Talk Elections

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bihar_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2015

Critical state of Bihar will have assembly elections in late 2015.  This is critical for BJP because the NDA does not have a majority or even plurality in the Upper House and the only way to change that balance of power is to sweep state assembly elections and then over the next 2 years build up their numbers.  Bihar in 2015 and UP in 2017 are critical to this.

In 2010 BJP-JD(U) won a massive landslide over RJD-LJP and INC which contested separately.  Since then BJP and JD(U) broke up and in LS 2014 it was BJP-LJP-RLSP (RLSP is a JD(U) splinter) winning a landslide victory over RJD-INC-NCP and JD(U)-CPI which contested separately.    This in turn created a massive anti-NDA alliance in Bihar where JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP has come together in its aftermath.  

JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar stepped down last year over the defeat of JD(U)-CPI in LS elections and installed Mahadalit (lowest of the untouchable Dalit castes) Jitan Ram Manjhi as his proxy to draw Dalit votes to JD(U) in 2015 assembly elections.   Manjhi  proceeded to break away from Kumar afterwards to build himself his own political base.   He was getting support from the BJP in his rebellion and he was just removed as CM with Kumar about to take over again.  Manjhi is a famous ship-jumper.  He was in INC, and then went over to JD and then went to RJD and then went over to JD(U).  Now he will most likely join LJP or even form his own party to ally with BJP.

Latest ABP News-Nielsen Snap Poll in the aftermath of this political crisis has

BJP-LJP-RLSP at 41% and JD(U)+RJD+INC+NCP  at 57% which would signal a wipeout for NDA in the 2015 elections if these trend holds.  Of course it is not clear if JD (U)+RJD+INC+NCP can hold together or if Dalit votes might shift to NDA if they see Manjhi's removal as an anti-Dalit act.   JD(U) is mostly trying to present Manjhi's removal as the removal of a traitor and the BJP is trying to present it as an humiliation of a Dalit.  

This will be fun. The anti-BJP parties have to stand together for it. And, the AAP example in Delhi should reinforce it: the Congress, for instance, would be wary of going on its own, less it be anihilated Delhi-style.

2010 Bihar Assembly election results

                                   votes      seats
BJP+JD(U)                   39.1%     206
RJD+LJP                      25.5%      25
INC                               8.4%        4
BSP                               3.2%        0
CPI                                1.7%       1                              
NCP                              1.8%        0
CPI-ML-L                       1.8%        0
JMM                              0.6%        1
Independent               13.2%        6


2014 Bihar LS election results

                                   votes      seats
BJP+LJP+RLSP             39.5%     31
RJD+INC+NCP             30.3%       7
JD(U)+CPI                   17.2%       2
BSP                               2.2%       0
CPI-ML-L                       1.3%       0
AAP                               1.0%       0
Independent                  4.3%       0


2014 saw a large 3 way polarization resulting in a dramatic drop in independent votes.  Assembly elections tend to see greater independent votes.  If BJP+LJP+RLSP won 39.5% at 2014 and could only poll 41% when everyone else is ganging up against it, then it is in trouble.  Since as you can see the anti-BJP camp has a much larger vote potential even at the peak of the Modi wave in 2014.  What the BJP has to count on is disunity within the anti-BJP camp.  BSP seems to want to make a big push in Bihar in 2015.  It is not clear how much of the Dalit vote they can pull.  BJP+LJP+RLSP got a bunch of the Dalit vote in 2014 and risk losing some of it to BSP.  That is why they are trying to project themselves as a sympathizer of Manjhi.   Also if the AAP gets into the act and not join the anti-BJP super-alliance in theory it will cut into the anti-BJP votes but it could also eat in the pro-BJP upper caste vote in urban areas.  AAP has good relations with JD(U) but it might hurt the AAP brand that is is not just another political party if it joins a JD(U) led alliance.

Now that Manjhi has resigned (and already expelled from the JD(U) it seems), Nitish Kumar of JD(U), with the support of RJD INC CPI and an independent, will take over as CM again this sunday.  His plan is to run later in 2015 on a plank of economic development with utterly failed in 2014 due to the pro- and anti- BJP polarization. 

His plan, of course, is to run on the plank of the pro- and anti-BJP polarization. Whether he calls it "economic development" or "mashed potatoes" is pretty much irrelevant.

Checking the news, Manjhi chose not to go through the confidence vote, facing the inevitable - but without a battle that could have done further damage to the JD(U). And Nitish is calling up both Mamata and SP's Yadavs for his swearing in: to demonstrate the unity of secular forces across India. Could be a lot worse.

Yep,  He was going to lose the vote so he resigned. Even if BJP backed him he would lose since the vast majority of JD(U) was behind Kumar.   BJP of two minds on this.  On the one hand they wanted him to down to glorious defeat so he can then rally the Dalits behind this fallen King.  On the other hand if it went to a vote they would have to go on record backing a JD(U) rebel which would make it look opportunist. 

BTW, Manjhi claimed that the reason he resigned was not he was going to lose the vote of confidence but that he and his supporters were constantly being harassed with death threats from Nitish Kumar supporters and he wanted to end any chance of violence.     

He does not look like a very capable politician.

Right before the vote of confidence it was the following distribution in Bihar Assembly

JD (U) Manjhi    12
BJP                   87
JD (U) Kumar    99
RJD                   12
INC                    5
Others               6

It was clear that even if BJP voted for Manjhi and the Manjhi faction members were not disqualified for going against the JD(U) whip Manjhi would lose.  After Manjhi broke with Kumar a few weeks ago he has been on a rampage issuing various populist ordinances that benefits Dalits in order to build up his Dalit base.  These schemes include reservation for Scheduled Tribes/Scheduled Castes (tribals and Dalits) contractors in government's work contract system; reservation for poor sections of the upper castes; free electricity to small farmers; 10-fold increase in allowances for Home-Guard jawans; pay increase for policemen and women; 35% reservation for women in government jobs and a committee to give a pay-scale to more than 3 lakh contractual teachers.   Not sure this will be translated into support for his new outfit but will bobby trap the finances of Bihar for the incoming Nitish Kumar regime.

So, how realistic is it for the AAP to try to break into the Bihar Assembly? Is there any real chance of them campaigning hard here?

My feeling is not much chance to break in.  AAP is mostly a urban phenomenon.  Other than Patna, Bihar is pretty much all rural and one of the least urbanized states of India.    AAP does have enough prestige from its crushing victory in Delhi to make JD(U) accommodate them as a very junior partner in the anti-BJP alliance.  I doubt that is the route AAP wants to take.  The logic of the rise of parties in India is really three phases :  Phase I is to lose, Phase II is to make others lose, Phase III is to win.  I think AAP will be in Phase I in Bihar for a while.  For 2013 Delhi assembly elections the AAP had hoped to jump to Phase II right away but managed to make it into Phase III right way.  Other than TDP in 1983 AP I could not think of a case where this took place where a party which is not a splinter but born from scratch jumped to Phase III right away.  It is very rare.

Almost none. They would be a spoiler there - and they know it.  They also got badly burnt on trying to compete everywhere in the LS elections: they do not have resources, infrastructure, or, for that matter, appeal for that. Bihar is a very poor, very corrupt state, with extremely strong caste divisions. It also has a bunch of local strongmen and parties: the choice is not between BJP and the discredit INC there. It is exactly the wrong area for the AAP. All they can achieve by campaigning there is helping BJP win. They will not do this.

For the moment, they are talking of trying for UP when it has its election. Even that is a tall order - but, at least, they should be competitive in Delhi suburbs. Otherwise, they will go into strong BJP-dominated states, like Gujarat, where secular opposition has not been viable recently.

Expelled former JD(U) CM Jitan Ram Manjhi formed a political front called Hindustan Awaam Morcha (HAM) (roughly translated is Indian Popular Front in Urdu.)  He seems to be focusing this front as a way to consolidate Dalits and Tribals against Upper Castes.  Not sure if this party will go anyway or which front it will align with.

Naturally I support Laloo.

There seems to be a cheating scandal in Bihar where hundreds of parents are sending in cheat sheets on entrance exams

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100+ parents and 7 policeman are arrested although before this the Bihar government seems to indicate that they are powerless to stop cheating. 700+ students are expelled. 

In a new twist former JD(U) CM Ram Manjhi which was expelled from JD(U) and removed as CM now claims he is still part of JD(U) even though he has his own HAM outfit.  I guess he is not making headway with possible pre or post alliance talks with BJP for the upcoming elections so he is hedging his bets with HAM possibility come back to JD(U).  It also could be he senses that JD(U)-RJD-INC-CPI does seem him as a threat in cutting into their Dalit vote so he wants to send a signal that he is willing to play ball with them as well. 

What exactly is happening here? How did the parents get cheat sheets? Why can't they use doors?

We talked about this in school yesterday in my speech class.  Basically, the parents are able to "sneak" in  so they are not detected (until they are) and basically take the test alongside the student. 

Very, very sad.

Parents along with professional cheating helpers know as the cheating mafia would send in textbooks and other notes into the test center.  The number of parents and cheating mafia vastly outnumber the number of policeman there to guard the test center.  The police mostly are guarding the doors and have been paid by the cheating mafia to look the other way as long as they and the parents are going through windows to send in testing aid material.  

The exam in question is the All India Secondary School Examination also known as Class X exams which are used for admissions into junior colleges or vocational schools that does not have entrance exams.  

This is turning into an fiasco for the Bihar government just in time for CM Nitish Kumar who just retook control of the Bihar government.  Understand of course that this takes place every year, especially in Bihar.  Only difference here is that the cheating is being caught on video.  Until the video went viral and large media pressure was put in the Bihar government, the original Bihar government position was that they will not going to pursue this case since they are powerless to stop this.  Under pressure from media the Bihar government started to arrest members of cheating mafia, parents and police as well as expelling students involved in the cheating caught on video.

It seems as early as next week the merger plans for JD(U), SP, JD(S), RJD, and INLD will be announced.  This plan has been talked about for months now and I did not expected it to take place given all the personalities involved.  I expected some sort of alliance of these parties until the BJP goes into decline and they will all start going there separate ways again.  Other than RJD and JD(U), there is no conflict at the state level for these parties.  INLD has strength in Harayana and has some pockets of influence in Delhi and Punjab.  Both RJD and JD(U) is strong in Bihar and have pockets of influence in Jharkhand.  SP is strong in UP and have pockets of influence in MP.  JD(S) is based in Karnataka and is part of Left Front in Kerela.  So the real conflict other than who is the leader of this combined party is really between JD(U) and RJD at the grassroots level.  Especially now that BJP seems less scary now after it got crushed in Delhi.  I await for next week to see if this will even take place. If it does and it works at the grassroots level then NDA will be in trouble in the upcoming election in Bihar.

It seems that Mulayam Singh Yadav, leader of SP, will be chairman of this new party.  Like I said, this will merely make it easier for this cluster of political movements coordinate their actions better.  Other than Bihar and Jharkhand there will not be much electoral impact of this union.  

One thing that is interesting is that BJD did not seem to show interest in joining even though BJD is part of the Janata Parivar or family of parties.  One thing that is different is BJD is still riding high as a dominate party of Orissa with INC and BJP splitting the anti-BJD vote, while  JD(U), SP, JD(S), RJD, and INLD are all down on their luck.

It seems BJP is on a membership drive with the goal of becoming the largest political party in the world.  In theory as of yesterday they reached this goal by getting to 88 million members beating the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) membership of of 87 million members.  The goal the BJP has is to get to 100 million members and it seems they will miss that target when the drive ends in a few days.  They might end up extending that deadline to get to 100 million members.

 The way they got to this number seems fishy.  One can register to become a member of the BJP by calling a cell phone number.  Of course one can register several times by calling from different cell phones and so on.    It seems that the BJP went from a membership of around 7 million to 87 million members in around 150 days.  At this rate they should have no problem getting to 100 million if they can extend the drive deadline.  How meaningful or useful these 100 million "members of BJP" are is yet to be seen.   

Of course it is most likely true that the BJP did overtake INC in terms of total real members.  The INC membership is in theory 35 million although that is also inflated by a couple of order of magnitudes.  And the recent INC membership drive is not as successful even if their methods are less fluffy.  I do not want to take away from the real gains the BJP has made in terms of real members but going around talking about 100 million members I think only will make them lose credibility.   

It is official.    SP, JD(U), RJD, JD(S), INLD, and the almost non-existent SJP will merge into Samajwadi Janata Dal (SJD) with current SP leader Mulayam as the president of the new party.  The new party will use "the cycle" symbol which SP uses today.   This merger is mostly to try to become THE anti-BJP party in Bihar and UP.  It might work in Bihar if the JD(U) and RJD cadres who detest each other on the ground can work together but will not make much of a difference in UP.  In Jharkhand this will make a marginal difference but there it is still the JMM that is emerging as the anti-BJP party while INC and JVM are in recovery mode.  In Kerela this does create problems. JD(U) in Kerela is part of the UPA government while JD(S) is part of the LF opposition.  Not clear if JD(U) and JD(S) there will merge.  Of course in Kerela there is no real JD(U) as JD(U) in Kerela now is merely a splinter of JD(S) which merged with the non-existent JD(U) there so they can get a national election symbol to run on.  Jitan Ram Manjhi and his proto-party HMS might make a claim for the existing JD(U) election symbol "the arrow."

India Today came out with an all-India poll.

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The relative vote shares of NDA and UPA seems to be same as May 2014 elections but UPA will lose seats and BJP lose its majority status mostly because of shifts of votes between UPA and non-NDA opposition to defeat NDA if elections were held today.  While the May 2014 elections ended up being an anti-UPA swing plus anti-UPA tactical voting we might be moving into an era of anti-NDA tactical voting as demonstrated by the Delhi Assembly elections.  Also there does seems to be slow revival in the confidence in INC as small erosion in confidence in Modi/NDA.   If so that bodes well for the anti-NDA grand alliance in Bihar later this year.

I know this is bihar but ABP NEWS – Nielsen Opinion Poll came out with a poll on WB assuming TMC, INC, LF, and BJP contests seperately.

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It comes out to

               vote      seats
TMC         36%     198
INC           7%        40
LF            33%       36
BJP          18%       12

INC's support is concentrated so they gain more in seats.  Since 2014 LS elections this poll seems to indicate that TMC and INC dropped a bit while BJP and LF gained a bit but no enough to make a difference in terms of seats.

ABP News Opinion Poll on Bihar has, assuming it is NDA vs JD(U)+RJD vs INC,


JD(U)+RJD           112
BJP+LJP+RLSP     124
INC                          2

Although if INC joins JD(U)+RJD then NDA would be defeated.

ABP News-Nielsen Snap Poll for Delhi

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AAP             53%
BJP              37%
INC               8%

which pretty much matches the Delhi Assembly results earlier this year.

ABP News-Nielsen national poll.  Not much has changed from a year ago

NDA          319 (-19)       41% (+2%)
UPA            73 (+13)      24% (-2%)

Seat shifts seems to stem from decline of anti-UPA tactical voting.  Usually at this stage the ruling government should poll higher than their election victory results.  I guess this kinds of is but is really flat overall. 

India Today poll has

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mostly same results as 2014 LS polls

NDA    39% (+0.4%)
UPA     23% (+1.3%)

The most recent news out of Bihar shows the difficulty of creating a broad anti-NDA alliance.  The effort to merge RJD and JD(U) has hit stags and the issue of seat sharing between RJD and JD(U) has led to a war of words which could split this grand alliance.  Also RJD has warmed up to HAM as a possible alliance partner something JD(U) abhors.   The INC has pro-JD(U) and pro-RJD factions but it seems the pro-JD(U) faction is gaining the upper hand.  There has been talks of HAM joining NDA but it is unlikely given the BJP ambitions in terms of seats it want to contest that NDA can accommodate HAM, which is another  reason for HAM to talk to RJD.  RJD could also be using the threat of joining forces with HAM to increase its leverage over JD(U).  Before  this decline in RJD-JD(U) relations.  The most likely battle lines would be

BJP+LJP+RLSP vs JD(U)+RJD+INC+CPI+CPM+NCP vs HAM.

This is still a very district possibility and will give the anti-NDA grand alliance a slight edge depending on how much votes HAM would take.  But if JD(U) and RJD has a falling out it could become

BJP+LJP+RLSP vs JD(U)+INC+CPI+CPM+NCP vs RJD+ HAM.

Which would clearly work to the NDA's advantage and lead to a likely NDA majority.

There is talk that the reason why RJD is now acting in a why to put the grand alliance in jeopardy is due to a secret BJP-RJD deal where the NDA central government will  not act against Lalu on his pending charges of corruption (he is out on bail) in return for RJD splitting the anti-NDA vote.

Anyway, the JD(U) is still trying to get the alliance back together.  What the JD(U) will propose is that out of the 243 seats, 100 goes to JD(U), 100 goes to RJD, 32 goes to INC, 9 goes to CPI/CPM and 2 goes to NCP.  JD(U) feels that its vote base is larger than RJD so this deal is very fair and what JD(U) will ask in return is that Nitish Kumar become the CM candidate for this alliance.

RJD has a record of overplaying its hand in alliance talks.  2004 LS election was the last time it pulled of an effective and productive coalition talk where RJD+LJP+INC+CPM+NCP grand alliance smashed BJP+JD(U).  Since then we have the two separate 2005 Bihar Assembly where RJD and LJP could not form an alliance and as a result lost to NDA.  In 2009 LS election RJD and LJP formed an alliance but did it as the expense of driving out INC+NCP which made all the difference between winning and losing.  This was replicated in the 2010 Bihar Assembly elections.  In 2014 LS elections the plan was for RJD+LJP+INC+NCP to run.  But RJD drove such a hard bargain that LJP left to join NDA leading to significant defeat for RJD+INC+NCP.  Most of these alliance breakdown stem from RJD's inability to control its various local faction leaders.  The same might be going on now.

There is also talk of RJD and JD(U) going to Sonia Gandhi as a neutral party who has a vested interest in a grand alliance to arbitrate a deal between the two.

Over in the NDA camp, out of the 243 seats, LJP has asked for 65 seats, RLSP 80 (although that was ratcheted down to 40 right away), while HAM has been demanding 50.  The BJP has hopes of contesting around 200.  Because of all these conflicts it is unlikely HAM will join NDA and most likely run separately.  Also LJP leader Paswan also has demanded that he be projected as the NDA CM candidate.  All BJP allies or potential allies has been raising their demands since the BJP landslide defeat in Delhi since it was clear that for BJP Bihar is now a must win.

The RJD and JD(U) have apparently (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Nitish-Kumar-will-be-CM-candidate-of-JDU-RJD-alliance-Mulayam-Singh-Yadav/articleshow/47583156.cms) settled some of their issues, as they announced that Nitish Kumar will be the CM candidate after a talk with Prasad at the house of the SP's head.

Prasad described (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bihar-assembly-polls/Lalu-Prasad-gulps-poison-to-crush-cobra-of-communalism-agrees-to-Nitish-Kumar-as-CM-candidate/articleshow/47587676.cms) the deal as drinking "poison" in order to "crush the hood of this snake, this cobra of communalism"

Yep.  This is a good first step.  RJD mostly came aboard due to pressure from Rahul Gandhi who always was pro-JD(U) in Bihar relative to RJD.  The key step will be working out candidates without rebellion.  The JD(U) and RJD voter base since the mid 1990s has been hostile to each other.  How to allocate seats and then candidates without creating rebellion will be key to beating NDA.  I suspect RJD will now expect a more favorable distribution of seats now that Lalu has agreed to Kumar as CM candidate. 

With, on paper, the creation of JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP alliances, this limits the options of all other players.  CPM-CPI now has to decide if they should swallow their pride and join this "secular alliance." 

a) Given the relationship between JD(U) and HAM which makes it hard for HAM to join this alliance, HAM can only join NDA or play a spoiler role running by itself.   
b) RJD rebel MP and famous bandit Pappu Yadav, whose wife is an INC MP from Bihar, who was pushing for a RJD-HAM alliance is now all set to break formally with RJD and form his own party, Jan Adhikar Party, or JAP.  JAP might end up joining NDA or form an alliance with  HAM or both. 
c) With the unification of the anti-NDA forces, the pressure is on BJP to try to form its own grand alliance beyond BJP-LJP-RLSP to try to get HAM into NDA.  Of course this will create more pressure on how to seat allocation in NDA.  HAM will want 50+ seats, RLSP 40+, and LJP 80+ while BJP would want to win a majority by itself which would involve contesting 200+ seats.  Of course there is only 234 seats to share.  There is also the pressure to perhaps integrate the newly created Pappu Yadav party JAP.  If the NDA tries to create such a grand alliance it will also face large number of internal rebels as the "secular alliance" is expected to face.

Looks like HAM will now join NDA.  So now it is most likely JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP-CPI-CPM vs BJP-LJP-HAM RLSP.  At least for  JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP-CPI-CPM there is a rough equation on how to divide the seats (100 each for JD(U) and RJD, 43 for INC-NCP-CPI-CPM assuming CPI-CPM joins and accepts 1-2 seats each.)  For NDA there does not seem to be any consensus on how to divide up the seats.  Of course at the ground level there is likely to be more internal conflict in the anti-NDA camp.

After RJD rebel MP and famous bandit Pappu Yadav split from RJD over the JD(U)-RJD alliance and formed Jan Adhikar Party, former RJD MP and estranged brother-in-law of Lalu Yadav, Sadhu Yadav, also formed his party,  Garib Janata Dal-Secular.  Sadhu Yadav was pretty much the number person in RJD back in the early 2000s but had a falling out with Lalu in 2009 and joined INC.  In 2014 he pretty much endorsed Modi but was blocked from joining BJP by local Bihar BJP politicans who were rivals of Sadhu Yadav.  Now he is forming his own party and I guess perhaps try to get a few seats from joining NDA.  I doubt they will take him. Pappu Yadav has real local strength and will be much more of a threat to JD(U)-RJD.

Pappu Yadav famous for murder of a state legislator from the CPI-M.

Yes.  One Ajit Sarkar, MLA of CPM and long time rival to Pappu Yadav was gunned down back in 1998.  To be fair Pappu Yadav was acquitted of thsi murder a few years back.   Anyway  Pappu Yadav is back in the news again

http://www.firstpost.com/india/ill-hit-you-with-a-slipper-pappu-yadav-manhandles-shoves-jet-airways-woman-flight-attendant-2298972.html

It seems that he was on a plane and refused to put his seat in an upright position nor stop using his cell phone.  This ended with him threatening the woman flight attendant.  Well, I guess this is better than being involved in murder.

BJP has announced that since NDA in Bihar will have to accommodate HAM that it will target to contest 160 seats as opposed to 175 seats out of 243.  There is also talk that BJP might also want to accommodate rebel RJD MP Pappu Yadav's outfit.  While this is a step in the right direction, it still leaves BJP with a mountain to climb to get the math right as that just leaves 83 seats left.  I can see HAM accepting as low as 40 seats, RLSP as low as 30 seats and LJP as low as 60 seats but that be way over 83.  And that does not include seats for Pappu Yadav's party.  Also there is issue of which party gets winnable seats.  As for CM candidate I think all NDA parties has accepted that it will be from the BJP.  But within BJP itself there are several factions fighting over who will be the CM candidate.  In theory it should be Sushil Kumar Modi but his rivals in BJP are pushing for not projecting a CM candidate and using PM Modi as the face of the party.   We will see over the next month what plays out. 

AAP indicated that they will not run in Bihar but will campaign for JD(U).

BJP ally RLSP as projected its founder/leader Upendra Kushwaha as the CM candidate.  This is most likely a ploy to maximize the number of seats RLSP is allocated.  RLSP has allocated itself 67 seats, LJP 74 seats and BJP 102 seats with no mention of HAM.  LJP and HAM has both indicated that the NDA candidate for CM should be from BJP.  LJP did indicate that they oppose 5 HAM MLAs from joining the alliance since they were LJP rebels that betrayed LJP back in 2005 and 2010 (when LJP was fighting against BJP+JD(U)).

Just to give a sense of how different players in Bihar have shifted alliances over the years, I will write down where each player stood each election in Bihar since 1977 LS election.  The players are

INC
BJP
Sharad Yadav (JD(U)
Nitish Kumar (JD(U))
Lalu Yadav (RJD)
Ram Vilas Paswan (LJP)
Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))
Jitan Ram Manjhi (HAM)
Upendra Kushwaha (RLSP)

As one can see, just about every play has been allied with each other and fought against each other except BJP has never been allied with INC.  Note that Jitan Ram Manjhi  and Upendra Kushwaha did not become significant players in Bihar politics until around 10-15 years ago where as Sharad Yadav, Nitish Kumar, Lalu Yadav, and Ram Vilas Paswan were significant players since the 1970s. But is is interesting to track all their careers since the 1970s.  Jagannath Mishra was a 3 time INC CM of Bihar who split in 1998 to create BJC(R).  He then merged BJC(R) into NCP and then joined JD(U).  His son who was a JD(U) MLA joined HAM and he revived BJC(R) and is supporting NDA in 2015.

1977 LS and 1977 Assembly  
(Proto-BJP (JNP) + Sharad Yadav(JNP)+ Nitish Kumar (JNP) + Lalu Yadav (JNP) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP)) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1980 LS
Proto-BJP (JNP) vs ( Sharad Yadav(JNP(S)) + Nitish Kumar (JNP(S)) + Lalu Yadav (JNP(S)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP(S))) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1980 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JNP(S)) + Nitish Kumar (JNP(S)) + Lalu Yadav (JNP(S)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JNP(S)))  vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1984 LS
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(LKD) + Nitish Kumar (LKD) + Lalu Yadav (LKD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (LKD))  vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC)) [WINNING FRONT]

1985 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(LKD) + Nitish Kumar (LKD) + Lalu Yadav (LKD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (LKD) + Upendra Kushwaha(LKD)) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))  [WINNING FRONT]

1989 LS  
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))

1990 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(INC))

1991 LS
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Nitish Kumar (JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD)) [WINNING FRONT]  vs ( INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1995 Assembly
BJP vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) +  Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD))[WINNING FRONT] vs (Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) vs (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1996 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Lalu Yadav (JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD)) [WINNING FRONT by a small margin] vs  (INC + Jagannath Mishra(INC))

1998 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (SAP) + Upendra Kushwaha(SAP)) [WINNING FRONT] vs (Sharad Yadav(JD) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD)) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) vs INC vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

1999 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + INC) vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

2000 Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Ram Vilas Paswan (JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U))) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) [WINNING FRONT by small margin] vs INC vs Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))

2004 LS
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) + Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra(JD(U)) vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + INC) [WINNING FRONT]

2005 Feb Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT by small margin] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD)) vs (Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + INC

2005 Oct Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) +Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(RJD) + INC) vs Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP)

2009 LS and 2010 Assembly
(BJP + Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U))+ Upendra Kushwaha(JD(U)) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U))) [WINNING FRONT] vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP)) vs INC

2014 LS
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP))[WINNING FRONT] vs  (Nitish Kumar (JD(U))  + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) +  Jitan Ram Manjhi(JD(U)) + Jagannath Mishra (JD(U)))  vs  (Lalu Yadav (RJD) + INC)

2015 Assembly (for now)
(BJP +  Ram Vilas Paswan(LJP) + Upendra Kushwaha(RLSP) + Jitan Ram Manjhi(HAM) + Jagannath Mishra (BJC(R))) vs (Nitish Kumar (JD(U)) + Sharad Yadav(JD(U)) +  Lalu Yadav (RJD) + INC)

One of BJP's senior Bihar leader C.P. Thakur announced that he wanted to be the NDA CM candidate for Bihar.  The BJP is in a dilemma.  In theory the leader of Bihar BJP is  Sushil Modi (no relation to PM Modi).  But  Sushil Mod's OBC background has the BJP upper caste base somewhat unhappy.   So the compromise was that the BJP has been hinting that perhaps BJP and ergo NDA will not project a CM candidate in the elections.  Now upper caste  C.P. Thakur jumped the gun and threw his hat into the ring.

Come July 7th there will be a election for the Bihar upper house, or the Bihar Legislative Council.  There are 75 members of the Council and every 2 years around 1/3 are up for re-election.  Just like the India Upper House the election as mostly based on various local assemblies in addition to the Bihar Assembly.  So MLAs will vote to election some MLC (Member of Legislative Assembly), some are elected by various local assemblies, and some are nominated. 

All in all 24 are up for re-election in July.  In the anti-NDA front, the seat allocation are JD(U) 10, RJD 10, INC 3, and NCP 1.  On the NDA front it will be BJP 18, LJP 4, and RLSP 2.  Overall the anti-NDA front are in worst shape in terms of rebellions which is an ominous omen for the Assembly election in the Fall.  As usual both sides has resorted to nominating candidates of very significant criminal backgrounds as these candidates often have the money and muscle power to get the support of various members Bihar or regional assemblies. 

In 2010 JD(U)-BJP swept the polls with JD(U) winning 115 seats and BJP winning 91 seats out of the 243.  Out of the 115 JD(U) winners about 19 have joined HAM but it is said about half of them want to contest on the BJP ticket.  Most likely BJP will end up contesting about 140-150 seats.  We know that JD(U) will contest 100 seats.  What is interesting is that the way the seats will be divided within both alliances with be an bias toward the current MLAs.  In other words out of the nearly 100 JD(U) sitting MLAs, JD(U) will work to make sure the seats they occupy are the seats that gets allocated to JD(U).  This way chances of rebellion is lowered since the current MLA will have resources to run as a rebel if they are not renominated.  The same logic exists for the nearly 100 BJP MLAs (assuming BJP accepts the 9-10 JD(U) turn HAM MLAs to join and run as BJP). 

So in other words what we will end up with is the seats the BJP currently occupy and end up being allocated to BJP the BJP candidate will almost certainly NOT face a JD(U) candidate but RJD or INC.  And all these seats that JD(U) will be assigned which will be occupied by the current JD(U) incumbent will mostly NOT face a BJP opponent but a NDA ally (HAM or RLSP or LJP.)  So most races will be JD(U) vs BJP ally or BJP vs JD(U) ally (RJD INC or NCP.)  If this is the case watch for RJD to focus all their attacks on the BJP and vice versa in the campaign season in the fall.

As far as the seat allocation for the NDA, the BJP logic is the following:  There are 243 assembly seats and 40 LS seats.  So it is 6 to 1.  In 2014 BJP ran in 30 LS seats, LJP 7, and RLSP 4 (really 3 since RLSP ran a candidate in a seats that is not allocated to it and won pretty much no votes.)  So the seat allocation should be BJP 180 LJP 42 RLSP 18.  Then since HAM has to be accommodated all three will give up some seats to help HAM and it is OK if most of that comes from BJP.  Ergo BJP logic that BJP should contest 150 seats or so.

RLSP rejects this logic.  It says that LS elections are LS elections and assembly elections and that the seats share has to be renegotiated.   

I feel RLSP has logic and history on its side.  The deals that INC started to make with various Dravidian regional parties (DMK or AIADMK) in TN starting in the 1970s had the this logic:  Since INC is the national party concerned about national politics, then LS elections INC will get a larger seat allocation in the alliance while in assembly election the regional party (DMK or AIADMK)  gets a much larger share of the seat allocation since the main goal of the regional party is to run the state with INC support.  Even the BJP has adopted this logic in its alliance dynamic.  In Maharashtra, both in 2004 and 2009 LS elections, the BJP got 26 out of 48 seats while SHS got 22 out of 48 seats.  But in the assembly elections in Maharashtra in the same years (2004 and 2009) it is roughly 160 for SHS and 120 for BJP.

Trying to copy what Modi did in the 2014 election campign, JD(U) is coming out with a comic series that depicts Nitsh Kumar's childhood and how he was shaped into the leader that Bihar needs. Not sure this is going to work and most likely might backfire in a place like Bihar.  In TN this might work but not Bihar.

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Sitting JD(U) MLA Anant Singh has been arrested for kidnapping and murder.

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He has been in trouble with the law for at least a decade on various charges of murder, kidnapping and rape.  None of that seems to have stopped him from being re-elected by ever larger winning margins.  Most likely this arrest will blow over and not get in the way of him being nominated by JD(U) and reelected.  If JD(U) chooses not to nominate him then he will most likely join a NDA party and win on their ticket or run as an independent sinking JD(U)'s chances.  As a result being nominated by JD(U) is and reelected is the most likely outcome.

Over the course of 24 hours the BJP got hammered by 3 separate scandals which together could impact the image of the BJP in urban areas in Bihar.  It is interesting that all scandals involve up-and-coming BJP women politicians.

First is the Lalit Modi (no relation to PM Modi) scandal.  Lalit Modi was commissioner of cricket's Indian Premier League and was found guilty of committing financial fraud.  Somehow he managed to escape to UK several years ago and the Indian government has revoked his travel documents so he could not travel from UK.  It recently came to light that

Former CM of Delhi and now Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj
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and
Rajasthan CM Vasundhara Raje
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Both tried to lobby the UK government to allow Modi to travel even while the official position of the Indian government is that Modi's travel documents are invalid.  It came out in the last 24 hours that there is a signed document by Vasundhara Raje to that affect after Vasundhara Raje denied (or does not recall) that such a document exists.  In many ways these acts can be viewed as treason against the Indian state.

Then we have

Smriti Irani who is Minister of Human Resource Development
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She is a member of the Upper House and ran unsuccessfully against Rahul Gandhi in 2014 but by making a race of it was consider to be a future heavyweight in the BJP.  It seems that she had claimed  in her election paperwork that she got a degree from Yale U if the USA.  It turns out all she did was attend a 6 day seminar at Yale U.  Just yesterday the Delhi high court ruled that it will hear this case based on their view that there is enough evidence for possible election fraud.

Lastly we have

Pankaja Munde Minister of Rural DevelopmentWomen and Child Welfare for Maharashtra
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She is actually very big cheese in the Maharashtra BJP as she is the daughter of the deceased leader of the Maharashtra BJP Gopinath Munde whose would mostly would been CM if he did not had an untimely death in an accident in 2014.  Pankaja Munde now accused of giving out government contracts for distribution of food to poor/tribal children to various vendors without a bidding process which is a must under the law.  It turns out a lot of these vendors are non-existent and other have been convicted of selling rotton food and already been blacklisted by the government.   There is talk that it is the BJP CM Fadnavis  himself that could have leaked this to the media as it is possible that Fadnavis sees Pankaja Munde  as a long term threat to his position as leader of the BJP in Maharashtra.

Speaking of cheating on exams.  For the upcoming Bihar Legislative Council (upper house) election on July 7th, a candidate of special attention is one Ranjit Singh alias Ranjit Don which is nominated by the LJP. 

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The reason why is because Ranjit Singh is known as the kingpin of all big exam paper leaks.  He has a record of organizing massive exam paper sales for almost two decades as well as some time in jail for leaking medical entrance questions papers.  His exam paper cheating empire is not limited to Bihar but extends to several Indian states.  BTW, Ranjit Singh himself got into college back in the 1990s with, you guessed it, forged documents as well as high exam scores based on having a copy of the exam questions ahead of time.

It seems like the real reason why Anant Singh was arrested was because Lalu Yadav had enough of him and his various crime sprees and pressured Nitish Kumar to have him arrested ahead of the election and keep him there.   For sure he is guilty but he has been guilty many other times.  This time he is guilt AND ran foul with a major political power broker.  Anant Singh's supporters now know the gig is up and to show their strength and their ability to make trouble for the JD(U) they went on a rampage in parts of Patna.  We will see how this develops.

The Lalit Modi scandal gets funnier and funnier.  It seems the document that Rajasthan CM Vasundhara Raje signed vouching for Lalit Modi saying that his criminal convictions are all trumped up charges by the UPA regime and that he should get travel documents from the UK authorities to travel internationally.  The same document that she signed and now admits to signing also ask the UK authorities not under any circumstances let the Indian government know she signed such a document.  Why ? Because she knows it is treason to ask foreign government to help a know criminal and wanted fugitive of the Indian government.    it seems the real issue is that Lalit Modi had friends and enemies that cross party lines.  Lalit Modi had several enemies within the BJP as well.  So when the BJP came to power the anti-Lalit Modi gang loudly announced that Lalit Modi was a criminal and must be brought back to justice.  So now the BJP is trapped.  The only defense BJP has for Vasundhara Raje's actions is that Lalit Modi is a victim of UPA persecution but the same BJP regime also announced earlier that Lalit Modi is a criminal through and through.    It is said that Lalit Modi has enemies in INC but is friendly with NCP even as both parties are part of UPA.  The only hope for BJP has now is that more NCP politicians are named as also helping Lalit Modi illegally as to divert attention away from  Vasundhara Raje .

In an attempt to deal a blow to JD(U) government's claims of development,  the central government BJP minister of power claimed that a) 98% of power used in Bihar are not produced in Bihar as the Bihar power industry is non-existent and 54% of the power shipped to Bihar are stolen and a result the power bill for the regular consumer is twice of what it should be.  The JD(U) Bihar minister of power of course rejects this.  What is interesting about the BJP's strategy of trying to debunk the JD(U) narrative of economic development is that the BJP was also beating their chest during the 2005-2013 JD(U)-BJP Bihar government era about the Bihar record of economic development. 

As for the Left parties, it is clear that Maoist CPIML(L) will not join JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP.  CPI is leaning toward joining and CPM is leaning toward not joining.  CPI might decide in the end to run with a CPM-CPI-CPIML(L) leftist alliance to keep Leftist solidarity rather than go with  JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP.  In some pockets this decision will hurt JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP.  Ideally for JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP, both CPI and CPM will join. There is no way CPOML(L) will join.

Pappu Yadav, Bihar MP and former member of RJD, will take his Jan Kranti Adhikar Party  into the NDA.  This will be another party the NDA has to accommodate for seat allocation in addition to LJP,  RLSP and HAM.

Bihar legislative council elections today.  Various members of all sorts of local assemblies will vote for MLC today.  Counting of votes on 7/10.  This is first test of NDA (BJP-LJP-RLSP-HAM) vs Grand anti-NDA front (JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP).  Nitish Kumar seems very confident and said that the BJP made this election a  'prestige issue' and the results will speak for itself.

NDA wins Bihar Upper house elections.  NDA wins 13 out of 24 seats while JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP wins 10 out of 24 seat.  The last seat is won by a pro-RJD independent.    NDA increased its seats from 6 to 13.  

The pro-RJD independent that won, jailed gangster Ritlal Yadav
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is at present lodged in the Beur Central Jail in connection with multiple criminal cases, including murder charges, defeated candidates of BJP and the RJD-backed JD(U) candidate.  Rital Yadav, who was appointed the general secretary of the RJD during the LS polls last year, had entered the poll fray as an independent after the party declined to field him from the Patna seat which had gone to the JD(U) quota under the seat-sharing formula.

This set of results shows that the RJD and JD(U) vote blocs are not jelling at the ground.  A warning sign to JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP ahead of assembly elections a couple of months from now.

Despite the NDA victory in the Bihar Upper House elections, it is not all smooth sailing for NDA.  The ever growing Vyapam scam in MP is hurting the Modi/BJP brand and image.  Vyapam is the name of the MP Professional Examination Board which conducts test for admission to various professional courses and for recruitment to government jobs.  Its current structure was created by the BJP government in MP years ago.  There is a ever larger investigation of various instances of cheating and bribery involving  senior officials and businessmen in MP. What is worst ever since serious investigations started it dozes of suspects and witnesses have died under mysterious circumstances.  The BJP CM of MP is under greater pressure to resign and the BJP brand is taking a hit.  If this is not resolved soon this will hurt the NDA brand in urban Bihar middle class voters.   

ABP News-Nielsen poll has

JD(U)-RJD-INC with a lead over BJP-LJP-RLSP 129 vs 112 seats.  Vote share has JD(U)-RJD-INC at 43% and BJP-LJP-RLSP at 32%.  This result is almost the same as a ABP News-Nielsen poll done back in May.  I find it hard to believe that if JD(U)-RJD-INC has a lead of 43%vs 32% the seat lead would be so small.  One of these two sets of leads is off.  Anyway the net implication of the poll is that JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP has a small advantage over NDA which has not changed the last couple of months.

It seems that NDA will just not project a CM candidate and instead have Modi be the face of NDA in Bihar.  I guess the conflict that will ensue if NDA picked one of a dozen rivals for the spot could lead to significant rebellion in its ranks.  The downside of this is if NDA loses it would lead to another diminishing of the Modi brand much like the Delhi elections has done.

Looks like Left parties will contest on their own and not join anti-NDA grand alliance.  It will be CPI CPM CPI(ML) AIFC SUC and RSP that will contest all 243 seats. 

Zee News poll has

BJP-LJP-RLSP 45% with 105 seats and JD(U)-RJD-INC at 42% with 101 seats.

JD(U) RJD and INC formally announce tomorrow alliance for Bihar elections.  JD(U) and RJD will contest 100 seats each and INC 40 seats.  Not clear who will contest the last 3 seats.  Most likely NCP.  I would be interested to see the distribution of seats.  On the surface it seems INC has gotten a fairly good deal.  If JD(U) and RJD are smart the 40 seats that INC gets should be in seats that has strong upper caste strength.  The path that INC has to take toward revival in Bihar would have to target the BJP upper caste  vote base. 

Just like before, the JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP seems to have good alliance dynamics, for now, at the leadership level ergo the smooth agreement on seats distribution but they will have problems at the grassroots level as their social bases might clash.  For BJP-LJP-RLSP-HAM it is opposite.  The leadership level are in conflict especially between LJP and HAM as both vie to the the party of the Dalits in NDA.  As a result there are deadlock in seat distribution.  But once they get past that the NDA alliance is more likely to work at the grassroots level.

NCP is calling the 3 seats it is getting in the JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP alliance an insult and that it was not even consulted on the seat distribution.  It is demanding 12 seats.

Modi is double downing on Bihar.  He announced an unheard of $20 billion package for Bihar development at a rally in Bihar today.  I guess he feels he must win Bihar or his political fortunes will fall into decline so he is putting all political capital to use for this win.

Meanwhile anti-BJP grand alliance running into more alliance trouble.  NCP is demanding 12 seats as opposed to the 3 it got or it will pull out of the alliance.  SP is also protesting that it did not get any seats.  To be fair the SP base in Bihar has declined since the 90s and now is non-existent.  AIMIM which is a Telegana based Muslim party is threatening to run candidates in Bihar which could also also damage the JD(U)-RJD-INC alliance.

BJP which had hoped to contest 185 seats out of 243 seats now came out saying it will contest 170 seats.  The LJP and RLSP position is still that BJP contest 102 seats with the remaining going to NDA allies (LJP RLSP and perhaps HAM.)  RLSP insists that RLSP contest 67 seats and LJP 74 seats.  HAM insists that BJP contest 122 seats.   This whole thing has to be locked down in early Sept or else the NDA would not nominate candidates in time for any real campaigning.  The BJP will most likely win this game of poker as LJP and RLSP will have no place to go since that anti-BJP alliance seat sharing process is already done.

Still deadlock in NDA over seat distribution.  After LJP and RLSP held a press conference indicating that BJP should contest 102 seats, there are talks that RLSP is holding talks with RJD.  Not sure how this will go anyway as RJD JD(U) INC pretty much already allocated seats already. 

NCP will exit the JD(U)-RJD-INC alliance as it is not satisfied with the 3 seats it got.  Most likely NCP will run on its own or join the Left Front alliance.  RJD decided to placate SP by giving 5 seats from its quota  so now it is JD(U)-RJD-INC-SP alliance.

Election schedule announce.  5 rounds of from 10/10 to 11/5.  Counting is on 11/8.

Most recent developments seems to be working against JD(U)-RJD-INC grand alliance. NCP broke away as did SP from the alliance.  It seems SP-NCP will run as a bloc perhaps with the Left Front alliance.  JMM which had an understanding with  JD(U)-RJD-INC seems to have broken that understanding and will run candidates in tribal areas in Bihar.    On the other hand there are still no seat allocation deals clinched yet for BJP-RLSP-LJP-HAM.  There seems to be some sniping between HAM and LJP to be "the Dalit party" in the NDA.

A recent C-voter survey did give JD(U)-RJD-INC an edge.  C-Voter gives JD(U)-RJD-INC 116 and 132 seats out of 243 with 43% of the vote while it gives BJP-RLSP-LJP-HAM 94 to 110  with 40% of the poll.

Judging from the history of Dalit parties, I don't think the HAM/LJP dispute is going to be solved anytime soon.

ITG-Cicero survey has NDA at 125 seats with 42% of the vote versus JD(U)-RJD-INC at 106 seats with 40% of the vote.  They actually have some cross-tabes which are interesting namely by caste.

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As expected, NDA is strong with upper castes with any upper caste votes for JD(U)-RJD-INC due to residual influce INC has with upper castes.   RJD has Yadavs and Muslims while JD(U) is strong with Kurmis.  The surprise here is the level of support NDA has with Dalits.  Also NDA votes share of Muslims is relatively high.   The stronger performance of NDA has more to do with its ability to capture some Yadav and Muslim votes as well as lead with Dalits.  Perhaps having HAM with NDA is helping after all.

BJP sources say that NDA is close to seat deal.  It seems like it will be BJP 170 LJP 40 RLSP 20 HAM 13.  But it seems this is what the BJP is pushing for and it also seems that LJP and RLSP is pushing back.  I guess the BJP source is saying that they are close to a deal because LJP and RLSP will have no choice but to accept this deal.

Rumor is that NDA will announce a seat sharing deal today and that BJP has scaled down the seats they will contest from 170 to 160.

Latest word is that the NDA seat sharing allocation will be BJP 160 LJP 40 RLSP 25 HAM 15.  It seems that they cannot announce this because HAM leader Manjhi insists on more then 15 seats.  The BJP is asking that 5 of the JD(U) MLAs that defected over to HAM run as BJP candidates.  These disagreements are sticking points  that prevents a formal agreement.  It seems RLSP pretty much accepted these allocations.

Even as HAM leader and former JD(U) CM Manjhi rejected NDA offer of 15 seats and are working to renegotiate as he demands something like 40 seats, Manjhi's son was just arrested with about $10K worth of cash in his car on suspicion of tax avoidance.  Not sure who is behind this (JD(U) or BJP) or just bad luck but it seems this will have the effect on adding pressure on Manjhi. 

It seems NDA reached an agreement on seat sharing.  BJP 160 LJP 40 RLSP 23 HAM 20.  In addition 5 HAM ex-JD(U) MLAs will contest as BJP candidates.

The AP/Telegana based Muslim communal party AIMIM will run candidates in the anti-NDA bastion of Seemanchal where they are a high concentration of Muslims.  Most likely this will not hurt the JD(U)-RJD-INC alliance as in the 2014 LS elections JD(U)-CPI and RJD-INC-NCP ran separately and the NDA still did not win here.  On the positive side of the ledger for JD(U)-RJD-NCP it seems that SS will also run in a bunch of seats which could hurt NDA although SS ran in 2010 Bihar assembly elections and did not seem to dent JD(U)-BJP.  JMM, a week after claiming it will run in all 243 seats now is coming around to joining JD(U)-RJD-INC.  Looking at how JMM did in 2010 Assembly elections and 2014 LS elections in Bihar, I can see JMM getting 2-3 seats.  Main problem with JMM joining JD(U)-RJD-INC is that the seats that JMM could realistically win happen to have JD(U) incumbents which JD(U) won when it was allied with BJP.   

What do you mean by SS? It can't be Shiv Sena.

SS is Shiv Sena.  My fault.  SHS is the correct 3 letter acronym in ECI for Shiv Sena.  I got lazy.

I didn't know there were Marathi in Bihar.

Funny, since the Sena constantly make hay over evil, weak (and worse: potentially Muslim!) North Indians taking away jobs from the swarthy, heroic Marathi Manus.

I've seen them referred to as SS a lot, I just was surprised they were contesting Bihar.

SP-NCP pretty much stitched up their alliance.  With NDA finalizing their seat sharing arrangement, the 4 alliances that will run will be

BJP-LJP-RLSP-HAM
JD(U)-RJD-INC (maybe JMM, we will see)
SP-NCP
CPI-CPI(ML)-CPM-SUCI-RSP-FBL

It seems SP-NCP might try to get more allies but their pretty much ruled out AIMIM and RJD Pappu Yadav's JAM (Jan Adhikar Morcha) so I am not sure who is left for them to ally with especially with JMM looking to join JD(U)-RJD-INC.

To be frank my view is that JAM is a much bigger threat to JD(U)-RJD-INC as JAM will eat into the Yadav vote while the Musilm vote will most likely vote tactically to defeat NDA.

Anyway JD(U)-RJD-INC is now moving on the the next phase of the negotiations which is exactly which party will be allocated with seat.  There is no point for a party to get a lot of seat allocations if all of them are partisan strongholds for an opposing alliance.  The NDA just came up with the equation on seat allocation so they are not in that phase yet.   In this phase I suspect JD(U)-RJD-INC will have a harder time than NDA since there are significant number of JD(U) incumbents who will not want to step aside for RJD or INC.  BJP has a lot of incumbents too but they got an allocation of 160 seats.

There are no Marathi in Bihar.  SHS runs BJP rebel or extreme Hindutva candidates all the time in LS or even assembly elections outside of Maharashtra.  Of course all it does is hurts BJP, a bit, by taking a small share of the vote.  In fact SHS should do poorly in Bihar since in Maharashtra, SHS and its MNS splinter often demonize Biharis and other Northern Indians .  But in both 2009 and 2014 SHS actually ran some candidates in Northern Bihar urban areas and gets a OK percent of the vote (3%-6%.)  So SHS might actually do some damage to NDA if they make a real effort.

I see, I made the silly mistake of assigning coherent ideology to the Sena.

Now that HAM got a "better deal" of 20 seats instead of the original 15 plus 5 of JD(U) MLAs which defected to HAM with Manjhi will contest on the BJP ticket it is said that many within LJP is getting angry that HAM's political profile is raised which threaten's LJP's role especially among Dalits.  So I guess this sniping will go on.

At this stage SHS is feeling vulnerable and looking to hit back at BJP.  One can really see SHS as an opposition force within NDA to BJP.  SHS always seen itself as the senior partner of the Hindutva combine in Maharashtra.  Now it has been overtaken by BJP in the last assembly elections and fearing of being dumped by BJP for NCP or SHS splinter MNS it does look for ways to hit back at BJP without completely upsetting the apple cart of NDA rule in the Center and Maharashtra.  Contesting on its own in other states is one way to warn BJP not to take it for granted.   

Let the defection games begin.

Now that the NDA, in theory, has locked down the seat allocation between the NDA parties and even as LJP grumbles, the BJP announced 43 BJP candidates.  The very same day a LJP MP resigned to protest how the LJP is treated.  The reality is, in my view, that the BJP candidates are in seats inside this LJP MP district and he wanted LJP candidates in his district so he can continue being the political overlord of his district by making sure that the MLAs elected in his seat are loyal to him.  Clear with BJP candidates there this cannot take place.  Also 2 BJP MLA which were nominated immediately had a meeting with JD(U) leader and CM Nitish Kumar and indicated they will join the "secular alliance" to fight communal forces led by the BJP which they were a part of just a day earlier.   

Of course once JD(U)-RJD-INC start nominating candidates there will be plenty of defections the other way.  The we can real plenty of news articles that fit this template which I posted in the 2014 India general election thread.

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<Politician A> has left <Party X> to join <Party Y> along with his/her followers.  Speaking in the presence of <Leader M> of <Party Y> with his/her followers, <Politician A> indicated that he/she was being sidelined in <Party X> and frustrated by the increasing autocratic nature of the way <Party X> was run and led by <Leader N who is most likely a rival of Leader M>.   <Politician A> also said that he/she was disturbed by the anti-People policies of <Party X> and decided that the only way he/she can fight for pro-People policies is to join <Party Y>.  <Politician A> concluded by saying that he/she does not seek any nomination for any office and only wishes to fight as a regular party worker for <Party Y> under the leadership of <Leader M> in the upcoming elections.

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It is very likely that once seats are allocated on the JD(U)-RJD-INC side there will be a bunch of rebellions from JD(U).  This is because the seat allocation between JD(U)-RJD-INC is JD(U) 100 RJD 100 INC 40 (and perhaps JMM 3.)  But JD(U) has 97 sitting MLAs after 19 defected to HAM with Manji.  JD(U) will of course give almost all these 19 seats of HAM defectors to RJD.  Still for geographical diversity as well as taking into account where INC and RJD has strength is is almost certain that a bunch of JD(U) MLA will not be re-nominated which in turn will lead more defections/rebellions.

Zee news survey NDA at 140 seats with 50.8% of the vote and JD(U)-RJD-INC at 70 seats with 42.5% of the vote.  It also has 41.2% of Muslims voting for NDA which makes this polls somewhat fishy. And if Muslims are voting for NDA at a 41.2% rate which I guess is in theory then NDA should really be at 200 seats.

And 33 extra seats for the Left/SP/AIMM seems a bit too high.

HAM seems to be turning into a confederation of clans.  Out of the 13 candidates HAM announced so far it features 2 father-son pairs including Manjhi and son.  Of course LJP is similar with LJP candidates including LJP leader Paswan's brother and nephew.  Only reason Paswan's son is not on the list is because he is already a MP.   I would say about half the expected rebellions in all parties, especially the OBC and Dalit parties like JD(U) RJD LJP RLSP and HAM, due to seat allocations are due to some party kingpin wanting to hoist some family member as a candidate over some other local political baron.

Here is one way to make sure one is re-nominated.   One RJD MLA Bhai Dinesh threatens suicide by  immolation  if he is not renominated by RJD.  It seems the current play is to for ex-RJD member  Dadan Pahalwan who also has a bandit background to join JD(U) to contest.   Dadan Pahalwan  had defected from RJD to BSP years back and now will join JD(U) as this seat has been allocated to JD(U).

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/bihar-poll-rjd-mla-threatens-to-kill-self-if-denied-ticket/articleshow/49024245.cms

Of course Bhai Dinesh is know for theatrics.  Over the last 5 years he has been on several "fast until death" campaign over various "injustices."  

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Here is Bhai Dinesh on one of his many other protests and fasts from over the years.

If seems JD(U)-RJD-INC has finished up allocating seats between different parties.  The division of seats seems to be based on caste distributions of different districts with an attempt to keep JD(U) incumbents where possible.  RJD and INC both had demands on seats where high Yadav and/or Muslim concentrations which are seen as more winnable.  JD(U) made a deal with INC where a couple JD(U) members will run as INC candidates as a way to get around this and avoid defections/rebellions.   On the whole this process seems to have gone better than expected.  Most likely JMM will run in 3 seats.  We will see what the blow-back next week as candidates are announced and we see the defections roll in. 

Looks like talks for JMM to join JD(U)-RJD-INC failed.  So it will be JD(U) 101 RJD 101 and INC 41.

LJP leader Ram Vilas Paswan's son-in-law Anil Kumar Sadhu raised the banner of revolt over the denial of LJP ticket.  He said that his Dalit Sena organization which is a wing of LJP will run candidates in several seats to try to defeat his father-in-law.  He said his wife joined him in opposing her father and her father's party, LJP.

Looks like the SP-NCP alliance will be SP-NCP-JKAM-SJP-SSP-NPP.  JKAM is Pappu Yadav's Jan Kranti Adhikar Morcha, SJP is Samajwadi Janata Party which is a remnant party of the big split of JD back in 1990-1991.  NPP is National People's Party which is a pro-NDA splinter based on the Northeast which split from NCP in 2014.  Samarth Samaj Party is a another pro-NDA NCP Bihar splinter which split from NCP back in 2014.  It will be SP 85 seats, NCP 40 seats, JKAM 64 seats,  SJP 23 seats, SSP 28 seats, and NPP 3 seats.  Its is quite funny that two NCP splinters from 2014 are now a year later back with NCP in an alliance.  Other than JKAM I do not see how this front will make that much of a difference.  JKAM has the ability to take Yadav votes away in marginal seats from JD(U)-RJD-INC.

Here is a news story which fits my template

http://www.aninews.in/newsdetail2/story234036/joined-bjp-to-be-part-of-bihar-039-s-development-says-former-jd-u-mla-update-.html

Where former JD(U) MLA Satish Kumar defected to BJP

"When Nitish separated from BJP, he did not take the opinion of any MLA. Our views were ignored. So I have finally decided to do this for development of Bihar. Development of Bihar is possible only under the able leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi,"

Of course he did not leave JD(U) when all this (JD(U) split from BJP which as in 2013) took place but only after he did not get a JD(U) ticket 2 years later.

SHS will contest 150 seats in Bihar.

I imagine most of these will more than a bit shady, to put it lightly.

One Ashok Gupta showed up at RLSP leader Upendra Kushwaha's residence where he was holding a press conference and made a scene crying and sobbing.

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It appears he wanted to contest as a candidate on the RLSP ticket but was denied such a ticket.  He also claimed at the press conference that he paid $100K to RLSP to get to contest and was cheated out of his money.

What is funny is that the press conference was mostly about Upendra Kushwaha complaining that the BJP cheated him out of a certain seat where he wanted RLSP to contest and that he is coming public with his complaint and will take it to the highest level of the BJP.  And it is interrupted by a man that claimed that  Upendra Kushwaha cheated him.

More family based rebellions.  It seems both the son-in-law of LJP leader Ram Vilas Paswan and HAM leader Jitan Ram Manjhi who both were denied tickets has raised the banner of revolt and both will most likely join RJD rebel Pappu Yadav's JAP (Jan Adhikar Party).

JD(U)-RJD-INC announces candidates for 242 out of 243 seats.  It contains 2 of Lalu Yada's sons.  Most of JD(U) and RJD candidates are dalits or OBCs.  While 40% of INC candidates are upper caste.  This matches my perceived strategy of JD(U)-RJD-INC that JD(U) and RJD will run in seats with OBC and Dalits and try to corner that vote while INC will run in seats where upper castes are more populous and try to hit the BJP core vote base of Upper castes.  There is no way JD(U) or RJD can compete with BJP for upper caste votes but perhaps INC could. 

We should see what the blow-back is.  One sitting JD(U) MLA who was not re-nominated already joined SP and will run on the SP ticket.

 IndiaTV-C-Voter opinion poll survey.  NDA 117 seats with 43% of the vote, "Grand Alliance" (JD(U)-RJD-INC) 112 seats with 42% of the vote, Others 14 seats.  So neck-to-neck.

This sort of result kinds of makes sense.  In LS 2014 it was

BJP-LJP-RLSP      39.5%
INC-RJD-NCP      30.3%
JD(U)-CPI           17.2%

If we add INC-RJD-NCP and JD(U)-CPI we get 47.5%.   But NCP and CPI broke away. In 2010 Bihar assembly election NCP and CPI ran by themselves and both got around 1.8% of the vote each.  So without these two parties INC-RJD-NCP would be at 44%.    Now take into account the defection of HAM from JD(U) to NDA which lets call it 2%, this would put BJP-LJP-RLSP-HAM at 41.5% and  "Grand Alliance" at 42%.

Now it is true that NDA lost a lot of luster since the 2014 Modi landslide.  But on the flip side the merging of two hostile social basis of JD(U) and RJD also must have cost it defections which we must include Pappu Yadav's JAP.  AIMIM's entry trying to target Muslim votes.  So the poll is mostly saying that these factors mostly cancel each other out.

Now the candidate list of are mostly out the infra-front conflict will come to the  fore especially in the "Grand Alliance" so we might expect the polling numbers of drop for the "Grand Alliance."  All things equal it seems that the poll is indicating a slight advantage for NDA because I believe the poll has not reflected the conflict between RJD's Yadav social base and the JD(U)'s  Kushwahas and Kurmis social bases.  

What is positive for "Grand Alliance" is that 46.8% want Nitish Kumar to be CM.

BJP Bihar MP Raj Kumar Singh blasts the Bihar BJP unit for selling tickets to contest to criminals.  Several BJP MLAs who were not renominated also are making similar claims.  Raj Kumar Singh has non-political background and only joined in 2013 to contest on the BJP ticket in the 2014 election.  He is known for a clean image when it comes to fighting corruption.  I suspect what is going on is that in several seats the sitting BJP MLA does not match the caste profile the BJP is looking for as part of its strategy of going after the Yadav and other OBC vote. So they had to search for a local kingpin that fit that profile.  It could be that money changed hands but the main motivation is the right caste balance.

It seems that Anant Singh has resigned from JD(U) and will contest as an independent from behind bars.  Anant Singh comes from the powerful Bhumihar upper caste and is still a powerful force.  Most likely he will split the "Grand Alliance" vote and throw the election race to the NDA.  

Another JD(U) MLA  Sunil Pandey

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Who is also behind bars for helping a  gangster escape from judicial custody was also denied a ticket from JD(U) and will also most likely contest as an independent from behind bars.   Sunil Pandey is also from the Bhumihar caste.

Rebels of all stripes from NDA or "Grand Alliance" that were not given tickets are flocking to SP-NCP-JAP-SJP-SSP-NPP or the Secular Socialist Front especially SP.  More often than not they are from parties of the "Grand Alliance" so this front will hurt the "Grand Alliance" the most.  JAP (the Pappu Yadav party) which will go after the key Yadav vote is the biggest threat.

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What Patna looks like now with all the election campaign billboards.

BJP is trying to break into the OBC and EBC vote base of the "grand alliance" by promising that the next BJP CM in Bihar will NOT be from a upper caste.  I guess BJP if figuring that it has the upper caste vote base locked up.  Of course INC is explicitly trying to go after the upper caste vote base.  We will see how this plays out.  My hunch is the BJP gamble will work an the upper caste at this stage is so anti-Lalu that they will still go with NDA.

Pretty classic BJP tactic. Modi, of course, is also OBC.

In theory Modi belongs to Teli caste where in Bihar he would count as EBC which was carved out of OBC.  In theory EBC vote should be the deciding factor in this election. EBCs are not politically active leaders so this large voting bloc could go either way.  Traditionally they vote with the landlord they work for but that clientelist relationship is breaking down in a lot of places.

Think you're simplifying this a bit. Depends where the EBC would live, of course. Plenty of places where they would vote for CPI at some point, for example.

Yes, my statement is only in the context of Bihar.  EBC is really a designation that only exists in Bihar anyway, outside Bihar Teli caste would just be OBC.

In the first round of seats to go to polls there are 583 candidates for 49 seats.  Out of the 583 candidates  130 have serious criminal cases against them including related to murder.  Using rule of thumb that candidates facing serious criminal charges are twice as likely as those that do not, 18 out of the 49 winners should be one of these candidates facing these serious criminal cases.

Zee news poll has NDA at 147 seats 53.8% of the vote and "Grand Alliance" at 64 seats with 40.2% of the vote.  6 seats will go to others and the rest are neck-to-neck.  Again the crosstabs are problematic at it has the NDA only losing the Muslim vote 35.9 vs 57.9 and only losing the Yadav vote only 43.7 vs 50.2.  If these crosstabes hold true then I am pretty sure that NDA will win close to 200 seats and not 147 plus some tossups.  The seat share does not jive with vote share in this poll. 

Lokniti-CSDS poll has NDA ahead 42-38 in terms of vote share. 


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It is neck-to-neck in rural seats but NDA clearly ahead in urban seats. 

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Looking at the breakdown on "giving Nitish Kumar another chance" shows that it is the EBC and Mahadalit which will be decisive on who will win.  It also seems that Lalu Yadav is a major drag on the "Grand Alliance."

New IndiaTV-C-Voter opinion poll survey has similar results as the previous survey.   NDA 119 seats with 43% of the vote, "Grand Alliance" (JD(U)-RJD-INC) 116 seats with 41% of the vote, Others 5 seats.  So still neck-to-neck.

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CNN-IBN & Axis poll has Grand Alliance ahead with 46% of the vote and 137 seats while NDA has 38% of the vote and 95 seats.

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Grand alliance wil win the Muslim vote 72-10, Yadav vote 67-21 but lose the Upper Caste vote 14-73

The poll seems to indicate that BJP will win 82 seats with 29% of the vote, LJP 2 seats with 4%, HAM 8 seats with 3% of the vote, and RLSP 3 seats with 2% of the vote.  For the Grand Alliance the poll expect JD(U) to win 69 seats with 26% of the vote, RJD 48 seats with 15% of the vote and INC 20 seats with 5% of the vote.  In other words it expects BJP to do well against RJD but JD(U) will crush the BJP allies.  INC result is a surprise and could signal that despite everything the INC strategy of going after the Upper Caste vote is working in localized areas.

A CNN-IBN average of all polls BEFORE the very positive poll for Grand Alliance just now yields NDA at 43% with 118 seats and Grand Alliance at 42% and 112 seats.

Usually in these elections one front pulls a head in the end and will lead to a stamped affect so the margin of victory will end up being larger than 1%.  It is just hard to tell now which front that is.

On funny story about Lalu Yadav's sons who are contesting for the first time this election which the BJP is harping about.  It seems that the official age of Lalu's older son Tej Pratap as per the ECI is 25 while the official age of Lalu's younger son Tejaswi is 26.  RJD claims the records are wrong while BJP is crying fraud. 


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Tej Pratap


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Tejaswi Yadav

Bloomberg) -- The incumbent JDU and its partners seen leading with 122 seats in a survey by India Today-Cicero before polling begins in the state on Oct. 12.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP seen trailing with 111 seats
Other parties est. to win 10 seats: India Today-Cicero survey

The vote share for this poll is Grand Alliance 41% NDA 39% and does represent a slight improvement for Grand Alliance from Sept.

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Happier times.  Earlier this year, Lalu Yadav's daughter was married to the grandnephew of SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav who himself is a SP MP.   PM Modi was also in attendance along with the new couple as well as Lalu, Lalu's wife who herself is a former Bihar CM, and Mulayam who is the leader of SP and former UP CM.

Now Lalu and Modi are fighting to the death in the Bihar elections.  Lalu also had a falling out with SP with his own son-in-law now campaigning against his own father-in-law on behalf of the SP led front.

Times of India poll has NDA ahead in terms of vote share 42-38.  It did not project seat count.   It does have Nitish Kumar having a higher approval rate than Modi.

ABP News-Nielsen survey has NDA at 128 seats and Grand Alliance at 122 seats with others at 3 seats.

SHS who is running in 150 seats claim that in Maharashtra SHS has never indulged in any kind of anti-migrant (Bihari) movement or atrocities on migrants.  This is clearly a false statement given the track record of SHS in Maharashtra.

Shiv Sena lying! Heavens to Betsy!

Elections will be in 5 phases.  The phases are

Oct 12th   49 seats
Oct 16th   32 seats
Oct 28th   50 seats
Nov  1st    55 seats
Nov  5th    57 seats

One of the reasons for breaking elections up into phases so security forces can shift to the right areas to ensure that bandits and Maoist rebels does not disrupt the voting.

Around 33% of phase II candidates face serious criminal charges as opposed to around 23% in Phase I, although that ratio goes up to around 70% for BJP, JD(U) and RJD candidates.  The rule of thumb is that candidates with criminal background have a 2 to 2.5 times higher chance to win than a non-criminal candidate.  One of the reasons why is parties that have a realistic chance of winning tend to nominate criminal background candidates as they often can deliver local muscle power that can be added to the local party based to deliver victory.

AIMIM which had wanted to contest in 24 seats eventually scaled it back down to 6.  It also seems to have made a deal with Grand Alliance to back Grand Alliance in the rest of Bihar.  Its main goal is to make an impact in UP next year so it did not want to be seen being the reason that the anti-BJP Grand Alliance is defeated in Bihar.  This turn of events could help consolidate Muslim vote behind Grand Alliance.


New AIMIM ad
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JD(U) suspended minister Awadhesh Kushwaha after a video emerged with him taking a bribe for work on behalf of certain interests in a future JD(U) led government.  He will not be renominated by the JD(U)

Awadhesh Kushwaha
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Video link
https://youtu.be/JEK7kPaMu9A?t=75

One thing that is funny about the video is the picture of Gandhi in the background of this minister's home.  It makes it look like that Gandhi is witnessing this bribe as well in addition to the hidden camera.

57% turnout in phase I of Bihar elections.  In 2010 it was 51% turnout in the same areas and in 2014 LS election turnout was 55% in the same area.  So the turnout is more like 2014 LS election than 2010.  In theory that should be good for NDA although the high turnout could also just reflect the highly competitive nature of the election.

Phase I voting areas

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As noted before, turnout was at 57% and it seems to be concentrated in rural areas as well as women voters (women turnout was 4% higher than men turnout) as ECI tracks turnout by gender.  In theory high turnout should help NDA, but rural areas and women voters are where Grand Alliance are stronger so the trend so far seems to be a wash between the two sides.

Phase II voting is tomorrow.  They will cover

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After phase I, both Grand Alliances and NDA claimed victory.  But it seems that internal sources from NDA shows that NDA is nervous based on feedback that phase I did not work in their favor, espcially from the BJP allies.  Right after phase I was over Modi has canceled several rallies as well as BJP pulling some billboards with Modi on it and replaced with billboard with various local BJP leaders.  The word is that fearing defeat the BJP wanted to try to separate Modi from the Bihar election. 

It seems that the political chatter gives grand alliance an edge over NDA after first two rounds the bookies still has NDA winning by 7% and 50 seats over Grand Alliance.  Of course the bookies were wrong about Delhi ealier this year and lost a bundle.

Third phase coming up in a week  In this round 68% RJD, 62% BJP and 56% JD(U) candidates face criminal charges.  

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It seems that even within the NDA camp there is chatter that admits the first two phases did not go well.  The NDA was hoping that the OBC vote bank of JD(U) and RJD splinters due to internal rivalries but various statements by the RSS indicating that they back scrapping reservations for OBC and Dalits seems to have consolidated OBC vote behind Grand Alliance.  Also the NDA hope was that the Dalit vote breaks for NDA but it seems the rural Dalits of phase 1 and phase 2 broke for Grand Alliance.  Phase 5 is heavy with Muslims which NDA concedes will go for Grand Alliance since AIMIM does not seem to have much impact.  So it will be up the more urban Phase 3 and Phase 4 for the NDA to try to catch-up.  The NDA is hoping that at least urban Dalits would break for NDA which seems reasonable except now there is an incident in BJP ruled Harayana where two Dalit children were murdered when the Dalit house was set on fire from a upper caste men who had a conflict with this Dalit famliy which was related to Dalit-Upper Caste rivalries in that village.  This incident is getting national attention in the media. This could not have come at a worse time for NDA as social composition of their election alliance was a Upper Caste-Dalit combination.  Urban Dalits will hear about this news and might react in the way they vote.  

http://m.timesofindia.com/elections/bihar-elections-2015/news/Bihar-polls-Grand-Alliance-displaces-NDA-in-satta-race-punters-give-Nitish-Lalu-127-129-seats-NDA-110/articleshow/49604867.cms

NDA recovered some ground after third phase. Before the first two phases the bookies had NDA at around 150 seats.   After the first two rounds thw bookies had NDA at around 90 seats.  Now the bookies has NDA at around 110 seats which means NDA is still behind but not by that much. 

NDTV analysis of 2014 election results on a booth by booth basis to formulate factors are for NDA and factors which are for Grand Alliance. 

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Right before phase 5 are to begin the BJP came out with an ad on cow protection with a girl hugging a cow.  It called for defending the cow from insults such as alleged discussions of eating beaf.

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5th and final phase is in progress.  This phase contain regions dominated by Muslims and Yadavs and should give the Grand Alliance a large edge over NDA.   Exit polls should be available once voting ends in this phase.

The Indian equity market clearly prefers for NDA to win as that would perhaps give NDA at the central government the momentum to push for more economic reforms.   The markets looks like has priced in the possibility of NDA defeat where as a few months ago the markets were certain that NDA would win.  NDA win should mean Indian market goes up 1%-2% and NDA defeat means markets fall 1%-2%.

Voting ends.  News projects NDA 126 seats Grand Alliance 110 seats

C voter has Grand Alliance at 122 seats and NDA at 111 seats

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India.com has Grand Alliance at 125 NDA at 105

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India Today has NDA 120 Grand Alliance 117

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News Nation has Grand Alliance 122 NDA 117

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Now NewsX projects Grand Alliance 135 NDA 95.  Not sure what is going on here

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ABP exit poll for the first 3 phases but has Granad Alliance 78 NDA 51. 

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ABP 4th phase has NDA 33 Grand Alliance 20
ABP 5th phase has Grand Alliance 32 NDA 24

ABP total has Grand Alliance 130 NDA 108

Average of 6 exit polls has Grand Alliance 125 NDA 109.  I rather be Grand Alliance than NDA right now especially when the remaining 9 seats are going to be a combo of NCP MIM Left Front SP etc etc.  All of whom are much more likely to do a deal with Grand Alliance than NDA.

NDTV poll of polls came up with similar numbers as my.  125 vs 110 in favor of Grand Alliance.

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Today's Chanakya who was very accurate in 2014 LS elections, especially in UP, came out with numbers very different from others.   NDA 155 Grand Alliance 83.  

This exit poll also asked about current government performance which was mostly poor and if there is need for change of government which was 51% yes.  If so then NDA will win a majority.   it just goes against CW that Nitish Kumar is still viewed positively.

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I have never seen an exit poll situation where most exit polls have a close result with a slight advantage for one side but one exit poll has a landslide for another.  Will be interesting to see the real result.  My gut feeling is that if the trend is indeed a small vote share advantage for Grand Alliance which is what most exit polls are showing.  Then the seat count for Grand Alliance is undercounted.  This is because the NDA has large vote share leads in the urban seats which is about 10% of seats.  But for the overall vote share lead for Grand Alliance to hold the lead must be somewhat higher in the rural seats which is the remaining 90%  This small extra advantage will deliver a lot of seats to Grand Alliance in marginal rural areas.

Today's Chanakya exit poll is interesting in terms of vote share  They have NDA 46% (+/-3%) Grand Alliance 39% (+/-3%).  So it is NDA 49%-43% Grand Alliance 42%-36%.  Newsx had Grand Alliance 42% (+/-2.5%) NDA 39% (+/-2.5%).  So it is Grand Alliance 44.5%-39.5% and NDA 41.5%-36.5%.  So in terms of NDA vote share one of the two exit polls will be WAY OFF.
 

NDTV exit poll has NDA 125 Grand Alliance 110

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A Lokniti-CSDS post election poll (not exit poll) has Grand Alliance getting a greater vote share relative to before the election.  It went from losing to NDA 38%-42% to winning 42%-38%.

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CNN-IBN had planned to release an exit poll in its post election program.  It has commissioned  Axis APM to conduct this exit poll.  But when the results of this exit poll, the results were so out of line with every other exit poll CNN-IBN decided to not present it on its TV program.  The  Axis APM poll had

Grand Alliance 176 NDA 62 with the INC itself getting 27 seats out of the 40 it was contesting.   It also had Grand Alliance with 48% of the vote versus NDA 36%.   CNN-IBN asked for the raw data from Axis APM and was rejected.   This poll is the mirror image of the Today's Chanakya.

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This poll is bold in that it came out with exact predictions for every seat.  It will be interesting to see how this pans out seat-by-seat.

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It seems that looking at all the firm that did a pre-poll survey AND an exit poll, the exit poll is always more pro-Grand Alliance that the pre-poll survey.  It seems to me that the momentum is on the side of the Grand Alliance and most likely most exit polls are underestimating such a momentum.    Today's Chanakya who was the most accurate in 2014 LS calls for a NDA landslide just like Axis APM who was the most accurate in the Delhi 2015 Assembly elections calls for a Grand Alliance landslide.  I will just consider both canceling each other out.  If I had to guess I will call for a signification Grand Alliance victory.  Something like

Grand Alliance     145       45%
NDA                      80       40%

Counting begins.

NDA                  5
Grand Alliance   4

NDA                  9
Grand Alliance   6

NDA                 13
Grand Alliance    8

NDA                  15
Grand Alliance   10

NDA                  16
Grand Alliance   11

NDA                  27
Grand Alliance   13

Momentum going with NDA.  Lots of gains for BJP allies.

NDA                  36
Grand Alliance   18

NDA                  46
Grand Alliance   23
Others                1

NDA                  55
Grand Alliance   26
Others                2

NDA clearly have upper hand and will most likely win.  Issue now is by how much.

NDA                  58
Grand Alliance   32
Others                2

NDA                  65
Grand Alliance   34
Others                3

NDA                  72
Grand Alliance   37
Others                4

NDA                  76
Grand Alliance   44
Others                4

NDA                  78
Grand Alliance   47
Others                4

NDA                  82
Grand Alliance   49
Others                4

NDA momentum still there but seems to be slowing down.  This might be closer than these numbers suggest. 

NDA                  84
Grand Alliance   52
Others                5

NDA                  85
Grand Alliance   55
Others                5

NDA                  88
Grand Alliance   59
Others                5

NDA                  90
Grand Alliance   60
Others                5

NDA                  90
Grand Alliance   63
Others                4

NDA                102
Grand Alliance   66
Others                4

NDA                104
Grand Alliance   71
Others                4

Grand Alliance coming back.  This might become neck-to-neck.

NDA                110
Grand Alliance   81
Others                5

where are these from? I see very different results.

Yeah, it looks like a Grand alliance win. And rightly so, as Nitish Kumar has been a very competent CM. And the BJP ran a very backwards, nonsense Hindutva based campaign here. They had nothing to offer.

Different TV channesl were using different sets of stringer services for info.  I think they have all converged by now.    I always use the NDTV one

Grand Alliance       157
NDA                        76
Others                    10

Vote share so far seems to be

Grand Alliance             40.9%
NDA                            35.1%

Grand Alliance       178
NDA                        60
Others                      5


Vote share seems to be

Grand Alliance     41.8%
NDA                    34.3%   

Outside the 2 alliances the only other winners seems to be independents and CPI(ML)(L)

It seems earlier in the day when various TV channels had contradictory trends, the BJP thought they won and had order a massive amount of candies to distribute to celebrate.  NDTV even called the election for NDA.  Of course the celebrations at BJP headquarters went silent when the trend went against them and the candies unused.

Grand Alliance       177
NDA                        61
Others                      5


Vote share seems to be

Grand Alliance     41.9%
NDA                    34.2%   

Since NOTA has not been normalized out, one has to add about 1% to both numbers to get the true vote share.

Looks like both CNN-IBN and NDTV goofed.  CNN-IBN actually commissioned an exit poll that had the right results but refused to show it since it did not believe the Grand Alliance landslide projections.  NDTV on vote count morning had used a news stringer service which had gave it a pro-NDA trends even as it was too early and projected a NDA victory which it later had to retract.  The NDTV projection seems especially foolish now given the landslide defeat of NDA.

Vote share for Left Front (CPI-CPI(ML)-CPM-SUCI-RSP-FBL) is around 3.4%  Vote share for Third Front (SP-NCP-JKAM-SJP-SSP-NPP) is around 3.1%.  BSP is at around 2.0%.  Independents got 9.4% of the vote which is surprising to me.

The winner of the election is Lalu Yadav, who was key to this stunning comeback.  RJD won more votes and seats than JD(U) even though it was considered to have a tougher set of seats to run in. 

HAM most likely will only win 1 seats, that of Jitan Ram Manjhi.  Manjhi ran in two seats and won in one of them.  Rest of HAM bit the dust.

Axis APM now looks like genius.  

BTW, my projection


Was pretty good and pretty much beat every other project other than Axis APM.  And even in vote share I managed to beat Axis APM.

Grand Alliance       177
NDA                        60
Others                      6  (4 independents, 2 CPI(ML)(L))

It is interesting that the NDA vote share in Bihar will be around 35% which pretty much matches NDA vote share in 2014  Jharkhand Assembly when NDA (BJP+AJSU) won 35.5% of the vote and won a majority of seats.  The difference is the anti-NDA bloc managed to fuse in Bihar whereas in  Jharkhand the anti-NDA vote was split 3 ways between JMM, (JVM+AITC) and (INC+RJD+JD(U)).  Same for Haryana  2014 Assembly election where BJP won 33.3% of the vote and won a majority due to the split of the non-NDA vote between INC and (INLD+SAD).

Looks like the NDA is settling into the 35% front.  It wins around 35% of the vote in places where it is relevant no matter what and weather it wins or loses is a function of how well the anti-NDA vote is consolidated.  Very similar to INC in the 1950s-1980s where it as the 42% party.

SHS whose relationship with BJP has been spiraling downward in Maharashtra to the point where a break in the alliance most likely is coming soon could not contain is glee at these results.  SHS showered praise on the Grand Alliance and ecstatically celebrated the defeat of the NDA.  The idea here is that with BJP and Modi weakened then SHS can get even more aggressive with the BJP in Maharashtra to demand its pound of flesh.

Grand Alliance       177  (80 RJD, 71 JD(U), 26 INC)
NDA                        60  (53 BJP, 4 LJP 2 RLSP, 1 HAM)
Others                      6  (4 independents, 2 CPI(ML)(L))

Grand Alliance       178  (80 RJD, 71 JD(U), 27 INC)
NDA                        59  (53 BJP, 3 LJP 2 RLSP, 1 HAM)
Others                      6  (4 independents, 2 CPI(ML)(L))

INC actually did very well as it will most likely win 27 out of 41 seats.  Most of the 41 seats it contesting it had to take on the NDA in areas with Upper Caste strength.  INC managed to win a lot of these seats with Upper Caste candidates which pulled in some Upper Caste votes plus OBC/Muslim consolidation against NDA.

One of the reasons why CNN-IBN refused to air Axis APM exit poll was that  Axis APM projected INC to win 27 seats which CNN-IBN found to be totally impossible.  But INC is now on target to win exactly 27 seats as an egg in the face of CNN-IBN.

Grand Alliance       178  (80 RJD, 71 JD(U), 27 INC)
NDA                        58  (53 BJP, 2 LJP 2 RLSP, 1 HAM)
Others                      7  (4 independents, 3 CPI(ML)(L))

Vote share seems to be

Grand Alliance     41.9%
NDA                    34.1%   

Good. The BJP must be defeated everywhere they can be.

NDTV getting it wrong in the early phases of the vote count.
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As did India Today
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At the same time CNN-IBN was much closer to the mark
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and then
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Premature celebrations at BJP headquarters when various TV channels projected NDA victory.

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It seems other than issues with various news stringers at the vote count, another reason why the the initial trends were wrong has to do with postal votes.  Postal votes are counted first and it seems in retrospect the postal votes when very heavy in favor of NDA.  That they were counted first gave a false impression that NDA was ahead when in fact it was not. 

Well this is pleasing :)

This is the first gain for the InC in Bihar since 1985, from what I can find.

I'm guessing the BJP have been hurt from all these cow stories?

Correct on first count.  First net gain in terms of seats for INC in Bihar since 1985. 
I think what did BJP in was a lack of Hindu consolidation in fact of clear OBC Muslim consolidation.   BJP's allies did very poorly.  They were suppose to bring in the OBC and Dalit votes and they clearly failed.   

All seats called
                            
                           Contested          Won          Vote Share
Grand Alliance           243             178              41.9%
   RJD                        101               80              18.4%  
   JD(U)                     101               71              16.8%
   INC                          41               27                6.7%

NDA                          243             58               34.1%
   BJP                        157              53               24.4%
   LJP                          42               2                  4.8%
   RLSP                       23               2                  2.6%
   HAM                        21               1                  2.3%

Left Front                                      3                 3.5%
   CPI(ML)(L)              98                3                 1.5%
   CPI                         98                0                 1.4%
   CPM                        43                0                 0.6%

Third Front                                    0                  2.9%
   SP                         135               0                  1.0%
   JAP                        109               0                  1.4%
   NCP                        41                0                  0.5%

BSP                          228               0                  2.1%
SHS                            73               0                  0.6%
Independent                                  4                  9.4%

Note some of these numbers are too low since they are not normalized by the 2.5% NOTA vote.

Lalu and Nitish celebrates at Lalu's home.

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NDTV came out with a election result chart based on candidates with criminal background.  It seems Grand Alliance and NDA nominated about the same number of candidates with criminal background.  Those with criminal background won at the same rate as the alliance they belong to won at.

Alliance        Candidates   Winners   Strike Rate
Grand Alliance    142              99            69.72
NDA                   139              37            26.62
Others               754                6              0.80

NDTV will take a while to get over this reporting disaster.

As to why all the surveys and exit polls were way off  Axis APM, there are several theories. 

Famous political analyst Yorendra Yadav (who used to be part of famous 2015 AAP Delhi Assembly landslide against BJP until he was expelled) insisted the day before counting of votes that his reading of exit polls told him that Grand Alliance was headed to a comfortable victory with a seat count somewhat over 130 seats (which was the most pro-Grand Alliance exit poll other than  Axis APM.)  Yadav's argument was that exit polls in Bihar tend to under estimate support for the "OBC party", which is Grand Alliance in this case, by 2%-4%.  So if exit polls has Grand Alliance and NDA neck-to-neck then Grand Alliance should win by a conformable margin.     

I made a similar projection of a Grand Alliance victory of 140 seats but more based on the momentum these exit polls and survey had for Grand Alliance relative to similar surveys before the voting started.  My rule of thumb is that if you see such momentum in multiple surveys then most likely is is underestimated.   So if exit polls had the two sides neck-to-neck then it must be a solid victory for Grand Alliance.

It seems what took place was both these factors at the same time which pushed the Grand Alliance to an even large victory than the 140-150 seat variety. 

Yep.  Their exit polls were off and the report on counting was a disaster.  I also think CNN-IBN did well by being the main English language outlet that first called the election for Grand Alliance and had in the end more accurate trends.  Somehow they must have used a different set of news stringers then that was used by NDTV.  What could have made CNN-IBN coverage perfect is if they actually went through with showing the shocking and eventually dead on exit poll of Axis APM instead of burying it.

BJP at 24.4% is +7.9% since 2010.
It is also the best results ever for the party in regional elections in Bihar.
1990 11.6%
1995 13.0%
2000 14.6%
2005 Feb. 11.0%
2005 Oct. 15.7%
2010 16.5%
2015 24.4%

What percentage did the Grand Alliance lose compared to the combined JD(U) and RJD last time?

RJD 18.4% in 2015 (-0,4). 18,8% in 2010, 23,5% in oct. 2005
JD(U)  16.8% in 2015 (-5,8). 22,6% in 2010, 20,5% in oct. 2005
INC 6.7% in 2015 (-1,7). 8,4% in 2010, 6,1% in oct. 2005

So who were all these new BJP supporters voting for last time?

Since BJP contested 102 seats in 2010 and contested 157 seats this time, BJP's greater vote share is partially explained by the BJP Upper Caste vote base now can get to vote for BJP in more seats.  BJP also gained in the Youth vote, the Dalit vote, and the EBC vote.  The latter two are more about the BJP is now THE anti-RJD party (Yadav and Muslim) so it will pick up the vote of the social base that is opposed to the RJD social base.

It is also instructive to see how the each party fared against each other as that might give us an idea on how the Grand Alliance won.

INC vs BJP                  INC wins 19-9
INC vs BJP allies          INC wins  8-3

JD(U) vs BJP               JD(U) wins 29-25
JD(U)U vs BJP allies    JD(U) wins 42-2

RJD vs BJP                 RJD wins 54-19
RJD vs BJP allies         RJD wins 26-0

INC which tended to run Upper Caste candidates in an attempt to retake some of the Upper Caste vote against BJP seems successful as the JD(U) and RJD seems to be able to transfer their OBC vote to INC against the "Upper Caste" BJP.  Given how weak BJP allies (LJP RLSP HAM) performed, INC did not do as well in a relative sense against BJP allies since BJP allies tend to project an image of OBC/Dalit social base.

JD(U) ran as an ally of BJP in 2010 and because of the incumbent affect did not end up running against BJP as much.  Where it did, BJP did fairly well relative to the overall results.  This seems to be because in 2010 JD(U) was THE anti-RJD (Yadav) party and now that anti-RJD vote will go to BJP.  RJD and INC seems less effective at transferring their base to JD(U) these districts.  JD(U) destroyed the BJP allies since they (LJP HAM RLSP) have done business with RJD in the past so it is hard to project themselves as THE anti-RJD party and at the same time the BJP base did not transfer over completely over to them.

RJD did very well against BJP.  In 2010 the BJP got the anti-RJD vote anyway so its not going gain more this time as being THE anti-RJD party.  But the RJD was able to get some transfer of support from JD(U) and as a result soundly defeated BJP.  RJD ran a campaign of anti-BJP polarization to consolidate the anti-Upper Caste vote.  It seems to have worked.   In RJD versus BJP allies the social bases of the two sides seems to overlap and RJD won since the Grand Alliance coalition is just bigger than NDA.   

Overall this election is an election of negatives.  It became how effective the NDA candidate is at being THE anti-RJD party and how effective the Grand Alliance candidate is at either co-opting the BJP Upper Caste base OR being the anti-Upper Caste candidate by pulling in the Dalit and EBC vote.

Once we accepted that the social bases of RJD JD(U) and INC did seems to meld well this election, from a pure vote share point of view NDA did not do that badly relative to they impressive performance of LS 2014. 

The key thing to realize is that in LS elections the vote for independents are a lot smaller than in Assembly elections.  The main reason is since the district sizes for an LS election district is much larger than in an Assembly election from a game theory point of view, it is a lot more likely for an independent candidate (often a rebel from one of the larger parties) to have a chance of winning ergo a lot more of them contest and drive up the vote share for independents.  The best way to deal with this is to normalize the vote share of election blocs to the non-independent vote. 

In LS 2014, NDA (BJP+LJP+RLSP) won 39.5% of the vote when independents won 4.3% of the vote.  This means NDA won 41.3% of the non-independent vote in LS 2014.  Likewise, UPA (RJD+INC+INC) and Third Front (JD(U)+CPI) won 30.2% and 17.2% of the vote respectively in LS 2014.  We now must take into account that in 2015 Assembly election NCP and CPI did not contest as part of Grand Alliance.  A good way to measure NCP and CPI natural support rate is to look at 2010 Assembly election results where NCP and CPI both ran by itself and won 1.8% and 1.7% of the vote respectively.  So the Grand Alliance parties in 2014 LS won (30.2%+17.2%-1.8%-1.7%) = 44% of the vote or 46% of the non-independent vote.

In 2015 Assembly election NDA (BJP+LJP+RLSP+HAM) won roughly 35.1% of the vote once we normalize for NOTA.  Independents won around 9.6% of the vote.  So NDA won around 38.8% of the non-independent vote.  Grand Alliance won around 43% of the vote which translates to around 47.6% of the non-independent vote.

So from 2014 LS to 2015 Assembly the NDA went down by 2.5% and Grand Alliance went up by 1.6% of the vote.  We do have HAM defecting from JD(U) to NDA which might mean around 1%-2% of the vote.  Once we take that into account the NDA lost around 3.5%-4.5% of the vote from the Modi peak.  While this is significant this is much higher than anything NDA has accomplished before SAP/JD(U) joined NDA back in the 1990s.  BJP has clearly established itself a a significant power in Bihar.  This is bad news for INC as the chances of the INC recovering its Upper Caste based is fairly low and unless there is another reshuffle of the political deck INC will continue to a second rate political party in Bihar as a junior ally of JD(U) and/or RJD.

One of the reasons aside from momentum the NDA needed to win in Bihar is the issue of the Upper House.  Currently NDA has 64 out of 245 seats.  It could in theory try to rope in AIADMK with 11 seats and maybe BJD with 6 seats.  But even then it is far from a majority.  Had the NDA won a 3/4 majority in Bihar that over time will be able to help NDA slowly gain a plurality in the Rajya Sabha.  Just to look at the outlook for NDA improvement in Rajya Sabha for 2016 one can look at all the seats in Rajya Sabha up for re-election between now and end of 2016.

Nominated - 7 (here since the President is from the INC the 7 that will replace the 7 up for reelection are no more likely to back the NDA agenda.)

AP - 4 (2 INC, 1 BJP, 1 TDP) -> (2 TDP, 2 YSRCP).  Net gain of 0 for NDA.
Assam - 2 (2 INC) -> (1 INC 1 BJP) Assuming narrow BJP narrow win for 2016 Assam Assembly election.  Net gain of 1 for NDA.
Bihar 5 (5 JD(U)) -> (2 JD(U), 1 INC, 1 RJD, 1 BJP).  Net gain of 1 for NDA.
Chhattisgarh 2 (1 BJP, 1 INC) -> (1 BJP, 1 INC). Net gain of 0 for NDA.
Haryana 1 (1 BJP) -> (1 BJP).  Net gain of 0 for NDA.
Jharkhand  1 (1 INC) -> (1 BJP). Net gain of 1 for NDA.
Karnataka 4 (1 Ind, 1 INC, 2 BJP) -> (2 INC, 1 JD(S), 1 BJP).  Net loss of 1 for NDA.  Really net loss of 2 since the Ind is pro-BJP but I will still count it as net loss of 1.
Kerala 3 (2 CPM, 1 INC) -> (1 INC, 2 CPM). Assuming narrow LDF win in 2016 Kerela Assembly elections.  Net gain of 0 for NDA.
Madhya Pradesh 3 (2 BJP, 1 INC) -> (2 BJP, 1 INC).  Net gain of 0 for NDA.
Maharashtra 6 (2 INC, 2 NCP, 1 SHS, 1 BJP) -> (2 BJP, 2 SHS, 1 INC, 1 NCP).  Net gain of 2 for NDA.
Nagaland 1 (1 NPF) -> (1 NPF).  Net gain of 0 for NDA.
Odisha 3 (2 BJD, 1 IND) -> (3 BJD).  Net gain of 0 for NDA.
Punjab 7 (3 SAD, 1 BJP, 3 INC) ->  (3 SAD, 1 BJP, 3 INC). Net gain of 0 for NDA.
Rajasthan 4 (2 INC, 2 BJP) -> (4 BJP).  Net gain of 2 for NDA.
Tamil Nadu 6 (3 AIADMK, 2 DMK, 1 INC) -> (3 AIADMK, 1 DMDK, 2 DMK). Assuming close race in 2016 TN Assembly election with narrow win for AIADMK.  Net gain of 0 for NDA.
Telangana 2 (1 TDP, 1 INC) -> (1 TRS, 1 INC).  Net loss of 1 for NDA.
Tripura  1 (1 CPM) -> (1 CPM). Net gain of 0 for NDA.
UP 11 (6 BSP, 3 SP, 1 INC, 1 BJP) -> (6 SP, 3 BSP, 1 INC, 1 BJP). Net gain of 0 for NDA.
Uttarakhand 1 (1 BJP) -> (1 INC).  Net loss of 1 for NDA.

So NDA will have gain of 7 and loss of 3 for a net gain of 4 seats by the end of 2016.  The 2 YSRSP and 1 DMDK could perhaps be added to the parties that could be pro-NDA although TDP cannot be with YSRCP and AIADMK cannot be with DMDK.  There is also the issue of SHS perhaps defecting from NDA.  

So NDA could look forward to having 68 Rajya Sabha seats by end of 2016.  Still not enough to push through its agenda without working out deals with UPA and/or parties like SP, BSP, AITC, JD(U), NCP etc etc which currently does not support its agenda.

Looking at the decline of the NDA vote relative to the LS performance gave me the idea to compare this drop-off relative to other Assembly elections at the same time or after the 2014 LS NDA landslide victory.  I am going to use the comparison of share of non-independent vote to get an apples-to-apples comparison to take into account that Assembly elections tend to have higher independents vote share.   As I look at the numbers I will also take into account the concept that if Party A and Party B contest separately their combined vote share will be higher than if Party A and Party B contest as an alliance.

The first 3 assembly elections took place on the same day as the LS election.  The numbers are in terms of non-independent vote share

Orissa.            2014 LS NDA 22.3%  2014 Assembly 19.2%  Drop off around 3%
AP                  2014 LS NDA 48.4%  2014 Assembly 48%.  Pretty much no drop-off.
Telengana       2014 LS NDA 23.6%  2014 Assembly 22.9%.  Pretty much no drop-off.

The fact that drop-off is low makes sense since the election took place the same day.  It seems that in Orissa the local BJP organization is weaker but the Modi brand is strong so even though the election is the same day.



Then we had a couple of elections in Oct 2014.

Maharastra    2014 LS NDA 53.5%.  2014 Assembly 31% (BJP+) + 20.5% (SHS+) = 51.5%
Haryana        2014 LS NDA 41.6%   2014 Assembly 37.2% (BJP+) + 4% (HJC) = 41.2%

Here in both cases the NDA broke up from the LS elections with BJP and SHS separating in Maharashtra while BJP and HJC breaking up in Haryana.  So we should take into account the split affect that the sum of the vote shares of the two NDA blocs overestimate the real vote share.  In Maharashtra this affect is mitigated by the split of INC and NCP.  So taking that into account it seems the drop-off is around 2% for this round.



Then we have a couple of elections in Dec 2014

J&K              2014 LS NDA 34.8%                             2014 Assembly 24.9%
Jharkhand    2014 LS NDA BJP 42.1% AJSU 3.9%     2014 Assembly 38.1%

In Jharkhand in the 2014 LS elections BJP and AJSU ran separately but AJSU joined NDA by the time of assembly elections.  J&K BJP local organization is weaker so there was a drop-off of almost 10%.  This drop-off is exaggerated a the BJP usually runs much stronger in LS elections in J&K relative to assembly elections.  It historically pulls in numbers like the 25%-35% range of  the non-independent vote in LS elections while in assembly elections it usually runs in the 12%-15% range of the non-independent vote.   In Jharkhand the drop-off is in theory 8% but using the split factor it is more like 6%.   In addition the 2014 LS the anti-NDA blocs were INC-JMM and JVM while in the Assembly INC and JMM also split so NDA faced 3 opposition blocs.  While this helped NDA win seats it acted to push its vote share down.    One way or another by Dec 2014 one can see the Modi factor wearing off quickly.



Then we have the 2 2015 Assembly elections

Delhi          2014 LS NDA 48.1%               2015 Assembly 33%
Bihar          2014 LS NDA 41.3%               2015 Assembly 37.7%

Here the drop-off in Delhi was a massive 15%.  But this is an exaggeration of the NDA drop-off.  BJP always seems to do much better in LS elections in terms of non-independent vote share in Delhi just like J&K.  In 1996 1998 1996 LS elections BJP would get above 50% of the non-independent vote even as in Assembly elections of 1998 2003 the BJP would get around high 30% in non-independent vote.     In Bihar it was more like 3.5% which most likely is an underestimation since we have the HAM defection factor which should had added to the NDA vote share plus the fusion of the Grand Alliance which should have reduced the overall Grand Alliance vote share to the benefit of NDA.  it should be more like 5%.

What one can derive from this is the NDA drop-off from 2014 LS results is increasing over time.  The amount of drop-off is most likely around 5% if not greater if there is a strong anti-NDA front facing NDA.

  

Thanks for the great analysis jaichind.

Hopefully the election results in Bihar shouldn't have too much of an impact on PM Modi's efforts to structurally reform and modernize India's economy:

BJP’s defeat in Bihar elections unlikely to have economic implications: Fitch (http://www.financialexpress.com/article/economy/bjps-defeat-in-bihar-elections-unlikely-to-have-economic-implications-fitch/163334/)

By: PTI | New Delhi | November 9, 2015 12:42 PM

Looking back, one reason for the NDA defeat is they goofed up the communal polarization card.  The lesson from 2014 LS seems to be, yes polarization by community does work but it is the second mover advantage.  In 2014 the NDA sent subtle signals of Hindu consolidations which provoked UPA into active polarization of minorities to vote UPA.  It did not work and it merely provoked a silent Hindu counter-polarization against UPA.  

So to play the communal card one must use jujitsu which is to use the opponents energy against themselves.    The BJP seems to forgot this lesson or perhaps felt they had no choice since they were behind anyway.  What the BJP did it to run against "Jungle Raj" of Lalu Yadav which everyone can read as anti-Yadav consolation by EBC and Dalits.  Also BJP came out with ads like

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talking about cow protection which is an explicit attempt at Hindu consolidation.  When you have to run ads with a girl hugging a cow you know you must be in trouble.  It did not work as the Dalit and EBC vote were split and it merely provoked a silent Muslim and Yadav consolidation in favor of Grand Alliance.  

In the aftermath of the NDA landslide in 2014 I wrote


It seems they did do some of the things I mentioned.  In fact I explicitly referred to what was necessary in Bihar as a "grand alliance."   The news phase is what sort of alliances can be formed in WB TN and Assam for next year.

In WB the slope of the BJP seems to be going downward.  In fact at this stage it will either be AITC + INC vs BJP vs Left Front or Left Front + INC vs AITC vs BJP.  I guess it can be also a 4 way battle.  There are two factions in INC. One faction says that BJP is finished in WB anyway so there should be a grand alliance of INC and Left Front to take on AITC.  Another factions says it is key to keep AITC away from BJP so the best way is to be a junior partner of AITC.  Besides AITC can be helpful in places like Assam.  Both AITC and Left Front are also trying to get JD(U) and RJD on their side by trying to get the Nitish Kumar magic to rub off on themselves.  it seems that unless somehow the BJP can form an alliance with AITC which seems unlikley given the bad blood between AITC and Modi the NDA will be nowhere next year in WB Assembly elections.

In Assam the state is turning into a J&K.  Lower Assam is like Kashmir.  Parts of Lower Assam is already Muslim majority and the Muslim percentage of the population continues to surge.  Upper Assam is like Jannu where it is still dominated by Assamese Hindus with some Muslim population.  The Bodo regions are dominated by tribal which are like the Tibetian Buddhist region of Lakdh in J&K.  In Lower Assam it is mostly AUDF vs INC with BJP having a chance if Hindu AGP voters tactically vote for BJP.  In Upper Assam it is BJP vs INC vs AGP with an advantage for BJP IF AGP voters votes tactically for BJP  In Bodoland it is BPF vs various anti-BPF forces.  Both BPF  and these anti-BPF forces can and could align with BJP or INC or even AGP.  This time around it seems that BPF might go with BJP but this is not locked down yet.  In theory INC wants tactical alliances with AUDF in Upper Assam to beat back BJP but AUDF will seek concessions in Lower Assam which INC might not want to give.  The anti-BJP grand alliance the INC wants to form might be with AITC or AUDF or even AGP if AGP is desperate to avoid being wiped out by BJP as the Hindu Assamese party.  The key to if BJP can repeat its amazing 2014 LS performance in LS election is if it still can get the AGP vote bloc to vote for BJP as THE anti-INC party.  If AGP does well then BJP is sunk.  If AUDF makes a real investment in Upper Assam it could also sink INC.  The result will depend on these two factors.

Once again, very informative, thanks. What's expected to happen in Kerala?

Yes.  I am about to write about TN and Kerela.  Most likely I will create a new thread on 2016 India Assembly elections since all of them will be in the Spring.

In TN, it is the land of ever shifting alliances.  In 2014 it was AIADMK vs DMK + VCK + PT +MMK + IUML vs BJP + DMDK + MDMK + PMK vs INC.  CPI and CPM were suppose to join AIADMK but rejected the AIADMK "lousy" deal of 1 seat each.  A good part of the anti-AIADMK vote share went to the NDA while INC vote share split out from DMK front lead to a AIADMK landslide.  The relationship AIADMK and the Left Front has with BJP has always been weird.  Jayalalitha seems to have this ability to be a natural partner of both BJP and Left Front.  Neither seems to mind doing deals with AIADMK know that tomorrow  AIADMK might do a deal with the other.   Anyway, soon after the elections INC started to fall apart. G K Vasan whose father lead a split from INC creating TMC only to rejoin it a few years later recreated the TMC and pretty much taking what is left of the INC vote base with it.  Things are so bad in INC in TN that INC high command seems happy there is another internal rebellion brewing in the TN INC because at least it puts the INC in news headlines in TN.  Things are so bad for the NDA front as also as it pretty much fell apart after the elections.  DMDK seems to want to create a front of its own with its leader Vijayakanth  as the CM candidate and it would join ally with BJP if the BJP accepted that which the BJP will not.  Same thing for PMK where it is creating a separate front  and insist that PMK leader Ramadoss must be the CM candidate.  MDMK VCK CPI and CPM formed a front called People’s Welfare Front (PWF) which refused to back DMK but seems open with trying to get DMDK to join it.  All this leaves BJP nowhere and most likely will try to join up with AIADMK who will turn BJP down based on the fact that BJP has nothing to offer and only bring anti-BJP vote against AIADMK.    All these developments is fairly negative for DMK as the only way the DMK can take on AIADMK is to build a broad anti-AIADMK alliance which seems unlikely.  It is not clear where TMC will go but that is the only viable party for DMK to ally with.  On current trends AIADMK will break the TN assembly record of never re-election the incumbent party after 1984.  In the TN Assembly elections of 1989 1991 1996 2001 2006 and 2011 the incumbent party always loses.  The only ways AIADMK could be beaten is if DMK TMC INC DMDK MDMK and PMK plus various minor parties gang up on AIADMK.  Does not seem that likely despite all talks by all non-AIADMK parties to form a grand alliance.

As for Kerela the main battle will be between the INC led UDF versus the CPM LDF.  Christians and Muslims tend to vote UDF while Hindus tend to vote LDF.  The BJP has been trying to break in for years but the BJP vote base which is at least 10% if not greater tends to, at the end vote tactically for UDF to try to beat LDF.  The BJP has been on the rise here and could gain vote share but is unlikely gain that much in terms of seats.  Going by history it seems that the ruling UDF is doomed to defeat.  Every since 1977 when various on again and off again calibration between INC and CPI ceased the structure of  UDF vs LDF began every election would alternate between UDF and LDF.  UDF won in 1977 1982 1991 2001 and 2011 while LDF won in 1980 1987 1996 and 2006.  So 2016 will most likely be LDF.  The rise of the BJP on the long run should worry LDF more since BJP will eat into the Hindu base of LDF.   

So how much did the BJP's call for the reservation system for lower caste people to be revised hurt them? Just by sheer numbers lower caste folks dominate the electorate, and the BJP sounding like an upper-caste party must have hurt them significantly.

It was not really BJP but a RSS leader that called for reviewing reservation system for OBCs.  Once can never know how much it hurt but it did provoke the BJP to try to counteract it by running against Yadavs (Jungle Raj) to try to hang on to the non-Yadav OBC and EBC vote.  This really backfired as the BJP plan was to capture the Yadav vote by running a bunch of Yadav candidates and hoping the JAP could split the Yadav vote.  Instead the Yadav vote which had considered voting for BJP given their hostility toward JD(U) voted en bloc for Grand Alliance.  The other game changer was a BJP leader and minister VK Singh compared the two Dalit children burned alive in Haryana in a caste war conflict to "dogs."  Again, one cannot be sure how much this hurt the NDA but this sent the BJP into an anti-Muslim mobilization mode to try to counteract it.  It did not work and merely provoked a massive Muslim consolidation in favor of Grand Alliance.

Glad the government got the message to shed its cultural hardline agenda and get cracking on economic reforms, which it should have been doing from the get-go:

Two Days After Bihar Setback, Modi Government Unleashes Big Bang FDI Reforms (http://profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/article-two-days-after-bihar-setback-modi-government-unleashes-big-bang-fdi-reforms-1242181)

NDTV | Last Updated: November 10, 2015 17:11 (IST)

Today's Chanakya now claims they reason why their exit poll was way off is because they had a software problem where the party code was swapped.  Meaning they really meant to project Grand Alliance at 155 seats as opposed to NDA. I cannot believe they can try to come up with an excuse like this.  It would mean they have zero QA when the result they publish is at complete odds with the raw data they collected.  It also means that other poll results that they have are at odds with their real projection results.  Their own tweets had a clear net majority wanting a change in government.  How can their survey conclude a landslide for Grand Alliance when the same people surveyed desired a change in government by large margins.  I cannot believe they can come up with this excuse with a straight face.

Now that BJP is beaten badly in Bihar, the various NDA allies are coming out of the woodwork asking for their pound of flesh from a weakened BJP.  In Jharkhand where the BJP only has a majority with the AJSU alliance the BJP earlier this year managed to get 6 out of 8 JVM MLAs to defect over to make sure that AJSU cannot blackmail BJP's government.  Now that BJP is beaten it is said that these 6 JVM MLAs are upping their prices in terms of minister-ships or else they will defect back.  AJSU seeing that their leverage is back is forcing the issue with a critical by-election.

Back in 2014 Jharkhand assembly elections, Kamal Kishore Bhagat, a AJSU leader was narrowly elected in Lohardaga beating the INC candidate with BJP support.  Now Bhagat has been convinced of murder from a case from 1993 and will now be sent to jail for seven years which is a shock for AJSU supporters as Bhagat is a fairly popular leader of AJSU.  It seems Bhagat murdered a doctor while trying to blackmail him back in 1993.

Kamal Kishore Bhagat
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This vancency opens up a by-election.  To remain his influence Bhagat decided to marry a nurse Neeru Shanti right before he is about to go to jail.

Wedding between Bhagat and Shanti
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Later, as expected AJSU nominated Neeru Shanti as the AJSU candidate for the by-election.  AJSU also demanded that BJP back and actively campaign for Neeru Shanti or else the AJSU will withdraw support for the BJP government while the 6 JVM MLA defectors are also making noises of more bribes or they will bail too.  INC and JMM plan to contest this by-election together after contesting separately last time allowed AJSU to win this seat. 

So now BJP has a choice to make.  Risk the Jharkhand government or pay blackmail to the 6 JVM MLAs as well as AJSU and at the same time dragging the reputation of the BJP government through the mud.

Official results out.  I grouped them into the 4 alliances.  The Third Front and Left Front did not have perfect alliances as they did seem to have overlapping candidates in the same district.  Of course NCP and NPP left the Third Front in the middle of the election only added to this.  I also looked at the independents and grouped them where I can identify them as rebels of the larges parties so we can get an idea the impact of rebels of all types on their respective alliances.
  

                            Contested                Win                  Vote Share
Grand Alliance            243                   178                      42.91%
 JD(U)                        101                     71                      17.26%
 RJD                           101                     80                      18.82%
 INC                            41                      27                        6.83%

JD(U) rebels                  8                        1                        0.53%
RJD rebels                   10                        0                        0.47%
INC rebels                     4                        0                        0.15%


NDA                          243                     58                       34.95%
 BJP                           157                     53                       25.04%
 LJP                             42                       2                         4.95%
 RLSP                          23                       2                         2.63%
 HAM                           21                       1                         2.33%

BJP rebels                    27                       3                         1.70%
LJP rebels                      6                       0                         0.28%


Third Front                316                      0                          3.03%
 JAP                          109                       0                          1.38%
 SP                            135                      0                          1.04%
 NCP                           41                       0                          0.50%
 SSP                           24                       0                          0.09%
 SJP                             4                        0                          0.01%
 NPP                            3                        0                          0.01%


Left Front                 261                       3                          3.65%
 CPI(ML)(L)                98                        3                          1.58%
 CPI                           98                        0                          1.39%
 CPM                          43                       0                           0.62%
 SUCI                        10                        0                           0.03%
 FBL                            9                        0                           0.02%
 RSP                            3                        0                           0.01%  


BSP                         228                        0                           2.12%
SHS                          73                        0                           0.57%
AIMIM                         6                        0                           0.22%

A lot of Grand Alliance rebels ran Third Front tickets but it does seem that the rebellion in NDA was larger than originally expected and most likely cost them a dozen seats.  BJP also made the mistake, in retrospect, of giving too many seats to allies which failed to carry the BJP core vote or lost votes to BJP rebels.  The independent vote, even after accounting for major party rebels, pull in a lot more votes than expected which meant this election was less polarizing than reported.

Anant Kumar Singh was not renominated by the JD(U) after being put in jail on charges of murder, kidnapping and rape.  He then ran as an independent from behind bars and ran against the official JD(U), LJP, and JAP.  He won with 37.4% of the vote.  It was Anant Kumar Singh 37.4% JD(U) 24.7% JAP 11.5% LJP 10.7%.  It seems that Anant Kumar Singh won because he kept part of the JD(U) vote base, JAP took the Yadav vote which would otherwise have been transferred to JD(U), and Anant Kumar Singh being an upper caste himself took part of the BJP upper caste vote base which was not transferred to the NDA LJP candidate.  So the split of the Grand Alliance and NDA vote base allowed Anant Kumar Singh to get through.  

Tejashwi Yadav, son of Lalu Yadav and age 26 was appointed deputy CM of Bihar.  He used to be a budding cricketer before turning to politics.

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Frontline map on results
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Indian Express map of results
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Indian Express also made a chart similar to my chart on the matrix of contests.  Its main take away ws the same as my "RJD, Cong beat BJP harder than JD(U) does" which implies JD(U) base went over to RJD INC but not the RJD nor INC base when JD(U) is running.
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One last set of statistics I did not get to run through is the vote share of all the parties within the seats they ran for the Grand Alliance and NDA to see the level of vote transfer between allies.  What we find are

Grand Alliance      Seats Contested    Seats won    Vote Share
   JD(U)                      101                      71              40.5%
   RJD                         101                      80              44.2%     
   INC                          41                       27              39.4%

NDA                     Seats Contested    Seats won    Vote Share
   BJP                         157                      53               37.4%
   LJP                           42                        2                28.7%
   RLSP                        23                        2                27.4%
   HAM                         21                        1                26.8%

On the Grand Alliance side part of why INC's vote share is lower is as the weaker ally partner it got lower quality seats from a winnable point of view.  RJD and JD(U) are mostly equal so the vote share difference can mostly be explained by the fact that RJD was less effective at transferring its vote base to JD(U) as opposed to the other way around.  Higher number of RJD rebels as well as some JAP candidates seems to have taken those votes that were meant for JD(U)

On the NDA side it is clear that what made the NDA defeat greater than what it could have been was that the BJP was not effective in transferring its vote base over to its allies.  The large number of BJP rebels as well as the significant votes they captured are a testament to this.