Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Mr. Morden on February 18, 2015, 06:05:40 am



Title: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 18, 2015, 06:05:40 am
Quinnipiac polls CO, IA, and VA:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2149

Colorado

Clinton 43%
Paul 41%

Clinton 43%
Christie 34%

Clinton 44%
Bush 36%

Clinton 42%
Walker 40%

Clinton 44%
Huckabee 39%

Iowa

Clinton 45%
Huckabee 38%

Clinton 45%
Paul 37%

Clinton 44%
Christie 34%

Clinton 45%
Bush 35%

Clinton 45%
Walker 35%

Virginia

Bush 42%
Clinton 42%

Clinton 44%
Paul 42%

Clinton 44%
Huckabee 41%

Clinton 44%
Christie 39%

Clinton 45%
Walker 40%


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 18, 2015, 06:17:46 am
I expected Clinton to be weaker in Iowa and stronger in Virginia.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 18, 2015, 07:42:22 am
I won't bother to list everyone's favorability in all three states, but, to give an indication of the relative name recognition of the various candidates, here's the %age of respondents in CO/IA/VA who answered "haven't heard enough about [him/her]" when asked their opinion of the person in question:

Clinton 4 / 9 / 5
Christie 25 / 32 / 23
Bush 27 / 37 / 26
Paul 33 / 39 / 35
Huckabee 31 / 31 / 26
Walker 54 / 55 / 57


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Tender Branson on February 18, 2015, 08:05:15 am
Hillary has rather weak favorable ratings in all 3 states and she only leads Walker by 2 points in CO and 5 points in VA, despite Walker only having 40% name recognition in these states.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Cory Booker on February 18, 2015, 08:18:31 am
()

Clinton 263
Jeb 206



Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Devils30 on February 18, 2015, 08:30:21 am
Judging Quinniipac record in Colorado this is a great poll for her. Virginia seems like an outlier, should do better there but the state also has a lot of white southerners. Seems like it's the white voters in the non-south she runs ahead of Obama with much more than VA NC etc.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Landslide Andy on February 18, 2015, 02:04:02 pm
This poll seems to defy the CW in both ways: most people probably would've expected Hillary to be doing worse in IA/CO but better in VA.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Landslide Andy on February 18, 2015, 02:10:38 pm
Hillary has rather weak favorable ratings in all 3 states and she only leads Walker by 2 points in CO and 5 points in VA, despite Walker only having 40% name recognition in these states.

The problem with this argument is that it's not as if a bunch of Republicans are saying they support Hillary or are undecided. Despite half of Republicans not knowing who Walker is, he still wins them 88-2 in CO. Hillary leads among Dems 91-2, so essentially the same. The place where there's a lot of undecideds are independents.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Deranged California Suburbanite on February 18, 2015, 02:11:12 pm
I expected Clinton to be weaker in Iowa and stronger in Virginia.

I'm also surprised at how well she's doing in Colorado.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Free Bird on February 18, 2015, 02:35:32 pm
But... MUH SOLID D VIRGINIA


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: retromike22 on February 18, 2015, 03:08:26 pm
I expected Clinton to be weaker in Iowa and stronger in Virginia.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: King on February 18, 2015, 03:32:43 pm
I don't think the GOP nominee can win without Colorado.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on February 18, 2015, 03:39:27 pm
I don't think the GOP nominee can win without Colorado.

I know Hillary's weak there, but unless it's Paul (or according to this Walker), I don't expect it to be particularly viable in a Presidential year. We got very lucky in the midterms just to eek it out. I'm much more confident in Iowa and Virginia at the end of the day (and only one of those may be necessary).

Christie could possibly win it to but it'd require some serious rehabilitation of his image. Especially there with shaking off any remnants of a crusader against drug crimes or about treating the state "not well".


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Landslide Andy on February 18, 2015, 03:59:37 pm
(Image Link)

But #muhdynasties will hurt Hillary just as much as it hurts Jeb!


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: henster on February 18, 2015, 04:18:47 pm
(Image Link)

But #muhdynasties will hurt Hillary just as much as it hurts Jeb!

If Walker is the nominee the dynasty thing will be used against her instead of being canceled out by Jeb.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: King on February 18, 2015, 04:21:44 pm
I don't think the GOP nominee can win without Colorado.

It's not that he CAN'T win without it but it will be a good bellwether.

No, I think it's pretty much can't.

()

This is D272-R266.

In order to win, they'd have to pick up Colorado or either a Kerry state like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. Walker might be able to do it, but I think Colorado would be the better shot.

But running the table in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa is difficult enough as is.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Landslide Andy on February 18, 2015, 04:24:46 pm
(Image Link)

But #muhdynasties will hurt Hillary just as much as it hurts Jeb!

If Walker is the nominee the dynasty thing will be used against her instead of being canceled out by Jeb.

It wouldn't be "cancelled out", because as the poll shows, it isn't a problem to begin with for Hillary. If Jeb is the nominee it will hurt him, if Jeb is not the nominee it will be irrelevant.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Devils30 on February 18, 2015, 06:31:08 pm
Not sold on Hillary having Virginia troubles based off one poll. And the GOP can't afford to let her do better than Obama with ANY demographic. The math doesn't add up when you begin 3.85 points down and have 4 years of demographic change to counter.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: pbrower2a on February 18, 2015, 08:58:01 pm
Best case based on current polling for Bush and Walker (Christie, Paul, and Huckabee -- you don't want to see it if you are one of their supporters):

()

Hillary Clinton red plus green -- against Jeb Bush blue plus yellow

Hillary Clinton red plus yellow -- against  Scott Walker blue plus green


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Boston Bread on February 18, 2015, 09:57:08 pm
So much for all those maps showing Walker winning Iowa even in a Clinton victory scenario...


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: dmmidmi on February 19, 2015, 08:45:32 am
So much for all those maps showing Walker winning Iowa even in a Clinton victory scenario...

Those maps are based on some delusion that because Walker is from a neighboring state, that this gives him some sort of advantage in Iowa.

It doesn't. This argument is stupid, grounded nowhere in reality, and runs completely contrary to every past election result. Barack Obama was from a neighboring state, and performed one point better in Iowa than the national average--just like John Kerry before him, and Bill Clinton in 1996.

This "He's from Wisconsin, so he'll win Iowa!" line needs to die. Now.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Mr. Morden on February 19, 2015, 09:02:18 am
So much for all those maps showing Walker winning Iowa even in a Clinton victory scenario...

Those maps are based on some delusion that because Walker is from a neighboring state, that this gives him some sort of advantage in Iowa.

It doesn't. This argument is stupid, grounded nowhere in reality, and runs completely contrary to every past election result. Barack Obama was from a neighboring state, and performed one point better in Iowa than the national average--just like John Kerry before him, and Bill Clinton in 1996.

This "He's from Wisconsin, so he'll win Iowa!" line needs to die. Now.

But what about mega coattails?

This is a new phenomenon that is being floated around by experts.

We all know what coatails are. For example, Obama coattails in Connecticut might propel Murphy to victory. Or Romney coattails in North Dakota might propel Berg to victory.

But how about mega coattails? The theory is that there is a such a huge margin in a state that it actually leaks over into neighboring states

For example, Romney is going to win Utah by so much that it harms Obama in Nevada and Colorado.

They say mega coattails from Illinois is what gave Obama Indiana in 2008.

Should Obama campaign in Salt Lake City? Obviously he won't win the state but if he can get the margin down in Utah, there will just be coattails in Utah and not mega coattails


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Senator Cris on February 19, 2015, 09:13:18 am
Colorado is crucial for Republicans.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: pbrower2a on February 19, 2015, 12:38:06 pm
This map shows a projection based upon polls in eleven states (shown in another thread), seven of them capable of deciding the flavor of the 2016 election.

This thread is likely to go dormant and irrelevant soon enough. There is a thread on polling, and it effectively shows nothing from before Election 2014. 

Based on current polls (and the states are representative enough), behavior of other states between 2000 and 2012 (I have nothing on the 'inner arc' of states from Louisiana to West Virginia that all went to Bill Clinton  in the 1990s, drifted R in 2000 and 2004, and utterly rejected Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012)... the Republicans get everything that they won in 2012.

OK, so should California go R in 2016 (which is about as likely as a blizzard in San Diego in July) the map would change -- big.   


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: dmmidmi on February 19, 2015, 01:30:49 pm
So much for all those maps showing Walker winning Iowa even in a Clinton victory scenario...

Those maps are based on some delusion that because Walker is from a neighboring state, that this gives him some sort of advantage in Iowa.

It doesn't. This argument is stupid, grounded nowhere in reality, and runs completely contrary to every past election result. Barack Obama was from a neighboring state, and performed one point better in Iowa than the national average--just like John Kerry before him, and Bill Clinton in 1996.

This "He's from Wisconsin, so he'll win Iowa!" line needs to die. Now.

I think Iowa is still in play. One of the reasons why it is in play and may be trending Republican is because of its demographics and not the fact that Walker is from WI. The problem the GOP faces in Iowa right now can be summarized quite easily: White women. Hillary is winning them by a bigger margin right now than Obama did (no, OF COURSE not because of sexism or racism! lol). However, even though all her supporters are already united behind her and have made up their mind, she is still not polling above 45%. I don't know why everyone thinks that those polls are good for her (especially in Colorado).

This would require Iowans to completely shift voting habits and patterns, and fast. Iowa is over 90% white. It was also over 90% white when it voted at--or one point to the left--of the national average in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008. And when Iowa voted significantly to the left of the country in 1984 and 1988.

The result of Iowa shouldn't be a surprise to anybody on election night. Despite all of the campaign money that gets pissed away in Iowa, that state's voting pattern--for the last six general election cycles--has been remarkably stable.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Landslide Andy on February 19, 2015, 04:06:05 pm
So much for all those maps showing Walker winning Iowa even in a Clinton victory scenario...

Those maps are based on some delusion that because Walker is from a neighboring state, that this gives him some sort of advantage in Iowa.

It doesn't. This argument is stupid, grounded nowhere in reality, and runs completely contrary to every past election result. Barack Obama was from a neighboring state, and performed one point better in Iowa than the national average--just like John Kerry before him, and Bill Clinton in 1996.

This "He's from Wisconsin, so he'll win Iowa!" line needs to die. Now.

Aside from Walker being from Wisconsin, there's also the fact that a) the state is overwhelmingly white. If the double down on whites strategy has any impact, Iowa would be ground zero for that. b) the fact that they elected Joni Ernst, and by quite a substantial margin. Granted, it was a midterm wave so turnout probably had a big impact there, but the fact that she won so comfortably gives me pause.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: pbrower2a on February 19, 2015, 08:05:48 pm
Iowa -- about D+1 in Presidential elections since the 1990s. It was the tipping-point state in 2008.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Panda Express on February 19, 2015, 08:07:08 pm
Jeb Bush is horrid in Colorado.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Devils30 on February 19, 2015, 08:24:28 pm
Jeb is also a terrible fit for Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin. All of which soured on W and have somewhat revived economically as of late. Seems like all of Hillary's white improvement would be in the northeast and Midwest.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Devils30 on February 19, 2015, 10:26:21 pm
If Jeb is losing WI, IA like that he is probably losing OH as well. There is no path without Ohio for the GOP. And I'm skeptical about Nevada going red, the demographics are just very tough for the GOP and not getting better. Sandoval wins because hes personally popular, not because his party. Virginia is becoming Pennsylvania like for the GOP, don't count on Clinton being held to 50% in the DC suburbs with higher turnout. FL of course is a must win for Jeb or anyone in the GOP and Jeb only ties with his home state edge.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: dmmidmi on February 20, 2015, 07:43:56 am
So much for all those maps showing Walker winning Iowa even in a Clinton victory scenario...

Those maps are based on some delusion that because Walker is from a neighboring state, that this gives him some sort of advantage in Iowa.

It doesn't. This argument is stupid, grounded nowhere in reality, and runs completely contrary to every past election result. Barack Obama was from a neighboring state, and performed one point better in Iowa than the national average--just like John Kerry before him, and Bill Clinton in 1996.

This "He's from Wisconsin, so he'll win Iowa!" line needs to die. Now.

Aside from Walker being from Wisconsin, there's also the fact that a) the state is overwhelmingly white. If the double down on whites strategy has any impact, Iowa would be ground zero for that. b) the fact that they elected Joni Ernst, and by quite a substantial margin. Granted, it was a midterm wave so turnout probably had a big impact there, but the fact that she won so comfortably gives me pause.

Republicans have been pandering to whites for decades, and Iowa is still voting at the national average, or one point to the left, in Presidential elections.

While Joni Ernst ran a pitch-perfect campaign, and Republicans did extremely well in the 2014 midterms, let us not forget that Bruce Braley proved to the world that he is a total jackass.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Cory Booker on February 20, 2015, 11:50:03 am
We all get it. VA is solid D, IA always votes D and Hillary will win because of #muhDemographics and #muhTurnout. Done deal. Inevitable.

In Va and WI, especially, blacks will be motivated to vote against Walker, due to the backlash of the Voter ID Law, that he tried to get through in WI, and luckily SCOTUS and the Kennedy CRT struck it down. 



Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Landslide Andy on February 20, 2015, 02:58:04 pm
So much for all those maps showing Walker winning Iowa even in a Clinton victory scenario...

Those maps are based on some delusion that because Walker is from a neighboring state, that this gives him some sort of advantage in Iowa.

It doesn't. This argument is stupid, grounded nowhere in reality, and runs completely contrary to every past election result. Barack Obama was from a neighboring state, and performed one point better in Iowa than the national average--just like John Kerry before him, and Bill Clinton in 1996.

This "He's from Wisconsin, so he'll win Iowa!" line needs to die. Now.

Aside from Walker being from Wisconsin, there's also the fact that a) the state is overwhelmingly white. If the double down on whites strategy has any impact, Iowa would be ground zero for that. b) the fact that they elected Joni Ernst, and by quite a substantial margin. Granted, it was a midterm wave so turnout probably had a big impact there, but the fact that she won so comfortably gives me pause.

Republicans have been pandering to whites for decades, and Iowa is still voting at the national average, or one point to the left, in Presidential elections.

While Joni Ernst ran a pitch-perfect campaign, and Republicans did extremely well in the 2014 midterms, let us not forget that Bruce Braley proved to the world that he is a total jackass.

I wouldn't really say Ernst ran a perfect campaign. She made a bunch of wacky comments and gaffes, they just never stuck. But yeah, Braley being horrendous likely had a big impact as well.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: dmmidmi on February 20, 2015, 03:34:16 pm
We all get it. VA is solid D, IA always votes D and Hillary will win because of #muhDemographics and #muhTurnout. Done deal. Inevitable.

I don't have anything to back up the idea that Iowa will be competitive--or anything but even/D+1--so I will resort to sarcasm.

#analysis #hotpoliticaltake #smackoff


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: Cory Booker on February 20, 2015, 04:21:04 pm
()

Clinton 263
Jeb 206


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: pbrower2a on February 20, 2015, 11:47:54 pm

Not that anyone could confuse Colorado and Nevada -- the states typically vote alike. If Jeb Bush loses Colorado he also loses Nevada. If he loses Colorado badly enough... Arizona could be (irony intended) "icing" on a Hillary Clinton landslide or near-landslide.


Title: Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
Post by: pbrower2a on February 21, 2015, 09:16:46 am
We all get it. VA is solid D, IA always votes D and Hillary will win because of #muhDemographics and #muhTurnout. Done deal. Inevitable.

Virginia was reliably R except in Democratic blowouts  (well, there was only one -- in 1964) between the Truman win of 1948 and the two wins by Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. The status of Virginia as a D-leaning state is shaky -- something like the status of West Virginia as an R-leaning state in 2000.  Many were surprised with Virginia showing leads for Barack Obama in 2008 just as many were astonished to see West Virginia (the state went for Carter in 1980 and Dukakis in 1988) go for Dubya in 2000.

Virginia is NOT solid D in Presidential elections as is Maryland. But if Republicans are to win without Virginia they will have to cut into the so-called Blue (Atlas red) Firewall of states that have not voted for any Republican nominee for President since at least 1988.

If Iowa isn't going for the Republican nominee, then neither is Wisconsin, Minnesota, nor Michigan. Those four states comprise 42 electoral votes -- which is bigger than Texas in electoral votes. Nothing indicates that Pennsylvania or New Hampshire is in play. But Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio are in play for Democrats.

Jeb Bush might have been a better President than his brother -- but that isn't saying much.