tone of the speech, in light of the mass political violence and social unrest in his home country, is panned and criticized worldwide in all but the friendliest corners. Venezuelan opposition leaders state the the speech is a sign that Maduro needs to resign and enter power-sharing talks.

January 2016: Ted Cruz wins the Iowa caucuses narrowly over Scott Walker, with Rand Paul placing third. The order is as follows:

Cruz 22%
Walker 21%
Paul 19%
Perry 13%
Christie 10%

No other candidate breaches 5% in the caucuses. Jindal and Bush drop out, with Bush's performance considered especially surprising.

At the New Hampshire primary two weeks later, Christie and Paul place first and second, respectively, while the others are all in the single digits, creating an effective four-way race on the way to South Carolina. Rob Portman heads to Florida to concentrate his resources on an upset with there, while Ben Carson suspends his campaign.

An oil train derails in eastern Montana five miles outside of Forsyth in rural Rosebud County, starting a massive oil fire that takes days to put out. Governor Steve Bullock is applauded for his rapid mobilization of the Montana National Guard and twenty-hour workdays during the crisis. Environmentalists rally around the incident as a sign of unsafe fossil fuels, while the energy industry suggests that this is a good reason to expand pipeline capacity rather than use rail cars.

January 2016 (continued): Canadian Finance Minister Scott Brison submits the first budget of the Trudeau government, several months early. The budget has a long list of progressive measures including expanded family leave, an increase in the national minimum wage, a surtax on oil industry profits, tax credits for renewable energy, and a surcharge on financial transactions. The NDP and Green industry signal that they will back the budget and it passes easily. In France, Francois Hollande announces that he will not seek a second term as President. Venezuelan opposition paramilitaries capture the city of Miranda and enter a long siege with government forces and chavista paramilitaries. Colombia's FARC starts to move assets into Venezuela where they cannot be found as easily by the Colombian army and to regroup and align with chavista forces there.

February 2016: Ted Cruz narrowly wins the SC primary over Rand Paul, with 24% to Paul's 22%. Walker and Christie both take 14% and Perry is far back in fifth with only 8%. Perry drops out and endorses Cruz. Santorum endorses Cruz later the next day. President Obama gives his final State of the Union address, where he talks about his administration's achievements in health care, winding down two wars, addressing the VA, trade agreements and the shale energy revolution. In the address, he states, "the state of our union is strong, and growing stronger every day." Congress approves the TPP and TAFTA trade agreements on the last day of the month.

In the Florida primary, Rob Portman wins a surprise victory of 31% to Rand Paul's 20%, with Scott Walker and Ted Cruz tying at 18% apiece. Christie debates dropping out, but chooses to head to Michigan to campaign there instead while the others head to Nevada, with Cruz in particular hoping to cut off Rand Paul's momentum.

February 2016 (continued): Ed Miliband's government narrowly survives a confidence vote, their second such close call in the nine months since taking power. After a six-hour closed door caucus conference, Miliband emerges to announce that "while Parliament and Her Majesty retain confidence in my government and Cabinet, I have realized in recent weeks that I personally do not have the confidence of my Cabinet or party. As such, I will tender my resignation immediately and call on my caucus to hold a leadership election quickly and decisively." Harriet Harman becomes Acting Prime Minister with a formal leadership election scheduled for April. Miliband's premiership is the shortest in postward Britain.

And now, for Sports: In Super Bowl 50 in Santa Clara, CA, the Seattle Seahawks win their 2nd title in 3 seasons, defeating the Indianapolis Colts 27-21 with a last-minute touchdown score on a 22-yard run by Russell Wilson. Wilson is named Super Bowl MVP.

Glad to see Milliband out. But Cruz's candidacy scares me. I hope Portman or Walker will break ahead (Paul is collapsing, sadly),

March 2016: Hillary Clinton clinches all of the delegates she needs to become the 2016 Democratic Presidential nominee. In Nevada, Paul stages an unbelievable come-from-behind win to earn 30% of the primary's vote over Scott Walker with 29%, who enjoyed the endorsement and campaign operation of Governor Brian Sandoval. Rob Portman takes third, with Cruz in fourth and Christie, who barely campaigned in the state, in fifth. During a visit to St. Louis to speak on economic development, a gunman fires shots at President Obama. He misses by a wide margin and the President is safely evacuated with nobody hurt, and the gunman, an anti-government militiaman from northern Arkansas with a history of mental health issues, is promptly arrested.

March 2016 (continued): Saskatchewan and PEI return their incumbent governments to power with wide majorities. Talks are organized by EU Foreign Secretary Federica Mogherini between the competing camps in Venezuela. Violence in Israel escalates after Avigdor Lieberman gives an incendiary speech on the floor of the Knesset and Bibi finally agrees to a six-month halt in new settlement construction, a major victory for the Palestinians. Poroshenko and Yatseniuk agree to a power-sharing agreement with the Protectors of Ukraine Party, causing Putin to accuse them of inviting fascists into their government.

Ring of Fire: The Avachinsky volcano in Kamchatka has a VEI 5 eruption, the most powerful since Pinatubo, forcing the evacuation of thousands from neighboring cities and spewing massive ash clouds into the atmosphere that interrupt air travel and blanket much of northern China with thick ash clouds. For an eruption of its size, there are only 12 deaths, cited as a low number and signalling the usefulness of modern geological studies to predict volcanic eruptions and evacuate civilians in time.

April 2016: Super Tuesday! The RNC has set 20 states up to stage votes this day, meaning that more than half of the country will have staged primaries by this date. Cruz crushes Walker and Christie in the south, continuing his lead in the delegate count, though Paul places second in nearly every primary and wins in Mississippi. Christie wins Michigan after having spent most of the last month there. Walker wins Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Christie takes Maine and Massachusetts. No candidate drops out, though the math is becoming difficult for Paul. Obama sprains his ankle playing pickup basketball, and the image of him walking around in a boot is widely played not only on Fox News but on the late night comedy shows. As a consolation, his pick of Duke to win the Final Four is correct.

April 2016 (continued): Big month for news out of the Commonwealth: In Manitoba, the PC's under Brian Pallister win in a landslide, taking 51% of the vote and defeating the NDP, which loses its bid for a fifth term in government. Final seat count:

PC 36
NDP 12
Liberals 9

At the federal level, leadership election dates are set for the Tories and NDP for October and November, respectively. Mulcair will stay on until successor is elected, as previously promised. Ed Balls becomes Prime Minister of the UK after his caucus votes for him over Yvette Cooper, Chuka Umunna is moved to Chancellor of the Exchequer. Boris Johnson starts making noise about challenging Opposition Leader George Osborne for leadership. ISIS suffers a major string of defeats in northern Iraq at the hands of coalition airstrikes and peshmerga fighters.

Joaquin Check-in: In Venezuela six months after Hurricane Joaquin, thousands are still without power and food, the death toll is well over 90,000 people, half of the oil wells and pumps turned off from the storm and crisis have yet to be turned on, and the price of oil still has not risen enough to save the Maduro government. The refugee crisis continues unabated, with 13,000 Venezuelans now in Brazil and 10,000 in Colombia.

May 2016: The primaries continue on the GOP side. Christie wins the New York, California and Washington primaries, giving him a much-needed second wind and pulling him right behind Cruz in total delegates. Paul prevents Cruz from getting wins in Montana and Wyoming, but Cruz takes the huge states of Texas, North Carolina and, surprisingly, Maryland. Portman takes Ohio, his first win since Florida in February, but drops out anyways as the math is now impossible for him to win and he endorses Christie. Walker, who has not had a win since early April, drops out after polling shows him down to Christie in New Jersey and Illinois and down to Cruz in Virginia and Missouri. Walker declines to endorse any candidate. With three candidates left, most pundits expect Christie to benefit most from Walker and Portman dropping out of the race, but Cruz stuns the political world by sweeping Illinois, Virginia, Missouri and Oklahoma while Christie barely edges Paul in New Jersey. Paul drops out and endorses Cruz, setting up a crucial final primary in Utah and Connecticut in early June.

May 2016 (continued): Alan Peter Cayetano is elected as the next President of the Philippines, defeating Bong Revilla. After elections in April marred by irregularities and charges of tampering and voter intimidation, the Saenuri Party forms a weak coalition in the South Korean National Assembly after losing their majority. Erwin Pröll is elected President of Austria, pledging to only serve one term in the mostly ceremonial position.

And now, for Sports: In the UEFA Champions League, Juventus wins their third European Cup, defeating FC Barcelona 3-1 with two goals by Paul Pogba.

When did Portman drop out? What happened to that amazing Florida win?

Like several times on this timeline, I went too fast and forgot an important detail/event :P fixed it.

June 2016: Cruz clinches the Republican nomination with a win in the Utah primary and with Paul and Walker's delegates released to him. Though Portman encourages his delegates to swing to Christie in the days before the primary, it is too little, too late. Christie refuses to release his delegates at first, but the acquiesces by the end of June. Former US Rep Ralph Hall (R-TX) passes away at 93 years old, a year and a half after leaving office. Drought conditions in Texas continue, causing Greg Abbott to enforce water rationing, earning the ire of Tea Party conservatives who run sprinklers on their lawn in a sign of protest, deriding him for a "big government water quota."

June 2016 (continued): ISIS capital Raqqa falls in Syria to government forces, and neither side takes prisoners. ISIS responds by staging suicide attacks throughout Damascus, including in the government district. Refugees start to cause issues in Lebanon. Ukrainian soldiers capture and imprison the leaders of the Donetsk People's Republic after a renewed offensive, finally claiming control of most of the breakaway region with only Luhansk left to put down. Ed Balls' government survives yet another confidence vote, this time over a delayed budget with several tax hikes.

Meanwhile, in Louisiana: A big month in Louisiana - Governor David Vitter agrees to both expand Medicaid and create an ACA exchange in Louisiana, with the expansion modeled on the private plan program pioneered by Mike Beebe in Arkansas. Dow Chemical announces it will be relocating its headquarters from Midland, Michigan to downtown New Orleans. The New Orleans Pelicans win the 2016 NBA Finals in seven games over the Chicago Bulls, with Anthony Davis the Finals MVP, after a playoff run in which they had to win three straight seven-game series (including the Finals). President Obama is in attendance of the last game, played in Buffalo. The LSU Tigers men's baseball team wins the College World Series a few days later.

And now, for sports: Besides the NBA and CWS results, the Montreal Canadiens win the Stanley Cup in six games over the Los Angeles Kings, becoming the first Canadian team to win since 1993, when Montreal also won the Cup.

July 2016: A week before the RNC, Ted Cruz taps Rob Portman as his running mate, viewed largely as an effort to appease the center-right business wing of the party, and in an effort to rebuke both Christie and Walker, who ran significantly more negative campaigns towards Cruz, as well as Rand Paul, who in one debate stated that "America would be fundamentally unsafe under a Ted Cruz Presidency." Still, to heal the rift with the Paulist wing of the party, Cruz asks Paul to be the keynote speaker and has Marco Rubio introduce Paul. There are mass protests in Cleveland during the RNC, some of the largest at a convention in decades (though there is no violence or incidents with the police like Chicago '68).

July 2016 (continued): Russia shifts more weapons and armor into Ukraine, where the most violent conflict since the Yugoslav wars shows no sign of stopping. After a quasi-constitutional delay, the Greek general election is held on July 1st, and Syriza wins the most seats, entering an anti-austerity coalition with Independent Greeks and PASOK, which suffered massive losses. Golden Dawn fails to reach the threshold to enter government, with ND under Samaras forming the opposition. The new Tsipras government causes broad losses not only in European but global stock markets.

And now, for sports: At Euro 2016, Italy defeats the surprise of the tournament, Poland, to advance to the final for the second tournament in a row. Portugal defeats Germany in kickoffs to advance to the final, where Cristiano Ronaldo cues Portugal to a 1-0 victory in extra time over the Italians, giving them their first-ever major international championship. Ronaldo is the Player of the Tournament, while Robert Lewandowski has the most goals, with seven goals, two behind Platini's record and adding to his ten goals in the qualifying rounds, giving him 17 goals including qualifying, the best performance in UEFA history. Brazil's 2016 Olympics go off without a hitch or any of the protests that marred the 2013 Confederations Cup. Ryan Lochte wins three golds in swimming while Usain Bolt wins three golds, placing him in the all-time gold medalist rankings in what are viewed as likely being his final Olympic games.

Who does Hillary tap as her running mate?

August 2016: The Cruz-Portman ticket finds itself under fire from social conservatives, particularly NOM and Tony Perkins, and Cruz is forced to state at a campaign event in Lynchburg, VA (home of Liberty University): "My running mate's views on the marriage issue are his own. A Ted Cruz administration will fight for state's rights and traditional marriage." The statement makes the situation worse, alienating many of the pro-marriage equality moderates Cruz had hoped to appeal to with the Portman pick and at the same time igniting an unintended controversy over his use of the term "state's rights," with many in the media accusing him of using a dog whistle. Cruz backpedals further, claiming that he simply meant "I support the right of states to determine traditional marriage for themselves."

The DNC: At the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Hillary Clinton taps New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich as her running mate, signalling a desire to appeal to the West and to add a young rising star in the party to her administration. Heinrich's acceptance speech is widely applauded. Cory Booker is given the keynote speaker slot, and his speech is panned as being weak and derivative compared to Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop's, who introduces him.

August 2016 (continued): Hurricane Earl causes massive storm swells and rainstorms in Mexico after battering Cuba. A power-sharing agreement is tentatively formed in Venezuela after nearly a year of violence and with the economy and government in near-collapse, but many Socialist hardliners refuse to acknowledge the compromise President, Henrique Capriles Radonski, who would serve with Diosdado Cabello as Vice President and Tareck El Aissami as President of the National Assembly.

September 2016: Clinton stumbles when responding to a heckler at an event in Aurora, CO, her first real gaffe of the campaign. Outside spending groups continue to barrage Cruz over comments about "Dominionism" made by his father, Rafael. Cruz tries to backpedal by stating "my father's beliefs are his and his alone," and refuses to answer a question about whether he thinks non-Christians should be banned from holding office. Hurricane Gaston forms as a Category 5 over the Bahamas but weakens all the way to a Category 2 storm before hitting northern Florida, averting the kind of widespread damage and destruction left by Grace a year earlier in SC.

September 2016 (continued): Markets fall nearly 10% worldwide over two weeks as Alexi Tsipras threatens to engage in an "intentional, managed default" unless the Greek bailout terms are renegotiated. EU President Jean-Claude Juncker and German Chancellor Angela Merkel fly to Athens to meet with Tsipras, but no agreement is reached. Japan enters recession again and Shinzo Abe survives a secret ballot within his own party to maintain party leadership. An oil rig in the North Sea is heavily damaged in a storm swell and it takes four days for the Norwegian Navy to contain the flow, causing the worst oil spill since the 2010 BP spill. Heavy rainfall from Category 2 Hurricane Ian, which moves slowly across northern South America at the end of the month, causes flooding and mass power outages in Venezuela, exacerbating the problematic recovery from Joaquin a year earlier and leaving millions without power for weeks and along with the North Sea spill helps spike oil prices back above $80 a barrel for a month.

This is a great timeline! What are the polls looking like in the presidential and senate races?

October 2016: The debates are here! In the first debate, centered on domestic policy, Hillary Clinton hits Ted Cruz several times on "nihilism" and a "clear lack of a cohesive domestic agenda other than to complain, point fingers and throw sand in the face of respected members of both parties." Cruz, a champion debater in his youth, fires back on a still-mediocre (but improving) economy and claims "for those of you who have suffered for two Obama terms, I present myself as an alternative to a third." Post-debate surveys indicate that many viewers found Clinton to be icy and Cruz to be smug, with Clinton narrowly voted as having won the debate.

In the vice presidential debate, Portman performs awkwardly, giving wonkish arguments and statistics, while Heinrich sticks to a simple strategy. Heinrich is widely regarded as the winner, despite Portman's status and reputation as a respected Washington insider. Pundits and viewers applaud both men for their respectful, courteous tone in the debates.

The second Presidential debate, in a town hall format, is a disaster for Cruz, who insults a member of the audience for asking him about a GOP alternative to the now six-year old ACA, saying angrily, "When a socialist bill is passed, we repeal it. We don't do socialism in this country." Clinton also scores points by acknowledging, "The last eight years have been difficult economically for a lot of people. I know there are frustrations with my friend President Obama. I know sometimes it hasn't felt like he was making things better, and I understand that. I also know that people like Senator Cruz have been there for four to six years making things worse." Sean Hannity accuses Clinton of implying that Republicans have intentionally been trying to make the economy worse, and her wide lead in the poll narrows despite many thinking that she won the debate.

The third debate covers foreign policy. Cruz brings up Benghazi and the ISIS campaigns, Clinton responds that several GOP investigations have found nothing on Benghazi for years and that ISIS is in retreat. She does promise a "prominent" role for America in foreign policy and does allow that "the President and I haven't always been in agreement, and that's OK. He's the President." The debate is widely viewed as a wash.

October 2016 (continued): John Baird is elected the new federal leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, defeating Tony Clement and Jason Kenney on the third ballot. A deal is struck with the Greek government and the EU to avoid a catastrophic default on obligations. After mass protests by the ERC and a narrowly won confidence vote in Spain, Mariano Rajoy agrees to open up a constitutional debate about the structure of Spain to avoid another Catalonian crisis. Striking miners in South Africa are fired upon by local police, creating a major rift within the ruling ANC.

And now, for sports: In a four game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles, the Washington Nationals win the "I-95 Series" World Series, the first championship for a DC sports team since the Redskins in 1991.

My only nitpick is that Portman is known to be a strong debator. In Double Down, he was cited as Romney's debate coach and played Obama very well. In fact, the book said he was one of the strongest debators in Congress IIRC.

Even really good debaters sometimes drop the ball.

United States elections, 2016

Moving east to west, with breakdowns of major/significant races (note that the accumulation of electoral votes are not meant to represent poll closure times):

Maine

Presidential: Clinton-Heinrich easily carries Maine's two statewide electoral votes, winning the state popular vote 55% to 43%. The Democratic ticket carries ME-1 60% to 38%, and carries ME-2 52% to 47%.

ME-02: On the Democratic side is a rematch of the 2014 primary, with Troy Jackson facing off against Emily Cain. Though Cain was widely favored to win, Jackson scored an upset to face Bruce Poliquin in November. With both the Clinton and Cruz campaigns spending heavily in the district to try to swing its electoral vote, Jackson narrowly defeats Poliquin, 49% to 47%, with two independent candidates taking the rest of the vote. It is a rare case where the Clinton campaign runs ahead of a winning Democratic House candidate, rather than behind. D+1.

Maine Senate: Democrats flip two seats in the Maine Senate, leading to continued but narrowed Republican control, 18-17.

Maine House: Democrats expand their majority from 79-68-4 to 85-64-2.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 4
Cruz/Portman: 0

New Hampshire

Presidential: Despite heavy campaigning by Cruz surrogates Kelly Ayotte and Rob Portman, Clinton/Heinrich wins New Hampshire 54% to 44%, marking the first time in modern history New Hampshire has voted Democrat four elections in a row.

NH-Governor: Maggie Hassan declines to seek reelection (see below). The Republican primary is rambunctious, pitting former US Rep. and current Senate Majority leader Jeb Bradley against Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas. Bradley wins the primary by a wide margin to face Attorney General Joseph Foster. In the narrowest result in New Hampshire, Foster defeats Bradley 49.7 to 49.1, with a margin of only 1,000 votes. D hold.

NH-Senate: Maggie Hassan, the Democratic nominee after much lobbying throughout 2015, has no competition in the primary to face Ayotte, who is forced to stave off a Tea Party challenge from former House Speaker Bill O'Brien. No polling lead is outside the margin of error, with most pundits expecting a narrow Ayotte win. With Clinton's strength atop the ticket and with Hassan running up massive margins in Manchester and surrounding Hillsborough County, Ayotte is narrowly defeated, 50-48, and for the first time since the late 1970s, both of NH's Senators are Democrats. D+1.

NH-1: New Hampshire State Senator Donna Soucy jumps in to take on US Rep. Frank Guinta. Though Guinta leads in most independent and internal polls for most of the fall, the late break of the campaign towards Clinton in the Northeast helps carry Soucy narrowly over the line, winning 50% to 49%. D+1.

New Hampshire General Court: Democrats retake the State House, winning 210 seats to 180 seats for the Republicans, with 10 independents being seated. The State Senate becomes tied, 12D and 12R, and Governor Foster arranges a power-sharing agreement

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 7
Cruz/Portman: 0

Vermont

Presidential: Clinton/Heinrich easily takes Vermont's 3 electoral votes.

VT Governor: After his close call in 2014, Shumlin campaigns much harder after taking a very left turn in the 2015-16 legislative session and defeats Scott Milne once again, this time earning 55% of the vote.

VT Senate: Patrick Leahy is easily reelected to an eighth term in the US Senate, already Vermont's longest-serving Senator.

VT Legislature: The Progressive Party scores a few upsets over Democrats, but the Democratic Party maintains control of both houses of the Vermont Legislature.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 10
Cruz/Portman: 0

See: First Presidential Debate, Barack Obama's performance

@KingSweden - I love the insane amount of work you've put into this timeline. It's really well done all around. Keep it up!

(though I must say this Cruz-Portman ticket makes me want to cry) :P

I can see this all happening. In general, it's pretty good detail. A few months a post a post about once a day. It looks like Hillary will do reasonably well as Obama has left this country firmly breaking even in fortune as civilization in the rest of the continues to steadily decline after failing to fully recover from the last major melt down.

Thanks! I'm glad you guys like it. I'm very flattered by the positive response to this TL :)

My one nitpick was my only nitpick; this timeline has been awesome! Keep up the awesome work!

As someone who has lurked for a while and love all the timelines posted on here, yours has made me want to give some encouragement. Keep going!

United States elections, 2016

Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island

Presidential: All three states are easily won by Hillary Clinton, with Massachusetts giving 66% of its vote to her, Connecticut and Rhode Island going 60% and 64%, respectively. Cruz is cited as being an especially poor fit for MA's voters.

CT Senator: Richard Blumenthal is easily reelected, defeating State Rep. Larry Cafero, the incumbent House Minority Leader. Blumenthal takes 69% of the vote, a significantly higher share than in his first election campaign.

US House: All representatives from Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island are easily reelected, although David Cicilline has a tough runoff against former Providence Mayor Angel Taveras.

State Houses: Democratic majorities are expanded in all six houses of the state assemblies of Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island as top-ticket candidates roll to easy wins.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 32
Cruz/Portman: 0

Is this going to be a Democratic slobber fest?

He's writing a good timeline, and this is all you can come up with? Aren't you infatuated with Susan Collins because she's "above partisanship" or something?

58 and 57?

Hillary Clinton would probably get at least 63-64% in both Massachusetts and Rhode Island and 60% in Connecticut, as Ted Cruz is a really poor candidate for all three states.

That's kind of low for RI...CT sounds high ish though.

I sincerely hope those low margins don't mean a big Cruz win in other states....

Oh god is the Cruz wave building? :(

United States elections, 2016

New York

Presidential: Hillary Clinton wins a blowout in New York state, taking 67.8% of the vote to 31.3% for Ted Cruz, who wins the lowest raw vote total and percentage for a GOP candidate in the state since Barry Goldwater. It is also the biggest two-party vote spread since that same 1964 election.

NY Senate: Chuck Schumer is easily reelected with over 60% of the vote, running slightly behind Hillary Clinton; no prominent Republicans attempt a run against him.

NY-1: Despite investing millions into electing State Senators in Republican-held Long Island districts, the New York Democratic Party is unable to attract a top flight recruit to take on US Rep. Lee Zeldin and so Zeldin is elected to a second term over a local businessman.

NY-2: Peter King does not retire as was widely expected and so cruises to another term.

NY-11: After Michael Grimm is convicted in late 2015, a special election is scheduled for the spring to elect his replacement. Former US Rep Mike McMahon, Grimm's predecessor, runs for the Democrats against Staten Island Borough President James Oddo. McMahon wins the special election and is reelected to a full term in his own right in November. D+1.

NY-13: Charlie Rangel retires and Adriano Espaillat wins the Democratic primary, tantamount to election in this district.

NY-18: Sean Maloney wins his reelection campaign 54-45, a much wider margin than his narrow 2014 win, over Putnam County Exec Mary Ellen Odell.

NY-19: Chris Gibson is reelected to a fourth term in office, defeating a Delaware County Supervisor 56-42. He tacks to the center in his race, emphasizing his moderate credentials.

NY-21: Elise Stefanik is reelected narrowly to a second term in office, 50-48, over a retired Major who was stationed at Fort Drum. Her campaign focuses heavily on the fact that he was not born and raised in Upstate New York.

NY-22: Richard Hanna is defeated by Utica Mayor Robert Palmieri by a margin of only 1,500 votes. Palmieri wins 49-48. D+1.

NY-23: Incumbent Tom Reed is defeated by 29-year old Svante Myrick, the mayor of Ithaca, who becomes upstate New York's first black Congressman, 51-49 in one of the narrowest races of the cycle. D+1.

NY-24: Incumbent John Katko is defeated by Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner, a moderate Democrat, losing 57-40.

NY-25: Incumbent Louise Slaughter retires after 32 years in Congress and is replaced by Rochester Mayor Lovely Warren, who becomes the first black Congresswoman from Upstate New York.

NY Leg: The GOP has lost it's majority! With an unprecedented effort by the NY State Democratic Party, led by Bill de Blasio and the WFP faction, to primary out IDC members and to target swing district Republicans, particularly ones elected prior to the 2000s, the Democrats pick up three GOP-held seats and knock off four IDC members and Ruben Diaz, Sr. Dean Skelos, the longtime Senate Majority Leader, and Senate Dean Kenneth LaValle, both lose their Long Island seats. The NY Dems also pick up two seats in the NY House, leading to unilateral - and significantly more left-leaning - control of Albany.

Clinton/Heinrich: 61
Cruz/Portman: 0

This is what I get for skimping on my research and pulling numbers out of my ass. I apologize to everyone for the error, I'll fix it tomorrow. :P

Just stumbled across this timeline, despite the fact that this is rather horrible politically (well for me at least), I'm very impressed with the detail on both US and international events.

On a related note, do Tony Abbott and the Coalition survive the 2016 election in Australia in this timeline? Noted Harper and Cameron's fates, particularly Cameron's, but was wondering how their fellow Commonwealth leader fared.

I'm aiming for a January 2017 election for Tony Abbott... as for whether they survive, you'll just have to wait and see :) speaking of which, how exactly does the Australian Senate work? Are they directly elected too?

Hanna losing probably means the rest of them lose too, considering he was unopposed this cycle. Great level of detail nevertheless.

United States elections, 2016

New Jersey

Presidential: Hillary Clinton carries New Jersey with 61% of the vote, the highest percentage for a Democratic candidate in the state since 1964. Cruz's camp blames Christie not campaigning enthusiastically for him in the state for the lopsided margin, though Christie counters that Cruz barely ever visited the state, with Cruz (rightfully, in most pundits' opinions) focusing his attention on swing states instead.

NJ-2: Frank LoBiondo is defeated at last, losing by only 312 votes to Bill Hughes, Jr., the son of his predecessor. It is considered one of the biggest upsets of the night. D+1.

NJ-3: Despite heavy Democratic investment in this district, Tom MacArthur survives a rematch against Aimee Belgard, winning this time by 52-47 instead of by an 11 point margin.

All other congressional incumbents are reelected, and there are no retirements.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 75
Cruz/Portman: 0

I'll admit not knowing much about New York politics. I wanted to have a Dem recruiting flop here or there, hence Zeldin making it, but I wasn't sure if Gibson would survive or not. I know his district is the most D-friendly of them all, figured he was just a solid politician.

Not bad KingSweeden. My only nitpick is Super Bowl 50. Colts beat Seahawks 21-20 on a last second Luck pass to Reggie Wayne instead of last minute Wilson touchdown. Still keep it coming.

There's always next year ;) thanks for reading!

United States elections, 2016

Maryland

Presidential: Cruz, a bad fit ideologically for the (Altas) red state to begin with and with many federal employees still remembering and blaming him for the 2013 government shutdown, is hammered in Maryland, with Clinton winning 64.7 percent of the vote, one of her highest totals in the country and continuing her impressive dominance in the Northeast.

US Senator: In a surprise to no one, John Sarbanes is elected to replace Barbara Mikulski, keeping the streak of Democratic members of the 3rd House District being elevated to the Senate alive. The GOP recruits Bob Ehrlich, who rather reluctantly agrees to run and is regarded as their best-possible candidate. After dispatching of David Craig in the primary, Ehrlich loses to Sarbanes 68%-31%, after Maryland GOP officials had plugged the race as a potential reach state for them to go on the offensive in.

US House: All House incumbents are reelected, In open-seat Maryland 03, there is a rematch of the 2013 Annapolis mayoral race, as Josh Cohen defeats his successor and the man that defeated him, Mike Pantelides, 58-40. Pantelides, a moderate Republican, is cited as "one of the most impressive, consensus-based politicians in Maryland history" and the race is said to give him exposure that he can use in the future, with Governor Larry Hogan suggesting he is a potential future Governor.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 85
Cruz/Portman: 0

United States election, 2016

Delaware

Presidential: With a Gubernatorial campaign in full swing and Joe Biden campaigning locally, Clinton romps yet again, winning all three counties and taking the state 60.1% to 39.7%.

DE Governor: Beau Biden defeats Colin Bonini and is elected Governor of Delaware with 64% of the vote.

DE Legislature: Democrats expand their majority in both houses.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 88
Cruz/Portman: 0

The Australian Senate is a directly-elected body, 40 members (half of the 72 state members, plus the four territorial members) are up at each election, aside from House-only elections. Senators are elected by proportional representation in each state/territory.

You can read more about the Senate and its voting system here. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Senate#Voting_system)

I'm liking it so far, especially the bit about Martin Heinrich; I remembering volunteering for him briefly about 6 years ago, nice guy.

I was split between him and Heather Wilson for Senate as she is one of the few Republicans that I admire.

P.S. Think about Wilson for something future in a timeline :)

United States elections, 2016

Pennsylvania

Presidential: Clinton defeats Cruz 53-46, her narrowest margin in the Northeast. Cruz outperforms typical GOP numbers in southern, central and Western PA, where he campaigned with Portman on his support for expanded energy production, but underpolled in suburban Philadelphia (particularly in crucial Bucks and Montgomery), where Clinton runs up healthy margins and blows him out in Philadelphia, which sees Obama '08 levels of turnout.

PA Senate: With neither candidate facing serious primary opposition, Joe Sestak faces off against US Senator Pat Toomey in the marquee Senate race of the cycle. Though Toomey narrowly leads in polling for much of the summer, the race starts to break for Sestak in early September as Clinton expands her Presidential lead and he defeats Toomey by a mirror-image 52-48, roughly the same margin as his own loss in 2010. D+1.

PA-2: Chaka Fattah resigns in early 2015 and is replaced by Philadelphia DA Seth Williams in a special election. Williams faces former Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter in the 2016 primary, winning by a surprisingly large margin, and coasts to a full term in his own right in the fall.

PA-6: First term Congressman Ryan Costello faces State Senator Judy Schwank in the general election. With the Clinton campaign pouring millions into the Philly suburbs, Costello is narrowly defeated by Schwank, 50.2-49.5. D+1.

PA-7: Pat Meehan attracts State Rep. Matt Bradford as his opponent, and the race is hard-fought, with the Clinton campaign's heavy investments in the Delaware Valley threatening to sink the three-term incumbent. Meehan is unable to run significantly ahead of the Cruz ticket, however, and loses 51-48 in the second-narrowest race in Pennsylvania. D+1.

PA-8: After the retirement of Mike Fitzpatrick, former Lt. Gov. Jim Cawley enters the race and faces former US Rep. Patrick J. Murphy, who represented the seat from 2007-2011 and had both defeated and been defeated by Fitzpatrick. In another tight suburban Philly race, Cawley is defeated 52-48 by Murphy, who returns to Congress after a six year absence. D+1.

PA-14: Michael Doyle retires from Congress after eleven terms, and the primary pits former (and controversial) Pittsburgh Mayor Luke Ravenstahl against State Rep. Paul Costa. In the primary, Costa brings up the numerous controversies during the Ravenstahl administration, while the former Mayor cites his youth and rigor. It is one of the ugliest primaries of the year, and Ravenstahl narrowly wins over the veteran Costa. In this heavily Democratic district, Ravenstahl cruises in the general.

PA-15: Charlie Dent faces Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski, recruited (as many Democratic candidates) as part of the DCCC's "Mayor Majority" program. Pawlowski runs a spirited campaign but fails to unseat the veteran Dent, who is the lone survivor of PA's Republicans in vulnerable districts. Dent wins 53-46.

All other House incumbents, particularly Republicans in the inner part of the state, are elected by broad margins.

PA State Legislature: Democrats pick up one Senate seat, reducing the GOP majority to 29-21, but pick up 14 House seats, narrowing the GOP majority to 105-98. In both cases, Democrats defeat many moderate Republicans, leading to smaller and more conservative GOP caucuses.

PA Row Officers: Kathleen Kane is reelected to a second term as AG despite some ethics questions, Eugene DePasquale is reelected as State Auditor by a landslide, and Josh Shapiro is elected State Treasurer narrowly over State Senator Patrick Browne.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 108
Cruz/Portman: 0

On that same note, do you know anything about how special elections in New Mexico work? (Not to give anything away, of course, but... well, IF Clinton/Heinrich were to win, does Martinez pick his successor?)

Thanks for reading, btw!

Thanks!

Those Pennsylvania results hurt, but Cruz did surprisingly well in the state considering some of the results I've seen.

Not looking good for the GOP, sadly. Keep up the awesome work, and I really enjoy your format.

Keep going!!

Well we certainly haven't had  one of those in a while (recall the longtime incumbency of Domenici and Bingaman) so I just looked it up and it appears that in NM the governor makes an appointment of their choosing and then they can run for reelection or be replaced in the next gen. election. I can't post links yet but the NCSL has a great page on the rules for this.

That's not true for NJ, remember Jeff Chiesa (R) replaced Frank Lautenberg (D) immediately after he died.

Yeah, you're right. I misread the table of information and that's only true for a few states. ^{It's getting late}

United States elections, 2016

West Virginia

Presidential: Despite some Democrats claiming that Clinton could make a race in West Virginia, an ancestrally Democratic stronghold, Cruz/Portman wins 60.3 percent of the vote there to Clinton's 38.2, nearly matching Mitt Romney's blowout 2012 win. Clinton did not campaign in WV, and Cruz only made two visits, with the state considered safe for the GOP by the Clinton team.

Governor: The reddening of West Virginia continues as Attorney General Patrick Morrissey defeats State Auditor Glen Gainer III 54-46. Morrissey becomes the first Republican Governor of the state since Cecil Underwood and for the first time, WV GOP has total, unified control of the state government. SOS Natalie Tennant, Ag Com Walt Helmick and State Treasurer John Perdue are all reelected to their offices, somewhat stemming the (Atlas) blue tide in the state. R+1.

WV State Senate: Republicans win an additional 3 seats in the State Senate, beefing up their total to 21-13.

WV State House: Republicans expand on their majorities from 2014, winning two more seats in the State House to 66-34.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 108
Cruz/Portman: 5

Kentucky

Presidential: Ideologically similar to West Virginia, Clinton nevertheless does campaign a few times in Kentucky with former Governor Steve Beshear and Senate candidate Adam Edelen, the State Auditor. Though there was talk early in the cycle of putting Kentucky in play, Clinton pulls out in early September. Cruz/Portman carries Kentucky 55/44, the best result for a Democrat since the 1990s.

KY Senate: Despite a spirited campaign from Adam Edelen, Rand Paul is reelected as Senator for Kentucky, 54-46.

KY-1: Former Marine and MoH recipient Dakota Meyer runs in the GOP primary against Ed Whitfield, attacking him from the left and stating a desire to "get things done." Meyer runs as a problem-solver, pledging to "work with anyone who wants to solve problems, like we do in the Marines" and to bring a "Marine's mentality" to DC. In a major upset, Meyer defeats Whitfield, a member of the 1994 freshman class, 52-48 in the primary. He goes on to easily win the general election.

KY State House: The state house is retained, once again, by Democrats, who this time in fact expand their majority to 57-43. The Democrats also pick up three Senate seats, cutting the GOP advantage to 23-15.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 108
Cruz/Portman: 13

I'll have to take a look at the NCSL site, thanks!

United States elections, 2016

Tennessee

Presidential: The state is mostly ignored by both candidates, regarded as safe by both camps. Cruz carries Tennessee's 11 electoral votes 57.4-41.5, with Clinton only once appearing on behalf of Jim Cooper in Nashville.

TN-4: Scott DesJarlais is once again primaried by a State Senator from his district, this time Murfreesboro's own Bill Ketron, best known for introducing bills to ban Sharia law in Tennessee. Ketron manages to dislodge DesJarlais from office this time, and is arguably more conservative than the Congressman he replaces.

TN Legislature: Republicans hold their 27-6 advantage in the State Senate and lose three seats in the State House to drop to a still-commanding 70-29 majority.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 108
Cruz/Portman: 24

Virginia

Presidential: The state remains uncalled for much of the night, with Cruz maintaining a lead in southern and western VA that is far too precarious for his team to feel comfortable. Strong turnout in Richmond and record turnout in NoVA results in a call for Clinton, and by the time the counting is over Clinton has a 54-44 advantage, a much wider disparity than expected. Clinton's strong performance is credited to strong turnout amongst minorities and affluent NoVA suburbanites who angrily remember Cruz's government shutdown. Many pundits are stunned that Clinton performed better in Virginia than in Pennsylvania. Terry McAuliffe's presence as Governor is over-stated as a reason for Clinton's strong performance.

VA Redistricting: After the court-ordered redistricting, the districts are redrawn and renumbered. A second majority-minority district is created by creating a Hampton Roads district containing Norfolk, Portsmouth, Newport News, Hampton and the adjacent peninsula. Per tradition, as this district contains Jamestown and Williamsburg, it is renumbered as the first district. Much of Chesapeake is instead included in VA-2 to make up for population loss, VA-4 is moved westwards and loops around northwards to take up parts of VA-7, which shifts northwest to make up in the old VA-7, while the old VA-1 and VA-3 are shifted into the rest of the old VA-7. The original VA-1 is renumbered as VA-7, with Rob Wittman remaining as the US Rep, and Randy Forbes retires rather than run against Scott Rigell. With these major changes, here are the occurrences in the VA districts as follows:

VA-1: In this now-Democratic district, State Senator Kenny Alexander is elected by a comfortable margin after Bobby Scott elects to retire rather than run here after 24 years in Congress, choosing instead to become the President of Old Dominion University. D+1.

VA-2: In his Pure Tossup district, Scott Rigell is reelected when Democrats fail to field a formidable challenger to him.

VA-3: With Bobby Scott drawn into the first and then retiring, this majority-minority district instead elects State Senator A. Donald McEachin to the House.

VA-4: Randy Forbes' home was moved into VA-2 and thus this seat came open. Delegate Rick Morris, a former JAG officer from the Sussex/Southampton area, is elected to the seat. The new district stretches from the North Carolina state line, past Richmond's western suburbs and exurbs all the way to western Prince William County, and is Lean R.

VA-5: Robert Hurt's district is made slightly more Democratic and faces a tough fight, only narrowly defeating Charlottesville Mayor Satyendra Huja by 1500 votes. Huja is supported in the race by former US Rep. Tom Perriello, who very nearly entered the race but decided at the last minute not to.

VA-6: Bob Goodlatte reelected soundly.

VA-7: In the new VA-7, which is similar to the old VA-1, Rob Wittman is easily reelected in his solidly Republican district.

VA-8: Don Beyer, in a somewhat modified district, is reelected in a landslide.

VA-9: Morgan Griffith is reelected unopposed.

VA-10: With this district now a lean Democratic district after redistricting, and the Clinton/McAuliffe team seeking to knock out the former Clinton investigator Barbara Comstock, a great deal of money is spent on her defeat. State Senator Jennifer Wexton enters the race and defeats Comstock 55-44, a surprisingly wide margin, on Clinton's NoVA coattails. D+1.

VA-11: Gerry Connolly is elected with nearly 70% of the vote.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 121
Cruz/Portman: 24

United States elections, 2016

North Carolina

Presidential: Clinton campaigns furiously in North Carolina towards the end of the campaign, trying to buttress her leads elsewhere and push the Democratic candidates for Governor and Senator over the line. No state besides Ohio receives more campaign visits from both Clinton and Cruz, and the state comes down to the wire once again, narrowly going 51.2/48.2 for Clinton, the narrowest result in the country. North Carolina is not called until November 9th, at which point the world already knew Clinton had been elected President.

NC Governor: Pat McCrory faces down Attorney General Roy Cooper in the marquee race of the cycle. Cooper runs against McCrory and the legislature, calling the Governor a "rubber stamp, not a check, on the North Carolina House and Senate." Cooper runs as an agent of change with a detailed ten-point economic plan many doubt he can get passed through the conservative legislature, but he nevertheless wins by a surprisingly comfortable 52-43, with a Libertarian candidate taking 5% of the vote. D+1.

NC Row Officers: Former State Senator Don Davis is elected Lieutenant Governor of North Carolina, the first African-American statewide officeholder. State Senator Josh Stein is elected North Carolina Attorney General. Former US Rep. Heath Shuler is elected Treasurer of North Carolina.

NC Senate: As the national picture deteriorates for Republicans throughout September and October, Richard Burr emerges as a suddenly vulnerable incumbent as the Clinton campaign turns its attention towards fostering a potential Senate majority. Facing State Treasurer Janet Cowell, Burr lags in fundraising behind the disciplined Cowell operation and runs what is regarded as an unenergetic campaign. Though Burr is favored going into election night, Cowell stuns Burr, winning by only 4000 votes to keep the North Carolina tradition of ousting incumbent Senators alive and well. D+1.

NC House: No incumbents retire or are defeated.

NC Legislature: The Republicans lose two Senate seats to drop to a 32-18 advantage, while losing six seats in the House to go to a 68-52. Many of the successful Democrats who win are quite conservative in nature.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 136
Cruz/Portman: 24

United States elections, 2016

South Carolina

Presidential: Cruz roughly matches Romney's performance, winning slightly less than a million votes but carrying the state 53.8-44.1 SC has some of the election's lowest turnout.

SC Senate: Tim Scott is easily reelected to a full term in his own right, facing almost no serious opposition besides a Columbia city councilman.

SC-6: Jim Clyburn retires. He is replaced by State Senator Joel Lourie, a white Columbia Democrat who wins the primary when it is split between two rural African-American candidates. South Carolina has an all-white delegation again for the first time since the early 1990s.

SC General Assembly: The Republican Senate majority expands thanks to low turnout, increasing to 30 to 16, while the House majority actually shrinks by one seat, to 77-47. Many longtime Democrats retire in the House, resulting in younger candidates rising to take their place.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 136
Cruz/Portman: 33

Georgia

Presidential: In Georgia's first year as an official, full-blown Presidential battleground, it receives the third-most visits of any candidate. Cruz's strong social conservatism is a big winner in Atlanta's very conservative suburbs, while Clinton and the Georgia Democrats register voters heavily and local progressive organizations use an influx of funding to help locals navigate voter ID laws to make sure they are registered to vote. Nevertheless, Georgia is an (Atlas) bluer tint of purple, going narrowly to Cruz 52-47. Democrats earn just shy of two million votes, their biggest raw vote total in Georgia history, but record turnout for Cruz in very conservative suburbs and exurbs cuts them short of their goal. If anything, the results reveal the state to be very polarized politically.

GA Senate: Johnny Isakson faces State Rep. Stacey Abrams. As is widely predicted, Isakson defeats her by a 54-44 margin, handily avoiding a runoff, though Abrams is able to improve upon the raw vote count and turnout numbers for Democrats from the disastrous election two years before.

GA House: No incumbents retire or are defeated. The entire delegation is returned for the 115th Congress.

GA General Assembly: In the Georgia House, Republicans lose a net of four seats to drop their majority to 116, while Democrats defeat the member of the Independent Party to get a net gain of 5, giving them a 64-seat minority. In the Georgia Senate, the Republican majority is narrowed to 37-19.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 136
Cruz/Portman: 49

United States elections, 2016

Alabama

Presidential: A thoroughly uncompetitive contest, despite some stray Clinton ads aired in Birmingham in late October because hey, why not? Cruz is a much more engaging figure to Alabama conservatives than McCain or Romney and so drives GOP turnout above the 1.3 million votes mark, while Democrats manage to turn out 800,000 voters again. Cruz wins 62-35, one of the biggest blowouts since the 1970s.

AL Senate: Mo Brooks challenges Richard Shelby, a 30-year incumbent, from the right. Brooks is embraced by much of the grass roots right and is a far more credible challenger than Chris McDaniel was to Thad Cochran. Shelby runs against Brooks' "war of whites" interview and paints himself as a "true Southern gentleman" as opposed to a "supremacist nut," and argues that Brooks is beholden to "a mouthpiece establishment outside of Alabama." While many are offended by Shelby's race-baiting campaign, it works - record black turnout occurs in the Republican (and open) primary, helping push Shelby over the 50 percent mark needed to avoid a runoff against Brooks and a few minor candidates. Brooks states angrily that "today Shelby was renominated to a sixth term as our Republican Senator by a bunch of Democrats," but does not pursue the legal challenges of McDaniel. Shelby easily cruises to victory against a low-level Democratic county official, winning with over 70% of the vote.

AL-5: With Brooks out, there is a six-way primary to replace him. State Senator Arthur Orr from Madison County wins the primary and the ensuing runoff and cruises to an easy general election win nearly uncontested against an underfunded Huntsville NASA engineer.

AL Legislature: No change in the composition of either chamber, all incumbents of both parties easily reelected.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 136
Cruz/Portman: 58

Mississippi

Presidential: With no statewide offices contested, this becomes the big-ticket race. Clinton never attempts to contest the election here, and Cruz wins easily, 55-44.

MS-1: With health problems carrying over from the prior term, three-term Congressman Alan Nunnelee announces his intention to retire at the end of the 115th Congress. In a wild Republican primary, the surprise winner is 36-year old State Rep Brad Mayo of Oxford, who wins a runoff against former Democrat and current GOP State Senator Nickey Browning of Pontotoc. Mayo defeats Democratic State Senator Bill Stone 53-46 in the general election.

All other house incumbents are easily reelected without significant primary or general election opposition.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 136
Cruz/Portman: 64

United States elections, 2016

Ohio

Presidential: Along with NC, OH is the most-visited state in the Union, with Cruz spending four straight days there at the end of the campaign and Clinton drawing large rallies across the state. Polling shows the two candidates neck-and-neck and Cruz stages his final campaign rally there before returning to Texas on election night. Early returns show decent numbers for Clinton in Democratic hubs like Cleveland, Youngstown, Columbus and Toledo, while Cruz does not see the kinds of numbers he needs in SW Ohio, where he focused his campaign on the dying coal industry. From a GOP perspective, Ohio is called brutally early for Democrats, and Hillary winds up carrying the state 52-46, a yawning margin for Cruz to lose the quintessential swing state by, especially with a home-state Senator on his ticket.

OH Senate: With Portman out, US Rep. Steve Stivers defeats three State Senators in the primary to advance to face fellow US Rep. Tim Ryan, for whom the Democratic field is cleared. The race is tight, with Portman appearing often to campaign for Stivers. Some in the Cruz camp criticize Portman for focusing more on electing a GOP successor than President, which Portman's handlers snipe back is nonsense. Stivers leads in the early returns, but as votes from NE and central Ohio trickle in, Ryan edges into the lead. He winds up winning by 42,000 votes, 50.1-49.8. D+1.

OH-9: Marcy Kaptur retires after 17 terms in Congress. Former State Rep. Mat Szollosi jumps into the race and wins easily over nominal Republican opposition, with the field largely cleared on his behalf.

OH-10: State Rep. and Ohio House Democratic leader Fred Strahorn jumps into the race to take on Mike Turner, in the most D-friendly GOP district in Ohio. Strahorn runs one of the best campaigns of the cycle as a centrist reformer and defeats Turner by a 2,100 vote margin, unseating the 7-term incumbent. D+1.

OH-13: With Tim Ryan stepping down to run for Senate, he is replaced by State Rep. Zack Milkovich, who defeats a Youngstown-area car dealer with nearly 60% of the vote.

OH-14: David Joyce, at one time regarded as potentially vulnerable, cruises to reelection over a gaffe-prone Democratic candidate who is cut off by the Ohio Democratic Party, working towards a disciplined return to prominence.

OH-15: With Steve Stivers retiring to run for Senate, Rep. Stephanie Kunze faces Senator Jim Hughes for the seat. In a narrow primary election, Hughes defeats Kunze and faces Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman in the fall. In a surprisingly narrow contest, Hughes only beats Coleman by 6,000 votes, but holds the seat for the GOP.

OH-16: Betty Sutton returns to face US Rep. Jim Renacci and in a much more favorable climate in Ohio manages to narrowly defeat him despite a late pour of money on his behalf from the MSP, NRCC and Chamber of Commerce. D+1.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 154
Cruz/Portman: 64

United State elections, 2016

Indiana

Presidential: Despite nominal Democratic investment, this state is not targeted to the same extent as North Carolina, Georgia, Missouri or Arizona. Despite some appearances in Indianapolis and South Bend, Clinton accepts by the last week of the campaign that Indiana is not happening. Still, Cruz only narrowly wins the state, carrying it 51.6-48.3.

IN Senate: Dan Coats retires, as is expected, after only one term. This sets up a primary between US Reps. Marlin Stutzman and Todd Young after Attorney General Greg Zoeller declines to run. Though both are fairly conservative, Stutzman seizes the Tea Party mantle while Young runs as a pro-business, center-right candidate intent on reminding everyone of Stutzman's "we don't know what that is" gaffe during the 2013 shutdown. Endorsements and outside spending line up behind the two accordingly. The primary becomes ugly, with increasingly personal attacks flying between the two camps, and there is an altercation between rival supporters at a Young campaign event. Young winds up winning the primary 49-46, seen as a rebuke to Mike Pence, who supported Stutzman.

On the Democratic side, Evan Bayh declines to run, and Brad Ellsworth decides to seek the Governor's office instead. Pete Visclosky, the dean of the Indiana delegation, decides to jump in instead, viewing a Senate term as the "capstone" of his career, promising to only serve one term if elected. Young campaigns against Visclosky as a "Gary liberal" and a "rubber stamp for the Obama-Clinton agenda." Despite an investment by the DSCC, Visclosky loses in a surprisingly narrow 52-48 race.

IN-Governor: Brad Ellsworth challenges Mike Pence. Though leading comfortably in the summer, the decline of the GOP ticket nationwide tightens the race, and on election night Ellsworth is ahead for much of the count until Pence narrowly edges into the lead on the second day of counting. Ellsworth demands a recount when the tally shows Pence only 1,100 votes ahead of him. After a recount, Ellsworth concedes when Pence's lead shrinks slightly, but not enough to allow him to become Governor. It is the second consecutive tight race for Mike Pence.

IN-1: With Visclosky's retirement, former State Attorney General and current Gary Mayor Karen Freeman-Wilson is elected to replace him, defeating a Republican car dealership owner with over 60% of the vote.

IN-2: In the surprise race of the season, Jackie Walorski attracts the DCCC's attention as they try to recruit South Bend Mayor Peter Buttigieg into the race, but he remains adamant that he will serve out his second term in office - with rumors flying that his eye is on the 2020 Governor's race. Instead, the DCCC recruits John Broden, a State Senator from South Bend, to run instead. While Walorski's race is Lean R for most of the cycle, Broden's energetic campaign and support from Joe Donnelly and Bayh pushes it into Tossup territory despite Cruz's relative strength atop the ticket. Clinton, Ellsworth and Visclosky all carry the district narrowly, and Broden rides their coattails to win 50.3-49.2 over Walorski. D+1.

IN-3: With Stutzman retiring to run for Senate, Democrats under the "Mayor Majority" program recruit Fort Wayne Mayor Tom Henry to run for the seat in this conservative district. A crowded six-way GOP primary produces State Senator Dennis Kruse, who runs an anemic campaign for most of the summer and only narrowly defeats Henry, winning by a mere 2,000 votes in a race he should have taken in a blowout.

IN-9: With Young retiring to run for Senate, Republicans run Jeffersonville Mayor Mike Moore against State Rep. Steve Stemler. Moore is elected in a landslide.

Indiana Row Officers: Greg Zoeller retires as Attorney General and is replaced, in an upset, by Marion County Prosecutor Terry Curry, a Democrat, who defeats Republican State Senator Mike Delph.

Indiana General Assembly: Democrats narrow the Republican supermajority in the State Senate, taking four seats to put the GOP control at 34-16, and slash the House supermajority from 70-30 to 64-36. Along with the Attorney General upset and knocking off Jackie Walorski, Indiana Democrats have their best performances in decades.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 154
Cruz/Portman: 75

United States elections, 2016

Michigan

Presidential: Cruz campaigns in the Detroit suburbs early in the campaign, touching on the theme of "what happened to Detroit will happen to America under a third Obama term." Rand Paul criticizes Cruz for not going into Detroit and tying to reach out to the "people who have actually been affected." The public row ignores Clinton's comfortable leads in the state, as she dispatches surrogates to rally support statewide. Cruz's numbers in the state start to sink beneath the typical Republican floor. Clinton carries the state 57-42, an unexpectedly wide margin, buoyed by strong support in both urban and suburban SE Michigan.

MI-1: As promised, Dan Benishek retires after three terms in Congress. For the now-open seat, Democrats run 2014 nominee Jerry Cannon, who takes a similar pledge as Benishek's and promises to only serve three terms "if elected and by the grace of God and the voters of the 1st District, reelected." Cannon faces Republican Peter Pettalia, the Majority Caucus Chair in the Michigan House. In a tight, narrow election, Cannon defeats Pettalia 54-45. D+1.

MI-3: Establishment Republicans try once again to oust Justin Amash, this time targeting him with Grand Rapids Mayor George Heartwell. Amash crushes Heartwell in the primary, angrily calls out GOP leaders for their continued attempts to drive him out of office, and wins handily in the general.

MI-6: Fred Upton, considered the most vulnerable Republican in Michigan, faces Democrat Sean McCann. Despite heavy spending against Upton by the DCCC, Upton wins 54-45 against McCann, who runs a troubled and weak campaign. Mark Schauer was recruited briefly to run against Upton, but declined when McCann entered the race, not wanting to cause a contested primary.

MI-7: Tim Walberg is targeted by Washtenaw County Prosecutor Brian Mackie, who, with Clinton carrying the Detroit suburbs by wide margins, defeats the veteran Congressman 51-47 in a tight race that features a well-funded independent. D+1.

MI-8: Democrats identify freshman Republican Mike Bishop as a top target in 2016, recruiting former Gubernatorial candidate Virg Bernero to run. Bernero defeats Ingham County Commissioner Todd Tennis in the primary and runs up a massive margin in greater Lansing to defeat Bishop by a narrow 1,700 vote margin. D+1.

MI-9: Sander Levin is reelected to become the Dean of the Michigan delegation.

MI-11: David Trott faces Novi police officer and former Marine Jason Tucker (fictional person). In a tight race, Trott is defeated by Tucker, who wins 45-38-10, with former US Rep. Kerry Bentivolio running as an independent in a three-way race. D+1.

MI-13: John Conyers suffers a stroke in early 2016 and is incapacitated, leading to his retirement from Congress, the second cycle in a row in which the Dean of the House happens to be from Michigan and ends his career. Detroit's Tupac Hunter defeats four other Democrats in the primary, which is tantamount to election in the heavily-Democratic district. In his general election night victory address, Hunter brings the wheelchair-bound Conyers onto stage and thanks him for his 52 years of service in Congress.

Michigan Legislature: The Michigan State House goes Democratic! With several suburban Republicans term limited and Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer coordinating with state party officials to elect strong candidates, the Michigan State House sees a ten-seat swing, with Democrats now holding a tenuous 57-53 majority. Tim Greimel, in his final term, is made Speaker of the House.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 170
Cruz/Portman: 75

United States elections, 2016

Illinois

Presidential: Returning to the state where she grew up, Hillary Clinton focuses her campaign on leveraging the Cook County machine while trying to make inroads in the collar counties. She manages to defeat Cruz in every Chicagoland county, and with President Obama campaigning in the state on her behalf, drives up the Cook numbers. She matches Obama's 2012 raw vote total of 3.1 million, while Cruz fails to match Romney's total vote. Hillary wins 58-39, besting Obama's '12 margin but falling short of his massive '08 margin.

IL Senate: The premier race of the cycle outside of Pennsylvania pits Mark Kirk against Cheri Bustos, who emerges from the Democratic primary (where she defeats Rep. Mike Quigley). Bustos campaigns heavily in the collar counties and her western IL district, where she is trying to keep down Kirk's margins. With Kirk not hitting the numbers he needs to in downstate Illinois, Bustos wins 52-47, a narrow but decisive win over Kirk. D+1 (Tipping Point! Democrats have won control of the Senate).

IL-5: With Quigley retiring to run for Senate, he is replaced after a primary by Anita Alvarez, the Cook County State's Attorney. Alvarez is easily elected in the fall.

IL-6: After a primary challenge to Peter Roskam fizzles out in early February, Democrats triage their candidate here and Roskam stampedes to an easy reelection.

IL-7: Danny Davis retires after twenty years in Congress and is replaced after a Democratic primary by 17th Ward Alderman Latasha Thomas.

IL-10: Brad Schneider returns to Congress after defeating, in their third matchup, Congressman Bob Dold 54-45. D+1.

IL-12: Illinois Senate Majority Leader James Clayborne, Jr. challenges Mike Bost in the general election. Despite leading in polls for much of the year, the polls tighten to a pure tossup by the end of the season. Clayborne narrowly wins by only 1,200 votes. D+1.

IL-13: For the third cycle in a row, Democrats attempt to take out Rodney Davis, and this is not "third time's the charm." Davis wins 53-46 over State Rep. Sue Scherer to hold the seat.

IL-16: After staving off a primary challenge from a Rockford tire company owner, Adam Kinzinger has a rant on national television in September where he criticizes Ted Cruz and says, "This idea in the party that we all have to compete for who can be the most right wing is nuts. We're not going to win Illinois doing that, or New York, or California, or Pennsylvania. Big states we leave on the table because we can't offend the sensitivities of a handful of voters. That's why we have shutdowns, and wild primaries, and litmus tests, and keyed votes. It's crazy, and the American people know it's crazy!" Kinzinger is easily reelected in the fall over Litesa Wallace.

IL-17: Cheri Bustos, who was elected to the Senate, is replaced by East Moline's Mike Jacobs, who defeats former Rep. Bobby Schilling.

Illinois Legislature: In a reversal from the general trend nationwide, Illinois Democrats actually lose seats in the Illinois House, dropping three seats to fall to 68-50, losing their supermajority. In the Senate, Democrats gain two seats to hold a 41-18 majority.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 190
Cruz/Portman: 75

United States elections, 2016

Louisiana

Presidential: The old Clinton magic does not strike again in the Pelican State - Cruz wins 56-42, a decrease from the margins attained by both McCain and Romney. Neither campaign spends much time in the state.

LA Senate: After winning the Governorship, David Vitter appointed former Governor Buddy Roemer as a placeholder Senator to serve out the rest of his term. With an open seat, Charles Boustany and Jay Dardenne enter the race for the GOP while Karen Carter Peterson clears the field for Democrats. In the jungle primary, Boustany and Peterson emerge to face each other. Peterson surprises pundits with her strong performance in the runoff, but Boustany is elected 53-47 in the lower-turnout runoff.

LA-3: With Boustany retiring to seek the Senate seat, the jungle primary features State Senator Fred Mills (R) and Lake Charles Mayor Randy Roach (D) and a few minor candidates. Mills wins the runoff handily.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 190
Cruz/Portman: 83

Loving the rate at which this is being updated. Can't wait for more!

United States elections, 2016

Arkansas

Presidential: Though Bill Clinton campaigns in Little Rock a few times, the affinity the state once felt for him and Hillary is not enough to prevent Cruz from winning the state, though he carries it with a substantially smaller margin than McCain, Romney or Bush, only winning 52-47. The outcome does not bode well for him in less conservative states, though the Cruz camp chalks it up to the "semi-home state" effect for the Clintons.

AR Senate: When Mike Beebe declines to enter the race, John Boozman cruises to reelection, 67-31, against State Senator Keith Ingram.

AR House: All four incumbents are easily reelected.

Arkansas General Assembly: Republicans expand their majorities in both Houses.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 190
Cruz/Portman: 89

United States elections, 2016

Iowa

Presidential: Despite talk that Cruz can flip the state, Iowa's Democratic lean comes through again. Hillary wins 52-47, belying Iowa's close partisan split.

IA Senate: Ticket splitting extravaganza in Iowa as Chuck Grassley rolls State Senator Pam Jochum with a 56-40 margin, with a Paulite libertarian taking a small percentage of the vote. Grassley carries all four CD's, while Hillary carries three and Democrats pick up two (see more below). Grassley pledges in his victory speech, "thank you for helping me win my last campaign."

IA-1: Freshman Congressman (and potential loan shark) Rod Blum faces Anesa Kajtazovic, a 30-year old former state representative who defeated Mary Vernon in the primary for the right to face Blum. In the Democratic-leaning district, and with the energy of the DCCC behind her, Kajtazovic crushes Blum for an easy pickup. D+1.

IA-3: David Young is challenged by former Governor Chet Culver in this coin-toss district which he only won the cycle before when the broadly popular Tom Latham retired. Though the race is tight, with a narrow Young advantage heading into election day, Hillary's top-ticket performance narrowly pushes Culver over the edge 51-49.

Neither David Loebsack nor Steve King experience or see any significant challenge.

Iowa Legislature: Democrats slice the GOP advantage from 57-43 to 51-49, with moderate GOP members holding the balance of power over their party's Steve King-backed conservative wing.

Clinton/Heinrich: 196
Cruz/Portman: 89

Not looking good for Cruz :( Loving the amount of detail going into this though, keep up the good work!

()

Thank you for doing the so-far map... sooner or later I'm going to figure out how to make one of these myself.

Here's where you go to make maps :) (https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php)

United States elections, 2016

Wisconsin

Presidential: Republicans pour tons of resources into Wisconsin, hoping Scott Walker's infrastructure and a newly-passed voter ID law help swing the state in their direction. Clinton campaigns here during the spring and with favorable polling largely pulls out by mid-October. The GOP falls short in Wisconsin once again, with Clinton winning 53.7% of the vote to Cruz's 45.5, a worse result than Romney in 2012 and well short of the close-misses of 2000 and 2004. Without Wisconsin, the path to 270 becomes nearly impossible for the Cruz camp.

WI Senate: Ron Johnson, the most endangered Senator in the country, is unable to overcome the nationwide D wave. US Rep. Ron Kind defeats Johnson 56-40, with a Libertarian candidate taking nearly four percent of the vote. D+1.

WI-1: Despite his district having a moderately D-friendly PVI considering the national climate, Ways and Means Chairman Paul Ryan is buoyed by heavy outside spending from the CoC and Crossroads to easily earn a 9th term in Congress even as Hillary Clinton carries the 1st CD 52-47 and Kind carries it 54-45.

WI-3: Kind is replaced by State Senator Julie Lassa, who defeats State Senator Kathleen Vinehout and then cruises in the general election against a La Crosse businessman. (Lassa once lived in the 7th, but her home in Portage County was moved to the 3rd in redistricting).

WI-6: Glenn Grothman proves too controversial even for his own district. After surviving a wide-open primary, Grothman is narrowly defeated by only 700 votes by Democratic State Rep. Gordon Hintz of Oshkosh. D+1, but Hintz, in winning a district not held by a Democrat for 50 years, is immediately on Roll Call's 2018 Most Vulnerable House Members.

WI-7: Sean Duffy finally attracts a top-tier challenger in State Rep. Nick Milroy of Superior, who runs at Duffy from the center, accusing him of standing against "Wisconsin families" and hits his votes against "consumer protections and safety." Milroy also pledges to only serve three terms, noting that Duffy is seeking a fourth term. Despite Duffy trying to emphasize his moderate credentials, Milroy edges him 52-47 on the strength of Clinton's coattails in the 7th, which she carries, and Ted Cruz's weakness in the north relative to the Milwaukee suburbs. D+1.

Wisconsin Legislature: No change in the Wisconsin State Senate, where Republicans maintain their 19-14 advantage. State Rep. Katrina Shankland is elected in a special election in March to fill the seat of Lassa. In the State Assembly, Democrats pick up seven seats to slash the Republican advantage to 56-43.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 206
Cruz/Portman: 89

1 critique: Ryan's district has a PVI of R+3. Even when Obama won the district in 2008, he won with over 64% of the vote that year.

Thanks, fixed it.

This timeline is awesome! :D Please keep this up! In my opinion, the GOP deserves to be learn a lesson for nominating Cruz and hopefully this will be their cue to go in a more libertarian direction. 

Great timeline, but I was really hoping for a Russ Feingold come back :(

I'm actually looking to fit him into the timeline in one of two other ways... Since you brought him up, what do you think? Is Russ a future Secretary of State or is he Governor material?

I could see Russ doing something diplomatic due to his post in the Great Lakes region in Africa.

SOS.

I'm predicting a crazy Cruz turnaround.

Only if California, Oregon, Washington, and Minnesota somehow don't exist in this timeline

The North Carolina update said Clinton won. Unless you mean Cruz in the future...?

All I am saying is that in everything I have read, the early dominating always turns around.

This isn't everything you've read.

Sorry if I gave away the ending to anybody early on in the TL (well, not the ENDING. Just the result of the 2016 election. There'll be plenty more elections in the future :))

Given the level of detail and realism you've given to this TL, I don't think its possible to spoil a Clinton v.s. Cruz election

United States elections, 2016

Minnesota

Presidential: To the surprise of nobody - even the pundits who thought in 2012 Romney could make a play for Minnesota - the Gopher State is easily carried by Clinton, who wins 55-42, a higher margin than Obama carried the state by in 2008. Though the result does not surprise anyone, the margin does.

MN-2: John Kline attracts his first top-tier challenger in years, when State Senator Matt Schmit, a 36-year old from Red Wing, enters the race. Schmit challenges Kline as a centrist and runs on "exporting Minnesota common-sense to Washington," citing the state's strong job growth and well-regarded political climate. Schmit defeats the previously-safe Kline 52-48. D+1.

MN-3: Erik Paulsen, expected to cruise to reelection, attracts a top-tier challenger when Democrats persuade Bloomington-area State senator Melissa Halvorson Wiklund to enter the race. Though Paulsen leads in almost all polls until election day, Halvorson Wiklund defeats him in the western Minneapolis suburbs, where Cruz does particularly poorly. D+1.

MN-7: Collin Peterson retires. Considered a surefire Republican pickup at the beginning of the term, Republicans once again nominate 2014 nominee Torrey Westrom while the DFL nominates State Rep. Paul Marquart. Marquart easily defeats Westrom in what was expected to be a competitive race.

MN-8: After a return to politics late in life and now 72 years old (nearly 73), two-term incumbent Rick Nolan announces his retirement from politics. While the rural 8th is initially cited as a potential R pickup when he announces his retirement in January of 2016, Minnesota Senate Majority Leader Tom Bakk enters the race early and cruises to a surprisingly comfortable 53-45 general election win.

Minnesota Legislature: Democrats gain three seats in the Senate, holding all the seats of retiring members to increase their majority to 42-25. In the Minnesota House, DFLers pick up 18 seats to retake control of the chamber with an 80-54 majority.

At all levels, the DFL/Democrats overperform in the Minneapolis suburbs and push the state further left than was expected. Minnesota's House delegation goes from 5-3 Democrat to 7-1 Democrat.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 216
Cruz/Portman: 89

Thank you for reading, I'm glad you enjoy the TL :)

wow. all that's left is Tom Emmer. RIP Minnesota GOP.

Call me stubborn, but even in a Clinton landslide, I doubt she would be having these coattails like Obama did in 2008. I think instead many votes for Clinton would not be for her but votes against Cruz meaning people would vote straight Republican for other offices but Clinton for president because Cruz is the nominee. But then again, I can be wrong. But otherwise, great timeline!

Its very difficult to win an election because you are not the person you are running against. With straight tickets becoming more and more universal, you could win big in one election, and lose the next.

United States elections, 2016

Missouri

Presidential: The Clinton campaign invests millions in the St. Louis and KC media markets to try to flip the Lean R state. Unprecedented voter registration drives in the area bring up cold reminders of the Ferguson fallout from two years prior. Despite her best efforts, Cruz narrowly hangs on to Missouri, 50-49, his narrowest win. As the results from Missouri start trickling in during the evening, NBC's Chuck Todd comments, "If Cruz is struggling this much to win Missouri, I don't see the math for him winning the electoral college."

MO Governor: A tough contest between Chris Koster and Tom Schweich for Missouri Governor. Koster has the early advantage as Schweich has to defeat Catherine Hanaway in a primary, but the race is neck-and-neck going into election day. Koster's numbers are slightly deflated in Democratic areas due to his history as a former Republican, but he makes up for it with conservative Democrats and moderate Republicans when he ties Schweich to the polarizing Cruz, saying, "Don't give Ted Cruz conservatives another state house from which to launch their radical agenda." By a margin of only 6,000 votes, Koster holds the Governorship for Democrats.

MO Row Officers: Democrats do not enjoy the same luck downballot. Peter Kinder is reelected lieutenant governor in a landslide, State Rep. Shane Schoeller is elected to the open SoS seat (see below), and Senate President Pro Tempore Tom Dempsey is elected to the open State Treasurer seat. Democrats do manage to hold the Attorney General's office with State Senator Scott Sifton.

MO Senate: A high-profile Senate race - Democrats recruit SOS Jason Kander to run against first-term incumbent Roy Blunt, who despite only being in the Senate one term is a mainstay in the state from his time in the House. Kander's impressive military credentials and youth contrast with Blunt's straight-ticket conservatism. Kander campaigns frequently in central and southern Missouri to try to attract conservative voters, emphasizing his time in the military and his successful bipartisan ethics reform, then pivoting to ask, "What has Roy done recently?" In one of the nation's great upsets, Kander defeats Blunt 51-49, essentially the same margin as Cruz defeats Clinton by. D+1 (The Democrats have now won 7 Senate seats).

MO House: No incumbents retire or are defeated in either primaries or general elections. The entire delegation is easily returned to Congress.

MO Legislature: The GOP advantage is reduced to 23-11 in the Senate, and the GOP advantage is slightly reduced to 110-53.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 216
Cruz/Portman: 99

Cruz cruising for a bruising! :D

True. But some states (especially those with a ton of independent voters) have a lot of ticket splitters, such as Minnesota (remember, Klobuchar and Pawlenty both won by wide margins in 2006) and Wisconsin (Walker survived the recall the same year Obama carried the state and Baldwin was elected to the Senate). So I find it doubtful that even in a Clinton landslide, Paulsen would lose (Kline I can see losing though) or MN-07 going for a Democrat that's not named Collin Petersen (it is a R+5 district).

Maybe. Maybe not. Though maybe there are in still many Gypsy Moth Republicans in places like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and especially in Colorado and Nevada who still say they are Republican but voted for Obama twice and would probably do so again. These are the types that pushed the likes of Walker, Ryan, Gardner, Snyder and Coffman over the line but also Hickenlooper, Dayton, Bennett and Franken. I think they are very similar to some lingering Dixiecrats that still sent Democrats to congress as recently as 2008, but started to vote Republican on the top of the ticket since Reagan. Then again, the difference between Walker and Obama was about 10% and when you factor in turnout differences, it would probably be like 5%..and there's a 50/50 shot that it would be enough to save people during a wave.

United States elections, 2016

North Dakota

Presidential: Cruz easily carries North Dakota's 3 electoral votes, 57-41, a smaller margin than Romney's win in 2012 and Bush's 2004 landslide, but twice as large as McCain's 8% margin.

ND Governor: Democrats recruit former Congressman Earl Pomeroy to make a Gubernatorial run. Pomeroy runs a listless, disinterested campaign and is regarded as one of the few major Democratic recruiting flops. Incumbent Jack Dalrymple cruises to reelection, winning 54-30-13 in a three-candidate field featuring oil investor Jim Taylor (fictional).

ND Senate: John Hoeven scores one of the largest landslides in North Dakota history, winning nearly 80% of the vote against a Fargo businessman.

ND-AL: Democrats pick up a decent recruit in Fargo Mayor Dennis Walaker, who is unable to do much of anything against the popular Kevin Cramer. Cramer wins 61-34, with an independent candidate taking the rest of the vote.

ND Legislature: Republicans lose one seat in the North Dakota Senate to see their massive majority cut to 29-18. It is the Democrats' third straight election where they gain seats in the chamber. Democrats lose two seats in the House, dropping to a 73-21 disadvantage.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 216
Cruz/Portman: 103

South Dakota

Presidential: Cruz wins this uncontested state 57-41, matching Romney's percentage of the vote while falling short of his raw vote total.

SD Senate: John Thune cruises to reelection over 32-year old State Senator Jason Frerichs, winning 64-32 over the young rising star. Frerichs attracts a surprising amount of support from the Daschles and Johnsons, as well as several campaign appearances by SHS.

SD-AL: Tim Johnson's son Brendan Johnson is recruited to run against Kristi Noem and he keeps the margin respectable, losing only 55-44.

South Dakota Legislature: The State House is the only action here, with Democrats gaining 3 seats to cut the Republican majority to a still-daunting 55-15.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 216
Cruz/Portman: 106

Nebraska

Presidential: Cruz wins the two statewide electoral votes with a 56-41 margin. He blows out Clinton in the 1st and 3rd districts, winning 59-37 and 69-29, respectively. Clinton, however, only narrowly loses the 2nd, which Cruz wins 49-48 and by 4,000 votes. The Clinton camp poured some resources into this district late in the game, and nearly replicate Obama's '08 feat of swinging the district into their camp.

NE-02: With the Clinton ground game in Omaha, vulnerable freshman Congressman Brad Ashford narrowly hangs on against Tea Party candidate Chip Maxwell, winning 50-45 with an independent in the race taking votes from both candidates.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 216
Cruz/Portman: 111

United States elections, 2016

DC (forgot to do this one earlier)

Presidential: Ted Cruz wins a landslideClinton wins 89% of the vote to Cruz's 8.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 219
Cruz/Portman: 111

Kansas

Presidential: Cruz carries Kansas with 57.1% of the vote to Hillary Clinton's 40.8%. Hillary does best in the KC metro, managing to narrowly win Johnson County in addition to Wyandotte and Douglas. This is attributed to the attention given the KCMO area in the Missouri campaign.

KS Senate: Jerry Moran cruises to reelection over former Rep. Nancy Boyda, the only person Democrats could recruit to run against him. Moran wins 71% of the vote.

KS-1: After rumblings again that Tim Huelskamp would race a primary from the powerful agricultural lobby and Senator Pat Apple announces his intention to challenge the three-term Congressman, Huelskamp announces that he will "follow the example of others" and retire after six years. There are briefly rumors that Huelskamp intends to challenge Moran, but he does not. Apple is easily elected in the general.

All other members of the House delegation are easily reelected in the primary and general.

Kansas Legislature: Democrats win one seat in the Senate, cutting the Republican majority to 30-10, and Democrats win three seats in the House to cut the GOP majority to 89-36. Several of Brownback's ultraconservative legislators are defeated in primaries during a "moderate revolt."

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 219
Cruz/Portman: 117

Oklahoma

Presidential: Cruz wins every county of Oklahoma, as Republicans have done in every election since 2004. He wins the state's 7 electoral votes with 64.2% of the vote to Clinton's 34%, a thirty-percent margin of victory.

OK Senate: Jim Lankford cruises to an 77-21 victory over a random University of Oklahoma poli sci professor as Democrats effectively cede the race.

OK House: All incumbents cruise to easy reelections without any retirements or serious challenges.

OK Legislature: No change in the Senate, with Republicans maintaining their 40-8 advantage. Democrats win two seats in the House, cutting the Republican advantage to 70-31.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 219
Cruz/Portman: 124

RIP Cruz

United States elections, 2016

Texas

Presidential: Cruz sees a substantial home-state advantage, winning 60-38 and cleaning up in the Dallas and Houston suburbs, which sees record Republican turnout.

TX House: The entire delegation is returned - Pete Gallego narrowly loses his rematch with Rep. Will Hurd.

TX Legislature: Republicans pick up one seat in the Senate, expanding their majority to 21-10, while the House remains 98-52 with no change.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 219
Cruz/Portman: 162

United States elections, 2016

New Mexico

Presidential: With home-state Senator Marty Heinrich on the ballot, the Clinton/Heinrich ticket carries New Mexico 56-42 in a blowout, carrying every CD and all but two counties.

NM House: All House incumbents are reelected.

NM Legislature: The House switches back to the Democrats as they pick up 6 seats from the GOP to earn a 39-31 advantage. The Democrats gain three Senate seats to expand their majority to 28-14.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 222
Cruz/Portman: 162

Colorado

Presidential: Clinton, not regarded as the ideal Democratic candidate for Colorado, benefits from Cruz being her opponent, who is possibly the worst Republican fit for the state. Clinton wins 53-45, an 8-point margin, carrying the Democratic Denver region despite furious campaigning in the state by Cruz, Rand Paul and Cory Gardner. When Colorado is called for Clinton, the election was effectively called for her as well.

CO Senate: Michael Bennet faces the COGOP's second straight high-level candidate as Mike Coffman enters the race. Though the race is expected to be tight, Bennet avoids any serious gaffes and ties Coffman to Cruz, who is very unpopular in the state. Bennet winds up outperforming Clinton, winning 55-44 in a surprisingly comfortable margin in the swing state.

CO-3: Lieutenant Governor Joseph Garcia enters the race and despite being initially seen as an underdog defeats three-term Rep. Scott Tipton 51-49 in a close and heated race. D+1.

CO-5: Retired military officer Irv Halter runs against Doug Lamborn again, and though he narrows the margin is once again unable to unseat Lamborn in Colorado's most conservative district.

CO-6: With Coffman running for Senate, 2014 candidate Andrew Romanoff enters once again and faces former GOP State Rep. Spencer Swalm. Romanoff wins easily after Swalm commits a gaffe-filled, awkward campaign. D+1.

CO Legislature: Democrats retake the Senate by winning one seat, holding a 18-17 advantage. Democrats then expand their House majority to 38-27, giving them unified control of state government once again.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 231
Cruz/Portman: 162

Great scenario!  So in the PV this is looking in line with Obama's 53/46 win in 2008 so far (NY and TX would roughly cancel out).  Although I could easily see Clinton getting mid to high 60's in CA and/or winning FL by 8-10% given the results in the Northeast, which would make it more like 54/45.

Thanks for reading! Yeah, we're looking at roughly 55-45 or 54-45, with Clinton's strength in the Midwest compensating for Cruz's strength in the South.

United States elections, 2016

Wyoming

Presidential: Cruz wins the state without any serious opposition, carrying it 67-31. It is his largest margin after Idaho.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 231
Cruz/Portman: 165

Well, Cruz is toast. Looking forward to what's in store post-election though, and where the Republicans go from there.

United States elections, 2016

Montana

Presidential: Another close one in Montana, surprising many who thought Hillary was a uniquely poor fit for the libertarian-ish Big Sky State. Cruz wins, but only wins 51-47, a stunningly narrow result for a state largely regarded as safe. Martin Heinrich stages several campaign events in the state, particularly in Missoula, Bozeman and Billings.

MT Governor: Regarded as the weakest incumbent Democrat, Steve Bullock runs a bipartisan, positive campaign and defeats State Rep. Champ Edmunds 54-46 in a surprisingly wide margin after top-tier candidate AG Tim Fox decides to seek reeleciton and US Rep. Ryan Zinke declines a bid.

MT Row Officers: Tim Fox is easily reelected as AG over Dem State Rep. Chuck Hunter. 32-year old State Rep. Bryce Bennett is elected Secretary of State, becoming Montana's first openly-gay winner of a statewide office. State Auditor Monica Lindeen runs for Superintendent of Public Instruction, defeating Amanda Curtis in the primary, while current Superintendent Denise Juneau runs for State Auditor. Both win the office.

MT-AL: Zinke faces a surprisingly well-funded and spirited challenge from retiring SOS Linda McCulloch. The state's partisan lean helps Zinke over the line to win 54-45, though nobody denies that he was caught unprepared and flat-footed by the seriousness of her challenge.

MT Legislature: Democrats pick up two Senate seats to narrow the GOP majority to 27-23, and pick up four seats in the Montana House to cut the GOP advantage to 55-45.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 231
Cruz/Portman: 168

Idaho

Presidential: Cruz's largest victory by percentage, winning 70-28, a forty-two percent margin. It is the only state in which Republicans break 70% of the vote.

ID Sen: Mike Crapo, despite running for reelection, faces Raul Labrador in the primary. After initially signalling he would stay in, Crapo retires instead after polls show Labrador far ahead of him. Labrador wins easily in the general election over a Boise City Councilman.

ID-1: With Labrador retiring, the primary becomes a free-for-all on the GOP side. Coeur d'Alene state senator Bob Nonini advances to the general after three Boise-area candidates cannibalize the vote in the southern part of the district while he focuses his campaign on running up the score in his home region. He cruises to election in the general.

ID Legislature: No net change in either chamber, with Democrats and Republicans exchanging a seat each in the House.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 231
Cruz/Portman: 172

United States elections, 2016

Utah

Presidential: Cruz wins the state 65-33, a far cry from the '04 highs posted by fellow Texan George W. Bush or the '12 totals of the Mormon Romney. Still, it's one of his highest vote totals after Idaho and Wyoming.

UT Governor: Jim Matheson announces he is challenging Gary Herbert. Though Herbert is favored throughout the race, Matheson performs admirably, holding Herbert to a 55-44 margin and winning several counties while Clinton is being pasted at the top of the ticket.

UT Senate: Mike Lee faces a wild GOP primary. He runs as an ally of Cruz, who by the time of the primary is nearly guaranteed the nomination, but is knocked out by Josh Romney, who defeats him with enough votes to guarantee they will not have to go to convention. Romney cites his reason for challenging Lee as "we need people who will work for Utah, not work for their email list." Lee is one of only two incumbent Republicans defeated in a primary challenge (more on that soon). Romney easily wins the general election, 70-30, over token Democratic opposition.

UT-4: Mia Love is knocked off in a primary by Stephen Sandstrom, who runs at her from the left as a "businessman and consensus-builder." Sandstrom easily dispatches Doug Owens in the general to hold the seat for Republicans. Love was considered safe going into the election, and ran an awful primary campaign. It is revealed after the election that many establishment GOP types encouraged Sandstrom to enter the race out of worries that Owens could beat Love with Presidential-year turnout.

UT Legislature: GOP drops three seats in the House to fall to a still-daunting 58-17 majority, and drop one seat in the Utah Senate to fall to a 23-6 majority.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 231
Cruz/Portman: 178

Did you do Florida, yet? Will be really neat to see what happens in Arizona and Nevada.

Just a small nitpick with NM. In 2008 Obama won it 57/42 and McCain still won NM-02 50/49, so it would probably take something like 59/39 for Clinton/Heinrich to carry all 3 CD's.

Yeah. I would say that Clinton would get to like 58% with Heinrich in a 6 or 7-point national victory.

Lee and Love both gone? This is not a good day for Utah :(


Also looking forward to what happens in these states, as well as AK.

Oh no. Please don't be who I think it is. :(

Makes no sense for Idaho to be Cruz's best state. If a mormon (Romney) couldn't come close to 70%, it ain't happening for a Canadian.

United States elections, 2016

Florida

Presidential: The killing blow to the Cruz campaign strikes in Florida. Hillary carries the state 54-45, the widest margin by a Democrat in decades, as Cruz flounders in South Florida and Orlando despite being Cuban American. Many pundits cite Fidel Castro's death and the graying of the anti-Castro set as contributing to the decline in GOP numbers among Cuban Americans. When Florida is called for Hillary - painfully early for the Cruz campaign - the election was essentially over.

FL Senate: It's not all bad news for the GOP, however - FL Dems gonna FL Dem, after all. Rubio, after avoiding a major primary challenge, faces Debbie Wasserman-Schultz in the general election. DWS is, as most would expect, a disastrous candidate and Rubio escapes with a 54-45 win, exactly mirroring Hillary's margin.

FL-02: One of the top GOP pickup opportunities in the country, the GOP nominates Halsey Beshears to take on Gwen Graham. Graham is prepared for all comers, however, and defeats Beshears 52-47 to hold the seat.

FL-07: John Mica retires after 12 terms in the House. State Rep. Jason Brodeur enters the race on the GOP side to face fellow State Rep. Randolph Bracy. Despite the suburban district's GOP lean, the strength of Democrats in central Florida edges Bracy past Brodeur, helping continue the gradual movement of Central Florida towards the D column. D+1.

FL-13: David Jolly is challenged by Charlie Justice, who passed on taking on Jolly in 2014. With Justice entering the race, Bill Young's widow decides not to run and endorses Justice. The Florida Dems make this seat their top priority, and for once don't blow the election completely. Justice rides the Clinton wave to knock off the freshman Jolly 51-49. D+1.

FL-18: Patrick Murphy is reelected over a local real estate investor with a 57-42 margin, his largest yet.

FL-23: With DWS retiring to run for Senate, State Rep. Evan Jenne steps up to run instead. Jenne easily wins in this heavily Democratic district after surviving a tough primary in which his father's legal troubles become a campaign issue.

FL-26: First-term Rep. Carlos Curbelo is challenged by State Sen. Dwight Bullard. Though Curbelo runs to the middle hoping to save his seat, Bullard wins by a surprising 53-46 margin to put the seat back in Democratic hands. D+1.

Florida Legislature: Florida Democrats have one of their best cycles in recent memory, taking twelve seats despite unfavorable maps in the House to slash the GOP advantage to 70-50. In the Senate, Democrats snag three seats to improve to 23-17.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 260
Cruz/Portman: 178

United States elections, 2016

Arizona

Presidential: Clinton keeps it competitive, with record Hispanic turnout nearly snaking the state from Republicans. Cruz only wins 50-48 and only crosses the 50% mark by 2,000 votes in a state regarded as Safe R for much of the election. He is saved by decent turnout in the conservative suburbs.

AZ Senate: Despite a furious campaign, John McCain is DEFEATED in the GOP primary by David Schweikert, with many Arizona Republicans finding him both insufficiently conservative or too old or both. Democrats are ready to pounce, however, with Kyrsten Sinema jumping into the race just before filing deadline and the field is cleared on her behalf - Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton decides not to run once Sinema enters. With the very right-wing Schweikert winning the primary, many moderate Republicans swing instead to the moderate Democrat Sinema and on the heels of the record Hispanic turnout buoying Democrats and without antipathy to Obama bringing them down, Sinema is elected as the first female Senator from Arizona. D+1. (Democrats have now won 8 Senate seats, matching their 2008 total).

AZ-6: With Schweikert retiring to run for Senate, Ben Quayle reemerges as the consensus choice to run and defeats Harry Mitchell, who Schweikert defeated in the old 5th. The race is referred as the "has-been, also-ran contest," and Quayle wins handily in this heavily Republican district to return to the House after a four-year absence.

AZ-9: Sinema is replaced by David Schapira, who runs against former Mesa Mayor and candidate for Governor Scott Smith. Though Smith is favored for a GOP pickup, Schapira edges him 52-48. Smith announces that he is retiring from politics afterwards.

All other members of the House delegation are easily reelected.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 260
Cruz/Portman: 189

United States elections, 2016

Nevada

Presidential: Clinton wins Nevada 54-44 over Cruz. Cruz is unable to overcome deep mistrust towards him amongst both Hispanic voters and Las Vegas moderates and is pasted in southern Nevada, whereas he wins over 70% of the vote in the northern part of the state.

NV Senate: Governor Brian Sandoval challenges Reid and neither faces any primary opposition. The unpopular Reid revs up his infamous political machine but finds that few of his attacks can stick to the popular Sandoval, who runs a sunny, positive campaign on his accomplishments after vetoing several overly conservative pieces of legislation and keeping the Assembly in check for two years. In one of the stunners of the election, despite his party winning 8 Senate seats and Clinton romping nationwide atop the ticket, Reid is defeated 53-46. R+1. (Democrats have netted 7 seats now).

NV-3: Joe Heck narrowly survives against a Las Vegas businessman and realtor, winning by only 3,000 votes.

NV-4: Steven Horsford blows out Cresent Hardy to retake his old House seat. D+1.

NV Assembly: Democrats retake the Senate by picking up 1 seat to mirror the old GOP advantage of 11 to 10. Democrats also retake the House, seizing seven seats to see a 24-18 majority.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 266
Cruz/Portman: 189

Arizona 2 is one of the closest districts in the country, can we have results for there too?

So it looks like North Carolina will be the only state to flip from 2012 to 2016, though there's a lot of movement in the margins of victory.

Things just might be that polarized.

United States elections, 2016

Oregon

Presidential: Clinton easily wins Oregon as the D winning streak in the state continues, taking 55% of the vote to Cruz's 39%, with a local Green candidate taking 3% of the state's vote.

OR Senate: Ron Wyden faces no serious opposition in either the primary or general elections, cruising to a 61-48 win over a Some Guy Republican.

OR-4: Peter DeFazio, dean of the Oregon delegation, announces his retirement. He is replaced by 43-year old State Sen. Chris Edwards, who defeats fellow State Sen. Jeff Kruse of Roseburg.

OR-5: Kurt Schrader announces his retirement early in the cycle, when it appears that Democrats have little chance of regaining the majority. In his swing district, he is replaced by 36-year old State Rep. Brent Barton, who defeats Canby Senator Alan Olsen 52-46, a surprisingly large margin in what is considered western Oregon's most competitive seats.

All other incumbents are easily reelected.

OR Row officers: Treasurer Ted Wheeler, AG Ellen Rosenblum and SOS Kate Brown are all reelected handily.

OR Assembly: Democrats maintain their 18-12 advantage in the Senate and increase their House majority to 37-23.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 273
Cruz/Portman: 189

Clinton now has attained enough electoral votes to be elected the 45th President of the United States.

McSally reelected.

:,(

United States elections, 2016

Washington

Presidential: Clinton blows out Cruz in the Evergreen state, winning 59% of the vote - a modern record for a Democrat in the state, the most won there since 1964. Cruz is cited as being a particularly awful fit for the state, with even nominally GOP suburbs in the Seattle and Portland areas swinging hard against him. Cruz only manages 38% of the vote.

WA Governor: The GOP gets a top-tier recruit in this race in U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert. However, incumbent Jay Inslee ties Reichert to the unpopular GOP Congress and the unpopular Cruz, saying, "Dave Reichert plans to bring his radical Ted Cruz conservatism to Washington." Despite Reichert's efforts to portray himself as a moderate, Inslee lists the policy agenda of the GOP-led Senate, telling Seattle-area voters, "Don't give Ted Cruz a footsoldier in the Governor's mansion" and "Don't let the rural conservatives tell King County what it can and can't do." It is one of the most negative gubernatorial races in the country. Inslee winds up winning anyhow, 54-45.

WA Row Officers: Scandal-plagued Lieutenant Governor Brad Owen, a 20-year incumbent, retires and is replaced by Senate Minority Leader Sharon Nelson, who defeats GOP State Rep. Jay Rodne. Attorney General Bob Ferguson cruises to reelection over King County Prosecutor Dan Satterberg, who was only reluctantly recruited into running. SoS Kim Wyman, the only Republican statewide officeholder, easily wins reelection over an accountant. Mike Kreidler and Troy Kelley are easily reelected as State Insurance Commissioner and State Auditor, respectively.

Republicans do score two pickups in statewide offices, however. Jim McIntire retires as State Treasurer to take a position at a Seattle think-tank. State Senator Steve Litzow, facing a tough reelection campaign, instead jumps into the Treasurer race and defeats State Senator Dave Frockt to pick up the office. Peter J. Goldmark announces his retirement as Commissioner of Public Lands and is replaced by former GOP State Senator John Smith from Northport, who defeats a Weyerhauser executive for the spot. Republicans now control 3 partisan statewide offices compared to four for the Democrats.

WA Senator: Unlike 2004 and 2010, the GOP is unable to find/persuade anyone to take on the quixotic task of trying to take down the powerful Patty Murray. The only Republican who steps forward to take on the task is State Senator Doug Ericksen, not up for reelection until 2018 and thus not at risk of losing his seat. The very conservative Ericksen, hailing from Whatcom County and not the Seattle area, fails to attract much support from state or national GOP groups more focused on protecting vulnerable incumbents and runs a low-wattage, gaffe-filled campaign. Murray crushes Ericksen 62-38 in the general, taking two Eastern WA counties and losing only Lewis County on the west side of the Cascades.

WA-1: Highly-regarded State Senator Andy Hill challenges Suzan DelBene. Thought to be a top-tier race with Hill in the race, DelBene defeats him by ten points in the primary and then wins 56-44 in the general to win a third full term.

WA-3: Jamie Herrera Beutler finally attracts the A-list challenger Democrats have been waiting for when Vancouver Mayor Tim Leavitt jumps into the race to challenge her. Though Herrera Beutler is a strong candidate in her district, the top-ticket races help carry Leavitt over the line in the general and he wins the R-leaning district 51-49. D+1.

WA-8: With an open seat, there is a wide-open race to replace six-term Rep. Reichert. Three Republicans, Rep. Chad Magendanz and former State Senator and Gubernatorial and Senatorial candidate Dino Rossi, enter the race from the West side while Rep. Brad Hawkins enters from Wenatchee. Democrats nominate only State Senator Mark Mullet, who gives up his Senate seat to make the run. Mullet and Hawkins, considered the weakest of the three, advance to the general election where Mullet wins 52-48, the first Democrat to ever represent the 8th District and the first Democrat to represent a district with counties east of the cascades since the early 1990s. D+1.

All other House incumbents are easily reelected.

WA Legislature: Democrats hold Mullet's empty seat and win three additional Senate seats to win back the Senate, now holding a 27-22 advantage as Tim Sheldon returns to the Democratic caucus, now declaring his party registration as independent. Democrats win eight seats in the House, all of them in the Puget Sound region, to take a 59-39 advantage. The Legislature is once again under full Democratic control.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 283
Cruz/Portman: 189

United States elections, 2016

California

Presidential: Clinton scores the highest margin of victory in California for a Democrat in history, winning 63% of the vote over Cruz, who takes 35%, the lowest total for a Republican since the three-way 1992 election. The blowout cements California as the backbone of the Democratic coalition.

CA Senate: Kamala Harris narrowly outperforms Clinton, winning 65-35 over US Rep. David Valadao. Harris runs to become the "next Liz Warren" and slams Valadao constantly, with her opponent trying desperately to paint himself as an inoffensive moderate consensus-builder. Despite concerns among CA Dems that Harris' campaign is too combative and left-wing, Valadao's underfunded, unexciting campaign fails to inspire the conservatives who form his base or attract the moderates he needs to pick up. Easy D hold.

CA-7: Ami Bera faces Doug Ose in a rematch of their 2014 match, with both advancing to the top two. Bera wins by an even wider margin than the last time, taking 55% of the vote.

CA-10: State Senator Cathleen Gagliani, whose Senate district covers much of the 10th, announces her challenge to incumbent Jeff Denham. Denham is defeated by a surprisingly wide margin, 54-46, in the top two after having easily won his prior three elections. There is some controversy over whether Gagliani moved within the district and whether she used to live in the district or not, but not enough to prevent her from taking down Denham. D+1.

CA-12: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi stuns much of the political world in February of 2016 when she announces that due to health issues she will not seek reelection. The career of one of California's most decorated Congressional members comes to an end. In the beyond-safe Democratic district, San Francisco Mayor Ed Lee advances to face Assemblyman David Chiu, with six other Democrats failing to make the runoff. It is the first election outside of Hawaii where both candidates are Asian-American, and the first-ever contest where both are Chinese-American. In an upset, Chiu defeats Lee by running to Lee's left.

CA-16: Jim Costa faces Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin, who he defeats narrowly 52-48. Costa continues to be California's most vulnerable incumbent Democrat.

CA-19: Zoe Lofgren retires after 22 years in Congress. She is replaced by 33-year old openly-gay and Asian American State Assemblyman Evan Low of Campbell, who defeats a local tech investor in an all-Democratic top two.

CA-21: With Valadao running for Senate, Democrats run Amanda Renteria again. She faces Andy Vidak, who she defeats 53-47 in the top two. D+1.

CA-25: Steve Knight is challenged once again by Tony Strickland and Lee Rogers. This time, it is Rogers who advances to face Knight. Strickland bucks his party by endorsing Rogers, stating, "I cannot in good conscience endorse Knight to represent the people of this district again." Rogers narrowly defeats Knight, 51-49. D+1.

CA-32: Grace Napolitano retires at the age of 80 after 18 years in Congress. In the safe Democratic district, Ed Hernandez is elected to replace her.

CA-39: Democrats have a credible challenge here to Ed Royce in former professional racer and Yorba Linda native Ashley Force Hood, who despite the district's conservative lean runs against Royce as a shill for big banks and as a "relic" of Washington, playing up her youth and moderate profile. In one of the biggest upsets of the election cycle, Force Hood defeats Royce by 5,000 votes and immediately becomes California's most vulnerable new Democrat. The race is a rare snatching of a Republican seat from an incumbent in Republican-leaning Orange County. D+1.

CA-44: Janice Hahn retires, is replaced by Isadore Hall.

CA-49: Despite the (Atlas red) tide sweeping California, Democrats fail to find a viable candidate in a district where nearly all downballot offices are held by the GOP.

CA-52: Carl DeMaio tries a rematch against Scott Peters and loses by an even larger margin than before, with Peters winning 54-46. The loss is regarded as the end of DeMaio's political career.

San Diego Mayor: Kevin Faulconer cruises to reelection as Mayor despite the Democratic wave in California, immediately vaulting him to the top of California's most viable Republican officeholder.

CA Legislature: Democrats win a blowout, taking six seats in the Assembly to increase their advantage to 58-22, one of their biggest majorities in history. Chris Holden becomes the Speaker. Democrats finish the election with a 27-13 advantage in the State Senate.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 338
Cruz/Portman: 189

CA-

Great update.  Again, one minor quibble:


2nd highest: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=1936&fips=6&f=0&off=0&elect=0

United States elections, 2016

Alaska

Presidential: The state continues to trend D, to the surprise of most, with Cruz winning 53% of the vote to Clinton's 44%. Her percentage is the highest by a Democrat since 1968 and the nine-point win is the narrowest margin by a Republican since that same year.

AK Senate: Lisa Murkowski defeats Joe Miller 55-40 in a three-way primary to advance to the general, where she defeats Hollis French with ease. It is seen as a rebuke to the Palinite wing of the party.

AK Legislature: No change in the composition of either chamber.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 338
Cruz/Portman: 192

Hawaii

Presidential: Clinton keeps the streak alive, failing to reach Obama's favorite-son levels of support in the 70s but winning 67% of the vote to Cruz's 29%. Neither candidate spent any particular time here.

HI Senate: Schatz does not attract any real opponent in the primary or in the general.

HI House: Both incumbents are easily reelected.

HI Legislature: Democrats pick off two seats in the house to attain a 45-6 advantage and the composition of the Hawaii Senate has no change.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 342
Cruz/Portman: 192

Clinton is elected as the 45th President of the United States!

(As an aside, I know I screwed up my math somewhere on the electoral votes. I'll upload the map to get it right.)

I should start using Atlas as my reference, Wikipedia doesn't go that far back :P thank you for the check.

The map of the 2016 Presidential election:

()

Clinton/Heinrich: 347
Cruz/Portman: 191
(These numbers are from the Map Calculator).

Meet your freshman Senate class of 2016:

Republicans:

Charles Boustany (LA)
Raul Labrador (ID)
Josh Romney (UT)
Brian Sandoval (NV)*
Todd Young (IN)

Democrats:

Cheri Bustos (IL)*
Janet Cowell (NC)*
Kamala Harris (CA)
Maggie Hassan (NH)*
Jason Kander (MO)*
Ron Kind (WI)*
Tim Ryan (OH)*
John Sarbanes (MD)
Joe Sestak (PA)*
Kyrsten Sinema (AZ)*

(A * next to a name denotes a pickup.)

Democrats have a net of +7 and now hold a majority of 53-47 in the United States Senate.

Meet your House freshman class of 2016:

Republican:

AL-5: Arthur Orr
AZ-6: Ben Quayle
ID-1: Bob Nonini
IN-3: Dennis Kruse
IN-9: Mike Moore
KS-1: Pat Apple
KY-1: Dakota Meyer
LA-3: Fred Mills
MS-1: Brad Mayo
OH-15: Jim Hughes
TN-4: Bill Ketron
UT-4: Stephen Sandstrom
VA-4: Rick Morris

Democratic:

AZ-9: David Schapira
CA-10: Cathleen Gagliani*
CA-12: David Chiu
CA-19: Evan Low
CA-21: Amanda Renteria*
CA-25: Lee Rogers*
CA-32: Ed Hernandez
CA-39: Ashley Force Hood*
CO-3: Joseph Garcia*
CO-6: Andrew Romanoff*
FL-7: Randolph Bracy*
FL-13: Charlie Justice*
FL-23: Evan Jenne
FL-26: Dwight Bullard*
IA-1: Anesa Kajtazovic*
IA-3: Chet Culver*
IL-5: Anita Alvarez
IL-7: Latasha Thomas
IL-10: Brad Schneider*
IL-12: James Clayborne, Jr.*
IL-17: Mike Jacobs
IN-1: Karen Freeman-Wilson
IN-2: John Broden*
MD-3: Josh Cohen
ME-2: Troy Jackson*
MI-1: Jerry Cannon*
MI-7: Brian Mackie*
MI-8: Virg Bernero*
MI-11: Jason Tucker*
MI-13: Tupac Hunter
MN-2: Matt Schmit*
MN-3: Melissa Halvorson Wiklund*
MN-7: Paul Marquart
MN-8: Tom Bakk
NH-1: Donna Soucy*
NJ-2: Bill Hughes, Jr.*
NV-4: Steven Horsford*
NY-11: Michael McMahon (special)*
NY-13: Adriano Espaillat
NY-22: Robert Palmieri*
NY-23: Svante Myrick*
NY-24: Stephanie Miner*
NY-25: Lovely Warren*
OH-9: Matt Szollosi
OH-10: Fred Strahorn*
OH-13: Zack Milkovich
OH-16: Betty Sutton*
OR-4: Chris Edwards
OR-5: Brent Barton
PA-6: Judy Schwank*
PA-7: Matt Bradford*
PA-8: Patrick J. Murphy*
PA-14: Luke Ravenstahl
SC-6: Joel Lourie
VA-1: Kenny Alexander*
VA-3: Don McEachin
VA-10: Jennifer Wexton*
WA-3: Tim Leavitt*
WA-8: Mark Mullet*
WI-3: Julie Lassa
WI-6: Gordon Hintz*
WI-7: Nick Milroy*

* denotes a pickup

Democrats gain 40 seats to take a 228-207 majority in the United States House of Representatives and have retaken the chamber.

So by math, the new Congress is +40, meaning Democrats retake the house?! 206 to 228, in favor of Democrats?

Great timeline, but I sure hope this doesn't happen :P.

Your math is correct! I hadn't counted myself. Should be 228 to 207, Republicans need 11 seats to retake the chamber.

Thoughts and analysis on the Democrats' stunning victory:

The "Suburban Strategy": The "Southern Strategy" is so 1960s. Democrats, particularly the DCCC, sensing an opportunity to hammer Cruz, coordinate their campaigns in Northern suburbs painting him as a Southern reactionary, particularly using microtargeting pioneered by the two Obama campaigns to identify union households, minority voters and white-collar suburbanites displeased by the hard-right Cruz. Much of it is used to stir up fears of a "Tea Party takeover" and try to portray any vote for Republican congressional candidates as a vote for Cruz.

The Turnout Thing: Pundits and election observers note the massive Democratic landslide was abetted by great turnout - unlike their disastrous election two years earlier. In the course of two years, Democrats went giving Republicans their largest majority since 1928 and losing the most Senate seats since 1980 to netting seven seats - including in conservative Arizona and Missouri - and winning 40 seats in the House only six years after Republicans seized 63 seats from them. The wild swings in Presidential and non-Presidential turnout do not go unnoticed.

The Republican Demographic Problem: Despite being Cuban-American, Cruz only wins 23% of Hispanics, even worse than Romney's disastrous showing in 2012, and Republicans only win 28% of the Asian-American vote. Many pundits comment on an "existential crisis" for Republicans if they cannot improve their numbers amongst growing demographics, especially since Cruz "only" wins 56% of whites.

The Solid South is gone: The 2007-2011 Democratic House majority was underpinned by representatives from rural and conservative districts in Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee and North Carolina that Democrats did not even try to contest this time. In addition, Cruz mops up in conservative suburban, exurban and rural precincts across the South, with some areas posting record numbers for Republicans. This is taken as a sign that politics are increasingly polarized along regional lines in addition to racial and generational lines.

There is no "Silent Majority": The much-ballyhooed "silent majority" of voters who don't turn out because there isn't a "true conservative" on the ballot is probably put to rest with the wipeout of Cruz outside of the South, Appalachia and rural West. Establishment Republicans, though licking their wounds, will hold up Cruz for years to come as an "I-told-you-so" to grassroots conservatives.

November 2016: A week after the election, massive snowstorms strike New England and upstate New York, killing 13. Mitch McConnell and John Boehner both announce they will step down as party leaders after the disastrous November results. Portman aides leak issues in the campaign where Cruz would not let "the candidate off of a leash."

Democrats select Steny Hoyer of Maryland to be the next Speaker, Xavier Becerra of California to be the next Majority Leader and Joseph Crowley is elected to be the Majority Whip, with Jared Polis as Chief Deputy Whip and Donna Edwards is tapped as Caucus Chairwoman, with Joseph Kennedy III as Vice-Chair. Ben Ray Lujan will stay on as head of the DCCC after his wildly successful first term.

Republicans keep Kevin McCarthy on as Minority Leader, Steve Scalise as Minority Whip and Cathy McMorris-Rodgers remains Caucus Chairwoman while Pat McHenry stays on as Deputy Whip with Lynn Jenkins being tapped for Policy Committee Chair. Steve Womack is elected as the next head of the Republican Study Committee.

November 2016 (continued): In France, Francois Fillon wins the primary for the UMP, defeating 71-year old Alain Juppé and former President Nicolas Sarkozy, whose campaign implodes under scrutiny of investments in the Middle East and his earlier judicial issues. Arnaud Montebourg defeats Manuel Valls and Martine Aubry to become candidate for the Socialists, sending off warning bells throughout Europe. The same snowstorm causing issues in New England brings Quebec to a halt, with 50 deaths and widespread public anger in Montreal at the lack of municipal response to it. At the halfway point in Narendra Modi's first term, he is already one of the most popular PMs in Indian history with high GDP growth, lowered unemployment and investment pouring in.

December 2016: President Obama gives a farewell address. The Dow Jones hits 19,000 points but falls back to 18,250 by the end of the month. Clinton announces her choice of former Biden chief of staff and DLC head Bruce Reed as White House Chief of Staff, and former New Mexico AG Gary King is tabbed as Vice President-elect Martin Heinrich's chief of staff. Massive snowstorms blanket much of the Midwest, and hundreds of flights are cancelled the week of Christmas.

December 2016 (continued): The caretaker government of Venezuela collapses after a disagreement between Capriles and Cabello, leading to mass violence as chavista paramilitaries begin a massive campaign of violence. Two senior Yemeni government officials are assassinated. In Australia, Tony Abbott drops the writ for a January election. Signs show that the Eurozone is reentering recession by the end of the month.

And now, for Sports: Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson wins the Heisman over LSU running back Leonard Fournette. The third College Football Playoff will feature two-time ACC champion Clemson against Big Twelve champion TCU in the Peach Bowl, and SEC champion LSU against Pac-12 champion USC in the Fiesta Bowl. The Seattle Sounders, winners of the US Open Cup and the runner up to the Supporters Shield, win their first-ever MLS Cup 1-0 over New York City FC. In the FIFA Club World Cup, Mexican side Club América defeats Brazil's Santos and then European champions Juventus in an improbable run to become the first CONCACAF club to take the cup.

January 2017: The 115th Congress convenes, with Democrats holding a 228-207 majority in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate. In the Senate, Chuck Schumer is the new Senate Majority leader, with Dick Durbin staying on at Whip, Patty Murray as Caucus Vice-Chair, Amy Klobuchar as Senate Democratic Secretary, Mark Warner as head of the DSCC, Elizabeth Warren as Chair of the Policy Committee and Jeff Merkley as Chair of Steering and Outreach. It is a considerably more liberal leadership team than before.

Republican caucus members, many feeling burned by the heavy losses accompanying Cruz, stun much of the political world by voting John Thune as Senate Minority Leader over Cornyn, who remains Minority Whip. John Barrasso of Wyoming takes Thune's spot as Conference Chairman, Jerry Moran is elevated to take over as Conference Vice-Chair, and Roger Wicker is tapped to Policy Committee Chair. After his narrow survival in 2016 in flush-with-cash Florida, Marco Rubio is promoted to head of the NRSC with an eye on Bill Nelson's likely retirement, and Colorado's Cory Gardner is made Vice Chairman of the NRSC. It is not lost on anyone that the new Senate leadership team draws significantly more from the Plains and Mountain states than from the South.

January 2017 (continued): The UN Security Council authorizes a peacekeeping force in the increasingly unstable Venezuela, prompted by revelations by two Reuters journalists of a mass grave in the rural, chavista south containing 700 bodies. It is the last crisis of the Obama administration and the first of the Clinton administration. Flash floods in Serbia cause major instability in the country's volatile south. Mariano Rajoy presents to the Spanish Parliament broad constitutional reforms, including a much more federal system with new local control powers to regions, the recognition of "nations within Spain" and the elimination of thirty seats in Parliament.

And now, for Sports: Clemson and LSU advance to face one another at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa for the CFP championship - on a last-minute touchdown drive, Fournette scores on a two-yard run on a misdirection play to defeat Heisman winner Watson and his Tigers 21-20 in an instant classic. In the NFC championship game, the Los Angeles Rams defeat the Seattle Seahawks while in the AFC title game the Indianapolis Colts beat the Kansas City Chiefs. Both home teams advance to the Super Bowl.

Go Colts!

Australian federal election, January 2017

Tony Abbott's Coalition, entering the election with 90 seats, lose 13 seats as the polls narrow between the National-Liberal coalition and Labor. The Coalition knocks off the two seats held by the KAP and PUP, but Labor gains fifteen seats under Bill Shorten's leadership, primarily in areas of metropolitan Sydney and Melbourne they lost earlier. Abbott's economic program and personal unpopularity are cited as reasons for the steep loss, though he is able to retain government due to a still-damaged Labor brand.

The standings in Parliament after the election:

Coalition: 77
Labor: 70
Independent: 2
Green: 1

Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten both remain party leaders.

If it is not a pain, can you list Clinton's cabinet?

The Administration of Hillary Rodham Clinton

President: Hillary Clinton (former Secretary of State, Senator for NY and First Lady of the United States)
Vice President: Martin Heinrich (former Senator and US Representative from NM)

Secretary of State: Joe Biden (former Vice President and Senator from DE)
Secretary of Defense: Tom Donilon (former National Security Advisor)
Secretary of the Treasury: Clint Zweifel (former Missouri State Treasurer)
Attorney General: Eric Schneiderman (former New York Attorney General)
Secretary of the Interior: Mark Udall (former Senator from CO)
Secretary of Agriculture: Mark Pryor (former Senator from AR)
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Julian Castro (holdover from Obama admin; former Mayor of San Antonio)
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Sylvia Burwell (holdover from Obama admin)
Secretary of Education: Dennis Walcott (former Chancellor of New York Public School System)
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Ralph Northam (former Lieutenant Governor of Virginia and Army Medical Corps officer)
Secretary of Commerce: Glenn Nye (former Representative for Virginia's 2nd Congressional District)
Secretary of Labor: Loretta Lynch (former United States Attorney General)
Secretary of Transportation: Anthony Foxx (holdover from Obama admin; former Mayor of Charlotte)
Secretary of Energy: Heather Wilson (former US Representative for New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District; ran against Vice President Martin Heinrich in the 2012 Senatorial election. Only Republican in Clinton's Cabinet.)
Secretary of Homeland Security: Susan Rice (former US Ambassador to the UN and National Security Advisor)

Udall and Pryor in the cabinet is very interesting. Great timeline.

The inauguration of Hillary Clinton: All five living former Presidents are present at the inauguration, in which Clinton hearkens often back to her husband's prosperous term and promises, "Together, we can recapture that American dream for generations to come."

Her inaugural ball is criticized early for its excesses, though she invites the entire Congressional leadership from both Houses to attend, wanting to try to show a more bipartisan era, and dances with both Speaker Hoyer and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy in an odd, awkward exchange.

The Obamas fly first to Chicago and then to Hawaii for a much-overdue vacation. Sympathetic pundits weigh in that Obama's term was mostly successful - the economy improved, albeit slowly, so that when he left office the unemployment rate was only 5.4%, the stock markets rallied and the United States became one of the world's largest oil producers. In terms of actual policies, healthcare remains his biggest and most divisive accomplishment, in addition to immigration and environmental administrative actions. His term is noted for the sharp rise in partisanship, particularly from Republicans, and he is criticized for his apparent aloofness, his seeming distaste for the politics required by the office, his inability to leverage his status as the first black President into doing much for race relations, his close-knit circle of advisers who seemed to hamstring him, and his somewhat sclerotic foreign policy. All in all, most pundits give him a decent review and caution that like with all Presidents, his legacy will improve with time.

The attitude of most Republican pundits is something along the lines of "Don't let the door hit you on the way out," though few say as much.

:| Still waiting for Russ Feingold...

This is very well written but also extremely biased and implausible.

February 2017: Susana Martinez appoints her Lieutenant Governor, John Sanchez, to serve out the remainder of VP Martin Heinrich's term. Clinton makes her first foreign visit as President to Mexico, where she meets with President Pena Nieto, before traveling to Colombia to discuss the UN intervention in Venezuela with the leaders of Colombia, Peru, Chile and Brazil. Chuck Schumer does not ax the filibuster as is widely anticipated, instead maintaining the "Reid Rule" on judicial and executive nominations while opening up the amendment tree per Republican requests, but also requires "talking filibusters" per Democratic requests. Nobody in either party is particularly happy with the result, with many Democrats wanting to kill the filibuster completely and Republicans frustrated that their minority rights are being trampled on, warning that Schumer will turn the Senate into another House. Revised GDP figures show only 1.1% growth in the last quarter of 2016 on the heels of a sub-200,000 job employment report, sending the Dow Jones down to 17,200.

Hoyer's narrow House majority passes a flurry of surprisingly liberal bills, most passing with only a handful of defections from members in conservative districts and almost unanimous Republican opposition whipped by Scalise. These measures include:

• The Minimum Wage Act of 2017, raising the federal minimum wage to $8.75 on January 1, 2018 and 10.25 on January 1, 2019, with the wage indexed to 1.25 times the rate of inflation from then on.
• The National Overtime Restoration Act, introduced in the House by Jerrold Nadler and in the Senate by Maria Cantwell. The NORA reestablishes a 40-hour workweek for all salaried and wage-labor positions that earn less than $75,000 per year. It does not account for total household income. Democrats sell the measure as a stimulatory effect meant to promote job security, worker productivity and even lower unemployment.
• The Financial Crisis Prevention Act (FCPA), a new Glass-Steagall, which repeals Gramm-Leach-Bliley and strengthens the SEC's authority to investigate and prosecute wrongdoing. The bill becomes known as Warren-Waters, as Liz Warren introduces it in the Senate and Maxine Waters, chair of the House Financial Services Committee, brings it out of her committee to the floor of the house. The measure passes both Houses and is signed by President Clinton despite fierce lobbying by the Chamber of Commerce and Wall Street. Despite rumors that Schumer and Warner plan to kill it, the measure passes the Senate 61-49, with Jeff Flake, Brian Sandoval, Dean Heller, Steve Daines, Susan Collins, John Hoeven, Rand Paul and Lamar Alexander crossing over to approve it.
• The Law Enforcement Reform Act (LERA). The act is fairly small ball, simply curtailing the amount of excess military supplies the Pentagon may sell to law enforcement each year and providing supplies for local police agencies to use body cameras.
• Women's Reproductive Fairness Act. The act, introduced by Kathy Castor in the House and Republican Senator Cory Gardner in the Senate, makes it a federal statute to allow over-the-counter birth control pills without a prescription sold to anyone over the age of 18 nationwide, with an amendment allowing states to set the statutory age lower if they wish. Republican support for the measure in the Senate nearly collapses when Kamala Harris attempts to include morning-after pills in the bill.
  

A number of liberal priorities do not pass either House. Stringent fracking regulations introduced by Deputy Whip Jared Polis fail to pass a floor vote, with over half of the Democratic caucus voting against it along with unanimous Republican opposition. Attempts to introduce mandatory nationwide sick leave stalls after many conservative Democrats allow NORA and the minimum wage to pass but, led by Wisconsin freshman Gordon Hintz, announce that "two out of three ain't bad." Card check legislation flounders even worse than in the 111th Congress, especially in light of setbacks to organized labor in the intervening years. A new oil windfall tax and expansion of the EITC fail as well over opposition from conservative Democrats and Republicans in both Houses.

February 2017 (continued): Colombia becomes the staging ground for 40,000 UN troops, with 8,000 troops supplied by the United States and 4,000 sent by France. Brazil mobilizes 20,000 soldiers that it stations along its long, remote border with Venezuela, the largest military operation undertaken by the country in decades. A passenger train derails in China, killing 171 people on board. An earthquake strikes Kenya, causing widespread damage and up to 20,000 dead. A massive general strike begins in Italy over labor and pension reforms undertaken by Renzi's center-left PD government, shutting the country down.

And now, for Sports: The No. 1 Defense of the Los Angeles Rams faces off against the No. 1 offense of the Indianapolis Colts in Super Bowl LI. Colts QB Andrew Luck throws for 371 yards, three touchdowns with no interceptions and runs for a fourth as he paces the Colts to a 38-21 win over the Rams to earn the Colts' third Super Bowl championship and first since 2007. Luck wins Super Bowl MVP, becoming the first player since Kurt Warner in 1999 to win both Super Bowl and regular season MVP and the first player to win both MVP awards and NFL Offensive Player of the Year since Joe Montana in 1989. In the NBA, Kevin Durant, in his first season with the Washington Wizards, becomes the first player in NBA history to score 50 points four games in a row as the Wizards go undefeated in the month of February.

March 2016: At the midway point of her first "hundred days," President Clinton announces her five-point domestic plan: the expansion of the United States as an energy power, a "streamlining" of the federal bureaucracy through consolidation and a vaguely-defined "checklist" system, comprehensive immigration overhaul, improving veteran's care/employment and criminal justice reform. She challenges Congress to pass a major piece touching each item by the end of the calendar year.

Democrats pass their budget on a mostly party-line vote in both chambers, with seven Democrats defecting in the House and three Democrats (Heitkamp, Donnelly and Manchin) defecting in the Senate so that Heinrich has to be the tiebreaking vote. The reconciled budget, needing only 51 votes to pass, eliminates the cap on Social Security taxes, raises the debt ceiling for ten years, establishes a windfall tax on oil and natural gas to pay for public transportation, adds a 5% surtax on income over 1 million dollars, adds a 0.5% tax on intraday financial transactions, and closes dozens of tax loopholes and extends the depreciation lifetime of dozens of others. Spending programs include subsidies for affordable housing, increased infrastructure grants, the establishment of a private-public infrastructure bank, and a cut in student loan rates. The budget also sets a blueprint to eliminate duplicitous federal programs and increase the federal retirement age to 68 by 2030, with an increase to 66 in 2025. Republicans protest the budget as a liberal power-grab, and the budget does not poll well.

March 2017 (continued): Plenty of action in the Commonwealth. In both Britain and Canada, the minority governments fail to pass their budgets after minor parties granting them confidence decline to help them pass the budget packages. Ed Balls calls a general election and dismisses the government, while Trudeau pulls the budget to avoid a dissolution and high-level negotiations begin with the NDP. Protests spread in Argentina after the government narrowly avoids another default. The crisis in Venezuela shows no sign of improving despite the two-month old UN intervention. The last Ebola case in West Africa is identified, after 30,000 dead over three years.

Russian Instability: Protests envelop Russia, particularly Moscow and St. Petersburg, after the shooting death of a popular music star in what is believed to be a Mafia-sanctioned hit on her boyfriend. The protests come to be a catch-all for general discontent with a recession-wracked economy, autocratic government, and collapsing standards of living. The irony that these protests are occurring 100 years after the fall of the Romanovs, and on Twitter the hashtag "Russian Revolution 2017" trends.

Hm, I'm liking what's passed so far. I'm just wondering how the dems are going to survive 2018 after all this.

April 2017: Reform bill passes Congress to merge the US Department of the Interior with the US Department of Energy and the EPA to form a "Department of Natural Resources." The blueprint is subject to intense debate in the Senate, where Republicans desire to use the opportunity to roll back the responsibilities of all three departments. The bill eventually passes after Raul Labrador's filibuster is ended and a target date of June 1, 2020 is set for the merger to be 100% done.

In the Senate, Cory Booker and Rand Paul present the "Drug Sentencing Reform Act of 2017" (DSRA) which significantly increase the amounts required to trigger federal mandatory minimum sentence laws, give prosecutors and judges significantly more discretion for "medium amount" drug possession charges, forbids federal agents from prosecuting non-violent offenses in states with decriminalization statutes and decriminalizes non-violent marijuana offenders without a prior criminal conviction. In a sister bill also introduced by Paul, co-sponsored by Kamala Harris, the "Criminal Justice and Enforcement Reform Act" (CJERA), the Justice Department revamps its federal sentencing procedures, giving considerably more discretion to prosecutors and slashing prison sentence lengths across the board and promotes work release. Two major Clinton initiatives have thus seen progress so far.

In the middle of the month, tragedy strikes when Speaker of the House Steny Hoyer suffers a fatal stroke and passes away at the age of 77. He is the first Speaker to die in office since Sam Rayburn in 1961, and has the second-shortest Speakership in history and the shortest Speakership to last more than 1 day. The House Democratic Caucus elects to take a "next man up" approach, elevating Xavier Becerra to Speaker, Joe Crowley to Majority Leader and Donna Edwards to Majority Whip after she defeats Jared Polis for the job, who stays on as Chief Deputy Whip. Joe Kennedy becomes Caucus Chair and taps Joe Courtney as Vice Chair. Hoyer lies in state in the US Capitol and is buried in Mechanicsville, Maryland, his home. President Clinton, former President Obama, Speaker Becerra, former Speakers Pelosi and Boehner, and Minority Leader McCarthy all speak at his funeral.

April 2017 (continued): Budget negotiations between the Liberals and New Democrats in Canada collapse at the end of the month two days before a budget is due and Trudeau drops the writ to call an election for the first week of June. The campaign in Britain heats up. Russian police and paramilitaries fire upon protestors, causing mass riots complete with tear gas and firebombings in the capital. FIFA debates moving the 2017 Confederations Cup over concern that the situation is too unstable in Russia. Nawaz Sharif is narrowly reelected in general elections in Pakistan as Prime Minister. The death toll from the Syrian civil war is now estimated to have reached 200,000, and Assad looks to have secured a pyrrhic victory with ISIS largely beaten back into a handful of enclaves and the rebels scattered and poorly trained.

And now, for Sports: FIFA decides not to move the Confederations Cup by the end of the month. At the 2017 Final Four in Glendale, Arizona, the Arizona Wildcats win their second national championship and first since 1997 in front of a raucous home crowd after defeating the loaded Kentucky Wildcats in the semifinals and then beating the Cinderella VCU Rams in the Finals, VCU having defeated Connecticut in their own semifinal.

French Presidential election, 2017

Francois Fillon and Marine Le Pen advance to the runoff with 38% and 28% of the vote, respectively. Arnaud Montebourg is able to only garner 25%, eliminating him from the race, while several smaller parties, including a stridently left-wing outfit calling itself New Left, takes the remainder.

It is the second time in the 20th century at the National Front makes the runoff, and the second time in which it faces the UMP in such a scenario. Most moderate Socialists defect to Fillon, as do most from the moderate parties that did not advance further. The runoff shows the following percentage:

Francois Fillon: 58%
Marine Le Pen: 42%

It is still a frighteningly high total for the FN and gives the party hope that it can soon attain even greater victories. Fillon is sworn in as the 24th President of France.

It is extremely unlikely and practically impossible that Susana Martinez, the Republican governor of New Mexico will appoint Bill Richardson, a Democrat to Heinrich's seat. The only time a Governor appointed a member of the opposing party to the Senate in recent years was in 2007 when Wyoming governor Dave Freudenthal, a Democrat, appointed John Barrasso, a Republican. However, Freudenthal had no choice as per Wyoming state law, he was forced to chose between three people (all Republicans) presented to him by the Republican dominated state legislature and picked Barrasso by default because he was the most moderate of the three.

But this is not just any Democrat, it's Bill Richardson, who us Hispanic Republicans probably despise more than any Democrat for his comments he made about Ted Cruz hinting he is "not Hispanic" by his conservative politics.  I'm not a fan of Mr. Cruz at all but as a Hispanic Republican, it makes me cringe when I hear one of the most prominent Hispanic politicians in the country infer that in order to be "Hispanic," you must be a liberal Democrat as well. Thanks, Bill. So yes, I sure Martinez who made history as the nation's first Latina governor and just so happens to have an R next to her name loves these comments and will appoint Richardson to the Senate.

I feel a little sad reading this, because I know this timeline could be a lot better. This could probably even be the best timeline on the entire website if you just do not let your personal biases cloud the plausibility of this timeline. It's very plausible that 2016 will be a very good year for the Democrats. That being said, your TL takes that and puts it to an extreme. It's impossible the Democrats will take the House due to Republican gerrymandering, unless there's something really stupid the Republican congress does (and I mean not a shutdown like in 2013 but something along the lines of trying to impeach Obama which they repeatedly stated they won't do), or a resurgence of Blue Dogs or a combination of these things. However, to say that Democrats take the House based on Hillary coattails alone (which is based on what I read so far probably your most likely explanation) shows a lacking of American politics beyond belief. As I mentioned before, based on the shape of the American electorate, a lot of the votes that will put Clinton over the edge will come from Republican-leaning independents and moderate Republicans who are disillusioned by Cruz's divisive rhetoric, not voting for Clinton because they love her. As a result, they will vote for Republicans for congress (since their vote for president is not as much for Clinton as it is against Cruz) and a ton of Republicans in marginal districts that went for Clinton will win re-election. And Ed Royce losing re-election, seriously? I have family in that district, and don't be fooled by it's R+5 PVI, there's virtually no Democrats there. Royce is an insanely popular congressman and will have that district as long as he wants, end of story.

And If you really want Richardson to be a senator you know there's a Senate election in 2018...

I'm sorry you find the TL biased, Charles. I've tried to consider current trends in sketching out this TL and throw in "random" events like in real life and random upset wins, I.e. Chris Gibson surviving in NY in a D wave. D hackery is hardly my intention.

As for Richardson, my understanding is that the NM Governor is required to appoint someone of the same party. I was originally going to put Heather Wilson (R) in that seat. I figured Martinez would tap someone unlikely to run in 2018 to effect an open seat and help her party that way. I don't particularly care for Bill Richardson myself, I just couldn't think of anyone else who fits those requirements.

The only states where it's required to fill the seat with someone from the same party are Arizona, Hawaii, Utah, and Wyoming.

See that makes sense.

And most timelines are biased, stop being babies.

Is it really so unbelievable that the Democrats could landslide in 2016?  No one serious is saying that Clinton will definitely win this big, but its certainly within the realm of possibility.

If a Republican in late 2004 read a TL describing what actually was going to happen from 2006 to 2008, they would call it biased.  If a Democrat read a TL describing the 2010 elections right after Obama's 2008 landslide, they would call it biased as well.

Not to mention, timelines are more entertaining when they're interesting, and having two new speakers of the house is definitely that!

This is not biased. Quit whining.

This is one of the best timelines we have had, and who is to say that 2020 won't be a bad year for Hillary? Keep up the great work KingSweeden!

I would hardly call a Clinton v.s. Cruz matchup where Clinton only picks up NC biased...

Thank you all for the support and constructive criticism.

As an aside, anyone who enjoys this timeline and has a Kindle feel free to message me and I can give you the link to my self-published work on Amazon.

Thanks! Since I already have a task for Heather Wilson now, I suppose it's congratulations to Senator John Sanchez.

I like the Sec. of Energy pick in Wilson :)

Keep on updating, I'm personally enjoying it and would call it more probable that many other timelines posted on this board.

United Kingdom general election, 2015

The campaign is forced after Ed Ball's second budget fails to pass Parliament, with the informal Labour-Lib Dem-SNP-Plaid-SDLP "confidence pact" collapsing. The Tories had lead in polls for months and capitalized by gaining seats at Labour and Lib Dem expense - however, UKIP gains in the south and northwest again and Labour snags back numerous seats from the SNP. For the third election in a row, no party has a majority of seats.

The seat totals in the House of Commons after the election:

Conservative Party: 293
Labour Party: 270
UK Independence Party: 32
Scottish National Party: 20
Liberal Democratic Party: 16
Democratic Unionist Party: 8
SDLP: 4
Plaid Cymru: 3
Sinn Fein: 3 (in abstention)
Green Party: 3

It is the first election in which no party reaches 300 seats. PM Ed Balls concedes that Labour has no combination of parties it can cobble together to reach the magical 326. Tory leader George Osborne declares victory and immediately begins looking to the Liberal Democrats, DUP, Greens and Plaid Cymru to stitch together an ideologically diverse coalition that will govern as a strong minority. After several days of negotiations, the Greens and Plaid pull out, leaving the Tories to look to the Lib Dems for a "confidence pact" and with Osborne feeling heat from his right flank to create a coalition with the UK Independence Party.

After two weeks of a hung parliament, which the presses call a "Government in Crisis," Osborne announces that he will govern in a minority government with a "confidence pact" in which the Labour Party pledges to give the government confidence. Though it is not an official grand coalition, it is compared to ones in Austria or Sweden over the last several years. In return for Labour's continued confidence in his government, Osborne promises not to hold any referendums on EU membership, cut welfare benefits or take any steps towards public sector union reform. Osborne's agreement with Balls is slammed by the Conservative Party's right wing, which points out that the Tories could have had a majority government in a Tory-UKIP coalition. Osborne's supporters on the right and in the middle counter that a UKIP coalition would be extremely volatile and Nigel Farage could effectively dictate government policy on threat of pulling out of the Cabinet.

17 days after the election, George Osborne is invited by Queen Elizabeth II to form a government and become the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

May 2017: Democrats fail to agree on a single education reform bill, with a student loan forgiveness and tuition subsidy plan floated by Elizabeth Warren failing in the House. Clinton urges compromise as immigration starts to come to the fore, with many Democrats seeking to build on Obama's 2014 executive order with others wanting to go with the 2013 Senate immigration blueprint. Republicans, smarting from their drubbing with Hispanics in the elections six months earlier, warily endorse some sort of plan, with Thune signalling that he wants GOP priorities reflected in any immigration bill. Cruz begins to whip grassroots conservative support against the bill in the Senate while Steve King and Louie Gohmert do the same in the House, while Jeff Flake and Brian Sandoval take point on drawing up a plan in the Senate to bring to the negotiating table. Supreme Court justice Stephen Breyer announces that he will retire after the June decisions are handed down.

May 2017 (continued): A month before the national elections in Canada, British Columbia elects its Legislative Assembly. After sixteen years in power, the center-right BC Liberals are defeated by the left-wing NDP, which form a minority government under John Horgan after the Greens and third-party Conservatives win enough seats to prevent a majority. The seat count:

NDP: 40
BC Liberals: 35
Greens: 7
Conservatives: 3

The election gives the Greens their highest-ever seat total in a provincial legislature. Osborne and Fillon attend NATO meetings in Oslo in their first week in office to discuss the situations in Venezuela, Syria and Russia. The Russian riots keep escalating, with entire apartment tenements lit on fire by protestors and hundreds fleeing the cities as the violence escalates. Russian forces are withdrawn from the Ukrainian frontier, taking the pressure off of the frozen conflict in the Donbass.

Venezuela Crisis: A platoon of American Marines are ambushed in the remote border town of Puerto Ayacucho while on call to help Colombian border guards who are attacked by FARC and ENV (Ejercito Nacional Venezolano, a chavista rebel group) forces. Four of the Marines are captured and the rest of their platoon, under heavy fire, fights their way back to Colombia to report the incident, and then head back into the city to free their kidnapped comrades. Only one of the Marines is killed rescuing the hostages, all of whom survive. After being airlifted back to the United States, it is cited as an episode of true bravery by American forces in an impossible situation in the media.

The event lends credence to American and Colombian testimony that FARC is actively supporting the disparate chavista rebels in Venezuela and Colombia, without UN authorization, expands its military operations in the border region of its country. Much of the corridor between Caracas and the Colombian border is under UN control now, with Caracas and Maracaibo and the rural south the most volatile parts of the country.

And now, for Sports: Bayern Munich wins its seventh European Cup by defeating Marseille in the Champions League final, taking their third championship of the decade (having won in 2012-13 and 2014-15). Robert Lewandowski is the UEFA Man of the Match, while the tournament's top scorer is Real Madrid's James Rodriguez and the CL Best Player is Barcelona's Neymar. Both of the Spanish powers were eliminated in the semifinals, preventing what would have been a truly epic final at Vienna's National Stadium.

Canadian federal election, 2017

After the budget negotiations collapse, Justin Trudeau leads his party into the 2017 campaign in a position of strength. Neither leader of the CPC or NDP have been in leadership longer than eight months and the NDP is broadly blamed in polls for the collapse of budget negotiations. In leadership debates, Tory leader John Baird does not perform particularly well in the leadership debate despite being regarded as a good debater, and Trudeau runs a sunny, positive campaign portraying the other parties as being politically petty. Though his strategy is roundly criticized as hypocritical after a nineteen-month old government that has accomplished little of note, Trudeau's Liberals never once lag in the polls.

Seat results:

Liberals: 174
Conservatives: 108
NDP: 51
Greens: 5

The Bloc Quebecois vanishes completely from Parliament after 24 years of having seated at least one MP. The NDP continues its post-2011 decline, losing sixteen seats. The Tories hold their own despite a net loss of seats, regaining some territory in rural Ontario and Manitoba while losing more ground in the Toronto and Vancouver suburbs as the Liberals take a bite out of NDP seats in Quebec and BC once again. Trudeau now controls a Liberal majority, which swiftly passes the budget and is safe until October of 2021.

Who is leader of the NDP?

Nathan Cullen. Figured they'd want someone Trudeau's age who can steer the party long-term.

2017 FIFA Confederations Cup Part One

In what FIFA hopes will not become a regular occurrence, the Confederations Cup is marked by the peaceful, but occasionally violent, protests rocking Russia. Putin's hopes that the Russian team and world spotlight will rear up patriotic fervor backfires - protestors use the opportunity to highlight authoritarian brutality on a global stage.

Visiting athletes are protected by private security hired by FIFA and the national associations, and the players tweet and post pictures of the chaos over Russian objections. Foreign countries send openly gay dignitaries to spite Russia's laws on homosexuality. However, the protests do subside somewhat in the first weeks as many Russians seek to show a proud nation to the world.

Group A:

Russia (host)
United States (CONCACAF Champion)
New Zealand (2016 OFC Cup Champion)
Portugal (UEFA Euro 2016 Champion)

Russia opens the tournament with a game against New Zealand in Moscow, defeating the Kiwis 2-0 on goals by Shatov and Kokorin in the 55th and 70th minutes. The United States draws against Portugal in a 1-1 affair, with Ronaldo scoring on the Americans in the 10th minute, but the Americans pull even in the 83rd with a header by Jozy Altidore and then Sean Johnson has a miracle save in stoppage time to prevent another goal, this time by Bruma.

The big game in the next match day is Russia and the United States, due to the history of the sporting rivalry and geopolitical tensions in recent years. In front of a stadium in Sochi full of rabid, loud and threatening Russian fans, USA defeats Russia 2-0 on scores by Julian Green (23') and Rubio Rubin (77'). The victory stuns the host Russians. The next day, Portugal blows out New Zealand, with Ronaldo scoring two goals (14', 27') and Bruma (40') and Coentrao (88') to blank the Kiwis 4-0.

In the crucial final day, Portugal defeats Russia 2-1, with Ronaldo scoring in the 11th minute and setting up Eder to score on a cross in the 49th minute. Russia's Shatov manages to hit a penalty kick in the 85th minute, but Ozdoyev's strike in stoppage time is caught by Portuguese goalkeeper Anthony Lopes to prevent a score. Portugal, with 7 points, qualifies to advance to the semifinals. The Americans defeat New Zealand 2-0 with scores by Altidore (37') and Diskerud (55'), but are second-place in the group on aggregate goals.

Points Breakdown:

Portugal 7
USA 7
Russia 3
New Zealand 0

Group B:

Germany (2014 World Cup Champion)
Nigeria (2017 African Cup of Nations Champion)
Australia (2015 AFC Asian Cup Champion)
Colombia (2015 Copa America Champion)

Germany and Australia play the first match, and the Socceroos stun the world by drawing Germany 2-2, with Australia taking a 2-0 lead heading into the break with scores by Luke Brattan (20') and Ben Halloran (45+3'). However, Germany fights back with two scores by Thomas Muller (71', 80') to tie the game and avoid a disastrous start to their campaign. Meanwhile, Colombia defeats Nigeria 3-0 in their first game, with two scores by Jackson (55', 60') and one by Quintero (90+2').

In the next series of matches, Colombia faces Australia and defeats the Socceroos 4-2. Australia's two goals come courtesy of Halloran (17', 89'), while Colombia sees James Rodriguez (22', 48') put up their first two goals and then is complimented by Falcao (63') and Jackson (74'). Germany faces Nigeria, only winning 1-0 with a score from Mats Hummels in the 81st minute, avoiding what would have been a second straight draw.

Australia, hoping to catch Germany, bombs in a 0-0 draw with Nigeria, making it impossible to advance regardless of the result in Germany's next game. Germany defeats Colombia 2-1, with Muller (20') and Gotze (51') scoring to put Germany up high and James scoring in the 70th to put them in a position to tie, but his strike in stoppage is cradled by Marc-André ter Stegen. Germany takes first position in their group while Colombia advances as the runner-up.

Points Breakdown:

Germany 7
Colombia 6
Australia 2
Nigeria 0

As a New Mexican, what can you tell me about John Sanchez, Dianna Duran, Hector Balderas, Richard Berry, and Timothy Keller?

2017 Confederations Cup Part Two

Semifinals:

Portugal vs. Colombia

The game starts well for Portugal, with Ronaldo scoring off of a cross from Bruma in the 14th minute. However, in the 31st minute Portugal defender Cédric Soares nudges a ball backwards that ricochets off of goalkeeper Anthony Lopes for an own goal attributed to Soares. With the game tied, James scores in the 47th minute, only to see Soares hit a header in the 66th minute to tie the game again. The game thus goes to extra time, and in the 118th minute James scores on a penalty kick. At 120+2', Ronaldo hits a strike that is expertly deflected by Colombian keeper David Ospina. It is regarded as the best game of the tournament, preserving Colombia's win and propelling them into the final.

USA vs. Germany

The game is scoreless for almost its entirety until the 80th minute, when Diskerud scores on a cross from Altidore to take a 1-0 lead. Müller hits a penalty kick at 90+1', sending the game to extra minutes. American keeper Sean Johnson blocks four German kicks in the two halves and in minute 119 Michael Bradley scores on a cross from substitute Clint Dempsey, giving the USA a rare 2-1 over an elite European side to propel them into another Confederations Cup final (having played in the 2009 event).

Third Place:

In the third place match, Germany beats down Portugal, defeating them 4-1. Müller (11'), Kroos (30'), Götze (58') and Schürrle (77') all score for Germany, while Portugal's lone goal is scored by Eder in the 24th minute. It gives Germany yet another top-three finish in a major tournament.

Final

The final pitches USA and Colombia against each other in Moscow, where the mixed Colombian and Russian crowd is overwhelmingly cheering for the Americans to lose. It is not lost on any commentators that the US and Colombia are currently fighting side-by-side in Venezuela and the players meet at midfield before the match to shake hands and embrace.

As for the game itself, it starts well for the Colombians, with Quintero scoring in the 6th minute. The Americans draw up the score on a Michael Bradley cross to DeAndre Yedlin at 22', but the Colombians respond at 40' with a Jackson score on a James assist. The Colombians lead all the way until 89', when Julian Green breaks free down the field, shoots the ball over to Clint Dempsey and thus sets up a game-tying score.

Sean Johnson deflects what would be a go-ahead score by James at 114', and then in extra time stoppage cradles a shot from Falcao. The game thus goes to penalty kicks.

The kicking results:

Jackson (COL): Good
Yedlin (USA): Good
Quintero (COL): No Good
Green (USA): Good
James (COL): Good
Dempsey (USA): No Good
Falcao (COL): No Good
Nguyen (USA): Good
Córdoba (COL): No Good

The United States wins the 2017 Confederations Cup on penalties, 3-2! It is the first major non-CONCACAF international title for the United States and is without doubt the crowning achievement in USA men's soccer history.

Awards

Best Player: Jozy Altidore, USA
Best Goaltender: Sean Johnson, USA
Top Scorers: Thomas Müller and Cristiano Ronaldo (5)

June 2017: President Clinton announces her support for Kirsten Gillibrand's military sexual assault proposal, which just barely gains enough support to make it to the floor, where it passes with decent Republican support. In return for GOP votes, Brian Sandoval attaches an amendment amending Title IX to require any public university receiving federal funds to turn rape allegations to the police and completely end the ability of school disciplinary boards to hear or arbitrate sexual assault cases. Though the two are regarded as unrelated, the bill passes both House and Senate and Clinton signs them into law, citing "Gillibrand-Sandoval" as "a major step in ending the culture of intimidation and denial that comes with sexual crimes within institutions." Pundits remark on the incredible comity, bipartisanship and productiveness of the current Congress.

MD-05: The primary elections for the July special election to replace Steny Hoyer is held near the end of the month. All three candidates are State Represenatives from Southern Maryland - Anthony O'Donnell is unopposed in the Republican primary, while CT Wilson, chairman of the Maryland House Black Caucus, faces John Bohanan. Bohanan hits Wilson for his vote against the legalization of same-sex marriage and paints him as a DINO - it is one of the ugliest Democratic primaries in Maryland state history. Bohanan narrowly wins to face O'Donnell in what promises to be a low-turnout summer special.

June 2017 (continued): Trudeau passes his budget on a party-line vote. Osborne announces the most ambitious loosening of building and zoning rules in British history, freeing up nearly 45% of the London green belts for construction in a bid to cool booming housing prices. The Austrian grand coalition collapses over a tax and spending agreement, forcing early elections. Hassan Rohani is reelected as President of Iran over both more liberal and more conservative opponents. Ukrainian forces drive rebels over the border and have completely secured the Donbass. Rumors emerge that Ukraine plans to seize Crimea next. Nicolas Maduro, in exile in Cuba, gives an address disseminated on the internet encouraging chavista partisans to keep fighting, stating, "If the revolution fails here, it will be used by the capitalists to claim that it must fail everywhere!" Violence in Venezuela continues to escalate as anti-chavista forces begin to arm themselves with heavier weapons and begin a "de-Bolivarization" of the countryside.

And now, for Sports: The Washington Wizards defeat the Houston Rockets in six games to win their second NBA Championship, with Kevin Durant earning MVP honors. The Nashville Predators defeat the New Jersey Devils in five games to win their first Stanley Cup, with Filip Forsberg earning the Hart Trophy.

July 2017: The outlines of an immigration deal are sketched in the Senate after Sandoval and Flake agree to "basic principles" with Schumer and Mark Warner. Ted Cruz threatens to kibosh the deal and Republicans begin whipping votes in the House to prevent anything from passing, earning them a stern rebuke from Sandoval, who declares, "This needs to happen. This is going to happen. I am going to vote for it, and you should too. You can either accept that reform is happening and be part of a Republican Party that contributed to it, or you don't." Another Liz Warren-led tuition reform plan fails in the Senate in committee. John Bohanan wins the special election in MD-05 by less than 2%.

July 2017 (continued): The American, British, French and Australian contributions to the Venezuela mission are vastly increased. Colombian forces have secured the entire frontier and unleashed a massive attack on FARC forces that broke the ceasefire brokered in 2015. The death toll in Venezuela continues to rise as rival paramilitaries begin to target civilians, including 27 schoolchildren murdered when their school bus is seized. Drug money and weapons from old Colombian cartels and seized from the mostly disbanded Venezuelan military begin to proliferate, and Colombian forces are reinforced to defend the lawless border region.

And now, for Sports: A few weeks after winning the Confederations Cup, the United States defeats Panama in the final of the 2017 Gold Cup to win their third straight title in the competition. The IOC elects to give the 2024 Summer Olympics to Boston, which will be the first American Summer Olympics since 1996 and the first Olympiad in the United States since 2002. Later in the month, UEFA votes to give the 2024 Euro competition to Germany over a Scotland-Ireland bid and Spain.

August 2017: Congress goes on recess without anything passed for immigration or energy, and there are angry town halls over the immigration issue similar to 2009 and 2013 for many Republican Congressmen. Ruth Bader Ginsburg checks into the hospital with heart palpitations - two days later she has passed away, opening up the first vacancy of Hillary's term. Hillary surprises many by announcing that she will nominate California Senator and former AG and prosecutor Kamala Harris to the bench. Many conservative outside groups demand her blockage by the Senate, though most Republican Senators are uncertain about blocking one of their colleagues and Thune says in an interview, "Senator Harris is a sharp woman with a unique legal background. I'd prefer someone with experience as a judge, but she doesn't significantly alter the balance of the court and I don't think she's under qualified, by any means."

August 2017 (continued): Demonstrations begin in Japan over escalating consumer prices as the economy dips into yet another recession. With the turmoil in Russia and Venezuela, and the ongoing (but much subdued) conflict with ISIS in the Middle East, oil cross $90 a barrel for the first time since summer of 2014. Nicolas Sarkozy is installed by Francois Fillon as Prime Minister to unite the quarreling factions of the UMP and they introduce a surprisingly right-wing budget, with pension and spending cuts, tax relief and regulatory reform. The Socialist Party, still smarting from its landslide losses earlier in the year, rebels, encouraging general strikes. Italy sees 2% growth for the first time in years.

And now, for Sports: A big week in the NFL as future Hall of Fame QBs Tom Brady and Drew Brees both retire during training camp. Never before have two such accomplished players retired simultaneously. Huge news out of Europe as Chelsea FC announces the signing of Lionel Messi and Quintero to an already stacked roster of big-name talent. To keep pace in the arms race, Paris St. Germain shocks the world by signing Paul Pogba away from Juventus and Radamel Falcao away from Monaco.

Wasn't Breyer going to resign

I have a feeling Clinton will have a big impact on the court.

September 2017: Clinton nominates Sri Srinivasan to take the place of Stephen Breyer, and he is quickly approved by the judiciary committee. The Republicans decide not to filibuster his nomination and he passes 63-37. Breyer steps down the next day. Harris' nomination goes to the Senate the next week so both can be seated for October and November cases, and Harris is approved more narrowly, only passing the Senate 56-44 after many Republicans elect not to vote for her over her lack of judicial experience. It is the first time two new Supreme Court justices have been seated the same week. The Court maintains its 5-4 conservative majority. Republicans also present their energy and immigration plans, with the energy reform written by John Hoeven and Thom Tillis and the immigration plan written by Brian Sandoval and Jeff Flake. President Clinton declares an "autumn of action" to pass both large compromise bills, with many Democrats protesting the energy plan for lacking the environmental safeguards many of them (and their donors) were looking for.

September 2017 (continued): In the Austrian snap elections, the ÖVP places first over the FPÖ, with each taking 30% and 24%, respectively. The SPÖ, wracked by ugly internal conflicts, places at 20%, one of its worst showings in history, and loses 14 seats. NEOS, the liberal alternative, clocks in at 16% while the Greens win 10%. The ÖVP forms a government of only 93 seats with NEOS, ending the SPÖVP grand coalition, with the FPÖ forming the main opposition. Iraqi forces stir controversy when they massacre IS forces in northern Iraq to the tune of hundreds of jihadi fighters. A major earthquake strikes Kyushu, killing 3,500 people. The Russian protests have mostly been quelled by now, with protestors and anti-Putin billionaires retreating to plot how to flip the energy to their advantage in parliamentary elections in December and in the spring Presidential election.

And now, for sports: A stunner in the NHL, as the Toronto Maple Leafs, a few months after signing free agent Steve Stamkos, trade two first round draft picks and two young players to the Pittsburgh Penguins for Sidney Crosby. It is the biggest trade since the Kings traded for Wayne Gretzky.

Thanks for catching that, indeed he was. I added that to the September 2017 section even though his replacement would likely have passed through earlier.

German federal election, 2017

Angela Merkel and her CDU/CSU coalition heads into the elections confident of another majority, campaigning on Germany's stable (yet mediocre) economy and her confident leadership after twelve years in power. The opposition SPD, which has spent the past four years part of her government, has little to run on her against as they were in the Cabinet. The Alternative for Germany, a Eurosceptic right-wing party, has lost much of its steam since its founding and the Left has taken a chunk out of the SPD's natural base along with the Greens.

In the election, Merkel's CDU/CSU wins 44% of the vote, the SPD takes only 20%, the Left takes 14%, the Greens take 11% and the AfD takes 9%. The FDP once again fails to enter the Bundestag, this time only managing 2% of the vote. The CDU/CSU has won its first outright, albeit narrow, majority in the Bundestag since the Kohl era - the election is Merkel's greatest triumph yet.

Your timeline is great, but a little nitpick: the numbers add up to 100%, forgetting the usual German share for "other parties" of a few %, and the CDU/CSU's 44% is smaller than SPD+Grüne+Linke's 45%.

Wow, you even covered Austria! I can just hope that this won't happen in the next elections :P
This TL really is great and extremely detailed, though!

But didn't Merkel nearly get a majority of seats in 2013 with only 41% of the vote? It looks like she was only four or five seats shy of an absolute, no-coalition government.

October 2017: In what is called a "grand compromise," Thune announces that he will support combined legislative immigration solution in return for Democratic votes for the Republican energy plan. Sandoval and Durbin, the main architect of the Senate Democrats' immigration program, sit down to hash out the details while Heidi Heitkamp and John Hoeven negotiate potential amendments. House Democrats pass a wide-ranging "jobs act" which includes government-subsidized temporary positions modelled on a Georgia plan, reserving part of unemployment funds to subsidize community college education for unemployed workers in a new program called Back To School (BTS), and, after insistence from Republicans needed to pass the bill, reforms to federal contracting policies to allow more competitive bidding and managerial reform to cut costs.

October 2017 (continued): At a confab in Brussels, the EU's four main center-right leaders - Osborne, Fillon, Merkel and Kopacz - chart out a "five-year program" for kick-starting the Eurozone's sluggish but growing economy. The inclusion of Poland over Italy does not go unnoticed in Rome, where Renzi, busy working on his labor market and macroeconomic reforms, bristles at what he calls "closed-door negotiations." A massive earthquake strikes northern India, killing close to 40,000 people in that country and 14,000 in Pakistan. Modi and Sharif pledge to coordinate emergency responses in the volatile border country, a remarkable step for the two oft-hostile nations.

And now, for sports: An embarrassing end to an otherwise excellent postseason as the New York Yankees are swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers in four games in the 2017 World Series. The Yankees have won an AL Pennant in every decade but the 1910s.

Will you cover Italy?

Yeah, but that was with neither the FDP nor the AFD reaching the Bundestag threshold.

I've had a few entries in the international "continued" portions where I've touched on Italian events, though I have to admit that outside of Renzi = left and Berlusconi = right, Italian politics confuses me. So far in this TL, Renzi has passed electoral reform and had snap elections in 2015.

Cool. Can you give me the link to this one, please?

Ah, of course. I didn't think of that, though I thought it was wild that FDP lost 93 seats outright. What #'s would the CDU/CSU need for an outright majority with AFD entering the Bundestag?

Of course! Of course, only a small part is about Austria, but here's the TL (so far, of course).

http://althistory.wikia.com/wiki/Cinco_De_Mayo

Haha yeah sure, thank you!

United States elections, 2017

Virginia

Governor: It is revealed in an extensive Washington Post report that after being drawn into the same district by court-ordered redistricting, Randy Forbes and Scott Rigell met at a Virginia Beach steakhouse in late 2015 to discuss 2017. They agree that rather than risk a primary in a competitive seat, one will run for Governor and the other will run for the seat. Forbes, having been in Congress close to a decade longer than Rigell, offers to run for Governor and then back Rigell in a hypothetical 2018 Senate bid. Forbes largely clears the field, with Mark Obenshain deciding to run for Attorney General again.

Mark Herring clears the field for Governor after Ralph Northam, who was leaning towards running for Lt. Gov. again, is picked to head the VA. The matchup between Herring and Forbes sets up a classic NoVA vs. Hampton Roads matchup, with Herring regarded as a slight favorite over the conservative Forbes. The campaign tightens to be a tossup as it enters its final months, with Herring focusing madly on base turnout in the suburbs and major cities. Herring runs largely on his socially progressive policies, his connections in Northern Virginia, and on continuing the economic growth under Terry McAuliffe. Forbes runs on a remarkably pragmatic platform, but without a connection to the booming DC-area suburbs, he remains a point or two behind in polling even once the race tightens. The polling is correct, with Herring winning 50-48.

Lieutenant Governor: After Northam leaves to take a Cabinet position, Governor McAuliffe taps former Congressman Tom Perriello as his Lieutenant Governor. Perriello decides to run for a term in his own right in the fall, facing State Senator Steve Martin from the Richmond area. Despite a disciplined, pragmatic campaign by Martin, Perriello easily wins 53-46 thanks to strong support in all the major metro areas and in his old congressional district, where he outperforms all other Democratic nominees.

Attorney General: With Herring leaving the AG post, it sets up a race between 2013 Republican nominee State Sen. Mark Obenshain and State Senator Chap Petersen. Lightning does not strike twice for Democrats, as Obenshain succeeds this time by a similarly narrow margin that he lost by in 2013. R pickup.

VA State House: Democrats pick up one seat in the State House to slash the Republican majority to 61-39, staying in the minority yet again.

Depends on the numbers for the SPD, Greens, Left and AfD, it's hard but barely doable with AfD in the Bundestag though you need a collapse of the SPD vote, presuming Linke and Greens stay in double digits. 18-10-10-5 or 16-12-10-5 are numbers we have to look at. Those might be too implausible, though.

United States elections, 2017

New Jersey

Governor: Christie's approval rating continues its post-reelection decline - he never recovers from Bridgegate even though he was not involved directly, and his popularity is hit further by two more credit downgrades on New Jersey's debt, stubborn unemployment, and further scandals involving his Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno that actually have some teeth. His run for President alienates his constituents further. As such, few major Republican figures in the vein of a Guadagno, Scott Garrett or Tom Kean, Jr. enter the race out of fear that they would lose. The only takers are Jeff Chiesa, Joe Kyrillos and Jon Bramnick. In a tight election race, Chiesa takes the nomination.

The Democratic primary is wild, featuring the following major candidates: Senate President Steve Sweeney, businessman Phil Murphy, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, and former Congressman Rush Holt. Murphy and Sweeney split the centrist vote, while Fulop and Holt split the progressive vote. Fulop, running against the "Jersey machine," wins the primary 27-25-23-21 out of the four major candidates, despite having cozied up to major NJ power brokers to finance his run. Murphy quickly announces that his Super PAC will fully back Fulop and his running mate, Assemblyman John Wisniewski.

With Christie's popularity low and Chiesa struggling as a first-time candidate despite his name recognition, Fulop overcomes his awkward public persona and infighting with Sweeney, who never endorses him, to win the New Jersey governorship 54-40, with a third-party libertarian taking a surprising 6% of the vote. D pickup.

New Jersey Legislature: The Democrats win two seats in the Assembly to jump their majority even higher to 55-25, one of their biggest majorities in history, helped by peeling off Republicans in southern New Jersey with moderate candidates. Murphy's PAC's spending helps drive up their totals. Democrats capture one seat in the New Jersey Senate (District 7) to increase their majority to 25-15, just shy of a 2/3rds super-majority.

What about 20-11-8-5?

Your timeline. ;)

November 2017: The good results for Democrats in the two off-year elections are cited as boding well for Clinton's Democrats after a busy first year. Both parties signal that immigration and energy will likely not be touched until the next year. Northam's VA reform package is approved in both Houses of Congress. A massive snowstorm hits the Midwest and Northeast, slowing down travel and commerce for days. An oil train derails in rural North Dakota, and it takes days to reach it in blizzard conditions, leaving a massive spill out on the prairie.

November 2017 (continued): John Key's National Party is elected to yet another government, attaining a majority with the backing of minor-party Maori, United Future and ACT. Ukraine's government teeters on collapse as harsh winter weather brings with it fresh protests. A cruise ship in Thailand sinks after running aground. Everyone aboard survives.

United States elections, 2017

Municipal

Atlanta Mayor: With Kasim Reed term-limited, Kwanza Hall is the eventual winner of the election to replace him.

Boston Mayor: Marty Walsh is easily reelected to a second term, and the City Councilmen who retire are replaced with significantly more developer-friendly candidates.

New York City: Bill de Blasio wins yet another wide-open Democratic primary, once again with backing from the WFP. He defeats Michael Grimm in the general election. All five borough Presidents are reelected, as are all major downballot offices. The wild and unpredictable races of the 2013 contest never materialize. Several WFP-backed candidates are elected to the City Council to replace retiring members, moving the needle even further left in the city.

Seattle Mayor: After a first term filled with a slew of progressive pet causes (minimum wage, tax hikes, mass transit, developer fees, police reform, etc.), Seattle's Ed Murray is reelected by wide margins in both the top-two and the general, failing to attract a top-tier recruit.

What is the margin on the New York City race?

I'd imagine less than 2013, but probably in the 60-40 range.

December 2017: A slow month, no major legislation passes. One of the best Christmas shopping seasons on record contrasts with a 600-point slump in the Dow to end the month. Oil drops back under $90 a barrel as the situation in Russia calms down, though the rouble is still weak and the economy there has not had positive growth since 2014, signalling a depression. It is an unseasonably dry winter, with minimal snowfall across North America or Europe after a quiet, unremarkable hurricane season. A garbage workers' strike begins in Milwaukee.

December 2017 (continued): Ahn Cheol-soo is elected President of South Korea as an independent, and he appoints Park Won-soon as Prime Minister. He is the youngest man elected President of South Korea, and marks a major shift towards populism in South Korean political discourse.

And now, for Sports: USC quarterback Ricky Town wins the Heisman after a 5,000 yard, 47 touchdown and 5 interception season for the Trojans, beating out Alabama QB Cooper Bateman and Florida QB Will Grier. In the MLS Cup, Orlando City defeats Vancouver Whitecaps in penalty kicks. It is a remarkable run for both teams, with the Lions being the first "wild-card" team to win the Cup after knocking off Columbus and the Supporters' Shield-winning DC United en route to the Cup, and the Whitecaps are the first Canadian side to play for an MLS Cup. In the FIFA Club World Cup, Bayern Munich defeats Seongnam FC to win their third championship.

January 2018: GDP data suggest that the economy grew by 2.2% in Q4 of 2017, the first time since Q3 of 2016 that it grew by more than 1.5%. A massive snowstorm blankets the Northeast. Former Congressman John Dingell passes away - he lies in state in the Capitol Rotunda. Speaker Becerra and former Speaker Boehner both give addresses at his funeral.

January 2018 (continued): In early elections, Serbia's Aleksandar Vucic wins another term as Prime Minister with a reduced majority, partnering with the Socialist Party once again to form an overwhelming majority government. The victory raises concerns in neighboring Croatia and Bosnia. Austria's FPO leads a massive rally attended by close to 50,000 people in central Vienna after the Bundestag fails to pass a harsh immigration restriction bill they had championed. Shinzo Abe steps down as Prime Minister of Japan and is replaced by Sanae Takaichi, the first female Prime Minister of Japan.

And now, for Sports: USC, led by Heisman-winner Ricky Town, is defeated by 11-1 Florida, which missed out on a chance to play for the SEC title by losing to Tennessee early in the season, in the Rose Bowl. 11-1 SEC Champion Alabama defeats Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl to set up an all-SEC championship in Indianapolis. Alabama wins its 17th national championship and fifth in a decade under Nick Saban by defeating Florida in a duel of Heisman runner-ups Cooper Bateman and Will Grier, 34-27, in an instant classic.

2017-18 NFL Playoffs

NFC

Wild Card Round

(3) Seattle Seahawks vs. (6) Los Angeles Rams

The reigning NFC champions travel on the road to Seattle, where they hold the distinction of being the only road team to ever defeat the Seahawks at the C-Link in the playoffs. The luck of the top defense in the league runs out in Seattle, though, as Russell Wilson and the #2 defense snuff out the Rams and win an ugly game 17-9 to advance.

(4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. (5) Detroit Lions

Marcus Mariota's playoff debut does not go well as the Buccaneers are swamped by the 10-6 Lions, who ride former Buc running back Doug Martin to three touchdown runs and two TD passes by Matt Stafford to Eric Ebron to win a blowout 41-7, their first playoff victory since 1991.

Divisional Round

(2) Green Bay Packers vs. (3) Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks travel to Green Bay, where their road ends in a 20-13 loss to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Hasean Clinton-Dix intercepts Wilson's fourth quarter pass at the 5-yard line to prevent a tying score and the Packers advance to the Championship Round.

(1) Philadelphia Eagles vs. (5) Detroit Lions

In another road upset, the Lions knock off Nick Foles and the 14-2 Eagles in a stunning 31-3 blowout, intercepting Foles four times and with Matt Stafford throwing three touchdown passes, two of them to Golden Tate and one to Calvin Johnson.

NFC Championship

(2) Green Bay Packers vs. (5) Detroit Lions

In a NFC North rivalry showdown, the Lions head to Lambeau Field in a snowstorm to battle Aaron Rodgers and the mighty Packers. With the passing games mostly limited in the heavy snowfall and low temperatures, the Lions ride Doug Martin spelled by rookie running back Samaje Perine. Perine scores twice - making him even more hated by Wisconsinites after beating Melvin Gordon's rushing record in 2014 - to spell the Lions to a 17-0, old-school "Snow Bowl" win with four missed field goals combined and the first playoff shutout in Aaron Rodgers' career.

With the win, the Detroit Lions are the 2017 NFC Champions! This is their first-ever Super Bowl performance, spelled by steady running, a vicious defense and the skills of veteran QB Matt Stafford.

AFC

Wild Card Round

(3) Baltimore Ravens vs. (6) Cleveland Browns

In their first playoff appearance since 2002, the Cleveland Browns defeat the favored Ravens 16-14 on a last-second field goal. Johnny Manziel does not have a particularly good game, but the Browns defense shuts down Joe Flacco after the first quarter and grinds out the victory.

(4) Buffalo Bills vs. (5) Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have the misfortune of having to travel to Buffalo in one of the coldest winters in recent memory. Bills star wideout Sammy Watkins catches 14 passes for 300 yards and four touchdowns from rookie QB and fellow Clemson alum Deshaun Watson to beat down the Dolphins 48-16.

Divisional Round

(1) Indianapolis Colts vs. (6) Cleveland Browns

Johnny Manziel explodes for 360 yards passing and 180 yards rushing against the favored Colts, ending their repeat bid by pacing the Browns to a 47-14 blowout win over the hapless Colts, with Andrew Luck throwing three interceptions and with TY Hilton fumbling on a kick return. The Browns advance to their first AFC Championship game since 1987.

(2) San Diego Chargers vs. (4) Buffalo Bills

The Bills miracle season ends in San Diego, where Phillip Rivers' fourth-quarter comeback knocks off Buffalo 24-21, with Rivers throwing a TD to Keenan Allen with 0:17 left on the clock after the Chargers started the fourth quarter down 21-10.

AFC Championship

(2) San Diego Chargers vs. (6) Cleveland Browns

Manziel continues his remarkable season by leading the Browns to a comeback upset of the Chargers on the road, with a 11-yard scramble with 0:09 seconds left down 34-28 to score. Manziel throws for 107 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, but along with running back Isaiah Crowell paces the Browns to a 300 team rushing yard day with one touchdown for himself and two for Crowell.

With the win, the Cleveland Browns are the 2017 AFC Champions! It is the first-ever Super Bowl appearance by the Browns, led by a terrific season from Manziel and the Browns defense, particularly veteran corner Joe Haden who has 14 interceptions on the season including the playoffs.

Super Bowl LII

At Vikings Stadium in Minneapolis, Super Bowl LII pits the Detroit Lions against the Cleveland Browns. Some storylines in the press in the weeks prior to the game:

• Ohio-Michigan: This is a Midwest showdown occurring in the Midwest. These two teams represent the same states as the Michigan-Ohio State rivalry at the college level, one of the biggest feuds in sports. The cities are no more than two and a half hours apart and both teams' fans can easily drive to the Super Bowl in Minnesota.
• The Wild Card Bowl: It is the first Super Bowl to feature two wild card teams, and the first in which neither participant played a single home game during the playoffs.
• Clash of Quarterbacks: Two Texas native QBs face off in this game, with very different styles. The pass-happy Detroit offense is led by the demure, humble Matt Stafford, a veteran who took his lumps on some bad Lions teams and is well-regarded by almost all in the NFL. The more run-heavy Cleveland offense is led by the polarizing Johnny Manziel, regarded by some as a gunslingin' player who makes it look fun and easy and by others as an entitled, showoff-ish celebrity who parties too much. As NBC Sports commentator Peyton Manning phrases it, "I think most of the country is rooting for Detroit tonight."

Other noteworthy items: This is the first time since 1985 that both franchises are playing in their first Super Bowl. Detroit's Jim Caldwell, already the only black head coach to lead two different teams to the playoffs, is the first black head coach to take two different teams to the Super Bowl (2009 Indianapolis being the other) and is only the 7th head coach to take two teams to the Super Bowl. It is exactly sixty years since Detroit won their last championship (1957).

The Game:

The Detroit Lions start off by scoring three straight touchdowns on their first three drives, two of which are caught by Calvin Johnson, one of which is abetted by a Johnny Manziel interception thrown to Darius Slay. Only on the last drive of the second quarter do the Browns get on the board with a field goal. 21-3 Detroit advantage at the half.

On the first drive of the second half, Manziel marches the Browns down the field and scores on a six-yard run to tie the game 21-10. On the very next offensive play, Calvin Johnson catches a short Matt Stafford pass, evades Joe Haden and takes it 77 yards for a touchdown. On the next drive, Manziel fumbles and the ball is recovered by Ziggy Ansah. Samaje Perine scores two plays later on a 26-yard TD run.

Down 35-10, the Browns go four-and-out midway through the third quarter and Detroit mostly runs out the clock from then on, with no more scoring plays in the entire game. Calvin Johnson is named Super Bowl MVP with 161 receiving yards on 10 catches and three touchdowns, and Detroit takes home its first-ever Super Bowl championship.

February 2018: A study is released suggesting Medicare will remain solvent until 2027, with Social Security solvent until 2043. Republicans cite the report as a reason to start reforming both programs now, with means testing being touted by Thune and Barrasso as a compromise position that could earn some Democratic support. Neither the energy nor immigration plans have come up for a vote yet, leading Sandoval to public air his frustrations, saying on "Meet the Press" that, "I'm starting to wonder if they (the Democrats) actually want a bill to pass and if they're actually interested in partnering on us with it." A spokesperson for the Bush family announces that George H.W. Bush has been hospitalized in Houston. Vermont becomes the first state to pass a law mandating a minimum of four weeks vacation for all full-time salaried employees and passing stricter overtime requirements.

February 2018 (continued): A 9.2 earthquake strikes Chile, killing 12,000 people and sending the country into pandemonium a few weeks before Michelle Bachelet's successor, Minister of Defense Rodrigo Hinzpeter, is inaugurated. The Greek coalition collapses when PASOK balks at a very left-wing platform proposed by Syriza for the new year, triggering early elections and sending European markets down 7%. Fillon's cabinet introduces a budget aimed more at reforming regulatory bodies and altering the business climate in France rather than raising taxes or cutting spending - it is criticized by Sarkozy, now a TV pundit and personality, as "small-time." A tentative peace deal is signed in Libya, brokered by Egypt and South Africa, though many suspect it will collapse in time.

2018 Winter Olympics

The 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang go well, after the massive cost overruns at Sochi. Shaun White competes in his last-ever Olympiad, Lindsey Vonn makes a triumphant return to the ski slopes, and Canada wins its third straight Gold Medal in men's ice hockey and fourth since 2002, defeating Russia in the final. Sweden wins women's ice hockey over the USA. There are no North Korea-related security episodes during the games, and Park Geun-hye is present in one of her last activities as President.

March 2018: The Sandoval-Schumer immigration plan is put to a final vote on the Senate floor, with amendments regarding a stricter E-Verify regime, H-1 visas and an automated visa-tracking system put into the final version. All 52 Democrats vote in favor, and the following Republicans vote in favor of it too:

Brian Sandoval (R-NV)
Dean Heller (R-NV)
Orrin Hatch (R-UT)
Josh Romney (R-UT)
Jeff Flake (R-AZ)
Steve Daines (R-MT)
John Hoeven (R-ND)
John Thune (R-SD)
Mike Rounds (R-SD)
James Lankford (R-OK)
Rand Paul (R-KY)
Bob Corker (R-TN)
Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
David Perdue (R-GA)
Lindsey Graham (R-SC)

With 15 Republicans voting on the final package, it clears the threatened filibuster by Ted Cruz and Jeff Sessions to pass 67-30, with three Republicans abstaining to vote. As the Immigration Reform and Modernization Act of 2018 (IRMA) heads to the House, it is already touted as Hillary's first great achievement. The news cycle quickly shifts, however, when news arrives that the 41st President, George H.W. Bush, has passed away at 93, two and a half months shy of 94. He dies having reached the oldest age of any living President, beating out Reagan and Ford by several months.

March 2018 (continued): Vladimir Putin is reelected President of Russia, winning 52% of the vote against a divided opposition. It is his lowest total percentage in history, lower than in 2000 when the Russian opposition wasn't as toothless. Revised GDP figures suggest that Germany's economic contraction in Q4 2017 were worse than expected, contracting 0.5 instead of 0.1. Early projections also indicate that Germany, and much of the Eurozone at large, is still contracting in Q1, indicating a fresh recession. The first six months of Sarkozy's television program have been a ratings success, where he comments on the news of the day with bombast and criticizes mostly his fellow UMP members. His rivalry with President Fillon is laid bare when the President angrily says in an interview, "This new job is perfect for Nicolas. He gets to be on TV and do nothing but criticize and demagogue against those with actual responsibilities." Pakistani authorities confirm that they have killed several senior al-Qaeda and Taliban figures in Waziristan. Prime Minister Takaichi releases a new, stimulatory budget to try to juice Japan's economy once again.

The Funeral of George H.W. Bush

Besides all living former Presidents, other notable attendees are:

Former British Prime Minister John Major
Former Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney
Former First Lady Nancy Reagan
Former Vice President Dick Cheney
Former Vice President Dan Quayle
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush
Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush
Former Chief of Staff John Sununu

Some notable quotes from eulogizers:

George W. Bush: "I'm going to miss my father's wit, his energy, his kindness, his compassion, and his graciousness. Most of all, though, I'm going to miss having this incredible, loving man in my life. We're going to miss you, Dad."

Bill Clinton: "George Bush could have boasted and gloated as the Soviet empire crumbled, like many would have done, but George Bush was far too humble and had far too much integrity to do such a thing... In the quarter-century since President Bush and I faced each other in a national election, we formed a friendship. Today, America has lost a President. The Bush family has lost a father and grandfather. The world has lost a very kind man. And I, like many others, have lost a very good and generous friend."

Dan Quayle: "There was no greater honor in my life than being asked by George Herbert Walker Bush to be his Vice President. It was an honor not because of the office I held, but because of the man I had the privilege of becoming close to."

Barack Obama: "At a crucial time in our nation's history, George Bush guided us through the end of the half-century Cold War and the dawning of, as he put it, a 'new world order.' George Bush set an example for generations of Americans to come of humility, honor and integrity, and his Presidency will be remembered for years to come as a successful and exemplary one."

April 2018: Just as the month begins, Illinois partially defaults on its public debt after it is unable for the first time to pay its full pension obligations and it suffers a severe credit downgrade. US indexes are down nearly 10% in two weeks and the Fed considers maintaining a 0.25 benchmark interest rate over three years instead of just another two. Republicans seize on the event as a reason to point to the 10-year debt ceiling hike enacted a year earlier by the Democratic Congress and many Democrats balk at budget provisions being debated in the two houses of Congress with the media's focus landing on public debt. The event causes Bruce Rauner's approvals to drop even lower, and in a massive upset, Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart defeats Lisa Madigan in the Democratic primary for Governor.

Meanwhile, a late-season snowstorm blankets the Eastern Seaboard. The long-debated energy bill has still not been passed, largely over environmentalist objections. Clinton signs IRMA into law. Improving economic data indicates continued 2% growth in the US while the Eurozone slides into another recession, albeit a mild one.

April 2018 (continued): Angela Merkel signals that she will retire in favor of Ursula von der Leyen by the end of the year, causing markets in the Eurozone to decline further. A grand coalition of New Democracy, PASOK and ANEL is formed after fresh Greek elections, signalling much-needed stability to many in the global economy after a chaotic two years of Syriza governance. Venezuelan anti-chavista leader Leopoldo Lopez is assassinated in Caracas by a team of gunmen, eliminating a mainstream politician and worsening the violence. Nova Scotia holds polls, and the results are as follows:

Liberals - 36 seats
Conservatives - 13 seats
New Democrats - 2 seats

And now, for Sports: In San Antonio for the Final Four, Illinois, led by electric freshmen Omar Little, Tony Grant and Jamal Jackson, defeat Marquette in the semifinals while Kentucky defeats North Carolina in the other semi. Little's Illini win their first-ever national championship when they knock off the Wildcats 57-52 in a thriller of a game.

I have a question. What happened to Tom Mcclintock ? He is from the 4th congressinol district of California. Did he get defeated in 2016 ?

No Democrat won in any district with a PVI greater than R+5 or R+6, so he's still in Congress.

May 2018: Congress passes a law updating the Internet so that it is classified as a utility and regulated as such, and later in the month passes the Hoeven energy bill, with it gaining 70 votes in the Senate after a compromise included to pacify environmentalists is passed. However, many Democrats still do not vote in favor after pressure by Steyer's Super PACs rally support against it.

Fallout from the Illinois default continues as Rauner orders an immediate government shutdown and signs an executive order freezing pay raises, cutting state employee pay in half and slashing pension payments by one third. The legislature passes laws forbidding him from doing so and the State Supreme Court will surely strike the measure down, but Rauner vetoes the laws only to have them overturned. The optics of a wealthy millionaire slashing pay for state employees does not go over well, despite Rauner himself having only collected a $1 annual salary since 2015, and there are massive protests in Springfield and Chicago against "Emperor Bruce." Some national Democrats privately debate whether Illinois will need, and whether it deserves, a bailout after years of failing to get its fiscal house in order.

May 2018 (continued): Two deaths within three days of each other in the world of Francophone leadership - former Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chrétien dies at 84, and Jacques Chirac dies three days later at 85. Four US soldiers are killed execution-style by guerillas in Venezuela, with the murder broadcast live on YouTube for the world to see, increasing pressure on NATO to step up their commitment to the peacekeeping mission. An Emirates flight from Dubai to Berlin is shot down by IS fighters while flying over Iraq, killing all 370 passengers aboard. Miro Cerar's government is returned in Slovenian elections. Mariano Rajoy signals his intention to call snap elections prior to the end of the year if the new Spanish Constitution is passed by both houses in the next six months.

UEFA Champions League 2017-18

Semifinals

PSG vs. Bayern Munich

In the first leg, played in Paris, PSG wins after Cavani scores on a penalty in the 77th minute. The second leg is played in Munich, where Thomas Muller scores twice for the defending champions in the first twenty minutes only to see the typically-disciplined German club collapse in the second half - Cavani scores in the 52nd, David Luiz in the 60th, and Paul Pogba in the 80th to take the lead. David Alaba scores by heading in Shaqiri's corner kick in the 89th minute, but in stoppage time Shaqiri fails to score when his strike on a cross from Muller goes off of the crossbar and with the draw, PSG advances (as it would have even with a loss thanks to away goals).

Chelsea vs. Real Madrid

A showdown of superstars pits Lionel Messi and Eden Hazard of Chelsea FC against James Rodriguez and Jesé. The first leg, at Bernabeu, winds up with a 1-1 draw, with Messi and Karim Benzema both scoring in the second half. At Stamford Bridge a few weeks later, Chelsea wins 1-0 on a 71' Hazard kick on a cross from Messi. The win catapults Chelsea, which also recently won both the FA Cup and the EPL, into position to take home its first-ever treble.

Final

Chelsea faces PSG at Estadio della Roma. The game starts with a score by Messi in the 10th, but it is evened out by Pogba scoring in the 27th. The game remains a draw for the rest of the match and goes into extra time. In the 111th minute, David Luiz scores on a wide cross from Cavani to take the lead and PSG denies Chelsea a second European Cup and win their first-ever European championship. Cavani is named both Man of the Match and Player of the Tournament.

June 2018: The stock market is back down to 16,000 as the turmoil continues to spread in Illinois, with mass selloffs in US bond markets of non-Triple A municipal and state debt. Rauner openly debates declaring the state bankrupt. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx announces his resignation after five years on the job. A cruise ship leaving Miami runs aground in Haiti and American forces have to airlift the passengers out after Haitian criminal gangs surround it and threaten to hold it for ransom. Clinton's approval rating dips below 50% for the first time as the Illinois crisis continues to sour voters on her Presidency. Former Vice President Walter Mondale dies at 90 in Minnesota. A massive wildfire burns through much of Wyoming and northern Colorado, threatening thousands of homes from Cheyenne to Fort Collins. It is the hottest June on record.

June 2018 (continued): Tunisia's parliamentary election results in a second consecutive victory for secular parties. Japan's debt is downgraded by Moody's. A border incident between India and Pakistan triggers recriminatory tensions and Sharif and Modi meet at a summit in Karachi to smooth relations. George Osborne commits a major gaffe when he is caught on tape questioning Nigel Farage's sexuality. The US combat presence in Venezuela is now close to 50,000.

And now, for Sports: The Golden State Warriors, led by MVP Stephen Curry, defeat defending champion Washington Wizards in the NBA Finals in six games, with Curry named Finals MVP as well. In the Stanley Cup Finals, the Toronto Maple Leafs defeat the Los Angeles Kings in five games to win the Leafs' first championship since 1967, ending hockey's longest championship drought. Sidney Crosby wins the Hart Trophy.

In world soccer news, Seattle Sounders FC becomes the first American team since 2002 to win the CONCACAF Champions League, defeating Pachuca in the final, AS Roma wins Serie A for the first time since 2001, PSG wins a third consecutive Ligue 1 title to go with their European Cup and semifinalist spot in the Coupe de France, Real Madrid takes La Liga for the fourth straight time (nearly matching their five straight La Liga championships from the 1960s), Chelsea wins both the FA Cup and the EPL, and Bayern Munich wins their sixth straight Bundesliga championship.

2018 FIFA World Cup

Group A

Russia (host)
Italy
Iran
Panama

The opening match of the tournament pits Russia in front of a boisterous sellout crowd in St. Petersburg against Iran, complete with a rousing rendition of the Russian national anthem in which the entire crowd stands to its feet, with Vladimir Putin in attendance. In the match itself, Russia holds Iran scoreless until the 47th minute, when Sardar Azmoun scores. Scrambling to avoid an opening game loss on home soil, Russia scores once in stoppage time on a Kokorin header on a cross from Shatov to effect a draw.

In the next game, Italy faces Panama, appearing in its first-ever World Cup final. Panama stuns the world by scoring first, with talented young striker Darwin Pinzon sends a ball off the crossbar and past Salvatore Sirigu for the country's first ever World Cup goal. The elation for Panama does not last long, as Ciro Immobile evens the score at 55' and Alessandro Florenzi scores on a cross from Balotelli at 80' to put Italy ahead permanently.

The next match sees Panama face Russia. After Shatov scores early for the hosts, Panama holds them for sixty minutes until Pinzon works a little more of his magic and hits the ball in at 85' to effect Russia's second straight draw and give Panama its first point of the tournament. Later that day, Italy clubs Iran 4-0, with Immobile scoring twice, and Balotelli and Insigne each adding another goal. With 6 points already guaranteed, Italy has clinched its first trip to the knockout stage since 2006, when they won the World Cup. Immobile's emergence for Italy is becoming the story of the tournament as he now has three goals in Russia.

On the final group match day, Russia faces Italy needing a win to be assured of not becoming only the second host to not leave the group stage. Italy beats Russia 3-1, with Balotelli scoring on a penalty at 30', Ricardo Improta at 54' and Immobile adding his fourth goal of the tournament at 77'. Shatov scores again for Russia at 60', but they never have more luck than that. Russia, with only two points, now needs Panama and Iran to draw in order to advance. Panama breaks Russia's collective heart, however, when it defeats Iran 1-0 with a goal at 71' by Jairo Jiménez. In its first-ever World Cup appearance, Panama is propelled into the second round with 4 points.

The final standings of Group A:

Italy 9
Panama 4
Russia 2
Iran 1

Goalscorers:

Immobile (Italy) 4
Balotelli (Italy) 2
Pinzon (Panama) 2
Shatov (Russia) 2
Florenzi (Italy) 1
Insigne (Italy) 1
Improta (Italy) 1
Jimenez (Panama) 1
Kokorin (Russia) 1
Azmoun (Iran) 1

Group B

Argentina
England
USA
Nigeria

The first game pits Argentina and Nigeria against one another. To the surprise of nobody, the Albiceleste win going away, with Messi scoring once and Higuain once to win 2-0. The other game is one of the premier matches of the tournament, with England and USA facing one another once again. In one of the tournament's first huge upsets, USA defeats England 1-0 with Gedion Zelalem scoring at 61' and Sean Johnson keeping 12 England shots out of goal, leading Johnson to be named Man of the Match.

The next match sees USA face Argentina and England face Nigeria. USA loses to Argentina 1-0, with Aguero scoring for the Albiceleste at 45+2'. However, their multiple opportunities and sound defense are heralded as a good sign against a side as talented as Argentina's. England, however, faces another disaster as they draw Nigeria 1-1. Welbeck scores at 55' but at 88' Ahmed Musa scores for Nigeria to give them a point.

The last day gives England a chance to advance with a win and a USA loss. Their dreams of knockout rounds end prematurely when USA beats Nigeria 3-1, with Musa opening scoring for the Green Eagles at 11' but John Brooks scoring at 20' and Jordan Morris putting them ahead permanently at 61' and with Rubio Rubin scoring at 85' for extra measure. England flames out against Argentina anyways, losing 3-0 as Messi, Aguero, and Higuain all score once.

Final Standings:

Argentina 9
USA 6
England 1
Nigeria 1

Goalscorers:

Messi (Argentina) 2
Higuian (Argentina) 2
Aguero (Argentina) 2
Musa (Nigeria) 2
Brooks (USA) 1
Morris (USA) 1
Rubin (USA) 1
Zelalem (USA) 1
Welbeck (England) 1

2018 FIFA World Cup

Group C

Germany
Chile
Cameroon
Canada

The first game pits Germany against Cameroon. Die Mannschaft, entering as favorites to win a second consecutive World Cup and fifth overall, easily dispatch the African side, winning 3-0 with Thomas Müller (25'), Mario Götze (50') and Mesut Ozil (88') all scoring. Meanwhile, Chile faces Canada, which is appearing in its first World Cup since 1986. Predictably, Chile defeats Canada 3-0, with Alexis Sanchez scoring the first hat trick of the World Cup.

Canada next faces Germany. In an absolute drubbing, Germany defeats Canada 6-0, the largest margin of victory to be attained in the entire tournament. Müller scores a hat trick, tying him with fellow German great Gerd Müller at 14 career WC goals and making Canada the first team to ever allow two hat tricks to two different teams in the same World Cup, while Götze scores another two and Lars Bender adds the last goal of the game. Chile faces Cameroon, winning 1-0 on a Angelo Henríquez penalty at 78'.

Chile and Germany face off for the top spot in the group. Chile pulls ahead initially with a Sanchez score at 21', but Müller equalizes at 57' (and has now tied Ronaldo for second-most goals in World Cup history and becomes the first man to score five goals in three World Cups) and Kroos puts Germany ahead permanently at 85' to win the group with 9 points. Canada loses to Cameroon 2-0 after Aboubakar scores twice in six minutes (31' and 37') to give Cameroon their first goals of the tournament and allows them to leave with 3 points.

Final Standings:

Germany 9
Chile 6
Cameroon 3
Canada 0

Goalscorers:

Müller (Germany) 5
Sanchez (Chile) 4
Götze (Germany) 3
Aboubakar (Cameroon) 2
Bender (Germany) 1
Ozil (Germany) 1
Kroos (Germany) 1
Henríquez (Chile) 1

2018 FIFA World Cup

Group D

Colombia
France
Netherlands
Ghana

The first game pits Colombia against France, one of the favorites entering the tournament. In a shocking upset, Colombia defeats France 1-0, with Falcao scoring on Les Bleus in the 80th minute. Meanwhile, the Netherlands drubs Ghana 3-0, with a score by Strootman (11'), de Jong (65') and Robben, who subs in to score late at 89'.

The next matches pit France and Netherlands against one another. The game ends in a scoreless 1-1 draw. Strootman scores again for Netherlands and Pogba scores for France, but they fail to earn more than one point, putting France dangerously behind the pole. Colombia, meanwhile, defeats Ghana 3-1, with James Rodriguez scoring twice (55', 61') and Falcao once (70') to blow out the talented African side, which only has Christian Atsu score at 77'.

The final matchday finds France needing a win and a Netherlands loss to Colombia to have a chance to advance on goal differentials. Pogba (20') and Benzema (56') both score to power France to a 2-1 win (Ghana scores at the 31st minute thanks to Jordan Ayew to equalize), but Netherlands (de Jong 44') and Colombia (Rodriguez 60') draw 1-1 to send both teams to the knockout rounds on points.

Final Standings:

Colombia 7
Netherlands 5
France 4
Ghana 0

Goalscorers:

James Rodriguez (Colombia) 3
Radamel Falcao (Colombia) 2
Kevin Strootman (Netherlands) 2
Siem de Jong (Netherlands) 2
Paul Pogba (France) 2
Arjen Robben (Netherlands) 1
Karim Benzema (France) 1
Jordan Ayew (Ghana) 1
Christian Atsu (Ghana) 1

King Sweden, I've only read the first page so far, and obviously none of this has yet happened, but your analysis seems plausible and you are likely to be far more accurate than the so-called 'psychics' Of course, in their 'defense', 'psychics' often intentionally make outrageous predictions because if one prediction they make actually comes true, they are set for life.

A couple responses: a 26.5% corporate income tax rate would still be too high. This isn't the thread to discuss this but I've argued many times that corporate income taxes should be eliminated while dividend taxes should be significantly increased.  That way, an incentive for corporations to reinvest is created: any money a corporation reinvests in the business isn't taxed, while money paid out is highly taxed. While I'm sure this is a frequent topic of discussion in economics journals, I've noticed it also getting more play in the 'popular press'.  I believe I read four articles last year from journalists on both the left and right who argued for the elimination of corporate income taxes.  I say 'corporate income taxes' because businesses should still pay property taxes as they directly receive the benefits from municipal services.

On the Canadian election.  I have to disagree with you on a couple points: there is simply no way the Green Party could win 5 seats.  Living in B.C I know the party only has support significant enough to win seats on Southern Vancouver Island and there are only 4 seats there.  It's also highly unlikely they would win them all, if any more.  The best I could see them doing is to also win the Victoria riding (and apparently not a single person has even stepped forward to seek the nomination for them in that riding yet, though that could be because many Green Party members were focused on the recent municipal elections where they gained 3 mayors chairs in Southern Vancouver Island). The additional seat the party has gained since the election when an M.P crossed from the NDP is in a resource dependent community in Northern Ontario and the pundits and pollsters I've read predict he won't even get 10% of the vote in the next election.

Also, I can't see the NDP being shut out in the Atlantic.  While the party itself may have lost a lot of support, NDP M.Ps Megan Leslie and Peter Stoffer in Nova Scotia and Yvon Godin in New Brunswick are all extremely personally popular in their own ridings and should all be easily reelected.

Regarding the U.K election.  Labour may win a minority and the SNP may prop it up, but your use of 'coalition' is the wrong word.  A coalition government means SNP would get members in the cabinet and their is no way the British public at large, or Labour supporters and probably not even SNP supporters would accept that.  I'm also not yet convinced that Labour will lose all that many seats they hold in Scotland.  While the polls for them presently look bad, I'd never discount the power of incumbency.

Thanks for reading, Adam! I appreciate your contributions. I'll admit to not knowing as much about BC Greens as I'd like, so those are probably NDP seats if the #s aren't quite there yet. As for the Labour situation in the UK, I didn't intend for a "coalition" i.e. the Tory-Lib Dem situation existing right now, but more of a "confidence pact" in which the SNP vows to prop up, in your words, a Labour government in return for certain concessions which if breached would allow for an immediate no-confidence vote (hence the early elections that bring a George Osborne-led Tory government back to power).

Where in BC do you live? I've spent a lot of time in Vancouver and Kelowna.

I live in Richmond B.C which is directly south of Vancouver.  If you've been to B.C and out of B.C, you obviously know it because that's where the airport (YVR) is.  Richmond is also the 4th biggest city in B.C by population (and probably second by geography in the Lower Mainland, and for all I know all of B.C after Surrey).  Where the people have lived in Richmond though has been much more compact but we're seeing a lot of growth recently in East Richmond, especially the area near New Westminster.  

I told a friend of mine who was looking at buying a house to look at East Richmond assuming the area must be pretty cheap to live in due to the lack of ammenities and he told me that houses there were already going for over $1 million (Canadian).  I don't know if the business services have been expanded there since, but it is (or was) a good place to open a store or a restaurant.

I've never been to Kelowna, but my brother used to live in Penticton which is also in the Okanagan.  Apparently a lot of marijuana is grown there :).  One of the few things I know about Kelowna is that the late 1980s band The Grapes of Wrath wrote a song about it called "Backward Town."

Thanks for reading, Adam! I appreciate your contributions. I'll admit to not knowing as much about BC Greens as I'd like, so those are probably NDP seats if the #s aren't quite there yet. As for the Labour situation in the UK, I didn't intend for a "coalition" i.e. the Tory-Lib Dem situation existing right now, but more of a "confidence pact" in which the SNP vows to prop up, in your words, a Labour government in return for certain concessions which if breached would allow for an immediate no-confidence vote (hence the early elections that bring a George Osborne-led Tory government back to power).
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Regarding Southern Vancouver Island, based on the new riding map, the Conservatives actually would have won 2 of the seats the NDP now hold.  Who wins those ridings in the next election depends on who the Liberals and Greens take their new votes from, given that they will likely both increase their support.

Regarding the U.K.  We recently had Canadian columnist Michael Van den Tandt predict that the NDP would prop up the Conservatives rather than the Liberals because the NDP are more afraid of the Liberals taking support from them in a minority situation, holding a snap election and getting back to a majority. While it would be difficult for the NDP to explain to their supporters, unless they extract major concessions from the Conservatives, I could see a similar situation in the U.K.  The SNP may not want Labour in power as a popular Labour government would likely win back a lot of seats from the SNP.  So, it would also be incredibly difficult for the SNP to explain to their supporters but I could see them prop up the Conservatives.  Most likely though in the U.K, they would probably withhold support for any party and vote for or against legislation for the party with the most seats, while supporting it on confidence bills.

2018 FIFA World Cup

Group E

Croatia
South Korea
Sweden
Tunisia

Group play begins with Croatia and South Korea facing off in Kazan. The heavily-favored Croatians are upset by Korea Republic, which atone for their 2014 WC flameout with a 1-0 win after Son Heung-min scores at 67'. Croatia fails to equalize on four opportunities inside the box in the last twenty minutes. Sweden, meanwhile, drubs Tunisia 3-0, with scores by Valmir Berisha (15'), Toivonen (55') and Emil Forsberg (62').

The next game has Croatia face off against Tunisia, and Croatia wins 2-1 with scores by Milan Badelj (55') and Luka Modric (70') atone for an own-goal by Tin Jedvaj early in the game. Sweden and South Korea draw 1-1 later that day, with Forsberg scoring at 40' and Koo Ja-cheol equalizing at 84'.

Facing Sweden, Croatia needs a win to advance. However, they are stymied by the resurgent Swedes, who win 2-1 with Berisha scoring at 20' and Simon Gustafson scoring at 71' after Badelj equalizes at 60'. Croatia's last chance to advance evaporates when Korea Republic draws Tunisia 1-1, with Son scoring for the Red Devils (44') and Fakhreddine Ben Youssef equalizes on an incredible header at 61'. With 5 points to Croatia's 4, Korea Republic advances along with group winner Sweden.

Final Standings:

Sweden 7
Korea Republic 5
Croatia 4
Tunisia 1

Goalscorers:

Berisha (Sweden) 2
Forsberg (Sweden) 2
Son (Korea Republic) 2
Badelj (Croatia) 2
Gustafson (Sweden) 1
Toivonen (Sweden) 1
Koo (Korea Republic) 1
Modric (Croatia) 1
Ben Yousseff (Tunisia) 1

Group F

Australia
Belgium
Brazil
Slovakia

Group favorites Brazil start off by facing Belgium in a match of semi-titans, and Brazil defeats Belgium 2-1, with Belgium starting the game off with an early score at 9' by Eden Hazard only to see David Luiz (27') and Neymar (70') put the game away for the Selecao, and a penalty shot by Lukaku late in the game is blocked by Brazil to prevent an equalizer for the draw. Later in the day, Slovakia faces Australia, and needing a win, the Slovaks draw the Socceroos 1-1, with Juraj Kucka scoring at 56' for Slovakia and Australia's Robbie Kruse equalizing at 80'.

Brazil next faces Slovakia, and they win 1-0 on a late Neymar score after a surprisingly gritty performance by Slovakia for most of the game. Belgium blitzes Australia 3-1, with the early goal by Matthew Leckie not enough to prevent scores by De Bruyne (30'), Hazard (52') and Januzaj (76') for Belgium.

The final matches pits Brazil, having already clinched one of the top two spots, facing off against Australia. The Australians actually lead for most of the game after Kruse scores at 20', but Fred scores at 67' to equalize and Neymar strikes on a cross from Oscar at 80' for the go ahead. Oscar scores a goal of his own at 88' to finalize the 3-1 defeat. Slovakia and Belgium face off with Slovakia needing a win to advance - instead, they draw 1-1, with Hazard scoring first and Kucka scores at 74', but Kucka's attempt at 90+2' is masterfully deflected by Thibaut Courtois and Belgium advances with 4 points to Slovakia's 2.

Final Standings:

Brazil 9
Belgium 4
Slovakia 2
Australia 1

Goalscorers:

Neymar (Brazil) 3
Hazard (Belgium) 3
Kruse (Australia) 2
Kucka (Slovakia) 2
Fred (Brazil) 1
Luiz (Brazil) 1
Oscar (Brazil) 1
De Bruyne (Belgium) 1
Januzaj (Belgium) 1
Leckie (Australia) 1

2018 FIFA World Cup

Group G

Algeria
Poland
Spain
Uruguay

The first matchup is between Spain and Uruguay, the two group favorites. Spain defeats Uruguay 1-0, with Paco Alcácer scoring at 71'. Poland defeats Algeria by an identical 1-0 score, with Robert Lewandowski scoring at 37' for the game's only goal.

The next game pits Spain and Poland against one another, and in a shocking result Poland draws mighty Spain 1-1, with Jesé scoring at 44' and Lewandowski hitting the equalizer at 78'. Two years after Poland's semifinal run at Euro 2016, it is one of the biggest signs that Poland is finally arriving as a mature footballing nation. Later that same day, Uruguay drubs Algeria 5-1, with young Diego Fagundez scoring a hat trick (11', 51', 89'), Calvani scoring at 45+3', and Luis Suarez scoring at 70'.

Spain defeats Algeria 1-0, another sign that things might be shaky for the mighty Spaniards, with Pedro scoring at 59' to avoid what would have been a humiliating draw. Uruguay, meanwhile, defeats Poland 1-0 thanks to a score by Abel Hernandez to put Uruguay into the knockout round.

Final Standings:

Spain 7
Uruguay 6
Poland 4
Algeria 0

Goalscorers:

Fagundez (Uruguay) 3
Lewandowksi (Poland) 2
Pedro (Spain) 1
Jesé (Spain) 1
Alcácer (Spain) 1
Suarez (Uruguay) 1
Calvani (Uruguay) 1
Hernandez (Uruguay) 1
Feghouli (Algeria) 1

2018 FIFA World Cup

Group H

Austria
Japan
Mexico
Portugal

The first fixture pits Austria against Portugal, and in yet another major group stage upset Austria defeats group favorite Portugal 1-0 behind a score at 62' by David Alaba. A few hours later, Mexico draws Japan 0-0.

The next fixture for Portugal ends equally badly, with Mexico scoring twice behind Javier Hernandez to win 2-0 over the reeling Portuguese, and it gets worse when aging captain Cristiano Ronaldo leaves the game with an apparent ACL tear, marking his final appearance in a major international tournament. Austria continues its magical run by drawing Japan 1-1, with Alaba scoring again at 22' and Japan's Kagawa scoring at 70' to effect the draw.

In the last matchday, Austria defeats Mexico, 3-2, with Alaba scoring twice along with a late strike by Axel Witsel and Giovani and Hernandez each scoring once. Portugal draws Japan 1-1 with a score by Kagawa putting the Japanese up and Estrela scoring late for Portugal to equalize. Austria and Mexico both advance.

Final Standings:

Austria 7
Mexico 4
Japan 3
Portugal 1

Goalscorers:

Alaba (Austria) 4
Hernandez (Mexico) 3
Kagawa (Japan) 2
Giovani (Mexico) 1
Witsel (Austria) 1
Estrela (Portugal) 1

2018 FIFA World Cup

Round of 16

Italy vs. USA

Ciro Immobile continues his magic and scores the game's first point at 17'. However, USA equalizes late on a Julian Green score at 77' to send the game into a scoreless extra time, setting up the first penalty kicks of the tournament.

Italy:

Balotelli GOOD
Immobile GOOD
Florenzi GOOD
Improta GOOD
Insigne NO GOOD

USA:

Green GOOD
Altidore GOOD
Zelalem GOOD
Yedlin GOOD
Morris GOOD

With Jordan Morris' kick sailing past Italian goaltender Salvatore Sirigu after Sean Johnson deflected Insigne's kick moments earlier, the United States earns its first-ever win over Italy at the World Cup level and marks one of the biggest World Cup wins in American history, bigger than the upset over England in 1950. The USA is on to the quarterfinals for the first time since 2002 after two straight round of 16 exits.

Germany vs. Netherlands

The Germans come out of the gate strong, with Götze scoring the game's only goal at 5'. Der Stegen blocks 14 shots on goal to be named Man of the Match as Germany advances to the quarters for the 17th straight time after a 1-0 win.

Sweden vs. Belgium

After an early Valmir Berisha score, Belgium striker Eden Hazard scores at 80' to equalize and prevent what would be a humiliating defeat to Sweden. The game goes into a scoreless extra minutes and then heads to penalty shots.

Sweden:

Berisha GOOD
Forsberg NO GOOD
Toivonen NO GOOD
Gustafson GOOD

Belgium:

Lukaku GOOD
De Bruyne GOOD
Januzaj GOOD
Hazard GOOD

With Hazard's converted penalty shot, Belgium wins the shootout 4-2 and advances to their second straight quarterfinal.

Spain vs. Mexico

Javier Hernandez scores first for El Tri at 59', but just when it looks like Mexico is going to escape with a 1-0 win over Pedro scores for Spain at 89'. Extra time goes scoreless until Giovani puts Mexico ahead at 119' on a cross from Escoboza. Goaltender Memo is the man of the match after a 20-save game, with seven of them in extra time. Mexico advances to its first quarterfinal since 1986.

Argentina vs. Panama

The miracle run for the Canal Boys ends against Argentina in Sochi, where Messi and Aguero each score once to defeat Panama 2-0 in regular time.

Colombia vs. Chile

In a rematch of the 2015 Copa America final, Colombia faces Chile in Kazan. David Ospina blocks an early Alexis Sanchez penalty kick and the game is at 0-0 for most of the match until James Rodriguez catches a long kick across the field from Jeison Murillo and bicycle kicks it into goal at 75'. It is the only goal of the match and powers Colombia into their second straight quarterfinal.

Brazil vs. South Korea

The Red Devils find themselves very overmatched against the Selecao as Neymar (47', 56'), Oscar (34') and Luiz Adriano (82') all score in a 4-0 rout over Korea Republic. It is the biggest margin of victory in the Round of 16 and starts talk of Brazil potentially winning their second World Cup on European soil after they had been regarded as a second-tier contender for much of the early tournament. Korea fans riot in Seoul after the second-half meltdown.

Austria vs. Uruguay

Austria's breakthrough World Cup tournament ends at the hands of Uruguay. Fagundez scores at 27' to put Uruguay up 1-0 and Calvani adds a goal at 73' to give Uruguay the match 2-0.

King Sweeden has become 538

2018 FIFA World Cup

Quarterfinals

Germany vs. USA

In Kazan, Germany's Thomas Müller continues his assault on the record books as his goal at 13' ties him with fellow German Miroslav Klose for most World Cup goals at 16. USA equalizes thanks to Julian Green scoring at 27' on a cross from Brek Shea, and USA actually pulls ahead with a header from Mix Diskerud on a cross from DeAndre Yedlin at 46'. Germany does not falter, however, and scores at 70' with Toni Kroos to equalize. The game heads to extra time, and the exhausted American side, in their second straight extra time game, fail to prevent sub Julian Draxler from scoring at 112' to put Germany ahead 3-2. A visibly gasping Rubio Rubin tries to head in a corner kick from Jozy Altidore at 119', but Ter Stegen deflects it and Müller boots it downfield to preserve the win and send Germany to their fifth straight semifinal, a modern record, and ends one of the most successful USA runs in World Cup history.

Belgium vs. Mexico

The game is 0-0 for its entirety, including extra time with two exhausted sides unable to get much done against one another. Belgium heads to its second consecutive penalty shot session, where the result is as follows:

Belgium:

Lukaku GOOD
De Bruyne NO GOOD
Januzaj GOOD
Kompany NO GOOD
Hazard GOOD
Witsel GOOD
Origi GOOD

Mexico:

Hernandez GOOD
Giovani GOOD
Vela NO GOOD
Herrera GOOD
Gonzalez NO GOOD
Dos Santos GOOD
Corona NO GOOD

When Jesus Manuel Corona's penalty shot is deflected by Belgian netminder Thibaut Courtois, the game ends in sudden death and Belgium advances to their first semifinal since 1986.

Argentina vs. Colombia

The game is deadlocked at 0-0 for most of the match until a breakthrough at 60' by Falcao, who scores on a cross from Rodriguez. Ospina deflects two attempted Messi scores to hang on to the 1-0 lead, powering Colombia into their first-ever semifinal and triggering massive celebrations back home.

Uruguay vs. Brazil

Neymar scores at 10' to take a 1-0 lead that Brazil holds for nearly the entire game, until Uruguay manager Celso Otero subs out Luis Suarez for 17-year old striker José Morales at 76'. Morales takes an assist from Fagundez and turns it into a brilliant score in the 88' to equalize and send the game to extra time. Neither team scores in extra time, sending the match to penalty shots.

Brazil:

Adriano NO GOOD
Oscar GOOD
Fred GOOD
Luiz NO GOOD
Neymar GOOD
Costa NO GOOD

Uruguay:

Calvani GOOD
Fagundez NO GOOD
Acosta GOOD
Castro GOOD
Suarez NO GOOD
Morales GOOD

The young Morales is the youngest-ever Man of the Match and is a national hero, scoring not only the equalizer but the winning penalty shot after Douglas Costa fails to convert for Brazil. Uruguay heads to their second semifinal in three World Cups.

?

Not an insult, just an observation. Lots of delicious politics, and then SPORTS SPORTS SPORTS SPORTS WORLD CUP WORLD CUP WORLD CUP just like 538. I for the record like them both so I'm not complaining; just noting the similarity

I'm going through a soccer phase right now, that's certainly part of it haha. I like your signature, by the way, that's usually how I feel.

2018 FIFA World Cup

Semifinals

Germany vs. Belgium

A clearly haggard and tired Belgium, subjected to two straight penalty shot games, struggles against Germany, with the game 0-0 until Draxler scores at 66' to give Germany a 1-0 lead. Belgium fails to equalize on a Hazard penalty at 82' and Germany hangs on to win 1-0 and go their second straight World Cup final.

Colombia vs. Uruguay

The game between heavily-favored Uruguay and Colombia remains 0-0 for most of the match until James Rodriguez takes a long cross from Cuadrado and shoots it into the corner of the goal. Fagundez equalizes at 70', but James scores again in stoppage time to send Colombia to its first-ever World Cup final with a 2-1 win.

Third Place Game

Belgium vs. Uruguay

Uruguay is favored to win its best showing since 1950, but Calvani's penalty shot at 59' is deflected by Courtois and the game goes 0-0 in regular time to head into extra minutes. In this time, Hazard scores once at 101' and de Bruyne scores at 118' to give Belgium their best-ever result with the third-place position and Uruguay is fourth place in the World Cup for the fourth time.

I know exactly where Richmond is, I've driven through there (and accidentally wound up driving to New Westminster) through there many times. Kelowna is worth checking out, Penticton... eh, not so much.

2018 FIFA World Cup

Final

At the final at Luzhinski Stadium in Moscow, Germany and Colombia face off with the scoring started by Thomas Müller at 51' after a scoreless first half. The goal gives Müller 7 goals in the tournament and pushes him past Miroslav Klose for most goals in World Cup history with 17. With the clock ticking down, Cuadrado heads the ball to Quintero, who shoots it on a cross to Falcao who kicks it into goal with a sliding strike to equalize at 84'. The game heads into extra minutes when David Ospina deflects Ozil's attempt at 90+1.

In extra time, the game becomes wild. At 100', Draxler scores his third goal of the tournament to take a 2-1 lead, heading the ball past Ospina. Just when it seems like Germany has finally taken over control of the game, Cuadrado gets the ball in isolation in midfield, shoots it on a cross to James Rodriguez who gets it into goal at 116'. At 2-2 with only minutes left before penalties, Germany's Mario Götze takes a cross from Müller and shoots it off of the crossbar at 120'. However, as it ricochets, it bounces to Toni Kroos who thinks fast and rifles it into goal past Ospina, who is still in the other end of goal scrambling to find the ball. With only two minutes of stoppage time, Germany's Draxler intercepts a long cross from Quintero and dribbles the ball away as the clock runs out and Germany has won the 2018 FIFA World Cup!

They become the first team since Brazil in 1958/1962 to win consecutive tournaments and only the third ever. They cement themselves along with the Spain side of 2008-2012, Brazil from 1958-1970 and 1994-2002, and Italy in the 1930s and Uruguay in the 1920s as one of the greatest teams in world footballing history.

Golden Ball: James Rodriguez, Colombia
Silver Ball: Thomas Müller, Germany
Bronze Ball: Diego Fagundez, Uruguay

Golden Boot: James Rodriguez (Colombia) and Thomas Müller (Germany), 7 each
Silver Boot: Neymar (BRA), 6
Bronze Boot: Ciro Immobile (Italy), Eden Hazard (Belgium), Diego Fagundez (Uruguay), 5 each

Golden Glove: David Ospina, Colombia
Best Young Player: José Morales, Uruguay (only player to ever win this award after playing only one game)

Major achievements: Thomas Müller has 17 goals in three World Cups, the most of any player. James Rodriguez has 13 goals in two World Cups, the second-fastest player to that mark after Just Fontaine. Neymar joins fellow Brazilians Pele and Ronaldo in the 10-goal club of players.

Austria in the World Cup, and we get further then the group phase? I love you! ;)

July 2018: The hottest summer in recorded history continues, with drought conditions in much of the Southwest unabated and water rationing going into effect in ten states. Massive wildfires sweep through much of central Colorado and Wyoming, one of the largest wildfires on record. An F5 tornado sweeps through much of Davenport, Iowa, killing 47 people. President Clinton visits both the scene in Colorado and Iowa as the environmentalist lobby cites all incidents as evidence that global warming is intensifying.

July 2018 (continued): Cristina Díaz is elected as the first female President of Mexico nearly by default as neither the PRI nor the PAN can field a candidate competent enough to defeat her. Karachi passes Shanghai as the world's largest city. Miguel Diaz-Canel succeeds Raul Castro as President of Cuba, with Castro staying on as Party Chairman.

We aim to please!

August 2018: A minor scandal engulfs the Clinton administration mere months before the midterms over staffer expenses. Secretary of Transportation Anthony Foxx announces that he will resign as soon as a replacement is picked; two days later, Clinton surprises many that she will nominate former New York MTA CEO and 2013 Republican mayoral candidate Joe Lhota to be the next Secretary of Transportation. It is a surprise mostly as it elevates a former opponent of Clinton ally Bill de Blasio and becomes the second Republican appointed to her Cabinet, seen as an olive branch extended to the expected incoming Republican House majority and potential Senate majority. At the end of the month, Julian Castro announces he will step down as HUD Secretary at the end of the year. Former US Rep. John Conyers dies in Detroit of a stroke.

August 2018 (continued): Seven French Foreign Legion troops are kidnapped and executed by Venezuelan paramilitaries, their bodies displayed on the Internet. French President Fillon gives a prime time address promising "we will avenge these young men who were murdered so brutally." The Venezuelan crisis has clearly spiraled out of control, and its conduct is negatively effecting the popularity ratings of most leaders in the major UN nations contributing to the peacekeeping force. Chuka Umunna is elected as the new leader of the Labour Party. Abdullah of Saudi Arabia dies at 94 after years in seclusion, with his 82-year old relative Salman taking the throne in his place and igniting fears of a power struggle that could destabilize the country. South Korean President Ahn visits Japan to sign a landmark defense treaty in which he and Prime Minister Takaichi promise to defend one another in case of attack, with an eye on North Korea as the potential aggressor.

And now, for Sports: New York Giants QB Eli Manning retires at the age of 37 after tearing his ACL in preseason football, sending the team scrambling to find a replacement. Paris St. Germain defeats UEFA Europa League winner Valencia for the UEFA Super Cup.

September 2018: Joe Lhota is approved by the Senate as Secretary of Transportation 90-7. Several notable female American public figures pass away - former Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, former Secretary of State Madeline Albright, and most prominently, former First Lady Nancy Reagan. Reagan's funeral at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley attracts nearly 60,000 people, including a who's who of prominent Republicans. Hurricane Florence hits Miami as a Category 4, becoming the most damaging hurricane to hit Florida since 1992's Andrew and flooding the city. It takes weeks to restore electricity to many poorer Hispanic and black neighborhoods, leading to accusations of de-prioritizing by the Scott administration and city officials.

September 2018 (continued): Serbia accuses Albania of tampering in Kosovo and threatens war. The Ukraine accuses Russia of re-escalating the conflict in the Donbass after the crisis there has been mostly contained. A tentative ceasefire arrangement in Syria is sketched out after several months of lull in fighting. Former German Premier Helmut Schmidt dies in Berlin at the age of 99, a few months short of his 100th birthday.

I'm excited for the midterms! Hopefully another Republican wave will be in order, ala 2010.

I think you'll be pleased with the House results, where R+10 is enough to win back control, but I don't want to give away anything with the Senate or Gov results :)

Canada's "Fall of Elections"

Within three weeks in late September and early October 2018, three Canadian provinces hold legislative elections. The results, as follows:

New Brunswick

Brian Gallant's Liberal team does not bring the promised economic growth and Gallant often comes across as in over his head. He manages to alienate Acadian Liberals and clashes with St. John-area Tories on regular occasions. The PCs, meanwhile, run a competent campaign behind Trevor Holder promising a tax reduction, an expansion of fracking, improved port in St. John and increased funding for schools and universities. Gallant's Liberals lose a net of eight seats to drop to 20, picking up the one Green-held seat. The Tories grab nine seats to hold a majority government of 30, and the NDP is shut out once again.

Progressive Conservatives 30
Liberals 19
NDP 0
Greens 0

Quebec

Quebec Premier Phillippe Couillard runs a competent, scandal-free government and makes that the centerpiece of his campaign. However, he is harmed by his party's perception as right-wing by many PQ and NDP supporters, with the NDP led by Pierre Ducasse emerging as a potent political force at the provincial level for the first time. Couillard's efforts to lower public debt and rein in pension costs make him an enemy of Quebec's vast but divided left.

PQ continues its meltdown as all but the most hard-core sovereigntists abandon PKP over his economic views. Former Premier Jean Charest states in an interview that "PQ has ceased to be a 'big-tent' party for Francophones now that they have alternatives." The interview becomes the backbone of the NDP advertising strategy, where they simply run the campaign as "an alternative." CAQ struggles to maintain its odd ideological position and polls indicate that they will lose seats.

The election sees Couillard returned in a minority government, losing 16 seats to drop to 54. QS loses all of its seats as NDP goes from zero seats to being the Official Opposition, blowing out both PQ and CAQ in all but a handful of seats. The final seat count:

Liberal 54
NDP 44
PQ 17
CAQ 10

Ontario

Ontario is last, where Kathleen Wynne's embattled Liberals preside over a slowing economy outside of the Toronto area and a new rash of scandals. With the PCs led by Christine Elliott, it is the first time that all three major parties are led by women. Elliott's PCs are the clear winners of the leadership debates, with Elliott citing her knowledge of finances and her repudation of Harris/Hudak style Thatcherism. Wynne does not perform well and her party falls behind the PCs in opinion polls, and Horwath continues her poor performances at the high level despite decent support for her party as a whole.

On election night, the Progressive Conservatives win a minority government with 46 seats to 39 for the Liberals, 20 for the NDP and 2 for the Greens, which is much less than polling indicated the PCs would attain. The narrow result emboldens the PC right, suggesting that Premier-elect Elliott will likely need to lean on the Liberals and NDP for her support despite most of her caucus freshmen being fellow moderates.

Progressive Conservative 46
Liberal 39
New Democrat 20
Green 2

It is not lost on any observers that the Liberal Party loses government in two of the provinces, including Canada's largest, and loses significant seats in all three both to parties on their right and on their left. It is seen as the first major setback to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Surprised Julian Castro didn't quit sooner to run in TX in 2018

I figured taking on an incumbent like Greg Abbott or Ted Cruz in a midterm w/ a Democrat in the White House would be a VERY tough slog and Castro is savvy enough to know this.

October 2018: The midterm elections keep ratcheting up, though this year there is no unifying issue like ObamaCare to fire up the Republican grassroots like in 2010 or mass of administration gaffes to fill the news like in 2014. Still, most Democrats expect to lose about 10-20 seats in the House and thus their narrow majority and few think they can keep the Senate, though polling there looks much more favorable. Clinton barnstorms the country with her husband, Vice President Heinrich and several Cabinet members who are much more okay with campaigning than any of Obama's were, which draws rebukes from many Republicans. Tragedy strikes when Rep. Don Young suffers a fatal stroke a few weeks before what would be his easy reelection to his 22nd term in office. Governor Bill Walker states that there is no way the ballots can be changed at this late date, and most predict he will be elected posthumously. He was the Dean of the House at the time of his passing.

October 2018 (continued): Angela Merkel officially steps down as Chancellor of Germany after 13 years in power, handing over the reins to Ursula von der Leyen. It marks the end of a chapter of German history which saw them become even more central to the EU, and in which public opinion of Germany in the EU periphery is the most polarized since the 1950s and 1960s, particularly in the Mediterranean. She is applauded by many conservatives worldwide and her leaving office is hailed by many on the left, particularly due to signs that der Leyen is much more pro-growth than her predecessor. After an economically disastrous second term full of recession, inflation and high unemployment, the PT loses the 2018 elections as Aecio Neves is elected in the first round over sclerotic opposition to become the first center-right Brazilian President since 2002.

And now, for Sports: In five games, the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2018 World Series over the Houston Astros to become the first back-to-back champion since the Yankees won three straight from 1998-2000.

Looking forward eagerly to the midterms coverage. Your attention to detail is mesmerizing. Do you know how the Swedish elections went?

Ah shoot! I knew I was forgetting something in the September range. I was going to predict a slightly larger Social Democratic minority, still short of a full majority, with the right continuing to lose vote share to the Sweden Democrats.

A brief analysis of the 2018 Brazilian election campaign:

Aecio Neves runs a campaign basically lauding widely popular ex-President Lula and accusing the outgoing Rousseff administration of squandering the Lula era's achievements. Though this campaign is cited by The Economist as "intellectually vapid" due to the commodities boom and Neves coming from an anti-PT party, it is largely successful in driving a wedge between many soft-PT voters in the middle class who supported Lula but have turned in large numbers against Rousseff. He also scores a coup by getting four political parties, including the PSB, to back him on a joint ticket called "Brazil Renewal," and he has the first Afro-Brazilian running mate in history. The tack to the center earns him both the votes of conservatives and moderates who are not natural PT voters and left-meaning middle class voters who have grown tired of on-and-off recessions and high unemployment under Dilma to power him to a 51% victory in the first round.

Neves strikes a conciliatory tone in his victory speech, particularly since Brazil Renewal (RB) does not have a majority in Congress despite gains. He promises to strengthen and expand Bolsa Familia, to build new nuclear and hydropower plants to increase energy to the cities, allow foreign competition with Petrobras and expand and modernize ten of Brazil's busiest ports.

United States elections, 2018

Author's Note: Once again, this goes east to west. This is not indicative of poll closings or order of wins, just an easy way to organize the write-up.

Maine

ME-Gov: With Paul LePage term limited and Angus King a heavy favorite for reelection, this becomes the focal race. Democrats get a huge boost when Eliot Cutler elects not to run and is later appointed to a high-ranking position in charge of renewable energy in the Department of Energy. Former Treasurer and US Rep. Bruce Poliquin enters the race on the Republican side to face US Rep. Chellie Pingree, who retires from Congress after five terms. It is widely suspected that Pingree chose to run for Governor after hearing that Susan Collins intended to run for reelection in 2020 through back channels. Without a spoiler candidate like Cutler and after a very tumultuous second term under the polarizing LePage, Pingree leverages her popularity in her home district and wins statewide 51-48 despite narrowly losing most of the rural counties of the 2nd District to Poliquin, who represented it for a term. D+1.

ME-Senate: Democrats decline to nominate a serious candidate, and so Shenna Bellows runs an even more quixotic campaign than in 2014, receiving only $5,000 from the DSCC. LePage is the Republican nominee after 30-year old Paulite State Senator Eric Brakey decides not to challenge for the position. With a leftist activist and the polarizing, unpopular LePage as his opposition, King strikes the middle ground and is a good fit for Maine's independent-minded, moderate voters and cruises to a 60-32-6 general election win.

ME-1: With Chellie Pingree retiring, Democrats avoid a divisive primary when former State Senator Justin Alfond announces he will run for Mayor of Portland in 2019 instead. Pingree's daughter Hannah, a former State House Speaker. In the very Democratic district, Pingree is elected over State Senator Amy Volk.

ME-2: Troy D. Jackson is elected narrowly to a second term over 33-year old State Senator Garrett Mason, whom he defeats 48-46 in the R-trending district.

Maine Legislature: No seats change hands in the Senate, leading to continued 18-17 Republican control. House Democrats lose three seats to drop to 82-68-1, with Republicans gaining 4 seats net, picking up a seat held by a retiring independent as well.

United States elections, 2018

New Hampshire

NH Governor: Incumbent Democrat Joe Foster favors Paulite/Tea Party candidate Andrew Hemingway. Despite chatter early that Hemingway could beat Foster due to his credentials as an "independent conservative perfect for the Live Free or Die State's uniquely independent sensibilities" and excitement over his campaign in the tech-savvy Nashua area, Foster runs a savvy, competent campaign highlighting his state's decent job growth and defeats Hemingway 52-47, a wider margin than expected.

NH-1: Guinta challenges Donna Soucy to take back his old seat. He is unsuccessful, losing 51-48, a wider margin than his loss in Presidential-turnout 2016. Guinta announces afterwards that he is retiring from politics permanently.

NH Legislature: Republicans gain one seat in the Senate to retake the majority, 13-11. Democrats lose 15 seats in the Legislature as Republicans gain 12, giving a 195-192-12 arrangement with independents holding the balance of power. The independents strike a deal with Democrats to elevate Indy David Luneau to the Speakership.

United States elections, 2018

VT Governor: Peter Shumlin retires to run for Senate (more on that below), leaving an open seat. Progressive State Senator David Zuckerman runs on a Democrat/Progressive fusion ticket against Republican Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott. Despite Vermont's left lean, Scott runs as a competent technocrat and completely downplays any and all social issues. A gadfly U of V professor runs as an independent in protest of Zuckerman appearing on a Democratic ticket, helping Scott's 56-40-4 MOV at the margins. R+1.

VT Senate: Bernie Sanders retires after 28 years in Congress - 16 in the House, twelve in the Senate. Though Tim Ashe debates running, he decides to try for Attorney General instead, leaving Peter Shumlin with a clear shot at the nomination after Peter Welch declines the bid. Republicans fail to convince Jim Douglas to run and thus serve up State Sen. Diane Snelling, who runs a lethargic campaign that allows Shumlin to cruise to victory with a 70-29 margin of victory. Sort of D+1.

VT Attorney General: Vermont earns its second statewide Progressive officeholder as Tim Ashe is elected Attorney General.

VT Legislature: Progressives knock off a few more Democrats and Republicans gain no seats to continue the legislature's leftward drift.

United States elections, 2018

Massachusetts

MA-Gov: Charlie Baker governs competently and uncontroversially and maintains strong approval ratings for almost all of his term. As a result, no statewide Democrats or US Reps jump in to challenge him. State Senator Barry Finegold runs, suspected by many to merely be an attempt to raise name recognition in anticipation of Seth Moulton running for Senate or Governor in 2020 or 2022. Predictably, Baker wins a 57-41 victory over the low-wattage Finegold campaign.

MA-Sen: Though Republicans initially try to coerce Kerry Healey or Karyn Polito to run against Elizabeth Warren, neither wants to take on one of the more formidable Democratic incumbents, especially after Warren has built herself into the leader of the Democratic left-wing and thus has the backing of nearly every major outside liberal group. National Republicans fume over the recruiting flop, and only former Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling is willing to get in. Warren crushes him 66-31 in a landslide reelection.

MA Congress: Neither blowout wins atop the ticket translate into anything downballot. All nine members of the delegation are easily reelected.

MA Legislature: Republicans gain two suburban seats in the Senate and one seat in the House, still at a serious disadvantage in both houses.

Rhode Island

RI-Gov: Despite distaste for her from labor groups and the activist left, Gina Raimondo does not face a serious primary challenge and is easily reelected over Alan Fung, 53-46.

RI-AG: With Pete Kilmartin retiring, the seat is won instead by State Rep. Michael Marcello.

RI-Sen: Whitehouse is elected unopposed.

RI Congress: Both incumbents cruise to crushing reelection wins with no primary opposition.

RI Legislature: Democrats lose one seat in the Senate and three in the House, all in the southern part of the state.

Why dont you just tell us what tomorrow's winning lotton numbers will be?

United States elections, 2018

Connecticut

CT-Gov: Dannel Malloy, after initially saying he would seek a third term, decides not to run. Out of the Democratic primary emerges State Rep. William Tong, running with the backing of both Blumenthal and Murphy. Republicans struggle to find a top flight recruit after Chris Shays passes on the chance and run Themis Klarides, who struggles to find success against the young, energetic Tong. Tong, thought of as a dark horse when entering five-candidate primary, is the first Asian-American Governor elected on the Eastern Seaboard.

CT-Sen: Chris Murphy is easily reelected Senator over a hedge fund manager.

CT Congress: All five incumbents are reelected with ease.

CT Legislature: Republicans make no gains in the Senate and only pick up two seats in the House.

Nice, I like Tong. Who else ran in the Democratic primary for gov, if you don't mind me asking?

Powerball or Mega Millions?

Figured probably Lembo and Lamont, maybe through in a businessman or two to appeal to the moderates. Maybe Glassman runs again, though I figured it'd be better to grant her her lifelong dream of being Lieutenant Gov.

United States elections, 2018

New York

Author's Note: Some changes to the NY results from 2016 are in order after word came the other day that Gibson was retiring, so I'll add that to the D+1 column since I made a mistake and counted Lovely Warren in NY-25 as a gain when she was really a hold, that way the numbers still work out to the 228-207 majority. We'll say that Didi Barrett won in NY-19 and she is the incumbent (Spoiler Alert: Not for much longer.) Also, with Grimm resigning and it looking unlikely that McMahon is going to get in, we'll move forward with Donovan having won the special and Cusick defeating him in November of 2016 (more on that below too).

NY-Gov: The big story here is obviously the Governor's race, in which two-term incumbent Andrew Cuomo finds himself embattled as he seeks a third term. Unlike 2014, when the only opposition he could attract was lefty gadfly Zephyr Teachout, a candidate who stood absolutely no chance against Cuomo's machine. This time, however, he faces two very credible candidates both challenging him from his left: New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, running as a favorite of the activist faction of the party with WFP backing, and former US Attorney Preet Bharara, running on an anti-corruption and good government platform of "sweeping Albany clean." Cuomo finds that he has completely alienated the left wing of the NY Democratic party and that the establishment, haggard after numerous corruption charges and allegations, is suffering. The Clintons, allies of both Cuomo and de Blasio, decline to endorse, and through back channels it becomes apparent that both Schumer and Gillibrand prefer Bharara. In one of the great (and late, due to the date of the NY primary) election surprises, the powerful Governor goes down to the grassroots campaign of Bharara, who earns the support of the centrist wing and many pragmatic liberals who doubt de Blasio can carry statewide but have soured on Cuomo.

Republicans, meanwhile, close ranks behind former US Rep. Chris Gibson early on. The moderate from the Hudson Valley runs as a competent moderate and cites Charlie Baker as one of his inspirations. His platform is designed, like Bharara's, on stamping out corruption, trying to revitalize the upstate and simplifying the business climate in New York. His ties to the Republican 2011-2017 House majority hurt him with many New York City voters, but he focuses his efforts on moderate suburbs in the hope that he can peel off enough voters to narrowly win what he concedes is an uphill battle. Much of his campaign strategy is based on hoping that de Blasio wins and running against him as a big spending city liberal.

Bharara's win and his choice of Albany County DA David Soares as his running mate create the first ticket in New York history without a white candidate, a gamble Bharara makes to fire up the liberal base. After attaining the WFP line and the Independence Party line, Bharara heads into a tight November race with Gibson, who taps Staten Island Borough President James Oddo as his running mate. Though Gibson - regarded as the best statewide GOP in decades, superior on paper even to Pataki or Giuliani - led the race against all three candidates through much of the summer pre-convention and primary, Bharara pulls ahead in mid-September and never relinquishes the lead, winning 55-43.

United States elections, 2018

New York (continued)

NY-Sen: The GOP runs State Senator Susan Serino against Gillibrand, who crushes her opponent 70-29, one of the largest and most lopsided margins in history and winning all but two counties in the central part of the state.

NY Attorney General: With Schneiderman the US Attorney General and his replacement, former US Rep. Tim Bishop retiring after the end of the term, the prominent position is open. Brooklyn DA Ken Thompson runs as a favorite of the left and wins the primary before being nominated at the convention, and crushes Assemblyman Steven McLaughlin 57-40.

NY-1: Democrats once again fail to recruit a top-tier candidate to take on Lee Zeldin, who cruises to reelection thanks to his moderate credentials and excellent campaign, winning nearly 70% of the vote against a Hamptons socialite.

NY-2: Peter King finally retires. Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone elects not to challenge for the seat, citing a desire to serve out his current term, and so State Senator Philip Boyle is elected to succeed him. R hold.

NY-11: This turns once again into New York City's prime battleground as State Rep. Nicole Malliotakis challenges US Rep. Mike Cusick. In one of the narrowest elections of the night, Cusick barely hangs on to win a second term in office, winning by only 1,000 votes.

NY-19: In the easiest Republican pickup in the state, Didi Barrett is defeated by moderate Assemblyman Peter Lopez 55-44, with Barrett running an atrocious campaign and Lopez riding Gibson's coattails in his old district. R+1.

NY-22: Richard Hanna challenges US Rep. Robert Palmieri for his old seat. Hanna is initially expected to crush the man he lost his seat to in the range of ten to twenty points, but instead wins by a comfortable but surprisingly narrow 53-46 margin. R+1.

NY-23: 31-year old black US Rep. Svante Myrick, regarded by most as the one-term rental wave baby to end all one-term rental wave babies, runs a surprisingly slick Congressional operation and is home in his district every weekend with outstanding constituent outreach. State Rep. Philip Palmesano challenges him and the race is rated a Pure Tossup by most local media outlets and Lean R by most national pundits. Favored to win by 5-10 points, Palmesano winds up losing 50-49 as Myrick scoots into office in yet another narrow, down-to-the-wire election, with less than a 1,000 votes of margin separating him from defeat. D hold.

NY Leg: Democrats lose two seats in the Senate to narrowly hold the chamber 32-31, but the IDC has been whittled down now to the point where there is little risk of them losing the chamber again. Democrats also lose four seats in the Assembly to fall to 104-46, still a daunting margin for the GOP.

United States elections, 2018

New Jersey

NJ Sen: Bob Menendez cruises to what he promises will be his final term against Jon Bramnick, winning 54-42 with some third party votes siphoned off to two indy businessmen.

NJ Congress: A boring election for Congress-watchers, as the whole delegation is reelected without incident or much sweat. Even freshman Bill Hughes, Jr. is reelected without much drama.

Delaware

DE Sen: Tom Carper announces his retirement after liberal outside groups start hunting for a candidate to challenge him. After Governor Beau Biden passes on a run, Jack Markell and John Carney emerge as the two candidates most likely to enter the fray. When they both enter, it creates a tantalizing primary. Republicans choose not to focus on an uphill race against two multiple-time statewide winners and do not put Ken Simpler forward. Markell becomes the favorite of the more grassroots left and Carney is the establishment pick for the seat. In a reversal from the 2008 gubernatorial primary, Carney defeats Markell with 53% of the vote and goes on to defeat Greg Lavelle 60-39 in the general election.

DE-At Large: A recruiting flop for Democrats! Matthew P. Denn loses his primary for the at-large seat to Wilmington Mayor Dennis Williams, who is a tremendous flop outside of the city and very narrowly loses the seat for Democrats to State Senator Brian Pettyjohn, a moderate Republican. R+1.

US Elections, 2018

Maryland

MD Gov: The Appalachian and Delmarva portions of the Maryland GOP base sours on Hogan after he cuts several deals with the state legislature and never rescinds either the rain tax or the strict gun control laws. Chris Shank runs against him in the GOP primary, narrowly losing but crippling Hogan nonetheless. Democrats, meanwhile, coalesce quickly around US Rep. John Delaney, who runs a much more upbeat and active campaign than Anthony Brown in 2014 and unites the party's squabbling factions by appointing ultra-liberal Heather Mizeur as his Lieutenant Governor. He defeats Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake in the primary by a much wider margin than expected and in a narrow general election contest defeats Hogan 51-47, hardly a massive mandate but a big win nonetheless for Maryland Democrats. D+1.

MD Senate: Ben Cardin retires after two terms, to the surprise of many. Chris Van Hollen becomes the early favorite and he defeats Donna Edwards in the primary, a unique affair which pits two members of House leadership against one another. CVH then goes on to face State Sen. JB Jennings in the general after Andy Harris declines to run, and Van Hollen wins 56-40, with independent businessman Kevin Plank picking up six percent of the vote.

MD-4: With Donna Edwards retiring, Anthony Muse, a pastor and State Senator, becomes the nominee in this suburban DC district. Muse easily wins the heavily Democratic district.

MD-6: Delaney's retirement opens his swingy district up. State Rep. John Donoghue runs for the Democrats against Republican State Rep. David Brinkley. Despite Delaney and Van Hollen carrying the top of the ticket, Donoghue turns out to be a surprisingly poor candidate and is defeated by the superior campaign operation of Brinkley, who runs as a centrist to appeal to the DC suburbs and beats out the Democratic lean of the district. R+1.

MD-8: In this safe Democratic district, 16-year House Majority Leader Kumar Barve wins and succeeds Van Hollen.

MD Legislature: Democrats gain 4 seats in the Senate and two seats in the State House.

United States elections, 2018

Pennsylvania

PA Gov: Pat Meehan challenges Tom Wolf for Governor rather than try a return to Congress. The race becomes one of the premier races of the cycle, with Wolf's record being one of a competent technocrat who has still struggled with his very conservative legislature. Meehan's campaign attracts a lot of cash from the RGA (run by David Vitter), but he struggles to make much of an impact against the moderately popular Wolf, who continues to burnish his image as an uncontroversial manager. Meehan loses narrowly as Democrats hold one of their most crucial Governorships 51-48.

PA Sen: Mike Fitzpatrick elects to challenge Bob Casey for the Senate seat after Charlie Dent decides to seek reelection to his House seat. Fitzpatrick runs as a moderate after attracting negligible primary opposition and Casey must campaign much harder than he did in 2012 to keep his office. As part of the DSCC's "Swing Five" (PA, OH, FL, WI, and VA), millions are poured into the state to protect Casey. Despite his late-responding campaign (second time in a row) and a competent operation by Fitzpatrick, Casey is reelected 51-48, his narrowest result yet.

PA-6: Ryan Costello challenges Judy Schwank to get his seat back. In the moderate Philly suburbs her district covers, Costello is able to narrowly defeat the woman who defeated him in 2016 51-48 to regain his seat. R+1.

All other incumbents are reelected, with Matt Bradford and Patrick Murphy staving off challengers out of the state senate to win second terms.

PA Legislature: Republicans pick up seven seats in the House, particularly in swingy SEPA districts to increase their majority to 112-91. However, Democrats pick up two of the seats lost in 2014 to narrow the GOP advantage in the Senate to 27-23.

United States elections, 2018

West Virginia

WV Sen: Joe Manchin announces his retirement in early 2017 and Democrats run Carte Goodwin, who despite an engaging campaign loses by a wide margin to Evan Jenkins, who in a surprise promises to only serve one term if elected. Jenkins wins 57-42, and West Virginia now has an entirely-Republican Congressional delegation for the first time in nearly 100 years. R+1.

WV-03: With Evan Jenkins retiring to run for Senate, State Senator Daniel Hall wins the Republican primary and faces Robert Plymale in the general election. Hall wins 56-43, belying the Democratic tradition in the region but its recent Republican swing. R hold.

WV Legislature: Republicans win 1 seat in the Senate and two in the House to expand both majorities (22-12 and 68-32, respectively).

Kentucky

KY Congress: All incumbents are reelected by comfortable margins.

KY Legislature: Democrats pull a rabbit out of a hat once again, holding the State House and actually gaining one seat in the Senate.

United States elections, 2018

Tennessee

TN Gov: Senator Bob Corker runs for Governor as widely expected and crushes Stacy Campfield in the primary 80-19. With the widely popular Corker running in the race, Democrats do not put up any serious opposition after Nashville Mayor Karl Dean declines to run and Corker is elected in a 77-20 landslide, one of the biggest margins in modern Tennessee history.

TN Sen: Bill Haslam, in what is called the "Tennessee Two-Step," runs for Corker's vacant Senate seat. Very popular and respected in the TN GOP, Haslam attracts only minnows as opposition in the primary and cruises to victory in November over a no-name Nashville businessman 69-29.

TN Congress: All incumbents reelected.

TN Legislature: Republicans, behind the top-ticket landslides, expand their Senate majority to 28-5 and retake the three house seats lost in 2016 to go back to 73-26.

Virginia

VA Sen: In the marquee race of the cycle in this state, Tim Kaine faces US Rep. Scott Rigell, who passed on a 2017 gubernatorial race to run for this office. The race is initially tight, but Kaine does not get caught sleeping like Mark Warner did in 2014 and pours millions into voter turnout operations and campaigns three or four days a week, especially in Northern Virginia. Rigell spends most of his time trying to persuade suburbanites to elect him, with his aim to max out downstate Republican voters and cut into Kaine's margins just enough to squeak by with a narrow win. Though Rigell runs a terrific campaign, Kaine runs an even better one and wins 54-45 on election night, a much wider margin than was expected with surprisingly strong turnout statewide. As always, Rigell stays ahead for much of the evening with the early GOP precincts reporting first, before Kaine pulls ahead after about 90 minutes of counting and never relinquishes the lead.

VA-2: Rigell's retirement leads to an open seat. Democrats' top choice, Lynwood Lewis, decides not to run for the seat and they are unable to convince Ralph Northam, still at the VA, to jump into the fray either. Virginia Beach Mayor Will Sessoms wins a wide-open GOP primary, promising to serve only three terms, and wins 55-45 over a local business owner. R hold.

VA Congress: All other incumbents reelected, including the somewhat-vulnerable Rick Morris and Robert Hurt, who easily dispatch their Democratic opponents.

North Carolina

NC-4: David Price retires after 22 years in Congress. State Senator Valerie Foushee of Chapel Hill is elected to succeed him.

NC-12: Alma Adams retires after only two terms of her own right, citing health concerns. Charlotte-area Senator Malcolm Graham is elected in her stead.

All other incumbents are easily reelected.

NC Legislature: Democrats hold all Senate seats to keep the Republican margin at 32-18. Republicans take back one of the seats in the House to go to 69-51.

United States elections, 2018

South Carolina

SC Gov: Alan Wilson is the first man to throw his name into the ring and becomes the favorite of the GOP establishment, backed most prominently by his father Joe Wilson. The grassroots Tea Party wing of the SCGOP backs Mick Mulvaney, setting up an Upstate vs. Downstate race in the GOP primary. Even though most of their beliefs do not really differ significantly, Wilson runs as the more collegial, traditional genteel Southern politician while Mulvaney runs on a platform of putting a "true conservative champion" in a Southern Governor's mansion, something that becomes a priority in 2018 for outside conservative groups with the swath of open seats. Wilson and Mulvaney advance to a runoff after both fail to clear 50%. In the runoff, Mulvaney beats Wilson 51-49, a perilously close amount. After Wilson initially considers asking for a recount, he declines and endorses his opponent.

Mulvaney defeats third-time candidate Vincent Sheheen narrowly, as there are some concerns he may be too conservative even for the state's electorate, but wins nonetheless to become Governor of South Carolina.

SC-5: Mulvaney is succeeded by the man who succeeded him in the SC Senate, Greg Gregory.

SC Legislature: The numbers state 30 to 16 in the SC Senate, and Democrats actually pick up two seats in the South Carolina House to narrow the GOP majority to 75-49.

United States elections, 2018

Georgia

GA Gov: Nathan Deal leaves office marred by scandals which taint his preferred successor Casey Cagle as well, particularly a conflict of interest issue over an EB-5 real estate development Deal allegedly facilitated by co-mingling official funds and taking kickbacks. The scandal ravages much of the Georgia GOP, with Deal becoming toxic by the middle of 2018 and many calling on him to resign.

As a result, Cagle opts not to run and endorses SOS Brian Kemp. Rep. Tom Graves runs as a grassroots favorite, before Jody Hice jumps into the race and sets off alarm bells across the state GOP. There is a major effort to recruit Jack Kingston to run in order to bridge both sides of the party divide, but he declines. The national GOP makes it an explicit point to try to defeat Hice, pouring millions of dollars into the Graves campaign to try to prop it up as Kemp starts to flounder under the pressure of attacks from both social conservatives backing the firebrand Hice and the AFP/CFG brigades coming to defend Graves. Graves and Hice advance to the runoff.

Graves is an awkward fit for the South Georgia crowd that has not had any true champion in the primary, which narrowly swings to Hice, leading him to win the runoff 51-49. Though most GOP observers were confident in Graves' ability to hold the Governorship, Hice's win leads to the RGA starting to triage the race over the public protests of RGA Vice-Chairman Mike Pence, who cites Hice as an "exemplary conservative leader."

On the Democratic side, meanwhile, the race turns into a race between two fairly moderate Democrats, Kasim Reed and Jason Carter. Carter is the more economically liberal of the two, while Reed positions himself as a potentially historic candidate. With no other candidates in the race, Carter manages to leverage his connections to the burgeoning progressive interests in the state and from his previous run to narrowly defeat Reed, whose connections with the Deal administration hurt him. Incidentally, he only has lukewarm support in the black community, with many prominent Atlanta black politicians endorsing Carter instead.

The race is initially down to the wire, but Carter barnstorms southern Georgia and tries to rely on his grandfather's ties to the region. Hice focuses his campaign on the conservative Georgia exurbs to try to replicate the social conservative turnout for Cruz from two years prior and tries to emphasize a more moderate economic plan than many GOP primary voters likely hoped for, suggesting support for a transportation tax to fix congestion in the greater Atlanta area and improving community colleges. However, Hice's controversial statements on Muslims, women and religion come back to haunt him and Carter starts to pull out of runoff territory with a libertarian third-party challenge fizzling out. In one of the biggest shockers of the election, Democrats return after 16 years to the governor's mansion as Jason Carter defeats Jody Hice 52-47-1, narrowly avoiding a runoff. D+1 (and the biggest D+1 of the election).

GA Row Officers: Bill Cowsert is elected Attorney General, Butch Miller is elected Secretary of State.

GA-10: Mike Collins, defeated by Jody Hice in the 2014 primary, is elected four years later as his replacement in this Safe R district.

GA-14: Tom Graves is replaced in Congress by John Deffenbaugh, who cruises to an election win in one of the country's most Republican districts.

GA Legislature: The Senate remains 37-19 in favor of the GOP, while Democrats pick up two marginal suburban Atlanta seats in the House to continue to narrow the GOP advantage to 114-66.

United States elections, 2018

Alabama

AL Gov: The Republican primary is wide-ranging, featuring Mo Brooks, Luther Strange and Del Marsh. Marsh and Brooks split the more conservative vote to give the uncontroversial Strange the opening he needs to win the Republican primary, after which he easily cruises to a general election win over Democrat Bobby Bright.

AL Congress: All incumbents reelected with ease, no retirements.

AL Legislature: No change in composition in either house for the second cycle in a row.

Mississippi

MS Congress: All incumbents reelected without significant challenge.

Arkansas

AR Gov: Pat Hays challenges Asa Hutchinson, who has become thoroughly unpopular with his state's electorate. The idea for Democrats is that Hays has the credibility and the support of the Clintons to take out Hutch, who has become toxic due to his poor relations with the very conservative legislature, a number of bungled initiatives and a scandal over tampering with high school test scores at the state level. Hutchinson announces he will not seek a second term and Tim Griffin jumps in to run instead. Griffin, relatively untainted by Hutchinson and popular in the state, defeats Hays 55-44 to become the next Governor of Arkansas.

AR Lt. Gov: Griffin is replaced by Bruce Holland.

AR Congress: All four incumbents easily reelected.

AR Legislature: Democrats actually regain one seat in the Senate, but regain none in the House.

United States elections, 2018

Ohio

OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown faces Steve Stivers, who runs a second time for the Senate after coming close two years earlier. Though some are worried that Brown will get taken down by his increasingly liberal stances in the swingy, moderate state and that Stivers will be carried over the finish line by the gubernatorial candidate (more below), Brown holds on to win 51-48, his narrowest result yet. Stivers announces the end of his political career after losing the contest, and Democrats have now officially held three of the five swingy Senate seats they needed to protect outside of the truly vulnerable five in Romney/Cruz states.

OH-Gov: Richard Cordray runs for the Democrats as their gubernatorial nominee against SOS Jon Husted, who promises that he will use John Kasich as his model as a Governor. Though Cordray is initially thought of as the top-tier candidate Democrats need, his rust as a candidate (not being on a ballot for eight years) shows early in the campaign and the ODP pours its resources into downballot offices starting in early summer when Cordray continues to struggle, though not like Ed Fitzgerald imploded four years earlier. Husted narrowly wins, 50-48, as Cordray's campaign effects a late surge, so Republicans will continue their dynasty in the Ohio Statehouse.

OH Row Officers: However, Cordray's and the ODP's campaign operations, combined with Sherrod Brown's efforts, elect Connie Pillich as State Treasurer and Senator Joe Schiavoni is elected Attorney General. Josh Mandel, the outgoing state treasurer, is elected SOS.

OH-8: Former House Speaker John Boehner retires at the end of his 14th term in Congress. He is replaced in this Safe R district by former State Senator Chris Widener, who promises to only serve three terms if elected.

OH-10: Mike Turner comes back to challenge Fred Strahorn, the man who defeated him in 2016. In the most hard-fought House campaign in Ohio this year, Turner edges out the well-liked and well-funded Strahorn 50-49, a similarly narrow margin to two years earlier. R+1.

OH-16: Betty Sutton holds on against Jim Renacci in yet another House rematch, winning 51-48 in another emerging battleground in Ohio. D hold.

OH Legislature: Democrats win two seats in the Senate to cut the GOP advantage to 19-14, and win four seats in the House to go to 56-43.

United States elections, 2018

Indiana

IN Sen: The marquee race in the state, maybe in the country. Joe Donnelly is by far the most endangered Senate Democrat and trails both Todd Rokita and Greg Ballard, the major figures in the Republican primary. Ballard runs up a good margin in native Indianapolis, but Rokita appeals more to rural voters who make up the base of the party. Neither candidate tries to particularly seize the Tea Party mantle like Stutzman did two years earlier. Rokita's win puts him in pole position to win in November - Donnelly's lightning does not strike twice and he is defeated 53-46 by Rokita to become the first Senate incumbent to officially lose as the count comes in. R+1 (Republicans now have effected a 50-50 tie in the Senate and need only one more seat for a majority).

IN-2: Walorski campaigns to retake her old seat from Rep. John Broden, one of the Democratic surprises of 2016. However, Broden's campaign operation and terrific constituent outreach network buoys him against the general R tide in the state to give him another narrow win, and he is returned to Congress by an 1,800 vote margin that in fact expands after a recount. Walorski announces she is leaving politics after the result.

IN-4: With Rokita retiring to seek the Senate seat, State Rep. Randy Truitt wins a wide open primary and in this very Republican district easily wins the general election with nearly 60% of the vote.

IN Legislature: GOP control of the Senate remains 34-16, with the party mostly maxed out of seats in this class. In the House, Republicans take back two seats lost in 2016 to beef up their margin to 66-34.

United States elections, 2018

Michigan

MI Gov: The most prominent race boils down to Bill Schuette, who defeats Lt. Gov. Brian Calley in the primary, and Gretchen Whitmer, the consensus Democratic choice to run for Governor in the moderately blue state. Schuette - more conservative than outgoing Governor Rick Snyder or Calley - does not go over well in Detroit or many of its D-leaning suburbs, though the polarizing Whitmer does not play well in rural Michigan. The party focuses its energy largely on electing Whitmer and her Lt. Gov. choice of Coleman Young II, who would become the first black Lieutenant Governor if elected (Whitmer chooses Young to balance the ticket, with one Detroit and one non-Detroit candidate). Schuette, meanwhile, decides to try to heal the rift in the party after the divisive primary by asking Calley to stay on as lieutenant governor. Whitmer/Young are elected over Schuette/Calley 50-48, with an independent taking a small percentage of votes. A crucial D+1 for redistricting in the coming decade.

MI Sen: Debbie Stabenow cruises to reelection over ex-Rep. Mike Bishop, whom she defeats 57-42.

MI-7: Tim Walberg is back! He ousts the man who defeated him, Brian Mackie, 52-47. R+1.

MI-9: For the third consecutive cycle, the Dean of the Michigan delegation retires. Sander Levin does not seek reelection after thirty-six years in Congress and is replaced in his mostly Democratic district by State Sen. Steve Bieda, who runs much closer than he should against a local businessman. D hold.

MI-11: David Trott comes back to run against Justin Tucker and defeats the young Congressman, this time without spoiler Kerry Bentivolio to worry about. Trott wins 56-43, one of the larger margins of loss of any Democratic incumbent nationwide. Trott's campaign focuses on Tucker's poor constituent services and numerous public gaffes. R+1.

Michigan Legislature: Democrats have a surprisingly good cycle in the Senate, defending their slew of open seats and not losing a single open one to Republicans. Meanwhile, with most of the GOP's seats open too, three open GOP seats, all in suburban Detroit, fall to Democrats to shave the advantage down to 24-14, which based on modern history is fairly good for Team D. Republicans, meanwhile gain three seats in the House to retake the chamber with a very tenuous 55-54 margin. Discussions begin among moderate Democrats and suburban Republicans to form a centrist coalition that can swing policy debates in the House. R gain... for now.

United States elections, 2018

Illinois

IL Gov: This race is one of the most-watched in the nation. The summer default on Illinois' public debt and pension obligations damages pretty much everyone involved. Democrats have even more horrible numbers downstate than usual and Rauner's numbers dive in suburban Chicago. Tom Dart runs a fervently anti-incumbent campaign, running as a no-nonsense law and order type against the "vulture capitalist" who caused the default. Rauner (correctly) counters that Dart was part of the state legislature and Cook County sheriff's department that contributed to cost overruns, but the attacks do not work for an angry electorate. Many southern Illinoisians do not turn out for Rauner, and Dart wins 53-46. D+1.

IL Row Officers: Kimberly Lightford is elected Attorney General, and all other row officers are reelected.

IL-1: Bobby Rush retires and in one of the safest D districts in the country, Kwame Raoul replaces him easily.

IL-10: The Eternal Derby continues - Brad Schneider is defeated by former Congressman Bob Dold. R+1, but we'll probably see Schneider run again in 2020.

IL-12: James Clayborne becomes yet another one-term wonder in southern Illinois as Mike Bost storms back to oust him 55-44 as the anti-incumbent wave continues sweeping Illinois. R+1.

IL-13: Once again, Rodney Davis proves to be a much better candidate than Democrats think, beating Ann Callis 60-40 in a stunningly large margin for what is such an even district on paper.

Illinois Legislature: Democrats lose one seat in the Senate to drop to 40-19. However, the Democrats suffer much worse losses in the House, where they lose six seats to fall to 62-56. Mike Madigan is ousted in a leadership coup by Democrats a few days after the election.

Hooray!

After Indiana, you said Republicans only need one more for a majority but isn't the only other seat they've won West Virginia? Which would make it still 51-49 D control so far.

D's had 52-48 after Susana Martinez appointed John Sanchez Senator for New Mexico after Heinrich's resignation to become VP (it was helpfully pointed out to me that in NM, the replacement does not need to be from the same party). Earlier indications that the Senate was 53-47 were incorrect as a result.

Oh woops I missed that part my bad, keep up the great work

United States elections, 2018

Iowa

IA Gov: This is the only real big race on the charts this year. Tom Vilsack initially indicates that he is interested in returning to the Governor's mansion after Governor-for-life Terry Branstad announces he will retire permanently, leading to the catchy Des Moines Register headline "Vilsack is Back!" However, Vilsack decides in the fall of 2017 not to run, denying Democrats their most prominent potential candidate. Neither Michael Fitzgerald nor Tom Miller jump into the race, leaving US Rep. Dave Loebsack to throw his hat into the ring after six terms in Congress. He faces Bill Northey, the Ag Secretary for Iowa, who runs after Kim Reynolds elects not to seek the seat and instead seeks IA-2.

In a mediocre year for Democrats in Iowa, Loebsack, despite a top-notch campaign, loses to the popular and likable Northey, who wins 51-48 in a squeaker. R hold.

IA-2: State Rep. Jim Lykam faces outgoing Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds. Lykam runs up a large margin in Davenport while Reynolds focuses on rural turnout. Loebsack's strong margin in his home district helps carry Lykam over the line against Reynolds, making it one of the upset Dem holds of the cycle.

All other House incumbents are reelected, including Chet Culver in IA-3.

IA Legislature: Democrats retake the Iowa State House, picking up two seats to hold a 51-49 majority, and expand their majority in the Senate to 27-23. It is one of the only states in which Democrats gain seats in both legislative Houses.

Missouri

MO Senate: Ann Wagner is the consensus choice to challenge Claire McClaskill. "Air Claire" has no Akinesque luck this time around, and despite a furious and expensive campaign, loses 53-46 to Ann Wagner in one of the most bitter races of the cycle. R+1 and Republicans have gained the Senate 51-49.

MO-2: Michael Talent, son of former US Rep. and Senator Jim Talent, emerges as the top choice to replace Ann Wagner, winning the five-way GOP primary which is tantamount to election in the conservative district. Talent, 28, wins the general election 60-40 and becomes the youngest member of Congress and the first ever Representative born in the 1990s.

All other incumbents cruise to reelection.

MO Legislature: The Senate stays 23-11 GOP, while the GOP regains two seats in the House to go to 112-51.

United States elections, 2018

Louisiana

LA Congress: With no retirements and no interesting races atop the tickets, all incumbents advance easily without a single jungle primary.

United States elections, 2018

Wisconsin

WI Gov: After there were rumors in late 2016 that Scott Walker would seek a third term, Walker eventually decides against it after a second term marred by rising unemployment throughout 2017, fresh investigations into the WIGOP by the DOJ and FEC, and out of his desire to run for President in 2020 without any of the fundraising restrictions he was under in 2016. Walker's Lieutenant Governor Kleefisch decides to run in his stead, defeating Attorney General Brad Schimel, whose claim was that he was considerably more electable than the very conservative and polarizing Kleefisch whereas Schimel was lauded by both parties for his work on child trafficking and domestic violence.

Kleefisch taps Frank Lasee as her running mate and faces former US Senator Russ Feingold, who passed on a race against Johnson in 2016 in order to run for Governor this time around, or as he calls it "my last job." Feingold taps former Senate Minority Leader Chris Larson as his running mate.

Kleefisch, despite inheriting Walker's campaign infrastructure and network of donors, does not inspire the same excitement with the activist base and Feingold focuses his energy on linking up with the Baldwin Senate campaign for turnout. As always in Wisconsin, the result is narrow, but Feingold defeats Kleefisch 52-47 and returns the Governor's mansion to the Democrats. D+1.

WI Row Officers: Besides Chris Larson's obvious election to Lieutenant Governor, Evan Goyke is elected Attorney General to succeed Schimel. All other row officers are reelected.

WI Sen: Tammy Baldwin faces former US Rep. Sean Duffy. The race is initially tight, being rated Tossup/Lean D for much of the cycle, until Baldwin starts to pull away towards the end of September. Baldwin winds up winning 51-48 in a precariously narrow contest. Duffy announces his retirement from politics after the loss.

WI-6: Gordon Hintz, the most vulnerable House member in the country, is defeated in a landslide by Assemblyman Michael Schraa, losing 59-39. R+1.

WI-7: Nick Milroy survives against a local Ashland small business owner, winning 50-49 in a narrow race. D hold.

WI Legislature: Democrats pick up one seat in the State Senate to narrow the margin to 18-15, and lose two seats in the Assembly to put the GOP majority at 58-41.

Minnesota

MN Gov: Lori Swanson is the consensus choice of the DFL establishment and she faces no serious primary challenge. The MN GOP, after flirting with nominating Jeff Johnson again, nominate Erik Paulsen instead when he passes on trying to regain his old seat. Swanson easily defeats Paulsen, initially expected to be a promising statewide candidate, winning 51-43 with a third party spoiler on the ballot like usual.

MN Senate: Republicans nominate State Senator Paul Gazelka as a sacrificial lamb to take on Amy Klobuchar. Klobuchar clobbers Gazelka 55-40, with a third-party candidate taking the rest, to win a third term.

MN-7: Though Republican challenges in the Twin Cities suburbs fizzle out against Schmit and Halvorson Wiklund, they get a consolation prize as third-time nominee Torrey Westrom runs again against Paul Marquart. Marquart, a true wave-baby from 2016, does not have the cachet in the district of a Collin Peterson and Westrom wins easily 53-40, with an independent taking the rest of the vote. R+1.

MN Legislature: Democrats lose six seats in the House to have their advantage narrowed to 74-60, avoiding the large losses they have suffered in earlier midterms.

United States elections, 2018

North Dakota

ND Senate: The only topline race on the ballot, this becomes the focus of both parties. Without Obama atop the ballot, Heitkamp struggles despite cutting a moderate profile in the Senate - she has further poor luck when Kevin Cramer, the most right-wing credible opponent she could face, decides to run for reelection. She instead faces State Treasurer Kelly Schmidt, who bounces Heitkamp 51-49 in a tight-fought race. An attempted indy campaign from 2016 gubernatorial candidate Jim Taylor fails to get enough signatures. R+1 (R Senate majority now at 52-48).

ND Legislature: The Senate stays 29-18 GOP, and Democrats gain one seat in the House to move to 72-22.

South Dakota

SD Gov: A promising race here - Kristi Noem and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin both decide to seek the Governor's mansion as Dennis Daugaard is termed out of office. The race is tight for much of summer, with SHS even leading in several polls, before South Dakota's (Atlas) blue tinge reverts to norm in the fall as Noem pulls ever-so-slightly ahead. In a surprisingly tight result, Noem defeats SHS 51-48, one of the narrowest results in South Dakota in decades.

SD At Large: Attorney General Marty Jackley is elected to the seat in a landslide after Brendan Johnson decides not to run.

SD Legislature: Republicans win one seat in the House to expand their majority to 56-14, and in the Senate Democrats gain another seat yet again to go to 26-9.

United States elections, 2018

Nebraska

NE Sen: Deb Fischer faces only Senator Sara Howard of Omaha and cruises to a 60-39 win.

NE Gov: The lone top-ticket race of any interest. Due to an aggressively right-wing record a la Sam Brownback, Pete Ricketts comes under scrutiny and is thought vulnerable early in the year. However, there is no Democrat of sufficient caliber to reasonably challenge him, and so he cruises against former State Senator Jeremy Nordquist of Omaha, winning 54-45. Both Democratic candidates for major races in Nebraska this year are born after 1980, a fact which is not lost on anyone. Commentators suggest Nordquist's run is designed to set up a future campaign for NE-2. Speaking of which...

NE-2: Omaha Mayor Jean Stothert narrowly defeats Rep. Brad Ashford 52-47 to pick up this seat for Republicans once again. R+1.

Kansas

KS Gov: Alarm bells go off for the national GOP when polarizing SOS Kris Kobach is nominated as Governor out of a vicious primary also featuring Mike Pompeo. Democrats nominate Paul Davis again, and the campaign looks promising into the final weeks. However, Kobach avoids any major gaffes and Kansas' conservative nature carries him over the finish line, 50-48, much narrower than he would have hoped.

KS-01: (Just as an aside here, in 2016 I had someone other than Garrett Love winning this seat. That is incorrect. Garrett Love is the US Rep. for Kansas' 1st Congressional District since 2017.)

KS-04: With Pompeo trying and failing to run for Governor, State Sen. Mike Petersen of Wichita is easily elected here in his stead, defeating Todd Tiahrt's quixotic attempt to once again return to Congress.

Kansas Legislature: Moderate Republicans continue their revolt, winning primaries against the ultraconservatives who defeated them in the Brownback purges of the early 2010s. Democrats in turn lose two seats in the Senate and three in the House, though the ideological needle in both houses moves back towards the center.

That's too bad about NE-2, but to be expected with Ashford. We need Festersen in that seat to hold it.

I actually have big things planned for Nordquist instead of Festersen, but yes. NE-2 is trending D as Omaha continues to grow rapidly, but it'll probably be the mid-2020s before this seat leans D.

Are you planning on looking into redistricting when you get to the early 2020's? Democrats are getting some good results on Governor races in states they need to get split control to push the map making to the courts.

Todd Rokita is a Tea Party guy.

Is he? Shoot. He seems pretty conservative from a Wikipedia glance, but he seemed less so than Stutzman. I'm guessing Rokita would still be a primary favorite over somebody like Ballard, though?

He was a Tea Party endorsed candidate but wasn't one of the bigger names. A little bit by not much. He did support Bohner for speaker while Stutzman supported Daniel Webster. I could see Stutzman endorsing Rokita over Ballard. I'd also have Heath VanAtter to replace Rokita rather than Truitt but I'll leave that one alone.

I followed this while I was lurking. Keep it up!

I think I'll still have Rokita be the Senator anyways. He'd likely win over Ballard in a primary, Donnelly seems like he's dead meat and that way Indiana's two Senators can be collectively referred to as "the Todds."

United States elections, 2018

Oklahoma

OK Gov: The main event. Todd Lamb passes on the race (rumored to be eyeing 2020 instead) and sets up a primary between three-term Congressman Jim Bridenstine, OKC Mayor Mick Cornett, and former House Speaker and Senate candidate TW Shannon. All three candidates represent different parts of the state, and in heavily Republican Oklahoma winning this primary is tantamount to election - particularly after Brad Henry and Dan Boren pass on the race.

Bridenstine, an ardent and polarizing figure even in his home state, splits off much of the conservative vote that Shannon needs. Cornett, meanwhile, is endorsed by both outgoing Gov. Fallin and Senator Jim Lankford and is supported by the OKC business community. Cornett heads to a runoff with Bridenstine after none of the candidates clear 50%, though Cornett had a decisive lead in the primary. Despite many pundits thinking that Shannon's conservative support might skew towards Bridenstine in the runoff, Cornett wins 55-45 and is the Republican nominee. He faces former US Representative, Army Undersecretary and 2004 Senate nominee Brad Carson. Despite the conservadem Carson being in the race, Cornett's moderate profile and lauded stewardship of Oklahoma City powers him to a 56-43 victory. Surprisingly enough, Carson's best margins are in the Tulsa and Little Dixie regions, where he's from.

OK-1: Bridenstine's resignation throws open this Tulsa-based seat. Tulsa's Democratic Mayor, former State Senator and OU Student President Jabar Shumate, declines to run, leaving Democrats without any major candidate to take the reigns here. State Rep. David Brumbaugh runs for the GOP and crushes Democrat Kevin Matthews 61-39.

OK-2: Markwayne Mullin fulfills his promise to only serve three terms, declaring in a statement that he will return to his family business and indicating that he has no plans to ever return to politics. Some Democrats clamor for Dan Boren to return, but Boren signals he has no interest in returning to DC, effectively ceding the race to Republicans. State Senator and former Coburn staffer Josh Brecheen, with major agricultural lobby ties in this rural district, wins the Republican primary against two businessmen. He faces former Democratic Senate leader Charles Wyrick, whom he defeats by a surprisingly narrow 54-45 margin. Wyrick is seen to benefit from the Carson campaign's presence in the district.

OK Legislature: Republicans gain one seat in the Senate to push their advantage to 41-7, but Democrats gain two house seats to narrow the GOP advantage to 68-33.

United States elections, 2018

Texas

TX Gov: Julian Castro, expected for years to challenge Greg Abbott here, declines to run, surprising many Democrats. Dallas Mayor Mike Rawlings jumps in to run instead, and despite early polls showing a tight race after the severe drought and slight rise in Texas' unemployment rate, Abbott wins 56-43.

TX Sen: Joaquin Castro becomes the Castro brother to run, choosing to aim for polarizing, love-him-or-hate-him Ted Cruz. Cruz, despite having been a Presidential nominee just two years earlier, earns serious flack from the moderate wing of the party, which has grown frustrated with his antics and national groups start to coalesce around trying to find a candidate to go toe-to-toe with Cruz. The settle on Mike McCaul, himself a conservative but not a polarizing figure a la Cruz, and as the wealthiest member of the House has the ability to self-fund most of his campaign. McCaul agrees to run despite endorsing Cruz for President two years earlier and the primary heats up, with no other moderates jumping in lest they split the vote and allow Cruz to avoid a runoff.

Cruz, whose more combative brand of conservatism has swept up much of the Texas GOP, relies on his reliable grassroots fundraising sources to raise the funds he needs to keep up with McCaul, who positions himself as a "conservative with the ability to achieve things." McCaul accuses Cruz of self-promotion over trying to actually pass conservative legislation, and in one debate accuses Cruz of having singlehandedly given control of Congress back to Democrats in 2016. Cruz's superior skills as a debater and vast political network, particularly from out of state figures, buoys him and he survives the election 51-49.

After the taxing primary, there are murmurs of Cruz's vulnerability in the general. Joaquin Castro, however, runs a fairly meek campaign that fails to exploit any of the weaknesses of his opponent and he misreads the Democratic advantage with Texas Hispanics, who tend to skew more conservative, and Cruz leads most polls by 8-10 points from September on. Cruz defeats Castro 53-46, which by Texas Democratic standards is one of their best performances in generations and in fact overperforms the polls.

TX-3: Sam Johnson, the oldest member of the House, decides to retire after nearly thirty years in Congress. In his very conservative district, State Senator Van Taylor cruises to election to succeed him.

TX-10: McCaul is succeeded by Lois Kolkhorst, a State Senator from Katy.

All other incumbents are reelected.

TX Legislature: Senate remains 21-10, while GOP gains two seats in the House to go to 100-50.

I sure am! I've drawn a few maps in DRA, so I'll have to post those.

United States elections, 2018

New Mexico

NM Gov: Dianna Duran runs for the GOP to replace the term-limited Susana Martinez. Martinez's popularity does not rub off on Duran, who is defeated by popular State Attorney General Hector Balderas 55-44 to hand the Governor's mansion and full control of State Government back to Democrats.

NM Sen: John Sanchez's liabilities as a candidate come through early and often, to the point that national Republicans try to recruit Martinez to run. Martinez, uninterested in leaving the state and her disabled sister behind, declines. Sanchez is challenged 41-year old State Auditor Tim Keller, who runs an aggressive and optimistic campaign against Sanchez, who struggles to stay on message and is viewed as too close to the Tea Party for the left-leaning state. In the only Democratic gain of the night, Keller defeats Sanchez 52-47. D+1 (the GOP majority has now been narrowed to 51-49).

United States elections, 2018

Wyoming

WY-Gov: With Matt Mead term-limited and neither Barrasso nor Enzi showing any signs of retiring soon, US Rep. Cynthia Lummis announces a run for Governor and her retirement from national politics after a decade in Congress. Lummis clears the primary of serious candidates, with Liz Cheney opting not to run, and cruises to an easy electoral win in November to become the first female Governor of Wyoming.

WY-At Large: With Lummis retiring, she is instead replaced with a different Cynthia, State Auditor Cynthia Cloud, is elected to replace her in an easy R hold.

Colorado

CO-Gov: GOP State Treasurer Walker Stapleton enters the race for Governor. Regarded as a moderate in a party often dominated by its conservative, rural wing, Stapleton is viewed as one of the few Republicans capable of uniting the fractious party and appealing to the booming, affluent and relatively centrist Denver suburbs. Democrats nominate openly gay former Speaker of the Colorado House Mark Ferrandino, a Denver legislator with a background in fiscal analytics who runs as the kind of fiscally moderate, socially liberal Democrat tailored perfectly to win Greater Denver.

Displeased by the lack of a true conservative in the field, there are rumbles about a conservative third party challenge, led once again by Tom Tancredo. However, Tancredo declines a third gubernatorial bid as Stapleton attracts RGA support and cash. In the general, both candidates run to the center, trying to appeal to swingy Colorado suburbs. Despite the strong economy in the state and its rapid growth, voters narrowly favor a change in power after 12 years of Democratic control of the Governor's mansion and in one of the few - and narrow - Republican pickups, Walker Stapleton wins 49-47 over Ferrandino, with a third party self-funding candidate taking the rest. R+1.

CO-3: Joseph Garcia is reelected in this R-leaning district, narrowly winning 49-48. D hold.

CO-6: Romanoff wins over Cynthia Coffman, who runs to try to reclaim her husband's old seat, 50-49. D hold.

CO Legislature: Democrats expand their Senate majority by winning back one of the seats lost in 2014 to go to 19-16 advantage, and lose one seat in the House to go to 37-28. Incoming governor Stapleton, remarking in his victory speech, says of the results, "I look forward to working with my Democratic friends and colleagues in the months and years ahead to forge solutions for all Coloradans."

Cynthia Lummis would be Wyoming's second female governor. Nellie Tayloe Ross was the first female governor of Wyoming elected in 1925. She was also america's first female governor.

You are correct. A little research would have helped me here.

United States elections, 2018

Montana

MT Sen: Jon Tester faces US Rep. Ryan Zinke. At the beginning of the cycle, Zinke, an ex-Navy SEAL, is thought of as one of the best recruits. However, his controversial statements on Benghazi and US foreign policy comes across as overly neoconservative in the libertarianish state and he bombs in his last debate with Tester. Tester runs a disciplined, savvy campaign and with a third-party candidate in the race knocks off Zinke in one of the biggest surprise Democratic holds of the cycle 49-45-4. D hold.

MT At Large: With Zinke retiring, the At Large seat is up for grabs. Secretary of State Bryce Bennett jumps into the race only two years after attaining his last seat and actually does okay at first, briefly holding even in polls with GOP nominee Chas Vincent. However, Vincent pulls away over the course of the fall and is elected as the US Rep. for Montana 56-44. R hold.

MT Legislature: Democrats pick up one Senate seat to go to 26-24, a narrow majority for the GOP. Several moderate GOP Senators stage a palace coup and topple the right-wing party leadership in the Senate. Republicans gain one seat in the Montana House to shift their majority to 56-44.

Idaho

ID Gov: Butch Otter finally retires, and Lt. Gov. Brad Little signals no intention to run. Out of a wide-open field, State Controller Brandon D. Woolf wins the GOP primary, tantamount to election in Idaho. He cruises to a 67-30 win over a Sandpoint businessman and two independent candidates, promising to run a cleaner, more transparent government than Otter had before him.

Both Congressmen are reelected and there is no net change in either chamber of the Legislature.

Utah

UT Sen: Orrin Hatch retires, triggering a primary. Dan Liljenquist becomes the frontrunner for conservatives after former Senator Mike Lee declines a run, and none of the Congressional delegation jumps in. Jon Huntsman, Jr. comes out of nowhere with a run, however, and his fortune and name recognition in his home state carries him to a narrow upset win over Liljenquist, who was thought to be the favorite with the conservative electorate. With Huntsman still popular with many moderates and Democrats, Democrats suspend their campaign backing a no-name State Rep. and Huntsman cruises to a 77-22 win, the biggest margin in the country.

UT Congress: The full delegation is returned to Congress.

UT Legislature: No change in Senate, Republicans pick up one seat in House to go to 59-16.

(Sorry for the delay in updating, been busy with other things/projects)

United States elections, 2018

Nevada

NV-Gov: Likable, moderate Governor Mark Hutchinson, following his mentor Brian Sandoval's political script and strategy, is in perfect position to win a second term. Democrats, remembering the 2014 wipeout debacle, nominate former AG Catherine Cortez Masto to run. It is a competitive election, but Nevada's R-leaning midterm electorate and Hutchinson's moderate streak carry him over the finish line 52-47. R hold.

NV-Sen: Dean Heller faces Democratic US Rep. Dina Titus from Las Vegas, who runs what initially appears to be a very competitive campaign. Heller moves to the middle, emphasizes his work on the Sandoval immigration bill - very popular in Nevada - and pledges that his next term will be his last. In one of the narrowest elections of the cycle, Heller hangs on in one of the few Democratic pickup opportunities 50-47, with a Libertarian spoiler siphoning votes from each. Heller narrowly wins the Hispanic vote, which is not lost on anyone.

NV Row Officers: Adam Laxalt, the "accidental Attorney General," is defeated in a rematch with Ross Miller, who elects to seek that office rather than challenge the popular Heller. All other row officers are narrowly reelected.

NV-1: In a very Democratic district that is only growing more so, 38-year old State Senator Ruben Kihuen is elected as the next Congressman from this district.

NV Legislature: Democrats pick up the Senate seat lost in 2014 to go to 12-9 in the Nevada Senate and gain two seats in the House to go to 26-16.

Woo!!!!!

We have a Ruben Kihuen fan in the house!

United States elections, 2018

Florida

FL-Gov: Rubio, with an eye on 2020, does not run for Governor, leaving Adam Putnam and Jeff Atwater to duke it out in the primaries. Putnam advances after a hard-fought primary campaign. Democrats coalesce early around Gwen Graham, who taps Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer as her running mate to create a "super-ticket" and remove her most potent potential challenger. Bob Buckhorn takes over as Florida Democratic Chairman rather than try to run for another elective office and sets about disciplining the notoriously cruddy party.

Though Putnam starts out with an advantage, Graham is buoyed by voter fatigue after 20 years of GOP rule and several high-profile scandals from the Rick Scott administration. Putnam leads for much of the spring, but the race becomes a toss-up late in late August and Graham emphasizes her North Florida roots, her popular ex-Governor/Senator father Bob and runs as a centrist pragmatist. In the Democrats' biggest 2018 pickup, they claim the Florida Governorship for the first time in two decades with Graham defeating Putnam 49-47, with a third-party candidate taking the rest of the vote. D+1.

FL-Sen: Bill Nelson retires, as was widely expected, creating a prime pickup opportunity for Republicans. Ron DeSantis runs against State Senator Jeff Brandes in a conservative vs. moderate race, with Tom Rooney electing to sit out and focus on rising through the ranks in the House. DeSantis defeats Brandes in the primary and advances to face Patrick Murphy, the consensus Democratic choice who faced little to no serious opposition in the primary. The very right-wing DeSantis finds it a hard slog against Murphy, who as a former Republican and moderate figure and energetic campaign operation has the advantage for most of the cycle. Murphy wins by a surprisingly comfortable 53-46 margin over DeSantis, defeating a Republican rising star and entering the conversation of future Democratic (think 2024/2028) national candidates.

FL-02: Graham vacating her seat does not bode well for Democrats downballot - former State Rep. Alan Williams of Tallahassee is unable to defeat Halsey Beshears, who runs to try to seize the seat he was unable to gain in 2016. R+1.

FL-06: With DeSantis retiring, the winner of a wide-open Republican primary is State Rep. Travis Hutson, who wins in a landslide in the general in the safe R district. R hold.

FL-07: In a rematch from two years earlier, this time GOP candidate Jason Brodeur defeats US Rep. Randolph Bracy in one of the GOP's best nationwide pickup opportunities. R+1.

FL-13: David Jolly tries to win his old seat back, but is dispatched by Charlie Justice 51-47. D hold.

FL-18: With Patrick Murphy retiring, Democrats fail to field a candidate nearly as competitive as the likable, moderate Murphy. GOP State Sen. Joe Negron picks up this seat with disheartening ease. R+1.

FL-26: Carlos Curbelo elects not to pursue his old seat, and Dwight Bullard cruises to a surprisingly comfortable reelection in what should have been a potential GOP pickup.

Florida Row Officers: Democratic victories at the top of the ticket do not necessarily reflect downballot. Bill Galvano is elected Attorney General of Florida, Greg Evers is elected Agriculture Commissioner and Carlos Curbelo is elected Chief Financial Officer.

Florida Legislature: The Senate remains 23-17, with no gains on either side. In the House, Republicans pick up four seats lost in 2016 to go to 74-46.

United States elections, 2018

Arizona

AZ-Gov: Greg Stanton challenges incumbent Doug Ducey. Despite indications early in 2018 that the very conservative Ducey might be vulnerable, Stanton runs a surprisingly dull campaign and Ducey moves to the middle over the course of the last year of his first term. Despite being viewed as a tossup for much of the race, Ducey pulls ahead late in the fall despite a mediocre economy nationwide and a full-blown recession in Arizona and Stanton is defeated 54-45.

AZ-Sen: Jeff Flake faces talk show host Laura Ingraham in the primary, with Ingraham running against Flake for his perceived heresies on immigration and other issues where he has sought consensus with Democrats. Flake is hurt in some Republican quarters when Vice President Heinrich refers to him as "my friend Jeff." However, Flake recovers by the late primary in August to defeat Ingraham by a surprisingly comfortable 56-40 margin, with some gadfly candidates taking the rest of the vote. Flake cruises to reelection against former Tempe Mayor Neil Giuliano, who suspends most campaign activities after Flake wins in the primary (Democratic investment in this race was mostly contingent on Ingraham winning the primary).

AZ House: All incumbents elected, with Democratic attempts to pick up AZ-02 and GOP attempts to grab AZ-01 and AZ-09 failing.

United States elections, 2018

Washington

WA-Sen: Maria Cantwell decides to seek a fourth (and what she promises is final) term in office. The best potential Republican nominee, Cathy McMorris-Rodgers, elects not to run to absolutely nobody's surprise. Instead, Republicans are left with running former US Rep. Jamie Herrera Beutler, who decides not to seek her old seat. Cantwell faces her best opponent in years, but still wins 56-44, likely ending the career of the once-promising Herrera Beutler and securing her seat for another six years.

WA-3: State Senator Ann Rivers challenges US Rep. Tim Leavitt. It is expected to be a close race in the right-leaning suburban/rural district, but despite Rivers' advantage early in the campaign Leavitt manages to pull through and win 52-48, an improvement on his pickup from two years earlier.

WA-8: Mark Mullet is reelected in this once-Republican district over Rep. Brad Hawkins as even the Seattle outer suburbs continue their D trend. D hold.

WA Legislature: Democrats pick up one seat in the Senate to go to 28-21, and Republicans pick up two seats in the House to go to 57-41.

United States elections, 2018

Oregon

OR-Gov: Incumbent Kate Brown is comfortably reelected to a full term of her own right over State Sen. Brian Boquist, 56-43, with the Kitzhaber scandal having faded from memory by this point.

OR-3: Earl Blumenauer retires after over two decades in Congress, leaving a wide-open Democratic primary for his open seat. House Speaker Tina Kotek, with the most resources and establishment support in the primary, wins the primary and cruises to election nearly uncontested in Oregon's most liberal district to become the state's first openly lesbian Congresswoman.

OR Legislature: In the Senate, Democrats maintain their 18-12 advantage and lose one seat in the House to drop to a still-commanding 36-24.

United States elections, 2018

California

CA-Gov: Gavin Newsom emerges out of the top two to face Kevin Faulconer in one of the best matchups in California in years. Though there are initially concerns about deflated enthusiasm on the part of partisans on both sides with two such moderate candidates, Democrats come home in the end and Newsom defeats the impressive Faulconer 54-46.

CA-Sen: DiFi retires and a free-for-all emerges, with Alex Padilla advancing to face former State Senator Mark Leno. No US Reps. enter the race, although Eric Swalwell nearly jumps in. In an all-D general election (Leno edged out the nearest Republican with only 1,200 votes), Padilla, the more centrist option and the one from southern CA, handily defeats the liberal Leno 62-38, with many Republicans voting for Padilla rather than voting blank and some outside liberal groups, despite supporting Padilla in the past, running ads against him as the "GOP's preferred Democrat."

CA-Sen (special): To reaffirm Eric Garcetti as Senator, Garcetti defeats former US Rep. Jeff Denham 56-44 in a surprisingly close race. Denham announces his retirement from politics afterwards.

CA-Row Officers: Ben Allen is elected Attorney General after Kamala Harris' replacement opts not to seek a second term. Dave Jones is elected Lieutenant Governor, John Chiang is reelected as Treasurer while Betty Yee is reelected as Controller. For open seats of Secretary of Public Instruction and Secretary of State, Tony Mendoza and 37-year old Matt Dababneh are elected. For State Insurance Commissioner, term-limited State Assembly Speaker and former social worker Susan Eggman is elected to become the first openly gay statewide office holder in California history.

CA-7: A Republican businessman becomes the third straight politician to fail to unseat Ami Bera, who wins 52-48 in his evenly-split district.

CA-10: Cathleen Gagliani is initially thought safe when Denham announces his run in the Senate special against Garcetti, but scandals over expenses, issues with constituent services and tardiness and missed votes in Congress add to her already-lingering residency controversies from two years earlier. In a surprisingly easy win, Republican Senator Anthony Cannella defeats Gagliani 53-47. R+1.

CA-16: Jim Costa's luck runs out in his R-trending district as former Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin seeks a rematch and this time wins over the hapless, tired Costa 51-49. The narrow margin of victory and recognition that Costa's time had run out make Swearengin the most vulnerable new Republican in California. R+1.

CA-24: Lois Capps retires after twenty years in Congress after suffering a severe stroke in late 2017 that incapacitates her. State Rep. Das Williams is elected to replace her over State Rep. Katcho Achadjian, 55-45.

CA-25: The never-ending adventure/saga of the three men who really, really want to represent CA-25: US Rep. Lee Rogers is challenged by both his opponents from the last two elections, former US Rep. Steve Knight and Tony Strickland. Strickland finally advances to the top two over the polarizing Knight and defeats Rogers 54-46. R+1.

CA-39: The easiest pickup for Republicans in the country comes as Ed Royce comes back to defeat "the accidental Congresswoman," former racecar driver Ashley Force Hood, no. 2 on Roll Call's Most Vulnerable list. Despite cutting a moderate profile and flying back to LA every weekend for constituent outreach, Force Hood is taken down 58-42 by Royce, a surprisingly large margin for the incumbent freshman. R+1.

California Legislature: It is not all bad news for Democrats, despite losing four House seats statewide. Republicans only net one Assembly seat for a total change to 57-23 in favor of Democrats, and the Senate remains 27-13, a still-commanding majority in both chambers.

United States elections, 2018

Hawai'i

HI-Governor: David Ige is reelected in a 60-40 landslide over Mufi Hanneman, who has now bit the bullet and gone fully Republican.

HI-Sen: Mazie Hirono cruises to a 66-30-3 win over Duke Aiona and an independent Navy officer to win a second term with ease.

Both Reps are easily reelected.

No change in composition in the Hawaii Legislature.

Alaska

AK-Gov: Bill Walker, once again on a fusion ticket with Democrats, wins a second term after a competent, uncontroversial first term in which he focused on priorities from both parties and he defeats Mead Treadwell 53-47.

AK-At Large: A special election is pegged for January to elect late Rep. Don Young's successor. Lance Pruitt is appointed to the seat, and he is heavily favored to win the seat outright. Some older AK Republicans, such as Treadwell, the "other" Dan Sullivan, and Sean Parnell grate at not being appointed, and some Democrats are furious that Walker doesn't tap one of his political allies, but Walker responds in a statement that, "Don Young was a Republican, the people voted for a Republican when they elected him, and I will appoint a Republican to replace him." He also notes that Pruitt's age can help Alaska gain back some of the clout lost with Young's sudden death and the loss of Ted Stevens a decade earlier.

AK Legislature: Republicans gain two seats in the Assembly and one seat in the Senate.

A bit late for this, but after much thought and consideration I determined that Colombia simply do not have the talent to defeat Germany in an extra-time game in the World Cup in Europe. From here on out, assume Germany won this game and that Colombia came heartbreakingly close to a major international title in Moscow two years in a row.

After the 2018 elections, here are the freshman House classes of the 116th Congress for the Republicans and the Democrats:

Republicans:

AK-AL: Lance Pruitt (appointed)
CA-10: Anthony Cannella*
CA-16: Ashley Swearengin*
CA-25: Tony Strickland*
CA-39: Ed Royce*
DE-AL: Brian Pettyjohn*
FL-2: Halsey Beshears*
FL-7: Jason Brodeur*
FL-18: Joe Negron*
GA-10: Mike Collins
GA-14: John Deffenbaugh
IL-10: Bob Dold*
IL-12: Mike Bost*
IN-4: Randy Truitt
KS-4: Mike Petersen
MD-6: David Brinkley*
MI-7: Tim Walberg*
MI-11: David Trott*
MN-7: Torrey Westrom*
MO-2: Mike Talent
MT-AL: Chas Vincent
NE-2: Jean Stothert*
NY-2: Phillip Boyle
NY-19: Peter Lopez*
NY-22: Richard Hanna*
OH-8: Chris Widener
OH-10: Mike Turner*
OK-1: Dave Brumbaugh
OK-2: Josh Brecheen
PA-6: Ryan Costello*
SC-5: Greg Gregory
SD-AL: Marty Jackley
TX-3: Van Taylor
TX-10: Lois Kolkhorst
VA-2: Will Sessoms
WI-6: Michael Schraa*
WV-3: Daniel Hall
WY-AL: Cynthia Cloud

Democrats:

CA-24: Das Williams
IA-2: Jim Lykam
IL-1: Kwame Raoul
MD-4: Anthony Muse
MD-6: Kumar Barve
ME-1: Hannah Pingree
MI-9: Steve Bieda
NC-4: Valerie Foushee
NC-12: Malcolm Graham
NV-1: Ruben Kihuen
OR-3: Tina Kotek

Republicans have picked up 20 seats from Democrats to seize a 227-208 majority in the House of Representatives, a mirror image of the Democratic majority from the 115th Congress.

Meet your Senate freshman class of 2018 (116th Congress):

Republicans:

William Haslam (TN)
Jon Huntsman (UT)
Evan Jenkins (WV)*
Todd Rokita (IN)*
Kelly Schmidt (ND)*
Ann Wagner (MO)*

Democrats:

John Carney (DE)
Timothy Keller (NM)*
Patrick Murphy (FL)
Alex Padilla (CA)
Peter Shumlin (VT)*
Christopher Van Hollen (MD)

Democrats pick up one independent (who caucused with them, so no net gain there) and one Republican seat to offset the 4 seats won by Republicans. The GOP has retaken the Senate with a precariously narrow 51-49 majority for the 116th Congress.

The new governors, class of 2018:

Maine: Chellie Pingree, Democrat*
Vermont: Phil Scott, Republican*
Connecticut: William Tong, Democrat
New York: Preet Bharara, Democrat
Maryland: John Delaney, Democrat*
South Carolina: Mick Mulvaney, Republican
Georgia: Jason Carter, Democrat*
Florida: Gwen Graham, Democrat*
Alabama: Luther Strange, Republican
Tennessee: Bob Corker, Republican
Ohio: Jon Husted, Republican
Michigan: Gretchen Whitmer, Democrat*
Illinois: Tom Dart, Democrat*
Iowa: Bill Northey, Republican
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold, Democrat*
Minnesota: Lori Swanson, Democrat
South Dakota: Kristi Noem, Republican
Kansas: Kris Kobach, Republican
Oklahoma: Mick Cornett
Arkansas: Tim Griffin, Republican
New Mexico: Hector Balderas, Democrat*
Colorado: Walker Stapleton, Republican*
Wyoming: Cynthia Lummis, Republican
California: Gavin Newsom, Democrat

With these results, Republicans now hold 24 Governorships, Democrats hold 25, and there is one Independent governor. Many more states now also have split control, with either a Democrat Governor facing a Republican legislature or vice versa.

Great updates! I can't wait for 2020.

No way Vermont gets a Republican governor but Connecticut doesn't, but Florida and Georgia go Democrat, especially in a Dem midterm year.

Given the individual unique circumstances of each governor race, it could be entirely plausible

I don't know of any Phil Scott-caliber candidate in Connecticut. Besides, if Jim Douglas can win in 2006 and 2008, then the popular and competent Scott could win in a neutral-to-lean-GOP year like 2018 in this TL.

I feel like Connecticut will follow the example of Oregon and Washington - nearly elect GOP Governors, but won't.

Some quick analysis of the 2018 electoral results:

Good for Republicans, but not as good as they wanted: Republicans achieved their primary goal - to make Kevin McCarthy Speaker of the House and John Thune Senate Majority Leader. They took back both houses of Congress two years after losing them, which was the explicit goal from the beginning. However, the NRCC, led by Pete Roskam, made reaching 240 seats its goal. By only picking up 20 seats to reach 227, it came nowhere near its goal and makes for a very tenuous majority, one in which conservatives, primarily in the South, can and will cause Speaker McCarthy considerable headache. It was even more frustrating in the Senate, where Republicans picked off three red (Atlas blue)-state Senators in IN, MO and ND and took an open seat in WV, but fumbled away NM with an incompetent incumbent and failed to pick up the open seat in Florida and came heartbreakingly close to defeating Democratic incumbents in MT, PA, OH and VA. The Democrats protected the incumbents they knew they absolutely could not lose and thus kept the incoming Republican majority at only 51-49, one of the most tenuous in decades.

Rise of the Moderates: The good news for McCarthy and Thune, two men who want to prove that the GOP can govern after a frustrating 10-year period starting with the 2008 landslide loss, is that many of the freshman Republicans coming in are people with executive or statewide experience, or who are known as politicians interested in getting to work. Replacing staunch conservatives like Mick Mulvaney, Jim Bridenstine, Markwayne Mullin, Ryan Zinke, Tom Graves and Jody Hice will only serve to help leadership, and replacing Democratic votes with new GOP faces like David Brinkley, Brian Pettyjohn, Ashley Swearengin and Anthony Cannella only helps bolster the ranks of the center-right of the party.

The silver lining for Democrats: The governor's races bode well for redistricting, giving Democrats hope that a strong year in 2020 can lead to success in 2022 to flip the house back and give Xavier Becerra the Speaker's gavel once again. Keeping Pennsylvania and New York while picking up Maine, Georgia (by, as most Democrats admit, a lucky stroke of Hice being the opposing candidate), Florida, Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan will help the map. However, most Dems are quick to admit that losing Ohio hurts tremendously moving into the next decade and that results in Iowa, Colorado and Nevada are unhelpful with an eye on redistricting, even though all three produce divided government.

Hoping for Rand Paul in 2020!

Leadership teams for the 116th Congress:

House:

Speaker of the House: Kevin McCarthy, R-CA, is easily elected as leader of the House GOP caucus.
House Majority Leader: Cathy McMorris-Rodgers, R-WA (and KingSweden's Congresswoman) leapfrogs Steve Scalise, who lacks the support caucus-wide to leave his Whip post in a party desiring to have a prominent female figure to juxtapose against Hillary Clinton. CMR beats out Jeb Hensarling, who also wants the position.
House Majority Whip: Steve Scalise, R-LA, who as mentioned above stays in the Whip slot he has held since 2014 amid a caucus with an emboldened new moderate wing.
Republican Caucus Chair: Tom Price, a figure widely respected by House conservatives, finally gets his chance to enter leadership after beating out Mark Meadows and Pete Roskam for the slot.
Republican Caucus Vice-Chair: Luke Messer, R-IN, regarded as a rising star who can bridge the gap between the conservative wing and leadership, is tapped to be Price's protege and right-hand-man.
Chief Deputy Whip: Patrick McHenry, R-NC, an ally of both McCarthy and Scalise, stays in this plum slot.
Policy Committee Chair: Lynn Jenkins, R-KS, keeps her spot in leadership.
NRCC Chair: With Pete Roskam seeking Caucus Chair after his success in leading the Republicans back to the majority, the position for NRCC Chairman is open. With his proximity to Florida donors, Tom Rooney, R-FL, is tapped to head the NRCC over Texas Rep. Brian Babin, who was known to be hoping to attain the spot.
NRCC Vice Chair: Chris Collins, R-NY, tapped to connect Republicans to well-heeled Northeastern donors.

House Minority Leader: Xavier Becerra, D-CA, keeps his spot after House leadership keeps losses to a relative minimum and what is regarded as a successful 115th Congress under his Speakership.
House Minority Whip: Joseph Crowley, D-NY, sticks under under similar auspices.
Democratic Caucus Chair: Jared Polis, D-CO, replaces Donna Edwards following her retirement from Congress in her failed Senatorial run. He becomes the first openly gay person to enter Congressional leadership in history.
Democratic Caucus Vice-Chair: Terri Sewell, D-AL, to add a black and female voice to the leadership team, and add a member from the Deep South.
Chief Deputy Whip: Tom Bakk, D-MN, to add a Midwesterner from a white, working-class district that is moderately Democratic.
House Democratic Policy Chair: A new role created by Becerra and Crowley to keep the promising Ben Ray Lujan in leadership.
DCCC: Joseph Kennedy III, D-MA, takes over for Ben Ray Lujan, and former DCCC Chair Steve Israel becomes Senior Adviser to the DCCC.
DCCC Vice Chair: Evan Low, D-CA, adding somebody with connections to Silicon Valley to leadership and who is both gay and Asian.

Senate:

Senate Majority Leader: John Thune, R-SD, making this the first time that the same Senate seat has produced two majority leaders from opposite parties.
Senate Majority Whip: John Barrasso, R-WY, after Cornyn announces his intention to leave leadership and signals that he might retire in 2020. Barrasso, with broad support in the party, easily steps up to take the spot.
Republican Caucus Chair: Roger Wicker, to keep a Deep South Senator in leadership but keep rabble-rousers like Jeff Sessions out.
Republican Caucus Co-Chair: Jerry Moran, R-KS, same as last Congress.
Republican Policy Chair: Shelley Moore Capito, R-WV, to add a well-regarded moderate woman to leadership and indicating the Thune majority's intention to move to the center.
NRSC Chair: Marco Rubio decides not to maintain the chairmanship for a second term, in anticipation of a run for President in 2020. Instead, Thune taps Dean Heller, R-NV, bringing another Westerner aboard. NRSC Vice Chair goes to Tim Scott, R-SC, to add another Southern figure to the team.

Senate Minority Leader/Caucus Chairman: Chuck Schumer, D-NY, maintains the confidence of his caucus and stays on for another term after Democrats nearly hold the Senate (though they also nearly lost it by even more seats).
Senate Minority Whip: Patty Murray, D-WA, after Dick Durbin decides against staying in leadership (a clear signal he intends to retire). Murray beats out Tim Kaine for the spot.
Senate Minority Chief Deputy Whip: Michael Bennet, D-CO, this new position is made separate from Vice-Chair to add more diverse voices to the Senate leadership.
Democratic Caucus Vice-Chair: Amy Klobuchar, D-MN, adding another woman to a high-ranking leadership post after Klobuchar wins yet another reelection in a breeze.
Democratic Caucus Secretary: Bob Casey, D-PA, to bring a moderate voice into the leadership from outside the ranks of the previous leadership team.
Democratic Caucus Deputy Secretary: Chris Murphy, D-CT, a new position created to beef up the leadership team.
Democratic Policy Committee Chair: Elizabeth Warren, D-MA, stays in this spot.
Democratic Chair of Steering and Outreach: Jeff Merkley, D-OR, stays in this spot once again.
DSCC Chair: Jon Tester, D-MT, after his successful stewardship of the office in the 2016 landslide, is given this role again. For Vice Chair of DSCC, he taps Kirsten Gillibrand, D-NY, as his chief fundraiser and outreach coordinator to liberal groups and donors.

November 2018: A rough week for President Clinton gets worse, as two days after Democrats' poor midterm showing, an unemployed, disgruntled Syrian refugee sets off a backpack bomb on a New York subway during rush hour in Midtown. It is the first terrorist attack in the United States since the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing. Four people are killed in addition to the bomber and over thirty wounded, though by some miracle the train does not derail, since the bomb was poorly assembled and only part of its explosive payload detonated. Clinton, along with Senators Schumer and Gillibrand, Governor Cuomo and Governor-elect Preet Bharara, and Mayor de Blasio, speak at a vigil in Central Park attended by over 200,000 people. After much investigation, the man is found to have no formal connection to any overseas terror groups and it is described as a "lone-wolf attack" by the FBI, CIA and DHS, though conspiracy theories emerge on the fringes of the right that there is a cover-up of IS or al-Qaeda involvement.

More bad news for the administration as revised figures show that the economy contracted for the first time in four years in Q3 of 2018, and that the economy is likely in recession with economic growth not expected to do much more in Q4. The unemployment rate hovers around 7% with the pre-election jobs report showing only 77,000 new jobs created. Clinton's approval rating, post-election, hovers around 46%, its lowest of her Presidency. Record snowfall in Maine at the end of the month is abetted by historically low snow levels in much of the Rockies.

November 2018 (continued): Mariano Rajoy calls snap elections for the second weekend of December after his constitutional reform fails to pass the Spanish Parliament after several rounds of negotiations. In his televised address, he says, "I cannot in good conscience continue to form a government on the precipice of a constitutional crisis. Only the people can end this standoff now." Massive protests begin in Barcelona and Bilbao and Podemos organizes a 100,000 person rally in central Madrid. The stakes for who gets to negotiate the next Spanish constitution are enormous.

Also, a bomb is detonated in central Bogota by chavista guerillas at a supermarket, killing fifteen people, Ursula von der Leyen organizes a major Cabinet reshuffle after less than a month on the job, and European markets continue their decline due to the Spanish crisis.

Spanish general elections, 2018

A disaster for the two major parties, as Podemos wins 170 seats in a landslide to become the largest party in Spain and forms a rare coalition in Spain by inviting the Catalonian nationalist ERC and Basque-nationalist Amaiur into new constitutional negotiations and in an effort to prop it up as it is just shy of a majority. The PSOE, beset by corruption scandals, manages only 50 seats in the Cortes, and many smaller left-wing parties are swallowed up by Podemos. Mariano Rajoy, whose party collapses to only 87 seats, announces he will resign as leader of the People's Party.

European equity indices collapse the day after the election, with the Financial Times describing Podemos and their new leader Pablo Iglesias a "Syriza times 1000." Catalonian separatists, including those on the right wary of some of Podemos' began plotting an independence referendum should Podemos present an insufficiently federalized and decentralized constitution by the deadline of January of 2020.

December 2018: John Thune presents his top priorities in a joint press conference with Kevin McCarthy - a two year budget, entitlement reform, a complete overhaul of the federal bureaucracy to modernize its functions and purposes, the continued consolidation and attrition of government positions, the passage of new free trade agreements, and tax reform. Though some of these proposals - like a major overhaul of entitlements or tax reform - are regarded as DOA, Clinton praises the idea of a two-year budget. A plane is forced to land early in Phoenix on an LA-Houston route after a suspected hijacking - it later turns out that a passenger was simply arguing with the waitress over using the bathroom.

December 2018 (continued): European analysts are more concerned that Podemos, like Syriza before it, will talk tough but fail to do much without jeopardizing Spain's position in the EU. However, the broader concern is in late December when Iglesias muses that, "If Catalonia and the Basque Country want a rearrangement of the federal agreement, we must consider the popular will." He also proposes unbanning the batasuna Basque nationalist groups, threatening the ceasefire with the ETA. A major flood in Bangladesh kills thousands. China announces it has reached a tentative deal with the Philippines over a maritime border that suits both parties.

And now, for Sports: In American college football, Ole Miss QB Shea Patterson wins the Heisman over UCLA QB Josh Rosen, Baylor QB Jarrett Stidham and freshman Texas RB Kenny Shines, who rushed for 2,100 yards in his first season. Patterson is credited with running the best offense in SEC history and leading the Rebels to their first undefeated season since 1962. They are the top seed in the CFP.

In American MLS soccer, the defending champions of the last two seasons, 2016's Seattle Sounders and 2017's Orlando City, face off in Seattle for the MLS Cup. The Sounders, having already won the US Open Cup, the Supporter's Shield and the CONCACAF Champions' League, are heavily favored, yet the game ends in a 1-1 draw in final time and then becomes a 2-2 draw thanks to Cyle Larin's equalizing goal in extra time at 119' after Sounders pulled ahead in the early part of extra time. City's luck runs out in penalty kicks, however, as Seattle goalkeeper Stefan Frei keeps a clean sheet, defending all four penalty kicks made by Orlando City to earn Seattle their fourth trophy of the year and ending one of the best seasons in North American soccer history.

Seattle's luck runs out a few weeks later at the FIFA Club Worlds in India, however, as they lose 2-0 to Uruguayan side Penarol in the semifinals after beating Algerian club ES Setif in the prior round. Paris St. Germain defeats Pohang Steelers in their semifinal and then defeats Penarol 2-1 in the final to win their first Club World Cup. Steelers defeats Sounders to take third place.

College Football Playoff: 2018-19

The Non-Playoff Bowls

2018 Peach Bowl: 11-2 ACC Champion Clemson is placed in the Peach Bowl to face the Pac-12's USC, which enters 11-1 having only lost to UCLA the whole season. USC paces the Tigers for most of the game before freshman running back Chris Williams breaks out on a 87-yard TD run late in the fourth quarter to cement USC's 34-30 win, particularly when senior CB Iman Marshall picks off Clemson's Kelly Bryant in the endzone with 0:18 remaining in the game as the Tigers try a desperation heave late in the game. It is Steve Sarkisian's first New Year's Six win in four appearances, including two playoff flameouts in 2016 and 2017.

2018 Fiesta Bowl: UCLA, humbled after its disastrous loss in the Pac-12 championship game, faces the undefeated SMU Mustangs - riding a 30-game winning streak - in Glendale. Much is made of SMU's landmark upset of Baylor in the 2017 Cotton Bowl and whether they can replicate the feat. Heisman runner up Josh Rosen goes off on the Mustangs in his final collegiate game, carving them up for 417 yards and five touchdowns as UCLA rolls 50-17 and hands SMU its first loss since the middle of the 2016 season.

2019 Rose Bowl: Coming off of their huge upset of undefeated UCLA in the Pac-12 title game, the Pac-12 champion Washington Huskies advance to their first Rose Bowl in 18 years where they face B1G runner-up Wisconsin, the first bowl meeting between the schools since 1960, also in the Rose Bowl. Like in the 1960 game, the Huskies dominate the Badgers, with quarterback Jake Browning throwing for 317 yards and four touchdowns while running back Brandon Wellington adds another two touchdowns to pace the Huskies to a 42-14 Rose Bowl rout.

2019 Sugar Bowl: Two-time SEC East winners - and two-time SEC championship losers - Tennessee Volunteers are placed in the Sugar Bowl to face Big 12 runner-up Texas, led by true freshman phenom Kenny Shines. Shines is bottled up by the No. 1 defense in the country and Quinten Dormady quarterbacks his Vols to a second-straight New Year's Six bowl win by defeating the Texas Longhorns 27-7.

College Football Playoff 2018-19

The Playoff Bowls

2018 Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Michigan is pitted against No. 3 Baylor, with both teams undefeated. Baylor, returning to the stadium where a year before it blew an 18-point lead to SMU and where four years earlier it blew a more than 20-point lead to Michigan State, flounders early as Michigan's defense harasses and harangues Baylor QB Jarrett Stidham, who despite throwing for nearly 300 yards does not throw a touchdown until late in the third quarter. Forced to settle for five field goals, including on four red zone trips, Baylor falls behind the efficient, hard-charging Wolverines to drop the game 38-29. Michigan wins its first New Years' Six bowl and is headed to the CFP final in New Orleans. Baylor still "can't win the big one."

2018 Orange Bowl: No. 1 Ole Miss faces No. 4 Ohio State, which was the best team in the country until a late reception and field goal by Michigan in The Big Game in Columbus led to a 34-31 upset loss. Ohio State enters a slight favorite, but Ole Miss' defense, one of the top five in the country, slows down the Buckeyes enough to allow the Rebels to play an efficient game behind Heisman-winning QB Shea Patterson, who throws for 280 yards, two touchdowns, and runs for one more to lead the undefeated Rebels into the championship game 28-17, continuing their storybook season.

2019 CFP Championship Game (New Orleans, LA): It is the first championship in the CFP era to feature two undefeated teams, as the No. 1 Ole Miss Rebels face the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines. The Rebels fall behind 10-0 early, but battle back to take a 14-10 lead going into halftime behind two Patterson touchdown passes. Michigan jumps out to a 24-14 lead midway through the third thanks to a returned Patterson interception and then a three-and-out leading to a punt return TD, but the Rebels march down the field three times to take a 35-24 lead midway through the fourth. The Wolverines return fire by scoring on their next possession, cutting the score to 35-31, but the Rebels recover the ensuing onside kick with a minute and a half left and run out the clock before punting back to the Wolverines, who are unable to convert on Alex Malzone's two Hail Mary attempts with less than 0:20 left. The thriller of a game results in the first undefeated CFP Champion, Ole Miss' first completely undefeated season since 1962, with their Heisman-winning QB leading them to their first consensus national championship in history and first-ever No. 1 finish.

January 2019: One of the coldest winters on record, with major snowfall throughout the United States. Planes are grounded for days in much of the Midwest and Northeast. A blizzard in Billings, Montana kills 40 people, mostly in collapsed roofs and roadside accidents, making it the most deadly blizzard in decades and one of the worst natural disasters in Montana history. The new Congress is seated amid the grim, snowy weather, with most aides and federal employees unable to get to work due to seven-foot snowdrifts throughout the DC area. Economic numbers show a smaller contraction than expected in Q4 of 2018, though the back-to-back quarters of decline show an economy in recession. The jobs report is stagnant, too.

January 2019 (continued): Pablo Iglesias convenes the new Spanish constitutional committee, and the world is keeping a close eye, particularly irredentists in Albania and separatists in places like Serbia, Scotland and Quebec. A violent terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia kills 21 people when gunmen open fire in an open-air market. The Libyan ceasefire goes into effect. Posturing begins for general elections in South Africa, India, Indonesia and the European elections, with anti-EU populists expected to do well once again.

And now, for Sports: Liverpool FC signs highly-touted Uruguayan striker José Morales of Penarol a few days after his 18th birthday, giving them a new goalscoring threat.