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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Thomas from NJ on January 03, 2015, 01:21:45 pm



Title: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Thomas from NJ on January 03, 2015, 01:21:45 pm
I didn't see any thread dedicated to this.

Talk about the 2015 local, regional and general elections in Spain here.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 03, 2015, 01:39:56 pm
I was about to start one this month, when I had the time to write some little explanatory effort post. The election may be in November or December and, according to some rumours, even as late as January 2016.

If you have patience and interest, give this Guide to the 2011 Spanish Elections a chance. It was written by El Caudillo of this board.

http://welections.wordpress.com/links/guide-to-the-2011-spanish-election/


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: coloniac on January 05, 2015, 04:59:21 am
I wonder the remaining traditional Left in Asturias will switch from PSOE/IU to Podemos? Could be a decisive factor.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on January 05, 2015, 05:01:06 pm
Should this thread serve as a general Spanish election thread, including the regional and locals in May; and a potential Catalan snap election?

(also do we have polls for the regional elections?)


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Clyde1998 on January 05, 2015, 05:10:59 pm
Should this thread serve as a general Spanish election thread, including the regional and locals in May; and a potential Catalan snap election?

(also do we have polls for the regional elections?)
Catalonia (9-13 Dec - link (http://ceo.gencat.cat/ceop/AppJava/export/sites/CEOPortal/documents/dossiers_premsa/Dossier_de_premsa_-760.pdf)):
Podemos - 20.4%
CiU - 18.8%
ERC - 17.5%
PSC - 13.3%
PP - 10.7%
C's - 5.1%
ICV-EUiA - 4.6%
CUP - 2.7%
Others - 6.9%


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: coloniac on January 05, 2015, 06:06:06 pm
Forgive my ignorance, but what is Podemos' exact position on a Catalan referendum?

EDIT : I have just seen that the vast majority of their newfound supportters in Catalonia are from the PSC. So I imagine they are not in favour of a referendum.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 05, 2015, 06:34:30 pm
Should this thread serve as a general Spanish election thread, including the regional and locals in May; and a potential Catalan snap election?

(also do we have polls for the regional elections?)

I think it's not a good idea melting all the elections in a single thread. Local and regional elections may not be as interesting for forumites as the parliamentary elections. They will be key for the developments in the second half of the year. However, it'd be rather confusing if we discuss them alongside with the general elections. Regional and local realities in Spain have some complexities, including regionalist and nationalist parties in particular territories. As for Catalonia, it has particular developments and a different party system (trend accentuated since 2011 onwards). Snap elections in Catalonia would deserve another single thread, as it happened with the pseudo-referendum held in November.

My idea was starting a thread on the General Elections with some basic info (parties, electoral system, election background), as well posting polls at national level here instead of using the Spain's General Discussion. I thought there wasn't a rush, because elections will be held in all likelihood by the end of the year and not too many people here is following Spanish politics. As you can see, someone took the lead. February might be a good month to start a thread on the regional and locals, because by that time will be announced most of the candidacies in the main cities and territories.

I wonder the remaining traditional Left in Asturias will switch from PSOE/IU to Podemos? Could be a decisive factor.

Asturias has little demographic weight in the whole Spain. It has a population of 1.054 million, a 2.34% of the country according to Wikipedia. I guess the 'traditional left' in Asturias may be represented by the towns located in the mining basis, which have been declining in population but are still important in the regional context.

In the EP Elections, PSOE won narrowly in Asturias taking 26.08% with PP second getting 24.12%. Podemos came third getting 13.64%, which was the best regional result for the Pablo Iglesias' party, while IU came fourth getting 12.9% (a strong result, but slightly below the 2011 elections). The right-wing regionalist Foro Asturias (FAC) did poorly getting only 4.23%. Although the FAC -party splitted from the Asturias' PP led by Francisco Álvarez Cascos- will likely improve that performance in the next regional elections, it would be far from its good results in the two consecutive elections held in May 2011 and March 2012.

In the EP Elections, Podemos got around 15% in Oviedo (regional capital and PP's main fortress), the port of Gijón (the most populated city) and the town of Avilés (formerly a seat of the steel industry). In the mining towns of Mieres and Langreo, Podemos performed between 13% and 14% coming behind PSOE and the IU, the latter getting more than 20% of the vote in both. The traditional left in Asturias is not particularly in good shape, with the socialist SOMA-UGT and the formerly communist CC.OO unions facing a serious crisis of credibility. Furthermore, a veteran SOMA-UGT and PSOE member was involved in the Caja Madrid 'black card' scandal. The IU has internal divisions and is controlled by the faction loyal to Gaspar Llamazares, currently MP for Asturias and formerly national leader. Maybe critics of the IU's regional leadership are ready to support Podemos. Asturias might be well a target district for Podemos to win in the next general elections, collecting many voters disappointed at the two traditional parties in the left. The MP that IU returned to the Congress of Deputies from Asturias might be in danger. IU would need around 10% of the vote to win one of the 8 deputies returned by Asturias; Gaspar Llamazares got 13.2% in November 2011. As well, the FAC could lose the seat won in the past election. It's up to see which strength shows Podemos in the next regional elections on May 24.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 05, 2015, 06:43:16 pm
Forgive my ignorance, but what is Podemos' exact position on a Catalan referendum?

EDIT : I have just seen that the vast majority of their newfound supportters in Catalonia are from the PSC. So I imagine they are not in favour of a referendum.

Podemos is in favour of a referendum, but Pablo Iglesias stated that he wants Catalonia to stay in Spain. Recently, Iglesias spoke before a crowd in Barcelona, bashing at the same time the ruling pro-independence CiU and the Spanish "Casta" represented by the PP government in Madrid (and the PSOE). Podemos tries to avoid the confrontation between independence supporters and opponents, considering that debate is not a priority for them. They say they want to decide in a wide range of matters, not only on independence. Podemos in Catalonia is 'transversal' in what regards that debate; there are supporters and vocal opponents amongst the membership.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 06, 2015, 10:58:18 am
Should this thread serve as a general Spanish election thread, including the regional and locals in May; and a potential Catalan snap election?

(also do we have polls for the regional elections?)
Catalonia (9-13 Dec - link (http://ceo.gencat.cat/ceop/AppJava/export/sites/CEOPortal/documents/dossiers_premsa/Dossier_de_premsa_-760.pdf)):
Podemos - 20.4%
CiU - 18.8%
ERC - 17.5%
PSC - 13.3%
PP - 10.7%
C's - 5.1%
ICV-EUiA - 4.6%
CUP - 2.7%
Others - 6.9%

This is not a vote estimation for regional elections, but for the Spanish General Elections (Congress of Deputies) in Catalonia. This is one of the reasons why I would not happy melting in a single trhread all the elections that will take place in Spain. It's going to generate confusion.

The poll was conducted by the CEO, a Catalan sociologic institute attached to the regional government (it's the equivalent of the Spanish CIS). The CEO vote estimation for the Parliament of Catalonia is the following:

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Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 06, 2015, 04:27:16 pm
I can't resist the temptation of sharing this article from the Very Serious Paper: 'Restless and Resentful'.

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21637423-year-electoral-turbulence-lies-ahead-restless-and-resentful

Quote
SPAIN is facing a year of bruising, confrontational politics, with several elections that could result in dramatic changes in the way the country is governed. Not least, the constitution, which has underpinned democracy ever since 1978, may not survive in its present form. The prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, and his centre-right Popular Party (PP) may soon find themselves fighting on two fronts at once: trying to save Spain from disintegration if snap elections based around independence are held in Catalonia; and fighting to stop the PP being kicked into third place nationally when other regions and municipalities vote in May.

Nor do Mr Rajoy’s troubles end there. A general election looms in December 2015 which could result in either the Socialists or an upstart leftist party, Podemos, ousting Mr Rajoy and dismantling economic reforms brought in to tackle Spain’s debt crisis. The country is now outperforming most of the rest of Europe. But the scars left by austerity and a lengthy recession have not yet healed. Unemployment remains at 24% and GDP is still below its previous peak.

The entry is eloquently dramatic: Disintegration and Chaos. The independence movement in Catalonia is certainly a serious challenge and its victory could bring serious consequences. However, if the writer expects that Mariano Rajoy is going to save Spain handling the defy of Catalan nationalism in the way that he's been up... Catalonia will be independent soon and independence supporters will reach Paradise on Earth. This is not unrelated with the second concern, the survival of the 1978 Constitution in its present form. The current constitutional text underpinned democracy for 35 years, but the multilevel crisis that is facing Spain is making evident that it's about time for a serious reform... Among other things, one that includes a clarification of the structure of the State. Only fearful XIX Century conservatives like Rajoy - the columnist seems to be on the same wavelength- think that the answer is resisting to change. At all costs.

The second paragraph overcomes the 'scars' left by austerity: dismantling of the middle class and the welfare state, increasing inequality, impoverishment. On the other hand, the economic performance of Spain hasn't been as brilliant as the text suggests. Real GDP growth rate was -0.6% in 2011, -2.1% in 2012 and -1,2% in 2013 (source: Eurostat). The Spanish government claims that now the country has the highest growth rate in the EU. It's false. The Winter 2014 European Economic Forecast says that Spain's Real GDP is growing by 1% and foresees a growth of 1.7%  in 2015. EU average is at 1.2% and 1.8% in the same dates. Latvia, Estonia or Ireland are doing far better. The adjective that can better describe the result of Rajoy's 'reforms' is mediocre.

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tec00115&plugin=1

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2014/pdf/ee2_en.pdf

No further comments on the following paragraph:

Quote
The timing of a Catalan election depends on the regional president, Artur Mas. He wants a quick vote to serve as a plebiscite on independence, but is also anxious not to hand power to his rival, the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) party. To that end he wants the ERC to stand on the same list as the separatist wing of his own Convergence and Union (CiU) coalition. The ERC prefers to be on a separate list of its own, but has guaranteed Mr Mas the presidency. “The important thing is the [Catalan] republic, not the presidency,” says the party’s leader, Oriol Junqueras. If agreement does not come soon, the election may not happen. A pre-Christmas poll found the parties neck-and-neck. But backing for independence has dropped from 47.1% in April to 44.5% now. Adding to the uncertainty is the rise of a left-wing party, Podemos, which supports a referendum but is mistrusted by both Catalan and Basque separatists.

On Podemos and the PSOE's 'leftist drive':

Quote
The eruption of Podemos, which calls Spain’s right “the enemy” but despises the entire political establishment, has set the tone for a newly combative era and changed the game. Podemos, which first appeared in May’s European elections, is now intent on becoming the country's biggest party. The newish Socialist leader, Pedro Sánchez, has been pushed leftward, ruling out a “grand coalition” with Mr Rajoy and denouncing as mistaken reforms introduced by a former Socialist prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, at the height of the financial crisis in 2011. He would alter the constitution, softening a Zapatero measure that caps future budgets and further federalising Spain in a bid to keep the Catalans happy.

But Mr Sánchez, appointed in July, has yet to secure the full backing of his party. The Socialists are losing voters to Podemos, whose leaders were once cheerleaders for anti-capitalism, debt-restructuring, “degrowth” and even Venezuela’s former president, Hugo Chávez. Podemos is distancing itself from some of such nuttier stuff, but the political programme it is drawing up will still be far to the left of the Socialists. The party wants a big constitutional rewrite. It may seek alliances with a future left-wing Syriza government in Greece (it welcomed this week’s news of an early Greek election) and with Sinn Fein in Ireland. Podemos clearly has Spain’s financial and political elites in its sights. That appeals to many voters, who blame them for the debt crisis and its aftermath.

Mr Rajoy’s hopes of eventual victory rest on his boast to have ended Spain’s economic crisis. Spanish voters seem disinclined to show him much gratitude.

Ruling out in public a "Grand Coalition" with PP can hardly be described as a drive to the left, it's just a matter of common sense realising that PP's invitations for a bear hug might be a suicide for the Spanish socialists. The constitutional reforms introduced by José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero by the end of his term (summer 2011), which emphasize that containing debt is a budgetary priority, were enacted under the pressure if the Troika and were a vain attempt to calm down the 'markets'. Some people may think that the text of the reformed article 135 of the Spanish Constitution isn't very harmful in itself:

Quote
1. El Gobierno habrá de estar autorizado por Ley para emitir Deuda Pública o contraer crédito.
2. Los créditos para satisfacer el pago de intereses y capital de la Deuda Pública del Estado se entenderán siempre incluidos en el estado de gastos de los presupuestos y no podrán ser objeto de enmienda o modificación, mientras se ajusten a las condiciones de la Ley de emisión.

However, the perception in the Spanish people is that this 'reform' was an unacceptable imposition from foreign powers, prioritises fulfilling the debt terms at the cost of basic needs like financing education and healthcare. Also, it's used by the current government to justify aggressive cuts in public spending. Far from being an extremist drive, in denouncing that constitutional change as mistaken Pedro Sánchez is trying desperately to recover credibility amongst PSOE's centre-left electoral base.

It's certainly laughable the contrast between those concerns on the reformed article 135 and the fear that the columnist expresses on further alterations of the constitution, like that proposal to federalise Spain to keep Catalans happy. Is he a Rajoy's adviser? In any case, the article can be used as a brief sample of PP's stances.

The last paragraph depicting Podemos as a bunch of dangerous extremists may work to frighten good people abroad, but hardly creates an impression in Spain. The radical left background of some of the Podemos founding core members is well known. When asked, Podemos spokepersons don't try to refute sympathies for certain Latin American governments. They just say that the 'Bolivarian model' cannot be transplanted to Spain remarking the obvious: the big differences betwen realities in Latin America and the southwestern corner of Europe. As it happens with the Syriza's economic programme, Podemos has softened some key points in the economic agenda, which can hardly be described as 'extremist' or 'Bolivarian', even though words like "debt-restructuring" may cause alarm amongst analysts at The Economist.  


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: politicus on January 06, 2015, 04:46:32 pm
As it happens with the Syriza's economic programme, Podemos has softened some key points in the economic agenda, which can hardly be described as 'extremist' or 'Bolivarian', even though words like "debt-restructuring" may cause alarm amongst analysts at The Economist.  

With both Syriza and Podemos there is the interesting question: How leftist an economic policy can you actually implement in a small/medium country in a globalized economy with powerful financial markets without tanking your economy? And given that this is unknown there is also the issue of whether Syriza and Podemos will adjust more towards the center than necessary.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 07, 2015, 07:27:52 am
There's no answer for those questions.

However, don't worry. Spain and Andorra are about to sign an agreement to combat tax fraud:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/07/inenglish/1420618570_101304.html

Quote
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is expected to sign an agreement that will include a system for automatically sharing tax information between Andorra and Spain during an official two-day visit to the principality that begins on Wednesday.

The agreement is aimed at making it difficult for Spaniards to evade taxes by depositing money in the small Pyrenean nation. The move comes in the wake of last summer’s scandal in which former Catalan regional premier Jordi Pujol admitted that he had kept accounts containing several million euros in Andorra and other tax havens for 34 years. Pujol is scheduled to appear before a Barcelona court on January 27 (...)

It's a pity that our government has not deployed the same enthusiasm in fighting other Spaniard tax evaders by funding the tax inspectorate. Instead, Minister of Finance Cristóbal Montoro decreed a tax amnesty and our great fortunes have a wonderful tool at their disposal called SICAV, financial vehicle usually based in tax havens such as Luxembourg.

More on topic, Audit Court found nearly all Spanish parties guilty of financial crimes.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/05/inenglish/1420477280_010065.html

Quote
Convergència Democràtica de Catalunya (CDC). The prosecutor claims that CDC, one half of the ruling CiU bloc in Catalonia, committed crimes in its 2012 accounts. Specifically, there are €1.7 million that the party lists as revenue from services rendered to the CiU and various foundations, but which are not properly documented. The only evidence of these services are a few “internal notes” that fail to confirm whether the services existed in the first place.

CDC also made contributions to its various foundations, yet failed to reflect them properly in the accounts. The main foundation, Cat-Dem, holds that these amounts were donations, which are governed by a different legal system from contributions. The party’s 2012 accounts do not include all incoming and outgoing money, says the report, noting that the financial activity of its local headquarters is not included.

Unió Democràtica de Catalunya (UDC). CDC’s longtime partner in the Catalan executive, UDC, does not fare much better. The party’s headquarters in Girona was acquired with a loan of €402,016 that is “practically paid off” according to the report, yet still shows up as pending repayment. The party also took out a €9.5 million loan from Kutxabank, “which this lender has forgiven” to the extent that the debt has been reduced to less than €1 million. The prosecutor also highlights that UDC paid over €57,773 in expenses to an unnamed party leader, and that this money was classified as operating costs.

Popular Party (PP). The Audit Court’s report does not paint a rosy picture of Spain’s ruling party, which may be guilty of having committed “several tax crimes” in 2012. Eight lenders have provided information to the effect that the PP holds bank accounts worth a total €1.3 million that were not declared to the tax authorities. The prosecutor notes that the PP “has refused” to provide the Audit Court with copies of 34 contracts signed with alleged service providers.

The conservative group also accepted a €86,000 donation from a company that was awarded public contracts, a forbidden practice. Asked for explanations, the party said it had no way of checking whether donors have a business relationship with government agencies, and simply trusted their sworn statements.

The Bárcenas case, currently under investigation at the High Court, suggests that the PP may have accepted as much as €8 million in illegal donations over the last 20 years.

PSOE. The report identifies wrongdoing in the Socialist Party’s financial relationship with its Pablo Iglesias and Ideas para el Progreso foundations. In 2012, the party loaned at least €4.4 million to both despite the fact that this money would never be repaid, considering the foundations’ negative balances. The prosecutor also considered it irregular that the manager of the Socialist Party and the manager of the Ideas foundation were one and the same person. In 2010 and 2011, the PSOE also lent its foundations over €1 million that has since been practically written off.

The report underscores that it is difficult to understand why the party would do such a thing, then ask banks for a €14.7 million loan to finance a labor adjustment plan. The Pablo Iglesias foundation (named after a historical Socialist leader, not to be confused with the leader of new party Podemos of the same name) recorded its loan from the PSOE as a “contribution,” which is not taxable.

Basque Nationalist Party (PNV). The ruling party in the Basque region failed to include income worth €4.9 million in its 2012 accounts. This amount was the result of a strange and lucrative swap involving a large property. The prosecutor also says that the party unlawfully owns a complicated web of companies (some headquartered in France) whose activities could be providing a source of illegal financing. In 2012, the PNV had 357 checking accounts, savings accounts and investment funds worth a combined €3.1 million that were not included in its official accounting.

It must be noted that the Audit Court has never acted against any major party to date, has faced criticism for inefficiency and nepotism and having been notoriously slow in analysing parties' finances.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 08, 2015, 08:02:01 pm
I found a website called The Spain Report which might be interesting as an English language source of news and analysis on Spanish politics.

https://www.thespainreport.com/

I don't share necessarily the points of view stated in the editorial articles. I have read only a few of them and I have no concrete opinion of the editorial line. At first sight, it doesn't look bad and it's always interesting to me knowing how people from abroad perceives politics in my country. One of the editorials puts forward three hypothetical scenarios for this election year, focusing on the narratives:

https://www.thespainreport.com/13643/three-scenarios-spain-uncertain-2015/

Quote
The steadfast and often silent Spanish Prime Minister is betting on increasing the fear of Podemos in the minds of older, rural and business voters—to stop them from abstaining—on convincing them that the Popular Party (PP) has successfully turned the country’s economic crisis into a thing of the past, that all of the corruption cases are just a few bad apples, now isolated, and that Spain just needs to pay more attention to the 1978 Constitution. This strategy, combined with the dynamics of Spain’s electoral system (a form of proportional representation), which is skewed towards making it easier for Spanish conservatives to win rural seats and a majority in Congress, mean some recent estimates suggest Mr. Rajoy could hope to win a new majority with as little as 34% of the vote, the share Adolfo Suárez’s UCD needed in 1977 to win Spain’s first general election since the Second Republic.

Pablo Iglesias and Podemos have risen from nothing 12 months ago to sharing approximately equal pre-election mindshare with the PP and PSOE on a narrative of a broken, corrupt constitutional system that is not fit for Spaniards and the 21st-Century. Increasing numbers of young, urban voters have had enough after years of broken promises from the two mendacious establishment parties that have ruled the roost since 1978, 54% youth unemployment or €600-a-month temporary contracts with no future. It is now well past the time for rooting out a few rotten apples and more the moment to overturn the whole constitutional apple cart, chop it into firewood and build some other form of transport. Millions of angry, fed up Spaniards are readying their axes and Mr. Iglesias holds the lighter. Not only are the lying extractive elites doing their best to destroy all those hopes and futures, they are also being helped by the European establishment and Mrs. Merkel, so the euro project as it currently exists will need turning into a bonfire too, with the help of comrades in Greece.

In between these two increasingly polarised options, there is Mr. Sánchez’s Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) and what might, in other circumstances, be a promising Spanish Third Way of constitutional reform, which the PSOE would also like to apply to solving the problem of Catalan secession. The modern Spanish electorate has until now been sociologically slightly left-of-centre (hence the lack of competition for the PP on the right and a confusion of options fighting for the centre left), and the PSOE has dominated, but this long-standing assumption might have undergone a fundamental shift since the crisis began to take its toll, thus Podemos. The Popular Party criticises the PSOE’s lack of concrete proposals for constitutional reform, and it is not very wrong. Five months before the election cycle begins, Mr. Sánchez, initially nicknamed “Ken” for his square-jawed good looks, appears more preoccupied with restoring the vowels to his name on his personal blog and of taking selfies with a well-known Spanish adventure TV show action man.

(...)

The site translates into English news from Spanish media and its focus is taking "a broad, systemic view of the Spanish nation and its international situation".


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 12, 2015, 03:51:08 am
Some polls have been released recently. It'd be illustrative posting the Wiki graph to see the general trend from November 2011 to December 2014.

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Key: light blue PP, red PSOE, maroon IU, magenta UPyD, navy blue CiU, green PNV, yellow ERC, orange Ciudadanos, purple Podemos.

Metroscopia / El País (Jan 10)

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Changes in the centre-left and the centre-right. PP and PSOE are the most adversely affected, IU and UPyD under the pressure created by the surge of Podemos and now Ciudadanos (Cs), which according to the pollster seems to be on the rise in the last weeks catching voters in the centre-right (1/2 coming from PP).

My Word/ Cadena SER (Jan 9)

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Podemos comes first as in the previous poll, but PP and PSOE exchange their places with the latter falling below 20% in the estimation. Ciudadanos is on the rise too, but the estimation places the party behind UPYD -both parties are competing in the same ideological range-. IU polls quite low.

NC Report/ La Razón (Jan 4)

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PP first, PSOE and Podemos virtually tied in the second place, IU resists on the 5% line polling better than UPyD and Cs.

For reference, El Pais (Madrid newspaper) and Cadena SER (a radio station) belong to the same media group are are alligned on the centre-left (PSOE). La Razón is a conservative and PP-friendly Madrid newspaper.

Two last pics from electograph.com.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: YL on January 12, 2015, 04:46:56 am
For reference, El Pais (Madrid newspaper) and Cadena SER (a radio station) belong to the same media group are are alligned on the centre-left (PSOE). La Razón is a conservative and PP-friendly Madrid newspaper.

Would you expect a poll for La Razón to show a pro-PP bias in line with its editorial line?  (Or, more generally, do Spanish polls' house effects tend to reflect the political biases of those who commission them?)


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 12, 2015, 12:14:35 pm
In the case of La Razón it's possible, yes. The polls conducted by Metroscopia in El País are placing PSOE higher than the rest and PP lower, with some weird oscillations which can be due to methodology. If you have a mean mind, you might suspect some bias being El País one of the few media where you can read some kind words about the erratic PSOE leadership. In the case of other media, it's harder to say. Sigma Dos, which works for El Mundo, used to have a tendency to overestimate PP in the past, but now is amongst the pollsters which places Podemos higher. The polls conducted by Celeste-Tel in eldiario.es (an online paper somewhat close to Podemos) are amongst the most 'conservative' in the vote estimation.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Niemeyerite on January 12, 2015, 01:04:23 pm
Eldiario.es may look like closer to Podemos, but I've been told that the PSOE finances it... Not to say that Celeste-Tel's director is the wife of NC-Report's director... So, if any, they have a pro-bipartidism bias.


Title: Catalan elections announced on September 27
Post by: Velasco on January 14, 2015, 08:01:04 pm
Catalan premier Artur Mas announced yesterday that elections in Catalonia will be called on September 27, within an agreement with the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) to complete the independence process "Onward to Victory".

Mas proclaimed that the pact of unity "has been remade (...) to guarantee the process of national transition which concluded on November 9". His statement of intention means that his goal is the independence of Catalonia. The agreement reached with ERC will allow the CiU government to pass the budget and saving time to complete the creation of what Mas calls "state structures".

Despite the ERC pressed for an immediate call and gave the Catalan premier an ultimatum, finally the party led by Oriol Junqueras gave ground on the election date. However, they get away with another key issue which was bogging down the negotiation: the joint pro-independence ticket has been discarded, despite pressures from Mas and the civic pro-independence associations.  

CiU and ERC will run in separate lists with a "shared roadmap on the political process" which has to be agreed between forces. The document on that roadmap is already far advanced, according to Mas, and will contemplate the path to take until the proclamation of independence.

The agreement was forged in a five-hour meeting between Artur Mas (CiU), Oriol Junqueras (ERC), Carme Forcadell (ANC), Muriel Cassals (Òmnium Cultural) and Josep Maria D'Abadal (AMI). The main points are:

1) Re-validation of the stability pact between CiU and ERC until the elections on September 27, one year before the end of term in November 2016.

2) CiU and ERC run in separate lists .

3) ERC removes the threat to veto the regional budget, if it prioritizes the creation of state structures and the social area.

4) CiU and ERC will cooperate to strengthen the state structures with a view on an eventual independence, advancing towards a Catalan Treasury and a Catalan Social Security.

5) Mas compromises to prioritize social educational schemes, among other things concluding a law on professional training.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: EPG on January 15, 2015, 04:29:30 pm
The ERC - CiU gap seems a lot narrower than it was when the common list was first proposed, so Mas may not be losing as much.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 16, 2015, 12:34:43 am
Actually, the compromises made by Mas to keep the unity between CiU and ERC have been ridiculous. From a tactical point of view, Mas manages to survive and is still the 'pilot' of the separatist process. However, the strategy to attain the final goals of said process looks unclear. For example, it sounds fairly unrealistic the intent of building "state structures" within an eight month period, given that it's predictable that the Spanish government is going to oppose such move and Rajoy has the tools to prevent it.

According to the news, the path to independence is still undefined in the deal reached by Artur Mas and Oriol Junqueras and Mas evaded talking about deadlines -he had a previous plan to achieve independence within 18 months-. It's considered a priority the cooperation between CiU and ERC in the upcoming municipal elections on May 24, but many ERC candidates don't want CiU as preferential partner and prefer to be open to deals with other parties in the left. Alfred Bosch, the ERC candidate in Barcelona, stated that the deal isn't going to condition his strategy to challenge the CiU mayor Xavier Trias. In the next Catalan elections, there are differences between CiU and ERC on the inclusion of independents (some prominent figures from the civic associations may run). Days ago Mas made an extravagant requirement to ERC, which was accepted: ERC shouldn't include independents if it was rejecting the joint list. Junqueras promised that ERC would never vote a regional budget again, but now agrees to pass this year's budget in exchange for tiny additional items in the reduced social expending -Catalonia is in the lead in expending cuts-. Finally, the deal may suppose that CiU and ERC will cooperate in order that Mas won't stand before the parliamentary commission which investigates the former regional premier Jordi Pujol, accused of tax crimes. Junqueras has advocated for a Catalonia clean of corrupts.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: EPG on January 16, 2015, 08:36:23 pm
OK, thanks. It is not clear to me whether Mas or Junqueras has really conceded more, or if they both gain in expected-value terms by quietly excluding independents and gambling for the leadership of the next government.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 17, 2015, 12:28:56 am
It's a question of power gambling, indeed. On the issue of independents, CiU and ERC would score a goal in hiring people like Carme Forcadell, the Catalan National Assembly (ANC) spokeswoman, to run in their lists. She is a linguist and was once an obscure ERC councilor in Terrassa, near Barcelona. Forcadell is still an ERC member, but she retired from partisan politics when she failed to be reelected in 2007. As the ANC head, she rose to prominence because of her good organisational capacity, evidenced in the 'Prussian' precision in which massive pro-independence demonstrations were conducted. Forcadell is not in bad terms with Artur Mas.

In the Parliament of Catalonia, CiU and ERC 'saved' Artur Mas by the fourth time to stand before the Jordi Pujol parliamentary commission. The hearing was seconded by the rest of parties.



To date, we have the folowing electoral calendar in Spain:

May 24: Regional and Local Elections.

September 27: Elections in Catalonia.

November or December: General Election (Congress of Deputies and Senate).

As said before, I think that every election should have a separate thread in order to not muddling issues too much. However, I'm not sure if I'll have time to post regularly on the separate elections. If I haven't, I won't start a thread on the regional and locals next month -it'd be great if another person wants to-. In any case, I wouldn't start a thread on the Catalan elections before May 25. I hope that the Andalusian premier won't call snap elections, because this would be a total madness.



Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 18, 2015, 04:57:40 am
I'll try to make of summary of relevant news concerning the major parties.

Let's start with PP and the corruption scandals.

Gürtel case prosecutors seek 800 years in jail for 41 suspects:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/16/inenglish/1421428986_419540.html

Quote
The Anticorruption Attorney’s Office wants a 123-year prison term for Francisco Correa, the mastermind behind the massive Gürtel bribes-for-contracts scandal that has tainted the ruling Popular Party (PP) at the national, regional and local levels.

The state’s attorneys are also asking for a 42-year sentence for former PP treasurer Luis Bárcenas, who was involved in the Gürtel network and hoarded €48 million in secret Swiss bank accounts.

Bárcenas also allegedly kept parallel accounts for the conservative party that suggest illegal financing and side payments to top PP officials.

Almost matchless in scope, the Gürtel investigation has taken five years to complete. It involves six regional governments, originally targeted nearly 200 suspects, and reads like a Who’s Who of conservative officials (...)

PP claims to be alien to the corruption network and having transparent accounts, despite prosecutors attest the existence of a parallel accounting which, among other things, served to fund building works in PP headquarters in Madrid.

Days before Mariano Rajoy made a surprise trip to Greece, in order to offer his support to the embattled Antonis Samaras ("promising the impossible generates frustration", said the Spanish PM in Athens), PP National Executive Committee met in Madrid. Several members showed concern because last polls are predicting adverse results for PP in the upcoming regional and locals, which may suppose the loss of several PP bastions (remarkably Madrid and Valencia). The 2011 elections gave PP a huge territorial base of power, which no party has enjoyed in the present democratic period. Mariano Rajoy tried to calm people down, assuring in another and more reduced meeting of the party leadership in Toledo that (according to his controversial polling chief Pedro Arriola) PP is still first with 27-28% of the vote, Podemos is second, a weak (albeit more resistant than its Greek counterpart) PSOE is coming third and Ciudadanos "emerges strongly". Spanish conservatives fear that Ciudadanos, led by the young but already veteran politician Albert Rivera, is going raze PP in the next Catalan elections. Esperanza Aguirre was amongst the most vocal in showing alarm. Aguirre wants to run for Mayor of Madrid, although the decision lies on Rajoy given the pyramidal structure of the party, which doesn't hold primaries. PP organizational secretary Carlos Floriano was appointed as campaign manager. Floriano is a man of María Dolores de Cospedal (PP secretary general and premier of the Castilla-La Mancha region) and is not the brightest of sparks, nor he is particularly eloquent. Maybe that's the reason why Pablo Casado, who is a promising young performer battle-hardened in television talk shows close to Aguirre and José María Aznar, has been appointed as spokesman of the campaign committee.  

Podemos, on the other hand, held yesterday a crowded rally in Seville on the day of its first anniversary. Pablo Iglesias and MEP Teresa Rodríguez were the key speakers. Iglesias accused PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez of "being lost". According to Iglesias, Pedro Sánchez doesn't know if he's in favour or against of a Grand Coalition with PP and he doesn't know which party he's supporting in Greece (Podemos is obviously with Tsipras). Iglesias challenged Andalusian premier Susana Díaz, "who apparently has more command than Pedro Sánchez" in the PSOE, to debate with him. Pablo Iglesias will be with Tsipras in Greece on Jan 22 and Podemos has announced a mass rally in Madrid on Jan 31, which will measure the party's convening power.

Meanwhile, Pedro Sánchez took his "message of change" to Washington. Only PSOE can implement radical democracy in Spain, told Sánchez to Democrats. He met with Obama's chief economic advisor Jason Furman and IMF head Christine Legarde, among other people.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/16/inenglish/1421407447_012734.html


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: politicus on January 18, 2015, 06:55:57 am
There's no answer for those questions. Let's wait until the o


There is of course an answer, we just don't know it yet.

You ended that sentence in the middle of nowhere - unless the o stands for something I don't know.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 18, 2015, 07:24:29 am
LOL. It wasn't intentional leaving that "o" drifting in the water, just a distraction on my part. I guess I wanted to write "let's wait until the outcome of the Greek elections" or something similar. Of course, those questions will have an answer. Sadly, I can't travel into the future, come here and give a prospective answer with the advantage of retrospective ;)


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: EPG on January 18, 2015, 07:30:46 am
Podemos won't govern on its own, so it is hard to answer.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: politicus on January 18, 2015, 07:33:46 am
Podemos won't govern on its own, so it is hard to answer.


Syriza very well may. The principal question of how far left you can actually go without tanking the economy is IMO one of the most central in modern politics. To what degree is leftist politics mere symbolism that inevitably will have to moderated if the party/parties advocating it actually got power and to what degree is it implementable? Although this is of course not the right place/thread to discuss it.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 18, 2015, 11:42:47 am
The question may be relevant in the case of a coalition government involving PSOE and Podemos. I don't think this is the likeliest thing to happen, but anyway.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 18, 2015, 01:20:34 pm
El País released today an interview with Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias, in Seville. Highlights:

- "In the next elections, there will be only two choices: PP and Podemos"

-  After remarking that Pedro Sánchez is "lost", because he doesn't say if he's supporting Syriza or ND, nor clarifies his stance on issues like the reform of Article 135 and tax havens, stated his opposition to Juncker -PSOE didn't vote him- but didn't support a proposal for a motion of censure made by the GUE/NGL in the wake of the 'luxleaks' scandal... Pablo Iglesias assures that he won't have difficulty to deal coalitions with PSOE if the Spanish socialists make an U turn, that is to say: acknowledging that austerity policies "have been a mistake" and assuming that "in this country is necessary to talk about a restructuring of the debt and the dation in payment*".

* In Spain, people evicted from their homes still have to pay the terms of mortgages.

- "Spain is a plurinational reality" and "the solution to the territorial problem (Catalonia) passes through a referendum" and the latter through a "constituent process", which Iglesias deems necessary in order that people can decide on the territorial question and other issues and putting all options on the table.

- Iglesias admits that it's not the same making a platform to run in the EP elections and making a platform to govern. He says the economists with which they are working told them that it's not possible to reduce retirement age to 60 or implementing basic income within two years, as it was in the EP elections manifesto.

- "Ideological definitions serve badly to understand the current situation"

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/01/17/actualidad/1421526937_154439.html

Pedro Sánchez counterattacked from Barcelona:

"Pablo Iglesias is a politician who lies rather than he speaks" referring to the aforementioned interview, in which Iglesias eluded to position himself in the right or in the left (the sentence on ideological definitions) and to detail promises like basic income. "Iglesias ran in the EP elections with a platform which now refuses, he said he was on the left and now not". Sánchez stated that, in contrast with Podemos, PSOE will take decisions once in power such as abolishing: the last labor market reform, the educational reform sponsored by the controversial minister Wert and the local governments reform. Sánchez didn't focus on Catalan problem in Barcelona, but talked about people wanting to build a homeland and bringing their fortunes to Switzerland and Andorra.

http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/01/18/catalunya/1421584831_463820.html

Links in Spanish.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Simfan34 on January 18, 2015, 01:39:01 pm
Podemos will not be allowed to win.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: politicus on January 18, 2015, 01:44:00 pm
Podemos will not be allowed to win.

Strange phrasing. Hope you are not venturing into conspiracy territory.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Thomas from NJ on January 18, 2015, 02:25:12 pm
http://www.abc.es/espana/20150118/abci-avance-encuesta-elecciones-201501172057.html (http://www.abc.es/espana/20150118/abci-avance-encuesta-elecciones-201501172057.html)

PP: 29,3%
Podemos: 21,1%
PSOE: 19,2%
C's: 6,3%
UPyD: 4,8%
IU: 3,7%
CiU: 2,8%
ERC: 1,8%
PNV: 1,3%
Amaiur: 1,0%
Others: 8,7%


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on January 18, 2015, 02:33:08 pm
I must admit I don't really understand the appeal of C's and UpyD. Are they just for people who really really dislike Catalans? I certainly don't understand this new surge by C's. Who are they stealing votes from?

Also lol that Podemos are already running away from their basic income pledge. Wasn't that supposed to be one of Iglesias's biggest pet issues?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: politicus on January 18, 2015, 02:43:01 pm
I must admit I don't really understand the appeal of C's and UpyD. Are they just for people who really really dislike Catalans? I certainly don't understand this new surge by C's. Who are they stealing votes from?

Also lol that Podemos are already running away from their basic income pledge. Wasn't that supposed to be one of Iglesias's biggest pet issues?

Even if their economists had told them it couldn't be financed they should have kept it in their platform and blamed PSOE for not being able to implement it. Leftist parties are often a little too honest about stuff like that.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 18, 2015, 03:57:14 pm
Also lol that Podemos are already running away from their basic income pledge. Wasn't that supposed to be one of Iglesias's biggest pet issues?

The current economic draft, written by economists Juan Torres and Vicenç Navarro, mentions "a state pact against poverty and social exclusion" geared towards the implementation of a minimum guaranteed income. Pablo Iglesias said in the interview that economists told him that such implementation is not going to be possible in the first two years. It can be interpreted as a withdrawal or as a more realistic approach, depending on consumer's taste. It has relation with the question of "how far left you can go..."

I must admit I don't really understand the appeal of C's and UpyD. Are they just for people who really really dislike Catalans? I certainly don't understand this new surge by C's. Who are they stealing votes from?

Well, they dislike Catalan nationalists. Disliking nationalists doesn't imply necessarily disliking Catalans, although dislike of Catalans is common among certain circles. I wouldn't say that it's a feeling shared by a majority but certainly exists, as some past campaigns led by PP against the Catalan statute of devolution demonstrate. Said this, it should be noted that Ciutadans (Ciudadanos in Spanish) is a party founded in Catalonia by Catalan people disliking Catalan nationalism. Only as of recently, C's is starting to increase its territorial implementation in the rest of Spain. With UPyD happens the opposite. Being the stances of both parties quite similar on the basic issues, the party led by Rosa Díez (formerly a prominent member of the Basque socialists) has been always extremely weak in Catalonia because Ciutadans already existed. UPyD appeals secular and liberal people with centralist leanings. UPyD people reject the 'centralist' label and talk about 'symmetric federalism', which means that all regions should have the same competences and treated the same, advocating for a re-devolution of Education and Healthcare competences to the central government. UPyD has been since its foundation a strong advocate for political reform and the fight against corruption. Also, it has a hardline stance on terrorism (the origin of the party is in the Basque Country, people threatened by ETA).

In the case of C's it's a bit more complicated. Ciutadans started as a single-issue party, opposing the Catalan laws on linguistic immersion and what they perceive as a cultural monopoly excercised by the Catalan nationalism. They also advocate for political reform and have a strong anti-corruption stance, although they appear ideologically more inconsistent. Albert Rivera's calls against bankers in the last campaign in Catalonia sound like unconceivable in UPyD spokepersons, whom likely would deem them as 'populist'. However, Albert Rivera has a better appeal among PP voters. The past of Rosa Díez  in PSOE and vocal secularism play against UPyD's chances among conservative voters. Also, Rivera has never been a leftist (it is rumoured that he was once a PP member) and now plays much better than UPyD the card of representing the "new politics" (the young and 'fresh' Rivera has an advantage over the veteran Rosa Díez). Rivera also shows C's as a 'sane' reformist option, in contrast with the 'experiments' of Podemos. Rivera says that C's wants to reform the country, instead of breaking the 'Regime of 1978' implementing a constituent process, and states openness to pact with other parties (PP, PSOE or Podemos) in order to implement the changes they deem neccesary. In Catalonia, C's grew initially at the expense of PSC (voters disillusioned with the PSC-ERC-ICV tripartite governments in 2006 and 2010) and in 2012 they received voters from PSC, PP and even from CiU in the Barcelona metropolitan region. Now C's seems to be eroding further the PP voter base. In the rest of Spain, the growth seems to be primarily at the expense of PP. In the EP elections, C's tended to perform better in PP urban strongholds.  


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on January 18, 2015, 04:37:58 pm
Cheers! I was guessing they were eroding PP, but I knew they had moved populist left last Catalan election. I also kind of supposed that C's base in Catalonia was Castillian implants rather than the indigenous population, but that may not be true?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 18, 2015, 04:50:00 pm
Cheers! I was guessing they were eroding PP, but I knew they had moved populist left last Catalan election. I also kind of supposed that C's base in Catalonia was Castillian implants rather than the indigenous population, but that may not be true?

If with 'Castilian implants' you mean people living in metropolitan Barcelona and the region around Tarragona coming from other parts of Spain -primarily their descendants, because the big immigration was decades ago- the generic answer is yes. In the Catalonian inner countryside, where 'indigenous' population is supposed to be a majority, C's performs poorly. However, it's not strange to find that the sons and grandsons of immigrants from other regions are pro-independence. Catalonia is extremely complex and diverse.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 20, 2015, 03:51:55 am
Tension between PSOE and IU paves the way for snap elections in Andalusia.

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Andalusian premier Susana Díaz (PSOE) left open the possibility to call elections in Andalusia, the most populated region of Spain, bringing forward the end of term one year. In previous weeks, Díaz warned that  the continuity of her administration was conditioned  to not crossing what she calls the "red line", the "stability" of the PSOE-IU coalition which supports the regional government. Yesterday, she said by the first time that condition is not fulfilled: "we need a strong and stable government, and at the moment there's not stability". At the same time, regional papers spread that Susana Díaz (40) is 3 months pregnant, although she has decoupled electoral decisions of her pregnancy: "I'm very happy. It's something that concerns me and my family".

The estrangement between PSOE and IU is apparently motivated by the decision to call a referendum among the -always uneasy- IU membership on the continuity of the leftist party in the government. Socialists are upset with IU because that referendum means setting an "expiry date" to the coalition government. Also, another subject of discrepancy was that Susana Díaz prohibited deputy premier Diego Valderas (IU) to trip to Tinduf (Alger), in order to visit the refugee camps and giving support to the Western Sahara cause. Socialists understood that trip would suppose creating tension with Morocco, a key country for trade relations and security. IU regional coordinator Antonio Maillo said that order was "indecent". People at PSOE also blame national deputy Alberto Garzón for recent tensions, because the likely new lider of IU is pursuing an approach to Podemos. Regional polling suggests that Podemos emerges slightly less stronger than in other regions, but it's in a position to break the two-party system and be decisive in post-election deals. MEP Teresa Rodríguez emerges as the likely Podemos head in Andalusia. Rodríguez belonged to the Anticapitalist Left (IZAN), a small far-left party which recently agreed to dissolve into Podemos, and to the faction critic to Pablo Iglesias. Anyway Iglesias and critics seem to have reached an agreement, given that Podemos has some organisational problems in Andalusia.

However, others say the motivation is the ambition of Susana Díaz, who might be planning to run against Pedro Sánchez in the PSOE primaries which will decide the candidate in the next general election. Or maybe Susana Díaz, the woman "who apparently has more command than Pedro Sánchez in PSOE" (Iglesias dixit), wants to strengthen her position in Andalusia by catching rivals unaware.  There have been multiple disputes between the coalition partners, but recently the regional budget was passed and that was considered "the best signal of stability". A snap election would deprive IU to fulfill some promises, like basic income and a land bank, so the regional leadership is trying to calm down the waters. PP, on the other hand, has a new leader who is a complete unknown and it's not faring good in recent polls.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on January 20, 2015, 04:01:25 pm
Wow so the only regions not having elections this year are the Basque Country and Galicia? Intense.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 20, 2015, 06:48:14 pm
Wow so the only regions not having elections this year are the Basque Country and Galicia? Intense.

Basque and Galician governments look stable, let us give thanks to the Lord.

Apparently, people in Pedro Sánchez's entourage take for granted that Susana Díaz is going to call soon -as soon as this week. The election would be in March (on day 22 or 29). Podemos and PP would be wrong-footed. The Pablo Iglesias' party is still consolidating its territorial implementation in small and middle Andalusian towns. PP's new regional leader, a certain Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, is a complete unknown -well, I know that he's a pupil of Soraya Sáez de Santamaría, the Spanish Deputy PM, and little more- and seems no rival for Susana Díaz. The IU regional coordinator denied yesterday that there's instability in the government, and said he's convinced that there's not going to be a snap election. We'll see.

In other news, former PP's treasurer Luis Bárcenas would be released on bail paying 200,000 Euro. Bárcenas, who has his properties seized, will try to collect money among family and friends.

Good news for Rajoy: IMF predicts that Spanish economy to grow 2%.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/20/inenglish/1421749237_534488.html

Quote
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) improved its growth forecast for Spain for the sixth time in a row on Tuesday, predicting that the economy would expand 2% in 2015.

Only Spain and the United States saw their prospects revised upwards in an otherwise pessimistic report that lowered global economic growth forecasts to 3.5% for 2015 and 3.7% for 2016, a 0.3% drop for each year.

The new figures were released as part of the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report, which is produced quarterly.

The organization’s forecast coincides with Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s own claims about Spanish economic growth this year.

And José María Aznar is going to come in rescue:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/20/inenglish/1421751020_638963.html

Quote
With a busy election year now underway, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and his team have decided to use everything they have to reach out to their traditional voting base: the ultra conservatives.

The Popular Party (PP) fears a disastrous race and has called on its members to close ranks. Not only is the PP trying to appeal to conservatives by sending out messages to victims of terrorism, it also wants to give former Prime Minister José María Aznar a bigger role in the campaign (...)

(oh my God ;D )


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: MaxQue on January 21, 2015, 01:11:09 am
Is José Maria Aznar an asset or an hindrance?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 21, 2015, 04:51:54 am
Aznar is an asset to keep hardcore conservatives loyal to PP. Aside from that, Rajoy will focus himself on the narrative of the economic recovery and the "stability". Needless to say that Rajoy and Aznar dislike each other.

On the left, two lists will compete for the leadership in Madrid representing the two souls of Podemos -although they reject such terminology or talking of internal dissidence-. The advocates of preserving the asambleary spirit of the beginnings will be represented in the list topped by Miguel Urbán (Podemos Ganar Madrid), one of the founders of Podemos coming from the Anticapitalist Left and personal friend of Pablo Iglesias. Urbán calls himself being representative of the "protest Podemos", whereas the newly elected national leadership seems to be moving away from the initial characterisation of Podemos as protest party, in order to become in a government alternative.  The list backed by the Pablo Iglesias' team (Claro que Podemos) will be topped by Luis Alegre, candidate to be the next regional secretary general. Alegre is professor pf philosophy in the Complutense University and member of the founding core as well. He wants to turn Madrid in "the metaphor of Spain" for being one of the big places in dispute and "an absolute cornerstone in the political challenge". Alegre wants to organise the party to kick La Casta -which in Madrid has the makings of a mafia, he says- out the institutions. "The guideline is transforming the social majority in a political majority". Carolina Bescansa -member of the national leadership, sociologist and Podemos' polling chief- talked about "a Podemos to win and a Podemos to protest", remarking the differences between both candidacies.

In Barcelona, the Guanyem project led by anti-eviction activist Ada Colau made a draft agreement with ICV-EUiA, Podemos, Procés Constituent and Equo in order to run a list for the municipal elections. Colau will top the candidacy and the rest of list members will be elected in open primaries which will be called next month. The third place in the list is reserved to ICV. The current ICV spokesman in Barcelona Ricard Gomà decided to quit professional politics after 12 years as councilor. His renunciation helped to pave the way to the deal. The candidacy intends to connect with social movements and the construction of alternatives "already underway" in some neighbourhoods, in order to "return the city to the hands of its neighbours." Previous polls suggest that the list would be well positioned for the mayoral race.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Donnie on January 21, 2015, 07:16:59 am
From which parties are the Podemos voters ?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on January 21, 2015, 11:24:25 am
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Podemos's surge took a large swathe from IU (the leftists - brown), UpyD (anti-nationalist liberals - purple) and healthy amounts from the major two. They also seem to have activated many youths who would otherwise not vote.

In the regional votes, the rise of Podemos has often washed away or diluted many regional leftists, greens, direct democracy activists, protest parties, regionalists and liberals.

Does Vox still exist Velasco? Why did they - and other rightist threats to PP fail?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: EPG on January 21, 2015, 03:26:35 pm
Didn't Vox do really poorly in the European elections? They often act as a primary for new challengers in Europe.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 21, 2015, 04:05:14 pm
From which parties are the Podemos voters ?

Take a look into the thread linked below. Podemos is now clearly targetting the PSOE's voting base. The battle is on the centre-left.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=181490.100


Does Vox still exist Velasco? Why did they - and other rightist threats to PP fail?


Yes, it still exists. After failing to win a seat by less than 2,000 votes in the EP elections, it's like the Vox Party would have disappeared. I think some members have left and now Vox doesn't seem to represent a serious threat. However, there are still conservatives angry at PP because of corruption, going back on abortion or higher taxes (VAT and others). The government presented a tax reform that supposedly is going lower income tax this year (strange brackets; lowering includes the rich). I think the main threat is that C's manages to attract former PP voters on the centre or some angry people on the right. On the other hand, if C's manages to get into regional parliaments or councils in places like Madrid and Valencia, PP might find an ally. Who knows.



Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 21, 2015, 04:51:01 pm
New poll: Sigma Dos / Tele Cinco.

PP 29.4%, Podemos 26.2%, PSOE 19.4%, IU 4.7%, C's 4.6%, UPyD 4.2%, ERC 2.7%, CiU 2.7%

http://www.electograph.com/search/label/Generales


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Donnie on January 21, 2015, 04:59:30 pm
So in one year from establishing to today's 26% in the poll above.
This is quite uncommon for a big european country.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on January 21, 2015, 07:20:58 pm
Podemos's surge took a large swathe from IU (the leftists - brown), UpyD (anti-nationalist liberals - purple) and healthy amounts from the major two. They also seem to have activated many youths who would otherwise not vote.
I would argue that Podemos actually gathered very few previous UPyD voters. The appeals are simply too far apart. Correct me if I'm wrong, Velasco ?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on January 21, 2015, 07:24:07 pm
well, upyd did start to crater in the polls around podemos's rise. I imagine it was picking up a healthy amount of protest votes from the perpetually dissatisfied (and remember Diaz is an ex-PSOE person) secular left.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on January 21, 2015, 07:30:44 pm
well, upyd did start to crater in the polls around podemos's rise. I imagine it was picking up a healthy amount of protest votes from the perpetually dissatisfied (and remember Diaz is an ex-PSOE person) secular left.
Polls don't work that way. When a party starts to rise at the same time as another starts to fall, it doesn't mean the votes are trasnferring from the latter to the former. Concomitance doesn't equal correlation. But I may be wrong, it may actually be the case in that particular instance, we'll have to ask our more advised Spanish members. But don't expect it to always work that way, but I'm sure you know better.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 22, 2015, 04:51:51 am
Podemos's surge took a large swathe from IU (the leftists - brown), UpyD (anti-nationalist liberals - purple) and healthy amounts from the major two. They also seem to have activated many youths who would otherwise not vote.
I would argue that Podemos actually gathered very few previous UPyD voters. The appeals are simply too far apart. Correct me if I'm wrong, Velasco ?

According to the CIS survey (October 2014), Podemos' voters come from: PSOE 28%, "Others" 22%, Abstainers 17%, IU 15%, PP 7% and UPyD 1% . The rest voted "Blank", "null" or "couldn't vote".

In relative terms, the calculation on "vote as remembered in 2011" variable shows that 46% of those who voted IU were switching to Podemos, 29% UPyD, 25% PSOE and 6% PP.

In short: former UPyD voters represent a very small share of the present Podemos' support, but in relative terms the loss has had a substantial impact in the small UPyD's voting base.

http://politikon.es/2014/11/05/podemos-y-la-centralidad-en-la-izquierda/

In that website you can read other analyses on the Podemos' vote, for example this one:

http://politikon.es/2014/12/10/quien-apoya-podemos-una-radiografia-de-votantes/

Podemos' support is solid among all groups of age except the elder (>65). By educational level, Podemos has a high support among people with secondary and university studies, but low among people with primary studies or those without studies. Podemos is strong in urban centres, but has a low level of support in small towns ( pop. <2000). The CIS' "social class" categories are quite strange, and I'm not sure if we can extract conclusions on them. In any case, the profile of Podemos' voters is interclassist.

This graph compares the profile of Podemos (purple), PSOE (red), PP (blue), IU (green) and UPyD (pink) on age ("edad"), educational ("estudios"), country/urban ("campo/ciudad") and socioeconomic ("clase social") categories:

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Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 22, 2015, 05:22:23 am
Lots of news these days. Luis Bárcenas gathered the bail money and leaves jail today. Opposition forces are indignant, while Mariano Rajoy and PP fear the "Bárcenas show".

Unemployment decreased by 477k in 2014, with nearly 444k new labour contracts (temporary and precarious in an overwhelming proportion).

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PP reintroduces life sentence despite opposition rejection:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/21/inenglish/1421853995_633290.html

Quote
Despite objections from opposition lawmakers, ruling Popular Party (PP) deputies were expected late Wednesday to pass the government’s changes to the penal code which, among other things, will introduce life prison sentences for dangerous offenders with the possibility for review.

The bill is expected to go to the Senate before being sent back to Congress for final approval by summer, according to PP officials, who hold the majority in both chambers. Judges could start handing down life terms as early as next year.

Maximum prison terms in Spain are currently set at 40 years without review for the most dangerous crimes. Under the new law, review of life sentences can take place after an inmate serves between 25 and 35 years of their term and depending on the crime.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on January 22, 2015, 10:00:01 am
Maximum prison terms in Spain are currently set at 40 years without review for the most dangerous crimes. Under the new law, review of life sentences can take place after an inmate serves between 25 and 35 years of their term and depending on the crime.
Inb4 'Muricans come in saying "Whaaaaat??"


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 22, 2015, 11:03:43 am
Inb4 'Muricans come in saying "Whaaaaat??"

http://es.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Murican

Quote
"Those Muricans think they can just push everyone around. What a bunch of arrogant imperialistic bastards!"

More news. Former PM José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero confirms that he met with Pablo Iglesias and Iñigo Errejón from Podemos. The meeting was facilitated by former minister of Defense and prominent territorial 'baron' José Bono, who defended Iglesias' father before the Tribunal of Public Order in Franco times. They talked about Latin America and the Euro and apparently had "significant differences". ZP commented days later that meeting with Pedro Sánchez. Pablo Iglesias said from Brussels that he would be "delighted" in having a chat with the current PSOE leader. Pedro Sánchez, who says that there are "objective reasons" for calling snap elections in Andalusia, sees "no reason" to have a meeting with the leader of Podemos.

Chattering classes say that ZP and Bono would prefer Susana Díaz over Pedro Sánchez, but I can't confirm the gossip. Zapatero, who backed Sánchez against Madina for PSOE leadership, says that Díaz is "by far the best current ruler". Zapatero and Sánchez had distanced each other since the latter proposed to counter reform the controversial reform of Article 135, agreed between PSOE and PP by the end of ZP's term.

El Mundo has an extensive coverage (they must be rubbing their hands ;D )

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/01/21/54bf7606268e3e97278b456f.html

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/01/22/54c0cf1d22601d5d6b8b4572.html

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/01/22/54c017c022601d270f8b457a.html
 


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on January 22, 2015, 04:00:47 pm
Velasco, what is the status of nuclear power in Spain? Have Podemos and the other new parties found a position on the plants?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 23, 2015, 03:42:52 am
Velasco, what is the status of nuclear power in Spain? Have Podemos and the other new parties found a position on the plants?

According to the Spanish Nuclear Security Council (CSN):

http://www.csn.es/index.php/en/nuclear-power-plants

Quote
In Spain there are six nuclear power plants in operation.  Two of these, Almaraz and Ascó, are twin unit plants, as a result of which there are eight reactors in total.  There is also one plant, José Cabrera, which has now been definitively shut down.
These eight electricity generating groups are of two different types: pressurised water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR).  Within the PWR group, the order of seniority is as follows: Almaraz, with two groups (1980 and 1983); Ascó, also with two groups (1982 and 1985); Vandellós II (1987) and Trillo, the last plant to enter operation in Spain (1987).
As regards the boiling water reactor (BWR) plants, the oldest is Santa María de Garoña (1970), followed by Cofrentes (1984).
The Spanish plants produce around 20 % of the electricity consumed in the country, depending on the number and duration of their refuelling outages, which vary from one year to twenty four months.

There is specific info of every plant available in English language at the CSN website. According to the World Nuclear Association (the 'nuclear lobby', in other words), "government commitment to the future of nuclear energy in Spain has been uncertain, but has firmed up as the cost of subsidising renewables becomes unaffordable."

In 1984, Felipe González administration (PSOE) approved a nuclear moratorium. Since then, PSOE's stance is to keep centrals in operation until the end of service life, as well opposes to build new plants. In 2008, the Zapatero administration promised to close all power plants at the end of their lifetime and to promote research in renewable energies. By that time, the government implemented a subsidy policy for renewables and passed the Sustainable Economy Act in 2010, which intended a 20% reduction in greenhouse emissions in 2020 and a similar increase in the use of renewables. Some environmentalist organisations deemed the initiative as "contradictory" and "unsustainable" (Ecologistas en Acción). In 2011, the Act was amended by CiU initiative in order to extend the lifetime of nuclear plants beyond 40 years if the CSN reported favourably. Once in power, the Rajoy administration suppressed subsidies for renewables. PP opposed to the closing of the Santa María de Garoña plant, the oldest in service, initially planned in 2013.

Nearly all  parties, including Podemos, support the nuclear moratorium and the gradual closure of nuclear plants. Podemos in particular supports a "programmed closing" of plants, "assuring employment alternatives for workers". As well Podemos wants to increase investment projects in renewables to reduce greenhouse emissions, a programmed closing of coal and gas plants, supports energy self-generation, ban on fracking, etc.

http://podemos.info/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Programa-Podemos.pdf

PP, CiU and UPyD advocate for "reopening the debate" on nuclear energy.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 23, 2015, 04:17:38 am
Luis Bárcenas left prison yesterday evening and spoke in third person: "I have no message to Rajoy (...) I listened his advice and I thank him, Luis has been truly strong." Bárcenas was referencing a SMS message in which the Spanish PM advised him to be "strong" in the face of adversity. In July 2013, El Mundo released messages crossed between Rajoy and Bárcenas leaked by the former PP treasurer, angry because PP's parliamentary spokesman Alfonso Alonso called him "offender". Alonso replaced Ana Mato as minister of Healthcare; Mato was forced to resign after judge Pablo Ruz called her to testify as "lucrative participant" in the Gürtel corruption network.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/22/inenglish/1421936207_172542.html

Quote
(...)High Court Judge Pablo Ruz signed the release order after Bárcenas’s lawyer Javier Gómez de Liaño handed over copies of bank deposits and transfers reflecting that the bail had been paid.

Under the conditions of his release, the former PP senator, who faces a wide range of corruption, money-laundering and tax evasion charges, will have to report three days a week to the High Court and is prohibited from leaving the country.

His family, along with scores of journalists and photographers, gathered at the entrance of Soto del Real penitentiary outside Madrid on Thursday afternoon waiting for him to emerge. Guillermo Bárcenas, the defendant’s son, said his father was calm and that the family was now “stronger than ever” since the PP corruption scandal broke.

His release has sparked concerns among many PP officials, who know they are facing a tough election year amid ongoing graft investigations and fear that a media circus will break out while Bárcenas is out on bail.

Among the nine family members who put up the money are Bárcenas’s siblings, aunt, mother-in-law and brother-in-law. The money was paid in five installments totaling €110,000, while the rest was deposited at a bank branch (...)


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 25, 2015, 04:00:10 am
PP was holding a political convention this weekend marked by the Aznar comeback, attacks on Podemos and the shadow of Luis Bárcenas, wafting in the air.

On Friday former PM José María Aznar led the way to PP leadership, as well posed some rhetorical questions: "Where is PP?" "Does PP aspire to win?" Aznar answered both saying that PP has the obligation to win the next elections, because it's "the best instrument to defend the interests of Spaniards" but it mustn't "neglect discouragement and suspicion". Aznar advised Rajoy and his entourage a "back to basics", as well keeping the party's head up. "Spain needs more PP, more State, more Nation and more unity, no less (...) needs more determination against those who want to destroy it. More rule of law, more reforms and more confidence". In his view it's not the future of PP what is at stake, "it's the future of Spain". Because of that, he encourages the party for not accepting "defiance" nor "separatism" and demanded "a credible project" for the country, "unity and courage". On corruption Aznar said that "it's a cancer that we shouldn't tolerate" and warned that "every one must answer for their actions", claiming that he can answer for his own actions "looking into the eyes". Former PM remembered terrorism victims on the anniversary of the killing of Gregorio Ordóñez, a PP councilor in San Sebastián killed by ETA 20 years ago.

PP secretary general María Dolores de Cospedal, who maintains that the country's choices are between "PP or nothing", seemed to reply Aznar. "Unity is the pillar of our strength. We have a project. Here is PP to serve Spaniards".

Former Madrid premier Esperanza Aguirre charged against Podemos, saying that it's a mixture of "the worst of the most archaic communism and the worst of its demagoguery". Aguirre advocated for a "deep ideological rearming", stressing that "all of we are dispensable, but not our ideals and principles (...) even more when separatists want to break Spain (...) and populists want to end the Spanish State".

On Saturday Mariano Rajoy continued the charge against Podemos: "What system they want to change?". Rajoy argued that system allowed some Podemos leaders to study in public schools and get scholarship grants, in allusion to a controversy around a research contract won by Iñigo Errejón -who is a political scientist and the campaign manager of Podemos- at the Malaga University. The research director was a professor from that university who is in Podemos too, and some media claimed there were irregularities in that contract. Some mayors and village councilors took the stand, in a scenography intended to be a reply to the new rival: "I am a mayor. I'm electrician. I belong to the electricians' caste".

MEP Esteban González Pons, who often chats with Pablo Iglesias at Strasbourg, followed: "I believe in a Spain without castes and saviours", making a distinction between "the Constitutional Spain" and the Podemos "Soviet Spain". "Corrupts are the excuse for extremists to liquidate democracy"

Yesterday night, I watched Pablo Iglesias in TV and he was smiling while watching some cuts from that conference. He thinks the more PP attacks, the better for his party.

Luis Bárcenas, on the other hand, said that Mariano Rajoy was aware since the beginning of the existence of a parallel accounting to finance PP.

On PSOE, Andalusian premier Susana Díaz stated that her priority is Andalusia and not the socialist primaries in July. She's currently pregnant and will give birth by that month. Podemos is trying to organise the campaign against the clock, because everybody is certain that Díaz is going to call. There is concern in PP because Andalusian people doesn't know regional leader Juan Manuel Moreno. PP assures that internal polling places conservatives trailing Susana Díaz by 3%, so they think they can compete.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 25, 2015, 05:47:21 am
Some regional and local polls.

Andalusia: Regional Elections. Invymark/La Sexta.

PSOE 39.6%, PP 29.4%, Podemos 15.2%, IU 8.7%, UPyD 3%

Sample size: 1200. Fieldwork: Jan 19.

Basque Country: Municipal Elections. Ikerfel/El Correo, Diario Vasco

Bilbao (29 councilors): PNV 40.3% (13-14 councilors), Podemos 15.4% (5), EH Bildu 11.1% (3-4), PSOE 10.1% (3), PP 9.4% (3), IU 4.7% (0-1), UPyD 4.1% (-)

Donostia-San Sebastián (27 councilors) PNV 29.4% (9), PSOE 18.2% (5-6), EH Bildu 17.9% (5-6), Podemos 14.6% (4-5), PP 10.1% (3), IU 4.3% (-), UPyD 1%

Vitoria-Gasteiz (27 councilors): PP 18.5% (6), PNV 18.4% (6), Podemos 16.3% (5), EH Bildu 14.3% (4-5), PSOE 13.3% (4), UPyD 5.3% (0-1), IU 4.7% (0-1).

Council threshold: 5%

Sample: 3000 (all Basque Country). Fieldwork: Jan 7-13.

Edit: The poll estimates 0-1 councilors for IU in Bilbao. It also estimates results for the Juntas Generales (provincial legislatures): clear PNV lead in Biscay, Podemos comes second; PNV-EH Bildu draw in Gipuzkoa, Podemos third; PNV-Podemos draw in Alava, EH Bildu comes in a close third.

http://www.electograph.com/2015/01/jj-gg-pais-vasco-enero-2015-sondeo.html


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: EPG on January 25, 2015, 12:45:52 pm
Is it fair to say that the Podemos lists' performance at local level will be expected to be lower than their true national level?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Boston Bread on January 25, 2015, 01:39:18 pm
Is it fair to say that the Podemos lists' performance at local level will be expected to be lower than their true national level?
It's true of SYRIZA (not being as strong below the national level) so I think it would hold for Podemos, a similar type of party.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 25, 2015, 04:35:07 pm
Is it fair to say that the Podemos lists' performance at local level will be expected to be lower than their true national level?

At local level in particular, it's likely that Podemos will perform lower because of some factors. First of all, Podemos leadership decided not to run under the party banner in municipal elections for strategic reasons. Territorial implementation out of the main cities is not complete and, above all, people at national leadership thought they wouldn't be able to have control on local lists -they feared careerists infiltrating in them, among other things-. Instead, Podemos is going to promote or support local independent lists. They can run lists with other left parties on a local basis, but the candidacies must have a 'civic' independent character, never be formal coalitions. That rule has an exception in Barcelona, where Podemos will run in a coalition with ICV-EUiA and other groups into the Guanyem ("Let's Win") project. Local pollng is asking for Podemos anyway, and likely they will be present in the main cities under 'white labels'.

To the contrary, Podemos will run under its banner in regional elections. As well, they can run as Podemos for the Juntas Generales in the Basque Country and the Cabildos (insular councils) in the Canaries. In Andalusia, there is the Susana Díaz factor (the woman is popular) and the problems faced by Podemos to implement its presence in a large territory where small and medium sized towns have a substantial weight. 


Title: Andalusian elections on March 22
Post by: Velasco on January 26, 2015, 02:01:20 am
Confirmed. Andalusian premier Susana Díaz phoned yesterday evening IU regional coordinator Antonio Maíllo, in order to put an end to the coalition government. Election date is set on March 22.

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Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 26, 2015, 02:56:50 am
It's true of SYRIZA (not being as strong below the national level) so I think it would hold for Podemos, a similar type of party.

That comment made me remember a yesterday's article stressing the five differences and two similarities between Podemos and Syriza.

Differences:

1) Radical Left vs. ideological transversality.

While the party led Alexis Tsipras is positioned on the classical left-right ideological axis, Podemos seeks for "the centrality of the stage" because, according to Íñigo Errejón, "the classic divide doesn't create hegemony".

2) Alphabet soup or political party?

Syriza started to walk in 2004 and it was a coalition until thee 2012 election. Podemos rejected the coalition formula since the beginning. In past autumn's foundational convention, Podemos made clear that it won't participate in "an alphabet soup nor in a negotiation between parties". Actually, Syriza is what IU intended to be since it was founded in 1986.

3) International affiliation.

Syriza belongs to the European Left party, which Podemos hasn't joined in spite of being part of the GUE/NGL group in the EP.

4) Electoral growth.

Between 2004 and 2009 elections Syriza grew slowly, getting around 5% of the vote. It was in 2012 when the Tsipras' party went up. Podemos got 8% in the first elections they contested, only 4 months before being established as a 'movement' -it wasn't a party until the October convention- and polls say now that it's disputing the first place... only one year after the inaugural meeting at a theatre in Lavapiés (in the centre of Madrid)!

5) Alexis Tsipras and Pablo Iglesias.

The career of Alexis Tsipras began at the university, he was a youth leader in the then powerful Communist Party and soon became in a prominent political figure, topping a list for the Athens mayoralty and getting into parliament. Pablo Iglesias was always linked to politics from the sidelines, he focused first on his studies rather than institutional politics. Since 2012, he was starting to be known by the public -albeit in a limited way- producing his own political show; later he reached a broader audience by participating in political talk shows at generalist channels. He only entered electoral politics in 2014.

Similarities

1) Podemos and Syriza have moderated stances on the debt and share a similar analysis on the solution of the problem, albeit the magnitudes of the debt are different in Spain (100%) and Greece (175%).

2) Podemos and Syriza advocate for the end of austerity and use similar rhetoric when referring to the infamous Troika and the "austericide".

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/Podemos-Syriza-diferencias-similitudes_0_348915514.html

On the Podemos October convention, there's an article in Newsweek that you might find useful:

http://www.newsweek.com/2014/10/31/podemosradical-party-turning-spanish-politics-head-279018.html



Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: swl on January 26, 2015, 06:48:12 am
It seems to me that Podemos has also some a lot in common with the M5S. Are they organized like a classic party (Syriza) or do they try and use online/direct democracy like the Five Stars Movement?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 26, 2015, 06:56:32 am
It seems to me that Podemos has also some a lot in common with the M5S. Are they organized like a classic party (Syriza) or do they try and use online/direct democracy like the Five Stars Movement?

On the use of the Internet, I'd say Podemos people is more savvy than the Grillo troupe. In that regard, they are more similar to Potami than Syriza. As for the political message, that of Podemos goes beyond the Grillo's "Vafanculo!", even though Pablo Iglesias et alii tend to simplify too much when speaking in public.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 27, 2015, 04:46:05 am
Are they organized like a classic party (Syriza) or do they try and use online/direct democracy like the Five Stars Movement?

I didn't reply that part. Sorry, swl. At organisational level, Podemos has right now a mixture of both. As you can read in the paragraphs quoted below, there was a debate in the foundational convention on the organisational model between opposite sides. Now Podemos is electing local and regional executives throughout Spain.

http://www.newsweek.com/2014/10/31/podemosradical-party-turning-spanish-politics-head-279018.html

Quote
The greater hope for Podemos’s opponents, perhaps, is of a rift between rival power blocs in the party. Having rather put the cart before the horse in May, the citizens’ assembly in Madrid was part of a two-month process to establish a comprehensive policy programme and internal party structure, and it has highlighted competing factions and approaches within the party. Pablo Iglesias and his allies have proposed a relatively centralised party structure and executive leadership, against the wishes of some militants who wish to see “all power to the circulos”. Iglesias’s team also faced criticism for proposing to skip municipal elections in the spring to focus all energy on the 2015 general election. “We did not come into politics to have a symbolic role,” Iglesias said in his speech. “We are here to win, and to form a government.” (...)

Otherwise, the commitment to direct democracy at the Palacio Vistalegre was substantial, if somewhat bewildering for the technophobic. Podemos have succeeded so far in part because of the weekly circulos in town squares, but also through online participation on the party’s web forums, on Reddit, and via Facebook – and they recently trialled the use of Appgree, a smartphone application whereby users in the bullring or watching at home could ask questions, make proposals, and vote on each other’s answers. The party’s policy programme for the general election is likewise an attempt to implement open-source, direct democracy: anyone could write a proposal document and upload them to the party website, and the proposals were then lobbied for, discussed, and finally, voted on. Almost 40,000 people voted on the online proposals.


Podemos sees the triumph of Syriza as a new political era that will come to Spain:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/26/inenglish/1422267821_418365.html

Quote
Podemos, Spain’s anti-austerity party, sees “a new period” opening up after radical leftist group Syriza sailed to victory in the Greek elections on Sunday.

“The unfair and inefficient budget cut policies have been defeated by Greek voters despite the fear campaign,” said Íñigo Errejón, Podemos’ number two official, in statements to EL PAÍS.

“Blackmail has not triumphed in Greece, meaning it will be more difficult for it to triumph in Spain,” said Errejón, the party’s secretary for political affairs.

“The Greeks are finally going to get a Greek government, not an Angela Merkel delegate,” added Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias.
(...)
“Hope is here,” Iglesias wrote on Twitter, mirroring Syriza’s own message following Sunday’s results: “Hope has won!”

Both anti-austerity parties have been playing up their ties: Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras was in Spain on the day that Pablo Iglesias became secretary general of Podemos, and Iglesias was in Athens last week at Syriza’s closing campaign rally.

Yet Iglesias is aware that going too far with the relationship could be detrimental to Podemos if Syriza’s performance in office falls below expectations.

“We are putting some distance between us and them because Greece and Spain are in different situations,” says Errejón. “Spain is stronger, its response capacity is greater than Greece’s.”

Instead, Podemos would rather restrict the similarities to the election results. As Iglesias recently stated on the television network La Sexta: “2015 will be the year of change in Spain, as in Greece.”

Rajoy, on his part, closed PP political convention warning Spaniards to not play "Russian Roulette" with Podemos:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/26/inenglish/1422290637_539732.html

Quote
We cannot gamble away our children’s future on a Russian roulette of frivolity, incompetence and populism. We cannot,” said Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, using a play on words (“we cannot” is “no podemos” in Spanish).


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 27, 2015, 05:17:33 am
The graph shows the regional election results between 1982 and 2012. It's normal that Podemos doesn't appear, because it didn't exist. They will run in Andalusia, of course ;)

One of the main motivations of Susana Díaz is proving that Podemos can be beaten at the polls, as well she seeks weaken the IU and testing herself on the electoral ground -she replaced premier José Antonio Griñán in 2013, who ran as candidate in the previous election and later resigned in the wake of the ERE scandal.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/26/inenglish/1422272758_563431.html

Quote
The call for the early vote means Andalusia will become the first regional measure of the strength of the Socialists (PSOE) and the national ruling Popular Party (PP) – the two forces that have led the Spanish political scene in recent decades – as they face the growing challenge represented by the rise of new anti-austerity party Podemos.

Relations between Díaz and Maíllo have never been smooth. On Friday, they held a meeting to discuss a range of rocky issues, including the IU’s plans to organize a referendum among its members this summer on whether to leave the coalition with the Socialists if Díaz’s government failed to push a series of reforms through parliament, including introducing minimum payments to cover basic utilities for all Andalusians.

The elections in March will also serve as a bellwether for the IU’s up-and-coming national leader Alberto Garzón, who could become the group’s candidate in the general elections. In recent months, Garzón has been edging toward some of Podemos’s social policies, while distancing himself from the Socialists, the IU’s traditional political partner over the past decade.

After communicating her decision to Maíllo, Díaz telephoned Socialist secretary general Pedro Sánchez, who offered his support in the regional campaign.

Governed by the PSOE for more than 25 years, Andalusia has long been a Socialist stronghold. But the party’s reputation has been severely weakened over the years by a series of arrests of past officials, and charges filed at the Supreme Court against Díaz’s two predecessors, Manuel Chaves (1990-2009) and José Antonio Griñán (2009-2013), in connection to a fraud scheme that siphoned money from public funds set aside to help ailing businesses pay severance to laid-off workers.

In making her decision to call early elections, Díaz also weighed in the Podemos factor. Even though Podemos has made headway in many provinces across Spain, its structure in Andalusia is not well organized. Its leader Teresa Rodríguez, who comes from the Anti-Capitalist Left group, is part of an internal sector that has been critical of Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias.

Díaz also took into consideration Podemos’s showing in Andalusian opinion polls, which is not as high as in other parts of the country. Voter intention surveys place Podemos in third place behind the Socialists and PP. The regional premier wants to help galvanize the PSOE, which will faces a tough general election in November, by showing the Socialists’ strong standing in Andalusia.

It's possible that MEP Teresa Rodríguez, who will be in all likelihood the next regional secretary, doesn't run as candidate. Podemos will hold primaries soon. Some locally famous persons or even professor Juan Torres (co-writer of the Podemos economic draft) were mentioned as possible candidates.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 27, 2015, 09:38:39 am
Reactions to the Syriza's victory in Greece in the Spanish media.

El País (centre-left, PSOE) “agitation in Europe”; ABC (old-fashioned conservative monarchist, PP): “Populism Takes Over Greece”; Cinco Días (economic paper, shares media group with El País): “Greece Shakes Europe”; La Vanguardia (Barcelona, pro-CiU): “Greece Defies Merkel”; El Mundo (centre-right, PP): “Greece Defies The Troika”; the best headline belongs to La Razón (conservative, PP): “Disgreece: Greeks run headlong into the populist abyss”.

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Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on January 27, 2015, 11:08:29 am
La Razón's subheadline is 'nos gusta España'? LOL.

Oh great posts btw. Please continue.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: EPG on January 27, 2015, 02:14:14 pm
La Razón's subheadline is 'nos gusta España'? LOL.

Oh great posts btw. Please continue.

Yeah, I agree this is a good series of posts. Thank you.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 28, 2015, 06:00:34 am
OK, thanks.

Reactions in Spain included political parties, of course. Rajoy sent a message to Tsipras with the usual moderate and institutional tone, hoping that "the electoral result results in the formation of a stable government committed to the European integration project shared by Greece and Spain." Minister of Economy Luis de Guindos stressed that the situation in Spain is "totally different" to the one is suffering Greece and advised the newly elected Greek PM to "stick to its commitments, which are essential for returning Greece to growth". Espernza Aguirre remarked that "Spain has nothing to do with Greece, nor Syriza with Podemos", as well Esteban González Pons insisted on the differences between both countries and introduced ETA in the analysis, saying that Tsipras must be bad for Spaniards if Arnaldo Otegui -leader of Sortu (EHBildu), currently in prison accused of "glorifying terrorism" and belonging to ETA- congratulated Greeks for the outcome. In other words: Syriza = ETA. Socialists, pretty confused on their positioning in Greece, just repeated the mantra: "Greece is not Spain, the PASOK is not the PSOE, Syriza is not Podemos". MEP Juan Francisco López Aguilar said days ago that he would "salute" a victory of Syriza. Meanwhile Pablo Iglesias was understandably exultant and warned: "To be able to pay its debts, Greece needs a different economic plan to the one they’ve had until now. Greece is 2-3% of EU GDP, Spain is 12%. We are not in conditions to be threatened by the Bundesbank". As well Íñigo Errejón tweeted:  "Saqueo politics have already proven unjust and inefficient. The only thing left was for them to seem inevitable. That can be broken today". In a crowded rally in Valencia, Podemos secretary general sent the new slogan: “Tick, tock, tick, tock, the countdown for Rajoy’s government begins on January 31″. Podemos convened a mass rally "for the change" in Madrid, on Jan 31.

At this point I should post something about some uncomfortable issues concerning Pablo Iglesias -a certain Peter Pan complex- and other prominent spokesperson in Podemos, Juan Carlos Monedero -regarding the use of the money he received in exchange for consultancy works for several Latin American governments-.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 29, 2015, 05:22:45 am
Caja Madrid/ Bankia scandal: High Court targets all 78 officials who used 'black cards'

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/28/inenglish/1422443024_651959.html

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The High Court has named all the former officials at the Caja Madrid and Bankia banks who used “black credit cards” between 1999 and 2012 as formal targets in the corporate abuse investigation – a total of 78 people.

Three officials who did not use these cards are being called in as witnesses.

Between 1999 and 2012, executives and board members at Caja Madrid, which later merged with other failed lenders to form Bankia, were given credit cards that drew money from a bank fund, but did not show up on any bank documents or job contracts.

Recipients racked up €15.2 million in bills for personal items, and the expenses were never declared to tax authorities even though bank bosses now say they counted as part of their salaries.

The scandal broke in October of last year, triggering a cascade of resignations and party suspensions going all the way up to Rodrigo Rato, the former chief of the International Monetary Fund and a veteran of Spanish politics who headed the lenders between 2010 and 2012.

Under pressure from Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, Rato volunteered to have his own Popular Party (PP) membership suspended while the investigation was underway.

Former officials include PP, PSOE and IU members, as well representatives from the UGT and CC.OO unions and employers' associations. "Who is who" in the 'black card' scandal:

http://www.eldiario.es/economia/GRAFICO-gastos-tarjetas-Caja-Madrid_0_309369334.html

The list includes 86 former board members. According to it, the ranking of expenditures with 'black cards' is topped by the former Director General of Caja Madrid Ildefonso Sánchez Barcoj, followed by José Antonio Moral Santín (IU), Ricardo Morado Iglesias and former Chairman Miguel Blesa (PP). 

Bankia was subject of a state bailout, the total amount of the rescue was around 20 billion Euros. The financial black hole of Bankia under the management of Miguel Blesa and Rodrigo Rato was estimated in 13.635 billion of Euros.

In Barcelona, the legal case involving former Catalan premier Jordi Pujol is underway. Pujol (aged 84) claims that his secret fortune came from his father, died in 1980. However, the inheritance is undocumented and the prosecutor sees "gaps and contradictions" in Pujol's story. The judge is trying to determine if the founder of Covergència is lying about the source of the wealth kept by Pujol in an account in Andorra. Several of Pujol's sons are under investigation for suspicious business dealings.

                                                                     
---

Podemos concluded a deal with Ganemos Madrid (a project of coalition involving IU, Equo and other organisations) a to run together in the municipal elections. According to a Ganemos press release, both agreed "a joint appeal to the Madrid citizenry to constitute a civic candidacy of popular unity". The details of the deal will be revealed today in a press conference. Apparently the name of the candidacy is still undecided; it will be neither Podemos nor Ganemos.

However, IU is broken and paralysed in Madrid. IU's regional executive recently adopted a resolution defending the coalition formula, which Podemos rejects. IU is facing a conflict in Madrid between the acting regional executive and the elected candidates Tania Sánchez and Mauricio Valiente. The latter are advocates of a convergence with Podemos and have urged the current regional leadership, already touched by the Caja Madrid scandal, to resign.   


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Simfan34 on January 29, 2015, 12:28:19 pm
La Razón's subheadline is 'nos gusta España'? LOL.

Oh great posts btw. Please continue.

"We like Spain"? ???


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 29, 2015, 05:13:32 pm
The joint candidacy between Podemos and Ganemos (a platform created a year ago to rally political organizations and social movements in the left) will constitute an "instrumental party" to run in the municipal elections in Madrid. The name of the party will be decided next month in a "citizen's assembly", according to Ganemos spokeswoman Celia Mayer. The candidates will be elected in a primary election that will take place in March. "In neither case" said "instrumental party" will form a coalition with IU, that is to say, IU must run in the primaries or they will be out of the candidacy.

The IU regional leadership (the 'old guard') intended a deal in which the places in the list were agreed between forces, as well as preserving the name of the organisation. However Mauricio Valiente, the IU elected candidate for the mayoralty, expressed before his will of running in the Ganemos primaries. Valiente attended the press release with Tania Sánchez, who was elected to top the IU list for the Madrid Regional Assembly. The Sánchez-Valiente tandem won the primaries held recently in IU and both are opposed to the 'old guard' which still rules the organisation in Madrid. Tania Sánchez raises suspicion among some people in the 'old guard', partly due to her relationship with Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias.

Tania Sánchez is backed by Alberto Garzón, the national deputy who will be in all likelihood the top IU candidate for the next general election. However, Garzón admitted days ago that she would be removed as candidate if Sánchez is formally accused of alleged wrongdoing during her tenure as councilor in Rivas, a town next to Madrid. PP filed a grievance against her for having allegedly favoured his brother's enterprise to get a contract with the Rivas municipality.

The press release to announce the joint candidacy was attended as well by Podemos municipal secretary Jesús Montero and Inés Sabanés (former IU councilor herself) from Equo.

So far, PSOE and UPyD have nominated candidates for the mayoralty of Madrid. Regional deputy and economist Antonio Miguel Carmona will top the PSOE list, whereas UPyD nominated its current municipal spokesman David Ortega. The PP candidate will depend on the decision of Mariano Rajoy.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on January 31, 2015, 04:01:13 am
The IU's national executive held an extraordinary meeting yesterday, in order to deal with the crisis of the organisation in Madrid. As said in the previous post, IU in Madrid is divided between the supporters of the regional executive and those of Tania Sánchez -candidate elect for the next regional election-. It was discused a procedure of expulsion against municipal and regional spokesmen, Ángel Pérez and Gegorio Gordo. The motivation of such procedure is that both performed "political responsibilities" in the past 20 years, when IU participated in the distribution of positions in Caja Madrid (later merged into Bankia). Ángel Pérez and Gregorio Gordo held the position of regional coordinator during that period. Despite Alberto Garzón required an immediate expulsion, national leader Cayo Lara submitted a more moderate resolution which consists in "disowning politically" Pérez and Gordo and opening a file against both. To make things more complex, it's questionable that the IU national executive is competent to take disciplinary measures against the regional leadership, because IU in Madrid has a separate legal personality.   

Meanwhile, the Podemos "March for Change" takes place today. Podemos expects to flood the centre of Madrid, in order to demonstrate its public support. The March will end at Plaza del Sol, an emblematic place for the indignados movement. Front de Gauche's Jean Luc Melenchon, anti-eviction activist and Guanyem spokeswoman Ada Colau and several member of the PSOE's leftist faction have confirmed their attendance. Podemos informed that local círculos and supporters have chartered 260 buses from several places across Spain. Around 100 people offered their cars to travel to Madrid and others living in the city offered their homes.

Syriza's victory in Greece has given a boost to the Spanish party but, on the other hand, the organisation feels that it's under "scrutiny" and politically motivated attacks.

Juan Carlos Monedero, one of the most notorious leaders of Podemos, has been criticised after an online paper revealed that he billed 425,000 Euros in his own enterprise. That money was received in exchange for consultancy works -he advised several Latin American countries (Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia and Nicaragua, among others) on the creation of a single currency. Monedero's enterprise was registered in Spain and paid taxes for that money, although some people say that he should have paid a share to the Complutense University, where he is professor. The money was used in financing La Tuerka, a political show produced by Pablo Iglesias and broadcasted by local TVs.

In the news, PP and PSOE seek to finalise an anti-terrorist agreement. PSOE accepts reluctantly PP's reintroduction of life sentences to save cross-party deal:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/01/30/inenglish/1422640052_611838.html

Quote
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez sought on Friday to hammer out the last details of a new cross-party anti-terrorist agreement.

The deal being drafted by the government and the opposition will extend beyond the national arena to connect with European and international cooperation agreements on the issue, said sources in the ruling Popular Party (PP) and opposition Socialists (PSOE).

Those in the Sánchez camp were hoping that each side would make some last-minute concessions in order to obtain a document satisfactory to both parties (...)


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Thomas from NJ on January 31, 2015, 10:25:00 pm
http://electomania.es/sigma-dos-utn-31-01-2015/ (http://electomania.es/sigma-dos-utn-31-01-2015/)

PP: 27,1%
Podemos: 26,3%
PSOE: 21,4%
C's: 5,0%
IU: 4,8%
UPyD: 4,0%
CiU: 2,5%
ERC: 2,4%
Others: 6,5%


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 01, 2015, 04:14:55 am
Plaza del Sol yesterday. The Podemos "March for Change" gathered between 100k (according to municipal police) and 300k (according to organisation) people. El País estimated 153k. In any case, this is the starting point of the Podemos campaign. "This is the year of change", said Pablo Iglesias.

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Andalusia: Regional elections. Sigma Dos/El Mundo

PSOE 34.7%, PP 30.2%, Podemos 15.6%, IU 8.2%, UPyD 3.5%, C's 3.4%, Others 4.4%

Sample: 1800. Fieldwork: Jan 26-29.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 02, 2015, 03:12:50 am
Pedro Sánchez called for "unity, strength and go out to win" in the next elections. PSOE held a conference of territorial leaders past weekend, marked by the absence of Andalusian premier Susana Díaz, affected by a strong influenza (given her state of pregnancy, doctors discouraged her to take medication). Pedro Sánchez vindicated PSOE as the only alternative to PP: socialists are the "serious left" and the the ones whom fear PP. The socialist leader avoided mentioning Podemos, but accused them of being fuelled by disenchantment: "Spain cannot stand those whom seek recovery for the more privileged 10%, nor those whom fish in the troubled waters of disenchantment". Later, Sánchez picked out the main lines of his project of "safe change" that will create opportunities for Spaniards: "No more mass redundancies in companies with profits. No more rescued banks denying credit for self-employed workers. No more vulture funds evicting poor families (the Madrid Council sold social housing to Goldman Sachs and other funds, in order to balance the cash; families are subject of real estate mobbing). No more exorbitant salaries in companies that pay misery salaries to their employees". Programme highlights will be the creation of funds of active employment policies and to facilitate the return of economic expatriates; and fighting evictions by creating a network of social rented housing or negotiating a "debt restructuring" between the threatened families and the banks.

Jean Luc Mélenchon was in Madrid to attend the Podemos "March for Change". Previously he met with Alberto Garzón from IU. "The left is dead if it doesn't convince the middle class"


Two polls depicting parallel realities.

Simple Lógica:

Podemos 30.8%, PP 24.5%, PSOE 18.6%, UPyD 6.4%, C's 5.8%, IU 4.6%.

http://www.simplelogica.com/iop/iop15001-intencion_voto_popularidad_lideres.asp

Celeste-Tel / El Diario

PP 31.1%, PSOE 23.8%, Podemos 20.9%, IU 4.7%, C's 4.5%, UPyD 2.7%

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/PP-levemente-aspiraciones-electorales-consolida_0_352065037.html


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: politicus on February 02, 2015, 03:24:50 am

Two polls depicting parallel realities.

Simple Lógica:

Podemos 30.8%, PP 24.5%, PSOE 18.6%, UPyD 6.4%, C's 5.8%, IU 4.6%.

http://www.simplelogica.com/iop/iop15001-intencion_voto_popularidad_lideres.asp

Celeste-Tel / El Diario

PP 31.1%, PSOE 23.8%, Podemos 20.9%, IU 4.7%, C's 4.5%, UPyD 2.7%

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/PP-levemente-aspiraciones-electorales-consolida_0_352065037.html

Methodological differences?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 02, 2015, 04:51:35 am
Methodological differences?

Sure. I have reasons to believe that polls are going to be increasingly unreliable. Either for the volatility of the electorate and the difficulty of making predictions in an unprecedented scenario, or maybe because fear is installed among certain people and pollsters might be tempted to adjust their methods. Actually, I don't know.

Edit / on the reliability of pollsters:

There is consensus in regarding the CIS polls as the best in collecting raw data, given the size of the samples and the professionalism in which they are conducted. However, the CIS is not necessarily the best in vote estimation. As for the latter, right now I tend to trust more in Invymark, MyWord or GESOP, based on their level of success in the past EP elections and my subjective perception. It's my understanding that NCReport, GAD3, Celeste-Tel, Metroscopia and other pollsters are quite unreliable. I'd say Sigma Dos is professional, but it has certain anti-PSOE bias (just the opposite to Metroscopia).


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: DL on February 02, 2015, 09:46:09 am
If the PP remained the largest party but Podemos and PSOE had a clear majority between them - what would happen? Would PSOE go into a "grand coalition" with PP or would PSOE and Podemos form a "Popular Front-style" leftwing coalition?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 02, 2015, 09:57:31 am
I would dismiss the idea of a "Popular Front" of any kind. The general election can place PSOE in the situation of being the kingmaker. In spite of themselves, they'll have to make a decision. Maybe they would take the easy way, allowing a PP minority government but not taking part in an electorally suicidal "Grosse Koalition".


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: DL on February 02, 2015, 10:28:10 am
Surely the lesson from Greece is that if the PSOE made any kind of a deal with the PP that would mainatin a rightwing government - the following election would see the PSOE reduced to less than 5% of the vote and becoming even smaller than the Communists...


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Vosem on February 02, 2015, 12:02:30 pm
Could PSOE simply refuse to ally with either party and keep triggering elections until someone can form a majority government or a working minority, like Ireland 1981-1982 or Greece 1989-1990?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 02, 2015, 01:43:35 pm
I don't see it. Imagine an scenario in which PP comes first, Podemos second and PSOE third. It seems to me that triggering a new election might have the consequence of PSOE suffering a loss of voters to Podemos, given the predictable polarisation of the electorate. I think it'd be a bad strategy on the part of the Spanish socialists.

If you have to trust Pedro Sánchez, the only workable solution for him is a PSOE minority government (I guess propped up by Podemos or PP, depending on issues). On the other hand, there's no tradition in Spain of coalition governments at national level, although it exists at regional and local levels. In all likelihood, we'll see a wide range of coalition deals or governability pacts in regions and municipalities. It's complicated to make predictions at this moment.

Under our current electoral system, a workable PP minority would need getting around 34% of the vote, providing that Podemos+PSOE+IU are below 44%. Someone made the calculation here:

http://politikon.es/2014/09/03/dhondt-vota-podemos/

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Right now, PP is polling at best around 30% (27% on average). Podemos is around 25% on average, PSOE at 21% and IU slightly below the 5% line. If you look at the graph above, with those percentages the intersection of X and Y axes falls in the red colour.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Spanish_general_election,_2015#Election_polling


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 02, 2015, 01:50:35 pm
A question worth asking is whether Podemos can sustain the support they're currently registering in the polls; those that rise quickly can fall just as fast.

(though, against that, it can be pointed out that the government is unpopular and that the PSOE doesn't seem capable of articulating whatever the hell it is they stand for these days).


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: ag on February 02, 2015, 08:58:51 pm
If there is a difficulty forming a government, could there be a constitutional role for the King?

One possible outcome of the election results on the current polling is that nobody can form a government, but PP and PSOE could, in principle, agree on a technocratic government. Would Felipe be capable of mediating this sort of an outcome?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 03, 2015, 03:23:45 am
The constitution says that the king has "arbitral" and "moderating" functions, attached to the character of "invariable neutrality" consubstantial with his figure. The limits of his moderating functions are open to interpretation, as you can read in the last paragraphs quoted below. I guess that Felipe VI could mediate in the formation of a 'technocratic' government at the request of PP and PSOE.

http://www.congreso.es/consti/constitucion/indice/sinopsis/sinopsis.jsp?art=62&tipo=2

Quote
El Rey es el Jefe del Estado de una Monarquía parlamentaria, y en consecuencia no es ya el eje del sistema político ni el centro de las decisiones, que pasan al Parlamento y al Gobierno, sino una instancia que nuclea la unidad del Estado, función ésta institucionalizadora (sic) que no pueden realizar ni el Gabinete ni las Cortes Generales conjunta ni separadamente.

    Este carácter permanente del Rey frente a la contingencia del Parlamento -sometido a los procesos electorales- y del Gobierno que resulta de las mayorías obtenidas en el Congreso de los Diputados, otorgan al Monarca una concepción de invariable neutralidad sobre la que descansa la función arbitral y moderadora que se despliega al margen de los restantes poderes del Estado.

     La cuestión está en saber si esa función arbitral y moderadora es un auténtico poder, independientemente de los demás poderes o si por el contrario es una instancia persuasiva y de influencia sin poderes concretos. La primera postura arrancaría de la existencia de un poder armónico o regulador exclusivo del Monarca tal como la formulara Benjamín Constant. Así, Herrero R. de Miñón, aunque con matizaciones, entiende que las competencias de arbitraje y moderación son cláusulas generales de apoderamiento de ámbito indeterminado, aunque determinable en la realidad. En sentido contrario, entre otros, Pérez Royo y Torres del Moral, que impugnan un ámbito independiente de poder para la actividad moderadora y arbitral del Rey; el segundo de los autores citados no duda en incluir esas funciones dentro de la concepción de "actos debidos" que no comportan por ello esfera específica de poder.

     Ciertamente entre la primera postura de indudable carácter expansivo y las que reducen a un simple "acto debido" la función moderadora y arbitral del Rey, se abre una tercera vía consistente, como han puesto de manifiesto Fernández Fontecha y Pérez de Armiñán, en reconocer al Monarca determinadas "potestades bloqueantes" (de las que las funciones moderadora y arbitral serían las arquetípicas), que como se ha dicho más atrás no se traducirían en derecho de "hacer" sino en derecho -¿o quizá el deber?- a impedir actuaciones contrarias al orden constitucional, así como a resolver de "forma pasiva" las tensiones que se planteen en el funcionamiento regular de las instituciones. Gracias a esta función de "influencia" el Rey trasciende el ámbito de sus estrictas atribuciones constitucionales, haciendo realidad actual la frase de Bagehot de que al Rey corresponde "animar, prevenir, ser consultado".

On a side note, there's another Felipe who advocates for a PP-PSOE coalition if it's needed "for the good of the country". Former PM Felipe González, to be precise.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2014/05/12/actualidad/1399875819_660624.html


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 03, 2015, 04:00:16 am
A question worth asking is whether Podemos can sustain the support they're currently registering in the polls; those that rise quickly can fall just as fast.

(though, against that, it can be pointed out that the government is unpopular and that the PSOE doesn't seem capable of articulating whatever the hell it is they stand for these days).

Indeed. The Podemos people is aware that sustaining the level of support they currently enjoy is not going to be easy. This is going to be a long and tough year for them, too. Their first concern is that polls in Andalusia are not as favourable for them as they are in other regions. They need a good result there to have chances in a general election. Also, the 'two souls' inside Podemos are still struggling to reach a deal in Andalusia. On the other hand, I think the Podemos support is not going to fall abruptly. The reason is that it's sustained in a sociological undercurrent, a general dissatisfaction with the inefficient and corrupt political and economical elites. Podemos has reached its current status because they have been able to connect with that mood, as well as they represent a factor of hope and illusion for many people. As long as the mainstream parties (PP and PSOE) continue to be incapable of reforming themselves, as well as to reform a system running out of steam, I think Podemos is here to stay.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 03, 2015, 08:46:03 pm
Some notes on the Andalusian elections.

- According to Infolibre, the two main factions inside Podemos - the one led by MEP Teresa Rodríguez and the another led by Sergio Pascual, close to the Pablo Iglesias' team- have reached some kind of draft agreement to run a single list of candidates. Apparently Teresa Rodríguez is going to be the top candidate, although union leader Diego Cañamero (SAT) will be excluded at the request of the Sergio Pascual faction.

Cañamero was previously in IU as member of the CUT party, led by the Marinaleda mayor Juan Manuel Sánchez Gordillo. He left in December with other CUT members, because of a strong disagreement with the PSOE-IU coalition government. Later they joined Podemos and it was rumoured that all the CUT would follow, including Sánchez Gordillo. The controversial mayor of Marinaleda stated months ago feeling much more closer to Podemos than IU. Diego Cañamero and his partners are close to Teresa Rodríguez and he was mentioned as a possible top candidate.

Days ago Luis Alegre, who is member of the Podemos' national executive, said in an interview that Andalusia was not a region in which they have chances of winning. Alegre rectified later that statement, which didn't make Teresa Rodríguez happy for obvious reasons. Previously Alegre said that Podemos would not facilitate a PP government, as well as he conditioned possible dealings with PSOE to an "implacable commitment" against corruption.

- PP regional leader Juan Manuel Moreno offered Susana Díaz a "Grand Coalition" or some kind of governability pact, in order to prevent that Podemos governs ("it'd be a chaos", he said). The offer looks like a poisoned sweet for the socialists.

- Susana Díaz, on her part, rejected deals with PP and Podemos. PP is discarded because she doesn't want dealings with the party which has caused "a lot harm to the people". Podemos because she won't have dealings with "whom insult us".

- Finally, the former deputy premier Diego Valderas (IU) says that "the new electoral map will take us to be in a territory of permanent dialog with Susana Díaz and PSOE", showing that the "political anger" with Susana Díaz could go down in history. I ignore what's the opinion of the new regional coordinator Antonio Maíllo.


The CIS January survey will be released soon. Apparently not good news for PSOE at national level. The last survey was in October and the socialists were still in second place.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 04, 2015, 08:13:43 am
CIS, January 2015:

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Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 05, 2015, 08:41:28 am
The internal chasm inside IU Madrid (IUCM) has deepened in the last days. Tania Sánchez, candidate elect for the next regional election, has left the IUCM membership and her seat in the Regional Assembly (thus, she won't be the IU candidate). Sánchez intends to create a new party aimed to converge in a "popular unity candidacy". A couple of days ago, the PCE branch in Madrid broke ties with the IUCM, pledging allegiance to the IU's federal executive. Sánchez, however, won't seek IU's approval . Instead, she aims to rally around her new party those who believe that there's a chance of unseating the PP regional government. But Podemos still intends to run its own list in the regional elections. Unless they change their strategy, "popular unity" candidacies including Podemos are only possible at local level (using various legal formulas, such as independent lists or the "instrumental party" that will run in the city of Madrid). Meanwhile, the IUCM 'old guard' is determined to stay, regardless several IU leaders have asked them to leave. The attitude of Cayo Lara and the federal executive has been hesitant and irresolute in tackling the crisis in Madrid, which is one of the most important regional federations in IU.

Edit: Pablo Iglesias offered Tania Sánchez and those who believe that "change is possible" to join the Podemos candidacy, although he says that respects the decisions of members of other organisations. "I would be delighted that all the good people would assume that Podemos is their instrument, but we are going to respect them if they think their instruments are others", said iglesias.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 07, 2015, 06:22:01 am
- Tania Sánchez has discarded joining Podemos. She and her followers (IUCM dissidents) will seek to create a space for "change and popular unity". The potential IU candidate Alberto Garzón was understanding with her departure, blaming the current IUCM leadership which should have taken political responsibilities for the involvement in corruption scandals of former IU representatives in Caja Madrid. Other IU leaders have criticised her decision. Sánchez won't seek that her new party replace IUCM as the IU's referent in Madrid, although she hopes meeting her former partners along the way, as well to find a formula to cooperate with them and Podemos in a "popular unity candidacy".

- Juan Carlos Monedero (who is the Podemos nº3 behind Pablo Iglesias and Íñigo Errejón) submitted on Jan 29 a complementary tax return, paying around 130,000 additional Euros to the Treasury. That amount was paid order to regularise the taxes he paid in 2013 for the income he received from several Latin American in exchange for consultancy works. Monedero paid 70,000 Euros in that year through an unipersonal limited company; as a legal person he should have paid 200,000. According to Podemos, Monedero chose the most favourable payment option for the Treasury, in order to tackle a negative campaign against him orchestrated by the government (they perceived a veiled menace from Finance minister Cristóbal Montoro) and right-wing press. Deputy PM Soraya Sáez de Santamaría stated that "if every one did like Monedero, there would be more money to pay social services. PSOE spokesman Antonio Hernando compared Monedero with Luis Bárcenas, the former PP treasurer.

While the method of payment he used in 2013 is legal, he should have created his limited society before starting to work or paid taxes as a self-employed worker. It's possible that error is the result of a bad tax advice, although paying correctly is his personal responsibility. On the other hand, the comparison with Bárcenas looks exaggerated and the attitude of the Finance minister and the government contrasts sharply with the non-existent will to cooperate in the investigation of several scandals (for instance, those affecting former Caja Madrid/Bankia officials or princess Cristina). Monedero, on his part, didn't provide explanations and claimed being subject of a campaign against him, acting like those establishment politicians he criticise. Obviously, most of the media is hostile to Podemos and its leaders are being over scrutinised. Unverified information on alleged wrongdoings is not uncommon as of late. For instance, days ago El País claimed that Monedero falsified his curriculum vitae without solid evidence and later the paper had to rectify. El Mundo did the same with some information concerning Íñigo Errejón.

- PP territorial leaders are nervous because of Rajoy's indecision, especially regional premiers Alberto Fabra (Valencia) and Ignacio González (Madrid). Apparently, Mariano Rajoy has taken a decision on whom will be the candidates in the main places at stake in the regional and local elections. As usual in the Spanish PM, he would be delaying the announcements until the last moment, just in case it happens something (a scandal, a rival's move...). Alberto Fabra and Ignacio González hope to be nominated and seek reelection. The mayoral candidate in Madrid could be Esperanza Aguirre, although government delegate Cristina Cifuentes is not fully discarded. Internal polling is not very favourable in the capital of Spain and Rajoy would leave Aguirre (who polls slightly better than other potential candidates) to run on her fate. Given that elections in Andalusia were put forward, regional leader Juan Manuel Moreno has been confirmed together with José Antonio Monago in Extremadura. The only mayoral candidates conformed yesterday by the electoral committee were those whom will run in the provincial capitals of Extremadura and Galicia. The impatient potential candidates in other regions will have to wait until the next meeting.

- In Andalusia, the list topped by MEP Teresa Rodríguez that will run in the Podemos internal primary elections (named something like "Sowing Future") might include people from the ecologist party Equo. The Vox Party and Ciudadanos have already nominated candidates. Former judge Francisco Serrano (notorious for a controversial campaign on gender violence, calling women for not filing false complaints) will run for the conservative PP splinter. The top C's candidate will be Juan Marín, Deputy Mayor of Sanlúcar (Cádiz) and linked to the party since 2011. Marín ran in the Ciudadanos por Sanlúcar list in the past municipal elections, group which governs in coalition with the local PSOE.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 08, 2015, 02:19:43 am
New polls.

Invymark / La Sexta

PP 26.1%, Podemos 26%, PSOE 20.1%, UPyD 5%, IU 4.3%, C's 3.8%.

Metroscopia / El País

Podemos 27.7%, PP 20.9%, PSOE 18.3%, C's 12.2%, IU 6.5%, UPyD 4.5%.

The Metroscopia poll can provoke an orgasmic rection in Albert Rivera's hosts. My opinion is that pollster should stop taking dope. On the other hand, the CIS might be underestimating C's. Raw polling data shows UPyD and Ciudadanos tied in the CIS Jan survey.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 08, 2015, 11:32:14 am
Celeste-Tel poll for the Andalusian elections released by various regional papers.

PSOE 36%, PP 27.8%, Podemos 16.1%, IU 7.3%, C's 4.6%, PA 3.2%, UPyD 2.8%

Seats (109): PSOE 47, PP 36, Podemos 17, IU 7, C's 2

Sample size: 3300 (phone calls). Fieldwork: Jan 17-22.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 11, 2015, 08:10:04 am
Pedro Sánchez has dismissed Tomás Gómez, leader and candidate of the Socialist Party in Madrid:

http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/02/11/madrid/1423647485_897542.html

The only thing I'm going to say is that I'm behind that.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Nanwe on February 11, 2015, 03:13:42 pm
Pedro Sánchez has dismissed Tomás Gómez, leader and candidate of the Socialist Party in Madrid:

http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/02/11/madrid/1423647485_897542.html

The only thing I'm going to say is that I'm behind that.

Good riddance, indeed.

That been said, since PSOE militants have stormed into Ferraz accusing Sánchez of being a PP submarine and a dictator and with Gomez threatening to take the affair to court.... Well this is not turning exactly into a victory for him. In fact, it could be his political death, if he doesn't do something right before the next elections, although it also depends on Díaz's performance in the Andalucian elections (lacklustre or very lacklustre)


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 12, 2015, 02:20:09 am
The dismissal of Tomás Gómez appears to be handled clumsily, especially hearing the yesterday's imprecise statements made by the secretary for organisation César Luena (who seems mediocrity personified, on the other hand). Possible reasons are the issue of extra costs in the construction of a tram in Parla (a working-class town located south of Madrid) when Gómez was mayor, the repercussions of a scandal involving former PP and PSOE mayors (including Francisco Granados, who also was a top regional official and one of the Esperanza Aguirre's lieutenants) or internal conflicts in the PSOE's Madrid branch. Tomás Gómez is not formally accused for the tram affair; even though he has been a controversial, despotic and arguably incompetent leader, the procedure to get rid of him looks somewhat rushed and irregular (some people defined it as a little coup d'état).

PSOE's executive has appointed a management committee led by former regional leader Rafael Simancas, that includes several rivals of Gómez such as Jaime Lissavetzky (candidate for Mayor of Madrid in 2011). Some media point former minister of Education Ángel Gabilondo as possible candidate for regional premier, seen as a "winning candidate" by the PSOE's leadership. Gabilondo, who is not in PSOE, was the Rector of the Autonomous University of Madrid (UAM) and is brother of a prestigious journalist. El País is already campaigning for him. Metroscopia conducted an "urgency" (if not "scence-fiction") poll immediately after the dismissal placing PSOE first in voting intention, with Podemos falling to third place. While Ángel Gabilondo is far better person than Tomás Gómez and maybe better candidate, he's not well known by voters.   

(Welcome back, Namwe. Hope that you and Julio continue posting something)



Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Nanwe on February 12, 2015, 04:31:56 am
(Thanks Velasco, I will try, although I'm busy at the moment with my thesis about the French 4th Republic)

Have you seen El País' latest poll? It only took them one day for the PSOE to dismiss Gomez and El Pais has a "poll" showing how much that has benefited the party (with a crazy polling result for C's). Either the most BS poll ever or the most efficient polling system in history. I'm inclined towards the former.

And I used to take Metroscopia as a serious pollster... Now it's the worst, not even La Razón's polls are so bad.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 12, 2015, 05:07:06 am
Good luck with your thesis. Julio is busy and I have to prepare an exam too. I think this weekend I'll try to make a summary of parties and candidates running in Andalusia. That election should deserve a thread in its own, but there's no time. I'm retouching a map I made of the 2012 election, anyway.


Have you seen El País' latest poll? It only took them one day for the PSOE to dismiss Gomez and El Pais has a "poll" showing how much that has benefited the party (with a crazy polling result for C's). Either the most BS poll ever or the most efficient polling system in history. I'm inclined towards the former.

And I used to take Metroscopia as a serious pollster... Now it's the worst, not even La Razón's polls are so bad.

I already commented that. Metroscopia is fairly unreliable, indeed. I think C's is growing, but 12% nationwide is pure fantasy. I doubt they are going to win seats next month in Andalusia while the UPyD might be on the verge; soon we'll see.

El País is already campaigning for him. Metroscopia conducted an "urgency" (if not "science-fiction") poll immediately after the dismissal placing PSOE first in voting intention, with Podemos falling to third place. While Ángel Gabilondo is far better person than Tomás Gómez and maybe better candidate, he's not well known by voters.   


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 12, 2015, 08:51:56 am
Yes, Metroscopia is officially a joke.

The PSOE is in the way to "PASOKization", not because of the dismissal of Tomás Gómez (he was a horrible candidate and person whom I have been fighting against since last year), but because this decision comes late and, like Dani's said, has been handled clumsily. Now, expect Gómez to keep salendering Pedro Sánchez every day in the media.

César Luena has said that Gómez was dismissed yestarday for "internal instability" reasons. I've talked to many people in the PSM and they tell me that the main reason was because of problems in some towns like Aranjuez, Leganés and, specially, Parla, but also because some people had been reporting that the PSM has been buying votes since Gómez lost in 2011, and that includes me; but Gómez hasn't been dismissed because of my report, no; sources tell me that militants of the PSOE in Valdemoro (a town in Southern Madrid) are to praise for the dismissal of Gómez (and I was the person who encouraged those militants to report :P): their appeal to the PSOE caused a investigation file to be opened against Gómez.

So, Parla, Valdemoro, Aranjuez, Tram and Leganés seem to be the reasons of the decision taken by Pedro Sánchez.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Nanwe on February 12, 2015, 09:04:58 am
Yes, Metroscopia is officially a joke.

The PSOE is in the way to "PASOKization", not because of the dismissal of Tomás Gómez (he was a horrible candidate and person whom I have been fighting against since last year), but because this decision comes late and, like Dani's said, has been handled clumsily. Now, expect Gómez to keep salendering Pedro Sánchez every day in the media.

César Luena has said that Gómez was dismissed yestarday for "internal instability" reasons. I've talked to many people in the PSM and they tell me that the main reason was because of problems in some towns like Aranjuez, Leganés and, specially, Parla, but also because some people had been reporting that the PSM has been buying votes since Gómez lost in 2011, and that includes me; but Gómez hasn't been dismissed because of my report, no; sources tell me that militants of the PSOE in Valdemoro (a town in Southern Madrid) are to praise for the dismissal of Gómez (and I was the person who encouraged those militants to report :P): their appeal to the PSOE caused a investigation file to be opened against Gómez.

So, Parla, Valdemoro, Aranjuez, Tram and Leganés seem to be the reasons of the decision taken by Pedro Sánchez.

Back when I lived in Alcalá (and where my parents live), Gomez is particularly disliked, his lovely tendency towards destruction of any independent thought within the PSM resulted in the destruction of a joint UPyD-PSOE effort to dislodge Bello from the city's mayoralty and the PP alongside it. Sadly Gomez killed it. Not only that, but somehow -but sadly i don't know the specifics, Bello was capable of furthering his majority by adding to the PP the whackos of España200 and IU.

In any case, looking at the polls in and outside the Corredor del Henares, the PSM is going down, Podemos is capturing its left-wing vote, UPyD and C's can and will from its right and in the meanwhile, voting (I'd say) is less solidified in the CAM than in other regions. Of course if Rajoy picks Aguirre as candidate for mayor of Madrid, things might still change a lot.

As for Andalucia. Andalucia, as Politikon neatly puts it, is where the worst vices of the PSOE show up, understandably, and the fact that the PSOE has become so rooted there because it's been wiped out elsewhere is no good for the party. Soon enough, PSOE might have to rename itself Partido Regionalista Socialista (Extremeño-)Andaluz


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 13, 2015, 12:46:34 pm
University of Granada poll (Andalusia, regional elections).

PSOE 35.2%, PP 29.1%, Podemos 14.9%, IU 8.4%, C's 4.6%, UPyD 3.1%, PA 2.4%

Sample size: 1200. Fieldwork: Jan 8-31.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 14, 2015, 02:27:01 pm
Andalusia 2015:

The Andalusian election was called on January 27 and will be held on Sunday March 22. Regional premier Susana Díaz (PSOE) decided to move forward the election one year before the end of term in 2016, stating the "instability" of the PSOE-IU coalition government and the lack of trust towards her coalition partners as the main reasons to dissolve the Andalusian Parliament.

The 2012 election:

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Leading party by municipality. The IU colour has been changed from from purple in the first version of the map to lime green, making it coincide with the regional organisation's logo. From now on, purple will be assigned to Podemos.

Results:

PP 40.66% (+2.21%) winning 50 seats (+3)
PSOE-A 39.52% (-8.89%) winning 47 seats (-9)
IULV-CA 11.34% (+4.28%) winning 12 seats (+6)
UPyD 3.35% (+2.73%) winning 0 seats (nc)
PA 2.5% (-0.26%) winning 0 seats (nc)
Equo 0.53% (-0.05%) winning 0 seats (nc)

The 2012 election placed the Popular Party (PP) first, but it fell short of a majority by 5 seats. That result left ambivalent interpretations for the conservative force. It was an historic outcome because, by the first time in 30 years, the Andalusian branch of PP was able to become in the largest party ahead of the socialists. However, the outcome was a failure because of the high previous expectations. PP had already beaten PSOE by a 9% margin in the 2011 general election; nearly all polls were predicting a PP majority and no less than a 6-7% lead.  Finally, the outcome made nearly impossible for veteran regional leader Javier Arenas to become in the next regional premier. The frustrated expectations for change in Andalusia were a huge disappointment for a then victorious PP, as well as a warning bell for the Rajoy administration in Madrid. The election took place in the first months of the incumbent PP government and the ruling party was beginning to be unpopular due to the implementation of tough economic measures. While the Rajoy administration apparently took the austerity path by conviction, such measures were in open contradiction with the 2011 electoral platform, which promised an economic recovery without prescribing the bitterest medicines (such as cuts in social services and tax increases). A new labour reform was passed. Remarkably, the sponsor was a member of the Andalusian PP: Fátima Báñez, minister for employment. The reform gave employers great facilities to fire workers, as well as a de facto suppression of collective agreements which supposed the weakening of trade union power.

Despite having been defeated by a narrow 1% margin, PSOE performed better than expected. José Antonio Griñán, the then incumbent regional premier, achieved a "moral victory". Griñán proved to be right when he decided not following a previous pattern of making coincide the regional elections with the Spanish general election; the latter had been called in advance by Zapatero and set in November 2011. The regional premier was able to avoid a sound defeat of disastrous consequences for his party, already in a state of depression as a consequence of the 2011 electoral catastrophes. Besides, he was able to remain in office with the support of the United Left (IU), which whom the Andalusian socialists reached an agreement to form a coalition government. However, Griñán was touched by the repercussions of the ERE scandal*, which later provoked his resignation in the summer of 2013. Immediately after (September 2013), Griñán was appointed senator by the Andalusian Parliament in representation of the region.

*In order to save time, I'll quote El Caudillo's blog (you can read the regional profile, too):

https://welections.wordpress.com/2012/03/28/andalusia-and-asturias-spain-2012/

Quote
In Andalusia, the regional PSOE government finds itself embroiled in EREgate. EREgate involves the subsidization of early retirement in government-funded companies by the PSOE. In this case, around 3% of early retirement cases were found to be fraudulent and involved roughly €9 million. The government paid excessive early retirements or paid early retirements to employees who never actually worked for a particular company (ed: those people usually tended to be PSOE supporters or part of the PSOE clientele). The PP and IU in the Andalusian parliament have seen their calls for a commission of inquiry refused by the PSOE majority, which claims that claims are being investigated by the Employment Ministry alongside the courts. The PP claims that the PSOE is covering up a wider case which involves the current president of the community, José Antonio Griñán. […]

The main beneficiary of PSOE's decline was the IU, increasing more than 4% (about 1/2 of PSOE's losses). In comparison with the result of the 2011 general election in Andalusia, PP suffered significant losses (mainly to abstention), whereas the PSOE-IU left block remained stable (in terms of raw vote) with some internal redistribution between both parties. The Andalusian IU reached its electoral peak in the mid 90's, remarkably when former mayor of Córdoba Julio Anguita was the IU national leader (19.3% in 1994, 14.1% in 1996). Anguita himself ran in the 1986 elections getting 17.9% of the vote. The IU declined sharply since then, falling to 7-8% in subsequent elections held in the 00's. The IU's increase in 2012 was arguably due a favourable context, rather than the ability of its regional leadership (besides, the candidate Diego Valderas was miles away from the charismatic Julio Anguita in terms of popular appeal).

The result was disappointing for the UPyD, which failed to win seats and received less votes than in the 2011 general election without benefiting from PP and PSOE losses. If UPyD was replicating the 2011 result, it could have won 2 seats in the regional parliament. The regionalist Andalusian Party (PA), which had parliamentary representation in past elections and even joined coalition governments with PSOE, was unable to recover support and got a poor result. The ecologist Equo only got a tiny 0.5%, falling from 1% in November 2011.


Electoral system:

The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia are elected in 8 multi-member districts, which correspond to the 8 Andalusian provinces. Each of the region's provinces are allocated 8 members, while the remaining 45 seats are allocated on the basis of population. Seats for each party are allocated using D'Hondt closed-list proportional representation. Only lists above a 3% of votes cast in each district are entitled to enter in the distribution. In practice, a list needs more than 5% of valid votes to win seats in the most populous provinces, Seville and Malaga.

Distribution of seats by province:

Seville 18, Málaga 17, Cádiz 15, Granada 13, Almería 12, Córdoba 12, Huelva 11, Jaén 11.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 16, 2015, 06:05:11 am
Parties and candidates:

Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE-A)

Incumbent premier Susana Díaz seeks reelection. She took office in September 2013, after the renunciation of José Antonio Griñán in July; subsequently, she replaced him as secretary general of the Andalusian socialists in November 2013. As the head of the main socialist federation (1/4 of PSOE membership is Andalusian), she has became in one of the most influential figures of the Spanish socialists. Arguably she played an important role in the Pedro Sánchez's rise to the PSOE's leadership. Despite she appeared neutral in the socialist primary held in July 2014, she was said to be behind Pedro Sánchez's landslide in Andalusia (61% of the vote). Immediately after the Sánchez's victory, it seemed to exist a good empathy between him and Díaz. However, subsequent turmoil in PSOE has been accompanied by rumours on Susana Díaz's ambition to run at the head of PSOE in the next general election, which she refuses stating that her priorities are Andalusia and her next maternity (she's expected to give birth by July).

Despite her young age, Susana Díaz (Seville, 1974) has a long political career in the Andalusian branch of PSOE. At the age of 18 she joined the Socialist Youth, where she held the post of secretary for organisation. She was elected councillor in the Seville City Hall in 1999. Since then, she has served in various political offices (national deputy, member of the regional parliament, senator), as well as in several party positions. In May 2012 Griñán appointed her regional minister for Presidency and Equality.

Susana Díaz will top the list in the province of Seville. The rest of the top candidates are experienced politicians, although all who might be affected by the ongoing investigation of the ERE scandal have been excluded. The socialist platform incorporates three unfinished laws outlined by the coalition government, all of them IU demands which PSOE takes up: citizen's participation, "democratic memory" (Franco's victims) and a public credit institute. 

Popular Party (PP)

The candidate is Juan Manuel Moreno (1970), regional leader since May 2014 replacing Mayor of Seville Juan Ignacio Zoido. Juan Manuel Moreno led the PP's Youth (the "New Generations") and was councillor in the Malaga Town Hall, member of the Andalusian Parliament and of the Congress of Deputies. Between the PP's victory in November 2011 until his appointment at the head of the Andalusian Populares, he was secretary of Social Services and Equality in the Rajoy administration. His main handicaps are a low level of knowledge among Andalusian and a controversy around his curriculum vitae (his academic qualifications lack of official recognition). Juan Manuel Moreno seeks the centre, appealing to "moderate policies" in opposition to the "radicality risk" represented by Podemos and IU. The candidate will top the list in Málaga, while the inclusion of former regional leader in the 4th place of the Almería's list caused some surprise.

United Left The Greens-Assembly for Andalusia (IULV-CA)

Antonio Maíllo (1966), who is the IU's regional coordinator since June 2013 in replacement of the then Deputy Premier Diego Valderas, is the candidate to preside La Junta. He has a degree in Classical Philology and is a secondary school teacher. Left-wing activist since the age of 18, he was councillor in Sanlúcar (Cádiz) and Aracena (Huelva) and joined PCE in 1996. Maíllo was nominated candidate in a primary election held in July 2014. He had a critical stance of the coalition government and has good empathy with deputy Alberto Garzón, who will be the IU's candidate in the general election. Antonio Maíllo will top the list in Seville, in replacement of Marinaleda mayor Juan Manuel Sánchez Gordillo. The Sánchez Gordillo's party (CUT, Workers' Unity Candidacy), decided to leave the IU some days ago and not taking part in the primary process to select candidates. Apparently, the IU leadership felt somewhat relieved by that decision; the Maíllo's candidacy will seek to attract urban vote and the rural 'revolutionary' profile of the CUT didn't help.

Podemos

MEP Teresa Rodríguez (1981) was proclaimed candidate after a primary election in which she topped a "unity list" agreed with the Pablo Iglesias' team. Teresa Rodríguez is a young activist born in Rota (Cádiz), where is located a Naval Station which is funded by the USA and has US military personnel. She joined a movement against the presence of US military in Rota at a very young age, joined the IU at the age of 18 and later the Anticapitalist Left. Teresa Rodríguez has a degree in Arab Philology and is secondary school teacher.

The candidate will top the list in Cádiz, while people close to the Podemos' national leadership will top the list in other provinces: art historian Lucía Ayala in Almería; sociologist David Moscoso in Córdoba; professor of Civil Law Luis Serrano in Granada; and Begoña Gutiérrez in Seville. The Podemos list integrates members of Equo, with the candidate elect of the ecologist organisation running in the 3rd place for Córdoba. Also, several members of the Sánchez Gordillo's CUT will run, although controversial rural union leader Diego Cañamero was excluded by petition of the Podemos' leadership in Madrid. Both Equo and CUT preserve their character of independent organisations. On the other hand, Podemos elected regional executives past weekend except in Andalusia, due to the proximity of the elections.

Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)

Lawyer Martín de la Herrán (1976) will repeat as candidate and will top the list in Málaga.

Citizens (C's)

The candidate is Juan Marín (1962), Deputy Mayor of Sanlúcar (Cádiz). Among his goals are strengthen the party's regional structure and offering Andalusians a new alternative "viable, sensible and regenerative".

Andalusian Party (PA)

Antonio Jesús Ruiz (1973), secretary general of the PA in replacement of Pilar González (unsuccessful candidate for Mayor of Seville), will run as candidate trying to improve the party's fortune in this elections. Ruiz has been Deputy Mayor in Puerto de Santa María (Cádiz). The Andalusian Party defines its ideology as "nationalist, federalist and progressive".

Vox

Former judge Francisco Serrano is the candidate of the Vox Party, a PP's hardcore conservative splinter which seemingly is accentuating an ultra Catholic profile. Serrano is quite controversial because of his statements on alleged false complaints about gender-based violence ("woman be honest...") and the so-called "gender ideology" which, in his words, brings to the destruction of family.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 21, 2015, 09:42:21 am
Professor and former minister for Education Ángel Gabilondo has been appointed by the PSOE executive committee candidate for the regional elections in Madrid. PSOE members had the chance to express their opinion on the suitability of the potential candidates and Gabilondo received an overwhelming support. Aside Gabilondo, who is an independent, the other postulant was Madrid councillor Pedro Zerolo, a gay activist. In representation of Tomás Gómez's supporters, MRA Amparo Valcarce withdrew her candidacy and backed Zerolo.

Former IU MRA and candidate elect Tania Sánchez joined Equo and other movements to create a candidacy called "Assembly for Madrid". It's unclear if they'll reach some kind of agreement with Podemos. Meanwhile IUCM spokepersons Ángel Pérez and Gregorio Gordo have been disowned by the IU federal executive, although that means little in practical terms. Both IU and the new Assembly for Madrid have little chances of getting into the Madrid Regional Assembly running in their own. Additionally, Ciudadanos is on the rise in Madrid and the rest of Spain if we have to trust in polls (which is not easy).

Ciudadanos hired a prestigious economist called Luis Garicano; he and C's leader Albert Rivera presented the party's economic platform in Madrid a couple of days ago. Apparently, Ciudadanos is about to become in a centrist Podemos in order to carry former PP voters from abstention. It seems clear that Rivera has the support of some influential media, as well as certain Catalan entrepreneurs.

Edit: I misnamed Mr. Garicano :P


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Niemeyerite on February 21, 2015, 10:39:56 am
I've been told that Tania Sánchez will be the candidate of a Podemos-Equo-"Convocatoria por Madrid" coalition.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: FredLindq on February 22, 2015, 09:10:57 am
What kind off cooperations might we see after the elections?!  PSOE+IU+Podemos and PP+C's?!


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 27, 2015, 02:09:25 am
February polls. Trust them at your own peril.

General election:

My Word / Cadena SER

Podemos 24.6%, PP 22.5%, PSOE 19.5%, C's 13.4%, UPyD 3.3%, IU 3%

Fieldwork: Feb 9-11. Sample size: 1000 (online)

Sigma Dos / Tele Cinco

PP 29.6%, Podemos 25.8%, PSOE 20.1%, C's 7.3%, IU 4.1%, CiU 2.6%, ERC 2.4%, UPyD 1.8%, PNV 1.2%

Fieldwork: Feb 9-12. Sample size: 1800 (phone calls)

Sigma Dos / Valencia region (general election):

PP 31.2%, Podemos 26.7%, PSOE 17.5%, C's 5.8%, IU 5.1%, Compromís 5%, UPyD 2.9%

Regional elections:

Invymark / La Sexta

Madrid regional election (129 seats, 5% threshold):

PP 38.8% (59 seats), Podemos 23.6% (35), PSOE 17.3% (26), C's 6% (9), UPyD 4.6% (-), IU 4.5% (-), Others 5.2%

Fieldwork: Feb 12-13. Sample size: 1600

Metroscopia / El País

Madrid (129):

PP 28% (38), Podemos 24.6% (34), PSOE 17% (23), C's 15.8% (21), IU 5.5% (7), UPyD 5% (6), Others 4.1%

Fieldwork: Feb 19-20. Sample size: 1200 (phone)

Vaubán / Extremadura7Días

Extremadura (65 seats):

PSOE 33.4% (24), PP 32.6% (24), Podemos 12.7% (9), UPyD 7.6% (5), IU 5.1% (3), C's 3.2% (-), Regionalists 2.1% (-), Others 3.3%

Fieldwork: Feb 9-20. Sample size: 1067 (phone)

Local elections:

Invymark / La Sexta

Madrid (57 councillors, 5% threshold)

PP 40.1% (26), PSOE 21.5% (14), Podemos/Ganemos 14.9% (10), C's 6.5% (4), IU 5% (3), UPyD 4.8% (-)

Fieldwork: Feb 12-13. Sample size: 800

Feedback / La Vanguardia

Barcelona (41 councillors, 5% threshold)

CiU 25.3% (11/12), Guanyem 21.4% (10), PP 13.7% (6) PSC 10.7% (5), ERC 10.3% (4/5), C's 8.1% (3), CUP 4.1% (0/2)

Fieldwork: Feb 16-19. Sample size: 700 (phone)

What kind off cooperations might we see after the elections?!  PSOE+IU+Podemos and PP+C's?!

I have not a clue.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Nanwe on February 27, 2015, 09:01:54 am
What kind off cooperations might we see after the elections?!  PSOE+IU+Podemos and PP+C's?!

The issue with this is that essentially all (or most) polls are bogus. Now besides that, it's impossible to say, there has not been such kind of parliamentary instability predicted by the polls in Spain since the Second Republic, so there's literally no proper historical precedent (those who remember the IIa and are alive were children at the time most likely) of a situation like this in Spain. Which shows in the fact, that even if we pretend that polls aren't being cooked up maliciously, pollsters don't quite know what to do.

Asking what'll happen at the moment is like asking someone to look into some kind of crystal ball to see the future. Someone could say something, but it'd be either very obvious or very bogus.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on February 28, 2015, 08:51:00 am
I would like to ask the opinion of our fellow Spaniards on the matter of C's : do you, as a gut-feeling and knowing what you know about your country's present political situation, feel that they are more realistically polling 5-6 or 13-15 nationally ? Because it seems to me like they are polling dramatically in general election polls, but the numbers just don't add up when you take it to the regional levels, a bit like Podemos, as a matter of fact.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 28, 2015, 12:58:26 pm
I think it's more realistic assuming that C's is actually polling 5-6 nationwide. On the other hand, I have little doubt that the "window of opportunity" for the Rosa Díez's UPyD has passed and Albert Rivera (like it or not) is the man of the moment, that is to say, the representative of "new politics" for moderate and centre-right voters angry with establishment politicians whom deem Podemos too radical. My impression is that at some point in the near future UPyD and C's could merge or, given the current trend, it's possible that the latter will end absorbing the former.

As for Podemos, I think the Andalusian election is key for them, as well as the result in Madrid. Podemos is still lacking of candidates and the left in Madrid is currently a terrible mess, with the IU broken in several pieces and the PSOE struggling to survive with a new candidate who, on the other hand, I think it's excellent. I don't mean that Ángel Gabilondo is going to achieve a great electoral success (it's nearly impossible, given the pitiful state of Madrid's PSOE), but a man who quotes Kant in public meetings is rather unusual in Spanish politics and he looks so different from our average politicians that I can't help but feeling some kind of empathy. 


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: FredLindq on February 28, 2015, 05:08:36 pm
My quesrion is, how will the parties work out functioning majoritets in this Political landscape?!


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on February 28, 2015, 06:29:29 pm
Andalusian election polls.

Deimos, University of Granada.

PSOE 33.4% (39 seats), PP 25.7% (33), Podemos 22.3% (25), C's 7.8% (7), IU 6.1% (5), UPyD 1.5% (-), PA 1.5% (-)

Fieldwork: Feb 18-25. Sample size: 1539

Celeste-Tel / La Opinión de Málaga

PSOE 36.7% (48), PP 27.4% (35), Podemos 14.7% (17), IU 7.4% (6), C's 6.1% (3), PA 3.1% (-), UPyD 2.6% (-)

Fieldwork: Feb 12-20. Sample size: 2400

IMC / ABC Sevilla

PSOE 37.8% (44-48), PP 30.7% (39-42), Podemos 12% (12-14), C's 5% (3-5), IU 4.7% (3-5), UPyD 2.4% (-), PA 1.1%

Fieldwork: Feb 16-21. Sample size: 1100

General election

Simple Lógica (Gallup partner)

Podemos 29.6%, PP 26.8%, PSOE 17.8%, C's 8.5%, UPyD 3.6%, IU 3.4%, CiU 3%, PNV 1%, Others 6.2%

Filedwork: Feb 2-9. Sample size: 1058

http://www.simplelogica.com/iop/iop15003_intencion_voto_popularidad_lideres.asp

Take a pound of salt.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Nanwe on March 01, 2015, 06:01:07 am
Note: This is not a poll. This is the prediction that Electomanía (a online group of so-called electoral experts) and its users have made for the Andalucian elections. I think it's relatively spot on.

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Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 01, 2015, 09:56:12 am
Another Andalusian poll. A certain Mr. Toharia, who is the Metroscopia's chief, seems to be in love with Mr. Rivera, the leader of Ciudadanos.

Metroscopia / El País

PSOE 34.6% (40-44), PP 22.7% (27-31), Podemos 16.7% (18-22), C's 11% (8-12), IU 6.8% (5-9), UPyD 2.8% (-), Others 4.2%

Fieldwork: Feb 23-24. Sample size: 1000 (phone)

Murcia (regional election)

CEMOP / La Verdad

PP 39.4% (21-22 seats), PSOE 21.9% (10-11), Podemos 17.5% (8-9), C's 11.4% (3-4), IU 5.8% (1), UPyD 3.1% (-)

Fieldwork:  Feb 2-13. Sample size: 1458

Murcia is a PP stronghold and the ruling conservative party would have a -20.9% swing. If that poll reflects accurately the trend in the Murcia region, then Ciudadanos would be taking nearly all the space between PP and PSOE, while the UPyD might be condemned to dissapear. Murcia was the second best region for UPyD in the EP elections, only behind Madrid. However, I will believe that C's surge when I see it. The regional assembly has 45 seats, so Ciudadanos would have the key in the formation of the government.

General election:

Invymark / La Sexta

PP 27.8%, Podemos 23.6%, PSOE 21.5%, C's 6.4%, UPyD 4%, IU 3.8%, CiU 2.8%, ERC 2.8%, PNV 1.1%, Others 6%

Fieldwork: Feb 26



Note: This is not a poll. This is the prediction that Electomanía (a online group of so-called electoral experts) and its users have made for the Andalucian elections. I think it's relatively spot on.

As you say, that is the average prediction made by a group of poll junkies (I'd say it's 'amateur' instead of 'expert' people and certainly those 'barometers' lack of professional methodology). Sometimes such predictions can be more spotted on than actual polls, and our polling industry is untrusted for good reasons. Anyway, I suspect that political leanings influence people's predictions and the percentage for "others" is way too high (aside the Vox Party and the animal rights PACMA, the rest of forces are too insignificant).


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 04, 2015, 05:27:06 pm
Shocking Catalan polls. GESOP / El Periódico.

Parliament of Catalonia (135 seats):

CiU 20.1% (31-32), ERC 17.3% (27-28), C's 17.8% (23-24), PP 9.8% (12-13), Podem 9.8% (11-12), PSC 7.9% (10-11), CUP 7.1% (9-10), ICV 6.9% (8-9)

The sample size is small (800) and the poll was conducted between Feb 20 and 26.

CiU and ERC down because the stagnation of the separatist process, while the radical left CUP is on the rise. C's would be the second party in popular vote, but gets less seats than ERC due to malapportionment. Podemos is down from the last GESOP poll and PSC falls to the 6th place.

General election (47 seats):

CiU 17% (10), Podem 20.5% (9), ERC 13.7% (7-8), C's 15.7% (7), PP 11.9% (6), PSC 11.3% (5-6), ICV 3.6% (1), CUP 3.4% (1)

Podemos would be the party with the most votes in Catalonia in a general election and C's would come third, but malapportionment favours again nationalist parties (CiU and ERC). Terrible results for PP and PSOE and ICV-EUiA , reduced to a single seat. The separatist CUP has never contested Spanish elections, and I have no reason to think that the next will be different.

Sample size: 800. Fieldwork: Feb 20-26.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 05, 2015, 07:59:27 am
CIS / Andalusian elections.

PSOE 34.7% (44), PP 25.7% (34), Podemos 19.2% (21-22), IU 6.6% (4-5), C's 6.4% (5), UPyD 2.3% (-), PA 1.2% (-)

Sample size: 3180 (face to face). Fieldwork: Jan 30 - Feb 17

The Parliament of Andalusia has 109 seats (majority= 55).

Direct vote intention (raw data): PSOE 25.5%, Podemos 13.7%, PP 12.8%, IU 3.8%, C's 3-5%,  UPyD 1.7%, PA 0.8%, Others 0.6%, blank 4.7%, null 0.7%, won't vote 11%, don't know 16.7%, don't answer 4.6%

By province.

Almería: PSOE 36.3% (5), PP 25.9% (4), Podemos 14.4% (2), C's 6.6% (1), IU 4.4% (-), UPyD 2.3% (-)

Cádiz: PSOE 29.8% (5), Podemos 25.3% (4), PP 21.8% (4), C's 6.9% (1), IU 6.7% (1), UPyD 3.4% (-), PA 2% (-)

Córdoba: PSOE 35.9% (5), PP 25.9% (4), Podemos 18.3% (2-3), IU 6.1% (0-1), C's 4-9% (-), UPyD 1.8% (-), PA 1.6% (-)

Granada: PSOE 34.4% (5), PP 28.5% (4), Podemos 15.2% (2), IU 6.8% (1), C's 6.5% (1), UPyD 3.2% (-)

Huelva: PSOE 39.4% (5), PP 30.1% (4), Podemos 19.6% (2), IU 5.8% (-), C's 2.7% (-), UPyD 1%

Jaén: PSOE 37.3% (5), PP 31% (4), Podemos 17% (2), IU 5.6% (-), C's 4.8% (-), UPyD 1.4%

Málaga: PSOE 31.6% (6), PP 30.5% (6), Podemos 17.1% (3), IU 6.9% (1), C's 6.7% (1), UPyD 2.4% (-)

Sevilla: PSOE 37.2% ( 8 ), Podemos 21.2% (4), PP 20.2% (4), C's 7.8% (1), IU 7.7% (1), UPyD 2.1% (-), PA 1.9% (-)

http://datos.cis.es/pdf/Es3053mar_A.pdf


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on March 05, 2015, 10:36:06 am
How much would you say Podemos has to cross in Andalucía to get respect nationally and the feeling that they are a worthwhile force ? 20 % ? 15 %

And why is Cádiz their best result ? Is it a left-wing stronghold in general ? I always thought of it rather as a sort of Nice or Toulon conservative city, but I admit I never looked into it.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 05, 2015, 02:41:10 pm
It'd be better for them getting 20% of the vote, although any result above 15% would be good given the circumstances.

As for Cádiz, there's a difference between the provincial capital and the rest of the province. As you can see in the 2012 election map that I posted before, PP won in the main curban centres (Jerez, Cádiz and Algeciras), as well as in the Bay of Cádiz municipalities (except Puerto Real, which is an industrial town with a shipbuilding industry in decline due to competence from Asian countries) and the Bay of Algeciras. However, the rural municipalities lean PSOE and there are a couple of IU strongholds (Trebujena). In the November 2011 general election, PP got a strong result in the province (47.1%), but in the 2012 regional election it fell to 40.5% getting less votes than the sum of PSOE and IU (35.6% and 12.7%, respectively). In the 2014 EP elections, PP came second behind PSOE and only got 23.6% (in percentage, it's a half of the support they got in 2011).

As for the the city of Cádiz, it has been a PP stronghold in the last 20 years (Teófila Martínez is the mayoress since 1995), but in the EP elections the conservative party won a weak plurality and it was one of the strongest provincial capitals for Podemos in the country (PP 26%, PSOE 21.8%, Podemos 16.3%, IU 10.9%, UPyD 8.7%). Podemos got 10.7% in the Cádiz province, which was its best provincial result in Andalusia.

I haven't researched in depth why Podemos is strong in Cádiz. A couple of possible factors could be:

a) Cádiz is the Spanish province with the highest unemployment rate; by the end of 2014 it was above 42%.

b) The Podemos candidate (MEP Teresa Rodríguez) is from the Cádiz province.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 07, 2015, 11:02:33 am
Mariano Rajoy picked Cristina Cifuentes and Esperanza Aguirre as candidates for regional premier and mayor of Madrid, respectively. Incumbent Madrid premier Ignacio González has been involved in a series of scandals regarding a penthouse he owns in Estepona (Costa del Sol, Málaga) and premium payments to judges through a private compay called Indra. González denounced a conspiracy against him; people in his entourage pointed to a sector of PP wanting to take him off from the race. Ignacio González has been a loyal squire to regional leader Esperanza Aguirre, as well former regional minister Enrique Granados (who is in prison charged with corruption). However, Aguirre remained silent in the controversy around the incumbent premier, seeking to be appointed by Rajoy as mayoral candidate. In any case, it seems that Rajoy made the decision to replace González some time ago. Despite the poor relationship between the Spanish PM and the Madrid regional leader, the decision to appoint Aguirre for the mayoral race responds to pragmatic reasons: she is adored by the PP conservative base and scores better than others in the polls. On the other hand, Cristina Cifuentes is currently the delegate of the Spanish government in Madrid, is a woman of dialogue and moderate, as well as loyal to Rajoy.

In contrast, Mariano Rajoy has gone for continuity in the Valencia region. Incumbent premier Albert Fabra and incumbent mayor of Valencia Rita Barberá will seek reelection.

On the other hand, IU and C's nominated candidates for the Madrid region. Poet Luis García Montero (born in Granada, 1958) will top the IU list in the regional elections after the defection of Tania Sánchez. The new force created by the latter, joined by Equo and other organisations, is still struggling to find a formula to cooperate with Podemos.

The Andalusian campaign started yesterday. I'll copy the brief profile of the main candidates in the English version of El País newspaper. According to that, those candidates represent a "new generation of leaders".

Susana Díaz (PSOE). In the machine room

Born in Seville in 1974, she became Andalusia’s first woman regional premier when she took over from the embattled José Antonio Griñán in 2013. Díaz received her training at different Socialist Party (PSOE) headquarters where she was close to the party’s political machinery. She has served as a councilor, deputy in Congress, regional lawmaker, senator, and is now head of Spain’s largest region.

As premier, Díaz has tried to fight the corruption that has engulfed Andalusia, which came to a head when a judge began investigating the so-called ERE case, a multi-million fraud probe involving the misuse of a public layoff fund.

She decided not to run for PSOE secretary general last year – a post won by Pedro Sánchez. Her public differences with Sánchez, whom she supported, have now become noticeable. She has said she will not run in the party primaries to select a prime ministerial candidate because she wants to continue as Andalusian regional premier. A lawyer, Díaz is married and now pregnant with her first child.


Juan Manuel Moreno (PP). An impossible challenge

Moreno faces an uphill battle, according to the polls, which predict he will not garner the majority of votes that the Popular Party (PP) took under Javier Arenas in 2012. Then the PP won 50 seats but was five short of an absolute majority in the Andalusian parliament. The Socialists were able to convince the IU to form a partnership government, which remained in place for nearly three years.

Born in Barcelona in 1970 to Andalusian parents, Moreno became the PP leader in the region just a year ago. Before that he served as secretary of state for social services and equality under then-Health Minister Ana Mato.

Antonio Maíllo (IU). A leader with no opposition

Maíllo became United Left (IU) regional coordinator in 2013 following an unusual assembly meeting in which there was no internal bickering nor votes cast against his candidacy. A Córdoba native, he was a political unknown until he became coordinator. He has been with the IU since he was 18 and served as councilor in Sanlúcar (Cádiz) and Aracena (Huelva) – two municipalities where he taught Latin.

Maíllo arrived on the scene shortly before Susana Díaz took over as regional premier but the two did not share the same camaraderie as their predecessors Griñán and previous IU coordinator, Diego Valderas.

Maíllo studied classical philosophy and is the first gay candidate (“that I know of,” he says) to run for regional premier in Andalusia. Besides Latin and Greek, he speaks English and Italian.


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Teresa Rodríguez (Podemos). The activist teacher

Podemos was no doubt caught off guard by the announcement of early elections in the region. The formation had no candidate and there were doubts about Rota-native Teresa Rodríguez stepping in. A member of the far-left Anti-Capitalist Left faction of the new political force, she could become the secretary general of Podemos in Andalusia when internal elections are held after the regional race.

She began her political career at 18 when she joined IU, and was on the party’s election slate in 2000. Last year, she was elected euro deputy for Podemos – a post she held for 10 months.

A language and literature teacher, Rodríguez has also been an activist, taking part in protests at the Rota naval base and coming out against the European Constitution.


Juan Marín (Ciudadanos). From business to politics

The most recent of the five to arrive on the political scene, Sanlúcar native Marín says he first got involved in politics in 2007 when a trash strike was in full swing in his home city. “His wife said: ‘Juan, if we don’t do something, we are going to have to move,’” recalls one of his advisors.

After the municipal elections, he formed the Independent Citizens Party of Sanlúcar, based on almost identical ideas to those of Albert Rivera’s Ciudadanos, which he joined in 2011.

After studying labor relations, Marín took over his family jewelry business and is active in local business owners’ associations.

During the 2007 elections, his party won three city council seats and formed a pact with the Socialists that allowed him to serve as deputy mayor of Sanlúcar.


Here, an article on the new emerging force in the Spanish centre-right, stressing the tireless online presence of C's leader Albert Rivera and entitled "How Ciudadanos took on Podemos at their own digital name".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/03/05/inenglish/1425573337_792747.html

Certainly, Podemos has no longer the exclusive of "new politics". On the other hand, the friendliness of media with Ciudadanos is evident. Also, people at PP is starting to worry and launching some clumsy attacks, which the agile and dialectically skilled Rivera has little problem to counteract.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Nanwe on March 08, 2015, 08:41:31 am
Time for Metroscopia's poll. And copying Velasco's style.


General election:

Metroscopia / El País

Podemos 22.5%, PSOE 20.2%, PP 18.6%, C's 18.4%, IU 5.6%, UPyD 3.6%, Others 11.1%


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 08, 2015, 03:14:41 pm
Albert Rivera: The Charming Naranjito Man.

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Some columnist at eldiario.es nicknamed Albert Rivera "the IBEX 35 Prince Charming". The reasons to explain C's meteoric rise are the support from the economic establishment (the employment of liberal economists Luis Garicano and Manuel Conthe would have reassured IBEX 35 companies); the relative cleanliness of C's (despite certain issues concerning some party members) as opposed to corruption in PP ranks; and that PP has not so much hidden vote as some pollsters used to believe (angry and disillusioned people actually went to abstention).

According to a sociologist quoted in the article, in past Catalan elections C's attracted voters swinging between PP and PSC. However, in the rest of Spain is different. There C's appeals to PP voters wanting a clean party, those moderates whom once were supporters of the UCD and CDS.  C's is placed in the centre-right nationwide, even though back in 2006 its Catalan founders defined Ciutadans as a centre-left social liberal force opposed to peripheral nationalism. The strong support that C's is getting from media (ranging from El País to Pedro J Ramírez, I believe) plays a key role and its motivation is that C's is seen as an option to stem the Podemos rise. Quoting C's propaganda, they represent "the sensible change" as opposed to Rivera's sentence "Podemos is vengeance".  

http://www.eldiario.es/zonacritica/Causas-meteorico-despegue-Albert-Rivera_6_363673650.html

Worthy of mention is that PP spokesman Rafael Hernando has been already campaigning for Albert Rivera. When Hernando attacked Ciudadanos by calling it "naranjito" (in allusion to the official mascot of the 1982 World Cup held in Spain), actually he was serving Rivera the reply on a plate. The C's leader reacted immediately, taking a photo with the mascot (see above) and sending via Twitter the #YoSoyNaranjito" hashtag, which soon became in a trending topic worldwide.

Anyway, the Metroscopia poll is exaggerating the trend. I won't believe that C's is tied with PP until I see it. A strong dose of scepticism is needed these days, in order to preserve sanity.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on March 08, 2015, 07:55:28 pm
Wow. That poll is ... Something.

If the PP are savaged in May, could Rajoy be forced out by the caucus and replaced with a more palatable candudate?

Also should andulacia be its own thread?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Nanwe on March 09, 2015, 01:23:16 am
Wow. That poll is ... Something.

If the PP are savaged in May, could Rajoy be forced out by the caucus and replaced with a more palatable candudate?

Also should andulacia be its own thread?

Don't trust Metroscopia's polls. Essentially PSOE is not higher than PP, and C's is not that high, and most likely the PP is still first party with 23-27% of the vote. And if the PP loses it's likely that Rajoy will resign but he won't be forced out, after more than a decade at tht helm of the PP and having survived the 2008 challenge, his control of the party is pretty much absolute with the exception of Esperanza Aguirre.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 09, 2015, 03:39:31 am
I doubt that the situation that Rajoy faced in 2008, when he lost an election getting 40% of the vote, was comparable to a  result similar to that poll. Even though PP is a highly disciplined and hierarchical party, I see no way in which Rajoy could survive that catastrophe. I guess that he would quit politics and live comfortably as a Property Registrar. Anyway, I concur with Nanwe in not trusting that pollster in particular. Likely PP is still the first party, although with a low level of support (more or less in the EP election levels, or maybe less) and with Podemos on the heels. In two weeks we'll have the Andalusian election results. I hope they will clarify things a bit, because at this moment we cannot do much more than to speculate pointlessly.

Also should andulacia be its own thread?

Likely it should. Do you prefer a separate thread to post results or something?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on March 09, 2015, 04:17:44 am
I was also shocked by your post implying above that Rajoy himself controls who gets to be lead candidate in the regions. That doesn't seem like very healthy party democracy.

And even crooked polls can be self-fulfilling prophecies.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Nanwe on March 09, 2015, 10:56:18 am
I was also shocked by your post implying above that Rajoy himself controls who gets to be lead candidate in the regions. That doesn't seem like very healthy party democracy.

And even crooked polls can be self-fulfilling prophecies.

There's no implying. In the PP there's no internal democracy, Rajoy meets with his trusted people and decides. It's a digital system, the leader picks with his finger. Not even façade primaries, like in the PSOE.

Look, in Spanish politics there's a big phantom, that of the UCD. A party torn apart by internal disputes that led to its electoral disintegration (unlike most parties where it's the other way around), the UCD was a centre-left-to-centre-right  party (as I'm sure you know) with its organised currents and families vying for control under the long shadow of Suárez only waiting for him to grow weak to try and take over. The result was abysmal for the party and the Spanish's right: forced into opposition due to its lack of strength for 14 long years. And again whenever there were signs of weakness (like AP's lackluster results in 1986 and the ensuing crisis), the right has almost collapsed due to internal fights. There's a reason Aznar first and then Rajoy have followed a policy of total and absolute control over their party. The fact that one, one deputy out of 186 would vote against a law from his own government about abortion resulted in a considerable media frenzy. There are no defectors in the party, everyone always insists that the party is always united, one mind, one party. And of course that mind is controlled by the party leader, who leads the party balancing the pro-Rajoy factions within and slowly excluding the anti-Rajoyists from any important position. Aznar did similarly.

But Velasco is right, perhaps the PP will throw him out, although I doubt it, I think he'll resign anyway. If I'm wrong, I'll invite Velasco for drinks.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Famous Mortimer on March 09, 2015, 12:21:43 pm
Okay, the Cs are quite frequently polling over 10%. What's the deal? How can a regional party be that popular? Are they even running outside Catalonia? Is anti-nationalism their main appeal? I've also heard that they were anti-immigrant, are they benefiting from that? Then again, the person who told me that was a hardcore communist who thinks anything short of open borders is xenophobic, so I legitimately don't know.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 09, 2015, 02:23:10 pm
But Velasco is right, perhaps the PP will throw him out, although I doubt it, I think he'll resign anyway. If I'm wrong, I'll invite Velasco for drinks.

I only say that falling from absolute majority to a third place must imply necessarily a rebelion among territorial 'barons' and cadres. Anyway you are probably right; in that fictional scenario Rajoy could lead the way by resigning. Mariano should never have left Pontevedra. On the other hand, you gave a good explanation on how PP works internally ;)

Okay, the Cs are quite frequently polling over 10%. What's the deal? How can a regional party be that popular? Are they even running outside Catalonia? Is anti-nationalism their main appeal? I've also heard that they were anti-immigrant, are they benefiting from that? Then again, the person who told me that was a hardcore communist who thinks anything short of open borders is xenophobic, so I legitimately don't know.


The deal is that C's seems to be growing fast at the expense of PP and that the rise of a new emerging force together with Podemos implies a death certificate for the two party system.  Also, you are a bit outdated: Ciudadanos is no longer a regional party. They are expanding quickly through the rest of Spain and they got already remarkable results in Madrid and other places in the 2014 EP elections. As for immigration policies, C's leader Albert Rivera thinks that irregular immigrants should not receive the benefits of our universal healthcare system. In that regard he's in the line of the PP government, which excluded irregulars by a royal legislative decree issued in 2012.

Here's a link in Spanish mentioning some C's proposals:

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/02/15/54e11134ca4741aa038b4574.html


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Nanwe on March 10, 2015, 01:15:05 pm
But Velasco is right, perhaps the PP will throw him out, although I doubt it, I think he'll resign anyway. If I'm wrong, I'll invite Velasco for drinks.

I only say that falling from absolute majority to a third place must imply necessarily a rebelion among territorial 'barons' and cadres. Anyway you are probably right; in that fictional scenario Rajoy could lead the way by resigning. Mariano should never have left Pontevedra. On the other hand, you gave a good explanation on how PP works internally ;)

Ah ok ok, but still, the drink offer is in place, although the difficult part would be how to do it, since I only go to Spain for Christmas, summer and (not always) either Carnival or Holy Week. And thanks, but the system is relatively easy, how could I get it wrong :P


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 14, 2015, 07:56:10 am
To summarize recent developments in the conformation of the Podemos candidacies for Madrid, José Manuel López will top the 'official' list and will be the likely regional candidate.  Mr López is an agricultural engineer, expert in religions and worked for Caritas and the CEAR (Spanish Refugee Aid Commission). The number two in the list is lawyer Lorena Ruiz-Huerta, who is a young human rights activist. The candidacy will integrate members of the Convocatoria por Madrid, the platform led by the former IU regional candidate Tania Sánchez, and Equo. In order that discussion "did not focus on persons, but on projects", Tania Sánchez decided to step aside and won't run.

As for the city of Madrid, Podemos ("We Can") and the platform called Ganemos Madrid ("Let's Win Madrid") will run together in the 'instrumental party' called Ahora Madrid ("Now Madrid"). Three lists will compete for the candidacy. The 'official' list (that is to say, the list backed by Podemos secretary general Pablo Iglesias) will be topped by former judge Manuela Carmena (Madrid, 1944) and includes Rita Maestre (member of the Podemos' national citizen council), Celia Mayer (Ganemos spokeswoman) and Inés Sabanés (Equo, formerly in IU). The second list represents the Podemos members who don't share the strategies of Claro que Podemos ("Of course we can", the Pablo Iglesias' team) and will include people from Ganemos as well. The dissident faction led by Miguel Urbán got remarkable results in the primaries held to elect the Madrid regional "citizen council" (the Podemos' political direction body). The third list will be topped by Mauricio Valiente, who was elected candidate for Mayor of Madrid in the past IU primaries teaming with Tania Sánchez. Unlike Ms. Sánchez, Mr. Valiente is still an IU member. It's uncertain if IU will rally with Ahora Madrid, because of the outright conflict inside IU Madrid.

Interactive map of regional candidates.

http://www.europapress.es/nacional/noticia-conoce-todos-candidatos-elecciones-autonomicas-2015-20150312124350.html

Regional polls.

Andalusian Parliament election (109 seats):

Sigma Dos / El Mundo

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My Word / Cadena SER

PSOE 33.6% (42), PP 22.3%(26-27), Podemos 19.9% (24-25), C's 10.7% (9-10), IU 6.2% (6-7), UPyD 2%, PA 1.4%, others 1.4%, blank votes 2.5%

Celeste-Tel / various Andalusian papers

PSOE 36.9% (49), PP 26.6% (34), Podemos 14% (16), C's 8.4% (5), IU 6.8% (5), PA 2.9%, UPyD 2.5%, others 1.9%

Commentia / Grupo Joly

PSOE 35.9% (41-46), PP 30.7% (36-39), Podemos 19.4% (18-21), C's 5.6% (5-6), IU 4.1% (3)

Catalonia:

CEO / Generalitat de Catalunya

Parliament of Catalonia (135 seats):

CiU 19.5% (31-32), ERC 18.9% (30-31), C's 12.4% (16-17), Podemos 12.2% (16-17), PP 10.2% (13-14), PSC 8.2% (11-12), CUP 7.3% (10-11), ICV-EUiA 5.8% (6-8), 0thers 3.9%, blank votes 1.6%

Congress of Deputies (general election, 47 seats):

Podemos 21.2% (11-12), CiU 18.8% (12), ERC 15.1% (8-9), PP 11.9% (5-6), PSC 10.8% (5-6), C's 7.9% (2-3), CUP 3.9% (1), ICV-EUiA 3.7% (1), others 4.9%, blank votes 1.8%

http://ceo.gencat.cat/ceop/AppJava/pages/home/fitxaEstudi.html?colId=5268&lastTitle=Bar%F2metre+d%27Opini%F3+Pol%EDtica+%28BOP%29.+1a+onada+2015

Basque Country (municipal elections):

http://www.electograph.com/2015/03/capitales-vascas-febrero-2015-sondeo.html



Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 16, 2015, 12:13:48 pm
The Andalusian campaign reaches the home run, marked by the duel between the parties that represent the "new" and the "old" politics. The outcome will be decided by undecided voters and the future Andalusian government by post-election pacts, given that polls place the likely winner far from getting a majority. Two emerging forces might have the key in the conformation of the government: Podemos and Ciudadanos. While premier Susana Díaz rejects the possibility of dealing with Podemos, she could find an ally if C's fulfills expectations and gets into the regional parliament. A deal between PSOE and C's seems to be the desired outcome for some people in mainstream media, although the new sensation of the Spanish centre-right could charge a high price to Susana Díaz in exchange for stability.

Susana Díaz has been running a personal, self-oriented campaign. The presence of Pedro Sánchez, the national leader of PSOE, has been reduced to the minimum. Sánchez has attended a single rally in Almería opening for Díaz (he didn't appear in the advertising poster of the event: see pic below) and will attend the final act of the campaign. The relationship between Sánchez and Díaz appears to be cold. Susana Díaz focuses on her 18 month management at the head of the regional government, avoiding mentions to 30 years of uninterrupted PSOE rule and specially to Manuel Chaves and José Antonio Griñán, both former premiers under investigation for the ERE scandal. She emphasizes that there are no accused people in PSOE lists and her commitment against corruption. Her campaign message avoids mentions to PP corruption scandals as well; instead, she focuses on issues like public healthcare, nursery schools or scholarship grants. The targets of her criticism are the PP anti-social policies and Podemos. The Andalusian premier is a folksy woman who knows how to connect with common people. She is in her natural element in rural communities (where lies the PSOE strength, specially among women) and popular neighbourhoods, where she's cheered and congratulated for her pregnancy. Opening her campaign video, she introduces herself: "Hello, I'm Susana, you know me".

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In contrast, the rest of candidates have been supported by their national leaders. To counter the low level of knowledge of PP candidate José Manuel Moreno Bonilla, Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy has been actively present in the campaign. The conservative party tries to contain a flow of voters towards other parties, warning the "false promises" of parties which aspire to hold the balance of power (in allusion to C's) and the dangers of "experiments". PP message can be summarized as "the safest option is the devil you know".

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Podemos candidate Teresa Rodríguez, on her part, speaks cautiously trying to keep fear away and to avoid controversial issues and mistakes; opponents remain alert, trying to take advantage of the first and to whip out the latter. Teresa Rodríguez asks for "the vote of courage" which goes beyond resignation. Even though she's a long time activist who comes from the Anticapitalist Left, Teresa Rodríguez is a young woman who speaks softly and doesn't create the impression of being a light-headed radical. However, some people see her "constrained". Podemos campaign acts are usually crowded, especially when Pablo Iglesias and other national leaders are attending.

Despite the rise of Podemos is damaging IU, regional candidate Antonio Maíllo doesn't focus his criticism on them aside some mentions to the vagueness of their proposals. Maíllo ramarks that he's clearly a man on the left, the only one who is running in this election. The IU candidate prefers to charge against PP and PSOE. In the tripartite electoral debate held at the regional TV with Susana Díaz and José Manuel Moreno, Maíllo reproached them because their parties are filled with corruption and both were throwing the opponent's scandals to the face of the other. Maíllo is supported in public acts by national candidate Alberto Garzón, who deems a deal with PSOE as highly unlikely due to the break of the coalition government which led to the snap election. IU is fighting for preserving its own space.

On the other hand, the actual candidate of Ciudadanos is not the virtually unknown councilor Juan Marín. It's national leader Albert Rivera who often appears in the campaign affiches and supports his regional candidate in the acts throughout Andalusia. The C's campaign started with a controversy when Rivera talked about giving a fishing rod and teaching Andalusian to fish (that region has a remarkable seafaring tradition). Anyway, Rivera seems to have overcome what some people would have considered a sample of Catalan arrogance. Also, PP spokepersons know how to campaign for him, even without wanting. The delegate of the government in Andalusia dropped a clanger by saying that he doesn't want a Catalan governing Andalusia. Albert Rivera has something in common with the PP candidate: both were born in Barcelona and have family roots in Andalusia.

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Meanwhile, UPyD is fighting to survive. The hopes for the future of the party led by Rosa Díez are vanishing while Ciudadanos, the rival party which competes for the same space, seems to be in a poll honeymoon. Díez, who has been supporting the UPyD candidate Martin de la Herrán in Andalusia, says that waters run murky and there's more competence than before, but she assures that her party is solidly established in Spain. As well Ms Díez thinks that there's a clear motivation in some opinion polls, which in her opinion are aimed to direct the vote. Despite she claims having been under a "brutal pressure" and "attacks", she's determined to resist, endure and face up.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/03/15/55048d5e22601d41248b456e.html


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 18, 2015, 08:49:36 am
Everything points to a PSOE minority government in Andalusia, if we take into account the last statements of Mariano Rajoy and some of the candidates. The Spanish PM assured on Monday that he will allow to govern the party with the most votes. Rajoy, who is fully committed to the campaign, said in a rally held in Málaga that voting IU, Podemos, C's and UPyD is underpinning PSOE in the regional government. On the other hand, Podemos and C's candidates discarded the option of joining a coalition government. Podemos' Teresa Rodríguez was categorical in saying that she's not going to be in a cabinet presided by Susana Díaz, while C's Juan Marín stated that compromising with PSOE is betraying the illusion of their voters.

For his part, IU candidate is engaging in a fight to recover those potential voters running away to Podemos; both parties are ignoring each other in the campaign. There's some lukewarm optimism among IU membership because last polls don't predict a collapse; Maíllo assures that they will give a surprise in the election day and be decisive in the next regional parliament. Also, UPyD spokeswoman Rosa Díaz is campaigning in Andalusia hunting for undecided. Party volunteers are telephoning voters, as well Ms Díez and the regional candidate. They seek being original by initiatives such as improvising meetings in trams or cleaning the Andalusian Parliament with a wipe (in the pic below, Rosa Díez and Martín de la Herrán in full corruption cleansing).

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On the other hand, the crisis in IU Madrid is far from being solved. People at the regional federation (IUCM) decided to run a proper list for the municipal elections, after they called referendum recently to reject the IU's involvement in Ahora Madrid with Podemos and other organisations. Candidate elect Mauricio Valiente has the choice of leaving the party or renouncing to run in the Ahora Madrid primaries. It's a blow for the IU national leadership, which intended to solve the conflict after the Andalusian elections. They fear the repetition of the events which some years ago led to the break of the IU's Basque federation.


Title: Andalusian election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 21, 2015, 05:59:11 am
End of campaign, if anybody cares. Seven candidates in the face of the polls. Summary of mistakes and hits.

Susana Díaz (PSOE):

The incumbent premier intends to win broad enough, in order to govern without problems. A presumed lack of stability in the coalition government was the reason gave by Susana Díaz to break the deal with IU; if she gets a bad result, she will be placed in a weak position. On the other hand, if she manages to gain a forceful victory which helps PSOE to avoid disaster at national level, her influence in the party will be unquestionable. Despite she claims that will stay governing Andalusia, Ms Díaz is the preferred leader for many PSOE heads.

- Hits: She had ran a grassroot campaign aimed to recover the typical socialist voters and has a remarkable ability to connect with the man (and the woman) in the street.

- Mistakes: In live television debates, she left a negative impression. Díaz played an anti-dialogue role, neither listening nor keeping the opponents' speaking time.

- Main proposals: Commitment against corruption and creation of an Anti-Fraud Office, lowering taxes, preservation of social services.

Juan Manuel Moreno (PP):

The challenge of the PP candidate is trying to avoid the bad results that polls have been predicting, with losses ranging between 10 and more than 20 seats. PP fears a knock-on effect in the May municipal elections; the conservative majorities in the Andalusian provincial capitals are at stake.

- Hits: Keeping calm in the debates, gaining an impression of reasonability before Susana Díaz.

- Mistakes: Waiting until the campaign to work on his public image, especially when he was a complete unknown for many Andalusians.

. Main proposals: Mariano Rajoy promised to create 1 million of jobs (literally) during the legislative period, as well as re-industrialisation policies and lowering taxes.

Antonio Maíllo (IU):

The IU candidate tries to preserve the IU strength in the Andalusian Parliament, retaining the 12 seats or at least containing losses.

- Hits: Serious campaign focused on proposals, good performance in debates.

- Mistakes: He has performed a complicated dance trying to highlight the positive aspects of the PSOE-IU coalition government while bashing socialists, as well as to make a difference with Podemos without explicit mentions to them.

- Main proposals: Guaranteeing basic supplies, Public Bank and creation of a Bank of Land.

Teresa Rodríguez (Podemos):

Her main challenge is not disappointing the expectations. Polls predict that Podemos will get strongly in the Andalusian Parliament as the third party with no less than 15 seats. After the election, she will seek the post of regional secretary general. Depending on results, this election might be the first step of the possible change that Podemos is promising for the country. If the result doesn't fulfill expectations, it could be considered as a sign of the beginning of Podemos decline.

- Hits: Booking a velodrome in Dos Hermanas (near Seville) for the final campaign rally, which took place tonight with an attendance estimated between 12 and 15 thousand people, the most crowded of the journey. That facility has been an emblematic place for the Andalusian socialists.

- Mistakes: Renouncing to intervene in a live television debate in which the alternative forces were invited. Podemos sent another representative.

- Main proposals: Citizen's rescue establishing an emergency program for people in risk of social exclusion and eviction; limitation of terms; right of revocation at midterm; audit of public accounts; Office of Public Participation in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Juan Marín (Ciudadanos):

Ciudadanos wants to be the party which holds the balance of power in Andalusia, a result unthinkable few months ago.

- Hits: The campaign highlighted the C's label over the low profile of the candidate, with the ubiquitous and good looking Albert Rivera playing the starring role.

- Mistakes: The Rivera's "fishing rod" metaphor at the beginning of the campaign, which sounded arrogant to Andalusian people.

- Main proposals: Local reform merging municipalities below 5,000 people; integrated action plan for families, freelancers and SMEs; administrative rationalisation to prevent squandering.

Martín de la Herrán (UPyD):

The UPyD candidate is the only who ran in 2012. This election might be the last chance for UPyD to get into the regional parliament.

- Hits: Original and suggestive campaign.

- Mistakes: Despite the above mentioned, UPyD has been blurred by Podemos and Ciudadanos.

- Main proposals: Fight against corruption, legislation to prevent budget cuts.

Antonio Jesús Ruiz (PA):

The regionalist Andalusian Party has been unrepresented in the regional parliament since 2008. The PA enters in the 50th year of existence.

- Hits: Not giving up.

- Mistakes: Pretending to be the only ones whom wave the Andalusian flag. On the other hand, advocating for regional patriotism is not enough in the current state of affairs.

Freak Time!!!

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The ultraconservative Vox Party broadcasted a campaign video recreating a dystopian islamized Andalusia in the year 2018. An hypothetical (and obviously mean) Podemos-PSOE administration would have expropriated the Mosque of Córdoba and the Giralda of Seville from the hands of the Catholic Church, in order to consecrate them for Muslim worship. Spanish PM Pablo Iglesias (Podemos), representatives from 20 Muslim countries and even Celia Villalobos from the Andalusian PP would be attending a great event at the Córdoba Mosque. One can suppose that the reestablishment of the Cordoba Caliphate would be around corner.

All this nonsense is due to a Podemos proposal to return those historical monuments to public ownership. The Mosque and the Giralda were granted to the Church during the Franco regime and the Bishopric of Córdoba collects a good sum of money by selling tickets to visitors, with the aggravating factor that information leaflets name the monument "Cathedral", which is certainly unhistorical. Given that after the Castilian conquest the Mosque was consecrated to Christian worship, many people calls the monument "Mosque-Cathedral".



Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on March 22, 2015, 07:29:30 am
So how are things looking ?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 22, 2015, 08:10:38 am
This is what is saying the online paper eldiario.es. Take it with a grain of salt.

Apparently, internal surveys commissioned by the main parties place PSOE between 45 and 48 seats, falling short between 7 and 10 seats of a majority. PP would lose much ground getting between 23% and 25% of the vote and winning 29-31 seats. Podemos would win around 15 seats, which sounds somewhat disappointing. Ciudadanos would get into the regional parliament winning more than 10 seats and holding the balance of power. Finally, IU would place 5th.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 22, 2015, 08:42:52 am
It seems that turnout is going to be higher than it was in 2012. At 14:00 (CET) was nearly 34% (+4.7%).

Turnout by province at 14:00, from the official website.

Almería 32.87% (+3.65%)

Cádiz 31.15% (+5.4%)

Córdoba 35.96% (+4.11%)

Granada 34.8% (+3.95%)

Huelva 30.8% (+3.78%)

Jaén 36.76% (+3.87%)

Málaga 32.22% (+4.13%)

Sevilla 33.94% (+5.94%)

Total Andalusia 33.94% (+4.65%)

http://www.resultadoseleccionesparlamentoandalucia2015.es/01AVAU/DAU01000CI_L1.htm


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 22, 2015, 12:57:21 pm
Turnout at 18:00 (CET)

Almería 48.35% (+2.39%)

Cádiz 48.19% (+6.34%)

Córdoba 53.57% (+3.34%)

Granada 51.86% (+2.44%)

Huelva 46.88% (+2.76%)

Jaén 54.2% (+1.85%)

Málaga 49.61% (+4.95%)

Sevilla 54.83% (+5.3%)

Total Andalusia 51.41% (+4.2%)


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 22, 2015, 01:21:05 pm
First results will be released at 21:00 (CET). It's half an hour later than it was intended and it's due to some problem in a polling station located in Jerez (Cádiz).

Turnout is increasing more in left-leaning districts of Seville. For instance, it's nearly 10% up in Este-Alcosa-Torreblanca and about 9% up in Macarena Norte. PP strongholds in the city are recording lower increases (Los Remedios +1.1%, Nervión + 3.8%).

In the Cádiz province, turnout in Puerto Real is increasing more than 10%. In the EP elections PSOE got around 40% and Podemos placed second with 19%.

In general, turnout is increasing more in urban than rural areas.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 22, 2015, 01:38:07 pm
According to journalist Javier Casqueiro (El País), there is concern at PSOE and PP because they are polling bad at Israelites.

The same journalist provides a projection based on exit polls via Tweeter:

PSOE 41-43 seats, PP 33-36, Podemos 23-26, IU 6, C's 6.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 22, 2015, 02:12:52 pm
Canal Sur Exit Poll

PSOE  33.1% (41-44 seats), PP 26.9% (32-35), Podemos 17.5% (19-22),  C's 8% (6-7), IU 7.3% (6-7).

Official results in approx 1 hour:

http://www.resultadoseleccionesparlamentoandalucia2015.es/01AU/DAU01999CM_L1.htm


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 22, 2015, 03:33:58 pm
The count is going fast. At 53.1%

PSOE 37.6% (50 seats), PP 25.03% (32), Podemos 14.96% (15), C's 8.61% ( 8 ), IU 6.97% (4), UPyD 1.87%, PA 1.63%, PACMA 0.8%, Vox 0.41%


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: jeron on March 22, 2015, 03:45:41 pm
The count is going fast. At 53.1%

PSOE 37.6% (50 seats), PP 25.03% (32), Podemos 14.96% (15), C's 8.61% ( 8 ), IU 6.97% (4), UPyD 1.87%, PA 1.63%, PACMA 0.8%, Vox 0.41%

After about 70% of the vote counted, PSOE is still at 50 seats. So, it seems  the exit poll has underestimated PSOE a bit (and overestimated Podemos)


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Diouf on March 22, 2015, 03:58:38 pm
So PSOE minority government then right? It seems like the coalition partnerns until now, IU, will not get enough seats to muster a majority with the PSOE which will make it somewhat harder for the latter to govern. At least it is one majority possibility less than they probably preferred; as the results are now they will have to get some kind of accept for legislative proposals by PP, Podemos or C's


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: jeron on March 22, 2015, 04:20:01 pm
So PSOE minority government then right? It seems like the coalition partnerns until now, IU, will not get enough seats to muster a majority with the PSOE which will make it somewhat harder for the latter to govern. At least it is one majority possibility less than they probably preferred; as the results are now they will have to get some kind of accept for legislative proposals by PP, Podemos or C's

A new coalition between PSOE and IU wasn't very likely anyway considering the events in the last couple of months. The only possibilty for a majority government seems to be a PSOE-Ciudadanos coalition.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Diouf on March 22, 2015, 04:42:26 pm
So PSOE minority government then right? It seems like the coalition partnerns until now, IU, will not get enough seats to muster a majority with the PSOE which will make it somewhat harder for the latter to govern. At least it is one majority possibility less than they probably preferred; as the results are now they will have to get some kind of accept for legislative proposals by PP, Podemos or C's

A new coalition between PSOE and IU wasn't very likely anyway considering the events in the last couple of months. The only possibilty for a majority government seems to be a PSOE-Ciudadanos coalition.

But I'm quite sure that the PSOE would have liked it as a majority possibility when proposing laws. In many cases they would probably still be the easiest party for them to agree with


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 22, 2015, 04:54:07 pm
So PSOE minority government then right? It seems like the coalition partnerns until now, IU, will not get enough seats to muster a majority with the PSOE which will make it somewhat harder for the latter to govern. At least it is one majority possibility less than they probably preferred; as the results are now they will have to get some kind of accept for legislative proposals by PP, Podemos or C's

A new coalition between PSOE and IU wasn't very likely anyway considering the events in the last couple of months. The only possibilty for a majority government seems to be a PSOE-Ciudadanos coalition.

But I'm quite sure that the PSOE would have liked it as a majority possibility when proposing laws. In many cases they would probably still be the easiest party for them to agree with

There will be a PSOE minority government, in all likelihood propped up by Ciudadanos. A PSOE-C's coalition agreement is very unlikely, given that there are many elections this year and joining a socialist cabinet would harm the Albert Rivera party. Firstly, because many of C's voters come from PP; secondly, because they intend to represent the "new politics" in competition with Podemos.

The count is almost finished and the picture is not going to move.

At 99.4%:

PSOE 35.45% (47 seats), PP 26.74% (33), Podemos 14.84% (15), C's 9,27% (9), IU 6.89% (5), UPyD 1.93%, PA 1.63%, PACMA 0.8%, Vox 0.45%

In a quick valuation, I'd say...

Winners: Susana Díaz (PSOE), Albert Rivera (C's)

Podemos: Mixed feelings. It's really a strong result for a new party, but not enough to change things (and they expected around 20 seats)

Losers: Mariano Rajoy (PP), IU, UPyD


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 22, 2015, 05:32:35 pm
Provincial results (100% counted)

Almería: PP 36.99% (5 seats), PSOE 32.84% (5), Podemos 10.92% (1), C's 9,38% (1), IU 4,18% (-)

Cádiz: PSOE 31.63% (6), PP 24.01% (4), Podemos 18.87% (3), C's 10.42% (1), IU 6.69% (1)

Córdoba: PSOE 35.97% (5), PP 27.33% (4), Podemos 12.58% (1), IU 10.01% (1), C's 7.68% (1)

Granada: PSOE 34.61% (5), PP 30.02% (4), Podemos 13.89% (2), C's 9.57% (1), IU 6.1% (1)

Huelva: PSOE 40.96% (6), PP 26.43% (3), Podemos 13.14% (1), C's 7.14% (1), IU 6.25% (-)

Jaén: PSOE 42.68% (6), PP 29.08% (4), Podemos 11.04% (1), C's 5.95% (-), IU 5.73% (-)

Málaga: PSOE 30.11% (6), PP 28.34% (5), Podemos 15.08% (3), C's 11.78% (2), IU 7.37% (1)

Sevilla: PSOE 38.09% ( 8 ), PP 22% (4), Podemos 16.58% (3), C's 9.14% (2), IU 7.02% (1)

Top 10 cities:

Sevilla: PSOE 30.8%, PP 27.18%, Podemos 17.97%, C's 11.54%, IU 5.44%

Málaga: PP 27.49%, PSOE 25.33%, Podemos 17.86%, C's 14.09%, IU 7.09%

Córdoba: PP 32.48%, PSOE 23.5%, Podemos 16.06%, C's 11.44%, IU 9.49%

Granada: PP 37.62%, PSOE 21.78%, Podemos 15.52%, C's 13.81%, IU 5.11%

Jerez: PSOE 29.16%, PP 25.67%, Podemos 19.04%, C's 12.07%, IU 6.19%

Almería: PP 36.99%, PSOE 32.84%, Podemos 10.92%, C's 9.38%, IU 4.18%

Huelva: PSOE 30.89%, PP 26.49%, Podemos 17.71%, C's 11.48%, IU 6.1%

Marbella: PP 31.98%, PSOE 29.79%, Podemos 13.92%, C's 11.12%, IU 5,62%

Dos Hermanas: PSOE 34.45%, Podemos 21.85%, PP 17.78%, C's 11.73%, IU 6.24%

Cádiz: Podemos 28.93%, PP 25.53%, PSOE 20.8%, C's 11.81%, IU 5.1%

On a side note, Podemos comes first ahead of PSOE in Puerto Real (Cádiz province) and IU wins in Marinaleda (Seville). The latter is the fiefdom of the 'revolutionary' agrarian Juan Manuel Sánchez Gordillo, who has been switching between IU and Podemos: IU got 43% of the vote (67% in 2012) and Podemos 29%.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 22, 2015, 07:22:46 pm
Assessment of the outcome by Ignacio Escolar (summarized)

1) Susana Díaz won. In the present circumstances, winning the same number of seats as in 2012 (despite having lost 120,000 votes) is a reason for celebration in the Andalusian PSOE. A deal with C's is possible, but she really doesn't need them to govern in minority.

2) Susana Díaz will find harder her leap to Madrid: she committed herself with Andalusia and, by the moment, the influential former PM Felipe González is not for favouring the move. It can't be discarded anyway. It's not clear if the result is good for PSOE nationwide or just a personal triumph for Díaz.

3) Double defeat for PP: conservatives fall from 50 to 33 seats and face competence from the centre-right: Ciudadanos. Since early 90s to date, PP has exercised a monopoly in the space between the centre and the far-right.

4) The main loser is Mariano Rajoy. He will face some pressure inside his ranks, even some people may suggest that Mr Rajoy shouldn't be candidate. However, it's possible that nothing happens in PP until the May elections have passed.

5) Escolar thinks that Podemos got a great result in a territory difficult for them. However, the result doesn't fulfill their previous expectations. Also, with that result it will be hard for Podemos to become in the first party in Spain.

6) IU bears the worst brunt of the Podemos surge and the coalition government with PSOE, usual fate of minor parties. The only good news is that they retain the 5 seats needed to form a parliamentary group.

7) The two-party system comes out damaged, but not dead. However, in the present convulse climate of the Spanish politics Andalusia is her own microclimate. In the next May elections PP and PSOE could not resist the tide in all territories.


Podemos secretary general Pablo Iglesias announces via Facebook that he and former IU candidate for Madrid Tania Sánchez are no longer in a relationship. According to Iglesias, they make it public in order to avoid rumours and malicious comments in this phase of pre-electoral full negotiating mode. Tania Sánchez published the same message in her wall. Strange announcement in an election night.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Mynheer Peeperkorn on March 23, 2015, 05:15:29 pm
Great results! In 5 years the arrogant postmodernists of POBREMOS would be just a bad memory.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 23, 2015, 09:04:43 pm
Great results! In 5 years the arrogant postmodernists of POBREMOS would be just a bad memory.

I was missing your trolling, where have you been? ;)

Firstly, in five years we could be all dead; secondly, you spelled bad the name of the party.

As for "arrogant postmodernists", I could agree to some extent on the first epithet in the case certain Podemos leaders (normal, every organisation must have a quota of arrogance). I don't know what are you meaning with "postmodernist", maybe because of your usual lack of elaboration. In any case, "post-Gramscian" could be more fitting. Have you ever heard about Ernesto Laclau?

Probably not. Anyway, he was a political theorist who died a few years ago and apparently his theories influenced a certain Íñigo Errejón, who passes to be the Podemos mastermind. I think that I intended to talk about him before. At least, your post has brought it to my mind.



Vote shifts:

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Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Mynheer Peeperkorn on March 24, 2015, 05:11:49 pm
Have you ever heard about Ernesto Laclau?


I've wrote some small articles against him.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: politicus on March 24, 2015, 05:14:25 pm
Have you ever heard about Ernesto Laclau?


I've wrote some small articles against him.

More of a Chantal Mouffe man, eh?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Mynheer Peeperkorn on March 24, 2015, 05:20:24 pm
He was better than Hardt & Negri, that's for sure.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Mynheer Peeperkorn on March 24, 2015, 05:27:55 pm
Nice article from El Plural: "The 6 mistakes of PABLEMOS":

http://www.elplural.com/2015/03/22/seis-errores-que-explican-el-pinchazo-de-podemos-en-andalucia/


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 24, 2015, 06:44:46 pm
Have you ever heard about Ernesto Laclau?


I've wrote some small articles against him.

More of a Chantal Mouffe man, eh?

A bit more than her consort and vice versa, I guess.

It's a pity that not all the people here is fluent in Spanish. Anyway this one is for you two: Pablo Iglesias interviews Chantal Mouffe (full program, 53 m)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXS5zqijfA4

Do you have links to your "little articles"?

Anyway:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/09/ernesto-laclau-intellectual-figurehead-syriza-podemos

Quote
When Ernesto Laclau passed away last April aged 78, few would have guessed that this Argentinian-born, Oxford-educated post-Marxist would become the key intellectual figure behind a political process that exploded into life a mere six weeks later, when Spanish leftist party Podemos won five seats and 1.2m votes in last May’s European elections (...)

Íñigo Errejón wrote the following obituary:

http://www.versobooks.com/blogs/1578-ernesto-laclau-theorist-of-hegemony

Quote
Although I had a few of his books on the shelves of my childhood home, it was not until the last year of my degree that I read Ernesto Laclau, together with his personal and intellectual compañera Chantal Mouffe, for a 2005-6 seminar by Professor Javier Franzé. I remember how dense and complex the fragment of Hegemony and Socialist Strategy struck me as, and I would later return to it pencil in hand. But certainly already it shook up some of my certainties and opened up a field of intellectual curiosity to which I would subsequently devote myself (...)

Nice article from El Plural: "The 6 mistakes of PABLEMOS":

http://www.elplural.com/2015/03/22/seis-errores-que-explican-el-pinchazo-de-podemos-en-andalucia/

Well, El Plural is not the epitome of impartiality. Podemos made mistakes in the campaign which the article mentions, but some appreciations in the text are not worthy of the name. Still, it's shocking to qualify the result as it was a failure for Podemos. It's their fault too, because they contributed to create the impression that they had more chances of winning of placing second than they actually had. It's the problem of creating so high expectations, when they are not fulfilled they can create a negative public perception. They'll have to learn, as well as to realise that they are not playing a tennis match in an impeccable English court; politics is more like American Football (and additionally they have media against them). At the end of the day, polls were this time (shockingly) accurate and even the more optimistic placed them third.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: ag on March 24, 2015, 11:02:31 pm
Missed this one was today!

Not bad. Happy PSOE held. Hopefully, Podamos remains a one-season wonder.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 26, 2015, 04:28:01 pm
Premier Susana Díaz is holding consultations with the leaders of the different parties; namely Juan Manuel Moreno (PP), Juan Marín (C's) and Teresa Rodríguez (Podemos). Immediately after the election, Díaz stated that PSOE will govern in minority seeking occasional support from other forces. Susana Díaz has to pass the investiture session first, in which she needs to get a majority of votes in the first round and a plurality of votes in the second (more "yeses" than "nos", in other words).

Regardless what Mariano Rajoy suggested in the campaign, PP changed its mind on Monday. In exchange of allowing the premier's investiture, they demanded reciprocity to the socialists in the next municipal elections (they should allow PP to govern in those municipalities in which their lists get more votes). After the meeting with Díaz, PP's Juan Manuel Moreno said that his party will vote "no" in the first round of the investiture, because they don't believe in Díaz's "recipes", PP's project is "alternative and not complementary" and their stances are opposed in a wide range of issues.

C's Juan Marín, on his part, stated that his party has no intention to join a coalition government and won't support the investiture of Díaz. "Her program is not ours", he said. On Monday, Albert Rivera marked a red line. He demanded that former premiers Manuel Chaves and José Antonio Griñán, both involved in the investigation of the ERE scandal, must resign from their posts in the Spanish Congress. If that condition was fulfilled, Juan Marín would talk with Díaz in the second round.  C's seeks to condition the regional government's agenda from the opposition and ambitions to turn Andalusia in an example of "new politics", in order to consolidate the belief that a "third way" is possible in Spain.

Podemos' Teresa Rodríguez concurred in demanding the immediate resignation of Chaves and Griñán for their political responsibility in the corruption scandals, as well as imposed other two conditions: those financial institutions which have cooperation agreements with the regional government must compromise in not implementing evictions; and the regional government must eliminate a number of advisers and posts of confidence. (the latter condition was demanded as well by C's, together with a reform of the electoral law) If socialists don't accept, Podemos will vote "no".

The Andalusian Parliament will hold the constitutive seeting on April 16 and the investiture must take place before 30.

UPyD is now in full internal crisis. The party's executive is facing great criticism and some of its members have resigned, national deputy Irene Lozano among them.

Regional election polls.

Valencia: Sigma Dos / Las Provincias

PP 30.6% (33-36), PSOE 19.4% (21.22), Podemos 14.3% (15-16), C's 12.9% (14), Compromís 10.2% (9-10), IU 5.2% (4), UPyD 3.9%

(The legislature has 99 seats and there's a 5% threshold at regional level)

Murcia: CEMOP / La Verdad

PP 37.6%, PSOE 21.2%, Podemos 15.7%, C's 15.1%, IU 5.4%, UPyD 3.1%

(No projection of seats)

Navarre: Gizaker / Noticias de Navarra

UPN 24.2% (15 seats), Podemos 16.4% (9), Geroa Bai 15.8% (9), EH Bildu 14.4% (8), PSOE 13.9% (7), PP 5.2% (2), IU 3.3% (1), C's 3% (1), UPyD 2.3%

(50 seats, 3% threshold)

Cantabria: Ikerfel / El Diario Montañés

PP 34.8% (13-14), Regionalists 17.6% (6-7), PSOE 15.3% (5-6), Podemos 13.1% (5), C's 12.5% (4-5), IU 4.1%

(35 seats, 5% threshold)


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Mynheer Peeperkorn on March 29, 2015, 05:51:47 am
PODIAMOS is more "establishment" than IU or Cs. Hilarious.

Now they ask "their people" for 50.000 euros to make their own polls. What a (ink)ing joke.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/03/27/5515a01bca474182518b457e.html


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 29, 2015, 12:29:36 pm
Map time. Leading party by municipality in the 2015 Andalusian parliamentary election:

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The PSOE's dominant position in the Andalusian countryside remains basically unaltered, while the main difference with regard to the 2012 election is that PP's prevalence in urban and coastal areas has vanished somewhat, which is observable at first sight comparing this map with that of the previous election posted on page 5 in this very thread. In the 2012 election PP placed first in all provincial capitals; this time PP lost Seville and Huelva to PSOE and Cádiz to Podemos, retaining weak pluralities in Málaga (<30%) and Córdoba (>30%) and resisting better in the eastern Andalusian capitals (Granada, Almería and Jaén). By provinces, Seville remained as a socialist bastion with some losses (around 34,000 votes, PP lost more than 100,000) and winning in the main urban centres (Dos Hermanas, Alcalá de Guadaíra, Écija and Utrera). In the Málaga province, PP remains as the first party in the Costa del Sol municipalities (Marbella, Fuengirola, Estepona) and other coastal centres such as Nerja or Rincón de la Victoria, albeit with serious losses. However, it lost Vélez-Málaga and Mijas in the coast and the inland centres of Ronda and Antequera to PSOE. While PP won in the city of Granada, the metropolitan area (Vega de Granada) and the rest of the province (including Motril in the coast) went to the socialists. Almería was the best province for PP; they placed first losing around 36,000 votes and retained strongholds such as El Ejido. In Córdoba PP lost much ground in the capital and 115,000 votes in the whole province (PSOE lost around 15,000). In Huelva PP lost more than 28,000 votes (PSOE around 5,5 thousand) and only retained a handful of municipalities, being the most important Lepe (export agriculture, strawberries). In Jaén PSOE won in all municipalities but six, PP retains the capital (the provincial boss said they are invincible there) but lost important provincial centres (Andújar and La Carolina). Cádiz witnessed a PP's free fall, losing the first place in nearly all the municipalities in the Bay of Cádiz (except Rota and Puerto de Santa María and with great losses), as well as the centres in the Bay of Algeciras, next to Gibraltar. Podemos won in the city of Cádiz, once a PP bastion, and the nearby Puerto Real (this town was once on IU's hands). PSOE came first in the rest of urban centres and remained strong in the countryside (La Sierra and La Janda) as usual.

There's a municipal interactive map in El País website which, for some strange reason, hasn't been updated with the full count, thus it has some errors. However it's somewhat useful to check the party strength (you must click on the party's boxes placed down right).

http://elpais.com/especiales/2015/elecciones-andaluzas/graficos/municipios/

The party maps show that both emerging forces, Podemos and Ciudadanos, performed strongly in urban centres but their level of support was considerably lower in rural areas, with singular exceptions in the case of Podemos. In the Podemos map it's somewhat easy to check that their level of support oscillated between 15% and 20% in the provincial capitals, even more in Cádiz where they won a plurality. In Seville and Málaga, Podemos placed second in several working-class municipal districts behind PSOE, as well as in Sevilla Centro behind PP. In peri-urban localities around Seville and many municipalities in the Bay of Cádiz Podemos performed above 20%. It's remarkable that Podemos was close of placing first in El Coronil, a rural municipality south of Seville, getting more than 40%. It's the hometown of agrarian union leader Diego Cañamero (SAT, CUT). C's strongplaces were the provincial capitals and they did quite well in Costa del Sol municipalities. I think the C's strongest result was in Espartinas, west of Seville. C's came second in the Seville district of Los Remedios, where PP got more than 60% of the vote in this election and more than 80% in 2012. IU retained some of its rural traditional strongholds (Marinaleda, Trebujena, etc). Finally, the map of the Andalusian Party (PA) has certain interest in order to watch which are the municipalities where they maintain a certain strength. I think the strongest PA performance was Alanís in Seville province.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 30, 2015, 04:46:55 am
PODIAMOS is more "establishment" than IU or Cs. Hilarious.

Now they ask "their people" for 50.000 euros to make their own polls. What a (ink)ing joke.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/03/27/5515a01bca474182518b457e.html

Wow, I overlooked this. What's the issue here? Those polls will be financed by microcredits, which is the way that Podemos has chosen to fund electoral campaigns. They are asking their people a voluntary contribution, which will be repaid eventually once Podemos receives the state funds every party is legally allocated according to the votes they get in elections. If their people don't want to contribute, Podemos won't call on banks because that's their policy. What's the reason for all of that pointless trolling? God.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on March 31, 2015, 04:22:36 pm
Rather long article on Podemos by Gilles Tremlett, The Guardian correspondent in Madrid. It's worthy of reading because it covers many angles, more than the displayed in the random quotes below.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/31/podemos-revolution-radical-academics-changed-european-politics?CMP=fb_gu


Biographic sketch.

Quote
He is not the first Pablo Iglesias to shake Spain’s political order. He is named after the man who founded the PSOE in 1879. (His parents first met at a remembrance ceremony in front of Iglesias’s tomb.) As a teenager, Iglesias was a member of the Communist Youth in Vallecas, one of Madrid’s poorest and proudest barrios (...)  Even as a teenager, he was “a leader and great seducer”, recalled a senior Podemos member who had attended the same youth group. Iglesias studied law at the Complutense University before taking a second undergraduate degree in political science. He went on to write a PhD thesis on disobedience and anti-globalisation protests that was awarded a prestigious cum laude grade.

Ideological influences: Gramsci, Laclau and Moffe.

Quote
It was at Complutense, where he began to lecture after receiving his doctorate, that Iglesias met the key figures who would help him found Podemos. Deeply influenced by Antonio Gramsci, the Italian Marxist thinker who argued that a key battle was over the machinery that shaped public opinion, this group also found inspiration at the University of Essex. There, the Argentine academic Ernesto Laclau began in the 1970s to write a series of works on Marxism, populism and demoracy which, along with work by his Belgian wife Chantal Mouffe (now at the University of Westminister), have had a profound impact on Podemos’s leadership. Their complex 1985 book, Hegemony and Socialist Strategy, remains a key point of reference for Podemos’s leadership.

Direct democracy,  the unsolved question of balancing grassroot activism and the Iglesias' clique of university professors.

Quote
If Podemos wants to be more than a traditional party or a top-heavy populist movement then it must deliver on direct democracy. The party’s use of transparency websites (detailing all spending, including salaries), voting tools and online debate is already cutting-edge. Its Plaza Podemos debating site regularly attracts between 10,000 and 20,000 daily visitors. “Nothing on this scale using online tools is happening anywhere else in the world,” Ben Knight, one of the entrepreneurs behind a collaborative decision-making app, Loomio, told me.

But on the wider use of direct democracy, as with other matters, Podemos does not yet have a settled strategy. The only fixed principles are that senior party members, including Iglesias, should be sackable by referendum, and that post-electoral coalitions must be voted on by supporters. Whether Podemos can balance the demands of its grassroots activists, who expect to shape policy, with the powerful influence of Iglesias and his clique of Complutense academics, remains one of the most challenging questions for the party’s future.

The uncertain and changing political scene.

Quote
Regional elections on 24 May will show whether Podemos has peaked. In recent months, Ciudadanos, a new centre-right rival, has transformed the political landscape once again. With its pledge to oust the establishment and usher in a new era of transparent, corruption-free politics, Ciudadanos offers a safe alternative to those scared of Podemos. It even has, in Albert Rivera, a young and charismatic – but far more orthodox – leader to rival Iglesias. A resurgent Spanish economy, now growing and creating jobs much faster than most of Europe, may boost Rajoy at the general election or, at least, hand a semi-healed economy to whoever succeeds him. Press scrutiny, which has shone light on the close links between some senior Podemos people and Venezuela, also hurt their brand just before March 22 elections for the parliament of the strongly socialist southern region of Andalucia, where they nevertheless doubled their vote (from European elections) to 15%.

But the Podemos earthquake has already shattered the status quo, forcing the PSOE into electing a young new leader – Pedro Sánchez – while IU disintegrates into bitter infighting over whether to ally with the party that may prove its nemesis. El País’s pollster narrowly makes Podemos Spain’s most popular party, but the party cannot enter government without seeking coalition allies among the “old” parties it damns as part of “la casta”. That may force it into opposition. “Hopefully Podemos would be willing to work with us,” former PSOE minister Juan Fernando López Aguilar told me in Brussels in December. “But so far, I perceive a threatening mix of arrogance, self-infatuation and condescension.”

Conclusion.

Quote
It is tempting to see Podemos as a well-planned operation by a group of talented academics, following a populist script written by a line of radical thinkers, but that would be too simple. It is really the result of an open-ended effort by unorthodox idealists to effect change, combining youthful conviction with a desire to test out their ideas in the real world. As it attempts to forge a new consensus, however, it is inevitably drifting away from its radical roots. At a class Iglesias gave to visiting students at the European parliament in December – perhaps his last for a long time – he recognised that if he governs by Europe’s current capitalist rules, leftwing critics will accuse him of being a cowardly reformist. “The answer to that is: ‘And where are your arms for getting rid of capitalism?’” he said. Realism, then, as much as idealism, will dictate Podemos’s future. Only when put into practice will we discover how, or if, the Podemos participative “method” changes democracy, European politics or ordinary lives. But what is certain is that Iglesias has proved the point he liked to make to his students: the powerful really can be challenged.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on April 17, 2015, 07:48:03 am
So polls are all over the place right now. Podemos is polling between 12 and 22, C's are consistently polling in the high 10s, UPyD seems to have basically vanished from the picture, and there are a few polls which show a near four-way race for first place at around 20 amongst PSOE, PP, Podemos and C's...

C's seems not just the flavo of the week, are they here in the 16% or so to stay ? Could Spaniards help us a bit to understand what's going on ?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on April 17, 2015, 04:05:04 pm
It's hard to tell what's going on, given that polls are showing extremely volatile tendencies in the electorate. Average polling since the beginning of the year places PP and PSOE stable slightly above the 25% and the 20% line, respectively. The big difference is that Podemos reached a peak by the end of 2014 and started to decrease in the first months of 2015, while C's has emerged abruptly in the same period. Right now Podemos is polling just below the 20% line and C's is surpassing the 15% line in the wiki graph:

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This seems to suggest a certain readjustment in the protest vote due to the emergence of a new centre-right party which is collecting much of the voters angry at PP, especially the young and urban middle-to-upper class segment. C's has replaced Podemos as the flavor of the month, although the latter remains strong. Podemos seems to have lost some of its cross-party appeal, due to the emergence of a new actor which promises a "sensible change" to moderate voters (Albert Rivera says that C's is "justice" while Podemos is "vengeance"). That message can touch that portion of the population which hasn't lost everything in the present crisis and can perceive the effect of the slight economic recovery. However, government policy has caused a growing inequality, poverty and social exclusion. I guess that large section pushed to the bottom must be more receptive to Podemos than C's. 

In any case, regional and local elections next month will sketch an extreme fragmentation which will force parties to make deals in order to assure governability. Coalition and governability agreements can determine how things evolve in the second half of the year until the general election takes place.

Meanwhile, former deputy PM and IMF head Rodrigo Rato was arrested yesterday:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/04/17/inenglish/1429284321_297633.html

Quote
Rodrigo Rato, a former International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief and senior government official who was briefly arrested on Thursday in connection with a financial crimes investigation, told EL PAÍS that he owns no companies in tax havens or in any country outside the European Union.

The Tax Agency is investigating Rato, once a top official with the ruling Popular Party (PP), for tax fraud, asset stripping and money laundering (...)


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on April 17, 2015, 05:09:27 pm
Summary of recent polls:

General election:

Sigma Dos / El Mundo

PP 26.6%, Podemos 20.9%, PSOE 19.7%, C's 16.6%, IU 4.4%, ERC 2.3%, CiU 2.1%, PNV 1.2%, UPyD 1.1%

Electograph "Poll of Polls"

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Regional Elections:

Canary Islands (Total: 60 seats): TSA / regional papers

CC 18,9% (14-17 seats), PP 19.7% (11-14), PSOE 18.4% (11-14), NC 11.9% (5-7), Podemos 11.1% (5-6), C's 9,3% (5-6), UNIDOS 4.1% (-)*, ASG 0.5% (1)**

* Coalition including the Canary Nationalist Centre (CCN), the incumbent PP president of the Gran Canaria Cabildo and several small insular groupings.

** PSOE split in La Gomera island led by Casimiro Curbelo.


Castilla y León (Total: 84 seats): Sigma Dos

PP 39.6% (39-43 seats), PSOE 22.2% (21-23), Podemos 13.8% (9-11), C's 13.3% (9-10), IU 5.6% (1), UPL* 1.3% (1)

* Leon regionalist

Valencia (Total: 99 seats): Sigma Dos / El Mundo

PP 29.9% (30-32 seats), PSOE 19.5% (20-21), Podemos 17.3% (17-19), C's 15.2% (15-16), Compromís 8.4% (8), IU 6.8% (6), UPyD 1.6% (-)

Balearic Islands (Total: 59 seats): IBES / Última Hora

PP 22-24 seats, PSOE 13-15, Podemos 8-10, MÉS* 4-6, C's 3-5, PI** 2-3, Guanyem-IU 1-2, Gent (Formentera)*** 1

* Més per Mallorca: left-leaning Catalan nationalist ** Proposta per les Illes: centre-right regionalist *** Left-leaning insular party.

Madrid (Total: 129 seats): Sigma Dos / El Mundo

PP 32.8% (44-45 seats), PSOE 20.7% (28), Podemos 19.2% (25-26), C's 16.6% (22-23), IU 6.5% (8-9), UPyD 1.8% (-)

Local elections:

Madrid (57 councilors): Sigma Dos / El Mundo

PP 34.5% (20-22), AM* 21.2% (12-13), PSOE 18.7% (11), C's 15.1% (9), IU 6.4% (3-4), UPyD 1.4% (-)

* Ahora Madrid: Podemos+Ganemos Madrid

Barcelona (41 councilors): Sigma Dos / El Mundo

BEC* 22.3% (10), CiU 21.4% (9-10), C's 14.6% (6-7), PSC 13.2% (5-6), ERC 12.5% (5-6), PP 10.3% (4), CUP 2.7% (-)

* Barcelona en Comú: Guanyem, Podemos, ICV-EUiA


Valencia (33 councilors): Sigma Dos / El Mundo

PP 31.8% (11-13), C's 16.7% (6), VEC*15.8% (5-6), PSOE 14.8% (5-6), Compromís 12% (4), IU 4.4% (-), UPyD 1.6% (-)

* Valencia en Comú: Podemos+Guanyem Valencia


Sevilla (33 councilors):

PSOE 33.2% (11-12), PP 31.3% (10-11), SSP* 14.6% (5-6), C's 11-9% (4), IU 4.6% (0-1)

* Sevilla Si Puede: Podemos+Ganemos Sevilla



Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on April 20, 2015, 12:46:13 pm
Several polls have been released this weekend at national, regional and local levels.

General election: GESOP / El Periódico de Catalunya

Vote estimation: PP 23.5%, Podemos 20.1%, PSOE 19.1%, C's 17.7%, IU-ICV 3.7%, CiU 2.9%, ERC 1.9%, UPyD 1.4%, Others 9.1%

Projection of seats (Total: 350): PP 102-107, Podemos 78-82, PSOE 75-78, C's 55-59, CiU 10-12, ERC 6-8, IU-ICV 2-4, UPyD 1-2, Others 13-15

Regional elections:

Valencia: Metroscopia / El País

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Local elections:

City of Valencia: Metroscopia / El País

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Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on April 24, 2015, 08:13:02 am
Former Andalusian premier Manuel Chaves (PSOE) announced he will quit politics after this fall's autumn election, following a similar announcement made recently by his peer José Antonio Griñán. Both were called to testify before the Supreme Court earlier this month in connection with the ERE case, a major investigation into the misallocation of as much as €855 million in public funds meant for struggling businesses in Andalusia. While no formal charges have been filled against them, both were interrogated as imputados (a status similar to defendant, I'm not well versed in legal subtleties). After the March 22 regional election, the emerging Podemos and C's parties have been demanding the departure of Chaves and Griñán from politics as not negotiable condition to allow the investiture of Susana Díaz as regional premier.

Íñigo Errejón (Podemos) stated on Chaves' decision that "things are moving", although that's only a first and insufficient step, and attributed the move to the firmness shown by Podemos. "We have said always that it's needed firmness in compromises and the political will to correct what has been done bad and opening doors and windows in the institutions", said Podemos nº2.

Susana Díaz, on her part, stated that she will be elected premier soon. Sources in PSOE confirmed that socialists will accept a decalogue of actions against corruption demanded by the Ciudadanos party. People in the regional government assure that Susana Díaz is confident, given that the "deadlock" to her investiture provoked by the opposition of  PP, C's and Podemos is beginning to crack.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on April 27, 2015, 02:50:16 am
Another serving of regional polls.

Regional elections:

Navarre: CIES / Diario de Navarra

UPN 24.1% (14-15 seats), Geroa Bai 17.1% (9), Podemos 14.7% ( 8 ), EH Bildu 13.7% (7), PSOE 10.2% (5), PP 6.4% (3), C's 5.9% (3), IU 3.2% (0-1), Others 2.7% (-)

Total: 50 seats (26 needed for majority). Threshold: 3% (regional).

That result would make government formation extremely complicated. The ruling UPN (right-wing regionalist) would need 11 or 12 additional seats to get a majority, The investiture of the UPN candidate would be only possible if PP, PSOE and C's don't put obstacles and in the best of cases (UPN at 15 seats). An alternative government would lie in an alliance of Basque nationalists (Geroa Bai and EH Bildu) with Podemos and PSOE. It seems highly unlikely that socialists would engage in such agreement, given the precedents. In 2007 PSOE national executive disowned Navarrese socialists, whom made a deal with Nafarroa Bai (the forerunner of Geroa Bai) and IU to oust UPN from government.  

Canary Islands: Instituto Perfiles / regional papers

CC 18.5% (17 seats), PP 19.5% (13-15), PSOE 18.5% (13-15), Podemos 10.5% (6), C's 10.5% (5-7), NC 7.5% (3-5), UNIDOS 4.5% (-), ASG 0.5% (0-1), Others 10% (-)

Total: 60 seats (majority 31). Thresholds: 6% (regional) and 30% (insular).

Despite a loss of support, the Canary Coalition (centre-right regionalist) has many chances to stay in government. Nowadays there's a ruling CC-PSOE coalition government. Recently CC replaced premier Paulino Rivero in the party leadership by Fernando Clavijo, currently mayor of La Laguna (Tenerife). Clavijo is said to be prone to a CC-PP joint government (rumours say the deal is sealed). In case CC and PP wouldn't get togeher a majority, they would need the C's acquiescence. A deal between progressive forces (PSOE, Podemos, the centre-left New Canaries and incidentally the ASG) falls short from a majority in all cases. Of course other options are possible, for instance a deal between CC, PSOE and NC (or C's). The only way in which CC could be ousted from government is a deal between PP, PSOE and C's.

Extremadura: Metroscopia / El País

PP 37.4% (25), PSOE 31.8% (22), Podemos 13% ( 8 ), C's 10.5% (7), IU 5.4% (3), Others 1.9% (-)

Total: 65 seats (majority 33). Threshold: 5% (provincial).

Premier José Antonio Monago would win again in Extremadura, although PP would be 7 seats down. Monago is quite controversial and was involved in a scandal that goes back to his tenure as senator. In that period, Monago used to visit a girlfriend in Tenerife (Canaries); those pleasure trips were disguised as business ones and funded by the Senate. Recently, Mr Monago is running a campaign focused on himself with no PP logos, something that displeases Mariano Rajoy. The man has certain popularity in the region, but according to this poll his stay is in doubt. PSOE, Podemos and IU gather a majority by the narrowest of margins and could oust Monago. However, the IU regional branch is hostile to PSOE for a number of reasons and has been supporting Monago's government in Extremadura since 2011.

Valencia: My Word / Cadena SER

PP 26.5% (28-31), PSOE 19,7% (22-26), C's 18.1% (17-19), Podemos 13.8% (13-15), Compromís 10.8% (8-11), IU 5.3% (3-5), UPyD 1% (-), Others 4.8% (-)

Total: 99 seats (majority 50). Threshold: 5% (regional).

Total uncertainty. There are chances for PP to stay in government propped up by C's, but such deal is extremely complicated due to likely repercussions at national level. According to this poll, the C's spectacular surge is parallel to a remarkable Podemos decline (compared to previous surveys).

In the city of Valencia, My Word estimates the following result:

PP 26.4% (9-10 councilors), C's 19.1% (6-7), VEC 16.2% (5-6), Compromís 13.9% (4-5), PSOE 13.1% (4-5), IU 5.4% (1-2).

Total: 33 councilors (majority 17). Valencia en Comú (VEC) is the Podemos outfit in the city.






Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on April 27, 2015, 03:18:12 am
Huh, I assumed that the Extramadura PP would be dead in the water, given the circumstances.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on April 27, 2015, 04:06:40 am
Huh, I assumed that the Extramadura PP would be dead in the water, given the circumstances.

Monago has apparently skills for surviving, politically speaking. Other previous polls predicted a better result for PP in Extremadura. In any case Monago is polling better in the region than PP for the general election.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on April 27, 2015, 08:39:03 am
MyWord poll for the general election released today. Worrying for Podemos: it falls from first to fourth place. The polling firm is ran by Belén Barreiro, a sociologist who was the head of the Center of Sociological Investigation (CIS) some years ago, during the Zapatero administration. Barreiro is a very smart woman and I think she's quite good in spotting trends. 

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Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on April 27, 2015, 10:21:39 am
MyWord poll for the general election released today. Worrying for Podemos: it falls from first to fourth place. The polling firm is ran by Belén Barreiro, a sociologist who was the head of the Center of Sociological Investigation (CIS) some years ago, during the Zapatero administration. Barreiro is a very smart woman and I think she's quite good in spotting trends. 

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It's all still in the margin of error, though the decline is obvious in provincial polls as well. C's is confirmed as the flavor of the moment, inb4 they show up first in a national poll.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on April 27, 2015, 11:49:25 am
Vote estimation is in the margin of error, yeah. The key here is the trend different polls with different estimated percentages show. Belén Barreiro told in February, when Podemos was still polling first in the MyWord monthly survey, that Ciudadanos was already damaging Podemos. Barreiro predicted some years ago the surge of a "Radical Party" with some similarities with Podemos and C's. During the launch of a book about Podemos (Asaltar los Cielos by José Ignacio Torreblanca) Barreiro suggested that Podemos is past its prime, because "economy is recovering and people wants to look forward with optimism", remarking that Podemos message is more effective in the short than in the long term. However, she said the effect of new corruption scandals in public opinion is unpredictable and Podemos might find a new strategy to adapt to the situation. Torreblanca thesis is that Podemos is an "assumption of political change" emerged from the economic crisis, in which a part of the population impoverishes and then mobilises against corruption scandals, demanding a return of democracy and a political system that represents common people. Podemos emerged avoiding effectively the traditional concepts of "left" and "right" in political ideology, it's a "pragmatic and abstract concept" with a vague platform that promises solving social injustices and overthrowing elites.

In my opinion, Podemos has been mistaking since the beginning of the year. People demands solutions to the problems and Podemos would have done better in working out proposals, instead of sending out neat slogans. The race is still open, though.

http://www.ecfr.eu/events/event/presentacion_de_asaltar_los_cielos

Disclaimer: Change "Sociological Investigation" by "Sociological Research" in the previous post. False friend :P


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on April 28, 2015, 05:07:13 am
For once, The Economist puts Mariano Rajoy and his heralded recovery in place.

"Spain's recovery: Not doing the job".

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21649660-spanish-unemployment-ticks-up-again-many-workers-are-sinking-poverty-not-doing-job?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/notdoingthejob


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Swedish Austerity Cheese on April 30, 2015, 02:27:29 pm
So could someone with knowledge in Spanish and Spanish politics explain this (!WARNING! this election poster might be deemed inappropriate by prude Americans!) (http://ep01.epimg.net/elpais/imagenes/2006/09/16/actualidad/1158394620_850215_0000000000_sumario_normal.jpg) to me.

I was browsing information about Ciudadanos when I came across it. What does it say? Is it really a real election poster, or a parody? 


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on April 30, 2015, 02:46:16 pm
BREAKING: Podemos secretary general Pablo Iglesias announced this evening that Juan Carlos Monedero resigns from the Citizen's Council (the Podemos political bureau) "after complying his obligation as responsible of the (political) program". Monedero is Co-Founder of Podemos, ideologue and has been a key man in the party in which he will stay as member. Today morning, Monedero complained about the Podemos "mainstream drift":

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/04/30/inenglish/1430403454_148415.html
Quote
(...) “Podemos is falling into these kinds of problems because it no longer has the time to meet with the small circles [the name with which the party refers to local-level supporters], because it is more important to get one minute of TV airtime or to do something that adds to the collective strategy,” the political science professor told an interviewer on internet-based broadcaster Radiocable.

But Monedero stressed that Podemos remains “the most decent [force] in Spanish politics.”

The party’s number-three man said that when a political party’s main goal is to “reach power,” it “joins the electoral game and starts becoming hostage to the worst aspects of the state.”

He called on the 15-month-old party to “go back to its origins,” in reference to its foundational spirit based on the so-called Indignados popular-protest movement.

Pablo Iglesias stated that he doesn't share some of Monedero's thoughts, but said that his friend is an intellectual who needs to "fly free" and Podemos will need his "sting" to galvanise the base. Both Iglesias and the party's number two Ïñigo Errejón thanked Monedero's "extensive job" and hoped to work "side by side" with him for that project for political change which excites "more and more people" every time.

Monedero was pointed by media months ago as a possible candidate for Mayor of Madrid. However, his figure began to decline as a result of his affair with the Treasury (featuring veiled menaces from minister Cristóbal Montoro):

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Earlier this year, Monedero was involved in a scandal for failing to declare income of €425,000 that he allegedly made from advisory work for the governments of Venezuela and other Latin American nations. Eventually he had to pay the Spanish Tax Agency €200,000 in back taxes and fines.

At the time, Monedero described himself as the victim of “a witch-hunt” and aimed his criticism at Finance Minister Cristóbal Montoro, whom he accused of trying to intimidate him with the tax inspection.

He also denied using the money as illegal funding for Podemos.

Juan Carlos Monedero was criticised by some people inside Podemos due to his delay in giving an explanation, and because when he did it wasn't fully satisfactory. However, the same people was indignant because Monedero's alleged wrongdoing was equated by rivals and media to big corruption scandals involving major parties.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on April 30, 2015, 02:47:54 pm
So could someone with knowledge in Spanish and Spanish politics explain this (!WARNING! this election poster might be deemed inappropriate by prude Americans!) (http://ep01.epimg.net/elpais/imagenes/2006/09/16/actualidad/1158394620_850215_0000000000_sumario_normal.jpg) to me.

I was browsing information about Ciudadanos when I came across it. What does it say? Is it really a real election poster, or a parody?  

With my limited Spanish I can tell you what it says, what precisely they are trying to convey is another thing

"Your Party has arrived" (Ha nacido = has been born)

"The only thing which matters to us are people" - Alberto Rivera, C's candidate for the Catalan parliament

"We don't care where you were born
We don't care what language you speak
We don't care what clothes you wear
We care about you"


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on April 30, 2015, 02:53:55 pm
Well, Gully replied already.

It's a real poster from the 2006 campaign in Catalonia. It was the first time C's was running in a regional election and that affiche was an immediate sensation. It was intended to transmite the message of a new born force: clean, transparent and with nothing to hide. C's leader Albert Rivera was a swimming champion and he's undeniably good-looking. Everything counts to sell the product: political marketing.

C's was successful in getting into the Parliament of Catalonia winning 3 seats.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on May 01, 2015, 01:06:33 pm
Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias hopes that the departure of Juan Carlos Monedero won't cost them votes:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/01/inenglish/1430479804_346180.html

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The leader of Podemos, Spain’s self-styled anti-corruption party, trusts that the resignation of one of its co-founders will not affect their chances of success at upcoming local and regional elections.

“We will keep working to win,” said Pablo Iglesias, speaking in Madrid on Friday at a protest that coincided with the May Day holiday (...)

Podemos is facing its first internal crisis with the resignation of Juan Carlos Monedero, who was one of the party’s leaders, on Thursday.

After the announcement, Iglesias sent party followers a letter explaining some of the circumstances of Monedero’s resignation.

“We had been discussing for months the hardship he was going through due to his position in Podemos’ leadership,” he wrote. “Change requires many people playing very different roles, and Juan Carlos and I concluded long ago that he is not a party man, and that his place is where it always was: as a moral and intellectual point of reference for those who dream of a more fair society.”

Before walking out, Monedero accused Podemos of starting to resemble the established parties that it criticizes so much, and called for a return to its origins.

Monedero said that he would rather break free from the party chains.

“I feel like getting my own voice back, rather than remaining a cog in the party’s wheels,” he said.

But despite his disagreement with the direction the party is taking, Monedero said he will stay with Podemos at street level. In a letter published on his blog, he stated that “Pablo is, besides a beautiful part of my biography, the secretary general of the party with which I will keep on fighting (...)

According to El País, several European governments show interest for the policies of the new rising star, that is to say, Albert Rivera and Ciudadanos. Representatives from various embassies requested meetings with party members in order to know their ideology. Employees of the Italian embassy already attended dinners to meet C's members; the newspaper says that diplomats, communication managers and lobbyists took advantage of those events to ask questions. After the presentation of the C's economic platform (drawn by economists Luis Garicano and Manuel Conthe) which cleared the party stances on fiscal and financial issues, questions focused on foreign policy. On economic policy Ciudadanos claims an advocacy for a "Danish model", in opposition to the "Venezuelan model" apparently supported by Podemos. Actually, the policies proposed by C's are similar to those of Denmark on issues like employment flexibility, but without the large employment benefits usual in that country. As well they advocate for a lower tax burden for high incomes: the maximum they are proposing is 40%, opposed to the current 48% in Spain and the 60% into force for Denmark. Also, they propose creating a network of technologic institutes and professional training schools similar to that existing in Germany but, honestly, I don't know if that's viable with the fiscal policy they stand for. One of the C's most controversial stances is their proposal for legalising prostitution. Another controversial stance is that they say giving healthcare benefits for irregular immigrants is "unsustainable".  

Ciudadanos made public few days ago the party position on post-election agreements. Basically, they are open to have conversations with all parties and to dicuss concrete measures. In case they don't win in a region or municipality, in neither case they will join a coalition government which could damage C's chances in the general election. They are open to allow the investiture of minority governments on the basis of negotiating key issues for them, such as anti-corruption measures and electoral reform (among others).

Are you ready for "Naranjito"?

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Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on May 01, 2015, 02:52:19 pm
Orange fever!

Ciudadanos and PSOE are tied in Madrid, according to a Metroscopia poll which will be released in detail tomorrow by El País

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Three-cornered contest between PSOE, C's and Podemos for the second place in the regional election. The Podemos outfit Ahora Madrid places second in the Madrid mayoral race, while PSOE and C's are tied in third place. In all cases, the orange party holds the balance of power.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on May 01, 2015, 03:33:46 pm
Metroscopia seems to typically over poll the insurgent parties (or else the other pollsters understate them) from what I've seen.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on May 02, 2015, 03:52:18 am
Graphs are cool, so there is the Metroscopia poll in detail.

Madrid Regional Assembly: Vote share and seats

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Regional candidates: evaluative balance and level of knowledge.

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Direct voting intention.

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With regard to vote as remembered in 2011, transfers would be:

PP: PP 51.2%, C's 18.3%, PSOE 1.8%, Podemos 1.6%, IU 0.3%, UPyD 0.3%

PSOE: PSOE 37.6%, Podemos 20.3%, C's 5.8%, IU 2%, PP 0.3%

IU: Podemos 47.6%, IU 22.6%, PSOE 10.4%, C's 2.8%

Madrid City Council: Vote share and seats.

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Mayoral candidates: evaluative balance and level of knowledge

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Direct voting intention

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With regard to vote as remembered in 2011, transfers would be:

PP: PP 62.1%, C's 15.7%, PSOE 2.5%, AM 1.5%

PSOE: PSOE 38.6%, AM 29.5%, C's 7.6%, IU 1.5%

IU: AM 56.9%, IU 20.7%, PSOE 8.6%, C's 1.7%

Ahora Madrid= Podemos + Ganemos Madrid + Equo + part of IU Madrid

Metroscopia seems to typically over poll the insurgent parties (or else the other pollsters understate them) from what I've seen.

It can be true either way. MyWord tends over poll insurgent parties even more, I guess it's due to a particular methodology. MyWord polls are online, something unusual in Spain, while Metroscopia resorts to phone calls. In any case, we had a recent regional election in Andalusia and we can compare the deviation between polls and the actual result. As for Metroscopia, they estimated  the following (in brackets, difference with the election result):

PSOE 36.7% (+1.3%), PP 25.1% (-1.7%), Podemos 14.7% (-0.1%), C's 11% (+1.7%), IU 8.5% (+1.6%)

The average polling, that is to say the "poll of polls", almost nailed the result of that election.


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on May 02, 2015, 01:04:31 pm
The Economist again. In the wake of the temporary arrest of Rodrigo Rato two weeks ago, an op-ed raises alarm about the "government cronyism" which "may cripple Spain's economy"

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21650176-research-suggests-government-cronyism-may-cripple-spains-economy-inside-jobs?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/insidejobs

Quote
SPANIARDS are used to former public officials getting rich from doing business with the state. When news emerged of investigations into a former official in Castile and León who had secured lucrative wind-farm licences from his ex-colleagues and a former official in Andalusia whose companies netted regional contracts for state-subsidised worker-training courses, few were surprised. Corruption and cronyism (the distribution of political favours to businesses) explain much of the Spanish public’s growing disdain for the two parties that have run the country for the past 32 years: the ruling Popular Party (PP) and the opposition Socialists (PSOE).

Distrust reached a nadir with the temporary arrest two weeks ago of Rodrigo Rato, a former PP finance minister who went on to run the IMF in Washington. Police searched Mr Rato’s office and home in an investigation into unexplained income. He was already under scrutiny over freewheeling use of company credit cards during his chairmanship of Bankia, a bank that needed a €22 billion ($27 billion) rescue under his stewardship. Mr Rato was seen as one of the architects of Spain’s economic miracle in the early 2000s. That miracle now seems a distant memory. Unemployment is running at 23%, and the IMF says it will take nine years, until 2017, to return the economy to its pre-crisis size.

On a side note, the very serious papers and opinion makers worldwide elevated Mr Rato to the altars consecrating him as the craftsman of the "Spanish Miracle"; international prestige gained in that way could have helped him to become in the IMF head. As it was proven later (real estate bubble), such 'miracle' had a feet of clay. Until recently and still now, many conservative opinion makers say that Rato was the best Minister of Economy that Spain ever had.

The article mentions some research on the effects of the so-called "crony capitalism" in the Spanish economy:

Quote
Researchers are beginning to see links between Spain’s excessively cronyistic and corrupt public administration, and the defects that have made it so hard for the economy to recover. The problems may have started well before the crash. From 1995 to 2007, while the Spanish economy was growing at 3.5% per year, productivity declined by 0.7% per year—even as overall EU productivity was growing at an average of 0.4% per year.

Blame has traditionally been pinned on a housing bubble that fostered distorted growth in the construction industry. But a recent paper by a team headed by Manuel García-Santana of the Université Libre de Bruxelles finds that the productivity fall was spread more evenly across all sectors. It had little to do with skills, innovation or debt. “We found that bad [less productive] companies grew faster than the good ones,” says one of the co-authors, Enrique Moral-Benito. Productivity falls were greater when the government was heavily involved, through contracts, licences or regulations. Luis Garicano, the economics adviser of the liberal Ciudadanos party, says this points to an economy dependent on contacts, corruption and cronyism (...)

In the last sentence you can check that The Economist seems to be turning from the blue to the orange party.

Quote
Popular anger over cronyism helps to explain why the PP government and its prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, seem likely to take a hammering in elections to regional governments and municipalities on May 24th. Over the past year 500,000 jobs have been created and growth is forecast at 2.9% this year, yet the PP has shed half its support. The Socialists are also low in the polls, while Ciudadanos and the left-wing Podemos party have risen. The elections are now a four-way race. A poor result on May 24th could even force Mr Rajoy to bring forward a general election due at the end of the year (...)

Cronyism in public administration and links between corrupt politicians and corrupting businessmen are not the only reasons to explain popular anger. This factor was existing before. The usual factor which political analysts mention to explain why people is angry now at corruption and cronyism is the impoverishment of the middle class, which is the effect of crisis and austerity and is the cause behind the surge of forces like Podemos. However, the continuous succession of scandals has ended creating outrage among the more advantaged sectors. Note that in the present context, what was considered a middle class standard of living years ago can be seen as a high standard nowadays. 


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on May 02, 2015, 03:22:24 pm
Another Madrid poll to compare results with Metroscopia.

Invymark / La Sexta

Madrid Regional Assembly: PP 33.7% (48 seats), PSOE 22.6% (32), Podemos 18,6% (26), C's 16.1% (23), IU 4.1% (-), UPyD 1.4% (-), Others 3.5%

Madrid City Council: PP 36.1% (24 councilors), PSOE 18.5% (12), AM 17.3% (11), C's 15.5% (10), IU 4.3% (-), UPyD 1.9% (-), Others 6.4%

And another for the Catalan elections.

Feedback / La Vanguardia

Parliament of Catalonia: CiU 35-36 seats, ERC 26-27, C's 26, PSC 12-13, CUP 10-11, PP 9, ICV 8, Podemos 6-8.

I didn't found vote percentages, but maybe the newspaper will release them tommorrow. With that seat estimation and given malapportionment, I'd bet that C's is the second party in vote intention. Podemos is surprisingly low, but maybe the next poll released by El Periódico will give different results.

The poll asks about the independence of Catalonia: "Yes" is at 43.7% and "No" at 47.9%; the same pollster said in December that "Yes" was at 47.2% and "No" at 42.9%.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/20150502/54430353735/grafico-el-sondeo-punto-por-punto.html


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on May 05, 2015, 09:23:20 am
Feedback / La Vanguardia

Parliament of Catalonia: CiU 35-36 seats, ERC 26-27, C's 26, PSC 12-13, CUP 10-11, PP 9, ICV 8, Podemos 6-8.

Vote estimation: CiU 22.6%, C's 19.1%, ERC 16.6%, PSC 9.9%, CUP 7.9%, PP 6.6%, ICV-EUiA 6.6%, Podemos 6.3%

More regional polls

Valencia: Sigma Dos / Las Provincias

PP 29.7% (33 seats), PSOE 18.4% (19-22), C's 16.1% (17), Podemos 14.8% (15-16), Compromís 12.2% (12-14), EUPV (IU) 3.6% (-), UPyD 1%, Others 4.2%

Coincidence or not, PP and C's reach 50 seats together in the seat estimation while PSOE + Podemos + Compromís would be at 49. Still an open race.

City of Valencia (33 councilors): PP 29.2% (11 councilors), C's 19.4% (7), PSOE 14.6% (5), Podemos+ Gunayem Valencia 12.2% (4), Compromís 11.6% (4), IU 7.6% (2)

Balearic Islands: Sigma Dos / El Mundo

Seat estimation (Total 59): PP 22-25, PSOE 12-14, Podemos 8-11, Més 6, C's 4-5, Gent (Formentera) 1, IU 0-1.

Only in the best of cases PP (25) and C's (5) would get a majority. Otherwise there are precedents in the islands of "all united against PP" coalitions. In this case: PSOE, Podemos, the "eco-nationalist" MÉS, the Formentera party and IU.

Extremadura: Enquest / El Periódico de Extremadura

PP 41% (29-30 seats), PSOE 30.7% (21-22), Podemos 12.1% (7-8), C's 9.9% (6), IU 4.2% (0-2)

Good news for Monago :P  The weigh of rural population in the region as a whole explains the relatively small impact of insurgent parties (the purple and the orange).

Electograph "poll of polls" for the race in Madrid:

Regional Assembly

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Madrid City Council

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Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on May 06, 2015, 08:44:10 am
After months of uncertainty and fear, an avalanche of noisy information in media and the unannounced surge of a clean-shaved version of PP, Pablo Iglesias is showing signs of leaving defensive tactics and going on the attack:

http://blogs.publico.es/pablo-iglesias/1025/guerra-de-trincheras-y-estrategia-electoral/

And at last, Podemos has a platform to confront the next regional and local elections:

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/Podemos-programa-resumido-claves_0_384612377.html

Other informative focus are:

a) Andalusia: will C's and Podemos abstain in the second vote and allow Susana Díaz to govern?

http://www.infolibre.es/noticias/politica/2015/05/06/cuales_son_las_opciones_susana_diaz_para_gobernar_andalucia_32323_1012.html

b) Valencia: the endless saga of corruption scandals involving regional PP continues. This time the star is provincial boss Alfonso Rus.

http://www.elmundo.es/comunidad-valenciana/2015/05/06/554954bf268e3e93558b457d.html

c) El Diario is publishing a serialized history on PP's past illegal financing, stretching back to Aznar and Hernández Mancha eras.

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/Naseiro-registro-pruebas-Aznar-mandaba_0_384611872.html


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015 (CIS May survey)
Post by: Velasco on May 07, 2015, 09:45:00 am
CIS May survey: General election.

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Sample: 2,479 (face to face). Margin of error: 2%. Fieldwork: April 1-12

Direct vote intention: PSOE 15.4%, Podemos 13.6%, PP 13.5%, C's 10%, IU-ICV 3.1%, ERC 1.5%, CiU 1.4%, UPyD 0.8%, PNV 0.6%

http://ep00.epimg.net/descargables/2015/05/07/201be29fb5a7216abc54a904a3371e11.pdf

PP retains the first place losing 19% with regard the 2011 election. PSOE recovers the second place, trailing conservatives by only 1.3%. Podemos falls to third place and C's raises form 3.1% in Jan to 13.8% in May.

CIS / Regional elections.

Madrid (129 seats): PP 34.7% (48-49), PSOE 20% (27-28), Podemos 17.3% (24), C's 16.3% (22-23), IU 5.4% (7), UPyD 2.5% (-) Sample: 1512

Valencia (99 seats): PP 30.4% (33-35), PSOE 19.9% (22-23), Podemos 16.5% (19), C's 15.3% (16), Compromís 8.1% (7-8), EUPV (IU) 4.3% (-), UPyD 1.5% (-) Sample: 1955

Extremadura (65 seats): PSOE 38.9% (26-28), PP 34.6% (24-26), Podemos 11.6% ( 8 ), C's 6.9% (4), IU 4.1% (0-2), UPyD 0.7% Sample: 1199

Murcia (45 seats): PP 41% (21-22), PSOE 24.9% (11-12), C's 13.8% (6), Podemos 10.4% (6), IU+allies 5% (-), UPyD 1.1% (-) Sample: 1492

Aragon (67 seats): PP 29.7% (23-24), PSOE 22.4% (17), Podemos 14.1% (9), C's 12.9% (8-9), PAR 5.7% (4), IU 5.4% (3), CHA 5% (2) Sample: 1586

PAR= Aragonese Party (centre-right regionalist). CHA= Aragonese Union (centre-left regionalist)

Castilla y León (84 seats): PP 40.9% (43-44), PSOE 22.9% (20-21), C's 11.1% (9), Podemos 10.3% (8-10), IU 3.8% (1), UPL 1.8% (1), UPyD 2% (-) Sample: 2989

UPL= Leonese People's Union

Castilla-La Mancha (33 seats): PSOE 35.1% (13), PP 34.9% (14-15), C's 12% (3-4), Podemos 9,9% (2) Sample: 1961

Asturias (45 seats): PSOE 25.5% (13), Podemos 21.4% (10), PP 19.9% (11), FAC 10.6% (5), C's 10.6% (4), IU 6.7% (2), UPyD 2.2% (-) Sample: 1198

FAC = Foro Asturias. PP splinter, right-wing regionalist.

Canary Islands (60 seats): PP 20.8% (12-14), PSOE 20.4% (15-16), CC 18.9% (17), Podemos 15.8% (10), C's 10.7% (4-5), NC 5.2% (-), Canarias Decide  4.1% (-) Sample: 1723

NC= New Canaries, centre-left regionalist. Canarias Decide= IU +a bunch of small parties.

Cantabria (35 seats): PP 33.2% (13-14), PRC 22.4% (8-9), PSOE 16.3% (6), C's 10.3% (4), Podemos 9.5% (3), IU 3% (-), UPyD 1.6% (-) Sample: 799

PRC= Cantabria regionalist

La Rioja (33 sets): PP 38.7% (15-16), PSOE 22.3% (8-9), C's 13.1% (5), Podemos 11.6% (4), Regionalist 4.6% (-), IU-Equo 4.2% (-), UPyD 1.7% (-)  Sample: 774

Navarre (50 seats): UPN 20.8% (11-12), Podemos 19.9% (11), EH Bildu 12.5% (7), PSOE 11.2% (6), Geroa Bai 10% (5), C's 8.7% (4-5), PP 6.7% (3), IU 5.1% (2) Sample: 789

Balearic Islands (59 seats): PP 30% (19-20), PSOE 22.3% (14-15), Podemos 14.5% (10), C's 12.4% (9), MÉS 9,6% (5), Gent 0.4% (1), PI 2.4% (-), IU 2.1% (-) Sample 1199

MÉS: Més per Mallorca. Catalan nationalist, left-wing, ecologist. PI= Proposta per les Illes, centre-right regionalist. Gent: Formentera party, left leaning

Ceuta (autonomous city, 25 councilors): PP 49.5% (14), PSOE 22.6%% (6), Caballas 11.2% (3), C's 6.8% (2), UPyD 2% (-), IU 1.4% (-)  Sample: 300

Caballas is a left-leaning local party associated with Equo. In the EP elections endorsed the European Spring list (Compromís, Equo, CHA and others)

Melilla (autonomous city, 25 councilors): PP 36.8% (10-11), PSOE 21.2% (6), CpM 14.3% (4), Podemos 9.3% (3), C's 6.8% (1-2), PPL 5.8% (1), UPyD 3% (-), IU 1.4% (-).

CpM (Coalition for Melilla) is a left-leaning local party representing the Muslim community. PPL (Populares en Libertad) is a PP splinter which endorsed the Vox Party in the EP elections.

CIS / Municipal elections.

Madrid (57 councilors): PP 34.5% (22-23), AM 20.8% (13-14), PSOE 18.8% (12), C's 14.9% (9-10), IU 4.2% (-), UPyD 3.2% (-) Sample: 927. AM= Ahora Madrid (Podemos, Ganemos Madrid, Equo, IU Madrid dissidents)

Barcelona ( 41 councilors): BEC 25.9% (11), CiU 18.5% ( 8 ), C's 13.8% (6), PSC 11.6% (5), ERC 10.1% (4), PP 9.1% (4), CUP 7.1% (3) Sample: 993. BEC= Barcelona en Comú (Guanyem, ICV-EUIA, Podemos)

Valencia (33 councilors): PP 35.7% (13), PSOE 15.9% (6), C's 14.4% (5), VEC 13.2% (5), Compromís 10.4% (4), IU 4.5% (-), UPyD 2.1% (-) Sample: 710 VEC= Valencia en Comú (Podemos and allies)

Seville (31 councilors): PP 32.4% (11-12), PSOE 28.5% (10), SSP 13.4% (4-5), C's 12.6% (4), IU 5% (1), UPyD 1% (-) Sample: 997  Initially SSP= Sevilla Si Puede (Podemos and allies). Right now there are two "popular unity" lists that will split the vote: Participa Sevilla and Ganemos Sevilla

Zaragoza (31 councilors): PP 27.3% (10-11), ZEC 21.8% (7-8), PSOE 20% (7), C's 14.4% (5), CHA 7.1% (2), PAR 4.4% (-), UPyD 2% (-) Sample: 741 ZEC= Zaragoza en Común (Podemos, IU and others)

Vitoria-Gasteiz (29 councilors): PP 25.9% ( 8 ), EH Bildu 17.8% (5), PNV 17.7% (5), PSE-PSOE 12.8% (4), Irabazi 11.4% (3), Hemen-Gaude 6.4% (2), C's 3.3% (-) Sample: 499.

Irabazi ("Let's Win")= IU, Equo, Ganemos Gasteiz. Hemen-Gaude ("Here We Are"): Podemos

Santiago de Compostela (27 councilors): PP 33.4% (9-10), PSOE 23.2% (6-7), Compostela Aberta 19.8% (5), BNG 8.6% (2), C's 7.9% (2) Sample: 499

Compostela Aberta: "popular unity candidacy" including AGE (Anova-IU) and Podemos.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/05/07/actualidad/1431002822_141573.html

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/CIS-pronostica-PP-salvaria-Ciudadanos_0_385311795.html


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on May 08, 2015, 06:07:58 am
Analysis of CIS raw data in El Diario by various authors.

http://www.eldiario.es/piedrasdepapel/dice-nuevo-barometro-CIS_6_385721435.html

Some conclusions:

1) PSOE has found an "ally" in C's because the surge of Albert Rivera boys has made political competition more ideologized, as well has blurred polarisation between PP and Podemos. C's has contributed to tarnish Podemos' image, putting the focus on the contradictions in the Pablo Iglesias party and replacing it as the last one to arrive: being the "newest sensation" or the "flavor of the month" is a plus in the present context. Socialists have recovered part of their disenchanted voters from Podemos, while their loses to C's are relatively small.

Vote transfers in PSOE voting base, attending to "vote as remembered in 2011" figure. Data from the CIS May survey (Jan survey in brackets):

PSOE 52.2% (38.7%), Podemos 15.5% (26.1%), C's 4.5% (0.9%), IU 1.5% (1.1%), Undecided/Don't know 18.1% (22%), wouldn't vote 4.5% (6.3%), Others 3.7% (4%)

On the other hand, C's is both a serious rival and a potential ally for PP. The orange party is uncomfortable for PP because it makes difficult for the conservative party to recover disillusioned and angry voters. Additionally, Mariano Rajoy's party has lost the battle among the young and certain urban middle class. C's is feeding primarily by former PP and UPyD voters and "orphan" voters which voted "blank" or "null" in 2011.

Vote transfers in PP's voting base, etcetera:

PP 48.8% (50.3%), C's 17.7% (3.7%), Podemos 4% (7.3%), PSOE 3.3% (4.5%), IU 0.5% (0.7%), UPyD 0.2% (1.7%), Undecided/Don't know 16.7% (17.9%), wouldn't vote 6% (8.7%), Others 2.8% (5%)

2) Ciudadanos and Podemos have some similarities, but the base of their support is different. Podemos has lost some cross-party appeal due to the surge of C's, but their support is still "transversal" stretching from the far-left to the centre-right. Podemos, however, has lost voters in all segments more due to a loss of image (they are no longer the only representatives of the "new poltics") than to ideological reasons (either for being too "moderate" or "too leftist"). C's has reshaped transfers of disillusioned voters from the traditional parties. In the end, C's has damaged Podemos by stealing them the image of "freshness" and "novelty" and not so much because of making Podemos to appear more radical.

Being their formulas for success different, Podemos and C's face different challenges. The main danger for C's is being labelled as a (classic) party in the right. Voters placed them more to the right in May than they made in January: they score now 5.77 (up from 5.14) in a 1-10 ideological scale, where 1 is the extreme far-left and the 10 far-right.

Party appeal on the ideological axis:

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Key: X= position on the ideological scale. Y= average propensity to vote the party.  PP blue, PSOE red, Podemos purple, C's orange.

3) The CIS survey calls into question the narrative in past weeks: Podemos is losing support because former moderate socialists voters switched to C's. Unlike a previous poll conducted by GESOP, the CIS doesn't detect "connecting vessels" of relevance between Podemos and C's, because the latter is not growing at the expense of PSOE (at least not in great numbers). CIS seems to confirm that C's is the "Podemos of the Right".

4) Podemos losses ground in "old middle classes" and "skilled workers" socioeconomic groups. However, Podemos retains support among the "upper and middle-upper class" and "unskilled workers" categories. C's is growing primarily in the "upper and middle-upper class" and the "new middle class" segments.

5) Podemos and C's approach each other in territorial implementation. Podemos has lost more support in small towns than in populous centres, while C's is progressing in small and middle-sized towns.

6) Public perception on the economic situation is more positive, but optimism seems to be associated with a perception that party system is not going to be the same. In short, people has hope in a new time in politics.

7) Gender gap. C's is the most 'masculine' party (62 women for every 100 men), while PSOE is the more 'feminine'. There's a large proportion of women among undecided voters (more than 150 for every 100 men).


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on May 09, 2015, 04:26:51 am
In Barcelona, could you tell me what the main discrepancies between Barcelona en Comú and the CUP are ? I guess the CUP haven't changed their stance about not wanting to support any governing coalition whatsoever ?


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on May 09, 2015, 05:15:26 am
In Barcelona, could you tell me what the main discrepancies between Barcelona en Comú and the CUP are ? I guess the CUP haven't changed their stance about not wanting to support any governing coalition whatsoever ?

Basically it's that Guanyem, ICV and Podemos are not enough pro-independence. Those organisations have supporters of Catalan independence in their ranks (as well people opposed, federalists, etc), but the 'process' is not a priority in the BEC platform. However, in the neighbouring Badalona Podemos and the CUP are running in the same list. Alliances and "popular unity" lists vary in each municipality, in Catalonia and in the rest of Spain. It's a mess.


Title: Re: Spanish regional and local elections (May 24 2015)
Post by: Velasco on May 10, 2015, 06:29:43 am
The campaign started on Friday. Regional and local elections are set on Sunday May 24. In the pic below, C's candidate for Mayor of Barcelona Carina Mejías and national leader Albert Rivera in the campaign's opening act.

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The "centrality of the board"* is at stake for Ciudadanos, says El Diario. The Albert Rivera party has the continuity of several PP regional premiers in its hands. According to the CIS macro survey released this week, premiers Maria Dolores de Cospedal (Castilla-La Mancha), Luisa Fernanda Rudi (Aragon) and Alberto Fabra (Valencia) will depend on the orange party to stay in power. As well candidates Cristina Cifuentes and Esperanza Aguirre, whom seek to be Madrid premier and Mayor of Madrid respectively, will need the acquiescence of Ciudadanos to govern. However, everything points that C's will be extremely cautious, trying to avoid supporting PP governments in a systematic manner. The C's candidate for Mayor of Granada Luis Salvador told to the on-line paper that C's will do what they think is "in the best interest for citizens". Orange people repeat constantly that they are going to change the very nature of governance, but they don't give further details defining what this "new style" means. Calculated ambiguity responds to the wish of not compromising C's chances in the next autumn's general election. If they become in a sort of preferential ally for PP, many people would wonder what's the difference between casting a vote for the blue and the orange party.

A PSOE official thinks that it's impossible to know how far C's will go in maneuvering. They will do what they consider the best for them and not the best for citizens, says the socialist. PSOE resents the delay in the investiture of incumbent premier Susana Díaz in Andalusia, caused by the "lock" imposed by PP, Podemos and C's. Days ago, it seemed that PSOE and C's had reach an agreement and socialists seemed prone to sign the anti-corruption measures proposed by the oranges. Now it's clear that the governance in the most populous Spanish region won't be unlocked until the May 24 elections have passed. PP, on the other hand, tries to counterattack C's mentioning to the inexperience of orange candidates. C's could be more of a problem than a godsend, think people in Rajoy's entourage. Esperanza Aguirre, who despises the Spanish PM even tough she was appointed candidate by him, is making constantly nods to Ciudadanos.

In other news, a Metroscopia poll released yesterday by El País predicts an excellent result forthe orange party in Castilla-La Mancha. Take it with some grains of salt, keeping in mind that the pollster and El País strike as Rivera friendly.

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Pablo Iglesias was yesterday in Barcelona supporting Ada Colau (Barcelona en Comú), the best placed mayoral candidate according to CIS survey. They held a rally in Nou Barris, the poorest of Barcelona's municipal districts, as well a place where thousands of people have been evicted from their homes and a traditional stronghold of the Catalan socialists (PSC). Ada represents "a big deal of hope for Barcelona and the whole country", said the Podemos leader. Iglesias charged against PP, portraying the ruling party as a bunch of thieves and corrupts. "We don't want to be like them, we are not willing to be". Iglesias told the audience that he's a "patriot" and a "sovereignist", but stressing that his concept of patriotism and sovereignty is that hospitals work... as opposed to Rodrigo Rato (PP) and Jordi Pujol (CiU), whose patriotism lies on Swiss bank accounts.  

* The "centrality of the board" is an expression popularized by Ïñigo Errejón (Podemos).


Title: Re: Spanish general election, 2015
Post by: Velasco on May 10, 2015, 05:01:25 pm
Wow, the Metroscopia poll for Aragon is shocking. Perhaps it's not the most reliable pollster (unless election results say otherwise), but it's amongst the most entertaining. Basically, the poll portrays a three-cornered contest between PP, PSOE and Podemos with C's coming in a strong fourth. Regionalists would be nearly annihilated, if the estimation comes close to the result two weeks from now.

 
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Evaluative balance and level of knowledge of the different candidates:

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Podemos candidate Pablo Echenique (born in Rosario, Argentina, in 1978) is one of the most popular figures of the emerging party. He is a scientist employed in the CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) and was elected MEP in the May 2014 elections. Afterwards, Echenique led the faction opposed to the organisational model advocated by Pablo Iglesias in the October founding convention, although neither him nor other critics have challenged or questioned Iglesias' leadership. Interviewed by El País, Pablo Echenique states that Podemos is not competing against C's, because they hunt in different fishing grounds. Echenique doesn't discard alliances with the rest of parties to oust PP from regional government, providing that they are willing to assume "a change of direction" in policies.

GESOP poll for the city of Barcelona:

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Councilors: CiU 10-11, BEC 8-9, PSC 6-7, PP 5-6, C's 5-6, ERC 4-5, CUP 0-2.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 14, 2015, 07:43:42 am
Juan Carlos Monedero warned yesterday in an interview released by El País that "moderation could disarm Podemos":

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/14/inenglish/1431597082_344157.html

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(...)the associate professor of politics says his departure was caused by a growing ideological rift with party leader Pablo Iglesias, whom he sees as drifting to the center of the political spectrum in order to win votes ahead of municipal and regional elections on May 24.

Despite the quote above says, I'm not sure if Monedero's criticism is directed at Pablo Iglesias or rather to other ideological adversaries in Podemos, namely Íñigo Errejón and Carolina Becansa.

Quote
Q. When you left, you said that being in the circles [Podemos’ grassroot-level deliberation structures] was more important than being on television...

A. We realized that television is like the train that the Germans put Lenin in to go to Finland. Dammit, but after that you need to get off the train and meet with people!

Q. Could that happen to Iglesias, to remain caught inside the train?

A. He has an advantage: his thirst for power is very compensated by his thirst for knowledge. That represents a grassroots connection.

Q. You were the party’s radical voice. Now you’re not there any more.

A. I am much more useful outside the leadership, because leaderships are bodies of associated members where plurality tends to disappear. I cannot walk into the executive organ with a book of mine, have them tear off a lot of pages, then have them return it to me with the claim that this is what I wrote.

Q. You are no longer part of the leadership. How will you fit into Podemos?

A. It is a Zapatista premise: every person has to lead by obeying, and that is what Podemos needs to do. It needs to listen to its supporters, because they are the ones in charge. I have the ability to go back to being the agitator that I once was.

Q. You will be an uncomfortable figure.

A. Or maybe not. Maybe it will be uncomfortable for some people within Podemos, but not for Podemos itself.

Q. Do you enjoy making others uncomfortable?

A. Tremendously. In Curso urgente de política para gente decente [or Crash course in politics for decent people] I say that ideas should be like tossing a hornet’s nest into a confessional. Our freshness was the opposite of gutter politics, and if Pablo was able to garner the kind of support he did, it was because he broke the chains.

Q. Could [Podemos] fall into that?

A. I said it in the Ramón Lobo book: we need to be very careful, the fight does not end by making yourself resemble those you are fighting. My idea is for my exit to become a reality check to make our organization think about what we are doing. If we lose this window of opportunity, it will be terrible: we would be betraying a lot of people who believed that we represented change.

According to El Diario, Podemos assumes that the surge of Ciudadanos will alter the balance of power. Podemos keeps the campaign design drawn by Errejón and Bescansa, although introducing slight modifications. Pablo Iglesias will attend 8 campaign acts in the regions where Podemos has best chances: Madrid, Valencia, Aragon and Asturias. Five of them will take place in Madrid, including the close of the campaign. Podemos keeps the "transversal" message that emphasizes the "up and down" dichotomy, the social majority suffering the effects of crisis and austerity as opposed to the minority benefited from PP's policies. Pablo Iglesias has been charging towards Esperanza Aguirre, the PP candidate for Mayor of Madrid, calling her "corrupt" and "shower" with mentions to her aristocratic condition (the "blue blood countess"). Podemos still considers PP as the rival to beat, but now is forced to take C's into account. From the initial disdain Iglesias is beginning to criticise some Albert Rivera's "wisecracks", such as the idea that only persons born in the democratic period can play a protagonic role in the "regeneration" of democracy. For Iglesias, who was coupled by the elder Manuela Carmena (an independent proposed by Podemos as candidate for Mayor of Madrid), Rivera's statement was just "stupid".

Btw, Íñigo Errejón will be attending a campaign act in my town this evening. I'll try to go, since the man is interesting.

As for Ciudadanos, there's an interesting article comparing Albert Rivera and his party with Pavel Nikolayevich Miliukov and the Kadets. According to that, Ciudadanos abuses of tacticism and lacks of a coherent national project and strategy. C's worships ambiguity and runs the risk of running in some regions as a right-wing party and in others as a left-wing party,  says the author. It concludes saying that alliance policies are determinant in politics and in the following months the future of Ciudadanos will be at stake. If C's fails there won't be another opportunity and Rivera will share the fate of hapless Miliukov.

http://blogs.elconfidencial.com/espana/mientras-tanto/2015-05-10/el-error-de-albert-rivera-y-el-fracaso-de-los-kadetes_791488/


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: FredLindq on May 15, 2015, 03:53:26 am
I can see PSOE working with Citudanos and even Podemos. But were PP gets the most seats, might they all work togheter? Or will it be PP and C or even PP and PSOE?  What are your thoughts?!


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 15, 2015, 07:00:12 am
I can see PSOE working with Citudanos and even Podemos. But were PP gets the most seats, might they all work togheter? Or will it be PP and C or even PP and PSOE?  What are your thoughts?!

The problem is that nobody knows. PSOE has stated willingness to cooperate with all parties except PP and EH Bildu; regional branches have leeway to negotiate alliances with the rest of forces. The reason for those exceptions is that alliances with the conservative party would be suicidal for PSOE (Podemos could take advantage of 'Grand Coalitions'), as well any kind of cooperation with the left-wing Basque separatist EH Bildu would damage socialists (PP or C's could blame PSOE for dealing with the "heirs of ETA") in Navarre and the Basque Country municipalities. Thus, PP-PSOE coalitions or agreements seem to be discarded. PSOE would like to cooperate with C's. However the orange party is placing harsh conditions for the investiture of Susana Díaz as regional premier in Andalusia. The regional branch has shown signals of willingness to reach an agreement with Andalusian socialists, but Albert Rivera is the man who has the last word in the party. Nothing will be decided until the 24 May elections have passed and right now the possibility of a new election in Andalusia is open. Also, it's hard to know at this moment if C's will allow PP to govern in Madrid, Valencia and other regions where polls say that possibility is in the hands of the Albert Rivera party. Rivera will take special care in not damaging the image of his party until the general election (both PP and PSOE have bad image, so in neither case C's will join coalition governments with them). The problem for C's is that any course of action will have consequences, either reaching agreements with PP, PSOE or both or not compromising at all. As said in the previous post, there are voices already criticising the Albert Rivera's "ambiguity" and "tacticism".

The relationship between PSOE and Podemos is complicated, to say the least. Both parties are competing for the centre-left sector of the electorate. Also, socialists resent that Podemos people refer them as a part of the establishment ("la casta"), as well they don't like the "arrogance" of Pablo Iglesias and other national leaders. However, PSOE territorial leaders (the "barons") have resigned themselves to the idea that they will need Podemos to govern in some regions. The Podemos regional branches will sell their support at a high price and they are not free of internal tension. After the Andalusian election, some people in the national leadership (the 'possibilistic' faction apparently led by Íñigo Errejón) seemed to be prone to reach an agreement with PSOE and stated that the conditions put by the regional branch led by Teresa Rodríguez, in order to allow socialists to govern, were only "suggestions". Rodríguez protested and Pablo Iglesias rectified the statement made by other member of the national executive. In the region of Madrid things would be somewhat easier, given the good relationship between the candidates of PSOE, Podemos and IU. However, polls deny in most cases the possibility of a left-wing majority and the governability would depend on Ciudadanos. There are regions like Valencia where left-wing coalitions could involve four parties (if they get a majority) and even more in the Balearic Islands. It's not easy to say what is going to happen.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 18, 2015, 04:05:43 am
According to El Diario, there's panic in PP before the "change of cycle". Populares hope to get enough votes to preserve some regional and local bastions, providing that Ciudadanos grants them pardon. An angry José María Aznar claimed on Sunday that Spain and the Popular Party need "historical continuity", while he admonished the bad treatment received by his wife and incumbent Mayor of Madrid, Ana Botella, who has been ignored by her party and by candidate Esperanza Aguirre. Some polls suggest that the race is open in Madrid, Valencia and Barcelona. According to the last Metroscopia poll, Esperanza Aguirre has not victory ensured while challenger Manuela Carmena (Ahora Madrid) seems to be bridging the gap. Carmena met recently with former president of Uruguay José Mújica.

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Another Metroscopia poll for Barcelona places Ada Colau (BComú) ahead in the mayoral race.

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In Catalonia, campaign issues range from a war on flags...

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/15/inenglish/1431676542_954337.html

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Catalan nationalist parties reacted angrily on Thursday after Spain’s Central Electoral Commission issued a resolution ordering all esteladas – the flag symbolizing the region’s bid for independence – removed from “public buildings and polling centers” in order to maintain neutrality during the campaign for local and regional elections on May 24 (...)

... to the xenophobic drive of Catalan PP. Incumbent mayor of Badalona Xavier García Albiol promises to "clean up the city" without saying explicitly what he wants to clean. Sadly, García Albiol is polling quite well (according to GESOP) in that city located north of Barcelona. In the very Barcelona, PP handed out explicitly xenophobic leaflets in the neighbourhood of El Raval, a place with a high share of immigrants and the main exponent of the city's "multiculturalism".

A MyWord poll for Valencia predicts heavy losses for PP, to the point that C's support might not be enough to retain a majority both in the regional parliament and the Valencia Town Hall.

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However, there are polls for every taste. For instance, Sigma Dos predicts better results for PP in Madrid and Valencia, as well places Maria Dolores de Cospedal on the verge of a majority in the Castilla-La Mancha regional election.

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Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on May 18, 2015, 04:25:55 am
Man the PSC and PPC are getting eaten alive in Catalonia. :0 also lmao at Spanish fleggers

Why can't Compromis and Podemos run on a common list?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 18, 2015, 05:41:56 am
Man the PSC and PPC are getting eaten alive in Catalonia. :0 also lmao at Spanish fleggers

Why can't Compromis and Podemos run on a common list?

There are bad prospects for PP and PSC, indeed. However (if we have to trust in a series of polls conducted by GESOP and released by El Periódico) PP resists in Badalona and PSC in several metropolitan municipalities such as l'Hospitalet and Santa Coloma, as well in Lleida and Tarragona (both are provincial capitals). The flegg issue is indeed stupid, keeping in mind that the discussion on the separatist "process" has been calmed down as of late.

Podemos decided to run alone nationwide in the regional elections. There might be a certain incompatibility between Podemos and Compromís, due to the peripheral nationalist component of the latter. The Valencian Nationalist Bloc (BNV) is the major partner in the Compromís coalition, although they are moderate in their nationalism if compared with their separatist Catalan counterparts and candidate Mónica Oltra is not from the BNV ranks. Oltra was formerly in IU and currently leads a small party called Valencian's People Initiative (IdPV), which is associated with Equo (the Spanish greens). There is an obvious proximity between Oltra and Podemos.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on May 18, 2015, 05:52:39 am
Thanks.

It looks like Diaz is in more trouble in Andulacia. None of the other parties are refusing to bite. Reelection likely?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 18, 2015, 08:42:18 am
Uff... that's hard to predict. Right now there's a total deadlock. My impression is that Susana Díaz would prefer to reach a stability agreement with Ciudadanos rather than Podemos. Díaz is more a centrist with a sensibility for social issues than a left-winger. In her investiture speech she made nods with both C's and Podemos and launched some anti-corruption proposals consistent with those of the orange party. However, she didn't yield to the requirement made by C's and Podemos on the immediate withdrawal of former premiers Chaves and Griñán. To be fair, that's not entirely in her hands and both won't continue active in politics once their terms expire. Podemos, on the other hand, complains because Díaz is not prone to reach an agreement on their proposals (not contracting banks that evict people and a reduction of confidence posts in regional administration). Díaz seems to believe that her victory was a mandate for her to govern, while other people think that the result (the worst for PSOE in the historical series) was a mandate to implement changes in the style of governance. I think there's a mix of  of political calculation, a certain arrogance in the contending parties and a political culture based on confrontation instead of pact.  I'd say the unlock is mainly in the hands of Albert Rivera, but we'll see.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 19, 2015, 05:04:29 am
To give an idea on how uncertain is the result of the upcoming elections, the graph below shows the percentage of undecided voters according to the last CIS survey in the 13 regions holding elections, as well in the cities of Madrid and Barcelona:

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Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 19, 2015, 01:53:41 pm
El Mundo today*: " ETA prisoners want Podemos in the government". The subheadline says: "They are just like us, but Spaniards". According to that, prisoners encourage their group of friends to vote for the guy with the ponytail (Pablo Iglesias) and advise EH Bildu abertzales that they must not run in the general election and endorse Podemos. Supposedly, the 'scoop' is based on private conversations recorded at prison.

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The Spanish paper is definitely reaching the level of glorious tabloid papers like the News of the World, The Sun or The National Enquirer ;D

*El Mundo Today is an online satiric paper in Spanish. Highly recommendable (and more serious than El Mundo, it seems)

http://www.elmundotoday.com/


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 19, 2015, 06:17:26 pm
Televised debate in the governmental Tele Madrid between the mayoral candidates running in the Spanish capital. Shame.

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From left to right: Esperanza Aguirre (PP, dressed in orange), Manuela Carmena (Ahora Madrid), Daniel Morcillo (IU's number 5), Antonio Miguel Carmona (PSOE), Begoña Villacís (C's, in orange) and Javier Ortega-Smith (Vox).

Esperanza Aguirre had a face-to-face debate with Manuela Carmena. Consistently with that front page in El Mundo, Aguirre accused Carmena (a retired judge) of releasing members of ETA from prison, among the usual mentions to 'bolivarian' regimes and similar stuff. Carmena, whom never loses her temper, replied that PP candidate lacks of intellectual rigour and states feeling embarrassed because it's a "pity" that Aguirre feels compelled to say such simplistic things. "Everybody knows that I've been fighting for freedom and democracy all my life", said the Ahora Madrid candidate. Among other things, Carmena was judge of the Supreme Court, UN rapporteur, received a national human rights award and was co-founder of a labour law firm which suffered a terrorist attack from the far right in 1977 (Atocha killings).  It's all so sickening that is better leaving at that. One could say that polls placing Carmena side by side with Aguirre in the mayoral race have some plausibility.

Video here:

http://www.eldiario.es/rastreador/Carmena-Aguirre-sorprende-actitud-reconocer_6_389921011.html

After that poll showing Aguirre in a technical tie with Carmena was released, the leader of PP in Madrid stated that "if Podemos wins, it will be the last time Spaniards vote freely".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/18/inenglish/1431957479_408167.html

Quote
“If some Madrileños want to have Podemos in office at Madrid City Hall, that’s up to them,” said Aguirre, whose party has controlled the capital uninterruptedly for the last 24 years. In her opinion, Ahora Madrid goes against her own principles of “freedom, life, private property, the rule of law and pride in being Spanish.”

What’s more, if Podemos were to win at the national level in the general election scheduled for this fall, “that will be the last time we vote freely; after that we will vote, but like they do in Cuba.”


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 20, 2015, 08:20:29 am
Campaign news.

"Clash" in the mayoral debate:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/20/inenglish/1432112700_244670.html

Quote
Carmena, a judge whose face was unfamiliar to voters until her appointment to represent Ahora Madrid, focused her attacks on corruption in the Madrid regional government, which Aguirre headed between 2003 and 2012.

“Our democracy is sick; citizens are estranged from politicians because of corruption, which developed under your government as it turns out,” she said. “You sought out aides who played key roles in the structures of corruption, and they were already involved in it when you picked them out. I don’t understand why you would want to keep governing after all the harm you’ve done. […] It was your government, your team, you are responsible. Really, I’m telling you not to continue, you’ve already done a lot of harm, you must not go on.”

Aguirre, for her part, accused her rival of lacking any specific program – a criticism that has often been leveled against Podemos – and alluded to the party’s alleged ties to authoritarian regimes from Latin America.

“You hug people a lot, you’re very kind, but we haven’t seen your program,” said Aguirre. “Podemos, PSOE and IU [United Left] are running on a single platform: to make sure I don’t get voted into the mayor’s office. And in order to reach that goal, they do what totalitarians do, which is to use lies and disguises.”

The conservative candidate also suggested that Carmena may have sympathies with Basque terrorist group ETA, and said that as a judge she freed a convicted member who “the very next day stated that he did not regret his attacks.”

“What do you plan to do besides being kind, very kind, extremely kind? And why do you say that ETA members have suffered tremendously?” asked Aguirre.

Carmena fought back with the claim that “everyone knows that I have been fighting my whole life for democracy and freedom.”

Socialist candidate for Madrid mayor moots local ID cards for non-residents (Albert Rivera won't like it):

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/20/inenglish/1432115697_622775.html

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During an interview with EL PAÍS on Tuesday, Antonio Miguel Carmona explained that his proposal is similar to one that has already been introduced in the Madrid satellite city of Fuenlabrada, as well as in New York City by Mayor Bill de Blasio.

PM Mariano Rajoy lives in Wonderland: "Who’s talking about bailouts, recession or unemployment?"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/19/inenglish/1432051165_330439.html

Quote
In difficult times, the Popular Party (PP) is a sure bet. That was the gist of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s message at a rally on Tuesday in Pamplona, where he portrayed his conservative group as “the only guarantee for the future” of the Navarre region and Spain as a whole (...)

Young, elder and undecided women are key in the battles for Madrid and Barcelona, says another analysis on CIS survey (in Spanish)

http://www.eldiario.es/piedrasdepapel/Madrid-Barcelona_6_389921005.html

Interesting prediction based on average polling with graphs and stuff in El Español, the new digital vehicle of the  ineffable Pedro J Ramírez (the machiavellian former editor of El Mundo who apparently was sacked because of pressures from La Moncloa).

Madrid: Aguirre or Carmena? Average polling is not as optimistic as the last Metroscopia poll; there's disparity in estimations. Measured: Metroscopia, NC Report, Sigma Dos and MyWord.

PP 34.5% (22 councilors), AM 21.8% (14), PSOE 18.4% (11), C's 16% (10), IU 4.1% (-)

http://www.elespanol.com/actualidad/aguirre-o-carmena-una-prediccion-de-sus-votos-y-sus-alianzas/

Barcelona: Trias or Colau? Mesured: Metroscopia, Sigma Dos, GAD3 and Feedback.

CiU 23.1% (10), BComú 20.2% (9), C's 13.8% (6), PSC 12.1% (5), ERC 11% (5), PP 9.9% (4), CUP 5.6% (2)

http://www.elespanol.com/actualidad/trias-o-colau-una-prediccion-de-sus-votos-y-sus-alianzas/

The delegation of El Periódico in Andorra will release daily trackings for Barcelona conducted by GESOP, now that it's illegal doing so in Spain.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 21, 2015, 05:13:59 am
The 'forbidden' polls from Andorra (this is not a Spanish site, so I guess I'm not breaking the law). Technical tie between Xavier Trias (CiU) and Ada Colau (BComú). PP, PSC and C's are tied in third place, ERC is technically tied with those parties and CUP is on the edge of the 5% threshold.

Barcelona City Hall (41 councilors) GESOP / El Periòdic

CiU 23% (10-11), BComú 21% (9-10), PP 11.9% (5-6), PSC 11.7% (5-6), C's 11.5% (5-6), ERC 10.5% (4-5), CUP 5% (0-2).

Direct vote intention: BComú 20.3%, CiU 18.8%, ERC 10.3%, C's 7.3%, PSC 6%, PP 3.8%, CUP 3%

http://www.elperiodic.ad/noticia/44170/auguris-a-el-periodic



Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 22, 2015, 12:59:28 am
According to El País, Ciudadanos might be more willing to forge agreements with PSOE than PP.  I ignore to what extent the news is wishful thinking, but...

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/21/inenglish/1432199149_328545.html

Quote
Ciudadanos leaders have approached PSOE secretary general Pedro Sánchez because they say they sense a greater desire for the kind of renewal they have in mind, such as introducing primaries where all party members can vote for candidates, rather than the current system where leaders cherry-pick their running mates. So far, the PP has refused the notion of primaries, with one leader calling it “an American thing.”

“You have to keep in mind that we are a markedly progressive party; we feel a lot more affinity with the PSOE [than with the PP],” says Matías Alonso, secretary general for Ciudadanos. “At least apparently, the PSOE is seeking ways to change its discourse and renew itself.”

Pedro Sánchez, for his part, has described Ciudadanos as “the civilized right that it is possible to talk with.”

Albert Rivera denied in an interview in El Diario that he's a man on the right, as well criticised the Podemos' "excessive calculation" that might take its toll to them. People thinking in C's as the "crutch" in which PSOE lies in Andalusia and PP in the rest of Spain is mistaken, said Rivera.

However, PSOE and C's are at odds in Andalusia. According to an influential figure in the surroundings of the orange party:

Quote
“There is an eroded party in government, the PP, and another one, the PSOE, which has renewed itself somewhat but still insufficiently,” says Francesc de Carreras, a professor of constitutional law who does not have an official position within Ciudadanos but has signed its foundational manifesto.

A week ago premier Susana Díaz lost the third vote in the regional parliament, after talks between groups stalled. Podemos C's and IU said that PSOE failed to accept any of their conditions, while the PP says its vote is conditioned by a new inquiry into the reopening of the Aznalcóllar mine (it produced zinc and silver and was owned by Boliden AB, a Swedish company), which created a major environmental disaster in 1998 when a toxic waste reservoir burst around the nature preserve of Doñana National Park.

According to the same news and a statement made by Íñigo Errejón, Podemos expects to negotiate with PSOE after May 24 in order to eject PP from regional and local governments.

On the other hand Esperanza Aguirre and Rita Barberá, the veteran politicians standing as PP mayoral candidates for Madrid and Valencia, are surrounded by contentious issues. Infolibre leaked yesterday Aguirre's tax returns. The leader of PP in Madrid earned a total amount of 374,000 Euros in 2013, 369 thousand from a talent search firm called Seelinger & Conde and the remaining 5 thousand from "games of chance". Her high emoluments shocked people and many point ironically that Aguirre has showed little aptitudes for headhunting while she was Madrid premier, given that her partners Francisco Granados and Ignacio González are involved in corruption scandals and regional PP is rotten by multiple corrupt plots. Aguirre has claimed several times that her income was so meagre that she could hardly pay energy bills. PP candidate for Mayor of Madrid felt outraged by the leakage and filed a complaint with the Prosecutor General's Office alleging violation of the right to privacy; the Treasury is about to open an inquiry. Aguirre was very local in criticising Juan Carlos Monedero (Podemos) when another leakage revealed that he received a certain amount of money in exchange for consultancy works; funnily enough she said her PSOE rival in the mayoral race is "rich", because he gets two salaries (Antonio Miguel Carmona is member of the regional assembly and university professor).

Incumbent Mayoress of Valencia Rita Barberá is involved in several controversies, being the last an allegation made by Compromís accusing her of misuse of public funds to pay her travel expenses (including bodyguards) and attend PP acts. Hotel, travel and restaurant bills, as well gifts defrayed by the Valencia cabinet office, are published in the Compromís site. Tonight Mariano Rajoy attended a rally in support of Valencia regional premier Albert Fabra and Ms Barberá. No mentions to corruption affecting the Valencian PP.

Pablo Iglesias attended a crowded rally in Zaragoza, in support of candidate for Aragón premier Pablo Echenique. Podemos people is enthusiastic: "Pablo is back".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=48&v=8us4tBPKdlU

There's a very detailed map by municipality in El País showing the current share of the local power in Spain. Includes parties placing first and second in the 2011 elections and vote share by municipality for PP, PSOE, IU, UPyD, CiU and PNV.

 http://elpais.com/especiales/2015/elecciones-autonomicas-municipales/graficos/municipios/


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 22, 2015, 02:32:56 am
According to the GESOP tracking, Xavier Trias seems to be consolidating a slight advantage over Ada Colau in Barcelona. In the graph, preferred mayor and direct vote intention.

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Full poll here:

http://www.elperiodic.ad/noticia/44212/trias-consolida-su-ligera-ventaja-sobre-colau


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 24, 2015, 07:38:25 am
Since it's election day, a brief recap of all the Spanish parties today:

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Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 11:21:45 am
Since it's election day, a brief recap of all the Spanish parties today:

Nice. At the end of the day Mr Burns finances all of them, isn't it? Except Podemos people because of the crowdfunding, although they indeed have a Messiah ;D The only thing is the characterisation of C's: Rivera and his followers dress more elegantly than that.

Could you vote by mail? It's not easy with the voto rogado system.

I voted at midday and it was the first time that I had to queue at the polling booth. But not at the ballot box, luckily. There are several census sections in the poling station and mine has few voters -people had to wait at the more crowded box on my right. I had to cast three ballots: regional parliament, councilors and Cabildo.

However, the report from Ministry of Interior said that turnout decreased by 1% nationwide at 14:00 (CET) with regard to 2011 (34.8% to 35.8%). Figures correspond to the municipal elections that are being held in all of Spain.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 01:11:14 pm
Turnout nationwide at 18:00 (CET): 49.78% (49.19% in 2011).

High increases in the cities of Barcelona  (+8%) and San Sebastián (+7%). Turnout is about 3% higher in the cities of Madrid (53.3% / 50.41%) and Valencia, while decreases about 3% in Seville (45.23% / 45.11%).

95% of the 1.8 million of Spaniards living abroad won't vote in this election. Protests have taken place in 40 cities around the world (Amsterdam, Berlin, Boston, Buenos Aires and Copenhagen, among others) against the law that regulates vote abroad (the voto rogado), which puts many administrative obstacles to vote by mail and was passed in 2010 with the support of PSOE, PP, CiU and BNG. Nowadays socialists promise to change it once in power, while PP is against any reform of the system because "it's a guarantee". Fun fact: In the Andalusian election Podemos won the overseas vote; votes cast were a few thousand, though.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on May 24, 2015, 01:29:05 pm
Any English language results pages?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 01:36:16 pm
Exit polls for regional televisions.

City of Madrid (Tele Madrid): AM 33.8% (22-23 councilors), PP 31.9% (19-22), PSOE 15.5% (9-10), C's 10.8% (6-7).

Madrid Regional Assembly: PP 30.8% (43-46 seats), PSOE 33-36 seats, Podemos 22.3% (30-33), C's 12%  (16-18)

Barcelona (TV3): BComú 10-12, CiU 9-11 councilors, PSC 4-5, C's 4-5, ERC 3-4, CUP 3-4

Seville (Canal Sur): PSOE 12-14 councilors, PP 10-12, C's 4, Participa Sevilla (Podemos) 4, IU 2.

Antena 3 says that PP takes the lead in Madrid with 21-23 councilors, followed by Ahora Madrid (17-19), while in Barcelona CiU would get 11-12 councilors and Barcelona en Comú would trail getting 10-11, PSC 5-6, PP 4-5 and ERC 3-4.

According to Antena 3 exit poll, PP would get 27% nationwide (-10%) and PSOE 25% (-2%). Podemos and C's would win seats in every regional parliament.

This is going to be exciting to watch.

Any English language results pages?

I don't know anyone. I'll link the official website once they are reporting official results. Booths are still open in the Canaries.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: DL on May 24, 2015, 01:40:38 pm
Does it actually matter which party has a plurality of seats in a given municipality? isn't it all about who can form a coalition? If PP has the largest number of seats, what happens if PSOE, Podemos and other leftwing parties have a majority?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 01:46:09 pm
Does it actually matter which party has a plurality of seats in a given municipality? isn't it all about who can form a coalition? If PP has the largest number of seats, what happens if PSOE, Podemos and other leftwing parties have a majority?

Yes. In case that no party or coalition of parties get a majority, the party with the largest number of seats gets the mayoralty. If PP gets a plurality of seats in the city of Madrid only a coalition of parties with a majority in the council can elect another mayor. In regional assemblies candidates need a majority to pass the investiture in the first vote.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: RodPresident on May 24, 2015, 02:05:39 pm
Does it actually matter which party has a plurality of seats in a given municipality? isn't it all about who can form a coalition? If PP has the largest number of seats, what happens if PSOE, Podemos and other leftwing parties have a majority?

Yes. In case that no party or coalition of parties get a majority, the party with the largest number of seats gets the mayoralty. If PP gets a plurality of seats in the city of Madrid only a coalition of parties with a majority in the council can elect another mayor. In regional assemblies candidates need a majority to pass the investiture in the first vote.
In 1989, third-placed CDS got Madrid's mayoralty with PP's support.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 02:23:08 pm
You can check regional and municipal results in El País website (as well in other media outlets):

http://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/autonomicas-municipales.html

Provisional results of local elections in the Ministry of Interior:

http://resultadoslocales2015.interior.es/99MU/DMU99999TO_L1.htm



Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 24, 2015, 02:48:23 pm
Does it actually matter which party has a plurality of seats in a given municipality? isn't it all about who can form a coalition? If PP has the largest number of seats, what happens if PSOE, Podemos and other leftwing parties have a majority?

Yes. In case that no party or coalition of parties get a majority, the party with the largest number of seats gets the mayoralty. If PP gets a plurality of seats in the city of Madrid only a coalition of parties with a majority in the council can elect another mayor. In regional assemblies candidates need a majority to pass the investiture in the first vote.
In 1989, third-placed CDS got Madrid's mayoralty with PP's support.

Exactly, PP and PSOE made a deal to govern together, hence having the absolute majority. he condition was that Rodríguez Sahagún had to be the mayor. Btw, this deal was a big reason why CDS collapsed.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 03:05:17 pm
Count in the Basque Country is going quite fast. PNV retains Bilbao (at 91.7%), wins San Sebastían to EH Bildu (which falls to the third place) and PP retains a plurality in Vitoria.

Bilbao (91.7%): PNV 13 councilors, EH Bildu 4, PSE-EE 4, PP 4, Udalberri-Bilbao en Cmún 2, Ganemos 2.

Donostia / San Sebastián (74.2%): PNV 9, PSE-EE 7, EH Bildu 7, PP 2, Irabazi 2

Vitoria / Gasteiz (82%): PP 9, EH Bildu 6, PNV 5, PSE-EE 4, Hemen-Gaude (Podemos) 2, Irabazi (IU-Equo-Ganemos) 1

In Andalusia, PSOE wins Seville to PP while in Málaga the blues retain the first place.

Seville (84.9%): PSOE 12, PP 11, C's 3, Participa Sevilla 3, IU 2

Málaga (81%): PP 13, PSOE 9, Málaga Ahora 4, C's 3, IU 2

By the moment Ada Colau (BComú) is ahead in Barcelona getting 12 councilors with the count approx. at 38.9%. In Madrid the count is at 14.66%. Ahora Madrid is slightly ahead of PP and both lists are tied at 20 councilors.



Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 03:40:55 pm
Madrid (83.9%): PP 21 councilors, AM 19, PSOE 10, C's 7.

Manuela Carmena could be mayor propped up by PSOE but, as the count has progressed, socialists have lost 1 councilor to PP. Still too close to call, because the left has a single seat majority. IU and UPyD are getting 1.8% each.

Barcelona (92.8%): BComú 11 councilors, CiU 10, ERC 5, C's 5, PSC 4, PP 3, CUP 3.

More complicated, but Ada Colau has chances to be the next mayor.

Valencia (79.1%): PP 10 councilors, Compromís 9, C's 6, PSOE 5, Valencia en Comú 3.  IU is out of the council getting 4.7% of the vote (threshold is at 5%).

Compromís is the big surprise and can win the mayoralty with the support of PSOE and the Podemos outfit.

Zaragoza (97.1%): PP 10, Zaragoza en Común (ZGZ) 9, PSOE 6, C's 4, CHA 2.

ZGZ includes Podemos and IU. It can win the mayoralty with the support of PSOE and the regionalist CHA. I've just heard to some political sciencist that the city of Zaragoza is considered a kind of experimental ground to spot urban vote trends.

Regional count is progressing more slowly.

Asturias is already at 70%: PSOE 14 seats, PP 11, Podemos 10, IU 5, C's 3, FAC 2.

PSOE and IU resist, while Foro Asturias fails miserably. Podemos comes in a strong 3rd getting nearly 20% of the vote. It's possible that the good result for IU (12.3%) can be attributed to candidate Gaspar Llamazares.

Navarre is at 62%: UPN 15, Geroa Bai 9, EH Bildu 8, PSOE 7, Podemos 7, PP 2, IU 2

Better than expected for PSOE.



Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 04:14:08 pm
Barcelona at 99.2%

BComú 25.2% (11 councilors), CiU 22.7% (10), C's 11.1% (5), ERC 11% (5), PSC 9.7% (4), PP 8.7% (3), CUP 7.4% (3).

Madrid at 91.6%

PP 34.1% (21 councilors), AM 32.1% (20), PSOE 15.6% (9), C's 11.3% (7)

Valencia at 91.8%

PP 25.8% (10 councilors), Compromís 23.3% (9), C's 15.4% (6), PSOE 14% (5), VEC 9.8% (3), IU 4.7%

Seville at 92.6%

PP 33% (12), PSOE 32.2% (11), C's 9.3% (3), Participa Sevilla 9.1% (3), IU 6% (2)

Zaragoza at 99.6%

PP 26.9% (10), ZGZ 24.6% (9), PSOE 18.6% (6), C's 12.3% (4), CHA 6.8% (2)


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on May 24, 2015, 04:21:24 pm
I know the failure of UpyD has been a long time coming, but these results (especially from Madrid) have to make them pause for thought. Will they even last to the general.

What happened to Bildu?  PODEMOS stole their thunder?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 04:27:34 pm
I know the failure of UpyD has been a long time coming, but these results (especially from Madrid) have to make them pause for thought. Will they even last to the general.

What happened to Bildu?  PODEMOS stole their thunder?

I'm afraid that UPyD is done. I'm not going to try to explain the reasons now. Results will deepen the UPyD crisis.

The lists backed by Podemos are not getting extraordinay results in the Basque Country. I think the loss of Donostia can be attributed to local factors, and it's a big success for PNV (the party recovers a city lost nearly 30 years ago).

By the moment, count progress say that PP can lose the regions of Aragon, Valencia, Balearic Islands, Extremadura and Madrid. It holds Murcia and La Rioja.

EDIT: Rosa Díez is speaking right now. She won't run in the general election. Spokesman Andrés Herzog says that UPyD is still alive.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on May 24, 2015, 04:54:24 pm
wtf is happening in Castilla La Mancha? Did nobody tell them this election is about the downfall of two-party politics?

Also they must have some crazy high threshold, because C's has 8.73% of the vote and no seats.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on May 24, 2015, 05:08:45 pm
Navarre looks like fun. The UPN was last time helped into office by the regional branch of the PSOE, but it will need another ally now. There is a mad four way pile up for second place between Podemos, PSOE Bildu and Geroa Bai.

These El Pais results are really fun to play with btw. I'm trying to find a single result that actually has a majority. All I've found so far is Ceuta, one of the little Spanish enclaves in Morocco.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 05:17:28 pm
Regional elections.

Aragon (at 99.1%)

PP 27.5% (21 seats), PSOE 21.4% (18), Podemos 20.5% (14), PAR 6.9% (6), C's 9.4% (5) CHA 4.6% (2), IU 4.2% (1)

PP possibly ousted by PSOE, Podemos, CHA and IU

Asturias (at 99.3%)

PSOE 26.4% (14 seats), PP 21.6% (11), Podemos 19% (9), IU 11.9% (5), FAC 8.2% (3), C's 7.1% (3)

Balearic Islands (at 99.2%)

PP 28.5% (20), PSOE 18.9% (14), Podemos 14.7% (10), Més per Mallorca 13.8% (6), PI 8% (3), Més per Menorca 1.5% (3), C's 5.9% (2), Gent (Formentera) 0.5% (1), IU 1.7% (-)

PSOE may govern allied with Podemos and the nationalist Més (Mallorca and Menorca).

Canary Islands (at 99.3%)

CC 18.2% (18), PSOE 19.9% (15), PP 18.6% (12), Podemos 14.5% (7), NC 10.2% (5), ASG 0,6% (3), C's 5.9% (-), UNIDOS 3.6% (-), IU+nationalists 2.2% (-)

C's fails to reach the 6% regional threshold and is out, while Casimiro Curbelo (ASG) wins a landslide in La Gomera surpassing the 30% insular threshold. The surrealistic electoral system allows CC to win a plurality of seats being the 3rd party in popular vote. PSOE resists and wins a plurality of votes, Podemos gets in strongly and the New Canaries improves (winning the Gran Canaria Cabildo). PP downfall; they'll become irrelevant. CC is inevitable to form coalitions.

Cantabria (at 98.6%)

PP 32.6% (13), PRC 30% (12), PSOE 14% (5), Podemos 8.8% (3), C's 6.9% (2), IU 2.5% (-)

Possibly PRC and socialists may govern propped up by Podemos.

Castilla-La Mancha (at 99.3%)

PP 37.5% (16), PSOE 36.1% (14), Podemos 9.7% (3), C's 8.6% (-), IU 3.1% (-)

Dolores de Cospedal has lost, despite winning a plurality. PSOE may govern propped up by Podemos.

Castilla y León (at 99.5%)

PP 37.9% (42), PSOE 25.9% (25), Podemos 12.1% (10), C's 10.3% (5), IU 4.1% (1), UPL 1.4% (1), UPyD 1.4% (-)

PP holds getting 1/2 of the seats.

Extremadura (at 99.8%)

PSOE 41.5% (20), PP 37% (28), Podemos 8% (6), C's 4.4% (1), IU 4.3% (-)

Fernández Vara (PSOE) defeats Monago (PP).

La Rioja (at 98%)

PP 38.5% (15), PSOE 26.6% (10), Podemos 11.2% (4), C's 10.5% (4)

Likely PP holds.

Madrid (at 99.96%)

PP 33.1% (48), PSOE 25.4% (37), Podemos 18.6% (27), C's 12.1% (17), IU 4.1% (-), UPyD 2%, Vox 1.2% (-), PACMA 1%

Cristina Cifuentes (PP) may govern propped up by C's.

Murcia (at 98.9%)

PP 37.4% (22), PSOE 24% (13), Podemos 13.1% (6), C's 12.5% (4), IU 4.8% (-), UPyD 1.6% (-)

Likely PP holds; it's one seat short from majority.

Navarre (at 99.3%)

UPN 27.3% (15), Geroa Bai 15.9% (9), EH Bildu 14.3% ( 8 ), Podemos 13.7% (7), PSOE 13.4% (7), PP 3.9% (2), IU 3.7% (2),  C's 2.9% (-)

Possible majority adding Geroa Bai, EH Bildu, Podemos and IU. C's fails to reach the 3% threshold which allows to win seats.

Valencia (at 99.3%)

PP 26.2% (31), PSOE 20.3% (23), Compromís 18.2% (19), C's 12.3% (13), Podemos 11.2% (13), IU 4.3% (-), UPyD 1.1% (-)

PSOE, Compromís and Podemos can oust PP from government. Great result for Mónica Oltra (I'd say she's the moral victor here). Compromís transcends the (limited) regionalist vote in Valencia.

PP gets a majority in the autonomous city of Ceuta and falls short by one seat in Melilla (likely hold).


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on May 24, 2015, 05:18:52 pm
hilarious municipal results in Catalonia.

Podemos's insistence on running in like a billion municipal outfits really makes it complicated to assess how well they did on a national scale lol.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 05:20:13 pm
wtf is happening in Castilla La Mancha? Did nobody tell them this election is about the downfall of two-party politics?

Also they must have some crazy high threshold, because C's has 8.73% of the vote and no seats.

Dolores de Cospedal decided to reduce drastically the number of seats in the regional assembly. That move can be counterproductive for her if she doesn't win the 17th seat. The region must be the most polarised between PP and PSOE, alongside with Extremadura (PSOE wins).

hilarious municipal results in Catalonia.

Podemos's insistence on running in like a billion municipal outfits really makes it complicated to assess how well they did on a national scale lol.

I wouldn't try to calculate that. Madrid and Barcelona have been huge succeses, but results are very heterogeneous through all Spain. Municipal results in Catalonia would deserve more attention. Too many things happening.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on May 24, 2015, 05:27:25 pm
Can someone tell me what has happened in Soria - PSOE have gotten the most votes but PP have by far the most councillors.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 05:35:12 pm
Can someone tell me what has happened in Soria - PSOE have gotten the most votes but PP have by far the most councillors.

In the provincial total PSOE gets more votes but less councilors than PP. However, in the town of Soria (the capital) PSOE has a big lead getting 47% of the vote and a majority of councilors. Maybe PSOE has won in other provincial centres, but PP must have won in most of the small municipalities. The province has a lot of municipalities with less than 1000 votes, a councilor is "cheaper" in those places.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 05:44:06 pm
It seems that PP can lose my hometown.

Las Palmas de Gran Canaria is at 99.7%.

PP 28.7% (10 councilors), PSOE 19.7% (7), Podemos outfit 16.1% (6), C's 7.7% (2), NC 7.5% (2), UxGC 5.6% (2). PSOE+Podemos+NC add 15 out of 29 councilors. Great news.

Cabildo of Gran Canaria (at 99.5%):

NC 26.5% (9 councilors), PP 17.5% (6), PSOE 14.5% (5), Podemos 13.4% (4), UxGC 11.3% (4), CC 5.6% (1), C's 4.3% (-), IU 1.5%

Antonio Morales (NC) will be next president of the Cabildo. It's a good candidate and I voted for him, even though I despise his party. PP downfall while incumbent president (a PP old timer who got angry at Minister of Industry José Manuel Soria) gets into the Cabildo leading the Unidos por Gran Canaria outfit (UxGC).




Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on May 24, 2015, 05:45:12 pm
Can someone tell me what has happened in Soria - PSOE have gotten the most votes but PP have by far the most councillors.

In the provincial total PSOE gets more votes but less councilors than PP. However, in the town of Soria (the capital) PSOE has a big lead getting 47% of the vote and a majority of councilors. Maybe PSOE has won in other provincial centres, but PP must have won in most of the small municipalities. The province has a lot of municipalities with less than 1000 votes, a councilor is "cheaper" in those places.

Right. That's kind of what I thought.

Looking at the local results now - Podemos and their affiliates didn't put a lot of effort in running on councils outside the major centers, did they?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 05:46:48 pm
They could have done better.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 05:59:11 pm
The results in Madrid municipal districts are fun to watch too (available in the official site).

Manuela Carmena gets 49.1% in Centro to Esperanza Aguirre's 26.5%. That district includes the Lavapiés neighbourhood, which is the birth place of Podemos. Esperanza Aguirre gets 52.3% in Salamanca and Carmena 20.8%. In Puente de Vallecas PP comes third (18.1%) behind AM (42.2%) and PSOE (25%).

In Barcelona there are huge differences between districts. Better with maps, I guess.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on May 24, 2015, 06:09:27 pm
The results in Madrid municipal districts are fun to watch too (available in the official site).

Manuela Carmena gets 49.1% in Centro to Esperanza Aguirre's 26.5%. That district includes the Lavapiés neighbourhood, which is the birth place of Podemos. Esperanza Aguirre gets 52.3% in Salamanca and Carmena 20.8%. In Puente de Vallecas PP comes third (18.1%) behind AM (42.2%) and PSOE (25%).

In Barcelona there are huge differences between districts. Better with maps, I guess.

Oh,of course



Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 06:12:32 pm
Fun fact: all 4 seats returned from La Gomera to the Canarian Parliament are 'socialist'. The Casimiro Curbelo outfit (ASG, something like "Gomera Socialist Grouping") wins 3 seats and PSOE the remaining.

Cabildo of La Gomera (100%).

ASG 50.2% (10 councilors), PSOE 15.3% (3), PP 9.2% (1), SSP (Podemos) 9.2% (1), NC 9% (1), CC 6.2% (1)


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 06:28:00 pm
In the region of Madrid things have reversed a bit (PP +1, PSOE -1). With the count at 98% PP wins 48 seats, PSOE 37, Podemos 27 and C's 17. PP+C's 65, PSOE+Podemos 64. Cristina Cifuentes (PP) could hold if C's allows her. Dual vote in the city of Madrid between Manuela Carmena and Ángel Gabilondo. In the regional election PP gets 35% in the capital (more than Aguirre in the local), PSOE 25.7%, Podemos 17.8% and C's 11.3%.

Valencia seems definitely lost for PP, both the city and the region.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 24, 2015, 06:49:56 pm
Galician municipalities.

Marea Atlántica (AGE, Podemos) is ahead by 100 votes of PP in La Coruña winning 10 councilors each, PSOE wins 6 and BNG 1.

Compostela Aberta (same as Marea) is ahead in Santiago winning 11 councilors, PP 10, PSOE 4 and BNG 2.

Socialist landslide in Vigo: PSOE 17 councilors, PP 7 and Marea de Vigo 3.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 25, 2015, 02:15:19 am
The PP loses the absholute majority in CyL, they'll probably govern nonetheless since for the left to govern it'd require PSOE+Podemos+C's+IU+UPL. That being said, the fact that the PP lost the majority in Spain's most rural and conservative region (maybe also La Rioja?) is very telling of the electoral catastrophe of the PP.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 25, 2015, 03:33:59 am
NYT: "Ruling party Loses Hold as Leftists surge in Spain"

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/25/world/europe/ruling-party-loses-hold-as-leftists-surge-in-spain.html?hpw&rref=world&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region&region=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well&_r=1

Wall Street Journal: "Podemos and Ciudadanos Punish Spain's Ruling Popular Party in Regional Elections"

Le Monde: Indignados Surge.

http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2015/05/25/elections-en-espagne-percee-historique-des-indignes_4639655_3214.html

The Guardian: "Spain's indignados could rule Madrid and Barcelona after local election success"

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/25/spains-indignados-ada-colau-elections-mayor-barcelona

La Reppublica: "Electoral earthquake"

http://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2015/05/24/news/elezioni_amministrative_spagna-115170250/?ref=HREA-1

O Globo: The left advances.

http://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/esquerda-avanca-na-espanha-toma-terreno-do-pp-16251279



Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 25, 2015, 03:46:07 am
And Velasco, no I didn't vote, it is far too complicated to vote from abraod these days. You have to register ahead, which means a 2 1/2 hour journey with the right papers to Amsterdam by train (20 euros or so), plus paying a fee and then sending it and provided I get all the stuff. So I didn't bother. I will for the general ones though.

As for tonight, it is pretty much amazing. The results imply that the PP has lost every single majority, including such conservative bastions as Murcia, La Rioja or Castilla y León. Although in all these three, a broad - and potentially unstable - anti-pepero coalitions would have to be created since the party is 1 or 2 seats away from the majority in those three regions. But still it's amazing.

In my home town of Valladolid, de la Riva might lose the government, the PP's support in the real capital of Spain has gone down from 52% to 35%, and a PSOE-IU-Podemos alliance could give the city to the left for the first time since the early 1980s. And while de la Riva is a pretty competent mayor, he is however an asshole, a misogynist and talks too much. In my other home town, Alcalá de Henares, Madrid's third largest city, the PP has lost its absolute majority, and not even the unholy pact with España 2000 will it be able to continue governing like it did in 2011.

Interestingly also in Madrid, in Torrejón de Ardoz, the PP retains its absolute majority with with 52% of the vote, but it is understandable, in 2011 it obtained a 70% majority, and it won a minority for the first time ever in 2007. From what I understand the previous IU-PSOE coalitions that ruled the city from 1979 to 2007 were not just corrupt but incredibly inefficient, useless and incompetent. And even communist friends of mine admit that they wouldn't mind a PP like Torrejon's governing, because they have done a very good job, which explains why that majority has withstood today's electoral tsunami.


Also, if let's there's anti-PP coalitions everywhere (far from certain tho), it would mean that in all CCAA save Galicia, a party other than the PP will govern, this is going to create for the remainder of the year a tremendous conflict between the central government and the regions. Because the PP may have an absolute majority in Congress but if the CCAA are unwilling to implement the laws it will become very hard to govern. Either that or the PP has to accommodate t


The effects of Cospedal's gerrymandering:

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Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 25, 2015, 03:58:56 am
Nanwe, did you know that Esperanza Aguirre and Dolores de Cospedal lacked of a platform until the very end of the campaign? Finally Aguirre drafted a 10 point leaflet: hilarious. This morning Aguirre's campaign has been called "arrogant" and "disastrous", even by conservative analysts like Javier Zarzalejos (a very smart man, on the other hand). Both Aguirre and Cospedal deserved their defeats, as well Rita Barberá and León de la Riva (he's indeed an asshole). Podemos and C's (the latter taking advantage of the gap opened by the former) are relevant national actors now, but they can't say their victory is complete. From now on, they'll have to negotiate and reach compromises. Things are going to be much more interesting. In what regards coalitions or governability agreements, nothing is certain. However, Podemos people said that in neither case they were going to let PP govern if it was depending on them.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 25, 2015, 05:54:01 am
Nanwe, did you know that Esperanza Aguirre and Dolores de Cospedal lacked of a platform until the very end of the campaign? Finally Aguirre drafted a 10 point leaflet: hilarious.

I knew about Aguirre, not Cospedal though. I remember her defence of that was saying that 'no one reads them anyway'. Which may be true, but you cannot pretend to win an election without at least giving the citizens the possibility of knowing what you are going to do, or promising to do at any rate. It is ridiculous.

In any case, what were they going to promise? End corruption? End cuts? Stability, arrogance and continuance were the only things they could offer, and voters wanted none of that, and both were smart enough to know it. So why bother? Especially in Aguirre's case, it was better to run a personalist campaign.

This morning Aguirre's campaign has been called "arrogant" and "disastrous", even by conservative analysts like Javier Zarzalejos (a very smart man, on the other hand).

That's so evident that even the President of FAES had to see it. No programme, gaffes that not even her popularity could fix, and ridiculous attacks on a former judge by being far too over-aggressive on the debates. What a shameful campaign.

Both Aguirre and Cospedal deserved their defeats, as well Rita Barberá and León de la Riva (he's indeed an asshole).

I don't think De la riva deserved to lose on a management level, Valladolid is a fairly well-run city overall, much better than most towns in Madrid, at least from what I see and compare, but from a political level he does, plus 24 years or so governing is too long. The only bright spot is that despite being such a misogynist, he was against the PP's reform of abortion, probably because he's a gynaecologist. Or when he appointed Spain's first city councillor with Down's syndrome two years ago.

All of them deserve their defeat, the only half-likeable PP baron is Feijóo, and he wasn't up to election anyway. Everyone else ran stupid campaigns, while the PSOE tried to hide its name in its campaign and highlighting the personal side of the candidates, which I think will lead to further inner struggle. Although this has reinforced Sánchez' position within the party. I would say.

Podemos and C's (the latter taking advantage of the gap opened by the former) are relevant national actors now, but they can't say their victory is complete. From now on, they'll have to negotiate and reach compromises. Things are going to be much more interesting. In what regards coalitions or governability agreements, nothing is certain. However, Podemos people said that in neither case they were going to let PP govern if it was depending on them.

Indeed, and we'll see if they don't crush and burn because of getting into the meddlesome and dirty world of practical politics in parliament. The CAM is particularly interesting, either a PP minority with support from C's through abstaining or a left-wing shaky government backed up by C's too. And in the meantime, if the former happens, then there'd be a left-wing mayor in Madrid (50-60% of CAM's pop.) to a right-wing (even if a fairly moderate one like Cifuentes) government in Puerta del Sol.

This article is fairly interesting (in Spanish): El resultado abre una brecha generacional en el PP de Raoy (http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/05/25/actualidad/1432543945_854180.html)


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 25, 2015, 06:32:35 am
Europa Press just released some fancy graphics, which I think are quite informative:

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Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 25, 2015, 10:11:20 am
Nice graphs. I'll take a look at the PP generation's gap thing ;)

Five urgent measures that Manuela Carmena will implement within the first hundred of days of her government, providing that she becomes mayor with the help of PSOE:

1) Provide the means and municipal resources necessary to stop first home evictions and guarantee alternative housing.

2) Stop the privatisation of public utilities, the outsource of municipal services to big businesses and the sale of public heritage.

3) Guaranteeing basic supplies such as water and energy to all households that can't afford them.

4) Guaranteeing access to municipal health protection, as well to health promotion and prevention actions to all people, regardless of their administrative status (irregulars, for instance)

5) Urgent job placement scheme to young people and long-time unemployed.

Barcelona en Comú has an emergency plan, too. I have no time to translate now.

http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2015/05/25/madrid/1432556977_450859.html

Interactive map of results by municipality:

http://elpais.com/especiales/2015/elecciones-autonomicas-municipales/graficos/municipios/


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Boston Bread on May 25, 2015, 10:55:43 am
The C's are getting in on the #orangeisthenewblue hashtag, lifted from Alberta.

https://twitter.com/EGigamesh/status/601011071432929281

Is it a good idea for C's to partner up so willingly with PP? My knowledge is that C's supporters are anti-establishment and centrist so are their supporters going to accept them being in a position similar to Lib Dem in the UK? Why can't a PSOE-C coalition be considered? I thought PP was further from the centre than PSOE (which shouldn't be scary at all to centrists) so that would be the natural to way to defeat incumbent PPs while preventing Podemos (which might scare centrists) from taking power.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: FredLindq on May 25, 2015, 01:28:32 pm
What will th army do now?!


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on May 25, 2015, 01:43:37 pm
Gosh the Balearics are a mess. What an earth is going on there?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 25, 2015, 04:14:50 pm
Gosh the Balearics are a mess. What an earth is going on there?

Some of the parties are Balearic regionalists, others are island-specific. It's pretty weird. Plus Catalan nationalists coexist with Podemos outfit and IU.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 25, 2015, 05:57:13 pm
The C's are getting in on the #orangeisthenewblue hashtag, lifted from Alberta.

https://twitter.com/EGigamesh/status/601011071432929281

Is it a good idea for C's to partner up so willingly with PP? My knowledge is that C's supporters are anti-establishment and centrist so are their supporters going to accept them being in a position similar to Lib Dem in the UK? Why can't a PSOE-C coalition be considered? I thought PP was further from the centre than PSOE (which shouldn't be scary at all to centrists) so that would be the natural to way to defeat incumbent PPs while preventing Podemos (which might scare centrists) from taking power.

C's doesn't want to create the impression of being a sort of preferential ally for PP and Albert Rivera states that he's open to speak with PP, PSOE and even Podemos. The point is that C's is the only possible ally for PP. In the 4 regions where the orange party holds the balance of power there are very little chances for governments alternative to PP (cases of Murcia, Castilla y León and La Rioja), except in the region of Madrid (C's can support a PP minority government or abstain allowing a PSOE-Podemos administration). C's is not going to join any type of coalition, in any case they could give confidence and supply under certain conditions. PSOE and C's are not so far from each other and they may or may not cooperate in some places, including the unlock of the investiture of socialist premier Susana Díaz in Andalusia. However, PSOE needs Podemos in regions like Valencia, Castilla-La Mancha, the Balearic Islands, etc. C's is closer to PP on economic policies and issues like immigration and healthcare benefits. The bulk of C's support comes from PP and UPyD. C's voters are "reformist" rather than "anti-establishment" and a majority is placed on the centre and the centre-right side of the spectrum. According to an analysis of the CIS April survey that I translated in a previous post, the main risk for C's would be being associated unequivocally with the mainstream right, so Albert Rivera will be careful because he's not stupid. C's and PSOE share "liberal" stances on some social issues. Also, as a news posted before says, C's considers that PSOE has taken little but insufficient steps toward "regeneration" while Mariano Rajoy's PP is in total stasis. Rajoy is the main problem for PP right now.

Gosh the Balearics are a mess. What an earth is going on there?

Some of the parties are Balearic regionalists, others are island-specific. It's pretty weird. Plus Catalan nationalists coexist with Podemos outfit and IU.

I think the graph is wrong in what regards possible alliances in the Balearic Islands. The second option looks like unworkable: I can hardly see Podemos and PI (many of their members come from PP) together. Otherwise graphs are very informative. Summary of Balearic parties:

MÉS (Més per Mallorca): Majorcan coalition including PSM-Entesa* (Majorca nationalists), Iniciativa Verds (IU splinter associated with Equo) and ERC. It's placed on the left ranging from ecosocialism to Catalan separatism.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%A9s_per_Mallorca

MpM (Més per Menorca): Coalition similar to MÉS that operates in Menorca island.

*PSM-Entesa: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PSM-Nationalist_Agreement

PI (Proposta per les Illes): Centre-right regionalist party formed by the merger of smaller parties. It's ""socially and politically a big tent, balearista political formation with a tendency to centrism". It's stronger in Majorca island.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposta_per_les_Illes

GxF+PSIB: GxF is Gent per Formentera (People for Formentera), a left leaning party from that island not so different from the Més coalitions in Majorca and Menorca. PSIB is the name of the regional branch of PSOE.

MÉS got 17.1% in Majorca, MpM 17.5% in Menorca and Gent per Eivissa (GxE) 3.85% in Ibiza. PI got 8.8% in Majorca, 3.2% in Menorca and 5.7% in Ibiza.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on May 25, 2015, 06:02:01 pm
For now, C's course reminds me awfully of Modem 2007. It didn't go well...


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 25, 2015, 06:21:27 pm
We'll see how it ends. Given the course of PP, there was a huge gap on the centre-right of the spectrum and Albert Rivera was passing by ;)

Now that I remember, the Majorcan Union (Unió Mallorquina, a precedent of the PI) joined in 2007 a coalition government with PSOE and Balearic nationalists. The UM was led by an interesting woman called Maria Antònia Munar, who quitted politics in 2010 because she and her party were involved in several corruption scandals. Munar was sentenced to five years in prison. UM wrecked* in the 2011 elections after having being the party which held the balance of power in the region for a couple of decades, supporting alternatively PP and PSOE.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Majorcan_Union

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_Ant%C3%B2nia_Munar

*EDIT: Actually, UM was declared officially dead and its reminders conformed a new party called Convergence for the Isles (Convergència per les Illes, CxI), which ran in the 2011 and later merged with other regionalist outfits in Proposal for the Isles (Proposta per les Illes), in November 2012.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 25, 2015, 06:34:46 pm
Is it fair to say that Ciudadanos are afraid of any partnership with PP also because of what happened with the Lib-Dems in the UK?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 25, 2015, 06:51:32 pm
Possibly they have noted what happened with the LibDems. The discredit of PP due to corruption scandals is another factor, in all likelihood much more important. In that regard, there's not an analogous situation in the UK.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on May 26, 2015, 04:47:13 am
I note that Podemos now has entered every metropolitan regional council up for election, plus Canarias. Catalonia should follow in September. I guess only Ceuta and Melilla stand out in that regard. I don't know when Galicia is supposed to vote ? 2016 ?

Podemos is the only party present everywhere apart from PP and PSOE. Even C's failed to enter in a few places.

What are your thoughts on the incoming coalition talks that are going to take place in quite a number of cities and autonomies ? Can PSOE swallow propping up Podemos, or at least their various outfits, in the places where they won leadership of the left ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: RodPresident on May 26, 2015, 05:36:42 am
Possibly they have noted what happened with the LibDems. The discredit of PP due to corruption scandals is another factor, in all likelihood much more important. In that regard, there's not an analogous situation in the UK.
Navarra Podemos alliance with Bildu and Geroa Bai can provide a narrative legitimizing Ciudadanos' alliance with PP.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Jewephilzz1 on May 26, 2015, 06:25:41 am
The rise of anti-austerity parties will bring uncertainty not only to Spain, but also across Europe.  



Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on May 26, 2015, 06:39:24 am
The rise of anti-austerity parties will bring uncertainty not only to Spain, but also across Europe. 


Welcome to the forum, Captain Obvious ! You have been missed !

(Seriously though, welcome :))


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on May 26, 2015, 06:50:03 am
Another observation : some time ago, it was said that Córdoba was the largest European city ruled by a communist-led left-wing coalition. I don't really know who got that title when IU lost the city in 2011, maybe Riga, still in Western Europe I don't know. Could we say, if PSOE props up Ahora Madrid like we can expect them to, that Madrid now owns that title ? Even if Ahora Madrid is a broad coalition of parties and citizens, it's still impulsed by Podemos and IU types.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 26, 2015, 06:55:31 am
I note that Podemos now has entered every metropolitan regional council up for election, plus Canarias. Catalonia should follow in September. I guess only Ceuta and Melilla stand out in that regard. I don't know when Galicia is supposed to vote ? 2016 ?

Podemos is the only party present everywhere apart from PP and PSOE. Even C's failed to enter in a few places.

What are your thoughts on the incoming coalition talks that are going to take place in quite a number of cities and autonomies ? Can PSOE swallow propping up Podemos, or at least their various outfits, in the places where they won leadership of the left ?

Yes, Galicia and Basque country will hold elections next year. Podemos got into every regional parliament. C's failed to win seats in Castilla-La Mancha and the Canaries due to the shenanigans of their respective electoral systems. As for upcoming talks, both Podemos and C's are setting conditions to pact.

Podemos demands: 1) Zero tolerance with regard to corruption and 2) a 180 degree spin on cut policies. According to El País, Podemos makes ousting PP its priority in brokering deals:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/26/inenglish/1432632968_118593.html

Quote
In the wake of the May 24 local and regional elections, which saw the Popular Party (PP) lose many of its absolute majorities, anti-austerity party Podemos has made it a priority to eject the conservatives from power wherever it can (...)

C's has set 10 conditions to pact. In the aftermath of the Sunday's election they warned PP: "no primaries, no support".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/25/inenglish/1432568221_353231.html

Quote
But on Monday morning, Ciudadanos leader Albert Rivera reiterated the emerging force’s non-negotiable condition for any agreement: the introduction of party primaries as a gesture of democratic regeneration.

“That condition is going to be on the table,” said Rivera, whose party has successfully made the jump from Catalan politics to the national arena this year (...)

As for Madrid, Manuela Carmena phoned PSOE candidate Antonio Miguel Carmona. The path toward an agreement between Ahora Madrid and PSOE seems clear and Carmena will be likely the next Mayoress of Madrid.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/25/inenglish/1432568422_087962.html

In Barcelona, pacts are more complicated due to the composition of the council and the lack of clear majorities. In any case, Ada Colau will govern the capital of Catalonia in minority. On election night, incumbent mayor Xavier Trias (CiU) conceded defeat and renounced to form alternative alliances. Colau already has a plan: new utility firm taxes and end to official cars:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/25/inenglish/1432563972_012218.html

Quote
“Ambitious” but “doable.” That is how Barcelona en Comú (BComú), the leftist coalition that won municipal elections in Barcelona on Sunday, has defined its own “Action plan for the first months in government,” a document the group made public even before completing its campaign platform (...)

Navarra Podemos alliance with Bildu and Geroa Bai can provide a narrative legitimizing Ciudadanos' alliance with PP.

In any case, an alliance with Bildu will provide reasons to attack Podemos from Madrid media, PP and C's.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 26, 2015, 07:00:09 am
Another observation : some time ago, it was said that Córdoba was the largest European city ruled by a communist-led left-wing coalition. I don't really know who got that title when IU lost the city in 2011, maybe Riga, still in Western Europe I don't know. Could we say, if PSOE props up Ahora Madrid like we can expect them to, that Madrid now owns that title ? Even if Ahora Madrid is a broad coalition of parties and citizens, it's still impulsed by Podemos and IU types.

No, Ahora Madrid is left-wing, but it's not a communist-led coalition. Manuela Carmena is an indepedent backed by Podemos. She's fairly moderate in attitude and opinions and a free rider (personally, I adore her). There is people coming from the purple party, IU dissidents, Equo and several social movements. In any case it's a coalition of the "new left".


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 26, 2015, 07:03:54 am
Madrid local election: results by district. Leading parties (right) and vote share by district for every party winning seats in the Madrid City Hall (left).

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Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on May 26, 2015, 09:13:01 am
This is all very fun. I have a few questions though:

What are C's opinions towards non-separatist regionalists and nationalists (CC, PAR, PRC) or are they still opposed to further devolution?

why did Cascos resign in Asturias? Is FAC now dead without him?

Why is Navarre so hideously fragmented?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 26, 2015, 01:50:47 pm
This is all very fun. I have a few questions though:

What are C's opinions towards non-separatist regionalists and nationalists (CC, PAR, PRC) or are they still opposed to further devolution?

I guess that since all these three parties are relatively centrist and 'pragmatic' (as in give power and money and I'll support you), I guess they'll apply the same conditions they told the PP to follow regarding internal accountability and some such. But they haven't made a fuss about it in general. I guess Velasco may have looked into the particular policies of C's in Cantabria, Aragón and the Canary Islands, but I cannot say much more.

Quote
Is FAC now dead without him?

Most likely, as you can see from their very diminished electoral results.

Quote
Why is Navarre so hideously fragmented?

Well there's the Basque-speaking and the Spanish-speaking divide in the region and within each, there are right-wing and left-wing forces. So for instance in the Basque-speaking community, G-Bai, the PNV's brand of sorts in Navarra, they could be the right (even if they are vaguely centre-left) while Bildu is obviously the left. Then for the Spanish part, UPN used to be in a coalition with the PP, but it broke down so now both run against each other to obtain the right-wing vote of the Spanish speakers. And then there's the PSOE. The 'radical' left of Podemos and of IU tend to cross the linguistic border from what I understand.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 26, 2015, 04:41:16 pm
I guess Velasco may have looked into the particular policies of C's in Cantabria, Aragón and the Canary Islands, but I cannot say much more.

Not really. Given that C's failed to get into the Canarian Parliament by not surpassing the 6% regional threshold (they got 5.93%), they'll have little to say down here. C's seems more 'flexible' and 'pragmatic' than UPyD in what regards dealing with the various centre-right regionalist parties. Also, the orange party has recruited members of several local outfits in the effort to expand territorial implementation, including the candidate in the Andalusian election. I have researched too little on that. There were cases that I found more strange, like certain former Falangista who was running in the local list of certain small municipality in Madrid. Rivera says that he doesn't believe in the "red and blue" divide, but that's something more serious than recruiting local politicians or former PP, PSOE or UPyD members. I mean, that's the kind of things that can ruin the C's claim that they are a "progressive" force. 

In the news, Aguirre seeks pacts to keep Podemos out of the City Hall:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/26/inenglish/1432662540_821073.html

Quote
“I would like to announce that I will never be an obstacle to reaching agreements [on a coalition],” she told reporters. “I wanted to return to politics to stop Podemos, and if I am the problem, there is no problem,” she said, implying she would step aside if that would stop Ahora Madrid from taking power in City Hall.
 

Aguirre is even willing to 'sacrifice' herself offering the post of Mayor to the socialist candidate, but Antonio Miguel Carmona rejected her offer. I've just heard him and he said that in neither case he's going to follow the example of Agustín Rodríguez Sahagún (that case was already mentioned in this thread). The PSOE candidate said that he would favour "the more progressive option" and confirmed that he talked with Manuela Carmena, but they haven't decided anything. His platform, that is really a neat work (more than 200 proposals), will be his pillar for negotiations.

According to El País, PP veterans would be planning to make way for new faces in the party:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/26/inenglish/1432658688_365684.html

Quote
One PP veteran, Juan Vicente Herrera, who has been the regional premier of Castilla y León for the last 11 years, confessed on the radio network Onda Cero that he is considering resigning, and suggested that Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy should do the same (...)

Tomorrow I'll post the map of Barcelona.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 27, 2015, 05:33:02 am
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Provisional results in Barcelona:

Barcelona en Comú-Entesa (BComú) 25.21% (+14,82%) 11 (+6)* councilors

Convergència i Unió (CiU) 22.72% (-6,01%) 10 (-4) councilors

Ciutadans (C’s) 11.05% (+9.11%)  5 (+5) councilors

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya– Moviment D’Esquerres (ERC–MES) 11.01% (+5,42%)  5 (+3) councilors

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) 9,63% (-12.51%) 4 (-7) councilors

Partit Popular (PP) 8.7% (-8,54%)  3 (-6) councilors

Candidatura D’Unitat Popular (CUP) 7,42% (+5.47%)  3 (+3) councilors

BComú wins 6 seats with regard to ICV-EUiA in 2011. In the previous election ERC ran in a list called Unitat per Barcelona allied with SI and Reagrupament, two small separatist parties. Moviment D'Esquerres (MES) is a PSC sovereignist split allied with ERC in this election.

*With regard to ICV-EUiA-Entesa in 2011. Entesa is a trademark registered by ICV and includes BComú and other "popular unity lists" where the Catalan ecosocialists ran. However, "popular unity lists" like Badalona en Comú (assembles Podemos, Procés Constituent and the CUP, but not ICV) are not included in the Entesa banner.

Results in Badalona:

PP 34.21% (+0.73%) 10 (-1) councilors

Badalona en Comú 17.51% (new) 5 (+5) councilors

PSC 14.09% (-12.96%) 4 (-5) councilors

ERC 10.98% (+7.28%) 3 (+3) councilors

CiU 7.94% (-4.61%) 2 (-2) councilors

ICV-EUiA-Entesa 6.68% (-2.22%) 2 (-1) councilors

Ciutadans 5.6% (+4.43%) 1 (+1) councilor

Results of the local elections in Catalonia:

CiU 21.49% (-5.63%), PSC 17.06% (-8.07%), ERC 16.39% (+7.41%), ENTESA* 11.78% (+3.35%), PP 7.54% (-5.14%), C's 7.43% (+6.21%), CUP 7.12% (+4.95%)

Despite the disastrous result in Barcelona, PSC was the second party in votes and retains with losses the provincial capitals of Tarragona and Lleida, as well many of the socialist strongholds in the Barcelona metropolitan region (l'Hospitalet, Cornellá, Santa Coloma, Terrassa). PP came first in Badalona, although Xavier García Albiol could be ousted by a coalition of opposition parties (in case they come to an agreement). CiU retains Girona.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 27, 2015, 06:07:58 am
Mucho has tardado ;)


Anyway, I decided to take a look at the Balearic Islands' political scenario:

So, looking into the minor parties (let's ignore self-evident ones like PSOE, PP, C's or Podemos)

Més per Mallorca: Union of left-wing nationalist forces, associated to political Catalanism, including a former faction of IU in the Islands that split from the main party. It's a coalition of Partit Socialista de Mallorca, Entesa per Mallorca, Iniciativa Verds and Bloc per Felanitx.

Proposta per les Illes (PI): Centre-right regionalist party, founded by former PP and UM (former regionalist centre-to-centre-right party, extremely corrupt) members.

MpM: Similar to Més per Mallorca, but for Minorca.

GxF: Similar to Més and MpM but for Formentera.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on May 27, 2015, 06:48:05 am
Huh,didn't think that Gracia would go to CiU.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 27, 2015, 09:19:25 am
Gràcia is the most Catalanist of the Barcelona districts. Even though Vila de Gràcia is traditionally left-leaning (ICV used to poll strongly, ERC as of late), there are neighbourhoods that tend to favour CiU a bit more. In times Gràcia was a popular district, but nowadays its neighbourhoods are middle class (see income map). I suspect there has been certain gentrification in certain areas (should look into that). CiU beats BComú by a slight margin, ERC and the CUP get their best results in the city, while PSC and PP among their worst. Results in Gràcia district were as follows:

CiU 26.64% (-5.87%), BComú 23.89% (+10.83%), ERC 14.17% (+6.48%), CUP 11.67% (+7.91%), C's 7.57% (+6.19%), PSC 6.47% (-10.29%), PP 6.08% (-5.72%)

Traditionally the CiU and PSC vote in Barcelona followed reverse socioeconomic patterns. The richer the neighbourhood, the higher support for CiU and vice versa. Now things are much more complicated*, but still the best districts and neighbourhoods for CiU are the ones with the higher income (Sarrià-Sant Gervasi, Les Corts), while PSC does better in deprived areas which received immigration from other Spanish regions in past decades (Nou Barris, among others). The bad news for socialists is that they have lost the catalanista middle class and that their traditional base of support in the poorer city neighbourhoods switched to BComú and other parties to a lesser extent. Note that PP and C's patterns by district are very similar (higher support in the socio-economic extremes) and opposed to ERC and CUP patterns. BComú and PSC patterns are similar to each other, with the caveat that Ciutat Vella is the best district for BComú and Nou Barris the best for PSC.

Family income by neighbourhood in 2012 (100= Barcelona average):

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*According to historian Joaquim Coll, election results show three dividing lines in Catalonia: territorial, linguistic and socioeconomic. On the one hand, there's a gap between the metropolitan/coastal Catalonia (more abstentionist and less supportive of nationalism) and the inland Catalonia (overwhelmingly nationalist). In the November 9 consultation on independence, inland counties (comarcas) turned out in greater numbers (48% of the roll) and voted massively for the purely separatist option ("yes-yes"), while in metropolitan/coastal counties turnout was only 27% and the "yes-yes" figures lower. As for the linguistic factor, it's correlated with sense of belonging. People who has Spanish as first language prevail in the metropolitan and coastal areas and use to identify themselves equally Spanish and Catalan: they are more loath to independence. People speaking Catalan as first language identify themselves as "more Catalan than Spanish" or "only Catalan": a majority of them support independence. Coll says that "language and origin are key to understand that we are confronted to an identity drive which tries to scale the wall of the plural senses of belonging, invoking a promise of social welfare with a leftist garment (...) by the moment with little success among the Catalans whom mainly speak Spanish and with origins in other parts of Spain" . On the socioeconomic factor, Coll talks about "the true alliance of classes behind the separatist drive in the context of the crisis that we are suffering". Remarks the contrast between two metropolitan municipalities nearby in space but far in socioeconomic composition: Santa Coloma and Sant Cugat del Vallès. Santa Coloma is a low income municipality north of Barcelona (pop 118,000) where PSC won a majority and both CiU and ERC failed to win councilors. Sant Cugat (pop 87,000) is amongst the richest Catalan municipalities. It's separated from Barcelona by the Tibidabo mountain. In Sant Cugat CiU won comfortably and the CUP came second, C's came third while PSC and PP got poor results.
 
"The Truncated Catalonia of Artur Mas" (Catalan)

http://cat.elpais.com/cat/2015/05/20/opinion/1432135472_321275.html

To make things even more complicated, it can be added to that triple divide the surge of BComú in Barcelona (and to a lesser extent the surge of similar lists in other municipalities). The list topped by Ada Colau has made significant inroads in the Barcelona's catalanista electorate, although its main base of support is in the lower income neighbourhoods. The separatist CUP has made inroads in some working-class metro Barcelona municipalities as well.

Results in Santa Coloma de Gramenet:

PSC 40.68% (14 councilors), Som Gramenet (Podemos, CUP) 18.52% (6), C's 11.5% (3), ICV-EUiA-Entesa 7.85% (2), PP 7.77% (2), ERC 4.76% (-), CiU 3.63% (-)

Results in Sant Cugat del Vallès:

CiU 36.97% (11 councilors), CUP 15.2% (4), C's 12.92% (3), ERC-MES 11.21% (3), ICV-EUiA-Entesa 6.61% (2), PSC 6.47% (1), PP 6.27% (1)

In the Sarrià-Sant Gervasi district (on the Barcelona's side of the Tibidabo) CiU topped the poll (41.49%), C's got its best result coming second (15.48%). In past elections PP used to come second behind CiU; this election came in third (12.39%). BComú got 10.5% and PSC only 4.4%.

In principle, there is an election in Catalonia scheduled on September 27. The defeat of Xavier Trias in Barcelona has been perceived as a setback in the "process" by premier Artur Mas.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Kushahontas on May 27, 2015, 09:48:32 am
Huh,didn't think that Gracia would go to CiU.

was just about to say...


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 27, 2015, 03:26:21 pm
Yolanda Barcina, incumbent premier of Navarre: "The outcome of elections could see Spain resemble pre-Hitler Germany"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/27/inenglish/1432734863_029580.html

Quote
The regional premier of Navarre, Yolanda Barcina, said on Wednesday that the outcome of Sunday’s municipal and regional elections in Spain could derive into a situation similar to pre-Hitler Germany, today’s Venezuela or Argentina under Perón.

In a television interview on the morning show ‘Los Desayunos de TVE,’ Barcina – who is also the leader of Union of the Navarrese People (UPN), a center-right regionalist party with working ties to the Popular Party (PP) – underscored that Barcelona could soon have a mayor “who defends the occupation of private property,” a reference to social activist Ada Colau.

The head of UPN, which has been ruling the Navarre region uninterruptedly since 1996 and the city of Pamplona since 1999, added that “naturally, voters are always right, but we could end up with what happened in Argentina under Perón or what’s happened in Venezuela. This is a change that we as voters will have to reflect upon, to see where we are headed.”

Barcina recommended reading Stefan Zweig’s The World of Yesterday, a famous account of the end of the Austrian-Hungarian empire in the early 20th century.

“Things can change like they changed in Germany before the two world wars, they can change like they changed in Venezuela or Argentina.”

"PP gives blessing to nationwide pacts to keep Podemos from taking power"

Quote
The national leadership of the Popular Party (PP), as well as several high-ranking members of the Spanish government, gave their blessing on Wednesday to a post-electoral strategy in Madrid of seeking pacts with the Socialists (PSOE) and Ciudadanos, with the aim of keeping new anti-austerity group Podemos out of power in City Hall (...)

Apparently, Mariano Rajoy is looking a substitute to Dolores de Cospedal in the post of secretary general of the Popular Party (the number two in the hierarchy behind chairman Rajoy). There's an interesting article in El Mundo about the woman: "Cospedal-Austen: Pride and Prejudice". Dolores de Cospedal adores Elizabeth Bennett, but her story will end worse than in Austen's novel. The failure in the Castilla-La Mancha regional election will dash her dreams of reaching higher heights in national politics (replacing Rajoy, for instance).

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2015/05/26/5563c67de2704e47128b4593.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on May 27, 2015, 03:31:45 pm
The PP, it has occurred to me watching these elections, must be the worst major centre-right party in Europe. Possibly worse than the GOP. How can they have the gall to compare anyone to dictators when their party was founded by a member of Franco's cabinet, their rhetoric remains unchanged from the 30's and their internal party democracy is about as flourishing as North Korea's?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 27, 2015, 03:48:15 pm
Well, Orban's Fidesz is arguably worse. PP seems not so far from Hungarians, though. To make things more nauseating and aside the reluctance to condemn the Franco's legacy, PP has been financed irregularly since 1990, the very year when Manuel Fraga rebuilt the former Alianza Popular into the present Popular Party. As for Barcina, she's not a PP member properly, although UPN and PP have parallel histories. You know what a terrible mess was the outcome of the election in Navarre. There's going to be an avalanche media noise if Podemos pacts with Bildu. The purple party and Manuela Carmena have been already compared with ETA, in spite of the fact that Carmena was once threatened by ETA as judge of the Supreme Court.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on May 28, 2015, 01:46:10 am
Gràcia is the most Catalanist of the Barcelona districts. Even though Vila de Gràcia is traditionally left-leaning (ICV used to poll strongly, ERC as of late), there are neighbourhoods that tend to favour CiU a bit more.
...
Great post! Thanks for the explanation.
Catalan politics are a true mess. Didn't understand them when I lived in Barcelona,and now with Podemos they seem even more obscure. But you shed some light over them :)


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 28, 2015, 03:33:51 am
The results in Barcelona by neighbourhood are available in La Vanguardia. In the Gràcia district BComú came ahead in two of the five neighbourhoods: Vila de Gràcia (BComú 26.5%, CiU 24.7%) and El Coll (BComú 28.5%, CiU 20.1%). CiU came ahead in Vallcarca i els Penitents (BComú 20.4%, CiU 28.4%), La Salut (BComú 21.2%, CiU 28.9%) and Camp d'en Grassot i Gràcia Nova (BComú 21.8%, CiU 28.4%).

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http://www.lavanguardia.com/vangdata/20150526/54431883852/mapa-interactivo-distribucion-voto-barrios-barcelona.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 28, 2015, 03:36:03 am
Instead of working on my thesis I did this:

Taken from here (http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/05/25/actualidad/1432563659_920456.html).

The elections of the past May 24th have ended the absolute majorities in the autonomic Parliaments. The division of power, and of seats, has opened a complex process of negotiations. The common elements in every autonomy is that an absolute majority is necessary in the first round [of investiture votes]. In the second round, it is sufficient to obtain more 'yes'es than 'no'es, hence abstention plays a fundamental role, except in Castilla-La Mancha, where in the -unlikely- case of there not being an agreement, the most voted list governs, in this case the PP of Dolores de Cospedal.

Madrid

In Madrid only the populares of Cristina Cifuentes, with 48 parliamentarians, and Ciudadanos, which has 17, can reach an absolute majority, fixed at 65 parliamentarians. A pact between the socialist Ángel Gabilondo and Podemos' candidate, José Manuel López, which would stand on the edge of power, with 64 seats. In order to supplant the PP, which governs Madrid since 1995, the hypothetical scenario would be an agreement between PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos.

The PP's candidate, Cristina Cifuentes will meet next Monday, the 25th, with the heads of the list of Ciudadanos, Ignacio Aguada and of Podemos, José Manuel López. Cifuentes also hopes to also meet with the PSOE's candidate, Ángel Gabilondo, although for this meeting there is no date yet.

Castilla-La Mancha

The socialist Emiliano García-Page (14 deputies) has the possibility of supplanting the Government of María Dolores de Cospedal, maybe the most emblematic of the PP, but it requires the supports of the three seats of Podemos, who, however has not guaranteed their support. Cospedal obtained on Sunday 16 seats, one less than the necessary ones to reach the absolute majority.

García-Page and the leader of Podemos, José García Molina, have already spoken on the phone to negotiate the support of the new party to a socialist Government. The regional secretary of Podemos and elected deputy, José García Molina, has hoped that an agreement with the PSOE will be reached "as soon as possible".

Extremadura

The socialist Guillermo Fernández-Vara (30 deputies) won the elections against José Antonio Monago (28) in Extremadura. In order to reach the absolute majority (33 seats), he will need the support of the autonomic leader of Podemos, Álvaro Jaén, who obtained 6 parliamentarians. In the meantime until a decision is reached, it is known that both have a cordial relationship from even before the local and regional elections. The sum of PP and Ciudadanos, which has one autonomic deputy, would not be enough in this community to be able to govern with stability.

The leader of Extremadura's socialists has already spoken on the phone with Podemos and Ciudadanos, in a 'polite conversation' and instends to meet this week although the exact date is yet to be confirmed.

Asturias

In the Principality of Asturias, the sum of PSOE, led by Javier Fernández (14), and Podemos, whose head of list is Emilio León (nine seats) would reach the absolute majority, fixed at 23 seats. This majority would not be reached by a pact between PSOE and Izquierda Unida (5 seats).

The sum of PP (11), Ciudadanos (3) and Foro Asturias (3), the party founded by Francisco Álvarez-Cascos, ads up to 17 parliamentarians.

The president of the PP of Asturias, Mercedes Fernández, has asked Ciudadanos and Foro Asturias their support for her election as president of the Principality. Fernñandez has manifested that she has already held talks to obtain these supports that the president of Foro Asturias, Cristina Coto, has already denied.

Aragón

The parliamentay arithmetic will be even more difficult for socialist Javier Lambán in Aragón, as the Podemos candidate, Pablo Echenique, has already warned him that he also wants to be president and he feels legitimised since he was only one percentage point away from the PSOE's result. In order to supplant Luisa Fernanda Rudi, winners of the elections, requires a pact between PSOE (18 deputies), Podemos (14) and the Chunta Aragonesista (2).

Echenique is yet to set his conditions to the PSOE, but at the very least, they will revolve around the fight against corruption, fiscal proposals and evictions.

The sum of the populares of the incumbent president, Luisa Fernanda Rudi, Ciudadanos and the PAR reach 31 seats, not enough to govern.

Echenique has stated that there have been no contacts yet with Javier Lambán and that to the question as to whether he would stand as candidate to preside Aragón, he has insisted that "at the present moment, I haven't ruled out anything".

Comunidad Valenciana

In order to expel the PP in the Comunidad Valencia requires an agreement between, at least, three parties PSOE (23), Compromís (19) and Podemos (13). They all agree in the need to establish a left-wing programme but the candidates of PSPV-PSOE and of Compromís both maintain their desire to preside the Generalitat.

The sum of seats of PP (31) y Ciudadanos (13) would not reach the absolute majority to govern, which is fixed at 50 deputies.

The secretary of Podemos, Antonio Montiel, is to meet , next Monday, at 10.30, the general secretary of the PSPV, Ximo Puig, as well as Compromís' candidate, Mónica Oltra, to deal with the future Valencian Government "in a three-way meeting".

Navarra

Geroa Bai, led by Uxue Barkos, has obtained nine seats of the 50 that Navarra's parliament has. It could count on the support of EH Bildu ( 8 ) and of Izquierda-Ezkerra (2) but the sum of all three doesn't reach the absolute majority, set at 26 seats. Pablo Iglesias said that Podemos would not pact with Bildu if it didn't condemn ETA's violence. Now they are the key to allow a change in Government.

The other three parties with parliamentary representation, PP, PSOE and the winner UPN don't have the sufficient majority to prevent this change and would not support any agreement hcih requires siding with Bildu.

Geroa Bai and Izquierda-Ezkerra have agreed to work for a "pragmatic accord" in an hour-long meeting held in the Navarrese Parliament.

Baleares

The parliamentary panorama is formed by eight parties. The PP suffered an important loss and obtained twenty seats. The socialist listed obtained 14 and the sum of the latter with Podemos (10) doesn't reach the 30 seats required for an absolute majority. The nationalists of Més per Mallorca and Més per Minorca obtained six and three seats each. The regionalist split of the PP, PI, enters with three deputies, while Ciudadanos obtained 2 and the Grupo por Formentera (GxF) obtained one.

Negotiations will be complex in the Balearic Islands for the socialist Francina Armengol, who has announced she will held talks with Podemos and MÉS for a left-wing government.

Castilla y León

The PP's list obtained 42 seats, one seat away from the absolute majority. The PSOE reached 25. Podemos entered into the autonomic Parliament with 10 seats and Ciudadanos, with five. Meanwhile IU and Leonese People's Union (UPL), obtained one seat each.

The only contact known to have taken place is the one held between the federal coordinator of IU, Cayo Lara on the phone with the federal secretary of the PSOE, Pedro Sánchez. The socialists of Castilla y León have not set any kind of 'red line' to negotiate.

La Rioja

The PP also lost the absolute majority in La Rioja, as it only obtained 15 seats in a Parliament of 33. The rest of seats are distributed between PSOE (10), Ciudadanos (4) and Podemos (4).

Sanz, who has been in power for the last 20 years, would have to reach an agreement with Ciudadanos if it wants to obtain an absolute majority. A potential agreement between PSOE and Podemos would not suffice. There haven't been any talks yet.

Murcia

The PP won in Murcia with 22 deputies, one below the 23 required for an absolute majority. PSOE obtained 13 and Podemos six. Ciudadanos got four deputies.

The PP's candidate, Pedo Antonio Sánchez, has not ruled out anything about possible pacts and has extended the offer to negotiate to all parties. "If there is no statesmanship, if governability is not guaranteed, we will have to hold elections again" he has warned. No talks have held yet.

Cantabria

In Cantabria, no party reached the 18 seats needed for an absolute majority. Ignacio Diego's PP reached 13 seats, Miguel Ángel Revilla's PRC got 12 seats and the PSOE of Rosa Eva Díez obtained six. Hence, the three deputies of Podemos or the two of Ciudadanos are they key. The leaders of PRC and of Podemos already held on Wednesday a first meeting to know each other but without dealing with any possible pact of the conditions of the purple party to facilitate a Government led by the regionalist Miguel Ángel Revilla. According to Podemos, the conditions will not be presented only to Revilla and, if Ignacio Diego, also wants to know them, "he'll have them there".

Canarias

In the Canary Islands, the CC-PNC obtained 18 out of 60 seats. The PSOE obtained 15 seats; PP obtained 12; Podemos, 7; Nueva Canarias, 5 and Agricupación Socialista de Gomera (ASG), three.

Coalición Canaria (CC) and PSOE have started today, Thursday the round of negotiations to reach a government pact in the Canary Islands.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 28, 2015, 07:45:25 am
CyL spokesperson just demanded the resignation of Industry minister Soria. WTF, one defeat and Spain's most monolithic party seems to be collapsing before our very eyes.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 29, 2015, 06:08:29 am
Results by district of the 2015 local elections in the city of Valencia:

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Partido Popular (PP) 25.71% (-26.83%) y 10 (-10) councilors

Compromís per València 23.28% (+14.25%) y 9 (+6) councilors

Ciudadanos (C’s) 15.38% (new) y 6 (+6) councilors

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) 14.07% (-7.69%) y 5 (-3) councilors

València en Comú (VALC) 9.81% (nuevo) y 3 (+3) councilors

Esquerra Unida País Valencià (EUPV) 4.71% (-2.46%) y 0 (-2) councilors

Unión, Progreso y Democracia (UPyD) 1.38% (-1.45%) y 0 (nc) councilors

Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal (PACMA) 1.09% (+0.64%) y 0 (nc) councilors

Highlights.

1) PP's debacle. Figures speak by themselves.

2) Compromís replaces PSOE as the main party of the left in the Valencia City Hall. Joan Ribó (Compromís) will replace Rita Barberá (PP) in the mayoralty, with the support of the socialists and the Podemos outfit.

3) C's and València in Comú get into the Town Hall, while EUPV (the IU's regional branch) fails to reach the 5% threshold and lose its 2 seats.

C's result was particularly strong (although slightly lower than some polls predicted) and it's specially remarkable that they came a very strong second in the Pla del Reial district, one of the PP strongholds in the city, getting more than 25% of the vote. VALC got a result lower than expected, attributable to the unexpectedly high result won by Compromís.


CyL spokesperson just demanded the resignation of Industry minister Soria. WTF, one defeat and Spain's most monolithic party seems to be collapsing before our very eyes.

I know José Manuel Soria pretty well and understand why the premier of Castilla y León dislikes him. It's hard to find someone more arrogant than my fellow countryman. It'd be nice if Soria and Cospedal are swallowed by a black hole. Minister of Education José Ignacio Wert is about to leave his post for "personal reasons" or "family circumstances". Apparently Wert told Rajoy that he wanted to go and the PM asked him to wait until the elections took place. Rajoy may or may not reshuffle the cabinet in a couple of weeks, taking advantage of Wert's departure. Thank you for that summary ;)


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on May 29, 2015, 07:55:16 am
If I remember correctly, Wert wants to be Spain's ambassador to the OECD so that gives the perfect excuse for a reshuffle, maybe Montoro will follow suit. That being said, rumour has it that Cospedal will obtain the Education ministry, as a 'honorary' retirement from her post as General Secretary of the PP.

Well yes, but among other amazing things regarding the CyL spokesperson is that he said, that personally, were he to support someone for the mayoralty of Valladolid it would be the candidate from Valladolid toma la Palabra (IU), Saravia, over both the PP and the PSOE candidates. In any case, De La Riva was just indicted for delaying a judicial decision over removing a fence in his Valladolid attic for over a decade, and he won't be able to even be city councilor for the nest 13 months or so. It's all going down so fast, I don't think I had ever checked El Norte de Castilla so often as this week.

EDIT: He just announced he will challenge the decision and that he will remain as mayor en funciones until the 13th until the plenary session of the new city council meets. He also points out he has not been indicted for corruption, I guess that's the only good thing of it, he's not corrupt. Even if his government has been signing contracts until 2019 when they have no right to do it as a caretaker government. Oh and, like in Madrid and every other major city waiting turnover I bet they are burning/shredding more paper than our cities' garbage disposal service can take on.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 29, 2015, 08:13:35 am
Yes, I forgot that Cospedal might replace Wert in Education. As for De la Riva and according to El Diario, he has been disqualified from sitting as a member of the City Hall, on having been found guilty of a disobedience crime. De la Riva delayed nearly five years the execution of a judgement which forced him to restore the legality in a real estate property. Namely it's the Caja Duero building in Plaza de Zorrilla, in which De la Riva owned an apartment. The regional High Court of Justice ruled that there were several housing irregularities and cancelled a project to refurbish said building.

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/alcalde-Valladolid-condenado-desobediencia-concejal_0_393010838.html

As a reminder, De la Riva lost majority in the Sunday's local elections. PSOE, an IU-led coalition and the local Podemos outfit added 15 out of 29 councilors in the City Hall. The three municipal groups agreed on ousting the incumbent mayor. It's not clear if PSOE will govern in minority or IU will enter in a coalition that Podemos won't join. The result was the following:

PP 35.81% (12 councilors), PSOE 23.22% ( 8 ), Toma la Palabra (IU-Equo) 13.39% (4), Sí Se Puede (Podemos) 9.98% (3), C's 7.61% (2).

By the way, IU got a surprisingly strong result in the town of Zamora and given the correlation of forces may win the mayoralty. I ignore the reason why.

http://resultadoslocales2015.interior.es/99MU/DMU0849927599_L1.htm?d=5687

In other news, new legal setback for PP in the Bárcenas case:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/29/inenglish/1432889857_823672.html

Quote
The Popular Party (PP) has been dealt a new blow in the “Bárcenas case,” a criminal inquiry into secret party ledgers allegedly reflecting illegal donations, under-the-table payments and a long-running slush fund.

High Court examining judge José de la Mata on Thursday added accounting and electoral crimes to the list of unlawful activities presumably engaged in by the ruling conservatives “between 1990 and at least 2008.” (...)

Pablo Iglesias admits relationship with socialists has changed:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/28/inenglish/1432821438_817486.html

Quote
Pablo Iglesias, leader of the anti-austerity party Podemos, admits that his relationship with Spain’s Socialists (PSOE) has changed and could enter a new phase in the coming weeks.

In a press conference on Thursday, Iglesias said he has observed “revealing gestures indicating that the relationship has changed” on the part of PSOE secretary general Pedro Sánchez.

“It is evident that now Pedro Sánchez is calling me, and before this he wasn’t calling me,” said Iglesias (...)

Iglesias stated recently that Podemos wouldn't join regional coalition governments led by PSOE. Perhaps Aragon would be an exception. There, the list topped by Pablo Echenique came virtually tied with the socialists in popular vote. In any case, Pablo Iglesias and Pedro Sánchez need each other's parties. Socialists need the Podemos support to get their candidates elected in various regional and local investiture sessions.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 30, 2015, 08:45:56 am
Popular Party's corruption saga continues: the conservative party dismisses a Valencia official arrested on corruption charges:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/29/inenglish/1432910939_560122.html

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Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy on Friday removed his delegate in the Valencia region from office, just hours after the latter’s arrest on corruption charges.

Serafín Castellano is suspected of involvement in embezzlement, breach of public duty and bribing public officials in connection with public contracts awarded while he was working for the Valencia regional government, before he accepted his most recent role.

After detaining him in Benissanó (Valencia), law enforcement authorities also raided the Valencia regional health, infrastructure and governance departments and took away a considerable amount of material.

Investigators are looking at regional contracts secured by a company called Avialsa while Castellano was a Valencian government official. Castellano and the president of Avialsa, which provided fire extinguishing services to the regional administration, had been on several game hunts together, and the latter allegedly presented the official with a hunting rifle.

Another business under scrutiny is Taroncher, which obtained a contract to build a forest path in the town of Viver, Castellón province, while Castellano headed up the regional health department.

The arrest sent new shock waves through the Valencian PP, which is still trying to come to grips with the major blow delivered by voters at Sunday’s local and regional elections.

A PP bastion for decades, Valencia has been the focus of a multitude of egregious corruption cases that often made world headlines. Three weeks ago, the head of the Valencia provincial authority, Alfonso Rus, was stripped of his post in connection with illegal commissions accepted in exchange for contracts (...)

Mariano Rajoy says before a businessmen audience in Sitges (Barcelona) that"we have to change things", but not on economic policies. Rajoy attributed bad election results to corruption and the "constant hammering" of disturbing news in TV, because PM thinks that his party has been treated unfairly by critic journalists. Rajoy talked about the "problems" to bring the wonders of the economic recovery to people, as well he considers that they had been lacking an explanation for measures like brutal VAT increases. "It is time to lowering taxes", told Rajoy to the select audience.

Paul Krugman says that just a few days ago Very Serious Europeans took Spain as an example of big success, a vindication of the austerity programme. Obviously, Spanish people disagrees.

This news surfaced days before the election: "Inequality between rich and poor has hit record highs, OECD warns"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/21/inenglish/1432203309_060148.html

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Inequality between the rich and the poor has reached its highest level in certain countries since the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) began keeping records 30 years ago.

The crisis has widened this gap in economies such as Spain’s, due to, among other factors, higher taxation and social spending cuts.

A new report entitled In It Together: Why Less Inequality Benefits All shows that “wealth is even more concentrated at the top than income, exacerbating the overall disadvantage of low-income households.” The study is based on data from the 34 countries that make up the OECD, which is an international economic organization aimed at stimulating economic progress and world trade. Among the 34 members are 21 of the 28 European Union states, as well as the US, Mexico, Japan, Australia and South Korea.

In 2012, the bottom 40% owned only 3% of total household wealth in the 18 OECD countries with comparable data. By contrast, the top 10% controlled half of all total household wealth and the wealthiest 1% owned 18%,” says the report.

In Spain, household income dropped an average annual 3.5% between 2007 and 2011, similar to the figures for Ireland and Iceland.

Meanwhile, the bottom 10% of poor Spanish homes lost average annual income of 13% over the same period, while the 10% wealthiest only lost 1.5%.


Pre-tax inequality levels had been stable before the crisis, but soared with the economic downturn and continue to grow despite a slight recovery, says the OECD. This is because of high jobless rates and tax adjustments that have affected unemployment benefits, education and investment. This trend is visible in Spain, Greece and Ireland.

In Spain, there have been additional measures adding to this growing inequality. Fiscal consolidation raised taxes on income and spending (in 2011 and 2013), while social cuts in 2013 affected the lower earners.

A rise in temporary jobs and wage differences between men and women also played a role. In this case, the worst performers are Germany, Mexico and Spain.

As a result, poverty has increased between 2007 and 2011. Across all OECD countries, the population below the poverty line grew from 1% to 9.4%. In Spain, that figure is an alarming 18%, nearly twice as much as before the crisis. And it is often youngsters, not the elderly, who are more likely to fall into poverty.

OECD report: "In It Together: Why Less Inequality Benefits All"

http://www.oecd.org/social/in-it-together-why-less-inequality-benefits-all-9789264235120-en.htm


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on May 31, 2015, 10:19:35 am
Seville 2015: local election results by district.

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Provisional results:

Partido Popular (PP) 33.08% (-16.23%) 12 (-8) councilors

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) 32.14% (+2.69%)  11 (=) councilors

Ciudadanos (C’s) 9.3% (new)  3 (+3) councilors

Participa Sevilla 9.01% (new)  3 (+3) councilors

Izquierda Unida-Convocatoria por Andalucía (IULV-CA) 5.97% (-1.18%) 2 (=) councilors

Ganemos Sevilla 4.13% (new) 0 councilors

Partido Andalucista (PA) 1.41% (-3.37%) 0 (sc) councilors

Equo 1,04% (-0.17%) 0 (nc) councilors

Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal (PACMA) 1.02% (+0.6%)  0 (nc) councilors

Unión, Progreso y Democracia (UPyD) 0.84% (-2.41%) y 0 (nc) councilors

There was a terrible mess of "popular unity lists" in the Andalusian capital. Finally Podemos endorsed the Participa Sevilla list, which won 3 councilors in the City Hall. IU ran in its own and kept 2 councilors. Some IU dissidents submitted a list called Ganemos Sevilla , which failed to win seats but splitted the vote in the left and created a considerable confusion. Finally, Equo ecologists ran their own list.

Probably Juan Espadas (PSOE) will replace Juan Ignacio Zoido (PP) in the mayoralty.

PP will likely hold the mayoralty in Málaga, the second largest Andalusian city. Conservatives might hold Granada, Almería and Jaén as well, propped up by C's. However, PP is about to lose Córdoba if opposition parties join forces. PSOE came first in Huelva at the expense of PP. Cádiz will go likely to Podemos. The candidate of the Podemos outfit in Cádiz is José María González Santos, aka 'Kichi'. He is the partner of Teresa Rodríguez, the Podemos leader in Andalusia.

Málaga (31 councilors): PP 36.4% (13), PSOE 26.2% (9), Málaga Ahora 13.3% (4), C's 10.3% (3), IU 7.4% (2).

Córdoba (29 councilors): PP 34.4% (11), PSOE 20.5% (7), Ganemos 12.5% (4), IU 12% (4), C's 8.6% (2), Unión Cordobesa 5.6% (1)

Granada (29 councilors): PP 35.4% (11), PSOE 25.9% ( 8 ), C's 14% (4), Vamos Granada 12.7% (3), IU 5.8% (1)

Almería (27 councilors): PP 40.4% (13), PSOE 27% (9), C's 10% (3), IU 7% (2), Ahora Almería 3.7% (-), Ganemos 3.7% (-). Two "popular unity lists" competing against each other with tragic consequences.

Cádiz (27 councilors): PP 33.7% (10), Por Cádiz Sí Se Puede 28% ( 8 ), PSOE 17.4% (4), IU 8.4% (2), C's 7.1% (2)

Out of the provincial capitals, PP might lose Jerez and the situation in Marbella is unclear.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 03, 2015, 06:36:26 am
Zaragoza 2015: local election results by district.

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Provisional results:

Partido Popular (PP) 26.88% (-14.38%)  10 (-5) councilors

Zaragoza en Común (ZGZ) 24.57% (+16.15%)  9 (+6) councilors*

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) 18.65% (-8,49%)  6 (-4) councilors

Ciudadanos (C’s) 12.29% (new)  4 (+4) councilors

Chunta Aragonesista (CHA) 6.78% (-2.46%)  2 (-1) councilors

Partido Aragonés (PAR) 2.82% (-1.72%) y 0 (sc) councilors

Unión, Progreso y Democracia (UPyD) 1.51% (-2.07%)  0 (sc) councilors

Escaños en Blanco (EB) 1.36% (new)  0 councilors

Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal (PACMA) 1.18% (+0.85%)  0 (sc) councilors

*With regard to IU and Ecolo-Verdes en 2011. Zaragoza en Común rallies Podemos, IU, Equo and other parties, as well social movements, independents, etc.

Incumbent mayor is Juan Alberto Belloch (PSOE), a judge who was minister of Interior and Justice in mid 90s. Belloch was elected mayor with the support of IU and the Aragonese Union (CHA); he didn't seek reelection. In all likelihood next mayor will be lawyer and human rights activist Pedro Santisteve (ZGZ).

Regional election results in the municipality of Zaragoza (Aragon):

PP 27.1%, Podemos 24.12%, PSOE 17.17%, , C’s 11.38%, CHA 5.28%, IU 5.06%, PAR 3.69%.

If I have time I'll post some regional election maps from next weekend on, regardless if you care or not and only because it's more funny sharing that kind of stuff.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on June 03, 2015, 07:09:57 am
Kinda surprising also how CiU won in Sant Antoni (by very little, admiteddly), since it's much more similar to Raval than to Eixample.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on June 03, 2015, 08:55:26 am
I at least find these very instructing, and ask you to keep posting them, Velasco! ;)

I will come up with a few questions about the near future shortly.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 04, 2015, 05:17:50 pm
Kinda surprising also how CiU won in Sant Antoni (by very little, admiteddly), since it's much more similar to Raval than to Eixample.

I've just checked the Sant Antoni results in the EP 2014 elections and ERC came ahead in that neighbourhood getting 25.8% to CiU's 24.5%. In this local election ERC got nearly a half of that percentage. CiU uses to win in all of l'Eixample, although Sant Antoni has a lower income than the central Eixample neighbourhoods. I think that CiU came ahead PSC in the 2011 general election (I can check it, but I'm sure of that). I know little about that place, but it appears more nationalistic than El Raval... and a bit less than Sants, that is located west of Sant Antoni. ERC and CUP got 13.4% and 9.2% respectively in Sant Antoni to 14.7% and 10.7% in Sants. 

http://lameva.barcelona.cat/eixample/ca/home/el-barri-de-sant-antoni

I at least find these very instructing, and ask you to keep posting them, Velasco! ;)

I will come up with a few questions about the near future shortly.

Thanks. In any case I won't have time to post regularly. As for the maps, I made already the islands (Balearic and Canaries) but I want to post Madrid first. I hope I can finish Valencia.

Albert Rivera held private meetings with Mariano Rajoy and Pedro Sánchez while Pablo Iglesias met with Sánchez (it may sound strange, but they didn't know each other personally) but wasn't invited by Rajoy. A couple of members of the Madrid regional government have resigned after having been involved in the investigation of the Púnica case, another PP corruption affair. The most relevant is Lucía Figar, who was holding the education portfolio and has a close relationship with Esperanza Aguirre. Those last minute resignations have been interpreted as a gesture to get the C's support in the investiture of Cristina Cifuentes as premier.

Pablo Iglesias met with Mónica Oltra from Compromís. Podemos leader would prefer Oltra rather than the PSOE candidate Ximo Puig as regional premier in Valencia; Oltra herself says that's not an indispensable condition, but she doesn't renounce to head the government. Apparently they talked about the possibility of running together Podemos and Compromís in the next general election, albeit vaguely and without reaching a decision.



Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on June 06, 2015, 03:47:59 pm
Socialists municipal heatmap

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Popular Party heatmap

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Overall:

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Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 07, 2015, 05:34:23 am
Bilbao 2015: local election results by district: (
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Results (final):

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea– Partido Nacionalista Vasco (EAJ–PNV) 39.34% (-4.82%) 13 (-2) councilors

Euskal Herria Bildu (EH BILDU) 14.04% (-0.17%) 4 (=) councilors

Partido Socialista de Euskadi–Euskadiko Ezkerra (PSE–EE) 11.97%  (-1.48%) 4 (=) councilors

Partido Popular (PP) 11.86% (-5.38%) 4 (-2) councilors

Udalberri-Bilbao en Común 8.47% (+3.98%)* 2 (+2) councilors

Ganemos Sí Se Puede-Goazen 6.53% (new) 2 (+2) councilors

Ciudadanos (C's) 3.52% (new)  0 councilors

Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal (PACMA) 1.2% (+0.72%) y 0 (nc) councilors

Unión, Progreso y Democracia (UPyD) 0.84% (-0.24%) y 0 (nc) councilors

*Udalberri includes Podemos, IU and Equo among others. Ganemos (or "let's win") is a list promoted by some Podemos dissidents in Bilbao, whom have been accused by the party of "swindle and cheat" voters. The 'Ganemos' people say they are loyal to the "original spirit" of Podemos.

Podemos performed better in the elections for the Juntas Generales de Bizkaia, that is to say the Biscay provincial legislature. Results in Bilbao municipality were:

EAJ-PNV 37.57%, Podemos 15.37%, EH Bildu 13.67%, PP 12.15%, PSE-EE (PSOE) 12.1%, C’s 3.55%, Irabazi (IU, Equo) 3.37%, PACMA 0.94%, UPyD 0.77%.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Simfan34 on June 07, 2015, 03:01:49 pm
The PP, it has occurred to me watching these elections, must be the worst major centre-right party in Europe. Possibly worse than the GOP. How can they have the gall to compare anyone to dictators when their party was founded by a member of Franco's cabinet, their rhetoric remains unchanged from the 30's and their internal party democracy is about as flourishing as North Korea's?

There is a reason the Francoist parties don't get much of the vote.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 08, 2015, 01:03:52 pm
Madrid 2015: leading party by municipality/district in the regional elections.

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Results in the municipality of Madrid (bordered in yellow) are shown by municipal district.

Total regional results:

http://resultados2015.madrid.org/12AU/DAU12999CM_L1.htm

Among the highlights, many people in the city of Madrid splitted their vote in the local and regional elections between candidates Manuela Carmena (Ahora Madrid) and Ángel Gabilondo (PSOE). Ahora Madrid got 519.2 thousand votes in the municipal elections and Podemos 287.6 thousand in the regional elections; PSOE 249.2k and 416.8k respectively; IU 27.8k and 67.7k On the other hand, PP regional candidate Cristina Cifuentes got more votes (568.8 thousand) in the capital than Esperanza Aguirre (563.3 thousand). PP losses in the city of Madrid are strongly correlated with income (particularly strong in districts like Villaverde, Villa de Vallecas or Usera), according to this analysis:

http://www.eldiario.es/piedrasdepapel/mirada-resultados_6_392020810.html

In the municipalities of the so-called 'red belt' south of Madrid PSOE came first, while Podemos performed strongly. Examples: Getafe (PSOE 30%, PP 25.7%, Podemos 23.1%, C's 9.9%), Leganés (PSOE 29.7%, PP 22.9%, Podemos 22.6%, C's 10.1%). West of Madrid there were similar results in working-class municipalities like Coslada and San Fernando. In Alcalá de Henares PP came a weak first (27.4%), followed by PSOE (26.4%), Podemos (20.3%) and C's (13.4%). SW of Madrid PP came first in Móstoles (PP 28.9%, PSOE 26.8%, Podemos 22.8%, C's 10.5%) and Alcorcón (PP 29.9%, PSOE 27.2%, Podemos 20.6%). In high income municipalities west of Madrid PP came obviously in first place, and in many cases C's was the second party. Examples: Las Rozas (PP 41.4%, C's 19.4%, PSOE 16.9%, Podemos 11.6%) and Majadahonda (PP 44.9%, C's 17.9%, PSOE 16.9%, Podemos 10.7%). Podemos came first in a couple of municipalities of symbolic value: Parla (SW of Madrid) and Rivas-Vaciamadrid (SE). Parla was the fiefdom of Tomás Gomez, the former leader of the PSOE regional branch who was dethroned by Pedro Sánchez and replaced by independent Ángel Gabilondo as candidate. Rivas is the main IU stronghold in the region; in the municipal elections IU managed to come first ahead the local Podemos outfit, which placed a close second.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Nanwe on June 09, 2015, 08:41:47 am
Historic overview:

So, I got bored and I did the results of the local elections and the regional elections since the start of democracy in Spain. It was an easy affair, it is all very static. There are some things going on under the map that aren't seen because it only shows the most voted party for each government, which is not necessarily the most voted party within a region or the party that holds the post of President/Premier/Lehendakari or whatever. That is especially important for the Canary Islands, where the CC has a policy of either picking PP or PSOE as their junior partners depending on the term but themselves being on top. I might refine the map later to differentiate between minority/coalition and absolute majority single-party governments.

The map does not show the occasions when, especially with the CDS, a junior party shifts its support from AP/CP/PP to PSOE or vice versa and hence the executive changes mid-legislature. I'm still trying to find a more nice-looking way of showing it.

Because not all the regional elections happen at the same time (usually Galicia, Basque Country, Catalonia and Andalucia have their own legislative periods), I had to condense it all.

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Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 09, 2015, 01:25:57 pm
Nice work, Nanwe. Perhaps you have to clarify that square symbols represent regional capitals and small circles provincial capitals. Obviously in the 2015 map the symbols in purple represent capitals where "popular unity lists" backed by Podemos are going to govern: Ahora Madrid, Barcelona en Comú, Zaragoza en Común, Marea Atlántica or Somos Oviedo.

In the news, Ciudadanos decided to support Susana Díaz in Andalusia. PSOE and C's have signed three documents required by the orange party as condition to unlock the investiture of the socialist candidate. Documents include a Decalogue of measures against corruption and for "democratic regeneration", as well economic and welfare safeguards.

Meanwhile, PP and C's agreed a "smooth path to Madrid premiership".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/06/09/inenglish/1433859811_936345.html

Quote
The Madrid regional government began its 10th legislature on Tuesday with two new parties – Podemos and Ciudadanos – represented and the conservative Popular Party without an absolute majority in the assembly for the first time in 20 years.

If PP candidate Cristina Cifuentes finally does get to become regional premier, after reportedly reaching a deal with Ciudadanos on Monday, she will have to govern by seeking out alliances with other parties in a scenario very different from the one her group has been used to in previous years.

In order to bring Cifuentes closer to the premiership, the PP on Monday agreed to hand Ciudadanos the vice-speaker’s seat on the regional parliamentary assembly, the top internal body, where it had not been entitled to a place in its own right.

The PSOE and Podemos have interpreted the move as a prior step towards Cifuentes’ investiture, but the PP candidate insisted that the negotiations had only just begun. “It’s not that the agreement is in its early stages, it’s that we have barely started to talk. Yesterday’s meeting was basically about finalizing the make-up of the parliamentary assembly,” Cifuentes said.

There's an interesting article in Spanish about the "Zamora miracle". Zamora is a conservative-leaning provincial capital in Castile and León that is about to be governed by IU:

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/06/08/actualidad/1433767925_755097.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 10, 2015, 06:41:30 am
Balearic Islands: leading party by municipality in the 2015 regional elections.

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Full results:

http://www.resultatseleccions2015.caib.es/04AU/DAU04999CM_L2.htm


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 11, 2015, 01:57:47 am
Canary Islands: leading party by municipality in the 2015 regional elections.

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Full results:

http://elecciones2015.gobcan.es/05AU/DAU05999CM_L1.htm


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 11, 2015, 01:59:42 am
Asturias:

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Full results:

http://www.resultadoselecciones2015.asturias.es/03AU/DAU03999CM_L1.htm


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 13, 2015, 03:25:26 am
Today El País entitles: "Leftist governments take shape in cities and regions across Spain"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/06/12/inenglish/1434103988_673495.html

Quote
Spain’s swing to the left, evidenced by the results of the municipal and regional elections of May 24, is beginning to take shape.

Following a flurry of cross-party negotiations triggered by the fragmented political scenario that emerged from the ballot, at least three major Spanish cities will now be run by leftist forces after decades of conservative rule.

The Andalusian city of Cádiz is set to get a mayor from Por Cádiz Sí Se Puede, a bloc whose members include the anti-austerity party Podemos. After securing the support of the Socialists, José María González Santos, aka Kichi, will oust the long-serving Teófila Martínez , of the Popular Party (PP), who had enjoyed five absolute majorities over the last 20 years.

Martínez still managed to get the most votes this time around, earning her party 10 council seats, but the Socialists chose to add their five councilors to the Podemos brand’s eight. The investiture deal will not be carried forward into a ruling coalition, however, as the Socialists have said they will remain in the opposition.

In the city of Valencia, acting mayor Rita Barberá of the PP on Friday announced she was giving up her councilor’s seat in a move that saves her from handing the baton over to Joan Ribó, of the regional party Compromís, who is set to become the new mayor with support from the Socialists and Valencia en Comú. Barberá, a controversial figure, had been mayor for over two decades.

Meanwhile, in Madrid, Manuela Carmena of Ahora Madrid, another newly formed, Podemos-supported bloc, is set to become the next mayor of the Spanish capital after clinching a deal with the local Socialists.

In this case as well, the Socialists will remain in the opposition after helping Carmena into the mayor’s seat. But they stand to gain some extra power since Carmena plans to bolster the city council’s powers at the expense of the local executive.

Details of the deal will be revealed later on Friday, but what is clear is that the PP is losing its grip over Madrid after 24 years of uninterrupted rule. Here as well, the conservative candidate, Esperanza Aguirre, had managed a narrow victory at the polls, but the Ahora Madrid-Socialist alliance adds more councilors (...)

In short, four of the five most important Spanish cities will be governed by leftist "citizen platforms" or forces of the "alternative left": Madrid (Ahora Madrid), Barcelona (BComú), Zaragoza (ZGZ) and Valencia (Compromís). The remaining city is Seville, that will go for PSOE with the support of the Podemos local outfit and IU. All those cities were governed by PP except Barcelona, which had a CiU mayor.

Besides, A Coruña and Santiago de Compostela in Galicia will be governed by "popular unity lists" with the support of the socialists. PSOE will govern Vigo with a majority (Abel Caballero won a crushing victory on May 24) and Lugo with the support of the left.

However, in Asturias Podemos and PSOE didn't reach agreements to govern the cities Gijón and Oviedo. Regional premier Javier Fernández (PSOE) didn't want to accept that socialists support the Somos Oviedo candidate Ana Taboada, because the Podemos outfit in Gijón voted in assembly withdrawing support to the local socialist candidate. Unless they come to an agreement, PP and the FAC will hold respectively Oviedo and Gijón, on having been their lists the most voted in the respective local elections.

In the Basque Country, the mayoralty of Vitoria will go from PP to PNV. Bildu will vote for Gorka Urtaran (PNV) to replace Javier Maroto (PP); although there's no formal agreement between Bildu and PNV-PSOE. On election night PP won 9 councilors, EH Bildu 6, PNV 5 and PSOE 4 councilors. EH Bildu will allow PNV to govern the Diputación of Álava, so the jeltzales will hold the three provinces with their respective capitals. PNV won the local election in San Sebastián and the Gipuzkoa provincial election to EH Bildu on May 24.

The map of likely mayoralties in provincial capitals stands as follows:

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Key: blue=PP, red=PSOE, purple="citizen platforms", green=PNV, yellow=CiU, grey="others". Provincial capitals going to "others" are: Valencia (Compromís), Palma de Mallorca (PSOE-MÉS), Santa Cruz de Tenerife (CC), Pamplona (EH BILDU), Pontevedra (BNG) and Zamora (IU). Oviedo (Asturias) is left in white because it's uncertain (PP or Somos Oviedo). Actually, there is no big difference with the map posted by Nanwe some days ago.

As for ongoing talks to form regional governments:

Quote
At the regional level, the PP is bracing to lose another major conservative stronghold: the Valencian region will be ruled by a leftist coalition comprising the Socialists, Podemos and the regional party Compromís.

On Thursday, their leaders signed a document pledging to “end the social emergency situation and lay down the foundations for a new Valencia.”

The deal does not specify who will be the regional premier yet. “Soon there will be a government of change,” said Mónica Oltra, of Compromís. The Socialist Ximo Puig added that the future Valencian government “will be a shared government, by all and for all.”

And in Andalusia, which held its own early regional elections on March 22 but had been premier-less ever since, the Socialist Susana Díaz finally got herself invested on Thursday after securing the support of emerging party Ciudadanos.

“I extend my hand to all parties, to those who voted for me and to those who did not,” she said following the investiture session.

Díaz added that there is “a lot of work to do” after more than two months of political gridlock. Some of her earliest measures will deal with university grants and housing policy.


As said previously, C's is about to support the investiture of Cristina Cifuentes (PP) in the region of Madrid.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on June 13, 2015, 03:30:39 am
Is thee any major municipality which still has a majority government.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 13, 2015, 04:18:59 am
Is thee any major municipality which still has a majority government.

I guess you mean majorities held by a single party and not coalition governments, right? Among municipalities above 250,000 people, I only recall Vigo (PSOE). Probably I could find some single party majorities in municipalities between 100,000 and 250,000. As for provincial or regional capitals I recall Ceuta (PP) and Soria (PSOE). Neither of those two is a big city.

Right now, there is a live stream covering the formation of city councils. Manuela Carmena's investiture has just begun. Ada Colau will count in her investiture  with the affirmative vote of ERC, PSC and the CUP, so she will be elected with a majority. However, Colau won't govern in coalition and BComú only has 11 out of 41 councilors. She will have to negotiate initiatives with the different opposition parties.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 13, 2015, 04:21:27 pm
Mayors in provincial and regional capitals (and a handful of important towns/cities) after this morning:

Region of Madrid: Manuela Carmena (Ahora Madrid) elected Mayor of Madrid with the support of PSOE. PP councilors voted for Esperanza Aguirre and C's councilors for Begoña Villacís. Pablo Iglesias and Podemos' top members attended the opening session of the Madrid City Council. The nomination of Carmena was cheered by some people in the audience: "¡Sí se puede!" ("yes, it can be done").

Catalonia:

Ada Colau (BComú) was proclaimed Mayor of Barcelona with the support of 21 out of 41 councilors, including 10 from BComú, 5 from ERC, 4 from the PSC and 1 (out of 3) from the CUP. Colau said her nomination is the proof that "the impossible is possible".

Carles Puigdemont (CiU) was elected Mayor of Girona, Àngel Ros (PSC) Mayor of Lleida and Josep Félix Ballesteros (PSC) Mayor of Tarragona. All of them were elected without a majority and proclaimed mayors because their respective lists placed first in the elections.

Region of Valencia:

Joan Ribó (Compromís) elected Mayor of Valencia with the support of PSOE and València en Comú (Podemos). Former mayor Rita Barberá (PP) resigned yesterday as member of the City Council and didn't attend the proclamation of the new mayor.

In Alicante Gabriel Echávarri (PSOE) will govern in coalition with Guanyar Alacant (Podemos, IU and others) and Compromís. Castellón will be governed by Amparo Marco (PSOE) with the support of Compromís and Castelló en Moviment.

Andalusia:

Juan Espadas (PSOE) elected Mayor of Seville with the support of Podemos and IU.

Francisco de la Torre (PP) elected Mayor of Málaga with the support of C's.

In Almería the local branch of C's agreed with socialists on voting the PSOE candidate, but the party's national executive rectified that decision and orange councilors finally abstained, so Juan Carlos Pérez Navas (PP) was elected mayor.

PSOE gets the mayoralty of Córdoba for the first time in the present democratic period (the city has been governed previously by PCE, IU and PP). Socialist candidate Isabel Ambrosio was supported by IU and the Podemos outfit.

The abstention of the 4 C's councilors allowed the investiture of José Torres Hurtado (PP) as Mayor of Granada, who got 11 votes from his municipal group. The socialist candidate got the votes of PSOE and Vamos Granada (Podemos) totalling 11 councilors as well. The IU councilor voted for himself. PP gets the mayoralty on having been the list with the most votes in the elections.

José María González (Podemos) replaces Teófila Martínez (PP) as Mayor of Cádiz with the support of PSOE ad IU.

Gabriel Cruz (PSOE) elected Mayor of Huelva.

José Enrique Fernández Moya (PP) elected Mayor of Jaén; C's councilors abstained.

In Marbella José Bernal (PSOE) replaces Ángeles Muñoz (PP) in the mayoralty. PP fell short from a majority by only one seat. Bernal was supported by the rest of forces represented in the City Hall (PSOE, IU, Podemos and independents).

Aragon:

Criminal lawyer Pedro Santisteve (Zaragoza en Común) was proclaimed Mayor of Zaragoza with the support of PSOE and the centre-left regionalist CHA. PSOE gets the mayoralty of Huesca, while PP holds Teruel.

Asturias:

Carmen Moriyon (FAC) was proclaimed Mayor of Gijón without a majority. PSOE and the Podemos outfit Xixón Sí Puede (XSP) failed to reach an agreement in that city. As said before, XSP voted in assembly not supporting the socialists.

The big surprise was the proclamation of Wenceslao López (PSOE) as Mayor of Oviedo. Socialists only placed third behind PP and Somos Oviedo (Podemos). The Podemos outfit led by Ana Taboada, PSOE and IU reached a previous agreement to govern. However, PSOE withdrew support to Taboada in retaliation for events in Gijón. Both Podemos and IU decided to back unilaterally the PSOE candidate in order to prevent that PP holds the mayoralty.

Balearic Islands:

PSOE and the eco-nationalist MÉS will replace each other in the mayoralty of Palma de Mallorca. The socialist candidate was elected with the support of MÉS and Som Palma (Podemos) and will govern until 2017. MÉS will get the mayoralty in the 2017-2019 period. This kind of agreements is known in Spain as "time sharing mayoralties". PSOE gets the mayoralty of Eivissa (the official name of Ibiza).

Canaries:

Augusto Hidalgo (PSOE) proclaimed Mayor of Las Palmas with the support of the local Podemos outfit and the centre-left regionalist New Canaries. The Canary Coalition (CC) holds the mayoralty of Santa Cruz the Tenerife with the support of PP. Socialists didn't like that move, because CC and PSOE are negotiating a coalition government in the Canary Islands and the deal includes supporting each other's lists in the different municipalities.

Cantabria:

Ïñigo de la Serna (PP) reelected Mayor of Santander without a majority.

Castile-La Mancha:

PSOE gets the mayoralties in Toledo and Ciudad Real. PP holds Albacete, Cuenca and Guadalajara.

Castile and León:

Óscar Puente (PSOE) proclaimed Mayor of Valladolid with the support of IU and Podemos. Francisco Guarido (IU) was elected Mayor of Zamora with the support of PSOE; Zamora will be the only provincial capital governed by IU. PP holds Salamanca, Burgos, León and Palencia. PSOE holds Soria with a majority and gets Segovia in minority.

Extremadura:

PP holds the two provincial capitals: Cáceres and Badajoz. Mérida, the regional capital, goes to PSOE.

Galicia:

Xulio Ferreiro, candidate of the Marea Atlántica ("Atlantic Tide", includes the AGE and Podemos), was proclaimed Mayor of A Coruña with the support of PSOE, although Ferreiro wants to govern in minority.

Martiño Noriega (Compostela Aberta) will govern in Santiago de Compostela , the regional capital). Ferrol will be governed by another "popular unity list".

Abel Caballero (PSOE) will govern in Vigo with a comfortable majority. In Lugo Lara Méndez (PSOE) was proclaimed mayor. Méndez was the number two in the list and replaced the top candidate José López Orozco, who was vetoed by leftist forces. Miguel Anxo Fernández Lores (BNG) holds the mayoralty in Pontevedra. PP gets the mayoralty of Ourense in minority, due to the  lack of an alternative majority.

Region of Murcia:

José Ballesta (PP) elected Mayor of Murcia without a majority.

Independent José López elected Mayor of Cartagena with the support of PSOE. López will be replaced by socialist candidate Ana Belén Castejón in 2017. Another "time sharing agreement". PP, C's and the Podemos local outfit will be in the opposition.

La Rioja:

PP holds Logroño without a majority.

Navarre:

Joseba Asirón (EH Bildu) proclaimed Mayor of Pamplona with the support of Geroa Bai (independents and PNV), Aranzadi (Podemos) and IU.

Basque Country:

Juan Mari Aburto (PNV) elected Mayor of Bilbao with the support of PSOE.

Eneko Goia (PNV) elected Mayor of San Sebastián without a majority.

Gorka Urtaran (PNV) elected Mayor of Vitoria with the support of EH Bildu, Podemos and IU-Equo. PNV and PSOE had a previous agreement extended to all the Basque Country, in order to support each party's best placed candidates in the municipalities. However, a PNV councilor didn't support the socialist candidate in Andoain (a town in Gipuzkoa) allowing the proclamation of a Bildu mayor. PSOE withdrew support in Vitoria as retaliation. PNV was the third party behind PP and EH Bildu in the local elections. The Bildu support is not the result of a formal agreement, they voted for the PNV candidate to oust PP's Javier Maroto from the mayoralty.  

PP holds the autonomous city of Ceuta (majority), Opening session was suspended in Melilla due to denounces of alleged fraud in mail vote. PP will likely hold.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 14, 2015, 02:00:02 am
Valencia 2015: leading party by municipality in the regional elections.

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The Valencian elections provided the most entertaining results by far. Let's say the Comunidad Valenciana or País Valencià is a diverse region. The end of PP hegemony has brought a fragmented but fascinating landscape.  I made a table with the results in the 20 most populous municipalities here:

https://saintbrendansisland.wordpress.com/2015/06/14/eleccions-a-les-corts-valencianes-2015/


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on June 28, 2015, 09:22:10 am
I missed this, but news from Catalonia: The CiU alliance has broken down after 37 years due to the independence issue (UDC opposes independence).


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on June 28, 2015, 11:02:43 am
I missed this, but news from Catalonia: The CiU alliance has broken down after 37 years due to the independence issue (UDC opposes independence).

Yes, that happened past week. Sorry for not updating, but it'd be good that someone was paying attention. Thank you for mentioning the issue, CrabCake.

"The end of an era: Catalan nationalist bloc CiU breaks up after 37 years"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/06/18/inenglish/1434637443_661020.html

Quote
In a historical, game-changing decision for Catalan politics, the two parties that make up Convergence and Union (CiU) are going their separate ways after 37 years of nearly uninterrupted joint rule in the region (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on July 03, 2015, 08:19:58 am
The last poll conducted by CEO in Catalonia shows a downward trend in support to independence.  According to that survey 50% would vote "no" in an eventual referendum, while 42.9% would vote "yes" to independence. With regard to the March survey released by the same sociological institute, dependent on Catalan government, "yes" is 1.2% down and "no" increases 2%. On the elections scheduled in September, 58.1% will decide voting position depending on party proposals to confront the crisis, while 21.1% will decide depending on the relationship between Catalonia and Spain. Answers reflect that Artur Mas pretension to call elections as a plebiscite on independence is not getting through. The poll doesn't provide a vote estimation for the next Catalan elections because, according to CEO' s chief Jordi Arguelaguer, the break down of CiU and the reconfiguration in the left make it impossible. ICV and Podemos agreed recently running a join list in September (Joan Coscubiela, ICV deputy in the Spanish Congress, will stand as pre-candidate), as well Pablo Iglesias stated the alliance will work in the next general election.

Link to CEO poll (there's an abstract in English):

http://ceo.gencat.cat/ceop/AppJava/pages/home/fitxaEstudi.html?colId=5468&lastTitle=Bar%F2metre+d%27Opini%F3+Pol%EDtica+%28BOP%29.+2a+onada+2015

CEO released the "direct vote intention", that is raw polling data without further elaboration. In the Catalan elections CiU and ERC are tied at 13.3%, while Podemos comes third at 10.8%. As for the general election, Podemos comes first (18.1%) followed by ERC (13%), PSC (11%) and CiU (10.8%). The poll doesn't ask for CDC and UDC separately, nor asks for the join list between Podemos and ICV.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on July 07, 2015, 03:55:17 pm
Btw Velasco, has the indirect portion of the Senate been elected by the regions yet? Or is that done at some later date?

PP doing fairly well in current polls. A hypothetical PP-C coalition could have a healthy majority. Greek effect?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on July 18, 2015, 06:14:28 pm
Btw Velasco, has the indirect portion of the Senate been elected by the regions yet? Or is that done at some later date?

The Spanish Senate is an irrelevant legislative body and I usually don't pay too much attention. I checked the list of members returned by regions in the Spanish Senate website. The new Andalusian Parliament (elected in March 2015) has appointed 9 senators (PSOE 5, PP 3, Podemos 1)  Apparently the regions which held elections in May haven't elected their representatives. Probably they will be appointed in the next session of the respective regional legislatures, beginning in September.

PP doing fairly well in current polls. A hypothetical PP-C coalition could have a healthy majority. Greek effect?

I haven't been following last polls in detail. Which ones predict a PP-C's majority?

On average, I think the trend doesn't point to a result like that. I'm not sure if Greece will have an impact in the Spanish election (I tend to think that it'd be very limited, in any case).

The Wikipedia poll summary as of July 2015 says that PP is approx. at 26%, PSOE 23%, Podemos 20% and C's around 13%. The Electograph "poll of polls" gives the following result: PP 27.6%, PSOE 24.4%, Podemos 18.9%, C's 12.5%, IU 3.6%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Spanish_general_election,_2015#National

http://www.electograph.com/p/electograph-poll-of-polls.html

More important will be the repercussion of the next parliamentary election in Catalonia.

CDC (the Artur Mas party), ERC, pro-independence associations and elements of the 'civil society' will assemble a joint list. In case the joint independence list wins the election, which is very likely, the different parties and associations are committed to proclaim independence unilaterally within a period of 6 or 8 months. Probably that declaration of independence will have the support of the left-wing CUP in the next Parliament of Catalonia. The top candidate will be Raül Romeva, formerly in ICV and MEP until 2014. The former spokeswoman of the Catalan National Assembly (ANC) Carme Forcadell and Muriel Casals ( from Òmnium Cultural) will be the numbers two and three of that list. Artur Mas will be placed in the fourth place, but he's actually the candidate to be the head of the government. ERC leader Oriol Junqueras will be the number five.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/15/inenglish/1436951774_704766.html

Quote
If secessionist parties win the Catalan regional elections scheduled for September 27, independence could be formally declared six to eight months later.

That is part of the deal that was reached this week by Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) and the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), which have decided to run together on a joint pro-sovereignty ticket.

If such a moment arrives, it will mark a “disconnect” or “breaking point” with Spain, according to sources familiar with the negotiation (...)

Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy stated that "there will be no Catalan independence"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/16/inenglish/1437061423_262494.html

Quote
Spain’s prime minister is asking Catalan leader Artur Mas for “prudence, sound judgment, moderation and common sense” in connection with regional elections scheduled for September 27.

“There will be no Catalan independence, and Catalonia is not going to leave Spain or Europe, even though this is what’s being offered to citizens there right now,” said Mariano Rajoy, of the center-right Popular Party (PP) (...)

At this point everything points to the continuation of the paralysis until the next Spanish election takes place and a new administration takes office earlier next year.

You can check last polls for the Catalan elections here:

http://www.electograph.com/search/label/A_Cat

Feedback/La Vanguardia (July 2015)

CDC 22% (32-34 seats), Catalunya, sí que es pot (CSP= Podemos+ ICV+EUiA) 16.5% (20-22), C's 16% (22), ERC 15% (22), PSC 9.6% (13), PP 7.3% (9-10), CUP 7% (9-10), UDC 4.2% (3-6).

*A joint list including all pro-independence forces would get 46.7%, according to Feedback. However, that assumption is not realistic because the CUP will run in its own.

GAPS / Òmnium Cultural (July 2015)

Joint list (CDC-ERC) 32% (52 seats), CSP 20% (26), C's 16% (20), PSC 9% (12), PP 9% (12), CUP 8% (10), UDC 4% (3).

GESOP/El Periódico (June 2015)

CDC 22.4% (33-35 seats), Podemos+ICV+EUiA+Procés Constituent 22.4% (30-31), C's 14.9% (19-20), ERC 12.9% (19-20), CUP 8.2% (11-12), PSC 7% (8-9), PP 6% (6-7), UDC 4.6% (6-7)


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: FredLindq on July 19, 2015, 07:44:32 am
Could somone update me on the election of new regional presidents!


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on July 19, 2015, 11:45:57 am
OK, let's try a brief summary of the new regional governments.

Aragon:: Javier Lambán (PSOE) was elected Premier with the support of Podemos, the Aragonese Union (CHA) and IU, totalling 35 votes. PP, C's and the Aragonese Party (PAR) voted against the investiture, totalling 32 votes. Notably, C's spokeswoman Susana Gaspar deemed the deal between leftist forces in the regional legislature as a "pact with the Devil" The negotiation was difficult because Pablo Echenique (Podemos) felt vindicated to be premier, given that the purple party came only 1% behind the socialists in the regional election. Lambán heads a minority government which has 9 ministers (8 from PSOE and 1 from CHA). The new administration needs the support of Podemos and IU to pass legislation.

Asturias: Javier Fernández (PSOE), incumbent since 2012, is seeking to continue as regional premier. A deal between PSOE and Podemos was the only option for Fernández to get a majority in the investiture. However, the socialists and the purple party have a poor relationship in the region. Podemos rejected to vote for the socialist candidate for Mayor of Gijón, because of his involvement in suspected irregularities in the management of the port of El Musel. Gijón is the most populated city in the region; the mayoralty was retained by the right-wing regionalist FAC in minority. PSOE reached an agreement with the IU regional branch led by Gaspar Llamazares, which was approved by the IU membership today. The deal doesn't imply a coalition government; both parties agreed on specific measures (electoral reform, transparency law and a commission of inquiry on El Musel). PSOE (14) and IU (5) fall short from a majority in the 45 member regional legislature. Javier Fernández could be elected premier in a second vote, providing that Podemos (9) and C's (3) abstain. Rival candidate Mercedes Fernández (PP) only counts with the support of her party (11 seats) and Foro Asturias (FAC, 3 seats). The first investiture vote will take place this upcoming week.  

Balearic Islands: Francina Armengol (PSOE) was elected Premier with the support of Podemos and MÉS, a left-wing catalanist party. Podemos didn't join the regional government, which is comprised by 11 members from PSOE and MÉS. PSOE holds the premiership and gets 6 cabinet members, while MÉS gets 4 cabinet members including Deputy Premier Biel Barceló.

Canary Islands: Fernando Clavijo (CC) heads a coalition government with PSOE. CC gets the premiership and 6 cabinet members; PSOE gets 4 cabinet members including Deputy Premier Patricia Hernández. PSOE holds the presidency of the regional parliament.

Cantabria: Miguel Ángel Revilla of the Cantabria Regionalist Party (PRC) was elected Premier with the support of PSOE and the abstention of Podemos. The regional coalition government has 9 members: PRC gets the premiership and 4 cabinet members, PSOE gets 4 cabinet members including Deputy Premier Eva Díaz Tezanos.

Castile and León: Juan Vicente Herrera (PP) was reelected Premier in a second vote with the support of his party (42 seats) and the abstention of C's (5). PSOE (25), Podemos (10), IU (1) and the León regionalist UPyL (1) voted against the investiture. PP will govern in minority, trying to reach agreements on specific measures with C's in order to pass legislation.

Castile-La Mancha: Emiliano García-Page (PSOE) was elected Premier with the support of his party (15 seats) and Podemos (2). PP (16) voted against the investiture. García-Page, a former Mayor of Toledo, will govern in minority replacing María Dolores de Cospedal, the powerful and controversial woman who remains as secretary general of PP.

Extremadura: Guillermo Fernández Vara (PSOE) was proclaimed Premier with the support of his party (30 seats) and Podemos (6). PP (28) and C's (1) abstained. In the investiture, the Podemos spokesman said that Fernández Vara's discourse was increasingly resembling theirs, stating that Podemos will support the new minority government as long as it's committed with "the defence of the civil rights against the austerity policy" of the Spanish government. Fernández Vara promised that Extremadura will be the first region "free of evictions".

Madrid: Cristina Cifuentes (PP) was elected Premier on June 24 with the support of her party (48 seats) and C's (17). PSOE (37) and Podemos (27) voted against. Cifuentes will govern in minority and C's spokesman Ignacio Aguado warned her that they will be vigilant on the implementation of the 76 point agreement signed between the blue and the orange parties.

Murcia: Pedro Antonio Sánchez (PP) was elected Premier with the support of his party (26 seats) and C's (4). PSOE (13) and Podemos (6) voted against the investiture. PP and C's reached an agreement similar to that in Madrid. The newly elected premier has to face a lawsuit on alleged faults including prevarication, embezzlemen of public funds, fraud against administration and falsification of public documents. Mr Sánchez promised to resign in case he's formally charged.

Navarre: Uxue Barkos (Geroa Bai, independent) will be elected Premier in the investiture session that will take place tomorrow morning. Geroa Bai, EH Bildu, Podemos and IU signed a deal on past Friday. According to the signatories, the agreement has a "historical value" and "lays the foundations for change". The new government will have 2 deputy premiers: Manu Ayerdi (Geroa Bai, PNV) will assume the management of economic policies and independent Miguel Laparra, an university professor, will be in charge of social policies. The government will have 9 cabinet members, chosen by Mrs Barkos between the candidates proposed by the different parties. The appointment of María José Beaumont (EH Bildu) with a portfolio including Interior has created controversy, given past links between the abertzale left and ETA.

The Navarrese mess, probably one of my last contributions here:

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La Rioja: Ignacio Ceniceros (PP) failed to pass the first investiture vote which took place on July 1, but was elected in a second vote on July 3 without a majority. Ceniceros was supported by his party, while C's regional parliamentarians abstained.

Valencia: Ximo Puig (PSOE) was elected Premier with the support of Compromís and Podemos and took office on June 27. The new regional government is comprised by the Premier, a Deputy Premier (Mónica Oltra, Compromís) and 8 cabinet members (3 PSOE, 3 Compromís and 2 independents).


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: RodPresident on July 20, 2015, 05:17:10 am
Any chance if CSP gets a good second place or first of getting to form government with support of PSC, CUP and C's?


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - General election in November or December
Post by: Thomas from NJ on July 20, 2015, 07:53:45 pm
I have changed the thread title, since the local and regional elections of May 24th have obviously already taken place.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Local and regional elections on May 24th
Post by: Velasco on July 21, 2015, 02:09:15 am
Any chance if CSP gets a good second place or first of getting to form government with support of PSC, CUP and C's?

It's totally impossible to see the CUP siding with C's and PSC. Another question would be that CSP had chances of placing first as BComú did in Barcelona, but that is not going to happen. The joint CDC-ERC list*, that is going to be called "Juntos por el Sí" (something like "Together for Yes"), is going to win in all likelihood and Artur Mas will remain as premier, but probably the sovereignist ticket will fall short from a majority. However, there will be a likely pro-independence majority in the next Catalan Parliament adding the CUP. In order to give some legitimacy to an unilateral declaration of independence, it would be important that the joint list and the CUP add a majority of the popular vote (and maybe they will fall short). The CSP is in favour of a referendum, as well the UDC, but I don't see the left and the party of Duran i Lleida supporting the projects of Artur Mas. C's, PSC and PP are against to call a referendum.

*Former FC Barcelona coach Pep Guardiola will run in the "Together" ticket placing in the last place of the list:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/20/inenglish/1437408521_513427.html

Quote
Former Barcelona soccer coach Pep Guardiola is to run in the Catalan regional election on September 27 on premier Artur Mas’s joint pro-sovereignty ticket.

While Guardiola, who is now in China with his current club Bayern Munich, has no intention of taking up a seat in the regional parliament if his group is victorious at the polls, he felt that adding his name to the list of candidates would provide a clear gesture of support for Catalan independence (...)

I have changed the thread title, since the local and regional elections of May 24th have obviously already taken place.

OK, well done. You will have to decide where to place the Catalan elections scheduled in September: here or in a single thread.




Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Catalan elections in September
Post by: Thomas from NJ on July 21, 2015, 10:31:56 am
I changed the title again. When the Catalan elections are over, then I'll change it so it mentions the general election.


Title: Re: Spanish elections of 2015 - Catalan elections in September
Post by: politicus on July 21, 2015, 10:46:46 am
Maybe you could just call it Spanish Elections and Politics like the general discussion threads about German, Italian, Dutch, Austrian and Swiss politics, that way you wouldn't have to update the thread title.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Thomas from NJ on July 21, 2015, 10:50:37 am
Yeah, that's a good idea.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 22, 2015, 05:44:55 am
More fun from Catalonia.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/21/inenglish/1437471078_289683.html

Quote
The leaders of the pro-sovereignty bloc that hopes to win the Catalan regional election on September 27 warned that they are ready to declare independence immediately after the ballot if Madrid tries to place any legal hurdles in their way.

Regional premier Artur Mas, who is leading the secession drive, had originally talked about a six-to-eight-month period before declaring independence following his bloc’s hypothetical victory in the regional election.

Although voters are officially just electing the next Catalan premier, Mas and his team are presenting it as a de facto referendum on independence. A bid to hold a real referendum last year was blocked by the central government (...)

Now, pro-independence forces have regrouped into a bloc called Junts pel sí (Together for Yes) comprising two political parties – Mas’s Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) and Oriol Junqueras’s Catalan Republican Left (ERC) – and civic associations. Together, they hope to inspire renewed support for the secession bid following several months of dwindling support in opinion surveys.

But Catalan nationalism is deeply divided over the issue of independence. On Monday, Josep Antoni Duran Lleida, a leading figure of Democratic Union of Catalonia (UDC), which was CDC’s partner in government for nearly 37 years as CiU, said that Artur Mas is letting himself get “swept away by ERC and secessionist entities.”

“They’ve put us in a pickle and now we have to get out of it without flouting the law,” said Duran, who defended the need for dialogue and rejected the unilateral declaration of independence championed by Mas.

His UDC party will run as an alternative to the secessionist bloc after CiU broke up last month over the issue.

The Junts pel si bloc was officially presented on Monday at the Catalan History Museum in Barcelona, where top candidate Raül Romeva, a former eco-socialist representative in the European Parliament, warned that they are quite earnest about declaring independence.

“We are completely serious about this, and everyone needs to understand that we’re going to do it,” he said. “We’ve tried every other way but they didn’t let us. This is the chance to do what we couldn’t do on November 9 and obtain a democratic mandate.”

Despite their high profile, Mas and Junqueras are running fourth and fifth on the Junts pel sí list and leaving two of the three top spots to the former heads of ANC and Òmnium Cultural, two pro-independence civic associations.

By bringing this social element to the Junts pel si bloc, its leaders hope to contain the leftist coalition of four parties, including Podemos, which are running in the election under the name Catalunya sí que es pot (loosely, Catalonia, yes we can).

Steps toward the declaration of independence:

Quote
At the presentation, bloc leaders talked about the steps they want to take if they secure an absolute majority on September 27 – even if those steps clearly clash with the Spanish Constitution.

The first step, said Romeva, would be for the Catalan parliament to declare the beginning of the secession process. After that, the legislature would give the executive the power to activate “state structures.” The third step would be to draft a Catalan Constitution “from the bottom up, with citizen participation,” and after voting on it, there would be a formal declaration of independence. Within 18 months, the government would dissolve and new constituent elections called.

This would be the beginning of what secessionist leaders call the “disconnect” with Spain. “We are aware of the risks involved and also of the opportunities,” said Romeva. “They won’t make it easy for us."

But if Spain blocks the process, there will be an immediate declaration of independence.

“In the event that the Spanish state, through political and or legal decisions, should block Catalonia’s self-government, the [Catalan] government and parliament will proceed to proclaim independence and approve the judiciary transitional law,” said Romeva.

Last week, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said there would “be no Catalan independence, and Catalonia is not going to leave Spain or Europe, even though this is what’s being offered to citizens there right now.”


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: politicus on July 22, 2015, 05:50:10 am
What would the Spanish government do if Catalonia actually issued a UDI?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on July 22, 2015, 06:06:41 am
Is there any possibility that govt/His Majesty King of Spain will use army to secure Catalonia and beat up potential traitors?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on July 22, 2015, 06:10:02 am
Do the ERC and CUP want a greater Catalonia (with the Balearics, Valencia etc) or do they recognise that as impronable.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on July 22, 2015, 06:20:38 am
The best solution is to divide Spain into Aragon and Castile in permanent personal union.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 22, 2015, 09:59:12 am
What would the Spanish government do if Catalonia actually issued a UDI?

Probably the central government will refer resolutions adopted by the Parliament of Catalonia, in order to implement the "road map" to independence, to the Spanish Constitutional Court. This has been the modus operandi of the Rajoy administration to date. But the leaders of the secessionist bloc now threaten with issuing the UDI immediately, in case the Spanish government puts obstacles. At this point, we enter into uncharted territory. Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution says that if a region is not abiding its obligations under the existing legal framework, the central government can take the "necessary measures" to enforce said obligations. Such "measures" would be implemented  after lodging a complaint to the regional premier and, in case the request is not granted, they need the approval of the Spanish Senate. The problem is that article has never been implemented and "measures" are not developed in the text. Jurists don't coincide in the interpretation of the article, but say the Spanish government should only intervene as a last resort and advocate for the principle of minimum intervention. The consequences of a suspension of the regional autonomy, for instance, are totally unpredictable. A professor of constitutional law says that implementing article 155 would be the end of the current model of regional autonomy.

Do the ERC and CUP want a greater Catalonia (with the Balearics, Valencia etc) or do they recognise that as impronable.

On paper, both want the Països Catalans ("Catalan Countries"). In practice, it's possible that they see the Greater Catalonia as a long term project. It's something like Euskal Herria (the union of Euskadi, Navarre and the French Basque Country).

The best solution is to divide Spain into Aragon and Castile in permanent personal union.

Spain was a personal union of crowns under the Hapsburgs. It was a very disfunctional model. By 1640 revolts erupted in Portugal, Andalusia and Catalonia. Catalans call the uprising against the minister of Felipe IV (the Count-Duke of Olivares) Guerra dels Segadors and the Catalan anthem refers to those events. For sure Felipe VI doesn't want a repetition of history, so I don't think he's going to send the Army.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_Revolt

Btw, Felipe VI and Artur Mas met recently. According to Miguel Ángel Revilla, premier of Cantabria, the King told him that the attitude of Artur Mas is "irreconcilable". No room for negotiation, apparently.   


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on July 22, 2015, 10:17:00 am
That is pretty sad that rampaging nationalism is going to win again.
Sorry for a little bit offtop but I was just curious if this is even possible for king to use army in case of rebellion.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 22, 2015, 12:54:22 pm
Sorry, but the king cannot use the army. He's the supreme commander of the armed forces, but Spain is a constitutional monarchy and that title is merely symbolic: the Spanish government holds the executive power. On the other hand, sending the army would be the surest way to lose Catalonia. After the revolt in the XVII century there was a complicated conflict involving France and several battles, but Catalonia returned to Spain basically through negotiation... except the Roussillon and part of the Cerdagne, a patch of the Catalan Countries which was lost to the French neighbours.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on July 22, 2015, 01:16:37 pm
Yes, I don't think Artur Mas will go the way of poor Lluis Companys


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 22, 2015, 01:45:45 pm
There's an estimation for the Parliament of Catalonia released by Público.

Junts pel Sí (CDC+ERC) 39.2% 59 (-3)* seats

Catalunya Sí que es Pot (Podem+ICV+EUiA) 17% 23 (+10) seats

Ciutadans (C's) 15.7% 21 (+12) seats

PSC 7.6% 10 (-10) seats

CUP 7.2% 10 (+7) seats

PP 6.7% 9 (-10) seats

UDC 3.6% 3 (-6) seats

*Currently CDC 37, ERC 21 and DC 4. The latter (Democràcia Catalana: "Catalan Democracy") is a splinter of the UDC

The secessionist bloc (Junts pel Sí+CUP) adds 46.4% of the vote and 69 seats (majority 68). The anti-secessionist parties (C's, PSC and PP) add 30% of the vote and 40 seats. The "Third Way" parties (CSP, UDC) 20.6% and 26 seats.

In other news, the map of regional governments is already completed. Socialist Javier Fernández was elected premier of Asturias in a third vote. Uxue Barkos was proclaimed premier of Navarre.  



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on July 22, 2015, 02:44:25 pm
Sorry, but the king cannot use the army. He's the supreme commander of the armed forces, but Spain is a constitutional monarchy and that title is merely symbolic: the Spanish government holds the executive power. On the other hand, sending the army would be the surest way to lose Catalonia. After the revolt in the XVII century there was a complicated conflict involving France and several battles, but Catalonia returned to Spain basically through negotiation... except the Roussillon and part of the Cerdagne, a patch of the Catalan Countries which was lost to the French neighbours.


Thanks for answer. I thought that at least in case of military king have anything to say.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 23, 2015, 11:22:10 am
King Felipe VI spoke before a group of newly appointed judges in Barcelona, stating that respect for the law is "unavoidable" in a democratic regime. Premier Artur Mas attended the event, but he didn't get the hint.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/23/inenglish/1437659569_325845.html

Quote
“For the judiciary, as for all other state institutions, respect for the law is not, nor should it ever be, a mere formality or an alternative,” he said. “At its deepest level, respecting the law is a source of legitimacy and an unavoidable requirement for democratic coexistence in peace and freedom.”

Raül Romeva, the top candidate of the "Together for Yes" ticket, states the agreement reached between CDC, ERC and civic associations didn't make explicit that Artur Mas will be the head of a "national concentration" government that proclaims the independence of Catalonia. CDC officials denied that claim; according to deputy premier Neus Munté everything is spoken and Mas will continue exercising a leading role in the secessionist process at the head of the government. 

The Guardia Civil arrested three members of the Sumarrocas, an important business family linked to the Jordi Pujol clan, this morning in Barcelona. They are charged with the payment of illegal commissions to the mayor of Torredembarra (a coastal town in Tarragona province) of the Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC). The judge is investigating offences against the public administration, organised criminal group and money laundering. Joaquín Sumarroca, the head of the Sumarroca clan, was co-founder of the CDC together with Jordi Pujol. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mynheer Peeperkorn on July 23, 2015, 11:25:13 pm
PODEMOS collapsing according to this poll.

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http://www.abc.es/espana/20150719/abci-ciudadanos-diputados-201507181850.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: rob in cal on July 24, 2015, 12:54:27 am
Any ideas on what type of government would take over on this kind of result (the July poll).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Diouf on July 24, 2015, 05:07:27 am
It seems like the polls still disagree about the faith of Podemos. TNS-Demoscopia's two July polls have had them at 19.1 and 18.6%, whereas this GAD3 poll has them on 15.0% and Celeste-Tel has them on 13.1%. In addition, it must be quite hard to translate the percentages into votes. A 1 or 2 point percentage difference could potentially make a whole lot of difference in relation to the seats since seats are not proportional on the national level.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on July 24, 2015, 05:51:19 am
Wait, are Convergence and Union still running in the general?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: politicus on July 24, 2015, 06:24:30 am
Wait, are Convergence and Union still running in the general?

Why wouldn't they? SNP runs for the Commons.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on July 24, 2015, 07:00:06 am
Wait, are Convergence and Union still running in the general?

Why wouldn't they? SNP runs for the Commons.

In Catalonia, CiU have split into their component parts over the issue of Catalan Independence. The 'C' part is running on the joint nationalist issue in the election this September while the 'U' part is running on its own.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Simfan34 on July 24, 2015, 08:18:48 am
Any ideas on what type of government would take over on this kind of result (the July poll).

PP+Cs+CUP+CC+others?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 24, 2015, 10:48:38 am
It seems like the polls still disagree about the faith of Podemos. TNS-Demoscopia's two July polls have had them at 19.1 and 18.6%, whereas this GAD3 poll has them on 15.0% and Celeste-Tel has them on 13.1%. In addition, it must be quite hard to translate the percentages into votes. A 1 or 2 point percentage difference could potentially make a whole lot of difference in relation to the seats since seats are not proportional on the national level.

It's important to watch at the average polling. GAD3 and Celeste-Tel are usually underestimating Podemos, whereas Metroscopia and others tend to overestimate new parties like C's. On average Podemos is approx. at 18%. Seat allocation is only approximate because, as you say, it's hard to translate percentages into seats. Spain has 52 constituencies, corresponding to the provinces and the two autonomous cities. Most of provinces elect few seats and allocation is not proportional to vote share. On the one hand, the big parties (traditionally PP and PSOE) benefit from the system. On the other hand, peripheral nationalists and regionalist parties are relatively best represented than third national forces, because the support of the first is concentrated in a few provinces.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on July 24, 2015, 12:14:42 pm
A unilateral Catatalan withdrawal would probably be a boon (electorally) to the PP, IMO.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 24, 2015, 12:46:28 pm
I don't know. A good performance in Catalonia might boost Podemos and C's as well. It's hard to predict. By the way, Catalunya Sí es Pot has already a candidate. No time to go into details now. On the other hand, PP leader in Catalonia Alicia Sánchez-Camacho is about to leave and the Rajoy's party lacks a candidate right now. Some rumours point to former mayor of Badalona, the controversial Xavier García Albiol. I have a very  low opinion of xenophobes, so I hope PP's Supreme Head picks another candidate.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 25, 2015, 10:58:16 am
Electograph "poll of polls" as of July 20:

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http://www.electograph.com/p/electograph-poll-of-polls.html

Metroscopia poll released today by El País

PSOE 23.5%, PP 23.1%, Podemos 18.1%, C's 16%, IU 5.6%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 25, 2015, 11:03:15 am
Strange war on royal portraits in the Barcelona City Hall.

Chapter 1: Barcelona City Council removes bust of King Juan Carlos from chamber

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/24/inenglish/1437722628_871968.html

Quote
A bust of former Spanish King Juan Carlos I was removed from the Barcelona City Council chamber on Thursday, as part of a review of iconography of the monarchy in the city. The initiative has come from the new mayor of the Catalan capital, former social activist Ada Colau.

“There is an inflated symbolism relating to the monarchy, which is in contrast to the under-representation of other citizen traditions that are more appropriate in this city,” explained the deputy mayor, Gerardo Pisarello, and the councilor in charge of Historical Memory affairs, Xavier Domènech. The pair also announced on Thursday a study to evaluate changes to other elements relating to the monarchy, both in terms of municipal buildings and place names (...)

Chapter 2: PP hangs King Felipe’s portrait in Barcelona City Council chamber

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/24/inenglish/1437733354_176896.html

Quote
A second chapter was written on Friday in a growing row over the presence of images of the Spanish royal family inside Barcelona’s City Council.

A day after new mayor Ada Colau, of the leftist bloc BComú, ordered a bust of former King Juan Carlos I taken down from the chamber in front of television cameras, members of the conservative Popular Party (PP) walked in with a portrait of the current monarch, Felipe VI, and placed it in the exact same spot where the bust once rested.

“After yesterday’s mockery of the monarchy, we’ve placed this image here in order to comply with the law. Colau no longer has the excuse that she doesn’t have a portrait handy,” said Alberto Fernández Díaz, the PP leader in the Catalan capital (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Mynheer Peeperkorn on July 25, 2015, 08:50:13 pm


PSOE 23.5%, PP 23.1%, Podemos 18.1%, C's 16%, IU 5.6%

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Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on July 26, 2015, 04:17:53 am
Ciudadanos fulmina en dos meses la ley electoral murciana que PP y PSOE no cambiaron en 28 años (http://vozpopuli.com/actualidad/65831-ciudadanos-fulmina-en-dos-meses-la-ley-electoral-murciana-que-pp-y-psoe-no-cambiaron-en-28-anos)

So, C's, alongside with Podemos and the PSOE have forced the PP in Murcia to join in reforming the previous 1987 electoral law, replacing the 5 constituencies with a 5% threshold with a single one with a 3% one, hence ensuring greater representativeness. Interesting how easy it was to do, although it is a pity it's still closed list, but something is something. Hopefully other regions will follow suit.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 26, 2015, 08:47:12 am
La Vangardia releases a practical guide of parties, platforms, coalitions and entities currently existing in Catalonia. It's useful to navigate the Catalan labyrinth:

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20150726/54434042593/diccionario-entender-nuevo-mapa-politico-catalan-27s.html

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Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 27, 2015, 11:38:06 am
Most Catalans see a clash with Madrid inevitable, says Metroscopia:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/27/inenglish/1437987674_716070.html

Quote
With two months to go before Catalonia holds elections, residents of the northeastern region are increasingly convinced that a clash with Madrid is inevitable, a new opinion poll has revealed.

More than 60 percent of Catalans feel it is nearly impossible to prevent a confrontation with the rest of Spain at this point, according to a survey carried out by Metroscopia for EL PAÍS.

Both Catalans and citizens of other regions are similarly critical of the way Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and Catalan premier Artur Mas have been dealing with the situation.

Mas and his secessionist bloc, Junts pel sí, are casting the September 27 ballot as a de facto plebiscite on sovereignty. If his group wins, Mas says, it will provide justification for a unilateral declaration of independence from Spain.

Meanwhile, the conservative government in Madrid is watching for any signs of unlawfulness in the way the Catalan election is officially announced, in which case it would turn to the Constitutional Court for support.

Catalonia held an informal referendum on independence on November 9 of last year after the ruling nationalist bloc CiU failed in its bid to hold a legal one. While that vote yielded a majority support for secession, outside observers gave it little credibility because of the way it was organized.

Since then, secessionists have been seeking new ways to achieve their goal while ramping up their anti-Madrid rhetoric. In the process, however, the two nationalist parties that made up CiU – Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) and Democratic Union of Catalonia (UDC) – have broken up after 37 years of nearly uninterrupted rule in the region.

The reason for the divorce is the independence drive, which UDC does not support. Instead, this party will run on a program of dialogue to obtain greater devolved powers from Spain.

This rift in Catalan politics is also extensive to society, as the Metroscopia survey reflects. The poll, conducted between July 20 and 22, shows that 60 percent of Catalans have lost all hope of seeing a political deal that will avoid a rupture with Spain between now and September 27.

The survey also shows that 39 percent of Catalans feel secession would be bad for Catalonia, compared with 47 percent who see nothing but advantages.

Additionally, 54 percent of Catalans would like to see Spain become a federal state in which regions are freely associated but enjoy even greater devolved powers than they do now. Elsewhere in Spain, only 34 percent of respondents support this system, which is championed by the Socialist Party but has yet to be clearly defined.

Elsewhere in Spain, 55 percent of citizens still feel it is possible for politicians to find some common ground that will avoid a complete confrontation. And 73 percent agree that Catalan secession would be bad for Spain.


Outside Catalonia, 55 percent of respondents feel that Rajoy has not handled the challenge from the Catalan government properly, and has not been open to bilateral negotiations that could possibly have prevented the current escalation. But then, 59 percent of Catalans feel that Artur Mas is also making a mistake with his own secessionist strategy.

Artur Mas presented today his model of a tax agency for an independent Catalonia.

PSC leader and candidate Miquel Iceta states there won't be a suspension of the Catalan autonomy; in case the Parliament of Catalonia votes UDI, the Constitutional Court would set the declaration aside and that is all. Iceta is aware that Catalan socialists are going to perform badly. The PSC has faced several splits in its sovereignist wing which have approached ERC, a party that aspires to take the space of Catalanist socialdemocracy. Hence, PSC aspires to be "indispensable" to conform a leftist government. Even that sounds unrealistic in the present context. On her part, PP leader Alicia Sánchez-Camacho still doesn't make clear if she's going to repeat as candidate. Polls predict a downfall for the conservative party, with many voters switching to C's. The orange party runs with Inés Arrimadas as candidate; she's the Albert Rivera's lieutenant in the parliamentary group. The different forces in Catalunya Sí que és Pot (CSP) agreed to nominate Lluis Rabell as their candidate, after having failed to convince Arcadi Oliveres (who is economist and head of the Procés Constituent political movement). Lluis Rabell has been the head of the federation of neighbourhood associations in the city of Barcelona and supported actively the candidacy of Ada Colau in the local elections. An article in El País describes him as an "educated activist" born in El Raval, he was formerly in EUiA (the Catalan branch of IU), has a "trotskyst background", a "classical political culture" and is a long time activist. Rabell, who is translator and interpreter, has a "consensual profile, able to unblock tense and bitter meetings", says the article. The CSP candidate states that he's not independentist, but voted "yes-yes" in the proxy referendum held in November because he's angry at the Spanish government, which has treated Catalonia very badly in his opinion. Today in El Periódico, Lluis Rabell says that next election will be a choice between "amnesia" and "cleaning up", I guess in allusion to the multiple corruption scandals around Artur Mas' CDC and other parties. On the other hand, Procés Constituent rejected in an assembly joining the CSP coalition (comprised by Podemos and ICV-EUiA). As a result, economist Vicenç Navarro (who co-authored an economic draft for Podemos) left the movement, which seemed to be divided between the advocates of joining the CSP and a secessionist wing closer to the CUP. Finally, UDC candidate Ramon Espadaler promises to lead a "revolution of common sense" (seny in Catalan language), getting away from the secessionism of Artur Mas and the inmobilism of Mariano Rajoy. "Our prudence won't make us traitors and our patriotism won't make us imprudent", he said.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 27, 2015, 04:29:26 pm
General election poll released today.

TNS Demoscopia / Antena 3

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Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on July 27, 2015, 04:57:24 pm
It may be farfetched conclusion but I think that there is a place for multi-regional party which will be to the right from PP and serve as an eventual ally (Portuguese variant) for them.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: politicus on July 27, 2015, 05:02:04 pm
It may be farfetched conclusion but I think that there is a place for multi-regional party which will be to the right from PP and serve as an eventual ally (Portuguese variant) for them.

The right wing of PP is very right wing. Hard to see any space out there - unless you are thinking of a xenophobic populist party with anti-neoliberal/pseudo-leftist economic policies. Not sure how that combo would play in Spain, but it might work. Still, such a party would not be an easy ally for PP.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: politicus on July 27, 2015, 05:05:38 pm
Regarding the Portuguese comparison CDS-PP is a lot more moderate than the right wing of Spanish PP.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 27, 2015, 06:02:57 pm
It may be farfetched conclusion but I think that there is a place for multi-regional party which will be to the right from PP and serve as an eventual ally (Portuguese variant) for them.

The right wing of PP is very right wing. Hard to see any space out there - unless you are thinking of a xenophobic populist party with anti-neoliberal/pseudo-leftist economic policies. Not sure how that combo would play in Spain, but it might work. Still, such a party would not be an easy ally for PP.

PP actually had a split in its right wing called Vox Party, led by Santiago Abascal and former MEP Alejo Vidal Quadras. The latter failed to win a seat in the EP elections by a few thousand votes. Since then, Vox has failed miserably in subsequent local and regional elections. Vox chairman Santiago Abascal ran as top candidate for the Madrid Regional Assembly: the list got 1%. Ergo, there's no life outside PP for a hardcore right-winger. Also, Spanish far-right parties (Falange, Democracia Nacional, España 2000, etc) have been always a joke. Only Plataforma per Catalunya (PxC) had some success in the 2011 local elections, but now the support for the bunch founded by Josep Anglada has vanished. PxC is virtually disappeared in Catalonia and Anglada himself was expelled from the party due to "deficient" management. In fact, PxC was like his personal enterprise: Anglada managed local branches like franchises . Anglada is a former member of Fuerza Nueva with links to Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders. There's no room for a xenophobic far-right populist party in Spain, basically because xenophobic feelings are not widespread in the country. In other words, most of Spaniards don't see immigrants as the main source of troubles and don't blame them for the economic situation. Of course Spain is not free of xenophobia, but it's a localised phenomenon. We have examples of xenophobic mayors like Xavier García Albiol (PP), who governed Badalona between 2011 and 2015. The former PP mayor of Vitoria made some controversial statements bordering that feeling; as well in past local elections PP distributed some xenophobic leaflets in Barcelona. On the other hand, the anti-neoliberal discourse is monopolised by Podemos and IU, as well by other left-wing regional parties (CUP, Bildu, AGE in Galicia, etc) that are miles away from xenophobia.

The only possible ally for PP is actually C's, a party that is more 'liberal' and centrist than PP. It's already posted that C's has controversial stances (at least in this country) on the issue of granting healthcare benefits to irregular immigrants. They say it's unsustainable; PP took back medical cards for irregulars but later allowed them to receive emergency healthcare, making the orange party look radical. However, there's a difference between that and the rhetoric of Marine Le Pen. Both C's and the Vox Party are pro-EU.  


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 28, 2015, 12:46:33 pm
Alicia Sánchez-Camacho announced this morning thatXavier García Albiol has been nominated PP candidate in Catalonia. "García Albiol has proved his worth as Mayor of Badalona. He's a good person", said Sánchez-Camacho. As for the candidate, García Albiol said he represents "a project beyond ideologies" and asked for the cooperation of all Catalans because "we have a lot at stake on September 27".

Xavier García Albiol is aged 47 and is two meters high. Formerly he played in Juventut, a club of the Spanish basketball league located in Badalona. He became known in Spanish politics because of the harsh policies against immigrants he implemented as mayor. He has made very harsh statements against two communities in particular: Romanian Gypsies and Pakistani. According to him the Roma are "a plague that came here to commit crimes", while the Pakistani are characterised by their habit of eating bad meat. In this year's local campaign he promised "cleaning" Badalona, a town in metropolitan Barcelona populated by more than 200k people. Badalona has been historically a left-wing stronghold (PSUC in 1979, PSC between 1983 and 2011). García Albiol came first in the 2015 elections, but he was ousted from mayoralty by a pact between leftist parties. He was replaced by Dolors Sabater (Badalona en Comú), a teacher and social activist who was member of Òminium Cultural, an independentist association that promotes Catalan language and whose chairman Muriel Casals runs in the Together for Yes ticket.    


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 28, 2015, 03:24:00 pm
Sigma Dos / Tele Cinco

PP 28.8%, PSOE 24.2%, Podemos 20.3%, C's 11.1%, IU 4.2%

http://www.telecinco.es/informativos/nacional/Encuesta-Mediaset_Espana-Sigma_Dos-intencion_voto_julio_0_2026500444.html

The pollster is still asking for CiU, but don't take that into account. Convergence and Union is dead and buried.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on July 30, 2015, 12:35:08 pm
Euskobarómetro poll for the Basque Country (election scheduled next year):

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PNV 33.5%, EH Bildu 23.1%, Podemos 15.1%, PSE-EE / PSOE 14.1%, PP 8.1%, Others  5.7%

http://www.ehu.eus/documents/1457190/4342183/Estimacion_Mayo15.pdf


Journalist Antonio Baños has been elected to top the CUP-Crida Constituent list in the next Catalan elections. Baños is not a CUP activist, he's member of an independentist association called Súmate ("Join") comprised by Spanish-speaking people. The newly elected candidate promises three things: "Win", "Disobey" and "Build". Baños explained that they will disobey "to define the breaking point with the Spanish state and all the powers that have taken us under their force" and "to fight the fascism, racism and xenophobia that have came onto the campaign". He regrets the appointment of Xavier García Albiol as PP candidate, whom the CUP will fight "from the street". He also stated that they will "rebuild capitalist schemes" and "the connection between economy and production". "We will build the Països Catalans (Catalan Countries)", stressed Baños.

For sure Xavier García Albiol will introduce a factor of further polarisation in the Catalan campaign. I don't know if his appointment will succeed in halting the vote drain between PP and C's. On the one hand, Albiol is the PP politician in Catalonia with higher level of knowledge and he's the kind of xenophobe populist that performs well in the face-to-face. PP might be seeking former PxC voters in metropolitan Barcelona, a type prone to abstain in regional elections. On the other hand, the xenophobic drive of the PP in the local campaign in Catalonia worked badly outside Badalona. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 01, 2015, 02:54:49 am
Mr Mariano Rajoy reviews his tenure and sends a message to Catalan secessionists.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/31/inenglish/1438352284_257740.html

"Catalonia will never be independent in any way"

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“The government is going to keep a watchful eye to ensure the law is obeyed, and we will continue to defend the law. There won’t be any plebiscite vote just in the same way there was no independence referendum held, despite all the propaganda. No self-respecting country can allow the law to be broken just for political benefit,” (...)

Rajoy said that his government will not allow Catalans to be “deprived” of their Spanish citizenship or European Union membership.

At the same time, the prime minister warned of the possibility that the current political situation in Greece could send shock waves to Spain (...)

“Government leaders are here to solve problems, not create them,” he said in a blind reference to Alexis Tsipras’ Greek government, which Podemos has aligned itself with. “And one way of creating problems is when you make promises to people that are impossible to keep"

Spain has a bright economic future, providing that Spaniards make the correct choice:

Quote
“I want to point out that today things have improved and Spaniards can look forward to a more secure future with more optimism than ever,” said the prime minister, predicting that Spain will post the highest economic growth in the euro zone this year.

Even though Rajoy will raise pensions by 0.25 percent under next year’s budget plan, he said that more social security contributions are needed to help pay retirees, and that his government will continue with efforts to bring down the nearly 26 percent unemployment rate.

The Cabinet on Friday approved the projected 2016 budget, which also contains measures aimed at reducing the public deficit from the current 4.2 percent to 2.6 percent by the end of 2016.

But corruption stands in the way:

Quote
Now, as the prime minister closes out his term, the Rajoy administration is facing a new corruption scandal involving PP leaders in Madrid.

Reporters asked Rajoy about the revelations contained in the court report on the Púnica illegal kickbacks-for-contracts case, which has ensnared a group of top-ranking and mid-level PP officials, including former Madrid senior official Francisco Granados, who is being held in preventive custody.

This week’s revelations from court documents allege that public funds were used under the PP regional government of Ignacio González to “pay favors” to a computer expert to fill the internet with positive coverage about the premier’s administration.

Rajoy called the allegations “absolutely reproachable” and said “we would have preferred never to have  learned about them.”

“We have to try to ensure that these things never happen again,” he said.

Obviously the message of complacency conveyed by Mariano Rajoy has been challenged by opposition leaders. Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) says that Rajoy is unable to provide "a response to the crisis" and is "accomplice of corruption", as well "the best ally of Artur Mas" because of his "immobilism" and inability to dialogue. Regarding to that, Catalan premier Artur Mas said that Rajoy has been unable to seat at a table to discuss the "democratic aspirations of the Catalan people". Podemos spokepersons stated that Rajoy sketched "an unreal country". Alberto Garzón (IU) said that improving of macroeconomic indicators is due to the "expansionary" measures implemented by Draghi and the ECB, as well considered Rajoy's balance "pure fantasy" stressing that "we are a country in social emergency that needs policies to create employment". Albert Rivera (C's) considers that Rajoy heads a worn out government lacking of a project for the future, saying that is inappropriate talking about a "triumphal" end of term given "the worrying situation of families and  self-employed workers", "middle class has been fractured and broken" during his tenure and there's the highest level of inequality of the present democratic period. As for the Catalonia, Rivera accused PP and PSOE of neglecting the region: "PP left Catalonia to the Pujol clan and Zapatero to (former ERC leader) Carod Rovira". Rivera refused to comment an offer made by PP candidate Xavier García Albiol, who stated to be "open" to reach governance pacts with C's and other anti-separatist parties after the Catalan elections. In other news, CSP candidate Lluis Rabell stated that if Catalonia secedes without the "necessary complicity" it would not be better treated than Greece by the EU. Rabell considers that if the Catalan elections are the prelude of political changes in Spain, "a window of opportunities" would be open to celebrate the Catalan referendum.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 04, 2015, 09:22:28 am
Artur Mas calls elections in Catalonia:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/08/03/inenglish/1438609838_472058.html

Quote
Catalan premier Artur Mas signed a decree on Monday calling for early regional elections, which will be held on September 27. The move is part of his continued sovereignty push for the northeastern Spanish region.

The signing came at 9pm on Monday evening, accompanied by a call by the politician for the vote to serve as a plebiscite. However, the word “plebiscite” was not included in the decree, so as to avoid a legal challenge from the central government in Madrid.

Mas’s quest for independence for Catalonia has put him in a situation of direct confrontation with Popular Party Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who just last week reiterated that the Spanish government will never allow Catalonia to break away from the rest of the country.

Mas, a leader in the Convergència (CDC) party, is running on a secessionist bloc ticket, Junts pel Sí (literally, Together for yes), along with the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) and other pro-independence groups and associations.

The aim is for the bloc to win an absolute majority of seats in the regional parliament, which they would then consider gives them a legitimate mandate to move toward independence. However, Mas did not specify the percentage of votes needed nor the concrete steps that would be taken after the September 27 vote.

Mas waited until the 11th hour to call the elections, in order to reduce the time between the signing and the polls themselves to the absolute minimum of 54 days. As such, he was hoping to avoid the possibility that Prime Minister Rajoy would opt at the last minute to schedule upcoming general elections for the same day as the Catalan regional polls, as some business leaders from Catalonia – who are anti-independence – had called on him to do (...)

With waning support in parliament, Mas broke away from a previous coalition with Unió Democràtica early this year. Unió leaders disapproved of his plan to map out a unilateral independence strategy.

Nevertheless, Convergència is convinced that it will drum up international support.

“We have demonstrated that we have used all the legal resources we have at hand, and we will show the international community that we find ourselves in a position to hold this referendum because the Spanish courts have denied us this option,” said Josep Rull, Convergència’s general coordinator.


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Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 05, 2015, 05:46:09 am
CIS July survey released today (April survey in brackets):

PP 28.2% (25.6%), PSOE 24.9% (24.3%), Podemos 15.7% (16.5%), C's 11.1% (13.8%), IU 3.7% (4.8%)

http://datos.cis.es/pdf/Es3104mar_A.pdf


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Simfan34 on August 06, 2015, 10:09:55 am
I thought Unio was anti-independence, hence why they split with the CDC and broke up CiU?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 06, 2015, 01:41:08 pm
I thought Unio was anti-independence, hence why they split with the CDC and broke up CiU?

Unió and CDC parted ways because the latter turned to pro-independence stances in the last years, while the UDC stands where CiU used to be traditionally. Tension between both coalition partners comes from the beginning of the independence drive, approx in 2010. UDC tried to keep the coalition with CDC because it's a minor party with little electoral chances. However, plans for an unilateral declaration of independence were too much for UDC. Also, Artur Mas and the CDC radicalised senior staff and grassroots wanted to get rid of their partners. Duran i Lleida et alii are considered "traitors" by many people in Convergència. On the other hand, corruption affairs around CiU played a role, especially the Jordi Pujol scandal. Artur Mas desired to refund or reconvert his party, founded by Pujol, whose HQs are currently seized by judiciary. There's a pro-independence faction in UDC that splitted with the breaking up of CiU; now they are called Democrats of Catalonia (DC) and joined the Together for Yes alliance.  


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on August 06, 2015, 01:49:15 pm
Whatever happened to Catalan Solidarity for Independence?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 06, 2015, 03:33:47 pm
Whatever happened to Catalan Solidarity for Independence?

That party is virtually disappeared, since its main leaders -namely Jordi Laporta and Alfons López Tena- quitted politics. Anyway, the party supports the Together for Yes alliance. According to the SI website, party membership voted recently on endorsing the pro-independence joint ticket and 85% said "Yes".


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: tpfkaw on August 07, 2015, 03:04:55 pm
Would I be mistaken in assuming the name of the Podemos electoral alliance was deliberately chosen to confuse pro-independence voters?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 07, 2015, 06:58:30 pm
Would I be mistaken in assuming the name of the Podemos electoral alliance was deliberately chosen to confuse pro-independence voters?

Probably. Why do you think so?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on August 09, 2015, 04:23:48 am
These two pieces might work well as an overview of the current state of affairs.

The new bid for secession in Catalonia:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/05/world/europe/catalonia-calls-election-in-new-bid-for-secession-from-spain.html?_r=0

Quote
A year ago, secessionist movements were all the rage in Europe — until they were not.

After a nerve-rattling campaign, Scots narrowly voted in September to remain part of Britain. Two months later, Catalonia’s drive for an independence referendum fizzled into a nonbinding vote after being thwarted by Spanish courts.

But if Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of Spain breathed a sigh of relief that the issue was behind him, he has reason again to worry (...)

The "unpredictable political autumn" and the trend spotted by the CIS poll:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/08/05/uk-spain-politics-poll-idUKKCN0QA17Z20150805

Quote
An official opinion poll released on Wednesday showed the PP with 28.2 percent support ahead of the opposition Socialists (PSOE) on 24.9, both up from the last poll published in May, while the radical leftist Podemos movement and the centrist Ciudadanos lost ground on 15.7 and 11.1 percent respectively.

The findings of the large-scale survey by the state-run Sociological Investigation Centre confirmed both the trend towards political splintering and greater instability, and a modest boost for Rajoy's government from a reviving economy.

With no clear winner emerging, and a September regional vote in Catalonia expected to add fresh divisions, Spain is heading for an unpredictable autumn.

In town hall and regional elections in May, Spaniards swept aside the two-party system that emerged in the late 1970s after the end of Francisco Franco's dictatorship, ushering in an unstable new era of coalition and compromise.

The latest poll confirmed that up to a third of voters back upstart parties like Podemos, Ciudadanos and other splinter groups and are turning their backs on the traditionally dominant PP and PSOE, tainted by corruption and seen as responsible for the worst economic crisis in decades.

While the economy is now expanding at its fastest pace in more than seven years, a stubbornly high jobless rate and rising income inequality are powerful drivers of deep political change (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on September 27, 2015, 07:40:49 am
Catalonia turnout at 11am at 35% which is 5% above 2012.  Exit polls at 6pm it seems.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on September 27, 2015, 11:21:53 am
Catalonia turnout at 11am at 35% which is 5% above 2012.  Exit polls at 6pm it seems.

Not quite. Exist polls will be at 9 or so, since the electoral colleges close at 8. At 6 we got the second turnout data, a turnout of 63.14%, over 7 pp. higher than in 2012. Apparently higher in traditionally non-nationalist areas.

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Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 01, 2015, 04:31:55 pm
PM Mariano Rajoy announced that the Spanish General Election will take place on December 20.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/10/01/actualidad/1443726596_360140.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ag on October 01, 2015, 10:14:57 pm
PM Mariano Rajoy announced that the Spanish General Election will take place on December 20.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/10/01/actualidad/1443726596_360140.html

¡Finally!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 11, 2015, 04:39:14 am
Metroscopia poll released by El País:

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Vote estimation for C's seems a bit exaggerated, as usual in this pollster. However the trend in last polls is that, after elections in Catalonia, the orange party is replacing the purple as third force.

TNS Demoscopia / Antena 3 (October 5):

PP 27%, PSOE 21.9%, C's 16.5%, Podemos 14.8%, IU 4.5%

I think PSOE's estimation is a bit low, whereas according to Metroscopia there's a PP-PSOE tie. My guess is that PP might be ahead by a narrow margin (2% or 3%).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on October 11, 2015, 07:53:22 am
Well, Kiko Llaneras has released a poll average. Also showing C's estimation according to Metroscopia, which is just crazy.

Warning: Large image.

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Acccording to this and most other polls, both C's and Podemos surpass the de facto 15% threshold that usually impedes third parties from gaining a number of seats roughly proportional to their proportion of votes. Therefore, each party will probably gain around 40-50 seats in December, unless things change a lot.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 11, 2015, 08:49:42 am
Well, Kiko Llaneras has released a poll average. Also showing C's estimation according to Metroscopia, which is just crazy.

Including NC Report and Celeste-Tel is crazy too, so there's some kid of balance in that average. However, it includes polls released from Aug 15. I think such kind of work will be more interesting within one month from the date of the Catalan elections. There's a realistic chance of seeing C's as third party, so Albert Rivera could realize his dream of becoming the king maker. It'd be amusing a government of the two Kens: Pedro Sánchez and Rivera but (as far as I know) C's is not willing to join coalition governments (regrettably :( ).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on October 11, 2015, 09:00:33 am
So, Catalonia. What happens? Will the ERC/CDC alliance continue? Will they bother to take their seats or will they do Sinn Fein? Will Catalonia make moves towards independence between now and the election?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on October 11, 2015, 09:01:51 am

Including NC Report and Celeste-Tel is crazy too, so there's some kid of balance in that average. However, it includes polls released from Aug 15. I think such kind of work will be more interesting within one month from the date of the Catalan elections. There's a realistic chance of seeing C's as third party, so Albert Rivera could realize his dream of becoming the king maker. It'd be amusing a government of the two Kens: Pedro Sánchez and Rivera but (as far as I know) C's is not willing to join coalition governments (regrettably :( ).

I guess so, but it is still mind-blowing. NRC Report and Celeste are indeed over-valuing the PP, but  in a less blatant manner (if still pretty blatant), because you can still find some polls in between, but sometimes it seems like Metroscopia has stopped calling people altogether and just make up random numbers. Worst part is that Metroscopia still has a reputation that neither NRC nor Celeste-Tel have. Which is worrying.

It is indeed realistic, the Catalan elections have propelled them to a centre stage of the campaign. Their electoral plank, with its pragmatic centrist message (reminds of the UCD's speeches: You are Christian-democrat? We have those in UCD, social-democrat? that too! Liberal? of course, democrat? sure thing!!) and what I call "moderate constitutional revision" plans seem likely to attract many dissatisfied PP voters and also PSOE voters who don't believe Sánchez will deliver.

You're right though. C's seems inclined (I'd say) towards supporting a minority PSOE government from outside (PP? Unlikely, I think) and will demand electoral law changes and a constitutional revision, in which all four main parties will participate. I wonder what will happen if we go down that route, in 1978 there were 2 main parties and 4 0.5 parties (PCE, AP, Minoría catalana and PNV), whereas now you have 4 national parties, one alienated Catalan nationalist and the PNV (funny how things change, now the PNV would be the more pragmatic unlike in 78). Reforming the Constitution (if it happens) will be a difficult thing.

That is, assumming C's supports the PSOE. If they support a PP minority, things will be weird and I doubt Rajoy will be allowed to remain as President. But who would replace him? The non-marianistas are very few within the party and Cospedal is hated (and so is Soraya) within the party.

Luckily I'll be in Spain on the 20th, so I'll vote :D

So, Catalonia. What happens? Will the ERC/CDC alliance continue? Will they bother to take their seats or will they do Sinn Fein? Will Catalonia make moves towards independence between now and the election?

That's the million dollar question, isn't it?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 11, 2015, 09:55:18 am
You're right though. C's seems inclined (I'd say) towards supporting a minority PSOE government from outside (PP? Unlikely, I think) and will demand electoral law changes and a constitutional revision, in which all four main parties will participate. I wonder what will happen if we go down that route, in 1978 there were 2 main parties and 4 0.5 parties (PCE, AP, Minoría catalana and PNV), whereas now you have 4 national parties, one alienated Catalan nationalist and the PNV (funny how things change, now the PNV would be the more pragmatic unlike in 78). Reforming the Constitution (if it happens) will be a difficult thing.

I see a clash between PNV and C's on an issue called concierto económico, because that is a sacred thing regardless how pragmatic Basque nationalists are. That's far from being the only obstacle for a much needed constitutional reform. The balance of forces between the four main parties after the elections has relevance in this context.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on October 11, 2015, 10:15:51 am
I see a clash between PNV and C's on an issue called concierto económico, because that is a sacred thing regardless how pragmatic Basque nationalists are. That's far from being the only obstacle for a much needed constitutional reform. The balance of forces between the four main parties after the elections has relevance in this context.

Indeed. If it were up to me, I'd suppress the concierto and replace it with ample fiscal autonomy for all autonomies at a similar level, perhaps with reduced competencies for the smaller regions, like Cantabria or La Rioja (I mean, c'mon, why are either of them CCAA??!). But since we're talking about what is feasible and not my own ideas, you are right. It's difficult, but I think that C's would give up on that issue after making some noise and explain their decision on the basis of 'achieving consensus requires giving up on some issues".

You are right of course, and this is all hypothesising. Elections in December are very far away in political terms and it can rain a lot in between. I do wonder how extending special protection to Catalan would work, as Catalanists want and PSOE and Podemos seem inclined to accept. What do you do? Put a clause saying "Catalan deserves special protection from the State"?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 11, 2015, 08:49:50 pm

Including NC Report and Celeste-Tel is crazy too

I guess so, but it is still mind-blowing. NRC Report and Celeste are indeed over-valuing the PP, but  in a less blatant manner (if still pretty blatant), because you can still find some polls in between, but sometimes it seems like Metroscopia has stopped calling people altogether and just make up random numbers. Worst part is that Metroscopia still has a reputation that neither NRC nor Celeste-Tel have. Which is worrying.

Wait, Metroscopia was reasonably spotted on in predicting the result in Catalonia on September 27.

http://www.politicalmarkets.com/wordpress/?p=2099

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/09/22/media/1442955198_970208.html

Metroscopia estimations for the general election are another question (they tend to overestimate insurgent parties, particularly C's). Still, I think that pollster is more reliable than NC Report (they only work for La Razón and the PP) and Celeste-Tel (apparently the polling chief is the wife of that of NC Report).

You are right of course, and this is all hypothesising. Elections in December are very far away in political terms and it can rain a lot in between. I do wonder how extending special protection to Catalan would work, as Catalanists want and PSOE and Podemos seem inclined to accept. What do you do? Put a clause saying "Catalan deserves special protection from the State"?

At this point, I would put the word "nation" together with the word "Catalunya" in the constitutional text. In the present text Catalonia is already a "historical nationality". Recently Valencia regional premier Ximo Puig proposed to restore the 2006 Catalan Stature, the same Albert Rivera says is unconstitutional. Of course Catalans would ask for some safeguards for the Catalan language, in order to prevent that someone like José Ignacio Wert takes on again Education and Culture portfolios.

I read today (I should say yesterday, it's 2 AM at home) a good article by historian Santos Juliá, who is the best alive in what concerns Manuel Azaña. I don't necessarily agree on the whole text, but I liked very much the part where he explains how Jaume Vicens Vives -probably the most prominent Catalan historian in the XX Century- had to fight against the "romantic compulsion" that tends to rewrite the past in order to match with a certain nationalistic narrative -of course very 19th century, that is to say 'romantic'-. Reading those paragraphs, you can understand it is only one step from that and the "Catalunya vs Espanya" exhibition on the anniversary of the 1714 siege of Barcelona, which wasn't the final stage of a war between two nations but the end of a dynastic conflict. I'd wish that desire to break away - which, of course, is as legitimate as the desire to stay- didn't need traducing history in order to sustain itself. As for the other camp (call it unionist, constitutionalist, Spanish nationalist, or whatever you want), you can read tons of remarkable nonsense... In short, there's a huge lack of rigor everywhere.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/10/08/opinion/1444320757_315511.html


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on October 15, 2015, 09:16:20 am
Bad week for the PP: Arantza Quiroga (President of the Basque PP) resigns after her latest attempt to find a place for the PP in the Basque Country in a post-ETA scenario backfired and she was thoroughly criticised by her own party (as she did not consult Génova beforehand) forcing her out of her position. Cayatena Álvarez de Toledo, member of the hard right of the PP said in an interview she would not stand for election if Rajoy continues as candidate. Those controversial statements on the press made her colleagues really angry and she was shouted at at the end of yesterday's parliamentary session by her own party members for her 'betrayal'.

Meanwhile, Montoro was interviewed by El Mundo and he declared that within the party there are people who are 'ashamed' of belonging to the PP and probably refers to the suddenly more social tone the Government has taken for 2015, in an obviously electoralistic line. He also criticises the new generation of PP leaders, whom he feels undervalue the effort of this government on their attempt to widen the appeal of the PP from just 'the crisis is over' message and with their insistence on an ethical renewal of the party.

And then De Guindos has also announced that he will not continue as minister in the next legislature, "even if Rajoys asks me to".

The battle in the Basque Country is essentially a fight between the Sorayistas (Alfonso Alonso and the PP of Álava) and the Cospedal faction, of which Quiroga is a member (sort of, no official factions and all that). Although it is also a fight between the three provincial branches of the PP of Euskadi, basically Alava (Alonso, Oyarzabal) vs. Guipuzcoa & Vizcaya (Quiroga, Basagoiti), which also kind of a fight between the moderates who want the PP to move towards the centre and away from political irrelevance in the now post-ETA PP and the hardliners who want to continue with the Mayor Oreja and María an Gil years policy, which might not work so well as it once did after the demise of ETA.

In the meantime, 10/18 regional PP branches have no leader, as they have resigned, instead they are been led by interim gestoras, and that's 2 months away from the general elections.

And more, to round up today: Francisco Granados talks from prison, points at Aguirre and Ignacio González. Says that the Púnica is not a real operation, because there's still so much people to be detained. URL="http://www.elespanol.com/enfoques/20151014/71492892_0.html"]http://www.elespanol.com/enfoques/20151014/71492892_0.html[/URL]


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 15, 2015, 02:51:27 pm
Add this little affair to the list of troubles:

"Brussels ratifies report warning Spain over deficit target risks"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/10/13/inenglish/1444725703_984035.html

Quote
The European Commission has warned that Spain will not be able to meet its deficit reduction goals for this year and the next, and has called on the government to amend its 2016 budget accordingly after the general election.

“The commission foresees that Spain’s overall deficit would fall to 4.5% of GDP for this year, and for 3.55% in 2016, which would represent a failure to correct the excess before the end of 2016,” said the EC in a statement on Monday after finally ratifying its controversial report on the Spanish budget, the details of which EL PAÍS exclusively revealed last week(...)

Brussels added that whichever government emerges after the December 20 elections would have to revise the current plan to meet the goal of reducing the deficit to 2.8% for next year (...)

The point is that, aside that general opinion says the budget is unrealistic and will need to be revised, no Spanish government has ever passed a budget only a few months before the elections. It's like to tie the hands of the next administration. That report, of course, is a deadly blow for the government's complacency.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on October 26, 2015, 05:03:41 pm
Mariano Rajoy dissolves parliament.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/10/26/inenglish/1445875171_273653.html

Quote
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy on Monday sidestepped questions about his political future after signing a resolution formally dissolving parliament ahead of December’s general election.

In comments to reporters after giving a progress report on the achievements of his Popular Party (PP) administration, Rajoy declined to speculate on any plans to form a coalition government with the emerging conservative group Ciudadanos, which has gained strength since the regional and municipal elections in May (...)

Albert Rivera, the charismatic leader of Ciudadanos, has stated that he will demand Rajoy’s political head if it comes down to the PP and his own party holding discussions about forming a coalition.

When asked about these statements, the prime minister jokingly responded: “My head is well-placed and I am not going to let anyone remove it from where it is.” (...)

On Catalonia.

Quote
Addressing the Catalan political crisis created by premier Artur Mas’s independence drive, Rajoy said that he had no intention of including in his campaign platform any proposal for constitutional reform that might help diffuse the situation in the northeast region. Yet he acknowledged that the Catalan crisis was Spain’s second-biggest problem.

Asked if he was prepared to take emergency measures if the situation flared up while parliament was out of session, the prime minister admitted that he did have a plan.

“Yes, I have some plans – including those that you are thinking about – because that is my duty as a prime minister. Nevertheless in any case, I hope we do not have to take any such action,” he said.

Under the Constitution, the central government could suspend a region’s powers “in order to compel” it to “fulfill the obligations imposed upon it by the Constitution or other laws.” However, prior approval by the Senate would be necessary (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 01, 2015, 01:54:47 pm
October polls.

Sigma Dos / Mediaset (15/10/15)

PP 27.4%, PSOE 23.7%, C's 18.1%, Podemos 16.3%, IU 4.1%, CDC 2.2%, PNV 1.5%, Others 8.3%

Invymark / La Sexta (19/10/15)

PP 28.6%, PSOE 23.9%, C's 18.3%, Podemos 13.5%, IU 3%, Others 12.6%

TNS Demoscopia / Antena 3 (25/10/15)

PP 26%, PSOE 20.5%, C's 19.2%, Podemos 14.6%, IU 4.4%, Others 14.8%

Metroscopia / El País (28/10/15)

PP 23.5%, C's 22.5%, PSOE 21%, Podemos 17%, IU 6.3%, Others 9.7%

Projection of seats (Metroscopia): PP 93-100, PSOE 88-98, C's 72-84, Podemos 42-46, IU 5, Others 33-34


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on November 02, 2015, 03:59:30 am
http://www.elespanol.com/actualidad/20151029/75242536_0.html (http://www.elespanol.com/actualidad/20151029/75242536_0.html)

Interesting article, with an average of polls and a prediction of seats. Also looks at the possibilities of coalition-building.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 03, 2015, 09:51:34 am
Past week Catalan secessionist parties declared the beginning of the independence process:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/10/27/inenglish/1445940124_546366.html

Quote
The two separatist groups in the Catalan parliament have agreed on a document declaring “the beginning of the process to create an independent Catalan state.” (...)

On Tuesday PP, PSC and C's filed a joint appeal against the separatists' motion:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/03/inenglish/1446545121_442805.html

Quote
Ciudadanos leader Albert Rivera on Tuesday confirmed that the 52 non-secessionist representatives in the Catalan parliament – the sum of Ciudadanos, the Catalan Socialists and the Catalan Popular Party (PP) – would on Wednesday file a joint appeal before the Constitutional Court to challenge the fact that the regional chamber has accepted a debate on the motion declaring the start of the independence process for the northeastern region.

This marks the first time that these parties have united in any meaningful way, underscoring how the separatist challenge is already changing Spanish politics and causing a shift in allegiances and priorities. (...)

As long as Catalan separatism is the heart of the debate, good news for C's and bad for PSOE and Podemos.

In other news, "mixed signals" from labor market:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/03/inenglish/1446540384_041032.html

Quote
he Spanish job market issued mixed signals in October. Unemployment rose by 82,327 individuals to reach 4.1 million, yet Social Security affiliations – considered a sign of job creation – also grew a monthly average of 31,652 for a total of 17,221,467 individuals, according to figures released by the Labor Ministry.

(4.1 million is the number of the officially registered unemployed. The Labour Force Survey -EPA- published every three months provides more realistic figures).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Ex-Assemblyman Steelers on November 03, 2015, 10:12:28 am
Threshold is 5%?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: palandio on November 03, 2015, 10:48:47 am
No de-iure threshold at all. The de-facto threshold comes from the province-based d'Hondt method seat allocation and varies between ca. 2.5% (Madrid) and ca. 25-30% (Soria). Most provinces have between 3 and 8 seats, so the de-facto threshold is ca. 10-20%. Regional parties like CDC, ERC, PNV, Bildu, BNG will get proportional representation, because they are strong in a few provinces. Relatively small parties with more equally distributed support like IU may get seats only in the big provinces of Madrid and Barcelona, even if they get over 5% nationally.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 03, 2015, 11:48:38 am
No de-iure threshold at all. The de-facto threshold comes from the province-based d'Hondt method seat allocation and varies between ca. 2.5% (Madrid) and ca. 25-30% (Soria). Most provinces have between 3 and 8 seats, so the de-facto threshold is ca. 10-20%. Regional parties like CDC, ERC, PNV, Bildu, BNG will get proportional representation, because they are strong in a few provinces. Relatively small parties with more equally distributed support like IU may get seats only in the big provinces of Madrid and Barcelona, even if they get over 5% nationally.

There is a threshold. In order to win seats, only lists getting more than 3% are considered for the allocation of seats in every province. The 3% threshold only works de-facto in the provinces of Madrid and Barcelona (36 and 31 seats, respectively). In the rest of provinces it works like you said.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Ex-Assemblyman Steelers on November 03, 2015, 12:46:21 pm
Thank you both of you guys.  I asked because of IU.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 03, 2015, 03:32:45 pm
How efficient is the renovating IU vote? Is it diffuse or concentrated to a few odd provinces?

Also will the parties in Catalonia be the same as what was in the provincial election (I.e. CDC + ERC and Podemos+Greens+IU)?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 03, 2015, 06:54:48 pm
How efficient is the renovating IU vote? Is it diffuse or concentrated to a few odd provinces?

Also will the parties in Catalonia be the same as what was in the provincial election (I.e. CDC + ERC and Podemos+Greens+IU)?

I'd say the distribution of the IU vote tends to be diffuse. If you look at the 2008 election -the IU's nadir- is evident how the Spanish electoral system mistreats minor national parties. Then, IU only managed to win 2 seats getting 3.8% of the vote nationwide: 1 in Madrid and 1 in Barcelona (this one was for ICV, the IU's Catalan partner). Traditionally IU had a number of strong places such as Madrid, Asturias or some Andalusian provinces. Their chances of winning seats are basically reduced to that (add the Valencia province, being optimistic). 

CDC and ERC are going to run in their own in the Spanish General Election. As far as I know, the coalition between Podemos, ICV and IU stands in Catalonia*. On the other hand, the far-left separatist CUP has never ran in Spanish elections. The UDC will try to win a seat in the Spanish parliament, after their failure in the last regional election.

*Podemos wanted to forge alliances similar to that of Catalonia in regions like Valencia and Galicia, but I'm not sure if talks will succeed. In Valencia, the nationalist wing in Compromís is against a coalition with Podemos.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on November 04, 2015, 10:38:07 am
Politikon now publishes in English too and they have two interesting voting analysis:

The core of Spanish parties

The fallout of traditional parties and the emergence of new alternatives has come to tear up the relative homogeneity that existed across PP and PSOE voters. The electoral demand has become more fragmented along with the segmentation of supply, but we are still far from a whole understanding of how and to what extent has this happened.

The capital importance of the left-right or centre-periphery cleavages to understand the electoral market is taken for granted. Probably that is why these divisions get so much attention (most of it well justified) by analysts, journalists and politicians. However, there are more ways to look at this supply-demand relationship. Age, occupational structure, labour market position… These relations have strategic consequences for parties. And although class vote has not historically been a determinant aspect of the party system, the situation might be evolving in that direction, at least to a certain extent.

The data

Every party depends on specific social profiles among others. These are their core constituencies. To locate it and compare it with the overall social profile of the Spanish population we should observe the distribution of its voters and sympathisers across a series of variables. This is not about who ‘wins’ among the young, the old, the rich or the personal services employees. It is about knowing which percentage of the party’s constituency corresponds to each category.

The distribution of supporters  across age gives a good and particularly relevant data point to understand the emerging party structure. The next panel shows such distribution for each of the five main parties competing at the national level. Together with the percentage that corresponds to each party and age group I annotate the difference (in percentage points) with respect to the distribution across the whole population.

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For example, 11% of Podemos’ supporters have between 18 and 24 years, 2.8pp above the average of 8.2%. But even when the youngest Spaniards are overrepresented in Podemos more than in any other party, they are only the fifth largest age group in the platform. In any case, it is true that Iglesias’ is the youngest organisation. At the other extreme, 39% of people supporting the PP are older than 64 years. This represents 15.5pp more than the average. Spain has an aging population: 23.4% of it is above 64. But the “population” of the PP is so much older. Even more than for the PSOE, whose structure is also significantly skewed toward senior citizens.

As a matter of fact, “the party of those who do not work” might be a good tagline to define the PP: 46.4% of its supporters are not part of the active population*.

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The PSOE comes right behind. Needless to say, this distribution is intimately related to age. New parties do not have more than 17% of non-active voters. Podemos looks like a coalition between insider and outsider-based households. Ciudadanos, on the other hand, is considerably more skewed towards self-employed and managers, keeping still a strong base of insiders, although quite different from that of Podemos as it will be shown below.

It won’t be much of a surprise that both insiders and the unemployed (for the PP) have lost importance among classic parties’ supporters, leaving the socialists and the conservatives as quite dependent from retired people.

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Not all retirees are equal. It is now the right moment to dissection each portion of the previous graph, starting with the first bloc. The PSOE has much more qualified manual workers among their retired voters, but the PP has a larger concentration of old & new middle classes, as well as higher classes.

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To a certain extent, this trend is maintained when we observe the composition of insider-led household members within each party. While supporters of the PP who work and live in a household whose reference person has an open-ended contract the are mostly qualified and semi-skilled service sector employees, among PSOE’s manual and unskilled workers have a much stronger presence, although they still fail to constitute a majority.

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Ciudadanos complements the significant presence of managers and self-employed in its ranks with a large number of managers and qualified professionals, but also middle class workers occupied in the service sector. The profile of ‘household insiders’ among Podemos is relatively similar, with one important caveat: the increased presence of skilled workers relative to the average, offering a mixed profile.

Among managers and entrepreneurs, Ciudadanos shows as well a markedly higher profile, in this case measured by education level, with respect to other parties and the overall population.

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The trend gets confirmed when outsiders’ composition (quick reminder: people who work and live in households where the reference person has a temporary contract or is unemployed): those who support Ciudadanos, Podemos & Izquierda Unida have a higher skill profile.

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However, education is not everything. It is quite illustrative to observe that Podemos is the party where overqualified workers find themselves with more relative power: above 12% of the ‘purple’ supporters fall into this category.

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Overqualified does not mean poor. Observing the supporters’ distribution depending on individual income, Podemos displays an above-average profile , only below Ciudadanos and (partially) IU. The communist-green coalition has two peaks: working class (presumably from Asturias and Andalusia) and gauche divine.

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The socialists display the lowest income profile. This is clearly influenced by age structure, which does not change the fact that the PSOE voter is poorer. As a matter of fact, an alternative calculation excluding retired people from the data does not significantly change the displayed profile.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on November 04, 2015, 10:38:46 am
Part 2:

The interpretation

All these data overload can be interpreted if the reader is willing to embark on adventurous hypothesis elaboration. A picture (or rather a useful caricature) of four prototypical parties emerge: the conservative (PP), the market-oriented reformist (Ciudadanos – C’s), the divided socialism (PSOE) and the angry youth party (Podemos).

Almost half of PP voters do not participate in the labour market. 40% are over 64 years old. Among the non-active people, middle and upper-middle classes constitute a clear majority (65%). Middle classes dominate as well among working age supporters. Its supporter with a manager status does not have a particularly high profile when it is compared with the average. But there are no overqualified people among its voters. From this point of view, the ‘adventurous hypothesis’ would be that PP supporters are those whose expectative not been dramatically affected by the crisis. In other words: those that can buy into its main campaigning message, based on “recovery is here, we have done what was needed, now it is not the right moment to experiment”.

The conservative position has not one but two nemeses. On the one side, Podemos is the party of those who radically oppose to the ‘success’ frame: there is no recovery, they seem to say, but a systemic crisis. Its supporters are way younger than those of other parties. Their income profile is a bit above the average, but 35% of them are either unemployed or have a temporary contract, contrasting with a slim 16% for the PP. Those workers in ‘outsider households’ are more skilled than the average. Therefore, it is not surprising that 12.6% of them is overqualified. Only a 18% is out of the economically active population. Around this core of ‘losers (of expectations)’, there is a cover of open-ended workers (32%) where both qualified technicians and manual workers reflect probably the vote absorbed from both socialists and communists. It looks like those who are not willing under any circumstance to assume the official narrative on crisis and recovery.

On the other side we find Ciudadanos, a party where, as in Podemos, most supporters are labour market participants (83%). And, as in Podemos, their profile is a bit younger than the average, although this time the 35-44 age group stands out. Nevertheless, outsiders are less than in Iglesias’ party (26%) and belong mostly to new middle classes, being substantially more qualified than those from other parties. As for insiders, middle and upper-middle classes from service sector are clearly overrepresented. As managers & employers, whose weight is at 11.3%. These are quite more skilled than the average, particularly when put against the PP managerial support. The class profile of Ciudadanos is clearly above that for other parties. Its reformist discourse squares well with the image of new middle classes, upper-middle classes and elites with a strong interest on advancing liberalization.

Among these three extremes, classic socialism has not found its place. It is clear that the age structure of PSOE’s supporters is more similar to the PP than to the rest. But these older, non-active people have a very different profile, with a clear majority of manual workers. The class-based differences are even more evident when observing the income profile of supporters: the PSOE is sharply below the rest. Despite the relative losses that the socialists have suffered from supporters with permanent contracts, they retain the largest core of industrial workers and unskilled. Many of their outsiders also belong to this category. The  socialist insistence on the idea of ​​”reindustrialization” is best understood under the light of this data, coupled with the fact that such voters also represent the core of militancy of the sister union, UGT. But they coexist with a huge number of working class retirees and with the highest representation of middle-low and low class among all parties. It is very difficult to build a coherent platform that leave them all well satisfied, let alone recovering lost voters or appealing to new ones. At the end of the day, the retirees has been the least affected social group in this crisis thanks to the structure of the Spanish welfare state, while the poorest working classes have taken a big blow that could have been cushioned with an alternative system. But under a heavy budget constraint it is not credible to suggest a change towards such alternative without assuming that there will be either spending cuts in other sections or tax increases. In addition, a considerable amount of people of lower middle and lower class have difficulty finding a decent position in the labor market in part because of our regulatory and welfare model, which benefits precisely the industrial working class voter. In short, a very hard puzzle.

*The division between those with permanent (insiders) and temporary (outsiders) contracts refers to the reference person in the household, who may or may not be the one questioned. This is due to the methodology followed by the CIS. Therefore, these categories represent actively working people who do not belong to any of the other categories, who are living in a household where either him or someone with higher income has a permanent contract or a temporary one. In most cases, if the reference person has a temporary contract, all other household members who work have it as well. But the opposite does not hold so often. Therefore, the bias introduced by the use of the question tends to reduce the representation of temporary workers. Whenever I make references to permanent, temporary workers, insiders or outsiders the reader must take this into account.

** From now on, the used samples tend to be smaller, which means that it is essential to take all the results with a grain of salt.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on November 04, 2015, 01:21:53 pm
Great post(s), thank you for it.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 05, 2015, 04:54:55 pm
CIS October survey (fieldwork, Oct 1-12)

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54% of Spaniards has no confidence in Rajoy, according to CIS; nearly 29% of the respondents has little confidence in the PM. As for PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez, 41% has little confidence and 35.5% no confidence at all.

In the news: "Constitutional Court rejects blocking Catalan independence motion vote"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/05/inenglish/1446747744_752094.html

Quote
Spain’s Constitutional Court has unanimously rejected blocking the debate and vote on the motion declaring the start of the independence process due to be held in the Catalan parliament on Monday following an appeal by opposition parties.

Although the court unanimously admitted the appeals presented by Ciudadanos (C’s), the Popular Party (PP) and the Catalan Socialists (PSC), it has refused to suspend the session as a precautionary measure, as the first two groups had requested.

Parliament was the “natural headquarters for political debate” and the result of that debate “should not condition the viability of that debate in advance,” the court said. That is why it believes it is unable to suspend the session (...)

Basque premier takes some distance with the Catalan 'process'.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/04/inenglish/1446638204_560427.html

Quote
Basque regional premier Iñigo Urkullu said on Wednesday that Catalonia’s unilateral independence bid is not a model to follow for his own region.

Urkullu, of the moderate Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), said that a new European Union state cannot be created “overnight,” much less through the kind of unilateral declaration of independence designed by the Catalan separatists who won a majority of seats, though not of votes, at the September 27 regional election.

In statements made on SER radio station in Bilbao, Urkullu said he was aware that many Catalans have been angered by successive central governments in Madrid, and suggested that some of the separatist attitudes on display in Catalonia today have been caused by “the zero intelligence” displayed by the state in its treatment of Spain’s various cultural groups.

If the Basque Country, another traditional hotbed of nationalist sentiment, were ever to consider a breakaway from Spain, it would be as a result of dialogue with Madrid, he said.

But the person to enter into dialogue with is not current Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, he added. “Not the Rajoy I know.”

According to Urkullu, what Spain needs now is “a David Cameron who can dialogue in order to reach agreements and offer solutions (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: rob in cal on November 07, 2015, 12:00:13 pm
    So, if in fact the PP and Ciudadanos have close to a working majority in the new Cortes, would such a coalition be the most likely outcome?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 07, 2015, 04:03:48 pm
    So, if in fact the PP and Ciudadanos have close to a working majority in the new Cortes, would such a coalition be the most likely outcome?

Current average polling suggests that the most viable option is a PP minority government backed by C's. The orange party is very reluctant to enter in coalition governments, unless they are the main force. Also, Ciudadanos reclaims that PP must cut Mariano Rajoy's head before start speaking. Trend in last polls shows that oranges are rocketing, to the point that some people say they will give a surprise in the elections. There's a great volatility and it's hard to say if that progression will continue.

Wiki average polling:

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In the news, Podemos recruits former Chief of Defense Julio Rodríguez to run in the Zaragoza province. "It's an honor for us to be joined by Julio Rodríguez, a man who has devoted his life to defending his country”, said Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/04/inenglish/1446648712_679491.html

Quote
A former top-ranking military official will be running in Spain’s general election as a candidate for anti-austerity party Podemos.

General Julio Rodríguez Fernández, 67, was Chief of the Defense Staff from 2008 to late 2011, under the Socialist government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero.

“He is going to be number two on the Zaragoza list, after Pedro Arrojo,” said Podemos secretary general Pablo Iglesias in a press conference on Wednesday (...)

The purple party is struggling to improve the downward trend after the failure in Catalan elections. I believe they'll have a hard time.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 10, 2015, 12:48:01 pm
The vaudeville continues, overshadowing any other relevant issue:

"Catalan parliament passes motion declaring start of secession process":

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/09/inenglish/1447067955_007589.html

Quote
Exactly one year after Catalan separatists organized an informal referendum on self-rule, the regional parliament held a historic session to debate and vote on a motion to start breaking away from Spain.

A few minutes past noon, the Catalan parliament approved the controversial document with 72 votes in favor from separatist forces and 63 votes against from unionists (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: coloniac on November 11, 2015, 01:52:24 am
The vaudeville continues, overshadowing any other relevant issue:

"Catalan parliament passes motion declaring start of secession process":

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/09/inenglish/1447067955_007589.html

Quote
Exactly one year after Catalan separatists organized an informal referendum on self-rule, the regional parliament held a historic session to debate and vote on a motion to start breaking away from Spain.

A few minutes past noon, the Catalan parliament approved the controversial document with 72 votes in favor from separatist forces and 63 votes against from unionists (...)

Didn't the CUP explicitly say they would only support independence if 50% of the electorate voted in favoor of secessionists?

I think this is just a measure to get a better bargaining position. The Castillans will not take it like that though. It will no doubt toughen PP's and C's stances, while Podemos and PSOE will be seen as weak moderate heroes on the issue.

They've handed the general election agenda on a plate to the polarised views on peripheral independence. 


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on November 11, 2015, 07:54:47 am
What are these Castillians you speak of?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 11, 2015, 08:52:20 am

I think this is just a measure to get a better bargaining position. The Castillans will not take it like that though. It will no doubt toughen PP's and C's stances, while Podemos and PSOE will be seen as weak moderate heroes on the issue.

They've handed the general election agenda on a plate to the polarised views on peripheral independence. 

I'm not Castilian, but I can tell you that Catalan separatists are living in a sort of dreamlike state -we'll see how hard is the awakening- and the whole 'process' is nothing but a grotesque farce, which leads to a cul de sac that sadly is going to have serious consequences in the whole 'Spanish State'. On the other hand, Mariano Rajoy's administration has a heavy responsibility in this state of affairs. I think this man should have resigned for his incompetence in handling the problem and the corruption that rots the Popular Party, rottenness that has a clear counterpart in the Artur Mas' CDC.

However, corruption and other problems are going to be pushed to the background, apparently. As for the elections, polarisation favors Ciudadanos and PP to a lesser extent. Catalan separatists are fully aware of that, but they don't care because they have embarked on that delusion called procés sobiranista. On the other hand, even Artur Mas' skills as trickster are not enough to convince the CUP to vote for him to continue in the post of 'driver of the 'process'. Terrible and grotesque mess... It's possible that part of the support for separatism in Catalonia is motivated by the desire of achieving a better bargaining position with the 'Spanish State', but the development of events might not lead to that. One thing is clear for some people in this country: Mariano Rajoy and Artur Mas are obstacles to solve the political problem. 



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ∀lex on November 11, 2015, 09:40:47 am
What are these Castillians you speak of?
Castilla is the center-north portion of Spain, it's  sometime used as a term for the regions not looking for further  autonomy  or independence


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Simfan34 on November 11, 2015, 09:59:52 am
In the news, Podemos recruits former Chief of Defense Julio Rodríguez to run in the Zaragoza province. "It's an honor for us to be joined by Julio Rodríguez, a man who has devoted his life to defending his country”, said Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/04/inenglish/1446648712_679491.html

Quote
A former top-ranking military official will be running in Spain’s general election as a candidate for anti-austerity party Podemos.

General Julio Rodríguez Fernández, 67, was Chief of the Defense Staff from 2008 to late 2011, under the Socialist government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero.

“He is going to be number two on the Zaragoza list, after Pedro Arrojo,” said Podemos secretary general Pablo Iglesias in a press conference on Wednesday (...)

This is confusing, given what I know of the Spanish Armed Forces.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 11, 2015, 10:34:01 am
What are these Castillians you speak of?
Castilla is the center-north portion of Spain, it's  sometime used as a term for the regions not looking for further  autonomy  or independence

Nanwe is from Valladolid, so I'm sure that he knows where is located Castile in the Spanish portion of the Iberian Peninsula. By the way, the 'Old Castile' (currently Castilla y León) is in the center-north, while the 'New Castile' (Castilla-La Mancha) lies in the center-south and Madrid is in the center-center of the Peninsula. The point is that saying that the rest of Spaniards are "Castilian" is fully incorrect. Another question is that Spanish language is called "Castilian" in Latin America and parts of Spain like Catalonia. I'm "Castilian speaking", but certainly not "Castilian" because I was born and live in another region and don't have family roots in that part of Spain.

In the news, Podemos recruits former Chief of Defense Julio Rodríguez to run in the Zaragoza province. "It's an honor for us to be joined by Julio Rodríguez, a man who has devoted his life to defending his country”, said Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/04/inenglish/1446648712_679491.html

Quote
A former top-ranking military official will be running in Spain’s general election as a candidate for anti-austerity party Podemos.

General Julio Rodríguez Fernández, 67, was Chief of the Defense Staff from 2008 to late 2011, under the Socialist government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero.

“He is going to be number two on the Zaragoza list, after Pedro Arrojo,” said Podemos secretary general Pablo Iglesias in a press conference on Wednesday (...)

This is confusing, given what I know of the Spanish Armed Forces.

I ignore what do you know, but Franco died a long ago and Spanish Armed Forces have changed a little bit since then. General Julio Rodríguez was considered close to PSOE and had a close working relationship with former Minister of Defence Carme Chacón, who is a woman from Catalonia. Apparently, the conservative Spanish government didn't like Mr Rodríguez's move. Current Minister of Defence criticised him for entering politics, in spite of the fact that the man is retired from active duty.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on November 11, 2015, 12:58:22 pm
What are these Castillians you speak of?
Castilla is the center-north portion of Spain, it's  sometime used as a term for the regions not looking for further  autonomy  or independence

Nanwe is from Valladolid, so I'm sure that he knows where is located Castile in the Spanish portion of the Iberian Peninsula. By the way, the 'Old Castile' (currently Castilla y León) is in the center-north, while the 'New Castile' (Castilla-La Mancha) lies in the center-south and Madrid is in the center-center of the Peninsula. The point is that saying that the rest of Spaniards are "Castilian" is fully incorrect. Another question is that Spanish language is called "Castilian" in Latin America and parts of Spain like Catalonia. I'm "Castilian speaking", but certainly not "Castilian" because I was born and live in another region and don't have family roots in that part of Spain.

Yes, indeed. Sorry about being cheeky, but I was at work and at a loss of words. 'Castilla' or 'castellano' is not a real ethnic or even identity criterion, if you want to distinguish between the people from the historic regions (Galicia, Cat., Basque C.), just mention, 'the rest of Spain' or 'Spaniards'. There is, beyond some groups like the Partido Comunero or the PCPE, so small that could practically be statistical errors, no Castillian identity. Most people in Castilla (which is indeed a geographical term, comprising CyL, CAM and C-LM) identify as from their city (or province at best) and then as Spaniards. This is similar to how English people don't really identify as English much, but even to a higher degree.

As Velasco puts it, not everyone who is a monolingual Spanish-speaker is 'culturally Castillian' (assuming that's a thing), but rather the opposite! As someone from Valladolid, I would probably feel closer in cultural terms to a Basque person than to say, someone from Seville or Tenerife.

EDIT: Actually, I'll correct myself, I do identify myself as Castillian but only when I'm taking part of that great Valladolid tradition of pretending like people from León are untermenschen.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on November 12, 2015, 03:42:04 am
Constitutional Court accepted a Government's appeal yesterday, triggering the suspension of the motion approved by the Catalan Parliament on Monday in order to begin the "breaking away process". The Court warns 21 high ranking Catalan officials -including acting premier Artur Mas and parliamentary speaker Carme Forcadell- that they must fulfill this decision and prevent any inititative ignoring it, but didn't accept the government's request on warning said officials that they face suspension.

Today acting premier Artur Mas faces the second investiture vote in the Parliament of Catalonia. In order to obtain parliamentary support from the CUP, Artur Mas offered to delegate powers creating three vice-presidencies that would be held by Neus Munté (CDC), Oriol Junqueras (ERC) and Raül Romeva (the JxSí top candidate in past elections). Officially the CUP persists in saying "no" to Mas, but apparently a 'moderate' faction is prone to accept some formula that permits incumbent premier to hold on office arguing that "many people wouldn't understand that Mas falls precisely now". Resolution in a few hours.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 01, 2015, 02:41:57 pm
I'm not paying attention to political developments, but there was a three-cornered debate between Mariano Rajoy's main challengers. There was an empty stand for the incumbent PM, who refused to attend.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/12/01/inenglish/1448958135_116203.html

Quote
The three main candidates aspiring to replace Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy at the December 20 election faced off against one another on Monday night in a debate that was the first of its kind in several ways.

Organized by EL PAÍS, it was the first Spanish election debate to be broadcast online rather than via television. The format also involved a break with the past, with contenders accepting questions from the audience for the first time.

The picture that emerged was one of changing political styles in a country where politics has been dominated by the same two parties since the 1980s

Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE), Albert Rivera of Ciudadanos and Pablo Iglesias of Podemos discussed jobs, welfare policies, territorial issues and political reform for nearly two hours. Popular Party leader Rajoy was conspicuously absent from the debate after declining EL PAÍS’ invitation and attempting to send his deputy instead (...)

Deputy PM Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría will attend a similar debate in Antena 3 TV, while Mr. Rajoy will face the official leader of the opposition (Pedro Sánchez) alone in another upcoming TV debate.

According to internet users following the debate, Pablo Iglesias was the winner. You know that internet polls are internet polls. I didn't follow that, so I can't give an opinion.

Average polling at Electograph (as of Nov 30):

PP 27.6%, PSOE 21.5%, C's 19.8%, Podemos* 14.9%, IU** (UP) 4.2%

* Including regional coalitions in Catalonia, Valencia and Galicia

** IU is disguised as Unidad Popular ("Popular Unity") in coalition with minor parties.

General Election poll for Catalonia (GESOP / El Periódico de Catalunya on Nov 28)

En Comú Podem (ECP= Podemos + ICV + EUiA + Barcelona en Comú) 19.4% (9-10 seats)

C's 18.4% (8-10 seats)

ERC 18.1% (9-11 seats)

PSC-PSOE 17.4% (8-9 seats)

Democràcia i Llibertat ("Democracy and Freedom"= CDC and minor parties) 14.1% (7-8 seats)

PP 8.8% (3-4 seats)

Others 3.8%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: rob in cal on December 02, 2015, 12:22:54 pm
    Assuming the election results turn out roughly something like the way the  polls are showing, I wonder how the electoral system will translate those votes into seats. Outside of Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia districts, there are so many 5 to 10 seat districts, that I wonder if the proportional aspect will be severely weakened or not.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: FredLindq on December 02, 2015, 01:40:26 pm
Will UDC die if it not enters the cortes?!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 02, 2015, 04:19:50 pm
Assuming the election results turn out roughly something like the way the  polls are showing, I wonder how the electoral system will translate those votes into seats. Outside of Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia districts, there are so many 5 to 10 seat districts, that I wonder if the proportional aspect will be severely weakened or not.

The electoral system penalizes third national parties in small districts. However, this effect might be damped in case the four main parties surpass 15% of the vote nationwide.

Last GESOP poll for all Spain (I already posted the estimation for Catalonia) shows the following percentages and projection of seats (which is a very approximate estimate; it's impossible to translate accurately vote percentages into seats):

PP 23.9% PSOE 21.4%, C's 21%, Podemos 16%, IU 4.9%, ERC 2.7%, DL (CDC) 2%, Others 8.1%

PP 98-102 seats, PSOE 82-86, C´s 76-80, Podemos 52-56, ERC 9-11, DL 7-8, IU 4-6, Others 11-15

Note that ERC and DL (CDC) are regional parties that only run in the four Catalan provinces, whereas IU runs nationwide and its vote is scattered in a greater number of districts.

The last GAD3 poll has the following figures:

PP 28.3%, PSOE 23.1%, C's 17.4%, Podemos 14.9%, IU 4%, ERC 2.5%, DL (CDC) 2.5%, EAJ-PNV 1.4%. EHBildu 1.3%

Seats: PP 125, PSOE 91, C's 59, Podemos 41, ERC 9, DL 9, EAJ-PNV 5, EHBildu 5, IU 3...

I would insist on the usual inaccuracy of seat projections; they only give an approximation.

Will UDC die if it not enters the cortes?!

At the very least UDC would be virtually dead, regardless if the party still exists.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 03, 2015, 07:40:12 am
CIS November survey

PP 28.6% (120-128 seats)

PSOE 20.8% (77-89 seats)

C's 19% (63-66 seats)

Podemos + allies 15.7% (45-49 seats)

Podemos 9.1% (23-25), ECP 3.2% (10-11), Compromís-Podem 2.1% (7), En Marea 1.3% (5-6)

IU (Unidad Popular) 3.6% (3-4 seats)

Regional parties:

CDC (Democràcia i Llibertat) 2.2% (9 seats)

ERC 1.9% (7 seats)

EHBildu 1.2% (6-7 seats)

EAJ-PNV 1.1% (5 seats)

CC 0.3% (1 seat)

http://ep00.epimg.net/descargables/2015/12/03/21679134b4464ad41e54d8042deb43a8.pdf

Regional alliances:

PP is allied with UPN in Navarre, PAR in Aragon and FAC in Asturias

PSOE is allied with NC in the Canary Islands

Podemos runs in coalition outfits in the following regions: Catalonia (ECP), Valencia (with Compromís) and Galicia (En Marea)

IU is allied with CHA in Aragon. In Catalonia is part of the ECP (with Podemos, ICV and BComú), while in Galicia (if I'm not wrong) IU is part of En Marea.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 03, 2015, 05:43:04 pm
So I tried to map, by the CIS' own poll, a map of Spain. I also used the figures from europaspress and Kiko LLaneras' own figures to try and determine the most voted party to shade the provinces. I decided to always use the likelier number of seats whenever the CIS showed two possibilities (so 2 if it said 2-3 and 3 if it predicted 3-2, obviously this is more than open to change). Since about 40% of people who said they are going to vote haven't yet made up their minds, all these projections can not simply be very accurate.

(
Img
)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 04, 2015, 05:43:08 am
Nice work, very interesting.

Since about 40% of people who said they are going to vote haven't yet made up their minds, all these projections can not simply be very accurate.

Indeed. It's interesting the data on the undecided voters and group ages. There is a clear generation gap (and between the town and the country). The difference with regard to other polls is that the CIS sample is massive (more than 17,000 nationwode), so on paper the projection is more adjusted. Still, some provincial results seem a bit strange to me.

The raw polling data in the CIS survey is the following:

PP 16.2%, PSOE 14.9%, Podemos + alliances 11.8%, C's 11.6%, IU (UP) 2.6%, ERC 1.7%, CDC (DL) 1.2%, EHBildu 0.7%, PNV 0.7%.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 04, 2015, 07:48:38 am
It's a pity that the CIS did not publish the predicted percentages per province, only the seats...

Also, although the predict that IU will win a seat in Asturias, is Llamazares still running there? If not, maybe the seat could be potentially lost by IU. And already, according to the prediction, they are going to lose their own grupo, so that'd be even worse...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 04, 2015, 09:36:14 am
Also, although the predict that IU will win a seat in Asturias, is Llamazares still running there? If not, maybe the seat could be potentially lost by IU. And already, according to the prediction, they are going to lose their own grupo, so that'd be even worse...

The IU candidate in Asturias is a certain Manuel González Orviz. Probably the seat is going to be hard to retain, I'd say IU has marginal chances there. Bearing in mind that Podemos got 19% in the regional election and IU 11.9% with Llamazares as candidate, I think it's more likely a second seat for Podemos in that province. Maybe the CIS is correct with the other parties (PP+FAC 3 seats, PSOE 2 and C's 1).

As for Podemos, I think they're going to perform a bit worse in Catalonia and the Basque Country than the CIS predicts. Anyway there's an extreme volatility in Catalonia.

Also, I find surprising the projection in Andalusian provinces. The CIS estimates 3 seats for Ciudadanos in Seville and Malaga and 2 in Cadiz, while Podemos gets only 1 seat in each. I can't believe that C's gets 14 seats in the region and Podemos only 5.

I wonder if the estimated result for the oranges in Madrid is not a bit exaggerated, although at this point I find plausible that C's comes second (and PSOE fourth!). In certain Castilian provinces it might happen that C's surpasses PSOE as second party and gets the last seat... But the difference could be a handful of votes, so these seats are not secure.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on December 05, 2015, 07:14:10 am
If Democràcia i Llibertat has such a poor showing in Catalunya,will it kill all possibilities of CUP voting for him as president?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 05, 2015, 01:35:36 pm
Also, although the predict that IU will win a seat in Asturias, is Llamazares still running there? If not, maybe the seat could be potentially lost by IU. And already, according to the prediction, they are going to lose their own grupo, so that'd be even worse...

The IU candidate in Asturias is a certain Manuel González Orviz. Probably the seat is going to be hard to retain, I'd say IU has marginal chances there. Bearing in mind that Podemos got 19% in the regional election and IU 11.9% with Llamazares as candidate, I think it's more likely a second seat for Podemos in that province. Maybe the CIS is correct with the other parties (PP+FAC 3 seats, PSOE 2 and C's 1).

As for Podemos, I think they're going to perform a bit worse in Catalonia and the Basque Country than the CIS predicts. Anyway there's an extreme volatility in Catalonia.

Also, I find surprising the projection in Andalusian provinces. The CIS estimates 3 seats for Ciudadanos in Seville and Malaga and 2 in Cadiz, while Podemos gets only 1 seat in each. I can't believe that C's gets 14 seats in the region and Podemos only 5.

I wonder if the estimated result for the oranges in Madrid is not a bit exaggerated, although at this point I find plausible that C's comes second (and PSOE fourth!). In certain Castilian provinces it might happen that C's surpasses PSOE as second party and gets the last seat... But the difference could be a handful of votes, so these seats are not secure.

It is surprising, but perhaps it's that C's is surfing the anti-establishment wave at the right time, whereas Podemos did it too early? In any case, indeed, a handful of votes is going to determine whether the emergent parties manage to obtain or not seats in the medium sized constituencies. A bad result and they can be screwed royally, whereas if they manage they can obtain spectacular results, the 20D is going to be an amazing night.

Catalonia is impossible to predict. In Tarragona six parties win one seat each. That's just crazy. I think the PP thinks that the danger of C's in the rural medium is very, very real, which is why they have put forward so many proposals that are only attractive to the rural voter.

If Democràcia i Llibertat has such a poor showing in Catalunya,will it kill all possibilities of CUP voting for him as president?

So far, and until the 27th of December, when the CUP's National Assembly meets, they won't support Mas. In any case, they probably won't support him and already JxS is tearing itself apart and the CDC leaders (Homs, Mas Colell) are backpedaling faster than Indurain ever did... So most likely option? Elections again in Catalonia in early 2016.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on December 11, 2015, 06:07:37 am
At last,according to CIS,voters are identifying Ciudadanos as a center-right party.
On a range from 0 (hard left) to 10 (hard right),it has passed in the last year from 5,17 to 6,37.
PSOE is around 4,PP around 8(!!).

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/12/10/actualidad/1449775061_273418.html (http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/12/10/actualidad/1449775061_273418.html)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 11, 2015, 09:10:42 am
Spain is strange country.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 11, 2015, 04:13:59 pm
Spain is strange country.

How so?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Beezer on December 12, 2015, 05:10:45 am
Scholarly text on Ciudadanos, in case anyone's interested: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13608746.2015.1119646


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 13, 2015, 01:18:41 pm
Spain is strange country.

How so?

For me Ciudadanos are rather centre-left not centre right. But that is the matter of different perspective probably.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 13, 2015, 03:07:44 pm
Mostly they're just populist garbage. But when the other parties on offer are borderline criminal conspiracies or actual cults (sometimes both!) I guess the appeal is no great mystery.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MaxQue on December 13, 2015, 04:51:33 pm
Spain is strange country.

How so?

For me Ciudadanos are rather centre-left not centre right. But that is the matter of different perspective probably.

Well, not everyone is on the far-right like you.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 14, 2015, 05:09:41 am
Depiction of this legislature:

(
Img
)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Ex-Assemblyman Steelers on December 14, 2015, 08:48:02 pm
Spain is strange country.

How so?

For me Ciudadanos are rather centre-left not centre right. But that is the matter of different perspective probably.

Well, not everyone is on the far-right like you.

touche!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 15, 2015, 06:51:20 am
Andorra's El Periòdic d'Andorra is polling these days and until Sunday the changing preferences in music tastes in Spain, since publishing polls is not allowed this week.

La PPuerta de Alcalá 25,4% (104-108 encuestados)
Una Rosa es Una Rosa 20,9% (81-85 encuestados)
Ghostbusters – The Purples 19% (63-67 encuestados)
Ciudadanos de un lugar llamado Mundo 17,2% (57-61 encuestados)
La Unión – Vuelve el Amor 4,8% (3-5 encuestados)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 15, 2015, 07:03:13 am
lmao, that's amazing


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Beezer on December 15, 2015, 07:38:06 am
Any reason for the recent Podemos spike?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on December 15, 2015, 08:10:26 am
lmao, that's amazing
Happens all the time in Italy,with horseraces instead of music tastes.

Anyway,I read that Sanchez went all-in in yesterday's debate...
"Spain needs a decent PM,and you (Rajoy) are not a decent person".


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 15, 2015, 01:27:27 pm
Any reason for the recent Podemos spike?

Emotional  appeal , effective campaign, good performance in debates, the  effect oficial regional alliances , mistakes made  by rivals... we  have a volatile scenario and  many undecided voters , so any event in the campaign may   change the parties fortunes in one way or another ...




Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 16, 2015, 08:36:57 am
Today, El Periodic decided to report on the preferences (and prices) of Andorrans in the street markets of Andorra la Vella. About 700-750 people went to the market today.

The number of stands selling each product are in between brackets.

The prices are outrageous though.

Water 25.4€ (106-110)
Strawberries 20.6€ (81-85)
Aubergines 19.6€ (66-70)
Oranges 16.3€ (54-58)
Tomatoes 4.5€ (3-5)

Data provided by the Gestora Estatal de Suministros y Oferta de Productos (GESOP).

It remains hard to believe that the price of oranges can go down so quickly in two days or that the price of aubergines can skyrocket so quickly. We'll have to wait until the shops close for Sunday to know


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 16, 2015, 08:51:35 am
Wow, the tomato salesmen are going to regret not bundling their wares with the aubergines. RIP TOMATOES

seriously though, did Riviera kill a puppy or something?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 16, 2015, 09:17:21 am
Wow, the tomato salesmen are going to regret not bundling their wares with the aubergines. RIP TOMATOES

seriously though, did Riviera kill a puppy or something?

Could be the polling, could be a bad polling day, could be some bias... It's hard to tell. Especially since many, many voters won't decide until last moment.

It's indeed unlikely that they are collapsing so fast... but they have made some stupid mistakes last week with the whole gender violence comments on the debate of 9 parties last week. My personal opinion is that C's, PSOE and Podemos will be neck on neck in between 22-18% of the votes, with the PSOE most likely to remain (narrowly in terms of votes, not so on seats) the second one.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 16, 2015, 09:27:43 am
The fact that the anti-PP vote is so divided pretty much assures the PP control of the Senate, right?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 16, 2015, 09:40:57 am
The fact that the anti-PP vote is so divided pretty much assures the PP control of the Senate, right?

According to this article (http://www.abc.es/elecciones/elecciones-generales/abci-mayoria-absoluta-pp-senado-podria-clave-proxima-legislatura-201512132243_noticia.html), it is rather likely. Although the Senate uses SNTV, not FPTP. That the Senate would be controlled by the PP is not a problem for ordinary laws, it is however a major problem for constitutional reform or the application of Article 155.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: coloniac on December 16, 2015, 02:12:51 pm
El Pais were leading today with a story on Rajoy backing a PP-C's coalition, which I think is what put people off oranges. Why would you buy oranges only to realise they are filled with bland, tastless water?  

I'm going to go ahead and predict a PP minority government.

Scholarly text on Ciudadanos, in case anyone's interested: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13608746.2015.1119646

Thanks, I think I'll write a paper on the rise of post-nationalist parties, using FDF, Ciudadanos, D66. Any others like Ciudadanos in Europe?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 16, 2015, 02:26:15 pm
El Pais were leading today with a story on Rajoy backing a PP-C's coalition, which I think is what put people off oranges. Why would you buy oranges only to realise they are filled with bland, tastless water?  

I'm going to go ahead and predict a PP minority government.

Scholarly text on Ciudadanos, in case anyone's interested: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13608746.2015.1119646

Thanks, I think I'll write a paper on the rise of post-nationalist parties, using FDF, Ciudadanos, D66. Any others like Ciudadanos in Europe?


I guess any liberal (both socially and economically) party in Europe. Like .nowoczesna in Poland. In published today poll by IBRIS they got... 30%. They increased their support by 20% during one month so I guess it is a rise. But this is special case, probably not connected with any global process.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: FredLindq on December 16, 2015, 02:48:45 pm
El Pais were leading today with a story on Rajoy backing a PP-C's coalition, which I think is what put people off oranges. Why would you buy oranges only to realise they are filled with bland, tastless water?  

I'm going to go ahead and predict a PP minority government.

Scholarly text on Ciudadanos, in case anyone's interested: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13608746.2015.1119646

Thanks, I think I'll write a paper on the rise of post-nationalist parties, using FDF, Ciudadanos, D66. Any others like Ciudadanos in Europe?


FDF?! You mean FDP in Germany?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: coloniac on December 16, 2015, 03:17:50 pm
No, I mean the Belgian party. They are now called Défi and are mainly Brussels-based. Used to be part of our mainstream centre-right.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 16, 2015, 03:29:42 pm
Could the Alliance Party of NI count?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Beezer on December 16, 2015, 04:21:27 pm
Rajoy punched by random guy on the street. Spanish Secret Service apparently asleep at the wheel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=3VwLjHG2LM8


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 17, 2015, 06:52:27 am
Today's Andorran fruit prices.

Water 26.2€ (108-112)
Strawberries 21€ (83-87)
Aubergines 20.4€ (71-75)
Oranges 15.9€ (50-54)
Tomatoes 3.7€ (2-4)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 17, 2015, 01:40:16 pm
Wow, the tomato salesmen are going to regret not bundling their wares with the aubergines. RIP TOMATOES

seriously though, did Riviera kill a puppy or something?

Interestingly, Tomato leader Alberto Garzón has a good approval rate and his rallies are crowded. However, his popularity does not guarantee a good price for the product in the market.

The difference between failure and success is number 5 (seats required to form a parliamentary group).

Maybe Aubergines didn't want to bundle heir wares with Tomatoes, because of electoral marketing strategy. According to that, they wanted to pick in the Strawberry grounds and Tomatoes didn't a lot to help.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2015, 01:44:56 pm
Today's Andorran fruit prices.

Water 26.2€ (108-112)
Strawberries 21€ (83-87)
Aubergines 20.4€ (71-75)
Oranges 15.9€ (50-54)
Tomatoes 3.7€ (2-4)

Hmm.. I guess the "Orange" surge from a couple of weeks ago is subsiding.  I thought a logical outcome of what fruits would be bought would be a "Water"+"Orange" combination.  But perhaps that is in doubt now.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 17, 2015, 03:40:06 pm
Today's Andorran fruit prices.

Water 26.2€ (108-112)
Strawberries 21€ (83-87)
Aubergines 20.4€ (71-75)
Oranges 15.9€ (50-54)
Tomatoes 3.7€ (2-4)

Hmm.. I guess the "Orange" surge from a couple of weeks ago is subsiding.  I thought a logical outcome of what fruits would be bought would be a "Water"+"Orange" combination.  But perhaps that is in doubt now.

It is. However let's be wary of just one poll. Because this is just one, with a small number of people asked (I think for this one about 600) and without time to do much (after all they are being published daily), so I think that while C's might be going down since last week, it's hard to believe it's going down at 0.4 pp. a day. It's more likely that it wont end at 19-20% as expected last week, but rather at 17-18, or at worst 16-17. Mind you, this makes the situation highly volatile, because 15% is the de facto threshold for the medium-sized constituencies and the current scenario neither PP+C's, PSOE+C's or PSOE+Podemos(+IU) would have a majority. It'd be ideal for constitutional reform, or for a brief legislature... Or for some kind of new party system coalition with the nationalists (can you imagine some weird PP+C's+PNV or PP+C's+DiL, or PSOE+Podemos+DiL??)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2015, 04:51:37 pm
Rajoy punched by random guy on the street. Spanish Secret Service apparently asleep at the wheel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=3VwLjHG2LM8

I wonder how much this helps PP?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DL on December 17, 2015, 05:13:14 pm
What is the difference in political philosophy between Podemos and IU?? Wouldnt it have made sense for IU to simply fold or merge with Podemos?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: coloniac on December 17, 2015, 06:32:30 pm
What is the difference in political philosophy between Podemos and IU?? Wouldnt it have made sense for IU to simply fold or merge with Podemos?

Podemos refuses to acknowledge their political philosophy. It remains part of a populist current that has no political philosophy, and hence this gives it a certain degree of freedom to react on all issues, compared to the rigid Izquierda.

You see a similar phenomenon with the far right, whose political philosophy died or lost credibility with WW2. This initially accounted for their dismal scores but now that electoral realignment is a thing, it allows them to pick certain sections of the electorate through discourse either taken from other political factions or adapted to modern issues such as globalisation.

Like Nanwe puts it, it has to do with marketing.

But as far as I know Podemos and Izquierda Unida really don't get in each other's way as much as, say, Syriza and the KKE.

If you want core ideological differences, Podemos have a right-wing in the party dedicated more to democratisation and local decision making and social movements, while the left-wing backs this on Gramscist, Eurocommunist "reclaim the working class" grounds. Izquierda are sort of decaying Trotskyists. I haven't read much about them but they rely on their industrial working class base alone and seem proud of that.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 17, 2015, 07:19:47 pm
What is the difference in political philosophy between Podemos and IU?? Wouldnt it have made sense for IU to simply fold or merge with Podemos?

Podemos refuses to acknowledge their political philosophy. It remains part of a populist current that has no political philosophy, and hence this gives it a certain degree of freedom to react on all issues, compared to the rigid Izquierda.

You see a similar phenomenon with the far right, whose political philosophy died or lost credibility with WW2. This initially accounted for their dismal scores but now that electoral realignment is a thing, it allows them to pick certain sections of the electorate through discourse either taken from other political factions or adapted to modern issues such as globalisation.

Like Nanwe puts it, it has to do with marketing.

But as far as I know Podemos and Izquierda Unida really don't get in each other's way as much as, say, Syriza and the KKE.

If you want core ideological differences, Podemos have a right-wing in the party dedicated more to democratisation and local decision making and social movements, while the left-wing backs this on Gramscist, Eurocommunist "reclaim the working class" grounds. Izquierda are sort of decaying Trotskyists. I haven't read much about them but they rely on their industrial working class base alone and seem proud of that.

Yes, honestly, IU for as much as they want to pretend they are like in times of Anguita and whatnot, stil suffer the scars of their brief flirting with social democracy under Llamazares, and they seem pretty content with their irrelevant but right position in the incoming elections. Also, IU is not so much a party as a coalition of loads of parties, which makes internal decision-making rather byzantine, which is why open systems within IU for choosing all the deputies, like Podemos sort of does (and I say sort of, because Iglesias likes to put his cool people here and there, bypassing the assemblies) , because that would break the internal equilibrium between the various parties and groups that form IU. Garzón is a really good candidate and IU is all over the place in Twitter but they are simply seen as old. Indeed, Garzón fits better in Podemos (if further left than Iglesias, I'd say) than in the old IU... But then again IU is an old party and Garzón has done a great job at saving the party from the depths of oblivion it seemed to have reached with Cayo Lara's incompetent leadership.

But then again, IU always has this working-class (probably retired by now) people who have always voted IU (or ICV) and will do until they die inherited from when it was just the PCE. So that will always guarantee them some support, but as Velasco says, they must reach 5 seats, if they fall below that and enter the Mixed Group, they'll be politically irrelevant in Parliament, and that could mean their doom.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 17, 2015, 07:27:31 pm
I feel kinda sad that "pop" Podemos has such big support and old-school communists now have only 4% in polls. Eh, postpolitics :I


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 18, 2015, 12:13:14 am
Though, it does seem to be up to the regional groups to make coalitions or not. The Catalan and Gallican branches of IU have joined the Podemos front groups.

MEANWHILE  Rajoy's attacker seems to be a relative of his wife. Some kind of domestic squabble?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 18, 2015, 12:18:58 am
lol what is this:

Quote
An El País article described Spain's shorter, stockier, brunette Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría as a "beast" on Wednesday, comparing her to a several-inches-taller, slim, blonde Dutch top model called Milou: "The beast is Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, Deputy Prime Minister. Beast because, like in the tale, she is the one who seduces and holds the power". Journalist Cristian Segura wrote he would prefer that his daughter "chose to be the beast, more than anything else because Milou must suffer terribly to stay in that shape". He recommended Milou fatten up a bit by eating some "calorific" Spanish chick-pea stew. The two met at a photo-op for Spanish bridal wear firm Pronovias.

I love Spain, I really do; but it really has a weird attitude sometimes.
Meanwhile:

C's candidate in Cantabria proclaims that "abortion is a form of violence". Ok then.

Rajoy's marvelous response when asked about corruption allegations :  "What does that have to do with the economy?" Indeed.

My MP apparently made a deep observation about Spanish politics to a journalist: "When Nick Clegg saw the documents, he told me Cameron […] would only have lasted 'a few hours' after the publication of something that big", he writes: "But in Spain, British or North American democratic habits are conspicuously absent".

PP targets .... hipsters? https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=W_VQbsuRXl4



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Donnie on December 18, 2015, 06:56:11 am
How possible is orangewater as national drink after the election?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 18, 2015, 09:00:08 am
MEANWHILE  Rajoy's attacker seems to be a relative of his wife. Some kind of domestic squabble?

I don't  think so. That distant relative of Rajoy' s wife is just a brainless teenager. Sadly, the incident  helps PP. On the other hand , the conservative party is making a good campaign that has achieved a little miracle humanizing  Rajoy.

lol what is this:

Quote
An El País article described Spain's shorter, stockier, brunette Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría as a "beast" on Wednesday, comparing her to a several-inches-taller, slim, blonde Dutch top model called Milou: "The beast is Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, Deputy Prime Minister. Beast because, like in the tale, she is the one who seduces and holds the power". Journalist Cristian Segura wrote he would prefer that his daughter "chose to be the beast, more than anything else because Milou must suffer terribly to stay in that shape". He recommended Milou fatten up a bit by eating some "calorific" Spanish chick-pea stew. The two met at a photo-op for Spanish bridal wear firm Pronovias.

I love Spain, I really do; but it really has a weird attitude sometimes.
Meanwhile:

C's candidate in Cantabria proclaims that "abortion is a form of violence". Ok then.

Rajoy's marvelous response when asked about corruption allegations :  "What does that have to do with the economy?" Indeed.

My MP apparently made a deep observation about Spanish politics to a journalist: "When Nick Clegg saw the documents, he told me Cameron […] would only have lasted 'a few hours' after the publication of something that big", he writes: "But in Spain, British or North American democratic habits are conspicuously absent".

PP targets .... hipsters? https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=W_VQbsuRXl4



That article is really weird, but  I don't judge  the attitude of Americans according to what  Rush  Limbaugh  says .

The statements of that C's candidate and some stances on gender violence suggest that maybe oranges don't fit  exactly in the 'social liberal' label .

Rajoy's response speaks for itself and reflects a mentality. Shame.

Funnily enough the bearded guy in the video is not really a hipster but  a PP  councilor  devotee of the Virgin  of El  Rocío  and bullfighting aficionado.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 18, 2015, 09:22:53 am
Could an Orange is the New Blue coalition push out Rajoy in favour of a more palatable PM? (Santamaria?)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 18, 2015, 09:55:30 am
Water 25.8€ (107-111)
Strawberries 21.4€ (83-87)
Aubergines 20.4€ (71-75)
Oranges 16€ (50-54)
Tomatoes 3.8€ (2-4)

Today's polling.

I honestly do think that Ciudadanos is a social liberal party, however a) it's a new party ans has it still has to create discipline in its ranks and also, there's a certain difference between Ciudadanos and Ciutadans.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 18, 2015, 12:24:37 pm
Rajoy's marvelous response when asked about corruption allegations :  "What does that have to do with the economy?" Indeed.

That may have made my day...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 18, 2015, 09:55:41 pm
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Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 18, 2015, 09:56:45 pm
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Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 19, 2015, 04:03:48 am
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European elections

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Local (for bigger cities) and regional elections.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 19, 2015, 08:41:33 am
Market prices in Andorra today:

Water 26.6 (111-115 stands )

Strawberries 20.8 (82-86)

Aubergines 20.1 (70-74)

Oranges  15.5  (47-51)

Tomatoes  4.4 (2-4)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 19, 2015, 09:02:02 am
What are the main party pledges/platforms?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Sol on December 19, 2015, 06:07:41 pm
Why is Asturias so left-wing?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ObserverIE on December 19, 2015, 06:12:49 pm
Why is Asturias so left-wing?

Coal and heavy industries, early exposure to Franquismo.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asturias#History (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asturias#History)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DL on December 19, 2015, 06:55:02 pm
Why is Murcia such an island of blue in an otherwise red south of Spain?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DavidB. on December 20, 2015, 06:19:43 am
Scholarly text on Ciudadanos, in case anyone's interested: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13608746.2015.1119646
Interesting, thanks.

Thanks, I think I'll write a paper on the rise of post-nationalist parties, using FDF, Ciudadanos, D66. Any others like Ciudadanos in Europe?
Austrian NEOS.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: RedPrometheus on December 20, 2015, 07:57:10 am
Is there any place to see the results?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 07:58:34 am
Madrid (DPA) -- The northern Spanish village of Villarroya completes its voting in Sunday's parliamentary elections within a minute, before most of the country's polling stations had even opened.
There are six registered voters in the village, out of a population of six, all of whom had agreed to meet at the polls as soon as they opened, a local spokesman said.
Their action broke a 2014 record in European Parliament voting, when they needed two minutes for everyone to vote.

-> Sounds a lot like Dixville Notch, New Hampshire


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 20, 2015, 08:20:18 am
Tonight's last report from Andorra:

Water 26.6 (112-116)

Aubergines 21.4  (80-84)

Strawberries 20.1 (76-80)

Oranges 15.3  (45-49)

Tomatoes 4 (1-3)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 09:31:35 am
37% OF SPAIN ELECTORATE VOTED AS OF 2PM, PRELIMINARY DATA SHOW


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 20, 2015, 10:07:58 am
37% OF SPAIN ELECTORATE VOTED AS OF 2PM, PRELIMINARY DATA SHOW

2015: 37.03%
2011: 37.88%

Total turnout in 2011: 69%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Donnie on December 20, 2015, 10:08:56 am
Turnout at 2 P.M: 37.02% (2011: 37.88% -final 68.94%)  (2008: 40.46% -final 73.85%)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tender Branson on December 20, 2015, 10:19:45 am
My predictions:

Water 27.5%
Strawberries 21.6%
Aubergines 19.9%
Oranges 15.2%
Tomatoes 3.9%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 20, 2015, 10:43:09 am
I'm not going to predict seats or anything, but I will say:

Orange-flavoured water coalition. Aubergines more popular than strawberries. Tomatoes disappear in the mixed group. UpyD get below the animal rights party. ERC randomly beats CDC in Catalonia, with Cataln strawberries and water in single digits. Christ knows what happens in Basque areas, but I'm going to say Podemos beat Bildu for second. Podemos win Valencia. Madrid is C's second best area. Andulacia held by PSOE.

Then C's undergo a Lib Dem like collapse while in government and are outfoxed by PP in every relevant way. Rajoy and Rivera spectacularly mishandle Catalonia, and it slips away before the next election. I assume they will also (somehow) alienate every other vaguely powerful nationalist as well with their heavy handedness (Basques and Galica have elections next year, I see :) ). Podemos experiences a leftist revolt against Pablo (possibly involving the radical mayors?), and are quashed. PSOE undergoes sould-searching and chaos, and the Australasian Premier replaces Sanchez. All remaining talent in IU and their regional parties jump to Podemos led front groups.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Donnie on December 20, 2015, 10:46:24 am
final prediction:

Water             28%
Aubergines    21%
Strawberries  20%
Oranges         14%

turnout: 67%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Khristie Kreme Donuts on December 20, 2015, 12:00:24 pm
The predictions here all seem to think that water costs more than the market indicates. Does water have a history of being undervalued by the market or something?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on December 20, 2015, 12:03:59 pm
PP 26%
PSOE 23%
Podemos 20%
Ciudadanos 16%
IU 4%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 12:35:44 pm
 Turnout 58.3% at 6pm vs 57.7% in 2011, Govt Says


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Double Carpet on December 20, 2015, 12:52:20 pm
Official results will appear here:

http://resultadosgenerales2015.interior.es/congreso/#/ES201512-CON-ES/ES

Does anyone have a link for streaming TV coverage online that won't be geoblocked?

Thanks!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Double Carpet on December 20, 2015, 01:02:39 pm
ok, found this:

http://www.rtve.es/directo/canal-24h/

RTVe 1 seems to be geoblocked?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on December 20, 2015, 01:52:59 pm
Hi guys! I'm back to follow this.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 02:01:04 pm
So Podemos more votes than PSOE but less MPs? Lol.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on December 20, 2015, 02:05:13 pm
RTVe has PP + C's eight seats short of a majority

Oh dear...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on December 20, 2015, 02:06:24 pm
RTVe has PP + C's eight seats short of a majority

Oh dear...
Not even a grosse koalition...a huge coalition would be needed then.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Double Carpet on December 20, 2015, 02:08:43 pm
Gut feel but may be wrong:

Wouldn't be surprised if exits have understated PP and overstated Podemos compared to final result.

So PP minority govt with conf & supply from C's plus one or two nationalists may be possible.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on December 20, 2015, 02:09:00 pm
Where are you following the results? The Interior website still has 0% counted.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 02:11:08 pm
http://www.rtve.es/directo/canal-24h/
Link from the previous page : )


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on December 20, 2015, 02:16:55 pm
http://www.rtve.es/directo/canal-24h/
Link from the previous page : )

It's not working for me...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 02:19:33 pm
RTVe has PP + C's eight seats short of a majority

Oh dear...

Perhaps PP-Socialist grand alliance to keep out P and separatists


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DavidB. on December 20, 2015, 02:31:51 pm
Options:
- PP + PSOE; both corrupt, power-hungry parties that want to ensure the government's "job machine" will stay within the same hands
- PP + C's + some nationalist MPs (not all parties have to be in the govt, could be minority)
- PSOE + Podemos + C's (not all parties have to be in the govt, could be minority)
- New elections?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clarko95 on December 20, 2015, 02:43:01 pm
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-election-exit-polls-idUSKBN0U30UB20151220?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews


Reuters is calling it a "win" for PP, which is a bit strange because now they have to cede a lot of their agenda, especially if it's with the Socialists.

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Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 02:51:48 pm
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Some exit polls for Catalonia and Basque Country.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ObserverIE on December 20, 2015, 02:55:32 pm
Options:
- PP + C's + some nationalist MPs (not all parties have to be in the govt, could be minority)

Do Bildu take their seats in the Cortes?

Apart from the Canarian Coalition, who may or may not take a seat, none of the remaining nationalist parties are likely to find a PP/C arrangement palatable.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 20, 2015, 03:05:00 pm
Options:
- PP + C's + some nationalist MPs (not all parties have to be in the govt, could be minority)

Do Bildu take their seats in the Cortes?

Apart from the Canarian Coalition, who may or may not take a seat, none of the remaining nationalist parties are likely to find a PP/C arrangement palatable.

Yes , Bildu MPs will  take their seats.

No way. Only CC could support such arrangement. It'd be a PP minority government in any case.

Booths closed in the Canaries at 8:00 GMT. From now on, official results will appear in the Interior website.

LOL Convergencia  :D


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 03:08:44 pm
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Some exit polls for Catalonia and Basque Country.
En Comu is Podemos in Catalonia, isn't it?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 03:10:04 pm
Podemos (or rather Podem) + Allies.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 20, 2015, 03:11:48 pm
Yes . En Comu Podem is Podemos , ICV , EUiA (IU) and Barcelona en Comu.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 03:13:19 pm
Podemos (or rather Podem) + Allies.
Yes . En Comu Podem is Podemos , ICV , EUiA (IU) and Barcelona en Comu.
Thanks.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 03:16:39 pm
Largest party in each region so far.
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Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 20, 2015, 03:18:39 pm
Voters choose chaos it is then.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 03:20:28 pm
PSOE so far doing better than polls and exit polls,  C doing worse.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 03:22:40 pm
As it stands, PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos could form a majority collation - from what I understand all three are left of centre (Podemos being most left wing). Is this plausible though?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 03:25:24 pm
As it stands, PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos could form a majority collation - from what I understand all three are left of centre (Podemos being most left wing). Is this plausible though?

I doubt C will join up with Podemos.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 20, 2015, 03:27:11 pm
Count at 25%:

PP 125 seats , PSOE 96,  Podemos 63, Ciudadanos 31, DL 9, ERC 9, PNV 6, UP (IU) 2

As it stands, PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos could form a majority collation - from what I understand all three are left of centre (Podemos being most left wing). Is this plausible though?

Ciudadanos is right of the centre and won 't support such arrangement because Podemos is in favour of holding a referendum in Catalonia.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 03:27:41 pm
As it stands, PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos could form a majority collation - from what I understand all three are left of centre (Podemos being most left wing). Is this plausible though?
What do you understand?
PSOE are centre-left, Podemos are left wing and Ciudadanos are centre-left; People's Party are centre-right. The question being is it plausible that those three could do a deal with each other to keep the People's Party out.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 03:29:23 pm
As it stands, PSOE, Podemos and Ciudadanos could form a majority collation - from what I understand all three are left of centre (Podemos being most left wing). Is this plausible though?
Ciudadanos is right of the centre and won 't support such arrangement because Podemos is in favour of holding a referendum in Catalonia.
Fair enough.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 03:32:08 pm
32,71% counted

PP 121
PSOE 95
Podemos 54
C's 31


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 03:32:23 pm
So far PP-C and PSOE-Podemos are exactly tied in seats at 155 ... wow


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 03:33:36 pm
32,71% counted

PP 121
PSOE 95
Podemos 54
C's 31

Should not COMPROMÍS-PODEMOS-ÉS EL MOMENT also count toward the Podemos ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 03:34:44 pm
 PSOE-Podemos now pulling ahead of PP-C in terms of seats


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 03:36:39 pm
PSOE-Podemos now pulling ahead of PP-C in terms of seats
Still not a majority though, some of the smaller parties may become important in determining who forms the government.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 03:37:58 pm
32,71% counted

PP 121
PSOE 95
Podemos 54
C's 31

Should not COMPROMÍS-PODEMOS-ÉS EL MOMENT also count toward the Podemos ?

They should, missed them.

40,10%
PP 118
PSOE 96
Podemos 64
C's 31


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 20, 2015, 03:38:45 pm
Seats with count at 42.7%

PP 122, PSOE 98, Podemos 70, Ciudadanos 31, DL 9, ERC 9, PNV 6, IU 2


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 03:40:03 pm
Seats with count at 42.7%

PP 122, PSOE 98, Podemos 70, Ciudadanos 31, DL 9, ERC 9, PNV 6, IU 2
PSOE+Pod = 168 (8 short of majority)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 03:40:21 pm
Anyone have any idea why if you add up seats in

http://resultadosgenerales2015.interior.es/congreso/#/ES201512-CON-ES/ES

it comes out to 343 but there are 350 seats overall.  Are 7 reserved for various Spanish territories in other time zones ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on December 20, 2015, 03:45:42 pm
Anyone have any idea why if you add up seats in

http://resultadosgenerales2015.interior.es/congreso/#/ES201512-CON-ES/ES

it comes out to 343 but there are 350 seats overall.  Are 7 reserved for various Spanish territories in other time zones ?

On the graphic on the top left if you put your mouse over the furthest right part of the semicircle, which is in grey, it says "7 sin asignar" which means "7 unassigned". Now I don't know why those 7 seats haven't been given to any party yet but that is what it says.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 03:49:39 pm
Anyone have any idea why if you add up seats in

http://resultadosgenerales2015.interior.es/congreso/#/ES201512-CON-ES/ES

it comes out to 343 but there are 350 seats overall.  Are 7 reserved for various Spanish territories in other time zones ?
It's gone from the graphic now, might have been an error(?)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 03:49:52 pm
52,04%

PP 124, PSOE 96, Podemos 64, Ciudadanos 31, DL 9, ERC 9, PNV 6, IU 2

I am amazed how fast they are counting that votes, in Poland we have partial results after midnight or later :I


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 03:50:07 pm
Anyone have any idea why if you add up seats in

http://resultadosgenerales2015.interior.es/congreso/#/ES201512-CON-ES/ES

it comes out to 343 but there are 350 seats overall.  Are 7 reserved for various Spanish territories in other time zones ?

On the graphic on the top left if you put your mouse over the furthest right part of the semicircle, which is in grey, it says "7 sin asignar" which means "7 unassigned". Now I don't know why those 7 seats haven't been given to any party yet but that is what it says.

Thanks a bunch.  It seems all 7 are "assigned" now.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on December 20, 2015, 03:50:49 pm
2 network live streams not geoblocked (in Spanish)

http://www.cuatro.com/en-directo/

http://www.lasexta.com/


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 03:53:17 pm
Looks like PP-C is coming back a bit.  They might catch up.  It will depend on Madrid it seems.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 03:55:59 pm
62% counted, no way. How is it possible? HOW (rhetoric question).
PP 125, PSOE 94, Podemos 62, Ciudadanos 34

Orange water up.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 03:57:36 pm
62% counted, no way. How is it possible? HOW (rhetoric question).
PP 125, PSOE 94, Podemos 62, Ciudadanos 34

Orange water up.
PP+C = 159
PSOE+Pod = 156


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on December 20, 2015, 03:59:12 pm
62% counted, no way. How is it possible? HOW (rhetoric question).
PP 125, PSOE 94, Podemos 62, Ciudadanos 34

Orange water up.
PP+C = 159
PSOE+Pod = 156

Podemos has 69 not 62.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 04:00:52 pm
62% counted, no way. How is it possible? HOW (rhetoric question).
PP 125, PSOE 94, Podemos 62, Ciudadanos 34

Orange water up.
PP+C = 159
PSOE+Pod = 156

Podemos has 69 not 62.
That would put PSOE+Podemos at 163.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 04:01:42 pm
PSOE+Podemos 163 PP-C 159.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 20, 2015, 04:02:29 pm
What is CATSI? (As in, ERC-CATSI?)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 04:02:37 pm
62% counted, no way. How is it possible? HOW (rhetoric question).
PP 125, PSOE 94, Podemos 62, Ciudadanos 34

Orange water up.
PP+C = 159
PSOE+Pod = 156

Podemos has 69 not 62.

As for 66,78% counted they still have 62.
PP 123 PSOE 94 C's 36


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 04:03:22 pm
PSOE+Podemos 161 PP-C 160 !!!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 04:04:06 pm
Results seems to be converging toward exit polls results


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on December 20, 2015, 04:05:53 pm
62% counted, no way. How is it possible? HOW (rhetoric question).
PP 125, PSOE 94, Podemos 62, Ciudadanos 34

Orange water up.
PP+C = 159
PSOE+Pod = 156

Podemos has 69 not 62.

As for 66,78% counted they still have 62.
PP 123 PSOE 94 C's 36


41+12+9+6=68. Yes?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DL on December 20, 2015, 04:07:05 pm
PSOE+Podemos 161 PP-C 160 !!!

But if you add the 2 seats for IU - you get PSOE+Podemos+Iu at 163 - but does it actually matter at all who has more seats PP+C or PSOE+PODEMOS+IU - anyweay you slice it the balance of power is with regional partyies


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 20, 2015, 04:08:41 pm
If it's dependent on regional parties, C's will never be part of the government.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 04:10:31 pm
I am disgusted by the speed of votes counting. Seriously.
75%
PPC's - 160, PSOEDEMOS - 162


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: coloniac on December 20, 2015, 04:11:16 pm
Options:
- PP + PSOE; both corrupt, power-hungry parties that want to ensure the government's "job machine" will stay within the same hands
- PP + C's + some nationalist MPs (not all parties have to be in the govt, could be minority)
- PSOE + Podemos + C's (not all parties have to be in the govt, could be minority)
- New elections?

PP and C will not ally with nationalists. They just signed a pact reiterating their opposition to Catalan devolution, which is what harmed C's in peripheries like Andalucia. Anybody who jumps into bed with Rajoy is a pariah to nationalists.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 04:12:44 pm
PSOE+Podemos 161 PP-C 160 !!!

But if you add the 2 seats for IU - you get PSOE+Podemos+Iu at 163 - but does it actually matter at all who has more seats PP+C or PSOE+PODEMOS+IU - anyweay you slice it the balance of power is with regional partyies

Of course, although I do feel the bloc (PSOE+Podemos or PP-C) that comes ahead will have the advantage when it comes to government formation.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on December 20, 2015, 04:13:43 pm
PSOE+Podemos 161 PP-C 160 !!!

But if you add the 2 seats for IU - you get PSOE+Podemos+Iu at 163 - but does it actually matter at all who has more seats PP+C or PSOE+PODEMOS+IU - anyweay you slice it the balance of power is with regional partyies

Of course, although I do feel the bloc (PSOE+Podemos or PP-C) that comes ahead will have the advantage when it comes to government formation.
Seeing how much the landscape is changing, I don't think this reasoning is really true, this time.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 04:13:48 pm
From the Spanish TV network:
(
Img
)

Who are IU-UP?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 20, 2015, 04:14:03 pm
To be fair, PP are running common lists with regionalismts in Aragorn, Asturias and Navarre.

Why has Artur Mas's party flopped so badly?

IU are commies, clyde


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DL on December 20, 2015, 04:15:41 pm
Any chance of a PSOE/Posemos/C government with PP in opposition?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 04:15:58 pm
To be fair, PP are running common lists with regionalismts in Aragorn, Asturias and Navarre.

Why has Artur Mas's party flopped so badly?

IU are commies, clyde
Thanks.

Possibly ERC haven't done so well, as the pro-independence Catalans are putting their support being Podemos in the hope of getting a referendum?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: coloniac on December 20, 2015, 04:16:06 pm
From the Spanish TV network:
(
Img
)

Who are IU-UP?

Izquierda Unida and an affiliate.

Funny how they form the colours of the Republican flag.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 04:20:46 pm
80%
PPC's - 160 PSOE-Pod. 161
UPyD still loses to the animal party with cute cow/bull on logo


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Oh Jeremy Corbyn! on December 20, 2015, 04:20:54 pm
To be fair, PP are running common lists with regionalismts in Aragorn, Asturias and Navarre.

Why has Artur Mas's party flopped so badly?

IU are commies, clyde
Thanks.

Possibly ERC haven't done so well, as the pro-independence Catalans are putting their support being Podemos in the hope of getting a referendum?

ERC is not Mas' party.  That would be DiL.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: coloniac on December 20, 2015, 04:20:56 pm
How many of the 9 seats from ERC-Catalunya so que ES pot on the list are part of Podemos (the latter, so que ES pot is Podemos in Catalonia)?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on December 20, 2015, 04:21:45 pm
Any chance of a PSOE/Posemos/C government with PP in opposition?
We're pretty much all in the dark here.

Left-wing, in any way : PSOE+Podemos+ERC+IU-UP(Izquierda Unida - Unidad Popular)+EHBildu = 173
Right-wing, in any way : PP+C's+DiL+EAJ/PNV+CC = 177, but it's impossible.

Absolute majority at 176.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: coloniac on December 20, 2015, 04:23:43 pm
Guys, nationalists cannot be separated into left or right camps, and this isn't like Scandinavian election where all the left or right aggregate. This is a first in Spain and we should treat it as such. There is no way the left-right divide stands though.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 20, 2015, 04:24:26 pm
Any chance of a PSOE/Posemos/C government with PP in opposition?

It would put C's in a tight spot. (well any government would put C's in a tight spot, considering they are a transparently vacant party) PODEMOS support a referendum in Catalonia, which C's oppose under all circumstances.

I've gotta admit a lot of my predictions were right, but the closeness still surprises me. Perhaps Sanchez will be PM, although I doubt he will be for very long.

It seems the key is DL/PNV IMO. I wonder what demands they will make of the government?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 04:26:01 pm
To be fair, PP are running common lists with regionalismts in Aragorn, Asturias and Navarre.

Why has Artur Mas's party flopped so badly?

IU are commies, clyde
Thanks.

Possibly ERC haven't done so well, as the pro-independence Catalans are putting their support being Podemos in the hope of getting a referendum?

ERC is not Mas' party.  That would be DiL.
Just checked Mas's CDC is part of the DiL alliance (as you say), which is where I got muddled.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 20, 2015, 04:29:30 pm
Wow El Pais wbsite gives results down to municipality. that's hot as fyck


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 04:31:57 pm
PSOE+Podemos 162 (42.81% vote share) PP-C 160 (42.36% vote share)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 04:33:16 pm
Why is the Senate election producing a PP majority, with Podemos and C's getting next to nothing?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 04:33:44 pm
Why is the Senate election producing a PP majority, with Podemos and C's getting next to nothing?

Most likely FPTP


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 20, 2015, 04:34:06 pm
That map on El Pais looks bad. Why people do such things. Worse than UK map made from hexes on BBC as far as I remember.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 04:35:11 pm
PSOE+Podemos 161 PP-C 161


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 04:36:29 pm
PSOE+Podemos 160 (42.59%) PP-C 162 (42.43%)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Clyde1998 on December 20, 2015, 04:36:36 pm
Why is the Senate election producing a PP majority, with Podemos and C's getting next to nothing?

Most likely FPTP
That would explain it - I didn't realise it was FPTP.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 20, 2015, 04:38:19 pm
Why is the Senate election producing a PP majority, with Podemos and C's getting next to nothing?

demented bloc voting system. It mainly is a problem if the parties wanted to jig the constitution (like, for instance, changing the demented voting system or abolishing the useless upper house, which is worthless even by other nation's upper house's standards. Bicameralism is a plague.)

(also for some reason, only 10% of the Senate votes have been counted, while 80% of the lower house has)

That map on El Pais looks bad. Why people do such things. Worse than UK map made from hexes on BBC as far as I remember.

graphic designers need work, i guess.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on December 20, 2015, 04:52:01 pm
For the Senate : "Each voter may mark up to three candidates' names, from any party. This is the only occasion when Spanish voters vote for individuals rather than a party list. Panachage is allowed, but typically voters cast all three votes for candidates of a single party. As a result, the four Senators are usually the three candidates from the most popular party and the first placed candidate from the next most popular."

Four senators are elected for each province, regardless of population.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 04:56:48 pm
PSOE+Podemos 160 (42.71%) PP-C 162 (42.57%)

It is interesting how close the vote shares are as well.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: coloniac on December 20, 2015, 05:00:26 pm
PSOE+Podemos 160 (42.71%) PP-C 162 (42.57%)

It is interesting how close the vote shares are as well.

Again, it doesn't work like that though. I thought the whole point of these elections was the end of bipartisanship. TVE are just stuck in their paradigm.

Can I also have a source where Rivera states PP is his preferred coalition partner.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 20, 2015, 05:04:07 pm
Well, if we follow from the elections in May, C's are more likely to support PP governments' and C's agenda (heavy income and corporate tax cuts; municipal reduction; Austrian labour laws etc.) would be very hard to implement with PSOE and PODEMOS as partners ...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on December 20, 2015, 05:04:08 pm
I still think PSOE and Podemos could gather enough support with Catalan (and Basque ?) nationalists to form government on promises of referendum(s). It's the only shot at an absolute majority, anyway. I don't think PSOE+Podemos+C's is manageable.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 05:07:28 pm
PSOE+Podemos 160 (42.71%) PP-C 162 (42.57%)

It is interesting how close the vote shares are as well.

Again, it doesn't work like that though. I thought the whole point of these elections was the end of bipartisanship. TVE are just stuck in their paradigm.

Can I also have a source where Rivera states PP is his preferred coalition partner.

Well, lets accept that it is much more likely Podemos will ally with PSOE and it is much more likely that C will ally with PP.  I am not saying it is destined to take place.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 05:17:12 pm
PSOE+Podemos 161 (42.68%) PP-C 161 (42.62%)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Donnie on December 20, 2015, 05:21:51 pm
With 97.33 % counted:

PSOE+Podemos 161 seats (42.67%)        PP+C's 161 seats (42.62%)



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 20, 2015, 05:22:32 pm
I bet KIng Felipe is dreading the next two months ...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 05:23:58 pm
PP deputy PM Soraya Saenz de Santamaria said that PP "has won election."  I guess this is part of the jockeying for position in the battle of government formation.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on December 20, 2015, 05:24:25 pm
Izquierda Unida gets slaughtered, even with their last minute rebranding as Unidad Popular : they don't get any deputy in either Andalucía or Asturias for example, just 2 seats in the seat-rich Madrid. That's brutal, but they had already survived that in 2008 to come back in 2011. With the uprising of Podemos, however, a come-back should prove waaaay harder.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 05:25:17 pm
Back to PSOE+Podemos 160  PP-C 162


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: RodPresident on December 20, 2015, 05:29:10 pm
Back to PSOE+Podemos 160  PP-C 162
You should put Unidad Popular with left-wing bloc.
Kingmakers will be Catalonian separatists.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 05:33:12 pm
Back to PSOE+Podemos 160  PP-C 162
You should put Unidad Popular with left-wing bloc.
Kingmakers will be Catalonian separatists.

Would Podemos and  Unidad Popular accept being in the same ruling coalition ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on December 20, 2015, 05:45:29 pm
Back to PSOE+Podemos 160  PP-C 162
You should put Unidad Popular with left-wing bloc.
Kingmakers will be Catalonian separatists.

Would Podemos and  Unidad Popular accept being in the same ruling coalition ?
Yeah, that one shouldn't really be a problem. Of course, we would only be talking of support anyway.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: coloniac on December 20, 2015, 05:48:21 pm
PSOE+Podemos 160 (42.71%) PP-C 162 (42.57%)

It is interesting how close the vote shares are as well.

Again, it doesn't work like that though. I thought the whole point of these elections was the end of bipartisanship. TVE are just stuck in their paradigm.

Can I also have a source where Rivera states PP is his preferred coalition partner.

Well, lets accept that it is much more likely Podemos will ally with PSOE and it is much more likely that C will ally with PP.  I am not saying it is destined to take place.

No, it really isn't though, unless you follow TVE, who are still stuck in bipartisan logic.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 20, 2015, 05:51:10 pm
What are the Basques Nationalists main aims? I find it very odd how quiet the Basque areas have been irt the looming breakup of the Spanish state...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: coloniac on December 20, 2015, 05:56:15 pm
What are the Basques Nationalists main aims? I find it very odd how quiet the Basque areas have been irt the looming breakup of the Spanish state...

They already fulfilled them, largely thanks to the ETA. The PNV would like a federal system that allows them to represent Basque interests only in national politics. Bildu want a socialist (or non-neoliberal) state in the same way CC and Esquerra Republicana.

As long as they keep their extra national politics, administration and policing they will be happy though.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 06:00:21 pm
How hard-line will PP and C be about not doing deals with nationalists forces?  Did not a PP administration with support from nationalists come to power after the 1996 elections ?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 20, 2015, 06:02:13 pm
I still think PSOE and Podemos could gather enough support with Catalan (and Basque ?) nationalists to form government on promises of referendum(s). It's the only shot at an absolute majority, anyway. I don't think PSOE+Podemos+C's is manageable.

No. I don't see Pedro Sánchez leading a very weak government propped up by Catalan separatists on the promise of a referendum in Catalonia . That would tear PSOE apart  and  Andalusian premier Susana Díaz  would never allow such a move .

Right now, I can hardly see a way to prevent another election within a few months.







Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 20, 2015, 06:05:44 pm
What are the Basques Nationalists main aims? I find it very odd how quiet the Basque areas have been irt the looming breakup of the Spanish state...

They already fulfilled them, largely thanks to the ETA. The PNV would like a federal system that allows them to represent Basque interests only in national politics. Bildu want a socialist (or non-neoliberal) state in the same way CC and Esquerra Republicana.

As long as they keep their extra national politics, administration and policing they will be happy though.

But weren't CiU non-separatist until the economic crash? Could PNV be radiclaised by am Artur Mas like figure?

Are Coalico Compromis separatists? They are on a list with PODEMOS, so I assumed they were more soft nationalists.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Donnie on December 20, 2015, 06:06:26 pm
With 99.43% counted:

PP+C's 163 seats (42.64%)         PSOE+Podemos 159 seats (42.67%)    


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 20, 2015, 06:11:42 pm

They already fulfilled them, largely thanks to the ETA.

WTF ???!!!



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: coloniac on December 20, 2015, 06:12:29 pm
With 99.43% counted:

PP+C's 163 seats (42.64%)         PSOE+Podemos 159 seats (42.67%)    


If these groupings are posted one more time I am going to break the keyboard...

Here are all the other possibilities that are actually more probable than these pre-set alliances you've taken from TVE...

  • We head for new elections
  • PP-PSOE
  • Podemos-Ciu-PSOE


They already fulfilled them, largely thanks to the ETA.

WTF ???!!!



Similar situation to Northern Ireland. You have terrorists on your doorstep that you do not want, just find a solution that involves devolution. The violence dies down, and the problem is half-solved.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 20, 2015, 06:22:53 pm
Please don't try to build theories on subjects you ignore.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: coloniac on December 20, 2015, 06:31:56 pm
Please don't try to build theories on subjects you ignore.


I'm simply isolating the variables. Both Catalonia and Basques had strong nationalist political presence in Spain after Franco's fall. Obviously their nationalisms are different, but we can agree that Basque autonomy is at least deeper than Catalunya's? Why do you think that is, given that voters have voted for similar nationalist parties in both communities since the fall of Franco? It wouldn't be because ETA were going around the place murdering people and the Spanish government knew they had to put an end to it eventually rather than fund organizations like the GAL. That's one of the few variables that differs from Catalunya's.

I am not condoning violent protest btw.

EDIT : Just let me clarify as I was on a mobile device : somebody asked why the Basques are staying quiet (they're not, since so many voted for Podemos, who clearly want constitutional reform) and what goals Basque nationalists have. I put forward the idea that Basques were actually happy with their level of autonomy at this moment, because their demands had been met. Their demands were met and accepted largely due to the violent nature of the regional problems surrounding the Basque country, created by the ETA's presence throughout the years, whereas Catalunya has had a more gradualist approach to identity-rebuilding, devolution of powers to the Catalan parliament and autonomy. There is nothing outrageous about this.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 20, 2015, 07:54:47 pm
All in all, it's been a weird night. Turnout far lower than expected (73 vs. 77-80), "great" night for the PSOE and Podemos (even if bitter-sweet for both)l, C's really underperformed although they were also quite hurt by the electoral system and I suppose this last week when they lost a lot of momentum did not help and resulted in potential voters sating home (?). The party got 14%, which is far lower than expected by, anyone since, idk, March or so?

The creation of a government is going to be tough. Hopefully grand coalition that manages to implement constitutional, institutional and electoral reforms. Also, a consensus on education would be neat. That's my wish list :P

***

Putting some things in perspective:

(
Img
)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 20, 2015, 07:56:44 pm
Please don't try to build theories on subjects you ignore.


I'm simply isolating the variables. Both Catalonia and Basques had strong nationalist political presence in Spain after Franco's fall. Obviously their nationalisms are different, but we can agree that Basque autonomy is at least deeper than Catalunya's? Why do you think that is, given that voters have voted for similar nationalist parties in both communities since the fall of Franco? It wouldn't be because ETA were going around the place murdering people and the Spanish government knew they had to put an end to it eventually rather than fund organizations like the GAL. That's one of the few variables that differs from Catalunya's.

I am not condoning violent protest btw.

EDIT : Just let me clarify as I was on a mobile device : somebody asked why the Basques are staying quiet (they're not, since so many voted for Podemos, who clearly want constitutional reform) and what goals Basque nationalists have. I put forward the idea that Basques were actually happy with their level of autonomy at this moment, because their demands had been met. Their demands were met and accepted largely due to the violent nature of the regional problems surrounding the Basque country, created by the ETA's presence throughout the years, whereas Catalunya has had a more gradualist approach to identity-rebuilding, devolution of powers to the Catalan parliament and autonomy. There is nothing outrageous about this.

Honestly, the Basques don't have their fiscal autonomy because of ETA, but rather because of the fact that their fiscal autonomy has been a consistent part of national legislation since the 19th century in its current form, and actually dates to the Middle Ages. It wasn't repealed under Franco and it was the bare minimum for an agreement with the PNV, so, as it happens ETA did not place the same pressuring role on Madrid as most ppl would assume. ETA was not treated as a political issue, but as a law and order one.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Hash on December 20, 2015, 08:05:42 pm
Jesus, the ignorance is strong in this thread.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Simfan34 on December 20, 2015, 08:29:57 pm
A difficult result. C's seem to have underperformed, which makes things very complicated.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Famous Mortimer on December 20, 2015, 08:31:36 pm
When was the last time a European election has a clear victory followed by a coalition that made sense?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Simfan34 on December 20, 2015, 09:03:35 pm
The UK? Of course, there wasn't a coalition.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: jaichind on December 20, 2015, 11:05:12 pm
This poll

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/678587014493663233

was almost spot on.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Vosem on December 20, 2015, 11:45:04 pm
This poll

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/678587014493663233

was almost spot on.

De eso nada, amigo, es fruta.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 21, 2015, 05:55:39 am
(
Img
)

Podemos* = Podemos, En Marea (Galicia), En Comú-Podem (Catalonia), Compromís-Podem-És el Moment (Valencia)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 21, 2015, 07:44:08 am
All in all, it's been a weird night. Turnout far lower than expected (73 vs. 77-80), "great" night for the PSOE and Podemos (even if bitter-sweet for both)l, C's really underperformed although they were also quite hurt by the electoral system and I suppose this last week when they lost a lot of momentum did not help and resulted in potential voters sating home (?). The party got 14%, which is far lower than expected by, anyone since, idk, March or so?

The creation of a government is going to be tough. Hopefully grand coalition that manages to implement constitutional, institutional and electoral reforms. Also, a consensus on education would be neat. That's my wish list :P

Results are really hard to interpretate . My first impression is that we have a country that is divided in several fracture lines. To begin with, territorial breakdown is quite complex and fascinación (hhonestly, I didn't  expect the Podemos extraordinary performance in myCatalonia and the Basque Country ). Not to mention the generational gap  and many other factors that  I 'm  missing .

As for Ciudadanos, in my opinion they lost momentum because gradually they were perceived as an implicit ally for PP rather than an alternative , making their inconsistencies more evident . Their underperformance in Catalonia together with the ECP success is worthy of mention.

I think that a Grand Coalition should be dismissed .  PSOE can't support an administration headed by Rajoy , who is not a decent polítician according to Pedro Sánchez . There is a lot of media speculation right new, including the possibility of a government headed by Soraya backed by C's and with the abstention of PSOE  in the investiture . I can hardly see Rajoy quitting  just like that. I see the path to reforms blocked by the huge differences between the different forces and that PP majority in the Senate .


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 21, 2015, 08:29:40 am
The pro-reform agenda should run on a common list in the senate, under the explicit pledge of abolishing the damn thing.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Donnie on December 21, 2015, 08:52:44 am
All in all, it's been a weird night. Turnout far lower than expected (73 vs. 77-80), "great" night for the PSOE and Podemos (even if bitter-sweet for both)l, C's really underperformed although they were also quite hurt by the electoral system and I suppose this last week when they lost a lot of momentum did not help and resulted in potential voters sating home (?). The party got 14%, which is far lower than expected by, anyone since, idk, March or so?

The creation of a government is going to be tough. Hopefully grand coalition that manages to implement constitutional, institutional and electoral reforms. Also, a consensus on education would be neat. That's my wish list :P

Results are really hard to interpretate . My first impression is that we have a country that is divided in several fracture lines. To begin with, territorial breakdown is quite complex and fascinación (hhonestly, I didn't  expect the Podemos extraordinary performance in myCatalonia and the Basque Country ). Not to mention the generational gap  and many other factors that  I 'm  missing .

As for Ciudadanos, in my opinion they lost momentum because gradually they were perceived as an implicit ally for PP rather than an alternative , making their inconsistencies more evident . Their underperformance in Catalonia together with the ECP success is worthy of mention.

I think that a Grand Coalition should be dismissed .  PSOE can't support an administration headed by Rajoy , who is not a decent polítician according to Pedro Sánchez . There is a lot of media speculation right new, including the possibility of a government headed by Soraya backed by C's and with the abstention of PSOE  in the investiture . I can hardly see Rajoy quitting  just like that. I see the path to reforms blocked by the huge differences between the different forces and that PP majority in the Senate .

Parlamentary elections without a threshold (min. 5%) end like that...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on December 21, 2015, 09:02:05 am
What's exactly the role of the Senate?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on December 21, 2015, 09:04:35 am
All in all, it's been a weird night. Turnout far lower than expected (73 vs. 77-80), "great" night for the PSOE and Podemos (even if bitter-sweet for both)l, C's really underperformed although they were also quite hurt by the electoral system and I suppose this last week when they lost a lot of momentum did not help and resulted in potential voters sating home (?). The party got 14%, which is far lower than expected by, anyone since, idk, March or so?

The creation of a government is going to be tough. Hopefully grand coalition that manages to implement constitutional, institutional and electoral reforms. Also, a consensus on education would be neat. That's my wish list :P

Results are really hard to interpretate . My first impression is that we have a country that is divided in several fracture lines. To begin with, territorial breakdown is quite complex and fascinación (hhonestly, I didn't  expect the Podemos extraordinary performance in myCatalonia and the Basque Country ). Not to mention the generational gap  and many other factors that  I 'm  missing .

As for Ciudadanos, in my opinion they lost momentum because gradually they were perceived as an implicit ally for PP rather than an alternative , making their inconsistencies more evident . Their underperformance in Catalonia together with the ECP success is worthy of mention.

I think that a Grand Coalition should be dismissed .  PSOE can't support an administration headed by Rajoy , who is not a decent polítician according to Pedro Sánchez . There is a lot of media speculation right new, including the possibility of a government headed by Soraya backed by C's and with the abstention of PSOE  in the investiture . I can hardly see Rajoy quitting  just like that. I see the path to reforms blocked by the huge differences between the different forces and that PP majority in the Senate .

Parlamentary elections without a threshold (min. 5%) end like that...
There's a de jure 3% threshold in every province, and of course a de facto threshold of much more than that in seat-poor provinces. It's not a threshold issue here, it's not Israel. It's an issue of a dying system still hanging on to life support and new alternatives still struggling to gain credibility.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 21, 2015, 09:34:06 am
What are the main ideas irt electoral reform from C's, podemos etc?

The Senate is needed to amend the constitution, appoint certain officials, and has a lot of theoretical power over regional relations.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 21, 2015, 10:13:34 am
PSOE will vote against Rajoy in the first investiture vote. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-21/spain-s-socialists-will-block-rajoy-s-first-bid-for-new-term)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 21, 2015, 10:48:08 am
All in all, it's been a weird night. Turnout far lower than expected (73 vs. 77-80), "great" night for the PSOE and Podemos (even if bitter-sweet for both)l, C's really underperformed although they were also quite hurt by the electoral system and I suppose this last week when they lost a lot of momentum did not help and resulted in potential voters sating home (?). The party got 14%, which is far lower than expected by, anyone since, idk, March or so?

The creation of a government is going to be tough. Hopefully grand coalition that manages to implement constitutional, institutional and electoral reforms. Also, a consensus on education would be neat. That's my wish list :P

Results are really hard to interpretate . My first impression is that we have a country that is divided in several fracture lines. To begin with, territorial breakdown is quite complex and fascinación (hhonestly, I didn't  expect the Podemos extraordinary performance in myCatalonia and the Basque Country ). Not to mention the generational gap  and many other factors that  I 'm  missing .

As for Ciudadanos, in my opinion they lost momentum because gradually they were perceived as an implicit ally for PP rather than an alternative , making their inconsistencies more evident . Their underperformance in Catalonia together with the ECP success is worthy of mention.

I think that a Grand Coalition should be dismissed .  PSOE can't support an administration headed by Rajoy , who is not a decent polítician according to Pedro Sánchez . There is a lot of media speculation right new, including the possibility of a government headed by Soraya backed by C's and with the abstention of PSOE  in the investiture . I can hardly see Rajoy quitting  just like that. I see the path to reforms blocked by the huge differences between the different forces and that PP majority in the Senate .

Parlamentary elections without a threshold (min. 5%) end like that...

Spain has a 3% threshold in theory, 10-15% in practice ¬¬


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on December 21, 2015, 12:11:21 pm
https://team.cartodb.com/u/piensaenpixel/viz/2016460c-a7c5-11e5-90ff-0e98b61680bf/embed_map


Very nice map, very detailed.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 21, 2015, 01:00:05 pm
https://team.cartodb.com/u/piensaenpixel/viz/2016460c-a7c5-11e5-90ff-0e98b61680bf/embed_map


Very nice map, very detailed.

Good find, thank you

 .
What's exactly the role of the Senate?

The most extended opinion is that our Senate is a rather useless legislative body .Anyway, search for the "Spanish Senate " entry in the Wikipedia for further details on its role and organization.

I apologize  for the bad ortography in my previous post. I don't know how to change the configuration of the fycking device that I'm using.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 21, 2015, 01:09:54 pm
Lewis found a good oddiry in Tarragona, a six seater.

Podemos 21, ERC 17, PSOE 16, DL 15, C's 14, PP 12.

And yes, that works out as all six getting one seat each. A very peculiar result.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: YL on December 22, 2015, 04:44:25 am
That exclave of Burgos province inside Alava seems to have liked Podemos a lot.

Result in Orexa, Gipuzkoa: EH Bildu 72 votes, PNV 1 vote, everyone else zero.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on December 22, 2015, 06:07:48 am
That exclave of Burgos province inside Alava seems to have liked Podemos a lot.

Result in Orexa, Gipuzkoa: EH Bildu 72 votes, PNV 1 vote, everyone else zero.

You must feel for that lone PNV voter...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on December 22, 2015, 08:27:09 am
Podemos overtakes IU-UP in Marinaleda : all is lost for IU.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 22, 2015, 01:57:16 pm
(
Img
)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on December 22, 2015, 04:15:49 pm
There seems to be an interesting North-South divide within the left between Podemos and PSOE respectively.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on December 22, 2015, 06:11:28 pm
It's more that PODEMOS are weakest in the Castillian heartland.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 22, 2015, 08:46:18 pm
I find the one of the more interesting regional oddity is C's pathetic result in its home region.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on December 22, 2015, 08:59:09 pm
I find the one of the more interesting regional oddity is C's pathetic result in its home region.

C's vote in Catalonia is limited by the fact that they are the mostly openly anti-Catalan language party.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 22, 2015, 09:15:47 pm
Podemos overtakes IU-UP in Marinaleda : all is lost for IU.

PCE: RIP HP


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on December 23, 2015, 03:24:24 am
It's more that PODEMOS are weakest in the Castillian heartland.
They do very well in the most autonomous of communities,which if I am not wrong are also those with an alternative official language.
Galicia,Catalunya,Pais Vasco,Communitat Valenciana,Baleares,Canarias...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Iannis on December 23, 2015, 08:45:16 am
It looks curious, but the vote to Podemos in provinces seems positively correlated with the GDP per capita as I found in some infographic I made

http://www.termometropolitico.it/infografiche


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Watermelon sin Jamón on December 23, 2015, 08:55:00 am
I think it is also positively correlated to air moisture, seeing the maps.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: warandwar on December 23, 2015, 10:52:52 am
I think it is also positively correlated to air moisture, seeing the maps.

Well known fact that moister air correlates to less strong hegemonic power structures.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: DL on December 23, 2015, 12:27:24 pm
I find the one of the more interesting regional oddity is C's pathetic result in its home region.

C's vote in Catalonia is limited by the fact that they are the mostly openly anti-Catalan language party.

I didn't think that C's were against the use of the Catalan language, just against Catalonia becoming an independent country - there's a big difference!


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Donnie on December 23, 2015, 01:17:57 pm
final prediction:

Water            28%  final: 28.7%
Aubergines    21%  final: 20.7%
Strawberries  20%  final: 22%
Oranges         14% final: 13.9%
                            -----------------------------------------------------------
                                                                       avg. error: +/- 0.8 % - i can live with that :)
turnout: 67%


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 23, 2015, 05:41:44 pm
PSOE barons are publicly dissatisfied with Sanchez, with Gonzalez and Rubalcaba urging Sanchez to allow a PP minority.  (http://www.politico.eu/article/spain-psoe-a-wounded-giant-socialists-sanchez-elections/) Will they wield a knife?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MaxQue on December 23, 2015, 06:24:21 pm
PSOE barons are publicly dissatisfied with Sanchez, with Gonzalez and Rubalcaba urging Sanchez to allow a PP minority.  (http://www.politico.eu/article/spain-psoe-a-wounded-giant-socialists-sanchez-elections/) Will they wield a knife?

If PSOE backs a PP government, PSOE is dead. The new PASOK.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on December 24, 2015, 03:44:39 am
God, senile third-way politicians are the worst.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 24, 2015, 04:33:14 am
Yes, Sanchez; definitely listed to Felipe "Corruption" González and incomptent failure Gonzales.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: coloniac on December 24, 2015, 08:28:45 am
 I imagine Podemos struggled in Andalucia because they are painted by PSOE as a threat to the traditional  welfare state as facilitators to its federalisation. We have a similar thing with our socialist party in Wallonia. People who benefit from government aid (and European aid) do not want multi-level governance.

Not sure how C's bombed in Catalunya, considering how they scored really well in the regionals there. PP were last too...


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: RogueBeaver on December 25, 2015, 11:25:49 am
Now Diaz is warning Sanchez that pact decisions are made by the PSOE federal council, not him unilaterally.  (http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/12/24/actualidad/1450974572_109966.html)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: MaxQue on December 25, 2015, 05:56:45 pm
I suspect it would have been better for PSOE if that bully had lost last regional elections.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: SunriseAroundTheWorld on December 26, 2015, 07:55:50 am
1. can't believe I missed these elections :(
2. amazing and hilarious results
3. i guess i hope PP stays in power but i wont cry if they dont. jose maria aznar was the last PM I liked.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on December 27, 2015, 06:02:15 pm
Lmao CuP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-catalonia-idUKKBN0UA0NQ20151227


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Tetro Kornbluth on December 27, 2015, 07:07:02 pm
http://www.elconfidencialdigital.com/politica/Felipe-Gonzalez-PP-PSOE-Podemos_0_2624737511.html (http://www.elconfidencialdigital.com/politica/Felipe-Gonzalez-PP-PSOE-Podemos_0_2624737511.html)

Felipe Gonzales leaps further into senility and calls for a pact with the PP followed with electoral reform to a two round system a la France to make sure that PODEMOS never obtains power (because Marine Le Pen and PODEMOS are the same threat apparently)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on December 28, 2015, 10:14:04 am
Lmao CuP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-catalonia-idUKKBN0UA0NQ20151227

Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 28, 2015, 03:25:32 pm
Pedro Sánchez, who is under big pressure from all sides including his own party, faced PSOE barons this morning. "Territorial integrity of Spain is not up for debate":

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/12/28/inenglish/1451310221_233637.html

Quote
Socialist Party (PSOE) leader Pedro Sánchez addressed his party on Monday morning, saying that he would “work his fingers to the bone” to try to deal with the demands for a “shift to the left” that Spanish society expressed at the December 20 elections. But, he said, he would not do so “at any price.” At no time will he discuss a referendum in Catalonia with Podemos, he stated.

The speech that Sánchez made on Monday morning to his party’s Federal Committee was by far the most difficult he has faced so far in his 17 months at the head of the left-wing group, given that some of the so-called “party barons” are beginning to question his leadership.

Meanwhile Pablo Iglesias met Mariano Rajoy at La Moncloa. Afterwards Iglesias told reporters that he is "massively dissapointed" with Pedro Sánchez. Mr Iglesias won't give up on the issue of the referendum in Catalonia -that is unacceptable for the socialists, especially for 'barons' like Susana Díaz- and demands that PSOE takes a position on a number of social measures that Podemos wants to implement.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/12/28/inenglish/1451308259_640441.html

On a side note, I find some demagoguery in the way that referendum proposal is depicted by naysayers. PP, PSOE and C's spokepersons say that Podemos aims to break Spain, even though Mr Iglesias stated he would campaign against independence in case the consultation was to take place. On the other hand it's likely that Pablo Iglesias aims a new election in which his party could grow at the expense of the Spanish socialists (and PP at the expense of C's), hence some people think that he says referendum is not negotiable because he kows it's a condition PSOE cannot accept. In any case Podemos could not give up without alienating regional allies, especially the Catalan and namely Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau.  

Mariano Rajoy met with Albert Rivera. The front man of Ciudadanos stated that his party will abstain in Rajoy's investiture and demands that socialists do the same, allowing PP leader to continue as PM in a second vote. Rivera would like  an entente PP-PSOE-C's in order to provide stability, enact some reforms and preserve the integrity of Spain. This option seems to be very popular in some media (yesterday I read Mario Vargas Llosa supporting it).


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on December 28, 2015, 04:28:25 pm
Lmao CuP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-catalonia-idUKKBN0UA0NQ20151227

Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

Catalan separatists never disappoint me ;D


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 28, 2015, 07:24:27 pm
God, senile third-way politicians are the worst.

These people aren't so much third way as generic small c conservatives.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: coloniac on December 29, 2015, 07:37:17 pm
Lmao CuP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-catalonia-idUKKBN0UA0NQ20151227

Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

Why would the nationalists take a beating? Especially in light of national (i.e Madrid-based) politics?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 03, 2016, 09:37:34 am
Lmao CuP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-catalonia-idUKKBN0UA0NQ20151227

Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

Why would the nationalists take a beating? Especially in light of national (i.e Madrid-based) politics?

Because they did in the general election and because the few polls there are seem to indicate so. I don't mean they'll crush but well...

Btw, elections will be held in March, the CUP just announced it will vote 5 for and 5 against, meaning, Mas doesn't have a majority or a plurality (for the second round) and since by next Sunday, the deadline will be met, new elections will be held automatically, in March. Fun times. CiU is about to be eclipsed by ERC as the main Catalanist party. And I venture to say that CDC will rid itself of Mas and might become (once again) a determining part of the Spanish process of government-formation.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on January 03, 2016, 12:28:38 pm
The most recent poll i can find (from NYE) has very little change from the election.

I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on January 04, 2016, 08:52:56 am
Why in hell didn't Convergencia get rid of Mas before the CUP assembly?
Just goes on to show how CdC didn't care one bit about independence,after all.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 04, 2016, 11:03:57 am
The most recent poll i can find (from NYE) has very little change from the election.

I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?

Well, the Catalan debate right now is polarised between independence or staying in Spain, so the middle-of-the-road position of CSQP of holding a referendum but voting against independence is not able to arouse much support. And also, as Podemos put as their main candidate Lluis Rabell, who had no charisma to speak of (even borrowed from Iglesias), they suffered. Also, Catalan voters are historically dual, meaning that they do not necessarily (or usually) vote the same in general and in Catalan elections: They will vote for the party they believe can best defend Catalonia within the Spanish institutions (PSOE, now Podemos) but at the regional level it's a different story. See, all the people who voted CiU at the regional level, but PSOE-PSC at the national one.

The problem with polls is that it's rather likely JxS will explode, and become CDC and ERC once again, this time with ERC becoming the main Catalanist party for the first time since the 30s. Also, the CUP will suffer. It remains to be seen whether or not C's will grow or it will go down, as it did in the general election.

CDC does care somewhat about independence (although they are many within who are ambivalent or just souveranist) but they care far more about their cap being the cap. Essentially Mas has almost absolute control of the party, just like Pujol did, so it's unlikely that even if they wanted (and Spanish parties aren't prone to these things), they could oust him. But you can see a change as you have people close to Mas, like Homs or Mas-Colell already expressing a much more ambivalent message about independence. For instance, during the electoral campaign, DiL was essentially saying independence one day and the next,"let's find a common ground, an accord with Madrid".


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 04, 2016, 12:05:16 pm
Artur Mas wil not step down:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/04/inenglish/1451909580_715089.html

Quote
Acting Catalan premier Artur Mas will not step down to prevent early elections in March, despite calls to do so from a small party that holds the key to power in the region.

“I am anxious to make a stand in Madrid, and also right here, against the forces that are not making it easy for us,” he said on Monday morning, before meeting with top leaders of his Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) party to discuss their next move.

Mas, who once said that he would step aside if he ever became “a problem” for the secessionist process, now defends his refusal to leave

On Sunday, Candidatura d’Unitat Popular (CUP) – a small anti-capitalist group that supports leaving the euro zone and holds the key to power in Catalonia – announced that its 10 deputies will not vote in favor of Mas’s reinstatement.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 04, 2016, 12:36:15 pm
I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?

The most recent poll i can find (from NYE) has very little change from the election.

I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?
Well, the Catalan debate right now is polarised between independence or staying in Spain, so the middle-of-the-road position of CSQP of holding a referendum but voting against independence is not able to arouse much support. And also, as Podemos put as their main candidate Lluis Rabell, who had no charisma to speak of (even borrowed from Iglesias), they suffered. Also, Catalan voters are historically dual, meaning that they do not necessarily (or usually) vote the same in general and in Catalan elections: They will vote for the party they believe can best defend Catalonia within the Spanish institutions (PSOE, now Podemos) but at the regional level it's a different story. See, all the people who voted CiU at the regional level, but PSOE-PSC at the national one.

There's another factor that makes a difference between Catalunya Sí que es Pot and En Comú Podem, that is the engagement Ada Colau and Barcelona en Comú in the general election. Actually, the main reference of the 'alternative left' in Catalonia is the Mayoress of Barcelona and not Pablo Iglesias. I haven't found polls for the Catalan elections conducted after December 20. In case the ECP alliance is going to be replicated in an early election to take place in March, with Colau taking a starring role, results could be a bit different. Another important factor would be a breakdown of the Junts pel Sí alliance.



Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 04, 2016, 12:59:31 pm
I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?

The most recent poll i can find (from NYE) has very little change from the election.

I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?
Well, the Catalan debate right now is polarised between independence or staying in Spain, so the middle-of-the-road position of CSQP of holding a referendum but voting against independence is not able to arouse much support. And also, as Podemos put as their main candidate Lluis Rabell, who had no charisma to speak of (even borrowed from Iglesias), they suffered. Also, Catalan voters are historically dual, meaning that they do not necessarily (or usually) vote the same in general and in Catalan elections: They will vote for the party they believe can best defend Catalonia within the Spanish institutions (PSOE, now Podemos) but at the regional level it's a different story. See, all the people who voted CiU at the regional level, but PSOE-PSC at the national one.

There's another factor that makes a difference between Catalunya Sí que es Pot and En Comú Podem, that is the engagement Ada Colau and Barcelona en Comú in the general election. Actually, the main reference of the 'alternative left' in Catalonia is the Mayoress of Barcelona and not Pablo Iglesias. I haven't found polls for the Catalan elections conducted after December 20. In case the ECP alliance is going to be replicated in an early election to take place in March, with Colau taking a starring role, results could be a bit different. Another important factor would be a breakdown of the Junts pel Sí alliance.

Indeed. I think JxS is going to collapse, personally. As for the polls, there's one from La Razón:

(
Img
)

JxS: 56 (-6)
C's: 29 (+4)
PSC: 15 (-1)
CSP: 12 (+1)
CUP: 11 (+1)
PP: 10 (-1)
Unió: 2 (+2)

Independence bloc: 67 seats (-5) (68 needed for absolute majority).
Unionists: 54 seats (+2)
Pro-referendum: 14 (+3)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 04, 2016, 01:27:30 pm
I think that poll doesn't reflect the state of public opinion at this moment. Anyway, I never trusted NC Report and La Razón ;)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 04, 2016, 02:30:54 pm
I think that poll doesn't reflect the state of public opinion at this moment. Anyway, I never trusted NC Report and La Razón ;)

Obviously :P But the only other projection is from El Mundo and it appears to be basically just a projection of the general election's results onto the Parlament, which is deficient.

But polling is going to be inaccurate because a) JxSì might collapse and b) will C's unexpected underperformance at the national elvel affect them at the Parlament?, c) will Colau and co. get more involved in the campaign for CSP? and most importantly d) will Iceta manage to win a majority for the PSC with his amazing dance moves? I'm sure he's been practising (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gE-LUAsWZu0) :P


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 05, 2016, 04:32:16 am
d) will Iceta manage to win a majority for the PSC with his amazing dance moves? I'm sure he's been practising (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gE-LUAsWZu0) :P

Ah, welcome to Polònia :D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWabXIPGmJI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjYHUGIJ4wM


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: coloniac on January 05, 2016, 04:40:55 am
Lmao CuP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-catalonia-idUKKBN0UA0NQ20151227

Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

Why would the nationalists take a beating? Especially in light of national (i.e Madrid-based) politics?

Because they did in the general election and because the few polls there are seem to indicate so. I don't mean they'll crush but well.

But like you said in a later post, Catalans don't seem to want to vote for national parties at a federal level, instead preferring Podemos/PSOE. It seems like the potential switch is between CiU and Erc, which is what confused me when you said the nationalists would struggle. I'm wondering how the Catalan electorate are reacting to the current deadlock in Madrid, that is focused on them? Is it hardening their position?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 05, 2016, 12:10:10 pm
Lmao CuP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-catalonia-idUKKBN0UA0NQ20151227

Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

Why would the nationalists take a beating? Especially in light of national (i.e Madrid-based) politics?

Because they did in the general election and because the few polls there are seem to indicate so. I don't mean they'll crush but well.

But like you said in a later post, Catalans don't seem to want to vote for national parties at a federal level, instead preferring Podemos/PSOE. It seems like the potential switch is between CiU and Erc, which is what confused me when you said the nationalists would struggle. I'm wondering how the Catalan electorate are reacting to the current deadlock in Madrid, that is focused on them? Is it hardening their position?

That is true, and to be honest, it's more of a feeling, I don't think there's yet evidence to support it. I think CDC has suffered a lot in the last legislature, and then there's the fact that the sum of CDC+ERC in seats has consistently gone down since 2010 (and now they don't have an absolute majority together, which they always had since 1980). I think many 'soft' nationalists, after this major blow to the 'procés' from within (first time, until now it was the evil Estat espanyol) will not help them out, plus you can only energise people from so long. Then there's the feeling that ERC is to pass CDC as the main Catalanist party, which won't help JxS to stay together. That could be seen in the general election.

Well, I'm not Catalan, but I'd say somewhat similar to the rest of Spain, waiting and condused by the situation, and thinking whether their territorial demands can be satisfied. I don't think it'll harden positions, instead, I think it can soften them, because (if a PSOE govt, with Podemos or C's, or both or idk happens), then the Government will be flexible. Also, because there's a consensus regarding a change in the financing of the regions and such. But it also depends on whether or not a Government can be formed. Ideally for a change (without a referendum), the best option is a PSOE+PP govt with support from C's and occassional agreements with Podemos for reforming the institutional and constitutional framework, but the situation atm it's far too complicated to tell what's going to happen.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 05, 2016, 12:47:26 pm
But like you said in a later post, Catalans don't seem to want to vote for national parties at a federal level, instead preferring Podemos/PSOE. It seems like the potential switch is between CiU and Erc, which is what confused me when you said the nationalists would struggle. I'm wondering how the Catalan electorate are reacting to the current deadlock in Madrid, that is focused on them? Is it hardening their position?

It's a bit more complicated than that. Catalonia has a long tradition of dual behaviour in elections, as it was pointed before, so there are few places in Spain where general and regional elections are so different contests. However, the deadlock is not only located in Madrid. The procés is reaching a dead end in the last few days both because of its unrealistic goals (despite separatists lost the 'plebiscite' by a narrow margin) and the absurd vaudeville starred by the stubborn Artur Mas and the CUP, embroiled in never-ending assemblies. The ERC can be a winner in this situation, because it places itself in the centrality of the separatist spectrum. Anyway, vote switches in Catalonia are multidirectional and there are grey areas inbetween separatists and unionists. For instance, the CUP itself collected voters from ERC (disaffected with the dealings with Artur Mas) in the last regional election. As well it collected votes from the 'radical' left, helped by the ambiguous positioning of Ada Colau and Barcelona en Comú (some members called to vote for the CSP, others for the CUP). Now that the two souls in the CUP (the separatist and the radical leftist) have collided on Artur Mas, who knows. The CUP didn't run in the general election: according to polls, 32% switched to En Comú Podem and 25% to ERC.     


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 05, 2016, 04:16:59 pm
Artur Mas: "On Monday I will sign the decree calling new elections". Another headline: "Catalan presidency is not a fish auction"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/05/inenglish/1451989708_020302.html

Quote
Acting Catalan premier Artur Mas is already counting on there being new elections in Catalonia, thus ruling out an agreement with anti-capitalist group Candidatura d’Unitat Popular (CUP), the party that holds the key to power in the region.

“On Monday I will sign the decree calling new elections,” Mas announced on Tuesday morning in Barcelona. The acting premier added that he would, nonetheless, run the clock down on the legal time frame that the CUP has to change its mind and decide to support his investiture as head of parliament.

The political tug-of-war in Catalonia this week prompted one high-profile resignation, but it is not the one that many people were expecting

Mas has been unable to secure enough support for his reinstatement in the more than three months since Catalonia held elections, but this week he has insisted that he will not step aside in favor of a consensus candidate.

Instead, the one leaving is the leader of CUP – the fringe party that is withholding the support Mas so desperately needs to get sworn in and form a government (...)

And in an added twist to the tale, the man who vowed that CUP would never back Mas is walking away because his party has decided to do precisely what he promised (...)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Velasco on January 07, 2016, 12:34:18 pm
Podemos wins the overseas vote. Turnout was only 4.7%, mainly because of the difficulties with the voto rogado ("requested vote") system. In previous elections, before that system was implemented, turnout used to be 30% or so. The uneven turnout figures by region are worth mentioning. For instance, in the Canaries 4.2% of the overseas roll requested to vote but votes cast were only 1%. Apparently mail service malfunction in countries like Cuba and Venezuela is connected with extremely low turnouts in Galicia and the Canary Islands. Anyway, results (interactive map by constituency through the link):

Podemos 23,908 votes (27.04%)

PP 20,492 (23.17%)

PSOE 14,885 (16.84%)

C's 14,465 (16.36%)

IU 3,406 (3.85%)

http://ctxt.es/es/20160106/Politica/3617/voto-rogado-elecciones-participacion-Espa%C3%B1a-Elecciones-20D-

Results by region:

http://www.espanaexterior.com/upload/archivo/680-votoceragenerales20d2015.pdf





Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 09, 2016, 08:10:40 am
http://noticias.lainformacion.com/politica/partidos/un-documento-firmado-por-5-ministros-pide-a-rajoy-irse-para-que-el-pp-gobierne_NLvtzK6RmxOpowQjDmTQ57/ (http://"http://noticias.lainformacion.com/politica/partidos/un-documento-firmado-por-5-ministros-pide-a-rajoy-irse-para-que-el-pp-gobierne_NLvtzK6RmxOpowQjDmTQ57/")

Quote
A document signed by 5 ministers demands Rajoy to resign so that the PP may govern

Un sector muy importante y bien posicionado del PP ha redactado un documento en el que se expone a Rajoy la necesidad de que se aparte para que tengan alguna posibilidad de gobernar. De momento, 5 ministros han firmado el escrito.

  • A very important and well-positioned sector of the PP has written a document in which they explain to Rajoy the need for him to resign so that they may have a possibility to govern. So far, 5 ministers have signed the document.
  • Soraya Sáenz Santamría would be behind the memo, according to PP sources that talked to lainformacion.com, although they admit that the Deputy Prime Minister has not signed it.

Back-stabbing within Rajoy's own party is becoming commonplace. The electoral results have stirred the waters of the People's Party. If before the election, a sector of the populares thought that the results of Rivera (C's) would force Rajoy to resign, today, without that possibility, they have decided to take direct action.

"A very important and well-positioned sector of the PP has written a document in which they explain to Rajoy the need for him to resign so that they may have a possibility to govern. So far, 5 ministers have signed the document, a proof of the malcontent within the party" a very well-psotioned source within the PP explained to lainformacion.com.

Soraya would be behind the document

The black hand that would be behind this betrayal would be the one and only Soraya Sáenz Santamaría, said the same source, although they recognised that the Deputy Prime Minister is not amongst the signatories of the document.

"She simply does not need to. She is the natural successor to Rajoy and she has a very large number of supporters within Génova [PP's HQ, the apparatus]. With just insinuating something and letting other people get involved is more than enough"

Rajoy's leadership decline within the party is more patent every day. "Before [the elections], no one would have dared to face Rajoy. The document which I'm referring to is a proof that no one, except his most faithful, would mind to challenge him. It is just a matter of time that the PP changes its leadership and that it works to recover the lost ground after the last election".


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: coloniac on January 09, 2016, 10:47:16 am
http://noticias.lainformacion.com/politica/partidos/un-documento-firmado-por-5-ministros-pide-a-rajoy-irse-para-que-el-pp-gobierne_NLvtzK6RmxOpowQjDmTQ57/ (http://"http://noticias.lainformacion.com/politica/partidos/un-documento-firmado-por-5-ministros-pide-a-rajoy-irse-para-que-el-pp-gobierne_NLvtzK6RmxOpowQjDmTQ57/")

Quote
A document signed by 5 ministers demands Rajoy to resign so that the PP may govern

Un sector muy importante y bien posicionado del PP ha redactado un documento en el que se expone a Rajoy la necesidad de que se aparte para que tengan alguna posibilidad de gobernar. De momento, 5 ministros han firmado el escrito.

  • A very important and well-positioned sector of the PP has written a document in which they explain to Rajoy the need for him to resign so that they may have a possibility to govern. So far, 5 ministers have signed the document.
  • Soraya Sáenz Santamría would be behind the memo, according to PP sources that talked to lainformacion.com, although they admit that the Deputy Prime Minister has not signed it.

Back-stabbing within Rajoy's own party is becoming commonplace. The electoral results have stirred the waters of the People's Party. If before the election, a sector of the populares thought that the results of Rivera (C's) would force Rajoy to resign, today, without that possibility, they have decided to take direct action.

"A very important and well-positioned sector of the PP has written a document in which they explain to Rajoy the need for him to resign so that they may have a possibility to govern. So far, 5 ministers have signed the document, a proof of the malcontent within the party" a very well-psotioned source within the PP explained to lainformacion.com.

Soraya would be behind the document

The black hand that would be behind this betrayal would be the one and only Soraya Sáenz Santamaría, said the same source, although they recognised that the Deputy Prime Minister is not amongst the signatories of the document.

"She simply does not need to. She is the natural successor to Rajoy and she has a very large number of supporters within Génova [PP's HQ, the apparatus]. With just insinuating something and letting other people get involved is more than enough"

Rajoy's leadership decline within the party is more patent every day. "Before [the elections], no one would have dared to face Rajoy. The document which I'm referring to is a proof that no one, except his most faithful, would mind to challenge him. It is just a matter of time that the PP changes its leadership and that it works to recover the lost ground after the last election".

"Soy aquí porque somos un equipo" and then she ousts Rajoy of the presidency. Hmm?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 09, 2016, 10:52:38 am
http://noticias.lainformacion.com/politica/partidos/un-documento-firmado-por-5-ministros-pide-a-rajoy-irse-para-que-el-pp-gobierne_NLvtzK6RmxOpowQjDmTQ57/ (http://"http://noticias.lainformacion.com/politica/partidos/un-documento-firmado-por-5-ministros-pide-a-rajoy-irse-para-que-el-pp-gobierne_NLvtzK6RmxOpowQjDmTQ57/")

Quote
A document signed by 5 ministers demands Rajoy to resign so that the PP may govern

Un sector muy importante y bien posicionado del PP ha redactado un documento en el que se expone a Rajoy la necesidad de que se aparte para que tengan alguna posibilidad de gobernar. De momento, 5 ministros han firmado el escrito.

  • A very important and well-positioned sector of the PP has written a document in which they explain to Rajoy the need for him to resign so that they may have a possibility to govern. So far, 5 ministers have signed the document.
  • Soraya Sáenz Santamría would be behind the memo, according to PP sources that talked to lainformacion.com, although they admit that the Deputy Prime Minister has not signed it.

Back-stabbing within Rajoy's own party is becoming commonplace. The electoral results have stirred the waters of the People's Party. If before the election, a sector of the populares thought that the results of Rivera (C's) would force Rajoy to resign, today, without that possibility, they have decided to take direct action.

"A very important and well-positioned sector of the PP has written a document in which they explain to Rajoy the need for him to resign so that they may have a possibility to govern. So far, 5 ministers have signed the document, a proof of the malcontent within the party" a very well-psotioned source within the PP explained to lainformacion.com.

Soraya would be behind the document

The black hand that would be behind this betrayal would be the one and only Soraya Sáenz Santamaría, said the same source, although they recognised that the Deputy Prime Minister is not amongst the signatories of the document.

"She simply does not need to. She is the natural successor to Rajoy and she has a very large number of supporters within Génova [PP's HQ, the apparatus]. With just insinuating something and letting other people get involved is more than enough"

Rajoy's leadership decline within the party is more patent every day. "Before [the elections], no one would have dared to face Rajoy. The document which I'm referring to is a proof that no one, except his most faithful, would mind to challenge him. It is just a matter of time that the PP changes its leadership and that it works to recover the lost ground after the last election".

"Soy aquí porque somos un equipo" and then she ousts Rajoy of the presidency. Hmm?

Estoy :p But yes, basically, she's the second in command and her profile is much more amenable to a great coalition than Mariano "LED" Rajoy.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 09, 2016, 10:54:37 am
Also, an in extremis agreement between JxS and the CUP might have been reached and there'd be an investitute vote tomorrow. While not a 100% confirmed, Mas would resign (and become conseller en cap), and Girona's mayor, Carles Puigdemont (CDC) would become President and in exchange, 8 CUP MP would resign and 2 join JxS because I don't know. In any case, this decision has no support (AFAIK) from any CUP Assembly and there are 4-5 CUP MPs very opposed to CDC altogether, so we'll see if this happens and then if they follow their party's line.

But on the other hand, a JxS deputy just tweeted:

Quote
"De moment no tenim cap confirmació ni pel ple d investidura de demà ni per qui serà !"

"So far we have no confirmation neither about the investiture vote tomorrow nor about whom it will be!"


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on January 09, 2016, 11:39:30 am
If CUP agree to this,they'd reach a whole new level of ridicolousness.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 09, 2016, 11:46:57 am
If CUP agree to this,they'd reach a whole new level of ridicolousness.

Mas is about to talk to the press, ERC is meeting at 18.00, CDC at 19.00. The CUP I don't know. In any case, 6 CUPaires need to vote yes (and the other 4 don't matter) for an absolute majority, because there can only be one investiture vote and it needs to have an absolute majority. There's no time for a second round, since if there's no President by Monday, elections will be held on March.

And there could be a rebellion in CUP from the anti-Mas/CDC half.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 09, 2016, 12:06:20 pm
Mas is speaking live atm. (http://www.elmundo.es/el-mundo-tv/2016/01/09/569133fc46163f4f048b45cf.html)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 09, 2016, 12:50:32 pm
(
Img
)

The agreement. Holy . Baixada de pantalons.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: aross on January 09, 2016, 01:36:04 pm

The agreement. Holy . Baixada de pantalons.

An English summary would be greatly appreciated. (Though from what I can tell, the "2 defectors" part certainly seems to be in it - any reason for this?)


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 09, 2016, 01:47:57 pm
Quote
Parliamentary Accord:

In order to guarantee parliamentary stability and to strengthen the government during this legislature, the CUP-CC binds itself to:

1. Not to vote in the same sense as the parliamentary groups opposed to the procés and/or the 'dret a decidir' whenever parliamentary stability is at risk.
2. Guarantee that two deputies of the CUP-CC will join the "parliamentary group dynamic" of JxS in a stable manner. They will take part in all deliberations and will follow the decisions taken in order to ensure that point 1 is respected.
3. To give support in the first round to the candidate to the presidency of the Generalitat that the current President may proposes from amongst the members of Junts pel Sì parliamentary group.

In the same manner,

4. The CUP-CC assumes that the defence of the political aspects of the 'procés' as understood by the CUP have jeopardised the majoritarian vote of the people and the electorate in favour of a process towards the independence in a negotiation which has eroded the support of both as well as the social and popular basis of independentism. It must recognise the errors in the belligerency expressed towards JxS, especially with regards to all relative to the unequivocal will to advance in the process of independence and in the constituent process which it entails, only scenario for the construction of the frames and structures of sovereignty which will permit us, as a society, to reach other levels of social justice and democratic participation. Due to all of these, the CUP-CC agrees to rebuild, in all aspects, the discursive and mobilising power of the current political stage which starts with this agreement, including the active defence of all the agents that have made it possible.

5. The CUP-CC agrees to renew, as far as it is necessary, its own parliamentary group with the objective of signalling a change o course and to implicitly assume on their part the self-criticism that is due in the management of the process. The new deputies will take their place immediately after the investiture vote.

Basically, the CUP agrees to support Puigdemont, to assume that all the problems of the last 3 months are their fault, for 2 of their MPs to join JxS and to purge their parliamentary group of anti-Mas deputies (so at least 4 or 5 out of 10) in exchange for Mas' resignation. Oh! And to never ever not support the current Government.

All meanwhile Mas might make a return after a few months, since he's going to focus on 'rebuilding' Convergencia.


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: coloniac on January 09, 2016, 02:01:00 pm
Just a friendly reminder that this is the political class 50% of Catalonia want instead of the one in Madrid.

Also, doesn't the CUP have to pass this agreement through their party? I mean why even bother going to consult your party and blocking the whole process when you agree to do this deal that cripples your party? To get rid of one individual? Oh wait, let me guess, because they will be annihilated in any near future election anyway, so they might as well gamble on power and potential unilateral independence?

This is the glorious Catalan independence we've all been waiting for then.

How will the CUP rebels react?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: Nanwe on January 09, 2016, 02:04:02 pm
Just a friendly reminder that this is the political class 50% of Catalonia want instead of the one in Madrid.

Also, doesn't the CUP have to pass this agreement through their party? I mean why even bother going to consult your party and blocking the whole process when you agree to do this deal that cripples your party? To get rid of one individual? Oh wait, let me guess, because they will be annihilated in any near future election anyway, so they might as well gamble on power and potential unilateral independence?

This is the glorious Catalan independence we've all been waiting for then.


How will the CUP rebels react?

Technically, 47% :P

But we don't know if they will react or not. But for a party where these decisions ought to be taken by an assembly, it all seems very un-assembly-like. I'm just utterly amazed about the agreement, it's the political version of, idk, ser puta y poner la cama?


In any case, what's glorious are the comments Mas made during the press conference such as "urnas no le dieron ha tenido que "corregirse" en negociación" (what the ballot box did not give has been corrected in the negotiation", or that the CUP "will be in the Parlament to do opposition because the Govern can not lose votes [in passing laws]"


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics
Post by: aross on January 09, 2016, 02:12:50 pm
Quote
Parliamentary Accord:

In order to guarantee parliamentary stability and to strengthen the government during this legislature, the CUP-CC binds itself to:

1. Not to vote in the same sense as the parliamentary groups opposed to the procés and/or the 'dret a decidir' whenever parliamentary stability is at risk.
2. Guarantee that two deputies of the CUP-CC will join the "parliamentary group dynamic" of JxS in a stable manner. They will take part in all deliberations and will follow the decisions taken in order to ensure that point 1 is respected.
3. To give support in the first round to the candidate to the presidency of the Generalitat that the current President may proposes from amongst the members of Junts pel Sì parliamentary group.

In the same manner,

4. The CUP-CC assumes that the defence of the political aspects of the 'procés' as understood by the CUP have jeopardised the majoritarian vote of the people and the electorate in favour of a process towards the independence in a negotiation which has eroded the support of both as well as the social and popular basis of independentism. It must recognise the errors in the belligerency expressed towards JxS, especially with regards to all relative to the unequivocal will to advance in the process of independence and in the constituent process which it entails, only scenario for the construction of the frames and structures of sovereignty which will permit us, as a society, to reach other levels of social justice and democratic participation. Due to all of these, the CUP-CC agrees to rebuild, in all aspects, the discursive and mobilising power of the current political stage which starts with this agreement, including the active defence of all the agents that have made it possible.

5. The CUP-CC agrees to renew, as far as it is necessary, its own parliamentary group with the objective of signalling a change o course and to implicitly assume on their part the self-criticism that is due in the management of the process. The new deputies will take their place immediately after the investiture vote.

Basically, the CUP agrees to support Puigdemont, to assume that all the problems of the last 3 months are their fault, for 2 of their MPs to join JxS and to purge their parliamentary group of anti-Mas deputies (so at least 4 or 5 out of 10) in exchange for Mas' resignation. Oh! And to never ever not support the current Government.

All meanwhile Mas might make a return after a few months, since he's going to focus on 'rebuilding' Convergencia.

Thanks!
That's... mental, surely? Points 4 and 5 read like something from a Maoist self-criticism session.
Any indication as to whether the anti-Mas MPs are even willing to resign? Or do CUP use the tried and tested "undated letters of resignation" technique?

Oh yeah, and if the CUP are meant to become JxSí's satellite party anyway, why even bother with the two defectors?


Title: Re: Spanish elections and politics<