Talk Elections

For Republicans:

Was there ever a point during the 2004 campaign/election were you said to yourself, "Damn, we might lose this thing."

For Democrats:

Was there ever a point during the 2004 campaign/election were you said to yourself, "Damn, we might actually win this thing!"

When and Why?

Based on what I saw here during the 2004 campaign, the only people I saw doubting that their candidate would win Boss Tweed (Democrat) and the infamous mypalfish (Republican, maybe).  I'm sure there was someone here or there who thought their candidate might lose from time to time, but these were the only two consistent ones.

I always predicted around a 2-4 point Bush win and for once in my life I was actually right on something.

I will admit that I thought the election could be a nailbiter after the Dem Convention and before the 1st debate, I thought Bush might win by 5-7 points if he defeated Kerry in the first debate, but otherwise that was always my prediction.

Only on election night.  I was watching returns from Ohio and I was worried that there were too many Bush counties that had been included in the total and we didn't have enough votes to make it when Cuyahoga reported.  Fortunately, we did :)

At two points:

Around August 10, after the Democratic convention, and while Kerry had a 1-2 point lead in the polls, I was beginning to think that Ohio was looking more and more desperate, and that we could very well lose this thing.  Of course, by about five days before the Republican Convention, this feeling evaporated, and for the next two months I was convinced that Bush would win the election.

Until, of course, I started hearing the exit poll results at about 2-3 pm on November 2nd.  I began to think that this was going to be like 2000 all over again (in the sense of the 2-3 point Bush lead died on the day itself), and that Kerry would squeak away with this one.  Unlike back in August, where it was just an idle thought (and I thought I could manage a Kerry presidency), this just came as a total shock to me...I had known that Bush would win for the past two months, it couldn't just reverse like that...

I then proceeded to take a nap, have dinner, and then sat down to watch the election returns come in...and I was happy.

I didn't vote for Bush, but no, I never doubted he would win. Not my style.

I had consistently predicted a Bush win since November 2003.

Must've missed ya, Beet.  For some reason, I only remember Tweed and mypalfish.

Tweed was by far the most vocal about it, I don't remember about mypalfish. I'm sure a lot of other Dems thought Bush would win too but didn't say it. Heres an interesting discussion (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=23.msg186#msg186) from way back when.

I will now accept my accolades by mypalfish (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=12005.0)


Perhaps the best part is that WalterMitty, who many call a RINO, started the taunting that lasted a long time.

I always had a Bush victory planned out, but the degree was always varying, from +4 in the PV to -0.5 in the PV.

But I knew he would win.

Not true.  I had very severe doubts at some points.

July and August.  I didn't how big the RNC bounce would be; I was expecting a much closer September.  After that, it was smooth sailing.

I thought we would win from April-August.  From August through mid-October, I expected a Bush win and in the last couple of weeks I expected Bush to win the PV and Kerry to win the EV (although this was probably wishful thinking)

Always expected Bush. I was most worried after the debates, but I never really expected Kerry to win.

I almost always thought Bush would win. I had some slight doubts when Frank Luntz started saying they'd voted on the economy (but it turned out they hadn't).

I was unimpressed with anyone throughout the Democratic primaries, especially Kerry, so I thought Bush was going to win up until about May or so. As I started to research the maps more, I realized, "Hey, if we win Ohio, we can win the thing."

I think I accepted sooner that a Democrat can win an election than I did that John Kerry could. By the end of the race, I did think John Kerry was Presidential material, but for a while I was unsure. I still had my doubts about Kerry. I think my first moment of realizing that there really could be a President Kerry was early July or so, as I watched more of him. (I actually think his speaking style is very Presidential, that might have had an impact). I was never confident though. Throughout the campaign, I would always annoy fellow Dems (in RL) by saying Bush was going to win.

By the fall, I'd put on the pretty face that Kerry was going to win, probably mainly for school, since as the leading (only) politically inclined guy there, I didn't want to go marching around saying Bush had the thing wrapped up. I wasn't as down as everyone else in September, but after the first debate I actually had hope that Americans would see through Bush, but it didn't happen. I said I thought Kerry would win, and I thought he had a very good chance of winning, but I always had this nagging feeling in the back of my mind Bush would. I didn't trust the USA. The back of my mind was right.

After the first debate, I expected Kerry would win closely.  Up till a few days before election day, I thought he could still likely win.

When I purchased my 2004 Calendar on Christmas Eve 2003 I marked Election Day with writing "Bush Loses Reelection." :)

Sure.  I thought that in the spring, with the Abu Ghraib scandal and the increasing violence in Iraq.  Then in June, there were some economic numbers that weren't so great.

After Labor Day, Bush opened up a decent lead, but I know how fast those things can evaporate when there are 2 months to election day.  Then Bush "lost" the first debate, and that hurt his lead.

Going into the home stretch, Kerry seemed to be gaining, and the weekend before the election, I thought there was at least an even chance that Bush would lose.

Bush of course ended up being helped by CBS News' clumsy attempts to hurt him with their falsified National Guard story.  Maybe that's even what put him over the top.

Then of course, election day had the faulty exit polling data released in the middle of the day that showed Bush losing.  By then, I was suspicious and decided to reserve judgment.  I remembered the manipulation of exit polling from 2000 and how it contributed to the mess in Florida, by calling the state for Gore while polls were still open in the heavily Republican panhandle.  I think the exit poll manipulation in 2004 ended up helping Bush, by motivating his supporters to get out and vote.

In the early evening, I watched the "expert" liberal pundits talking about how it would be impossible for the president to win, but at that point, strangely enough, I didn't believe them, and didn't get too upset with the early results.  I was very pleased and relieved when I saw the tide turning and the president won re-election.

The biggest drawback to the Bush victory was the it clears the way for Hillary Clinton in 2008.  A victory by that woman would be an absolute calamity for the country, and the fact that Bush's 2004 victory made a presidency by Madame Clinton more likely is the worst side effect of the 2004 results.

I'm pretty sure I thought Bush would win for at least the few months before the election. Before that--- I don't remember! John Kerry was somehwat new to me.

I never really doubted it. :) In like August or September, I thought, for a second, "What if Kerry wins?" That's the only time I ever thought that.

I was sure of a Kerry victory until the end.  There were some points after the RNC where I was losing hope, but I regained my optimism after the first debate. 
Then on election night I lost my hope again.

Was sure that Bush will win until the day before the election when I expected Kerry to win the EV but Bush to win the PV.  Guess I was wrong.

not until election day.

i was always sure of a bush victory.  however, when some of the exit polls were leaked during the day on election day, i began to prepare myself for the possiblity of bush losing.

The 2004 election was the most stable I ever seen from a polling point of view.

The thing was dead even till about the end of July.
Kerry was up a point or two in August
Bush was up maybe 4 in September, and that settled back to 2.5 at the end.

Just about all of the very minor change wasn't even really change either, it was simply the historical pattern of various parts of each party's base tuning it according to more or less historical patterns.

I saw a graphic that said that if you just count the three states that actually changed hands (NH, IOWA, NM) the parties spent $1.2 billion to change 20,000 votes.

I was personally surprised how solid Bush's base turned out to be.  I expected a very modest Kerry win till say maybe the end of July or so, but the DEm convention didn't change any minds either way, and the GOP actually "got religion" (pun intended) regarding their voter turnout efforts and a very modest Bush advcantage never really faded after that.

In May of 2004, this what I expected:

DNC:  Kerry gets a 4-5 point boost, which erodes to dead even for the RNC.

RNC:  Bush goes up 4-5, which evaporates in mid September, about the time of the first debate.

Debates:  Kerry up by 5 at the end, but this drops to a dead on election day, with Bush taking the EV and barely the popular vote.

When Kerry didn't get the long term and strong post convention bounce, I was pretty sure Bush would win.  I was actually looking at the outside chance of a Bush landslide in early September.

Late July/early August, I wasn't sure if Bush would win. After the GOP convention I was definitely sure.

Yeah... there definately was...  I think it was in the last few weeks of the election...

All the liberals in my school were wearing anti-Bush things and saying how much they hated him.  We even had a mock election in our school... Bush won by a landslide...  but I sincerely thought Kerry would win that election.

In the real election, I thought the same thing.  I saw more Kerry-Edwards bumpers stickers on cars and alot more Kerry-Edwards signs.  However, a guy who is a member of this board  as well as being my BESTEST best friend and decided that Bush was definately going to win (he doesn't want to be revealed yet... for some strange reason...).  It calmed my fears.

And we, obviously, were right!

Oh, and hello, everyone!  I'm a newbie here!!  YAY!!  Don't worry, I'm not here to ruin your forum.

Rin-chan

:D
Hi NixonNow!

I was sure Kerry would win the whole time, because I'm an optimist and thought America would see the light.  The debates and exit poll numbers made me even more confident.  I made a map on Nov 1 with Kerry winning FL, OH, CO, IA, and WV.  All of that came crashing down on Nov. 2.  On Nov. 3, during academic team practice, I made the whole team stop playing so we could watch Kerry's speech on TV....I was quite sad :(

Rin-Chin sounds more like a Naso name

Nope.

Cobb didn't stand a chance anyway. ;)

For most of the campaign (From June on...) I expected either Kerry to win or the election to end up a tie and go to the House, where Bush would win. My prediction map reflects this.

I thought that the obstacles and hatred was too much for Bush to overcome, and I'm surprised he did, although he threw away whatever he had and thus now he has 30% approval ratings.

Wow you dug that one out of the time machine.

I know your not old enough to have voted, but judging by some of your posts you seem pretty typical of that 15% block of voters who voted for Bush in 04, but now is disgusted with the administration, which is shown in his approval #'s.

Yea, that's basically about right. I have supported two things in the Second Bush Administration: Roberts and Alito. Besides that I find no confidence in the decisions made by this administration.

I was concerned about John Edwards or Wes Clark winning the nomination. I thought Dean has a chance.

When John Kerry of all people was the nominee, I wasn't that concerned until the first debates. That's when Bush might have beat himself, but two weeks before the election, I figured we had it. Everyone had enough of the Michael Moore wing of the party. When I see houses after houses put up political signs for the first time, and all of those for Bush, we had it.

Bush was beatable, but not by John Kerry.

I thought Kerry would win, but then I am probably too optimistic for my own good.

With regards to those thinking that their candidate would lose, I do recall MarkDel predicting a Kerry victory a couple of days or so before the election.

I must admit, I thought Kerry was going to win narrowly. I thought that Bush had screwed up just enough to lose reelection. The one time during the actual campaign that I was doubtful was at the Democratic National Convention when Kerry "reported for duty." But then on Election Night, I realized that there would be another four years of Bush.

On a side note, if Kerry had won, I had been planning to dance around singing in the street and celebrating.

I expected a Bush win, in fact a larger Bush win than was eventually the case. The only time when I actually thought Kerry would win was on election night when I got news of the exit poll and the surprisingly high turn-out. I thought that would save Kerry. Then I realized that his margins in places like Delaware, Connecticut and New Jersey had been cut in half compared to Gore and that Michigan was too close to call and that the South had gone solidly to Bush and I thought "..." well, I don't know exactly what I thought but I was pretty certain that it was over. My dad misheard something though and told me Kerry was ahead in Ohio and that made me doubt myself a short while. But only a short while.

The only thing I said to myself during the 2004 elections was, "What a bunch of dumbasses".

The weeks after Kerry picked Edwards but before the Dem's convention, after the first debate, and about 5 days before the election before Kerry wasted time on states like Nevada and Flordia instead of focusing on Ohio.

That's because at the time, Ohio wasn't being looked at as a big swing state. After 2000, the Dems were hell bent on winning Florida. They spent so much time and money there with no result at all. Truly a large mistake on their part.

Granted they might have been able to pull it off if they had spent as much time campaigning as they did trying to throw Nader off the ballot.

During the Democratic Convention, and right after the first debate, when Kerry was moping the floor with Bush, well not moping the floor, but he was ahead by a few points.

I was still optomistic on election night, but not nearly as optomistic as i was during the summer months.

MarkDel tended to put a negative cast on a lot of things.  He predicted a Kerry win because he so dreaded the prospect of it.